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The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,687
    Andy_JS said:

    Nothing worse in sport than watching a slow, defensive football match when you've just watched an interesting one. And this Mexico v South Korea contest is pretty boring so far.

    It's the format too.
    If you both won your first game then four points ensures your qualification at the very worst as a best third place team.
    Why exhaust yourselves and risk injuries?
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,393
    Reports of incidents of Restore supporters attacking Asian taxi drivers reported to GMP

    VILE right wing racism in action.

  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,144
    Doesn't look like a recount, then.
  • The other thing about Burnham is that he was happy to sit out 2024 and the hard work to actually get Labour into government. Now he gets to ride in.

    That is the right thing to do but it gets my back up.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,365
    The SNP now have fewer/less MPs in the HoC than Reform UK. Not sure if that affects how many questions they can ask during PMQs.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,687

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    It's weird, Twitter kept assuring me Andy Bunrham wasn't even that popular, despite the fact I live in Manchester where he is really popular.

    Yes. A succession of folk with no ties to GM kept sternly informing people that it was not true.
    Even famous non-Labour types like cookie and Barty were basically told they were hallucinating.
    Always felt weird to me. I don’t like the man but I can’t deny he’s popular on a scale no Labour person has been for a very long time. Hence why he’s clearly their best choice.
    Why don't you like him out of interest?
    He seems the very definition of a likeable bloke. But maybe that's a NW thing.
    I never could get the Boris thing.
    He strikes me as completely empty and opportunistic and willing to do and say basically anything. He was an average minister and did terribly in two leadership contests (2015 being a particular highlight).

    I don’t care where the PM is from. It’s never bothered me.

    I don’t hate him. I just don’t warm to him. He seems like Sir Keir but more charismatic.
    Thanks. This is interesting. We don't actually have a NW poster who doesn't like him. Even those who disagree with his politics.
    He's proudly, eloquently and unashamedly from, and of, his place.
    Maybe we've had too many from the same place?
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    It's weird, Twitter kept assuring me Andy Bunrham wasn't even that popular, despite the fact I live in Manchester where he is really popular.

    Yes. A succession of folk with no ties to GM kept sternly informing people that it was not true.
    Even famous non-Labour types like cookie and Barty were basically told they were hallucinating.
    Always felt weird to me. I don’t like the man but I can’t deny he’s popular on a scale no Labour person has been for a very long time. Hence why he’s clearly their best choice.
    Why don't you like him out of interest?
    He seems the very definition of a likeable bloke. But maybe that's a NW thing.
    I never could get the Boris thing.
    He strikes me as completely empty and opportunistic and willing to do and say basically anything. He was an average minister and did terribly in two leadership contests (2015 being a particular highlight).

    I don’t care where the PM is from. It’s never bothered me.

    I don’t hate him. I just don’t warm to him. He seems like Sir Keir but more charismatic.
    Thanks. This is interesting. We don't actually have a NW poster who doesn't like him. Even those who disagree with his politics.
    He's proudly, eloquently and unashamedly from, and of, his place.
    Maybe we've had too many from the same place?
    He has a popularity I don’t understand but I totally acknowledge he has true believers in a way others don’t.

    But as I’ve said, I’ve never been bothered where the PM is from.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,365
    edited 1:52AM
    Someone tell Andy he can wear colours other than black.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,687

    The other thing about Burnham is that he was happy to sit out 2024 and the hard work to actually get Labour into government. Now he gets to ride in.

    That is the right thing to do but it gets my back up.

    But doesn't that betray a perhaps subconscious belief that the only things that really matter happen in London?
    Whereas he's helped create an alternative nexus that elsewhere is actually important. And can be better and more successful?
    Citizens of Somewhere and Levelling Up not just as slogans to win elections but actually as policies?
  • dixiedean said:

    The other thing about Burnham is that he was happy to sit out 2024 and the hard work to actually get Labour into government. Now he gets to ride in.

    That is the right thing to do but it gets my back up.

    But doesn't that betray a perhaps subconscious belief that the only things that really matter happen in London?
    Whereas he's helped create an alternative nexus that elsewhere is actually important. And can be better and more successful?
    Citizens of Somewhere and Levelling Up not just as slogans to win elections but actually as policies?
    Why didn’t he run in 2024? I can’t see what’s changed in two years for him.

