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SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited February 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling week opens with LAB and CON level-pegging with Populus

The movement in the latest Populus online poll is a 1% jump from 31% to 32% in the CON share with LAB staying the same So things remaining very stable.

Read the full story here


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  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2015
    "The last time that Populus had CON & LAB level-pegging was Dec 21st 2014. Then it was 35% each - today's poll 32% for both."

    That needs more discussion. 6% going somewhere. Kippers seem flat, LDs mired, Greens might get a bit I suppose. Where are the rest?

    And first.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    All to play for.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,089
    Re: the Straw and Rifkind variety and talent show:

    A few years ago I suggested that MPs should fill out timesheets: e.g. I was in the house on these mornings, afternoons and evenings, I held constituency surgeries at these hours, I was in select committees at these times.

    Many of us are expected to fill out timesheets in complex work situations (*); MPs should as well. Let the constituents know what they are doing with their time to earn their money.

    I'd say the same for top council bods as well, if they earn more than £70,000 off the state.

    (*) Including, in one job, predictive ones: they wanted the weekly timesheets (which were filled out on an hour-by-hour basis) on the Thursday for the next day.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    Anorak said:

    "The last time that Populus had CON & LAB level-pegging was Dec 21st 2014. Then it was 35% each - today's poll 32% for both."

    That needs more discussion. 6% going somewhere. Kippers seem flat, LDs mired, Greens might get a bit I suppose. Where are the rest?

    And first.

    Ukip were on 12% and the Greens were on 4% back in December.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Anorak said:

    "The last time that Populus had CON & LAB level-pegging was Dec 21st 2014. Then it was 35% each - today's poll 32% for both."

    That needs more discussion. 6% going somewhere. Kippers seem flat, LDs mired, Greens might get a bit I suppose. Where are the rest?

    And first.

    Populus a few weeks ago changed their methodology that was favourable to UKIP.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,066
    FPT. I wrote yesterday that an MP who I know said he was helping a constituent with a problem when this constituent said the trouble with MP's is you never get to see them to which he replied "I'm sitting here in your kitchen!"

    After I read this mornings expose it occurred to me....I wonder how many Tory MP's would visit a constituent living in a tenement block to help them with a problem? Being an MP seems to be whatever you want it to be
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Roger said:

    FPT. I wrote yesterday that an MP who I know said he was helping a constituent with a problem when this constituent said the trouble with MP's is you never get to see them to which he replied "I'm sitting here in your kitchen!"

    After I read this mornings expose it occurred to me....I wonder how many Tory MP's would visit a constituent living in a tenement block to help them with a problem? Being an MP seems to be whatever you want it to be

    How many Tory MPs have tenement blocks in their constituencies ?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Last week six out of the eleven polls had the party with the largest share of the vote on 33% or below.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2015
    tlg86 said:

    Anorak said:

    "The last time that Populus had CON & LAB level-pegging was Dec 21st 2014. Then it was 35% each - today's poll 32% for both."

    That needs more discussion. 6% going somewhere. Kippers seem flat, LDs mired, Greens might get a bit I suppose. Where are the rest?

    And first.

    Ukip were on 12% and the Greens were on 4% back in December.
    Fair enough, it was more a comment on the lack of a strong leader in the polling. When was the last time we had a General election when no party was above, say, 38%? IGNORE THIS

    If, in 2010, someone had told me that both main parties would be bumping along in the low 30s by the next election, I'd have assumed that person was an idiot. The outcome of this election is going to dissected 9 ways to Sunday in terms of how democratic it is (or isn't).

    And then nothing will change...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2015
    As it is, the Tories have a 32.2-32.0 lead in Populus. If we re-weight the Turnout Weighted figures to give a 50-50 male:female split (though it was 51-49 last time according to MORI), the lead disappears and we have a 32.1-32.1 tie.

    Whataboutery of the highest order.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2015
    Anorak said:

    tlg86 said:

    Anorak said:

    "The last time that Populus had CON & LAB level-pegging was Dec 21st 2014. Then it was 35% each - today's poll 32% for both."

    That needs more discussion. 6% going somewhere. Kippers seem flat, LDs mired, Greens might get a bit I suppose. Where are the rest?

    And first.

