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By every metric Burnham leads Starmer – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,206
edited 9:58AM in General
By every metric Burnham leads Starmer – politicalbetting.com

There’s enough evidence that the voters see Andy Burnham is a clear improvement on Sir Keir Starmer so I’d expect some of that to translate into an increase in Labour’s share of the vote.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,089
    Not in our hearts.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,148
    Further evidence of drug dependency in this country. 36% think its clear what Ed Davey stands for? What are they taking?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,981
    Following my tip on Côte d'Ivoire yesterday today I am backing Saudi Arabia to beat Spain.

    You can get 27s on Betfair, my logic is that Spain were rubbish against Cape Verde.

    The Saudis beat Argentina (the eventual winners) during the last world cup.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,603

    Following my tip on Côte d'Ivoire yesterday today I am backing Saudi Arabia to beat Spain.

    You can get 27s on Betfair, my logic is that Spain were rubbish against Cape Verde.

    The Saudis beat Argentina (the eventual winners) during the last world cup.

    I'll put all of my winnings from the Côte d'Ivoire bet onto KSA then...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,603
    IT is clear what Burnham stands for: Himself
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,981

    Following my tip on Côte d'Ivoire yesterday today I am backing Saudi Arabia to beat Spain.

    You can get 27s on Betfair, my logic is that Spain were rubbish against Cape Verde.

    The Saudis beat Argentina (the eventual winners) during the last world cup.

    I'll put all of my winnings from the Côte d'Ivoire bet onto KSA then...
    You didn't trade out when Côte d'Ivoire were leading?

    Sad
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,587
    DavidL said:

    Further evidence of drug dependency in this country. 36% think its clear what Ed Davey stands for? What are they taking?

    Nimby, Waspi and cutting fuel duty.

    No drugs needed.
  • Burnham’s Labour will lead a poll by the end of this year.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,981
    This could be over by the first drinks break.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,089
    When pushed most fold quickly. In sport as in politics.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,981
    Ben Stokes and Gus Atkinson have been withdrawn from their County Championship fixtures in the clearest indication yet they will be available to play for England in the third Test against New Zealand.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/c5yz7wdwgw2o
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,434

    Burnham’s Labour will lead a poll by the end of this year.

    I think there will be an immediate Burnham bounce, which could translate to a poll lead with one of the more Labour-favourable pollsters.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,981
    edited 10:21AM
    Thoughts and prayers for the BBC if Sir Keir Starmer announces his resignation around 8pm on Tuesday.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,150
    kle4 said:

    Does anyone still think there won’t be a coronation?

    I can imagine Al Carns, and a candidate for the Socialist Campaign Group, trying and failing to gain enough nominations to stand.

    Does that count as a contest or a coronation?

    I'd count that as a contest, but one where the other contenders failed at an early stage.
    I'd call it a coronation as the contest never formally launched. It's just not a happy for all coronation.
    i think it will be a coronation some time between 8th July and 22nd July.
    Possibly 17th July, the last day before the summer recess.
    The NATO summit is on 8th July in Ankara and Burnham won't want to attend that with defence fiasco unresolved.
    But he may want to attend the EU summit in Brussels on 22nd July to make friends.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,089

    IT is clear what Burnham stands for: Himself

    Make Great Britain Burnham Again!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,981
    England collapsing like the French in May 1940.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,089
    Root - great batsmen, bad captain.

    (Bit harsh, the players just not there)
  • Starmer exit into 8.6 at Smarkets on the lay.

    £38 or so profit on the £10 original isn’t bad. Have to put down a lot of liability to achieve the gain
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,536

    Burnham’s Labour will lead a poll by the end of this year.

    I think there will be an immediate Burnham bounce, which could translate to a poll lead with one of the more Labour-favourable pollsters.
    The most recent YouGov had Labour only 5pp behind (though comparing with other YouGov polls in the last month they is likely to be a slight outlier in Labour's favour). It's definitely within range for a temporary bounce to put Labour ahead.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,981
    kle4 said:

    Root - great batsmen, bad captain.

    (Bit harsh, the players just not there)

    It's not harsh, I said he's the anti Mike Brearley.

    It's not harsh to say that he overbowled Jofra Archer, to the detriment of his career.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,091

    IT is clear what Burnham stands for: Himself

    Are you okay hun
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 48,038
    Jesus, Mary and Joseph and the wee donkey!

    https://x.com/RobDunsmore/status/2068640122925445252?s=20
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,603
    I want a Starmer v Burnham contest so that I get the chance to draw a cock and balls on my ballot paper.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,089

    Jesus, Mary and Joseph and the wee donkey!

    https://x.com/RobDunsmore/status/2068640122925445252?s=20

    Who pitched that show idea?!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,178
    Burnham clearly leads Starmer personality wise and in terms of personal approval. However the evidence is he squeezes LD and Green voters more than Conservative and Reform voters. He is also offering a shift left of Starmer on tax and spend and nationalisations and Kemi will be hoping she can win back centrist swing voters who voted for Starmer in 2024 having voted Conservative since Blair while Lowe squeezes the Reform vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,584
    Today's hot offering from Rawnsley, obviously on topic:

    It would be unwise to leap to the assumption that the King In The North will now sweep southwards to effortlessly seize the crown jewels of Downing Street.

    For his devotees, this was a “proof-of-concept” byelection. Get on with it and put the messiah of Manchester in Downing Street. That will be the siren song of the Burnhamites. [But] Bar superglueing the front door of Number 10, the incumbent has done everything he can to indicate that he will only be dragged out of the building by his fingernails.

    Sir Keir has already suggested that, if there is to be a contest for the top job, the battle should not be joined before the people of Greater Manchester have decided who will be their next mayor in the byelection for the vacancy which will now ensue. That can’t be resolved before the very end of July, which is surely one of the reasons for making this suggestion. Sir Keir buys himself more time at Number 10 while increasing the chance that some of the shine will come off his rival as Mr Burnham is subject to elevated scrutiny.

    This presents Team Andy with a dilemma. Press on with a near-immediate challenge for Number 10 and his enemies will portray him as a man who is entirely self-centred and too consumed by personal ambition to care what happens to the city he was running five minutes ago.

    Camp Burnham would much prefer Sir Keir to agree to set a departure date. It is widely believed that Mr Burnham will urge the prime minister to take this course when they have what will surely be an excruciatingly awkward conversation with each other. Quite a lot of the cabinet favour this way forward. If he continues to spurn that advice, the test...will be whether they are prepared to resign from the government, with all the chaos that would entail, to attempt to bend him to their will. Others in the cabinet fume in opposition to the idea that Mr Burnham should be simply gifted the top job without a proper contest.

    [Makerfield voters] have propelled Andy Burnham in the direction of Number 10, but that is not in itself enough to get him over the threshold. What happens next will depend on the feverish calculations made down in Westminster by the most senior politicians in the land.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,801
    Who will collapse first? England, or Starmer?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,598
    What a chart, the scale perfectly picked to disguise how objectively low Burnham's ratings are.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,888

    Who will collapse first? England, or Starmer?

    Looks like Starmer will hang on longer than England

    A few more minutes should be enough!
  • eekeek Posts: 34,119
    IanB2 said:

    Today's hot offering from Rawnsley, obviously on topic:

    It would be unwise to leap to the assumption that the King In The North will now sweep southwards to effortlessly seize the crown jewels of Downing Street.

    For his devotees, this was a “proof-of-concept” byelection. Get on with it and put the messiah of Manchester in Downing Street. That will be the siren song of the Burnhamites. [But] Bar superglueing the front door of Number 10, the incumbent has done everything he can to indicate that he will only be dragged out of the building by his fingernails.

    Sir Keir has already suggested that, if there is to be a contest for the top job, the battle should not be joined before the people of Greater Manchester have decided who will be their next mayor in the byelection for the vacancy which will now ensue. That can’t be resolved before the very end of July, which is surely one of the reasons for making this suggestion. Sir Keir buys himself more time at Number 10 while increasing the chance that some of the shine will come off his rival as Mr Burnham is subject to elevated scrutiny.

    This presents Team Andy with a dilemma. Press on with a near-immediate challenge for Number 10 and his enemies will portray him as a man who is entirely self-centred and too consumed by personal ambition to care what happens to the city he was running five minutes ago.

