Maybe Rifkind will, in a fit of resentful anti CCHQ pique, defect to UKIP and run for them in K&C on his strong personal incumbency. But then again myabe Ed Miliband is not an idiot.
The bookies seem to have forgotten Howard Flight syndrome, where otherwise forgiveable* misdemeanours become capital offences in the run-up to the election.
That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.
Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.
Although it does give a veto to 4% of the voters (or arguably 2%+1). Hardly democratic.
We are living in a country that is slowly and asymmetrically federalising. We need to think through how we protect the interests of the smaller parts of that emerging federation if it is to survive. Perhaps the Australian system of needing a national majority and a majority in a majority of the component parts might work.
I cant see that working, its too asymmetrically to feel fair to England.
3.6m Scots + 1.2m Northern Irish + 1.4m Welsh = 6.2m voters agaist 39.4m England voters are in favor
and an idea is dropped ?
The English need to decide to what extent they are prepared to recognise the differences in the political cultures in each of northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales from England. The solution may lie in still further decentralisation, allowing some component parts to go in very different directions from others.
Is it really about different cultures though? It seems to me to be a game by which you work out how to maximise the advantage for your particular region of the UK. Ideally that involves greater devolution without losing powers at the national level. I'm sympathetic to the idea of Thomas Paine that England is still run as if it were a Norman colony. I don't know how they do these things in other countries but we seem to be in a mess.
Maybe Rifkind will, in fit of resentful anti CCHQ pique, defect to UKIP and run for them in K&C on his strong personal incumbency. But then again myabe Ed Miliband is not an idiot.
Maybe Rifkind will, in a fit of resentful anti CCHQ pique, defect to UKIP and run for them in K&C on his strong personal incumbency. But then again myabe Ed Miliband is not an idiot.
His 'personal incumbency' now lies in the gutter, like the victim of a Nicholas Scott car accident.
Maybe Rifkind will, in a fit of resentful anti CCHQ pique, defect to UKIP and run for them in K&C on his strong personal incumbency. But then again myabe Ed Miliband is not an idiot.
His 'personal incumbency' now lies in the gutter, like the victim of a Nicholas Scott car accident.
...unless it turns out he hasn't really been a naughty boy and this is a media stitch up. He was putting out a good case on telly earlier apparently. Who knows. Prescott survived punching a voter. Blair survived lying to take us to war. An ex-minister telling someone he can get them an invite to meet an ambassador isn't exactly Iran/Contra level skullduggery...
Maybe Rifkind will, in fit of resentful anti CCHQ pique, defect to UKIP and run for them in K&C on his strong personal incumbency. But then again myabe Ed Miliband is not an idiot.
He's very Pro-European isn't he?
I doubt K&C is very pro-Ukip is it? I'd have thought it's full of bankers who on the whole probably want to stay in the EU. Hedge fund managers may be a separate issue. Perhaps the closest Cameron has to a core vote.
Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE
@tnewtondunn: Reasonably clear now that Rifkind will not be a Tory MP by the end of today.
Free money?
Ideal for Boris ?
He's already got Uxbridge.
Which is to the Conservative Party's shame. Boris already has a job that is supposed to be meaningful: trying to be an MP as well demeans both the 'job' of Mayor of London and Boris himself.
If I was a Londoner, I would not vote for the Conservative candidate in the next mayoral election for exactly that reason. Thankfully, I'm not a Londoner...
Does trying to be Foreign Secretary and an MP demean both the job and William Hague? How about Chancellor of the Exchequer?
Boris in the past has compared the duties of Mayor as being comparable to a mid-level Cabinet post. I think he's spot on.
I'm sorry to say I have to disagree, Charles. When you vote for a candidate at a GE, it is clear that, if the party does well, the person you elect might get selected to do extra work *for the country*.
When the good people of London chose Boris for the second time, they'd have no idea he'd ponce off to do a more interesting job (or actually one that better fits his personal ambition), which has f-all to do with his real job.
I like Boris, but this decision dismayed me.
