It's weird, Twitter kept assuring me Andy Bunrham wasn't even that popular, despite the fact I live in Manchester where he is really popular.
Yes. A succession of folk with no ties to GM kept sternly informing people that it was not true. Even famous non-Labour types like cookie and Barty were basically told they were hallucinating.
Always felt weird to me. I don’t like the man but I can’t deny he’s popular on a scale no Labour person has been for a very long time. Hence why he’s clearly their best choice.
Why don't you like him out of interest? He seems the very definition of a likeable bloke. But maybe that's a NW thing. I never could get the Boris thing.
He strikes me as completely empty and opportunistic and willing to do and say basically anything. He was an average minister and did terribly in two leadership contests (2015 being a particular highlight).
I don’t care where the PM is from. It’s never bothered me.
I don’t hate him. I just don’t warm to him. He seems like Sir Keir but more charismatic.
Thanks. This is interesting. We don't actually have a NW poster who doesn't like him. Even those who disagree with his politics. He's proudly, eloquently and unashamedly from, and of, his place. Maybe we've had too many from the same place?
It's weird, Twitter kept assuring me Andy Bunrham wasn't even that popular, despite the fact I live in Manchester where he is really popular.
Yes. A succession of folk with no ties to GM kept sternly informing people that it was not true. Even famous non-Labour types like cookie and Barty were basically told they were hallucinating.
Always felt weird to me. I don’t like the man but I can’t deny he’s popular on a scale no Labour person has been for a very long time. Hence why he’s clearly their best choice.
Why don't you like him out of interest? He seems the very definition of a likeable bloke. But maybe that's a NW thing. I never could get the Boris thing.
He strikes me as completely empty and opportunistic and willing to do and say basically anything. He was an average minister and did terribly in two leadership contests (2015 being a particular highlight).
I don’t care where the PM is from. It’s never bothered me.
I don’t hate him. I just don’t warm to him. He seems like Sir Keir but more charismatic.
Thanks. This is interesting. We don't actually have a NW poster who doesn't like him. Even those who disagree with his politics. He's proudly, eloquently and unashamedly from, and of, his place. Maybe we've had too many from the same place?
He has a popularity I don’t understand but I totally acknowledge he has true believers in a way others don’t.
But as I’ve said, I’ve never been bothered where the PM is from.
The other thing about Burnham is that he was happy to sit out 2024 and the hard work to actually get Labour into government. Now he gets to ride in.
That is the right thing to do but it gets my back up.
But doesn't that betray a perhaps subconscious belief that the only things that really matter happen in London? Whereas he's helped create an alternative nexus that elsewhere is actually important. And can be better and more successful? Citizens of Somewhere and Levelling Up not just as slogans to win elections but actually as policies?
The other thing about Burnham is that he was happy to sit out 2024 and the hard work to actually get Labour into government. Now he gets to ride in.
That is the right thing to do but it gets my back up.
But doesn't that betray a perhaps subconscious belief that the only things that really matter happen in London? Whereas he's helped create an alternative nexus that elsewhere is actually important. And can be better and more successful? Citizens of Somewhere and Levelling Up not just as slogans to win elections but actually as policies?
Why didn’t he run in 2024? I can’t see what’s changed in two years for him.
Like I said, I’m not against him running now for the sake of the country but I do think there’s something in not wanting to do the hard bit.
PMs spend hardly any time in their own constituencies. But voters don't usually seem to mind. They just like being able think of their MP as doing the top job.
Laura Kuenssberg is very good at what theatre folk called "vamping" - generating words indefinitely to fill an empty space. It's an essential part of live television presentation. But it is annoying if nothing happens.
The result isn’t even going to be close. As was obvious from day one.
Yep. Called this spot on from day one - Burnham was powered by the two biggest forces in British politics today: the anti-Starmer vote and the anti-Farage vote.
This type of personal vote reminds me of Canadian politician Jean Charest winning a big majority in his own constituency at the 1993 general election when at the same time his party the Progressive Conservatives were reduced from being in government to just 2 seats.