    Camp Burnham would much prefer Sir Keir to agree to set a departure date. It is widely believed that Mr Burnham will urge the prime minister to take this course when they have what will surely be an excruciatingly awkward conversation with each other. Quite a lot of the cabinet favour this way forward. If he continues to spurn that advice, the test...will be whether they are prepared to resign from the government, with all the chaos that would entail, to attempt to bend him to their will. Others in the cabinet fume in opposition to the idea that Mr Burnham should be simply gifted the top job without a proper contest.

    [Makerfield voters] have propelled Andy Burnham in the direction of Number 10, but that is not in itself enough to get him over the threshold. What happens next will depend on the feverish calculations made down in Westminster by the most senior politicians in the land.

    If Labour want to win the Mayoral election - they can't have SKS leading the campaign - they need Burnham sat in No 10..
  • PeterCairnsPeterCairns Posts: 184
    Driver said:

    What a chart, the scale perfectly picked to disguise how objectively low Burnham's ratings are.

    You don’t have to be faster than the Bear, just faster than the next guy!

    Peter.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,457

    kle4 said:

    Root - great batsmen, bad captain.

    (Bit harsh, the players just not there)

    It's not harsh, I said he's the anti Mike Brearley.

    It's not harsh to say that he overbowled Jofra Archer, to the detriment of his career.
    Any great team has a majority number of players who are Captains. On and Off the field.

    May be time to have no formal Captain just a team of tossers on any given 1st morning
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,946

    Who will collapse first? England, or Starmer?

    I reckon Starmer makes it to lunch, so England to go first.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,091
    HYUFD said:
    Yeah right
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,981
    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,089
    HYUFD said:
    A formal deal? Maybe. Informal? Of course they would.

    It's sensible though - Reform mock Tories who beg for a deal, so they have to reciprocate for dignity's sake.
  • Driver said:

    What a chart, the scale perfectly picked to disguise how objectively low Burnham's ratings are.

    You don’t have to be faster than the Bear, just faster than the next guy!

    Peter.
    You’re a bear?
  • HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Everyone with a pulse knows she won’t turn that down
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,140

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,536

    Who will collapse first? England, or Starmer?

    Starmer has already collapsed, but we don't get to see inside his political coffin until Monday.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,089

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    She can't without losing support. Didn't she suspend a group for cutting a deal to keep out Reform?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,299
    IanB2 said:

    Today's hot offering from Rawnsley, obviously on topic:

    Rawnsley, to be fair, hasn’t been “hot” since the dying days of the Brown administration. He clearly had no contacts among the Tories from 2010, and by the time Labour returned to power, he was well past his sell-by date. The strong rumour is that one of the reasons the Guardian was so keen to jettison the Observer is that it got them out of a lot of expensive contracts for star writers whose stars had waned.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,981

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    No it’s not.

    There’s other options.

    Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,536

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    Badenoch's problem is not her answer, but that the question is being asked, and it is being asked repeatedly, drowning out anything else she might want to say.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,150
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Today's hot offering from Rawnsley, obviously on topic:

    It would be unwise to leap to the assumption that the King In The North will now sweep southwards to effortlessly seize the crown jewels of Downing Street.

    For his devotees, this was a “proof-of-concept” byelection. Get on with it and put the messiah of Manchester in Downing Street. That will be the siren song of the Burnhamites. [But] Bar superglueing the front door of Number 10, the incumbent has done everything he can to indicate that he will only be dragged out of the building by his fingernails.

    Sir Keir has already suggested that, if there is to be a contest for the top job, the battle should not be joined before the people of Greater Manchester have decided who will be their next mayor in the byelection for the vacancy which will now ensue. That can’t be resolved before the very end of July, which is surely one of the reasons for making this suggestion. Sir Keir buys himself more time at Number 10 while increasing the chance that some of the shine will come off his rival as Mr Burnham is subject to elevated scrutiny.

    This presents Team Andy with a dilemma. Press on with a near-immediate challenge for Number 10 and his enemies will portray him as a man who is entirely self-centred and too consumed by personal ambition to care what happens to the city he was running five minutes ago.

    Camp Burnham would much prefer Sir Keir to agree to set a departure date. It is widely believed that Mr Burnham will urge the prime minister to take this course when they have what will surely be an excruciatingly awkward conversation with each other. Quite a lot of the cabinet favour this way forward. If he continues to spurn that advice, the test...will be whether they are prepared to resign from the government, with all the chaos that would entail, to attempt to bend him to their will. Others in the cabinet fume in opposition to the idea that Mr Burnham should be simply gifted the top job without a proper contest.

    [Makerfield voters] have propelled Andy Burnham in the direction of Number 10, but that is not in itself enough to get him over the threshold. What happens next will depend on the feverish calculations made down in Westminster by the most senior politicians in the land.

    If Labour want to win the Mayoral election - they can't have SKS leading the campaign - they need Burnham sat in No 10..
    The Manchester by election for Mayor is on Thursday 30th July.

    So I stick with my forecast that Burnham will become PM on Thursday 17th July, the day before recess.

    This allows Burnham to campaign in the Manchester by election as PM with no parliamentary business to distract him. The only date in his diary will be the EU Summit in Brussels on 22nd July.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,981
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    She can't without losing support. Didn't she suspend a group for cutting a deal to keep out Reform?
    That was more putting the Greens in power.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,946
    Ukraine bombed Kerch in Crimea last night. They took out a ferry, port infrastructure, oil storage facilities, and up to four air defence systems set up to protect the bridge.

    https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/2068618368089731241
    https://x.com/grandparoy2/status/2068568433609072928

    I wonder what might happen next…?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,230
    Burnham leads Starmer on “is an experienced leader”, which is clearly nonsense given their respective CVs. Which shows you how much vibes matter.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,154
    edited 10:56AM

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    I remember reading that David Bowie would write a lyric after cutting out words from the Daily Mail and throwing them in the air, and the order in which the words landed formed the lyric. Is that what you did with this post?

    @williamglenn (Telegraph obvs)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,981

    Burnham leads Starmer on “is an experienced leader”, which is clearly nonsense given their respective CVs. Which shows you how much vibes matter.

    Burnham’s been leader of Greater Manchester for a lot longer than Starmer has been Labour leader.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 9,044
    kle4 said:

    Jesus, Mary and Joseph and the wee donkey!

    https://x.com/RobDunsmore/status/2068640122925445252?s=20

    Who pitched that show idea?!
    Alan Partridge.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,584

    IanB2 said:

    Today's hot offering from Rawnsley, obviously on topic:

    Rawnsley, to be fair, hasn’t been “hot” since the dying days of the Brown administration. He clearly had no contacts among the Tories from 2010, and by the time Labour returned to power, he was well past his sell-by date. The strong rumour is that one of the reasons the Guardian was so keen to jettison the Observer is that it got them out of a lot of expensive contracts for star writers whose stars had waned.
    TBF my reference was intended to be to the air temp
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,946
    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Today's hot offering from Rawnsley, obviously on topic:

    It would be unwise to leap to the assumption that the King In The North will now sweep southwards to effortlessly seize the crown jewels of Downing Street.

    For his devotees, this was a “proof-of-concept” byelection. Get on with it and put the messiah of Manchester in Downing Street. That will be the siren song of the Burnhamites. [But] Bar superglueing the front door of Number 10, the incumbent has done everything he can to indicate that he will only be dragged out of the building by his fingernails.

    Sir Keir has already suggested that, if there is to be a contest for the top job, the battle should not be joined before the people of Greater Manchester have decided who will be their next mayor in the byelection for the vacancy which will now ensue. That can’t be resolved before the very end of July, which is surely one of the reasons for making this suggestion. Sir Keir buys himself more time at Number 10 while increasing the chance that some of the shine will come off his rival as Mr Burnham is subject to elevated scrutiny.

    This presents Team Andy with a dilemma. Press on with a near-immediate challenge for Number 10 and his enemies will portray him as a man who is entirely self-centred and too consumed by personal ambition to care what happens to the city he was running five minutes ago.

    Camp Burnham would much prefer Sir Keir to agree to set a departure date. It is widely believed that Mr Burnham will urge the prime minister to take this course when they have what will surely be an excruciatingly awkward conversation with each other. Quite a lot of the cabinet favour this way forward. If he continues to spurn that advice, the test...will be whether they are prepared to resign from the government, with all the chaos that would entail, to attempt to bend him to their will. Others in the cabinet fume in opposition to the idea that Mr Burnham should be simply gifted the top job without a proper contest.

