No he doesn’t. He just needs to hold it together long enough to stumble over the line. He may well manage it, though it is my hope Labour are not rewarded for being lazy and learning no lessons other than the need to make a few popular sounding announcements every now and then.
"I think your Aberdeen South bet has more chance of winning than your Edniburgh South bet by the way, no incumbency for Labour in Edi South makes it very tough there. Begg could hold on if, but only if she has personal votes."
Why do you say no incumbency in Edinburgh South? Though he's had only had only one term I understand he's very highly thought of.
I really hope you've got that the wrong way round!
Hah yep you're right, Sorry thought it was Darling's old seat (Edi SW) - which is going SNP btw.
One imagines this'd be a huge scandal if it happened the other way around.
It used to be the other way around, it was a scandal, so they changed the way things were taught and examined. Boys do better at end of term exams, girls do better at continuous assessment, the system used to heavily the former, now its heavily the latter. Rigged system gives expected results. Bears-Woods, Pope-Catholicism.
The polls are pretty much right, and if read as a group rather than selectively they indicate a small but persistent lead for Labour. There could be late swings, but there's no reason to expect them.
Imagine if Ian Smiths Rhodesia still existed and had an immigration policy that allowed unrestricted immigration from Europe while strict limits were placed on immigrants from other continents.
We would have never heard the end of the screeches of "Racism2 from the left........
UK has such a discriminatory policy. UKIP want to abolish it in favour of one that treats all countries equally and dosen't give automatic preference to a batch of mainly white countries and the left denounce UKIP as racist......
That's not actually true. The proposal is to give preference to commonwealth immigrants.
Yes it is true. No one would get preference, unlike the current EU (ie mainly white) preference we have now.
Personally I am not too keen on a system that sells British passports to the highest bidder. I would prefer a points system for non-EU migrants based upon ability to assimilate. Knowledge of English, respect for free speech, acceptance that UK law overrides religious law, that sort of thing.
Phillipino Nurses integrate much better than rich Wahabbi Arabs like the Bin Laden's (Osama lived in London for a couple of years back in the Seventies.
I am happy with free movement of EU citizens because of the common European values that we share, and also the pragmatic reason that I may want to migrate myself in retirement. I have always liked the Italian lakes, and Berlin is rather lovely too.
Why have a points system for Non EU migrants when EU migrants can just waltz in and out without restriction? It makes the whole process meaningless.
As long as we remain part of the EU, immigration control is nothing more than a pipe dream.
One imagines this'd be a huge scandal if it happened the other way around.
It used to be the other way around, it was a scandal, so they changed the way things were taught and examined. Boys do better at end of term exams, girls do better at continuous assessment, the system used to heavily the former, now its heavily the latter. Rigged system gives expected results. Bears-Woods, Pope-Catholicism.
That's different to giving different marks for the same work.
Mr. Dugarbandier, do you cancel home insurance if your house fails to burn down in the first six months?
Mr. Indigo, I agree entirely on modular/one-off exams, but this is actually saying something different, namely that identical work yields better results for girls due to teacher bias.
Dugarbandier.. Trident is a second strike system.. anyone attacking us will have been told that and reaps the reward of retaliation the message is effin clear Do not attack in the first place.. But let us give every advantage to our very obvious enemies and take away the threat..
Immigration leads to 50 per cent cuts in council spending, IFS finds
Those hit by big influxes of immigrants which fuelled "faster population growth" were among those hit the hardest by the cuts
Rising population levels fuelled by large numbers of immigrants has helped to contribute to a near-50 per cent cut in council services in parts of the country, leading forecasters have found.
My sense is that they're waitig till the final five weeks when from nowhere they'll produce a campaign that's so ferocious and appealing it'll make the last few weeks of Alex Salmond's YES campaign seem sluggish.
Labour nervousness in some quarters is for exactly the same reason as Tory confidence in others - neither side quite trusts the polls, and both feel the Tory structural advantage of being in government with a predominantly supportive media may produce a late swing.
I think they're both wrong. Any reasonable view of the polls correponds precisely with the reading we're getting on the doorstep. Both parties are down to firm supporters, and there are rather more firm Labour supporters than firm Tories, with a clear edge in the marginal-rich Midlands. "Firm" doesn't always mean enthusiastic (IMO at most half the voters are actually enthusiastic about anyone) but it's a mistake (for punters in particular) to think that Budget promises or ferocious campaigning by anyone is going to change the underlying position now. I do expect the squeeze on third parties to continue and some surprise on May 8 that voters have ended up mostly Lab/Con after all, but a hung parliament with Labour in Government should be odds on.
You might be right Labour will hold their firm disparate core vote, however beyond that the appeal of Miliband and his top team is very, very limited. The Conservatives on the other hand feel with some justification they can take a chunk of UKIP or Liberal vote is some key marginals, plus a late Miliband shy vote is very reasonable to expect.
You come on here sounding very confident, you call Anna out on t**atter, this bravado though is at odds with the reports I get from the other side right through the East Midlands, they though keep slightly quieter. A bit of the school braggart maybe, I tend to think though no need to say too much if you really are as confident as you put across.
The only East Midlands seat the Tories privately will concede as beyond holding is Lincoln, all the others including yours all to play for. I don't chuck money away but Soubry is great odds in Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Erewash too are likely to be super close.
