Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
No she backs Brexit on current terms so is not going to do any deals with the LDs. Kemi is fine with a Millwall ‘no other parties like us and we don’t care’ approach for the Conservatives at present. The Conservatives are an alternative to Labour, the LDs and Greens and Reform and Restore not a crutch to prop them up in failing governments
The conservatives havent got enough support to form a government and are unlikely to have such before the next election bar a black swan event,
Kemi can position all she likes but who in their right mid trusts those in her party. The Conservatives lack credibility.
Instead she is putting party before country and trying to leave us stuck with a permanent left wing government.
Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end
I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.
And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.
I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.
If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.
Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!
The other factor playing against Putin, which you won't say so I will, is that there is another reason time is not in his favour.
The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.
Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.
Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.
If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.
Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end
I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.
And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.
I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.
If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.
Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!
I was optimistically hoping when I planned my current Anatolian trip that the Iranians would have got rid of their government by now and would be welcoming Western visitors. I could have popped across the border from Dogubayazit. Sadly hasn't happened, and the Don-Bibi efforts have probably put it back years.
It truly is astonishing that just one year and eleven months after winning a historic landslide, Starmer is terminally damaged and has only days left.
This is just a consequent ripple following the astonishing experience of Liz Truss as PM. It will take time for that to work its way out of the political system.
Had Liz Truss not been PM then there's very little chance that Starmer would have become PM, certainly not with a landslide. Nobody liked him enough to make him PM.
We are yet to see whether Burnham has the ability to bring normality back (my guess is no, but I have my moments of hope).
It follows then that we should expect future astonishing events - such as Farage becoming PM when going into the election with only a handful of MPs.
Sorry for being boring, but Truss' polling nadir was 19% in October '22. When he came in, Sunak received a grown ups in the room bounce and got to 26%. If he had built on that percentage, and add in the swingback we saw, he could have held Starmer off. Instead he chose to be the Dismal Decline Manager and he got the Tories down to 18%. Lower than Truss.
PB shrewdies just like Sunak so they airbrush his polling trajectory from history.
They knocked 4% off employee NI, possibly the biggest tax reduction average working people got over any Parliament - and yet even that didn't do Rishi any favours.
I think the reality was there was nothing Rishi could do to stem the decline..
Edit - also we don't know the depths Truss could have hit if she had remained in no 10 for even just a few more weeks. I suspect she could easily have hit Kemi's lowest polling and gone even lower.
Again, Sunak was already polling at 26% shortly after he came in. You are arguing that he could do nothing to recover from Truss, but he had already recovered from Truss. What he couldn't do was govern effectively and maintain or build on it. That’s hardly Truss's fault.
As for your counterfactuals, you can claim that - equally I could say (and frequently did during Sunak's tenure) that the economic impact of a fully implemented minibudget would have been a significant boost to the economy and a general feeling that the country had turned a corner. But the reality is that neither of us know, we only know what did happen, which is what I've outlined above.
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP which more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
It truly is astonishing that just one year and eleven months after winning a historic landslide, Starmer is terminally damaged and has only days left.
This is just a consequent ripple following the astonishing experience of Liz Truss as PM. It will take time for that to work its way out of the political system.
Had Liz Truss not been PM then there's very little chance that Starmer would have become PM, certainly not with a landslide. Nobody liked him enough to make him PM.
We are yet to see whether Burnham has the ability to bring normality back (my guess is no, but I have my moments of hope).
It follows then that we should expect future astonishing events - such as Farage becoming PM when going into the election with only a handful of MPs.
Sorry for being boring, but Truss' polling nadir was 19% in October '22. When he came in, Sunak received a grown ups in the room bounce and got to 26%. If he had built on that percentage, and add in the swingback we saw, he could have held Starmer off. Instead he chose to be the Dismal Decline Manager and he got the Tories down to 18%. Lower than Truss.
PB shrewdies just like Sunak so they airbrush his polling trajectory from history.
I didn't mention Sunak because he's irrelevant to what happened.
Oh, my mistake, I thought he was the one who fought the election.
Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end
I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.
And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.
I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.
If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.
Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!
The other factor playing against Putin, which you won't say so I will, is that there is another reason time is not in his favour.
The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.
Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.
Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.
If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.
French Presidential election soon.
Is Le Pen more like Orban or Meloni when it comes to Ukraine v Russia?
Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end
I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.
And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.
I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.
If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.
Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!
The other factor playing against Putin, which you won't say so I will, is that there is another reason time is not in his favour.
The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.
Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.
Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.
If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.
I agree that the Oval Office meeting a year ago was the lowest point. Trump was wrong to take the attitude that he did.
Ukraine has now gone and made their own long-range weapons, and are taking the fight to Moscow directly. The US, under both presidents, has been unwilling to let American weapons be fired into Russia.
There’s also been continual US support for Ukraine in terms of intelligence, which Trump will play down to his sceptical home audience but is still very much happening. Also the Starlink situation, where Ukraine has it and Russia doesn’t, was a huge change.
The readout from the G7 this week is that Trump now knows Putin has been lying to him, and Russia doesn’t want to make peace but instead wage war.
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
The best decisions the Tories took in office were:
- threatening to split off Openreach from BT Group, forcing them to become FTTP first and then to pursue one of the fastest FTTP rollouts in history, aiming for 99% of all homes when the original ambition was a pathetic 10-20%; and - stopping Jeremy Corbyn from becoming PM.
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
No she backs Brexit on current terms so is not going to do any deals with the LDs. Kemi is fine with a Millwall ‘no other parties like us and we don’t care’ approach for the Conservatives at present. The Conservatives are an alternative to Labour, the LDs and Greens and Reform and Restore not a crutch to prop them up in failing governments
The conservatives havent got enough support to form a government and are unlikely to have such before the next election bar a black swan event,
Kemi can position all she likes but who in their right mid trusts those in her party. The Conservatives lack credibility.
Instead she is putting party before country and trying to leave us stuck with a permanent left wing government.
I think the right thing to do just now is to differentiate the parties and pooh pooh the idea of a deal. What's right after the election is an entirely different thing.
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
You weren't trying to buy a flat at the time as I was, then. What a staggeringly arrogant post.
Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end
I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.
And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.
I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.
If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.
Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!
The other factor playing against Putin, which you won't say so I will, is that there is another reason time is not in his favour.
The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.
Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.
Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.
If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.
French Presidential election soon.
Is Le Pen more like Orban or Meloni when it comes to Ukraine v Russia?
Probably Bardella you should look at. LePen finds here future early next month when the court decides.
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
You weren't trying to buy a flat at the time as I was, then. What a staggeringly arrogant post.
Can Andy Burnham get into Downing Street? Not without the help of a policeman it would seem... I was digging through BBC's archives and found this gem from 2007
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
You weren't trying to buy a flat at the time as I was, then. What a staggeringly arrogant post.
‘Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, advised Donald Trump not to host Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, having called the Ukrainian president a “little fucker”, a “special-needs child” and “Mr Bean on crack”, according to a new book.’ https://x.com/shashj/status/2068356203659280831
Never forgave Zelensky for standing up to him in Kyiv and refusing to sign away Ukraine’s mineral rights. According to our correspondent who saw Bessent, immediately afterwards, he was trembling after meeting Zelensky https://x.com/gideonrachman/status/2068637907670241459
Is there a single normal person in the Trump administration ?
Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end
I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.
And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.
I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.
If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.
Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!
The other factor playing against Putin, which you won't say so I will, is that there is another reason time is not in his favour.
The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.
Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.
Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.
If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.
French Presidential election soon.
Is Le Pen more like Orban or Meloni when it comes to Ukraine v Russia?
Probably Bardella you should look at. LePen finds here future early next month when the court decides.
It truly is astonishing that just one year and eleven months after winning a historic landslide, Starmer is terminally damaged and has only days left.
This is just a consequent ripple following the astonishing experience of Liz Truss as PM. It will take time for that to work its way out of the political system.
Had Liz Truss not been PM then there's very little chance that Starmer would have become PM, certainly not with a landslide. Nobody liked him enough to make him PM.