    [Makerfield voters] have propelled Andy Burnham in the direction of Number 10, but that is not in itself enough to get him over the threshold. What happens next will depend on the feverish calculations made down in Westminster by the most senior politicians in the land.

    If Labour want to win the Mayoral election - they can't have SKS leading the campaign - they need Burnham sat in No 10..
    The Manchester by election for Mayor is on Thursday 30th July.

    So I stick with my forecast that Burnham will become PM on Thursday 17th July, the day before recess.

    This allows Burnham to campaign in the Manchester by election as PM with no parliamentary business to distract him. The only date in his diary will be the EU Summit in Brussels on 22nd July.

    It took six weeks for Brown to replace Blair in 2007, how do we think the party can truncate the process down to less than four weeks now?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,536

    Burnham leads Starmer on “is an experienced leader”, which is clearly nonsense given their respective CVs. Which shows you how much vibes matter.

    Yes. These sorts of questions are mostly answered as variations on, "do you like person x".

    How long will the public continue to like Burnham?

    I think there's a decent chance of the tide turning on him as soon as the pre-Budget speculation starts in earnest, probably before the August bank holiday.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,140

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    No it’s not.

    There’s other options.

    Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
    Letting Reform run a minority government means "putting Nigel Farage in power".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,981
    edited 10:58AM
    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Today's hot offering from Rawnsley, obviously on topic:

    It would be unwise to leap to the assumption that the King In The North will now sweep southwards to effortlessly seize the crown jewels of Downing Street.

    For his devotees, this was a “proof-of-concept” byelection. Get on with it and put the messiah of Manchester in Downing Street. That will be the siren song of the Burnhamites. [But] Bar superglueing the front door of Number 10, the incumbent has done everything he can to indicate that he will only be dragged out of the building by his fingernails.

    Sir Keir has already suggested that, if there is to be a contest for the top job, the battle should not be joined before the people of Greater Manchester have decided who will be their next mayor in the byelection for the vacancy which will now ensue. That can’t be resolved before the very end of July, which is surely one of the reasons for making this suggestion. Sir Keir buys himself more time at Number 10 while increasing the chance that some of the shine will come off his rival as Mr Burnham is subject to elevated scrutiny.

    This presents Team Andy with a dilemma. Press on with a near-immediate challenge for Number 10 and his enemies will portray him as a man who is entirely self-centred and too consumed by personal ambition to care what happens to the city he was running five minutes ago.

    Camp Burnham would much prefer Sir Keir to agree to set a departure date. It is widely believed that Mr Burnham will urge the prime minister to take this course when they have what will surely be an excruciatingly awkward conversation with each other. Quite a lot of the cabinet favour this way forward. If he continues to spurn that advice, the test...will be whether they are prepared to resign from the government, with all the chaos that would entail, to attempt to bend him to their will. Others in the cabinet fume in opposition to the idea that Mr Burnham should be simply gifted the top job without a proper contest.

    [Makerfield voters] have propelled Andy Burnham in the direction of Number 10, but that is not in itself enough to get him over the threshold. What happens next will depend on the feverish calculations made down in Westminster by the most senior politicians in the land.

    If Labour want to win the Mayoral election - they can't have SKS leading the campaign - they need Burnham sat in No 10..
    The Manchester by election for Mayor is on Thursday 30th July.

    So I stick with my forecast that Burnham will become PM on Thursday 17th July, the day before recess.

    This allows Burnham to campaign in the Manchester by election as PM with no parliamentary business to distract him. The only date in his diary will be the EU Summit in Brussels on 22nd July.

    It took six weeks for Brown to replace Blair in 2007, how do we think the party can truncate the process down to less than four weeks now?
    If Burnham can get 330 nominations by Friday then nobody else can stand.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,089

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    Badenoch's problem is not her answer, but that the question is being asked, and it is being asked repeatedly, drowning out anything else she might want to say.
    Yes, acceptance that they are junior.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,178

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    No it’s not.

    There’s other options.

    Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
    Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,946

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Today's hot offering from Rawnsley, obviously on topic:

    It would be unwise to leap to the assumption that the King In The North will now sweep southwards to effortlessly seize the crown jewels of Downing Street.

    For his devotees, this was a “proof-of-concept” byelection. Get on with it and put the messiah of Manchester in Downing Street. That will be the siren song of the Burnhamites. [But] Bar superglueing the front door of Number 10, the incumbent has done everything he can to indicate that he will only be dragged out of the building by his fingernails.

    Sir Keir has already suggested that, if there is to be a contest for the top job, the battle should not be joined before the people of Greater Manchester have decided who will be their next mayor in the byelection for the vacancy which will now ensue. That can’t be resolved before the very end of July, which is surely one of the reasons for making this suggestion. Sir Keir buys himself more time at Number 10 while increasing the chance that some of the shine will come off his rival as Mr Burnham is subject to elevated scrutiny.

    This presents Team Andy with a dilemma. Press on with a near-immediate challenge for Number 10 and his enemies will portray him as a man who is entirely self-centred and too consumed by personal ambition to care what happens to the city he was running five minutes ago.

    Camp Burnham would much prefer Sir Keir to agree to set a departure date. It is widely believed that Mr Burnham will urge the prime minister to take this course when they have what will surely be an excruciatingly awkward conversation with each other. Quite a lot of the cabinet favour this way forward. If he continues to spurn that advice, the test...will be whether they are prepared to resign from the government, with all the chaos that would entail, to attempt to bend him to their will. Others in the cabinet fume in opposition to the idea that Mr Burnham should be simply gifted the top job without a proper contest.

    [Makerfield voters] have propelled Andy Burnham in the direction of Number 10, but that is not in itself enough to get him over the threshold. What happens next will depend on the feverish calculations made down in Westminster by the most senior politicians in the land.

    If Labour want to win the Mayoral election - they can't have SKS leading the campaign - they need Burnham sat in No 10..
    The Manchester by election for Mayor is on Thursday 30th July.

    So I stick with my forecast that Burnham will become PM on Thursday 17th July, the day before recess.

    This allows Burnham to campaign in the Manchester by election as PM with no parliamentary business to distract him. The only date in his diary will be the EU Summit in Brussels on 22nd July.

    It took six weeks for Brown to replace Blair in 2007, how do we think the party can truncate the process down to less than four weeks now?
    If Burnham can get 330 nominations by Friday then nobody else can stand.
    Brown was the same. There were five weeks between Brown having all of the nominations and him being formally elected leader.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Brown
    On 11 May 2007, after months of speculation, Brown formally announced his bid for the Labour leadership. He launched his campaign website the same day as formally announcing his bid for leadership, titled "Gordon Brown for Britain".[86] On 16 May, Channel 4 News announced that Andrew MacKinlay had nominated Brown, giving him 308 nominations—enough to avoid a leadership contest. A BBC report states that the decisive nomination was made by Tony Wright with MacKinlay yet to nominate at that point.[87] Brown replaced Blair as Leader of the Labour Party on 24 June 2007.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,946
    Sandpit said:

    Who will collapse first? England, or Starmer?

    I reckon Starmer makes it to lunch, so England to go first.
    Wish I’d bet on that prediction! England didn’t make it to lunch.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,077

    Burnham leads Starmer on “is an experienced leader”, which is clearly nonsense given their respective CVs. Which shows you how much vibes matter.

    It's the dirty secret (or one of them) of politics. Vibes win. Beyond a certain point, the don't help once you've won, but that's a problem for another day.

    See Boris driving a JCB through that styrofoam wall in 2019.
  • Burnham also at least has some experience in government and a home in the Labour Party
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,711
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    No it’s not.

    There’s other options.

    Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
    Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
    How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,077
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    No it’s not.

    There’s other options.

    Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
    Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
    After that vote, the Prime Minister would either be NF or AN Other. To not participate would still be to make an implicit choice.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,760

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    Badenoch's problem is not her answer, but that the question is being asked, and it is being asked repeatedly, drowning out anything else she might want to say.
    It's the arithmetic. On current polling Badenoch's only potential relevance is as a junior partner putting Farage into power. Either (1) Reform can win on its own; (2) Labour wins with or without a coalition; (3) Reform wins supported by the Tories. The Tories are only involved in scenario (3).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,711

    Burnham leads Starmer on “is an experienced leader”, which is clearly nonsense given their respective CVs. Which shows you how much vibes matter.

