If the other parties had any sense they’d not stand and allow one anti- corruption candidate to go up against the lying corrupt grifter .
Martin Bell's still alive...
Fun fact: Bell's 1997 election was the first time an independent had won a parliamentary seat since 1951. Or so the Guardian says - seems unlikely to me.
From 1951 to 1979 the two parties had a nice comfortable stitch up of almost all the seats in the UK, including in Northern Ireland (although several parties stood as technically separate they mostly were at least loosely linked to mainland parties).
So discounting the speaker, very few non-Big Two party candidates were returned. The Liberals were down to 6 on several occasions - 1950, 1951, 1955, 1970.
I think Bell was the first genuinely Independent candidate to win outside Northern Ireland since 1951. There were a couple of instances of deselected MPs standing again and winning (1970 and Feb 1974 I think) and there was also a Highland Tory who was nominally an Indy in the 50s (party labels were still quite loose in that part of the world then) but I think was re-elected later as a Conservative. That is from memory so I may have missed one.
The Kidderminster Hospital Independent?
Dr Richard Taylor was first elected in 2001
And in any case, it was a local political party so he wasn't an independent
Someone with money who can call themselves unbribeable, and with some connection to if not Clacton specifically then at least that part of the world, willing to give up what might be three years of their life to promise to work for the people of the town, but with sufficient clout behind them to persuade the main parties to stand aside.
Any ideas? Retired sportsman from the area perhaps?
Penelope Keith apparently spent some of her early years in Clacton. Sadly now lost to us as an option.
If the donations story had not cut through previously Nige has at least made sure it has now
That's the funny thing. By calling a by-election on whether or not it's OK for Nigel to be given 5 million quid by a rather rum cove, Nigel has surely ensured that everyone will know that Nigel has been given 5 million quid by a rather rum cove. And that any other stories in the works will be fast-tracked.
Farage better hope that the Insight Team at the Times aren't sitting on some more hand grenades.
I wonder if they are, and he knows they are. Resigning-not-resigning gives him the option to say, in a fortnight, "the intrusion into my family life has now become intolerable and I have chosen not to stand in the by-election". He saves face and can piss off to America to earn $$$ on the talk-show circuit.
Farage has proven one thing today and one thing only - everything that he does is about one person. Nigel Farage. The people of Clacton do not need a media circus descending on their town over a busy tourist season because their MP has made a series of bad decisions. He should have declared that five million pounds. He knows it. We all know it. Now he is going to weaponise a by-election to distract from that. This is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. A quarter of a million pounds. Eye-watering sums of money. Think about what that money could do for the people of Clacton. Will Farage fund it out of his own pocket? Because he bloody well should. This is making a mockery of our entire democratic process. He made bad decision after bad decision, and concealed money in a way that has spectacularly backfired. A by-election will not deflect from that fact, and nor should it. I will be making an announcement later today about Restore Britain’s plans for the Clacton by-election."
Losing more than £1,000 will be bad enough but what do they mean by spending?
If there are more than 50 horseraces on a busy Saturday, does that mean no-one can have £20 on every race? What about every football match?
The Gambling Commission really are flipping useless. Not only are they anti-gambling by inclination, they also know damn all about it and have succeeded only in driving millions of pounds onto the unregulated "black market".
Yet the Parliamentary standards will still be reviewing things
So if Nigel wins, he will still be subject to whatever the punishment is and so he could win and still be subject to a recall by election
Surely fighting a byelection now removes their principal sanction? They could hardly ask him to fight it again. I think that this is a tactic to fight the frankly inevitable byelection on his terms. And it might work.
No - the sanction, if he's returned as an MP, remains likely to be a period of suspension. If that's for at least ten sitting days then he can be subject to recall under the Recall of MPs Act 2015.
So whether or not there is a further by-election isn't the decision of Parliamentary authorities (except insofar as a nine day suspension wouldn't allow for it). The issue is whether at least 10% of voters sign the resulting recall petition.
Someone with money who can call themselves unbribeable, and with some connection to if not Clacton specifically then at least that part of the world, willing to give up what might be three years of their life to promise to work for the people of the town, but with sufficient clout behind them to persuade the main parties to stand aside.
Any ideas? Retired sportsman from the area perhaps?
Penelope Keith apparently spent some of her early years in Clacton. Sadly now lost to us as an option.
It won't happen, but, honestly, if you are looking for an experienced and erudite foil to take on Farage, you could do a hell of a lot worse than Count Binface.
Losing more than £1,000 will be bad enough but what do they mean by spending?
If there are more than 50 horseraces on a busy Saturday, does that mean no-one can have £20 on every race? What about every football match?
