politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP the big gainer with Ipsos-MORI while LAB retains a lea
Comments
-
Oddly enough, the much-criticised Daily Mail article about the Milibands' kitchen hit the nail on the head first time round:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2990810/Why-kitchen-tells-need-know-mirthless-Milibands-s-suggest-Ed-Justine-not-fact-aliens.html
"Surely that can’t really be Ed and Justine’s kitchen? All that lovely huge, fancy house, and that is where they do their cooking?
I hope for their sake that it’s actually their utility room, and that some bossy spin doctor has shoved them in there to make their £2 million-plus townhouse in North London’s trendy Kentish Town look less fabulous and to bolster Ed’s man-o’-the-people image."0 -
To keep the expensive family kitchen off our TV screens, and give the false impression that they live in a normal home rather than a £multi-million smart London townhouse?Richard_Nabavi said:Why were Ed and Justine hiding in the butler's pantry?
0 -
Seems to be par for the course in South Yorkshire.dr_spyn said:Cages about to be rattled, BBC News coverage of SYP & Sheffield City Council, implies things were worse than Rotherham, goes back at least 10 years.
0 -
Delightful... LOLbigjohnowls said:
Not till I lose some of the alcohol from my bloodstream. Mind you Mrs BJ supped me under the table. Could be my lucky night if she is still conscious by the time we get home.RobD said:
Excellent! Any plans for the winnings? More punts??bigjohnowls said:Todays mori EICIPM and 3 winners at Cheltenham
Perfect0 -
Labour do seem to be in some disarray in Halifax:
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/election-politics/politics-and-election-news/labour-row-with-union-is-blamed-for-halifax-delay-1-7145238
http://www.halifaxcourier.co.uk/news/calderdale/departing-halifax-mp-s-warning-to-labour-chiefs-1-7151951
It's a seat they could lose, so it's extraordinary that they don't even have a candidate yet. In fact, they don't even seem to have got to the shortlist stage.0 -
To think that women campaigned and in some cases died for equal rights only for it to be undone by rediculous policies such as all women shortlists.dr_spyn said:Andrea Parma retweeted
James Reed @JamesReedYP 1h1 hour ago
#Labour selection panel has decided #Halifax will be an all-woman shortlist #electionyorks
Quite relevant to today as the best candidate should be selected for the job regardless of sex, race, disability, etc.
0 -
Don't know if someone is waiting for the operation...rcs1000 said:
All woman, or all women?dr_spyn said:Andrea Parma retweeted
James Reed @JamesReedYP 1h1 hour ago
#Labour selection panel has decided #Halifax will be an all-woman shortlist #electionyorks
However another London councillor/assembly member is looking for a seat.
http://labourlist.org/2015/03/halifax-selection-will-be-an-all-women-shortlist/0 -
Lab 4 points up with Ipsos-mori all voters,is that right?has cameron taken down his curtains yet?0
-
My train manager just told us the next station.is Bristol New Street. I thought I was the one who has been on the lash all afternoon0
-
During The Festival Week, a couple of years ago, whilst waiting at Bristol Temple Meads, I saw First Great Western staff helping some befuddled and confused racegoers who were disappointed that they hadn't arrived at the subterranean pit that is Birmingham New St. They had boarded their train at the wrong platform at Cheltenham.bigjohnowls said:My train manager just told us the next station.is Bristol New Street. I thought I was the one who has been on the lash all afternoon
Have a good evening.0 -
UKIP @woodside2010 7m7 minutes ago
@Nigel_Farage
You can't disparage Farage,
he'll only grow and grow
The more they try
The more they'll cry
Chicken Cameron's got to go!0 -
Not sure if I can read... all votersRobD said:
Not sure if you can read, they are actually down 2.SMukesh said:Lab 4 points up with Ipsos-mori all voters,is that right?has cameron taken down his curtains yet?
