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Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,110

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    Just picture Farage's gurning mug tomorrow morning if you need help rooting for Burnham.
    He's already whinging about the role played by Lowe in their defeat. Doesn't sound very confident to me. Mind you, he was doing the same at Brexit.
    When I went to bed on Brexit night Farage had conceded defeat. Betfair was heading towards 100% on that news. When I got up the following morning Dimbleby said we were leaving. I bet the f***** made a killing.
    I've not doubt some did but the reality is that he was so far away from the main campaign that he really didn't have a clue how it was going. Its bordering on the ridiculous that he gets much credit for the result.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,010
    Sandpit said:

    'Do not travel' advice for Dubai dropped

    The Foreign Office has dropped its advice against travelling to Dubai, but warned British citizens that "the situation remains unpredictable" in the region.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cddl29lg5gro

    President Trump's done a peace dividend.

    That might help with some indirect flight routings, but no-one wants to visit Dubai in the summer!

    45ºC today, and it’s not going to be cooler or less humid until about the end of September!

    Some really cheap hotel deals out there at the moment though.
    I think I'll pass... :lol:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,110

    DavidL said:

    Whew, England avoid the follow on.

    Long tail if Archer is at 8, though.
    Agreed. In some respects England are missing Atkinson more than Stokes given their respective form.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,091
    Foxy said:

    theakes said:

    What if the Conservatives fail at Aberdeen South, maybe finishing third as at the General.
    Dare I say it , "12 hours to save Badenoch's position and political career"!!!
    This seems to have been ignored with all the attention on Burnham.

    As I pointed out she's failed every electoral challenge she's faced as leader.
    Yes, that is what keeps her approval rating up amongst non-Tories 🤣🤣🤣
    Yes. Who am I to disagree with the oracle that is the PB Tory massiv?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,010
    dixiedean said:

    Bad news for The Sun’s push notifications team.

    Their World Cup news alert today cut off on phones at a very unfortunate point, reading

    “TACTICAL BLUNDER: ITV sexism row as Emma Hayes is forced to do World Cup anal...”.

    We’re assuming that’s “analysis”.

    Tactical blunder is correct.

    Keep it tight at the back.
    You've got to hold and give but do it at the right time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,025
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    Just picture Farage's gurning mug tomorrow morning if you need help rooting for Burnham.
    He's already whinging about the role played by Lowe in their defeat. Doesn't sound very confident to me. Mind you, he was doing the same at Brexit.
    Farage seems to have gone to ground. Has he made it up to Makerfield recently?
    Dunno, I pay as little attention to him as I can get away with.
    Generally politicians like to associate with success and victory, which presumably is why half the PLP have been doorknocking in Makerfield.

    So a sign that the canvassing results are looking good would have Farage in Makerfield and Badenoch in Aberdeen. I see that Kemi did make a visit a couple of days ago, but did Farage?

  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,873
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Whew, England avoid the follow on.

    Long tail if Archer is at 8, though.
    Agreed. In some respects England are missing Atkinson more than Stokes given their respective form.
    Long way to go for us. We need to get to 325 minimum to have a realistic chance of winning.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,602
    carnforth said:

    Man arrested after boy injured in zoo crocodile enclosure
    A man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy was left with critical injuries after ending up in a crocodile enclosure.
    ...
    The boy was taken to Addenbrooke's Hospital with serious injuries and is in a critical but stable condition

    A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder and officers added that they do not believe the man and child were known to each other.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czx50n2vj74o

    FFS.

    I mean, it's Norfolk, so they probably are related.
    I'm going out on a limb here but conceivably any man who throws 3-year-olds into crocodile enclosures is not playing with a full deck, to use the legal expression.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,010
    carnforth said:

    Man arrested after boy injured in zoo crocodile enclosure
    A man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy was left with critical injuries after ending up in a crocodile enclosure.
    ...
    The boy was taken to Addenbrooke's Hospital with serious injuries and is in a critical but stable condition

    A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder and officers added that they do not believe the man and child were known to each other.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czx50n2vj74o

    FFS.

    I mean, it's Norfolk, so they probably are related.
    Huntingdon is not in Norfolk.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,091

    carnforth said:

    Man arrested after boy injured in zoo crocodile enclosure
    A man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy was left with critical injuries after ending up in a crocodile enclosure.
    ...
    The boy was taken to Addenbrooke's Hospital with serious injuries and is in a critical but stable condition

    A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder and officers added that they do not believe the man and child were known to each other.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czx50n2vj74o

    FFS.

    I mean, it's Norfolk, so they probably are related.
    I'm going out on a limb here but conceivably any man who throws 3-year-olds into crocodile enclosures is not playing with a full deck, to use the legal expression.
    It's a bit like that little French lad that was thrown from a balcony at the Tate Modern by an evil tw@t.

    What's wrong with people?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,025
    edited 5:43PM

    carnforth said:

    Man arrested after boy injured in zoo crocodile enclosure
    A man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy was left with critical injuries after ending up in a crocodile enclosure.
    ...
    The boy was taken to Addenbrooke's Hospital with serious injuries and is in a critical but stable condition

    A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder and officers added that they do not believe the man and child were known to each other.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czx50n2vj74o

    FFS.

