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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : March 5th 2015

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  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Pulpstar said:

    With all the focus on Bradford West, I hadn't understood quite what a mess the politics of Bradford East are. On paper it's a 3-way LibDem/Labour/Con marginal. In the real world it seems to be near incomprehensible, with a LibDem incumbent who has, how shall I put, certain 'issues' with one of the world's great religions, a Labour candidate who's a retread from the Bradford West disaster of 2012 but (according to the Guardian) is "a member of one of Bradford’s most powerful Kashmiri families", a Conservative candidate who looks to be well-connected, a UKIP candidate who doesn't quite fit the stereotype, but as yet no Respect candidate although that might change.

    Any value here?

    I've backed Labour here, but far too short !
    I'm wondering whether, given the fact that it looks a complete dog's breakfast, the 33/1 on either or both of Con/Respect might be worth a speculative flutter? Of course if Respect don't actually stand, that would mitigate against the bet being value...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    With all the focus on Bradford West, I hadn't understood quite what a mess the politics of Bradford East are. On paper it's a 3-way LibDem/Labour/Con marginal. In the real world it seems to be near incomprehensible, with a LibDem incumbent who has, how shall I put, certain 'issues' with one of the world's great religions, a Labour candidate who's a retread from the Bradford West disaster of 2012 but (according to the Guardian) is "a member of one of Bradford’s most powerful Kashmiri families", a Conservative candidate who looks to be well-connected, a UKIP candidate who doesn't quite fit the stereotype, but as yet no Respect candidate although that might change.

    Any value here?

    In terms of betting or in terms of humanity ?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362


    Guido Fawkes ✔ @GuidoFawkes

    .@campbellclaret on Cameron today: "pathetic... morally cowardly"

    In 2001: "The UK is not electing a president"

    http://order-order.com/2015/03/05/alastair-campbell-on-tv-debates-then-and-now/

    Campbell changed his mind in 14 years

    Cowardly Cameron did it in less than 14 hours (about 5)

    Debates at PMQs became single debate with at least 7 parties before the Manifestos are out or nothing within 5 hours.
    Wrong mr owls.cameron still wants a leaders debate,just one and with all other leaders but Campbell is the biggest hypocrite out there.

    If miliband was against the debates,campbell would still be saying what he said 14 years ago.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Given the howls of anguish from our Labour/LibDem/Kipper friends, it's becoming very hard to avoid the conclusion that Cameron must have played a blinder in this debates game.


    Only if voters don't draw the conclusion that he thinks his record will not stand up to 90 mins scrutiny.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    edited March 2015

    Given the howls of anguish from our Labour/LibDem/Kipper friends, it's becoming very hard to avoid the conclusion that Cameron must have played a blinder in this debates game.

    The response has been wild!

    Not see anything like it since the inheritance tax gambit in 2007! :open_mouth:
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    With all the focus on Bradford West, I hadn't understood quite what a mess the politics of Bradford East are. On paper it's a 3-way LibDem/Labour/Con marginal. In the real world it seems to be near incomprehensible, with a LibDem incumbent who has, how shall I put, certain 'issues' with one of the world's great religions, a Labour candidate who's a retread from the Bradford West disaster of 2012 but (according to the Guardian) is "a member of one of Bradford’s most powerful Kashmiri families", a Conservative candidate who looks to be well-connected, a UKIP candidate who doesn't quite fit the stereotype, but as yet no Respect candidate although that might change.

    Any value here?

    In terms of betting or in terms of humanity ?
    Betting of course!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    edited March 2015
    Hope he's OK...

    I was just reading at The Spectator about how he's planning to do a squeal to Blade Runner next year.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    FFS

    BBC News at Ten devotes 5 minutes to the "problem" of sexist chanting at football matches. e.g. "get yer tits out for the lads".

    Yes, this is probably coarse and offensive, but is this one of the main examples of misogyny afflicting the UK today? Can no one think of anything slightly more serious?

    This country is diseased. The BBC is particularly syphilitic.

    T

    Do you think that a female physio out on the pitch patching up a player should have to put up with being harangued to get her tits out for the lads without it being raised in the media?
    I hear the odd chant about the Refs Onanism, and a fair amount of bad language but cannot recall any sexist, racist or homophobic chanting at LCFC from either set of fans.

    I did rather like the chants at Raheem Stirling when he was laying on the grass of "He's so tired, so f***ing tired...." etc. Very droll!
    I've

    Is that ok?
    So Radio 4 is leading the news on a chorus of chants by a few people at a lower league game?