still.. all voters include those that won't actually vote. So shouldn't be drawing too much comfort from those.0 -
Hey @MikeSmithson or @TheScreamingEagles
Shall we have the leader ratings from this poll in the thread header? x0 -
I am already on that at 6/4, just want to shift this £50@5/2.. I will accept £48MikeK said:
You are on a losing wicket, old chap. I'll bet you £100 evens that UKIP outvote the L/Dems.isam said:A couple of weeks ago I backed Lib Dems to out poll UKIP at 5/2 w Ladbrokes.. £50
They are 9/4 now, if anyone wants to buy the bet off me let me know0 -
Yeah, noticed my mistake and posted again. I'd be interested to see how well the MORI all voters figure just prior to 2010 actually compared with the results.SMukesh said:0 -
Be careful what you ask for "David Cameron has highest satisfaction ratings in latest MORI poll", anyone?isam said:Hey @MikeSmithson or @TheScreamingEagles
Shall we have the leader ratings from this poll in the thread header? x0 -
Bedford has its own religion, the Panaceans, when the rapture comes the world will be destroyed except for Bedford and 30 miles around it which will be saved and go onto a higher existence.Plato said:God created Bedford in Seven Days. I'm surprised you didn't know this.
john_zims said:@MikeSmithson
'Ashcroft & ICM link back to 2010 vote but dilute it to take account of false recall. That is their primary means of political weighting. Are you saying that they might as well make it up?'
What I do find strange is we get told the Lib Dems have done private polling that shows they are 'competitive' in seats like Solihull,two weeks later the data still isn't published and then Survation who apparently carried out the poll,but without any input on the questions, then appear to distance themselves from it.0 -
"Nick Clegg's improved leader ratings are a sign of Lib Dem stubbornness (as are my curmudgeonly thread headers)"RobD said:
Be careful what you ask for "David Cameron has highest satisfaction ratings in latest MORI poll", anyone?isam said:Hey @MikeSmithson or @TheScreamingEagles
Shall we have the leader ratings from this poll in the thread header? x0 -
rcs1000 said:
All woman, or all women?dr_spyn said:Andrea Parma retweeted
James Reed @JamesReedYP 1h1 hour ago
#Labour selection panel has decided #Halifax will be an all-woman shortlist #electionyorks
Post of the dayrcs1000 said:
All woman, or all women?dr_spyn said:Andrea Parma retweeted
James Reed @JamesReedYP 1h1 hour ago
#Labour selection panel has decided #Halifax will be an all-woman shortlist #electionyorks
0 -
isam said:
What's that you say Mike?MikeSmithson said:
FARAGE THE MOST POPULAR LEADER?????
UP 5.5 POINTS ON THE LEADER RATINGS???
FARAGE THE MOST POPULAR YOU SAY MIKE?!
Strictly the least unpopular as they are all in negative territory.0 -
The uncertainty around this election and the possibility of no one being able to form a viable government maybe all three leaders will go and someone will have to form a grand coalition but who.0
-
Mr. NorthWales, can't see that. If it did happen, it'd be fantastic for UKIP (and the SNP).0
-
Any grand coalition would presumably be formed around the conservatives and labour but who would leadMorris_Dancer said:Mr. NorthWales, can't see that. If it did happen, it'd be fantastic for UKIP (and the SNP).
0 -
Applying the L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 7.9%
Con seat lead 67 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 98.9%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 60.7%
Chance of a Tory majority: 39.3%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Looking at the graph, it looks as if the Tories would - had they had the option - have been in a stronger position for a majority with an Autumn or Winter election...
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/L&N.PNG
However, a majority cannot yet be ruled out.
Apply some broad assumptions, and the Tories look set for the 310-320 band. Labour 245-255.0 -
0
-
Would your ARSE be able to withstand 10,000 simulations?JackW said:@RodCrosby
Looking like an ARSE/MonteCarlo axis.
0 -
Waiting for a political party to propose the second kitchen tax....sorry spare kitchen subsidiary.0
-
0
-
The best comment on this so far is from John Rentoul:FrancisUrquhart said:Waiting for a political party to propose the second kitchen tax....sorry spare kitchen subsidiary.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 30m30 minutes ago
EdM knows what it's like not to know where your next meal is coming from.0 -
Chance of EICIPM?RodCrosby said:Applying the L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 7.9%
Con seat lead 67 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 98.9%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 60.7%
Chance of a Tory majority: 39.3%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Looking at the graph, it looks as if the Tories would - had they had the option - have been in a stronger position for a majority with an Autumn or Winter election...
