Assets and liabilities – politicalbetting.com
Assets and liabilities – politicalbetting.com
Interesting to see perceptions of whether the party leaders help or hurt their parties has changed over past year. Burnham seen as a clear asset for Labour, Starmer a big drag, Badenoch has moved from hinder to help, while Farage’s help score has dipped to tie Badenoch.
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James Purnell basically confirms himself that he is to be chief of staff.
Whether it is a useful question betting wise, rather than the more traditional leader ratings remains to be seen, I guess.
Jones also confirms Burnham will borrow more. However mostly for infrastructure which is an excellent idea.
I pressed pause on Nigel Farage being asked about the £5m gift yesterday
https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/2069675925281653083
On the contrary, I think "Good, determined, useless, strong, unknown, competent Conservative" fits reasonably well.
I rather like the word clouds.
Sage advice from the sport
‘ The big Oil Companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for Oil. Those prices are dropping like a rock! In other words, customers are being “gouged.” I have instructed the DOJ to immediately start looking into this. Gasoline prices better start going down a lot faster than what I’m seeing! President DJT’
https://x.com/trumptruthonx/status/2069634890820456712?s=61
Nothing to write home about. After all, we rarely get record breaking warmth these days. Just warmest spring on record this year (yet again), the hottest May day on record, and a measly June record. Hell, we've not even broken the all time record set in July 2022. And it'll be cooler by Sunday.
And it's fine anyway because happy old ladies and gentlemen are promenading out in the lovely warmth.
Maybe even take some time to think about what he’s actually going to do, relaxing in the rather smart country house that is Chequers.
Nigel Farage is a greedy, massive racist.
In 10 years will this be as celebrated as Brexit?
In 10 years will this be as celebrated as Brexit?
Not sure what your problem with Burnham is apart from the fact he's a Labour Prime Minister, presumably?
At least @Alanbrooke started sniping at Starmer after he'd been to the Palace and the car had got to Admiralty Arch on the way back to Downing Street.
Any crypto billionaires reading can message me directly. It's a bargain compared to the money wasted on Nigel.
On a completely unrelated note, does anyone know what Reform's policy on crypto is and whether it's changed on recent years?
I’m more concerned about my stomach but, yes, they work wonders. We’re in the shade at the moment but later we won’t be and it’s over 30 degrees today.
Whatever the politics that’s not the sort of character traits I’d want in a PM.
I’ve been neither pro nor against voting reform but his display over this has deffo pushed me into not voting for them next time.
And, splendid as the profit motive is, in housebuilding it seems to lead to a throttling of supply.
Is there something on your mind, Nigel?
Nigel Farage is a greedy, massive RACIST
Warmer overnight than predicted I think - it didn't drop below 20C here and was already a hideously muggy 24C before 07Z.
The June record will definitely go today - and it is quite likely that the new record will only last until tomorrow.
The petulance is much harder to regard as a positive.
A good appointment
I hope the internet stuff about LARPING wealth tax buffoon Gary Stevenson being co-opted to develop wealth taxes is a sick joke
https://x.com/samcoatessky/status/2069671349933756810?s=61
I still can't see it myself, but proof if needed, that I am wrong and you are all correct.
There is plenty of spare capacity in the house building industry. Vistry and Crest Nicholson are laying people off
If,you can’t make a profit or adequate return doing something, why do it. I listened to a Bloomberg money podcast on housing. In some parts of London if a builder had the land for free they wouldn’t make any money. We need to encourage private businesses.
....Here are 6 weeks to hone his policy ideas for government
"But he cannot actually DO anything"
Isn't political opposition just a weird endeavour all round.
But, just like increasing welfare spending for families on UC, I expect it gets Labour backbenchers excited.
The actual racists as opposed to those who don’t like the Boriswave, mass inward migration policies of the main parties who are deemed racist for not being happy clappy about it.
UC and PIP and benefits spending will spike up under Burnham as he’s going to go back on the ILR delay of five years.
More widely, he's always wanted to be an insurgent into the Establishment rather than a member of it. I think that's what accounts for his self-sabotaging behaviour. He doesn't like the scrutiny. He's terrified by the prospect of actually being in charge.
I wouldn't be surprised if someone else was leading Reform into the next election.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2069555503429042606
The Ukranian project to starve the Russians out of the peninsula appears to be going according to plan.
The settled conclusion might suggest that the Tory party is indeed shit.
There’s no vision, he’s just Starmer Mk II, but with the remains of a Northern accent left after Cambridge kicked most of it out of him.
Dr Aseem Malhotra says he believes Shane Warne's death was connected to the COVID vaccine.
Tonight in Karl Weekly, he explains why he reached that conclusion after reviewing the post-mortem findings and why he believes more questions need to be asked.
