politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : March 5th 2015
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : March 5th 2015
Brent (for the most part) has been a Conservative / Labour battleground. In fact the only time that the Liberal Democrats came to prominence in the area was in the 2006 local elections when they managed to win 27 seats (forcing the council into a state of No Overall Control) and becoming the largest party on the council and even that was on an unfair vote share.
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First ..... again!0
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Thank you Harry.
Now then, from the previous thread, why did the word "oubliette" spring into my mind?0 -
Talking up my book alert. I am putting every last scrap of betting cash into SNP based punts. I'm contemplating dumping a bit more on Labour 0-20 seats which I think is close to nailed on and is effectively backable at 1.2 at WillHill.0
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fpt
JEO - in what sense is London the engine of the entire UK economy? I can't believe it represents more than 20-25% of GDP. Many major businesses may be headquartered there but they are reliant on engines all over the UK to turn a profit. It obviously has a dominant role in terms of finance but treating that sector as though it's the engine of our economy is arguably what's helped to cause so many of our problems.
No doubt a fair few snobs would take the view that it's people sitting in boardrooms moving pieces on a chessboard that are creating all the wealth in the UK. Personally I tend more to the view that's it's the mass of the population distributed right across this island getting up early every morning that's the engine of the economy. Sadly globalisation as it's currently proceeding is leading to a total disrespect for ordinary workers who are easily tradable for 'more efficient' units.0 -
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
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Labour wants to 'teach the Muslim community a lesson for voting for Galloway' - ouch! the shambles of Lab's Bradford selection on #newsnight
Who saying this,kuenssberg or a labour person ?
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Laura Kuenssberg ✔ @bbclaurak
Lab rubbishes claim, but no doubt whole thing has been a mess-party insiders warn Bradford W chaos threatens votes across city #newsnight
Christ,if this gets out,labour in serious trouble in Bradford west.0 -
I walked past EdM's place this morning The house next door is for sale. Could be interesting in the lead up to the GE. The price may make a headline or two..0
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Vote GeorgeTykejohnno said:Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
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Labour wants to 'teach the Muslim community a lesson for voting for Galloway' - ouch! the shambles of Lab's Bradford selection on #newsnight
Who saying this,kuenssberg or a labour person ?
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Thanks again, Harry.
The Bocking seat looks a corker. Three way fight.
It will also be interesting to see the scale of Con-Lab movement in Brent.0 -
What a fine comensense reaction from big Eck on Sky about Cameron and the debates. He is not "scared " as the naive Milliband claims but "sleekit" in trying to get out from under and using the incompetence of Labour and Libs to justify it. He is also surely right that the broadcasters should empty chair Cameron to bring him into line.0
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Pulpstar said:
Vote GeorgeTykejohnno said:Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
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Labour wants to 'teach the Muslim community a lesson for voting for Galloway' - ouch! the shambles of Lab's Bradford selection on #newsnight
Who saying this,kuenssberg or a labour person ?
Well I was going to vote UKIP,but not standing in Bradford west ;-)Pulpstar said:
Vote GeorgeTykejohnno said:Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
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Labour wants to 'teach the Muslim community a lesson for voting for Galloway' - ouch! the shambles of Lab's Bradford selection on #newsnight
Who saying this,kuenssberg or a labour person ?0 -
isam said:
» show previous quotes
Have to disagree.. I see no need for a target, what would it achieve except to be used as a measure of failure?
As it is, even The Independent are writing columns praising UKIP stance on this
A measure of success? Yours is a very defeatist view and suggests you don't believe it can be achieved.
If targets are so wrong why have the party signed up to Osborne's (rather implausible) deficit reduction targets? Are you telling me that you think that is a mistake as well and instead UKIP should say "We're going to fix the deficit but we're not going to tell you when but we'll set up a commission to manage it?"
That will improve people's confidence in the party's ability to run the economy won't it?
What Farage was waffling about yesterday was non-sensical and contradictory.
PS And if the Indy of all papers (which is owned by an immigrant) is praising them then that should be ringing alarm bells!0 -
The broadcasters don't run the country,well not yet.scotslass said:What a fine comensense reaction from big Eck on Sky about Cameron and the debates. He is not "scared " as the naive Milliband claims but "sleekit" in trying to get out from under and using the incompetence of Labour and Libs to justify it. He is also surely right that the broadcasters should empty chair Cameron to bring him into line.
