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Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM

SystemSystem Posts: 13,198
edited 2:09PM in General
Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM – politicalbetting.com

If Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister in the next few months this polling indicates there won’t be much of a polling boost but long term that might not be an issue.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,571
    First!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,869
    rcs1000 said:

    First!

    Insider posting!

    That's what people usually say when I get a first.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,552
    First that passes the smell test.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,491
    Getting nasty at The Oval?
    Quote from the BBC “Very dark over The Oval now. Threatening crowds are lingering as the floodlights kick into life.”
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,909
    Well the black rain has started to fall in Moscow…

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2067602867112804755

    Going to be quite the cleanup for them, what a shame.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,069
    OldKingCole said:

    Getting nasty at The Oval?
    Quote from the BBC “Very dark over The Oval now. Threatening crowds are lingering as the floodlights kick into life.”

    I’m currently on a ferry from Calais to Dover and the sky looks dark AF over the White Cliffs.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,329
    edited 2:28PM
    Good afternoon

    Events will dictate the success or otherwise of Burnham some of which will be out of his control

    I would just say I do not envy any PM in these divisive days, but Starmer just has to go to begin a process of change for labour


  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,390
    Gallowgate said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Getting nasty at The Oval?
    Quote from the BBC “Very dark over The Oval now. Threatening crowds are lingering as the floodlights kick into life.”

    I’m currently on a ferry from Calais to Dover and the sky looks dark AF over the White Cliffs.
    Fleeing the country before the Glorious Revolution?
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,746
    Sandpit said:

    Well the black rain has started to fall in Moscow…

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2067602867112804755

    Going to be quite the cleanup for them, what a shame.

    Bad day to be a fish in the Moskva River.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,091
    Gallowgate said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Getting nasty at The Oval?
    Quote from the BBC “Very dark over The Oval now. Threatening crowds are lingering as the floodlights kick into life.”

    I’m currently on a ferry from Calais to Dover and the sky looks dark AF over the White Cliffs.
    This is what Reform and Restore dislike about today's Britain.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,909
    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well the black rain has started to fall in Moscow…

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2067602867112804755

    Going to be quite the cleanup for them, what a shame.

    Bad day to be a fish in the Moskva River.
    “Black Square” has a nice ring to it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,091
    Sandpit said:

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well the black rain has started to fall in Moscow…

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2067602867112804755

    Going to be quite the cleanup for them, what a shame.

    Bad day to be a fish in the Moskva River.
    “Black Square” has a nice ring to it.
    The very, very Black Sea?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,091
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Good afternoon

    Events will dictate the success or otherwise of Burnham some of which will be out of his control

    I would just say I do not envy any PM in these divisive days, but Starmer just has to go to begin a process of change for labour


    Well reading between the lines, War Hero and National Treasure, General Peter Hegseth looks like he has set six months as the timeline to crock NATO.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,500
    I'm very glad to read that they're counting overnight.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,091
    AnneJGP said:

    I'm very glad to read that they're counting overnight.

    If Rob the Plumber wins and gets the congratulory visit from Farage, that means Farage will have visited the Manchester area twice as many times in the last two years as he has Clacton.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,571
    Gallowgate said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Getting nasty at The Oval?
    Quote from the BBC “Very dark over The Oval now. Threatening crowds are lingering as the floodlights kick into life.”

    I’m currently on a ferry from Calais to Dover and the sky looks dark AF over the White Cliffs.
    To be fair, it is Dover.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,084
    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2067604619073671599

    NEW: Labour sources say they’re contacting 120 voters a minute in Makerfield today
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,091
    edited 2:53PM
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2067604619073671599

    NEW: Labour sources say they’re contacting 120 voters a minute in Makerfield today

    So what does that tell us? Close or a Burnham landslide or er, nothing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,084
    Burnham's even got John Bercow canvassing for him. Real uniparty vibes.

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/2067610409268326447
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,091
    williamglenn said:

    Burnham's even got John Bercow canvassing for him. Real uniparty vibes.