    That's pathetic.
    Is it ok that fans chant that way?
    No it isn't right but should the PC BBC be going big on this ?
    Why are you so obsessive? Who cares if a QUARTER OF A MILLION poor white British girls were raped and abused by mainly-Pakistani gangs of predatory and racist pedophiles?

    Don't you understand that 14 working class British men may have said "get yer tits out" in 2008?

    PRIORITIES. BBC LIBERAL PRIORITIES.
    How exactly would you deal with the sexual exploitation of young white girls by Muslims if you were in charge?
    Older men sexually or commercially exploiting young women of a different race and culture?

    Well. It is fine and dandy if...

    OK, let's spell this out.

    Rich older man pays young adult woman - very generously - for consensual but commercial sex.

    .
    Consensual? How do you know she hasn't been trafficked?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548


    Various apologists up thread must be a bit deaf and or blind. Certainly the abuse picked up by the mics on the BBC were blatant and disgusting.
    On the subject of the cheerleaders - do they get abuse at American Football games? It would be interesting to know. Do Rugby League fans or Rugby Union fans abuse female physios? In my experience - not, but I'm a bit out of date.
    There seems to be one word missing when it comes to these incidents - 'respect'. The abusers clearly have none, nor any self control. In terms of all kinds of abuse the absence of respect and of self control seems quite important to me.

    I'm also out of date - you leave the country and then your team goes and gets promoted to the top division. It was all stockport county and wrexham in my day!

    it's an interesting question. self-control is certainly lesser inside a football crowd. maybe that's why young lads like to go, to a certain degree. Even speaking personally, I've found myself using words in front of my father at a stoke match that I would never dream of using in front of him in any other context.

    As I remember the stoke city slickers weren't abused. just met with puzzlement or indifference. Like the appearance of a burger van at the ballet
    Part of the enjoyment of being part of a football crowd is being able to step outside of the polite conventions of daily life. This is particularly true of those who have to tow the line in their daily occupation.

    I do not shout abuse, but I understand the cathartic release of energy of those that do. Sanitise football crowds and we might as well all watch rugby.

  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Dair said:

    MP_SE said:


    Various apologists up thread must be a bit deaf and or blind. Certainly the abuse picked up by the mics on the BBC were blatant and disgusting.
    On the subject of the cheerleaders - do they get abuse at American Football games? It would be interesting to know. Do Rugby League fans or Rugby Union fans abuse female physios? In my experience - not, but I'm a bit out of date.
    There seems to be one word missing when it comes to these incidents - 'respect'. The abusers clearly have none, nor any self control. In terms of all kinds of abuse the absence of respect and of self control seems quite important to me.

    League has had female physios for at least 20 years, no "whoops" no discrimination. Football fans do it because the culture in football accepts it. I'm a Rangers fan, most of our fans are fucking scum you wouldn't let near your children or handicapped family members and I don't think that is a Rangers thing.

    One day it might improve, might be a long way out.
    Who will this 'scum' be voting for?

    The RL comment is mine to avoid confusion. I think female physios have been around for quite a few years in football as well. I have to say that my memory of the rather sad banter re female physios in RL was one of jealousy if the other sides was better looking than yours. I'm not sure if that shows respect or not.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    *** Betting post ***

    Perhaps the Welsh PBers might have an opinion but Ladbrokes are offering Evens on PC being below 3.5 MPs after the election.

    Relevant seats:

    Dwyfor - PC 22% lead over Con
    Carmarthen E - PC 10% over Lab
    Arfon - PC 6% lead over Lab

    Ceredigon - LD 22% lead over PC
    Ynys Mon - Lab 7% lead over PC
    Llanelli - Lab 12% lead over PC

    So does anyone expect PC to make gains ?

    I see no evidence myself.

    You may be unaware that the Lib Dems are struggling somewhat in this Parliament, and as such are merely 4/7 to hold Ceredigion: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ceredigion/winning-party
    So the LDs are still favourites to hold Ceredigon.

    Do you understand betting odds ?
    Nah, I'm clueless.

    The point is that PC have a solid chance in Ceredigion, a chance in Ynys Mon, and a puncher's chance in Llanelli. Putting them all together means a gain is probable (even allowing that they are related contingencies).

    However against that they may struggle to hold on to Arfon.

    Still, with evens available either side of 3.5 one or other almost has to be value and you are probably right in choosing the Unders.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Camden Lab hold

    Lab 1481 Con 243 Green 213 LD 96
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736


    Guido Fawkes ✔ @GuidoFawkes

    .@campbellclaret on Cameron today: "pathetic... morally cowardly"

    In 2001: "The UK is not electing a president"

    http://order-order.com/2015/03/05/alastair-campbell-on-tv-debates-then-and-now/

    Campbell changed his mind in 14 years

    Cowardly Cameron did it in less than 14 hours (about 5)

    Debates at PMQs became single debate with at least 7 parties before the Manifestos are out or nothing within 5 hours.
    Wrong mr owls.cameron still wants a leaders debate,just one and with all other leaders but Campbell is the biggest hypocrite out there.