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The NY Times continues to stick it to Christie (or maybe it's a case of Christie continuing to give them ammo):
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/05/opinion/chris-christies-exxon-settlement-is-bad-for-new-jersey.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=Moth-Visible&module=inside-nyt-region®ion=inside-nyt-region&WT.nav=inside-nyt-region&_r=0
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Good spot although I'd be relaxed about covering the three lowest bands which in combination provide for Labour winning up to 15 seats and together returns odds of 0.54/1 with Hills. I feel it would be surprising were the red team to exceed this tally. DYOR.Alistair said:Talking up my book alert. I am putting every last scrap of betting cash into SNP based punts. I'm contemplating dumping a bit more on Labour 0-20 seats which I think is close to nailed on and is effectively backable at 1.2 at WillHill.
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The bottom line is that the UK doesn't really know how much of its economy is based in London. We can estimate it is MUCH lower than the 20% that is claimed because of the Head Office Effect.FrankBooth said:fpt
JEO - in what sense is London the engine of the entire UK economy? I can't believe it represents more than 20-25% of GDP. Many major businesses may be headquartered there but they are reliant on engines all over the UK to turn a profit. It obviously has a dominant role in terms of finance but treating that sector as though it's the engine of our economy is arguably what's helped to cause so many of our problems.
No doubt a fair few snobs would take the view that it's people sitting in boardrooms moving pieces on a chessboard that are creating all the wealth in the UK. Personally I tend more to the view that's it's the mass of the population distributed right across this island getting up early every morning that's the engine of the economy. Sadly globalisation as it's currently proceeding is leading to a total disrespect for ordinary workers who are easily tradable for 'more efficient' units.
For example, most whisky VAT and Excise Duty is booked as "London Revenue" because Diageo is based in London. This probably sucks about £3bn out of the GERS figures for "Scottish Revenue" Tesco is head officed in London and so all its VAT and Corp Tax is recorded as "London Revenue" even though most of it is not booked in London.
In reality London has the City, a casino bank which seems very good at avoiding tax. It is so good at avoiding tax that most of its money for Infrastructure comes out of the UK Infrastructure budget, so money allocated as "all UK spend" buys Crossrail, HS1 and HS2, the new London Sewer, the Olympics, etc, etc. I have no doubt the £3bn cost of restoring Parliament will be "UK Spending" even though all it does is push up the London economy and london property bubble while the rest of the country is neglected.
But that is the UK. It is why the UK needs to be dissolved.0 -
Of course they don't run the country. They do however have the absolute right to organise these debates in any way they see fit as long as they abide by the Electoral Commission rules and give all the parties a fair opportunity based on the guidelines on major and minor parties.Tykejohnno said:
The broadcasters don't run the country,well not yet.scotslass said:What a fine comensense reaction from big Eck on Sky about Cameron and the debates. He is not "scared " as the naive Milliband claims but "sleekit" in trying to get out from under and using the incompetence of Labour and Libs to justify it. He is also surely right that the broadcasters should empty chair Cameron to bring him into line.
As such they should hold the debates and should invite the party leaders (or for specific portfolios the ministers, shadows and party spokesmen) and if someone chooses not to attend then that is the politicians problem not the broadcasters.
What they should not allow is for Cameron, Miliband, Farage or anyone else to say 'I am not taking up your invitation and therefore you cannot have the event'.0 -
Thanks once more to Harry.Labour gains in either Kenton or Bocking augurs well for the ground game.
Off topic,an old friend of mine has sent me the 4 days trends analysis for Cheltenham.He is also willing to do all the research and post his selections for £28-refundable if there is a loss.This has been a very profitable venture in the past.My contact is an old stager brought up in the OLBG community-you must always give 3 reasons based on fact to warrant a wager.
