politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the polls performed the last time a charismatic, Eton-e

coolagorna said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Populus

Con 32 (+1) Lab 33 (nc) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 15 (-1) Greens 6 (+1)

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_09-03-2015_BPC.pdf

Debate-gate outrage....oh...

You think 32% is a good score for the Tories?

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

England are a disgrace.

Bring back Jade Dernbach and Alistair Cook

Too early to suggest that a defeat here might be the best thing in the medium term ?

We said that in 1996, 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011

Schofield Report won us two Ashes series.

Moores is the Graham Taylor of cricket management.

Do I not like that.

Geoffrey Boycott - can you hear me... ?

The most painful thing about this is, we in part agreed to reschedule this winter's Ashes series, to last winter, to give us a better chance in the world cup.

That turned out well.

Great news is that Root is being rested for the Windies test series.

Because all the other top teams do that.

At least we're bringing back Trotty.

England will win this match by 5 wickets.

Pulpstar said:

Carnyx said:

Easterross said:

antifrank said:

NickPalmer said:

Perhaps contra-intuitively, upbeat Scottish Labour conference:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11457973/Rumours-of-Scottish-Labours-demise-are-premature.html

Another mention of tactical voting in favour of Scottish Labour. Now all we need is to see the slightest trace of that in the polls.

The only people who are talking about SLAB being saved by tactical voting are the London chatterati. I don't know a single Scots Tory who would cross the street to save a Labour politician from defeat. They have vilified us for far too long for us to give a shit what happens to Murphy and chums.

I've seen a comment that only 3 prospective Tory to Lab tactical voters out of, I assume, ca. 1000 sampled could be found in Jim Murphy's seat in the Ashcroft poll - and that is one with a high Tory content. Though when I looked at the data I couldn't confirm this. Might be worth a look by someone else as that is one area where if you believe the likes of the London chatterati (and to be fair, IIRC, some of the more pro_Labour/Union media in Scotland), the Tories should be lapping up Mr Murphy and SLAB as their saviours.

Why on earth would Scottish Tories help Labour out. The Lib Dems - I can see an argument for it perhaps around the Highlands... particularly with Danny. But Scottish Conservatism will be well served long term by the destruction of Scottish Labour/Lib Dems. I mean if both Scots Lab and Scots Lib Dem are mullered on the night then they may well both push to the left of the SNP leaving a gaping hole in what one could consider the natural UK centre ground for the Conservatives to fill. That could long term lead to three or four seats

I think @Easteross is more typical of the average Scots voter on this than @DavidL.

Theuniondivvie said:

Alanbrooke said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Alistair, the SNP isn't Scotland.

Funny, the Tories (even Scottish ones) don't seem to be arsed about making the distinction.

'To borrow the most incendiary saying of all: If Scotland rules England, I can foresee the Thames foaming with much blood'

http://tinyurl.com/lk4aou9

Aww shucks divvie don't you read my posts any more ?

PS how's the job front ?

Course I do, but can't be on 24hr tenterhooks!

Had a couple of interviews plus another couple this week and next week, thanks for asking. Not getting an overwhelming sense of demand for my talents, not sure if the Yes badges and face paint help in interview situations.

Unfortunately my mother's dementia is really starting to kick in so am seriously thinking about putting career plans (such as they are) on hold.

rcs1000 said:

This comparison is not meaningful. In no way can Cameron be described as charismatic.

antifrank said:

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

Labour may have stumbled into finding a powerful opponent for George Galloway. Courtesy of Patrick Wintour on twitter, this has to be read:

http://urban-echo.co.uk/exclusive-bradford-west-labour-candidate-naz-shah-reveals-all/

I hope that she makes it to Parliament, because she could add so much to debates that for many in Parliament are purely theoretical.

Not because you're on her at 1-3 ?

Well, that I am (though I hadn't realised when I placed the bet that Labour were going to be quite so shambolic in this constituency). But even if I had no money on her, I would still want her in Parliament so that her experiences could inform public debate.

Indigo said:

Smarmeron said:

@Indigo
All our borrowing has been pissed against the wall for many years, and borrowing doesn't actually fall.
What you need to do to cover this fact is to grow our economy, or, you can choose to inflate it, and hope no one notices.
The problem with the latter is that people are getting better and better at noticing this, and it means that "corrections" happen far more frequently.

I would be highly surprised if our economy grows enough, we are on the wrong side of the productivity curve compared to most of the developing world, who are both more productive and cheaper than us. We used to have a technology advantage, but largely we now don't (just consider where all the cutting edge Apple gear is made, and 90% of the laptops in the world).

Globalisation was always going to have winners and losers, the third world is a winner, standards of living there are improving by the day, that is because money and work is moving there, and it is moving there from the first world, ie from us.

The only plausible way we are going to match them on productivity is a substantial fall in the standard of our living, our productivity is falling because we are getting culturally lazy and that is almost impossible to change. Education is unlikely to improve, and if Labour get back in power is will get a whole lot worse as the blob take back all the improvements made under Gove.

Alanbrooke said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alanbrooke said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Alistair, the SNP isn't Scotland.

Funny, the Tories (even Scottish ones) don't seem to be arsed about making the distinction.

'To borrow the most incendiary saying of all: If Scotland rules England, I can foresee the Thames foaming with much blood'

http://tinyurl.com/lk4aou9

Aww shucks divvie don't you read my posts any more ?

PS how's the job front ?