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/2067610409268326447

    Oh shit! Should we now put this down as a Reform gain?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,038
    Mexicanpete said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2067604619073671599

    NEW: Labour sources say they’re contacting 120 voters a minute in Makerfield today

    So what does that tell us?
    That knocking up is brisk.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,491
    edited 3:00PM
    williamglenn said:

    Burnham's even got John Bercow canvassing for him. Real uniparty vibes.

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/2067610409268326447

    Mrs C and I are Labour-ish; voted Green in the County Council elections to keep out Reform..... which worked, but after the third of fourth canvass I'd be inclined to say anything to get rid of the canvasser!
    Including no, I'm never voting for you. Even if I was!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,183
    Nigelb said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2067604619073671599

    NEW: Labour sources say they’re contacting 120 voters a minute in Makerfield today

    So what does that tell us?
    That knocking up is brisk.
    Russell Brand late entry
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,311
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2067604619073671599

    NEW: Labour sources say they’re contacting 120 voters a minute in Makerfield today

    It is possible to put voters off by pestering them too much.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,084
    Andy_JS said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2067604619073671599

    NEW: Labour sources say they’re contacting 120 voters a minute in Makerfield today

    It is possible to put voters off by pestering them too much.
    It could be especially counterproductive when the party is less popular than the candidate.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 990
    What if the Conservatives fail at Aberdeen South, maybe finishing third as at the General.
    Dare I say it , "12 hours to save Badenoch's position and political career"!!!
    This seems to have been ignored with all the attention on Burnham.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,389
    I assume today's fall in Sterling is a Burnham effect. When you consider how loose US fiscal policy is and how huge their public debt it's kind of ironic really, but them's the breaks.

    If Burnham loses to Reform this evening we might therefore see the bizarre phenomenon of a rise in the pound on news of a government defeat to a populist party that lauded the Truss mini-budget.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,389
    williamglenn said:

    Burnham's even got John Bercow canvassing for him. Real uniparty vibes.

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/2067610409268326447

    Given Bercow is loathed by Tories like few others, maybe not so uniparty.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 1,008
    MelonB said:

    I assume today's fall in Sterling is a Burnham effect. When you consider how loose US fiscal policy is and how huge their public debt it's kind of ironic really, but them's the breaks.

    If Burnham loses to Reform this evening we might therefore see the bizarre phenomenon of a rise in the pound on news of a government defeat to a populist party that lauded the Truss mini-budget.

    Surely lower than expected inflation means reduced chances of higer interest rates hence drop in stirling rather than any Burnham effect ????
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,869
    theakes said:

    What if the Conservatives fail at Aberdeen South, maybe finishing third as at the General.
    Dare I say it , "12 hours to save Badenoch's position and political career"!!!
    This seems to have been ignored with all the attention on Burnham.

    As I pointed out she's failed every electoral challenge she's faced as leader.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,491
    edited 3:23PM
    williamglenn said:

    Andy_JS said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2067604619073671599

    NEW: Labour sources say they’re contacting 120 voters a minute in Makerfield today

    It is possible to put voters off by pestering them too much.
    It could be especially counterproductive when the party is less popular than the candidate.
    Do we know what proportion of Makerfield's votes are postal ones? No point now in canvassing a postal voter!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,869
    MelonB said:

    williamglenn said:

    Burnham's even got John Bercow canvassing for him. Real uniparty vibes.

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/2067610409268326447

    Given Bercow is loathed by Tories like few others, maybe not so uniparty.
    If there's one thing that unites Tories it is all thinking John Bercow is a [redacted].
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,183
    edited 3:31PM
    ManchesterKurt said:

    MelonB said:

    I assume today's fall in Sterling is a Burnham effect. When you consider how loose US fiscal policy is and how huge their public debt it's kind of ironic really, but them's the breaks.

