politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Does this explain the Tory optimism about May

Incidentally I'm starting to get the feeling that the cosnervative vote is going to drop a couple of percentage points in Scotland.

I was initially very sceptical of if moving from 16% but I feel from the weight of polling that a down grade of a percent or two might be justified.

Todays Populus - EICIPM

Hengists_Gift said:

Green Party conference in tweets from Sky:

http://news.sky.com/story/1439888/sophy-ridge-green-party-conference-in-tweets

Already we have a u-turn on transport policy (they realised it would make just about all cars illegal) and a statement declaring an effective political fatwa against the Tories.

In practice does that mean they will vote tactically for whichever party can beat the Tories in a particular seat? Definitely a question for Natalie Bennett......

The Greens can't endorse anti-Tory tactical voting. The LDs have been their best source of new support, and 40% of current LDs are considering voting Green too.

p.4
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/42tha4tjwo/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-270215.pdf

Alistair said:

antifrank said:

Alistair said:

antifrank said:

DavidL said:

I would think the Scottish tories will end up with 2 seats namely their current one and Berwickshire. I think they will be very close in Dumfries and Galloway and possibly in Kincardine but they risk being overtaken by the SNP in both seats.

A pretty poor return for nearly 500K votes but that is the way it goes up here.

The latest Scottish constituency polls for Lord Ashcroft are stunningly good for the SNP and stunningly bad for everyone else, the Conservatives included. I'm having a complete rethink about the outcome in Scotland and if I can get my thoughts together, I'll be putting another post up over the weekend.

It should start with "...anyone who was thinking of laying off their SNP bets is a moron"

When the facts change, I change my opinions.

I don't think it has yet generally sunk in just how sensational the latest batch of Scottish constituency polls are and how they blew apart the emerging consensus of what the SNP coalition looks like.

I solidly include myself in the moron camp. MY GE15 game prediction of 52 SNP seats is no longer looking like a high end punt to win the competition and more like a conservative estimate.

I am still mentally subtracting 5 percentage points from any SNP lead in a constituency but that still leaves them with whaking great leads

I think your thoughts on Tuesday night were eminently sensible in the light of the information we had at the time. We have a lot of new and unexpected information. None of us are blessed with perfect foresight, or political betting would be very straightforward.

52 SNP MPs looks something like the par outcome as of today's date. When I put my post on hypothetical hung Parliament negotiations together in early December, I used 31 MPs as my high end estimate for the SNP and thought I was being quite racy. Now it would be a real disappointment for the SNP.

I've analysed the last 10 Yougovs

And I've found some great news for the Lib Dems

The 5% score was a 2 SD outlier.

No other outliers in the dataset thus far...

TheScreamingEagles said:

BenM said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Latest Populus

Con 31 (-1) Lab 33 (-1) LD 8 (nc) UKIP 16 (+2) Greens 5 (nc)

http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_06-03-2015_BPC.pdf

Lab end the week ahead.

Who knew?

The big two talked about Immigration and they go down and UKIP go up.

There's a lesson in that. Or it is just MOE.

Or a reaction against troops being sent to Ukraine and the flashbacks to the Blair years that engenders. Easy to insert one's hobby horse as the reason.

antifrank said:

Alistair said:

antifrank said:

Alistair said:

antifrank said:

DavidL said:

I would think the Scottish tories will end up with 2 seats namely their current one and Berwickshire. I think they will be very close in Dumfries and Galloway and possibly in Kincardine but they risk being overtaken by the SNP in both seats.

A pretty poor return for nearly 500K votes but that is the way it goes up here.

The latest Scottish constituency polls for Lord Ashcroft are stunningly good for the SNP and stunningly bad for everyone else, the Conservatives included. I'm having a complete rethink about the outcome in Scotland and if I can get my thoughts together, I'll be putting another post up over the weekend.

It should start with "...anyone who was thinking of laying off their SNP bets is a moron"

When the facts change, I change my opinions.

I don't think it has yet generally sunk in just how sensational the latest batch of Scottish constituency polls are and how they blew apart the emerging consensus of what the SNP coalition looks like.

I solidly include myself in the moron camp. MY GE15 game prediction of 52 SNP seats is no longer looking like a high end punt to win the competition and more like a conservative estimate.

I am still mentally subtracting 5 percentage points from any SNP lead in a constituency but that still leaves them with whaking great leads

I think your thoughts on Tuesday night were eminently sensible in the light of the information we had at the time. We have a lot of new and unexpected information. None of us are blessed with perfect foresight, or political betting would be very straightforward.

52 SNP MPs looks something like the par outcome as of today's date. When I put my post on hypothetical hung Parliament negotiations together in early December, I used 31 MPs as my high end estimate for the SNP and thought I was being quite racy. Now it would be a real disappointment for the SNP.

