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The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,199
edited June 18 in General
The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com

The New Statesman reports thatExclusive: Andy Burnham has the nominations to trigger a leadership challengeBurnham plans to present the list to Starmer to encourage him to stand down without a contesthttps://t.co/wfjWCJ8HiJ

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,884
    First?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,878
    First unlike CON in Makerfield. Maybe like CON in Aberdeen South 👍
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,878
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First?

    I thought you were having an early night?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,884
    londonpubman said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First?

    I thought you were having an early night?
    I am, going to bed now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,639
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    londonpubman said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First?

    I thought you were having an early night?
    I am, going to bed now.
    Yeh, good idea. No point staying up for this one.

  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,878
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    londonpubman said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First?

    I thought you were having an early night?
    I am, going to bed now.
    Have a good night, possibly a big day tomorrow.

    Archer 50 in the Test ? 👍
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 640
    londonpubman said:

    First unlike CON in Makerfield. Maybe like CON in Aberdeen South 👍

    Seems like Aberdeen South is going to be the close one tonight. I have bet on Con because I think they like their oil more than they hate us Tories.
    I have also bet big on Labour in Mac and Binface beating the Loonies. I have more confidence in my Binface one than the Con Aderdeen bet.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,894
    I mean it is going to be a little bit funny if Burnham doesn't win now, isn't it?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,878
    Anyone for Canada v Qatar??
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,101
    edited June 18
    solarflare said:

    I mean it is going to be a little bit funny if Burnham doesn't win now, isn't it?

    Even on my side of the fence that would raise a hearty laugh. Starmer is toast either way.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,639

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    Polls have closed in Makerfield. Spent the day here. My entirely unscientific predictions:

    a) Andy Burnham will win
    b) It will not be quite as close as some people think
    c) Restore have been squeezed a little. But will still be close to double figures.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,894
    edited June 18
    londonpubman said:

    Anyone for Canada v Qatar??

    The unstoppable force meets the immoveable object in a match described as being on this Thursday.

    Certainly finding psychologically that watching a random match at 11pm is much easier than one starting at midnight.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,639
    Bastani: "A Green activist told me the same. “Everyone had an Andy Burnham story”. "


  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,101
    edited June 18
    rottenborough said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    Polls have closed in Makerfield. Spent the day here. My entirely unscientific predictions:

    a) Andy Burnham will win
    b) It will not be quite as close as some people think
    c) Restore have been squeezed a little. But will still be close to double figures.

    F**k, Hodges has spoken! Time to shovel cash on Rob Kenyon?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,364
    edited June 18
    Fairly optimistic about my predictions from earlier in the day.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,101
    Andy_JS said:

    Cautiously optmistic about my predictions from earlier in the day.

    What were they? Reform, Con, SNP?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,639
    Mexicanpete said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cautiously optmistic about my predictions from earlier in the day.

    What were they? Reform, Con, SNP?
    Labour in Makerfield by a nose iirc
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,639

    Jessica Elgot
    @jessicaelgot
    ·
    1h
    Whatever the spin tomorrow, if Burnham wins he will have done so because thousands of voters who voted Reform *last month* are now voting Labour. And thousands of people who might prefer other parties are voting tactically to stop Reform. That will be the proof of concept.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 22,126
    rottenborough said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cautiously optmistic about my predictions from earlier in the day.

    What were they? Reform, Con, SNP?
    Labour in Makerfield by a nose iirc
    I was a bit pessimistic on the basis of my 3 days there, but necessarily I could only cover some of the wards. It looks as though Burnham will get a decent margin.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,734
    edited June 18
    I suspect Burnham will struggle to keep his new seat at the General Election. But that's a problem for later, if he does win it now.

    Which thinking about it, might be an impetus for electoral reform, that he professes to support
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,365
    rottenborough said:


    Jessica Elgot
    @jessicaelgot
    ·
    1h
    Whatever the spin tomorrow, if Burnham wins he will have done so because thousands of voters who voted Reform *last month* are now voting Labour. And thousands of people who might prefer other parties are voting tactically to stop Reform. That will be the proof of concept.

    The concept that people near or in Manchester like Andy Burnham. Not sure how this translates to the rest of the country. The good-cheer mayor act doesn't translate, as Boris found out.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,144
    ScotPolTwitter saying Tories have maybe taken Aberdeen South.

    Looking like an Andy For Us win in Makerfield.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,599
    FPT
    rottenborough said:

    Flatlander said:

    Whilst we await the start of Andy Burnham's cautionary tale of 'be careful what you wish for'

    Here's my picture of the day - acorn collecting at the Major Oak:


    We managed to grow a good number of seedlings on from said acorns for conservation planting, one of which may have ended up in my garden.

    Climate change, soil compaction, old age, or fungus? I don't suppose anyone is quite sure yet. It might have been better to coppice it rather than propping up the limbs. It was almost certainly coppiced in the past.

    Hot summers and soil compaction most likely.

    Good luck with the seedlings.
    Not compaction. That was identified as an issue about 30 years ago and they put the low fence up to stop people crowding around the tree. Apart from special projects like the acorn collecting.

    The hot summer last year has done for a lot of trees but in almost all cases they were getting to the end of their lives anyway

    There were two huge silver birch in my Mums garden that my Dad planted when they built the house 56 years ago. We just took them down after they died last summer. But silver birch generally only live 50 to 69 years anyway.