    If miliband was against the debates,campbell would still be saying what he said 14 years ago.

    He said debates plural at 12.10 single debate with at least seven parties and before the manifestos published by 17.15.

    Nest week it will be Ed has to stand on one leg and have a full size picture of Toby Perkins next to him in order for Dave to take part.

    FRIT!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    FFS

    BBC News at Ten devotes 5 minutes to the "problem" of sexist chanting at football matches. e.g. "get yer tits out for the lads".

    Yes, this is probably coarse and offensive, but is this one of the main examples of misogyny afflicting the UK today? Can no one think of anything slightly more serious?

    This country is diseased. The BBC is particularly syphilitic.

    T

    Do you think that a female physio out on the pitch patching up a player should have to put up with being harangued to get her tits out for the lads without it being raised in the media?
    I hear the odd chant about the Refs Onanism, and a fair amount of bad language but cannot recall any sexist, racist or homophobic chanting at LCFC from either set of fans.

    I did rather like the chants at Raheem Stirling when he was laying on the grass of "He's so tired, so f***ing tired...." etc. Very droll!
    I've

    Is that ok?
    So Radio 4 is leading the news on a chorus of chants by a few people at a lower league game?

    That's pathetic.
    Is it ok that fans chant that way?
    No it isn't right but should the PC BBC be going big on this ?
    Why are you so obsessive? Who cares if a QUARTER OF A MILLION poor white British girls were raped and abused by mainly-Pakistani gangs of predatory and racist pedophiles?

    Don't you understand that 14 working class British men may have said "get yer tits out" in 2008?

    PRIORITIES. BBC LIBERAL PRIORITIES.
    How exactly would you deal with the sexual exploitation of young white girls by Muslims if you were in charge?
    Older men sexually or commercially exploiting young women of a different race and culture?

    Well. It is fine and dandy if...

    OK, let's spell this out.

    Rich older man pays young adult woman - very generously - for consensual but commercial sex.

    Minicab driver literally brands 13 year old girl with his name after grooming her and sharing her with 19 violent friends because he sees her as "easy white meat", then rapes her with a bottle.

    You may decry both examples, and fair play, if that is your ethical code. But if you cannot discern a huge moral difference then I suggest that the problem is mainly in your smallish brain.
    The pimp behaves badly, often criminally so. The John convinces himself that it is all consensual with a youngster who has freely chosen the life. Twas ever so.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    This Week has Cage on - Neil has been waiting for this.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    GIN1138 said:

    Hope he's OK...

    I was just reading at The Spectator about how he's planning to do a squeal to Blade Runner next year.

    He's just come back from a badly broken leg,like you say,hope he's ok.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Pulpstar's QT Scores:

    Hamza 8/10
    Davidson 8/10
    Alexander 6/10
    Dugdale 3/10
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    edited March 2015

    Given the howls of anguish from our Labour/LibDem/Kipper friends, it's becoming very hard to avoid the conclusion that Cameron must have played a blinder in this debates game.


    Only if voters don't draw the conclusion that he thinks his record will not stand up to 90 mins scrutiny.
    Quite. There are also those like me, who would prefer Cameron be PM than Ed M, who think he played a blinder (I was genuinely surprised that he seemed to have gotten everything he wanted in a format which maximised what chances he had) and has now thrown it away (even if it does not follow that he will be definitely damaged by this), but let's pretend it's only people who dislike Cameron who have issues with his position on this, it's easier that way.

    Night all.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Andrew Neale ridiculing cowardly Cameron as we speak
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012


    Various apologists up thread must be a bit deaf and or blind. Certainly the abuse picked up by the mics on the BBC were blatant and disgusting.
    On the subject of the cheerleaders - do they get abuse at American Football games? It would be interesting to know. Do Rugby League fans or Rugby Union fans abuse female physios? In my experience - not, but I'm a bit out of date.
    There seems to be one word missing when it comes to these incidents - 'respect'. The abusers clearly have none, nor any self control. In terms of all kinds of abuse the absence of respect and of self control seems quite important to me.

    I'm also out of date - you leave the country and then your team goes and gets promoted to the top division. It was all stockport county and wrexham in my day!

    it's an interesting question. self-control is certainly lesser inside a football crowd. maybe that's why young lads like to go, to a certain degree. Even speaking personally, I've found myself using words in front of my father at a stoke match that I would never dream of using in front of him in any other context.

