politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds it’s not going
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LOL!!!!!Tissue_Price said:HaveIGotNewsForYou @haveigotnews
Cameron says Russia will face serious economic and financial consequences if it destabilises Ukraine. It will be forced to join the EU.0 -
Good spot. "Majority's" another word you don't hear much even though from a punting pov it's a form horse ;-)Pulpstar said:Off topic - why is the word "coalition" constantly banded about by all and sundry including in the print and broadcast media. Just because we've had one doesn't mean we're due another "arrangement" would be a far better word.
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Most of the weighting comes from the self-reported likelihood to vote figures - ie declared supporters of UKIP are more likely to say that they don't know if they will bother to vote.Hengists_Gift said:The situation in those seats would seem to rest on how much in these uniquely interesting times the weighting presumptions from previous elections still apply.....
You seem to be suggesting that it is unreasonable for the pollster to take this response at face value, and that they would be better off assuming that, of course, they will all vote.
Certainly there are voters there to be convinced by UKIP that it is worth the trouble going out to vote, and they may well be convinced. At the moment some of them aren't. The poll is simply reporting that result.0 -
So, odds on a Greek exit? Or will the eurozone force the Germans out instead?
THis is how the EU should be run. We're paying. So X is not going to happen, no matter how many chattering leeches say it should.
If we could establish this precedent, I reckon UKIP would disappear and there would be widespread support for even bigger contributions.
We are paying so we are getting our concessions.0 -
Tory GE Seats ease slightly to a mid price of 281 with Sporting, just 3 seats ahead of Labour on 278. Spreadex goes 283 and 278 respectively.0
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Are UKIP strongest in Tilbury, with some support in Grays, Conservatives do best in Orsett ?0
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The things Cameron would need to get kippers back would push other Tory supporters out of the tent, which is why he's still being vague.taffys said:Nobody knows what Britain wants, they're all over the place.
Disagree.
I'm sure Merkel knows exactly what powers Cameron needs to get back the UKIP voters he needs for power.
He's told her often enough.0 -
Whilst I don't disagree with you, it's not quite as clear cut as that. 11% voted LibDem last time, Thurrock has some affluent areas and it also has a reasonable-sized ethnic minority vote which is unlikely to be heading UKIP-wards.isam said:
You can't have ever been to Thurrock!!Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably mainly the first category, but Thurrock looks as though it might have a reasonable number of the second.isam said:What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
It's at the bottom or my road, one if the main reasons I backed Ukip at 16/1 in Thurrock last year was because the demographic is v similar to that of goodhays in havering which Ukip won in the council elections... Believe me it is not a lefty liberal place, I can't think of anywhere less so0 -
A related EU/Greece question: if Greece leaves the Eurozone, would it be booted out of the EU?FrankBooth said:
That would be an end to free movement. Which they will never agree to.taffys said:Nobody knows what Britain wants, they're all over the place.
Disagree.
I'm sure Merkel knows exactly what powers Cameron needs to get back the UKIP voters he needs for power.
He's told her often enough.
It seems unthinkable that it would, and as such I would expect to see a new Greek diaspora as hundreds of thousands sought refuge/work across the rest of Europe as the economy in the homeland utterly collapsed.
How would the wealthy north of the EU react to that?
What would be the impact of large capital outflows as remittances went back to be converted into New Drachma?
Is this a lever the UK can use to regain a measure of control over its borders?0 -
Do you think Miliband & Cameron might agree jointly to bin them and go for a bare knuckle fight, just the two? Cant see any benefit for either lab or tories for debates now. Relegate the minor parties entirely and go head-to-head without debates. Seems obvious. Neither the two main party's benefits from the debates.Stereotomy said:
Well, "just south" here may mean 20 or 30 seats. Unless there's a significant overall swing one way or the other before the election, or the polls perform badly, there's a good chance that number of seats might matter.Purseybear said:
If true thats bad news for ukip? if they cant get over the line in their best seats their vote share's gonna be v low elsewhere by my reckoning?Sean_F said:
UKIP are at 32% in these seats. Prior to reallocation of don't knows, they're on 34%. Droves of Labour voters from 2010 seem to be switching to them. I don't think that's fading.BenM said:UKIP fading?