One imagines this'd be a huge scandal if it happened the other way around.
Almost 70 years ago the hot-housing top primary class of the (state) school I attended .... hot housed for the 11+ .... was tested every month and then we sat in desks in the order in which we’d come in the test. Top of the class in the far left corner, second next place in the other of that pair of desks and so on. Although I was always in the first four or five or so I only actually came top once, and that was joint top with one of the girls. To my considerable irritation, as she was a girl, she had to have the “top spot” for the following month! Can’t recall what happened thereafter.
One imagines this'd be a huge scandal if it happened the other way around.
This is the situation with all sorts of statistics. Men die several years earlier than women. Male civilians are more likely to be slaughtered in wars. Men are less likely to be awared custody of children. Men are more likely to commit suicide. Men are more likely to be convicted of a crime, and get longer prison sentences when they do. On all these things, it does not become worthy of news coverage because it is males who come off worse.
I find the prison issue particularly concerning, because there is a current push to reduce female sentencing even further, and making the disparity even more extreme.
Media Guido (@MediaGuido) 06/03/2015 08:55 Labour attack video ridicules Cameron over #TVdebates. youtu.be/fxQ6L3kN4n8
Ouch, I missed that he had ridiculed the "pmqs are debates" line himself in the past.
Yeah that was probably the killer part... Quite clever from labour to show him arguing both sides of the argument and draw the conclusion he only wants to debate himself
Cameron's spinelessness over the debates has improved Ed's stock.Without lifting a finger,Ed could quote the old Martini advert,any place,any time,anywhere and has become a modern-day Roger Moore as a result.The consistent message of,if Ed is the 6 stone weakling,why won't he get in the ring with him? Ed's strength is his zen mastery of Cameron now because of his superior intellectual self-confidence. Cameron is a discredited one-term Prime Minister.You can't believe a word he says and his reptilian underside shows he is just another Eton Bullingdon bully boy from the nasty party.To quote a resident of this parish,he is a big Jessie.
Forget the pollsters, the columists, the soothsayers, and anything scientific and just remember one thing.
The British people just won't elect anyone who reminds them of Dwayne Dibbley as prime minister.
Harsh but fair.
Less brutally, they won't elect anyone who reminds them of Michael Foot or Neil Kinnock. Miliband actually embodies the bad points of most Labour leaders of the last 40 years. He is the union puppet that Callaghan was, the loony lefty that Foot was, the priggish student politician that Kinnock was, the sanctimonious twerp that Smith was, the oily creep that Blair was, and the arrogant snob that Brown was.
Maybe this is his problem - he's a breath of stale air.
Listening to a strong Labour supporter last night. He knows I'm a NOTA, so he let me into his hopes. It's a strong Labour seat, so he says he's going to vote Green to send out a signal to Ed. He liked the water melon reference and thinks Ed is focussed only on being elected.
I did mention that tends to go for all politicians. I suspect he used to believe that Labour was above that sort of thing. Mind you, he was never a fan of Tony.
If Ed's losing his left-leaning support, he may be in trouble.
I'm in a safe labour seat (Lewisham Deptford) and will be voting Green, if however I was back home in Brighton Kemptown where I was for the last election I'd be voting Labour no doubt, and I know a lot of former green voters there who are doing likewise after letting in a Tory there last time.
Cameron's spinelessness over the debates has improved Ed's stock.Without lifting a finger,Ed could quote the old Martini advert,any place,any time,anywhere and has become a modern-day Roger Moore as a result.The consistent message of,if Ed is the 6 stone weakling,why won't he get in the ring with him? Ed's strength is his zen mastery of Cameron now because of his superior intellectual self-confidence. Cameron is a discredited one-term Prime Minister.You can't believe a word he says and his reptilian underside shows he is just another Eton Bullingdon bully boy from the nasty party.To quote a resident of this parish,he is a big Jessie.
The quantity of whining at full Victim Volume says it all.
Milliband's really miffed that his months of training with Al 'The Hague' Campbell have gone to waste. The time would have been better spent drawing pretty crayon pictures on his blank pieces of paper.
Labour nervousness in some quarters is for exactly the same reason as Tory confidence in others - neither side quite trusts the polls, and both feel the Tory structural advantage of being in government with a predominantly supportive media may produce a late swing.
I think they're both wrong. Any reasonable view of the polls correponds precisely with the reading we're getting on the doorstep. Both parties are down to firm supporters, and there are rather more firm Labour supporters than firm Tories, with a clear edge in the marginal-rich Midlands. "Firm" doesn't always mean enthusiastic (IMO at most half the voters are actually enthusiastic about anyone) but it's a mistake (for punters in particular) to think that Budget promises or ferocious campaigning by anyone is going to change the underlying position now. I do expect the squeeze on third parties to continue and some surprise on May 8 that voters have ended up mostly Lab/Con after all, but a hung parliament with Labour in Government should be odds on.
You might be right Labour will hold their firm disparate core vote, however beyond that the appeal of Miliband and his top team is very, very limited. The Conservatives on the other hand feel with some justification they can take a chunk of UKIP or Liberal vote is some key marginals, plus a late Miliband shy vote is very reasonable to expect.