    The old myth about oaks was that they were 400 years in the growing, 400 years in the living and 400 yearsvin the dying. That might be about right for the Major Oak although in a lot of recent studies they found it might be nearer to 600 years for each stage. It is difficult to tell because many of the older oaks hollow out which prevents counting tree rings.

    But the area around Sherwood at Edwinstow has a lot of datable archaeological features under and over the trees so it is possible to get reasonable dates on a lot of them

    In the end the Major Oak looks like it just reached its biblical three score and ten and died of natural causes.


  • Jim_the_LurkerJim_the_Lurker Posts: 331
    edited June 18
    rottenborough said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    Polls have closed in Makerfield. Spent the day here. My entirely unscientific predictions:

    a) Andy Burnham will win
    b) It will not be quite as close as some people think
    c) Restore have been squeezed a little. But will still be close to double figures.

    To be fair to the bloke he manages to get paid for that sort of bland insight.
    A) Is largely assumed and in line with published polling.
    B ) Is so imprecise as to be meaningless - some people may think it will be a Burnham walkover, some may think Reform will be close - what is he really predicting?
    C) A genuine prediction - Restore to get 5 to 9.9% - let’s see if that happens. [EDIT: Although I have just noticed that he said Restore “close to double figures”, does he reckon they’ll get less than ten votes? Or is he not the most precise Journalist]

    Meanwhile I am just having a beer listening to music.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,365
    DoubleCarpet said:

    Do we have expected declaration times?

    Also put a tenner on Ed Miliband for next CoE at 2.32.

    Hope everyone is well - health has been a bit iffy esp last few weeks, infected eczema (staph aureus) and went to hospital Monday thinking might need to go on IV drip.

    Luckily not, blood tests all good, currently on both steroids and antibiotics.

    Feels a bit life-changing, hopefully in a good way, started the steroids two days ago and visible improvement already, but a long way to go.

    Thanks,

    DC

    Might be a factor in persuading the NHS to pay for you to have a modern biologic treatment. I'm on one for psoriasis, and it's cleared 100%.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 6,007
    edited June 18
    FPT:
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Flatlander said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Flatlander said:

    Whilst we await the start of Andy Burnham's cautionary tale of 'be careful what you wish for'

    Here's my picture of the day - acorn collecting at the Major Oak:


    We managed to grow a good number of seedlings on from said acorns for conservation planting, one of which may have ended up in my garden.

    Climate change, soil compaction, old age, or fungus? I don't suppose anyone is quite sure yet. It might have been better to coppice it rather than propping up the limbs. It was almost certainly coppiced in the past.

    For many trees in many situations, the best thing to do is to start again, as a steadily rolling programme. Everything has a season; a time to plant and a time to pluck up and whatnot.

    A few weeks ago, one of the (possibly 1930s) street trees in our (definitely 1930s) street keeled over; it was the most exciting thing to happen in our road since Clap For Carers. But the gaps in the pattern are becoming increasingly obvious. But it feels very British to unsucessfully try to preserve old things beyond their lifespan and not create things that future generations might enjoy as old things.
    Yes, I think that's fair. It is a disguised form of short term thinking.

    The Major Oak would have been part of a woodland pasture, with only scattered trees, many of which would have been managed by coppicing. It became encircled by woodland only within the last 100 years or so, and during that time has probably been over-preserved as well as over-visited. The whole context in which the vast majority of its life was lived has gone, so we were preserving something that was already lost, much like keeping a building beyond its purpose.

    If you want to see what it should have looked like, Windsor Great Park is probably your best bet.
    Not according to the archaeology.
    That's what I've always been told, but it could be wrong...

    Early photographs of the tree show it in a parkland setting. Is there evidence that the tree predates the creation of the pasture?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,599
    Flatlander said:

    FPT:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Flatlander said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Flatlander said:

    Whilst we await the start of Andy Burnham's cautionary tale of 'be careful what you wish for'

    Here's my picture of the day - acorn collecting at the Major Oak:


    We managed to grow a good number of seedlings on from said acorns for conservation planting, one of which may have ended up in my garden.

    Climate change, soil compaction, old age, or fungus? I don't suppose anyone is quite sure yet. It might have been better to coppice it rather than propping up the limbs. It was almost certainly coppiced in the past.

    For many trees in many situations, the best thing to do is to start again, as a steadily rolling programme. Everything has a season; a time to plant and a time to pluck up and whatnot.

    A few weeks ago, one of the (possibly 1930s) street trees in our (definitely 1930s) street keeled over; it was the most exciting thing to happen in our road since Clap For Carers. But the gaps in the pattern are becoming increasingly obvious. But it feels very British to unsucessfully try to preserve old things beyond their lifespan and not create things that future generations might enjoy as old things.
    Yes, I think that's fair. It is a disguised form of short term thinking.

    The Major Oak would have been part of a woodland pasture, with only scattered trees, many of which would have been managed by coppicing. It became encircled by woodland only within the last 100 years or so, and during that time has probably been over-preserved as well as over-visited. The whole context in which the vast majority of its life was lived has gone, so we were preserving something that was already lost, much like keeping a building beyond its purpose.

