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edited March 2015 in General

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The next twenty-four hours is going to be fascinating, as well as this YouGov poll, at 5pm on Wednesday, Lord Ashcroft publishes his latest batch of constituency polling from both England and Scotland.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    First?
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 8s8 seconds ago
    High Court: between June 2002 and mid-2006, Mirror Group journalists made nearly 10,000 phone hacking calls to Orange’s voicemail platform.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Beware journalists hyping polls. We've seen it before!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    RobD said:

    Beware journalists hyping polls. We've seen it before!

    I know, but this close to an election, it makes life interesting.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    The embarrassing over analysis of movements in opinion polls continues
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    "Interesting" is fairly sedate on the journalistic continuum. This is the Sun, after all. Since it isn't "explosive", "sensational" or "amazing", it probably means that the Scottish sub-samples have the Conservatives overtaking Labour.
  • Paul_Mid_Beds
    Paul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    TGOHF said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Corking is a phrase used where, for example, a few cyclists in a road race block the side roads at traffic light junction, allowing the bulk of the riders to ride safely through it, red or green without slowing down or stopping.

    Is TN-D a keen cyclist?

    corking (TM) is a PB phrase to describe a poll where the swing between the red and blue parties changes by more than 5 points or the minor parties change by more than 3 points.
    I'm wondering if in this case the cycling analogy is correct, meaning that small groups of UKIP Liberal and Green "cyclists" are choking of Labour from left and right letting the tories through

    ie Green, Libdem and UKIP up a point or two each , Labour down foru or five five, tories static or dropping a bit from yesterday but with much extended lead due to labour being corked by the smaller parties.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    It would be more of a story if a journalist tweeted that a poll they are about to publish is very boring.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    dr_spyn said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 8s8 seconds ago
    High Court: between June 2002 and mid-2006, Mirror Group journalists made nearly 10,000 phone hacking calls to Orange’s voicemail platform.

    I assume there will be demands by politicians on the BBC to close down the paper.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    isam said:

    The embarrassing over analysis of movements in opinion polls continues

    Welcome to PB!
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Lib Dems up one, Greens down one. Tom Newton Dunn up 500 twitter followers.
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    dr_spyn said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 8s8 seconds ago
    High Court: between June 2002 and mid-2006, Mirror Group journalists made nearly 10,000 phone hacking calls to Orange’s voicemail platform.

    If there is any justice the Mirror Group will go bust. A scum paper written by scum.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    antifrank said:

    "Interesting" is fairly sedate on the journalistic continuum. This is the Sun, after all. Since it isn't "explosive", "sensational" or "amazing", it probably means that the Scottish sub-samples have the Conservatives overtaking Labour.

    IIRC, the last "interesting" Yougov poll placed Labour on 30% and the Greens on 10%.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    glw said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 8s8 seconds ago
    High Court: between June 2002 and mid-2006, Mirror Group journalists made nearly 10,000 phone hacking calls to Orange’s voicemail platform.

    If there is any justice the Mirror Group will go bust. A scum paper written by scum.
    Be interesting so see what happens to their share price tomorrow morning.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    glw said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 8s8 seconds ago
    High Court: between June 2002 and mid-2006, Mirror Group journalists made nearly 10,000 phone hacking calls to Orange’s voicemail platform.

    If there is any justice the Mirror Group will go bust. A scum paper written by scum.
    Are the journalist and their editors facing trials as per NOTW.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    At least the NOTW was a great read - I bought it every Sunday for years - The Mirror is an embarrassing comic that rivals the Daily Star for journalism and has an epic bias re Labour - it's a chip on each shoulder.

    blockquote class="Quote" rel="glw">
    dr_spyn said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 8s8 seconds ago
    High Court: between June 2002 and mid-2006, Mirror Group journalists made nearly 10,000 phone hacking calls to Orange’s voicemail platform.

    If there is any justice the Mirror Group will go bust. A scum paper written by scum.

  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    Any signs of Ed telling the world that there must be a full scale inquiry into the behaviour of the Mirror and all those who held positions of some standing during this time?
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited March 2015
    Hanretty update today gives Con a seat lead of 12 (287/275).

    On the individual seat forecast Con lead is 20 (292/272).

    The above is based on a forecast Con vote lead of 2.2%.

    So Hanretty sort of in line with Kellner - a small Con vote lead translates into a small Con seat lead.

    http://electionforecast.co.uk/
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited March 2015
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    The embarrassing over analysis of movements in opinion polls continues

    Welcome to PB!
    I obviously love the site as the number of posts I have made makes clear, but it the constant poll watching is really boring.. It is little more than an exercise in spinning, and childish arguing, at the level of schoolchildren taunting each other about football results

    What we need are some thought provoking threads about things not directly concerned with miniscule poll movements that may or may not mean anything.. Dare I say it, interesting threads on political philosophy is something that the site is very low on
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Are the journalist and their editors facing trials as per NOTW.

    The news report on PM implied that will be the case.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    glw said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Are the journalist and their editors facing trials as per NOTW.

    The news report on PM implied that will be the case.
    Squeaky bum time for some well known people...
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Then pen one and offer it for publication. Many of us have done so.
    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    The embarrassing over analysis of movements in opinion polls continues

    Welcome to PB!
    I obviously love the site as the number of posts I have made makes clear, but it the constant poll watching is really boring.. It is little more than an exercise in spinning, and childish arguing, at the level of schoolchildren taunting each other about football results

    What we need are some thought provoking threads about things not directly concerned with miniscule poll movements that may or may not mean anything.. Dare I say it, interesting threads on political philosophy is something that the site is very low on
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    The fearless Hacked Off mob seem to be content to r/t other press articles on The Mirror. No sign of the Tricoteuse and trumbril.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited March 2015
    Plato said:

    Then pen one and offer it for publication. Many of us have done so.