    Like I said, I’m not against him running now for the sake of the country but I do think there’s something in not wanting to do the hard bit.
  • The result isn’t even going to be close. As was obvious from day one.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,365
    PMs spend hardly any time in their own constituencies. But voters don't usually seem to mind. They just like being able think of their MP as doing the top job.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,947
    For pity's sake Makerfield, declare the result, I wanna go to bed
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,610

    The result isn’t even going to be close. As was obvious from day one.

    Leading to the next PM, PM exit date, next Chancellor and Reeves exit date markets. Oh, and a new Mayor for the frozen north.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,144
    The Starmer loyalist on BBC1 sounds weary from flogging a dead horse.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,947
    Laura Kuenssberg is very good at what theatre folk called "vamping" - generating words indefinitely to fill an empty space. It's an essential part of live television presentation. But it is annoying if nothing happens.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,026
    Here we go!
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,144
    Andy B sandwiched between Binface and the fox guy, ever the photo opportunist.
  • Burnham has done it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,026
    24,937
  • Lol a huge lead
  • 10K majority almost.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,144
    Decent majority for the King Of The North.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,365
    edited 2:14AM
    Makerfield

    Lab 24,927 (54.81%)
    Ref 15,696 (34.51%)
    Rest 3,111 (6.84%)
    Con 997 (2.19%)
    Grn 308 (0.68%)
    LD 163 (0.36%)
    Binface 95 (0.21%)
    Loony 45 (0.10%)
    Ind Dyer 37 (0.08%)
    Rejoin EU 35 (0.08%)
    Climate 18 (0.04%)
    Libertarian 18 (0.04%)
    Ind Pownall 18 (0.04%)
    Ind Gould 8 (0.02%)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,026
    Oh, well. Congrats to Andy Burnham!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,947
    ld 163
    binface 95
    burnham 24937
    libertarian 18
    ind 37
    climate 18
    ind 8
    mrlp 45
    reform 15696
    ind 18
    restore 3111
    green 308
    rejoin 35
    conservative 997
  • Restore hahahaha
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,144

    Restore hahahaha

    I was assured by Twitter that they were going to win, though.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,026
    Andy_JS said:

    Lab 24,927
    Ref 15,696
    Rest 3,111
    Con 997
    Grn 308
    LD 163
    Binface 95
    Loony 45
    Ind Dyer 37
    Rejoin EU 35
    Climate 18
    Libertarian 18
    Ind Pownall 18
    Ind Gould 8

    Reform + Respect way lower than Burnham's vote.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,610
    Where's Andy Burnham gone?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,947
    edited 2:14AM
    Makerfield: parties getting over 100 votes
    • Burnham 24,937
    • Reform 15,696
    • Restore 3,111
    • Conservative 997
    • Green 308
    • LibDem 163
    Other
    • binface 95
    • libertarian 18
    • ind 37
    • climate 18
    • ind 8
    • mrlp 45
    • ind 18
    • rejoin 35
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,026
    Beeb saying 24,937
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,833
    Big Nige looking a little shrivelled tonight.

    With Aberdeen South, not a good night for the identitarians.
  • Well what I thought improbable before he found the seat, is now surely odds on. Burnham next PM.

    I got on at 3.25 so a decent profit coming there too.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,026
    viewcode said:

    Makerfield: parties getting over 100 votes

    • Burnham 24,937
    • Reform 15,696
    • Restore 3,111
    • Conservative 997
    • Green 308
    • LibDem 163
    Other
    • binface 95
    • mrlp 45
    • ind 37
    • rejoin 35
    • libertarian 18
    • climate 18
    • ind 18
    • ind 8

    Others In numerical order.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,365

    Beeb saying 24,937

    Listened to again and it definitely sounds like 27.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,557

    The result isn’t even going to be close. As was obvious from day one.

    Yep. Called this spot on from day one - Burnham was powered by the two biggest forces in British politics today: the anti-Starmer vote and the anti-Farage vote.

    Thoughts and prayers for Leon.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,026

    Lol a huge lead

    55%!
  • Restore at 7% is surely a big problem for Reform.

    Tories vs Labour seems back on the menu. I always thought the idea the Tories were dead was dumb.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,026
    Andy_JS said:

    Beeb saying 24,937

    Listened to again and it definitely sounds like 27.
    There were some cheers as she announced it, I couldn't make it out myself!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,557
    viewcode said:

    Makerfield: parties getting over 100 votes

    • Burnham 24,937
    • Reform 15,696
    • Restore 3,111
    • Conservative 997
    • Green 308
    • LibDem 163
    Other
    • binface 95
    • libertarian 18
    • ind 37
    • climate 18
    • ind 8
    • mrlp 45
    • ind 18
    • rejoin 35
    Rejoin 35.