    If you want to see what it should have looked like, Windsor Great Park is probably your best bet.
    Not according to the archaeology.
    That's what I've always been told, but it could be wrong...

    Early photographs of the tree show it in a parkland setting. Is there evidence that the tree predates the creation of the pasture?
    Yes. Therefore numerous archaeological features dating to the late saxon through to the Tudor period which are used to date the trees and which are used along with palynolgy to rebuild a palaeoenvironment picture through the ages.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,380
    Lots of very funny outcomes available tonight - Restore v Reform internecine warfare if a split votes puts Burnham in is just one of them.

    The Scottish by-elections are interesting too - my pet theory is that SNP support is quite soft with a lack of any reasonable alternative being the main driver of their continuing success. Where the Lib Dems were plausible at the Holyrood election they did better than I expected. In Aberdeen South, the alternative would be Labour (not plausible), so I can imagine them hoovering up quite a bit of that vote. A Conservative win would be very impressive.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,393
    Feck me the BBC have an all night special on the by elections. Gonna be stretched a bit thin…
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 918
    Almost as exciting as the Dunny-on-the-Wold byelection.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,601
    @kevinrothrock.me‬

    This video appears to confirm it was a Russian air-defense missile — not a Ukrainian drone — that blew up that Moscow refinery’s storage tank today, creating the "flying saucer" footage. (This video was shared on Telegram by Russian military expert Yan Matveev.)

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinrothrock.me/post/3moln6nwpd22q
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,402
    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/2067733106166042856

    Sarah Pochin on GB News: 'I think what you’ll see tonight is a very strong turnout for Reform…
    'If we get a good strong turnout, we come a strong second, we’ll be very happy with our performance.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,097
    Expectations management from Restore

    https://x.com/cfdownes_/status/2067700628562842104

    “We’re begrudgingly voting Reform on this occasion but we support Restore and will vote for you in 2029.”

    This was the story on the majority of Reform-supporting doors we knocked on.

    Make of that what you will.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,465
    Stuartinromford said:

    Reform's best ever by election score was 38.2% in Runcorn last year.

    I suppose it could happen- Burnham 50- Reform 40- Restore 5- Others 5. But if Reform can't win in a seat where the demographics (old, white homeowners living near more decaying towns and a bustling city in the distance) are so perfect... 300 seats seems a long long way away.

    I think Reform would likely have won a Makerfield by-election at a canter had Burnham not been the Labour candidate, so it doesn't really tell us much about their prospects if Burnham prevails. (Equally, if Reform do win, it's not a big deal if an opposition party wins their 30-something target seat in a by-election.)

    The by-election matters because of the consequence for the Labour leadership.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,075
    williamglenn said:

    Expectations management from Restore

    https://x.com/cfdownes_/status/2067700628562842104

    “We’re begrudgingly voting Reform on this occasion but we support Restore and will vote for you in 2029.”

    This was the story on the majority of Reform-supporting doors we knocked on.

    Make of that what you will.

    Sounds like bollocks
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,380
    edited June 18
    Eabhal said:

    Lots of very funny outcomes available tonight - Restore v Reform internecine warfare if a split votes puts Burnham in is just one of them.

    The Scottish by-elections are interesting too - my pet theory is that SNP support is quite soft with a lack of any reasonable alternative being the main driver of their continuing success. Where the Lib Dems were plausible at the Holyrood election they did better than I expected. In Aberdeen South, the alternative would be Labour (not plausible), so I can imagine them hoovering up quite a bit of that vote. A Conservative win would be very impressive.

    Also to add that the whole O&G thing in Aberdeen is important, but perhaps a bit overdone? It's a bit like when people assume that everyone in the countryside is a farmer, when they typically represent less than 10% even in the most rural constituencies. O&G workers come in from all over the north-east of Scotland (and much further) and Aberdeen itself isn't markedly different to other Scottish cities - it's Aberdeenshire that is weirdly rich for a rural area. It depends on whether O&G has the same symbolism as CalMac ferries do in the Highlands.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,687
    Tory Kevin Hollinrake thinks Burnham has won.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,465
    Scott_xP said:

    @kevinrothrock.me‬

    This video appears to confirm it was a Russian air-defense missile — not a Ukrainian drone — that blew up that Moscow refinery’s storage tank today, creating the "flying saucer" footage. (This video was shared on Telegram by Russian military expert Yan Matveev.)

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinrothrock.me/post/3moln6nwpd22q

    That's the fifth video from a different angle of this event that I've seen now. The amount of video footage of this war continues to be insane.

    Very clear shot of the air defence missile hitting the tank there.
  • CharlieSharkCharlieShark Posts: 472
    Conservatives will be hoping this is a good omen for tonight:


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    3m
    Sweyne Park & Grange (Rochford) Council By-Election Result:

    🌳 CON: 56.1% (+39.3)
    ➡️ RFM: 24.8% (-14.9)
    🔶 LDM: 13.2% (-3.3)
    🌍 GRN: 4.2% (-3.9)
    🌹 LAB: 1.7% (-1.9)

    No Loc (-15.2) as previous.

    Conservative GAIN from Reform.
    Changes w/ 2026.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,392
    dixiedean said:

    Tory Kevin Hollinrake thinks Burnham has won.

    Of course he does.