This type of personal vote reminds me of Canadian politician Jean Charest winning a big majority in his own constituency at the 1993 general election when at the same time his party the Progressive Conservatives were reduced from being in government to just 2 seats.
Surely a coronation is also odds on. Burnham has shown he’s an electoral winner and it wasn’t even close in a seat Starmer and everyone else is guaranteed to lose.
So in the end a clear win for Burnham with a majority bigger than the combined Reform and Restore votes. He will now say he has proved he can give Labour a bounce and use that as a mandate to challenge Starmer
What Reform really needs is by-elections in the East Midlands, West Midlands, East Anglia. Greater Manchester just isn't as good for them as those areas.
If it wasn't for Aberdeen South this would have been a bad night for the Tories. But with it, it saves Kemi for another day.
They also did well in tonight's locals taking 2 seats from Reform
I'd argue today has been an excellent day for the Conservatives.
They won a Parliamentary seat in Scotland; Reform was beaten in England (emphasising that it's really Con v Lab, again); and they won a couple of Council seats from Reform.
Now, does one swallow make a summer? No.
But it has -nevertheless- been a good day for Kemi.
Very good performance by Burnham, but remember three rules of British politics:
- by-elections tell you nothing whatever about the national picture - how politicians do before they hold office tells you nothing about how they'll do once they hold it - getting rid of a Labour leader is always more difficult than it looks
Very good performance by Burnham, but remember three rules of British politics:
- by-elections tell you nothing whatever about the national picture - how politicians do before they hold office tells you nothing about how they'll do once they hold it - getting rid of a Labour leader is always more difficult than it looks
Local elections, however recent, told us nothing about parliamentary elections.
Betfair Exchange haven't paid out on Aberdeen South yet. Maybe their staffer decided to go to bed and we have to wait until tomorrow.
Betfair has been understaffed for years. Probably there's one person working overnight and he's tied up watching the football and cleaning the toilets.
The football is over, the toilets immaculate, and Betfair has started to settle the by-election markets.
Very good performance by Burnham, but remember three rules of British politics:
- by-elections tell you nothing whatever about the national picture - how politicians do before they hold office tells you nothing about how they'll do once they hold it - getting rid of a Labour leader is always more difficult than it looks
On the third point it now looks piss easy, so it will possibly be of only moderate difficulty.
I'm guessing Starmer will announce his departure on Monday (it wouldn't surprise me if he tries to give himself another few months in the process). If he doesn't, Streeting will precipitate a leadership contest.
Jackson Lahmeyer, the Trump-backed pastor exposed over intimate texts with a former Miss Oklahoma, has gone further, confessing to the Daily Mail: 'In 2022 I cheated on my wife.' 💣 The MAGA preacher is now quitting politics for good, he reveals in a bombshell interview where he apologizes to Donald Trump. https://x.com/IbbetsonRoss/status/2067599935344714010
The resignations of Johnson, Truss and Sunak (his defeat anyway) took place while my wife was in the States visiting her family. She leaves on 30 June for two weeks.
I thought everyone else would get squeezed to shit, and that the total of the two would be 92-95%... Restore outperformed, but my bets were still a winner.
The result isn’t even going to be close. As was obvious from day one.
Yep. Called this spot on from day one - Burnham was powered by the two biggest forces in British politics today: the anti-Starmer vote and the anti-Farage vote.
Thoughts and prayers for Leon.
Kenton was doomed the minute he predicted a Reform win
The result isn’t even going to be close. As was obvious from day one.
Yep. Called this spot on from day one - Burnham was powered by the two biggest forces in British politics today: the anti-Starmer vote and the anti-Farage vote.
Thoughts and prayers for Leon.
I recall on day one I said it was not going to be close and he claimed it was 50/50.
So he tried to make a bet on a 10k margin line, which I rejected out of hand as 10k votes is extreme in a by election.
Ended up being not even close and nowhere near his 50/50, but he knew what he was doing in suggesting a 10k margin bet rather than actually backing his claims of a 50/50 chance.
The result isn’t even going to be close. As was obvious from day one.
Yep. Called this spot on from day one - Burnham was powered by the two biggest forces in British politics today: the anti-Starmer vote and the anti-Farage vote.