    If Burnham loses to Reform this evening we might therefore see the bizarre phenomenon of a rise in the pound on news of a government defeat to a populist party that lauded the Truss mini-budget.

    Surely lower than expected inflation means reduced chances of higer interest rates hence drop in stirling rather than any Burnham effect ????
    It's a very plausible theory, but there was no sudden drop at 07:00 on the 17th when the report was released. Normally with an unexpected report (which this was to a degree) or rate hike or whatever the effect is seen very quickly after, the main drop was at about 18:00 on the 17th.

    I think, I think it's more about a USD rally as the move against EUR is much smaller.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,311
    I want to place a combination bet on today's by-elections, but (a) Betfair Exchange doesn't do combination bets, and (b) Betfair Sportsbook, which does do them, doesn't have any prices for the by-elections.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,381
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MelonB said:

    williamglenn said:

    Burnham's even got John Bercow canvassing for him. Real uniparty vibes.

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/2067610409268326447

    Given Bercow is loathed by Tories like few others, maybe not so uniparty.
    If there's one thing that unites Tories it is all thinking John Bercow is a [redacted].
    As do all right thinking people.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,571
    Andy_JS said:

    I want to place a combination bet on today's by-elections, but (a) Betfair Exchange doesn't do combination bets, and (b) Betfair Sportsbook, which does do them, doesn't have any prices for the by-elections.

    Blame Genius Sports.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,571
    turbotubbs said:

    Gallowgate said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Getting nasty at The Oval?
    Quote from the BBC “Very dark over The Oval now. Threatening crowds are lingering as the floodlights kick into life.”

    I’m currently on a ferry from Calais to Dover and the sky looks dark AF over the White Cliffs.
    Fleeing the country before the Glorious Revolution?
    He's heading to the UK...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,183
    Andy_JS said:

    I want to place a combination bet on today's by-elections, but (a) Betfair Exchange doesn't do combination bets, and (b) Betfair Sportsbook, which does do them, doesn't have any prices for the by-elections.

    The Scottish bets are related contingencies I think (Both somewhat dependant on general SNP performance) whereas Makerfield isn't. It's hard enough to get liquidity for singles on the Sportsbook though let alone producing multiples markets on the exchange.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,099
    Andy_JS said:

    I want to place a combination bet on today's by-elections, but (a) Betfair Exchange doesn't do combination bets, and (b) Betfair Sportsbook, which does do them, doesn't have any prices for the by-elections.

    I suspect they would be related contingencies and not allowed on Sportsbook anyway. They certainly should be if the compilers have any sense.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,390
    OldKingCole said:

    williamglenn said:

    Andy_JS said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2067604619073671599

    NEW: Labour sources say they’re contacting 120 voters a minute in Makerfield today

    It is possible to put voters off by pestering them too much.
    It could be especially counterproductive when the party is less popular than the candidate.
    Do we know what proportion of Makerfield's votes are postal ones? No point now in canvassing a postal voter!
    The general election had about 23% of the electorate issued postal votes and returned around 3/4 so just under 17% postal voted . I haven’t seen any data for the current by-election .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,869
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I want to place a combination bet on today's by-elections, but (a) Betfair Exchange doesn't do combination bets, and (b) Betfair Sportsbook, which does do them, doesn't have any prices for the by-elections.

    The Scottish bets are related contingencies I think (Both somewhat dependant on general SNP performance) whereas Makerfield isn't. It's hard enough to get liquidity for singles on the Sportsbook though let alone producing multiples markets on the exchange.
    Big John Owls got onto the Ladbrokes accumulator bet on the by-elections.

    It wasn't up for long, he even got a boost!

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5576532#Comment_5576532
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,183
    noneoftheabove said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I want to place a combination bet on today's by-elections, but (a) Betfair Exchange doesn't do combination bets, and (b) Betfair Sportsbook, which does do them, doesn't have any prices for the by-elections.