The Gambling Commission really are flipping useless. Not only are they anti-gambling by inclination, they also know damn all about it and have succeeded only in driving millions of pounds onto the unregulated "black market".
As said down thread, online poker players are screwed. Playing $100 cash tables isn't really big stakes and most will play 4 tables, and tables break all the time. So you sit 10 tables over the day (which is super low volume), technically you have "gambled" $1000* and you have triggered an investigation. There is also HU / 3 handed hyper tournaments, people who play those will play 100s per day as they only last a few minutes. Even tournament entries, its not big timers putting up $1000 in total entries over the whole day.
* lets take generous interpretation that it is actual betting in hands, again $1000 of betting into pots is super low volume / low stakes.
Farage has proven one thing today and one thing only - everything that he does is about one person. Nigel Farage. The people of Clacton do not need a media circus descending on their town over a busy tourist season because their MP has made a series of bad decisions. He should have declared that five million pounds. He knows it. We all know it. Now he is going to weaponise a by-election to distract from that. This is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. A quarter of a million pounds. Eye-watering sums of money. Think about what that money could do for the people of Clacton. Will Farage fund it out of his own pocket? Because he bloody well should. This is making a mockery of our entire democratic process. He made bad decision after bad decision, and concealed money in a way that has spectacularly backfired. A by-election will not deflect from that fact, and nor should it. I will be making an announcement later today about Restore Britain’s plans for the Clacton by-election."
Losing more than £1,000 will be bad enough but what do they mean by spending?
If there are more than 50 horseraces on a busy Saturday, does that mean no-one can have £20 on every race? What about every football match?
The Gambling Commission really are flipping useless. Not only are they anti-gambling by inclination, they also know damn all about it and have succeeded only in driving millions of pounds onto the unregulated "black market".
This also justifies the data-sharing between bookmakers, so that if you win too many bets at Ladbrokes, Paddy Power will know about it too.
1. Every party other than Reform, Conservatives and Restore are irrelevant, (ie Labour, Lib Dems and Greens would get 2% at best in a by-election situation). There will be no "unity candidate". The hopes of the semi-sensible rest entirely with the Conservatives, God help us. 2. Restore should do very well. They can campaign on being both ideologically purer and less corrupt than Farage while targeting the same set of voters. 3. To win the Conservatives need Restore to do well enough to take votes away from Farage, but not so well that they actually win. 4. If neither of those things happen, Farage will win. This what I expect.
Someone with money who can call themselves unbribeable, and with some connection to if not Clacton specifically then at least that part of the world, willing to give up what might be three years of their life to promise to work for the people of the town, but with sufficient clout behind them to persuade the main parties to stand aside.
Any ideas? Retired sportsman from the area perhaps?
Penelope Keith apparently spent some of her early years in Clacton. Sadly now lost to us as an option.
A reminder that Farage only got 46.2 % of the vote before these revelations. Tory, Labour, Green and LD combined comfortably beat that.
That was when Reform polled 14.7% across GB. They're currently polling ~10pp above that nationally, so on UNS you'd expect Farage to be on at least 55% as a starting point here.
I'd hope the voters would reject him for the £5m, but I think it's a slim chance. He could lose a lot of voters and still have enough to see him home.
Indeed. Although I remember the same argument made about Makerfield.
The test then is whether the Tories can find a candidate who will unite the anti-Farage tactical vote behind them, and attract back those voters lost to Reform since the GE.
It's not impossible, but it's a big ask.
Cometh the hour, cometh the Rory. Or of course if you wanted a real roll of the dice, Boris.
Farage vs Johnson in a 'corruption' by-election? Really?
Perhaps all parties could stand their most morally compromised scandal magnet, and we can finally answer the question "who is worst?" by means of a fight.
Did the Times in fact publish a picture of where Farage's daughter lives?
Yes they published pictures of the 5 homes he owns of which his daugther lives in one (and they said so).
I feel sorry for the 2 homes that seem to be rented out. I wouldn't be surprised if they have been bothered.
That’s very poor from the organisation that considers itself to be the Newspaper of Record. Tabloid-level intrusion.
Even if you don’t like Farage, there needs to be some respect for families of politicans who have no wish to be public figures, if we ever want to see decent people stand for office.
Losing more than £1,000 will be bad enough but what do they mean by spending?
If there are more than 50 horseraces on a busy Saturday, does that mean no-one can have £20 on every race? What about every football match?
The Gambling Commission really are flipping useless. Not only are they anti-gambling by inclination, they also know damn all about it and have succeeded only in driving millions of pounds onto the unregulated "black market".
