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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : March 5th 2015
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : March 5th 2015
Brent (for the most part) has been a Conservative / Labour battleground. In fact the only time that the Liberal Democrats came to prominence in the area was in the 2006 local elections when they managed to win 27 seats (forcing the council into a state of No Overall Control) and becoming the largest party on the council and even that was on an unfair vote share.
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Now then, from the previous thread, why did the word "oubliette" spring into my mind?
JEO - in what sense is London the engine of the entire UK economy? I can't believe it represents more than 20-25% of GDP. Many major businesses may be headquartered there but they are reliant on engines all over the UK to turn a profit. It obviously has a dominant role in terms of finance but treating that sector as though it's the engine of our economy is arguably what's helped to cause so many of our problems.
No doubt a fair few snobs would take the view that it's people sitting in boardrooms moving pieces on a chessboard that are creating all the wealth in the UK. Personally I tend more to the view that's it's the mass of the population distributed right across this island getting up early every morning that's the engine of the economy. Sadly globalisation as it's currently proceeding is leading to a total disrespect for ordinary workers who are easily tradable for 'more efficient' units.
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Labour wants to 'teach the Muslim community a lesson for voting for Galloway' - ouch! the shambles of Lab's Bradford selection on #newsnight
Who saying this,kuenssberg or a labour person ?
Laura Kuenssberg ✔ @bbclaurak
Lab rubbishes claim, but no doubt whole thing has been a mess-party insiders warn Bradford W chaos threatens votes across city #newsnight
Christ,if this gets out,labour in serious trouble in Bradford west.
The Bocking seat looks a corker. Three way fight.
It will also be interesting to see the scale of Con-Lab movement in Brent.
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Have to disagree.. I see no need for a target, what would it achieve except to be used as a measure of failure?
As it is, even The Independent are writing columns praising UKIP stance on this
A measure of success? Yours is a very defeatist view and suggests you don't believe it can be achieved.
If targets are so wrong why have the party signed up to Osborne's (rather implausible) deficit reduction targets? Are you telling me that you think that is a mistake as well and instead UKIP should say "We're going to fix the deficit but we're not going to tell you when but we'll set up a commission to manage it?"
That will improve people's confidence in the party's ability to run the economy won't it?
What Farage was waffling about yesterday was non-sensical and contradictory.
PS And if the Indy of all papers (which is owned by an immigrant) is praising them then that should be ringing alarm bells!
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/05/opinion/chris-christies-exxon-settlement-is-bad-for-new-jersey.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=Moth-Visible&module=inside-nyt-region®ion=inside-nyt-region&WT.nav=inside-nyt-region&_r=0
For example, most whisky VAT and Excise Duty is booked as "London Revenue" because Diageo is based in London. This probably sucks about £3bn out of the GERS figures for "Scottish Revenue" Tesco is head officed in London and so all its VAT and Corp Tax is recorded as "London Revenue" even though most of it is not booked in London.
In reality London has the City, a casino bank which seems very good at avoiding tax. It is so good at avoiding tax that most of its money for Infrastructure comes out of the UK Infrastructure budget, so money allocated as "all UK spend" buys Crossrail, HS1 and HS2, the new London Sewer, the Olympics, etc, etc. I have no doubt the £3bn cost of restoring Parliament will be "UK Spending" even though all it does is push up the London economy and london property bubble while the rest of the country is neglected.
But that is the UK. It is why the UK needs to be dissolved.
As such they should hold the debates and should invite the party leaders (or for specific portfolios the ministers, shadows and party spokesmen) and if someone chooses not to attend then that is the politicians problem not the broadcasters.
What they should not allow is for Cameron, Miliband, Farage or anyone else to say 'I am not taking up your invitation and therefore you cannot have the event'.
'Tesco is head officed in London and so all its VAT and Corp Tax is recorded as "London Revenue" even though most of it is not booked in London.'
Tesco head office is in Cheshunt in Hertfordshire.
Off topic,an old friend of mine has sent me the 4 days trends analysis for Cheltenham.He is also willing to do all the research and post his selections for £28-refundable if there is a loss.This has been a very profitable venture in the past.My contact is an old stager brought up in the OLBG community-you must always give 3 reasons based on fact to warrant a wager.
I'll post but as Pete says DYOT.
All about clan block voting in Bradford, with fairly open warfare between Labour supporters.
@HH: While I appreciate the GE will dominate the news, how many council seats are up for grabs at the same time? It would be interesting to see if LDs hold onto council seats.