Good.
This election's looking a 2-horse race: Cons v Lab. Scotland's an interesting sideshow that only comes into play if Lab are just south of an outright maj.
2 party politics returns to Britain?
[Irony is, the 2 parties may collect less vote share than ever before. It's just that the 'minor' parties aren't going to scoop seats if this goes on. Spread too thinly. Thats our voting system for you.]
Honestly my feeling is that people aren't doing enough to take into account the uncertainty added by the debates, especially with them so close to the election. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Miliband v Cameron led to a 2% bump one way or the other on polling day.0 -
I'm not sure you understand the concept of swing. If you think the Lab>Tory swing in Liverpool will be higher than in the marginals, then say so. I haven't seen evidence for that yet. Miliband does not appear to be inspiring confidence in Labour's heartlands.MarqueeMark said:
Every seat Labour wins in one-party Liverpool or Manchester or Newcastle is a missed Gloucester or Worcester or Chester...FrankBooth said:
Hmm. The key is not to simply be more efficient but to be more efficient than Labour. The Tory>Lab swing in these seats is lower than the national average. That means it must be higher elsewhere.DavidL said:These polls if true are yet more compelling evidence for the increased efficiency of the Tory vote in 2015 compared to 2010. Winning seats by smallish margins is Labour's trick and the Tories are now managing it. If the Tories and Labour poll anything like 2010 they will gain seats.
Of course I still expect Labour to poll better than 2010, at least in England.
How can both Lab and Tory be more voter efficient? Because Ukip is going to pile up a ton of votes and virtually no MPs. Newsnight reckoned last night that the Tories could get a majority with 38% of the vote now. For Labour it was 36%. If it weren't for the dastardly SNP perhaps it would be 33%.0 -
Steady on, we never actually see the bus fall over!Floater said:
Remind me how that worked out :-)frpenkridge said:
The Greek bus is hanging over cliff. Tsipras is saying "Hang on a minute, lads. I've got a great idea".Floater said:Have the Germans just thrown Greece under the bus?
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Should be Tory>Lab swing.0
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its almost as if Labour are making it all up as they go alongScott_P said:
So Margate Hodge attacks PwC.TCPoliticalBetting said:Probably a gift in staff time. How can they be given back? Withdraw labour? Send a bill to them? Labour to pay PWC?
Ed says in the HoC he has not taken a penny from any "dodgy" donors.
Today Labour have said the PwC donation is fine so they are not giving it back.
Awesome
I mean no one can plan to look that stupid can they?0 -
Well they're obviously good for UKIP in that the seats are clearly winnable. But we knew that before: they were favourites for these 3 seats, and to justify that I think they'd need to have been 3-4% ahead at this stage on the headline numbers.isam said:
Strange to me that you think these polls are bad for Ukip. They are in front on unweighted numbers in seats that have never been polled by this pollster beforeTissue_Price said:Tories worth a punt in Great Yarmouth (7/4) off the back of these polls?
As for weighting, I'd rather go with the weighted numbers than the unweighted ones, but I agree that there's huge potential for polling cock-up in this election.0 -
Floater said:
Remind me how that worked out :-)frpenkridge said:
The Greek bus is hanging over cliff. Tsipras is saying "Hang on a minute, lads. I've got a great idea".Floater said:Have the Germans just thrown Greece under the bus?
Russell Brand was born in Orsett hospital. Be fun if he were to stand in Thurrock for his refreshing er, brand of politics....Pulpstar said:
Thurrock as well as having... Tilbury... also has the wonderful village of Orsett.Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably mainly the first category, but Thurrock looks as though it might have a reasonable number of the second.isam said:What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
Grays is somewhere in the middle.0 -
:-)Peter_the_Punter said:
Maybe his canvassers went to the wrong constituency.isam said:By the way, it is NW Cambs that Ukip are strongest in... Strange that lord Ashcroft polled North East
Actually :-o0 -
Mr. Bear, not sure that works either.