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/L&N.PNG
However, a majority cannot yet be ruled out.
Apply some broad assumptions, and the Tories look set for the 310-320 band. Labour 245-255.0 -
LOLantifrank said:
The best comment on this so far is from John Rentoul:FrancisUrquhart said:Waiting for a political party to propose the second kitchen tax....sorry spare kitchen subsidiary.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 30m30 minutes ago
EdM knows what it's like not to know where your next meal is coming from.0 -
EMWNBPM?RodCrosby said:Applying the L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 7.9%
Con seat lead 67 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 98.9%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 60.7%
Chance of a Tory majority: 39.3%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Looking at the graph, it looks as if the Tories would - had they had the option - have been in a stronger position for a majority with an Autumn or Winter election...
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/L&N.PNG
However, a majority cannot yet be ruled out.
Apply some broad assumptions, and the Tories look set for the 310-320 band. Labour 245-255.
0 -
That's just the L&N model. I dont think Rod has said which model he is going with for this GE yet? (And iirc the L&N model was producing the best numbers for the Tories?)MikeSmithson said:@RodCrosby calls it for the Tories.
Con vote lead 7.9%
Con seat lead 67 seats
0 -
Is it really true that Ed Miliband has two kitchens and showed the kitchenette rather than a more grand kitchen in the recent BBC interview with his family.0
-
In the fleshpots of Monte Carlo anything is possible.Neil said:
Would your ARSE be able to withstand 10,000 simulations?JackW said:@RodCrosby
Looking like an ARSE/MonteCarlo axis.
0 -
An interesting Scotland crossbreak with this poll
SNP 42 Lab 14 Con 29 LD 12 Grn 1
0 -
Less than your chances tonight if Mrs BJO catches up with your earlier posts.bigjohnowls said:
Chance of EICIPM?RodCrosby said:Applying the L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 7.9%
Con seat lead 67 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 98.9%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 60.7%
Chance of a Tory majority: 39.3%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Looking at the graph, it looks as if the Tories would - had they had the option - have been in a stronger position for a majority with an Autumn or Winter election...
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/L&N.PNG
However, a majority cannot yet be ruled out.
Apply some broad assumptions, and the Tories look set for the 310-320 band. Labour 245-255.
0 -
(Just For Fun)
YouGov Prediction:
Lab Lead 2% - EICIPM0 -
LOL she is asleep I think.Unless my unconscious forecast is as accurate as my EICIPM onezNeil said:
Less than your chances tonight if Mrs BJO catches up with your earlier posts.bigjohnowls said:
Chance of EICIPM?RodCrosby said:Applying the L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 7.9%
Con seat lead 67 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 98.9%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 60.7%
Chance of a Tory majority: 39.3%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Looking at the graph, it looks as if the Tories would - had they had the option - have been in a stronger position for a majority with an Autumn or Winter election...
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/L&N.PNG
However, a majority cannot yet be ruled out.
Apply some broad assumptions, and the Tories look set for the 310-320 band. Labour 245-255.0 -
Yup.Big_G_NorthWales said:Is it really true that Ed Miliband has two kitchens and showed the kitchenette rather than a more grand kitchen in the recent BBC interview with his family.
0 -
Upstairs or Downstairs?antifrank said:
The best comment on this so far is from John Rentoul:FrancisUrquhart said:Waiting for a political party to propose the second kitchen tax....sorry spare kitchen subsidiary.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 30m30 minutes ago
EdM knows what it's like not to know where your next meal is coming from.0 -
Current forecast 2015 Tory leads from various models (with change on last month)Neil said:
That's just the L&N model. I dont think Rod has said which model he is going with for this GE yet? (And iirc the L&N model was producing the best numbers for the Tories?)MikeSmithson said:@RodCrosby calls it for the Tories.