    Ukip were on 12% and the Greens were on 4% back in December.
    Fiar enough, it was more a comment on the lack of a strong leader in the polling. When was the last time we had a General election when no party was above, say, 38%?
    Apart from the last one, and the one before. Ok, that's a sign. I give up for the day.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Tissue_Price said:

    As it is, the Tories have a 32.2-32.0 lead in Populus. If we re-weight the Turnout Weighted figures to give a 50-50 male:female split (though it was 51-49 last time according to MORI), the lead disappears and we have a 32.1-32.1 tie.

    Whataboutery of the highest order.

    Cool - so that's the first of the 6 Tory leads I've called today.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Anorak said:

    tlg86 said:

    Anorak said:

    "The last time that Populus had CON & LAB level-pegging was Dec 21st 2014. Then it was 35% each - today's poll 32% for both."

    That needs more discussion. 6% going somewhere. Kippers seem flat, LDs mired, Greens might get a bit I suppose. Where are the rest?

    And first.

    Ukip were on 12% and the Greens were on 4% back in December.
    Fair enough, it was more a comment on the lack of a strong leader in the polling. When was the last time we had a General election when no party was above, say, 38%? IGNORE THIS

    If, in 2010, someone had told me that both main parties would be bumping along in the low 30s by the next election, I'd have assumed that person was an idiot. The outcome of this election is going to dissected 9 ways to Sunday in terms of how democratic it is (or isn't).

    And then nothing will change...
    In 2005 and 2010 no party polled 38%
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,521
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. I wrote yesterday that an MP who I know said he was helping a constituent with a problem when this constituent said the trouble with MP's is you never get to see them to which he replied "I'm sitting here in your kitchen!"

    After I read this mornings expose it occurred to me....I wonder how many Tory MP's would visit a constituent living in a tenement block to help them with a problem? Being an MP seems to be whatever you want it to be

    How many Tory MPs have tenement blocks in their constituencies ?
    Any in Scotland's cities ... well, Mr Mundell would perhaps qualify because of Dumfries.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Ashcroft: Lab lead 1
    ComRes Phone: Con lead 1
    Comres Web: Lab lead 2
    ICM: Con lead 4
    Ipsos: Lab lead 2
    Opinium: Con lead 2
    Populus: Tie
    Survation: Con lead 1
    TNS: Lab lead 7 (chuckle)
    Yougov: Lab lead 1
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Welcome back, Mr. Jessop.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    As it is, the Tories have a 32.2-32.0 lead in Populus. If we re-weight the Turnout Weighted figures to give a 50-50 male:female split (though it was 51-49 last time according to MORI), the lead disappears and we have a 32.1-32.1 tie.

    Whataboutery of the highest order.

    Cool - so that's the first of the 6 Tory leads I've called today.
    Thinking about it. We could have five polls today.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    Looks like Labour's opening salvoes - NHS, Swiss bank accounts - have changed nothing.

    Be interesting to see what changes when the Tories fire theirs on the economy.

    The Tories only need to capture one in two hundred voters each week between now and the election to be comfortably the largest party.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    Does a higher percentage of men than women vote? I genuinely don't know. I heard someone on the radio rabbiting on about how about 9m women had not voted at the last election but I did not get the impression that was worse than men.

    If the same proportions do vote at the end of the day to weight the vote in terms of men at this stage simply because they claim to be more certain seems a little odd.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Welcome back, Mr. Jessop.

    Seconded
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    DavidL said:

    Does a higher percentage of men than women vote? I genuinely don't know. I heard someone on the radio rabbiting on about how about 9m women had not voted at the last election but I did not get the impression that was worse than men.

    If the same proportions do vote at the end of the day to weight the vote in terms of men at this stage simply because they claim to be more certain seems a little odd.

    the short pink bus will change it all.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Labour caves to the ethnic vote ?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11427987/Labour-torpedoes-attempt-to-outlaw-same-sex-abortions.html
    Mrs Bruce has gained the support of more than 100 MPs from across the political spectrum for her amendment. There are concerns, however, Mrs Cooper's letter will torpedo the amendment.

    She is urging Labour MPs to vote in favour of a separate amendment calling for a "strategic plan to promote cultural change" and support vulnerable women.
    Let's not bother clarifying something that is already in law to stop certain doctors from weaselling and stop the GMC from weaselling, lets try and promote "culture change" instead.. good luck with that
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    Carnyx said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. I wrote yesterday that an MP who I know said he was helping a constituent with a problem when this constituent said the trouble with MP's is you never get to see them to which he replied "I'm sitting here in your kitchen!"