    As I remember the stoke city slickers weren't abused. just met with puzzlement or indifference. Like the appearance of a burger van at the ballet
    Perverse peer pressure? Its easy to be 'brave' in a crowd, in the expectation you can get away with it. The tone of what I heard at (admittedly brief) times on the news was I think quite nasty.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Dair said:

    This Week has Cage on - Neil has been waiting for this.

    Must pick up a bottle of the blue stuff on the way home from work, sounds like it'll be a good'un.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar's QT Scores:

    Hamza 8/10
    Davidson 8/10
    Alexander 6/10
    Dugdale 3/10

    Toby?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Very solid resistance to a Tory drift on betfair. I laid 1.61 when the poll came out and the 1.62 was heavily laid too, but more money wanting to back at 1.62 has appeared.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386

    GIN1138 said:

    Hope he's OK...

    I was just reading at The Spectator about how he's planning to do a squeal to Blade Runner next year.

    He's just come back from a badly broken leg,like you say,hope he's ok.

    Yeah, had a door from the Millennium Falcon fall on him...

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    MP_SE said:


    Various apologists up thread must be a bit deaf and or blind. Certainly the abuse picked up by the mics on the BBC were blatant and disgusting.
    On the subject of the cheerleaders - do they get abuse at American Football games? It would be interesting to know. Do Rugby League fans or Rugby Union fans abuse female physios? In my experience - not, but I'm a bit out of date.
    There seems to be one word missing when it comes to these incidents - 'respect'. The abusers clearly have none, nor any self control. In terms of all kinds of abuse the absence of respect and of self control seems quite important to me.

    League has had female physios for at least 20 years, no "whoops" no discrimination. Football fans do it because the culture in football accepts it. I'm a Rangers fan, most of our fans are fucking scum you wouldn't let near your children or handicapped family members and I don't think that is a Rangers thing.

    One day it might improve, might be a long way out.
    Who will this 'scum' be voting for?

    The RL comment is mine to avoid confusion. I think female physios have been around for quite a few years in football as well. I have to say that my memory of the rather sad banter re female physios in RL was one of jealousy if the other sides was better looking than yours. I'm not sure if that shows respect or not.
    Rl had female physios in the early nineties. Its not a new thing in the game and was never a big "issue" in the game. RL is the best sport never to make it as mainstream.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Dair said:

    This Week has Cage on - Neil has been waiting for this.

    Portillos moment of the week: the Morecambe Bay hospital scandal from 2006 -10. No reaction from the Minister of Health of the time who was sitting on the same sofa.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Bocking result Con gain from UKIP

    Con 1071 Lab 974 UKIP 855 Green 165 Ind 58
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Here we go. Andrew Neil's entire career in 5 minutes.
  • *** Betting post ***

    Perhaps the Welsh PBers might have an opinion but Ladbrokes are offering Evens on PC being below 3.5 MPs after the election.

    Relevant seats:

    Dwyfor - PC 22% lead over Con
    Carmarthen E - PC 10% over Lab
    Arfon - PC 6% lead over Lab

    Ceredigon - LD 22% lead over PC
    Ynys Mon - Lab 7% lead over PC
    Llanelli - Lab 12% lead over PC

    So does anyone expect PC to make gains ?

    I see no evidence myself.

    You may be unaware that the Lib Dems are struggling somewhat in this Parliament, and as such are merely 4/7 to hold Ceredigion: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ceredigion/winning-party
    So the LDs are still favourites to hold Ceredigon.

    Do you understand betting odds ?
    Nah, I'm clueless.

    The point is that PC have a solid chance in Ceredigion, a chance in Ynys Mon, and a puncher's chance in Llanelli. Putting them all together means a gain is probable (even allowing that they are related contingencies).

    However against that they may struggle to hold on to Arfon.

    Still, with evens available either side of 3.5 one or other almost has to be value and you are probably right in choosing the Unders.
    You should have told him your day job.

    I think Another_richard's comment should go into PB legend, like Roger's "no"
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Croydon Lab hold

    Lab 1517 Con 246 Green 148 UKIP 147 LD 65
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar's QT Scores:

    Hamza 8/10
    Davidson 8/10
    Alexander 6/10
    Dugdale 3/10

    Toby?
    I'll give him 6.5. Got better towards the end.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    FFS

    BBC

    This country is diseased. The BBC is particularly syphilitic.

    T

    Do you think that a female physio out on the pitch patching up a player should have to put up with being harangued to get her tits out for the lads without it being raised in the media?


    I did rather like the chants at Raheem Stirling when he was laying on the grass of "He's so tired, so f***ing tired...." etc. Very droll!
    I've

    Is that ok?
    So Radio 4 is leading the news on a chorus of chants by a few people at a lower league game?

