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Mayday! A grim night for Labour and the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,763
    carnforth said:

    A decent rant:

    https://rmoff.net/2026/05/06/ai-slop-is-killing-online-communities/

    "AI Slop is Killing Online Communities"

    Yup, it's why Vanilla blocks people who post AI slop here.
  • Selebian said:

    Off on a tangent, but is that helmet on the front guy serving any purpose at all, other than decoration. I guess if something fell directly from above it might help, but it's not going to do anything useful in a crash.

    It's bizarre that cyclists are not required to wear effective head protection, but moped riders legally must have an approved safety helmet.

    If you come off, that chunky curb stone your head hits doesn't care what you were riding...
  • PhilPhil Posts: 3,333
    edited May 8

    Phil said:

    Cookie said:

    Phil said:

    isam said:

    Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt.
    But they shouldn't rush it.

    IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him

    Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer.
    Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.

    Why is it, I wonder.
    I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.

    Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.

    Thoughts?
    The left blame him because he was in the room when Corbyn shot himself in the foot.

    The right blame him because he was in the room when Boris shot himself in the groin.

    Everyone hates him because, like the rest of them, he doesn't have a working solution to our problems. And he's crap at politics, and has an annoying voice.

    Worst of all, he's the least bad option right now.
    The Centrists hate him because they thought all was needed was that a sensible Labour person took over as PM, and it turned out that wasn't the case.
    My perception is that the hate is mostly coming from the left / right - current Green & Reform voters? Centrists just find him uninspiring.
    The focus groups and polling consistently report he really does have a unique positiion that he is disliked through to hated across the board not just far left or right. Unlike even Boris post partygate, he has no fan club. He appears to have magic ability to make people really hate him other things most other politicians would be fine. The polling companies have reported even when they have asked what about.decision on Iran, the public at best react with yeap he got that right before then ranting about his other things.
    The reverse Midas touch! Just shows what a mistake it was by the Labour right to appoint him their anointed successor when he’d never really been tested as a politician. Now he’s been tested & found wanting it’s too late - they’re stuck with him.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623
    (Sorry for all the double posts)
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623

    I think Reform will be relieved more than anything. The campaign saw the reveal that Farage really took a massive bung. I don't rubbish him entirely for that - I am sure he had longstanding views about the freedom of bitcoin that aligned with the bung, but that is still what it is and it could have been disastrous.

    They got past it partly due to a clever shitpost (migrant detention centres for Green areas), and because people wanted to kick Labour. They are lucky lucky lucky.

    Didn’t you attack Starmer for getting free glasses
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,533

    I'm at the Camden count. We've just had the turnout announced at 48%, which is high. Hard to know results yet, but I think Greens doing well. Lots of split voting. Saw someone vote for 2 Greens and me as their only LibDem vote. Good to have a personal vote!

    I hope that's not because you've been projecting as a quirky populist charlatan.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,797
    edited May 8

    I just do not understand what Starmer is still doing standing there.

    I guess I’ll have to dump my source, I sincerely thought he’d quit.

    I didn't think he would quit, and still don't - but be fair to yourself and your source, Horse, we've only had about a third of the results through yet. If he's going to quit qif the results are bad he will at least wait until most of the results are in. He'll be clinging on to the hope that once the big cities are in things won't look so bleak.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    https://x.com/lukeakehurst/status/2052699108121456958

    The message from Northern council results swinging sharply to Reform echoes that from County Durham last year. To win these communities back Labour needs to:
    - focus on tackling the cost of living crisis
    - not backslide on tackling illegal immigration
    - reindustrialise - invest in high quality jobs and transport infrastructure in left behind communities - including ensuring the long-awaited Defence Investment Plan has a regional jobs impact
    - deepen initiatives like Pride in Place to regenerate high streets and town centres
    - tackle ASB, drug crime, shoplifting and offroad bikes
    - be pragmatic about net zero policies so that they don't cause jobs to be lost, whether that's allowing the 2 new oil and gas fields to proceed, or ensuring the ZEV mandate works for the car industry

    Luke makes some good points but it’s all pointless with Starmer still there
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,136

    I just do not understand what Starmer is still doing standing there.

    I guess I’ll have to dump my source, I sincerely thought he’d quit.

    The allure of power vary rarely allows people the luxury of walking away willingly.

    Starmer has shown no indication he was likely to ever go unless forced.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    Cookie said:

    Phil said:

    isam said:

    Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt.
    But they shouldn't rush it.

    IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him

    Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer.
    Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.

    Why is it, I wonder.
    I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.

    Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.

    Thoughts?
    The left blame him because he was in the room when Corbyn shot himself in the foot.

    The right blame him because he was in the room when Boris shot himself in the groin.

    Everyone hates him because, like the rest of them, he doesn't have a working solution to our problems. And he's crap at politics, and has an annoying voice.

    Worst of all, he's the least bad option right now.
    The Centrists hate him because they thought all was needed was that a sensible Labour person took over as PM, and it turned out that wasn't the case.
    My perception is that the hate is mostly coming from the left / right - current Green & Reform voters? Centrists just find him uninspiring.
    The focus groups and polling consistently report he really does have a unique positiion that he is disliked through to hated across the board not just far left or right. Unlike even Boris post partygate, he has no fan club. He appears to have magic ability to make people really hate him other things most other politicians would be fine. The polling companies have reported even when they have asked what about.decision on Iran, the public at best react with yeap he got that right before then ranting about his other things.
    I detect an 'unpopular boy at school' thing in the mix. There's a bandwagon. Throwing around insults about him, repeating what they've heard, competing to do better ones, has become a kind of national hobby. They think it's grounded in reality but it largely isn't. A lot of it is herd behaviour.
    That would be true if I didn’t keep getting personal accounts from people THAT ACTUALLY KNOW HIM that he’s exactly as dislikeable in private. It sounds mean to keep repeating it, it does feel like school bullying, but it is also true

    Note how he seems to have no friends in Labour. Not one. He has no loyal cadres. No network of allies. He has favoured aides that he throws under buses
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,272
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    Cookie said:

    Phil said:

    isam said:

    Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt.
    But they shouldn't rush it.

    IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him

    Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer.
    Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.

    Why is it, I wonder.
    I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.

    Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.

    Thoughts?
    The left blame him because he was in the room when Corbyn shot himself in the foot.

    The right blame him because he was in the room when Boris shot himself in the groin.

    Everyone hates him because, like the rest of them, he doesn't have a working solution to our problems. And he's crap at politics, and has an annoying voice.