Elections are usually predictable. What looks like a big shift (such as the SDP surge) will usually dissipate. So, people tend to be cautious in the face of the big changes (I only had the SNP at 33 seats in my prediction).

The rise of the SNP, the collapse of the Lib Dems, and the rise of UKIP all make this far more unpredictable than usual.

TheWatcher said:

OldKingCole said:

bigjohnowls said:

BBC Radio Sheffield ‏@BBCSheffield 44s44 seconds ago
Doncaster based sofa chain DFS is back trading on the stock market after a 10 year absence

It is significantly longer since it did not have a sale on

There are a number things about finance I don't understand, although I've a fair grasp of the basics of retailing. However the economics of the furniture trade are a total mystery .

The money's made from the finance, not necessarily from the product sold.

That I know, but the product has got to be bought at some point. If you offer 0% credit , spread over 4 years....
How can that work. Unless, of course either the margin on sale is gigantic or it's someone's way of losing money!

stodge said:

Sean_F said:

Now that Populus is in, I should think that the UKPR average will have Conservative and Labour on 33% apiece.

I was immediately struck by the statistic that 62% of men are certain to vote but only 48% of women. Men put Labour three points ahead while women have the duopoly level.

While it's typical for don't knows to be more common among women, it's unusual to see much of a gender gap.

A simple average of the past fortnight's polls has Conservative 33.0%, Labour 33.4% UKIP 14.4%.. I'm surprised at how resilient the UKIP vote has been.

Not too long away, it would have been assumed that a UKIP vote of 14.4% would have the Conservatives well below 30%.

OldKingCole said:

TheWatcher said:

OldKingCole said:

bigjohnowls said:

BBC Radio Sheffield ‏@BBCSheffield 44s44 seconds ago
Doncaster based sofa chain DFS is back trading on the stock market after a 10 year absence

It is significantly longer since it did not have a sale on

There are a number things about finance I don't understand, although I've a fair grasp of the basics of retailing. However the economics of the furniture trade are a total mystery .

The money's made from the finance, not necessarily from the product sold.

That I know, but the product has got to be bought at some point. If you offer 0% credit , spread over 4 years....
How can that work. Unless, of course either the margin on sale is gigantic or it's someone's way of losing money!

That's cheating, (LOL) altering a post after it's been quoted. However, the comparison seems reasonable. Of course one never takes a sofa away from a salesroom, although I've driven a new car away.

Sean_F said:

peter_from_putney said:

Stephen Fisher's updated weekly projection of 2015 GE seats reflects the Tories' recent modest improvement in the polls, showing them winning 286 seats (+7 compared with last week) with Labour winning 278 (-5 seats) and the LibDems on 22 (-1) seats. The Tories are now shown as having a 55% chance of being the largest party with Labour on 45%.
There is an 86% chance of a Hung Parliament

If the outcome on the day really was Conservative 34.4%, Labour 31.5%, I suspect the gap in terms of seats would be bigger than that.

An interesting thought is if the collapse in Lib Dem support is real, that could mean the Tories pick up 14-16 Lib Dem seats rather than 8-10. That'd then give the Tories a net seat advantage from that collapse over Labour, which currently looks more even-Steven and balancing each other out.

Even a handful of seats could make all the difference. But it won't make it much easier for them to govern as they'll be bereft of allies to get them close to the 325 seat line.

Tissue_Price said:

antifrank said:

DavidL said:

I would think the Scottish tories will end up with 2 seats namely their current one and Berwickshire. I think they will be very close in Dumfries and Galloway and possibly in Kincardine but they risk being overtaken by the SNP in both seats.

A pretty poor return for nearly 500K votes but that is the way it goes up here.

The latest Scottish constituency polls for Lord Ashcroft are stunningly good for the SNP and stunningly bad for everyone else, the Conservatives included. I'm having a complete rethink about the outcome in Scotland and if I can get my thoughts together, I'll be putting another post up over the weekend.

One senior figure said: “We really need to forget about places like Airdrie and Shotts or Margaret Curran’s seat [Glasgow East]. We have probably lost those. We should probably hold on to Willie’s [Bain] seat [Glasgow North East]. At this rate he will be the next Scottish secretary because there will be nobody else left standing.”

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-labour-in-civil-war-over-strategy-1-3710887

Airdrie & Shotts and Glasgow NE being marginal seats is not something I expected to see in my lifetime.

Alistair said:

Tissue_Price said:

antifrank said:

DavidL said:

I would think the Scottish tories will end up with 2 seats namely their current one and Berwickshire. I think they will be very close in Dumfries and Galloway and possibly in Kincardine but they risk being overtaken by the SNP in both seats.

A pretty poor return for nearly 500K votes but that is the way it goes up here.