    Reverse psychology
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,402
    I hear Susan Hall has won in Makerfield
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 594
    Sweyne Park and Grange, Rochford

    Conservative GAIN from Reform UK

    🌳 CON: 56.1% (+39.3)
    ➡️ RFM: 24.8% (-14.7)
    🔶 LDM: 13.2% (-3.2)
    🌍 GRN: 4.2% (-4.3)
    🌹 LAB: 1.7% (-1.9)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,380
    LostPassword said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kevinrothrock.me‬

    This video appears to confirm it was a Russian air-defense missile — not a Ukrainian drone — that blew up that Moscow refinery’s storage tank today, creating the "flying saucer" footage. (This video was shared on Telegram by Russian military expert Yan Matveev.)

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinrothrock.me/post/3moln6nwpd22q

    That's the fifth video from a different angle of this event that I've seen now. The amount of video footage of this war continues to be insane.

    Very clear shot of the air defence missile hitting the tank there.
    Uncanny valley - too clear? Looks like something out of a budget war film. Anyway, can't wait till our own anti-drone missiles knock out Tower Bridge or something.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,095
    Glum SNP sources saying it looks like the Reform vote has collapsed to the Tories as they cast tactical votes to beat the SNP in Aberdeen South

    https://x.com/dmscotpol/status/2067734488499593287?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,097
    Substack from Ben Walker:

    https://britainelects.substack.com/p/the-greatest-gamble

    A former organiser for Labour takes me aside.

    “If this doesn’t work. If knocking on doors in the way we have doesn’t work. If sending a literal horde of activists for ‘Andy bloody Burnham’ doesn’t work, then we’re screwed. This is life or death for the Labour party.”
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,364
    edited June 18
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    ScotPolTwitter saying Tories have maybe taken Aberdeen South.

    Looking like an Andy For Us win in Makerfield.

    The odds on that were fairly high even today, ie. Aberdeen South.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,402
    Was this the night Reform’s dream of government died
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,042
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First?

    A photo for a future header:
    https://x.com/EastEndJoe/status/2067673186699800747
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 918
    FF43 said:

    I suspect Burnham will struggle to keep his new seat at the General Election. But that's a problem for later, if he does win it now.

    If he's PM at that point, he only loses it as part of a wider Labour wipeout.

    If he hasn't achieved his dearest ambition, would he even bother standing?

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,364
    edited June 18
    williamglenn said:

    Substack from Ben Walker:

    https://britainelects.substack.com/p/the-greatest-gamble

    A former organiser for Labour takes me aside.

    “If this doesn’t work. If knocking on doors in the way we have doesn’t work. If sending a literal horde of activists for ‘Andy bloody Burnham’ doesn’t work, then we’re screwed. This is life or death for the Labour party.”

    We've had this before, in south London in 2015 for Ed. Labour activists convinced they were going to win.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 594
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Was this the night Reform’s dream of government died

    Unlikely, unless they do really badly. You're hopelessly carried away by the idea that AB is somehow gonna save this government. Not gonna happen.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,599
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Lots of very funny outcomes available tonight - Restore v Reform internecine warfare if a split votes puts Burnham in is just one of them.

    The Scottish by-elections are interesting too - my pet theory is that SNP support is quite soft with a lack of any reasonable alternative being the main driver of their continuing success. Where the Lib Dems were plausible at the Holyrood election they did better than I expected. In Aberdeen South, the alternative would be Labour (not plausible), so I can imagine them hoovering up quite a bit of that vote. A Conservative win would be very impressive.

    Also to add that the whole O&G thing in Aberdeen is important, but perhaps a bit overdone? It's a bit like when people assume that everyone in the countryside is a farmer, when they typically represent less than 10% even in the most rural constituencies. O&G workers come in from all over the north-east of Scotland (and much further) and Aberdeen itself isn't markedly different to other Scottish cities - it's Aberdeenshire that is weirdly rich for a rural area. It depends on whether O&G has the same symbolism as CalMac ferries do in the Highlands.
    Nah. The whole of the Aberdeen economy lives or dies on oil and gas. You only have to look at Union Street or Rosemount to see how disastrous the last few years have been for the city.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,934
    scampi25 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Was this the night Reform’s dream of government died

    Unlikely, unless they do really badly. You're hopelessly carried away by the idea that AB is somehow gonna save this government. Not gonna happen.
    Improbable, but better than nothing, probably.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,402
    scampi25 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Was this the night Reform’s dream of government died

    Unlikely, unless they do really badly. You're hopelessly carried away by the idea that AB is somehow gonna save this government. Not gonna happen.
    I think Labour should be favourites for most seats. That’s all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,934
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Was this the night Reform’s dream of government died

    No. At the moment they are still in with a good shot of replacing/subsuming the Tories, in which case they may have a shot even if 2029 is not their year (it should be hard to overturn such a large majority, but of course we have seen that recently).
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,599
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Was this the night Reform’s dream of government died

    Nice as that would be, This was a tough ask against such a prominent anti-Starmer figure. These are pretty unique circumstances for a BE.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,097
    More drones on their way to Moscow.

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2067712291366113695
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 6,007
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Flatlander said:

    FPT:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Flatlander said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Flatlander said:

    Whilst we await the start of Andy Burnham's cautionary tale of 'be careful what you wish for'

    Here's my picture of the day - acorn collecting at the Major Oak:


    We managed to grow a good number of seedlings on from said acorns for conservation planting, one of which may have ended up in my garden.

