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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Does this explain the Tory optimism about May
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Does this explain the Tory optimism about May
The above chart shows how well Dave and badly Ed do among their own supporters, as other pollsters generally find as well. I’m of the view, that Ed’s poor ratings are priced into the voting intention, and that the voting intention is largely correct.
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Also, first!
Probably, there’s a lot of it about, probably.
And multiply.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31748422
The British people just won't elect anyone who reminds them of Dwayne Dibbley as prime minister.
Mrs Ed Miliband Will Never Be The Prime Minister 's Wife
We would have never heard the end of the screeches of "Racism2 from the left........
UK has such a discriminatory policy. UKIP want to abolish it in favour of one that treats all countries equally and dosen't give automatic preference to a batch of mainly white countries and the left denounce UKIP as racist......
http://reddwarf.wikia.com/wiki/Duane_Dibbley
"Duane Dibbley is one of The Cat's Alter-Egos. We first met Duane in "Back to Reality", Series 5 Episode 6. When the Boys from the Dwarf came across a Despair Squid, a sea-creature that secretes a venom which brings on hallucinations that makes your worst nightmares come true, thus driving its victim to suicide, The Cat's hallucination caused him to lose his cool and style, thus creating his alter-ego, Duane Dibbley. Looking so geeky he couldn't even get into a Science-Fiction convention, Duane stumbles through life clutching his thermos, toothbrush (he certainly needs that one!) and extra strength spot cream. Even The Cat admits that he's the 'Duke of Dork' and also the 'Prince of Dorkness', and describes his alter ego as "a no-style gimbo with teeth the druids could use as a place of worship". With all his illusions of style and charisma ripped away his transformation, Duane was prepared to commit suicide alongside the rest of the crew. Luckily, Holly woke the crew up by having Kryten release Lithium Carbonate into Starbug's cabin before they committed suicide."
1 day 2 hours 3 minutes 4 seconds
Ensure you are in touching distance tomorrow morning for its first Saturday unveiling.
https://westlancashirerecord.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/chickentonight.jpg
And yet the absolute confidence shines through the Tories and their supporters matched only by the defeatism on the Labour side.
Dave doesn't want debates with Ed because he sees no need to take the risk and give Ed a chance. Ed sounds more than a little bit desperate for that chance.
There are 9 weeks left and current polling makes Ed PM but very few believe it. It is curious.
Kenton on Brent result
Michael David Maurice - Elected - Conservative 1097
Vincent Lo Labour 839
Michaela Lichten Green 121
Robert Wharton Liberal Democrats 70
My guess is, for this election, the Tories wouldn't be far off an overall majority.
When is Clive Lloyd going to be sacked?
"And yet the absolute confidence shines through the Tories"
You have to read Tom Wolfe's 'Bonfire of the Vanities' to understand why these 'Masters of the Universe' project such confidence. It has little to do with polling numbers.
However I'm just wondering if private polling is showing UKIP doing better than expected in Labour strongholds and that's where the confidence is coming from.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8ya6r64plk/YG-Archive-140528-Eu-Ref.pdf
More to the point: Cameron has thought about it and decided that the debates don't offer him an attractive risk/return. So he's not playing ball. The easy thing (the "chicken" thing if you like) would be to go along with peer pressure.
It's actually rather brave to say: No! Stop! I'll take the brickbacks for standing up for what is right!
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ukipdev/pages/983/attachments/original/1425477124/visa.png?1425477124
The building up of the victim as the "model student" was very clever too and something we have seen so many times since.
I remember a bit where he explains that the Masters of the Universe knew the difference between earning $1m and $2m a year. It was $1m. But one gave you an opulent life and one didn't. A masterpiece.
I'd suggest an update before the 2020 election
"Why isn't David Cameron as stupid as I want him to be, so he'll agree to a live TV debate, like Gordo?"
The clue is in the question.
CON - 34.3% (+2.1)
LAB - 31.2% (+1.3)
UKIP - 27.4% (-5.3)
GRN - 5.3% (+2.2)
IND - 1.9% (+1.9)
Tory gain from UKIP in Braintree area.
Kenton (Brent) result:
CON - 51.4% (+0.1)
LAB - 39.3% (+6.8)
GRN - 5.7% (-4.3)
LDEM - 3.7% (-2.6)
Tory hold in London, but the swing is positive for Labour.