Either the MoL is a full-time job, or it should be abolished. And he earns £143,000 to do it - a little bit more than the PM gets for all his official work, I think.
If he thinks it's the same as a mid-level Cabinet post, he should get just the ministerial supplementary salary of 30,000 or so. ;-)
Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) 23/02/2015 12:25 Farage asked about Mitchell re Grimsby: "Lab seats now inhabited by Westminster bubble types. Grimsby is top target, Ukip has 50%+ chance".
Maybe Rifkind will, in a fit of resentful anti CCHQ pique, defect to UKIP and run for them in K&C on his strong personal incumbency. But then again myabe Ed Miliband is not an idiot.
His 'personal incumbency' now lies in the gutter, like the victim of a Nicholas Scott car accident.
...unless it turns out he hasn't really been a naughty boy and this is a media stitch up. He was putting out a good case on telly earlier apparently. Who knows. Prescott survived punching a voter. Blair survived lying to take us to war. An ex-minister telling someone he can get them an invite to meet an ambassador isn't exactly Iran/Contra level skullduggery...
I suspect neither have done anything that merits today's rabid response. They're victims of the age we live in, where you're accused, tried, convicted and condemned by the media. Whatever one's political views it's all pretty ridiculous.
Mr. G, soon Scots will be able to determine their own income tax rates and get a say over England's. It's indefensible.
Mr. Me, bugger that. England isn't the property of today's political pygmies to be carved up into shitty little fiefdoms. Not to mention that we can only have equality if we have a full English Parliament.
Or are you supposing such regions would get the power to vary income tax? Set independent health and education policies? Alter VAT or corporation tax?
With those powers you'd be institutionalising division and putting in a wedge that would break up England. Without them, we would not have equality with Scotland.
The only sustainable solution is an English Parliament.
MD , that is not true, they can tinker round the edges very poorly and changing tax alone would be suicide. Any change means a budget change overall so it means absolutely nothing and will never ever be possible that it could be used. It is a joke.
If you trawl Mr Hannan's old articles I think his argument has been:
1. Britain could get concessions. 2. Britain/Cameron is not seeking concessions. 3. Trivial points will be presented to the public as significant concessions.
Indeed, it's no certainty, but odds-against seemed generous. Even if Rifkind's cleared (as seems probable, based on the rules) any of MR/his local party/DC may have had enough.
Indeed, it's no certainty, but odds-against seemed generous. Even if Rifkind's cleared (as seems probable, based on the rules) any of MR/his local party/DC may have had enough.
In the world of politics, sometimes perceptions matter more than the facts, in this case, he's doomed.
I expect he'll be cleared, told to stand down and get a peerage in May
I guess Straw decided to fill hit boots in his last remaining months as an MP and before the Chilcott report comes out and makes in an unemployable, international pariah...
Maybe Rifkind will, in fit of resentful anti CCHQ pique, defect to UKIP and run for them in K&C on his strong personal incumbency. But then again myabe Ed Miliband is not an idiot.
He's very Pro-European isn't he?
I doubt K&C is very pro-Ukip is it? I'd have thought it's full of bankers who on the whole probably want to stay in the EU. Hedge fund managers may be a separate issue. Perhaps the closest Cameron has to a core vote.
It's empty. Turnout was something like 57% last time.
Indeed, it's no certainty, but odds-against seemed generous. Even if Rifkind's cleared (as seems probable, based on the rules) any of MR/his local party/DC may have had enough.
In the world of politics, sometimes perceptions matter more than the facts, in this case, he's doomed.
I expect he'll be cleared, told to stand down and get a peerage in May
Not so much a supermarket as a chain, but surely Clegg is Blockbuster, an idea overtaken by events....
Mr. G, if you're right, there'll probably be another referendum fairly soon and I suspect Yes would win.
MD, latest is that HMRC cannot work out how to tell what income tax can be counted as Scottish or how they will be able to work out days worked where etc count. All they will do is make up a number and then deduct that from Barnett and forever there will be fighting on the tax number and the impact it has on Scotland's budget. Will be another fudged mess that will cause problems. Westminster now also keeping veto on roadsign changes so the only real one has now gone as well.
