If the other parties had any sense they’d not stand and allow one anti- corruption candidate to go up against the lying corrupt grifter .
Martin Bell's still alive...
Fun fact: Bell's 1997 election was the first time an independent had won a parliamentary seat since 1951. Or so the Guardian says - seems unlikely to me.
What happens if he wins the by-election, then the standards committee say suspended from the house for period that can result in recall, then a recall comes in and we have yet an other by-election?
Well that took several hand brake turns. But he is pulling a David Davis. Risky as voters don't generally like being asked to vote for self indulgence.
And I imagine Labour, the Tories and the Greens will say "— this" and refuse to stand. The Greens might.
It would be a strange decision for the Tories, they held the seat until 2024. I can't see them backing an anti-Farage independent in the Bell mould. And if Restore run (which you have to think they will) and Labour and the Lib Dems soft-pedal or even don't stand at all, the Tories could win a three-way contest.
Not sure I really get Farage's reasoning. It will only intensify the scrutiny, doesn't stop the investigation and will give Restore a boost and others a chance to try and come through the middle. What are the chances of a second by-election later this year if he wins this one?
We need more people in politics with experience of making money by getting mysterious £5mn gifts from shady crypto billionaires.
I will volunteer to test this out.
I will accept random donations of £4.9m - this should be an OTC market, I think.
Edit: Actually, on second thoughts I’m starting politicanttading.co.uk - a platform to buy and sell politicians and derivatives of politicians. Who wants in on the ground floor?
What happens if he wins the by-election, then the standards committee say suspended from the house for period that can result in recall, then a recall comes in and we have yet an other by-election?
If he wins this, a recall petition causing another by-election would surely cause a whole load of Brenda-from-Bristolism.
Yet the Parliamentary standards will still be reviewing things
So if Nigel wins, he will still be subject to whatever the punishment is and so he could win and still be subject to a recall by election
Surely fighting a byelection now removes their principal sanction? They could hardly ask him to fight it again. I think that this is a tactic to fight the frankly inevitable byelection on his terms. And it might work.
Surely a by-election campaign is just an excuse for journalists (and the public) to ask Farage repeated questions over the £5m that he can't or won't answer. I don't think it's going to help him, even if he wins the by-election.
We need more people in politics with experience of making money by getting mysterious £5mn gifts from shady crypto billionaires.
I will volunteer to test this out.
I will accept random donations of £4.9m - this should be an OTC market, I think.
Edit: Actually, on second thoughts I’m starting politicanttading.co.uk - a platform to buy and sell politicians and derivatives of politicians. Who wants in on the ground floor?
I'll take £4.8m, save yourself £100k cryptobillionaires!
Surely a by-election campaign is just an excuse for journalists (and the public) to ask Farage repeated questions over the £5m that he can't or won't answer. I don't think it's going to help him, even if he wins the by-election.
He is going to have to come up with a consistent and better answer, because he can't just hide in the US during the by-election. I guess he might try and pull the Trump taxes approach, I can't talk about the details as there is an ongoing investigation and I have submitted my legal response to the investigation. But the British media will just shout at him about it for 4 weeks straight...but then he might go down the victim narrative.
If the other parties had any sense they’d not stand and allow one anti- corruption candidate to go up against the lying corrupt grifter .
Martin Bell's still alive...
Fun fact: Bell's 1997 election was the first time an independent had won a parliamentary seat since 1951. Or so the Guardian says - seems unlikely to me.
From 1951 to 1979 the two parties had a nice comfortable stitch up of almost all the seats in the UK, including in Northern Ireland (although several parties stood as technically separate they mostly were at least loosely linked to mainland parties).
So discounting the speaker, very few non-Big Two party candidates were returned. The Liberals were down to 6 on several occasions - 1950, 1951, 1955, 1970.
We need more people in politics with experience of making money by getting mysterious £5mn gifts from shady crypto billionaires.
I will volunteer to test this out.
I will accept random donations of £4.9m - this should be an OTC market, I think.
Edit: Actually, on second thoughts I’m starting politicanttading.co.uk - a platform to buy and sell politicians and derivatives of politicians. Who wants in on the ground floor?
We need more people in politics with experience of making money by getting mysterious £5mn gifts from shady crypto billionaires.
I will volunteer to test this out.
I will accept random donations of £4.9m - this should be an OTC market, I think.
Edit: Actually, on second thoughts I’m starting politicanttading.co.uk - a platform to buy and sell politicians and derivatives of politicians. Who wants in on the ground floor?
I'll take £4.8m, save yourself £100k cryptobillionaires!
I’ll invest money in you, to stop you dropping the price….
Well that took several hand brake turns. But he is pulling a David Davis. Risky as voters don't generally like being asked to vote for self indulgence.
And I imagine Labour, the Tories and the Greens will say "— this" and refuse to stand. The Greens might.