The latest Scottish constituency polls for Lord Ashcroft are stunningly good for the SNP and stunningly bad for everyone else, the Conservatives included. I'm having a complete rethink about the outcome in Scotland and if I can get my thoughts together, I'll be putting another post up over the weekend.

One senior figure said: “We really need to forget about places like Airdrie and Shotts or Margaret Curran’s seat [Glasgow East]. We have probably lost those. We should probably hold on to Willie’s [Bain] seat [Glasgow North East]. At this rate he will be the next Scottish secretary because there will be nobody else left standing.”

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-labour-in-civil-war-over-strategy-1-3710887

As someone who punted some extra money on SNP to take Curran's seat a few weeks ago that makes me happy.

Shott dead

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

peter_from_putney said:

Stephen Fisher's updated weekly projection of 2015 GE seats reflects the Tories' recent modest improvement in the polls, showing them winning 286 seats (+7 compared with last week) with Labour winning 278 (-5 seats) and the LibDems on 22 (-1) seats. The Tories are now shown as having a 55% chance of being the largest party with Labour on 45%.
There is an 86% chance of a Hung Parliament

If the outcome on the day really was Conservative 34.4%, Labour 31.5%, I suspect the gap in terms of seats would be bigger than that.

An interesting thought is if the collapse in Lib Dem support is real, that could mean the Tories pick up 14-16 Lib Dem seats rather than 8-10. That'd then give the Tories a net seat advantage from that collapse over Labour, which currently looks more even-Steven and balancing each other out.

Even a handful of seats could make all the difference. But it won't make it much easier for them to govern as they'll be bereft of allies to get them close to the 325 seat line.

*If* the Conservatives can get to 295 seats, it's hard to see any viable government being formed that doesn't include them. But, they would find it very hard to govern, so far short of 325.

stodge said:

Sean_F said:

stodge said:

Sean_F said:

Now that Populus is in, I should think that the UKPR average will have Conservative and Labour on 33% apiece.

I was immediately struck by the statistic that 62% of men are certain to vote but only 48% of women. Men put Labour three points ahead while women have the duopoly level.

While it's typical for don't knows to be more common among women, it's unusual to see much of a gender gap.

A simple average of the past fortnight's polls has Conservative 33.0%, Labour 33.4% UKIP 14.4%.. I'm surprised at how resilient the UKIP vote has been.

Not too long away, it would have been assumed that a UKIP vote of 14.4% would have the Conservatives well below 30%.

I've kept an eye on the CON-UKIP share over the past two or three years. It's generally in the range 46-49% - I've seen it as high as 51% and as low as 43%. I tend to regard polls which don't have the share within the 46-49 range with caution.

I'd agree with that. I'd put the combined Labour/Green share on 38-42%.

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

peter_from_putney said:

Stephen Fisher's updated weekly projection of 2015 GE seats reflects the Tories' recent modest improvement in the polls, showing them winning 286 seats (+7 compared with last week) with Labour winning 278 (-5 seats) and the LibDems on 22 (-1) seats. The Tories are now shown as having a 55% chance of being the largest party with Labour on 45%.
There is an 86% chance of a Hung Parliament

If the outcome on the day really was Conservative 34.4%, Labour 31.5%, I suspect the gap in terms of seats would be bigger than that.

An interesting thought is if the collapse in Lib Dem support is real, that could mean the Tories pick up 14-16 Lib Dem seats rather than 8-10. That'd then give the Tories a net seat advantage from that collapse over Labour, which currently looks more even-Steven and balancing each other out.

Even a handful of seats could make all the difference. But it won't make it much easier for them to govern as they'll be bereft of allies to get them close to the 325 seat line.

*If* the Conservatives can get to 295 seats, it's hard to see any viable government being formed that doesn't include them. But, they would find it very hard to govern, so far short of 325.

How do you think they would try and cut it, Sean? Minority, DUP and/or LD C&S, or just make every vote a confidence vote? Do you think they'd survive?

C & S from the Lib Dems and DUP is the likeliest I think. Assuming half a dozen or so UKIP MPs, they'd probably try to win them over on an issue by issue basis. It would be pretty wretched.

Maybe Grand Coalition isn't that far-fetched.

@Sean_F Whats your "simple average" for the Lib Dem figure ?

Based off your simple average, I get the UKIP + Con score to be 47.2% off the previous 10 Yougovs, and that figure is for both weighted and unweighted topline numbers.

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

peter_from_putney said:

Stephen Fisher's updated weekly projection of 2015 GE seats reflects the Tories' recent modest improvement in the polls, showing them winning 286 seats (+7 compared with last week) with Labour winning 278 (-5 seats) and the LibDems on 22 (-1) seats. The Tories are now shown as having a 55% chance of being the largest party with Labour on 45%.
There is an 86% chance of a Hung Parliament

If the outcome on the day really was Conservative 34.4%, Labour 31.5%, I suspect the gap in terms of seats would be bigger than that.

