politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling week opens with LAB and CON level-pegging with

"The last time that Populus had CON & LAB level-pegging was Dec 21st 2014. Then it was 35% each - today's poll 32% for both."

That needs more discussion. 6% going somewhere. Kippers seem flat, LDs mired, Greens might get a bit I suppose. Where are the rest?

And first.

Re: the Straw and Rifkind variety and talent show:

A few years ago I suggested that MPs should fill out timesheets: e.g. I was in the house on these mornings, afternoons and evenings, I held constituency surgeries at these hours, I was in select committees at these times.

Many of us are expected to fill out timesheets in complex work situations (*); MPs should as well. Let the constituents know what they are doing with their time to earn their money.

I'd say the same for top council bods as well, if they earn more than £70,000 off the state.

(*) Including, in one job, predictive ones: they wanted the weekly timesheets (which were filled out on an hour-by-hour basis) on the Thursday for the next day.

Anorak said:

"The last time that Populus had CON & LAB level-pegging was Dec 21st 2014. Then it was 35% each - today's poll 32% for both."

That needs more discussion. 6% going somewhere. Kippers seem flat, LDs mired, Greens might get a bit I suppose. Where are the rest?

And first.

Populus a few weeks ago changed their methodology that was favourable to UKIP.

Roger said:

FPT. I wrote yesterday that an MP who I know said he was helping a constituent with a problem when this constituent said the trouble with MP's is you never get to see them to which he replied "I'm sitting here in your kitchen!"

After I read this mornings expose it occurred to me....I wonder how many Tory MP's would visit a constituent living in a tenement block to help them with a problem? Being an MP seems to be whatever you want it to be

How many Tory MPs have tenement blocks in their constituencies ?

tlg86 said:

Anorak said:

"The last time that Populus had CON & LAB level-pegging was Dec 21st 2014. Then it was 35% each - today's poll 32% for both."

That needs more discussion. 6% going somewhere. Kippers seem flat, LDs mired, Greens might get a bit I suppose. Where are the rest?

And first.

Ukip were on 12% and the Greens were on 4% back in December.

Fair enough, it was more a comment on the lack of a strong leader in the polling. When was the last time we had a General election when no party was above, say, 38%? IGNORE THIS

If, in 2010, someone had told me that both main parties would be bumping along in the low 30s by the next election, I'd have assumed that person was an idiot. The outcome of this election is going to dissected 9 ways to Sunday in terms of how democratic it is (or isn't).

And then nothing will change...

Anorak said:

tlg86 said:

Anorak said:

"The last time that Populus had CON & LAB level-pegging was Dec 21st 2014. Then it was 35% each - today's poll 32% for both."

That needs more discussion. 6% going somewhere. Kippers seem flat, LDs mired, Greens might get a bit I suppose. Where are the rest?

And first.

Ukip were on 12% and the Greens were on 4% back in December.

Fiar enough, it was more a comment on the lack of a strong leader in the polling. When was the last time we had a General election when no party was above, say, 38%?

Apart from the last one, and the one before. Ok, that's a sign. I give up for the day.

Anorak said:

tlg86 said:

Anorak said:

"The last time that Populus had CON & LAB level-pegging was Dec 21st 2014. Then it was 35% each - today's poll 32% for both."

That needs more discussion. 6% going somewhere. Kippers seem flat, LDs mired, Greens might get a bit I suppose. Where are the rest?

And first.

Ukip were on 12% and the Greens were on 4% back in December.

Fair enough, it was more a comment on the lack of a strong leader in the polling. When was the last time we had a General election when no party was above, say, 38%? IGNORE THIS

If, in 2010, someone had told me that both main parties would be bumping along in the low 30s by the next election, I'd have assumed that person was an idiot. The outcome of this election is going to dissected 9 ways to Sunday in terms of how democratic it is (or isn't).

And then nothing will change...

In 2005 and 2010 no party polled 38%

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Tissue_Price said:

As it is, the Tories have a 32.2-32.0 lead in Populus. If we re-weight the Turnout Weighted figures to give a 50-50 male:female split (though it was 51-49 last time according to MORI), the lead disappears and we have a 32.1-32.1 tie.

Whataboutery of the highest order.

Cool - so that's the first of the 6 Tory leads I've called today.

Thinking about it. We could have five polls today.

Does a higher percentage of men than women vote? I genuinely don't know. I heard someone on the radio rabbiting on about how about 9m women had not voted at the last election but I did not get the impression that was worse than men.