    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    The embarrassing over analysis of movements in opinion polls continues

    Welcome to PB!
    I obviously love the site as the number of posts I have made makes clear, but it the constant poll watching is really boring.. It is little more than an exercise in spinning, and childish arguing, at the level of schoolchildren taunting each other about football results

    What we need are some thought provoking threads about things not directly concerned with miniscule poll movements that may or may not mean anything.. Dare I say it, interesting threads on political philosophy is something that the site is very low on
    Have penned and offered plenty, all bar one ignored

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Any sign of a Union leader tearing up a copy of the Daily Mirror in front of the cameras?
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    You could post it anyway to provoke a discussion. Assuming it's not an essay but 500ish words - we've posts that are longer.
    isam said:

    Plato said:

    Then pen one and offer it for publication. Many of us have done so.

    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    The embarrassing over analysis of movements in opinion polls continues

    Welcome to PB!
    I obviously love the site as the number of posts I have made makes clear, but it the constant poll watching is really boring.. It is little more than an exercise in spinning, and childish arguing, at the level of schoolchildren taunting each other about football results

    What we need are some thought provoking threads about things not directly concerned with miniscule poll movements that may or may not mean anything.. Dare I say it, interesting threads on political philosophy is something that the site is very low on
    Have penned and offered plenty, all bar one ignored
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    glw said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Are the journalist and their editors facing trials as per NOTW.

    The news report on PM implied that will be the case.
    Squeaky bum time for some well known people...
    Some of the claims being made in court are gob smacking.

    "In opening statements, he estimated that more than 2,000 calls were made to try to access voicemail messages in the case of Mr Yentob alone.

    The court heard that one journalist hacked the phones of celebrities about 100 times a day between 2003 and 2004."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31712894
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    SquareRoot said:

    Any sign of a Union leader tearing up a copy of the Daily Mirror in front of the cameras?

    I'm still waiting for the mob to organise an advertising boycott.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    That's stalking by another name. Crikey. What a boring task 99% of the time.
    glw said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    glw said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Are the journalist and their editors facing trials as per NOTW.

    The news report on PM implied that will be the case.
    Squeaky bum time for some well known people...
    Some of the claims being made in court are gob smacking.

    "In opening statements, he estimated that more than 2,000 calls were made to try to access voicemail messages in the case of Mr Yentob alone.

    The court heard that one journalist hacked the phones of celebrities about 100 times a day between 2003 and 2004."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31712894
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    "It is a reasonable inference that phone hacking was rife at all three of MGN's national titles at or around the same time, that is by mid-1999 at the latest."

    http://www.itv.com/news/2015-03-03/phone-hacking-rife-at-mirror-group-newspapers/

    How many Labour politicians have taken the Mirror's gold in the last 16 years?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    To get a feel, these are some things already known...

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2012/07/124410-620x420.jpg

    http://order-order.com/2010/09/10/take-a-look-in-the-mirror/
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Piers' autobiog is a bit awkward here. I've a copy of it.
    dr_spyn said:

    "It is a reasonable inference that phone hacking was rife at all three of MGN's national titles at or around the same time, that is by mid-1999 at the latest."

    http://www.itv.com/news/2015-03-03/phone-hacking-rife-at-mirror-group-newspapers/

    How many Labour politicians have taken the Mirror's gold in the last 16 years?

  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Quite
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    To get a feel, these are some things already known...

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2012/07/124410-620x420.jpg

    http://order-order.com/2010/09/10/take-a-look-in-the-mirror/

  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    glw said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Are the journalist and their editors facing trials as per NOTW.

    The news report on PM implied that will be the case.
    They may be fortunate in that such a vast budget has been spent on NewsCorp. What is the betting that an incoming Ed Miliband Govt. finds prosecuting MGN is "not an appropriate use of scarce resources...."
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    edited March 2015
    "Leveson has the evidence required to initiate criminal actions and civil actions by thousands of victims of crimes committed by newspaper journalists. Guido challenged Leveson to his face to publish the evidence, thus allowing the victims of industrial scale illegal invasions of privacy to get justice. Leveson claimed it was difficult nine years on. Guido understands that there have been two applications to Leveson to release the Operation Motorman files. The applications, heard in private, were refused.

    So in Britain we have a situation where the judge charged with investigating the crimes carried out by the media is covering up their crimes."

    http://order-order.com/2012/04/10/britains-biggest-establishment-cover-up-conspiracy-thousands-of-crimes-committed-by-over-300-journalists-protected-from-exposure-by-a-judge-and-newspaper-editors/
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Plato said:

    Quite

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    To get a feel, these are some things already known...

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2012/07/124410-620x420.jpg

    http://order-order.com/2010/09/10/take-a-look-in-the-mirror/

    Looks like both the Mirror and Mail should be shut down by those graphs.
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    To get a feel, these are some things already known...

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2012/07/124410-620x420.jpg

    http://order-order.com/2010/09/10/take-a-look-in-the-mirror/

    Exactly, Operation Motorman, which was about blagging mainly, made it clear that there would almost certainly be worse offenders than the NotW.