The Greens came second in the David Davis by-election.
Surely a by-election campaign is just an excuse for journalists (and the public) to ask Farage repeated questions over the £5m that he can't or won't answer. I don't think it's going to help him, even if he wins the by-election.
But he will say to the media, we don't have to take your opinion, it is the opinion of the people of Clacton that counts!
I suggest this: The reason for standing down now is so that he can be re-elected as the other parties avoid putting up candidates. He then is unlikely to face yet another by election as and when the PCS finds against him because everyone will be bored with the subject.
My immediate feeling is that the other main parties will not stand in this by election. Nor would there be a White Knight of substance.
The atrocious Farage has played a not very good hand well.
The Press will be happy that they have something other than Burnham to talk about over the summer then. Unless parliament refuses to move the writ until they come back in September. Which would be funny.
If he’s appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds this week, but the by-election isn’t until after conference season in October, that’s presumably nearly four months with no salary or expenses paid?
The Press will be happy that they have something other than Burnham to talk about over the summer then. Unless parliament refuses to move the writ until they come back in September. Which would be funny.
If he’s appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds this week, but the by-election isn’t until after conference season in October, that’s presumably nearly four months with no salary or expenses paid?
We need more people in politics with experience of making money by getting mysterious £5mn gifts from shady crypto billionaires.
I will volunteer to test this out.
I will accept random donations of £4.9m - this should be an OTC market, I think.
Edit: Actually, on second thoughts I’m starting politicanttading.co.uk - a platform to buy and sell politicians and derivatives of politicians. Who wants in on the ground floor?
is there a market in Political Futures? Or swaps? Perhaps a CDO. Bundle a thousand questionable gifts together, tranche them by reputational risk, and sell the AAA slice to pension funds. What could possibly go wrong?
Clacton and most of the rest of that coast is a holiday destination. A by-election in July, August or even September will be a nuisance to a lot of traders, and their employees, for whom it is their busy season and furthermore the streets will be full of people who have nothing to do with Clacton. Might provide a bit of a carnival atmosphere I suppose.
We need more people in politics with experience of making money by getting mysterious £5mn gifts from shady crypto billionaires.
I will volunteer to test this out.
I will accept random donations of £4.9m - this should be an OTC market, I think.
Edit: Actually, on second thoughts I’m starting politicanttading.co.uk - a platform to buy and sell politicians and derivatives of politicians. Who wants in on the ground floor?
I'll take £4.8m, save yourself £100k cryptobillionaires!
I’ll invest money in you, to stop you dropping the price….
Interesting... by the way on the politiciatrading idea do you remember Epigram by Humbolt Wolfe:
You cannot hope to bribe or twist (thank God!) the British journalist. But, seeing what the man will do unbribed, there's no occasion to.
I suggest this: The reason for standing down now is so that he can be re-elected as the other parties avoid putting up candidates. He then is unlikely to face yet another by election as and when the PCS finds against him because everyone will be bored with the subject.
My immediate feeling is that the other main parties will not stand in this by election. Nor would there be a White Knight of substance.
The atrocious Farage has played a not very good hand well.
Why would they not stand? Surely there is a reasonable chance he would be beaten?
Farage has proven one thing today and one thing only - everything that he does is about one person. Nigel Farage. The people of Clacton do not need a media circus descending on their town over a busy tourist season because their MP has made a series of bad decisions. He should have declared that five million pounds. He knows it. We all know it. Now he is going to weaponise a by-election to distract from that. This is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. A quarter of a million pounds. Eye-watering sums of money. Think about what that money could do for the people of Clacton. Will Farage fund it out of his own pocket? Because he bloody well should. This is making a mockery of our entire democratic process. He made bad decision after bad decision, and concealed money in a way that has spectacularly backfired. A by-election will not deflect from that fact, and nor should it. I will be making an announcement later today about Restore Britain’s plans for the Clacton by-election."
I suggest this: The reason for standing down now is so that he can be re-elected as the other parties avoid putting up candidates. He then is unlikely to face yet another by election as and when the PCS finds against him because everyone will be bored with the subject.
My immediate feeling is that the other main parties will not stand in this by election. Nor would there be a White Knight of substance.
The atrocious Farage has played a not very good hand well.
Why do you think that the other parties would avoid putting up candidates? I'd have thought this is a excellent opportunity for one of them to benefit from anti Reform tactical voting
The Press will be happy that they have something other than Burnham to talk about over the summer then. Unless parliament refuses to move the writ until they come back in September. Which would be funny.
If he’s appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds this week, but the by-election isn’t until after conference season in October, that’s presumably nearly four months with no salary or expenses paid?
Doesn't he get two months salary plus twice (MPs write their own rules) the statutory redundancy payment he would have had if he was an employee. It'll be a good earner, well at least for those who don't get £5m gifts.