Con vote lead 7.9%
Con seat lead 67 seats
2009-2010 repeat: -1.8% down
Byelection swingback: -0.5% n/c
Fisher: 2.9% up
Hanretty: 3.4% up
Prosser: 5.0% n/c
L&N: 7.9% up
The big mover is the 2009-2010 repeat, now moving to a Labour lead. But that "model" has the least statistical justification, imho... (not a model at all, just a random benchmark, really)0 -
Does Rod do Cheltenham?
98% chance of ....... winning Gold Cup0 -
He's going to get a lot of hassle over 'two kitchen ed' I would expectTheWatcher said:
Yup.Big_G_NorthWales said:Is it really true that Ed Miliband has two kitchens and showed the kitchenette rather than a more grand kitchen in the recent BBC interview with his family.
0 -
Very interesting thanks. Brillo looks younger now 20 years on. Wow Savile was a complicated and clever person,he could certainly play an audience,very interesting knowing what we do now.TheWatcher said:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mJ4a0ODPBMRobD said:
The old Andrew Neil interview with Savile is also of interest.FrancisUrquhart said:71-year-old man interviewed on Thursday by detectives from Operation Yewtree is publicist Max Clifford, BBC understands
I highly recommend watching the old Louis Theroux documentaries with the likes of Clifford, Savile, etc, they are really eye opening.0 -
About the same as the chance of a:-bigjohnowls said:
Chance of EICIPM?RodCrosby said:Applying the L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 7.9%
Con seat lead 67 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 98.9%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 60.7%
Chance of a Tory majority: 39.3%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Looking at the graph, it looks as if the Tories would - had they had the option - have been in a stronger position for a majority with an Autumn or Winter election...
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/L&N.PNG
However, a majority cannot yet be ruled out.
Apply some broad assumptions, and the Tories look set for the 310-320 band. Labour 245-255.
Lab/SNP/LD + Allsorts coalition?0 -
Do we think the Sun are currently locked in a big brain storming meeting about what pun to use for the front page? Two Microwave Miliband or could it be Two Aga Ed?0
-
Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.0
-
Didn't see the puff piece so don't know if both kitchens were shown - I would be very surprised if the 'main' kitchen was not well appointed and more fitting for a £2 million home with a family of four. - I wonder why he choose to be filmed there?Big_G_NorthWales said:Is it really true that Ed Miliband has two kitchens and showed the kitchenette rather than a more grand kitchen in the recent BBC interview with his family.
0 -
"Sun". "big brain"FrancisUrquhart said:Do we think the Sun are currently locked in a big brain storming meeting about what pun to use for the front page? Two Microwave Miliband or could it be Two Aga Ed?
Eh?0 -
We're you wrong about January crossover or is it still too early to tell?RodCrosby said:
About the same as the chance of a:-bigjohnowls said:
Chance of EICIPM?RodCrosby said:Applying the L&N model to Ipsos MORI we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 7.9%
Con seat lead 67 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 98.9%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 60.7%
Chance of a Tory majority: 39.3%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Looking at the graph, it looks as if the Tories would - had they had the option - have been in a stronger position for a majority with an Autumn or Winter election...
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/L&N.PNG
However, a majority cannot yet be ruled out.
Apply some broad assumptions, and the Tories look set for the 310-320 band. Labour 245-255.
Lab/SNP/LD + Allsorts coalition?0 -
The problem with the BBC piece on his family only showed a utility - kitchenette and no indication that it wasn't their main kitchen. The revelation it was not their main kitchen was revealed on Guido and it seems very disingenuous to use a kitchenette rather than the kitchenSimonStClare said:
Didn't see the puff piece so don't know if both kitchens were shown - I would be very surprised if the 'main' kitchen was not well appointed and more fitting for a £2 million home with a family of four. - I wonder why he choose to be filmed there?Big_G_NorthWales said:Is it really true that Ed Miliband has two kitchens and showed the kitchenette rather than a more grand kitchen in the recent BBC interview with his family.
0 -
What with the Hillsborough Inquiry revelations, makes one really wonder about SYP. Disbandment, takeover must be on the cards.Alanbrooke said:
Seems to be par for the course in South Yorkshire.dr_spyn said:Cages about to be rattled, BBC News coverage of SYP & Sheffield City Council, implies things were worse than Rotherham, goes back at least 10 years.