    Worst of all, he's the least bad option right now.
    The Centrists hate him because they thought all was needed was that a sensible Labour person took over as PM, and it turned out that wasn't the case.
    My perception is that the hate is mostly coming from the left / right - current Green & Reform voters? Centrists just find him uninspiring.
    The focus groups and polling consistently report he really does have a unique positiion that he is disliked through to hated across the board not just far left or right. Unlike even Boris post partygate, he has no fan club. He appears to have magic ability to make people really hate him other things most other politicians would be fine. The polling companies have reported even when they have asked what about.decision on Iran, the public at best react with yeap he got that right before then ranting about his other things.
    I detect an 'unpopular boy at school' thing in the mix. There's a bandwagon. Throwing around insults about him, repeating what they've heard, competing to do better ones, has become a kind of national hobby. They think it's grounded in reality but it largely isn't. A lot of it is herd behaviour.
    That would be true if I didn’t keep getting personal accounts from people THAT ACTUALLY KNOW HIM that he’s exactly as dislikeable in private. It sounds mean to keep repeating it, it does feel like school bullying, but it is also true

    Note how he seems to have no friends in Labour. Not one. He has no loyal cadres. No network of allies. He has favoured aides that he throws under buses
    And civil servants.
  • Scott_xP said:

    @paulbrand.bsky.social‬

    Politically awkward moment of the day on the BBC as Victoria Atkins says she hasn't spoken to Robert Jenrick since she supported his failed bid to lead the Conservative Party.

    https://bsky.app/profile/paulbrand.bsky.social/post/3mldhvmeaec2h

    Very telling and she handled it well. Jenrick came over very badly and rather contemptible. Like Victoria I backed Jenrick for the leadership of the Conservative Party, and like her, as this moment showed so well, I was wrong. I know Kemi was glad to see the back of him with hindsight as suddenly the private Shadow Cabinet discussions stopped being leaked to Reform. He really is an arsehole.

    It is a fact the Conservative structure for selecting Parliamentary Candidates could be gamed, particularly by minor public school alumni. If there is to be an end of this trauma then at least the Jenricks will have gone. That must be good.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,272
    Brum rumours:


    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    ·
    1m
    Talk Reform could even win a maj on council, which would be huge. By far their biggest council win in history
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,870
    Leon said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt.
    But they shouldn't rush it.

    IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him

    Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer.
    Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.

    Why is it, I wonder.
    I think it’s because he is two faced, economical with the truth, and never takes responsibility. That is true of a lot of politicians, but Sir Keir is also pious, boring to listen to, and free of charisma, which makes him intensely dislikeable.
    Also, people sense a wrong ‘un. It’s instinctive
    Have to say my wrong 'un detector is flashing red when Farage is on screen.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,432
    Pro_Rata said:

    Chameleon said:

    From Twitter:

    "So far 189 of Labour's holds, out of 253 overall, were in London. That's actually 75%"

    I may have a slightly differently timed snapshot, but

    For London that 189 comes from approx 543 declared
    For rest of England those 64 come from approx 716 declared

    (we should also note the London declarations so far lean quite a bit towards inner London)
    Greater Manchester in line with that rest of England result:

    Labour on 11 seats of the 126 declared, a net loss of 69 seats.

    90 seats yet to declare.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 34,039
    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    Cookie said:

    Phil said:

    isam said:

    Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt.
    But they shouldn't rush it.

    IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him

    Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer.
    Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.

    Why is it, I wonder.
    I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.

    Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.

    Thoughts?
    The left blame him because he was in the room when Corbyn shot himself in the foot.

    The right blame him because he was in the room when Boris shot himself in the groin.

    Everyone hates him because, like the rest of them, he doesn't have a working solution to our problems. And he's crap at politics, and has an annoying voice.

    Worst of all, he's the least bad option right now.
    The Centrists hate him because they thought all was needed was that a sensible Labour person took over as PM, and it turned out that wasn't the case.
    My perception is that the hate is mostly coming from the left / right - current Green & Reform voters? Centrists just find him uninspiring.
    The focus groups and polling consistently report he really does have a unique positiion that he is disliked through to hated across the board not just far left or right. Unlike even Boris post partygate, he has no fan club. He appears to have magic ability to make people really hate him other things most other politicians would be fine. The polling companies have reported even when they have asked what about.decision on Iran, the public at best react with yeap he got that right before then ranting about his other things.
    I detect an 'unpopular boy at school' thing in the mix. There's a bandwagon. Throwing around insults about him, repeating what they've heard, competing to do better ones, has become a kind of national hobby. They think it's grounded in reality but it largely isn't. A lot of it is herd behaviour.
    I think the "present but absent" Starmer image of being a bit "wallpaper" comes from wanting to be a functionary in a position which is too prominent to be a functionary.

    I think the obsessive hate/abuse is more normal politics - the partisan media sources are treating him as they did Kinnock, with the primary objective being to go for Starmer rather than report the news, and any suitable incident or story becomes such a vehicle.

    For the Conservatives I think it is exacerbated because they have almost nothing to say on their own account, and still have not looked into / taken responsibility for what they did to wreck the country, so attacking Starmer is all they have left other than a Giant Sucking Sound.

    For Reform, they have always been a marketing organisation which embraces both sides of most poicies at different times, so that comes with the territory.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,427
    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    Cookie said:

    Phil said:

    isam said:

    Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt.
    But they shouldn't rush it.

    IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him

    Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer.
    Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.

    Why is it, I wonder.
    I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.

    Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.

    Thoughts?
    The left blame him because he was in the room when Corbyn shot himself in the foot.

    The right blame him because he was in the room when Boris shot himself in the groin.

    Everyone hates him because, like the rest of them, he doesn't have a working solution to our problems. And he's crap at politics, and has an annoying voice.

    Worst of all, he's the least bad option right now.
    The Centrists hate him because they thought all was needed was that a sensible Labour person took over as PM, and it turned out that wasn't the case.
    My perception is that the hate is mostly coming from the left / right - current Green & Reform voters? Centrists just find him uninspiring.
    The focus groups and polling consistently report he really does have a unique positiion that he is disliked through to hated across the board not just far left or right. Unlike even Boris post partygate, he has no fan club. He appears to have magic ability to make people really hate him other things most other politicians would be fine. The polling companies have reported even when they have asked what about.decision on Iran, the public at best react with yeap he got that right before then ranting about his other things.
    I detect an 'unpopular boy at school' thing in the mix. There's a bandwagon. Throwing around insults about him, repeating what they've heard, competing to do better ones, has become a kind of national hobby. They think it's grounded in reality but it largely isn't. A lot of it is herd behaviour.
    Err....

    He has pissed off the Left, by not doing lefty things. They have left en-masse for the Greens.
    A chunk of the old style Labour voters think Labour no longer represents them. So has gone Reform.
    He hasn't got much done that the Centrists like.