We are yet to see whether Burnham has the ability to bring normality back (my guess is no, but I have my moments of hope).
It follows then that we should expect future astonishing events - such as Farage becoming PM when going into the election with only a handful of MPs.
Sorry for being boring, but Truss' polling nadir was 19% in October '22. When he came in, Sunak received a grown ups in the room bounce and got to 26%. If he had built on that percentage, and add in the swingback we saw, he could have held Starmer off. Instead he chose to be the Dismal Decline Manager and he got the Tories down to 18%. Lower than Truss.
PB shrewdies just like Sunak so they airbrush his polling trajectory from history.
I didn't mention Sunak because he's irrelevant to what happened.
Oh, my mistake, I thought he was the one who fought the election.
No-one could repair the damage Truss did to the reputation of the Tories in two years.
‘Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, advised Donald Trump not to host Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, having called the Ukrainian president a “little fucker”, a “special-needs child” and “Mr Bean on crack”, according to a new book.’ https://x.com/shashj/status/2068356203659280831
Never forgave Zelensky for standing up to him in Kyiv and refusing to sign away Ukraine’s mineral rights. According to our correspondent who saw Bessent, immediately afterwards, he was trembling after meeting Zelensky https://x.com/gideonrachman/status/2068637907670241459
Is there a single normal person in the Trump administration ?
When the Bank announced its £80bn bond sell off (which literally took away £80bn of Treasury headroom via the indemnity scheme), she and Kwasi should have cancelled the minibudget, and turned every bazooka on the Bank of England, calling them out for undermining Government policy and threatening to pull the plug on the scheme unless the policy was reversed. Then done the minibdudget when that was sorted.
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
You weren't trying to buy a flat at the time as I was, then. What a staggeringly arrogant post.
Why is you buying a flat my prime concern ?
Shit happens and you get over it.
Yeah, that's why the Tories lost.
Indeed and Labour will be close behind as their record on the economy is appalling.
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
You weren't trying to buy a flat at the time as I was, then. What a staggeringly arrogant post.
Why is you buying a flat my prime concern ?
Shit happens and you get over it.
Yeah, that's why the Tories lost.
Indeed and Labour will be close behind as their record on the economy is appalling.
Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end
I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.
And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.
I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.
If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.
Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!
The other factor playing against Putin, which you won't say so I will, is that there is another reason time is not in his favour.
The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.
Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.
Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.
If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.
I agree that the Oval Office meeting a year ago was the lowest point. Trump was wrong to take the attitude that he did.
Ukraine has now gone and made their own long-range weapons, and are taking the fight to Moscow directly. The US, under both presidents, has been unwilling to let American weapons be fired into Russia.
There’s also been continual US support for Ukraine in terms of intelligence, which Trump will play down to his sceptical home audience but is still very much happening. Also the Starlink situation, where Ukraine has it and Russia doesn’t, was a huge change.
The readout from the G7 this week is that Trump now knows Putin has been lying to him, and Russia doesn’t want to make peace but instead wage war.
Does Trump support Ukraine's claim to its 1991 eastern border? Yes or no?
Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end
I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.
And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.
I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.
If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.
Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!
The other factor playing against Putin, which you won't say so I will, is that there is another reason time is not in his favour.
The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.
Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.
Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.
If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.
French Presidential election soon.
Is Le Pen more like Orban or Meloni when it comes to Ukraine v Russia?
Probably Bardella you should look at. LePen finds here future early next month when the court decides.
Bardella seems to be somewhere between Orban and Meloni in his Russian attitudes. More emollient than some but also aware that being openly pro-Putin loses votes.
The French far right has had to recalibrate its Trump adjacency too. The same political calculation playing out across the continent.
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
You weren't trying to buy a flat at the time as I was, then. What a staggeringly arrogant post.
Why is you buying a flat my prime concern ?
Shit happens and you get over it.
Yeah, that's why the Tories lost.
Indeed and Labour will be close behind as their record on the economy is appalling.
Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end
I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.
And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.
I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.
If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.
Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!
The other factor playing against Putin, which you won't say so I will, is that there is another reason time is not in his favour.
The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.
Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.
Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.
If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.
I think its even more remarkable than that. They have survived their betrayal by Trump and the restriction of material from the USA by some additional support from Europe (including us) but mainly by their astonishing innovation and ingenuity.
They were restricted for years because any long range weapons they were supplied (including our storm shadows) came with conditions that they were not to be used on Russian soil. So they built their own. They did not get enough anti-drone and air defences, so they built their own and now they are world leading in the field. They didn't get enough tanks to take on the massed ranks from Russia so they made them irrelevant and frankly suicidal to be in. They have far fewer men and they are increasingly making that irrelevant too as drones fight their battles with barely a human in sight. They have printed their own cards.
They are now clearly winning a war against what was supposed to have been a superpower. The price that they have paid for this and continue to pay is very high but what a people! What a country! What a leader!
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
You weren't trying to buy a flat at the time as I was, then. What a staggeringly arrogant post.
Why is you buying a flat my prime concern ?
Shit happens and you get over it.
Yeah, that's why the Tories lost.
Indeed and Labour will be close behind as their record on the economy is appalling.
I do not believe Labour will lose in 2029.
We have another 3 years of fking up the economy.
Brave call.
Yes just like when I said Johnson was going to lose after Hartlepool.
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
Sadly for Liz (and the Cons) the public were not so insouciant. It looked too much like rank incompetence and economic illiteracy.
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
You weren't trying to buy a flat at the time as I was, then. What a staggeringly arrogant post.
Why is you buying a flat my prime concern ?
Shit happens and you get over it.
Yeah, that's why the Tories lost.
Indeed and Labour will be close behind as their record on the economy is appalling.
I do not believe Labour will lose in 2029.
We have another 3 years of fking up the economy.
Brave call.
Yes just like when I said Johnson was going to lose after Hartlepool.
It truly is astonishing that just one year and eleven months after winning a historic landslide, Starmer is terminally damaged and has only days left.
This is just a consequent ripple following the astonishing experience of Liz Truss as PM. It will take time for that to work its way out of the political system.
Had Liz Truss not been PM then there's very little chance that Starmer would have become PM, certainly not with a landslide. Nobody liked him enough to make him PM.
We are yet to see whether Burnham has the ability to bring normality back (my guess is no, but I have my moments of hope).
It follows then that we should expect future astonishing events - such as Farage becoming PM when going into the election with only a handful of MPs.
Sorry for being boring, but Truss' polling nadir was 19% in October '22. When he came in, Sunak received a grown ups in the room bounce and got to 26%. If he had built on that percentage, and add in the swingback we saw, he could have held Starmer off. Instead he chose to be the Dismal Decline Manager and he got the Tories down to 18%. Lower than Truss.
PB shrewdies just like Sunak so they airbrush his polling trajectory from history.
I didn't mention Sunak because he's irrelevant to what happened.
Oh, my mistake, I thought he was the one who fought the election.
No-one could repair the damage Truss did to the reputation of the Tories in two years.
Are you OK? I have just explained that that damage was repaired, when Sunak came in. His subsequent polling descent from 26% to 18% is all on him, it has nothing to do with Truss.
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
Sadly for Liz (and the Cons) the public were not so insouciant. It looked too much like rank incompetence and economic illiteracy.
Maybe, but personally it's a non event as far as Im concerned.
‘Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, advised Donald Trump not to host Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, having called the Ukrainian president a “little fucker”, a “special-needs child” and “Mr Bean on crack”, according to a new book.’ https://x.com/shashj/status/2068356203659280831
Never forgave Zelensky for standing up to him in Kyiv and refusing to sign away Ukraine’s mineral rights. According to our correspondent who saw Bessent, immediately afterwards, he was trembling after meeting Zelensky https://x.com/gideonrachman/status/2068637907670241459
Is there a single normal person in the Trump administration ?
Rubio probably closest to a standard horrible GOP right winger. Abasing himself before Trump has probably deformed him morally for good though.
