politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Does this explain the Tory optimism about May

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

No he doesn’t. He just needs to hold it together long enough to stumble over the line. He may well manage it, though it is my hope Labour are not rewarded for being lazy and learning no lessons other than the need to make a few popular sounding announcements every now and then.

oops thought kle4's comment was from Nick :-)

@Kle4

Yup, that's pretty much how I read it, Kle.

The polls are pretty much right, and if read as a group rather than selectively they indicate a small but persistent lead for Labour. There could be late swings, but there's no reason to expect them.

We're heading for NOM.

Indigo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Education: girls get higher marks for the same work:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-31751672

One imagines this'd be a huge scandal if it happened the other way around.

It used to be the other way around, it was a scandal, so they changed the way things were taught and examined. Boys do better at end of term exams, girls do better at continuous assessment, the system used to heavily the former, now its heavily the latter. Rigged system gives expected results. Bears-Woods, Pope-Catholicism.

That's different to giving different marks for the same work.

isam said:

A video showing double standards and hypocrisy

Media Guido (@MediaGuido)
06/03/2015 08:55
Labour attack video ridicules Cameron over #TVdebates. youtu.be/fxQ6L3kN4n8

Ouch, I missed that he had ridiculed the "pmqs are debates" line himself in the past.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/culturepicturegalleries/10462824/Harrison-Ford-the-20-essential-films.html?frame=2740899

Epochal roles between between 1977 and 1982

Part-ELBOW for week's polls so far, inc. last night's YG

Lab 33.6
Con 33.4
UKIP 14.3
LD 7.0
Grn 6.0

Where's yer Crossover now?

Stereotomy said:

isam said:

A video showing double standards and hypocrisy

Media Guido (@MediaGuido)
06/03/2015 08:55
Labour attack video ridicules Cameron over #TVdebates. youtu.be/fxQ6L3kN4n8

Ouch, I missed that he had ridiculed the "pmqs are debates" line himself in the past.

Yeah that was probably the killer part... Quite clever from labour to show him arguing both sides of the argument and draw the conclusion he only wants to debate himself

Matt....

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03222/060315-MATT-web_3222003a.jpg

Mr. Pete, I think you've overdone it, but that post was entertaining nonetheless

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Forget the pollsters, the columists, the soothsayers, and anything scientific and just remember one thing.

The British people just won't elect anyone who reminds them of Dwayne Dibbley as prime minister.

Harsh but fair.

Less brutally, they won't elect anyone who reminds them of Michael Foot or Neil Kinnock. Miliband actually embodies the bad points of most Labour leaders of the last 40 years. He is the union puppet that Callaghan was, the loony lefty that Foot was, the priggish student politician that Kinnock was, the sanctimonious twerp that Smith was, the oily creep that Blair was, and the arrogant snob that Brown was.

Maybe this is his problem - he's a breath of stale air.

volcanopete said:

Cameron's spinelessness over the debates has improved Ed's stock

Any polling evidence to back that up?

CD13 said:

Anecdote ...

Listening to a strong Labour supporter last night. He knows I'm a NOTA, so he let me into his hopes. It's a strong Labour seat, so he says he's going to vote Green to send out a signal to Ed. He liked the water melon reference and thinks Ed is focussed only on being elected.

I did mention that tends to go for all politicians. I suspect he used to believe that Labour was above that sort of thing. Mind you, he was never a fan of Tony.

If Ed's losing his left-leaning support, he may be in trouble.

I'm in a safe labour seat (Lewisham Deptford) and will be voting Green, if however I was back home in Brighton Kemptown where I was for the last election I'd be voting Labour no doubt, and I know a lot of former green voters there who are doing likewise after letting in a Tory there last time.

macisback said:

NickPalmer said:

Labour nervousness in some quarters is for exactly the same reason as Tory confidence in others - neither side quite trusts the polls, and both feel the Tory structural advantage of being in government with a predominantly supportive media may produce a late swing.