    After I read this mornings expose it occurred to me....I wonder how many Tory MP's would visit a constituent living in a tenement block to help them with a problem? Being an MP seems to be whatever you want it to be

    How many Tory MPs have tenement blocks in their constituencies ?
    Any in Scotland's cities ... well, Mr Mundell would perhaps qualify because of Dumfries.

    Dumfries is not in his constituency. Peebles is and does have some tenements.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,026
    DavidL said:

    Does a higher percentage of men than women vote? I genuinely don't know. I heard someone on the radio rabbiting on about how about 9m women had not voted at the last election but I did not get the impression that was worse than men.

    If the same proportions do vote at the end of the day to weight the vote in terms of men at this stage simply because they claim to be more certain seems a little odd.

    That is a very very interesting point. However are we talking about how certain someone is to vote, or how certain they are to vote for a particular party.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    https://twitter.com/elashton/status/569810749759090688
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    JosiasJessop said:

    Re: the Straw and Rifkind variety and talent show:

    A few years ago I suggested that MPs should fill out timesheets: e.g. I was in the house on these mornings, afternoons and evenings, I held constituency surgeries at these hours, I was in select committees at these times.

    Many of us are expected to fill out timesheets in complex work situations (*); MPs should as well. Let the constituents know what they are doing with their time to earn their money.

    I'd say the same for top council bods as well, if they earn more than £70,000 off the state.

    (*) Including, in one job, predictive ones: they wanted the weekly timesheets (which were filled out on an hour-by-hour basis) on the Thursday for the next day.

    God save us from the curse of the timesheet. They are for charging time to different clients.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/elashton/status/569810749759090688

    Good result for Cameron. Two messy bun fights, and a 1 on 1 with Ed.

    A four way with Farage would have been worst outcome.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twi759090688

    I thought the debates were off ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/elashton/status/569810749759090688

    Rather like reading the Breakfast Menu on the Titanic....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,089
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Welcome back, Mr. Jessop.

    Thanks to you and Mark, but I'm not sure how often I'll be posting.

    My free time has disappeared into a big (but extremely lovely) seven-month old baby. I used to work near full-time and be able to post on here whilst waiting for compilations or running test harnesses. I'm now not working but looking after the baby, and I find every minute seems filled up ...

    It's not a paid job, but it's brilliant. I could recommend it to any man: get your wives up the duff, then send them out to work so you can look after the baby. You can then say you're a modern man (tm). ;-)
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,894
    edited February 2015
    That last debate could be potentially massive. The whole Tory narrative of the election campaign that you don't want Miliband as PM will either be undermined or reinforced depending on how it goes. There'll be little chance for the party that comes off worst to rectify it in the last week as well.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,176
    'The movement in the latest Populus online poll is a 1% jump from 31% to 32% in the CON share with LAB staying the same So things remaining very stable.'

    Glad to hear a 1% change is a sign of stability.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    chestnut said:

    Ashcroft: Lab lead 1
    ComRes Phone: Con lead 1
    Comres Web: Lab lead 2
    ICM: Con lead 4
    Ipsos: Lab lead 2
    Opinium: Con lead 2
    Populus: Tie
    Survation: Con lead 1
    TNS: Lab lead 7 (chuckle)
    Yougov: Lab lead 1

    What strikes me as most interesting is not all of the polls, but the clear split between online and phone polls.

    Can we have a thread on their relative accuracy?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,521
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. I wrote yesterday that an MP who I know said he was helping a constituent with a problem when this constituent said the trouble with MP's is you never get to see them to which he replied "I'm sitting here in your kitchen!"

    After I read this mornings expose it occurred to me....I wonder how many Tory MP's would visit a constituent living in a tenement block to help them with a problem? Being an MP seems to be whatever you want it to be

    How many Tory MPs have tenement blocks in their constituencies ?
    Any in Scotland's cities ... well, Mr Mundell would perhaps qualify because of Dumfries.

    Dumfries is not in his constituency. Peebles is and does have some tenements.
    So they are - I stand corrected.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TGOHF said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twi759090688

    I thought the debates were off ?
    I think they probably are. This is presumably an attempt from the broadcasters to create a bit of momentum.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    You can again get 2.66 (13/8) on Betfair for Labour most seats. The punters seem to be getting well ahead of the polls.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,521
    JosiasJessop said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Welcome back, Mr. Jessop.