I thought that statement very odd. Desperate, self-indulgent, paranoid. None of the assurance with which he usually speaks.
But Farage had proven his political acumen time and time again, so maybe this is just another genius step to No 10.
Interesting. It didn't across to me like that at all, but then I sympathise with some, though not all, of Farage's agenda.
Put it this way - the decision to fight a by-election was a shock announcement at the end. The rest of the speech didn’t set it up at all, it felt more like a crash out (as Americans would say).
Gut reaction is its a smart move from Nigel. Lets him claim he's drawn a line under it - gets him out ahead of the drip drip of further investigation into his finances.
He could lose it if Restore eat into his vote and/or Lab stand aside?
A reminder that Farage only got 46.2 % of the vote before these revelations. Tory, Labour, Green and LD combined comfortably beat that.
Are you expecting an alliance between Tories and Labour in Clacton?
If Labour don't at least tacitly support tactical voting for the Tories, it kills their "Farage is the devil" narrative.
What will Andy do? I think he will tacitly support tactical voting for the Tories. Part of his rapprochement with Kemi in anticipation of a Lab/Con coalition after the next GE.
Farage has proven one thing today and one thing only - everything that he does is about one person. Nigel Farage. The people of Clacton do not need a media circus descending on their town over a busy tourist season because their MP has made a series of bad decisions. He should have declared that five million pounds. He knows it. We all know it. Now he is going to weaponise a by-election to distract from that. This is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. A quarter of a million pounds. Eye-watering sums of money. Think about what that money could do for the people of Clacton. Will Farage fund it out of his own pocket? Because he bloody well should. This is making a mockery of our entire democratic process. He made bad decision after bad decision, and concealed money in a way that has spectacularly backfired. A by-election will not deflect from that fact, and nor should it. I will be making an announcement later today about Restore Britain’s plans for the Clacton by-election."
Whatever you think of Rupert Lowe and seemingly increasingly march ever more extreme right, I think Farage will regret trying to stitch him up as he is becoming a big pain for him.
I suggest this: The reason for standing down now is so that he can be re-elected as the other parties avoid putting up candidates. He then is unlikely to face yet another by election as and when the PCS finds against him because everyone will be bored with the subject.
My immediate feeling is that the other main parties will not stand in this by election. Nor would there be a White Knight of substance.
The atrocious Farage has played a not very good hand well.
Why would they not stand? Surely there is a reasonable chance he would be beaten?
For a couple of reasons. Firstly because I can't see a way that any other party wins without levels of tactical voting never before seen. Secondly, and as a result of that, other parties can say that they don't want to be complicit in an attempt (albeit perhaps not a legally watertight one) to circumvent the Standards Committee.
A reminder that Farage only got 46.2 % of the vote before these revelations. Tory, Labour, Green and LD combined comfortably beat that.
That was when Reform polled 14.7% across GB. They're currently polling ~10pp above that nationally, so on UNS you'd expect Farage to be on at least 55% as a starting point here.
I'd hope the voters would reject him for the £5m, but I think it's a slim chance. He could lose a lot of voters and still have enough to see him home.
Well that took several hand brake turns. But he is pulling a David Davis. Risky as voters don't generally like being asked to vote for self indulgence.
And I imagine Labour, the Tories and the Greens will say "— this" and refuse to stand. The Greens might.
It would be a strange decision for the Tories, they held the seat until 2024. I can't see them backing an anti-Farage independent in the Bell mould. And if Restore run (which you have to think they will) and Labour and the Lib Dems soft-pedal or even don't stand at all, the Tories could win a three-way contest.
The Tories will surely either retread the previous MP, or find a suitable local businessman type who’s willing to take on Farage. They’ll have resources already in the seat.
How much can “Restore Britain” split the Farage vote as well. There’s going to be something of a protest against Farage standing down in the first place, à la David Davis a few years ago.
If the other parties had any sense they’d not stand and allow one anti- corruption candidate to go up against the lying corrupt grifter .
Martin Bell's still alive...
Fun fact: Bell's 1997 election was the first time an independent had won a parliamentary seat since 1951. Or so the Guardian says - seems unlikely to me.
From 1951 to 1979 the two parties had a nice comfortable stitch up of almost all the seats in the UK, including in Northern Ireland (although several parties stood as technically separate they mostly were at least loosely linked to mainland parties).
So discounting the speaker, very few non-Big Two party candidates were returned. The Liberals were down to 6 on several occasions - 1950, 1951, 1955, 1970.
I think Bell was the first genuinely Independent candidate to win outside Northern Ireland since 1951. There were a couple of instances of deselected MPs standing again and winning (1970 and Feb 1974 I think) and there was also a Highland Tory who was nominally an Indy in the 50s (party labels were still quite loose in that part of the world then) but I think was re-elected later as a Conservative. That is from memory so I may have missed one.