    The problem is "Where is the upside of Starmer?" - as @NickPalmer said (above) the Left stuck with Blair because he delivered on things like more money for schools & hospitals, despite hammering the ultra-left (Militant etc).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579

    Brum rumours:


    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    ·
    1m
    Talk Reform could even win a maj on council, which would be huge. By far their biggest council win in history

    This is clearly Labour ramping so their results don't look so awful.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,422
    Hello from P&J live. Validation phase complete. Counting starts shortly.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,417

    I think Reform will be relieved more than anything. The campaign saw the reveal that Farage really took a massive bung. I don't rubbish him entirely for that - I am sure he had longstanding views about the freedom of bitcoin that aligned with the bung, but that is still what it is and it could have been disastrous.

    They got past it partly due to a clever shitpost (migrant detention centres for Green areas), and because people wanted to kick Labour. They are lucky lucky lucky.

    I expect Farage has long standing views about the freedom of bitcoin to be swiftly converted into cold hard bank deposits in currency underwritten by the central bank of a stable country.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,272
    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Brum rumours:


    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    ·
    1m
    Talk Reform could even win a maj on council, which would be huge. By far their biggest council win in history

    This is clearly Labour ramping so their results don't look so awful.
    Not a cat in hells Brum will deliver majority Reform council.
    Does seem odd given the number of Gaza "independent" candidates.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    Of course we forget that Farage and now Polanski’s approval ratings are also rather poor. Starmer’s are horrific.

    Badenoch’s are quite good.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,533

    Reform are apparently not a national party because they're only doing well in areas that voted Leave (which was 401 of 632 constituencies).

    https://x.com/GavinBarwell/status/2052610092931916065

    You're going to hear a lot about how Reform is now a national party.

    It's not true, as John Curtice sets out here. They're doing very well in areas that voted strongly for Brexit and not very well at all in areas that voted strongly Remain

    Their base is ageing Leavers. It's a good base because there are lots of them in enough seats to win a GE. Not a majority (no chance) but largest party. The Brexit divide is still key in our politics.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 34,039

    Brum rumours:


    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    ·
    1m
    Talk Reform could even win a maj on council, which would be huge. By far their biggest council win in history

    I'm not up to date on the status of Birmingham City Council - what powers do they have compared to the West Midlands Region, and the Mayor?

    Where does the Local Highways Authority sit, for example?
  • PJHPJH Posts: 1,170

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    I note the Conservatives have taken Westminster much as expected and have held Bexley perhaps with more ease than some imagined.

    What we are seeing (from a Conservative and LD perspective) is both parties retreating to areas of strength and fortifying those in terms of local council seats. I suspect that will mean it will be as hard for the Conservatives to make gains from the Lib Dems at the next GE as it will for the LDs to make gains from the Conservatives.

    There are, however, growing areas where neither party is relevant.

    With almost all results in, the Tory vote in Bexley is now 37% - down from 51% last time. Reform is at 32%, from nowhere, and Labour on 19% down from 44%, with the Greens picking up 7%.

    That the Tories have 29 seats (for 37%) to Reform's 7 (for 32%) is down to the voting system.
    Arguably it's also down to Reform being politically naive and over confident and thinking they can win everywhere rather than targetting specific Wards.
    My impression is that the Reform campaign relied heavily upon national mailshots from Farage, presumably funded by some of the big donations Reform is getting nationally, and the beyond that it was entirely up to individual candidates whether they made any effort in their own ward. I don't sense there's an effective campaiging organisation in between Reform HQ and individual wards - at constituency or council level - of the sort that the established parties will have.

    It will be interesting to see whether Reform manages to build effective local organisations, and whether enough of their members are up for all the grunt admin and committee work on wet winter evenings that it will take to build and maintain this?
    Pretty much the case in this bit of Romford. National mailshots from Nigel, and ANDREW ROSINDELL endorses these candidates, who said very little.

    Anyway, they have a mandate, but for what? Hexit ain't gonna happen, so they now have another council that is both frugal and bust.

    Good luck, chaps.
    Same for me, two directly addressed letters, one from Big Nige and one from Rozzer pushing Hexit, one generic leaflet on national issues and nothing about the candidates except their names and a photo. They did canvas once early on but I had nothing from them in the last 3 weeks of the campaign. Contrast with the RAs who did a leaflet a week throughout, and narrowly lost by roughly 2200-1800. The Tories lost 75% of their vote compared to last time, Labour half.

    Good news - turnout was up from 38% to over 50%.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    I don’t hate Sir Keir.

    But I am massively disappointed in him. I think his judgment is terrible and he’s got nobody with any ideas around him.

    On that basis I’m on Team Burnham.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 6,090
    Green win Hackney Mayor
  • MundoMundo Posts: 38
    On the dislike of Starmer front, surprised no one has yet mentioned the pursuit of elderly servicemen through the courts whilst rubbing shoulders with (former) terrorists if various stripes. Not gone down too well in my native Plymouth.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    edited May 8
    Dupe, delete
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    Oh great we get to see Sean’s posts twice now
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534

    Green win Hackney Mayor

    Shouldn’t they also win the council if that’s the case ?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,870
    Made me laugh (a bit) and, then, wince (a lot).

    "Scotland swapped a Secretary of State and six ministers for a billion-pound parliament, a six-billion-pound quango state and 25 years of constitutional psychodrama. Hard to call that progress."
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,295
    What's the fewest seats Labour can hold in Wales+Scotland and Starmer still stay?

    70 is the par mark from last election (accounting for welsh assembly upsizing).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,931
    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Brum rumours:


    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    ·
    1m
    Talk Reform could even win a maj on council, which would be huge. By far their biggest council win in history

    This is clearly Labour ramping so their results don't look so awful.
    Not a cat in hells Brum will deliver majority Reform council.
    It would test the notion: how much rubbish can Brum take?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    Chameleon said:

    What's the fewest seats Labour can hold in Wales+Scotland and Starmer still stay?

    70 is the par mark from last election (accounting for welsh assembly upsizing).

    There’s no number that means he should stay.

    When will Labour get real. Honestly this is why people hate this party. We apparently love to lose.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 6,090
    Steve Reed is floundering in BBC right now.