‘Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, advised Donald Trump not to host Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, having called the Ukrainian president a “little fucker”, a “special-needs child” and “Mr Bean on crack”, according to a new book.’ https://x.com/shashj/status/2068356203659280831
Never forgave Zelensky for standing up to him in Kyiv and refusing to sign away Ukraine’s mineral rights. According to our correspondent who saw Bessent, immediately afterwards, he was trembling after meeting Zelensky https://x.com/gideonrachman/status/2068637907670241459
Is there a single normal person in the Trump administration ?
Rubio probably closest to a standard horrible GOP right winger. Abasing himself before Trump has probably deformed him morally for good though.
Given that Iran was lobbied for by Rubio and Trump was against it instinctively (both before and since), who is the deformer and who is the deformed?
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
You weren't trying to buy a flat at the time as I was, then. What a staggeringly arrogant post.
Why is you buying a flat my prime concern ?
Shit happens and you get over it.
Yeah, that's why the Tories lost.
Indeed and Labour will be close behind as their record on the economy is appalling.
I do not believe Labour will lose in 2029.
Rough approximation model of UK General Elections:
Whichever side/bloc is less divided, or more efficiently divided, wins.
Because of that, Kemi and Nigel need an understanding. But because they're both divas, and Nigel is toxic to many, they can't come to an understanding.
Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end
I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.
And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.
I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.
If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.
Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!
The other factor playing against Putin, which you won't say so I will, is that there is another reason time is not in his favour.
The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.
Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.
Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.
If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.
French Presidential election soon.
Is Le Pen more like Orban or Meloni when it comes to Ukraine v Russia?
Probably Bardella you should look at. LePen finds here future early next month when the court decides.
Bardella seems to be somewhere between Orban and Meloni in his Russian attitudes. More emollient than some but also aware that being openly pro-Putin loses votes.
The French far right has had to recalibrate its Trump adjacency too. The same political calculation playing out across the continent.
Perhaps Trump could try and interfere in the French election and back Bardella ! That’s now a sure fire way to see them lose .
It truly is astonishing that just one year and eleven months after winning a historic landslide, Starmer is terminally damaged and has only days left.
This is just a consequent ripple following the astonishing experience of Liz Truss as PM. It will take time for that to work its way out of the political system.
Had Liz Truss not been PM then there's very little chance that Starmer would have become PM, certainly not with a landslide. Nobody liked him enough to make him PM.
We are yet to see whether Burnham has the ability to bring normality back (my guess is no, but I have my moments of hope).
It follows then that we should expect future astonishing events - such as Farage becoming PM when going into the election with only a handful of MPs.
Sorry for being boring, but Truss' polling nadir was 19% in October '22. When he came in, Sunak received a grown ups in the room bounce and got to 26%. If he had built on that percentage, and add in the swingback we saw, he could have held Starmer off. Instead he chose to be the Dismal Decline Manager and he got the Tories down to 18%. Lower than Truss.
PB shrewdies just like Sunak so they airbrush his polling trajectory from history.
I didn't mention Sunak because he's irrelevant to what happened.
Oh, my mistake, I thought he was the one who fought the election.
No-one could repair the damage Truss did to the reputation of the Tories in two years.
Are you OK? I have just explained that that damage was repaired, when Sunak came in. His subsequent polling descent from 26% to 18% is all on him, it has nothing to do with Truss.
You clearly do not understand how public opinion changes if you believe that to be the case.
Also, it's really weird that you are citing this polling figure of 18% for Sunak. What did the Tories poll at GE2024?
Also, just for a bit of fun, what were the swings against Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss personally in their individual constituencies at GE2024?
What might a reasonable person conclude about the relative popularity of the two Tory Prime Ministers?
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
You weren't trying to buy a flat at the time as I was, then. What a staggeringly arrogant post.
Why is you buying a flat my prime concern ?
Shit happens and you get over it.
Yeah, that's why the Tories lost.
Indeed and Labour will be close behind as their record on the economy is appalling.
I do not believe Labour will lose in 2029.
Rough approximation model of UK General Elections:
Whichever side/bloc is less divided, or more efficiently divided, wins.
Because of that, Kemi and Nigel need an understanding. But because they're both divas, and Nigel is toxic to many, they can't come to an understanding.
Everything else is noise.
They need to disagree to appeal to different voter blocs. Farage - WWC, a good portion of pensioners. Tories - young white collar professionals, small to medium-sized business people, people who do something in the city, posh people in the shires. Obviously with some crossover.
Add them up when the election has happened, you have a powerful coalition representing the majority of the electorate.
‘Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, advised Donald Trump not to host Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, having called the Ukrainian president a “little fucker”, a “special-needs child” and “Mr Bean on crack”, according to a new book.’ https://x.com/shashj/status/2068356203659280831
Never forgave Zelensky for standing up to him in Kyiv and refusing to sign away Ukraine’s mineral rights. According to our correspondent who saw Bessent, immediately afterwards, he was trembling after meeting Zelensky https://x.com/gideonrachman/status/2068637907670241459
Is there a single normal person in the Trump administration ?
Rubio probably closest to a standard horrible GOP right winger. Abasing himself before Trump has probably deformed him morally for good though.
Given that Iran was lobbied for by Rubio and Trump was against it instinctively (both before and since), who is the deformer and who is the deformed?
Given the buck ($billions in Trump’s case) stops with the prez and Iran would never have happened without his blessing, I’d say the deformation starts at the top. In any case much as I think any intervention in Iran would be a pile of shit, such a hawkish position has been pretty popular on the standard horrible GOP right for decades.
A minor point, no doubt, but it interests me: Will Victoria have to give back all those clothes, if (when?) her husband leaves office? And, if so, who gets them?
Who gets the lingerie? That will be Victoria's Secret.
The strange thing is to back a man who supports Russia, in Trump. That's a very odd thing for a "pro Ukraine" person to do.
But some people just cannot see how crap Trump is I suppose.
Sandpit has far more reason to be invested in supporting Ukraine than anyone else here. He regularly posts about Russian defeats too. But it’s a PB purity test. Like the time Jessop harassed him of the sites for lack of purity.
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
Sadly for Liz (and the Cons) the public were not so insouciant. It looked too much like rank incompetence and economic illiteracy.
Maybe, but personally it's a non event as far as Im concerned.
I also sailed through it as it happens. But it was big politically, no question. Brand new PM axed after 47 days, Tory rep on the £££ down the toilet and double flushed.
Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end
I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.
And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.
I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.
If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.
Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!
The other factor playing against Putin, which you won't say so I will, is that there is another reason time is not in his favour.
The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.
Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.
Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.
If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.
I think its even more remarkable than that. They have survived their betrayal by Trump and the restriction of material from the USA by some additional support from Europe (including us) but mainly by their astonishing innovation and ingenuity.
They were restricted for years because any long range weapons they were supplied (including our storm shadows) came with conditions that they were not to be used on Russian soil. So they built their own. They did not get enough anti-drone and air defences, so they built their own and now they are world leading in the field. They didn't get enough tanks to take on the massed ranks from Russia so they made them irrelevant and frankly suicidal to be in. They have far fewer men and they are increasingly making that irrelevant too as drones fight their battles with barely a human in sight. They have printed their own cards.
They are now clearly winning a war against what was supposed to have been a superpower. The price that they have paid for this and continue to pay is very high but what a people! What a country! What a leader!
JD Vance was very proud that he had fucked over Ukraine like a cheap DFS sofa.
The European support for Ukraine is a direct "fuck you!" back at Vance.
Things could move very fast in Moscow. You have to wonder how British politcs - especially on the right/far right - would be impacted by the lack of the Putin-fed bot farms on social media.
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
Sadly for Liz (and the Cons) the public were not so insouciant. It looked too much like rank incompetence and economic illiteracy.
Maybe, but personally it's a non event as far as Im concerned.
I also sailed through it as it happens. But it was big politically, no question. Brand new PM axed after 47 days, Tory rep on the £££ down the toilet and double flushed.
It's the political overhang of a failed government. May, Bojo Truss etc get the blame, but personally I think it all goes back to Cameron who wasnt as good a PM as the thought he'd be.