Right now, Labour is seen as good, Conservative bad. Cameron is seen as good, Miliband band [simplifying, but my point stands].
The debates are a chance of Miliband to improve his standing, and for Cameron to lose his.0 -
Izzy
"Kicking a black man off a train is a "minor infringement?" Gosh. Do you think Mandela would agree? "
A mischievous comment but it made me laugh0 -
I'm guessing Basildon Tesco doesn't have that much of a World Foods aisle, and that quinoa sales are on the meagre side.Richard_Nabavi said:
Whilst I don't disagree with you, it's not quite as clear cut as that. 11% voted LibDem last time, Thurrock has some affluent areas and it also has a reasonable-sized ethnic minority vote which is unlikely to be heading UKIP-wards.isam said:
You can't have ever been to Thurrock!!Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably mainly the first category, but Thurrock looks as though it might have a reasonable number of the second.isam said:What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
It's at the bottom or my road, one if the main reasons I backed Ukip at 16/1 in Thurrock last year was because the demographic is v similar to that of goodhays in havering which Ukip won in the council elections... Believe me it is not a lefty liberal place, I can't think of anywhere less so0 -
Expectations. RUmour swirled that ukip were on course for Boston.isam said:
Strange to me that you think these polls are bad for Ukip. They are in front on unweighted numbers in seats that have never been polled by this pollster beforeTissue_Price said:Tories worth a punt in Great Yarmouth (7/4) off the back of these polls?
You wanna be careful about cherry picking polling. Dangerous if you're a punter. I mean, like, disregarding weightings to fit what you want [guessing you're a ukipper]. Just friendly advice. Take or leave.0 -
Sounds like a pretty racist assumption on your part that you think that people in Eastern Ukraine have no agency of their own. I guess you think it's ok that 400 police officers in Kharkov have just lost their jobs for holding pro Russian opinions. Disgusting.Richard_Tyndall said:
The only joker round here is you. I understand that Cameron has been photographed in the past shaking hands with Putin. Which must of course mean he supports his attempted annexation of Eastern Ukraine.Flightpath said:
Keep defending him. What a joker you are. Don't like it up 'em thats you.
That is the level of your argument which is why most sensible people on here rightly consider you a bit of a tosser.0 -
Kippers aren't that homogeneous. If he got some material, populist concessions, reckon that would be enough to get a fair few back inside the Tory tent pissing out.edmundintokyo said:
The things Cameron would need to get kippers back would push other Tory supporters out of the tent, which is why he's still being vague.taffys said:Nobody knows what Britain wants, they're all over the place.
Disagree.
I'm sure Merkel knows exactly what powers Cameron needs to get back the UKIP voters he needs for power.
He's told her often enough.
Exactly what those concessions would be though...?0 -
Consider it left Auders!Purseybear said:
Expectations. RUmour swirled that ukip were on course for Boston.isam said:
Strange to me that you think these polls are bad for Ukip. They are in front on unweighted numbers in seats that have never been polled by this pollster beforeTissue_Price said:Tories worth a punt in Great Yarmouth (7/4) off the back of these polls?