You come on here sounding very confident, you call Anna out on t**atter, this bravado though is at odds with the reports I get from the other side right through the East Midlands, they though keep slightly quieter. A bit of the school braggart maybe, I tend to think though no need to say too much if you really are as confident as you put across.
The only East Midlands seat the Tories privately will concede as beyond holding is Lincoln, all the others including yours all to play for. I don't chuck money away but Soubry is great odds in Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Erewash too are likely to be super close.
I can believe the residual LD support collapsing during the GE campaign, but I think UKIP support is pretty solid.
I hadn't clocked that Socrates is no longer around - but now you mention it, yes, seems a less shouty and argumentative place. What specifically did he do to get himself on the naughty step?
Forget the pollsters, the columists, the soothsayers, and anything scientific and just remember one thing.
The British people just won't elect anyone who reminds them of Dwayne Dibbley as prime minister.
Harsh but fair.
Less brutally, they won't elect anyone who reminds them of Michael Foot or Neil Kinnock. Miliband actually embodies the bad points of most Labour leaders of the last 40 years. He is the union puppet that Callaghan was, the loony lefty that Foot was, the priggish student politician that Kinnock was, the sanctimonious twerp that Smith was, the oily creep that Blair was, and the arrogant snob that Brown was.
Maybe this is his problem - he's a breath of stale air.
And still Miliband is within touching distance of number 10.
Voters are making other calculations as to whom the government should be in May. Tory caricatures don't really feature.
Bit late to turn that around now and focus on the Tory offer - does anyone know what that is by the way?
One imagines this'd be a huge scandal if it happened the other way around.
This is the situation with all sorts of statistics. Men die several years earlier than women. Male civilians are more likely to be slaughtered in wars. Men are less likely to be awared custody of children. Men are more likely to commit suicide. Men are more likely to be convicted of a crime, and get longer prison sentences when they do. On all these things, it does not become worthy of news coverage because it is males who come off worse.
I find the prison issue particularly concerning, because there is a current push to reduce female sentencing even further, and making the disparity even more extreme.
This is not a British problem. The study was done in 60 countries.
As well as the factors mentioned in the article, I think boys prefer a less social environment for learning. Schools are hotbeds of social interaction and boys are more likely to prefer doing things on their own. More male pursuits are solitary ones.
Forget the pollsters, the columists, the soothsayers, and anything scientific and just remember one thing.
The British people just won't elect anyone who reminds them of Dwayne Dibbley as prime minister.
Harsh but fair.
Less brutally, they won't elect anyone who reminds them of Michael Foot or Neil Kinnock. Miliband actually embodies the bad points of most Labour leaders of the last 40 years. He is the union puppet that Callaghan was, the loony lefty that Foot was, the priggish student politician that Kinnock was, the sanctimonious twerp that Smith was, the oily creep that Blair was, and the arrogant snob that Brown was.
Maybe this is his problem - he's a breath of stale air.
And still Miliband is within touching distance of number 10.
Voters are making other calculations as to whom the government should be in May. Tory caricatures don't really feature.
Bit late to turn that around now and focus on the Tory offer - does anyone know what that is by the way?
"... if you walked into a nuclear missile showroom you would buy Trident - it's lovely, it's elegant, it's beautiful. It is quite simply the best. And Britain should have the best. In the world of the nuclear missile it is the Saville Row suit, the Rolls Royce Corniche, the Château Lafitte 1945. It is the nuclear missile Harrods would sell you....
I heard the other day that Manchester was the first nuclear free zone in the UK. If only they had realised what a style icon they were turning down
I hadn't clocked that Socrates is no longer around - but now you mention it, yes, seems a less shouty and argumentative place. What specifically did he do to get himself on the naughty step?
He was upset at muslims getting away with sexually abusing children in Rotherham and the moderators didn't like him talking about it
I heard the other day that Manchester was the first nuclear free zone in the UK. If only they had realised what a style icon they were turning down
London was expected to be devastated by two to four bombs of up to five megatons each exploding over the city. Glasgow, Birmingham and Manchester were each said to be in line for one or two "airbursts" of up to five megatons.
@jameschappers: Sturgeon tells @guardian SNP can support minority Lab government on "case-by-case basis" *without* a deal on Trident. Appears v significant
I hadn't clocked that Socrates is no longer around - but now you mention it, yes, seems a less shouty and argumentative place. What specifically did he do to get himself on the naughty step?
He was upset at muslims getting away with sexually abusing children in Rotherham and the moderators didn't like him talking about it
Maybe he is at a diversity awareness course?
Bit harsh! He's right - we should make a noise about child rape shouldn't we?
@jameschappers: Sturgeon tells @guardian SNP can support minority Lab government on "case-by-case basis" *without* a deal on Trident. Appears v significant
Errrmmmm isn't that what they would do anyway with any government? What's happened to confidence and supply though?
@ThescreamingEagles How many seats do you think the Conservatives will win in Scotland - Ruth Davidson is a damn sight more convincing than the Labour lot at putting forward the unionist point to my mind.
Forget the pollsters, the columists, the soothsayers, and anything scientific and just remember one thing.
The British people just won't elect anyone who reminds them of Dwayne Dibbley as prime minister.
Harsh but fair.