    It's the dirty secret (or one of them) of politics. Vibes win. Beyond a certain point, the don't help once you've won, but that's a problem for another day.

    See Boris driving a JCB through that styrofoam wall in 2019.
    It isn't really a secret, but one fans of rational objectivity are just keen to ignore as it doesn't fit their world view.
    How else do you explain the enduring fanaticism for Trump?
    An abject failure in Office by objective measures.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,089
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    No it’s not.

    There’s other options.

    Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
    Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
    How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"
    To a lawyer it's not on a technically true basis. Doesn't change how people view it.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,077
    Driver said:

    What a chart, the scale perfectly picked to disguise how objectively low Burnham's ratings are.

    The Great British Public don't really like anyone. And history suggests that the only way is down.

    Anyhoo- anyone know how Burnham's ratings now compare with Starmer's in 2020 or 2024?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,720
    FPT:
    Sandpit said:

    Tres said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dopermean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    It's curious that the thing that finally pushed Trump into full on gibbering insanity was his crappy pool job.

    https://x.com/SethAbramson/status/2068498088038109366

    It has to be the absolute peak of Trump Derangement Syndrome, that people are now vandalising national monuments in Washington because they don’t like the man in the big White House who’s trying to clean up the city for the 250th celebrations, egged on by a mainstream media who think that it’s the biggest news story in the world this week.
    I can't see any corroboration of Trump's claims of vandalism, just the arrest of an innocent cyclist.
    It has to be absolute peak of embarrassment to mindlessly repeat Trump's lies and propaganda.
    As I said, peak TDS, people totally losing their minds because they don’t like the guy who’s trying to clean up the city.
    And a wonderful job he's making of it!




    https://x.com/OccupyDemocrats/status/2068411043378876647?s=20

    This is how the fake news spreads. That picture of the reflecting pool full of algae is from 2022.

    The other pictures show the ballroom construction that’s ongoing, and the teardown from the UFC event last week, that the UFC paid for entirely and includes restoration of the grass in their budget.

    And here’s the ‘innocent cyclist’ who waded in and ripped off a chunk of the sealant from the pool. Note the lack of visible algae in the picture.
    https://x.com/real_ames/status/2068405487851163695

    This pool has been a nightmare for decades, it’s not a new thing, just people starting with OrangeManBad and working backwards. The pool workers now need to have police protection from the idiots trying to cause disruption.
    the difference is your man is the only president who is having a melt down over it
    He’s mad because people are vandalising a pool that just got renovated, just because they don’t like him.

    Everyone used to agree that cleaning up a city is a good thing, now there’s thousands of people who would prefer it dirty because they don’t like the president.
    I'm not sure that they can stand that up ie "vandalism" and "tools". Here's the photo. AIUI bits of the swimming pool lining have been breaking off and floating around.



    Report:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2026/06/20/cyclist-arrested-reflecting-pool-denies-trump-vandalism-claims/

    To me this looks like normal Trump overreach, and he will run away as soon as challenged on it, as per usual.

    Professional swimming pool types are not impressed. This is Swimming Pool Steve. The problem is suggested as being inadequate surface prep, which sounds a very Trumpish thing to do. Like not prepping a floor properly before you tile or paint it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcwqnDUC4-Q

    Bonus: here's a Buildhub thread about someone who found an old swimming pool halfway under where he was planning to build his house, and what we all suggested he do with it:
    https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/topic/7461-theres-a-swimming-pool-under-my-house/


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,434

    Burnham leads Starmer on “is an experienced leader”, which is clearly nonsense given their respective CVs. Which shows you how much vibes matter.

    Yes. These sorts of questions are mostly answered as variations on, "do you like person x".

    How long will the public continue to like Burnham?

    I think there's a decent chance of the tide turning on him as soon as the pre-Budget speculation starts in earnest, probably before the August bank holiday.
    "I know what to expect from X" would be a better question, as it's not necessarily a positive thing.

    But I'm not sure even an accurate answer would be a very enlightening one.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,536
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    Badenoch's problem is not her answer, but that the question is being asked, and it is being asked repeatedly, drowning out anything else she might want to say.
    It's the arithmetic. On current polling Badenoch's only potential relevance is as a junior partner putting Farage into power. Either (1) Reform can win on its own; (2) Labour wins with or without a coalition; (3) Reform wins supported by the Tories. The Tories are only involved in scenario (3).
    Indeed. This identifies it as a symptomatic problem.

    Badenoch can not succeed by providing a perfect answer to the question. The measure of her success would be to make the question irrelevant or nonsensical. You might have thought that the Aberdeen South by-election victory would help with that, but clearly she has some way to go.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,115

    kle4 said:

    Root - great batsmen, bad captain.

    (Bit harsh, the players just not there)

    It's not harsh, I said he's the anti Mike Brearley.

    It's not harsh to say that he overbowled Jofra Archer, to the detriment of his career.
    I am a huge Root fan, but he's long since proved an utter nullity as captain. It was an act of cruelty/incompetence to press him back into service.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,230

    Burnham leads Starmer on “is an experienced leader”, which is clearly nonsense given their respective CVs. Which shows you how much vibes matter.

    Burnham’s been leader of Greater Manchester for a lot longer than Starmer has been Labour leader.
    OK, 9 years as Mayor versus Starmer’s 2 as PM and 4 as LotO (and 5 as DPP), but Starmer has wielded more executive power.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,151
    Regarding Starmer's departure date, if I were him I would push for an exit plan with Burnham taking over sometime between the end of July and early September. That way, on the outside chance that England win the World Cup he'd have the enjoyable honour of welcoming the team back. It may seem a petty thing but Starmer is a committed genuine football fan, I think it would mean a lot to him.

    If I were Burnham, I'd let Starmer have the honour, and focus during July on developing a big impacting plan for my Premiership, to hit the ground running.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,119
    edited 11:16AM
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    Badenoch's problem is not her answer, but that the question is being asked, and it is being asked repeatedly, drowning out anything else she might want to say.
    It's the arithmetic. On current polling Badenoch's only potential relevance is as a junior partner putting Farage into power. Either (1) Reform can win on its own; (2) Labour wins with or without a coalition; (3) Reform wins supported by the Tories. The Tories are only involved in scenario (3).
    But scenario 3 is a reason why a lot of voters won’t vote for the Tory party.

    Heck it’s a risk I wouldn’t take and our former Tory MP did a very good job and is standing at the next election. Could I vote for him at the moment - nope it’s a risk 2 far in two different ways

    1) there is a chance the Tories could let Reform in via scenario 3

    2) it’s unlikely that the Tories are the not Reform party around here - Labour is likely to be the better guess

    Now with a decent voting system that isn’t a question but it’s FPTP which means pick the least worst candidate the can win rather than your preferred choice
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,598

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    No it’s not.

    There’s other options.

    Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
    Which options would be available will depend primarily on the maths.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,760

    Burnham leads Starmer on “is an experienced leader”, which is clearly nonsense given their respective CVs. Which shows you how much vibes matter.

    It's the dirty secret (or one of them) of politics. Vibes win. Beyond a certain point, the don't help once you've won, but that's a problem for another day.

    See Boris driving a JCB through that styrofoam wall in 2019.
    If people think there's a problem, you have a problem is a big thing in politics. There's no doubt people think Starmer is bad. But a prime minister has an actual job to do. While I would say Starmer has a mixed record and not as effective as I was expecting, I don't think he's done as badly as people think he has - importantly no worse than his predecessors or likely successor.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,115

    Jesus, Mary and Joseph and the wee donkey!

    https://x.com/RobDunsmore/status/2068640122925445252?s=20

    I'd be rooting for nuclear Armageddon.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,230

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    No it’s not.

    There’s other options.

    Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
    Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
    After that vote, the Prime Minister would either be NF or AN Other. To not participate would still be to make an implicit choice.
    “If you choose not to decide
    You still have made a choice”

    Rush, “Freewill”, 1980, https://www.rush.com/songs/freewill/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,115
    Driver said:

    What a chart, the scale perfectly picked to disguise how objectively low Burnham's ratings are.