You wanna be careful about cherry picking polling. Dangerous if you're a punter. I mean, like, disregarding weightings to fit what you want [guessing you're a ukipper]. Just friendly advice. Take or leave.0 -
Isn't the Tesco in Basildon and Billericay (as opposed to S Basildon and E Thurrock)?Tissue_Price said:
I'm guessing Basildon Tesco doesn't have that much of a World Foods aisle, and that quinoa sales are on the meagre side.Richard_Nabavi said:
Whilst I don't disagree with you, it's not quite as clear cut as that. 11% voted LibDem last time, Thurrock has some affluent areas and it also has a reasonable-sized ethnic minority vote which is unlikely to be heading UKIP-wards.isam said:
You can't have ever been to Thurrock!!Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably mainly the first category, but Thurrock looks as though it might have a reasonable number of the second.isam said:What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
It's at the bottom or my road, one if the main reasons I backed Ukip at 16/1 in Thurrock last year was because the demographic is v similar to that of goodhays in havering which Ukip won in the council elections... Believe me it is not a lefty liberal place, I can't think of anywhere less so0 -
True - come to think of it, what we really need is statistics on supermarkets. The number of Waitroses for each seat would be interesting to know.Tissue_Price said:I'm guessing Basildon Tesco doesn't have that much of a World Foods aisle, and that quinoa sales are on the meagre side.
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Sunil_Prasannan said:
Steady on, we never actually see the bus fall over!Floater said:
Remind me how that worked out :-)frpenkridge said:
The Greek bus is hanging over cliff. Tsipras is saying "Hang on a minute, lads. I've got a great idea".Floater said:Have the Germans just thrown Greece under the bus?
Apparently the "great idea" was (if you want to know)... that they would run the bus until the fuel run out. This would lower the weight at the back and they could all get out the front. The bus would then crash down the mountain side and the gold captured by the Mafia. Film 2 would be the chase across Europe to get it back. I think it works best the way it was left though.
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They weren't favourites in South badildon and east thurrock, they were 10/3Tissue_Price said:
Well they're obviously good for UKIP in that the seats are clearly winnable. But we knew that before: they were favourites for these 3 seats, and to justify that I think they'd need to have been 3-4% ahead at this stage on the headline numbers.isam said:
Strange to me that you think these polls are bad for Ukip. They are in front on unweighted numbers in seats that have never been polled by this pollster beforeTissue_Price said:Tories worth a punt in Great Yarmouth (7/4) off the back of these polls?
As for weighting, I'd rather go with the weighted numbers than the unweighted ones, but I agree that there's huge potential for polling cock-up in this election.0 -
There used to be a pub called the Orsett Cock (still gives its name to the A13/A128 junction).MarqueeMark said:Floater said:
Remind me how that worked out :-)frpenkridge said:
The Greek bus is hanging over cliff. Tsipras is saying "Hang on a minute, lads. I've got a great idea".Floater said:Have the Germans just thrown Greece under the bus?
Russell Brand was born in Orsett hospital. Be fun if he were to stand in Thurrock for his refreshing er, brand of politics....Pulpstar said:
Thurrock as well as having... Tilbury... also has the wonderful village of Orsett.Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably mainly the first category, but Thurrock looks as though it might have a reasonable number of the second.isam said:What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
Grays is somewhere in the middle.0 -
Blimey Sunil...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Isn't the Tesco in Basildon and Billericay (as opposed to S Basildon and E Thurrock)?Tissue_Price said:
I'm guessing Basildon Tesco doesn't have that much of a World Foods aisle, and that quinoa sales are on the meagre side.Richard_Nabavi said:
Whilst I don't disagree with you, it's not quite as clear cut as that. 11% voted LibDem last time, Thurrock has some affluent areas and it also has a reasonable-sized ethnic minority vote which is unlikely to be heading UKIP-wards.isam said:
You can't have ever been to Thurrock!!Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably mainly the first category, but Thurrock looks as though it might have a reasonable number of the second.isam said:What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
It's at the bottom or my road, one if the main reasons I backed Ukip at 16/1 in Thurrock last year was because the demographic is v similar to that of goodhays in havering which Ukip won in the council elections... Believe me it is not a lefty liberal place, I can't think of anywhere less so
I used to live in Romford, once upon a time. The only occasion for going to Basildon was when we'd discovered an exploitable quiz machine and were busy trying to find all the pubs with it in.0 -
I walked the entire length of Thurrock in 2013 as part of my A13 walk from Aldgate to Shoeburyness (not all at once, I have to say!).0
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Chatted to some pple down the pub last night. One NHS worker said she's Labour switching UKIP. Three other females in 20's (one a student), two first timers. Two said voting tory. One prob tory but looking at greens.