I'll post but as Pete says DYOT.0 -
Kuenssberg is a Scottish Blairite, happy to destroy the lefties.Tykejohnno said:Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
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Labour wants to 'teach the Muslim community a lesson for voting for Galloway' - ouch! the shambles of Lab's Bradford selection on #newsnight
Who saying this,kuenssberg or a labour person ?0 -
Technical point. Its Ofcom's rules. The Electoral Commission have nothing to do with broadcast matters.Richard_Tyndall said:
Of course they don't run the country. They do however have the absolute right to organise these debates in any way they see fit as long as they abide by the Electoral Commission rules and give all the parties a fair opportunity based on the guidelines on major and minor parties.Tykejohnno said:
The broadcasters don't run the country,well not yet.scotslass said:What a fine comensense reaction from big Eck on Sky about Cameron and the debates. He is not "scared " as the naive Milliband claims but "sleekit" in trying to get out from under and using the incompetence of Labour and Libs to justify it. He is also surely right that the broadcasters should empty chair Cameron to bring him into line.
As such they should hold the debates and should invite the party leaders (or for specific portfolios the ministers, shadows and party spokesmen) and if someone chooses not to attend then that is the politicians problem not the broadcasters.
What they should not allow is for Cameron, Miliband, Farage or anyone else to say 'I am not taking up your invitation and therefore you cannot have the event'.0 -
Apologies. But I think the point remains the same.Hengists_Gift said:
Technical point. Its Ofcom's rules. The Electoral Commission have nothing to do with broadcast matters.Richard_Tyndall said:
Of course they don't run the country. They do however have the absolute right to organise these debates in any way they see fit as long as they abide by the Electoral Commission rules and give all the parties a fair opportunity based on the guidelines on major and minor parties.Tykejohnno said:
The broadcasters don't run the country,well not yet.scotslass said:What a fine comensense reaction from big Eck on Sky about Cameron and the debates. He is not "scared " as the naive Milliband claims but "sleekit" in trying to get out from under and using the incompetence of Labour and Libs to justify it. He is also surely right that the broadcasters should empty chair Cameron to bring him into line.
As such they should hold the debates and should invite the party leaders (or for specific portfolios the ministers, shadows and party spokesmen) and if someone chooses not to attend then that is the politicians problem not the broadcasters.
What they should not allow is for Cameron, Miliband, Farage or anyone else to say 'I am not taking up your invitation and therefore you cannot have the event'.
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There was a very interesting piece on this on Sunday Politics (Yorks and Lincs - which I pick up in my kitchen in Leics).Tykejohnno said:Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
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Labour wants to 'teach the Muslim community a lesson for voting for Galloway' - ouch! the shambles of Lab's Bradford selection on #newsnight
Who saying this,kuenssberg or a labour person ?
All about clan block voting in Bradford, with fairly open warfare between Labour supporters.
@HH: While I appreciate the GE will dominate the news, how many council seats are up for grabs at the same time? It would be interesting to see if LDs hold onto council seats.0 -
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I'm pretty sure Cheshunt is part of the London reporting region for the UK.john_zims said:@Dair
'Tesco is head officed in London and so all its VAT and Corp Tax is recorded as "London Revenue" even though most of it is not booked in London.'
Tesco head office is in Cheshunt in Hertfordshire.
Even then, our biggest engineering firm, Rolls Royce reports its entire (Derby based) business at its head office in the City of Westminster.0 -
This is not a Scottish issue, this is a UK issue. Every UK wide company with a head office in London ends up reporting its revenue as "regionally" London Revenue in the UK accounts. That's an issue for Wales, for the Midlands, for the North for the South West, etc., etc..Richard_Tyndall said:0 -
And you can't have the broadcasters giving it large that they might empty chair one of the political leaders before discussions took place.Richard_Tyndall said:
Of course they don't run the country. They do however have the absolute right to organise these debates in any way they see fit as long as they abide by the Electoral Commission rules and give all the parties a fair opportunity based on the guidelines on major and minor parties.Tykejohnno said:
The broadcasters don't run the country,well not yet.scotslass said:What a fine comensense reaction from big Eck on Sky about Cameron and the debates. He is not "scared " as the naive Milliband claims but "sleekit" in trying to get out from under and using the incompetence of Labour and Libs to justify it. He is also surely right that the broadcasters should empty chair Cameron to bring him into line.
As such they should hold the debates and should invite the party leaders (or for specific portfolios the ministers, shadows and party spokesmen) and if someone chooses not to attend then that is the politicians problem not the broadcasters.
What they should not allow is for Cameron, Miliband, Farage or anyone else to say 'I am not taking up your invitation and therefore you cannot have the event'.
I remember Blair/ A.campbell telling major,hague and howard to get lost on TV debates,I didn'thave a problem at the time with it,did you ? or any of the labour supporters on here calling Cameron a coward ?