Maybe Rifkind will, in fit of resentful anti CCHQ pique, defect to UKIP and run for them in K&C on his strong personal incumbency. But then again myabe Ed Miliband is not an idiot.
He's very Pro-European isn't he?
I doubt K&C is very pro-Ukip is it? I'd have thought it's full of bankers who on the whole probably want to stay in the EU. Hedge fund managers may be a separate issue. Perhaps the closest Cameron has to a core vote.
K & C is about as un-UKIP as a constituency could be.
Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE
@tnewtondunn: Reasonably clear now that Rifkind will not be a Tory MP by the end of today.
Free money?
Ideal for Boris ?
He's already got Uxbridge.
Which is to the Conservative Party's shame. Boris already has a job that is supposed to be meaningful: trying to be an MP as well demeans both the 'job' of Mayor of London and Boris himself.
If I was a Londoner, I would not vote for the Conservative candidate in the next mayoral election for exactly that reason. Thankfully, I'm not a Londoner...
Does trying to be Foreign Secretary and an MP demean both the job and William Hague? How about Chancellor of the Exchequer?
Boris in the past has compared the duties of Mayor as being comparable to a mid-level Cabinet post. I think he's spot on.
I'm sorry to say I have to disagree, Charles. When you vote for a candidate at a GE, it is clear that, if the party does well, the person you elect might get selected to do extra work *for the country*.
When the good people of London chose Boris for the second time, they'd have no idea he'd ponce off to do a more interesting job (or actually one that better fits his personal ambition), which has f-all to do with his real job.
I like Boris, but this decision dismayed me.
Either the MoL is a full-time job, or it should be abolished. And he earns £143,000 to do it - a little bit more than the PM gets for all his official work, I think.
If he thinks it's the same as a mid-level Cabinet post, he should get just the ministerial supplementary salary of 30,000 or so. ;-)
Feel free to disagree. I won't take it personally. Although I had thought you were a man of uncommonly good sense.
If we are going to stick to your position, though, you need to align the terms for the two jobs. Otherwise Boris won't be allowed to stand for an MP - hence we are effectively saying that Mayor of London is the end of someone political career. I'd rather have someone who is ambitious and on the up (ie with influence) than a timeserver
When the good people of London chose Boris for the second time, they'd have no idea he'd ponce off to do a more interesting job
Those that read the Telegraph would have been well aware of how he earns most of his money.
Indeed, and I'm all for MP's having second jobs as long as they fulfil their first job to their constituents and the public, and the other job(s) do not create conflicts of interest. But that's very different to the position that Boris will find himself in.
Unless you are saying Boris spends many hours a week tortuously fiddling with his column, as beads of perspiration drip off his brow onto his laptop?
@LordAshcroft: Interesting Ashcroft National Poll today at 4pm plus if our leaders were supermarkets which ones would they be
Rather hard to know what constitutes "interesting" in His Lordship's Bouncy Castle of Polling. Let's go with a Tory lead of 5, supporting MORI and showing last week was clearly an outlier from the inevitable Tory win in May.... UKIP 7, LibDems 4, Greens 16.
Feel free to disagree. I won't take it personally. Although I had thought you were a man of uncommonly good sense.
If we are going to stick to your position, though, you need to align the terms for the two jobs. Otherwise Boris won't be allowed to stand for an MP - hence we are effectively saying that Mayor of London is the end of someone political career. I'd rather have someone who is ambitious and on the up (ie with influence) than a timeserver
It wouldn't mean the end of his career: he'd just have to wait the (three?) years for the next GE or, more likely, for someone in a safe seat to shuffle off the mortal coil or retire mid-term. If he waits, he could do something worthwhile for the public.
As I say, I like Boris. But the MoL is meant to be an important job. If it isn't, abolish it or reduce its ludicrously high pay level to less than that of an MP.