I couldn't care less how nice Burnham is. It's Labour's rubbish policies which are the problem. If Burnham keeps on with the digital ID/VPN banning and jury trial nonsense, for instance, there's no point changing leader.
Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end
I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.
And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.
I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.
If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.
Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!
The other factor playing against Putin, which you won't say so I will, is that there is another reason time is not in his favour.
The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.
Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.
Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.
If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.
I think its even more remarkable than that. They have survived their betrayal by Trump and the restriction of material from the USA by some additional support from Europe (including us) but mainly by their astonishing innovation and ingenuity.
They were restricted for years because any long range weapons they were supplied (including our storm shadows) came with conditions that they were not to be used on Russian soil. So they built their own. They did not get enough anti-drone and air defences, so they built their own and now they are world leading in the field. They didn't get enough tanks to take on the massed ranks from Russia so they made them irrelevant and frankly suicidal to be in. They have far fewer men and they are increasingly making that irrelevant too as drones fight their battles with barely a human in sight. They have printed their own cards.
They are now clearly winning a war against what was supposed to have been a superpower. The price that they have paid for this and continue to pay is very high but what a people! What a country! What a leader!
JD Vance was very proud that he had fucked over Ukraine like a cheap DFS sofa.
The European support for Ukraine is a direct "fuck you!" back at Vance.
Things could move very fast in Moscow. You have to wonder how British politcs - especially on the right/far right - would be impacted by the lack of the Putin-fed bot farms on social media.
I personally will be very surprised if Putin is alive, let alone in charge, by the end of this year. Its one of the things that makes me hesitate about our defence panic. The major threat is on the road to complete collapse and regime change. We are getting far, far more out of the £3bn we spend on Ukraine's defence than the £60bn we spend on our own.
Russian milblogger reports a catastrophic situation in Crimea
- No electricity
- No water
- No fuel
Counts for nothing until
- No Russians
Call me optimistic (because I’m optimistic), but I reckon we’re about a week or two away from an evacuation of Crimea.
It may even end up with a UN humanitarian airlift operation of tens of thousands of people, Putin’s final humiliation.
Why would Zelensky obstruct any evacuation of Crimea? Presumably it can be done fairly easily as long as it’s not under fire, and it would be a massive propaganda coup for Ukraine.
Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end
I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.
And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.
I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.
If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.
Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!
The other factor playing against Putin, which you won't say so I will, is that there is another reason time is not in his favour.
The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.
Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.
Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.
If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.
I think its even more remarkable than that. They have survived their betrayal by Trump and the restriction of material from the USA by some additional support from Europe (including us) but mainly by their astonishing innovation and ingenuity.
They were restricted for years because any long range weapons they were supplied (including our storm shadows) came with conditions that they were not to be used on Russian soil. So they built their own. They did not get enough anti-drone and air defences, so they built their own and now they are world leading in the field. They didn't get enough tanks to take on the massed ranks from Russia so they made them irrelevant and frankly suicidal to be in. They have far fewer men and they are increasingly making that irrelevant too as drones fight their battles with barely a human in sight. They have printed their own cards.
They are now clearly winning a war against what was supposed to have been a superpower. The price that they have paid for this and continue to pay is very high but what a people! What a country! What a leader!
JD Vance was very proud that he had fucked over Ukraine like a cheap DFS sofa.
The European support for Ukraine is a direct "fuck you!" back at Vance.
Things could move very fast in Moscow. You have to wonder how British politcs - especially on the right/far right - would be impacted by the lack of the Putin-fed bot farms on social media.
Depends whether there are also Trump fed (and/or Musk supported) operations emanating from across the Atlantic.
Its felt for a while that the heaviest foreign thumb on the scale of our domestic social media commentary has been American.
I couldn't care less how nice Burnham is. It's Labour's rubbish policies which are the problem. If Burnham keeps on with the digital ID/VPN banning and jury trial nonsense, for instance, there's no point changing leader.
Yet Labour supporters think it’s the presentation not the policies
Russian milblogger reports a catastrophic situation in Crimea
- No electricity
- No water
- No fuel
Counts for nothing until
- No Russians
Call me optimistic (because I’m optimistic), but I reckon we’re about a week or two away from an evacuation of Crimea.
It may even end up with a UN humanitarian airlift operation of tens of thousands of people, Putin’s final humiliation.
Why would Zelensky obstruct any evacuation of Crimea? Presumably it can be done fairly easily as long as it’s not under fire, and it would be a massive propaganda coup for Ukraine.
He’ll agree a ceasefire to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in Crimea - but will make sure that Putin gets absolutely humiliated by it. Harming civilians really isn’t Ukraine’s MO.
There’s an opportunity for the UN, Red Cross, and other international charities to help out here, start talking next week about the lack of water and electricity across Crimea…
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
You weren't trying to buy a flat at the time as I was, then. What a staggeringly arrogant post.
Why is you buying a flat my prime concern ?
Shit happens and you get over it.
Yeah, that's why the Tories lost.
Indeed and Labour will be close behind as their record on the economy is appalling.
I do not believe Labour will lose in 2029.
Rough approximation model of UK General Elections:
Whichever side/bloc is less divided, or more efficiently divided, wins.
Because of that, Kemi and Nigel need an understanding. But because they're both divas, and Nigel is toxic to many, they can't come to an understanding.
Everything else is noise.
They need to disagree to appeal to different voter blocs. Farage - WWC, a good portion of pensioners. Tories - young white collar professionals, small to medium-sized business people, people who do something in the city, posh people in the shires. Obviously with some crossover.
Add them up when the election has happened, you have a powerful coalition representing the majority of the electorate.
In theory, yes- that would be an efficient divsion of effort, similar to "If your window has a leafy view, vote Lib Dem. Otherwise, vote Labour." It's not quite as simple as that, for a couple of reasons. One is that it takes time for electorates to learn- look how long it took LibLab to stop fighting each other. More importantly, there's still a lot of mutual resentment and suspicion, firing in both directions. Both parties are still competing for the white-haired no-longer-working class.
Russian milblogger reports a catastrophic situation in Crimea
- No electricity
- No water
- No fuel
Counts for nothing until
- No Russians
Call me optimistic (because I’m optimistic), but I reckon we’re about a week or two away from an evacuation of Crimea.
It may even end up with a UN humanitarian airlift operation of tens of thousands of people, Putin’s final humiliation.
As I have suggested, the head of the Russian garrison should be given sanctuary* in a European county and $100m to surrender. Which would have a suitable Medieval feel to it as an outcome.
In return the Ukrainians will provide the coaches to take the Russian garrison - but none of their weapons - out over the Kerch Bridge. Once the last coach has offloaded the troops - and any other Russians rethinking their decision to buy a cheap Crimean property - then the Russian explosives captured in Crimea will be detonated in a world-wide press event to bring down the Bridge. Which would be fittingly humiliating for Russians - and Putin especially.
(*always assuming he isn't persona;lly associated with war crimes).
The whole of the land bridge to Crimea would then become far more difficult for the Russians to sustain.
We could indeed see a dramatic shift in scenario by the end of the summer.
I couldn't care less how nice Burnham is. It's Labour's rubbish policies which are the problem. If Burnham keeps on with the digital ID/VPN banning and jury trial nonsense, for instance, there's no point changing leader.
He can start by killing (sic) the return of the AD Bill. The Canadian stories on this are utterly horrific.
It's quite something that in just two years Labour's gone from "let's learn the lessons from Tory misrule" to "we'll give our Boris a go". I can only assume that this is because the Labour parliamentary party is full of backbenchers who are wet behind the ears, easily frightened, and politically inept. God help us.
ABC Australia youtube series on "Who Broke Britain". I can't recommend it because each episode is between 10-20 mins and there are five of them. But if you want to plough through it, here it is:
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
Sadly for Liz (and the Cons) the public were not so insouciant. It looked too much like rank incompetence and economic illiteracy.
Maybe, but personally it's a non event as far as Im concerned.
I also sailed through it as it happens. But it was big politically, no question. Brand new PM axed after 47 days, Tory rep on the £££ down the toilet and double flushed.