    You can draw your own conclusion about why the outrage was directed in one particular direction.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Plato said:

    You could post it anyway to provoke a discussion. Assuming it's not an essay but 500ish words - we've posts that are longer.

    isam said:

    Plato said:

    Then pen one and offer it for publication. Many of us have done so.

    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    The embarrassing over analysis of movements in opinion polls continues

    Welcome to PB!
    I obviously love the site as the number of posts I have made makes clear, but it the constant poll watching is really boring.. It is little more than an exercise in spinning, and childish arguing, at the level of schoolchildren taunting each other about football results

    What we need are some thought provoking threads about things not directly concerned with miniscule poll movements that may or may not mean anything.. Dare I say it, interesting threads on political philosophy is something that the site is very low on
    Have penned and offered plenty, all bar one ignored
    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Plato said:

    At least the NOTW was a great read - I bought it every Sunday for years - The Mirror is an embarrassing comic that rivals the Daily Star for journalism and has an epic bias re Labour - it's a chip on each shoulder.

    Perhaps a chip-wrapper on each shoulder?

  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    "Guardian journalists have possession of the files covering the Mail and Mirror groups."

    http://order-order.com/2012/04/10/britains-biggest-establishment-cover-up-conspiracy-thousands-of-crimes-committed-by-over-300-journalists-protected-from-exposure-by-a-judge-and-newspaper-editors/
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    edited March 2015
    glw said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    To get a feel, these are some things already known...

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2012/07/124410-620x420.jpg

    http://order-order.com/2010/09/10/take-a-look-in-the-mirror/

    Exactly, Operation Motorman, which was about blagging mainly, made it clear that there would almost certainly be worse offenders than the NotW.

    You can draw your own conclusion about why the outrage was directed in one particular direction.
    The only paper that has really gone at this, is the Indy. They have run countless stories about how phone hacking is only the tip of the iceberg, and how the press, companies and the powerful have been up to plenty more than seeing which z-list celeb has been banging which over non-entity this month,
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    Plato said:

    That's stalking by another name. Crikey. What a boring task 99% of the time.

    I have little time for celebs, but many journalists have behaved appallingly and criminally.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.

    There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.

    Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I freely admit that as a teenager = I subscribed to The Independent. Because I wanted to read a neutral account of politics.

    And it turned into Greenpeace PR Dead Seagull - it's a joke. All up itself by not covering Royal stories in the past despite her being Head of State.

    I squirm at my idealism all those years ago - I honestly thought for a year or so that their editorial panel had integrity - then they morphed straight back into their own pond.

    Urgh. Just like the BBC = group think replacing honesty and full of self righteous angst.
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    glw said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    To get a feel, these are some things already known...

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2012/07/124410-620x420.jpg

    http://order-order.com/2010/09/10/take-a-look-in-the-mirror/

    Exactly, Operation Motorman, which was about blagging mainly, made it clear that there would almost certainly be worse offenders than the NotW.

    You can draw your own conclusion about why the outrage was directed in one particular direction.
    The only paper that has really gone at this, is the Indy. They have run countless stories about how phone hacking is only the tip of the iceberg, and how the press, companies and the powerful have been up to plenty more than seeing which z-list celeb has been banging which over non-entity this month,
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.

    There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.

    Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
    What would happen if the budget is defeated?
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Very interesting interview with Jihadi at 9.00pm on radio 4 entitled 'The spy who came in from Al Qaeda' repeated from this morning. Highly recommended.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Plato said:

    I freely admit that as a teenager = I subscribed to The Independent. Because I wanted to read a neutral account of politics.

    And it turned into Greenpeace PR Dead Seagull - it's a joke. All up itself by not covering Royal stories in the past despite her being Head of State.

    I squirm at my idealism all those years ago - I honestly thought for a year or so that their editorial panel had integrity - then they morphed straight back into their own pond.

    Urgh. Just like the BBC = group think replacing honesty and full of self righteous angst.

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    glw said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    To get a feel, these are some things already known...

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2012/07/124410-620x420.jpg

    http://order-order.com/2010/09/10/take-a-look-in-the-mirror/

    Exactly, Operation Motorman, which was about blagging mainly, made it clear that there would almost certainly be worse offenders than the NotW.

    You can draw your own conclusion about why the outrage was directed in one particular direction.
    The only paper that has really gone at this, is the Indy. They have run countless stories about how phone hacking is only the tip of the iceberg, and how the press, companies and the powerful have been up to plenty more than seeing which z-list celeb has been banging which over non-entity this month,
    I don't read any paper in particular, but the editor of The Independent comes over extremely well when I have seen him on tv recently
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Roger said:

    Very interesting interview with Jihadi at 9.00pm on radio 4 entitled 'The spy who came in from Al Qaeda' repeated from this morning. Highly recommended.

    Yes - it's a fascinating interview. Well worth making a special effort to catch.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    isam said:

    Plato said:

    I freely admit that as a teenager = I subscribed to The Independent. Because I wanted to read a neutral account of politics.

    And it turned into Greenpeace PR Dead Seagull - it's a joke. All up itself by not covering Royal stories in the past despite her being Head of State.

    I squirm at my idealism all those years ago - I honestly thought for a year or so that their editorial panel had integrity - then they morphed straight back into their own pond.

    Urgh. Just like the BBC = group think replacing honesty and full of self righteous angst.

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    glw said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    To get a feel, these are some things already known...