I think they're both wrong. Any reasonable view of the polls correponds precisely with the reading we're getting on the doorstep. Both parties are down to firm supporters, and there are rather more firm Labour supporters than firm Tories, with a clear edge in the marginal-rich Midlands. "Firm" doesn't always mean enthusiastic (IMO at most half the voters are actually enthusiastic about anyone) but it's a mistake (for punters in particular) to think that Budget promises or ferocious campaigning by anyone is going to change the underlying position now. I do expect the squeeze on third parties to continue and some surprise on May 8 that voters have ended up mostly Lab/Con after all, but a hung parliament with Labour in Government should be odds on.

You might be right Labour will hold their firm disparate core vote, however beyond that the appeal of Miliband and his top team is very, very limited. The Conservatives on the other hand feel with some justification they can take a chunk of UKIP or Liberal vote is some key marginals, plus a late Miliband shy vote is very reasonable to expect.

You come on here sounding very confident, you call Anna out on t**atter, this bravado though is at odds with the reports I get from the other side right through the East Midlands, they though keep slightly quieter. A bit of the school braggart maybe, I tend to think though no need to say too much if you really are as confident as you put across.

The only East Midlands seat the Tories privately will concede as beyond holding is Lincoln, all the others including yours all to play for. I don't chuck money away but Soubry is great odds in Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Erewash too are likely to be super close.

I can believe the residual LD support collapsing during the GE campaign, but I think UKIP support is pretty solid.

Bond_James_Bond said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Forget the pollsters, the columists, the soothsayers, and anything scientific and just remember one thing.

The British people just won't elect anyone who reminds them of Dwayne Dibbley as prime minister.

Harsh but fair.

Less brutally, they won't elect anyone who reminds them of Michael Foot or Neil Kinnock. Miliband actually embodies the bad points of most Labour leaders of the last 40 years. He is the union puppet that Callaghan was, the loony lefty that Foot was, the priggish student politician that Kinnock was, the sanctimonious twerp that Smith was, the oily creep that Blair was, and the arrogant snob that Brown was.

Maybe this is his problem - he's a breath of stale air.

And still Miliband is within touching distance of number 10.

Voters are making other calculations as to whom the government should be in May. Tory caricatures don't really feature.

Bit late to turn that around now and focus on the Tory offer - does anyone know what that is by the way?

BenM said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Forget the pollsters, the columists, the soothsayers, and anything scientific and just remember one thing.

The British people just won't elect anyone who reminds them of Dwayne Dibbley as prime minister.

Harsh but fair.

Less brutally, they won't elect anyone who reminds them of Michael Foot or Neil Kinnock. Miliband actually embodies the bad points of most Labour leaders of the last 40 years. He is the union puppet that Callaghan was, the loony lefty that Foot was, the priggish student politician that Kinnock was, the sanctimonious twerp that Smith was, the oily creep that Blair was, and the arrogant snob that Brown was.

Maybe this is his problem - he's a breath of stale air.

And still Miliband is within touching distance of number 10.

Voters are making other calculations as to whom the government should be in May. Tory caricatures don't really feature.

Bit late to turn that around now and focus on the Tory offer - does anyone know what that is by the way?

As was Kinnock in touching distance of No 10

@TheWatcher
You win some you lose some. Cameron's buddies now have to be careful about calling Ed weak in future broadcast interviews.

Patrick said:

I hadn't clocked that Socrates is no longer around - but now you mention it, yes, seems a less shouty and argumentative place. What specifically did he do to get himself on the naughty step?

He was upset at muslims getting away with sexually abusing children in Rotherham and the moderators didn't like him talking about it

Maybe he is at a diversity awareness course?

Smarmeron said:

@TheWatcher
You win some you lose some. Cameron's buddies now have to be careful about calling Ed weak in future broadcast interviews.

Cameron won't be bullied by the TV companies, Ed won't be bullied by Len McClusky?

@CarlottaVance
You might find Cammo is less keen on that line of attack as well. But we will see.

BenM said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Latest Populus

Con 31 (-1) Lab 33 (-1) LD 8 (nc) UKIP 16 (+2) Greens 5 (nc)

http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_06-03-2015_BPC.pdf

Lab end the week ahead.

Who knew?

Scottish crosstab indicates a ghastly result for Scottish Labour.

58% for the SNP !!

Good to see Kezia doing her bit for PB bettors' portfolios last night.

On the flipside for Labour looking like they'll only be a few % behind in England.