    I mean, it's Norfolk, so they probably are related.
    I'm going out on a limb here but conceivably any man who throws 3-year-olds into crocodile enclosures is not playing with a full deck, to use the legal expression.
    There was someone who chucked a random child off thetop of the Tate a few years back.

    BBC News - Tate Modern balcony push: Teen admits attempted murder - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50692100?app-referrer=deep-link
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,932
    dixiedean said:

    Bad news for The Sun’s push notifications team.

    Their World Cup news alert today cut off on phones at a very unfortunate point, reading

    “TACTICAL BLUNDER: ITV sexism row as Emma Hayes is forced to do World Cup anal...”.

    We’re assuming that’s “analysis”.

    Tactical blunder is correct.

    Keep it tight at the back.
    You've got to hold and give
    But do it at the right time
    You can be slow or fast
    But you must get to the line
    There's only one way to beat them
    Get 'round the back


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Re4aDJL3heA
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,581

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Whew, England avoid the follow on.

    Long tail if Archer is at 8, though.
    Agreed. In some respects England are missing Atkinson more than Stokes given their respective form.
    Long way to go for us. We need to get to 325 minimum to have a realistic chance of winning.
    Seats for a parliamentary majority?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,010
    viewcode said:

    dixiedean said:

    Bad news for The Sun’s push notifications team.

    Their World Cup news alert today cut off on phones at a very unfortunate point, reading

    “TACTICAL BLUNDER: ITV sexism row as Emma Hayes is forced to do World Cup anal...”.

    We’re assuming that’s “analysis”.

    Tactical blunder is correct.

    Keep it tight at the back.
    You've got to hold and give
    But do it at the right time
    You can be slow or fast
    But you must get to the line
    There's only one way to beat them
    Get 'round the back


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Re4aDJL3heA
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5576929/#Comment_5576929
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,091
    Big call from the lady referee.

    I think she got it right too.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,873

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Whew, England avoid the follow on.

    Long tail if Archer is at 8, though.
    Agreed. In some respects England are missing Atkinson more than Stokes given their respective form.
    Long way to go for us. We need to get to 325 minimum to have a realistic chance of winning.
    Seats for a parliamentary majority?
    Very optimistic for CON at the moment!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,311
    I'm sure we used to get a lot more juicy gossip from by-elections 10 or 15 years ago than we seem to do today.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,759

    'Do not travel' advice for Dubai dropped

    I mean, that's my advice regardless of the situation in the region.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,602

    carnforth said:

    Man arrested after boy injured in zoo crocodile enclosure
    A man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy was left with critical injuries after ending up in a crocodile enclosure.
    ...
    The boy was taken to Addenbrooke's Hospital with serious injuries and is in a critical but stable condition

    A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder and officers added that they do not believe the man and child were known to each other.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czx50n2vj74o

    FFS.

    I mean, it's Norfolk, so they probably are related.
    I'm going out on a limb here but conceivably any man who throws 3-year-olds into crocodile enclosures is not playing with a full deck, to use the legal expression.
    It's a bit like that little French lad that was thrown from a balcony at the Tate Modern by an evil tw@t.

    What's wrong with people?
    A mentally ill evil twat; last known address, Broadmoor.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,463
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    Just picture Farage's gurning mug tomorrow morning if you need help rooting for Burnham.
    He's already whinging about the role played by Lowe in their defeat. Doesn't sound very confident to me. Mind you, he was doing the same at Brexit.
    Farage seems to have gone to ground. Has he made it up to Makerfield recently?
    Dunno, I pay as little attention to him as I can get away with.
    Generally politicians like to associate with success and victory, which presumably is why half the PLP have been doorknocking in Makerfield.

    So a sign that the canvassing results are looking good would have Farage in Makerfield and Badenoch in Aberdeen. I see that Kemi did make a visit a couple of days ago, but did Farage?

    Farage's twitter is very active today with photos of him out and about in Makerfield, so he's not trying to pretend the by-election isn't happening, or doesn't matter.

    So on that measure of the campaign it looks foreboding for Burnham.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,080
    31% likely to consider voting Labour would probably enough for them to overtake Reform. If Restpre do well tonight and eat into the Reform vote that would also boost Labour and the Tories
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,463

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    Just picture Farage's gurning mug tomorrow morning if you need help rooting for Burnham.
    He's already whinging about the role played by Lowe in their defeat. Doesn't sound very confident to me. Mind you, he was doing the same at Brexit.
    Farage seems to have gone to ground. Has he made it up to Makerfield recently?
    Dunno, I pay as little attention to him as I can get away with.
    Generally politicians like to associate with success and victory, which presumably is why half the PLP have been doorknocking in Makerfield.

    So a sign that the canvassing results are looking good would have Farage in Makerfield and Badenoch in Aberdeen. I see that Kemi did make a visit a couple of days ago, but did Farage?

    Farage's twitter is very active today with photos of him out and about in Makerfield, so he's not trying to pretend the by-election isn't happening, or doesn't matter.

    So on that measure of the campaign it looks foreboding for Burnham.
    He's been there twice more in the last week (unless he stored up a bunch of photos on his first visit...)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,602
    Young women now have 'close to zero' risk of cervical cancer death after HPV jab
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c621z28z138o

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,080

    theakes said:

    What if the Conservatives fail at Aberdeen South, maybe finishing third as at the General.
    Dare I say it , "12 hours to save Badenoch's position and political career"!!!
    This seems to have been ignored with all the attention on Burnham.