It's the political overhang of a failed government. May, Bojo Truss etc get the blame, but personally I think it all goes back to Cameron who wasnt as good a PM as the thought he'd be.
Neglect of many parts of the public realm under Cameron certainly stored up problems for his successors, and of course he topped that with the disaster of Brexit, but the political overhang was not evident. Up until the Johnson implosion and subsequent 47 day Trussterfuck the Cons were tracking in the polls for yet another GE win. Afterwards it became only a question of how big the Labour win would be.
Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
No it’s not.
There’s other options.
Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM
Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?
No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government
Kemi's in no position to form a government,
She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.
No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform
Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?
The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.
Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.
It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..
I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,
The Tory USP that more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is that they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.
Tbh I didnt even notice the Truss shock either personally or at work. To me most of it was a City flap because a lot of overpaid people found themselves wrong sided.
You weren't trying to buy a flat at the time as I was, then. What a staggeringly arrogant post.
Why is you buying a flat my prime concern ?
Shit happens and you get over it.
Yeah, that's why the Tories lost.
Indeed and Labour will be close behind as their record on the economy is appalling.
I do not believe Labour will lose in 2029.
Rough approximation model of UK General Elections:
Whichever side/bloc is less divided, or more efficiently divided, wins.
Because of that, Kemi and Nigel need an understanding. But because they're both divas, and Nigel is toxic to many, they can't come to an understanding.
Everything else is noise.
They need to disagree to appeal to different voter blocs. Farage - WWC, a good portion of pensioners. Tories - young white collar professionals, small to medium-sized business people, people who do something in the city, posh people in the shires. Obviously with some crossover.
Add them up when the election has happened, you have a powerful coalition representing the majority of the electorate.
We've just had a real time exercise in testing Farage's preternatural attraction to the WWC.
I couldn't care less how nice Burnham is. It's Labour's rubbish policies which are the problem. If Burnham keeps on with the digital ID/VPN banning and jury trial nonsense, for instance, there's no point changing leader.
He can start by killing (sic) the return of the AD Bill. The Canadian stories on this are utterly horrific.
Denying Starmer his legacy into the bargain would be a good way of showing his political ruthlessness.
I feel sad for Starmer but not sad to see him go. He's obviously a decent and hard working man. But he is hamstrung by a lack of political vision and an inability to project warmth. In other words, he is in many respects a bad politician. Maybe he will be one of those PMs that we learn to love more after he leaves office, like John Major (another non Oxford lower middle class striver who the press took against). IMHO despite his obvious flaws he was probably the best Labour leader since Blair. Who knows, maybe we will miss him.
"AI risks triggering ‘catastrophic’ phone network blackouts Ofcom raises alarm over risks linked to use of automation technology for monitoring networks" (£)
There are two main concerns with AI. One is that it can be used to find bugs in the code that can be exploited by hostile states, terrorists or criminals. Last week, the US Government blocked the export (or any use by foreigners) of Anthropic's latest models on these grounds. Effectively, the US Government is treating these AI models as weapons and regulating them accordingly.
The other concern is about cock-ups rather than conspiracies. If AI is used in routine maintenance of networks and spots a fault, it might take actions to rectify the situation faster than any human could react, and thus keep the network up so no-one notices the problem. The fear is that AI might apply the wrong fix and crash the whole network. You may recall seeing examples from other industries where production databases have been deleted or millions of dollars of trading losses.
The latest Anthropic AI, “Mythos” or “Fable 5”, allegedly managed to crack a whole load of US defence systems within hours, which is what led to the export ban and the company pulling the model from production.
Incidentally, the fact that the US Government can block exports of and access to AI models shows how fatuous are British claims to AI leadership. As is our wont with frontier research, British academics are underfunded and British companies sold, including what is now Google Deep Mind. All the AI action is now in America and China.
Yup. A massive opportunity lost with the DeepMind sale, and a chance to cement a Brexit benefit outside the strangulating EU AI regulation.
The US now has most of the West over a barrel, at a time when most of them really don’t like the orange man in the white house.
Haven't you ever wondered why Trump is orange? Like why the hell does he smear his face with orange make-up? Don't you think that's a tad odd?
Neglect of many parts of the public realm under Cameron.
That's the main reason some of us liked the Cameron/Osborne administration!
Not everyone wants governments to be constantly tinkering, interfering and 'doing stuff'. The Coalition government was the closest thing to an actual 'tread lightly' administration that we've had in a long, long team.
But it never gets any traction because many people at heart want a form of Busybodying Authoritarianism, so long as it specifically suits them. The policy of 'at least two laws scrapped for every new law created' was a brilliant one, but there will always be people that want to create complicated, draconian legislation around the facilities available ar asylum seeker accommodation or the role of the police in countering transphobic language etc.
"AI risks triggering ‘catastrophic’ phone network blackouts Ofcom raises alarm over risks linked to use of automation technology for monitoring networks" (£)
There are two main concerns with AI. One is that it can be used to find bugs in the code that can be exploited by hostile states, terrorists or criminals. Last week, the US Government blocked the export (or any use by foreigners) of Anthropic's latest models on these grounds. Effectively, the US Government is treating these AI models as weapons and regulating them accordingly.
The other concern is about cock-ups rather than conspiracies. If AI is used in routine maintenance of networks and spots a fault, it might take actions to rectify the situation faster than any human could react, and thus keep the network up so no-one notices the problem. The fear is that AI might apply the wrong fix and crash the whole network. You may recall seeing examples from other industries where production databases have been deleted or millions of dollars of trading losses.
The latest Anthropic AI, “Mythos” or “Fable 5”, allegedly managed to crack a whole load of US defence systems within hours, which is what led to the export ban and the company pulling the model from production.
Incidentally, the fact that the US Government can block exports of and access to AI models shows how fatuous are British claims to AI leadership. As is our wont with frontier research, British academics are underfunded and British companies sold, including what is now Google Deep Mind. All the AI action is now in America and China.
Yup. A massive opportunity lost with the DeepMind sale, and a chance to cement a Brexit benefit outside the strangulating EU AI regulation.
The US now has most of the West over a barrel, at a time when most of them really don’t like the orange man in the white house.
Haven't you ever wondered why Trump is orange? Like why the hell does he smear his face with orange make-up? Don't you think that's a tad odd?
He’s been orange for a couple of decades at least. I suspect he suffers from vitiligo or other skin disorder after way too much time in the sun.
Russian milblogger reports a catastrophic situation in Crimea
- No electricity
- No water
- No fuel
Counts for nothing until
- No Russians
Call me optimistic (because I’m optimistic), but I reckon we’re about a week or two away from an evacuation of Crimea.
It may even end up with a UN humanitarian airlift operation of tens of thousands of people, Putin’s final humiliation.
As I have suggested, the head of the Russian garrison should be given sanctuary* in a European county and $100m to surrender. Which would have a suitable Medieval feel to it as an outcome.
In return the Ukrainians will provide the coaches to take the Russian garrison - but none of their weapons - out over the Kerch Bridge. Once the last coach has offloaded the troops - and any other Russians rethinking their decision to buy a cheap Crimean property - then the Russian explosives captured in Crimea will be detonated in a world-wide press event to bring down the Bridge. Which would be fittingly humiliating for Russians - and Putin especially.
(*always assuming he isn't persona;lly associated with war crimes).
The whole of the land bridge to Crimea would then become far more difficult for the Russians to sustain.
We could indeed see a dramatic shift in scenario by the end of the summer.
That could include Putin having nuked Kyiv.
The thing that all of the discussion about events in Russia neglected to consider is the attitude of China.
If China believes that a rapid Russian collapse in the war is contrary to their interests then they will act to increase their support for Russia to prevent such a collapse.
And it's certainly not in China's interest for Russia to use a nuclear weapon in support of a failed aggressive war of conquest by a nuclear power against a non-nuclear power. Such an act would likely trigger Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to acquire nuclear deterrents as quickly as possible.