    He has no answers
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000

    Oh great we get to see Sean’s posts twice now

    lol. I apologise but I think we all know this is a vanilla glitch, not me demanding to be heard twice

    It is weird. The glitching
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    Of course it is HILARIOUS to see the Corbyn faction call for Sir Keir to go and for them to suddenly understand polling when they did nothing but ignore it whilst he was there (me included).
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,499
    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Brum rumours:


    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    ·
    1m
    Talk Reform could even win a maj on council, which would be huge. By far their biggest council win in history

    This is clearly Labour ramping so their results don't look so awful.
    Not a cat in hells Brum will deliver majority Reform council.
    The only Reform friendly areas of Brum would be in the SW bit of the city (i.e. Longbridge, Northfield, Weoley Castle). The rest of the city is just too diverse.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    Leon said:

    Oh great we get to see Sean’s posts twice now

    lol. I apologise but I think we all know this is a vanilla glitch, not me demanding to be heard twice

    It is weird. The glitching
    It’s not a glitch Sean. The server just keeps going down.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,551
    MattW said:

    Brum rumours:


    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    ·
    1m
    Talk Reform could even win a maj on council, which would be huge. By far their biggest council win in history

    I'm not up to date on the status of Birmingham City Council - what powers do they have compared to the West Midlands Region, and the Mayor?

    Where does the Local Highways Authority sit, for example?
    That would be astonishing if you consider they won't win any seats in the Muslim majority wards. That would mean having to win current Tory seats in Egbaston and Sutton Coldfield
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    https://x.com/jasongroves1/status/2052703798150214101

    Hackney's new Green mayor Zoe Garbett suggests Labour lost because it was 'putting profit before the planet and supporting genocide'

    Great the loons are in power
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    If Sir Keir is still there this time next week I’m going to vote Tory in the next mayoral election.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,829
    Tories getting a kicking from Reform in Essex.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,541
    edited May 8

    https://x.com/jasongroves1/status/2052703798150214101

    Hackney's new Green mayor Zoe Garbett suggests Labour lost because it was 'putting profit before the planet and supporting genocide'

    Great the loons are in power

    Absurd, since when did anyone in the Labour party ever give a damn about profits other than a basis for a windfall tax, natch?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,418
    edited May 8

    isam said:

    Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt.
    But they shouldn't rush it.

    IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him

    Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer.
    Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.

    Why is it, I wonder.
    I don't think there's a single reason.

    Lots of people were never going to like a left-wing, former Trotskyist, human rights lawyer anyway.

    But he's done enough individual things to annoy just about everybody at one time or another during his short premiership.

    The private sector hates the extra taxes

    English nationalists hate the Twitter woman prosecution, persecuting Northern Ireland veterans and the record small boats numbers.

    The Loony Left hate him for all his compromises.

    English nationalists hate him because of the record small boat numbers.

    The old hate him for the WFA.

    Etc etc etc.

    He has no vision and no charisma to offset that, which Blair and Mrs Thatcher had in abundance.

    His team are widely considered terrible.

    He was holier than thou about Boris, but when in power, he never takes responsibility if he can blame his team.

    Finally, despite gigantic majorities in Parliament, he is the king of U-turns, and it is the nature of such manoeuvres that, though you save your skin the short term, the people who opposed it remember you proposed it, while the people you've let down despise you for being a coward.

    Overall it's not surprising that he's hated, the question is why anybody would like him.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,499

    https://x.com/jasongroves1/status/2052703798150214101

    Hackney's new Green mayor Zoe Garbett suggests Labour lost because it was 'putting profit before the planet and supporting genocide'

    Great the loons are in power

    Have the Greens give any indications at all what we could possibly do about Gaza? There's only one country in the world who can do anything about what Netanyahu is doing, and it isn't us.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000

    Oh great we get to see Sean’s posts twice now

    By the way, saying this name gets you banned now, remember?

    Not my rules - @TSE made the ruling yesterday
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534

    https://x.com/jasongroves1/status/2052703798150214101

    Hackney's new Green mayor Zoe Garbett suggests Labour lost because it was 'putting profit before the planet and supporting genocide'

    Great the loons are in power

    Have the Greens give any indications at all what we could possibly do about Gaza? There's only one country in the world who can do anything about what Netanyahu is doing, and it isn't us.
    Reality and the Greens aren’t a match made in heaven !
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,927
    Fishing said:

    isam said:

    Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt.
    But they shouldn't rush it.

    IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him

    Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer.
    Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.

    Why is it, I wonder.
    I don't think there's a single reason.

    Lots of people were never going to like a left-wing, former Trotskyist, human rights lawyer anyway.

    But he's done enough individual things to annoy just about everybody at one time or another during his short premiership.

    The private sector hates the extra taxes

    English nationalists hate the Twitter woman prosecution, persecuting Northern Ireland veterans and the record small boats numbers.

    The Loony Left hate him for all his compromises.

    English nationalists hate him because of the record small boat numbers.

    The old hate him for the WFA.

    Etc etc etc.

    He has no vision and no charisma to offset that, which Blair and Mrs Thatcher had in abundance.

    His team are widely considered terrible.

    He was holier than thou about Boris, but when in power, he never takes responsibility if he can blame his team.

    Finally, despite gigantic majorities in Parliament, he is the king of U-turns, and it is the nature of such manoeuvres that, though you save your skin the short term, the people who opposed it remember you proposed it, while the people you've let down despise you for being a coward.

    Overall it's not surprising that he's hated, the question is why anybody would like him.
    And everyone hates him over Mandelson.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,432
    edited May 8
    Leon said:

    While we wait for more results here’s something cool (or I think it’s cool)

    I bought a hand axe off eBay. Not just any old hand axe: a bifacially worked flint handaxe, recovered in the 1970s from a “Pleistocene channel deposit at Reculver” - on the north Kent coast. That is to say: it is of the early Acheulean tradition, and dates approximately 400,000 years before present

    To give a sense of the era: at that time the British Isles were not islands but a peninsula of the European mainland. It was found by the English Channel but dropped by its creator long before there WAS a Channel

    Even better, the maker was human but not human. Pre human. The dude that knapped my flint was almost certainly Homo heidelbergensis. Anatomically modern humans would not appear in Africa for a further 100,000 years, and would not reach Britain for another 350,000

    The thing has a deeply strange, deeply uncanny beauty, I can feel where the pre human fingers held it, smashing elephant bones to get at the marrow, scraping the red flesh of an auroch or a macaque or a hippo. The patina is subtly gorgeous and the yellowy flint positively throbs with noom

    Cost? £65

    Reculver is satisfyingly noomy anyway, just standing in the ditch (the former sea bed that separated Thanet as an isle) looking up at the ruined Saxon church and pondering various kingly to and fros.

    When we visited many years ago it was a very good 20 minute end of day antidote to a fine, traditional knickerbocker glory in Herne Bay.

    Pre human artefacts is next level though.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    Foss said:

    Fishing said:

    isam said:

    Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt.
    But they shouldn't rush it.

    IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him

    Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer.
    Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.