    Climate change, soil compaction, old age, or fungus? I don't suppose anyone is quite sure yet. It might have been better to coppice it rather than propping up the limbs. It was almost certainly coppiced in the past.

    For many trees in many situations, the best thing to do is to start again, as a steadily rolling programme. Everything has a season; a time to plant and a time to pluck up and whatnot.

    A few weeks ago, one of the (possibly 1930s) street trees in our (definitely 1930s) street keeled over; it was the most exciting thing to happen in our road since Clap For Carers. But the gaps in the pattern are becoming increasingly obvious. But it feels very British to unsucessfully try to preserve old things beyond their lifespan and not create things that future generations might enjoy as old things.
    Yes, I think that's fair. It is a disguised form of short term thinking.

    The Major Oak would have been part of a woodland pasture, with only scattered trees, many of which would have been managed by coppicing. It became encircled by woodland only within the last 100 years or so, and during that time has probably been over-preserved as well as over-visited. The whole context in which the vast majority of its life was lived has gone, so we were preserving something that was already lost, much like keeping a building beyond its purpose.

    If you want to see what it should have looked like, Windsor Great Park is probably your best bet.
    Not according to the archaeology.
    That's what I've always been told, but it could be wrong...

    Early photographs of the tree show it in a parkland setting. Is there evidence that the tree predates the creation of the pasture?
    Yes. Therefore numerous archaeological features dating to the late saxon through to the Tudor period which are used to date the trees and which are used along with palynolgy to rebuild a palaeoenvironment picture through the ages.
    Thanks. I shall do a bit of digging...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,557
    When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,095
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Was this the night Reform’s dream of government died

    Nice as that would be, This was a tough ask against such a prominent anti-Starmer figure. These are pretty unique circumstances for a BE.
    Reform vote collapsing to the Tories in Aberdeen South and leaking heavily to Restore in Makerfield as Burnham wins would be a poor night for Farage
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,095
    edited June 18
    MarqueeMark said:

    When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...

    Hartlepool in 2021 during Boris bounce.

    Last time the Tories gained a seat in a Scottish by election though was 1967 so huge boost for Kemi if the Aberdeen South reports are correct
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,934
    MarqueeMark said:

    When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...

    When that SNP lady crossed the floor? Odd times.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,402
    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...

    Hartlepool in 2021.

    Last time the Tories gained a seat in a Scottish by election though was 1948 so huge boost for Kemi if the Aberdeen South reports are correct
    Ah when Pb told me I was a muppet for saying that no Johnson would not be PM for 10 years
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,939
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    scampi25 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Was this the night Reform’s dream of government died

    Unlikely, unless they do really badly. You're hopelessly carried away by the idea that AB is somehow gonna save this government. Not gonna happen.
    I think Labour should be favourites for most seats. That’s all.
    And per the betting they are.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,380
    edited June 18
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Lots of very funny outcomes available tonight - Restore v Reform internecine warfare if a split votes puts Burnham in is just one of them.

    The Scottish by-elections are interesting too - my pet theory is that SNP support is quite soft with a lack of any reasonable alternative being the main driver of their continuing success. Where the Lib Dems were plausible at the Holyrood election they did better than I expected. In Aberdeen South, the alternative would be Labour (not plausible), so I can imagine them hoovering up quite a bit of that vote. A Conservative win would be very impressive.

    Also to add that the whole O&G thing in Aberdeen is important, but perhaps a bit overdone? It's a bit like when people assume that everyone in the countryside is a farmer, when they typically represent less than 10% even in the most rural constituencies. O&G workers come in from all over the north-east of Scotland (and much further) and Aberdeen itself isn't markedly different to other Scottish cities - it's Aberdeenshire that is weirdly rich for a rural area. It depends on whether O&G has the same symbolism as CalMac ferries do in the Highlands.
    Nah. The whole of the Aberdeen economy lives or dies on oil and gas. You only have to look at Union Street or Rosemount to see how disastrous the last few years have been for the city.
    Union Street has been a disaster for my entire life. I think you would have a point on house prices though, which have cratered.

    My general point is that Aberdeen still votes like a normal Scottish city, on a left:right ratio of at least 2:1. That’s a lot to overcome.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,392
    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...

    Hartlepool in 2021.

    Last time the Tories gained a seat in a Scottish by election though was 1948 so huge boost for Kemi if the Aberdeen South reports are correct
    It would be a shock if Tories didn't win

    SNP rocked by scandal and popular MP gone

    Labour deeply unpopular everywhere

    Reform not that strong further north

    Not LD or Green territory.

    Tories have abandoned English By Elections on North thrown massive effort in to Aberdeen

    Badenoch been 3 times.

    If SNP held would be a big shock
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,402
    I think somebody posted here that Burnham will have a decent honeymoon because people don’t want another crap PM.

    Assuming he doesn’t step on any stupid rakes I think that accurate.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 6,082
    HYUFD said:

    Glum SNP sources saying it looks like the Reform vote has collapsed to the Tories as they cast tactical votes to beat the SNP in Aberdeen South

    https://x.com/dmscotpol/status/2067734488499593287?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    Aside from that, it's brought to mind this scene from Alfred Hitchcock's 39 Steps :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aalwXQINtio

    Getting on for 100 years old. And somehow still relevant.