Anecdotal so just as dangerous for punters as cherry picking polls so read nowt into it. Just out of curiosity.0 -
Sorry, true. And actually 4/1 (Lads) looks fair enough for them there - would rather pick UKIP than Lab to take on the Tories with.isam said:
They weren't favourites in South badildon and east thurrock, they were 10/3Tissue_Price said:
Well they're obviously good for UKIP in that the seats are clearly winnable. But we knew that before: they were favourites for these 3 seats, and to justify that I think they'd need to have been 3-4% ahead at this stage on the headline numbers.isam said:
Strange to me that you think these polls are bad for Ukip. They are in front on unweighted numbers in seats that have never been polled by this pollster beforeTissue_Price said:Tories worth a punt in Great Yarmouth (7/4) off the back of these polls?
As for weighting, I'd rather go with the weighted numbers than the unweighted ones, but I agree that there's huge potential for polling cock-up in this election.0 -
Afternoon all. I see Ladbrokes reporting the money now on the Tories in Boston. In the new seat predictor yesterday I had UKIP on 1, Douglas Carswell.0
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I am not suggesting anything of the sort, that is the way you are interpreting it. We can all make our own minds up about the figures. However given the large number of unknowns I think it would be complacent to just take the weighted figures in isolation at face value when time and again pollsters and psephologists readily admit that in the current circumstances they have little idea how any of this is going to play out.OblitusSumMe said:
Most of the weighting comes from the self-reported likelihood to vote figures - ie declared supporters of UKIP are more likely to say that they don't know if they will bother to vote.Hengists_Gift said:The situation in those seats would seem to rest on how much in these uniquely interesting times the weighting presumptions from previous elections still apply.....
You seem to be suggesting that it is unreasonable for the pollster to take this response at face value, and that they would be better off assuming that, of course, they will all vote.
Certainly there are voters there to be convinced by UKIP that it is worth the trouble going out to vote, and they may well be convinced. At the moment some of them aren't. The poll is simply reporting that result.
What the unweighted figures show is that there are more UKIP leaning voters in those seats than for any other party. It is up to UKIP now to firm that vote up. However, in my view it would be foolish to disregard that consideration at this point.0 -
As a lad, I used to go to Basildon a lot in the late 80s when we knew about Toys R' Us - then Lakeside opened in 1990...Tissue_Price said:
Blimey Sunil...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Isn't the Tesco in Basildon and Billericay (as opposed to S Basildon and E Thurrock)?Tissue_Price said:
I'm guessing Basildon Tesco doesn't have that much of a World Foods aisle, and that quinoa sales are on the meagre side.Richard_Nabavi said:
Whilst I don't disagree with you, it's not quite as clear cut as that. 11% voted LibDem last time, Thurrock has some affluent areas and it also has a reasonable-sized ethnic minority vote which is unlikely to be heading UKIP-wards.isam said:
You can't have ever been to Thurrock!!Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably mainly the first category, but Thurrock looks as though it might have a reasonable number of the second.isam said:What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
It's at the bottom or my road, one if the main reasons I backed Ukip at 16/1 in Thurrock last year was because the demographic is v similar to that of goodhays in havering which Ukip won in the council elections... Believe me it is not a lefty liberal place, I can't think of anywhere less so
I used to live in Romford, once upon a time. The only occasion for going to Basildon was when we'd discovered an exploitable quiz machine and were busy trying to find all the pubs with it in.0 -
I'm saying UNS is broken.FrankBooth said:
I'm not sure you understand the concept of swing. If you think the Lab>Tory swing in Liverpool will be higher than in the marginals, then say so. I haven't seen evidence for that yet. Miliband does not appear to be inspiring confidence in Labour's heartlands.MarqueeMark said:
Every seat Labour wins in one-party Liverpool or Manchester or Newcastle is a missed Gloucester or Worcester or Chester...FrankBooth said:
Hmm. The key is not to simply be more efficient but to be more efficient than Labour. The Tory>Lab swing in these seats is lower than the national average. That means it must be higher elsewhere.DavidL said:These polls if true are yet more compelling evidence for the increased efficiency of the Tory vote in 2015 compared to 2010. Winning seats by smallish margins is Labour's trick and the Tories are now managing it. If the Tories and Labour poll anything like 2010 they will gain seats.