OK things are not quite that bad. The Racing Post says the GC is talking about net deposits. Still not good though.
In the first stage of implementation the commission said the checks would only be carried out by the largest operators when a £5,000 net deposit in a rolling 24-hour period was met.
Everyone needs to tactically vote for the Tories. No other mainstream party stands a chance.
This is our change to kill Farage's career.
I agree the tactical vote here is Conservative. Expect to see Kemi hose this seat with money (pardon the irony) in the by election
Labour haven't ran this seat close since Doug Carswell was elected in 2005, when they lost by 920 votes
The Tories are a long way back but the divide between people who have time for Farage and those who don't is widening, and I doubt his popularity will rise in the interim.
The rumours are that someone close to him is dripping feeding info into the media, so why is he so angry at the press and not reflecting on why someone on his own side is gunning for him? If Reform are to survive he needs to let go of the project at some point
He doesn't give off a look of control for someone who is a prospective PM.
What happens if he wins the by-election, then the standards committee say suspended from the house for period that can result in recall, then a recall comes in and we have yet an other by-election?
If he wins the by-election is there much point doing the recall petition? I wouldn't bother signing one if I were a local resident knowing that one had already just been held.
Yet the Parliamentary standards will still be reviewing things
So if Nigel wins, he will still be subject to whatever the punishment is and so he could win and still be subject to a recall by election
Surely fighting a byelection now removes their principal sanction? They could hardly ask him to fight it again. I think that this is a tactic to fight the frankly inevitable byelection on his terms. And it might work.
No - the sanction, if he's returned as an MP, remains likely to be a period of suspension. If that's for at least ten sitting days then he can be subject to recall under the Recall of MPs Act 2015.
So whether or not there is a further by-election isn't the decision of Parliamentary authorities (except insofar as a nine day suspension wouldn't allow for it). The issue is whether at least 10% of voters sign the resulting recall petition.
The point being that the real sanction would be losing his seat. Not sure he will be at all bothered about a couple of weeks suspension.
What this effectively seems to do is neuter the threat of another by election. It makes it less likely there wil be the 10% wanting a reowat by election and it means he chooses the narrative rather than having one imposed on him. That could be very important in a tight election.
Did the Times in fact publish a picture of where Farage's daughter lives?
Yes they published pictures of the 5 homes he owns of which his daugther lives in one (and they said so).
I feel sorry for the 2 homes that seem to be rented out. I wouldn't be surprised if they have been bothered.
That’s very poor from the organisation that considers itself to be the Newspaper of Record. Tabloid-level intrusion.
Even if you don’t like Farage, there needs to be some respect for families of politicans who have no wish to be public figures, if we ever want to see decent people stand for office.
Sure. But two wrongs etc. The pictures and the by-election are being raised as distractions from a case to answer in breaches of Parliamentary standards. The story they accompanied remains sound even if they should not have been included with it.
Farage better hope that the Insight Team at the Times aren't sitting on some more hand grenades.
Given what they have published, I think there is quite a bit more... Farage is taking a Trumpian approach, but this country seems more aware of what actual corruption looks like, so this looks very much like a Hail Mary pass
Did the Times in fact publish a picture of where Farage's daughter lives?
Yes they published pictures of the 5 homes he owns of which his daugther lives in one (and they said so).
I feel sorry for the 2 homes that seem to be rented out. I wouldn't be surprised if they have been bothered.
That’s very poor from the organisation that considers itself to be the Newspaper of Record. Tabloid-level intrusion.
Even if you don’t like Farage, there needs to be some respect for families of politicans who have no wish to be public figures, if we ever want to see decent people stand for office.
Sure. But two wrongs etc. The pictures and the by-election are being raised as distractions from a case to answer in breaches of Parliamentary standards. The story they accompanied remains sound even if they should not have been included with it.
Oh the story is sound and in the public interest, but let’s not be publishing addresses and pictures of houses where relatives or totally innocent people are living.
Yet the Parliamentary standards will still be reviewing things
So if Nigel wins, he will still be subject to whatever the punishment is and so he could win and still be subject to a recall by election
Surely fighting a byelection now removes their principal sanction? They could hardly ask him to fight it again. I think that this is a tactic to fight the frankly inevitable byelection on his terms. And it might work.
No - the sanction, if he's returned as an MP, remains likely to be a period of suspension. If that's for at least ten sitting days then he can be subject to recall under the Recall of MPs Act 2015.
So whether or not there is a further by-election isn't the decision of Parliamentary authorities (except insofar as a nine day suspension wouldn't allow for it). The issue is whether at least 10% of voters sign the resulting recall petition.