    100 years old. It still strikes me sometimes that films I've watched at the cinema, records I've listened to are a a 100 years (or more!) old. I also still put a hand up in the vote for recording sound as the biggest cultural leap for... millennia?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,934
    edited June 18
    HYUFD said:

    Glum SNP sources saying it looks like the Reform vote has collapsed to the Tories as they cast tactical votes to beat the SNP in Aberdeen South

    https://x.com/dmscotpol/status/2067734488499593287?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    That would be positive, though I'll believe it when I see it - Reform are so aggressively anti-Tory sometimes I'd be surprised if the core Reform vote, such as it is, would transfer back to the Tories even though the other direction happens a lot.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,749
    edited June 18
    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Glum SNP sources saying it looks like the Reform vote has collapsed to the Tories as they cast tactical votes to beat the SNP in Aberdeen South

    https://x.com/dmscotpol/status/2067734488499593287?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    Aside from that, it's brought to mind this scene from Alfred Hitchcock's 39 Steps :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aalwXQINtio

    Getting on for 100 years old. And somehow still relevant.

    100 years old. It still strikes me sometimes that films I've watched at the cinema, records I've listened to are a a 100 years (or more!) old. I also still put a hand up in the vote for recording sound as the biggest cultural leap for... millennia?
    I’d have to go with moving images. To see someone’s animated face, long after they’ve died… it’s a link to the past and to other people that you don’t get with anything else.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,380
    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...

    Hartlepool in 2021.

    Last time the Tories gained a seat in a Scottish by election though was 1948 so huge boost for Kemi if the Aberdeen South reports are correct
    It would be a shock if Tories didn't win

    SNP rocked by scandal and popular MP gone

    Labour deeply unpopular everywhere

    Reform not that strong further north

    Not LD or Green territory.

    Tories have abandoned English By Elections on North thrown massive effort in to Aberdeen

    Badenoch been 3 times.

    If SNP held would be a big shock
    This is just incoherent. The SNP won yet another Holyrood election just over a month ago in pretty much the same circumstances. Labour vote collapsing is good for them (should hoover some of that back up), as is the lack of any plausible Green or LD challenge. It’s the SNP’s to lose.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 6,082
    Foss said:

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Glum SNP sources saying it looks like the Reform vote has collapsed to the Tories as they cast tactical votes to beat the SNP in Aberdeen South

    https://x.com/dmscotpol/status/2067734488499593287?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    Aside from that, it's brought to mind this scene from Alfred Hitchcock's 39 Steps :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aalwXQINtio

    Getting on for 100 years old. And somehow still relevant.

    100 years old. It still strikes me sometimes that films I've watched at the cinema, records I've listened to are a a 100 years (or more!) old. I also still put a hand up in the vote for recording sound as the biggest cultural leap for... millennia?
    I’d have to go with moving images. To see someone’s animated face, long after they’ve died… it’s a like to the past and to other people that you don’t get with anything else.
    But the sound of their voice? There are recordings using now-forgotten techniques that we can't play back sadly, - including A.Lincoln. A flickering moving face is small beans to me. Nothing in history comes close to recorded sound.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,934
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...

    Hartlepool in 2021.

    Last time the Tories gained a seat in a Scottish by election though was 1948 so huge boost for Kemi if the Aberdeen South reports are correct
    Ah when Pb told me I was a muppet for saying that no Johnson would not be PM for 10 years
    I think only 5 PMs have managed 10 years in a row (though more have over multiple terms) and there was a 150+ year gap between the previous one and Thatcher.

    Granted it then happened again pretty soon, but I don't care how popular a PM is, surviving 10 years in our system is bloody difficult.

    Even before we went full Italy and started dropping them every 1-2 years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,934
    Eabhal said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...

    Hartlepool in 2021.

    Last time the Tories gained a seat in a Scottish by election though was 1948 so huge boost for Kemi if the Aberdeen South reports are correct
    It would be a shock if Tories didn't win

    SNP rocked by scandal and popular MP gone

    Labour deeply unpopular everywhere

    Reform not that strong further north

    Not LD or Green territory.

    Tories have abandoned English By Elections on North thrown massive effort in to Aberdeen

    Badenoch been 3 times.

    If SNP held would be a big shock
    This is just incoherent. The SNP won yet another Holyrood election just over a month ago in pretty much the same circumstances. Labour vote collapsing is good for them (should hoover some of that back up), as is the lack of any plausible Green or LD challenge. It’s the SNP’s to lose.
    That's my thinking. The death of the SNP is (from my perspective unfortunately) often predicted, but despite the recent lingering scandal they seem to have a pretty solid floor, and the Tories need a lot of tactical voting (or Reform do).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,364
    "Tom Gordon
    @DMScotPol

    Conservatives increasingly confident in Aberdeen South byelection after tactical surge in their favour.

    Some SNP sources privately conceding they've lost"

    https://x.com/DMScotPol/status/2067746023473115292
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,934
    Andy_JS said:

    "Tom Gordon
    @DMScotPol

    Conservatives increasingly confident in Aberdeen South byelection after tactical surge in their favour.