If the same proportions do vote at the end of the day to weight the vote in terms of men at this stage simply because they claim to be more certain seems a little odd.

DavidL said:

Does a higher percentage of men than women vote? I genuinely don't know. I heard someone on the radio rabbiting on about how about 9m women had not voted at the last election but I did not get the impression that was worse than men.

If the same proportions do vote at the end of the day to weight the vote in terms of men at this stage simply because they claim to be more certain seems a little odd.

the short pink bus will change it all.

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

FPT. I wrote yesterday that an MP who I know said he was helping a constituent with a problem when this constituent said the trouble with MP's is you never get to see them to which he replied "I'm sitting here in your kitchen!"

After I read this mornings expose it occurred to me....I wonder how many Tory MP's would visit a constituent living in a tenement block to help them with a problem? Being an MP seems to be whatever you want it to be

How many Tory MPs have tenement blocks in their constituencies ?

Any in Scotland's cities ... well, Mr Mundell would perhaps qualify because of Dumfries.

Dumfries is not in his constituency. Peebles is and does have some tenements.

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/569810749759090688

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/569810749759090688

Good result for Cameron. Two messy bun fights, and a 1 on 1 with Ed.

A four way with Farage would have been worst outcome.

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/569810749759090688

Rather like reading the Breakfast Menu on the Titanic....

That last debate could be potentially massive. The whole Tory narrative of the election campaign that you don't want Miliband as PM will either be undermined or reinforced depending on how it goes. There'll be little chance for the party that comes off worst to rectify it in the last week as well.

chestnut said:

Ashcroft: Lab lead 1
ComRes Phone: Con lead 1
Comres Web: Lab lead 2
ICM: Con lead 4
Ipsos: Lab lead 2
Opinium: Con lead 2
Populus: Tie
Survation: Con lead 1
TNS: Lab lead 7 (chuckle)
Yougov: Lab lead 1

What strikes me as most interesting is not all of the polls, but the clear split between online and phone polls.

Can we have a thread on their relative accuracy?

TGOHF said:

Tissue_Price said:

https://twi759090688

I thought the debates were off ?

I think they probably are. This is presumably an attempt from the broadcasters to create a bit of momentum.

JosiasJessop said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Welcome back, Mr. Jessop.

Thanks to you and Mark, but I'm not sure how often I'll be posting.

My free time has disappeared into a big (but extremely lovely) seven-month old baby. I used to work near full-time and be able to post on here whilst waiting for compilations or running test harnesses. I'm now not working but looking after the baby, and I find every minute seems filled up ...

It's not a paid job, but it's brilliant. I could recommend it to any man: get your wives up the duff, then send them out to work so you can look after the baby. You can then say you're a modern man (tm). ;-)

Nice to hear from you and to learn of your news. I was thinking of you and @Dr_Spyn the other day when reading a fascinating new book called 'The Railway: British track since 1804' by Andrew Dow from the library, and learning that the Victorians tried using glass for sleepers - admittedly annealed glass, but even so it's a nice comparison with our last chat, re concrete armour on tanks ...

Search for 'glass' in

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=wG9tBQAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=the+railway+andrew+dow&hl=en&sa=X&ei=7gfrVO7BDcTR7Qbl0YHYBQ&ved=0CCAQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=glass&f=false

Roger said:

Jessops

"A few years ago I suggested that MPs should fill out timesheets: e.g. I was in the house on these mornings, afternoons and evenings, I held constituency surgeries at these hours, I was in select committees at these times."

First they came for the bankers.....then they came for the tax avoiders......then they came for the MP's....next they'll be coming for the luvvies.......the bastards!!

Dave does this every Wednesday at the outset of PMQs doesn't he?

JosiasJessop said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Welcome back, Mr. Jessop.

Thanks to you and Mark, but I'm not sure how often I'll be posting.

My free time has disappeared into a big (but extremely lovely) seven-month old baby. I used to work near full-time and be able to post on here whilst waiting for compilations or running test harnesses. I'm now not working but looking after the baby, and I find every minute seems filled up ...

It's not a paid job, but it's brilliant. I could recommend it to any man: get your wives up the duff, then send them out to work so you can look after the baby. You can then say you're a modern man (tm). ;-)

Good luck and enjoy the time.