    As I pointed out she's failed every electoral challenge she's faced as leader.
    I thought that Kemi kicked ass in the May locals? HY told me so.


    (They did have a modicum of success in Bradford, as it turns out.)
    Kemi led the Tories to gain Westminster, Enfield, Wandsworth and holding Kensington and Chelsea, Harlow, Fareham, Bromley, Hillingdon, Bexley, Broxbourne and Hampshire.

    A win in Aberdeen South tonight would be the icing on the cake 😀
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,552
    edited 5:58PM

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.

    Just picture Farage's gurning mug tomorrow morning if you need help rooting for Burnham.
    He's already whinging about the role played by Lowe in their defeat. Doesn't sound very confident to me. Mind you, he was doing the same at Brexit.
    Farage seems to have gone to ground. Has he made it up to Makerfield recently?
    Dunno, I pay as little attention to him as I can get away with.
    Generally politicians like to associate with success and victory, which presumably is why half the PLP have been doorknocking in Makerfield.

    So a sign that the canvassing results are looking good would have Farage in Makerfield and Badenoch in Aberdeen. I see that Kemi did make a visit a couple of days ago, but did Farage?

    Farage's twitter is very active today with photos of him out and about in Makerfield, so he's not trying to pretend the by-election isn't happening, or doesn't matter.

    So on that measure of the campaign it looks foreboding for Burnham.
    But is he actually in Makerfield? One of the broadcasts is of him in WIGAN with a "random voter" who is actually a Reform councillor. Not just any Reform councillor either - the one standing by a sign saying "I'd rather vote for Jimmy Savile than Labour".

    Stay classy, Nige...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,620
    If you can get access the cover story from Makerfield by Will Lloyd in Newstatesman is superb.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,869
    edited 5:58PM
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm sure we used to get a lot more juicy gossip from by-elections 10 or 15 years ago than we seem to do today.

    All changed 16 years ago.

    A Labour MP has been given a police caution following an allegation of electoral fraud.

    Bristol East MP Kerry McCarthy, external revealed the results of a sample of postal votes on the social networking site Twitter days before the general election.

    It is illegal to reveal the votes cast before the end of polling day as it may influence the outcome of the election.

    Ms McCarthy, shadow Treasury minister and her party's "Twitter tsar", apologised after the gaffe.

    A spokesman for Avon and Somerset Police said: "Police have confirmed that they have cautioned a man and a woman, both from Bristol, following an investigation into alleged election fraud earlier this year under the Representation of the People Act 1983."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-11621053
  • CharlieSharkCharlieShark Posts: 471

    carnforth said:

    Man arrested after boy injured in zoo crocodile enclosure
    A man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy was left with critical injuries after ending up in a crocodile enclosure.
    ...
    The boy was taken to Addenbrooke's Hospital with serious injuries and is in a critical but stable condition

    A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder and officers added that they do not believe the man and child were known to each other.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czx50n2vj74o

    FFS.

    I mean, it's Norfolk, so they probably are related.
    I'm going out on a limb here but conceivably any man who throws 3-year-olds into crocodile enclosures is not playing with a full deck, to use the legal expression.
    This will be pretty devasting for them. My local farm shop. Gone from a butchers to a zoo over the years. All set up for kids, would be loads of pre-school types there today in the early afternoon. I believe I'm aware of what happened and 'who' it was (not specifically). Think there will be a variety of traumatised people, very sad.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,112
    edited 6:03PM

    Getting nasty at The Oval?
    Quote from the BBC “Very dark over The Oval now. Threatening crowds are lingering as the floodlights kick into life.”

    I’m currently on a ferry from Calais to Dover and the sky looks dark AF over the White Cliffs.
    Looks like Kent got hit by some heavy rain, but only a few drops here in the east London 'burbs.
    Beautiful evening here in Dorset.



    (That's our new garden btw - landscaping more of less done, just needs a lot more plants now.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,552
    dixiedean said:

    Bad news for The Sun’s push notifications team.

    Their World Cup news alert today cut off on phones at a very unfortunate point, reading

    “TACTICAL BLUNDER: ITV sexism row as Emma Hayes is forced to do World Cup anal...”.

    We’re assuming that’s “analysis”.

    Tactical blunder is correct.

    Keep it tight at the back.
    Working with Nicky Butt?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,311

    https://x.com/BNHWalker/status/2067619003040706586

    Quite a pleasant conversation between Lab and Ref activists observed in Hindley just now. Both think it's tight. And both see Restore as a factor.

    "They call us traitors. And I think they'll make the difference" the Ref activist said.

    Told you it would be tight.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,930

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm sure we used to get a lot more juicy gossip from by-elections 10 or 15 years ago than we seem to do today.

    All changed 16 years ago.

    A Labour MP has been given a police caution following an allegation of electoral fraud.

    Bristol East MP Kerry McCarthy, external revealed the results of a sample of postal votes on the social networking site Twitter days before the general election.

    It is illegal to reveal the votes cast before the end of polling day as it may influence the outcome of the election.

    Ms McCarthy, shadow Treasury minister and her party's "Twitter tsar", apologised after the gaffe.