    I suspect they would be related contingencies and not allowed on Sportsbook anyway. They certainly should be if the compilers have any sense.
    Scottish ones certainly. Are Aberdeen South and Makerfield particularly related though ?

    Reform and Labour are both 100-1 for that Aberdeen South, SNP isn't standing and Conservatives 1000-1 Makerfield.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,390
    rcs1000 said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Gallowgate said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Getting nasty at The Oval?
    Quote from the BBC “Very dark over The Oval now. Threatening crowds are lingering as the floodlights kick into life.”

    I’m currently on a ferry from Calais to Dover and the sky looks dark AF over the White Cliffs.
    Fleeing the country before the Glorious Revolution?
    He's heading to the UK...
    Doh! Poor reading comprehension from me!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,183
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I want to place a combination bet on today's by-elections, but (a) Betfair Exchange doesn't do combination bets, and (b) Betfair Sportsbook, which does do them, doesn't have any prices for the by-elections.

    The Scottish bets are related contingencies I think (Both somewhat dependant on general SNP performance) whereas Makerfield isn't. It's hard enough to get liquidity for singles on the Sportsbook though let alone producing multiples markets on the exchange.
    Big John Owls got onto the Ladbrokes accumulator bet on the by-elections.

    It wasn't up for long, he even got a boost!

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5576532#Comment_5576532
    Comical he was able to multiple the two Scottish ones into the bet lol. I guess it's too much like hard work for the odds compilers to individually flag by-elections, you can bet this and this together but not this and that...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,099
    Pulpstar said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I want to place a combination bet on today's by-elections, but (a) Betfair Exchange doesn't do combination bets, and (b) Betfair Sportsbook, which does do them, doesn't have any prices for the by-elections.

    I suspect they would be related contingencies and not allowed on Sportsbook anyway. They certainly should be if the compilers have any sense.
    Scottish ones certainly. Are Aberdeen South and Makerfield particularly related though ?

    Reform and Labour are both 100-1 for that Aberdeen South, SNP isn't standing and Conservatives 1000-1 Makerfield.
    Only a little but related. And the rule needs to be consistent so punters understand it, and shop staff can implement it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,183
    edited 3:47PM
    It's 8:50, that's the time it's always been
    Aha Emilio Gay
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,110
    edited 3:58PM
    Pulpstar said:

    It's 8:50, that's the time it's always been
    Aha Emilio Gay

    Have to say that right now Emilio Gay is making me hark back to the breezy, open, adventurous play of Geoffrey Boycott. He has been on 49 for at least 12 balls.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,084
    https://x.com/BNHWalker/status/2067619003040706586

    Quite a pleasant conversation between Lab and Ref activists observed in Hindley just now. Both think it's tight. And both see Restore as a factor.

    "They call us traitors. And I think they'll make the difference" the Ref activist said.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,124
    I must know, is turnout brisk?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,759
    Pulpstar said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I want to place a combination bet on today's by-elections, but (a) Betfair Exchange doesn't do combination bets, and (b) Betfair Sportsbook, which does do them, doesn't have any prices for the by-elections.

    I suspect they would be related contingencies and not allowed on Sportsbook anyway. They certainly should be if the compilers have any sense.
    Scottish ones certainly. Are Aberdeen South and Makerfield particularly related though ?

    Reform and Labour are both 100-1 for that Aberdeen South, SNP isn't standing and Conservatives 1000-1 Makerfield.
    I'd want better odds than that for the Conservatives in Makerfield.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,580
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/BNHWalker/status/2067619003040706586

    Quite a pleasant conversation between Lab and Ref activists observed in Hindley just now. Both think it's tight. And both see Restore as a factor.

    "They call us traitors. And I think they'll make the difference" the Ref activist said.

    Being a Reform activist coming up against a Restore activist must be like being in Labour and coming up against a Trot.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,265
    edited 4:06PM
    williamglenn said:

    Burnham's even got John Bercow canvassing for him. Real uniparty vibes.