In fact, I stand by a suggestion I made yonks ago: no public servant should earn more than the PM. It's be worth it just for the howls of anguish. ;-)
Iirc there's a record 7 seat lead from Sporting today for the Tories on a mid-spread of 283 compared with Labour's 276 ..... await the "that can't be right" yelps from the lefties.
Iceland are surprisingly successful, despite being hated and mocked in equal measure by the metro elite as the chavs supermarket. But growing across the country and are teflon like when it comes to bad PR....even the horse meat scandal, they ended up selling more burgers than they ever had and somehow came out of that with zero damage to their long term future.
That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.
Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.
Although it does give a veto to 4% of the voters (or arguably 2%+1). Hardly democratic.
We are living in a country that is slowly and asymmetrically federalising. We need to think through how we protect the interests of the smaller parts of that emerging federation if it is to survive. Perhaps the Australian system of needing a national majority and a majority in a majority of the component parts might work.
I cant see that working, its too asymmetrically to feel fair to England.
3.6m Scots + 1.2m Northern Irish + 1.4m Welsh = 6.2m voters agaist 39.4m England voters are in favor
and an idea is dropped ?
You could break England into constituent regions, say: Londonistan, Greater Sussex, Wessex, Cornwall, Mercia, East Anglia, Lancashire, Yorkshire and Northumbria.
Then England would have nine separate votes in the Federal UK.
The problem is that you only really have a viable Northumbria. The only other two subnationalities where that might have popular traction and definable - Cornwall and Cumbria are too small to be viable. The three which might be viable - York, Wessex and Mercia are not definable geographically and most of the rest of England was even more fluid before a concept of England existed.
Iirc there's a record 7 seat lead from Sporting today for the Tories on a mid-spread of 283 compared with Labour's 276 ..... await the "that can't be right" yelps from the lefties.
Spread lead vis-a-vis betfair is worth keeping an eye on for future reference.
Iirc there's a record 7 seat lead from Sporting today for the Tories on a mid-spread of 283 compared with Labour's 276 ..... await the "that can't be right" yelps from the lefties.
Surely all punters appreciate that it's not a matter of right / wrong but value / not value?
Iirc there's a record 7 seat lead from Sporting today for the Tories on a mid-spread of 283 compared with Labour's 276 ..... await the "that can't be right" yelps from the lefties.
Surely all punters appreciate that it's not a matter of right / wrong but value / not value?
If you want to keep the bet the whole way, yes. But we were being assured that 2.0 on Labour was good value only a few weeks ago, and those positions are substantially under water at present.
Looks like we are getting a scottish YouGov soon...
Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) 23/02/2015 13:13 @LordAshcroft phone poll due 4pm. Last week CON 31, LAB 32, LD 9, UKIP 16, GRN 8 Other polls +YouGoov expected in next day or so
Comments
Excellent spot by Mr. Smithson.
*By other politicians.
It was this bit that stood out
Indeed, EU leaders will now be more confident about being able to get away with the essentially optical concessions that David Cameron is asking for.
@AndrewSparrow: Cameron suggests Tories will decide Rifkind's fate quickly, in time for him to stand again at election if cleared -
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/feb/23/jack-straw-and-malcolm-rifkind-respond-to-cash-for-access-allegations-politics-live-blog#block-54eb18e7e4b0396c3e2b1dd1
Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
Malcolm Rifkind and Jack Straw have made a terrible mistake. If only they had advertised in the Telegraph, none of this would have happened.
When the good people of London chose Boris for the second time, they'd have no idea he'd ponce off to do a more interesting job (or actually one that better fits his personal ambition), which has f-all to do with his real job.
I like Boris, but this decision dismayed me.
Either the MoL is a full-time job, or it should be abolished. And he earns £143,000 to do it - a little bit more than the PM gets for all his official work, I think.
If he thinks it's the same as a mid-level Cabinet post, he should get just the ministerial supplementary salary of 30,000 or so. ;-)
Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ)
23/02/2015 12:25
Farage asked about Mitchell re Grimsby: "Lab seats now inhabited by Westminster bubble types. Grimsby is top target, Ukip has 50%+ chance".