    Why is it, I wonder.
    I don't think there's a single reason.

    Lots of people were never going to like a left-wing, former Trotskyist, human rights lawyer anyway.

    But he's done enough individual things to annoy just about everybody at one time or another during his short premiership.

    The private sector hates the extra taxes

    English nationalists hate the Twitter woman prosecution, persecuting Northern Ireland veterans and the record small boats numbers.

    The Loony Left hate him for all his compromises.

    English nationalists hate him because of the record small boat numbers.

    The old hate him for the WFA.

    Etc etc etc.

    He has no vision and no charisma to offset that, which Blair and Mrs Thatcher had in abundance.

    His team are widely considered terrible.

    He was holier than thou about Boris, but when in power, he never takes responsibility if he can blame his team.

    Finally, despite gigantic majorities in Parliament, he is the king of U-turns, and it is the nature of such manoeuvres that, though you save your skin the short term, the people who opposed it remember you proposed it, while the people you've let down despise you for being a coward.

    Overall it's not surprising that he's hated, the question is why anybody would like him.
    And everyone hates him over Mandelson.
    Mandelson I will simply never understand. He apparently wanted Osborne yet was convinced to not go with him.

    So some of his own instincts are not terrible but he is always convinced otherwise. He is a weak-willed man with terrible judgment.

    I don’t trust him.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,693
    Fishing said:

    isam said:

    Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt.
    But they shouldn't rush it.

    IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him

    Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer.
    Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.

    Why is it, I wonder.
    I don't think there's a single reason.

    Lots of people were never going to like a left-wing, former Trotskyist, human rights lawyer anyway.

    But he's done enough individual things to annoy just about everybody at one time or another during his short premiership.

    The private sector hates the extra taxes

    English nationalists hate the Twitter woman prosecution and the record small boats numbers.

    The Loony Left hate him for all his compromises.

    English nationalists hate him because of the record small boat numbers.

    The old hate him for the WFA.

    Etc etc etc.

    He has no vision and no charisma to offset that, which Blair and Mrs Thatcher had in abundance.

    His team are widely considered terrible.

    He was holier than thou about Boris, but when in power, he never takes responsibility if he can blame his team.

    Finally, despite gigantic majorities in Parliament, he is the king of U-turns, and it is the nature of such manoeuvres that, though you save your skin the short term, the people who opposed it remember you proposed it, while the people you've let down despise you for being a coward.

    Overall it's not surprising that he's hated, the question is why anybody would like him.
    I never cared for him, having met him I didn't support him for the Labour leadership. But I don't get the hate. He's just not very good at politics. I think it's the tenor of the times, not helped by social media. People need to get outside and listen to the birds singing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,533
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    It could well be at close of play in England that all parties are secretly disappointed to some extent.

    And at the same time heartened. Reform established as the main party of the right. Greens as a serious player on the left. The Cons still very much in the game. Incremental progress for the LDs. Worst fears not transpiring for Labour.

    Main takeout: It's 5 party politics now and that's official.
    Reform are not established as you put it. Let's see what happens at the GE....
    It gives me no pleasure to say it but this is a big positive step for them. No longer just a newbie Farage vehicle topping the polls, now the leading party of the right embedded via real votes in local government across large parts of the country. They have captured most of that voter coalition that delivered Brexit and Johnson's 2019 election win. It's a strong position.
    Commendable honesty, unlike some of your lefty cousins on here. You get it precisely right. Farage will be chuffed with this result. Maybe very chuffed. Reform are now the main right wing party across most of the country. Not in polls, in actual votes in actual elections

    A failure to grasp this would be suboptimal for their opponents
    Tbf I'm not seeing anybody on 'my' side in denial that these results solidify Farage PM as a serious possibility. But don't go OTT the other way - a vain plea, I know - and interpret it as a sign that he's marching full bore and unstoppable towards Downing St. It remains more likely than not that he doesn't make it.
    lol stop patronising me, you gimp

    I’m well aware that he faces many obstacles. He’s trying to do something never done before. Take a brand new party and bring it to power in a few short years. Under FPTP that is almost impossible. It took Labour decades to supplant the Libs

    My prediction for the next GE - but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it, the times are too volatile - is that the next government will likely be a Tory-Reform coalition
    I was not patronising you. A gentle tease at most. So I really would appreciate you keeping a civil tongue in your head.

    I mean, when we're chatting about something do I just casually call you an odious piece of puffed-up, self-regarding, racist garbage? No, I don't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,344
    edited May 8
    Dad's at the Coventry count !

    Colleagues are desperate to hear about Sheffield
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,541
    Leon said:

    While we wait for more results here’s something cool (or I think it’s cool)

    I bought a hand axe off eBay. Not just any old hand axe: a bifacially worked flint handaxe, recovered in the 1970s from a “Pleistocene channel deposit at Reculver” - on the north Kent coast. That is to say: it is of the early Acheulean tradition, and dates approximately 400,000 years before present

    To give a sense of the era: at that time the British Isles were not islands but a peninsula of the European mainland. It was found by the English Channel but dropped by its creator long before there WAS a Channel

    Even better, the maker was human but not human. Pre human. The dude that knapped my flint was almost certainly Homo heidelbergensis. Anatomically modern humans would not appear in Africa for a further 100,000 years, and would not reach Britain for another 350,000

    The thing has a deeply strange, deeply uncanny beauty, I can feel where the pre human fingers held it, smashing elephant bones to get at the marrow, scraping the red flesh of an auroch or a macaque or a hippo. The patina is subtly gorgeous and the yellowy flint positively throbs with noom

    Cost? £65

    Are you sure that modern humans have in fact reached all parts of the United Kingdom?
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    Pro_Rata said:

    Leon said:

    While we wait for more results here’s something cool (or I think it’s cool)

    I bought a hand axe off eBay. Not just any old hand axe: a bifacially worked flint handaxe, recovered in the 1970s from a “Pleistocene channel deposit at Reculver” - on the north Kent coast. That is to say: it is of the early Acheulean tradition, and dates approximately 400,000 years before present

    To give a sense of the era: at that time the British Isles were not islands but a peninsula of the European mainland. It was found by the English Channel but dropped by its creator long before there WAS a Channel

    Even better, the maker was human but not human. Pre human. The dude that knapped my flint was almost certainly Homo heidelbergensis. Anatomically modern humans would not appear in Africa for a further 100,000 years, and would not reach Britain for another 350,000

    The thing has a deeply strange, deeply uncanny beauty, I can feel where the pre human fingers held it, smashing elephant bones to get at the marrow, scraping the red flesh of an auroch or a macaque or a hippo. The patina is subtly gorgeous and the yellowy flint positively throbs with noom

    Cost? £65

    Reculver is satisfyingly noomy, just standing in the ditch (the former sea bed that separated Thanet as an isle) looking up at the ruined Saxon church and pondering various kingly to and fros.