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/2067610409268326447

    Can imagine a snob and a bully like Bercow going down like a lead balloon up there... 😂
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,602
    OldKingCole said:

    williamglenn said:

    Andy_JS said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2067604619073671599

    NEW: Labour sources say they’re contacting 120 voters a minute in Makerfield today

    It is possible to put voters off by pestering them too much.
    It could be especially counterproductive when the party is less popular than the candidate.
    Do we know what proportion of Makerfield's votes are postal ones? No point now in canvassing a postal voter!
    Put it in the bank for the likely Mayoral election.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,932
    For all those of you using phrases like "the pound plummeted this day/week", here's a tip. If the y-axis has got more than two or three decimal points then it isn't a plummet, it's just movement.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,091
    Listening to Vance he's doing very, very well with the Press Corp. He is clearly a very good snake oil salesman explaining that the Obama nuclear deal was rubbish and this deal is fantastic, and the proof can be confirmed by the Gulf States.

    He seemed very measured and amenable. Very much to the contrary of that f***tard Hegseth.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,091
    edited 4:29PM
    theakes said:

    What if the Conservatives fail at Aberdeen South, maybe finishing third as at the General.
    Dare I say it , "12 hours to save Badenoch's position and political career"!!!
    This seems to have been ignored with all the attention on Burnham.

    I think a solid second is the very worst she can expect. She's as safe as houses.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,666
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/BNHWalker/status/2067619003040706586

    Quite a pleasant conversation between Lab and Ref activists observed in Hindley just now. Both think it's tight. And both see Restore as a factor.

    "They call us traitors. And I think they'll make the difference" the Ref activist said.

    A man who is tired of Hindley is probably on the right track.
    I'm headed there right now.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,580
    viewcode said:

    For all those of you using phrases like "the pound plummeted this day/week", here's a tip. If the y-axis has got more than two or three decimal points then it isn't a plummet, it's just movement.

    If you want to scale changes in GBP, make sure you include 2016. If you want to scale changes in gilt yields, make sure you include 2022.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,746
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    viewcode said:

    For all those of you using phrases like "the pound plummeted this day/week", here's a tip. If the y-axis has got more than two or three decimal points then it isn't a plummet, it's just movement.

    If you want to scale changes in GBP, make sure you include 2016. If you want to scale changes in gilt yields, make sure you include 2022.
    But if you only go back to 2016 you get to miss all of the fun of 2008!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,091
    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,932
    For all those of you who follow the YouTuber FlatCircleHistory and his series on the Next World War, episode 22 is now up. Entitled "Into The Gauntlet", it covers the amphibious invasion of Taiwan.

    Episode 22: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypUIZYrGayI
    Full playlist of all episodes: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkq77zgeVLZMJzGFOZeafke31i-ijHBAY
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,580
    Mexicanpete said:

    Listening to Vance he's doing very, very well with the Press Corp. He is clearly a very good snake oil salesman explaining that the Obama nuclear deal was rubbish and this deal is fantastic, and the proof can be confirmed by the Gulf States.

    He seemed very measured and amenable. Very much to the contrary of that f***tard Hegseth.

    Vance is very clever. Hegseth is very stupid. Vance is much more dangerous.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,869
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I want to place a combination bet on today's by-elections, but (a) Betfair Exchange doesn't do combination bets, and (b) Betfair Sportsbook, which does do them, doesn't have any prices for the by-elections.

    The Scottish bets are related contingencies I think (Both somewhat dependant on general SNP performance) whereas Makerfield isn't. It's hard enough to get liquidity for singles on the Sportsbook though let alone producing multiples markets on the exchange.
    Big John Owls got onto the Ladbrokes accumulator bet on the by-elections.

    It wasn't up for long, he even got a boost!