0 -
Actually it wasn't Staines, Jenni Russell, friends of Miliband, dropped them in it, trying to defend Miliband's over bitchy article by Sarah Vine in the Mail.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem with the BBC piece on his family only showed a utility - kitchenette and no indication that it wasn't their main kitchen. The revelation it was not their main kitchen was revealed on Guido and it seems very disingenuous to use a kitchenette rather than the kitchenSimonStClare said:
Didn't see the puff piece so don't know if both kitchens were shown - I would be very surprised if the 'main' kitchen was not well appointed and more fitting for a £2 million home with a family of four. - I wonder why he choose to be filmed there?Big_G_NorthWales said:Is it really true that Ed Miliband has two kitchens and showed the kitchenette rather than a more grand kitchen in the recent BBC interview with his family.
It is all a bit pathetic tbh, but again like tax avoidance, Miliband has been rather pious about photo ops and spin.0 -
I saw that, on Look North. They had an interview with a police officer who said, on camera, that his bosses knew about the exploitation, but told him to inform the victims they would not prosecute the alleged culprits. They also had some quotes from the South Yorkshire police which, to me, seemed pretty dismissive.dr_spyn said:Cages about to be rattled, BBC News coverage of SYP & Sheffield City Council, implies things were worse than Rotherham, goes back at least 10 years.
I don't recall any mention of Sheffield City Council in the report, but if the allegations are confirmed they'll have to explain what they knew when.
0 -
It doesn't look goodFrancisUrquhart said:
Actually it wasn't Staines, Jenni Russell, friends of Miliband, dropped them in it, trying to defend Miliband's over bitchy article by Sarah Vine in the Mail.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem with the BBC piece on his family only showed a utility - kitchenette and no indication that it wasn't their main kitchen. The revelation it was not their main kitchen was revealed on Guido and it seems very disingenuous to use a kitchenette rather than the kitchenSimonStClare said:
Didn't see the puff piece so don't know if both kitchens were shown - I would be very surprised if the 'main' kitchen was not well appointed and more fitting for a £2 million home with a family of four. - I wonder why he choose to be filmed there?Big_G_NorthWales said:Is it really true that Ed Miliband has two kitchens and showed the kitchenette rather than a more grand kitchen in the recent BBC interview with his family.
It is all a bit pathetic tbh, but again like tax avoidance, Miliband has been rather pious about photo ops and spin.0 -
Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.justin124 said:Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.
About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.
*of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".0 -
Thanks for that. Also worth bearing in mind that in 1970 the 8 Ulster Unionists were included in the Tory total.RodCrosby said:
Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.justin124 said:Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.
About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.
*of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".0 -
Lab most seats out to 3.0 on BF. (longest-ever)0
-
It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.RodCrosby said:
Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.justin124 said:Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.
About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.
*of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".0 -
Looking more like a floor than a ceiling, to me...Casino_Royale said:
It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.RodCrosby said:
Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.justin124 said:Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.
About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.
*of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".0 -
Viagra substitute found in Tesco.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Dad-buys-Tesco-bananas-infested-spiders-bite/story-26159702-detail/story.html0 -
This talk of two kitchens reminds me of Cameron's amnesia about exactly how many houses he owns? This is a bit different from having a family kitchen and a kitchenette, lots of older houses have that feature.The larger kitchens were sometimes called 'morning rooms.' Poor old Sarah Vine must be scratching around for material if that is all she has to write about, poor woman.0
-
Back from two 11-hour flights in 3 days to find things much as before. O/T must give a plug to the Seoul Asiana staff - after the airport bus took forever (the chauffeur got out twice to do physical exercises!), two of them literally sprinted to whisk me through security and get me to the plane with a couple of minutes to spare. The plane over was amazingly empty about 85% of seats free, so economy class felt luxurious), though the return journey was packed. Asiana is much cheaper than British Airways for Korea and the service seems more or less indistinguishable.0
-
Perhaps. I'd want to see consistent 4-5% Tory leads before I believe that. If we have that by the end of the month then, yes, possibly.RodCrosby said:
Looking more like a floor than a ceiling, to me...Casino_Royale said:
It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.RodCrosby said:
Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.justin124 said:Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.