(By the way,I know your not a labour supporter mr Tyndall ;-) )
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Should the broadcasters refuse to empty chair Cameron for the first two debates would not only be an affront to democracy but demonstrate how much the broadcast media in the UK is in bed with the Tories.scotslass said:What a fine comensense reaction from big Eck on Sky about Cameron and the debates. He is not "scared " as the naive Milliband claims but "sleekit" in trying to get out from under and using the incompetence of Labour and Libs to justify it. He is also surely right that the broadcasters should empty chair Cameron to bring him into line.
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Does London not mean England to a Scot?Richard_Tyndall said:0 -
It certainly does. That said I think that there is significant doubt as to whether the debate formats, particularly the revised formats of the debates, conform with Ofcom rules. I don't think they do and hence all the political posturing at the moment is just that; posturing.Richard_Tyndall said:
Apologies. But I think the point remains the same.Hengists_Gift said:
Technical point. Its Ofcom's rules. The Electoral Commission have nothing to do with broadcast matters.Richard_Tyndall said:
Of course they don't run the country. They do however have the absolute right to organise these debates in any way they see fit as long as they abide by the Electoral Commission rules and give all the parties a fair opportunity based on the guidelines on major and minor parties.Tykejohnno said:
The broadcasters don't run the country,well not yet.scotslass said:What a fine comensense reaction from big Eck on Sky about Cameron and the debates. He is not "scared " as the naive Milliband claims but "sleekit" in trying to get out from under and using the incompetence of Labour and Libs to justify it. He is also surely right that the broadcasters should empty chair Cameron to bring him into line.
As such they should hold the debates and should invite the party leaders (or for specific portfolios the ministers, shadows and party spokesmen) and if someone chooses not to attend then that is the politicians problem not the broadcasters.
What they should not allow is for Cameron, Miliband, Farage or anyone else to say 'I am not taking up your invitation and therefore you cannot have the event'.
The problem is Ofcom has not specifically considered the implications of the debates and revised it rules to reflect them. That's why we have this ongoing farce regarding their format. Ofcom need to take a much more active role in the debates by stating clearly what the criteria are for inclusion in the debates (although I think it is relatively clear if you read Ofcom's rules).0 -
Why can you not? The broadcasters are simply making clear that they are not going to be pushed around by the party leaders for their own political benefit. And yes I did have a problem with Blair refusing to debate. It is part of the arrogance of authority that infects our political classes (and I don't exclude UKIP, SNP or anyone else from that) and anything that cuts the rug out from underneath them is fine as far as I am concerned.Tykejohnno said:
And you can't have the broadcasters giving it large that they might empty chair one of the political leaders before discussions took place.Richard_Tyndall said:
Of course they don't run the country. They do however have the absolute right to organise these debates in any way they see fit as long as they abide by the Electoral Commission rules and give all the parties a fair opportunity based on the guidelines on major and minor parties.Tykejohnno said:
The broadcasters don't run the country,well not yet.scotslass said:What a fine comensense reaction from big Eck on Sky about Cameron and the debates. He is not "scared " as the naive Milliband claims but "sleekit" in trying to get out from under and using the incompetence of Labour and Libs to justify it. He is also surely right that the broadcasters should empty chair Cameron to bring him into line.
As such they should hold the debates and should invite the party leaders (or for specific portfolios the ministers, shadows and party spokesmen) and if someone chooses not to attend then that is the politicians problem not the broadcasters.
What they should not allow is for Cameron, Miliband, Farage or anyone else to say 'I am not taking up your invitation and therefore you cannot have the event'.
I remember Blair/ A.campbell telling major,hague and howard to get lost on TV debates,I didn'thave a problem at the time with it,did you ? or any of the labour supporters on here calling Cameron a coward ?
(By the way,I know your not a labour supporter mr Tyndall ;-) )0 -
I don't think they are in bed with the Tories. I think they are in bed with the establishment. As such they have tended in the past to do nothing that might rock the boat whether it is Labour or the Tories in power.Dair said:
Should the broadcasters refuse to empty chair Cameron for the first two debates would not only be an affront to democracy but demonstrate how much the broadcast media in the UK is in bed with the Tories.scotslass said:What a fine comensense reaction from big Eck on Sky about Cameron and the debates. He is not "scared " as the naive Milliband claims but "sleekit" in trying to get out from under and using the incompetence of Labour and Libs to justify it. He is also surely right that the broadcasters should empty chair Cameron to bring him into line.