Less brutally, they won't elect anyone who reminds them of Michael Foot or Neil Kinnock. Miliband actually embodies the bad points of most Labour leaders of the last 40 years. He is the union puppet that Callaghan was, the loony lefty that Foot was, the priggish student politician that Kinnock was, the sanctimonious twerp that Smith was, the oily creep that Blair was, and the arrogant snob that Brown was.
Maybe this is his problem - he's a breath of stale air.
And still Miliband is within touching distance of number 10.
Voters are making other calculations as to whom the government should be in May. Tory caricatures don't really feature.
Bit late to turn that around now and focus on the Tory offer - does anyone know what that is by the way?
As was Kinnock in touching distance of No 10
Tories relying on pre 1992 polling as a crutch? That's interesting.
On the debates, I've always said the last thing the Conservatives would want is for Cameron to face hostile public questionning on, for example, immigration. Within a seven-corner debate he would be helped by other leaders criticising each other - in the head to head or three-hander, it would be impossible to hide.
The other aspect and one we on here struggle to understand is that most people aren't interested in politics as we are and don't waste significant chunks of their lives telling a group of uninterested people how good our side is and how bad the other side is.
That said, they want and have a right to be involved - the debates worked well because they allocated a fixed amount of time in people's busy lives in advance for them to concentrate on the political process after which they can do the important things such as spending time with their families of de-worming the cat.
We on there don't care or don't rate them as important because our minds (well, those that have them) have been made up and all they do is re-enforce our prejudices and misconceptions. Many other people aren't like that and want to hear the arguments put forward.
Cameron's problem is he is not the "new kid on the block" (neither is Nick Clegg) from 2010 - they have to defend a record which is flawed in some key areas of public concern (see above). The other possibility which most on here will deride is when the public see and hear Ed Miliband they might not take to him as badly as the Daily Mail does and they might actually like what he has to say. Some may consider that a remote possibility and they may be right to do so but it's not one which CCHQ can afford to underestimate just as they plainly underestimated Nick Clegg's impact in 2010.
Given that it was clear just taking a handful of conservative leads in a cluster which has happened multiple times over the last year in exactly the same fashion and calling it crossover was nonsense, I think anyone sensible knew.
Though Ed isn't to everyone's taste there is a side of Dave that also turns people off. I think we saw it yesterday when he looked both slippery and Sloaney. He hides it well but if Labour could pinpoint it and then lampoon it it could be very effective.
@ThescreamingEagles How many seats do you think the Conservatives will win in Scotland - Ruth Davidson is a damn sight more convincing than the Labour lot at putting forward the unionist point to my mind.
0 25% 1 40% 2 25% 3 10%
Something like that ?
I think 1 or 2.
But then again I wouldn't be surprised if it was 3 or zero.
Peak kipper is called only when ukip are doing badly... Hence my earlier comment about the thread topic.. Mug punters jump on whichever horse looks like it's going to win or has the momentum... Obviously the way to make money is to see these trends before they happen
But peak kipper is only called after it has supposedly happened... Until the next time
Forget the pollsters, the columists, the soothsayers, and anything scientific and just remember one thing.
The British people just won't elect anyone who reminds them of Dwayne Dibbley as prime minister.
Harsh but fair.
Less brutally, they won't elect anyone who reminds them of Michael Foot or Neil Kinnock. Miliband actually embodies the bad points of most Labour leaders of the last 40 years. He is the union puppet that Callaghan was, the loony lefty that Foot was, the priggish student politician that Kinnock was, the sanctimonious twerp that Smith was, the oily creep that Blair was, and the arrogant snob that Brown was.
Maybe this is his problem - he's a breath of stale air.
And still Miliband is within touching distance of number 10.
Voters are making other calculations as to whom the government should be in May. Tory caricatures don't really feature.
Bit late to turn that around now and focus on the Tory offer - does anyone know what that is by the way?
As was Kinnock in touching distance of No 10
Tories relying on pre 1992 polling as a crutch? That's interesting.
I hadn't clocked that Socrates is no longer around - but now you mention it, yes, seems a less shouty and argumentative place. What specifically did he do to get himself on the naughty step?
He was upset at muslims getting away with sexually abusing children in Rotherham and the moderators didn't like him talking about it
Maybe he is at a diversity awareness course?
Bit harsh! He's right - we should make a noise about child rape shouldn't we?
I think so, but rotherham council and PB moderators don't seem to agree and thems the rules
@jameschappers: Sturgeon tells @guardian SNP can support minority Lab government on "case-by-case basis" *without* a deal on Trident. Appears v significant
Errrmmmm isn't that what they would do anyway with any government? What's happened to confidence and supply though?
Well they both settle as "minority" with the bookies
@ThescreamingEagles How many seats do you think the Conservatives will win in Scotland - Ruth Davidson is a damn sight more convincing than the Labour lot at putting forward the unionist point to my mind.
0 25% 1 40% 2 25% 3 10%
Something like that ?
Christmas tree formation:
0 40% 1 30% 2 20% 3 10%
(That's actually probably being kind to the Scottish Conservatives at the upper end.)
The clue is in the words 'labour voters' because they will still vote Labour and nothing would make them vote for the'popular' Tories ( LOL)! This is a non article because it does not signify anything which will change minds.
A Labour-SNP alliance would be a lethal cocktail for the United Kingdom. The two parties loathe and distrust one another in Scotland. At Westminster, SNP minds would not be focused on the well-being of the United Kingdom, but on their own party interests.