@TheWatcher
Brave Dave seems not to want to make much of it either at the moment?
Odd, when the Mirror is not usually favourable for him?

isam said:

Patrick said:

I hadn't clocked that Socrates is no longer around - but now you mention it, yes, seems a less shouty and argumentative place. What specifically did he do to get himself on the naughty step?

He was upset at muslims getting away with sexually abusing children in Rotherham and the moderators didn't like him talking about it

Maybe he is at a diversity awareness course?

Bit harsh! He's right - we should make a noise about child rape shouldn't we?

@ThescreamingEagles How many seats do you think the Conservatives will win in Scotland - Ruth Davidson is a damn sight more convincing than the Labour lot at putting forward the unionist point to my mind.

0 25%
1 40%
2 25%
3 10%

Something like that ?

Morning all

On the debates, I've always said the last thing the Conservatives would want is for Cameron to face hostile public questionning on, for example, immigration. Within a seven-corner debate he would be helped by other leaders criticising each other - in the head to head or three-hander, it would be impossible to hide.

The other aspect and one we on here struggle to understand is that most people aren't interested in politics as we are and don't waste significant chunks of their lives telling a group of uninterested people how good our side is and how bad the other side is.

That said, they want and have a right to be involved - the debates worked well because they allocated a fixed amount of time in people's busy lives in advance for them to concentrate on the political process after which they can do the important things such as spending time with their families of de-worming the cat.

We on there don't care or don't rate them as important because our minds (well, those that have them) have been made up and all they do is re-enforce our prejudices and misconceptions. Many other people aren't like that and want to hear the arguments put forward.

Cameron's problem is he is not the "new kid on the block" (neither is Nick Clegg) from 2010 - they have to defend a record which is flawed in some key areas of public concern (see above). The other possibility which most on here will deride is when the public see and hear Ed Miliband they might not take to him as badly as the Daily Mail does and they might actually like what he has to say. Some may consider that a remote possibility and they may be right to do so but it's not one which CCHQ can afford to underestimate just as they plainly underestimated Nick Clegg's impact in 2010.

Though Ed isn't to everyone's taste there is a side of Dave that also turns people off. I think we saw it yesterday when he looked both slippery and Sloaney. He hides it well but if Labour could pinpoint it and then lampoon it it could be very effective.

Pulpstar said:

@ThescreamingEagles How many seats do you think the Conservatives will win in Scotland - Ruth Davidson is a damn sight more convincing than the Labour lot at putting forward the unionist point to my mind.

0 25%
1 40%
2 25%
3 10%

Something like that ?

I think 1 or 2.

But then again I wouldn't be surprised if it was 3 or zero.

BenM said:

philiph said:

BenM said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Forget the pollsters, the columists, the soothsayers, and anything scientific and just remember one thing.

The British people just won't elect anyone who reminds them of Dwayne Dibbley as prime minister.

Harsh but fair.

Less brutally, they won't elect anyone who reminds them of Michael Foot or Neil Kinnock. Miliband actually embodies the bad points of most Labour leaders of the last 40 years. He is the union puppet that Callaghan was, the loony lefty that Foot was, the priggish student politician that Kinnock was, the sanctimonious twerp that Smith was, the oily creep that Blair was, and the arrogant snob that Brown was.

Maybe this is his problem - he's a breath of stale air.

And still Miliband is within touching distance of number 10.

Voters are making other calculations as to whom the government should be in May. Tory caricatures don't really feature.

Bit late to turn that around now and focus on the Tory offer - does anyone know what that is by the way?

As was Kinnock in touching distance of No 10

Tories relying on pre 1992 polling as a crutch? That's interesting.

No. But they might be relying on Ed Miliband...

Hengists_Gift said:

Scott_P said:

@jameschappers: Sturgeon tells @guardian SNP can support minority Lab government on "case-by-case basis" *without* a deal on Trident. Appears v significant

Errrmmmm isn't that what they would do anyway with any government? What's happened to confidence and supply though?

Well they both settle as "minority" with the bookies

The clue is in the words 'labour voters' because they will still vote Labour and nothing would make them vote for the'popular' Tories ( LOL)! This is a non article because it does not signify anything which will change minds.

roserees64 said:

The clue is in the words 'labour voters' because they will still vote Labour

they will still vote labour

Let me introduce you to a concept you may be unfamiliar with: turnout

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Latest Populus

Con 31 (-1) Lab 33 (-1) LD 8 (nc) UKIP 16 (+2) Greens 5 (nc)

http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_06-03-2015_BPC.pdf

Peak kipper

Tut tut when will you learn?