An interesting thought is if the collapse in Lib Dem support is real, that could mean the Tories pick up 14-16 Lib Dem seats rather than 8-10. That'd then give the Tories a net seat advantage from that collapse over Labour, which currently looks more even-Steven and balancing each other out.

Even a handful of seats could make all the difference. But it won't make it much easier for them to govern as they'll be bereft of allies to get them close to the 325 seat line.

*If* the Conservatives can get to 295 seats, it's hard to see any viable government being formed that doesn't include them. But, they would find it very hard to govern, so far short of 325.

How do you think they would try and cut it, Sean? Minority, DUP and/or LD C&S, or just make every vote a confidence vote? Do you think they'd survive?

C & S from the Lib Dems and DUP is the likeliest I think. Assuming half a dozen or so UKIP MPs, they'd probably try to win them over on an issue by issue basis. It would be pretty wretched.

Maybe Grand Coalition isn't that far-fetched.

Thanks. I agree. I think a short-term C&S with the Lib Dems for some local voting reform, pork for the DUP and UKIP will prop up until the EU vote. Then I think it'll fall apart.

I've got on a grand coalition at 50/1 but only a fiver. Thought it was too long.

coolagorna said:

Any increase that there even is in Jewish attacks is entirely down to the actions of the Israeli government

That's an utterly abhorrent view and not one even George Galloway would put forward.

coolagorna said:

SeanT said:

Remember I used to make weak jokes on pb about anti-Semitism in Britain?

They don't seem funny any more.

People spitting at Jews on the street, no, not in Berlin in 1936, in Bradford in 2015.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2964984/Fight-Jewish-scum-Shocking-anti-Semitism-streets-BRITAIN-Jewish-journalist-spat-abused-stalked-happens-Copenhagen.html

Sick and tired of hearing about the rise in Anti Semitism...the major increase here has been in
attacks against muslims recently yet most of the Tory press and some posters on here continue to flag up every odd anti Jew attack as somehow comparable to the 30s

Any increase that there even is in Jewish attacks is entirely down to the actions of the Israeli government both in last years mass murders and even recently in Mr Ns moronic address to US legislators which further showed how extreme and isolated the hated pariah state Israel now is in the world

Any "attack" like those reported, on anyone, on a British street is unacceptable, and should, if possible lead to prosecution.

There is NO excuse for such behaviour!

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

peter_from_putney said:

Stephen Fisher's updated weekly projection of 2015 GE seats reflects the Tories' recent modest improvement in the polls, showing them winning 286 seats (+7 compared with last week) with Labour winning 278 (-5 seats) and the LibDems on 22 (-1) seats. The Tories are now shown as having a 55% chance of being the largest party with Labour on 45%.
There is an 86% chance of a Hung Parliament

If the outcome on the day really was Conservative 34.4%, Labour 31.5%, I suspect the gap in terms of seats would be bigger than that.

An interesting thought is if the collapse in Lib Dem support is real, that could mean the Tories pick up 14-16 Lib Dem seats rather than 8-10. That'd then give the Tories a net seat advantage from that collapse over Labour, which currently looks more even-Steven and balancing each other out.

Even a handful of seats could make all the difference. But it won't make it much easier for them to govern as they'll be bereft of allies to get them close to the 325 seat line.

*If* the Conservatives can get to 295 seats, it's hard to see any viable government being formed that doesn't include them. But, they would find it very hard to govern, so far short of 325.

How do you think they would try and cut it, Sean? Minority, DUP and/or LD C&S, or just make every vote a confidence vote? Do you think they'd survive?

C & S from the Lib Dems and DUP is the likeliest I think. Assuming half a dozen or so UKIP MPs, they'd probably try to win them over on an issue by issue basis. It would be pretty wretched.

Maybe Grand Coalition isn't that far-fetched.

Thanks. I agree. I think a short-term C&S with the Lib Dems for some local voting reform, pork for the DUP and UKIP will prop up until the EU vote. Then I think it'll fall apart.

I've got on a grand coalition at 50/1 but only a fiver. Thought it was too long.

I have the exact same bet, I don't think it was a very good 50-1 actually.

Tissue_Price said:

antifrank said:

DavidL said:

I would think the Scottish tories will end up with 2 seats namely their current one and Berwickshire. I think they will be very close in Dumfries and Galloway and possibly in Kincardine but they risk being overtaken by the SNP in both seats.

A pretty poor return for nearly 500K votes but that is the way it goes up here.

The latest Scottish constituency polls for Lord Ashcroft are stunningly good for the SNP and stunningly bad for everyone else, the Conservatives included. I'm having a complete rethink about the outcome in Scotland and if I can get my thoughts together, I'll be putting another post up over the weekend.