Course I do, but can't be on 24hr tenterhooks!

Had a couple of interviews plus another couple this week and next week, thanks for asking. Not getting an overwhelming sense of demand for my talents, not sure if the Yes badges and face paint help in interview situations.

Unfortunately my mother's dementia is really starting to kick in so am seriously thinking about putting career plans (such as they are) on hold.

Sorry to hear that divvie, good luck hunting.

My father had Parkinsons so a similar position to your mother, not that easy to manage. I was fortunate in that my brother gave up work to look after him, the most I could help out was giving him a break from care ( he has friends in Glasgow and would go to the Scottish cup final !) . But I don't think he ever regretted doing it and he's now back in work. I suspect given the state of my MiL it'll be my turn in the near future.

Maybe I can teach her to blog ?

I don't come to mock Ed Miliband's shiny new TV-Debate-or-Prison law, though it deserves mockery, as much as does its author.

More than mockery is required, because Miliband's proposal is so much worse than buffoonery. It's a revealing slip, the more so because I doubt the Labour leader has the psychological machinery to comprehend why his proposal found few supporters, other than among the robo-human replicants supplied by Len McCluskey to stand in place of actual Labour candidates around the country (sorry, "this great nation of ours"). It's that psychological deficit which is so politically fatal.

David Cameron would be put on trial for refusing to take part in televised party leader election debates in accordance with the wishes of the broadcasters, if Ed Miliband has his way.

If we make the charitable assumption that this is not just a stunt, we can say it corresponds to the default position of socialists that whatever they think is good should be made compulsory. Perhaps Mr Miliband will later propose that watching the debates should also become mandatory.

coolagorna said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

antifrank said:

Courtesy of John Rentoul on Twitter:

http://www.northampton-news-hp.co.uk/8203-Northampton-Labour-candidate-rejects-1-000/story-26138966-detail/story.html

This seems to be becoming a trend. After the election, I wonder whether we will see differential performance by these Labour candidates, and if so in which direction.

The candidates are idiots, Blair is the reason Labour were able to win seats in places like Northamptonshire in the first place.

Well done Sally Keeble

You on the other hand appear to think accepting the blood money of
war criminals is an acceptable funding method for candidates

You dont seem to realise most Labour activists and supporters
hate Blair as much as they hate Cameron

antifrank said:

Labour may have stumbled into finding a powerful opponent for George Galloway. Courtesy of Patrick Wintour on twitter, this has to be read:

http://urban-echo.co.uk/exclusive-bradford-west-labour-candidate-naz-shah-reveals-all/

I hope that she makes it to Parliament, because she could add so much to debates that for many in Parliament are purely theoretical.

Scott_P said:

I don't come to mock Ed Miliband's shiny new TV-Debate-or-Prison law, though it deserves mockery, as much as does its author.

More than mockery is required, because Miliband's proposal is so much worse than buffoonery. It's a revealing slip, the more so because I doubt the Labour leader has the psychological machinery to comprehend why his proposal found few supporters, other than among the robo-human replicants supplied by Len McCluskey to stand in place of actual Labour candidates around the country (sorry, "this great nation of ours"). It's that psychological deficit which is so politically fatal.

David Cameron would be put on trial for refusing to take part in televised party leader election debates in accordance with the wishes of the broadcasters, if Ed Miliband has his way.

If we make the charitable assumption that this is not just a stunt, we can say it corresponds to the default position of socialists that whatever they think is good should be made compulsory. Perhaps Mr Miliband will later propose that watching the debates should also become mandatory.

isam said:

Headlines if England bt Bangadesh

'Jos is Giant'

'Jossies pygmies'

'I love you Buttler'

'The Buttler did it'

Smarmeron said:

@Hengists_Gift
Dave desperately wanted the debates to take place, he is on record both before and after the last election as saying they were an essential part of democracy?
Unfortunately, despite his best efforts to afford the public this boon, the broadcasters and other parties have been unreasonable.
The way forward would logically be to enshrine a framework that would stop such a terrible amount of party politicking and broadcaster shenanigans in future?
Or perhaps Dave has decided that the debates are no longer good for democracy, and has reverse ferreted on his previously deeply held convictions?
Still, none few of the papers will ask him such troubling questions, so all is well.
(Broadcasters might hold a different view, but I am sure he can avoid troublesome televised interviews)

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

Headlines if England bt Bangadesh

'Jos is Giant'

'Jossies pygmies'

'I love you Buttler'

'The Buttler did it'

Got to be 'Buttler done it'

Ooer...

CJs in

' I didn't get where I am today by knocking off the runs against World Cup minnows...'

TheScreamingEagles said:

England shafted by the officials in this tournament.

Denied us victory against the Aussies.

Now this.

Pulpstar said:

Butler's set us up nicely here. Should be able to see this out.

coolagorna said:

Indigo said:

coolagorna said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Populus

Con 32 (+1) Lab 33 (nc) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 15 (-1) Greens 6 (+1)

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_09-03-2015_BPC.pdf

Debate-gate outrage....oh...

You think 32% is a good score for the Tories?

Come off it, it's a MoE movement as have just about all Tory movements since Christmas.

Yes I know..just saying if the Tory PBs are cracking open the
bubbly at a poll rating of 32% after 5 months of non stop media
Mili bashing and "good" economic news propoganda..they must
be even more desperate than.I thought

As the I says senior Tories are in despair at their poll ratings
and turning on Crosby for his negative strategy