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5576532#Comment_5576532
    Comical he was able to multiple the two Scottish ones into the bet lol. I guess it's too much like hard work for the odds compilers to individually flag by-elections, you can bet this and this together but not this and that...
    To think Ladbrokes wouldn’t let me have a double on the Scottish and Welsh devolved elections.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,580
    Foss said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    viewcode said:

    For all those of you using phrases like "the pound plummeted this day/week", here's a tip. If the y-axis has got more than two or three decimal points then it isn't a plummet, it's just movement.

    If you want to scale changes in GBP, make sure you include 2016. If you want to scale changes in gilt yields, make sure you include 2022.
    But if you only go back to 2016 you get to miss all of the fun of 2008!
    In 2008 of course GBP fell to levels not seen in six years, whereas in 2016 it fell to levels not seen in over three decades...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,010
    Gallowgate said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Getting nasty at The Oval?
    Quote from the BBC “Very dark over The Oval now. Threatening crowds are lingering as the floodlights kick into life.”

    I’m currently on a ferry from Calais to Dover and the sky looks dark AF over the White Cliffs.
    Looks like Kent got hit by some heavy rain, but only a few drops here in the east London 'burbs.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,378
    Mexicanpete said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    I've never really liked Burnham.

    Politically he would be a better leader than Starmer.

    If he loses, or wins, it seems certain Streeting will make a move.

    I'd be delighted with Streeting as Leader and PM

    However the Labour membership would not vote for Streeting, so who would the soft left put up?

    Ed, Angela, Louise??

    So By default I'd accept Burnham to keep soft left happy, but with Streeting in one of the major Offices of State and the 2 of them working together closely.

    Both excellent at the political side of things.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,378
    Mexicanpete said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    I've never really liked Burnham.

    Politically he would be a better leader than Starmer.

    If he loses, or wins, it seems certain Streeting will make a move.

    I'd be delighted with Streeting as Leader and PM

    However the Labour membership would not vote for Streeting, so who would the soft left put up?

    Ed, Angela, Louise??

    So By default I'd accept Burnham to keep soft left happy, but with Streeting in one of the major Offices of State and the 2 of them working together closely.

    Both excellent at the political side of things.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,933
    Mexicanpete said:

    Listening to Vance he's doing very, very well with the Press Corp. He is clearly a very good snake oil salesman explaining that the Obama nuclear deal was rubbish and this deal is fantastic, and the proof can be confirmed by the Gulf States.

    He seemed very measured and amenable. Very much to the contrary of that f***tard Hegseth.

    Anybody who can even try to sell Trump's Iran shambles as 'fantastic' must have a very robust constitution.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,311
    Brixian59 said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    I've never really liked Burnham.

    Politically he would be a better leader than Starmer.

    If he loses, or wins, it seems certain Streeting will make a move.

    I'd be delighted with Streeting as Leader and PM

    However the Labour membership would not vote for Streeting, so who would the soft left put up?

    Ed, Angela, Louise??

    So By default I'd accept Burnham to keep soft left happy, but with Streeting in one of the major Offices of State and the 2 of them working together closely.

    Both excellent at the political side of things.
    I'm still hoping that Streeting somehow ends up as leader and PM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,183
    Is Archer really going in at 8 and Tongue 9 ?!

    Hopefully it's just because the 10 and 11 are new or that's some tail
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,311
    John Bercow is out campaigning in Makerfield for Burnham.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,933
    Mexicanpete said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    Just picture Farage's gurning mug tomorrow morning if you need help rooting for Burnham.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,378
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I want to place a combination bet on today's by-elections, but (a) Betfair Exchange doesn't do combination bets, and (b) Betfair Sportsbook, which does do them, doesn't have any prices for the by-elections.

    I suspect they would be related contingencies and not allowed on Sportsbook anyway. They certainly should be if the compilers have any sense.
    Scottish ones certainly. Are Aberdeen South and Makerfield particularly related though ?

    Reform and Labour are both 100-1 for that Aberdeen South, SNP isn't standing and Conservatives 1000-1 Makerfield.
    I'd want better odds than that for the Conservatives in Makerfield.
    Gallowgate said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Getting nasty at The Oval?
    Quote from the BBC “Very dark over The Oval now. Threatening crowds are lingering as the floodlights kick into life.”