    A spokesman for Avon and Somerset Police said: "Police have confirmed that they have cautioned a man and a woman, both from Bristol, following an investigation into alleged election fraud earlier this year under the Representation of the People Act 1983."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-11621053
    I am sorry but there needs to be a by election and resignation there . It’s pretty clear on the rules
  • Oh Mr Rew, that was braindead, what are you doing man
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,869
    edited 6:05PM
    We’re Rejoining!

    It’s inevitable.

    We hold all the cards.


    UK could keep special pre-Brexit terms if it rejoined EU, Michel Barnier says

    Exclusive: Former chief Brexit negotiator says staying out of euro and Schengen area would be ‘perfectly possible’


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/18/uk-could-keep-special-pre-brexit-terms-if-it-rejoined-eu-michel-barnier-says
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,581
    HYUFD said:

    theakes said:

    What if the Conservatives fail at Aberdeen South, maybe finishing third as at the General.
    Dare I say it , "12 hours to save Badenoch's position and political career"!!!
    This seems to have been ignored with all the attention on Burnham.

    As I pointed out she's failed every electoral challenge she's faced as leader.
    I thought that Kemi kicked ass in the May locals? HY told me so.


    (They did have a modicum of success in Bradford, as it turns out.)
    Kemi led the Tories to gain Westminster, Enfield, Wandsworth and holding Kensington and Chelsea, Harlow, Fareham, Bromley, Hillingdon, Bexley, Broxbourne and Hampshire.

    A win in Aberdeen South tonight would be the icing on the cake 😀
    That short list was crumbs from the table, compared to the huge losses inflicted on the Tories in the rest of the country. A huge arc in the South East. The North West. Scotland. Wales. But I concede, not Bradford. A net gain, and second in seats behind Reform.

    So if you win in Aberdeen South, that will be icing on the crumbs.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,378

    Oh Mr Rew, that was braindead, what are you doing man

    Classic case of a bright young prospect kept waiting too long for a chance should have been 2 seasons ago
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,311
    Matt Goodwin calls out Restore supporters.

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/2067643603841622228

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ
    Having been in Makerfield all day & seen the Restore operation up close I can confidently say these are the last people Britain needs.

    Do you know who they remind me of? The pro-Gaza independents.

    Thugs. And Bullies.

    It doesn’t matter what the result is. Their activists are a disgrace.

    Britain deserves better."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,110
    edited 6:09PM
    dixiedean said:
    Well, its about time. Who was it?

    Was it impersonating a political party for financial gain or something else?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,112

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm sure we used to get a lot more juicy gossip from by-elections 10 or 15 years ago than we seem to do today.

    All changed 16 years ago.

    A Labour MP has been given a police caution following an allegation of electoral fraud.

    Bristol East MP Kerry McCarthy, external revealed the results of a sample of postal votes on the social networking site Twitter days before the general election.

    It is illegal to reveal the votes cast before the end of polling day as it may influence the outcome of the election.

    Ms McCarthy, shadow Treasury minister and her party's "Twitter tsar", apologised after the gaffe.

    A spokesman for Avon and Somerset Police said: "Police have confirmed that they have cautioned a man and a woman, both from Bristol, following an investigation into alleged election fraud earlier this year under the Representation of the People Act 1983."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-11621053
    I am sorry but there needs to be a by election and resignation there . It’s pretty clear on the rules
    Bit late for that shirley? This was from 2010.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,552

    Man arrested after boy injured in zoo crocodile enclosure
    A man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy was left with critical injuries after ending up in a crocodile enclosure.
    ...
    The boy was taken to Addenbrooke's Hospital with serious injuries and is in a critical but stable condition

    A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder and officers added that they do not believe the man and child were known to each other.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czx50n2vj74o

    FFS.

    I know the fitting punishment.

    I mean, it wouldn't STRICTLY be capital punishment. He might turn out to be a croc-whisperer...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,084
    dixiedean said:
    You’re joking? Not another one!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,581

    We’re Rejoining!

    It’s inevitable.

    We hold all the cards.


    UK could keep special pre-Brexit terms if it rejoined EU, Michel Barnier says

    Exclusive: Former chief Brexit negotiator says staying out of euro and Schengen area would be ‘perfectly possible’


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/18/uk-could-keep-special-pre-brexit-terms-if-it-rejoined-eu-michel-barnier-says

    Deny us the best two features of membership?

    Typical EU arrogance.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,513

    Young women now have 'close to zero' risk of cervical cancer death after HPV jab
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c621z28z138o

    5 deaths per year out of a cohort of about 1,500,000(?) is 'close to zero' too
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,084
    A Tewkesbury by-election would be a big test for Kemi Badenoch. The Tories should win it in these circumstances.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tewkesbury_(constituency)#Elections_since_1997
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,869

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm sure we used to get a lot more juicy gossip from by-elections 10 or 15 years ago than we seem to do today.

    All changed 16 years ago.

    A Labour MP has been given a police caution following an allegation of electoral fraud.

    Bristol East MP Kerry McCarthy, external revealed the results of a sample of postal votes on the social networking site Twitter days before the general election.

    It is illegal to reveal the votes cast before the end of polling day as it may influence the outcome of the election.

    Ms McCarthy, shadow Treasury minister and her party's "Twitter tsar", apologised after the gaffe.