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2012/07/124410-620x420.jpg

    http://order-order.com/2010/09/10/take-a-look-in-the-mirror/

    Exactly, Operation Motorman, which was about blagging mainly, made it clear that there would almost certainly be worse offenders than the NotW.

    You can draw your own conclusion about why the outrage was directed in one particular direction.
    The only paper that has really gone at this, is the Indy. They have run countless stories about how phone hacking is only the tip of the iceberg, and how the press, companies and the powerful have been up to plenty more than seeing which z-list celeb has been banging which over non-entity this month,
    I don't read any paper in particular, but the editor of The Independent comes over extremely well when I have seen him on tv recently
    They seem to be coming out of the whole hacking episode with whiter than white Daz whitening whites too.
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The only paper that has really gone at this, is the Indy. They have run countless stories about how phone hacking is only the tip of the iceberg, and how the press, companies and the powerful have been up to plenty more than seeing which z-list celeb has been banging which over non-entity this month,

    Operation Motorman was an investigation into the actions of just two private investigators, and found hundreds of customers amongst journalists from almost all of the national newspapers. I have no doubt that the issue is vastly bigger than that.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Plato said:

    I freely admit that as a teenager = I subscribed to The Independent. Because I wanted to read a neutral account of politics.

    And it turned into Greenpeace PR Dead Seagull - it's a joke. All up itself by not covering Royal stories in the past despite her being Head of State.

    I squirm at my idealism all those years ago - I honestly thought for a year or so that their editorial panel had integrity - then they morphed straight back into their own pond.

    Urgh. Just like the BBC = group think replacing honesty and full of self righteous angst.

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    glw said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    To get a feel, these are some things already known...

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2012/07/124410-620x420.jpg

    http://order-order.com/2010/09/10/take-a-look-in-the-mirror/

    Exactly, Operation Motorman, which was about blagging mainly, made it clear that there would almost certainly be worse offenders than the NotW.

    You can draw your own conclusion about why the outrage was directed in one particular direction.
    The only paper that has really gone at this, is the Indy. They have run countless stories about how phone hacking is only the tip of the iceberg, and how the press, companies and the powerful have been up to plenty more than seeing which z-list celeb has been banging which over non-entity this month,
    I don't read any paper in particular, but the editor of The Independent comes over extremely well when I have seen him on tv recently
    They seem to be coming out of the whole hacking episode with whiter than white Daz whitening whites too.
    They probably couldn't afford the fees of the specialist services of some of these PIs :-)
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.

    There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.

    Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
    What would happen if the budget is defeated?
    It wouldn't become law.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.

    There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.

    Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
    What would happen if the budget is defeated?
    It wouldn't become law.
    Thanks! Hah. I meant in terms of confidence in HM government. ;)
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Way back when The Indy was launched I think it was Andreas Whittam-Smith and Adam Rafael who were the big names.

    I'm talking about the initial launch when I was still at school - so back in the mid 80s. I read the DTele and Times [when it wasn't on strike] back as a kid.

    I wasn't your typical child! My favourite TV show was Horizon when I was about 10yrs old.
    isam said:

    Plato said:

    I freely admit that as a teenager = I subscribed to The Independent. Because I wanted to read a neutral account of politics.

    And it turned into Greenpeace PR Dead Seagull - it's a joke. All up itself by not covering Royal stories in the past despite her being Head of State.

    I squirm at my idealism all those years ago - I honestly thought for a year or so that their editorial panel had integrity - then they morphed straight back into their own pond.

    Urgh. Just like the BBC = group think replacing honesty and full of self righteous angst.

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    glw said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    To get a feel, these are some things already known...

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2012/07/124410-620x420.jpg

    http://order-order.com/2010/09/10/take-a-look-in-the-mirror/

    Exactly, Operation Motorman, which was about blagging mainly, made it clear that there would almost certainly be worse offenders than the NotW.

    You can draw your own conclusion about why the outrage was directed in one particular direction.
    The only paper that has really gone at this, is the Indy. They have run countless stories about how phone hacking is only the tip of the iceberg, and how the press, companies and the powerful have been up to plenty more than seeing which z-list celeb has been banging which over non-entity this month,
    I don't read any paper in particular, but the editor of The Independent comes over extremely well when I have seen him on tv recently
  • Bond_James_Bond
    Bond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    I used to read Private Eye back then (not any more, it's a leftist establishment rag; the BBC of satire) and to this day I think of him as Andreas Whittam Strobes.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.

    There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.

    Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
    What would happen if the budget is defeated?
    It wouldn't become law.
    Thanks! Hah. I meant in terms of confidence in HM government. ;)
    It's so near dissolution that I guess it wouldn't make any difference - but it's all hypothetical anyway.

    Bottom line is LDs have to agree to the Budget - Danny Alexander walks out of 11 Downing Street with Osborne - Osborne isn't going to suddenly say something the LDs haven't agreed.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2015
    Have I missed what this is/was?


    Dan Hodges retweeted
    Guido Fawkes‏@GuidoFawkes·2h2 hours ago
    Giant story coming up.

    EDIT - hang on, tell me its not whether Ed stood on a box or not??
    Jeez
  • Barnesian
    Barnesian Posts: 9,221
    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    I think you are right. He will remember the impact of his last IHT proposal. New council tax bands will blunt the opposition and help detoxify the brand. The uplifts in thresholds and allowances need only be small and very affordable to give a warm feeling.

    But I hope you are wrong and that he doesn't do these things.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Have I missed what this is/was?


    Dan Hodges retweeted
    Guido Fawkes‏@GuidoFawkes·2h2 hours ago
    Giant story coming up.