Selhurst (Croydon) result:
LAB - 71.5% (+19.4)
CON - 11.6% (-2.0)
GRN - 7.0% (-1.5)
UKIP - 6.9% (-5.6)
LDEM - 3.1% (-2.9)
Big Labour win in London, but piling up votes where it is of no use, because they already hold.
Aha - found it.
Labour VI upweighted from 468 -> 490 today
Con from 424 -> 435
Lets take a look at the poll that had the Tories 3% ahead
Lab 492 -> 493
Con 476 -> 526
490/435 = 1.12
493/526 = 0.94
468/424 = 1.10
492/476 = 1.03
Ho hum
Con & Lab basically level as Gadfly's chart shows.
Whereas Tory supporters from the grand old duke of York onwards just follow the leader Labour want to study the prospectus.
My sense is that they're waitig till the final five weeks when from nowhere they'll produce a campaign that's so ferocious and appealing it'll make the last few weeks of Alex Salmond's YES campaign seem sluggish.
What larks, Pip....
The reason for Labour MPs despondency is they know the hand contains only a pair of jokers.
Phillipino Nurses integrate much better than rich Wahabbi Arabs like the Bin Laden's (Osama lived in London for a couple of years back in the Seventies.
I am happy with free movement of EU citizens because of the common European values that we share, and also the pragmatic reason that I may want to migrate myself in retirement. I have always liked the Italian lakes, and Berlin is rather lovely too.
Well, it's a view...
might work...
And do you really believe that Ed has a well sorted out manifesto waiting in the wings? All that I see is scriblings on a sheet of paper that would have been better left blank.
UKIP are holding steady on 14%. If the Conservatives can win 2% off UKIP, or. 1% off Labour, then I'd say the game is won.
The view here is the hard-headed one that it's just a matter of tactical advantage and Cameron is being smart/annoying (according to preference) by refusing because he thinks he'll win anyway and it might be a risk. I'm not sure that's true. Governments need a degree of popular consent (especially in hung Parliaments) and the debates offer the chance to cut through to people with detailed argument that nothing else really does (unless we expect voters to read all the manifestos - they won't). I think it's an important element of democracy (locally I agreed to half a dozen in 2010, and I don't regret it or think it did me any electoral harm), and it would be a sensible move to enshrine them in law, to avoid this silly squabble at every election.
"More to the point: Cameron has thought about it and decided that the debates don't offer him an attractive risk/return................It's actually rather brave to say: No! Stop! I'll take the brickbacks for standing up for what is right! "
It's the way you tell 'em!
Seriously Charles have you thought about 'stand-up'?
"I think your Aberdeen South bet has more chance of winning than your Edniburgh South bet by the way, no incumbency for Labour in Edi South makes it very tough there. Begg could hold on if, but only if she has personal votes."
Why do you say no incumbency in Edinburgh South? Though he's had only had only one term I understand he's very highly thought of.
I really hope you've got that the wrong way round!
Last Friday they announced a raid on pensions to pay for a reduction in student fees nobody wants
today
@politicshome: Miliband to court ‘grey’ vote with promise on pensioner benefits http://t.co/IWsWjq13Df http://t.co/MmLmmXYBcU
I think they're both wrong. Any reasonable view of the polls correponds precisely with the reading we're getting on the doorstep. Both parties are down to firm supporters, and there are rather more firm Labour supporters than firm Tories, with a clear edge in the marginal-rich Midlands. "Firm" doesn't always mean enthusiastic (IMO at most half the voters are actually enthusiastic about anyone) but it's a mistake (for punters in particular) to think that Budget promises or ferocious campaigning by anyone is going to change the underlying position now. I do expect the squeeze on third parties to continue and some surprise on May 8 that voters have ended up mostly Lab/Con after all, but a hung parliament with Labour in Government should be odds on.
As for Ukips immigration policy, I don't know what @rcs1000 is talking about, but it doesn't favour one set of oeople over another, that's the point
A voter said she couldn't vote for "them" because of "him". It was "unfair", because he "might be very good", but "still wasn't convinced".
Her parents were voting UKIP. Cue much laughing and "I know, I know".