    A spokesman for Avon and Somerset Police said: "Police have confirmed that they have cautioned a man and a woman, both from Bristol, following an investigation into alleged election fraud earlier this year under the Representation of the People Act 1983."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-11621053
    I am sorry but there needs to be a by election and resignation there . It’s pretty clear on the rules
    It was 16 years ago, the voters have re-elected her four times.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,378
    HYUFD said:

    theakes said:

    What if the Conservatives fail at Aberdeen South, maybe finishing third as at the General.
    Dare I say it , "12 hours to save Badenoch's position and political career"!!!
    This seems to have been ignored with all the attention on Burnham.

    As I pointed out she's failed every electoral challenge she's faced as leader.
    I thought that Kemi kicked ass in the May locals? HY told me so.


    (They did have a modicum of success in Bradford, as it turns out.)
    Kemi led the Tories to gain Westminster, Enfield, Wandsworth and holding Kensington and Chelsea, Harlow, Fareham, Bromley, Hillingdon, Bexley, Broxbourne and Hampshire.

    A win in Aberdeen South tonight would be the icing on the cake 😀
    Losing seats in Councils you winon a lower vote share is embarrassing. Not cause for celebration.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,010

    We’re Rejoining!

    It’s inevitable.

    We hold all the cards.


    UK could keep special pre-Brexit terms if it rejoined EU, Michel Barnier says

    Exclusive: Former chief Brexit negotiator says staying out of euro and Schengen area would be ‘perfectly possible’


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/18/uk-could-keep-special-pre-brexit-terms-if-it-rejoined-eu-michel-barnier-says

    Leave 52%

    Remain 48%

    :innocent:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,620
    dixiedean said:
    Reform + Con in 2024 could have just about have pipped this one.

    Might be a massive by-election.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,389

    We’re Rejoining!

    It’s inevitable.

    We hold all the cards.


    UK could keep special pre-Brexit terms if it rejoined EU, Michel Barnier says

    Exclusive: Former chief Brexit negotiator says staying out of euro and Schengen area would be ‘perfectly possible’


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/18/uk-could-keep-special-pre-brexit-terms-if-it-rejoined-eu-michel-barnier-says

    Deny us the best two features of membership?

    Typical EU arrogance.
    That was my reaction. Do away with the annoying passport queue malarkey, and have lower government debt interest.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,313
    "Varley's evil and graphic sexual abuse is beyond contempt. I don't believe a general extrapolation should be made because Varley was either, white, male, a teacher or gay."

    Well, one of those characteristics is a risk factor for crime - and particularly for sexual crimes against children: being male. His partner was also convicted of various offences. And he, Varley, was not just a teacher but safeguarding lead at his school.

    That does not mean that no men should ever adopt. It should mean that those doing the due diligence need to be very very thorough in their assessment - of character, history, motivation, lifestyle, ability to look after a baby, understanding of what looking after a very young baby involves and ability to do so - ie the emotional resilience to cope with a baby's needs and helping him thrive and develop, family support, female involvement, friends, hobbies etc etc . And not just all that.

    Those doing the due diligence need a sceptical investigative mind.

    The adoption went through pretty quickly. How good, how extensive was the due diligence? Did they pick up his extensive viewing of seriously revolting porn? Did they ask to look at his and his partner's computer and phones? Did they take too much comfort from the fact that he was a teacher and safeguarding lead and so relied on that rather than carry out their own inquiries? This is a classic trap and one which fraudsters and wrongdoers of all types exploit: they get past one check and then never get properly checked again because everyone else relies on that one check. And was this couple really the best set of adoptive parents to be found in Oldham?

    Even very intelligent people can be horrifyingly naive about offenders and offences and what stones to turn over to look for them. And very naive about the lengths deviant people like Varley and his partner will go to to satisfy their deviancy.

    Remember this case when people start talking about making surrogacy even easier than it is. There are far fewer checks than with adoptions and there has already been one horrific case in the US of two men buying a surrogate baby for the purpose of sexual abuse. Babies are not commodities to be bought and sold.

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,975
    Been at the cricket all day... is it going to be Andy Burnham mp?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,110

    Been at the cricket all day... is it going to be Andy Burnham mp?

    MP and PM.

    But I bet the cricket was more interesting.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,313

    carnforth said:

    Man arrested after boy injured in zoo crocodile enclosure
    A man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy was left with critical injuries after ending up in a crocodile enclosure.
    ...
    The boy was taken to Addenbrooke's Hospital with serious injuries and is in a critical but stable condition

    A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder and officers added that they do not believe the man and child were known to each other.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czx50n2vj74o

    FFS.

    I mean, it's Norfolk, so they probably are related.
    I'm going out on a limb here but conceivably any man who throws 3-year-olds into crocodile enclosures is not playing with a full deck, to use the legal expression.
    It's a bit like that little French lad that was thrown from a balcony at the Tate Modern by an evil tw@t.

    What's wrong with people?
    A mentally ill evil twat; last known address, Broadmoor.
    Rather sadly the French boy has had a relapse. He was starting to be able to walk again but there has been a setback in his condition. Let's hope that it is only temporary.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Matt Goodwin calls out Restore supporters.

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/2067643603841622228

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ
    Having been in Makerfield all day & seen the Restore operation up close I can confidently say these are the last people Britain needs.

    Do you know who they remind me of? The pro-Gaza independents.

    Thugs. And Bullies.