A reminder that Farage only got 46.2 % of the vote before these revelations. Tory, Labour, Green and LD combined comfortably beat that.
The only way he could possibly be beaten if there is a Martin Bell type candidate, who is respected, and can turn the by-election into a referendum on corruption rather than as one on the "Establishment". Not sure who that person could be. Perhaps someone will emerge but they would have to accept becoming a fate figure for all the radicalised social media bubble inhabitants. This will be a test of our political culture and whether he are heading down the MAGA plughole.
The Press will be happy that they have something other than Burnham to talk about over the summer then. Unless parliament refuses to move the writ until they come back in September. Which would be funny.
If he’s appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds this week, but the by-election isn’t until after conference season in October, that’s presumably nearly four months with no salary or expenses paid?
Doesn't he get two months salary plus twice (MPs write their own rules) the statutory redundancy payment he would have had if he was an employee. It'll be a good earner, well at least for those who don't get £5m gifts.
The Press will be happy that they have something other than Burnham to talk about over the summer then. Unless parliament refuses to move the writ until they come back in September. Which would be funny.
If he’s appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds this week, but the by-election isn’t until after conference season in October, that’s presumably nearly four months with no salary or expenses paid?
Manor of Northstead, I think. Josh Simons, who made way for Andy Burnham, got the Chiltern Hundreds, and they alternate so Farage will replace the SNP's Stephen Flynn as Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.
A reminder that Farage only got 46.2 % of the vote before these revelations. Tory, Labour, Green and LD combined comfortably beat that.
That was when Reform polled 14.7% across GB. They're currently polling ~10pp above that nationally, so on UNS you'd expect Farage to be on at least 55% as a starting point here.
I'd hope the voters would reject him for the £5m, but I think it's a slim chance. He could lose a lot of voters and still have enough to see him home.
Indeed. Although I remember the same argument made about Makerfield.
Yet the Parliamentary standards will still be reviewing things
So if Nigel wins, he will still be subject to whatever the punishment is and so he could win and still be subject to a recall by election
Surely fighting a byelection now removes their principal sanction? They could hardly ask him to fight it again. I think that this is a tactic to fight the frankly inevitable byelection on his terms. And it might work.
I agree. Clacton is extremely awkward for everyone else, which Farage is perfectly happy about.
However I think Reform will lose out elsewhere as the dodginess of the manoeuvre is too obvious to ignore. Possibly the end of Reform as the party of power in waiting.
Surely a by-election campaign is just an excuse for journalists (and the public) to ask Farage repeated questions over the £5m that he can't or won't answer. I don't think it's going to help him, even if he wins the by-election.
He is going to have to come up with a consistent and better answer, because he can't just hide in the US during the by-election. I guess he might try and pull the Trump taxes approach, I can't talk about the details as there is an ongoing investigation and I have submitted my legal response to the investigation. But the British media will just shout at him about it for 4 weeks straight...but then he might go down the victim narrative.
The key thing will be whether ordinary Clacton voters challenge him about it when he's on the campaign trail, and how he reacts to that challenge.
If he goes down the Brown, "bigoted woman," route over it then things could unravel for him, but I wouldn't be counting on it.
The Press will be happy that they have something other than Burnham to talk about over the summer then. Unless parliament refuses to move the writ until they come back in September. Which would be funny.
If he’s appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds this week, but the by-election isn’t until after conference season in October, that’s presumably nearly four months with no salary or expenses paid?
Doesn't he get two months salary plus twice (MPs write their own rules) the statutory redundancy payment he would have had if he was an employee. It'll be a good earner, well at least for those who don't get £5m gifts.
People don't get a statutory redundancy payment for resigning.
I’d still put Farage as favourite to win given half of Clacton voters were stupid enough to vote for him in 2024 and don’t mind having a lying grifter as an MP.
I thought Makerfield was "an expensive burden on the taxpayer for one man's vanity."
It was. This strikes me as equally as bad as it looks like an attempt to play the system to undermine or negate the consequences of being found guilty by the Parliamentary enquiry. It looks like a clever and cynical move. I wonder if it might be too clever.
If the other parties had any sense they’d not stand and allow one anti- corruption candidate to go up against the lying corrupt grifter .
Martin Bell's still alive...
Fun fact: Bell's 1997 election was the first time an independent had won a parliamentary seat since 1951. Or so the Guardian says - seems unlikely to me.
Eddie Milne won Blyth as an independent in 1974, S.O.Davies won Merthyr Tydfil as an indy in 1970. Those are just off the top of my head. Maybe the Guardian wasn't including them because unofficially their label was "Independent Labour" not just "Independent".
If the other parties had any sense they’d not stand and allow one anti- corruption candidate to go up against the lying corrupt grifter .
Martin Bell's still alive...