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Interesting that it is the Washington Post and New York Times - both traditionally Dem friendly - that seem to be giving Hillary's latest two scandals the most legs. Here is another piece from the Post. This meme that the Dems need a serious slate of candidates for a proper primary instead of a coronation is gaining traction. Particularly interesting in this piece is that a Dem operative (admittedly an O'Malley fan) is quoted as saying that neither the emails nor the Foundation donations scandal is a tabloid scandal, but rather that both related to her work and to national security. Yikes, if your friends are saying that ...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/amid-clinton-controversies-democrats-yearn-for-an-alternative/2015/03/04/f782ec4e-c279-11e4-9271-610273846239_story.html0 -
Is there a TNS due today?0
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The Mirror frontpage has a nice picture of the embodiment of bravery(according to PB)0
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Jim Waterson ✔ @jimwaterson
Labour's bollocksed up Bradford and could lose two seats due to weird Galloway/religious/central party clash, says @bbclaurak & @jessbrammar
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I just accidentally saw a bit of eastenders and heard a woman banging on a tube station's closed entrance late at night, complaining loudly that Boris Johnson wouldn't let her in.
Hasn't Boris just decreed that the tube should be 24 hr?
I'd be amazed if I found out that any BBC show character had ever complained about Ken's tube policies..0 -
Five Tube lines will be all-night from SeptemberJonnyJimmy said:I just accidentally saw a bit of eastenders and heard a woman banging on a tube station's closed entrance late at night, complaining loudly that Boris Johnson wouldn't let her in.
Hasn't Boris just decreed that the tube should be 24 hr?
I'd be amazed if I found out that any BBC show character had ever complained about Ken's tube policies..0 -
Be funny if the election is so close that it costs Labour power.Tykejohnno said:
Jim Waterson ✔ @jimwaterson
Labour's bollocksed up Bradford and could lose two seats due to weird Galloway/religious/central party clash, says @bbclaurak & @jessbrammar
That said, I presume the vote won't be split enough to allow the Tories through the middle in either Bradford East or West, so whoever gets elected will work with Labour. For a (high) price....0 -
I was expecting it by now, but I think they maybe holding it over until tomorrow so as not to get lost in the Ashcroft polling.Sunil_Prasannan said:Is there a TNS due today?
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If there was a political story on the front page of the Daily Mail, I would have done the morning thread on it and embedded the front page into the thread header
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_Xd0XmXAAEhMAy.jpg0 -
How can Cameron stop the first two debates? All major parties (or none) are invited in each constituent country. There is no legal challenge, unless the broadcasters back off and allow the Tories to get their way, then Cameron will either be empty chaired in the first two debates or have to join in.
The third debate is the wild card. It needed to be before the Short Campaign but as it isn't it is open to challenge. It has Labour and the Tories, therefore all Major parties competing against them need to be included - SNP, Dead Parrots, Racists, Plaid. They can get away with excluding the Greens but Ofcom might just Major party them as they havent closed their decision yet.0 -
Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver
UKIP often dismissed as a threat in London, but the third most popular party there by a distance http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband-surges-in-london-election-battle-as-support-for-greens-slips-10087287.html …
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You don't get many of those parking fines to a pound!TheScreamingEagles said:If there was a political story on the front page of the Daily Mail, I would have done the morning thread on it and embedded the front page into the thread header
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_Xd0XmXAAEhMAy.jpg0 -
I quite like Cameron and Osborne and am normally very positive to them here, I don't think I've ever criticised either on this site ever before. But I'm very, very disappointed with Cameron over the debates. The 7-7-2 format was a great one for democracy in this country, relegating Lib-Dems and UKIP to the also-rans were they belong and finally a proper head-to-head between the two candidates to be PM.
There's some remarks here about how they're "too American", I grew up in Australia and debates were always a massive moment. Howard vs Keating (1996) when I was 14 was a moment that got me well and truly hooked on politics.