Of course I still expect Labour to poll better than 2010, at least in England.
How can both Lab and Tory be more voter efficient? Because Ukip is going to pile up a ton of votes and virtually no MPs. Newsnight reckoned last night that the Tories could get a majority with 38% of the vote now. For Labour it was 36%. If it weren't for the dastardly SNP perhaps it would be 33%.0 -
Doesn't work like that. There's a Waitrose in Sheffield Central but not in Sheffield Hallam.Richard_Nabavi said:
True - come to think of it, what we really need is statistics on supermarkets. The number of Waitroses for each seat would be interesting to know.Tissue_Price said:I'm guessing Basildon Tesco doesn't have that much of a World Foods aisle, and that quinoa sales are on the meagre side.
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Do you think you could work these focus groups into a more substantial weekly article for the site? I'm sure OGH would be interested. Maybe try a Lord Ashcroft-style "if the party leaders were a TV presenter, who would they be?" question too.Purseybear said:Chatted to some pple down the pub last night. One NHS worker said she's Labour switching UKIP. Three other females in 20's (one a student), two first timers. Two said voting tory. One prob tory but looking at greens.
Anecdotal so just as dangerous for punters as cherry picking polls so read nowt into it. Just out of curiosity.0 -
I've just lumped on Tory maj on that basis. Thanks!Purseybear said:Chatted to some pple down the pub last night. One NHS worker said she's Labour switching UKIP. Three other females in 20's (one a student), two first timers. Two said voting tory. One prob tory but looking at greens.
Anecdotal so just as dangerous for punters as cherry picking polls so read nowt into it. Just out of curiosity.0 -
Getting some reaction from a well placed friend in Europe. This has rocked the boat (capsized if anything). Germany voiced these concerns previously and that there is no concept of a bridging loan. Everyone ignored them, but now they have halted all proceedings on that basis and gone against the EU consensus. Greece was climbing down on a preplanned path with the standard EU theatre, but now Germany are 1 vs 18. The difference is that they are the major partner in all of this with 28% of all outstanding funds owed to them.
No one really knows where to go from here. The Greek contingent are said to be feeling betrayed as they would now have stuck to their guns of a 1.5% surplus and cancellation of austerity measures if they knew the compromise would have been rejected and the rest of the EMU nations know they can't push Germany around on this.
Greece is heading for the exit door barring a last minute fudge. I'm not sure how this ends, this was supposed to be the last minute fudge and now it has been rejected by the major creditor nation despite waving it through earlier in the week.0 -
Ah, just googled - A127 Tesco is in Basildon and Billericay, and the Pitsea one on the A13 is in S Basildon and E Thurrock.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Isn't the Tesco in Basildon and Billericay (as opposed to S Basildon and E Thurrock)?Tissue_Price said:
I'm guessing Basildon Tesco doesn't have that much of a World Foods aisle, and that quinoa sales are on the meagre side.Richard_Nabavi said:
Whilst I don't disagree with you, it's not quite as clear cut as that. 11% voted LibDem last time, Thurrock has some affluent areas and it also has a reasonable-sized ethnic minority vote which is unlikely to be heading UKIP-wards.isam said:
You can't have ever been to Thurrock!!Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably mainly the first category, but Thurrock looks as though it might have a reasonable number of the second.isam said:What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
It's at the bottom or my road, one if the main reasons I backed Ukip at 16/1 in Thurrock last year was because the demographic is v similar to that of goodhays in havering which Ukip won in the council elections... Believe me it is not a lefty liberal place, I can't think of anywhere less so0 -
No it doesn't. It shows that there were more UKIP-leaning voters in their samples.Hengists_Gift said:What the unweighted figures show is that there are more UKIP leaning voters in those seats than for any other party.