    EDIT - hang on, tell me its not whether Ed stood on a box or not??
    Jeez

    "Miraculously massive Miliband" appears to be a slow day at order-order.com indeed !
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.

    There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.

    Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
    I think you're wrong.

    The Lib Dems will agree to an IHT cut if they get something in return. In this case, that'd be higher local property taxes on higher value homes. It'd be sold as; "if you're in a high-value home, you can expect to make a bit more of a contribution for the local services you use whilst you're living, but not to be punished by the taxman when you want to pass on what's yours to your children when you die".

    This has strong emotional resonance. The average London house-price (and family home) is now way above the IHT threshold. It also provides a solid (and fairer) answer to Labour's mansion tax proposal.

    I think there are plenty of Lib Dems who'd want to take ownership of it as well. Many sitting Lib Dem MPs represent affluent middle-class areas.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,864
    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.

    There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.

    Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
    What would happen if the budget is defeated?
    It wouldn't become law.
    There would be a big issue: income tax has to be renewed each year (it is applied annually). This is in contrast to VAT.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.

    There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.

    Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
    What would happen if the budget is defeated?
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.

    There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.

    Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
    What would happen if the budget is defeated?
    If Clegg/Alexander agree, it won't be. There are ~20 Lib Dem MPs in government. Unless there's resignations, they will have to vote with the government. They could abstain (e.g. Vince Cable) but then they take themselves out of the equation.

    Even if all the Lib Dem backbenches rebel, there's at least 322 votes for the government there and it will pass.
  • Easterross
    Easterross Posts: 1,915
    rather funny the idea of Ed Bland standing on a box to be photographed with a tall Labour MP
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Sarkosy springs to mind - didn't George get into a minor spat about the same?
    Easterross said:

    rather funny the idea of Ed Bland standing on a box to be photographed with a tall Labour MP

  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Just For Fun

    YouGov Prediction

    Con Lead 2%
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Have I missed what this is/was?


    Dan Hodges retweeted
    Guido Fawkes‏@GuidoFawkes·2h2 hours ago
    Giant story coming up.

    EDIT - hang on, tell me its not whether Ed stood on a box or not??
    Jeez

    Mike is away. It is bound to be something huge.
  • Barnesian
    Barnesian Posts: 9,221
    Casino_Royale said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.

    There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.

    Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
    What would happen if the budget is defeated?
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.

    There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.

    Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
    What would happen if the budget is defeated?
    If Clegg/Alexander agree, it won't be. There are ~20 Lib Dem MPs in government. Unless there's resignations, they will have to vote with the government. They could abstain (e.g. Vince Cable) but then they take themselves out of the equation.

    Even if all the Lib Dem backbenches rebel, there's at least 322 votes for the government there and it will pass.
    C_R I think you've written Osborne's speech for him.

    Now where is the Shadsy list of bingo words and phrases?
  • Easterross
    Easterross Posts: 1,915
    Just a thought, if there is crossover in tonight's YouGov between the Yellow peril and the Kippers, OGH will have to go and lie down in a darkened room for at least a fortnight.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited March 2015
    Casino_Royale said:

    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.

    There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.

    Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
    I think you're wrong.

    The Lib Dems will agree to an IHT cut if they get something in return. In this case, that'd be higher local property taxes on higher value homes. It'd be sold as; "if you're in a high-value home, you can expect to make a bit more of a contribution for the local services you use whilst you're living, but not to be punished by the taxman when you want to pass on what's yours to your children when you die".

    This has strong emotional resonance. The average London house-price (and family home) is now way above the IHT threshold. It also provides a solid (and fairer) answer to Labour's mansion tax proposal.

    I think there are plenty of Lib Dems who'd want to take ownership of it as well. Many sitting Lib Dem MPs represent affluent middle-class areas.
    Well we'll see.

    There's a fundamental problem with your proposal that the LDs won't like:

    IHT starts at £325k. If IHT is cut it benefits anyone just above the £325k figure.

    In contrast any new council tax bands would only come in at £1m minimum.

    So the overall effect is that anyone in the £325k to £1m range gets a major win.

    They won't raise council tax as low as £325k - if they did it would be political suicide - an increased annual cost for modest homes - whereas most people aren't expecting to die soon - so benefit of IHT cut is a distant thing.

    I'm sure Con will announce an IHT cut - but it will be Con manifesto, not Budget.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Bedford tells another story
    Easterross said:

    Just a thought, if there is crossover in tonight's YouGov between the Yellow peril and the Kippers, OGH will have to go and lie down in a darkened room for at least a fortnight.

  • philiph
    philiph Posts: 4,705
    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.

    There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.

    Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
    I think you're wrong.

    The Lib Dems will agree to an IHT cut if they get something in return. In this case, that'd be higher local property taxes on higher value homes. It'd be sold as; "if you're in a high-value home, you can expect to make a bit more of a contribution for the local services you use whilst you're living, but not to be punished by the taxman when you want to pass on what's yours to your children when you die".

    This has strong emotional resonance. The average London house-price (and family home) is now way above the IHT threshold. It also provides a solid (and fairer) answer to Labour's mansion tax proposal.

    I think there are plenty of Lib Dems who'd want to take ownership of it as well. Many sitting Lib Dem MPs represent affluent middle-class areas.
    Well we'll see.

    There's a fundamental problem with your proposal that the LDs won't like:

    IHT starts at £325k. If IHT is cut it benefits anyone just above the £325k figure.