If the kippers introduced the Australian system as they propose the wealthy wouldn't be any better off than anyone else, skilled useful people that have plenty of working life left to benefit the state get in easily, older more experienced people with useful skills or trades also get in, those approaching retirement don't because they will be a nett cost to the state.
Also, Australia has a specific policy that allows young British and Irish people to get working holiday visas. Official UKIP policy, as outlined by Nigel Farage, is to make our system more fair to people from the Commonwealth and to continue to offer young people from Australia and New Zealand working holiday visas.
Your contention that UKIP would have a colour or country blind working visa system is incorrect.
If you go into a negotiation saying "take it or leave it...", then there is only one person who needs to examine their tactics if someone says "I'll leave it, thank you."
And the empty-chair will never happen. The broadcasters' lawyers wouldn't let them. Way too open to a charge of bias. The bigger picture is that we are not in a quarterly ratings war; are looking to elect a government for the next five years.
So the broadcasters can feck right off.
Also, Australia has a specific policy that allows young British and Irish people to get working holiday visas. Official UKIP policy, as outlined by Nigel Farage, is to make our system more fair to people from the Commonwealth and to continue to offer young people from Australia and New Zealand working holiday visas.
Your contention that UKIP would have a colour or country blind working visa system is incorrect.
The ones that name the preferred PM and who they most trust with their finances.
It really doesn't matter how nice or well intentioned someone is, if you doubt their competence and you don't trust them with your money.
Listening to a strong Labour supporter last night. He knows I'm a NOTA, so he let me into his hopes. It's a strong Labour seat, so he says he's going to vote Green to send out a signal to Ed. He liked the water melon reference and thinks Ed is focussed only on being elected.
I did mention that tends to go for all politicians. I suspect he used to believe that Labour was above that sort of thing. Mind you, he was never a fan of Tony.
If Ed's losing his left-leaning support, he may be in trouble.
The WWC around the London suburbs are in a very unforgiving mood, and the older generation really don't like what the country has become. That includes people that were migrants their selves in the middle third of the 20th century.
I wonder whether we will see a divergence/clear lead emerge in the coming weeks, or whether the polls will remain in a dead heat.
The problem Cameron faces is that five years ago he claimed they were a critical part of the democratic process.
That's why he is in trouble. And rightly so.
Nope, no reference to perks for Commonwealth immigration there, just a points based system that gives them the same chance as everyone else, not being kept out by EU rules.
As long as we remain part of the EU, immigration control is nothing more than a pipe dream.
Ed needs a gamechanger. It's not happening.
No scheme of migration control will work if the rules are not enforced. There is little or any effort in the UK to deport illegals, over stayers or failed asylum seekers. There is no point in stricter rules if existing rules are not enforced.
A few mass deportations would also give the right message to others preparing to break the rules.
I was for the initial debates, and have been against them ever since.
Mr. Dugarbandier, the nuclear genie cannot be put back in the bottle.
Those hit by big influxes of immigrants which fuelled "faster population growth" were among those hit the hardest by the cuts
Rising population levels fuelled by large numbers of immigrants has helped to contribute to a near-50 per cent cut in council services in parts of the country, leading forecasters have found.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11452540/Immigration-leads-to-50-per-cent-cuts-in-council-spending-IFS-finds.html?WT.mc_id=e_DM3836&WT.tsrc=email&etype=frontpage&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_FAM_New_2015_03_06&utm_campaign=DM3836
Both therefore may feel to some degree that the polls are wrong, have to be. And in fairness there may well be some late swings, but the reasons both sides are either optimistic or pessimistic seem based more in where they feel they should be right now, not what the admittedly interpretable evidence we have shows us, which is pretty neck and neck, which spells a Labour win.
No he doesn’t. He just needs to hold it together long enough to stumble over the line. He may well manage it, though it is my hope Labour are not rewarded for being lazy and learning no lessons other than the need to make a few popular sounding announcements every now and then.
Media Guido (@MediaGuido)
06/03/2015 08:55
Labour attack video ridicules Cameron over #TVdebates. youtu.be/fxQ6L3kN4n8
06/03/2015 08:18
England's migrant population 'soars by 565,000' since 2011 tgr.ph/1GpBq2l
All the parties and broadcasters are just looking after their own interests.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-31751672
One imagines this'd be a huge scandal if it happened the other way around.