I don't even understand the logic of it. As the polls stand Labour will (undeservedly) get back into Downing Street, we as Conservatives should be taking every opportunity to turn that around. Cameron is far superior to Red Ed and should be able to defeat him in a head to head in the same way that he does IMO most weeks at PMQs and the same way as Cameron was far superior to Brown in the debates. Without the distraction of Clegg there, its a great opportunity both for our democracy and for Conservatives.
Rejecting the 4-party debates and getting these alternative suggestions was a masterstroke, if it had been accepted. But to reject these proposals? I'm very disappointed.0 -
I am all for Lab losing to more left wing parties.MarqueeMark said:
Be funny if the election is so close that it costs Labour power.Tykejohnno said:
Jim Waterson ✔ @jimwaterson
Labour's bollocksed up Bradford and could lose two seats due to weird Galloway/religious/central party clash, says @bbclaurak & @jessbrammar
That said, I presume the vote won't be split enough to allow the Tories through the middle in either Bradford East or West, so whoever gets elected will work with Labour. For a (high) price....
Circa 60 MPs to the left of LAB could only result in EICIPM frightening the shit out of the right.0 -
So should the beeb's flagship show be attacking Boris/Tories over this matter that they're actually addressing?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Five Tube lines will be all-night from SeptemberJonnyJimmy said:I just accidentally saw a bit of eastenders and heard a woman banging on a tube station's closed entrance late at night, complaining loudly that Boris Johnson wouldn't let her in.
Hasn't Boris just decreed that the tube should be 24 hr?
I'd be amazed if I found out that any BBC show character had ever complained about Ken's tube policies..0 -
Em bedded!!TheScreamingEagles said:If there was a political story on the front page of the Daily Mail, I would have done the morning thread on it and embedded the front page into the thread header
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_Xd0XmXAAEhMAy.jpg0 -
I'm tired and lazy, can someone tell me which general election it was when all those Irish Nationalists were elected to the Commons and ultimately ended The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland?0
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I wonder if these attacks on Cameron over the leaders debates will show in future polls and leadership polls ?0
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SWINGBACKTASTIC - Labour 4% in front.LOL!
Basil is in meltdown.0 -
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by four, their biggest lead since December: CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%0
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1918TheScreamingEagles said:I'm tired and lazy, can someone tell me which general election it was when all those Irish Nationalists were elected to the Commons and ultimately ended The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland?
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Cheers, wasn't there one earlier?Sunil_Prasannan said:
1918TheScreamingEagles said:I'm tired and lazy, can someone tell me which general election it was when all those Irish Nationalists were elected to the Commons and ultimately ended The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland?
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1918TheScreamingEagles said:I'm tired and lazy, can someone tell me which general election it was when all those Irish Nationalists were elected to the Commons and ultimately ended The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland?
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Gold standard.0
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1918, about 60 gains.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm tired and lazy, can someone tell me which general election it was when all those Irish Nationalists were elected to the Commons and ultimately ended The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland?
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TWO MONTHS TO SAVE CROSSOVER0
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Tonights YG Cameron the Coward bounce
EICIPM0 -
Sun PoliticsVerified account
@SunPolitics YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by four, their biggest lead since December: CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%
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Is there a Chicken Run on the Tory percentage?bigjohnowls said:Tonights YG Cameron the Coward bounce
EICIPM0 -
Croydon Council seems interesting
Hahahaha.The pollsters are playing with us it seems.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by four, their biggest lead since December: CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%
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Like tonights YG?Tykejohnno said:I wonder if these attacks on Cameron over the leaders debates will show in future polls and leadership polls ?
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#crashedandburned0
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If you want real misogyny, try the Islamic world. Or India.SeanT said:FFS
BBC News at Ten devotes 5 minutes to the "problem" of sexist chanting at football matches. e.g. "get yer tits out for the lads".
Yes, this is probably coarse and offensive, but is this one of the main examples of misogyny afflicting the UK today? Can no one think of anything slightly more serious?
This country is diseased. The BBC is particularly syphilitic.0 -
Ooof.0
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1918TheScreamingEagles said:I'm tired and lazy, can someone tell me which general election it was when all those Irish Nationalists were elected to the Commons and ultimately ended The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1918
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I think there maybe a thread coming up comparing the SNP to Sinn Fein.
What's the Edinburgh equivalent of the General Post Office?0 -
I listened to radio 5 earlier and thought exactly the same Mr T.SeanT said:FFS
BBC News at Ten devotes 5 minutes to the "problem" of sexist chanting at football matches. e.g. "get yer tits out for the lads".