    In contrast any new council tax bands would only come in at £1m minimum.

    So the overall effect is that anyone in the £325k to £1m range gets a major win.

    They won't raise council tax as low as £325k - if they did it would be political suicide - an increased annual cost for modest homes - whereas most people aren't expecting to die soon - so benefit of IHT cut is a distant thing.

    I'm sure Con will announce an IHT cut - but it will be Con manifesto, not Budget.
    Yes but Council Tax is on 1980s (?) property values, and any new band would also be at values from the same time, so £325k = 1.5 million (? guess) today
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    *** Budget prediction ***

    This is very much a longshot, and I have no inside knowledge (tm), but I feel that it's possible that the Conservatives may announce some hefty rail developments in the southwest.

    This could either be:
    *) Funding (or funds for progressing) reopening Tavistock to Meldon as part of a local line, with the possibility of diversionary services from the Dawlish seawall at a cost of about £900 million;
    *) A new Dawlish avoiding tunnel (wahey!) under Haldon Hill at £1.5-2.5 billion.
    *) Other speed improvements on the South Devon banks.

    My reasoning?
    1) There are lots of seats up for grabs in the southwest;
    2) It partially offsets one argument against HS2 ("See, other people are getting investment!", ignoring the massive amount of money being pumped into electrification)
    3) Cameron has made several speeches about the need for improvements.
    4) Network Rail is investigating alternatives, especially wrt the CBA /BCR of the alternatives (1).

    Personally I favour a new tunnel, but it'd be an interesting development considering Labour's woeful history of rail investment.

    (1): http://www.networkrail.co.uk/publications/weather-and-climate-change-resilience/west-of-exeter-route-resilience-study/
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited March 2015
    Movement for two 'different' parties? How could it be anything other? How could two parties be the same?
    Does he mean movement in different directions?
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited March 2015
    philiph said:

    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.

    There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.

    Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
    I think you're wrong.

    The Lib Dems will agree to an IHT cut if they get something in return. In this case, that'd be higher local property taxes on higher value homes. It'd be sold as; "if you're in a high-value home, you can expect to make a bit more of a contribution for the local services you use whilst you're living, but not to be punished by the taxman when you want to pass on what's yours to your children when you die".

    This has strong emotional resonance. The average London house-price (and family home) is now way above the IHT threshold. It also provides a solid (and fairer) answer to Labour's mansion tax proposal.

    I think there are plenty of Lib Dems who'd want to take ownership of it as well. Many sitting Lib Dem MPs represent affluent middle-class areas.
    Well we'll see.

    There's a fundamental problem with your proposal that the LDs won't like:

    IHT starts at £325k. If IHT is cut it benefits anyone just above the £325k figure.

    In contrast any new council tax bands would only come in at £1m minimum.

    So the overall effect is that anyone in the £325k to £1m range gets a major win.

    They won't raise council tax as low as £325k - if they did it would be political suicide - an increased annual cost for modest homes - whereas most people aren't expecting to die soon - so benefit of IHT cut is a distant thing.

    I'm sure Con will announce an IHT cut - but it will be Con manifesto, not Budget.
    Yes but Council Tax is on 1980s (?) property values, and any new band would also be at values from the same time, so £325k = 1.5 million (? guess) today
    Sure - I'm obviously talking about today's values.

    My point is that the LDs are not going to agree to a large tax cut for people with homes with a value today in the range £325k to £1m.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited March 2015
    Casino

    "This has strong emotional resonance. The average London house-price (and family home) is now way above the IHT threshold. It also provides a solid (and fairer) answer to Labour's mansion tax proposal.".

    Do Tories go on living at home with their parents till they're well into their 50's and 60's. If not why describe it as 'the family home'? It's just an asset like money or yachts or anything else. I can't for the life of me see why this should be protected from IHT anymore than any other possession

    It's time for Tories to grow up and stop trying to perpetuate their privilege through the generations. If the Libs want to be part of it they'll be in worse trouble than they already are
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm looking forward to this political budget.

    Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.

    I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.

    But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.

    There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.

    Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
    I think you're wrong.

    The Lib Dems will agree to an IHT cut if they get something in return. In this case, that'd be higher local property taxes on higher value homes. It'd be sold as; "if you're in a high-value home, you can expect to make a bit more of a contribution for the local services you use whilst you're living, but not to be punished by the taxman when you want to pass on what's yours to your children when you die".

    This has strong emotional resonance. The average London house-price (and family home) is now way above the IHT threshold. It also provides a solid (and fairer) answer to Labour's mansion tax proposal.

    I think there are plenty of Lib Dems who'd want to take ownership of it as well. Many sitting Lib Dem MPs represent affluent middle-class areas.
    Well we'll see.

    There's a fundamental problem with your proposal that the LDs won't like:

    IHT starts at £325k. If IHT is cut it benefits anyone just above the £325k figure.

    In contrast any new council tax bands would only come in at £1m minimum.

    So the overall effect is that anyone in the £325k to £1m range gets a major win.

    They won't raise council tax as low as £325k - if they did it would be political suicide - an increased annual cost for modest homes - whereas most people aren't expecting to die soon - so benefit of IHT cut is a distant thing.