One senior figure said: “We really need to forget about places like Airdrie and Shotts or Margaret Curran’s seat [Glasgow East]. We have probably lost those. We should probably hold on to Willie’s [Bain] seat [Glasgow North East]. At this rate he will be the next Scottish secretary because there will be nobody else left standing.”

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-labour-in-civil-war-over-strategy-1-3710887

Would you like to earn some more money from me.

What odds would you offer on Everton qualifying for next season's champs league and being relegated this season?

Neil said:

@coolagorna may not like the jews but at least he / she is uniting the pbc family

It's a disgusting viewpoint that's why.

SeanT said:

PB-ers really need to watch that Daily Mail video.

Something truly horrifying is happening in our country. In France and Denmark too.

Bradford & the curry mile in Manchester wasn't it?

There's a shock

TGOHF said:

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 4m4 minutes ago
I hear ITV contemplating going unilateral and hosting a 7 way debate as per No10 offer, as they have 1st one. Would send BBC/Sky apoplectic.

That would be a touchdown for Tom Bradby.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

antifrank said:

DavidL said:

I would think the Scottish tories will end up with 2 seats namely their current one and Berwickshire. I think they will be very close in Dumfries and Galloway and possibly in Kincardine but they risk being overtaken by the SNP in both seats.

A pretty poor return for nearly 500K votes but that is the way it goes up here.

The latest Scottish constituency polls for Lord Ashcroft are stunningly good for the SNP and stunningly bad for everyone else, the Conservatives included. I'm having a complete rethink about the outcome in Scotland and if I can get my thoughts together, I'll be putting another post up over the weekend.

One senior figure said: “We really need to forget about places like Airdrie and Shotts or Margaret Curran’s seat [Glasgow East]. We have probably lost those. We should probably hold on to Willie’s [Bain] seat [Glasgow North East]. At this rate he will be the next Scottish secretary because there will be nobody else left standing.”

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-labour-in-civil-war-over-strategy-1-3710887

Would you like to earn some more money from me.

What odds would you offer on Everton qualifying for next season's champs league and being relegated this season?

150/1

SeanT said:

Remember I used to make weak jokes on pb about anti-Semitism in Britain?

They don't seem funny any more.

People spitting at Jews on the street, no, not in Berlin in 1936, in Bradford in 2015.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2964984/Fight-Jewish-scum-Shocking-anti-Semitism-streets-BRITAIN-Jewish-journalist-spat-abused-stalked-happens-Copenhagen.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/islam-in-italy-muslim-with-traditional-clothes-and-koran-insulted-and-shouted-at-in-milan-10056246.html

It's an easy stunt to pull. Has no value. Just waiting for a Christian to be filmed cruising the Orthodox areas of Israel.

A great article on George Osborne in the FT:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/d1d65690-c2ae-11e4-a59c-00144feab7de.html

The whole thing is a must-read, but here are a couple of highlights:

"In Westminster circles, Osborne is widely seen as better company than the prime minister — a reversal of the duo’s public image. One Liberal Democrat cabinet minister in the coalition government says: “He’s interested and interesting. He’s funny and he likes to gossip. David Cameron can give the impression of being lofty but that isn’t the case with Osborne.”

Osborne, though, seldom looks completely at ease outside his circle of trusted friends. While Cameron makes it look simple, Osborne’s small talk with locals quickly becomes businesslike. He clasps his long fingers intently; when he laughs, one can see him calculating if a joke has some hidden booby trap."

"What is it about the north? True, Osborne represents the prosperous Cheshire seat of Tatton near Manchester — but it is only recently that he has thrown his energies into pursuing his “northern powerhouse” agenda, intended to link up cities such as Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds (electoral wastelands for the Tories) into a single economic unit, capable of becoming Britain’s second global hub alongside London. The “northern powerhouse” should be a Labour idea; instead, it is perhaps the best example of Osborne grabbing a concept and pursuing it when he can see economics, politics and personal ambition all aligning. “When that happens, he’s on to it in a flash,” says a fellow Tory MP."

"He says he simply was not ready for the top job: “I wasn’t remotely in that space so I thought, that’s not what I want to do.” So was there any “deal”, similar to the supposed 1994 agreement between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown at the Granita restaurant in Islington that Blair would become Labour leader and would hand over to Brown at some point in the future? “There was never any deal — that’s not the nature of our relationship,” Osborne says. “I didn’t tell David Cameron I wouldn’t run for the leadership of the party until after I’d told the newspapers because I didn’t want there to be any suggestion we’d done a deal." "

Hengists_Gift said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

peter_from_putney said:

Stephen Fisher's updated weekly projection of 2015 GE seats reflects the Tories' recent modest improvement in the polls, showing them winning 286 seats (+7 compared with last week) with Labour winning 278 (-5 seats) and the LibDems on 22 (-1) seats. The Tories are now shown as having a 55% chance of being the largest party with Labour on 45%.
There is an 86% chance of a Hung Parliament

If the outcome on the day really was Conservative 34.4%, Labour 31.5%, I suspect the gap in terms of seats would be bigger than that.

line.