In collaboration, the two parties would make common cause at the expense of their natural enemies. For Labour, that will be to pick the pockets of the Tory Shires; and for the SNP, to boost Scotland at the expense of the rest of the UK.
I believe it is shameful that Labour have not already ruled out even the suggestion of such a partnership.
@ThescreamingEagles How many seats do you think the Conservatives will win in Scotland - Ruth Davidson is a damn sight more convincing than the Labour lot at putting forward the unionist point to my mind.
0 25% 1 40% 2 25% 3 10%
Something like that ?
I think 1 or 2.
But then again I wouldn't be surprised if it was 3 or zero.
Peak kipper is called only when ukip are doing badly... Hence my earlier comment about the thread topic.. Mug punters jump on whichever horse looks like it's going to win or has the momentum... Obviously the way to make money is to see these trends before they happen
But peak kipper is only called after it has supposedly happened... Until the next time
Actually the way the betting markets seem to work at the moment you can check which horse is ahead, back it and then still back the other horse if it appears to gain a couple of lengths and still remain with a good position.
@ThescreamingEagles How many seats do you think the Conservatives will win in Scotland - Ruth Davidson is a damn sight more convincing than the Labour lot at putting forward the unionist point to my mind.
0 25% 1 40% 2 25% 3 10%
Something like that ?
Christmas tree formation:
0 40% 1 30% 2 20% 3 10%
(That's actually probably being kind to the Scottish Conservatives at the upper end.)
Corals may well, despite the apparently ridiculous prices on Scottish Labour/Lib Dems actually hose up very nicely on the election.
A Labour-SNP alliance would be a lethal cocktail for the United Kingdom. The two parties loathe and distrust one another in Scotland. At Westminster, SNP minds would not be focused on the well-being of the United Kingdom, but on their own party interests.
In collaboration, the two parties would make common cause at the expense of their natural enemies. For Labour, that will be to pick the pockets of the Tory Shires; and for the SNP, to boost Scotland at the expense of the rest of the UK.
I believe it is shameful that Labour have not already ruled out even the suggestion of such a partnership.
@stodge This election is being fought on the principle of "not losing" till after Easter, then going full tilt to the finish line. Some elections are sprints, some are middle distance, and this one is a marathon, due to the FTP act.
A Labour-SNP alliance would be a lethal cocktail for the United Kingdom. The two parties loathe and distrust one another in Scotland. At Westminster, SNP minds would not be focused on the well-being of the United Kingdom, but on their own party interests.
In collaboration, the two parties would make common cause at the expense of their natural enemies. For Labour, that will be to pick the pockets of the Tory Shires; and for the SNP, to boost Scotland at the expense of the rest of the UK.
I believe it is shameful that Labour have not already ruled out even the suggestion of such a partnership.
Insightful critique......With UKIP manoeuvring in the North, Labour could be in a tricky position in 2020 if they've sold England down the river for SNP support.....
Imagine if Ian Smiths Rhodesia still existed and had an immigration policy that allowed unrestricted immigration from Europe while strict limits were placed on immigrants from other continents.
We would have never heard the end of the screeches of "Racism2 from the left........
UK has such a discriminatory policy. UKIP want to abolish it in favour of one that treats all countries equally and dosen't give automatic preference to a batch of mainly white countries and the left denounce UKIP as racist......
That's not actually true. The proposal is to give preference to commonwealth immigrants.
Yes it is true. No one would get preference, unlike the current EU (ie mainly white) preference we have now.
Also, Australia has a specific policy that allows young British and Irish people to get working holiday visas. Official UKIP policy, as outlined by Nigel Farage, is to make our system more fair to people from the Commonwealth and to continue to offer young people from Australia and New Zealand working holiday visas.
Your contention that UKIP would have a colour or country blind working visa system is incorrect.
Surely any immigration we might have should prioritise people of British descent, as Israel and India do with their people? Allowing in rich people regardless of their background and values seems daft.
I would think the Scottish tories will end up with 2 seats namely their current one and Berwickshire. I think they will be very close in Dumfries and Galloway and possibly in Kincardine but they risk being overtaken by the SNP in both seats.
A pretty poor return for nearly 500K votes but that is the way it goes up here.
I would think the Scottish tories will end up with 2 seats namely their current one and Berwickshire. I think they will be very close in Dumfries and Galloway and possibly in Kincardine but they risk being overtaken by the SNP in both seats.
A pretty poor return for nearly 500K votes but that is the way it goes up here.
Doubt it'll be close in Kincardine, the incumbent has been pushed into third but people on the doorstep will really struggle with the "Only the Conservatives can beat the SNP" argument on the doorstep. So it won't happen. For that reason it looks very secure for the SNP.
I added to the SNP at 10-11 and I can't see how their chance of taking the seat is only 55 odd%.
I heard the other day that Manchester was the first nuclear free zone in the UK. If only they had realised what a style icon they were turning down
London was expected to be devastated by two to four bombs of up to five megatons each exploding over the city. Glasgow, Birmingham and Manchester were each said to be in line for one or two "airbursts" of up to five megatons.
@stodge This election is being fought on the principle of "not losing" till after Easter, then going full tilt to the finish line. Some elections are sprints, some are middle distance, and this one is a marathon, due to the FTP act.