    I’m currently on a ferry from Calais to Dover and the sky looks dark AF over the White Cliffs.
    It's the new secret weapon being tested by the RAF

    Cloud bombing, permanent heavy rain and high winds from Dover to Folkestone and Calais to Boulogne
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,368
    I've ramped him for years, come on JAMES
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,311
    According to BBC TV, South Africa had 63% posession during the first half. Czech Republic lead 1-0.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,933
    Andy_JS said:

    John Bercow is out campaigning in Makerfield for Burnham.

    Hugh Grant too. He's just a boy standing in a street in Greater Manchester trying to tell the favourite for next PM that he loves him.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,390
    Mexicanpete said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    As much as I find Burnham full of self-entitlement and find the whole thing unsavoury as in just turning up to the Commons with the intention of deposing a PM within weeks I’m going to have to swallow my irritation.

    I’m not convinced by Burnham but the choice is either he wins or we get the media going full on Reform government in waiting. And it will also have the added benefit of seeing the Reform lickspittle Chris Mason needing help to overcome his grief !
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,759
    Andy_JS said:

    John Bercow is out campaigning in Makerfield for Burnham.

    Of course he is.

    Hope he can reach the letterbox.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,110
    kinabalu said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    Just picture Farage's gurning mug tomorrow morning if you need help rooting for Burnham.
    He's already whinging about the role played by Lowe in their defeat. Doesn't sound very confident to me. Mind you, he was doing the same at Brexit.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,581
    Mexicanpete said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    I'd be delighted if I wake up tomorrow morning and discover that he's lost.

    I'll be walking through the mean streets of Manchester with a spring in my step if the unlikely happens.

    If he wins, good luck to the Labour candidate in the unnecessary mayoral election brought on by Burnham's self-entitlement.
  • CharlieSharkCharlieShark Posts: 471
    williamglenn said:

    Burnham's even got John Bercow canvassing for him. Real uniparty vibes.

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/2067610409268326447

    His ongoing (it's been years now) suspension from the Labour party doesn't seem to have many limits. Not a good sign if that vile prick is supporting you.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,213
    SandyRentool said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    I'd be delighted if I wake up tomorrow morning and discover that he's lost.

    I'll be walking through the mean streets of Manchester with a spring in my step if the unlikely happens.

    If he wins, good luck to the Labour candidate in the unnecessary mayoral election brought on by Burnham's self-entitlement.
    +1
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,084
    CharlieShark said:

    williamglenn said:

    Burnham's even got John Bercow canvassing for him. Real uniparty vibes.

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/2067610409268326447

    His ongoing (it's been years now) suspension from the Labour party doesn't seem to have many limits. Not a good sign if that vile prick is supporting you.
    John Bercow and Hugh Grant aren't the best allies if you want to attack your opponent for misogyny.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,110
    Whew, England avoid the follow on.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,581
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    theakes said:

    What if the Conservatives fail at Aberdeen South, maybe finishing third as at the General.
    Dare I say it , "12 hours to save Badenoch's position and political career"!!!
    This seems to have been ignored with all the attention on Burnham.

    As I pointed out she's failed every electoral challenge she's faced as leader.
    I thought that Kemi kicked ass in the May locals? HY told me so.


    (They did have a modicum of success in Bradford, as it turns out.)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,602
    'Do not travel' advice for Dubai dropped

    The Foreign Office has dropped its advice against travelling to Dubai, but warned British citizens that "the situation remains unpredictable" in the region.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cddl29lg5gro

    President Trump's done a peace dividend.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,025
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    Just picture Farage's gurning mug tomorrow morning if you need help rooting for Burnham.
    He's already whinging about the role played by Lowe in their defeat. Doesn't sound very confident to me. Mind you, he was doing the same at Brexit.
    Farage seems to have gone to ground. Has he made it up to Makerfield recently?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,359
    CharlieShark said:

    williamglenn said:

    Burnham's even got John Bercow canvassing for him. Real uniparty vibes.