Thoughts and prayers for Leon.
I recall on day one I said it was not going to be close and he claimed it was 50/50.
So he tried to make a bet on a 10k margin line, which I rejected out of hand as 10k votes is extreme in a by election.
Ended up being not even close and nowhere near his 50/50, but he knew what he was doing in suggesting a 10k margin bet rather than actually backing his claims of a 50/50 chance.
His original position was that Reform would win easily. The 50/50 it’ll be close was to hedge once it became obvious the rest of us saw an easy Burnham win
Kellner: Makerfield is not just any old target seat. Two years ago, Reform’s 31.8 per cent share of the vote was the sixth highest in Britain. Indeed, its share was higher than one of the seats it actually won (South Basildon and East Thurrock, since you ask). If Reform is to win dozens, let alone hundreds, of seats at the next general election, it needs to win seats like Makerfield by a mile.
Since Sarah Pochin won Runcorn & Helsby for Reform in May last year, Reform has had high hopes of winning three parliamentary constituencies. It has fallen short in all three: Caerphilly (to Plaid Cymru for a seat in the Welsh Senedd), Gorton and Denton (to the Greens) and now Makerfield …
What is ominous for Nigel Farage is not just those bald facts, but the signs in all three contests of voters deliberately wanting Reform to lose, voting accordingly, and achieving their goal. Such seat-by-seat tactical voting at the next general election would cost Reform dear.
All roads lead to Burnham becoming PM so he really should accept the inevitable.
Politics is a cruel game but rightly or wrongly most of the public seem to viscerally loathe Starmer and it’s hard to see how you could turn that around .
Whether Burnhams better popularity can survive when he becomes PM is another matter .
That's a thumping defeat for the populist right. Well played Andy Burnham and the voters of Makerfield. A new dawn has broken, has it not. No, it hasn't, but it feels like a hugely significant moment.
Betting, I backed Andy @ 1.68 when the market opened because my instinct was he'd walk it. So I claim my place in the 'called it' club.
I too got 1.68, which must have been the odds when the market went up. Then later some more at 1.18, a bit of free money at crap odds. Also 1.48 on Labour >43.5%. A small punt on Restore below 5% at 5.70 was a losing bet
That's a thumping defeat for the populist right. Well played Andy Burnham and the voters of Makerfield. A new dawn has broken, has it not. No, it hasn't, but it feels like a hugely significant moment.
Burnham winning is exactly the result I wanted because he will almost certainly remove Starmer but also Farage and Lowe failing is an added bonus
The conservatives voted tactically and it looks as if more backed Burnham than Reform
Kemi had a good night winning Aberdeen South and a couple of locals defeating Reform and maybe this is a sign Reform has hit it's high water mark and can be beaten
I have said on many occasions I like Burnham and also Andy v Kemi will be very interesting
I expect he will get a honeymoon period and hopefully we can see the eclipse of the far right and far left over the months and years ahead
Comments
VILE right wing racism in action.
That is the right thing to do but it gets my back up.
He's proudly, eloquently and unashamedly from, and of, his place.
Maybe we've had too many from the same place?
But as I’ve said, I’ve never been bothered where the PM is from.
Whereas he's helped create an alternative nexus that elsewhere is actually important. And can be better and more successful?
Citizens of Somewhere and Levelling Up not just as slogans to win elections but actually as policies?
Like I said, I’m not against him running now for the sake of the country but I do think there’s something in not wanting to do the hard bit.
Lab 24,927 (54.81%)
Ref 15,696 (34.51%)
Rest 3,111 (6.84%)
Con 997 (2.19%)
Grn 308 (0.68%)
LD 163 (0.36%)
Binface 95 (0.21%)
Loony 45 (0.10%)
Ind Dyer 37 (0.08%)
Rejoin EU 35 (0.08%)
Climate 18 (0.04%)
Libertarian 18 (0.04%)
Ind Pownall 18 (0.04%)
Ind Gould 8 (0.02%)
binface 95
burnham 24937
libertarian 18
ind 37
climate 18
ind 8
mrlp 45
reform 15696
ind 18
restore 3111
green 308
rejoin 35
conservative 997
- Burnham 24,937
- Reform 15,696
- Restore 3,111
- Conservative 997
- Green 308
- LibDem 163
OtherWith Aberdeen South, not a good night for the identitarians.