    That's pathetic.
    Is it ok that fans chant that way?
    No it isn't right but should the PC BBC be going big on this ?
    Why are you so obsessive? Who cares if a QUARTER OF A MILLION poor white British girls were raped and abused by mainly-Pakistani gangs of predatory and racist pedophiles?

    Don't you understand that 14 working class British men may have said "get yer tits out" in 2008?

    PRIORITIES. BBC LIBERAL PRIORITIES.
    How exactly would you deal with the sexual exploitation of young white girls by Muslims if you were in charge?
    Older men sexually or commercially exploiting young women of a different race and culture?

    Well. It is fine and dandy if...



    You may decry both examples, and fair play, if that is your ethical code. But if you cannot discern a huge moral difference then I suggest that the problem is mainly in your smallish brain.
    The pimp behaves badly, often criminally so. The John convinces himself that it is all consensual with a youngster who has freely chosen the life. Twas ever so.
    See my comment downthread, With dating websites - many of which, today, promise beautiful foreign brides for desperate western men - you have no idea who is being coerced or pressured or pimped or gulled: man or woman?

    So your moral divisions are otiose and absurd.

    But the white girls of Rotherham and Oxford and elsewhere are 13 years old and they are clearly being RAPED. You seek to blur this and divert attention. I begin to wonder why.
    I have always and consistently deplored sexual abuse on this website. I have also consistently pointed out the Islamic connection.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    RN

    "Given the howls of anguish from our Labour/LibDem/Kipper friends, it's becoming very hard to avoid the conclusion that Cameron must have played a blinder in this debates game."

    Not since the 50p tax reduction have the Tories played such a blinder.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    *** Betting post ***

    Perhaps the Welsh PBers might have an opinion but Ladbrokes are offering Evens on PC being below 3.5 MPs after the election.

    Relevant seats:

    Dwyfor - PC 22% lead over Con
    Carmarthen E - PC 10% over Lab
    Arfon - PC 6% lead over Lab

    Ceredigon - LD 22% lead over PC
    Ynys Mon - Lab 7% lead over PC
    Llanelli - Lab 12% lead over PC

    So does anyone expect PC to make gains ?

    I see no evidence myself.

    You may be unaware that the Lib Dems are struggling somewhat in this Parliament, and as such are merely 4/7 to hold Ceredigion: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ceredigion/winning-party
    So the LDs are still favourites to hold Ceredigon.

    Do you understand betting odds ?
    Nah, I'm clueless.

    The point is that PC have a solid chance in Ceredigion, a chance in Ynys Mon, and a puncher's chance in Llanelli. Putting them all together means a gain is probable (even allowing that they are related contingencies).

    However against that they may struggle to hold on to Arfon.

    Still, with evens available either side of 3.5 one or other almost has to be value and you are probably right in choosing the Unders.
    If you think PC have a solid chance in Ceredigion you have to explain how there was actually a swing there in the 2011 Welsh Assembly elections from PC to the Lib Dems .
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    edited March 2015


    Out of curiosity Nick but if you win in May will you be the oldest new MP ?

    And if so does that get you any sort of unofficial title corresponding to 'Father of the House' or 'Baby of the House' ?

    Don't know, but someone (Mark Senior?) said I'd be the oldest "new" entrant since the war. Don't think there is a title for it, but there may be several born-again maidens. Broxtowe is a bit unusual in the age of its contestants - AS is I think 58, I'm 65, and the expected LD is older than me. However, I still canvass younger helpers into the ground. I especially enjoyed going out with someone who'd recently completed an "Iron Man" triathlon. After we'd done just half an hour in a light freezing drizzle after dark, he GAVE UP.

    Pah.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2015

    chestnut said:

    SeanT said:

    Cameron 4 points behind?

    Wait for the Tory Leader Suddenly Interested In Debates Again Moment - should arrive any time soon.

    Who owns Sky?

    Who sponsors Yougov?
    You're suggesting that YouGov fakes its figures to please Murdoch by encouraging a debate that Sky might show? lol.
    JSpring said:

    ICM would be showing similarly unusual movements if it were a daily tracking pollster like YouGov is. An occasional oddly large Labour/Tory lead is to be expected in a daily tracker (assuming that the overall picture is a virtual tie), given that the margin of error 3-4% (per party %). With daily trackers one should pay attention to the trend (i.e. take the average of 5-7 or so individual VI polls) rather than put too much stock into a single poll.

    That's right. But some here were getting carried away after a couple of Tory leads. My theory FWIW remains what it's been for months - Labour has a small lead and neither party is moving much 'cos these are core votes.