    Thanks to you and Mark, but I'm not sure how often I'll be posting.

    My free time has disappeared into a big (but extremely lovely) seven-month old baby. I used to work near full-time and be able to post on here whilst waiting for compilations or running test harnesses. I'm now not working but looking after the baby, and I find every minute seems filled up ...

    It's not a paid job, but it's brilliant. I could recommend it to any man: get your wives up the duff, then send them out to work so you can look after the baby. You can then say you're a modern man (tm). ;-)
    Nice to hear from you and to learn of your news. I was thinking of you and @Dr_Spyn the other day when reading a fascinating new book called 'The Railway: British track since 1804' by Andrew Dow from the library, and learning that the Victorians tried using glass for sleepers - admittedly annealed glass, but even so it's a nice comparison with our last chat, re concrete armour on tanks ...

    Search for 'glass' in

    https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=wG9tBQAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=the+railway+andrew+dow&hl=en&sa=X&ei=7gfrVO7BDcTR7Qbl0YHYBQ&ved=0CCAQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=glass&f=false

  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,066
    Jessops

    "A few years ago I suggested that MPs should fill out timesheets: e.g. I was in the house on these mornings, afternoons and evenings, I held constituency surgeries at these hours, I was in select committees at these times."

    First they came for the bankers.....then they came for the tax avoiders......then they came for the MP's....next they'll be coming for the luvvies.......the bastards!!
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Roger said:

    Jessops

    "A few years ago I suggested that MPs should fill out timesheets: e.g. I was in the house on these mornings, afternoons and evenings, I held constituency surgeries at these hours, I was in select committees at these times."

    First they came for the bankers.....then they came for the tax avoiders......then they came for the MP's....next they'll be coming for the luvvies.......the bastards!!

    Dave does this every Wednesday at the outset of PMQs doesn't he?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    I know we have a few Russell Brand fans here...

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDDzlgMrkGM
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    JosiasJessop said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Welcome back, Mr. Jessop.

    Thanks to you and Mark, but I'm not sure how often I'll be posting.

    My free time has disappeared into a big (but extremely lovely) seven-month old baby. I used to work near full-time and be able to post on here whilst waiting for compilations or running test harnesses. I'm now not working but looking after the baby, and I find every minute seems filled up ...

    It's not a paid job, but it's brilliant. I could recommend it to any man: get your wives up the duff, then send them out to work so you can look after the baby. You can then say you're a modern man (tm). ;-)
    Good luck and enjoy the time.

    A word of advice about the care of 7 month old babies. There is a thing called an electoral cycle. The run up to a general election sees a proliferation of a sub species of human, 'the evil baby eating tories' Please be wary and on your guard between now and 8th of May for sneaky attacks from these vermin who will be trying to gain your trust.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Tissue_Price said:

    TGOHF said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twi759090688

    I thought the debates were off ?
    I think they probably are. This is presumably an attempt from the broadcasters to create a bit of momentum.
    Someone at some time has to call them off... who is going to pull the trigger ?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,066
    Chestnut.

    chestnutchestnut Posts: 1,049
    10:29AM
    Ashcroft: Lab lead 1
    ComRes Phone: Con lead 1
    Comres Web: Lab lead 2
    ICM: Con lead 4
    Ipsos: Lab lead 2
    Opinium: Con lead 2
    Populus: Tie
    Survation: Con lead 1
    TNS: Lab lead 7 (chuckle)
    Yougov: Lab lead 1

    I remember writing once that you managed to give your statistics a Tory bias to which you replied 'not at all you were a humble seeker after truth and simply went where the figures took you.

    Chuckle!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    TGOHF said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    TGOHF said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twi759090688

    I thought the debates were off ?
    I think they probably are. This is presumably an attempt from the broadcasters to create a bit of momentum.
    Someone at some time has to call them off... who is going to pull the trigger ?
    I think we'll have a few more threats of empty chairing and a legal challenge or two which will throw a Spaniard into the works.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    TGOHF said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    TGOHF said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twi759090688

    I thought the debates were off ?
    I think they probably are. This is presumably an attempt from the broadcasters to create a bit of momentum.
    Someone at some time has to call them off... who is going to pull the trigger ?
    Margaret Beckett?