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It's obvious. An end to free movement. All the noises suggest they'll never agree to that though. If the Euro explodes in Merkel's face, all bets might be off though.MarqueeMark said:
Kippers aren't that homogeneous. If he got some material, populist concessions, reckon that would be enough to get a fair few back inside the Tory tent pissing out.edmundintokyo said:
The things Cameron would need to get kippers back would push other Tory supporters out of the tent, which is why he's still being vague.taffys said:Nobody knows what Britain wants, they're all over the place.
Disagree.
I'm sure Merkel knows exactly what powers Cameron needs to get back the UKIP voters he needs for power.
He's told her often enough.
Exactly what those concessions would be though...?
I wonder if this is the biggest threat to Ed's chances of being PM. A full blown Euro crisis is the sort of thing that might make the British hang on to nurse.0 -
Lots of nota voted lib dem in 2010Richard_Nabavi said:
Whilst I don't disagree with you, it's not quite as clear cut as that. 11% voted LibDem last time, Thurrock has some affluent areas and it also has a reasonable-sized ethnic minority vote which is unlikely to be heading UKIP-wards.isam said:
You can't have ever been to Thurrock!!Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably mainly the first category, but Thurrock looks as though it might have a reasonable number of the second.isam said:What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
It's at the bottom or my road, one if the main reasons I backed Ukip at 16/1 in Thurrock last year was because the demographic is v similar to that of goodhays in havering which Ukip won in the council elections... Believe me it is not a lefty liberal place, I can't think of anywhere less so
I don't know that thurrock has many affluent areas... Maybe a couple of big houses in the countryside, but not many.
I literally live next door to it, my dad was manager of tilbury town fc, and I used to work in lakeside!
The affluent people would vote tory Id have thought...believeme, Thurrock is not a liberal lefty type place.
Mind you ive been told I was wrong about Thurrock all the way from 16/1 to 4/7 so am used to it now0 -
Feels a bit weird that the UK is not the current EU pariah.MaxPB said:Getting some reaction from a well placed friend in Europe. This has rocked the boat (capsized if anything). Germany voiced these concerns previously and that there is no concept of a bridging loan. Everyone ignored them, but now they have halted all proceedings on that basis and gone against the EU consensus. Greece was climbing down on a preplanned path with the standard EU theatre, but now Germany are 1 vs 18. The difference is that they are the major partner in all of this with 28% of all outstanding funds owed to them.
No one really knows where to go from here. The Greek contingent are said to be feeling betrayed as they would now have stuck to their guns of a 1.5% surplus and cancellation of austerity measures if they knew the compromise would have been rejected and the rest of the EMU nations know they can't push Germany around on this.
Greece is heading for the exit door barring a last minute fudge. I'm not sure how this ends, this was supposed to be the last minute fudge and now it has been rejected by the major creditor nation despite waving it through earlier in the week.0 -
Roger's taxi drivers need some counterpoint....Tissue_Price said:
Do you think you could work these focus groups into a more substantial weekly article for the site? I'm sure OGH would be interested. Maybe try a Lord Ashcroft-style "if the party leaders were a TV presenter, who would they be?" question too.Purseybear said:Chatted to some pple down the pub last night. One NHS worker said she's Labour switching UKIP. Three other females in 20's (one a student), two first timers. Two said voting tory. One prob tory but looking at greens.
Anecdotal so just as dangerous for punters as cherry picking polls so read nowt into it. Just out of curiosity.