A word of advice about the care of 7 month old babies. There is a thing called an electoral cycle. The run up to a general election sees a proliferation of a sub species of human, 'the evil baby eating tories' Please be wary and on your guard between now and 8th of May for sneaky attacks from these vermin who will be trying to gain your trust.

Chestnut.

chestnutchestnut Posts: 1,049
10:29AM
Ashcroft: Lab lead 1
ComRes Phone: Con lead 1
Comres Web: Lab lead 2
ICM: Con lead 4
Ipsos: Lab lead 2
Opinium: Con lead 2
Populus: Tie
Survation: Con lead 1
TNS: Lab lead 7 (chuckle)
Yougov: Lab lead 1

I remember writing once that you managed to give your statistics a Tory bias to which you replied 'not at all you were a humble seeker after truth and simply went where the figures took you.

Chuckle!

TGOHF said:

Tissue_Price said:

TGOHF said:

Tissue_Price said:

https://twi759090688

I thought the debates were off ?

I think they probably are. This is presumably an attempt from the broadcasters to create a bit of momentum.

Someone at some time has to call them off... who is going to pull the trigger ?

Margaret Beckett?

Oh! Sorry, I thought you said who is going to pull Trigger

FPT Flightpath:
"An MP gets paid, or should get paid, not for what he does 9 - 5 but for his judgement.
That judgement can come from different angles (which is where I use my judgemnt in voting), but leaving aside political differences , the point about government is that for the most part there are often no clear right or wrong choices, only choices."

Yes, I agree. The wording suggests that you're actually a current MP - is that right? I think it's fine if you choose not to identify yourself (enables you to write without constantly reviewing it for "MP commits gaffe" headlines), just interested that we have another professional on board.

Today's Marf cartoon added to header

Alanbrooke said:

Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.

Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.

antifrank said:

Alanbrooke said:

Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.

Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.

Although it does give a veto to 4% of the voters (or arguably 2%+1). Hardly democratic.

Charles said:

antifrank said:

Alanbrooke said:

Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.

Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.

Although it does give a veto to 4% of the voters (or arguably 2%+1). Hardly democratic.

We are living in a country that is slowly and asymmetrically federalising. We need to think through how we protect the interests of the smaller parts of that emerging federation if it is to survive. Perhaps the Australian system of needing a national majority and a majority in a majority of the component parts might work.

MikeSmithson said:

Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE

@tnewtondunn: Reasonably clear now that Rifkind will not be a Tory MP by the end of today.

Free money?

Great 'toon Marf. I feel that it applies to some of the politicians all of the time, but not, hopefully, all the politicians all of the time.

TGOHF said:

Scott_P said:

MikeSmithson said:

Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE

@tnewtondunn: Reasonably clear now that Rifkind will not be a Tory MP by the end of today.

Free money?

Ideal for Boris ?

He's already got Uxbridge.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well I'm not sure if this will be a help or hindrance


@HuffPostUKPol: Tony Blair wades in to defend Jack Straw's integrity after cash for access sting http://t.co/FQmi2QLKcs http://t.co/zgl9y62imQ

Methinks a hindrance.

Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE

If I can find that bet I'm on.

http://t.co/3L09gd0U8I

I was only allowed a small stake though.

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well I'm not sure if this will be a help or hindrance


@HuffPostUKPol: Tony Blair wades in to defend Jack Straw's integrity after cash for access sting http://t.co/FQmi2QLKcs http://t.co/zgl9y62imQ

Methinks a hindrance.

Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE

If I can find that bet I'm on.

http://t.co/3L09gd0U8I

I was only allowed a small stake though.

Cheers.

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

Scott_P said:

MikeSmithson said:

Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE

@tnewtondunn: Reasonably clear now that Rifkind will not be a Tory MP by the end of today.

Free money?

Ideal for Boris ?

He's already got Uxbridge.

Which is to the Conservative Party's shame. Boris already has a job that is supposed to be meaningful: trying to be an MP as well demeans both the 'job' of Mayor of London and Boris himself.

If I was a Londoner, I would not vote for the Conservative candidate in the next mayoral election for exactly that reason. Thankfully, I'm not a Londoner...

Does trying to be Foreign Secretary and an MP demean both the job and William Hague? How about Chancellor of the Exchequer?

Boris in the past has compared the duties of Mayor as being comparable to a mid-level Cabinet post. I think he's spot on.

NickPalmer said:

FPT Flightpath:
"An MP gets paid, or should get paid, not for what he does 9 - 5 but for his judgement.
That judgement can come from different angles (which is where I use my judgemnt in voting), but leaving aside political differences , the point about government is that for the most part there are often no clear right or wrong choices, only choices."