I got on at 3.25 so a decent profit coming there too.
Thoughts and prayers for Leon.
Tories vs Labour seems back on the menu. I always thought the idea the Tories were dead was dumb.
Serious LOL....
Funny old world.
Levelling Up. Starts now.
Ref 15,696 (34.51%)
Rest 3,111 (6.84%)
Con 997 (2.19%)
Grn 308 (0.68%)
LD 163 (0.36%)
Binface 95 (0.21%)
Loony 45 (0.10%)
Ind Dyer 37 (0.08%)
Rejoin EU 35 (0.08%)
Climate 18 (0.04%)
Libertarian 18 (0.04%)
Ind Pownall 18 (0.04%)
Ind Gould 8 (0.02%)
Not even close.
Farage humbled
Lowe ridiculed
Kemi destroyed
Reform battrred
Restore pulped
Tories extinct
The Right pecking order in England established.
The future for Labour crystal clear
They won a Parliamentary seat in Scotland; Reform was beaten in England (emphasising that it's really Con v Lab, again); and they won a couple of Council seats from Reform.
Now, does one swallow make a summer? No.
But it has -nevertheless- been a good day for Kemi.
- by-elections tell you nothing whatever about the national picture
- how politicians do before they hold office tells you nothing about how they'll do once they hold it
- getting rid of a Labour leader is always more difficult than it looks
I'm guessing Starmer will announce his departure on Monday (it wouldn't surprise me if he tries to give himself another few months in the process). If he doesn't, Streeting will precipitate a leadership contest.
💣 The MAGA preacher is now quitting politics for good, he reveals in a bombshell interview where he apologizes to Donald Trump.
https://x.com/IbbetsonRoss/status/2067599935344714010
Today's "it's a cult" story.
Low turnout
Outpost
One topic
Safe tory seat before Flynn
Tories threw everything at it
Irrelevant
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5549477#Comment_5549477
Well done mate.
Your move...
So a July exit for Starmer?
The value is in the delta between betting markets and what is likely to happen.
Nice one @Andy_JS
Called it from the start.
I thought everyone else would get squeezed to shit, and that the total of the two would be 92-95%... Restore outperformed, but my bets were still a winner.
Perhaps perhaps perhaps.
So he tried to make a bet on a 10k margin line, which I rejected out of hand as 10k votes is extreme in a by election.
Ended up being not even close and nowhere near his 50/50, but he knew what he was doing in suggesting a 10k margin bet rather than actually backing his claims of a 50/50 chance.
Since Sarah Pochin won Runcorn & Helsby for Reform in May last year, Reform has had high hopes of winning three parliamentary constituencies. It has fallen short in all three: Caerphilly (to Plaid Cymru for a seat in the Welsh Senedd), Gorton and Denton (to the Greens) and now Makerfield …
What is ominous for Nigel Farage is not just those bald facts, but the signs in all three contests of voters deliberately wanting Reform to lose, voting accordingly, and achieving their goal. Such seat-by-seat tactical voting at the next general election would cost Reform dear.
All roads lead to Burnham becoming PM so he really should accept the inevitable.
Politics is a cruel game but rightly or wrongly most of the public seem to viscerally loathe Starmer and it’s hard to see how you could turn that around .
Whether Burnhams better popularity can survive when he becomes PM is another matter .
The conservatives voted tactically and it looks as if more backed Burnham than Reform
Kemi had a good night winning Aberdeen South and a couple of locals defeating Reform and maybe this is a sign Reform has hit it's high water mark and can be beaten
I have said on many occasions I like Burnham and also Andy v Kemi will be very interesting
I expect he will get a honeymoon period and hopefully we can see the eclipse of the far right and far left over the months and years ahead
Burnham is clearly going to walk it. Half the PLP were in Makerfield wanting to touch the hem of his garment.