    Oh! Sorry, I thought you said who is going to pull Trigger
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052

    Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,789
    FPT Flightpath:
    "An MP gets paid, or should get paid, not for what he does 9 - 5 but for his judgement.
    That judgement can come from different angles (which is where I use my judgemnt in voting), but leaving aside political differences , the point about government is that for the most part there are often no clear right or wrong choices, only choices."

    Yes, I agree. The wording suggests that you're actually a current MP - is that right? I think it's fine if you choose not to identify yourself (enables you to write without constantly reviewing it for "MP commits gaffe" headlines), just interested that we have another professional on board.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Alanbrooke said:


    Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

    Are you surprised? This is the nation that contains people that think 45% represents a majority.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Today's Marf cartoon added to header
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Eagles, Alonso has enough problems to deal with, without determining how electoral debates will go.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Alanbrooke said:


    Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

    That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.

    Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,026
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

    Are you surprised? This is the nation that contains people that think 45% represents a majority.
    Scots stand up for Scottish influence surprise. And if Scots thought 45% was a majority surely it would be negotiating independence now?

    Scots want a veto - just like the Tories do inside the EU.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

    Are you surprised? This is the nation that contains people that think 45% represents a majority.
    Not really an issue is it - they can simply have another referendum then apply to join the EU again afterwards - clears up any currency issues as they will definitely have to join the Euro. Simples.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Well I'm not sure if this will be a help or hindrance


    @HuffPostUKPol: Tony Blair wades in to defend Jack Straw's integrity after cash for access sting http://t.co/FQmi2QLKcs http://t.co/zgl9y62imQ
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    antifrank said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

    That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.

    Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.
    Although it does give a veto to 4% of the voters (or arguably 2%+1). Hardly democratic.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well I'm not sure if this will be a help or hindrance


    @HuffPostUKPol: Tony Blair wades in to defend Jack Straw's integrity after cash for access sting http://t.co/FQmi2QLKcs http://t.co/zgl9y62imQ


    http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/10459/jack-straw-must-come-clean-about-his-role-in-the-jeremy-thorpe-scandal/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    antifrank said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

    That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.

    Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.
    Although it does give a veto to 4% of the voters (or arguably 2%+1). Hardly democratic.
    We are living in a country that is slowly and asymmetrically federalising. We need to think through how we protect the interests of the smaller parts of that emerging federation if it is to survive. Perhaps the Australian system of needing a national majority and a majority in a majority of the component parts might work.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well I'm not sure if this will be a help or hindrance


    @HuffPostUKPol: Tony Blair wades in to defend Jack Straw's integrity after cash for access sting http://t.co/FQmi2QLKcs http://t.co/zgl9y62imQ

    Methinks a hindrance.

    Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE


  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MikeSmithson said:

    Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE

    @tnewtondunn: Reasonably clear now that Rifkind will not be a Tory MP by the end of today.

    Free money?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE

    @tnewtondunn: Reasonably clear now that Rifkind will not be a Tory MP by the end of today.

    Free money?

    Ideal for Boris ?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Great 'toon Marf. I feel that it applies to some of the politicians all of the time, but not, hopefully, all the politicians all of the time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well I'm not sure if this will be a help or hindrance


    @HuffPostUKPol: Tony Blair wades in to defend Jack Straw's integrity after cash for access sting http://t.co/FQmi2QLKcs http://t.co/zgl9y62imQ

    Methinks a hindrance.

    Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE


    If I can find that bet I'm on.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE

    @tnewtondunn: Reasonably clear now that Rifkind will not be a Tory MP by the end of today.

    Free money?

    Ideal for Boris ?
    He's already got Uxbridge.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,619
    Earlier on someone suggested rifkind should be sacked...'from what?' Was the response
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well I'm not sure if this will be a help or hindrance


    @HuffPostUKPol: Tony Blair wades in to defend Jack Straw's integrity after cash for access sting http://t.co/FQmi2QLKcs http://t.co/zgl9y62imQ

    Methinks a hindrance.

    Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE


    If I can find that bet I'm on.
    http://t.co/3L09gd0U8I

    I was only allowed a small stake though.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,089
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE

    @tnewtondunn: Reasonably clear now that Rifkind will not be a Tory MP by the end of today.

    Free money?

    Ideal for Boris ?
    He's already got Uxbridge.
    Which is to the Conservative Party's shame. Boris already has a job that is supposed to be meaningful: trying to be an MP as well demeans both the 'job' of Mayor of London and Boris himself.