    Out of curiosity Nick but if you win in May will you be the oldest new MP ?

    And if so does that get you any sort of unofficial title corresponding to 'Father of the House' or 'Baby of the House' ?
    No, but the oldest re-tread since the War.

    ergo "Re-tread of the House"/Re-tread of the Century...

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    *** Betting post ***

    Perhaps the Welsh PBers might have an opinion but Ladbrokes are offering Evens on PC being below 3.5 MPs after the election.

    Relevant seats:

    Dwyfor - PC 22% lead over Con
    Carmarthen E - PC 10% over Lab
    Arfon - PC 6% lead over Lab

    Ceredigon - LD 22% lead over PC
    Ynys Mon - Lab 7% lead over PC
    Llanelli - Lab 12% lead over PC

    So does anyone expect PC to make gains ?

    I see no evidence myself.

    You may be unaware that the Lib Dems are struggling somewhat in this Parliament, and as such are merely 4/7 to hold Ceredigion: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ceredigion/winning-party
    So the LDs are still favourites to hold Ceredigon.

    Do you understand betting odds ?
    Nah, I'm clueless.

    The point is that PC have a solid chance in Ceredigion, a chance in Ynys Mon, and a puncher's chance in Llanelli. Putting them all together means a gain is probable (even allowing that they are related contingencies).

    However against that they may struggle to hold on to Arfon.

    Still, with evens available either side of 3.5 one or other almost has to be value and you are probably right in choosing the Unders.
    If you think PC have a solid chance in Ceredigion you have to explain how there was actually a swing there in the 2011 Welsh Assembly elections from PC to the Lib Dems .
    I think they have a chance because the odds say they do. If you disagree you know what to do.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    edited March 2015
    RodCrosby said:

    chestnut said:

    SeanT said:

    Cameron 4 points behind?

    Wait for the Tory Leader Suddenly Interested In Debates Again Moment - should arrive any time soon.

    Who owns Sky?

    Who sponsors Yougov?
    You're suggesting that YouGov fakes its figures to please Murdoch by encouraging a debate that Sky might show? lol.
    JSpring said:

    ICM would be showing similarly unusual movements if it were a daily tracking pollster like YouGov is. An occasional oddly large Labour/Tory lead is to be expected in a daily tracker (assuming that the overall picture is a virtual tie), given that the margin of error 3-4% (per party %). With daily trackers one should pay attention to the trend (i.e. take the average of 5-7 or so individual VI polls) rather than put too much stock into a single poll.

    That's right. But some here were getting carried away after a couple of Tory leads. My theory FWIW remains what it's been for months - Labour has a small lead and neither party is moving much 'cos these are core votes.

    Out of curiosity Nick but if you win in May will you be the oldest new MP ?

    And if so does that get you any sort of unofficial title corresponding to 'Father of the House' or 'Baby of the House' ?
    No, but the oldest re-tread since the War.

    ergo "Re-tread of the House"

    Rod, your back! Whats going on Re. swingback! :open_mouth:

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Andrew Neil having fun here.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    With all the focus on Bradford West, I hadn't understood quite what a mess the politics of Bradford East are. On paper it's a 3-way LibDem/Labour/Con marginal. In the real world it seems to be near incomprehensible, with a LibDem incumbent who has, how shall I put, certain 'issues' with one of the world's great religions, a Labour candidate who's a retread from the Bradford West disaster of 2012 but (according to the Guardian) is "a member of one of Bradford’s most powerful Kashmiri families", a Conservative candidate who looks to be well-connected, a UKIP candidate who doesn't quite fit the stereotype, but as yet no Respect candidate although that might change.

    Any value here?

    In terms of betting or in terms of humanity ?
    Betting of course!
    The only thing which you can be sure of in Bradford elections is that the Conservatives will never win Bradford South.

    Even the local Big Wensyledale David Herdson got East and West wrong in 2010.

    David Ward's votes this year are going to be some of the most unsavoury ever, coming from Jew hating Muslims and Pakistani hating white voters.

    As to how everyone else votes its well beyond my knowledge level but the Con and UKIP longshots are certainly better value as Bradford South could easily be won on under 30% of the vote.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Andrew Neil having fun here.

    Personally, I'd have stood up, hit him in the face then pounded him with more hits while he was on the ground.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar's QT Scores:

    Hamza 8/10
    Davidson 8/10
    Alexander 6/10
    Dugdale 3/10

    What about Toby and the novelist lady?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited March 2015
    Time for the irrelevant Miranda Green to be replaced by Rosanna Cunnigham.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759


    Out of curiosity Nick but if you win in May will you be the oldest new MP ?