Watch the full interview in Karl Weekly – link in bio.
https://x.com/karlstefanovic/status/2069677051347415541
definitely wasnt the smoking, the diet of fast food and baked beans and drinking piss for 20 years.....it definitely wasn't the cocaine or the Viagra, it was the VAX sheeple🫤
https://x.com/CmonMick/status/2069684691620491620
https://x.com/bethrigby/status/2069660346629972055?s=61
'Wait and see' about everything is the opposite of the excellent and ancient 'mindfulness' which is supposed to be a thing in these media soaked days. All the great wisdom people emphasise that unless you focus on 'now' - the moment memorably described by CS Lewis and maybe others as the point at which time touches eternity - you will be waiting and seeing a long time.
Today is the traditional midsummer day.
There's no "vision" anywhere else especially not from the Conservatives or Reform. I suppose the Greens and Restore have "visions" of a sort but neither are compelling or practical.
She has picked some fights, sometimes unwisely, she has seen off Starmer without being at all stellar at the despatch box. What memes, what bits of feed, what bot lines are not getting to me here? I'm microsegmented out of the Kemi revival, it seems.
Because it's something of a mystery not just to me, but by the sounds of things to a lot of people on here.
What are you guys seeing that I'm not?
In isolation her ratings are more Ed Miliband than David Cameron.
Starmer: Have you seen my word cloud? One of the biggest words is 'good'!
Lackey: Unfortunately, the other word that stands out is 'not'
One doubtful thing is now clear: it is very likely that we know who will lead Labour in the next election. It is only fairly likely that we know about leading the Tories. Kemi is about evens to stay till 2029.
If Burnham fails, the Tories, however improbably, lead the next government. SFAICS the Tories don't have anyone capable of winning against a successful and resurgent Burnham. But there are lots of votes going spare for a party coming second, and most of those are going to look to the Tories. To do so, people have to have a reasonably positive view of Kemi. Which increasingly they have. I am a Tory, but don't share that view of Kemi.
1) No more increases in business taxation
2) No more increases in pension taxation
Reeves twice allowing months of speculation about increases in business and pension taxation had detrimental effects on business investment and pension planning.
near the top of the Labour Party (likely to be demoted so won’t be as useful) tipped a Burnham coronation weeks ago. I posted as much here.
Which rather give the impression that he's insecure, vacuous and with little clue as to what he's talking about.
A forerunner of the moment in 2024 when it became clear that Starmer had no secret either.
If Burnham has a plan it might help.
Perhaps because he is vacuous, insecure and with little clue as to what he's talking about ?
As a reminder there was absolutely no need for Burnham to talk about bond markets last year yet he chose to do so and there was absolutely no need for Burnham to talk about waspi this month yet he chose to do so.
Makerfield had specific local issues which lead to some unusual voting patterns.
Burnham should give Labour a bounce given Labour, LD and Green and even Tory voters see him as an asset to his party even if Reform voters do not. Kemi will also be encouraged by the fact every party's voters except the Greens see her as an asset. She will also be pleased she polls slightly better with Reform voters at 40% than Farage does with Tory voters at 39%
..Separately, when it came to Burnham’s plans, Jones said “there’s room to borrow a little bit more” for specific projects.
He also referred to concerns from some MPs about who would emerge as a new chancellor if Burnham moves – as expected – to replace Rachel Reeves..
..Asked for his view of Miliband as chancellor, Jones said: “I’m not going to get into personalities.” But setting out his “tests” for who takes on the role, he said: “I think the next chancellor needs to be able to have a clear view about the political economy and understand how the Treasury works.
“I think they need to have an important relationship with the prime minister, because, quite frankly, in many circumstances the chancellor in the Treasury is more powerful than the prime minister in Downing Street.
“So, you have to have someone that’s going to enable the delivery of the prime minister’s priorities and not try to control the prime minister. And that relationship is really critical.
“You also need a chancellor that can reassure the markets, reassure the trade unions and reassure the parliamentary Labour party, and by extension the public.”
Asked whether Miliband fell short of his tests, Jones said: “I will let you mark those tests, but those are the tests I think need to be met.”..
I agree with the bolded bit, so I hope it really isn't Milliband.
Streeting would probably pass that test, as he doesn't have a strong base in the party.
There's also the possibility of an old lag like Pat McFadden.
Boris had his uses, I never expected that he would have zero self-control or that the Conservative party would put no controls over him.
That Labour are so enthused about their equivalent of Boris does bring to mind the history repeats itself quote.
I still don't see Badenoch's attraction to voters. Other than getting bigged up after a disastrous set of locals, what has she done to deserve the adulation?