    It doesn’t matter what the result is. Their activists are a disgrace.

    Britain deserves better."

    Matt Goodwin is such a plank.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,192

    Young women now have 'close to zero' risk of cervical cancer death after HPV jab
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c621z28z138o

    5 deaths per year out of a cohort of about 1,500,000(?) is 'close to zero' too
    Yes. That’s the point, isn’t it? The vaccine was introduced in 2008, so we’d expect to see some effect in 2015-19, and more in the most recent period.
  • DavidL said:

    Been at the cricket all day... is it going to be Andy Burnham mp?

    MP and PM.

    But I bet the cricket was more interesting.
    England were dismal, I felt it in my bones yesterday
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,620

    Ashley Armstrong
    @AArmstrong_says

    EXCL: Andy Burnham has drafted in former chair of OBR, Richard Hughes, to advise on fiscal rules. Burnham is still trying to live down “in hock to the bond markets” comments
    Hughes stepped down from OBR in Dec after it leaked the Budget prematurely online

    https://x.com/AArmstrong_says/status/2067641925679620117
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,389
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:
    Well, its about time. Who was it?

    Was it impersonating a political party for financial gain or something else?
    In descending order of political damage:

    1. Murder or rape
    2. Child abuse
    3. Domestic abuse
    4. Fraud or embezzlement
    5. GBH
    6. Assault
    7. Drug dealing
    8. Shoplifting
    9. Drug use

    Other crimes are available: I listed some common middle aged middle class options.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,192
    dixiedean said:
    If found guilty and more than a 12 month sentence, then automatic ejection from the Commons. If a custodial sentence of lass than 12 months, then there’s a recall petition, which would probably pass. Or obv if he resigns.

    But we don’t even know what the charge is, and innocent until proven guilty and all that.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,746
    dixiedean said:
    Tewkesbury Should be close enough to be interesting.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,025

    Young women now have 'close to zero' risk of cervical cancer death after HPV jab
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c621z28z138o

    5 deaths per year out of a cohort of about 1,500,000(?) is 'close to zero' too
    Yes, the programme started in 2008, so that cohort would be mostly vaccinated.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,620
    Cyclefree said:

    "Varley's evil and graphic sexual abuse is beyond contempt. I don't believe a general extrapolation should be made because Varley was either, white, male, a teacher or gay."

    Well, one of those characteristics is a risk factor for crime - and particularly for sexual crimes against children: being male. His partner was also convicted of various offences. And he, Varley, was not just a teacher but safeguarding lead at his school.

    That does not mean that no men should ever adopt. It should mean that those doing the due diligence need to be very very thorough in their assessment - of character, history, motivation, lifestyle, ability to look after a baby, understanding of what looking after a very young baby involves and ability to do so - ie the emotional resilience to cope with a baby's needs and helping him thrive and develop, family support, female involvement, friends, hobbies etc etc . And not just all that.

    Those doing the due diligence need a sceptical investigative mind.

    The adoption went through pretty quickly. How good, how extensive was the due diligence? Did they pick up his extensive viewing of seriously revolting porn? Did they ask to look at his and his partner's computer and phones? Did they take too much comfort from the fact that he was a teacher and safeguarding lead and so relied on that rather than carry out their own inquiries? This is a classic trap and one which fraudsters and wrongdoers of all types exploit: they get past one check and then never get properly checked again because everyone else relies on that one check. And was this couple really the best set of adoptive parents to be found in Oldham?

    Even very intelligent people can be horrifyingly naive about offenders and offences and what stones to turn over to look for them. And very naive about the lengths deviant people like Varley and his partner will go to to satisfy their deviancy.

    Remember this case when people start talking about making surrogacy even easier than it is. There are far fewer checks than with adoptions and there has already been one horrific case in the US of two men buying a surrogate baby for the purpose of sexual abuse. Babies are not commodities to be bought and sold.

    You raise many good points as to whether social workers did X or Y.

    My experience from interacting with them over adult social care is they are under intense time pressure as the caseload is bonkers.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,192

    dixiedean said:
    If found guilty and more than a 12 month sentence, then automatic ejection from the Commons. If a custodial sentence of lass than 12 months, then there’s a recall petition, which would probably pass. Or obv if he resigns.

    But we don’t even know what the charge is, and innocent until proven guilty and all that.
    He flew in the RAF. He travelled to the frontline in Ukraine last year to deliver aid, and was afterwards accused of sending inappropriate “intimate” WhatsApp messages to a translator.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,918
    Even though Starmer will likely soon be gone it's nice he's finding time to get some exposure through appearing on the latest video from Chris Spargo (the chap who releases videos about why supermarkets often have clock towers and who makes the common types of public bin - they're great).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,666

    A Tewkesbury by-election would be a big test for Kemi Badenoch. The Tories should win it in these circumstances.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tewkesbury_(constituency)#Elections_since_1997

    Electoral Calculus predicts the Tories third.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,359
    MelonB said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:
    Well, its about time. Who was it?

    Was it impersonating a political party for financial gain or something else?
    In descending order of political damage:

    1. Murder or rape
    2. Child abuse
    3. Domestic abuse
    4. Fraud or embezzlement
    5. GBH
    6. Assault
    7. Drug dealing
    8. Shoplifting
    9. Drug use

    Other crimes are available: I listed some common middle aged middle class options.
    Arrested in the evening, not a dawn raid. Does that narrow it down?