Fun fact: Bell's 1997 election was the first time an independent had won a parliamentary seat since 1951. Or so the Guardian says - seems unlikely to me.
From 1951 to 1979 the two parties had a nice comfortable stitch up of almost all the seats in the UK, including in Northern Ireland (although several parties stood as technically separate they mostly were at least loosely linked to mainland parties).
So discounting the speaker, very few non-Big Two party candidates were returned. The Liberals were down to 6 on several occasions - 1950, 1951, 1955, 1970.
I think Bell was the first genuinely Independent candidate to win outside Northern Ireland since 1951. There were a couple of instances of deselected MPs standing again and winning (1970 and Feb 1974 I think) and there was also a Highland Tory who was nominally an Indy in the 50s (party labels were still quite loose in that part of the world then) but I think was re-elected later as a Conservative. That is from memory so I may have missed one.
I suggest this: The reason for standing down now is so that he can be re-elected as the other parties avoid putting up candidates. He then is unlikely to face yet another by election as and when the PCS finds against him because everyone will be bored with the subject.
My immediate feeling is that the other main parties will not stand in this by election. Nor would there be a White Knight of substance.
The atrocious Farage has played a not very good hand well.
Why would they not stand? Surely there is a reasonable chance he would be beaten?
Because there is a reasonable chance that he would win.
The way to maximise the chance of Farage losing is for only one main party to stand, which would have to be the Tories (who got 31000 votes in 2019.) I can't see that being a deal anyone would take. If +1 other main party stands Farage is more likely to win.
So treating it as an opportunist gimmick (which of course it is) and opting out may on balance be best. But there are no good options for Lab and Con.
White Knight? Can't think of one. But a discussion of that will be in the gossip mix.
Gamblers who spend more than £1,000 online in a 24-hour window will have to undergo a financial risk assessment, the industry regulator has announced. The Gambling Commission said this would also apply to anyone spending over £3,000 in a rolling 90-day period. Under-25s will have lower thresholds.
I suggest this: The reason for standing down now is so that he can be re-elected as the other parties avoid putting up candidates. He then is unlikely to face yet another by election as and when the PCS finds against him because everyone will be bored with the subject.
My immediate feeling is that the other main parties will not stand in this by election. Nor would there be a White Knight of substance.
The atrocious Farage has played a not very good hand well.
I expect the conservatives to stand and it will be a test of tactical voting
Farage hopes to win and then try and frame the narrative as the people have spoken and how dare the investigation find him guilty after that .
Indeed. Farage is on the side of the people against the Establishment.
Nothing screams "man of the people" more than getting £5 million "gifts" from random foreign based crypto billionaires, along with unspecified other gifts from a criminal half your age who wrote a book entitled "How to launder money" and who calls you "Daddy"
Farage has proven one thing today and one thing only - everything that he does is about one person. Nigel Farage. The people of Clacton do not need a media circus descending on their town over a busy tourist season because their MP has made a series of bad decisions. He should have declared that five million pounds. He knows it. We all know it. Now he is going to weaponise a by-election to distract from that. This is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. A quarter of a million pounds. Eye-watering sums of money. Think about what that money could do for the people of Clacton. Will Farage fund it out of his own pocket? Because he bloody well should. This is making a mockery of our entire democratic process. He made bad decision after bad decision, and concealed money in a way that has spectacularly backfired. A by-election will not deflect from that fact, and nor should it. I will be making an announcement later today about Restore Britain’s plans for the Clacton by-election."
A reminder that Farage only got 46.2 % of the vote before these revelations. Tory, Labour, Green and LD combined comfortably beat that.
That was when Reform polled 14.7% across GB. They're currently polling ~10pp above that nationally, so on UNS you'd expect Farage to be on at least 55% as a starting point here.
I'd hope the voters would reject him for the £5m, but I think it's a slim chance. He could lose a lot of voters and still have enough to see him home.
Indeed. Although I remember the same argument made about Makerfield.
The test then is whether the Tories can find a candidate who will unite the anti-Farage tactical vote behind them, and attract back those voters lost to Reform since the GE.
If the other parties had any sense they’d not stand and allow one anti- corruption candidate to go up against the lying corrupt grifter .
Martin Bell's still alive...
Fun fact: Bell's 1997 election was the first time an independent had won a parliamentary seat since 1951. Or so the Guardian says - seems unlikely to me.
From 1951 to 1979 the two parties had a nice comfortable stitch up of almost all the seats in the UK, including in Northern Ireland (although several parties stood as technically separate they mostly were at least loosely linked to mainland parties).
So discounting the speaker, very few non-Big Two party candidates were returned. The Liberals were down to 6 on several occasions - 1950, 1951, 1955, 1970.