Yes, this is probably coarse and offensive, but is this one of the main examples of misogyny afflicting the UK today? Can no one think of anything slightly more serious?
This country is diseased. The BBC is particularly syphilitic.
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CWU union asked to back Green candidate for Stoke Central
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-314912210 -
Jim Murphy refused an invite on Scotland Tonight. That says a lot.0
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The only defences to it that I can see are principled 'don't want the debates at all' ones, which we know for a fact Cameron doesn't believe in as he participated in the debates last time, so in terms of his political judgment really I'm just confused how he thought he could get a better deal (or that none at all was better for him) than what he managed to get handed to him.Philip_Thompson said:
Rejecting the 4-party debates and getting these alternative suggestions was a masterstroke, if it had been accepted. But to reject these proposals? I'm very disappointed.0 -
You Gov is nonsense . two days ago the Tories were 3 pts ahead. Now Labour are 4 ahead. It does not make sense. Either their methodology is questionable or the respondents are taking the piss.0
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Anthony Wells writes
(Regular readers will know this, but just to bring newer readers up to speed, the fieldwork for YouGov polls runs from about 5 o’clock one evening till about 3 o’clock the next day. This means the vast majority of the respondents tend to come overnight. If you are waiting to see if there is any polling effect from David Cameron’s announcement on the debate then you won’t see it this poll, which was mostly conducted before the announcement. Wait until the YouGov/Sunday Times poll.)0 -
Waverley station?TheScreamingEagles said:I think there maybe a thread coming up comparing the SNP to Sinn Fein.
What's the Edinburgh equivalent of the General Post Office?0 -
Look at the 8000 sample Ashcroft poll - Labour are 1% ahead I reckon.0
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From Gold Standard to in the bin in the matter of days.SquareRoot said:You Gov is nonsense . two days ago the Tories were 3 pts ahead. Now Labour are 4 ahead. It does not make sense. Either their methodology is questionable or the respondents are taking the piss.
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Broadcasters prepared to give in to Cameron on TV debates
Broadcasters believe prospect of 'empty chairing' David Cameron for the TV election debates is unrealistic, according to sources close to negotiations
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11453319/Broadcasters-prepared-to-give-in-to-Cameron-on-TV-debates.html0 -
Don't think the bad press be counted in tonights poll,maybe weekend or next week,5 to 6% lead ;-)bigjohnowls said:
Like tonights YG?Tykejohnno said:I wonder if these attacks on Cameron over the leaders debates will show in future polls and leadership polls ?
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OGH tweeted 4% lead yesterday - but how does he know???Pulpstar said:Look at the 8000 sample Ashcroft poll - Labour are 1% ahead I reckon.
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*** SWINGS GOALPOSTS IN THE AIR ****Tykejohnno said:
Don't think the bad press be counted in tonights poll,maybe weekend or next week,5 to 6% lead ;-)bigjohnowls said:
Like tonights YG?Tykejohnno said:I wonder if these attacks on Cameron over the leaders debates will show in future polls and leadership polls ?
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Or both are around 33/4 +/- 3 or thereabouts.SquareRoot said:You Gov is nonsense . two days ago the Tories were 3 pts ahead. Now Labour are 4 ahead. It does not make sense. Either their methodology is questionable or the respondents are taking the piss.
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You are talking bollocks too. You Gov does NOT make sense whichever party you may support. Its just doesn't.compouter2 said:
From Gold Standard to in the bin in the matter of days.SquareRoot said:You Gov is nonsense . two days ago the Tories were 3 pts ahead. Now Labour are 4 ahead. It does not make sense. Either their methodology is questionable or the respondents are taking the piss.
There is only one gold standard. ICM , irrespective of outliers.0 -
What did you predict?GIN1138 said:#crashedandburned
This has to be an outlier Methinks so would have been a miracle to predict a 4% lab lead
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#MiniFistPumpGIN1138 said:#crashedandburned
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LOLSeanT said:Cameron 4 points behind?
Wait for the Tory Leader Suddenly Interested In Debates Again Moment - should arrive any time soon.
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How are UKIP on 15% ???Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sun PoliticsVerified account
@SunPolitics YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by four, their biggest lead since December: CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%
Hasn't TGOHF been telling us that UKIP have been losing 1% per day for the last three months ?