Oddly enough, it's a sprint and nothing to do with FTPA. My recollection of the 2005 election is the date was leaked well in advance by the currant bun and the pre-election skirmishing began in the New Year.
Most election dates have been well known in advance either because the confident PM knows he or she will be re-elected after four years or the desperate PM is backed into a corner and has no other options.
The starting gun will be fired by the Budget and apart from Easter and assuming no Icelandic ash clouds intervene, it'll be full speed ahead from April 5th for five weeks of mindnumbing tedium and pointless niping on here.
Welcome to the General Election Handicap - a race for three year olds of all ages.
I would think the Scottish tories will end up with 2 seats namely their current one and Berwickshire. I think they will be very close in Dumfries and Galloway and possibly in Kincardine but they risk being overtaken by the SNP in both seats.
A pretty poor return for nearly 500K votes but that is the way it goes up here.
The latest Scottish constituency polls for Lord Ashcroft are stunningly good for the SNP and stunningly bad for everyone else, the Conservatives included. I'm having a complete rethink about the outcome in Scotland and if I can get my thoughts together, I'll be putting another post up over the weekend.
Mr. Pulpstar, I wonder if Conservatives achieving some second places in Scotland (to the SNP) might prove useful for the future, as has been suggested could be the case for UKIP (second to Labour) in northern English constituencies.
I heard the other day that Manchester was the first nuclear free zone in the UK. If only they had realised what a style icon they were turning down
London was expected to be devastated by two to four bombs of up to five megatons each exploding over the city. Glasgow, Birmingham and Manchester were each said to be in line for one or two "airbursts" of up to five megatons.
The Conservative in Scotland seat figure at the moment is extremely quantum. The more you can be certain about it the more likely tactical voting may occur to move it around.
Incidentally I did the sums right this time and Labour 0-20 seats is @1.26 decimal or approximately 1/4 in old money. If you are braver and got for 0-15 seats then it's @1.54 which is about 8/15.
I would think the Scottish tories will end up with 2 seats namely their current one and Berwickshire. I think they will be very close in Dumfries and Galloway and possibly in Kincardine but they risk being overtaken by the SNP in both seats.
A pretty poor return for nearly 500K votes but that is the way it goes up here.
The latest Scottish constituency polls for Lord Ashcroft are stunningly good for the SNP and stunningly bad for everyone else, the Conservatives included. I'm having a complete rethink about the outcome in Scotland and if I can get my thoughts together, I'll be putting another post up over the weekend.
It should start with "...anyone who was thinking of laying off their SNP bets is a moron"
Already we have a u-turn on transport policy (they realised it would make just about all cars illegal) and a statement declaring an effective political fatwa against the Tories.
In practice does that mean they will vote tactically for whichever party can beat the Tories in a particular seat? Definitely a question for Natalie Bennett......
Stephen Fisher's updated weekly projection of 2015 GE seats reflects the Tories' recent modest improvement in the polls, showing them winning 286 seats (+7 compared with last week) with Labour winning 278 (-5 seats) and the LibDems on 22 (-1) seats. The Tories are now shown as having a 55% chance of being the largest party with Labour on 45%. There is an 86% chance of a Hung Parliament
Stephen Fisher's updated weekly projection of 2015 GE seats reflects the Tories' recent modest improvement in the polls, showing them winning 286 seats (+7 compared with last week) with Labour winning 278 (-5 seats) and the LibDems on 22 (-1) seats. The Tories are now shown as having a 55% chance of being the largest party with Labour on 45%. There is an 86% chance of a Hung Parliament
If the outcome on the day really was Conservative 34.4%, Labour 31.5%, I suspect the gap in terms of seats would be bigger than that.
Stephen Fisher's updated weekly projection of 2015 GE seats reflects the Tories' recent modest improvement in the polls, showing them winning 286 seats (+7 compared with last week) with Labour winning 278 (-5 seats) and the LibDems on 22 (-1) seats. The Tories are now shown as having a 55% chance of being the largest party with Labour on 45%. There is an 86% chance of a Hung Parliament
Looks about right. This is going to come down to the results in barely 15 Con-Lab marginals IMHO. If Cameron can get these on side and in the high 290s he'll probably be able to hang onto power for another couple of years. If he's very lucky, a full-term.
Labour nervousness in some quarters is for exactly the same reason as Tory confidence in others - neither side quite trusts the polls, and both feel the Tory structural advantage of being in government with a predominantly supportive media may produce a late swing.
I think they're both wrong. Any reasonable view of the polls correponds precisely with the reading we're getting on the doorstep. Both parties are down to firm supporters, and there are rather more firm Labour supporters than firm Tories
That seems about right to me. A lot of Tories feel that really they should be doing better (rather than just Labour declining from where they were a few years ago), they should be being rewarded at least a little by the public, and that may even be fair, but if it is happening it is happening by the Tory vote holding up as well in government as might be hoped, not from gaining ground. Conversely, many in Labour cannot quite seem to believe that despite the enthusiasm, if it were not for the collapse in Scotland they would be winning fairly comfortably if as expected Labour can win most seats on little to no lead on the national polling.
Both therefore may feel to some degree that the polls are wrong, have to be. And in fairness there may well be some late swings, but the reasons both sides are either optimistic or pessimistic seem based more in where they feel they should be right now, not what the admittedly interpretable evidence we have shows us, which is pretty neck and neck, which spells a Labour win.