    I'm sure Con will announce an IHT cut - but it will be Con manifesto, not Budget.
    Anyone in the 325k to £1m range shouldn't pay IHT at all. The services of a private client solicitor will get IHT down to zero.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    MP SE

    'Anyone in the 325k to £1m range shouldn't pay IHT at all. The services of a private client solicitor will get IHT down to zero."

    how apart from setting up a trust or giving it away 7 years before you die?
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited March 2015
    Roger said:

    MP SE

    'Anyone in the 325k to £1m range shouldn't pay IHT at all. The services of a private client solicitor will get IHT down to zero."

    how apart from setting up a trust or giving it away 7 years before you die?

    Transfer IHT allowance to spouse, regular gifts to dependants avoids the 7 year rule, trusts, agricultural relief, etc.

    I would be more concerned about the risk of a child divorcing and their spouse going after a piece of the inheritance which is something which trusts can deal with.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Plato said:

    I freely admit that as a teenager = I subscribed to The Independent. Because I wanted to read a neutral account of politics.

    And it turned into Greenpeace PR Dead Seagull - it's a joke. All up itself by not covering Royal stories in the past despite her being Head of State.

    I squirm at my idealism all those years ago - I honestly thought for a year or so that their editorial panel had integrity - then they morphed straight back into their own pond.

    Urgh. Just like the BBC = group think replacing honesty and full of self righteous angst.

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    glw said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    To get a feel, these are some things already known...

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2012/07/124410-620x420.jpg

    http://order-order.com/2010/09/10/take-a-look-in-the-mirror/

    Exactly, Operation Motorman, which was about blagging mainly, made it clear that there would almost certainly be worse offenders than the NotW.

    You can draw your own conclusion about why the outrage was directed in one particular direction.
    The only paper that has really gone at this, is the Indy. They have run countless stories about how phone hacking is only the tip of the iceberg, and how the press, companies and the powerful have been up to plenty more than seeing which z-list celeb has been banging which over non-entity this month,
    For the first couple of years of its life The independent had brilliant photo-journalism. Often worth buying for the cover photo alone. Sadly one of the first things to go.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    At a guess I would say Green down Labour up.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    I hear that something interesting is about to happen re the HoL/HoC paedophile ring...

    Hope my dad's around to write a thread :-)
  • Barnesian
    Barnesian Posts: 9,221
    MaxPB said:

    At a guess I would say Green down Labour up.

    I agree It's getting serious now. No time for sentiment. I think Tory Kippers are already realising that though Labour Kippers don't seem to care.


  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    edited March 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that something interesting is about to happen re the HoL/HoC paedophile ring...

    Hope my dad's around to write a thread :-)

    Could the ticking time bomb go off.....the question is if it did, how would it affect the GE?

    It has always been a big concern of taking positions for the GE....the story could go absolutely anywhere at any time.
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Roger..you do come out with some absolute dross sometimes when you go on about Tory privilege..remind us again about what your school cost..Millfield.. about 30k pa..in those days
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited March 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that something interesting is about to happen re the HoL/HoC paedophile ring...

    Hope my dad's around to write a thread :-)

    News tonight? I am meant to be working.................
    Barnesian said:

    MaxPB said:

    At a guess I would say Green down Labour up.

    I agree It's getting serious now. No time for sentiment. I think Tory Kippers are already realising that though Labour Kippers don't seem to care.


    On the way home I was thinking how despite the BBC and C4 UKIP programmes their share of the vote has held up. Suprisingly.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    MP SE

    "Transfer IHT allowance to spouse, regular gifts to dependants avoids the 7 year rule, trusts, agricultural relief, etc."

    They're all automatic anyway. No need to involve a lawyer
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    MP_SE said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that something interesting is about to happen re the HoL/HoC paedophile ring...

    Hope my dad's around to write a thread :-)

    News tonight? I am meant to be working.................
    I don't know.

    I am as on tenterhooks as you are.
  • Paul_Mid_Beds
    Paul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited March 2015
    JosiasJessop said:

    *** Budget prediction ***

    This is very much a longshot, and I have no inside knowledge (tm), but I feel that it's possible that the Conservatives may announce some hefty rail developments in the southwest.

    This could either be:
    *) Funding (or funds for progressing) reopening Tavistock to Meldon as part of a local line, with the possibility of diversionary services from the Dawlish seawall at a cost of about £900 million;
    *) A new Dawlish avoiding tunnel (wahey!) under Haldon Hill at £1.5-2.5 billion.
    *) Other speed improvements on the South Devon banks.

    Personally I favour a new tunnel, but it'd be an interesting development considering Labour's woeful history of rail investment.

    (1): http://www.networkrail.co.uk/publications/weather-and-climate-change-resilience/west-of-exeter-route-resilience-study/

    Again no inside knowledge think the Dawlish idea is not feasible. As well as the huge £2-3 billion cost, it is not easy engineering (geology horrible), full of Nimbies and dosent solve the problem west of Newton abbot of a slow winding line built with sharp curves on the sides of hills.

    The £900 million was priced as an gold plated intercity grade railway with about £400 million contingency.

    £200-£500 million is a more realistic price for a single track 75mph diversionary route, nearer £200 million if Meldon Viaduct can be refurbished not rebuilt (which explains the Transport secretary going by train to personally inspect it in December 2014)

    Plus six of the twenty missing miles on the Dartmoor route (Bere Alston to Tavistock) are going to happen as a developer funded reopening anyway. With a Parkway Stn at the A30/A386 junction at Sourton and through Waterloo-Plymouth services it would be give swathes of North Devon and Cornwall a boost.

    All a Dawlish diversion achieves is a few minutes off the existing journey, with buses still needed if there is a problem west of Newton Abbot and the probable closure of Teignmouth and Dawlish stations next the first time a major problem blocked the sea wall stretch of the line after the diversion opened.