    His scores on the last three measures don't foretell a long honeymoon.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,760
    edited 11:24AM
    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    Badenoch's problem is not her answer, but that the question is being asked, and it is being asked repeatedly, drowning out anything else she might want to say.
    It's the arithmetic. On current polling Badenoch's only potential relevance is as a junior partner putting Farage into power. Either (1) Reform can win on its own; (2) Labour wins with or without a coalition; (3) Reform wins supported by the Tories. The Tories are only involved in scenario (3).
    But scenario 3 is a reason why a lot of voters won’t vote for the Tory party.

    Heck it’s a risk I wouldn’t take and our former Tory MP did a very good job and is standing at the next election. Could I vote for him at the moment - nope it’s a risk 2 far in two different ways

    1) there is a chance the Tories could let Reform in via scenario 3

    2) it’s unlikely that the Tories are the not Reform party around here - Labour is likely to be the better guess

    Now with a decent voting system that isn’t a question but it’s FPTP which means pick the least worst candidate the can win rather than your preferred choice
    It is a conundrum for the Tories. Vote for us to not put Reform into power is the route back to dominant party of the right/centre-right. But who's going to vote for them on that basis?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,434

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    Badenoch's problem is not her answer, but that the question is being asked, and it is being asked repeatedly, drowning out anything else she might want to say.
    It's the arithmetic. On current polling Badenoch's only potential relevance is as a junior partner putting Farage into power. Either (1) Reform can win on its own; (2) Labour wins with or without a coalition; (3) Reform wins supported by the Tories. The Tories are only involved in scenario (3).
    Indeed. This identifies it as a symptomatic problem.

    Badenoch can not succeed by providing a perfect answer to the question. The measure of her success would be to make the question irrelevant or nonsensical. You might have thought that the Aberdeen South by-election victory would help with that, but clearly she has some way to go.
    The Tories are doing the right thing - the only thing. As I said some months ago, they need to establish their regional redoubts, and that's what they are doing. Aberdeen South (hopefully followed by others - Angus was Tory till fairly recently) is an excellent and significant one, and it has won grudging respect from Nigel. Then they can be part of the conversation, and yes, decide whether after the election they want to be the sensible hand on the tiller of a Refuk coalition, or let it fall. Plenty of life in the Tories yet.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,957
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Today's hot offering from Rawnsley, obviously on topic:

    It would be unwise to leap to the assumption that the King In The North will now sweep southwards to effortlessly seize the crown jewels of Downing Street.

    For his devotees, this was a “proof-of-concept” byelection. Get on with it and put the messiah of Manchester in Downing Street. That will be the siren song of the Burnhamites. [But] Bar superglueing the front door of Number 10, the incumbent has done everything he can to indicate that he will only be dragged out of the building by his fingernails.

    Sir Keir has already suggested that, if there is to be a contest for the top job, the battle should not be joined before the people of Greater Manchester have decided who will be their next mayor in the byelection for the vacancy which will now ensue. That can’t be resolved before the very end of July, which is surely one of the reasons for making this suggestion. Sir Keir buys himself more time at Number 10 while increasing the chance that some of the shine will come off his rival as Mr Burnham is subject to elevated scrutiny.

    This presents Team Andy with a dilemma. Press on with a near-immediate challenge for Number 10 and his enemies will portray him as a man who is entirely self-centred and too consumed by personal ambition to care what happens to the city he was running five minutes ago.

    Camp Burnham would much prefer Sir Keir to agree to set a departure date. It is widely believed that Mr Burnham will urge the prime minister to take this course when they have what will surely be an excruciatingly awkward conversation with each other. Quite a lot of the cabinet favour this way forward. If he continues to spurn that advice, the test...will be whether they are prepared to resign from the government, with all the chaos that would entail, to attempt to bend him to their will. Others in the cabinet fume in opposition to the idea that Mr Burnham should be simply gifted the top job without a proper contest.

    [Makerfield voters] have propelled Andy Burnham in the direction of Number 10, but that is not in itself enough to get him over the threshold. What happens next will depend on the feverish calculations made down in Westminster by the most senior politicians in the land.

    If Labour want to win the Mayoral election - they can't have SKS leading the campaign - they need Burnham sat in No 10..
    The Manchester by election for Mayor is on Thursday 30th July.

    So I stick with my forecast that Burnham will become PM on Thursday 17th July, the day before recess.

    This allows Burnham to campaign in the Manchester by election as PM with no parliamentary business to distract him. The only date in his diary will be the EU Summit in Brussels on 22nd July.

    It took six weeks for Brown to replace Blair in 2007, how do we think the party can truncate the process down to less than four weeks now?
    If Burnham can get 330 nominations by Friday then nobody else can stand.
    Brown was the same. There were five weeks between Brown having all of the nominations and him being formally elected leader.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Brown
    On 11 May 2007, after months of speculation, Brown formally announced his bid for the Labour leadership. He launched his campaign website the same day as formally announcing his bid for leadership, titled "Gordon Brown for Britain".[86] On 16 May, Channel 4 News announced that Andrew MacKinlay had nominated Brown, giving him 308 nominations—enough to avoid a leadership contest. A BBC report states that the decisive nomination was made by Tony Wright with MacKinlay yet to nominate at that point.[87] Brown replaced Blair as Leader of the Labour Party on 24 June 2007.
    Because Blair set himself a fairly long resignation timetable, not because it needs to be that long.

    Starmer will take matters into his own hands to avoid the challenge by resigning tomorrow and give himself long enough to hit his second anniversary, which Burnham will be OK with as it avoids any unpleasantness, but there's no need for it to take as long Blair/Brown took.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,536

    Regarding Starmer's departure date, if I were him I would push for an exit plan with Burnham taking over sometime between the end of July and early September. That way, on the outside chance that England win the World Cup he'd have the enjoyable honour of welcoming the team back. It may seem a petty thing but Starmer is a committed genuine football fan, I think it would mean a lot to him.

    If I were Burnham, I'd let Starmer have the honour, and focus during July on developing a big impacting plan for my Premiership, to hit the ground running.

    I really think that would be a mistake.

    The public want rid of Starmer and I don't think they would be happy about prolonging the agony.

    The longer that Burnham spends as a leader-in-waiting the easier it is for his opponents to define him negatively. He needs to become PM so that he can start defining himself more positively with his actions.

    Events. The more time passes the greater the chance of some slip between cup and lip. Get it done and get it done quickly.

    The idea that Burnham requires at least a month of notice period before becoming PM, because otherwise he doesn't have a clue what he is going to do, is risible. It might be true, but it's no less pathetic. He cannot credibly say, "I urgently need to take over as PM to fix the country, but give be a couple of months to work out how I'm going to do that before I do so."

    This is why I repeatedly said that Labour needed to work out what they needed to do differently, before deciding who they needed to implement that. Doing things the other way around isn't going to work.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,598

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    No it’s not.

    There’s other options.

    Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
    Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
    After that vote, the Prime Minister would either be NF or AN Other. To not participate would still be to make an implicit choice.
    “If you choose not to decide
    You still have made a choice”

    Rush, “Freewill”, 1980, https://www.rush.com/songs/freewill/
    Indeed. Abstaining is just consenting to what others decide. And in this case, what others would decide would be known.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,957

    Burnham leads Starmer on “is an experienced leader”, which is clearly nonsense given their respective CVs. Which shows you how much vibes matter.

    Burnham’s been leader of Greater Manchester for a lot longer than Starmer has been Labour leader.
    OK, 9 years as Mayor versus Starmer’s 2 as PM and 4 as LotO (and 5 as DPP), but Starmer has wielded more executive power.
    Has he?

    He's had more executive power available to him, but has he wielded it?

    If he had, he might not be in this mess.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,913

    I want a Starmer v Burnham contest so that I get the chance to draw a cock and balls on my ballot paper.

    You can't vote for them both!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,115
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    Sandpit said:

    Tres said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dopermean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    It's curious that the thing that finally pushed Trump into full on gibbering insanity was his crappy pool job.

    https://x.com/SethAbramson/status/2068498088038109366

    It has to be the absolute peak of Trump Derangement Syndrome, that people are now vandalising national monuments in Washington because they don’t like the man in the big White House who’s trying to clean up the city for the 250th celebrations, egged on by a mainstream media who think that it’s the biggest news story in the world this week.
    I can't see any corroboration of Trump's claims of vandalism, just the arrest of an innocent cyclist.
    It has to be absolute peak of embarrassment to mindlessly repeat Trump's lies and propaganda.
    As I said, peak TDS, people totally losing their minds because they don’t like the guy who’s trying to clean up the city.
    And a wonderful job he's making of it!




    https://x.com/OccupyDemocrats/status/2068411043378876647?s=20

    This is how the fake news spreads. That picture of the reflecting pool full of algae is from 2022.