    Some SNP sources privately conceding they've lost"

    https://x.com/DMScotPol/status/2067746023473115292

    Maybe. But it is also that time of night when we all have to sway to the music of unfounded rumour. Only way to experience a by-election.

    If they win but Burnham does too, good luck getting much press about it.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,749
    ohnotnow said:

    Foss said:

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Glum SNP sources saying it looks like the Reform vote has collapsed to the Tories as they cast tactical votes to beat the SNP in Aberdeen South

    https://x.com/dmscotpol/status/2067734488499593287?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    Aside from that, it's brought to mind this scene from Alfred Hitchcock's 39 Steps :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aalwXQINtio

    Getting on for 100 years old. And somehow still relevant.

    100 years old. It still strikes me sometimes that films I've watched at the cinema, records I've listened to are a a 100 years (or more!) old. I also still put a hand up in the vote for recording sound as the biggest cultural leap for... millennia?
    I’d have to go with moving images. To see someone’s animated face, long after they’ve died… it’s a like to the past and to other people that you don’t get with anything else.
    But the sound of their voice? There are recordings using now-forgotten techniques that we can't play back sadly, - including A.Lincoln. A flickering moving face is small beans to me. Nothing in history comes close to recorded sound.
    Some of my preference for moving images probably stems from the fact I’d rather go deaf than blind. Faces and eyes are the true windows into a person.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,364
    MarqueeMark said:

    When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...

    Hartlepool, 2021.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,687
    Makerfield turnout 60%+
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,760
    Andy_JS said:

    "Tom Gordon
    @DMScotPol

    Conservatives increasingly confident in Aberdeen South byelection after tactical surge in their favour.

    Some SNP sources privately conceding they've lost"

    https://x.com/DMScotPol/status/2067746023473115292

    X
    Bustin' Jowie@justinbowie1997
    "We’ve turned up to an oil and gas gun fight with a water pistol," a senior Aberdeen SNP source has told me.

    Very pessimistic assessment as ballots are counted.
    https://x.com/justinbowie1997/status/2067735528762438078
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,364
    edited June 18
    2nd red card for Qatar (v Canada).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,934
    fitalass said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Tom Gordon
    @DMScotPol

    Conservatives increasingly confident in Aberdeen South byelection after tactical surge in their favour.

    Some SNP sources privately conceding they've lost"

    https://x.com/DMScotPol/status/2067746023473115292

    X
    Bustin' Jowie@justinbowie1997
    "We’ve turned up to an oil and gas gun fight with a water pistol," a senior Aberdeen SNP source has told me.

    Very pessimistic assessment as ballots are counted.
    https://x.com/justinbowie1997/status/2067735528762438078
    Good stuff. Of course, it can be funny when the gloomy pessimist is booked, and actually things turn out ok. Pretty sure some people had been booked for the 2017 GE on the basis they could lay into Corbyn for leading them to disaster, and were thrown for a loop.

    Got their chance in 2019 of course.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,934
    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...

    Hartlepool in 2021 during Boris bounce.

    Last time the Tories gained a seat in a Scottish by election though was 1967 so huge boost for Kemi if the Aberdeen South reports are correct
    Despite all the ups and downs of Scottish politics in the last 15+ years, the Tories are still technically in a better place there than they were for quite some time. David Mundell actually has some nearby friends to call upon.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,364
    edited June 18
    If you had to list the best seats in the UK for the Tories to win in a by-election atm, Aberdeen South would have been in the top 5. Very weak area for Reform UK.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,097
    dixiedean said:

    Makerfield turnout 60%+

    Up from 52.4% in the GE.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 783
    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...

    Hartlepool in 2021.

    Last time the Tories gained a seat in a Scottish by election though was 1948 so huge boost for Kemi if the Aberdeen South reports are correct
    It would be a shock if Tories didn't win

    SNP rocked by scandal and popular MP gone

    Labour deeply unpopular everywhere

    Reform not that strong further north

    Not LD or Green territory.

    Tories have abandoned English By Elections on North thrown massive effort in to Aberdeen

    Badenoch been 3 times.

    If SNP held would be a big shock
    Really?

    Badenoch has been struggling in the polls as well.

    Aberdeen South contains the harbour and central wards which are kinder to the Greens, they polled very strongly on the list there last month. A Labour collapse wouldn't automatically assume their vote would go Tory. Lib Dems held Aberdeen South at Holyrood when their leader was Nicol Stephen. Reform are not bad in Aberdeenshire, they nearly took Banff and Buchan coast 6 weeks ago, missing out by 360 odd votes.

    Its largely a city seat, and the Tories haven't been doing well in urban areas for the past few years.

    All that being said, SNP are struggling outside the central belt, they are facing more opposition from Lib Dems and Tories in rural areas.

    They would be hoping for a world cup bounce but John Swinney couldnt have had a worse start to his return to Holyrood.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 783
    Andy_JS said:

    "Tom Gordon
    @DMScotPol

    Conservatives increasingly confident in Aberdeen South byelection after tactical surge in their favour.

    Some SNP sources privately conceding they've lost"

    https://x.com/DMScotPol/status/2067746023473115292

    If this is true (still a big if) it would seem a collapse or part collapse in the Reform vote has headed to the Tories, along with enough of a chunk of Labour votes from tactical unionists.