    And if so does that get you any sort of unofficial title corresponding to 'Father of the House' or 'Baby of the House' ?

    Don't know, but someone (Mark Senior?) said I'd be the oldest "new" entrant since the war. Don't think there is a title for it, but there may be several born-again maidens. Broxtowe is a bit unusual in the age of its contestants - AS is I think 58, I'm 65, and the expected LD is older than me. However, I still canvass younger helpers into the ground. I especially enjoyed going out with someone who'd recently completed an "Iron Man" triathlon. After we'd done just half an hour in a light freezing drizzle after dark, he GAVE UP.

    Pah.
    Perhaps he was just too polite to say he was bored.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    FFS

    BBC News at Ten devotes 5 minutes to the "problem" of sexist chanting at football matches. e.g. "get yer tits out for the lads".

    Yes, this is probably coarse and offensive, but is this one of the main examples of misogyny afflicting the UK today? Can no one think of anything slightly more serious?

    This country is diseased. The BBC is particularly syphilitic.

    T

    Do you think that a female physio out on the pitch patching up a player should have to put up with being harangued to get her tits out for the lads without it being raised in the media?
    I hear the odd chant about the Refs Onanism, and a fair amount of bad language but cannot recall any sexist, racist or homophobic chanting at LCFC from either set of fans.

    I did rather like the chants at Raheem Stirling when he was laying on the grass of "He's so tired, so f***ing tired...." etc. Very droll!
    I've

    Is that ok?
    So Radio 4 is leading the news on a chorus of chants by a few people at a lower league game?

    That's pathetic.
    Is it ok that fans chant that way?
    No it isn't right but should the PC BBC be going big on this ?
    Why are you so obsessive? Who cares if a QUARTER OF A MILLION poor white British girls were raped and abused by mainly-Pakistani gangs of predatory and racist pedophiles?

    Don't you understand that 14 working class British men may have said "get yer tits out" in 2008?

    PRIORITIES. BBC LIBERAL PRIORITIES.
    How exactly would you deal with the sexual exploitation of young white girls by Muslims if you were in charge?
    Older men sexually or commercially exploiting young women of a different race and culture?

    Well. It is fine and dandy if...

    OK, let's spell this out.

    Rich older man pays young adult woman - very generously - for consensual but commercial sex.

    .
    Consensual? How do you know she hasn't been trafficked?
    If you meet a foreign girl on a dating website, looking for a "nice European man", how do you know she isn't a trafficked woman, being secretly pimped?

    Answer: you don't.
    So it's OK to pay trafficked women (actually, their pimps) for sex?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    I've got it wrong about ukip not standing no one in Bradford west,even mr Eagles would be proud of this candidate of ukip,my votes back on ;-)

    UKIP have announced their candidates for the general election for Bradford East and Bradford West

    http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/11717760.Election_candidates_announced/?ref=twtrec
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737


    David Ward's votes this year are going to be some of the most unsavoury ever, coming from Jew hating Muslims and Pakistani hating white voters.

    Rather than from people of all creeds who prefer an independent-thinker who speaks his own mind, despite the snipes of snivelling idiots?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    *** Betting post ***

    Perhaps the Welsh PBers might have an opinion but Ladbrokes are offering Evens on PC being below 3.5 MPs after the election.

    Relevant seats:

    Dwyfor - PC 22% lead over Con
    Carmarthen E - PC 10% over Lab
    Arfon - PC 6% lead over Lab

    Ceredigon - LD 22% lead over PC
    Ynys Mon - Lab 7% lead over PC
    Llanelli - Lab 12% lead over PC

    So does anyone expect PC to make gains ?

    I see no evidence myself.

    You may be unaware that the Lib Dems are struggling somewhat in this Parliament, and as such are merely 4/7 to hold Ceredigion: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ceredigion/winning-party
    So the LDs are still favourites to hold Ceredigon.

    Do you understand betting odds ?
    Nah, I'm clueless.

    The point is that PC have a solid chance in Ceredigion, a chance in Ynys Mon, and a puncher's chance in Llanelli. Putting them all together means a gain is probable (even allowing that they are related contingencies).

    However against that they may struggle to hold on to Arfon.

    Still, with evens available either side of 3.5 one or other almost has to be value and you are probably right in choosing the Unders.
    You should have told him your day job.

    I think Another_richard's comment should go into PB legend, like Roger's "no"
    A rather important difference being that Roger was shown to be wrong while what I wrote is right.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited March 2015

    I've got it wrong about ukip not standing no one in Bradford west,even mr Eagles would be proud of this candidate of ukip,my votes back on ;-)

    UKIP have announced their candidates for the general election for Bradford East and Bradford West

    http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/11717760.Election_candidates_announced/?ref=twtrec

    Oh I don't know.