I feel sad for Starmer but not sad to see him go. He's obviously a decent and hard working man. But he is hamstrung by a lack of political vision and an inability to project warmth. In other words, he is in many respects a bad politician. Maybe he will be one of those PMs that we learn to love more after he leaves office, like John Major (another non Oxford lower middle class striver who the press took against). IMHO despite his obvious flaws he was probably the best Labour leader since Blair. Who knows, maybe we will miss him.
The press didn’t really take against Major. They took against the then Conservative Parliamentary party along with the voters.
IIRC Major personally outpolled the party, consistently.
Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end
I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.
And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.
I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.
If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.
Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!
The other factor playing against Putin, which you won't say so I will, is that there is another reason time is not in his favour.
The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.
Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.
Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.
If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.
I think its even more remarkable than that. They have survived their betrayal by Trump and the restriction of material from the USA by some additional support from Europe (including us) but mainly by their astonishing innovation and ingenuity.
They were restricted for years because any long range weapons they were supplied (including our storm shadows) came with conditions that they were not to be used on Russian soil. So they built their own. They did not get enough anti-drone and air defences, so they built their own and now they are world leading in the field. They didn't get enough tanks to take on the massed ranks from Russia so they made them irrelevant and frankly suicidal to be in. They have far fewer men and they are increasingly making that irrelevant too as drones fight their battles with barely a human in sight. They have printed their own cards.
They are now clearly winning a war against what was supposed to have been a superpower. The price that they have paid for this and continue to pay is very high but what a people! What a country! What a leader!
JD Vance was very proud that he had fucked over Ukraine like a cheap DFS sofa.
The European support for Ukraine is a direct "fuck you!" back at Vance.
Things could move very fast in Moscow. You have to wonder how British politcs - especially on the right/far right - would be impacted by the lack of the Putin-fed bot farms on social media.
I personally will be very surprised if Putin is alive, let alone in charge, by the end of this year. Its one of the things that makes me hesitate about our defence panic. The major threat is on the road to complete collapse and regime change. We are getting far, far more out of the £3bn we spend on Ukraine's defence than the £60bn we spend on our own.
"Ding Dong, The Tsar is Dead" might be Burnham's earliet biggest win if the Russian threat - and the need to fund defence - goes away.
He could have quite a lot more money to play with over the next few yars without tax rises.
It's quite something that in just two years Labour's gone from "let's learn the lessons from Tory misrule" to "we'll give our Boris a go". I can only assume that this is because the Labour parliamentary party is full of backbenchers who are wet behind the ears, easily frightened, and politically inept. God help us.
Good point, and there is an element of that. According the the Google AI[1], in the 2024 election there were 335 Members of Parliament (MPs) in the House of Commons who were newly elected to their positions, representing over half of the 650 total seats, and three new ones were elected in 2026.
The House is full of newbies who don't know what Parliament is *for* , and the "socialworkerisation" - to coin a phrase - of this cohort, who see themselves as ambassadors to Parliament to carry out their constituency's wishes instead of representatives who carry out their own judgement, breaks Parliament. The Burkean formulation of Parliament isn't working and they don't get that.
So yes: nobody's flying the plane and the passengers are panicking.
I couldn't care less how nice Burnham is. It's Labour's rubbish policies which are the problem. If Burnham keeps on with the digital ID/VPN banning and jury trial nonsense, for instance, there's no point changing leader.
I think I agree with you on most of those issues but they are not, frankly, where the success or failure of Burnham's administration is going to be determined. When Reeves was appointed she claimed she was going to be focused like a laser on growth but then introduced a whole range of policies that were inimical to growth, employment and investment in the UK. That is what needs to change.
My understanding, and it is pretty vague on the details to be honest, is that in Manchester Burnham has at the very least not got in the way of growth and seems to have been a benign influence. That is what we need from him, a government that is joined up enough to recognise that making it more expensive to employ people costs jobs (duh), that we need to exploit our own resources in the North Sea, that we need to use our tax system to encourage investment in the UK, that makes sure (as I believe he did) that there is good coordination between our educational establishments and growing businesses, that makes London a better place to float businesses, that our transportation system actually facilitates getting people to work, that houses actually get built, I could go on most of the afternoon.
If Burnham delivers on even some of this I would be delighted for the country and I would expect him to get a second term. If he spends his time on culture wars and social issues he will do almost as badly as Starmer has.
The strange thing is to back a man who supports Russia, in Trump. That's a very odd thing for a "pro Ukraine" person to do.
But some people just cannot see how crap Trump is I suppose.
Sandpit has far more reason to be invested in supporting Ukraine than anyone else here. He regularly posts about Russian defeats too. But it’s a PB purity test. Like the time Jessop harassed him of the sites for lack of purity.
It’s pathetic
Or it's a simple disagreement over the nature of Trump.
I feel sad for Starmer but not sad to see him go. He's obviously a decent and hard working man. But he is hamstrung by a lack of political vision and an inability to project warmth. In other words, he is in many respects a bad politician. Maybe he will be one of those PMs that we learn to love more after he leaves office, like John Major (another non Oxford lower middle class striver who the press took against). IMHO despite his obvious flaws he was probably the best Labour leader since Blair. Who knows, maybe we will miss him.
Ultimately Starmer was bad at being PM.
As to his ranking among post-Blair Labour leaders, I think I would probably disagree, but it is arguable, and I think that points more to the weakness of the competition than to any degree of competence by Starmer.
"AI risks triggering ‘catastrophic’ phone network blackouts Ofcom raises alarm over risks linked to use of automation technology for monitoring networks" (£)
There are two main concerns with AI. One is that it can be used to find bugs in the code that can be exploited by hostile states, terrorists or criminals. Last week, the US Government blocked the export (or any use by foreigners) of Anthropic's latest models on these grounds. Effectively, the US Government is treating these AI models as weapons and regulating them accordingly.
The other concern is about cock-ups rather than conspiracies. If AI is used in routine maintenance of networks and spots a fault, it might take actions to rectify the situation faster than any human could react, and thus keep the network up so no-one notices the problem. The fear is that AI might apply the wrong fix and crash the whole network. You may recall seeing examples from other industries where production databases have been deleted or millions of dollars of trading losses.
The latest Anthropic AI, “Mythos” or “Fable 5”, allegedly managed to crack a whole load of US defence systems within hours, which is what led to the export ban and the company pulling the model from production.
Incidentally, the fact that the US Government can block exports of and access to AI models shows how fatuous are British claims to AI leadership. As is our wont with frontier research, British academics are underfunded and British companies sold, including what is now Google Deep Mind. All the AI action is now in America and China.
Yup. A massive opportunity lost with the DeepMind sale, and a chance to cement a Brexit benefit outside the strangulating EU AI regulation.
The US now has most of the West over a barrel, at a time when most of them really don’t like the orange man in the white house.
Haven't you ever wondered why Trump is orange? Like why the hell does he smear his face with orange make-up? Don't you think that's a tad odd?
I couldn't care less how nice Burnham is. It's Labour's rubbish policies which are the problem. If Burnham keeps on with the digital ID/VPN banning and jury trial nonsense, for instance, there's no point changing leader.
Yet Labour supporters think it’s the presentation not the policies
I’m favour of removing the right to jury trial for MPs. As an experiment.
Digital ID can be tried for access to Parliament - with politicos entire life story* accessible to anyone using the system, without check or logs.
*the New Labour era attempt at ID included a special, secure database for important people. Such as politicians.
Neglect of many parts of the public realm under Cameron.
That's the main reason some of us liked the Cameron/Osborne administration!
Not everyone wants governments to be constantly tinkering, interfering and 'doing stuff'. The Coalition government was the closest thing to an actual 'tread lightly' administration that we've had in a long, long team.
But it never gets any traction because many people at heart want a form of Busybodying Authoritarianism, so long as it specifically suits them. The policy of 'at least two laws scrapped for every new law created' was a brilliant one, but there will always be people that want to create complicated, draconian legislation around the facilities available ar asylum seeker accommodation or the role of the police in countering transphobic language etc.
Ok but they were devious and cowardly. They starved local government of funds and under the radar areas like the criminal justice system. We see the effects now. It wasn't some principled drive towards a smaller state.