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/2067610409268326447

    His ongoing (it's been years now) suspension from the Labour party doesn't seem to have many limits. Not a good sign if that vile prick is supporting you.
    "While Bercow originally "proposed before he leaves office to waive his entitlement to the Speaker's pension until he reaches the age of 65", in 2021 he revealed he started taking the pension when he left the office, after speaking with his wife."

    Labour Values.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,602
    Man arrested after boy injured in zoo crocodile enclosure
    A man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy was left with critical injuries after ending up in a crocodile enclosure.
    ...
    The boy was taken to Addenbrooke's Hospital with serious injuries and is in a critical but stable condition

    A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder and officers added that they do not believe the man and child were known to each other.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czx50n2vj74o

    FFS.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,091
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    Just picture Farage's gurning mug tomorrow morning if you need help rooting for Burnham.
    He's already whinging about the role played by Lowe in their defeat. Doesn't sound very confident to me. Mind you, he was doing the same at Brexit.
    When I went to bed on Brexit night Farage had conceded defeat. Betfair was heading towards 100% on that news. When I got up the following morning Dimbleby said we were leaving. I bet the f***** made a killing.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,666
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    Just picture Farage's gurning mug tomorrow morning if you need help rooting for Burnham.
    He's already whinging about the role played by Lowe in their defeat. Doesn't sound very confident to me. Mind you, he was doing the same at Brexit.
    Farage seems to have gone to ground. Has he made it up to Makerfield recently?
    I think he's been twice.
    Not up for the £5 million quid question.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,909
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    'Do not travel' advice for Dubai dropped

    The Foreign Office has dropped its advice against travelling to Dubai, but warned British citizens that "the situation remains unpredictable" in the region.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cddl29lg5gro

    President Trump's done a peace dividend.

    That might help with some indirect flight routings, but no-one wants to visit Dubai in the summer!

    45ºC today, and it’s not going to be cooler or less humid until about the end of September!

    Some really cheap hotel deals out there at the moment though.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,359
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Man arrested after boy injured in zoo crocodile enclosure
    A man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy was left with critical injuries after ending up in a crocodile enclosure.
    ...
    The boy was taken to Addenbrooke's Hospital with serious injuries and is in a critical but stable condition

    A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder and officers added that they do not believe the man and child were known to each other.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czx50n2vj74o

    FFS.

    I mean, it's Norfolk, so they probably are related.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,110
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    Just picture Farage's gurning mug tomorrow morning if you need help rooting for Burnham.
    He's already whinging about the role played by Lowe in their defeat. Doesn't sound very confident to me. Mind you, he was doing the same at Brexit.
    Farage seems to have gone to ground. Has he made it up to Makerfield recently?
    Dunno, I pay as little attention to him as I can get away with.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,010
    edited 5:25PM
    SandyRentool said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    I'd be delighted if I wake up tomorrow morning and discover that he's lost.

    I'll be walking through the mean streets of Manchester with a spring in my step if the unlikely happens.

    If he wins, good luck to the Labour candidate in the unnecessary mayoral election brought on by Burnham's self-entitlement.
    “You can tell him now, we’re still fighting for this Leadership and he’s got to go to Makerfield and get something. And I’ll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat him. Love it.”
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,025
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    theakes said:

    What if the Conservatives fail at Aberdeen South, maybe finishing third as at the General.
    Dare I say it , "12 hours to save Badenoch's position and political career"!!!
    This seems to have been ignored with all the attention on Burnham.

    As I pointed out she's failed every electoral challenge she's faced as leader.
    Yes, that is what keeps her approval rating up amongst non-Tories 🤣🤣🤣
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,513
    DavidL said:

    Whew, England avoid the follow on.

    Long tail if Archer is at 8, though.
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