    He's a former Lib Dem :-)

    I think parliament definitely needs more people who have been in the armed forces.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    RodCrosby said:


    David Ward's votes this year are going to be some of the most unsavoury ever, coming from Jew hating Muslims and Pakistani hating white voters.

    Rather than from people of all creeds who prefer an independent-thinker who speaks his own mind, despite the snipes of snivelling idiots?
    I can see that demographic being a major factor in Bradford East.
    .
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    SMukesh said:

    <

    Perhaps he was just too polite to say he was bored.

    Well...he was the candidate!

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited March 2015

    I've got it wrong about ukip not standing no one in Bradford west,even mr Eagles would be proud of this candidate of ukip,my votes back on ;-)

    UKIP have announced their candidates for the general election for Bradford East and Bradford West

    http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/11717760.Election_candidates_announced/?ref=twtrec

    Oh I don't know.

    He's a former Lib Dem :-)

    I think parliament definitely needs more people who have been in the armed forces.
    This story is more amusing

    http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/11703636.Villagers__shocked__by_allegations_of_woman_offering_sex_sessions_at_Bed___Breakfast/?ref=ar
    #
    "However this is the sort of publicity which Cullingworth could do without,"

    Bradford Council was unable to produce a comment on whether operating such a business from a residential property breached planning regulations.

    Classic local news.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Pulpstar said:

    I've got it wrong about ukip not standing no one in Bradford west,even mr Eagles would be proud of this candidate of ukip,my votes back on ;-)

    UKIP have announced their candidates for the general election for Bradford East and Bradford West

    http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/11717760.Election_candidates_announced/?ref=twtrec

    Oh I don't know.

    He's a former Lib Dem :-)

    I think parliament definitely needs more people who have been in the armed forces.
    This story is more amusing

    http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/11703636.Villagers__shocked__by_allegations_of_woman_offering_sex_sessions_at_Bed___Breakfast/?ref=ar
    #
    "However this is the sort of publicity which Cullingworth could do without,"

    Bradford Council was unable to produce a comment on whether operating such a business from a residential property breached planning regulations.

    Classic local news.
    A thrusting and penetrating piece of investigative reporting......
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078


    Various apologists up thread must be a bit deaf and or blind. Certainly the abuse picked up by the mics on the BBC were blatant and disgusting.
    On the subject of the cheerleaders - do they get abuse at American Football games? It would be interesting to know. Do Rugby League fans or Rugby Union fans abuse female physios? In my experience - not, but I'm a bit out of date.
    There seems to be one word missing when it comes to these incidents - 'respect'. The abusers clearly have none, nor any self control. In terms of all kinds of abuse the absence of respect and of self control seems quite important to me.

    I'm also out of date - you leave the country and then your team goes and gets promoted to the top division. It was all stockport county and wrexham in my day!

    it's an interesting question. self-control is certainly lesser inside a football crowd. maybe that's why young lads like to go, to a certain degree. Even speaking personally, I've found myself using words in front of my father at a stoke match that I would never dream of using in front of him in any other context.

    As I remember the stoke city slickers weren't abused. just met with puzzlement or indifference. Like the appearance of a burger van at the ballet
    Part of the enjoyment of being part of a football crowd is being able to step outside of the polite conventions of daily life. This is particularly true of those who have to tow the line in their daily occupation.

    I do not shout abuse, but I understand the cathartic release of energy of those that do. Sanitise football crowds and we might as well all watch rugby.

    I submit my favourite football chant to be "We are Millwall,We are Millwall,No-one likes us,We don't care" a wonderful statement of working class defiance.Camus should have played in goal for them.Durkheim on the left wing.

    Good night.

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    The Lib Dem candidate in the Selhurst by-election got 65 votes, which is the fewest votes for any Lib Dem (or Liberal, or SDP) candidate in any election in Croydon, er, ever. I think.

    The same candidate got 322 votes for the SDP in another by-election in the same ward in 1987.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2015
    Roger said:

    Maggie Thatcher making Harvey Procter Chief Whip?

    Chief Whip ?! *guffaw*
    proc·tor
    noun
    an officer (usually one of two) at certain universities, appointed annually and having mainly disciplinary functions.
    And he was convicted of spanking rent boys in 1986!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Bocking (Essex) result:
    CON - 34.3% (+2.1)
    LAB - 31.2% (+1.3)
    UKIP - 27.4% (-5.3)
    GRN - 5.3% (+2.2)
    IND - 1.9% (+1.9)

    Tory gain from UKIP in Braintree area.
This discussion has been closed.