    If I was a Londoner, I would not vote for the Conservative candidate in the next mayoral election for exactly that reason. Thankfully, I'm not a Londoner...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    edited February 2015
    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well I'm not sure if this will be a help or hindrance


    @HuffPostUKPol: Tony Blair wades in to defend Jack Straw's integrity after cash for access sting http://t.co/FQmi2QLKcs http://t.co/zgl9y62imQ

    Methinks a hindrance.

    Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE


    If I can find that bet I'm on.
    http://t.co/3L09gd0U8I

    I was only allowed a small stake though.
    Cheers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well I'm not sure if this will be a help or hindrance


    @HuffPostUKPol: Tony Blair wades in to defend Jack Straw's integrity after cash for access sting http://t.co/FQmi2QLKcs http://t.co/zgl9y62imQ

    Methinks a hindrance.

    Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE


    Thanks Mike.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Meanwhile Ladbrokes now offering 6/4 that Rifkind won't be CON candidate in K&C at GE

    @tnewtondunn: Reasonably clear now that Rifkind will not be a Tory MP by the end of today.

    Free money?

    Ideal for Boris ?
    He's already got Uxbridge.
    Which is to the Conservative Party's shame. Boris already has a job that is supposed to be meaningful: trying to be an MP as well demeans both the 'job' of Mayor of London and Boris himself.

    If I was a Londoner, I would not vote for the Conservative candidate in the next mayoral election for exactly that reason. Thankfully, I'm not a Londoner...
    Does trying to be Foreign Secretary and an MP demean both the job and William Hague? How about Chancellor of the Exchequer?

    Boris in the past has compared the duties of Mayor as being comparable to a mid-level Cabinet post. I think he's spot on.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    On the scandal itself, its not so much that Rifkind was selling information, given that it was just public info it's not such a big deal, it is the phrase "I'm self employed, no one pays me" that is going to do the damage. It just serves to reinforce general opinion that politicians are in it for themselves.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    antifrank said:

    Charles said:

    antifrank said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

    That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.

    Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.
    Although it does give a veto to 4% of the voters (or arguably 2%+1). Hardly democratic.
    We are living in a country that is slowly and asymmetrically federalising. We need to think through how we protect the interests of the smaller parts of that emerging federation if it is to survive. Perhaps the Australian system of needing a national majority and a majority in a majority of the component parts might work.
    I cant see that working, its too asymmetrically to feel fair to England.

    3.6m Scots + 1.2m Northern Irish + 1.4m Welsh = 6.2m voters agaist
    39.4m England voters are in favor

    and an idea is dropped ?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Charles, quite. Miliband leaping on a bandwagon.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    NickPalmer said:

    FPT Flightpath:
    "An MP gets paid, or should get paid, not for what he does 9 - 5 but for his judgement.
    That judgement can come from different angles (which is where I use my judgemnt in voting), but leaving aside political differences , the point about government is that for the most part there are often no clear right or wrong choices, only choices."

    Yes, I agree. The wording suggests that you're actually a current MP - is that right? I think it's fine if you choose not to identify yourself (enables you to write without constantly reviewing it for "MP commits gaffe" headlines), just interested that we have another professional on board.

    Er... No. The political angle and my judgement voting refers to me as a voter voting for an MP. I take a broad judgement on the party I want to vote for. An MP ought really to be selected as a candidate based on his judgement. Probably never happens bit it should.
    I do not think much about Labour in the broad political judgement category and there are a host of tory backbenchers who regularly display individual bad judgement when it comes to trying to achieve what they want. They have forgotten or do not understand what the problems of power are.

    My main point is that being in power means having to make choices and avoiding them is worse than making a choice. I suppose Harold Wilson would call it pragmatism, but he gave that word a bad name. Events are difficult to control and a good politician a good leader with good judgement makes the best of them he can.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Rifkind appears to have become a barnacle - Lynton and his scraper will be coming along soon.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    6/4 not big enough for you?

    https://twitter.com/sharpeangle/status/569827416262217728
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,969
    Theuniondivvie said:

    'The movement in the latest Populus online poll is a 1% jump from 31% to 32% in the CON share with LAB staying the same So things remaining very stable.'

    Glad to hear a 1% change is a sign of stability.