*If* the Conservatives can get to 295 seats, it's hard to see any viable government being formed that doesn't include them. But, they would find it very hard to govern, so far short of 325.

How do you think they would try and cut it, Sean? Minority, DUP and/or LD C&S, or just make every vote a confidence vote? Do you think they'd survive?

C & S from the Lib Dems and DUP is the likeliest I think. Assuming half a dozen or so UKIP MPs, they'd probably try to win them over on an issue by issue basis. It would be pretty wretched.

Maybe Grand Coalition isn't that far-fetched.

Thanks. I agree. I think a short-term C&S with the Lib Dems for some local voting reform, pork for the DUP and UKIP will prop up until the EU vote. Then I think it'll fall apart.

I've got on a grand coalition at 50/1 but only a fiver. Thought it was too long.

What pork for UKIP? I don't see there is vast amounts of money they want. What they want is generally the opposite. They want Aid slashed, Income Tax allowances raised, HS2 scrapped, Climate Change Act repealed, the grammar School option to be available throughout the country, IHT scrapped (your favourite no doubt), HRA replaced etc etc which will either be issues already demanded by the Libdems or issues more likely to send the Libdems apoplectic.

I suspect there will only be at most half a dozen issues where UKIP and the Libdems will both agree,so either the Tories would have to get the referendum out of the way sharpish or there will be a very dull series of pieces of legislation going through Westminster. The reality is i think the Libdems will be more of a problem than UKIP simply because both the Tories and UKIP come generally from the same space and the Libdems don't but whichever way it will be extremely painful.

You misread my post. Pork for DUP. UKIP will prop up until they get an EU vote, because they know Miliband would never play ball.

Sean_F said:

taffys said:

That's an utterly abhorrent view and not one even George Galloway would put forward.

I don't often post on this site any more, but I think Coolagorna's comment really ought to lose him or her their posting privileges.

It's the Moderators' call. On the one hand, posts like that say far more about the person who makes them than any of the rest of us could (incidentally, it's not much different from the viewpoint of the leader of Preston Council). It's therefore a good thing that people are allowed to express their true feelings.

On the other, anti-Semitism tends to be the province of loons, and we don't want the site taken over by conspiracy theorists.

As usual, my view entirely.

SeanT said:

taffys said:

It's an easy stunt to pull.

True but none of us are saying we are sick of people talking about islamophobia and its all the fault of islamic state that muslims in Europe are getting this treatment

The video also makes it clear that there are streets in Britain where it is literally not safe to be openly Jewish. Perhaps I was naive, but I am genuinely shocked, and saddened. My feelings are shared by many others, as Twitter reveals.

The video therefore has value. Dismissing it is "a stunt" is imbecilic.

I am well aware there are streets in London I shouldn't go down and therefore don't. The more diverse we become the more areas this applies to.

Of course this craze all started with Shoshana Roberts parading around black and Puerto Rican areas of NY and being shocked she got catcalled for showing off the junk in the trunk.

Bond_James_Bond said:

Roger said:

Though Ed isn't to everyone's taste there is a side of Dave that also turns people off. I think we saw it yesterday when he looked both slippery and Sloaney. He hides it well but if Labour could pinpoint it and then lampoon it it could be very effective.

Being slippery and Sloaney never harmed Blair. Arguably it has harmed Miliband.

coolagorna said:

SeanT said:

Remember I used to make weak jokes on pb about anti-Semitism in Britain?

They don't seem funny any more.

People spitting at Jews on the street, no, not in Berlin in 1936, in Bradford in 2015.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2964984/Fight-Jewish-scum-Shocking-anti-Semitism-streets-BRITAIN-Jewish-journalist-spat-abused-stalked-happens-Copenhagen.html

Sick and tired of hearing about the rise in Anti Semitism...the major increase here has been in
attacks against muslims recently yet most of the Tory press and some posters on here continue to flag up every odd anti Jew attack as somehow comparable to the 30s

Any increase that there even is in Jewish attacks is entirely down to the actions of the Israeli government both in last years mass murders and even recently in Mr Ns moronic address to US legislators which further showed how extreme and isolated the hated pariah state Israel now is in the world

This is why I maintain that Labour supporters are moral incompetents. It goes to the top. Miliband ate a bacon sandwich to prove he's not a Jew, because he felt being seen as a Jew would reduce his electoral appeal to the kind of people who gob in the street at Jews.