"Congratulations, Mr. Burnham. The good news is you are the new Prime Minister! The bad news is there's some facile orange twat in a seat of some considerable power in America you have to deal with".
It's quite something that in just two years Labour's gone from "let's learn the lessons from Tory misrule" to "we'll give our Boris a go". I can only assume that this is because the Labour parliamentary party is full of backbenchers who are wet behind the ears, easily frightened, and politically inept. God help us.
Good point, and there is an element of that. According the the Google AI[1], in the 2024 election there were 335 Members of Parliament (MPs) in the House of Commons who were newly elected to their positions, representing over half of the 650 total seats, and three new ones were elected in 2026.
The House is full of newbies who don't know what Parliament is *for* , and the "socialworkerisation" - to coin a phrase - of this cohort, who see themselves as ambassadors to Parliament to carry out their constituency's wishes instead of representatives who carry out their own judgement, breaks Parliament. The Burkean formulation of Parliament isn't working and they don't get that.
So yes: nobody's flying the plane and the passengers are panicking.
Edmund Burke argued that Members of Parliament are "trustees" rather than "delegates". In his famous 1774 Speech to the Electors of Bristol, he asserted that an MP owes their constituents not just hard work, but their unbiased judgment and conscience. He contended that sacrificing this independent reason to public opinion betrays the representative role.
Key Pillars of Burke's Theory
Trustee Model: Representatives are elected to exercise their mature, enlightened judgment for the national good, rather than blindly following the immediate, localized demands of voters.
National Interest: Burke stated that Parliament is not a "congress of ambassadors from different and hostile interests". Instead, it is a deliberative assembly where all MPs work for the interest of the whole nation.
Accountability via Elections: While an MP should listen to and respect the opinions of their constituents, they are not bound by them. The ultimate accountability to voters comes at the next general election.
"Congratulations, Mr. Burnham. The good news is you are the new Prime Minister! The bad news is there's some facile orange twat in a seat of some considerable power in America you have to deal with".
I wouldn't be surprised if Burnham has Trump eating out of his hand à la Mamdani.
Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end
I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.
And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.
I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.
If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.
Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!
The other factor playing against Putin, which you won't say so I will, is that there is another reason time is not in his favour.
The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.
Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.
Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.
If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.
I think its even more remarkable than that. They have survived their betrayal by Trump and the restriction of material from the USA by some additional support from Europe (including us) but mainly by their astonishing innovation and ingenuity.
They were restricted for years because any long range weapons they were supplied (including our storm shadows) came with conditions that they were not to be used on Russian soil. So they built their own. They did not get enough anti-drone and air defences, so they built their own and now they are world leading in the field. They didn't get enough tanks to take on the massed ranks from Russia so they made them irrelevant and frankly suicidal to be in. They have far fewer men and they are increasingly making that irrelevant too as drones fight their battles with barely a human in sight. They have printed their own cards.
They are now clearly winning a war against what was supposed to have been a superpower. The price that they have paid for this and continue to pay is very high but what a people! What a country! What a leader!
JD Vance was very proud that he had fucked over Ukraine like a cheap DFS sofa.
The European support for Ukraine is a direct "fuck you!" back at Vance.
Things could move very fast in Moscow. You have to wonder how British politcs - especially on the right/far right - would be impacted by the lack of the Putin-fed bot farms on social media.
I personally will be very surprised if Putin is alive, let alone in charge, by the end of this year. Its one of the things that makes me hesitate about our defence panic. The major threat is on the road to complete collapse and regime change. We are getting far, far more out of the £3bn we spend on Ukraine's defence than the £60bn we spend on our own.
"Ding Dong, The Tsar is Dead" might be Burnham's earliet biggest win if the Russian threat - and the need to fund defence - goes away.
He could have quite a lot more money to play with over the next few yars without tax rises.
Well, that depends on what happens next. The situation may well be incredibly unstable and we still need to cut our dependencies on the USA who are no longer a reliable ally. I wouldn't be spending that money just yet.
"AI risks triggering ‘catastrophic’ phone network blackouts Ofcom raises alarm over risks linked to use of automation technology for monitoring networks" (£)
There are two main concerns with AI. One is that it can be used to find bugs in the code that can be exploited by hostile states, terrorists or criminals. Last week, the US Government blocked the export (or any use by foreigners) of Anthropic's latest models on these grounds. Effectively, the US Government is treating these AI models as weapons and regulating them accordingly.
The other concern is about cock-ups rather than conspiracies. If AI is used in routine maintenance of networks and spots a fault, it might take actions to rectify the situation faster than any human could react, and thus keep the network up so no-one notices the problem. The fear is that AI might apply the wrong fix and crash the whole network. You may recall seeing examples from other industries where production databases have been deleted or millions of dollars of trading losses.
The latest Anthropic AI, “Mythos” or “Fable 5”, allegedly managed to crack a whole load of US defence systems within hours, which is what led to the export ban and the company pulling the model from production.
Incidentally, the fact that the US Government can block exports of and access to AI models shows how fatuous are British claims to AI leadership. As is our wont with frontier research, British academics are underfunded and British companies sold, including what is now Google Deep Mind. All the AI action is now in America and China.
Yup. A massive opportunity lost with the DeepMind sale, and a chance to cement a Brexit benefit outside the strangulating EU AI regulation.
The US now has most of the West over a barrel, at a time when most of them really don’t like the orange man in the white house.
Haven't you ever wondered why Trump is orange? Like why the hell does he smear his face with orange make-up? Don't you think that's a tad odd?
He’s been orange for a couple of decades at least. I suspect he suffers from vitiligo or other skin disorder after way too much time in the sun.
So it’s not because he’s a vain, old fool in a deluded pursuit of eternal youth? Phew!
"AI risks triggering ‘catastrophic’ phone network blackouts Ofcom raises alarm over risks linked to use of automation technology for monitoring networks" (£)
There are two main concerns with AI. One is that it can be used to find bugs in the code that can be exploited by hostile states, terrorists or criminals. Last week, the US Government blocked the export (or any use by foreigners) of Anthropic's latest models on these grounds. Effectively, the US Government is treating these AI models as weapons and regulating them accordingly.
The other concern is about cock-ups rather than conspiracies. If AI is used in routine maintenance of networks and spots a fault, it might take actions to rectify the situation faster than any human could react, and thus keep the network up so no-one notices the problem. The fear is that AI might apply the wrong fix and crash the whole network. You may recall seeing examples from other industries where production databases have been deleted or millions of dollars of trading losses.
The latest Anthropic AI, “Mythos” or “Fable 5”, allegedly managed to crack a whole load of US defence systems within hours, which is what led to the export ban and the company pulling the model from production.
Incidentally, the fact that the US Government can block exports of and access to AI models shows how fatuous are British claims to AI leadership. As is our wont with frontier research, British academics are underfunded and British companies sold, including what is now Google Deep Mind. All the AI action is now in America and China.
Yup. A massive opportunity lost with the DeepMind sale, and a chance to cement a Brexit benefit outside the strangulating EU AI regulation.
The US now has most of the West over a barrel, at a time when most of them really don’t like the orange man in the white house.
Haven't you ever wondered why Trump is orange? Like why the hell does he smear his face with orange make-up? Don't you think that's a tad odd?
He’s been orange for a couple of decades at least. I suspect he suffers from vitiligo or other skin disorder after way too much time in the sun.
So it’s not because he’s a vain, old fool in a deluded pursuit of eternal youth? Phew!
You never see Trump and the Tango man in the same room, is all I'm saying.
Comments
Kemi can position all she likes but who in their right mid trusts those in her party. The Conservatives lack credibility.
Instead she is putting party before country and trying to leave us stuck with a permanent left wing government.
The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.
Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.
Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.
If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.
But some people just cannot see how crap Trump is I suppose.
As for your counterfactuals, you can claim that - equally I could say (and frequently did during Sunak's tenure) that the economic impact of a fully implemented minibudget would have been a significant boost to the economy and a general feeling that the country had turned a corner. But the reality is that neither of us know, we only know what did happen, which is what I've outlined above.