I think Bell was the first genuinely Independent candidate to win outside Northern Ireland since 1951. There were a couple of instances of deselected MPs standing again and winning (1970 and Feb 1974 I think) and there was also a Highland Tory who was nominally an Indy in the 50s (party labels were still quite loose in that part of the world then) but I think was re-elected later as a Conservative. That is from memory so I may have missed one.
Someone with money who can call themselves unbribeable, and with some connection to if not Clacton specifically then at least that part of the world, willing to give up what might be three years of their life to promise to work for the people of the town, but with sufficient clout behind them to persuade the main parties to stand aside.
Any ideas? Retired sportsman from the area perhaps?
Farage has proven one thing today and one thing only - everything that he does is about one person. Nigel Farage. The people of Clacton do not need a media circus descending on their town over a busy tourist season because their MP has made a series of bad decisions. He should have declared that five million pounds. He knows it. We all know it. Now he is going to weaponise a by-election to distract from that. This is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. A quarter of a million pounds. Eye-watering sums of money. Think about what that money could do for the people of Clacton. Will Farage fund it out of his own pocket? Because he bloody well should. This is making a mockery of our entire democratic process. He made bad decision after bad decision, and concealed money in a way that has spectacularly backfired. A by-election will not deflect from that fact, and nor should it. I will be making an announcement later today about Restore Britain’s plans for the Clacton by-election."
A reminder that Farage only got 46.2 % of the vote before these revelations. Tory, Labour, Green and LD combined comfortably beat that.
That was when Reform polled 14.7% across GB. They're currently polling ~10pp above that nationally, so on UNS you'd expect Farage to be on at least 55% as a starting point here.
I'd hope the voters would reject him for the £5m, but I think it's a slim chance. He could lose a lot of voters and still have enough to see him home.
Indeed. Although I remember the same argument made about Makerfield.
The test then is whether the Tories can find a candidate who will unite the anti-Farage tactical vote behind them, and attract back those voters lost to Reform since the GE.
It's not impossible, but it's a big ask.
Cometh the hour, cometh the Rory. Or of course if you wanted a real roll of the dice, Boris.
I thought that statement very odd. Desperate, self-indulgent, paranoid. None of the assurance with which he usually speaks.
But Farage had proven his political acumen time and time again, so maybe this is just another genius step to No 10.
Or a way to bail out before the enquiry, leave the pesky 'doing work' stuff behind him and hoover up some of that lovely 'nutter circuit' money waffling on about the blob on podcasts.
I suggest this: The reason for standing down now is so that he can be re-elected as the other parties avoid putting up candidates. He then is unlikely to face yet another by election as and when the PCS finds against him because everyone will be bored with the subject.
My immediate feeling is that the other main parties will not stand in this by election. Nor would there be a White Knight of substance.
The atrocious Farage has played a not very good hand well.
Why would they not stand? Surely there is a reasonable chance he would be beaten?
Because there is a reasonable chance that he would win.
The way to maximise the chance of Farage losing is for only one main party to stand, which would have to be the Tories (who got 31000 votes in 2019.) I can't see that being a deal anyone would take. If +1 other main party stands Farage is more likely to win.
So treating it as an opportunist gimmick (which of course it is) and opting out may on balance be best. But there are no good options for Lab and Con.
White Knight? Can't think of one. But a discussion of that will be in the gossip mix.
Yes, but any other parties agreeing not to stand against Farage will hardly quell talk of the ‘uniparty’.
Someone with money who can call themselves unbribeable, and with some connection to if not Clacton specifically then at least that part of the world, willing to give up what might be three years of their life to promise to work for the people of the town, but with sufficient clout behind them to persuade the main parties to stand aside.
Any ideas? Retired sportsman from the area perhaps?
Penelope Keith apparently spent some of her early years in Clacton. Sadly now lost to us as an option.
A reminder that Farage only got 46.2 % of the vote before these revelations. Tory, Labour, Green and LD combined comfortably beat that.
That was when Reform polled 14.7% across GB. They're currently polling ~10pp above that nationally, so on UNS you'd expect Farage to be on at least 55% as a starting point here.
I'd hope the voters would reject him for the £5m, but I think it's a slim chance. He could lose a lot of voters and still have enough to see him home.
Indeed. Although I remember the same argument made about Makerfield.
The test then is whether the Tories can find a candidate who will unite the anti-Farage tactical vote behind them, and attract back those voters lost to Reform since the GE.
It's not impossible, but it's a big ask.
Cometh the hour, cometh the Rory. Or of course if you wanted a real roll of the dice, Boris.
Ha, Johnson would be box office, and think he might even be tempted......
A reminder that Farage only got 46.2 % of the vote before these revelations. Tory, Labour, Green and LD combined comfortably beat that.
That was when Reform polled 14.7% across GB. They're currently polling ~10pp above that nationally, so on UNS you'd expect Farage to be on at least 55% as a starting point here.