    The other pictures show the ballroom construction that’s ongoing, and the teardown from the UFC event last week, that the UFC paid for entirely and includes restoration of the grass in their budget.

    And here’s the ‘innocent cyclist’ who waded in and ripped off a chunk of the sealant from the pool. Note the lack of visible algae in the picture.
    https://x.com/real_ames/status/2068405487851163695

    This pool has been a nightmare for decades, it’s not a new thing, just people starting with OrangeManBad and working backwards. The pool workers now need to have police protection from the idiots trying to cause disruption.
    the difference is your man is the only president who is having a melt down over it
    He’s mad because people are vandalising a pool that just got renovated, just because they don’t like him.

    Everyone used to agree that cleaning up a city is a good thing, now there’s thousands of people who would prefer it dirty because they don’t like the president.
    I'm not sure that they can stand that up ie "vandalism" and "tools". Here's the photo. AIUI bits of the swimming pool lining have been breaking off and floating around.



    Report:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2026/06/20/cyclist-arrested-reflecting-pool-denies-trump-vandalism-claims/

    To me this looks like normal Trump overreach, and he will run away as soon as challenged on it, as per usual.

    Professional swimming pool types are not impressed. This is Swimming Pool Steve. The problem is suggested as being inadequate surface prep, which sounds a very Trumpish thing to do. Like not prepping a floor properly before you tile or paint it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcwqnDUC4-Q

    Many such comments.

    ..Asked a contractor pal about the $13M paint job peeling off the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.

    Him: I knew that'd happen.
    Me: How?
    Him: You can't rush that kind of job. The pool bottom has to be really dry or it'll exude water. And you have to clean it like a mofo first...

    https://x.com/CharlesCMann/status/2068491523017110000

    And Sandpit is going with Trump's midnight ravings.

    In the greater scheme of this administrations crimes and blunders, this is comparatively trivial, but it's also a clear illustration of a movement in denial.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,598
    edited 11:30AM

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Today's hot offering from Rawnsley, obviously on topic:

    It would be unwise to leap to the assumption that the King In The North will now sweep southwards to effortlessly seize the crown jewels of Downing Street.

    For his devotees, this was a “proof-of-concept” byelection. Get on with it and put the messiah of Manchester in Downing Street. That will be the siren song of the Burnhamites. [But] Bar superglueing the front door of Number 10, the incumbent has done everything he can to indicate that he will only be dragged out of the building by his fingernails.

    Sir Keir has already suggested that, if there is to be a contest for the top job, the battle should not be joined before the people of Greater Manchester have decided who will be their next mayor in the byelection for the vacancy which will now ensue. That can’t be resolved before the very end of July, which is surely one of the reasons for making this suggestion. Sir Keir buys himself more time at Number 10 while increasing the chance that some of the shine will come off his rival as Mr Burnham is subject to elevated scrutiny.

    This presents Team Andy with a dilemma. Press on with a near-immediate challenge for Number 10 and his enemies will portray him as a man who is entirely self-centred and too consumed by personal ambition to care what happens to the city he was running five minutes ago.

    Camp Burnham would much prefer Sir Keir to agree to set a departure date. It is widely believed that Mr Burnham will urge the prime minister to take this course when they have what will surely be an excruciatingly awkward conversation with each other. Quite a lot of the cabinet favour this way forward. If he continues to spurn that advice, the test...will be whether they are prepared to resign from the government, with all the chaos that would entail, to attempt to bend him to their will. Others in the cabinet fume in opposition to the idea that Mr Burnham should be simply gifted the top job without a proper contest.

    [Makerfield voters] have propelled Andy Burnham in the direction of Number 10, but that is not in itself enough to get him over the threshold. What happens next will depend on the feverish calculations made down in Westminster by the most senior politicians in the land.

    If Labour want to win the Mayoral election - they can't have SKS leading the campaign - they need Burnham sat in No 10..
    The Manchester by election for Mayor is on Thursday 30th July.

    So I stick with my forecast that Burnham will become PM on Thursday 17th July, the day before recess.

    This allows Burnham to campaign in the Manchester by election as PM with no parliamentary business to distract him. The only date in his diary will be the EU Summit in Brussels on 22nd July.

    It took six weeks for Brown to replace Blair in 2007, how do we think the party can truncate the process down to less than four weeks now?
    If Burnham can get 330 nominations by Friday then nobody else can stand.
    Brown was the same. There were five weeks between Brown having all of the nominations and him being formally elected leader.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Brown
    On 11 May 2007, after months of speculation, Brown formally announced his bid for the Labour leadership. He launched his campaign website the same day as formally announcing his bid for leadership, titled "Gordon Brown for Britain".[86] On 16 May, Channel 4 News announced that Andrew MacKinlay had nominated Brown, giving him 308 nominations—enough to avoid a leadership contest. A BBC report states that the decisive nomination was made by Tony Wright with MacKinlay yet to nominate at that point.[87] Brown replaced Blair as Leader of the Labour Party on 24 June 2007.
    Because Blair set himself a fairly long resignation timetable, not because it needs to be that long.

    Starmer will take matters into his own hands to avoid the challenge by resigning tomorrow and give himself long enough to hit his second anniversary, which Burnham will be OK with as it avoids any unpleasantness, but there's no need for it to take as long Blair/Brown took.
    The Labour leadership election process is more rigid in many ways than that of the Tories, but this isn't one of them - the timetable isn't defined in the Rule Book, which says merely "The timetable for the election, and the procedures for agreeing the list of those eligible to vote must be approved by the Independent Scrutineer." After, presumably though I don't see it explicitly, being determined by the NEC.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,150
    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Today's hot offering from Rawnsley, obviously on topic:

    It would be unwise to leap to the assumption that the King In The North will now sweep southwards to effortlessly seize the crown jewels of Downing Street.

    For his devotees, this was a “proof-of-concept” byelection. Get on with it and put the messiah of Manchester in Downing Street. That will be the siren song of the Burnhamites. [But] Bar superglueing the front door of Number 10, the incumbent has done everything he can to indicate that he will only be dragged out of the building by his fingernails.

    Sir Keir has already suggested that, if there is to be a contest for the top job, the battle should not be joined before the people of Greater Manchester have decided who will be their next mayor in the byelection for the vacancy which will now ensue. That can’t be resolved before the very end of July, which is surely one of the reasons for making this suggestion. Sir Keir buys himself more time at Number 10 while increasing the chance that some of the shine will come off his rival as Mr Burnham is subject to elevated scrutiny.

    This presents Team Andy with a dilemma. Press on with a near-immediate challenge for Number 10 and his enemies will portray him as a man who is entirely self-centred and too consumed by personal ambition to care what happens to the city he was running five minutes ago.

    Camp Burnham would much prefer Sir Keir to agree to set a departure date. It is widely believed that Mr Burnham will urge the prime minister to take this course when they have what will surely be an excruciatingly awkward conversation with each other. Quite a lot of the cabinet favour this way forward. If he continues to spurn that advice, the test...will be whether they are prepared to resign from the government, with all the chaos that would entail, to attempt to bend him to their will. Others in the cabinet fume in opposition to the idea that Mr Burnham should be simply gifted the top job without a proper contest.

    [Makerfield voters] have propelled Andy Burnham in the direction of Number 10, but that is not in itself enough to get him over the threshold. What happens next will depend on the feverish calculations made down in Westminster by the most senior politicians in the land.

    If Labour want to win the Mayoral election - they can't have SKS leading the campaign - they need Burnham sat in No 10..
    The Manchester by election for Mayor is on Thursday 30th July.

    So I stick with my forecast that Burnham will become PM on Thursday 17th July, the day before recess.

    This allows Burnham to campaign in the Manchester by election as PM with no parliamentary business to distract him. The only date in his diary will be the EU Summit in Brussels on 22nd July.

    It took six weeks for Brown to replace Blair in 2007, how do we think the party can truncate the process down to less than four weeks now?
    If only one candidate meets the MP nomination threshold of 81, or if rival candidates quickly concede to a single undisputed frontrunner, the NEC can cancel the wider membership ballot stage, turning the election into a formality.