Is Le Pen more like Orban or Meloni when it comes to Ukraine v Russia?
Ukraine has now gone and made their own long-range weapons, and are taking the fight to Moscow directly. The US, under both presidents, has been unwilling to let American weapons be fired into Russia.
There’s also been continual US support for Ukraine in terms of intelligence, which Trump will play down to his sceptical home audience but is still very much happening. Also the Starlink situation, where Ukraine has it and Russia doesn’t, was a huge change.
The readout from the G7 this week is that Trump now knows Putin has been lying to him, and Russia doesn’t want to make peace but instead wage war.
- threatening to split off Openreach from BT Group, forcing them to become FTTP first and then to pursue one of the fastest FTTP rollouts in history, aiming for 99% of all homes when the original ambition was a pathetic 10-20%; and
- stopping Jeremy Corbyn from becoming PM.
Shit happens and you get over it.
Can Andy Burnham get into Downing Street? Not without the help of a policeman it would seem...
I was digging through BBC's archives and found this gem from 2007
https://x.com/shashj/status/2068356203659280831
Never forgave Zelensky for standing up to him in Kyiv and refusing to sign away Ukraine’s mineral rights. According to our correspondent who saw Bessent, immediately afterwards, he was trembling after meeting Zelensky
https://x.com/gideonrachman/status/2068637907670241459
Is there a single normal person in the Trump administration ?
The French far right has had to recalibrate its Trump adjacency too. The same political calculation playing out across the continent.
Brave call.
They were restricted for years because any long range weapons they were supplied (including our storm shadows) came with conditions that they were not to be used on Russian soil. So they built their own. They did not get enough anti-drone and air defences, so they built their own and now they are world leading in the field. They didn't get enough tanks to take on the massed ranks from Russia so they made them irrelevant and frankly suicidal to be in. They have far fewer men and they are increasingly making that irrelevant too as drones fight their battles with barely a human in sight. They have printed their own cards.
They are now clearly winning a war against what was supposed to have been a superpower. The price that they have paid for this and continue to pay is very high but what a people! What a country! What a leader!
https://x.com/kylejglen/status/2068675095669641635.
Whichever side/bloc is less divided, or more efficiently divided, wins.
Because of that, Kemi and Nigel need an understanding. But because they're both divas, and Nigel is toxic to many, they can't come to an understanding.
Everything else is noise.
- No electricity
- No water
- No fuel
Counts for nothing until
- No Russians
Also, it's really weird that you are citing this polling figure of 18% for Sunak. What did the Tories poll at GE2024?
Also, just for a bit of fun, what were the swings against Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss personally in their individual constituencies at GE2024?
What might a reasonable person conclude about the relative popularity of the two Tory Prime Ministers?
Add them up when the election has happened, you have a powerful coalition representing the majority of the electorate.
It’s pathetic
It may even end up with a UN humanitarian airlift operation of tens of thousands of people, Putin’s final humiliation.
The European support for Ukraine is a direct "fuck you!" back at Vance.
Things could move very fast in Moscow. You have to wonder how British politcs - especially on the right/far right - would be impacted by the lack of the Putin-fed bot farms on social media.
Its felt for a while that the heaviest foreign thumb on the scale of our domestic social media commentary has been American.
There’s an opportunity for the UN, Red Cross, and other international charities to help out here, start talking next week about the lack of water and electricity across Crimea…
And Nigel and Kemi are both divas.
In return the Ukrainians will provide the coaches to take the Russian garrison - but none of their weapons - out over the Kerch Bridge. Once the last coach has offloaded the troops - and any other Russians rethinking their decision to buy a cheap Crimean property - then the Russian explosives captured in Crimea will be detonated in a world-wide press event to bring down the Bridge. Which would be fittingly humiliating for Russians - and Putin especially.
(*always assuming he isn't persona;lly associated with war crimes).
The whole of the land bridge to Crimea would then become far more difficult for the Russians to sustain.
We could indeed see a dramatic shift in scenario by the end of the summer.
That could include Putin having nuked Kyiv.
That's the main reason some of us liked the Cameron/Osborne administration!
Not everyone wants governments to be constantly tinkering, interfering and 'doing stuff'. The Coalition government was the closest thing to an actual 'tread lightly' administration that we've had in a long, long team.
But it never gets any traction because many people at heart want a form of Busybodying Authoritarianism, so long as it specifically suits them. The policy of 'at least two laws scrapped for every new law created' was a brilliant one, but there will always be people that want to create complicated, draconian legislation around the facilities available ar asylum seeker accommodation or the role of the police in countering transphobic language etc.
If China believes that a rapid Russian collapse in the war is contrary to their interests then they will act to increase their support for Russia to prevent such a collapse.
And it's certainly not in China's interest for Russia to use a nuclear weapon in support of a failed aggressive war of conquest by a nuclear power against a non-nuclear power. Such an act would likely trigger Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to acquire nuclear deterrents as quickly as possible.
BREAKING
Donald Trump says Keir Starmer 'will resign as prime minister of the United Kingdom'
He says that he has 'failed badly' on immigration and energy, particularly on the North Sea
He signs off: 'I wish him well'
https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2068698674310398119?s=46
IIRC Major personally outpolled the party, consistently.
Local hostelries starting to promote their Christmas dinners.
He could have quite a lot more money to play with over the next few yars without tax rises.
In response to Trump's post, No 10 has pointed Politics UK to Starmer's "will not walk away" comments on Friday, which "still stand"
The House is full of newbies who don't know what Parliament is *for* , and the "socialworkerisation" - to coin a phrase - of this cohort, who see themselves as ambassadors to Parliament to carry out their constituency's wishes instead of representatives who carry out their own judgement, breaks Parliament. The Burkean formulation of Parliament isn't working and they don't get that.
So yes: nobody's flying the plane and the passengers are panicking.
[1] see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_MPs_elected_in_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#MPs_defeated_and_elected and https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/know-2024-cohort-mps and
My understanding, and it is pretty vague on the details to be honest, is that in Manchester Burnham has at the very least not got in the way of growth and seems to have been a benign influence. That is what we need from him, a government that is joined up enough to recognise that making it more expensive to employ people costs jobs (duh), that we need to exploit our own resources in the North Sea, that we need to use our tax system to encourage investment in the UK, that makes sure (as I believe he did) that there is good coordination between our educational establishments and growing businesses, that makes London a better place to float businesses, that our transportation system actually facilitates getting people to work, that houses actually get built, I could go on most of the afternoon.
If Burnham delivers on even some of this I would be delighted for the country and I would expect him to get a second term. If he spends his time on culture wars and social issues he will do almost as badly as Starmer has.
As to his ranking among post-Blair Labour leaders, I think I would probably disagree, but it is arguable, and I think that points more to the weakness of the competition than to any degree of competence by Starmer.
Digital ID can be tried for access to Parliament - with politicos entire life story* accessible to anyone using the system, without check or logs.
*the New Labour era attempt at ID included a special, secure database for important people. Such as politicians.
https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2026-06-21
Bloody hell 🥵
Edmund Burke argued that Members of Parliament are "trustees" rather than "delegates". In his famous 1774 Speech to the Electors of Bristol, he asserted that an MP owes their constituents not just hard work, but their unbiased judgment and conscience. He contended that sacrificing this independent reason to public opinion betrays the representative role.
Key Pillars of Burke's Theory
- Trustee Model: Representatives are elected to exercise their mature, enlightened judgment for the national good, rather than blindly following the immediate, localized demands of voters.
- National Interest: Burke stated that Parliament is not a "congress of ambassadors from different and hostile interests". Instead, it is a deliberative assembly where all MPs work for the interest of the whole nation.
- Accountability via Elections: While an MP should listen to and respect the opinions of their constituents, they are not bound by them. The ultimate accountability to voters comes at the next general election.
Further readingThen the policies will come into play.
Ditching the ban on North Sea oil will be a good and popular U-turn. Then it’s onto allowing all sensible development via PD.