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Tonights YG apparently too early for the cowardice bounce
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_Xc7CWWQAAC_TN.jpg0 -
Thats if you take with no typical turnout weighting. I weighted it by the latest Ashcroft using a 7/10 only 1*, 0.9*,0.8*,0.7* on the weighted numbers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
OGH tweeted 4% lead yesterday - but how does he know???Pulpstar said:Look at the 8000 sample Ashcroft poll - Labour are 1% ahead I reckon.
And applied no Don't know adjustment.
So the truth is probably somewhere between 4% and level.0 -
Now now, no need to bring some sense into this.welshowl said:
Or both are around 33/4 +/- 3 or thereabouts.SquareRoot said:You Gov is nonsense . two days ago the Tories were 3 pts ahead. Now Labour are 4 ahead. It does not make sense. Either their methodology is questionable or the respondents are taking the piss.
Still the Tory leads were fun while they lasted - I'd hoped for a few more days at least just to really spook Labour and get some Tory confidence up, who knows what could have been stirred up by that.0 -
There are plenty of more serious things for everyone to worry about, but the way football fans act does seem to be a barometer to how the masses act. If they're obscenely sexist, which they are, or racist, which they also seem to have been lately, then I think it's right that that is reflected back to make us all aware of it.SeanT said:FFS
BBC News at Ten devotes 5 minutes to the "problem" of sexist chanting at football matches. e.g. "get yer tits out for the lads".
Yes, this is probably coarse and offensive, but is this one of the main examples of misogyny afflicting the UK today? Can no one think of anything slightly more serious?
This country is diseased. The BBC is particularly syphilitic.
Do you think that a female physio out on the pitch patching up a player should have to put up with being harangued to get her tits out for the lads without it being raised in the media?0 -
@TheScreamingEagles
"Broadcasters prepared to give in to Cameron on TV debates"
It's in the Torygraph so it must be true.....and all the broadcast media are wrong.0 -
So, in the case of just one debate - how many do Sky show?
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Sorry. Forgot where I was :-)kle4 said:
Now now, no need to bring some sense into this.welshowl said:
Or both are around 33/4 +/- 3 or thereabouts.SquareRoot said:You Gov is nonsense . two days ago the Tories were 3 pts ahead. Now Labour are 4 ahead. It does not make sense. Either their methodology is questionable or the respondents are taking the piss.
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Last week YouGov were being criticised for their consistency!SquareRoot said:You Gov is nonsense . two days ago the Tories were 3 pts ahead. Now Labour are 4 ahead. It does not make sense. Either their methodology is questionable or the respondents are taking the piss.
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Funny I've been to a few games this season and not heard a single sexist chant. Typically the chants make fun of the other side, not women.JonnyJimmy said:
There are plenty of more serious things for everyone to worry about, but the way football fans act does seem to be a barometer to how the masses act. If they're obscenely sexist, which they are, or racist, which they also seem to have been lately, then I think it's right that that is reflected back to make us all aware of it.SeanT said:FFS
BBC News at Ten devotes 5 minutes to the "problem" of sexist chanting at football matches. e.g. "get yer tits out for the lads".
Yes, this is probably coarse and offensive, but is this one of the main examples of misogyny afflicting the UK today? Can no one think of anything slightly more serious?
This country is diseased. The BBC is particularly syphilitic.
Do you think that a female physio out on the pitch patching up a player should have to put up with being harangued to get her tits out for the lads without it being raised in the media?
EG as a Liverpool fan its common in Anfield to hear the away fans singing "Sign on, sign on" to the tune of YNWA. Get your tits out? Nope, not heard that at all.
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Labour ain't 4% ahead guys in case you're all wondering. But they are probably still ahead.
JUST.0 -
The Mound.TheScreamingEagles said:I think there maybe a thread coming up comparing the SNP to Sinn Fein.
What's the Edinburgh equivalent of the General Post Office?
And that would make it doubly relevant.0 -
That critisicm was being done by people who actually bet and like to see a few outliers to show the sample is random enough.Dair said:
Last week YouGov were being criticised for their consistency!SquareRoot said:You Gov is nonsense . two days ago the Tories were 3 pts ahead. Now Labour are 4 ahead. It does not make sense. Either their methodology is questionable or the respondents are taking the piss.
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