    When we visited many years ago it was a very good 20 minute end of day antidote to a fine, traditional knickerbocker glory in Herne Bay.
    Yes! I’m now determined to go there on a sunny day or two this summer (if we get one). I shall combine it with oysters - gigas - at Whitstable. It sounds like it’s got intense noom. The Victorians, the Saxons, the Romans - and 400,000 year old pre human hominid remains. Oooooh
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,630
    edited May 8
    Tories held the district seat in Epping West and Rural yesterday from Reform after a recount where I was running the committee room yesterday, though Reform won the county seat. Overall Reform surge in Epping Forest like most of Essex and indeed nationally
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    It has to be Burnham. The evidence is smacking Labour in the face.

    It may not last but he’s obviously the answer.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,295

    It has to be Burnham. The evidence is smacking Labour in the face.

    It may not last but he’s obviously the answer.

    Him in what seat?
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,625

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Brum rumours:


    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    ·
    1m
    Talk Reform could even win a maj on council, which would be huge. By far their biggest council win in history

    This is clearly Labour ramping so their results don't look so awful.
    Not a cat in hells Brum will deliver majority Reform council.
    Does seem odd given the number of Gaza "independent" candidates.
    I’m hoping the guy in Ward End in the sharp suit, nicknamed Halal Capone, storms it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,630
    Senior SNP source says a majority at Holyrood is possible but improbable. Angus Robertson likely to lose to the Greens
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    Labour MPs need to grow some balls/vaginas and publicly call for the PM to go. This anonymous briefing is pointless.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,344
    Labour has held Manchester
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,687
    What sign of the Gaza Independents? All independents currently 20 (-16). A damb squib or the likely areas are yet to be counted?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,520
    edited May 8
    HYUFD said:

    Senior SNP source says a majority at Holyrood is possible but improbable. Angus Robertson likely to lose to the Greens

    A straw in the wind for a "mixed" night for the SNP? One can only hope.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,344
    edited May 8
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour has held Manchester

    With zero seats so far (Thirds :D )
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,625

    https://x.com/jasongroves1/status/2052703798150214101

    Hackney's new Green mayor Zoe Garbett suggests Labour lost because it was 'putting profit before the planet and supporting genocide'

    Great the loons are in power

    These are the same people some PB Lib Dem’s and Lib Dem’s jn the wider world, want to ‘love bomb’ 🙄
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 847
    SNP sounding confident about taking Eastwood - would likely be Jackson Carlaw out of parliament, and could be good news for Russell Findlay's chances of holding onto a seat.

    Not much word on Labour in Scotland, I would imagine they are not in the running for many constituencies other than what they hold and East Lothian. 20 of their 22 seats from last time are on the list, where they will be under huge pressure
  • DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    While we wait for more results here’s something cool (or I think it’s cool)

    I bought a hand axe off eBay. Not just any old hand axe: a bifacially worked flint handaxe, recovered in the 1970s from a “Pleistocene channel deposit at Reculver” - on the north Kent coast. That is to say: it is of the early Acheulean tradition, and dates approximately 400,000 years before present

    To give a sense of the era: at that time the British Isles were not islands but a peninsula of the European mainland. It was found by the English Channel but dropped by its creator long before there WAS a Channel

    Even better, the maker was human but not human. Pre human. The dude that knapped my flint was almost certainly Homo heidelbergensis. Anatomically modern humans would not appear in Africa for a further 100,000 years, and would not reach Britain for another 350,000

    The thing has a deeply strange, deeply uncanny beauty, I can feel where the pre human fingers held it, smashing elephant bones to get at the marrow, scraping the red flesh of an auroch or a macaque or a hippo. The patina is subtly gorgeous and the yellowy flint positively throbs with noom

    Cost? £65

    Are you sure that modern humans have in fact reached all parts of the United Kingdom?
    I know they haven't, I've been to Paisley.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 29,251

    https://x.com/jasongroves1/status/2052703798150214101

    Hackney's new Green mayor Zoe Garbett suggests Labour lost because it was 'putting profit before the planet and supporting genocide'

    Great the loons are in power

    Have the Greens give any indications at all what we could possibly do about Gaza? There's only one country in the world who can do anything about what Netanyahu is doing, and it isn't us.
    They will "call for" things. Lots of things. And tweet a lot. That'll sort things out.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,427
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    While we wait for more results here’s something cool (or I think it’s cool)

    I bought a hand axe off eBay. Not just any old hand axe: a bifacially worked flint handaxe, recovered in the 1970s from a “Pleistocene channel deposit at Reculver” - on the north Kent coast. That is to say: it is of the early Acheulean tradition, and dates approximately 400,000 years before present

    To give a sense of the era: at that time the British Isles were not islands but a peninsula of the European mainland. It was found by the English Channel but dropped by its creator long before there WAS a Channel

    Even better, the maker was human but not human. Pre human. The dude that knapped my flint was almost certainly Homo heidelbergensis. Anatomically modern humans would not appear in Africa for a further 100,000 years, and would not reach Britain for another 350,000

    The thing has a deeply strange, deeply uncanny beauty, I can feel where the pre human fingers held it, smashing elephant bones to get at the marrow, scraping the red flesh of an auroch or a macaque or a hippo. The patina is subtly gorgeous and the yellowy flint positively throbs with noom

    Cost? £65

    Are you sure that modern humans have in fact reached all parts of the United Kingdom?
    That's no way to talk about our Northern cousins.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    Honestly Jenrick is such a wanker. How do people buy this garbage.

    He says Reform can be trusted on immigration. Mate you were in the cabinet when the immigration wave happened!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,344
    carnforth said:

    What sign of the Gaza Independents? All independents currently 20 (-16). A damb squib or the likely areas are yet to be counted?

    Birmingham hasn't reported, Greens have won the first two declarations in Manchester from Labour, Bradford has not reported yet.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    It could well be at close of play in England that all parties are secretly disappointed to some extent.

    And at the same time heartened. Reform established as the main party of the right. Greens as a serious player on the left. The Cons still very much in the game. Incremental progress for the LDs. Worst fears not transpiring for Labour.