    Serious LOL....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,365
    edited 2:18AM
    This type of personal vote reminds me of Canadian politician Jean Charest winning a big majority in his own constituency at the 1993 general election when at the same time his party the Progressive Conservatives were reduced from being in government to just 2 seats.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,557

    Big Nige looking a little shrivelled tonight.

    With Aberdeen South, not a good night for the identitarians.

    Fuck Farage.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,365
    At least we didn't have to wait until 5am for results tonight, thanks to all of the majorities being large ones.
  • Large polling miss for Burnham
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,026

    Restore at 7% is surely a big problem for Reform.

    Tories vs Labour seems back on the menu. I always thought the idea the Tories were dead was dumb.

    Just 2% in Makerfield?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,687
    Andy_JS said:

    This type of personal vote reminds me of Canadian politician Jean Charest winning a big majority in his own constituency at the 1993 general election when at the same time his party the Progressive Conservatives were reduced from being in government to just 2 seats.

    Jean Charest was a Liberal.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,802

    Big Nige looking a little shrivelled tonight.

    With Aberdeen South, not a good night for the identitarians.

    Fuck Farage.
    An excellent night for the two Great Parties of State.

    Funny old world.
  • Swing of 3% to Labour since GE2024. Burnham has something.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,687
    Called it from the moment it was announced.
    Levelling Up. Starts now.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,687
    My bet on 55%+ fell sadly short.
  • Surely a coronation is also odds on. Burnham has shown he’s an electoral winner and it wasn’t even close in a seat Starmer and everyone else is guaranteed to lose.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,365
    How long will Starmer hold out for? Maybe it'll take some more cabinet resignations.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,095
    So in the end a clear win for Burnham with a majority bigger than the combined Reform and Restore votes. He will now say he has proved he can give Labour a bounce and use that as a mandate to challenge Starmer
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,687
    Lab 24,927 (54.81%)
    Ref 15,696 (34.51%)
    Rest 3,111 (6.84%)
    Con 997 (2.19%)
    Grn 308 (0.68%)
    LD 163 (0.36%)
    Binface 95 (0.21%)
    Loony 45 (0.10%)
    Ind Dyer 37 (0.08%)
    Rejoin EU 35 (0.08%)
    Climate 18 (0.04%)
    Libertarian 18 (0.04%)
    Ind Pownall 18 (0.04%)
    Ind Gould 8 (0.02%)

    Not even close.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,947
    If it wasn't for Aberdeen South this would have been a bad night for the Tories. But with it, it saves Kemi for another day.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,947
    dixiedean said:

    My bet on 55%+ fell sadly short.

    My sympathies. Given that his lead was over 20%, it was darn close.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,365
    What Reform really needs is by-elections in the East Midlands, West Midlands, East Anglia. Greater Manchester just isn't as good for them as those areas.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,331
    viewcode said:

    If it wasn't for Aberdeen South this would have been a bad night for the Tories. But with it, it saves Kemi for another day.

    They also did well in tonight's locals taking 2 seats from Reform
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,393
    Burnham beats the tawdry British Right by 6000 votes

    Farage humbled
    Lowe ridiculed
    Kemi destroyed

    Reform battrred
    Restore pulped
    Tories extinct

    The Right pecking order in England established.

    The future for Labour crystal clear

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,075
    Well, no pressure Andy. Don’t fuck it up
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,576

    viewcode said:

    If it wasn't for Aberdeen South this would have been a bad night for the Tories. But with it, it saves Kemi for another day.

    They also did well in tonight's locals taking 2 seats from Reform
    I'd argue today has been an excellent day for the Conservatives.

    They won a Parliamentary seat in Scotland; Reform was beaten in England (emphasising that it's really Con v Lab, again); and they won a couple of Council seats from Reform.

    Now, does one swallow make a summer? No.

    But it has -nevertheless- been a good day for Kemi.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,576

    Well, no pressure Andy. Don’t fuck it up

    My understanding is that he's content to stay a backbench MP, until SKS calls him up for a minor mininsterial role.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,576

    Well, no pressure Andy. Don’t fuck it up

    My understanding is that he's content to stay a backbench MP, until SKS calls him up for a minor mininsterial role.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,365
    Brixian59 said:

    Burnham beats the tawdry British Right by 6000 votes

    Farage humbled
    Lowe ridiculed
    Kemi destroyed

    Reform battrred
    Restore pulped
    Tories extinct

    The Right pecking order in England established.