Peak kipper is called only when ukip are doing badly... Hence my earlier comment about the thread topic.. Mug punters jump on whichever horse looks like it's going to win or has the momentum... Obviously the way to make money is to see these trends before they happen

But peak kipper is only called after it has supposedly happened... Until the next time

Actually the way the betting markets seem to work at the moment you can check which horse is ahead, back it and then still back the other horse if it appears to gain a couple of lengths and still remain with a good position.

CarlottaVance said:

John Major:

A Labour-SNP alliance would be a lethal cocktail for the United Kingdom. The two parties loathe and distrust one another in Scotland. At Westminster, SNP minds would not be focused on the well-being of the United Kingdom, but on their own party interests.

In collaboration, the two parties would make common cause at the expense of their natural enemies. For Labour, that will be to pick the pockets of the Tory Shires; and for the SNP, to boost Scotland at the expense of the rest of the UK.

I believe it is shameful that Labour have not already ruled out even the suggestion of such a partnership.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11452938/John-Major-It-is-shameful-that-Labour-hasnt-ruled-out-a-pact-with-the-SNP.html

Frit!

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

John Major:

A Labour-SNP alliance would be a lethal cocktail for the United Kingdom. The two parties loathe and distrust one another in Scotland. At Westminster, SNP minds would not be focused on the well-being of the United Kingdom, but on their own party interests.

In collaboration, the two parties would make common cause at the expense of their natural enemies. For Labour, that will be to pick the pockets of the Tory Shires; and for the SNP, to boost Scotland at the expense of the rest of the UK.

I believe it is shameful that Labour have not already ruled out even the suggestion of such a partnership.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11452938/John-Major-It-is-shameful-that-Labour-hasnt-ruled-out-a-pact-with-the-SNP.html

Frit!

Insightful critique......With UKIP manoeuvring in the North, Labour could be in a tricky position in 2020 if they've sold England down the river for SNP support.....

rcs1000 said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

rcs1000 said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

nigel4england said:

If the BBC are trying to discredit the Tories by featuring this as the lead story on their website I fear it will backfire:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31748422

Imagine if Ian Smiths Rhodesia still existed and had an immigration policy that allowed unrestricted immigration from Europe while strict limits were placed on immigrants from other continents.

We would have never heard the end of the screeches of "Racism2 from the left........

UK has such a discriminatory policy. UKIP want to abolish it in favour of one that treats all countries equally and dosen't give automatic preference to a batch of mainly white countries and the left denounce UKIP as racist......

That's not actually true. The proposal is to give preference to commonwealth immigrants.

Yes it is true. No one would get preference, unlike the current EU (ie mainly white) preference we have now.

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ukipdev/pages/983/attachments/original/1425477124/visa.png?1425477124

That's a poster.

Also, Australia has a specific policy that allows young British and Irish people to get working holiday visas. Official UKIP policy, as outlined by Nigel Farage, is to make our system more fair to people from the Commonwealth and to continue to offer young people from Australia and New Zealand working holiday visas.

Your contention that UKIP would have a colour or country blind working visa system is incorrect.

Surely any immigration we might have should prioritise people of British descent, as Israel and India do with their people? Allowing in rich people regardless of their background and values seems daft.

DavidL said:

I would think the Scottish tories will end up with 2 seats namely their current one and Berwickshire. I think they will be very close in Dumfries and Galloway and possibly in Kincardine but they risk being overtaken by the SNP in both seats.

A pretty poor return for nearly 500K votes but that is the way it goes up here.

Doubt it'll be close in Kincardine, the incumbent has been pushed into third but people on the doorstep will really struggle with the "Only the Conservatives can beat the SNP" argument on the doorstep. So it won't happen. For that reason it looks very secure for the SNP.

I added to the SNP at 10-11 and I can't see how their chance of taking the seat is only 55 odd%.