As usual, absolute drivel

FalseFlag said:

SeanT said:

taffys said:

It's an easy stunt to pull.

True but none of us are saying we are sick of people talking about islamophobia and its all the fault of islamic state that muslims in Europe are getting this treatment

The video also makes it clear that there are streets in Britain where it is literally not safe to be openly Jewish. Perhaps I was naive, but I am genuinely shocked, and saddened. My feelings are shared by many others, as Twitter reveals.

The video therefore has value. Dismissing it is "a stunt" is imbecilic.

I am well aware there are streets in London I shouldn't go down and therefore don't. The more diverse we become the more areas this applies to.

Of course this craze all started with Shoshana Roberts parading around black and Puerto Rican areas of NY and being shocked she got catcalled for showing off the junk in the trunk.

Do you think "diverse" always means no-go areas?

Do you think this is a good thing for the country?

SeanT said:

taffys said:

It's an easy stunt to pull.

True but none of us are saying we are sick of people talking about islamophobia and its all the fault of islamic state that muslims in Europe are getting this treatment

The video also makes it clear that there are streets in Britain where it is literally not safe to be openly Jewish. Perhaps I was naive, but I am genuinely shocked, and saddened. My feelings are shared by many others, as Twitter reveals.

The video therefore has value. Dismissing it is "a stunt" is imbecilic.

I think there are streets in the UK that any one of us would avoid, for fear of the reception we'd get.

But, it's still very disturbing, nonetheless.

Patrick said:

The sickeningly hypocritical thing is that lefties like to bang on endlessly about multiculti Britain and will defend muslims onto the death no matter what some of their more deranged co-religionists get up to - but somehow a british jew is fair game because of the policy decisions of the government of Israel. WTF? Having a seriously negative view of Israel is anyone's right if they so wish (SeanT has been pretty damn vocal on that score in the past) but to confuse that with the basic rights and civil liberties of a section of our community says alot about the hard left.

Yep, the hard left is no different to the hard right.

SeanT said:

FalseFlag said:

SeanT said:

taffys said:

It's an easy stunt to pull.

True but none of us are saying we are sick of people talking about islamophobia and its all the fault of islamic state that muslims in Europe are getting this treatment

The video also makes it clear that there are streets in Britain where it is literally not safe to be openly Jewish. Perhaps I was naive, but I am genuinely shocked, and saddened. My feelings are shared by many others, as Twitter reveals.

The video therefore has value. Dismissing it is "a stunt" is imbecilic.

I am well aware there are streets in London I shouldn't go down and therefore don't. The more diverse we become the more areas this applies to.

Of course this craze all started with Shoshana Roberts parading around black and Puerto Rican areas of NY and being shocked she got catcalled for showing off the junk in the trunk.

I am genuinely curious. What streets of London do you feel you cannot go down, and why can't you go down them??

Britain used to be known for its civility and good manners. If this is dying I'd like to know where, and how, and why. And what we must do to stop it.

@FalseFlag stays well clear of Little Kiev.

SouthamObserver said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

Roger said:

Though Ed isn't to everyone's taste there is a side of Dave that also turns people off. I think we saw it yesterday when he looked both slippery and Sloaney. He hides it well but if Labour could pinpoint it and then lampoon it it could be very effective.

Being slippery and Sloaney never harmed Blair. Arguably it has harmed Miliband.

coolagorna said:

SeanT said:

Remember I used to make weak jokes on pb about anti-Semitism in Britain?

They don't seem funny any more.

People spitting at Jews on the street, no, not in Berlin in 1936, in Bradford in 2015.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2964984/Fight-Jewish-scum-Shocking-anti-Semitism-streets-BRITAIN-Jewish-journalist-spat-abused-stalked-happens-Copenhagen.html

Sick and tired of hearing about the rise in Anti Semitism...the major increase here has been in
attacks against muslims recently yet most of the Tory press and some posters on here continue to flag up every odd anti Jew attack as somehow comparable to the 30s

Any increase that there even is in Jewish attacks is entirely down to the actions of the Israeli government both in last years mass murders and even recently in Mr Ns moronic address to US legislators which further showed how extreme and isolated the hated pariah state Israel now is in the world

This is why I maintain that Labour supporters are moral incompetents. It's not just no marks like this imbecile: it goes right to the top. Miliband ate a bacon sandwich to prove he's not a Jew, because he felt being seen as a Jew would reduce his electoral appeal to the kind of people who gob in the street at Jews.

Making things up to justify your hatred of millions of your fellow citizens says a lot more about you than it does about them.

The truth hurts, clearly.

You made your moral choices, so wear them. Just don't expect not to be called out.

SeanT said:

FalseFlag said:

SeanT said:

taffys said:

It's an easy stunt to pull.