    Main takeout: It's 5 party politics now and that's official.
    Reform are not established as you put it. Let's see what happens at the GE....
    It gives me no pleasure to say it but this is a big positive step for them. No longer just a newbie Farage vehicle topping the polls, now the leading party of the right embedded via real votes in local government across large parts of the country. They have captured most of that voter coalition that delivered Brexit and Johnson's 2019 election win. It's a strong position.
    Commendable honesty, unlike some of your lefty cousins on here. You get it precisely right. Farage will be chuffed with this result. Maybe very chuffed. Reform are now the main right wing party across most of the country. Not in polls, in actual votes in actual elections

    A failure to grasp this would be suboptimal for their opponents
    Tbf I'm not seeing anybody on 'my' side in denial that these results solidify Farage PM as a serious possibility. But don't go OTT the other way - a vain plea, I know - and interpret it as a sign that he's marching full bore and unstoppable towards Downing St. It remains more likely than not that he doesn't make it.
    lol stop patronising me, you gimp

    I’m well aware that he faces many obstacles. He’s trying to do something never done before. Take a brand new party and bring it to power in a few short years. Under FPTP that is almost impossible. It took Labour decades to supplant the Libs

    My prediction for the next GE - but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it, the times are too volatile - is that the next government will likely be a Tory-Reform coalition
    I was not patronising you. A gentle tease at most. So I really would appreciate you keeping a civil tongue in your head.

    I mean, when we're chatting about something do I just casually call you an odious piece of puffed-up, self-regarding, racist garbage? No, I don't.
    Likewise I didn’t actually you call you a sad, myopic, effeminate little prick, who yearns to be seen as intellectual but always falls slightly short. Did I say that? No. I restrained myself

    So I expect the same decorous cordiality from you
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    edited May 8
    Aaaaargh
  • SonofContrarianSonofContrarian Posts: 304
    Dopermean said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt.
    But they shouldn't rush it.

    IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him

    Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer.
    Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.

    Why is it, I wonder.
    I think it’s because he is two faced, economical with the truth, and never takes responsibility. That is true of a lot of politicians, but Sir Keir is also pious, boring to listen to, and free of charisma, which makes him intensely dislikeable.
    Also, people sense a wrong ‘un. It’s instinctive
    LOL
    The two most popular UK politicians of recent years are Boris and Farage, before that Blair was considerably more popular than Brown, despite post-PM events indicating that Blair is clearly more interested in personal wealth than ethics, while Brown has continued his campaign against child poverty. Then there's Clegg, who people still talk favourably about compared to Brown, despite him heading off to California to earn millions running the corporate whitewash for the malign child-harming entity that is Meta, which viewed impartially probably makes him a considerably bigger next tuesday than the other 4 combined.

    The clear evidence is that people cannot sense a wrong 'un.
    No-one really cares if someone is a "wrongun" as long as they're effective with a decent sprinkling of charisma.. reading the pb posters makes be think they want the Archbishop of Canterbury over a competent political operator..🥴
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,432
    carnforth said:

    What sign of the Gaza Independents? All independents currently 20 (-16). A damb squib or the likely areas are yet to be counted?

    I don't know if we've had many. I noted early doors that Labour's sole 2022 hold in Tameside, St. Peter's (effectively Ashton St. Peter's but not named so as I think it creeps over the town boundary into the Guide Bridge bit of Audenshaw) was actually won by a Gaza Independent in 2024, so Labour managed about a 5% swing against the Independent in those two years.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    Dopermean said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt.
    But they shouldn't rush it.

    IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him

    Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer.
    Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.

    Why is it, I wonder.
    I think it’s because he is two faced, economical with the truth, and never takes responsibility. That is true of a lot of politicians, but Sir Keir is also pious, boring to listen to, and free of charisma, which makes him intensely dislikeable.
    Also, people sense a wrong ‘un. It’s instinctive
    LOL
    The two most popular UK politicians of recent years are Boris and Farage, before that Blair was considerably more popular than Brown, despite post-PM events indicating that Blair is clearly more interested in personal wealth than ethics, while Brown has continued his campaign against child poverty. Then there's Clegg, who people still talk favourably about compared to Brown, despite him heading off to California to earn millions running the corporate whitewash for the malign child-harming entity that is Meta, which viewed impartially probably makes him a considerably bigger next tuesday than the other 4 combined.

    The clear evidence is that people cannot sense a wrong 'un.
    I have to admit, you have something of a point, there
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,630
    Reform have won an overall majority on Essex county council with 39 seats to 8 for the Tories, 3 for the LDs, 2 for the Independents and 1 for the Greens and RA

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2026/england/councils/E10000012
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    edited May 8
    First twoNorfolk results are Reform gains in SW Norfolk (Truss old seat) - a whompjng in Attleborough and a fairly close Ref Con scrap in Guiltcross (35 to 28)
    Looks good for Reform eatly doors
    Edit - Tories have held on in Wymondham though
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,533

    If Sir Keir is still there this time next week I’m going to vote Tory in the next mayoral election.

    Nothing merits doing something as wicked and desperate as that!

    What's the mad rush anyway? I thought you were on the Burnham train? That needs time to leave the station let alone reach its destination.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,714
    Good afternoon

    Starmer looks almost vacant in defending his position and goodness knows what labour will do

    Reform saying Plaid has won Wales and labour has tanked

    We are in very different politics and the next GE is impossible to predict
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    kinabalu said:

    If Sir Keir is still there this time next week I’m going to vote Tory in the next mayoral election.

    Nothing merits doing something as wicked and desperate as that!

    What's the mad rush anyway? I thought you were on the Burnham train? That needs time to leave the station let alone reach its destination.
    I frankly don’t care anymore. Starmer’s latest media round has annoyed me so much anyone would be better.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,422
    BBC is going reform
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,196
    Greens win all 3 seats in Byker (Newcastle upon Tyne)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 23,086
    Depressing that some pink headed loon has taken the mayoralty in Hackney.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,533

    Dopermean said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt.
    But they shouldn't rush it.

    IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him

    Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer.
    Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.

    Why is it, I wonder.
    I think it’s because he is two faced, economical with the truth, and never takes responsibility. That is true of a lot of politicians, but Sir Keir is also pious, boring to listen to, and free of charisma, which makes him intensely dislikeable.
    Also, people sense a wrong ‘un. It’s instinctive
    LOL
    The two most popular UK politicians of recent years are Boris and Farage, before that Blair was considerably more popular than Brown, despite post-PM events indicating that Blair is clearly more interested in personal wealth than ethics, while Brown has continued his campaign against child poverty. Then there's Clegg, who people still talk favourably about compared to Brown, despite him heading off to California to earn millions running the corporate whitewash for the malign child-harming entity that is Meta, which viewed impartially probably makes him a considerably bigger next tuesday than the other 4 combined.