At least 70+

Smarmeron said:

@stodge
This election is being fought on the principle of "not losing" till after Easter, then going full tilt to the finish line.
Some elections are sprints, some are middle distance, and this one is a marathon, due to the FTP act.

Oddly enough, it's a sprint and nothing to do with FTPA. My recollection of the 2005 election is the date was leaked well in advance by the currant bun and the pre-election skirmishing began in the New Year.

Most election dates have been well known in advance either because the confident PM knows he or she will be re-elected after four years or the desperate PM is backed into a corner and has no other options.

The starting gun will be fired by the Budget and apart from Easter and assuming no Icelandic ash clouds intervene, it'll be full speed ahead from April 5th for five weeks of mindnumbing tedium and pointless niping on here.

Welcome to the General Election Handicap - a race for three year olds of all ages.

Mr. Pulpstar, I wonder if Conservatives achieving some second places in Scotland (to the SNP) might prove useful for the future, as has been suggested could be the case for UKIP (second to Labour) in northern English constituencies.

The Conservative in Scotland seat figure at the moment is extremely quantum. The more you can be certain about it the more likely tactical voting may occur to move it around.

Incidentally I did the sums right this time and Labour 0-20 seats is @1.26 decimal or approximately 1/4 in old money. If you are braver and got for 0-15 seats then it's @1.54 which is about 8/15.

antifrank said:

DavidL said:

I would think the Scottish tories will end up with 2 seats namely their current one and Berwickshire. I think they will be very close in Dumfries and Galloway and possibly in Kincardine but they risk being overtaken by the SNP in both seats.

A pretty poor return for nearly 500K votes but that is the way it goes up here.

The latest Scottish constituency polls for Lord Ashcroft are stunningly good for the SNP and stunningly bad for everyone else, the Conservatives included. I'm having a complete rethink about the outcome in Scotland and if I can get my thoughts together, I'll be putting another post up over the weekend.

It should start with "...anyone who was thinking of laying off their SNP bets is a moron"

Stephen Fisher's updated weekly projection of 2015 GE seats reflects the Tories' recent modest improvement in the polls, showing them winning 286 seats (+7 compared with last week) with Labour winning 278 (-5 seats) and the LibDems on 22 (-1) seats. The Tories are now shown as having a 55% chance of being the largest party with Labour on 45%.
There is an 86% chance of a Hung Parliament

TheScreamingEagles said:

Latest Populus

Con 31 (-1) Lab 33 (-1) LD 8 (nc) UKIP 16 (+2) Greens 5 (nc)

http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_06-03-2015_BPC.pdf

Tories outpoll Labour in Scotland! (Yes I know it's just a sub-sample.) And UKIP Vote still being heavily weighted against. 307 --> 236.

Smarmeron said:

@Alistair
The "morons" are those who never consider laying off their bets.

Laying off winners and letting losers run is gambler's worst habit.

peter_from_putney said:

Stephen Fisher's updated weekly projection of 2015 GE seats reflects the Tories' recent modest improvement in the polls, showing them winning 286 seats (+7 compared with last week) with Labour winning 278 (-5 seats) and the LibDems on 22 (-1) seats. The Tories are now shown as having a 55% chance of being the largest party with Labour on 45%.
There is an 86% chance of a Hung Parliament

Looks about right. This is going to come down to the results in barely 15 Con-Lab marginals IMHO. If Cameron can get these on side and in the high 290s he'll probably be able to hang onto power for another couple of years. If he's very lucky, a full-term.

Alistair said:

antifrank said:

DavidL said:

I would think the Scottish tories will end up with 2 seats namely their current one and Berwickshire. I think they will be very close in Dumfries and Galloway and possibly in Kincardine but they risk being overtaken by the SNP in both seats.

A pretty poor return for nearly 500K votes but that is the way it goes up here.

The latest Scottish constituency polls for Lord Ashcroft are stunningly good for the SNP and stunningly bad for everyone else, the Conservatives included. I'm having a complete rethink about the outcome in Scotland and if I can get my thoughts together, I'll be putting another post up over the weekend.

It should start with "...anyone who was thinking of laying off their SNP bets is a moron"

When the facts change, I change my opinions.

I don't think it has yet generally sunk in just how sensational the latest batch of Scottish constituency polls are and how they blew apart the emerging consensus of what the SNP coalition looks like.