    It took six weeks for Gordon Brown to officially take over from Tony Blair because Tony Blair chose not to resign immediately, instead using a pre-announced, seven-week transition timeline to manage an orderly exit.

    If Starmer, on Monday, announces a 25 day transition timeline and there are no other candidates, that would do it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,115

    Regarding Starmer's departure date, if I were him I would push for an exit plan with Burnham taking over sometime between the end of July and early September. That way, on the outside chance that England win the World Cup he'd have the enjoyable honour of welcoming the team back. It may seem a petty thing but Starmer is a committed genuine football fan, I think it would mean a lot to him.

    If I were Burnham, I'd let Starmer have the honour, and focus during July on developing a big impacting plan for my Premiership, to hit the ground running.

    I really think that would be a mistake.

    The public want rid of Starmer and I don't think they would be happy about prolonging the agony.

    The longer that Burnham spends as a leader-in-waiting the easier it is for his opponents to define him negatively. He needs to become PM so that he can start defining himself more positively with his actions.

    Events. The more time passes the greater the chance of some slip between cup and lip. Get it done and get it done quickly.

    The idea that Burnham requires at least a month of notice period before becoming PM, because otherwise he doesn't have a clue what he is going to do, is risible. It might be true, but it's no less pathetic. He cannot credibly say, "I urgently need to take over as PM to fix the country, but give be a couple of months to work out how I'm going to do that before I do so."

    This is why I repeatedly said that Labour needed to work out what they needed to do differently, before deciding who they needed to implement that. Doing things the other way around isn't going to work.
    The other point is that a prime reason Starmer is being ditched is a failure to just get on with stuff.
    In that context, taking more than a couple of weeks at most to replace him would be ridiculous.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,089
    edited 11:33AM
    Barnesian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Today's hot offering from Rawnsley, obviously on topic:

    It would be unwise to leap to the assumption that the King In The North will now sweep southwards to effortlessly seize the crown jewels of Downing Street.

    For his devotees, this was a “proof-of-concept” byelection. Get on with it and put the messiah of Manchester in Downing Street. That will be the siren song of the Burnhamites. [But] Bar superglueing the front door of Number 10, the incumbent has done everything he can to indicate that he will only be dragged out of the building by his fingernails.

    Sir Keir has already suggested that, if there is to be a contest for the top job, the battle should not be joined before the people of Greater Manchester have decided who will be their next mayor in the byelection for the vacancy which will now ensue. That can’t be resolved before the very end of July, which is surely one of the reasons for making this suggestion. Sir Keir buys himself more time at Number 10 while increasing the chance that some of the shine will come off his rival as Mr Burnham is subject to elevated scrutiny.

    This presents Team Andy with a dilemma. Press on with a near-immediate challenge for Number 10 and his enemies will portray him as a man who is entirely self-centred and too consumed by personal ambition to care what happens to the city he was running five minutes ago.

    Camp Burnham would much prefer Sir Keir to agree to set a departure date. It is widely believed that Mr Burnham will urge the prime minister to take this course when they have what will surely be an excruciatingly awkward conversation with each other. Quite a lot of the cabinet favour this way forward. If he continues to spurn that advice, the test...will be whether they are prepared to resign from the government, with all the chaos that would entail, to attempt to bend him to their will. Others in the cabinet fume in opposition to the idea that Mr Burnham should be simply gifted the top job without a proper contest.

    [Makerfield voters] have propelled Andy Burnham in the direction of Number 10, but that is not in itself enough to get him over the threshold. What happens next will depend on the feverish calculations made down in Westminster by the most senior politicians in the land.

    If Labour want to win the Mayoral election - they can't have SKS leading the campaign - they need Burnham sat in No 10..
    The Manchester by election for Mayor is on Thursday 30th July.

    So I stick with my forecast that Burnham will become PM on Thursday 17th July, the day before recess.

    This allows Burnham to campaign in the Manchester by election as PM with no parliamentary business to distract him. The only date in his diary will be the EU Summit in Brussels on 22nd July.

    It took six weeks for Brown to replace Blair in 2007, how do we think the party can truncate the process down to less than four weeks now?
    If only one candidate meets the MP nomination threshold of 81, or if rival candidates quickly concede to a single undisputed frontrunner, the NEC can cancel the wider membership ballot stage, turning the election into a formality.

    It took six weeks for Gordon Brown to officially take over from Tony Blair because Tony Blair chose not to resign immediately, instead using a pre-announced, seven-week transition timeline to manage an orderly exit.

    If Starmer, on Monday, announces a 25 day transition timeline and there are no other candidates, that would do it.
    "I have a few things to wrap up and Andy will need a few days to prepare, I announce I will resign pending result of a party leadership contest.

    See you next week. Sorry, Wes. Not".
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,384

    Burnham leads Starmer on “is an experienced leader”, which is clearly nonsense given their respective CVs. Which shows you how much vibes matter.

    Burnham’s been leader of Greater Manchester for a lot longer than Starmer has been Labour leader.
    OK, 9 years as Mayor versus Starmer’s 2 as PM and 4 as LotO (and 5 as DPP), but Starmer has wielded more executive power.
    Has he?

    He's had more executive power available to him, but has he wielded it?

    If he had, he might not be in this mess.
    It never crossed my desk comes to mind when referring to Starmer
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,946

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Today's hot offering from Rawnsley, obviously on topic:

    It would be unwise to leap to the assumption that the King In The North will now sweep southwards to effortlessly seize the crown jewels of Downing Street.

    For his devotees, this was a “proof-of-concept” byelection. Get on with it and put the messiah of Manchester in Downing Street. That will be the siren song of the Burnhamites. [But] Bar superglueing the front door of Number 10, the incumbent has done everything he can to indicate that he will only be dragged out of the building by his fingernails.

    Sir Keir has already suggested that, if there is to be a contest for the top job, the battle should not be joined before the people of Greater Manchester have decided who will be their next mayor in the byelection for the vacancy which will now ensue. That can’t be resolved before the very end of July, which is surely one of the reasons for making this suggestion. Sir Keir buys himself more time at Number 10 while increasing the chance that some of the shine will come off his rival as Mr Burnham is subject to elevated scrutiny.

    This presents Team Andy with a dilemma. Press on with a near-immediate challenge for Number 10 and his enemies will portray him as a man who is entirely self-centred and too consumed by personal ambition to care what happens to the city he was running five minutes ago.

    Camp Burnham would much prefer Sir Keir to agree to set a departure date. It is widely believed that Mr Burnham will urge the prime minister to take this course when they have what will surely be an excruciatingly awkward conversation with each other. Quite a lot of the cabinet favour this way forward. If he continues to spurn that advice, the test...will be whether they are prepared to resign from the government, with all the chaos that would entail, to attempt to bend him to their will. Others in the cabinet fume in opposition to the idea that Mr Burnham should be simply gifted the top job without a proper contest.

    [Makerfield voters] have propelled Andy Burnham in the direction of Number 10, but that is not in itself enough to get him over the threshold. What happens next will depend on the feverish calculations made down in Westminster by the most senior politicians in the land.

    If Labour want to win the Mayoral election - they can't have SKS leading the campaign - they need Burnham sat in No 10..
    The Manchester by election for Mayor is on Thursday 30th July.

    So I stick with my forecast that Burnham will become PM on Thursday 17th July, the day before recess.

    This allows Burnham to campaign in the Manchester by election as PM with no parliamentary business to distract him. The only date in his diary will be the EU Summit in Brussels on 22nd July.

    It took six weeks for Brown to replace Blair in 2007, how do we think the party can truncate the process down to less than four weeks now?
    If Burnham can get 330 nominations by Friday then nobody else can stand.
    Brown was the same. There were five weeks between Brown having all of the nominations and him being formally elected leader.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Brown
    On 11 May 2007, after months of speculation, Brown formally announced his bid for the Labour leadership. He launched his campaign website the same day as formally announcing his bid for leadership, titled "Gordon Brown for Britain".[86] On 16 May, Channel 4 News announced that Andrew MacKinlay had nominated Brown, giving him 308 nominations—enough to avoid a leadership contest. A BBC report states that the decisive nomination was made by Tony Wright with MacKinlay yet to nominate at that point.[87] Brown replaced Blair as Leader of the Labour Party on 24 June 2007.
    Because Blair set himself a fairly long resignation timetable, not because it needs to be that long.