True but none of us are saying we are sick of people talking about islamophobia and its all the fault of islamic state that muslims in Europe are getting this treatment

The video also makes it clear that there are streets in Britain where it is literally not safe to be openly Jewish. Perhaps I was naive, but I am genuinely shocked, and saddened. My feelings are shared by many others, as Twitter reveals.

The video therefore has value. Dismissing it is "a stunt" is imbecilic.

I am well aware there are streets in London I shouldn't go down and therefore don't. The more diverse we become the more areas this applies to.

Of course this craze all started with Shoshana Roberts parading around black and Puerto Rican areas of NY and being shocked she got catcalled for showing off the junk in the trunk.

I am genuinely curious. What streets of London do you feel you cannot go down, and why can't you go down them??

Britain used to be known for its civility and good manners. If this is dying I'd like to know where, and how, and why. And what we must do to stop it.

Whitechapel...

Bond_James_Bond said:

SouthamObserver said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

Roger said:

Though Ed isn't to everyone's taste there is a side of Dave that also turns people off. I think we saw it yesterday when he looked both slippery and Sloaney. He hides it well but if Labour could pinpoint it and then lampoon it it could be very effective.

Being slippery and Sloaney never harmed Blair. Arguably it has harmed Miliband.

coolagorna said:

SeanT said:

Remember I used to make weak jokes on pb about anti-Semitism in Britain?

They don't seem funny any more.

People spitting at Jews on the street, no, not in Berlin in 1936, in Bradford in 2015.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2964984/Fight-Jewish-scum-Shocking-anti-Semitism-streets-BRITAIN-Jewish-journalist-spat-abused-stalked-happens-Copenhagen.html

Sick and tired of hearing about the rise in Anti Semitism...the major increase here has been in
attacks against muslims recently yet most of the Tory press and some posters on here continue to flag up every odd anti Jew attack as somehow comparable to the 30s

Any increase that there even is in Jewish attacks is entirely down to the actions of the Israeli government both in last years mass murders and even recently in Mr Ns moronic address to US legislators which further showed how extreme and isolated the hated pariah state Israel now is in the world

This is why I maintain that Labour supporters are moral incompetents. It's not just no marks like this imbecile: it goes right to the top. Miliband ate a bacon sandwich to prove he's not a Jew, because he felt being seen as a Jew would reduce his electoral appeal to the kind of people who gob in the street at Jews.

Making things up to justify your hatred of millions of your fellow citizens says a lot more about you than it does about them.

The truth hurts, clearly.

You made your moral choices, so wear them. Just don't expect not to be called out.

Can I just say that if you are a spoof then well done. If you are not then seek help.

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

taffys said:

It's an easy stunt to pull.

True but none of us are saying we are sick of people talking about islamophobia and its all the fault of islamic state that muslims in Europe are getting this treatment

The video also makes it clear that there are streets in Britain where it is literally not safe to be openly Jewish. Perhaps I was naive, but I am genuinely shocked, and saddened. My feelings are shared by many others, as Twitter reveals.

The video therefore has value. Dismissing it is "a stunt" is imbecilic.

I think there are streets in the UK that any one of us would avoid, for fear of the reception we'd get.

But, it's still very disturbing, nonetheless.

Maybe I am astoundingly naive?

Ever been to Belfast?

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

Patrick said:

The sickeningly hypocritical thing is that lefties like to bang on endlessly about multiculti Britain and will defend muslims onto the death no matter what some of their more deranged co-religionists get up to - but somehow a british jew is fair game because of the policy decisions of the government of Israel. WTF? Having a seriously negative view of Israel is anyone's right if they so wish (SeanT has been pretty damn vocal on that score in the past) but to confuse that with the basic rights and civil liberties of a section of our community says alot about the hard left.

Yep, the hard left is no different to the hard right.

The problem is that it isn't the hard left that lets this behaviour slide. It is the mainstream left that has allowed Muslim anti-Semitism become so common by not allowing any criticism of Muslims by screaming racism at anyone that did. Now we have parts of Britain which are inaccessible to certain people.

Really? Can you show the heroic battles the mainstream right has fought against this? The language Tory leaders use about Moslems looks almost identical tot he language labour leaders use; "Religion of peace", "not true Moslems" etc. Cameron and Co come out with it all the time.

There have been no-go areas in major towns and cities for many a long year. When I was a teenager in North London in the late 70s/early 80s there were plenty of places you would not venture out in at night unless you were looking for a fight.

That is apologism. I'm not even sure its correct.

taffys said:

There have been no-go areas in major towns and cities for many a long year. When I was a teenager in North London in the late 70s/early 80s there were plenty of places you would not venture out in at night unless you were looking for a fight.

That is apologism. I'm not even sure its correct.

It's not apologism, it is a statement of fact. There have always been areas in big cities that certain types of people will stick clear of.