About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.
*of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".0 -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-11/passport-king-christian-kalin-helps-nations-sell-citizenship
Really interesting article and again shows that countries acting alone in this globalized world wont be able to really change much when it comes to the uber wealthy.0 -
Guido Fawkes retweeted
Giles Coren @gilescoren 24m24 minutes ago
Ed: "where are my fucking car keys?"
Justine: "in the kitchen!"
Ed: "which fucking kitchen?"0 -
One nation, two kitchens, we're all in it togetherroserees64 said:This talk of two kitchens reminds me of Cameron's amnesia about exactly how many houses he owns? This is a bit different from having a family kitchen and a kitchenette, lots of older houses have that feature.The larger kitchens were sometimes called 'morning rooms.' Poor old Sarah Vine must be scratching around for material if that is all she has to write about, poor woman.
0 -
Wasn't the pink bus on a kitchen table tour? I now know what that means.0
-
If you can't stand the heat then get out of the kitchen.nigel4england said:
One nation, two kitchens, we're all in it togetherroserees64 said:This talk of two kitchens reminds me of Cameron's amnesia about exactly how many houses he owns? This is a bit different from having a family kitchen and a kitchenette, lots of older houses have that feature.The larger kitchens were sometimes called 'morning rooms.' Poor old Sarah Vine must be scratching around for material if that is all she has to write about, poor woman.
But which one ?0 -
Unnamed Insider @Unnamedinsider 5m5 minutes ago
#askmiliband your mum must be very proud of her successful son. Does that ever make you jealous?0 -
If the 2013 boundaries had been passed I'd agree the Tories would be in with a very good chance of a majority. Losing that vote really was a big deal for them.0
-
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 14s14 seconds ago
Q Do you regret stabbing your brother in the back?
A That's not the way I'd describe it #AskMiliband
its going well...0 -
I agree with that. Consistent 4-5% leads across the pollsters will surely signify CON most seats & sniffing a majority.Casino_Royale said:
Perhaps. I'd want to see consistent 4-5% Tory leads before I believe that. If we have that by the end of the month then, yes, possibly.RodCrosby said:
Looking more like a floor than a ceiling, to me...Casino_Royale said:
It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.RodCrosby said:
Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.justin124 said:Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.
About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.
*of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".
Real problem for blues are the LD seats they have to pick up and defending at least 2 seats where serious campaign going on.
0 -
The bring back Clarkson petition now has over 783,600 signatures.0
-
-
The polls could be understating the Tories/overstating Labour of course.
0 -
On Question Time tonight with one of the most left wing panels they've ever had. Not a single red meat right winger on the show.macisback said:0 -
how is it Ed Miliband has four one hour programs on BBC3, surely this is against BBC impartiality rules?? along with the interview with his wife, the bias is blatant0
-
Tory hysteria reaches new heights. Heads have once again exploded feathers everywhere as they run amok in Downing Street
'Goebbels would be proud!' Tory fury over Nigel Farage's call to discriminate between workers
David Cameron leads condemnation of UKIP leader, who insists call for more discrimination has been misinterpreted
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11468717/Goebbels-would-be-proud-Tory-fury-over-Nigel-Farages-call-to-discriminate-between-workers.html
Don't Tories understand the difference between nationality and race?
Although perhaps it is this that has got them spitting feathers. Farage in the Indy:
I’m afraid that what this incident has really shown us is that the mainstream establishment, including the press and the media, are perhaps racist themselves. Because when I said “British” they heard “white”, and set a course for the media narrative to pretend I made a distinction between people of different skin colours. This is their own, inbuilt racism. And it’s shameful.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/its-not-me-whos-ignorant--its-everyone-who-took-against-what-i-said-about-racial-discrimination-10104043.html
I'm sure Goebbels would have been proud of the Tory conflation........0 -
I think Miliband is doing OK actually. There seems to be a Labour section in the audience who are whooping and clapping a lotdr_spyn said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 14s14 seconds ago
Q Do you regret stabbing your brother in the back?