The problem Cameron faces is that five years ago he claimed they were a critical part of the democratic process.
That's why he is in trouble. And rightly so.
Ed needs a gamechanger.
No he doesn’t. He just needs to hold it together long enough to stumble over the line. He may well manage it, though it is my hope Labour are not rewarded for being lazy and learning no lessons other than the need to make a few popular sounding announcements every now and then.
I think we have to take cognisance that the great Tory warchest is still untapped - and will be until after the budget. Only then will we see what the actual trend will be. Six weeks is a long time in politics.
I would think the Scottish tories will end up with 2 seats namely their current one and Berwickshire. I think they will be very close in Dumfries and Galloway and possibly in Kincardine but they risk being overtaken by the SNP in both seats.
A pretty poor return for nearly 500K votes but that is the way it goes up here.
The latest Scottish constituency polls for Lord Ashcroft are stunningly good for the SNP and stunningly bad for everyone else, the Conservatives included. I'm having a complete rethink about the outcome in Scotland and if I can get my thoughts together, I'll be putting another post up over the weekend.
It should start with "...anyone who was thinking of laying off their SNP bets is a moron"
When the facts change, I change my opinions.
I don't think it has yet generally sunk in just how sensational the latest batch of Scottish constituency polls are and how they blew apart the emerging consensus of what the SNP coalition looks like.
Comments
Yup, that's pretty much how I read it, Kle.
The polls are pretty much right, and if read as a group rather than selectively they indicate a small but persistent lead for Labour. There could be late swings, but there's no reason to expect them.
We're heading for NOM.
... and when you can buy EU passport in Bulgaria
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/investigations/10699637/EU-citizenship-for-sale-to-non-Europeans-in-Bulgaria-for-as-little-as-150000.html
Mr. Indigo, I agree entirely on modular/one-off exams, but this is actually saying something different, namely that identical work yields better results for girls due to teacher bias.
http://tinyurl.com/
You come on here sounding very confident, you call Anna out on t**atter, this bravado though is at odds with the reports I get from the other side right through the East Midlands, they though keep slightly quieter. A bit of the school braggart maybe, I tend to think though no need to say too much if you really are as confident as you put across.
The only East Midlands seat the Tories privately will concede as beyond holding is Lincoln, all the others including yours all to play for. I don't chuck money away but Soubry is great odds in Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Erewash too are likely to be super close.
Epochal roles between between 1977 and 1982
I find the prison issue particularly concerning, because there is a current push to reduce female sentencing even further, and making the disparity even more extreme.
Part-ELBOW for week's polls so far, inc. last night's YG
Lab 33.6
Con 33.4
UKIP 14.3
LD 7.0
Grn 6.0
Where's yer Crossover now?
Purrrrr.
Hope everyone is having a good Friday. Weekened looks warm and sunny. Spring is here.
And only 2 months till this awful administration is defenestrated!
I agree entirely.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03222/060315-MATT-web_3222003a.jpg
Cameron is a discredited one-term Prime Minister.You can't believe a word he says and his reptilian underside shows he is just another Eton Bullingdon bully boy from the nasty party.To quote a resident of this parish,he is a big Jessie.
Less brutally, they won't elect anyone who reminds them of Michael Foot or Neil Kinnock. Miliband actually embodies the bad points of most Labour leaders of the last 40 years. He is the union puppet that Callaghan was, the loony lefty that Foot was, the priggish student politician that Kinnock was, the sanctimonious twerp that Smith was, the oily creep that Blair was, and the arrogant snob that Brown was.
Maybe this is his problem - he's a breath of stale air.
A video showing double standards and hypocrisy
Media Guido (@MediaGuido)
06/03/2015 08:55
Labour attack video ridicules Cameron over #TVdebates. youtu.be/fxQ6L3kN4n8
A politician in double standards shock, well I never.
I can't get wound up about this debates bollocks, I hate US style politics anyway.
As a Kipper I'd say Farage is better off doing what he did yesterday on Loose Women than being attacked by all sides during a debate.
Milliband's really miffed that his months of training with Al 'The Hague' Campbell have gone to waste. The time would have been better spent drawing pretty crayon pictures on his blank pieces of paper.
Voters are making other calculations as to whom the government should be in May. Tory caricatures don't really feature.
Bit late to turn that around now and focus on the Tory offer - does anyone know what that is by the way?
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/education-31751667
Though by their twenties the boys have caught up.
As well as the factors mentioned in the article, I think boys prefer a less social environment for learning. Schools are hotbeds of social interaction and boys are more likely to prefer doing things on their own. More male pursuits are solitary ones.
Con 31 (-1) Lab 33 (-1) LD 8 (nc) UKIP 16 (+2) Greens 5 (nc)
http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_06-03-2015_BPC.pdf
You win some you lose some. Cameron's buddies now have to be careful about calling Ed weak in future broadcast interviews.
"... if you walked into a nuclear missile showroom you would buy Trident - it's lovely, it's elegant, it's beautiful. It is quite simply the best. And Britain should have the best. In the world of the nuclear missile it is the Saville Row suit, the Rolls Royce Corniche, the Château Lafitte 1945. It is the nuclear missile Harrods would sell you....