Even then, our biggest engineering firm, Rolls Royce reports its entire (Derby based) business at its head office in the City of Westminster.
I remember Blair/ A.campbell telling major,hague and howard to get lost on TV debates,I didn'thave a problem at the time with it,did you ? or any of the labour supporters on here calling Cameron a coward ?
(By the way,I know your not a labour supporter mr Tyndall ;-) )
The problem is Ofcom has not specifically considered the implications of the debates and revised it rules to reflect them. That's why we have this ongoing farce regarding their format. Ofcom need to take a much more active role in the debates by stating clearly what the criteria are for inclusion in the debates (although I think it is relatively clear if you read Ofcom's rules).
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/amid-clinton-controversies-democrats-yearn-for-an-alternative/2015/03/04/f782ec4e-c279-11e4-9271-610273846239_story.html
Jim Waterson ✔ @jimwaterson
Labour's bollocksed up Bradford and could lose two seats due to weird Galloway/religious/central party clash, says @bbclaurak & @jessbrammar
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31749227
Hasn't Boris just decreed that the tube should be 24 hr?
I'd be amazed if I found out that any BBC show character had ever complained about Ken's tube policies..
That said, I presume the vote won't be split enough to allow the Tories through the middle in either Bradford East or West, so whoever gets elected will work with Labour. For a (high) price....
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_Xd0XmXAAEhMAy.jpg
The third debate is the wild card. It needed to be before the Short Campaign but as it isn't it is open to challenge. It has Labour and the Tories, therefore all Major parties competing against them need to be included - SNP, Dead Parrots, Racists, Plaid. They can get away with excluding the Greens but Ofcom might just Major party them as they havent closed their decision yet.
Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver
UKIP often dismissed as a threat in London, but the third most popular party there by a distance http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband-surges-in-london-election-battle-as-support-for-greens-slips-10087287.html …
There's some remarks here about how they're "too American", I grew up in Australia and debates were always a massive moment. Howard vs Keating (1996) when I was 14 was a moment that got me well and truly hooked on politics.
I don't even understand the logic of it. As the polls stand Labour will (undeservedly) get back into Downing Street, we as Conservatives should be taking every opportunity to turn that around. Cameron is far superior to Red Ed and should be able to defeat him in a head to head in the same way that he does IMO most weeks at PMQs and the same way as Cameron was far superior to Brown in the debates. Without the distraction of Clegg there, its a great opportunity both for our democracy and for Conservatives.
Rejecting the 4-party debates and getting these alternative suggestions was a masterstroke, if it had been accepted. But to reject these proposals? I'm very disappointed.
Circa 60 MPs to the left of LAB could only result in EICIPM frightening the shit out of the right.
Basil is in meltdown.
EICIPM
Sun PoliticsVerified account
@SunPolitics YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by four, their biggest lead since December: CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1918
What's the Edinburgh equivalent of the General Post Office?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31491221
(Regular readers will know this, but just to bring newer readers up to speed, the fieldwork for YouGov polls runs from about 5 o’clock one evening till about 3 o’clock the next day. This means the vast majority of the respondents tend to come overnight. If you are waiting to see if there is any polling effect from David Cameron’s announcement on the debate then you won’t see it this poll, which was mostly conducted before the announcement. Wait until the YouGov/Sunday Times poll.)
Broadcasters believe prospect of 'empty chairing' David Cameron for the TV election debates is unrealistic, according to sources close to negotiations
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11453319/Broadcasters-prepared-to-give-in-to-Cameron-on-TV-debates.html
There is only one gold standard. ICM , irrespective of outliers.
This has to be an outlier Methinks so would have been a miracle to predict a 4% lab lead
Hasn't TGOHF been telling us that UKIP have been losing 1% per day for the last three months ?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_Xc7CWWQAAC_TN.jpg
Still the Tory leads were fun while they lasted - I'd hoped for a few more days at least just to really spook Labour and get some Tory confidence up, who knows what could have been stirred up by that.
And applied no Don't know adjustment.
So the truth is probably somewhere between 4% and level.
Do you think that a female physio out on the pitch patching up a player should have to put up with being harangued to get her tits out for the lads without it being raised in the media?
"Broadcasters prepared to give in to Cameron on TV debates"
It's in the Torygraph so it must be true.....and all the broadcast media are wrong.
EG as a Liverpool fan its common in Anfield to hear the away fans singing "Sign on, sign on" to the tune of YNWA. Get your tits out? Nope, not heard that at all.
JUST.
And that would make it doubly relevant.