    Remember, both Lab and Con got over 11,000 votes in the 2024 GE in Aberdeen South, there was a confused unionist tactical voting picture.

    Its clearer the Tories would be the main challenger this time.

    Would be a big shot in the arm if Kemi won this
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,364
    DoctorG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Tom Gordon
    @DMScotPol

    Conservatives increasingly confident in Aberdeen South byelection after tactical surge in their favour.

    Some SNP sources privately conceding they've lost"

    https://x.com/DMScotPol/status/2067746023473115292

    If this is true (still a big if) it would seem a collapse or part collapse in the Reform vote has headed to the Tories, along with enough of a chunk of Labour votes from tactical unionists.

    Remember, both Lab and Con got over 11,000 votes in the 2024 GE in Aberdeen South, there was a confused unionist tactical voting picture.

    Its clearer the Tories would be the main challenger this time.

    Would be a big shot in the arm if Kemi won this
    Although the Reform vote wasn't that high to begin with in Aberdeen South, 6.9%.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,364
    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...

    Hartlepool in 2021.

    Last time the Tories gained a seat in a Scottish by election though was 1948 so huge boost for Kemi if the Aberdeen South reports are correct
    It would be a shock if Tories didn't win

    SNP rocked by scandal and popular MP gone

    Labour deeply unpopular everywhere

    Reform not that strong further north

    Not LD or Green territory.

    Tories have abandoned English By Elections on North thrown massive effort in to Aberdeen

    Badenoch been 3 times.

    If SNP held would be a big shock
    It'll be a shock to punters who had the SNP as favourites until about 10pm.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 783
    Older pb'ers will remember the 1992 General election, when Aberdeen South was the only seat in Scotland that changed hands when it was gained by the Conservatives from Labour (if you discount the Kincardine and Deeside by election result)
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 783
    edited June 18
    Andy_JS said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...

    Hartlepool in 2021.

    Last time the Tories gained a seat in a Scottish by election though was 1948 so huge boost for Kemi if the Aberdeen South reports are correct
    It would be a shock if Tories didn't win

    SNP rocked by scandal and popular MP gone

    Labour deeply unpopular everywhere

    Reform not that strong further north

    Not LD or Green territory.

    Tories have abandoned English By Elections on North thrown massive effort in to Aberdeen

    Badenoch been 3 times.

    If SNP held would be a big shock
    It'll be a shock to punters who had the SNP as favourites until about 10pm.
    Indeed, fair play to you if a Tory win is a final result. I didn't have any money on but thought it would be fairly close either way

    Journos on twitter starting to report higher Tory piles than SNP ones in the count centre
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,934
    How's the Count Binface vote holding up?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,934
    DoctorG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...

    Hartlepool in 2021.

    Last time the Tories gained a seat in a Scottish by election though was 1948 so huge boost for Kemi if the Aberdeen South reports are correct
    It would be a shock if Tories didn't win

    SNP rocked by scandal and popular MP gone

    Labour deeply unpopular everywhere

    Reform not that strong further north

    Not LD or Green territory.

    Tories have abandoned English By Elections on North thrown massive effort in to Aberdeen

    Badenoch been 3 times.

    If SNP held would be a big shock
    It'll be a shock to punters who had the SNP as favourites until about 10pm.
    Indeed, fair play to you if a Tory win is a final result. I didn't have any money on but thought it would be fairly close either way

    Journos on twitter starting to report higher Tory piles than SNP ones in the count centre
    They've already completed verification and onto the actual count?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,760
    X
    Election Maps UK@ElectionMapsUK
    Hillingdon West (Hillingdon) Countermanded Election Result:

    🌳 CON: 45.1% (-10.0)
    🌹 LAB: 19.6% (-14.9)
    ➡️ RFM: 18.0% (New)
    🌍 GRN: 14.7% (+4.3)
    🔶 LDM: 2.6% (New)

    Conservative HOLD x2.
    Changes w/ 2022.
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2067744387526725664
    __

    Election Maps UK@ElectionMapsUK·29m
    Rayleigh West (Essex) Council By-Election Result:

    🌳 CON: 35.4% (+17.5)
    🔶 LDM: 29.5% (+2.9)
    ➡️ RFM: 24.4% (-15.3)
    🌍 GRN: 5.3% (-0.8)
    🙋 Ind: 2.7% (New)
    🌹 LAB: 2.0% (-1.9)
    🙋 Ind: 0.8% (New)

    No Loc (-6.0) previous.

    Conservative GAIN from Reform.
    Changes w/ 2026.
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2067746062530421048
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,095
    BBC now saying the Tories claim they have won Aberdeen South and gained the seat from the SNP
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,934
    HYUFD said:

    BBC now saying the Tories claim they have won Aberdeen South and gained the seat from the SNP

    Get that crucial 1am-4am news lead until Makerfield comes in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,095
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC now saying the Tories claim they have won Aberdeen South and gained the seat from the SNP

    Get that crucial 1am-4am news lead until Makerfield comes in.
    Though even if Burnham wins Makerfield that will only be a Labour hold, Aberdeen South will be a Tory gain!!!!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,364
    HYUFD said:

    BBC now saying the Tories claim they have won Aberdeen South and gained the seat from the SNP

    Most punters on Betfair got this one wrong.
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