I heard the other day that Manchester was the first nuclear free zone in the UK. If only they had realised what a style icon they were turning down
Maybe he is at a diversity awareness course?
Who knew?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/05/uk-government-top-secret-list-probable-nuclear-targets-1970s
You might find Cammo is less keen on that line of attack as well. But we will see.
58% for the SNP !!
Good to see Kezia doing her bit for PB bettors' portfolios last night.
There's a lesson in that. Or it is just MOE.
Brave Dave seems not to want to make much of it either at the moment?
Odd, when the Mirror is not usually favourable for him?
0 25%
1 40%
2 25%
3 10%
Something like that ?
On the debates, I've always said the last thing the Conservatives would want is for Cameron to face hostile public questionning on, for example, immigration. Within a seven-corner debate he would be helped by other leaders criticising each other - in the head to head or three-hander, it would be impossible to hide.
The other aspect and one we on here struggle to understand is that most people aren't interested in politics as we are and don't waste significant chunks of their lives telling a group of uninterested people how good our side is and how bad the other side is.
That said, they want and have a right to be involved - the debates worked well because they allocated a fixed amount of time in people's busy lives in advance for them to concentrate on the political process after which they can do the important things such as spending time with their families of de-worming the cat.
We on there don't care or don't rate them as important because our minds (well, those that have them) have been made up and all they do is re-enforce our prejudices and misconceptions. Many other people aren't like that and want to hear the arguments put forward.
Cameron's problem is he is not the "new kid on the block" (neither is Nick Clegg) from 2010 - they have to defend a record which is flawed in some key areas of public concern (see above). The other possibility which most on here will deride is when the public see and hear Ed Miliband they might not take to him as badly as the Daily Mail does and they might actually like what he has to say. Some may consider that a remote possibility and they may be right to do so but it's not one which CCHQ can afford to underestimate just as they plainly underestimated Nick Clegg's impact in 2010.
But then again I wouldn't be surprised if it was 3 or zero.
Tut tut when will you learn?
Peak kipper is called only when ukip are doing badly... Hence my earlier comment about the thread topic.. Mug punters jump on whichever horse looks like it's going to win or has the momentum... Obviously the way to make money is to see these trends before they happen
But peak kipper is only called after it has supposedly happened... Until the next time
No. But they might be relying on Ed Miliband...
0 40%
1 30%
2 20%
3 10%
(That's actually probably being kind to the Scottish Conservatives at the upper end.)
A Labour-SNP alliance would be a lethal cocktail for the United Kingdom. The two parties loathe and distrust one another in Scotland. At Westminster, SNP minds would not be focused on the well-being of the United Kingdom, but on their own party interests.
In collaboration, the two parties would make common cause at the expense of their natural enemies. For Labour, that will be to pick the pockets of the Tory Shires; and for the SNP, to boost Scotland at the expense of the rest of the UK.
I believe it is shameful that Labour have not already ruled out even the suggestion of such a partnership.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11452938/John-Major-It-is-shameful-that-Labour-hasnt-ruled-out-a-pact-with-the-SNP.html
Let me introduce you to a concept you may be unfamiliar with: turnout
Bad value winners.
Serendipity.
This election is being fought on the principle of "not losing" till after Easter, then going full tilt to the finish line.
Some elections are sprints, some are middle distance, and this one is a marathon, due to the FTP act.
I can't help feeling I'm overindulging PBers but heck it's only a brief but scintillating comet over the electoral skyline every five years.
A pretty poor return for nearly 500K votes but that is the way it goes up here.
UKIP Candidate's Song For David Cameron
http://tinyurl.com/mzgv3q2
Can see how rotherham, saville etc happened with that kind of thinking.... Collateral damage is a price worth paying to stay in control
I added to the SNP at 10-11 and I can't see how their chance of taking the seat is only 55 odd%.
At least 70+
http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
and scare yourself about how big the blast radius is, 5mt on Big Ben for example would reach Watford with the thermal radiation flash.
Most election dates have been well known in advance either because the confident PM knows he or she will be re-elected after four years or the desperate PM is backed into a corner and has no other options.
The starting gun will be fired by the Budget and apart from Easter and assuming no Icelandic ash clouds intervene, it'll be full speed ahead from April 5th for five weeks of mindnumbing tedium and pointless niping on here.
Welcome to the General Election Handicap - a race for three year olds of all ages.
Incidentally I did the sums right this time and Labour 0-20 seats is @1.26 decimal or approximately 1/4 in old money. If you are braver and got for 0-15 seats then it's @1.54 which is about 8/15.
The "morons" are those who never consider laying off their bets.
http://news.sky.com/story/1439888/sophy-ridge-green-party-conference-in-tweets
Already we have a u-turn on transport policy (they realised it would make just about all cars illegal) and a statement declaring an effective political fatwa against the Tories.
In practice does that mean they will vote tactically for whichever party can beat the Tories in a particular seat? Definitely a question for Natalie Bennett......
Now that Populus is in, I should think that the UKPR average will have Conservative and Labour on 33% apiece.
There is an 86% chance of a Hung Parliament
I have now added to them significantly.
I don't think it has yet generally sunk in just how sensational the latest batch of Scottish constituency polls are and how they blew apart the emerging consensus of what the SNP coalition looks like.