A That's not the way I'd describe it #AskMiliband
its going well...0 -
But to make a point that you have alluded to yourself, if Labour were to be 4 - 5% adrift of the Tories in GB as a whole it would still tend to imply a Con to Lab swing in England of about 2.5% - if we assume that a collapse in Scotland has knocked 1.5% off its national vote share. Such a swing could still hand Labour 30 or so Tory seats - plus 6 - 10 LibDem seats.MikeSmithson said:
I agree with that. Consistent 4-5% leads across the pollsters will surely signify CON most seats & sniffing a majority.Casino_Royale said:
Perhaps. I'd want to see consistent 4-5% Tory leads before I believe that. If we have that by the end of the month then, yes, possibly.RodCrosby said:
Looking more like a floor than a ceiling, to me...Casino_Royale said:
It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.RodCrosby said:
Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.justin124 said:Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.
About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.
*of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".
Real problem for blues are the LD seats they have to pick up and defending at least 2 seats where serious campaign going on.
0 -
That's the reason I can't stand to watch many of these things. Cringeworthy....Garethofthevale said:
I think Miliband is doing OK actually. There seems to be a Labour section in the audience who are whooping and clapping a lotdr_spyn said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 14s14 seconds ago
Q Do you regret stabbing your brother in the back?
A That's not the way I'd describe it #AskMiliband
its going well...0 -
Nigel Farage was asked specifically whether he would scrap regulation based on race or colour, and he said he would.Hengists_Gift said:Tory hysteria reaches new heights. Heads have once again exploded feathers everywhere as they run amok in Downing Street
'Goebbels would be proud!' Tory fury over Nigel Farage's call to discriminate between workers
David Cameron leads condemnation of UKIP leader, who insists call for more discrimination has been misinterpreted
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11468717/Goebbels-would-be-proud-Tory-fury-over-Nigel-Farages-call-to-discriminate-between-workers.html
Don't Tories understand the difference between nationality and race?
Although perhaps it is this that has got them spitting feathers. Farage in the Indy:
I’m afraid that what this incident has really shown us is that the mainstream establishment, including the press and the media, are perhaps racist themselves. Because when I said “British” they heard “white”, and set a course for the media narrative to pretend I made a distinction between people of different skin colours. This is their own, inbuilt racism. And it’s shameful.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/its-not-me-whos-ignorant--its-everyone-who-took-against-what-i-said-about-racial-discrimination-10104043.html
I'm sure Goebbels would have been proud of the Tory conflation........
Of course, the Telegraph is (perhaps willfully) misreporting the matter when it states that Farage was calling for discrimination.0 -
What do you think the two are, Mike? Watford and OW&A?MikeSmithson said:
I agree with that. Consistent 4-5% leads across the pollsters will surely signify CON most seats & sniffing a majority.Casino_Royale said:
Perhaps. I'd want to see consistent 4-5% Tory leads before I believe that. If we have that by the end of the month then, yes, possibly.RodCrosby said:
Looking more like a floor than a ceiling, to me...Casino_Royale said:
It loooks to me like the Tories will get pretty close to 300 seats now.RodCrosby said:
Yes, according to L&N's original paper, the Tories did a little better than "forecast"* in 1970.justin124 said:Is it possible for RodCrosby to tell us what the outcome of the 1970 election would have been on the basis of L&N? I ask that simply because I recall that as an election when Wilson ran very strongly in relation to Heath.
About 1% larger vote lead, and 11 seats greater seat lead.
*of course the model wasn't in existence in 1970, but they used "out-of-sample" techniques to simulate the "forecast".
Real problem for blues are the LD seats they have to pick up and defending at least 2 seats where serious campaign going on.0 -
I miss the like buttondr_spyn said:Unnamed Insider @Unnamedinsider 5m5 minutes ago
#askmiliband your mum must be very proud of her successful son. Does that ever make you jealous?
0 -
I see on a local forum this post from one bemused recipient of the long campaign direct mail blitz:
"Talking about spending money on fancy leaflets!! We have had 4 addressed leaflets through the post today from the conservatives!! One leaflet would have sufficed! Shiny or otherwise!"
Is there any research on the point (if any) at which DMs and leaflets are actually overkill and put people off?0