    If it is the SNP in a subsample though it is a major drop
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,969
    MaxPB said:

    On the scandal itself, its not so much that Rifkind was selling information, given that it was just public info it's not such a big deal, it is the phrase "I'm self employed, no one pays me" that is going to do the damage. It just serves to reinforce general opinion that politicians are in it for themselves.

    Especially out of touch rich Tory ones.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    edited February 2015
    Indigo said:

    antifrank said:

    Charles said:

    antifrank said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

    That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.

    Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.
    Although it does give a veto to 4% of the voters (or arguably 2%+1). Hardly democratic.
    We are living in a country that is slowly and asymmetrically federalising. We need to think through how we protect the interests of the smaller parts of that emerging federation if it is to survive. Perhaps the Australian system of needing a national majority and a majority in a majority of the component parts might work.
    I cant see that working, its too asymmetrically to feel fair to England.

    3.6m Scots + 1.2m Northern Irish + 1.4m Welsh = 6.2m voters agaist
    39.4m England voters are in favor

    and an idea is dropped ?

    In America, the wishes of 255 million voters can be stopped by the wishes of 55 million voters.

    In fact, the exact opposite of the wishes of the 255 million can be forced on them by the wishes of 55 million voters
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Indigo said:

    antifrank said:

    Charles said:

    antifrank said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

    That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.

    Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.
    Although it does give a veto to 4% of the voters (or arguably 2%+1). Hardly democratic.
    We are living in a country that is slowly and asymmetrically federalising. We need to think through how we protect the interests of the smaller parts of that emerging federation if it is to survive. Perhaps the Australian system of needing a national majority and a majority in a majority of the component parts might work.
    I cant see that working, its too asymmetrically to feel fair to England.

    3.6m Scots + 1.2m Northern Irish + 1.4m Welsh = 6.2m voters agaist
    39.4m England voters are in favor

    and an idea is dropped ?

    The English need to decide to what extent they are prepared to recognise the differences in the political cultures in each of northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales from England. The solution may lie in still further decentralisation, allowing some component parts to go in very different directions from others.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Indigo said:

    antifrank said:

    Charles said:

    antifrank said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

    That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.

    Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.
    Although it does give a veto to 4% of the voters (or arguably 2%+1). Hardly democratic.
    We are living in a country that is slowly and asymmetrically federalising. We need to think through how we protect the interests of the smaller parts of that emerging federation if it is to survive. Perhaps the Australian system of needing a national majority and a majority in a majority of the component parts might work.
    I cant see that working, its too asymmetrically to feel fair to England.

    3.6m Scots + 1.2m Northern Irish + 1.4m Welsh = 6.2m voters agaist
    39.4m England voters are in favor

    and an idea is dropped ?
    You could break England into constituent regions, say: Londonistan, Greater Sussex, Wessex, Cornwall, Mercia, East Anglia, Lancashire, Yorkshire and Northumbria.

    Then England would have nine separate votes in the Federal UK.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Antifrank, the English need some equality, instead of having powers continually thrown to everyone else while we get sod all.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Indigo said:

    antifrank said:

    Charles said:

    antifrank said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

    That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.

    Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.
    Although it does give a veto to 4% of the voters (or arguably 2%+1). Hardly democratic.
    We are living in a country that is slowly and asymmetrically federalising. We need to think through how we protect the interests of the smaller parts of that emerging federation if it is to survive. Perhaps the Australian system of needing a national majority and a majority in a majority of the component parts might work.
    I cant see that working, its too asymmetrically to feel fair to England.

    3.6m Scots + 1.2m Northern Irish + 1.4m Welsh = 6.2m voters agaist
    39.4m England voters are in favor

    and an idea is dropped ?
    You could break England into constituent regions, say: Londonistan, Greater Sussex, Wessex, Cornwall, Mercia, East Anglia, Lancashire, Yorkshire and Northumbria.

    Then England would have nine separate votes in the Federal UK.
    As a Cumbrian, you can f*ck right off with that list :)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,969
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Antifrank, the English need some equality, instead of having powers continually thrown to everyone else while we get sod all.

    MD do not be silly the English parliament at Westminster has a veto, all power is with the de facto English parliament , that is the issue. Power devolved is power retained, they can overrule any non English decision any time they wish.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    On the scandal itself, its not so much that Rifkind was selling information, given that it was just public info it's not such a big deal, it is the phrase "I'm self employed, no one pays me" that is going to do the damage. It just serves to reinforce general opinion that politicians are in it for themselves.