I'd hope the voters would reject him for the £5m, but I think it's a slim chance. He could lose a lot of voters and still have enough to see him home.
Indeed. Although I remember the same argument made about Makerfield.
The test then is whether the Tories can find a candidate who will unite the anti-Farage tactical vote behind them, and attract back those voters lost to Reform since the GE.
It's not impossible, but it's a big ask.
Cometh the hour, cometh the Rory. Or of course if you wanted a real roll of the dice, Boris.
Farage vs Johnson in a 'corruption' by-election? Really?
If the other parties had any sense they’d not stand and allow one anti- corruption candidate to go up against the lying corrupt grifter .
Martin Bell's still alive...
Fun fact: Bell's 1997 election was the first time an independent had won a parliamentary seat since 1951. Or so the Guardian says - seems unlikely to me.
From 1951 to 1979 the two parties had a nice comfortable stitch up of almost all the seats in the UK, including in Northern Ireland (although several parties stood as technically separate they mostly were at least loosely linked to mainland parties).
So discounting the speaker, very few non-Big Two party candidates were returned. The Liberals were down to 6 on several occasions - 1950, 1951, 1955, 1970.
I think Bell was the first genuinely Independent candidate to win outside Northern Ireland since 1951. There were a couple of instances of deselected MPs standing again and winning (1970 and Feb 1974 I think) and there was also a Highland Tory who was nominally an Indy in the 50s (party labels were still quite loose in that part of the world then) but I think was re-elected later as a Conservative. That is from memory so I may have missed one.
A reminder that Farage only got 46.2 % of the vote before these revelations. Tory, Labour, Green and LD combined comfortably beat that.
That was when Reform polled 14.7% across GB. They're currently polling ~10pp above that nationally, so on UNS you'd expect Farage to be on at least 55% as a starting point here.
I'd hope the voters would reject him for the £5m, but I think it's a slim chance. He could lose a lot of voters and still have enough to see him home.
Indeed. Although I remember the same argument made about Makerfield.
The test then is whether the Tories can find a candidate who will unite the anti-Farage tactical vote behind them, and attract back those voters lost to Reform since the GE.
It's not impossible, but it's a big ask.
Cometh the hour, cometh the Rory. Or of course if you wanted a real roll of the dice, Boris.
Farage vs Johnson in a 'corruption' by-election? Really?
Farage has proven one thing today and one thing only - everything that he does is about one person. Nigel Farage. The people of Clacton do not need a media circus descending on their town over a busy tourist season because their MP has made a series of bad decisions. He should have declared that five million pounds. He knows it. We all know it. Now he is going to weaponise a by-election to distract from that. This is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. A quarter of a million pounds. Eye-watering sums of money. Think about what that money could do for the people of Clacton. Will Farage fund it out of his own pocket? Because he bloody well should. This is making a mockery of our entire democratic process. He made bad decision after bad decision, and concealed money in a way that has spectacularly backfired. A by-election will not deflect from that fact, and nor should it. I will be making an announcement later today about Restore Britain’s plans for the Clacton by-election."
Farage has proven one thing today and one thing only - everything that he does is about one person. Nigel Farage. The people of Clacton do not need a media circus descending on their town over a busy tourist season because their MP has made a series of bad decisions. He should have declared that five million pounds. He knows it. We all know it. Now he is going to weaponise a by-election to distract from that. This is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. A quarter of a million pounds. Eye-watering sums of money. Think about what that money could do for the people of Clacton. Will Farage fund it out of his own pocket? Because he bloody well should. This is making a mockery of our entire democratic process. He made bad decision after bad decision, and concealed money in a way that has spectacularly backfired. A by-election will not deflect from that fact, and nor should it. I will be making an announcement later today about Restore Britain’s plans for the Clacton by-election."
If Lowe considers £250k an eye watering amount of money his tear ducts must be working overtime.
For nearly everyone in the country that is an eye-watering sum of money. A “change your life” number.
He knows his audience.
It's a total waste of money but in terms of government spending it is less than a fraction of a rounding error. You can't talk about money out of context. £20k is not a lot of money as an annual salary but would be an eye watering amount of money to spend on a cappuccino. Similarly £250k is an eye watering amount of money to drop into someone's bank account (unless you are Nigel Farage of course) but as an item of government spending it just isn’t. This is the problem of populists, of course. They dumb down political discourse because it's the only way they can hope to be competitive.
A reminder that Farage only got 46.2 % of the vote before these revelations. Tory, Labour, Green and LD combined comfortably beat that.
That was when Reform polled 14.7% across GB. They're currently polling ~10pp above that nationally, so on UNS you'd expect Farage to be on at least 55% as a starting point here.
I'd hope the voters would reject him for the £5m, but I think it's a slim chance. He could lose a lot of voters and still have enough to see him home.
Indeed. Although I remember the same argument made about Makerfield.