Clegg as Tesco, once popular, now easily mocked.
Miliband = Co-op. Surely?
Tesco are still the market leaders, so not Clegg
Clegg = M&S (once much-loved, now struggling to retain customers)
Miliband = Co-op
Farage = Morrisons (straight-talking, very English)
Bennett = Holland and Barrett
@HuffPostUKPol: Tony Blair wades in to defend Jack Straw's integrity after cash for access sting http://t.co/FQmi2QLKcs http://t.co/zgl9y62imQ"
About as much as Ian Huntly speaking up for the Rotherham Councillors....
Apropos of nothing .....Where my Grandparents are buried in Edinburgh there are lines of Rifkinds. He has an enormous family apparently.
EDIT. I guess that should be HAD
1. Britain could get concessions.
2. Britain/Cameron is not seeking concessions.
3. Trivial points will be presented to the public as significant concessions.
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/9035/General-Election-Specials.html …
I expect he'll be cleared, told to stand down and get a peerage in May
Clegg as Poundland?
VERY surprised at Sir Malcolm though...
Frozen since the 1950s
I love Tesco, it keeps the riff raff out of my local Waitrose.
Tories won 55-0 with 2 abstentions
Westminster now also keeping veto on roadsign changes so the only real one has now gone as well.
If we are going to stick to your position, though, you need to align the terms for the two jobs. Otherwise Boris won't be allowed to stand for an MP - hence we are effectively saying that Mayor of London is the end of someone political career. I'd rather have someone who is ambitious and on the up (ie with influence) than a timeserver
(I hope)
A public institution, ubiquitous but never loved, not what it was and struggling to find its way in the modern world against more dynamic upstarts.
Labour is the BBC, another institution not without problems, but much more loved than BT.
The Lib Dems are HMV. And you're right UKIP is poundland (harking back to Woolworths).
Unless you are saying Boris spends many hours a week tortuously fiddling with his column, as beads of perspiration drip off his brow onto his laptop?
Just joking for any students out there. I do the same :-)
Let's go with a Tory lead of 5, supporting MORI and showing last week was clearly an outlier from the inevitable Tory win in May.... UKIP 7, LibDems 4, Greens 16.
Or something.
http://www.thepoke.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Waitrose.jpeg
As I say, I like Boris. But the MoL is meant to be an important job. If it isn't, abolish it or reduce its ludicrously high pay level to less than that of an MP.
In fact, I stand by a suggestion I made yonks ago: no public servant should earn more than the PM. It's be worth it just for the howls of anguish. ;-)
Used to be too snobby to go there but it is fantastic, and we have a Waitrose just down the road for the little luxuries like Lambrusco!
Iceland are surprisingly successful, despite being hated and mocked in equal measure by the metro elite as the chavs supermarket. But growing across the country and are teflon like when it comes to bad PR....even the horse meat scandal, they ended up selling more burgers than they ever had and somehow came out of that with zero damage to their long term future.
lead 0 = 2.0 v 2.0
lead of 7 = 1.62 v 2.64
Surely all punters appreciate that it's not a matter of right / wrong but value / not value?
7/4 again value? Edit - perhaps not, is anyone going to have the heart to knife him with the election intervening one way or the other?
"Conservatives suspend Sir Malcolm Rifkind after 'sting'"
I do think that the Telegraph in high moral tone mode is pushing credibility this week.
Aw don;t stop them. Its a really enjoyable read.
But given the importance and sensitivity of the role and terrorism being at the forefront....
Why can't we be told who that was? It would do him or her nothing but good.
The whole concept of 'value' in betting is sheer b8llocks. A bet is only value if it wins.
Can I interest you in some bets I'd like to offer...?
Or some other reason.
When did Malcolm get suspended? Jack removed himself last night i think?
Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)
23/02/2015 13:13
@LordAshcroft phone poll due 4pm. Last week CON 31, LAB 32, LD 9, UKIP 16, GRN 8
Other polls +YouGoov expected in next day or so