    Place your bets now. But maybe not on PB!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,918
    Foxy said:

    theakes said:

    What if the Conservatives fail at Aberdeen South, maybe finishing third as at the General.
    Dare I say it , "12 hours to save Badenoch's position and political career"!!!
    This seems to have been ignored with all the attention on Burnham.

    As I pointed out she's failed every electoral challenge she's faced as leader.
    Yes, that is what keeps her approval rating up amongst non-Tories 🤣🤣🤣
    She's not terrible. But she's also not up to the task - perhaps no one is.

    I would be astonished if they don't finish behind Reform in the Scottish by-elections. When 1/4-1/3 of her own vote still secretly prefer Reform, it's not a very secure position from which to launch a restoration.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,110

    Cyclefree said:

    "Varley's evil and graphic sexual abuse is beyond contempt. I don't believe a general extrapolation should be made because Varley was either, white, male, a teacher or gay."

    Well, one of those characteristics is a risk factor for crime - and particularly for sexual crimes against children: being male. His partner was also convicted of various offences. And he, Varley, was not just a teacher but safeguarding lead at his school.

    That does not mean that no men should ever adopt. It should mean that those doing the due diligence need to be very very thorough in their assessment - of character, history, motivation, lifestyle, ability to look after a baby, understanding of what looking after a very young baby involves and ability to do so - ie the emotional resilience to cope with a baby's needs and helping him thrive and develop, family support, female involvement, friends, hobbies etc etc . And not just all that.

    Those doing the due diligence need a sceptical investigative mind.

    The adoption went through pretty quickly. How good, how extensive was the due diligence? Did they pick up his extensive viewing of seriously revolting porn? Did they ask to look at his and his partner's computer and phones? Did they take too much comfort from the fact that he was a teacher and safeguarding lead and so relied on that rather than carry out their own inquiries? This is a classic trap and one which fraudsters and wrongdoers of all types exploit: they get past one check and then never get properly checked again because everyone else relies on that one check. And was this couple really the best set of adoptive parents to be found in Oldham?

    Even very intelligent people can be horrifyingly naive about offenders and offences and what stones to turn over to look for them. And very naive about the lengths deviant people like Varley and his partner will go to to satisfy their deviancy.

    Remember this case when people start talking about making surrogacy even easier than it is. There are far fewer checks than with adoptions and there has already been one horrific case in the US of two men buying a surrogate baby for the purpose of sexual abuse. Babies are not commodities to be bought and sold.

    You raise many good points as to whether social workers did X or Y.

    My experience from interacting with them over adult social care is they are under intense time pressure as the caseload is bonkers.

    Quite some time ago now I used to do adoption reports for the court. I must say that I do not recall doing any of the kinds of investigations that @Cyclefree is mentioning although, in fairness, the internet was nothing like such a thing in those days. I took it pretty seriously and kept an eye out for anything that seemed "off" but it was at its heart largely a tick box exercise. I can only recall one case where I recommended against adoption.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,091

    We’re Rejoining!

    It’s inevitable.

    We hold all the cards.


    UK could keep special pre-Brexit terms if it rejoined EU, Michel Barnier says

    Exclusive: Former chief Brexit negotiator says staying out of euro and Schengen area would be ‘perfectly possible’


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/18/uk-could-keep-special-pre-brexit-terms-if-it-rejoined-eu-michel-barnier-says

    Leave 52%

    Remain 48%

    :innocent:
    Innocent or not. Do you know how annoying it is when you wheel out that post?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,918
    Andy_JS said:

    Matt Goodwin calls out Restore supporters.

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/2067643603841622228

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ
    Having been in Makerfield all day & seen the Restore operation up close I can confidently say these are the last people Britain needs.

    Do you know who they remind me of? The pro-Gaza independents.

    Thugs. And Bullies.

    It doesn’t matter what the result is. Their activists are a disgrace.

    Britain deserves better."

    Finally found a line not to cross, or just because having so recently been a candidate for Reform he cannot realistically say Restore are better?

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,390
    Brixian59 said:

    Oh Mr Rew, that was braindead, what are you doing man

    Classic case of a bright young prospect kept waiting too long for a chance should have been 2 seasons ago
    FFS it’s one innings. You lot are worse than the England selectors in the 80’s.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,389

    Cyclefree said:

    "Varley's evil and graphic sexual abuse is beyond contempt. I don't believe a general extrapolation should be made because Varley was either, white, male, a teacher or gay."

    Well, one of those characteristics is a risk factor for crime - and particularly for sexual crimes against children: being male. His partner was also convicted of various offences. And he, Varley, was not just a teacher but safeguarding lead at his school.

    That does not mean that no men should ever adopt. It should mean that those doing the due diligence need to be very very thorough in their assessment - of character, history, motivation, lifestyle, ability to look after a baby, understanding of what looking after a very young baby involves and ability to do so - ie the emotional resilience to cope with a baby's needs and helping him thrive and develop, family support, female involvement, friends, hobbies etc etc . And not just all that.

    Those doing the due diligence need a sceptical investigative mind.