The test then is whether the Tories can find a candidate who will unite the anti-Farage tactical vote behind them, and attract back those voters lost to Reform since the GE.
It's not impossible, but it's a big ask.
Cometh the hour, cometh the Rory. Or of course if you wanted a real roll of the dice, Boris.
Farage vs Johnson in a 'corruption' by-election? Really?
Perhaps Mordaunt - fearless sword of the Establishment
Comments
Presumably if they find against him, he can't be subject to a recall petition, having literally just been re-elected?
I will accept random donations of £4.9m - this should be an OTC market, I think.
Edit: Actually, on second thoughts I’m starting politicanttading.co.uk - a platform to buy and sell politicians and derivatives of politicians. Who wants in on the ground floor?
Tory, Labour, Green and LD combined comfortably beat that.
So discounting the speaker, very few non-Big Two party candidates were returned. The Liberals were down to 6 on several occasions - 1950, 1951, 1955, 1970.
Perhaps in exchange for £5m in crypto.
Con+Lab+LD+Grn got 24.219 votes.
And then there is Restore.
All to play for.
I think he will lose.
iirc polling day must be within 21-27 days after that.
My immediate feeling is that the other main parties will not stand in this by election. Nor would there be a White Knight of substance.
The atrocious Farage has played a not very good hand well.
But Farage had proven his political acumen time and time again, so maybe this is just another genius step to No 10.
Or swaps?
Perhaps a CDO. Bundle a thousand questionable gifts together, tranche them by reputational risk, and sell the AAA slice to pension funds. What could possibly go wrong?
Might provide a bit of a carnival atmosphere I suppose.
And possibly invest in.
You cannot hope to bribe or twist
(thank God!) the British journalist.
But, seeing what the man will do
unbribed, there's no occasion to.
I think it applies even more to our politicians.
@RupertLowe10
Farage has proven one thing today and one thing only - everything that he does is about one person. Nigel Farage. The people of Clacton do not need a media circus descending on their town over a busy tourist season because their MP has made a series of bad decisions. He should have declared that five million pounds. He knows it. We all know it. Now he is going to weaponise a by-election to distract from that. This is going to cost the taxpayer a fortune. A quarter of a million pounds. Eye-watering sums of money. Think about what that money could do for the people of Clacton. Will Farage fund it out of his own pocket? Because he bloody well should. This is making a mockery of our entire democratic process. He made bad decision after bad decision, and concealed money in a way that has spectacularly backfired. A by-election will not deflect from that fact, and nor should it. I will be making an announcement later today about Restore Britain’s plans for the Clacton by-election."
https://x.com/RupertLowe10/status/2074489231985012838
He could lose it if Restore eat into his vote and/or Lab stand aside?
I think he will tacitly support tactical voting for the Tories.
Part of his rapprochement with Kemi in anticipation of a Lab/Con coalition after the next GE.
I'd hope the voters would reject him for the £5m, but I think it's a slim chance. He could lose a lot of voters and still have enough to see him home.
How much can “Restore Britain” split the Farage vote as well. There’s going to be something of a protest against Farage standing down in the first place, à la David Davis a few years ago.
ETA:-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stewards_of_the_Chiltern_Hundreds
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stewards_of_the_Manor_of_Northstead
Although I remember the same argument made about Makerfield.
However I think Reform will lose out elsewhere as the dodginess of the manoeuvre is too obvious to ignore. Possibly the end of Reform as the party of power in waiting.
If he goes down the Brown, "bigoted woman," route over it then things could unravel for him, but I wouldn't be counting on it.
The way to maximise the chance of Farage losing is for only one main party to stand, which would have to be the Tories (who got 31000 votes in 2019.) I can't see that being a deal anyone would take. If +1 other main party stands Farage is more likely to win.
So treating it as an opportunist gimmick (which of course it is) and opting out may on balance be best. But there are no good options for Lab and Con.
White Knight? Can't think of one. But a discussion of that will be in the gossip mix.
Farage favourite.
£40 bet at 1.7 followed by £160 at 1.33
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.259826116
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqj1xvy44xno
By spending, they mean placing bets, rather than funding their account. Online Poker players are going to be under constant assessment.
Nothing screams "man of the people" more than getting £5 million "gifts" from random foreign based crypto billionaires, along with unspecified other gifts from a criminal half your age who wrote a book entitled "How to launder money" and who calls you "Daddy"
It's not impossible, but it's a big ask.
Someone with money who can call themselves unbribeable, and with some connection to if not Clacton specifically then at least that part of the world, willing to give up what might be three years of their life to promise to work for the people of the town, but with sufficient clout behind them to persuade the main parties to stand aside.
Any ideas? Retired sportsman from the area perhaps?
He knows his audience.
Or of course if you wanted a real roll of the dice, Boris.
£250k buys a three-bed house or bungalow with a garden in Clacton.