    Especially out of touch rich Tory ones.
    Eck must miss those golfing jollies.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Antifrank, the English need some equality, instead of having powers continually thrown to everyone else while we get sod all.

    If the English want independence from the rest of the UK, they should go for it. I doubt they do.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    It's surprising that by backing LibDem 36-40 seats at 16 and LibDem 41+ seats at 18, in combination both with Betfair, it's possible thereby to obtain net odds of 8.10 on the yellows losing fewer than 20 seats at the GE. An excellent form of insurance for people like me who have bet on them achieving fewer than this number and an out and out value bet for the likes of OGH who accuses me of being a "denier" should I so much as dare to suggest that the LibDems will score fewer than 30 seats.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2015
    antifrank said:

    Indigo said:

    antifrank said:

    Charles said:

    antifrank said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    Scots struggle with the concept of majority voting.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/60-of-scots-say-all-uk-nations-must-back-eu-exit-1-3698167

    That's not such a stupid position. Constitutional change in many countries, including Australia and the USA, requires more than just a simple majority. By any measure, leaving the EU would be a constitutional change.

    Or if we were more imaginative, perhaps we could have a hokey-cokey settlement with the EU, with Scotland in and other parts of the UK out.
    Although it does give a veto to 4% of the voters (or arguably 2%+1). Hardly democratic.
    We are living in a country that is slowly and asymmetrically federalising. We need to think through how we protect the interests of the smaller parts of that emerging federation if it is to survive. Perhaps the Australian system of needing a national majority and a majority in a majority of the component parts might work.
    I cant see that working, its too asymmetrically to feel fair to England.

    3.6m Scots + 1.2m Northern Irish + 1.4m Welsh = 6.2m voters agaist
    39.4m England voters are in favor

    and an idea is dropped ?

    The English need to decide to what extent they are prepared to recognise the differences in the political cultures in each of northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales from England. The solution may lie in still further decentralisation, allowing some component parts to go in very different directions from others.
    Or the solution may lie in complete centralisation, ruling wisely from afar and saving the locals from themselves. Tends to increase support for independence, especially if they already have a flag.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. G, soon Scots will be able to determine their own income tax rates and get a say over England's. It's indefensible.

    Mr. Me, bugger that. England isn't the property of today's political pygmies to be carved up into shitty little fiefdoms. Not to mention that we can only have equality if we have a full English Parliament.

    Or are you supposing such regions would get the power to vary income tax? Set independent health and education policies? Alter VAT or corporation tax?

    With those powers you'd be institutionalising division and putting in a wedge that would break up England. Without them, we would not have equality with Scotland.

    The only sustainable solution is an English Parliament.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Rifkind loses the Tory whip.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jessicaelgot: He’s gone - Tories suspend Rifkind and will convene disciplinary committee
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jessicaelgot: He’s gone - Tories suspend Rifkind and will convene disciplinary committee
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    As predicted last night, one lucky SPAD is about to get the very safe Tory seat of Kensington.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Does that mean he won't be standing as a Con candidate in that seat?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Rifkind loses the Tory whip.

    Should he ask David Mellor for it?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I wonder how long those 6/4 odds on Malcolm Rifkind not being the Conservative candidate in Kensington will last now? They still seem to be available.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Reading this, am I the only one wondering if Dan Hannan is about to defect?

    http://www.capx.co/defeat-of-varoufakis-will-embolden-the-eurocrats-to-con-cameron/
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    antifrank said:

    I wonder how long those 6/4 odds on Malcolm Rifkind not being the Conservative candidate in Kensington will last now? They still seem to be available.

    They'll last longer with Hills offering 7/4
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    antifrank said:

    I wonder how long those 6/4 odds on Malcolm Rifkind not being the Conservative candidate in Kensington will last now? They still seem to be available.

    Morning all from North East Derbyshire. Shadsy has allowed me £16.67 on this - I assume 6-4 isn't the correct odds and it's some sort of "promotion" :) ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Does that mean he won't be standing as a Con candidate in that seat?

    You can't stand as a Tory candidate without the whip/approved by the party.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Tissue_Price said:

    antifrank said:

    I wonder how long those 6/4 odds on Malcolm Rifkind not being the Conservative candidate in Kensington will last now? They still seem to be available.

    They'll last longer with Hills offering 7/4
    Grrr I can't get on Hills at work. Life is full of unfairnesses.
This discussion has been closed.

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