    The clear evidence is that people cannot sense a wrong 'un.
    No-one really cares if someone is a "wrongun" as long as they're effective with a decent sprinkling of charisma.. reading the pb posters makes be think they want the Archbishop of Canterbury over a competent political operator..🥴
    Good politician and good character are not mutually exclusive.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,295
    In better news for SKS the inevitable heat death of the universe continues approaching steadily.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,670

    Dopermean said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt.
    But they shouldn't rush it.

    IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him

    Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer.
    Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.

    Why is it, I wonder.
    I think it’s because he is two faced, economical with the truth, and never takes responsibility. That is true of a lot of politicians, but Sir Keir is also pious, boring to listen to, and free of charisma, which makes him intensely dislikeable.
    Also, people sense a wrong ‘un. It’s instinctive
    LOL
    The two most popular UK politicians of recent years are Boris and Farage, before that Blair was considerably more popular than Brown, despite post-PM events indicating that Blair is clearly more interested in personal wealth than ethics, while Brown has continued his campaign against child poverty. Then there's Clegg, who people still talk favourably about compared to Brown, despite him heading off to California to earn millions running the corporate whitewash for the malign child-harming entity that is Meta, which viewed impartially probably makes him a considerably bigger next tuesday than the other 4 combined.

    The clear evidence is that people cannot sense a wrong 'un.
    No-one really cares if someone is a "wrongun" as long as they're effective with a decent sprinkling of charisma.. reading the pb posters makes be think they want the Archbishop of Canterbury over a competent political operator..🥴
    Look how well Boris did, although many of us knew he was a "wrong'un"!
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,499

    Foss said:

    Fishing said:

    isam said:

    Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt.
    But they shouldn't rush it.

    IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him

    Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2052669872467808406?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer.
    Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.

    Why is it, I wonder.
    I don't think there's a single reason.

    Lots of people were never going to like a left-wing, former Trotskyist, human rights lawyer anyway.

    But he's done enough individual things to annoy just about everybody at one time or another during his short premiership.

    The private sector hates the extra taxes

    English nationalists hate the Twitter woman prosecution, persecuting Northern Ireland veterans and the record small boats numbers.

    The Loony Left hate him for all his compromises.

    English nationalists hate him because of the record small boat numbers.

    The old hate him for the WFA.

    Etc etc etc.

    He has no vision and no charisma to offset that, which Blair and Mrs Thatcher had in abundance.

    His team are widely considered terrible.

    He was holier than thou about Boris, but when in power, he never takes responsibility if he can blame his team.

    Finally, despite gigantic majorities in Parliament, he is the king of U-turns, and it is the nature of such manoeuvres that, though you save your skin the short term, the people who opposed it remember you proposed it, while the people you've let down despise you for being a coward.

    Overall it's not surprising that he's hated, the question is why anybody would like him.
    And everyone hates him over Mandelson.
    Mandelson I will simply never understand. He apparently wanted Osborne yet was convinced to not go with him.

    So some of his own instincts are not terrible but he is always convinced otherwise. He is a weak-willed man with terrible judgment.

    I don’t trust him.
    In all honesty, things would probably have been better if Sue Gray had stayed instead of McSweeney. If he'd done the things he should have thought he'd do, he could have kept the Brahmin vote on board, even if he was - which he is anyway - getting pelters from GB News. Glasman should never have been given a time of day.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,533
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    It could well be at close of play in England that all parties are secretly disappointed to some extent.

    And at the same time heartened. Reform established as the main party of the right. Greens as a serious player on the left. The Cons still very much in the game. Incremental progress for the LDs. Worst fears not transpiring for Labour.

    Main takeout: It's 5 party politics now and that's official.
    Reform are not established as you put it. Let's see what happens at the GE....
    It gives me no pleasure to say it but this is a big positive step for them. No longer just a newbie Farage vehicle topping the polls, now the leading party of the right embedded via real votes in local government across large parts of the country. They have captured most of that voter coalition that delivered Brexit and Johnson's 2019 election win. It's a strong position.
    Commendable honesty, unlike some of your lefty cousins on here. You get it precisely right. Farage will be chuffed with this result. Maybe very chuffed. Reform are now the main right wing party across most of the country. Not in polls, in actual votes in actual elections

    A failure to grasp this would be suboptimal for their opponents
    Tbf I'm not seeing anybody on 'my' side in denial that these results solidify Farage PM as a serious possibility. But don't go OTT the other way - a vain plea, I know - and interpret it as a sign that he's marching full bore and unstoppable towards Downing St. It remains more likely than not that he doesn't make it.
    lol stop patronising me, you gimp

    I’m well aware that he faces many obstacles. He’s trying to do something never done before. Take a brand new party and bring it to power in a few short years. Under FPTP that is almost impossible. It took Labour decades to supplant the Libs

    My prediction for the next GE - but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it, the times are too volatile - is that the next government will likely be a Tory-Reform coalition
    I was not patronising you. A gentle tease at most. So I really would appreciate you keeping a civil tongue in your head.

    I mean, when we're chatting about something do I just casually call you an odious piece of puffed-up, self-regarding, racist garbage? No, I don't.
    Likewise I didn’t actually you call you a sad, myopic, effeminate little prick, who yearns to be seen as intellectual but always falls slightly short. Did I say that? No. I restrained myself

    So I expect the same decorous cordiality from you
    Good. That's a deal.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,272
    edited May 8
    Chameleon said:

    In better news for SKS the inevitable heat death of the universe continues approaching steadily.

    He'd be sat in the restaurant at the end of the universe saying no civil servant told him this would happen.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,797

    BBC is going reform

    In what sense?
    Greens won Salford Quays ward (home of BBC) with Reform last. So I suspect that is not the sense that you mean.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 34,039
    edited May 8

    Selebian said:

    Off on a tangent, but is that helmet on the front guy serving any purpose at all, other than decoration. I guess if something fell directly from above it might help, but it's not going to do anything useful in a crash.

    It's bizarre that cyclists are not required to wear effective head protection, but moped riders legally must have an approved safety helmet.

    If you come off, that chunky curb stone your head hits doesn't care what you were riding...
    Not a rabbit hole I'm pursuing, but as per usual it's probably the speed difference - between moving at 8-12mph and 25-40mph. It's also the absence of convincing evidence for taking any particular position. Instead organisations managing time trials, adventure courses etc do require helmets.

    It seems quite a sensible way to handle it.

    I note that competitors in the London Marathon (or Parkrun) are not required to wear helmets, nor are track athletes or children or adults who wish to run in their daily lives eg for exercise.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,630
    edited May 8
    Orkney first Holyrood constituency declaration. LD hold but a massive 10.5% swing from SNP to LD since 2021

    LDs 7221, SNP 1,661, Reform 844, Conservatives 358, Labour 199
This discussion has been closed.