The point being that the real sanction would be losing his seat. Not sure he will be at all bothered about a couple of weeks suspension.
What this effectively seems to do is neuter the threat of another by election. It makes it less likely there wil be the 10% wanting a reowat by election and it means he chooses the narrative rather than having one imposed on him. That could be very important in a tight election.
Yes, if Farage is returned, I expect the suspension and recall petition to happen, but may not get to threshold, as it will need a substantial portion of those who actively voted against him to sign up for a second by-election - at the GE 31% of the total electorate voted against Farage, 15% voted for someone other than Ref/Con.
And it is the total electorate, including those that do not turn out, that a recall petition has to reach threshold against.
Farage has proven one thing today and one thing only - everything that he does is about one person. Nigel Farage. The people of Clacton do not need a media circus descending on their town over a busy tourist season because their MP has made a series of bad decisions. He should have declared that five million pounds. He knows it. We all know it. Now he is going to weaponise a by-election to distract from that. This is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. A quarter of a million pounds. Eye-watering sums of money. Think about what that money could do for the people of Clacton. Will Farage fund it out of his own pocket? Because he bloody well should. This is making a mockery of our entire democratic process. He made bad decision after bad decision, and concealed money in a way that has spectacularly backfired. A by-election will not deflect from that fact, and nor should it. I will be making an announcement later today about Restore Britain’s plans for the Clacton by-election."
Comments
He may win, but if he does what does it say about accountability to parliaments standards even if he thinks his so called safe constituency backs him
This is playing games and hopefully all the opposition to him in Clacton will tactically vote him out
I feel sorry for the 2 homes that seem to be rented out. I wouldn't be surprised if they have been bothered.
It's either confidence or a Hail Mary pass.
Online gamblers betting more than £1,000 to face new checks
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqj1xvy44xno
Losing more than £1,000 will be bad enough but what do they mean by spending?
If there are more than 50 horseraces on a busy Saturday, does that mean no-one can have £20 on every race? What about every football match?
The Gambling Commission really are flipping useless. Not only are they anti-gambling by inclination, they also know damn all about it and have succeeded only in driving millions of pounds onto the unregulated "black market".
So whether or not there is a further by-election isn't the decision of Parliamentary authorities (except insofar as a nine day suspension wouldn't allow for it). The issue is whether at least 10% of voters sign the resulting recall petition.
* lets take generous interpretation that it is actual betting in hands, again $1000 of betting into pots is super low volume / low stakes.
1. Every party other than Reform, Conservatives and Restore are irrelevant, (ie Labour, Lib Dems and Greens would get 2% at best in a by-election situation). There will be no "unity candidate". The hopes of the semi-sensible rest entirely with the Conservatives, God help us.
2. Restore should do very well. They can campaign on being both ideologically purer and less corrupt than Farage while targeting the same set of voters.
3. To win the Conservatives need Restore to do well enough to take votes away from Farage, but not so well that they actually win.
4. If neither of those things happen, Farage will win. This what I expect.
Even if you don’t like Farage, there needs to be some respect for families of politicans who have no wish to be public figures, if we ever want to see decent people stand for office.
Just another stop on rhe fluidly opportunistic Farage roadshow, rather than anything new.
In the first stage of implementation the commission said the checks would only be carried out by the largest operators when a £5,000 net deposit in a rolling 24-hour period was met.
Once fully implemented the checks would be applied to customers aged 25 years or older with net deposits exceeding £1,000 in a rolling 24-hour period, or £3,000 over a rolling 90-day period. For those under 25 those thresholds would be reduced to £750 in a rolling 24 hours or £2,000 in a rolling 90 days.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/industry/racing-industry/controversial-affordability-checks-on-punters-given-green-light-by-gambling-commission-despite-opposition-from-racing-and-bookmakers-aNU4B2Q7rmT5/ (might be £££)
Labour haven't ran this seat close since Doug Carswell was elected in 2005, when they lost by 920 votes
The Tories are a long way back but the divide between people who have time for Farage and those who don't is widening, and I doubt his popularity will rise in the interim.
The rumours are that someone close to him is dripping feeding info into the media, so why is he so angry at the press and not reflecting on why someone on his own side is gunning for him? If Reform are to survive he needs to let go of the project at some point
He doesn't give off a look of control for someone who is a prospective PM.
What this effectively seems to do is neuter the threat of another by election. It makes it less likely there wil be the 10% wanting a reowat by election and it means he chooses the narrative rather than having one imposed on him. That could be very important in a tight election.
NEW THREAD
And it is the total electorate, including those that do not turn out, that a recall petition has to reach threshold against.
The grift that keeps on grifting