    Starmer will take matters into his own hands to avoid the challenge by resigning tomorrow and give himself long enough to hit his second anniversary, which Burnham will be OK with as it avoids any unpleasantness, but there's no need for it to take as long Blair/Brown took.
    But there’s a process involving constituency parties and trade union affiliates.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/05/labour-leadership-election-rules-keir-starmer-challenger/

    I don’t see how the party can get what was a six-week process down to less than four weeks, with the added complication that Starmer has a right be included if he wishes to be, which triggers a full contest expected to take three months.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,230
    edited 11:38AM
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    Sandpit said:

    Tres said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dopermean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    It's curious that the thing that finally pushed Trump into full on gibbering insanity was his crappy pool job.

    https://x.com/SethAbramson/status/2068498088038109366

    It has to be the absolute peak of Trump Derangement Syndrome, that people are now vandalising national monuments in Washington because they don’t like the man in the big White House who’s trying to clean up the city for the 250th celebrations, egged on by a mainstream media who think that it’s the biggest news story in the world this week.
    I can't see any corroboration of Trump's claims of vandalism, just the arrest of an innocent cyclist.
    It has to be absolute peak of embarrassment to mindlessly repeat Trump's lies and propaganda.
    As I said, peak TDS, people totally losing their minds because they don’t like the guy who’s trying to clean up the city.
    And a wonderful job he's making of it!




    https://x.com/OccupyDemocrats/status/2068411043378876647?s=20

    This is how the fake news spreads. That picture of the reflecting pool full of algae is from 2022.

    The other pictures show the ballroom construction that’s ongoing, and the teardown from the UFC event last week, that the UFC paid for entirely and includes restoration of the grass in their budget.

    And here’s the ‘innocent cyclist’ who waded in and ripped off a chunk of the sealant from the pool. Note the lack of visible algae in the picture.
    https://x.com/real_ames/status/2068405487851163695

    This pool has been a nightmare for decades, it’s not a new thing, just people starting with OrangeManBad and working backwards. The pool workers now need to have police protection from the idiots trying to cause disruption.
    the difference is your man is the only president who is having a melt down over it
    He’s mad because people are vandalising a pool that just got renovated, just because they don’t like him.

    Everyone used to agree that cleaning up a city is a good thing, now there’s thousands of people who would prefer it dirty because they don’t like the president.
    I'm not sure that they can stand that up ie "vandalism" and "tools". Here's the photo. AIUI bits of the swimming pool lining have been breaking off and floating around.



    Report:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2026/06/20/cyclist-arrested-reflecting-pool-denies-trump-vandalism-claims/

    To me this looks like normal Trump overreach, and he will run away as soon as challenged on it, as per usual.

    Professional swimming pool types are not impressed. This is Swimming Pool Steve. The problem is suggested as being inadequate surface prep, which sounds a very Trumpish thing to do. Like not prepping a floor properly before you tile or paint it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcwqnDUC4-Q

    Many such comments.

    ..Asked a contractor pal about the $13M paint job peeling off the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.

    Him: I knew that'd happen.
    Me: How?
    Him: You can't rush that kind of job. The pool bottom has to be really dry or it'll exude water. And you have to clean it like a mofo first...

    https://x.com/CharlesCMann/status/2068491523017110000

    And Sandpit is going with Trump's midnight ravings.

    In the greater scheme of this administrations crimes and blunders, this is comparatively trivial, but it's also a clear illustration of a movement in denial.
    What MAGA has learned is that the truth doesn’t matter. What matters is you get your narrative out there quickly and get your tame media to repeat it. Then the rubes will also repeat it. Then it just becomes us versus them again.

    Also, in that photo, of the guy who supposedly vandalised the pool, if he’d vandalised the pool, he’d’ve had to swim down to the bottom of it rather than being bone dry, as he appears to be there.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,089
    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.
    Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.
    No it’s not.

    There’s other options.

    Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.
    Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct
    After that vote, the Prime Minister would either be NF or AN Other. To not participate would still be to make an implicit choice.
    “If you choose not to decide
    You still have made a choice”

    Rush, “Freewill”, 1980, https://www.rush.com/songs/freewill/
    Indeed. Abstaining is just consenting to what others decide. And in this case, what others would decide would be known.
    It's also sometimes a deliberate sign of passive approval, so doesn't work on the occasions people want to claim no involvement.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,957
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Today's hot offering from Rawnsley, obviously on topic:

    It would be unwise to leap to the assumption that the King In The North will now sweep southwards to effortlessly seize the crown jewels of Downing Street.

    For his devotees, this was a “proof-of-concept” byelection. Get on with it and put the messiah of Manchester in Downing Street. That will be the siren song of the Burnhamites. [But] Bar superglueing the front door of Number 10, the incumbent has done everything he can to indicate that he will only be dragged out of the building by his fingernails.

    Sir Keir has already suggested that, if there is to be a contest for the top job, the battle should not be joined before the people of Greater Manchester have decided who will be their next mayor in the byelection for the vacancy which will now ensue. That can’t be resolved before the very end of July, which is surely one of the reasons for making this suggestion. Sir Keir buys himself more time at Number 10 while increasing the chance that some of the shine will come off his rival as Mr Burnham is subject to elevated scrutiny.

    This presents Team Andy with a dilemma. Press on with a near-immediate challenge for Number 10 and his enemies will portray him as a man who is entirely self-centred and too consumed by personal ambition to care what happens to the city he was running five minutes ago.

    Camp Burnham would much prefer Sir Keir to agree to set a departure date. It is widely believed that Mr Burnham will urge the prime minister to take this course when they have what will surely be an excruciatingly awkward conversation with each other. Quite a lot of the cabinet favour this way forward. If he continues to spurn that advice, the test...will be whether they are prepared to resign from the government, with all the chaos that would entail, to attempt to bend him to their will. Others in the cabinet fume in opposition to the idea that Mr Burnham should be simply gifted the top job without a proper contest.

    [Makerfield voters] have propelled Andy Burnham in the direction of Number 10, but that is not in itself enough to get him over the threshold. What happens next will depend on the feverish calculations made down in Westminster by the most senior politicians in the land.

    If Labour want to win the Mayoral election - they can't have SKS leading the campaign - they need Burnham sat in No 10..
    The Manchester by election for Mayor is on Thursday 30th July.

    So I stick with my forecast that Burnham will become PM on Thursday 17th July, the day before recess.

    This allows Burnham to campaign in the Manchester by election as PM with no parliamentary business to distract him. The only date in his diary will be the EU Summit in Brussels on 22nd July.

    It took six weeks for Brown to replace Blair in 2007, how do we think the party can truncate the process down to less than four weeks now?
    If Burnham can get 330 nominations by Friday then nobody else can stand.
    Brown was the same. There were five weeks between Brown having all of the nominations and him being formally elected leader.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Brown
    On 11 May 2007, after months of speculation, Brown formally announced his bid for the Labour leadership. He launched his campaign website the same day as formally announcing his bid for leadership, titled "Gordon Brown for Britain".[86] On 16 May, Channel 4 News announced that Andrew MacKinlay had nominated Brown, giving him 308 nominations—enough to avoid a leadership contest. A BBC report states that the decisive nomination was made by Tony Wright with MacKinlay yet to nominate at that point.[87] Brown replaced Blair as Leader of the Labour Party on 24 June 2007.
    Because Blair set himself a fairly long resignation timetable, not because it needs to be that long.

    Starmer will take matters into his own hands to avoid the challenge by resigning tomorrow and give himself long enough to hit his second anniversary, which Burnham will be OK with as it avoids any unpleasantness, but there's no need for it to take as long Blair/Brown took.
    But there’s a process involving constituency parties and trade union affiliates.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/05/labour-leadership-election-rules-keir-starmer-challenger/

    I don’t see how the party can get what was a six-week process down to less than four weeks, with the added complication that Starmer has a right be included if he wishes to be, which triggers a full contest expected to take three months.
    The rules have changed many times since Brown became leader - and it did not go as quick as it could even then.

    Starmer has the right to be included if he wishes to be, but he's not going to be, he's going to accept the inevitable. Whether he wants to, or not, he's not utterly delusional and his time is up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,089
    The frustrating thing for Starmer is part of the reason for dithering is internal opposition, and yet I bet MPs will be more accomodating for Burnham, early on at least.

    Such is realty when people like you more.
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