    The future for Labour crystal clear

    "Kemi destroyed" when the Tories have just won Aberdeen South easily?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,374
    Very good performance by Burnham, but remember three rules of British politics:

    - by-elections tell you nothing whatever about the national picture
    - how politicians do before they hold office tells you nothing about how they'll do once they hold it
    - getting rid of a Labour leader is always more difficult than it looks
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,610
    Fishing said:

    Very good performance by Burnham, but remember three rules of British politics:

    - by-elections tell you nothing whatever about the national picture
    - how politicians do before they hold office tells you nothing about how they'll do once they hold it
    - getting rid of a Labour leader is always more difficult than it looks

    Local elections, however recent, told us nothing about parliamentary elections.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,610

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour 1.01 in Makerfield on Betfair. £10,000 available which suggests punters already on at bigger prices are looking to cash out and go to bed. Reform 48.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.258206408

    Betfair Exchange haven't paid out on Aberdeen South yet. Maybe their staffer decided to go to bed and we have to wait until tomorrow.
    Betfair has been understaffed for years. Probably there's one person working overnight and he's tied up watching the football and cleaning the toilets.
    The football is over, the toilets immaculate, and Betfair has started to settle the by-election markets.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,044
    Fishing said:

    Very good performance by Burnham, but remember three rules of British politics:

    - by-elections tell you nothing whatever about the national picture
    - how politicians do before they hold office tells you nothing about how they'll do once they hold it
    - getting rid of a Labour leader is always more difficult than it looks

    On the third point it now looks piss easy, so it will possibly be of only moderate difficulty.

    I'm guessing Starmer will announce his departure on Monday (it wouldn't surprise me if he tries to give himself another few months in the process). If he doesn't, Streeting will precipitate a leadership contest.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,044
    Jackson Lahmeyer, the Trump-backed pastor exposed over intimate texts with a former Miss Oklahoma, has gone further, confessing to the Daily Mail: 'In 2022 I cheated on my wife.'
    💣 The MAGA preacher is now quitting politics for good, he reveals in a bombshell interview where he apologizes to Donald Trump.

    https://x.com/IbbetsonRoss/status/2067599935344714010

    Today's "it's a cult" story.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,393
    Andy_JS said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Burnham beats the tawdry British Right by 6000 votes

    Farage humbled
    Lowe ridiculed
    Kemi destroyed

    Reform battrred
    Restore pulped
    Tories extinct

    The Right pecking order in England established.

    The future for Labour crystal clear

    "Kemi destroyed" when the Tories have just won Aberdeen South easily?
    Oil tpwn
    Low turnout
    Outpost
    One topic
    Safe tory seat before Flynn
    Tories threw everything at it
    Irrelevant
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,365
    If Starmer wasn't so tin-eared he'd consider resigning tomorrow, or later today.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,374
    Brixian59 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Burnham beats the tawdry British Right by 6000 votes

    Farage humbled
    Lowe ridiculed
    Kemi destroyed

    Reform battrred
    Restore pulped
    Tories extinct

    The Right pecking order in England established.

    The future for Labour crystal clear

    "Kemi destroyed" when the Tories have just won Aberdeen South easily?
    Oil tpwn
    Low turnout
    Outpost
    One topic
    Safe tory seat before Flynn
    Tories threw everything at it
    Irrelevant
    Am I the only one who thinks that if Labour had done well in Aberdeen and lost Makerfield, you'd be posting the exact opposite?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,475
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,761
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC now saying the Tories claim they have won Aberdeen South and gained the seat from the SNP

    Most punters on Betfair got this one wrong.
    Never bet against @Andy_JS

    Well done mate.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,761
    Andy_JS said:

    Makerfield

    Lab 24,927 (54.81%)
    Ref 15,696 (34.51%)
    Rest 3,111 (6.84%)
    Con 997 (2.19%)
    Grn 308 (0.68%)
    LD 163 (0.36%)
    Binface 95 (0.21%)
    Loony 45 (0.10%)
    Ind Dyer 37 (0.08%)
    Rejoin EU 35 (0.08%)
    Climate 18 (0.04%)
    Libertarian 18 (0.04%)
    Ind Pownall 18 (0.04%)
    Ind Gould 8 (0.02%)

    So the 55%+ voteshare bet tip was a really good one by @TheScreamingEagles even though it narrowly lost.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,269
    edited 4:20AM
    Over to Sir Kier!

    Your move...
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