Yes, I agree. The wording suggests that you're actually a current MP - is that right? I think it's fine if you choose not to identify yourself (enables you to write without constantly reviewing it for "MP commits gaffe" headlines), just interested that we have another professional on board.

Er... No. The political angle and my judgement voting refers to me as a voter voting for an MP. I take a broad judgement on the party I want to vote for. An MP ought really to be selected as a candidate based on his judgement. Probably never happens bit it should.
I do not think much about Labour in the broad political judgement category and there are a host of tory backbenchers who regularly display individual bad judgement when it comes to trying to achieve what they want. They have forgotten or do not understand what the problems of power are.

My main point is that being in power means having to make choices and avoiding them is worse than making a choice. I suppose Harold Wilson would call it pragmatism, but he gave that word a bad name. Events are difficult to control and a good politician a good leader with good judgement makes the best of them he can.

6/4 not big enough for you?

https://twitter.com/sharpeangle/status/569827416262217728

MaxPB said:

On the scandal itself, its not so much that Rifkind was selling information, given that it was just public info it's not such a big deal, it is the phrase "I'm self employed, no one pays me" that is going to do the damage. It just serves to reinforce general opinion that politicians are in it for themselves.

Especially out of touch rich Tory ones.

Indigo said:

antifrank said:

Charles said:

antifrank said:

Alanbrooke said:

Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.

Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.

Although it does give a veto to 4% of the voters (or arguably 2%+1). Hardly democratic.

We are living in a country that is slowly and asymmetrically federalising. We need to think through how we protect the interests of the smaller parts of that emerging federation if it is to survive. Perhaps the Australian system of needing a national majority and a majority in a majority of the component parts might work.

I cant see that working, its too asymmetrically to feel fair to England.

3.6m Scots + 1.2m Northern Irish + 1.4m Welsh = 6.2m voters agaist
39.4m England voters are in favor

and an idea is dropped ?

The English need to decide to what extent they are prepared to recognise the differences in the political cultures in each of northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales from England. The solution may lie in still further decentralisation, allowing some component parts to go in very different directions from others.

Mr. Antifrank, the English need some equality, instead of having powers continually thrown to everyone else while we get sod all.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Antifrank, the English need some equality, instead of having powers continually thrown to everyone else while we get sod all.

MD do not be silly the English parliament at Westminster has a veto, all power is with the de facto English parliament , that is the issue. Power devolved is power retained, they can overrule any non English decision any time they wish.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Antifrank, the English need some equality, instead of having powers continually thrown to everyone else while we get sod all.

If the English want independence from the rest of the UK, they should go for it. I doubt they do.

antifrank said:

Indigo said:

antifrank said:

Charles said:

antifrank said:

Alanbrooke said:

Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.

Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.

Although it does give a veto to 4% of the voters (or arguably 2%+1). Hardly democratic.

We are living in a country that is slowly and asymmetrically federalising. We need to think through how we protect the interests of the smaller parts of that emerging federation if it is to survive. Perhaps the Australian system of needing a national majority and a majority in a majority of the component parts might work.

I cant see that working, its too asymmetrically to feel fair to England.

3.6m Scots + 1.2m Northern Irish + 1.4m Welsh = 6.2m voters agaist
39.4m England voters are in favor

and an idea is dropped ?

The English need to decide to what extent they are prepared to recognise the differences in the political cultures in each of northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales from England. The solution may lie in still further decentralisation, allowing some component parts to go in very different directions from others.

Or the solution may lie in complete centralisation, ruling wisely from afar and saving the locals from themselves. Tends to increase support for independence, especially if they already have a flag.

Rifkind loses the Tory whip.

@jessicaelgot: He’s gone - Tories suspend Rifkind and will convene disciplinary committee

Does that mean he won't be standing as a Con candidate in that seat?

I wonder how long those 6/4 odds on Malcolm Rifkind not being the Conservative candidate in Kensington will last now? They still seem to be available.

antifrank said:

I wonder how long those 6/4 odds on Malcolm Rifkind not being the Conservative candidate in Kensington will last now? They still seem to be available.

They'll last longer with Hills offering 7/4

Morris_Dancer said:

Does that mean he won't be standing as a Con candidate in that seat?

You can't stand as a Tory candidate without the whip/approved by the party.