    With the Okehampton route all the weekend and overnight possessions to spend £300 making the south devon route resilient wont leave the south west isolated with buses to Plymouth. I would say the Dawlish wall is the least of their worries. The high sandy cliffs above several miles of the track and the curves round the sides of hills on the South Devon Banks west of Newton Abbot would be what kept me awake at night if I was the engineer responsible for that route.

    Plus - Labour (as expressed by their two local MPs in Plymouth and Exeter) favour a Dawlish Diversion and are anti reopening the Okehampton Route, whereas the many many more Conservative & Libdem local MPs (other than certain MPs in South Devon) are in favour of reopening the Okehampton route not the unaffordable Dawlish Diversion.
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Roger said:

    MP SE

    "Transfer IHT allowance to spouse, regular gifts to dependants avoids the 7 year rule, trusts, agricultural relief, etc."

    They're all automatic anyway. No need to involve a lawyer

    Setting up a trust would. Not sure if you could DIY it but wouldn't like to mess it up which results in a huge tax bill. Presumably if the solicitor messed it up professional indemnity insurance would cover the damage.
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    MP_SE said:

    Roger said:

    MP SE

    'Anyone in the 325k to £1m range shouldn't pay IHT at all. The services of a private client solicitor will get IHT down to zero."

    how apart from setting up a trust or giving it away 7 years before you die?

    Transfer IHT allowance to spouse, regular gifts to dependants avoids the 7 year rule, trusts, agricultural relief, etc.

    I would be more concerned about the risk of a child divorcing and their spouse going after a piece of the inheritance which is something which trusts can deal with.
    If you have a max of £1m inc your house and expect, ex hypothesi, to live at least 7 years, you aren't in much of a position to give it all away.
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that something interesting is about to happen re the HoL/HoC paedophile ring...

    Hope my dad's around to write a thread :-)

    Good source or are we talking twitter trending?
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited March 2015
    My general cynical view has been that Rotherham (and all the other towns) is bad for Labour whereas the HoL/HoC paedo cover-up seems likely to be worse for Tory grandees and there's a mutually assured destruction pact along the lines of ' don't poke my hornet's nest and I won't poke yours'. What would totally alter that is if the HoL/HoC thing is in fact mostly a lefty paedo revelation. Harriet Harman caught on video raping a gerbil - that sort of thing. It would open Labour up to full assault on Rotherham etc.
  • Paul_Mid_Beds
    Paul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited March 2015
    .
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Jessop

    *** Budget prediction ***

    This is very much a longshot, and I have no inside knowledge (tm), but I feel that it's possible that the Conservatives may announce some hefty rail developments in the southwest.

    This could either be:
    *) Funding (or funds for progressing) reopening Tavistock to Meldon as part of a local line, with the possibility of diversionary services from the Dawlish seawall at a cost of about £900 million;
    *) A new Dawlish avoiding tunnel (wahey!) under Haldon Hill at £1.5-2.5 billion.
    *) Other speed improvements on the South Devon banks.

    My reasoning?
    1) There are lots of seats up for grabs in the southwest;
    2) It partially offsets one argument against HS2 ("See, other people are getting investment!", ignoring the massive amount of money being pumped into electrification)
    3) Cameron has made several speeches about the need for improvements.
    4) Network Rail is investigating alternatives, especially wrt the CBA /BCR of the alternatives (1).

    Personally I favour a new tunnel, but it'd be an interesting development considering Labour's woeful history of rail investment.

    (1): http://www.networkrail.co.uk/publications/weather-and-climate-change-resilience/west-of-exeter-route-resilience-study/

    Do you think it would be wise for Osborne to bore the electorate to death on his last budget?

  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Ishmael_X said:

    MP_SE said:

    Roger said:

    MP SE

    'Anyone in the 325k to £1m range shouldn't pay IHT at all. The services of a private client solicitor will get IHT down to zero."

    how apart from setting up a trust or giving it away 7 years before you die?

    Transfer IHT allowance to spouse, regular gifts to dependants avoids the 7 year rule, trusts, agricultural relief, etc.

    I would be more concerned about the risk of a child divorcing and their spouse going after a piece of the inheritance which is something which trusts can deal with.
    If you have a max of £1m inc your house and expect, ex hypothesi, to live at least 7 years, you aren't in much of a position to give it all away.
    That is true. It has been many years since I have even given IHT any thought but I suppose it depends a lot on individual circumstances. For example, an overly generous final salary pension would mean you are in a better position to give some money away without it impacting on your lifestyle.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Tom @theSun probably hinting at a massive 10 point lead for Labour :naughty:
  • nigel4england
    nigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Seems like Millwall fans had their annual jolly up at Rotherham last Saturday, I work with someone who is a season ticket holder at Rotherham and he said it was mayhem with 1,300 Millwall turning up.

    Apparently it got really nasty when the Millwall contingent kept singing 'You knew, and you did f*** all' at the South Yorkshire plod, who obviously don't like having the truth thrown at them.
  • nigel4england
    nigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Tom @theSun probably hinting at a massive 10 point lead for Labour :naughty:

    Probably, then it will be followed by a 10 point lead for the Tories in the Ashcroft poll.
  • JamesM
    JamesM Posts: 221
    I just received my first ever Annual Tax Summary where it outlines how much tax was spent on everything from welfare, through to defence and debt interest. If these are landing on the mats of the voting public I wonder if this will have any impact too?
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