    The adoption went through pretty quickly. How good, how extensive was the due diligence? Did they pick up his extensive viewing of seriously revolting porn? Did they ask to look at his and his partner's computer and phones? Did they take too much comfort from the fact that he was a teacher and safeguarding lead and so relied on that rather than carry out their own inquiries? This is a classic trap and one which fraudsters and wrongdoers of all types exploit: they get past one check and then never get properly checked again because everyone else relies on that one check. And was this couple really the best set of adoptive parents to be found in Oldham?

    Even very intelligent people can be horrifyingly naive about offenders and offences and what stones to turn over to look for them. And very naive about the lengths deviant people like Varley and his partner will go to to satisfy their deviancy.

    Remember this case when people start talking about making surrogacy even easier than it is. There are far fewer checks than with adoptions and there has already been one horrific case in the US of two men buying a surrogate baby for the purpose of sexual abuse. Babies are not commodities to be bought and sold.

    You raise many good points as to whether social workers did X or Y.

    My experience from interacting with them over adult social care is they are under intense time pressure as the caseload is bonkers.

    Yes but let's not ignore the sentiments behind the post.

    Is she arguing gay men looking to adopt should be subjected to more scrutiny than straight men who are in a relationship with a woman? Because they are innately more dangerous? I suspect she is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,918

    Brixian59 said:

    Oh Mr Rew, that was braindead, what are you doing man

    Classic case of a bright young prospect kept waiting too long for a chance should have been 2 seasons ago
    FFS it’s one innings. You lot are worse than the England selectors in the 80’s.
    Exactly - remember how people reacted after the first innings of the last game? And that looked worse!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,084
    https://x.com/clashreport/status/2067645799677256049

    JD Vance blasts Ben-Gvir and Smotrich:

    You’ve seen people in their system, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, who’ve attacked the deal.

    And I guess my response to them would be: What is your exact proposal?

    You’re a country of 9 million people. You can’t just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,038
    .

    Young women now have 'close to zero' risk of cervical cancer death after HPV jab
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c621z28z138o

    A very expensive program developing and funding the vaccine, but certainly worth it.

    It's pretty likely it will also reduce deaths from mouth and throat cancer, for the obvious reason, but that will take longer to show statistically.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,580


    Ashley Armstrong
    @AArmstrong_says

    EXCL: Andy Burnham has drafted in former chair of OBR, Richard Hughes, to advise on fiscal rules. Burnham is still trying to live down “in hock to the bond markets” comments
    Hughes stepped down from OBR in Dec after it leaked the Budget prematurely online

    https://x.com/AArmstrong_says/status/2067641925679620117

    Good call, Hughes is great. Get him to advise on tax policy while he's at it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,084
    MelonB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    "Varley's evil and graphic sexual abuse is beyond contempt. I don't believe a general extrapolation should be made because Varley was either, white, male, a teacher or gay."

    Well, one of those characteristics is a risk factor for crime - and particularly for sexual crimes against children: being male. His partner was also convicted of various offences. And he, Varley, was not just a teacher but safeguarding lead at his school.

    That does not mean that no men should ever adopt. It should mean that those doing the due diligence need to be very very thorough in their assessment - of character, history, motivation, lifestyle, ability to look after a baby, understanding of what looking after a very young baby involves and ability to do so - ie the emotional resilience to cope with a baby's needs and helping him thrive and develop, family support, female involvement, friends, hobbies etc etc . And not just all that.

    Those doing the due diligence need a sceptical investigative mind.

    The adoption went through pretty quickly. How good, how extensive was the due diligence? Did they pick up his extensive viewing of seriously revolting porn? Did they ask to look at his and his partner's computer and phones? Did they take too much comfort from the fact that he was a teacher and safeguarding lead and so relied on that rather than carry out their own inquiries? This is a classic trap and one which fraudsters and wrongdoers of all types exploit: they get past one check and then never get properly checked again because everyone else relies on that one check. And was this couple really the best set of adoptive parents to be found in Oldham?

    Even very intelligent people can be horrifyingly naive about offenders and offences and what stones to turn over to look for them. And very naive about the lengths deviant people like Varley and his partner will go to to satisfy their deviancy.

    Remember this case when people start talking about making surrogacy even easier than it is. There are far fewer checks than with adoptions and there has already been one horrific case in the US of two men buying a surrogate baby for the purpose of sexual abuse. Babies are not commodities to be bought and sold.

    You raise many good points as to whether social workers did X or Y.

    My experience from interacting with them over adult social care is they are under intense time pressure as the caseload is bonkers.

    Yes but let's not ignore the sentiments behind the post.

    Is she arguing gay men looking to adopt should be subjected to more scrutiny than straight men who are in a relationship with a woman? Because they are innately more dangerous? I suspect she is.
    I believe the highest risk to children comes from men who are not their biological parent, so if there are two of them, the risk is going to be higher.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,918

    https://x.com/clashreport/status/2067645799677256049

    JD Vance blasts Ben-Gvir and Smotrich:

    You’ve seen people in their system, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, who’ve attacked the deal.

    And I guess my response to them would be: What is your exact proposal?

    You’re a country of 9 million people. You can’t just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have.

    I guess having tried it himself now Vance realises the truth of those words.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,192
    What does Christopher Harbornes get for his millions in donations to Farage and Reform UK? https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/18/nigel-farage-trying-block-britcoin-crypto-plans-bank-of-england-christopher-harborne
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