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hehe. Don't go to the same pub enough. Soz about posting it. Got me interested tho - young ppl voting tory [? green] and the NHS worker going Lab to UKIP maybe the biggest. She said there is a lot of anti tory sentiment in the nhs.Tissue_Price said:
Do you think you could work these focus groups into a more substantial weekly article for the site? I'm sure OGH would be interested. Maybe try a Lord Ashcroft-style "if the party leaders were a TV presenter, who would they be?" question too.Purseybear said:Chatted to some pple down the pub last night. One NHS worker said she's Labour switching UKIP. Three other females in 20's (one a student), two first timers. Two said voting tory. One prob tory but looking at greens.
Anecdotal so just as dangerous for punters as cherry picking polls so read nowt into it. Just out of curiosity.
You're right tho' Guess this place would be chaos as anecdote central. Dodgy as hell for punters.0 -
Your Tory metropolitan prejudices are showing!Richard_Nabavi said:
True.Tissue_Price said:I'm guessing Basildon Tesco doesn't have that much of a World Foods aisle, and that quinoa sales are on the meagre side.
(I last went to Basildon in 2013 - Pitsea Tesco was just like any other store in the chain!).
0 -
''Greece was climbing down on a preplanned path with the standard EU theatre, but now Germany are 1 vs 18.''
Welcome to our world, Angela.0 -
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-31525040
"Assistant Chief Constable Wayne Mawson told the committee that a total of 20,086 records had been lost because a "computer programmer pressed the wrong button between May and July last year".
https://robinnewmanbooks.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/oops-key-on-keyboard.jpg0 -
Costco offers a selection of products with quinoa....Tissue_Price said:
I'm guessing Basildon Tesco doesn't have that much of a World Foods aisle, and that quinoa sales are on the meagre side.Richard_Nabavi said:
Whilst I don't disagree with you, it's not quite as clear cut as that. 11% voted LibDem last time, Thurrock has some affluent areas and it also has a reasonable-sized ethnic minority vote which is unlikely to be heading UKIP-wards.isam said:
You can't have ever been to Thurrock!!Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably mainly the first category, but Thurrock looks as though it might have a reasonable number of the second.isam said:What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
It's at the bottom or my road, one if the main reasons I backed Ukip at 16/1 in Thurrock last year was because the demographic is v similar to that of goodhays in havering which Ukip won in the council elections... Believe me it is not a lefty liberal place, I can't think of anywhere less so0 -
So funny. It's that point in the evening where Germany's taken its card from behind the bar, and no other f8cker can afford to buy a round.
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I wouldn't know, I almost never go into a Tesco store, and on the rare occasions when I do I get out as soon as I possibly can.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Your Tory metropolitan prejudices are showing!Richard_Nabavi said:
True.Tissue_Price said:I'm guessing Basildon Tesco doesn't have that much of a World Foods aisle, and that quinoa sales are on the meagre side.
(I last went to Basildon in 2013 - Pitsea Tesco was just like any other store in the chain!).
I did however once make the mistake of buying a 'Tesco's Finest' Lasagne, a mistake which I then compounded by actually eating it. The mind boggles at what their downmarket range must be like if that was their 'finest'.
0 -
I backed ukip there long ago at 20/1, in my eyes it should be the same price as ThurrockTissue_Price said:
Sorry, true. And actually 4/1 (Lads) looks fair enough for them there - would rather pick UKIP than Lab to take on the Tories with.isam said:
They weren't favourites in South badildon and east thurrock, they were 10/3Tissue_Price said:
Well they're obviously good for UKIP in that the seats are clearly winnable. But we knew that before: they were favourites for these 3 seats, and to justify that I think they'd need to have been 3-4% ahead at this stage on the headline numbers.isam said:
Strange to me that you think these polls are bad for Ukip. They are in front on unweighted numbers in seats that have never been polled by this pollster beforeTissue_Price said:Tories worth a punt in Great Yarmouth (7/4) off the back of these polls?
As for weighting, I'd rather go with the weighted numbers than the unweighted ones, but I agree that there's huge potential for polling cock-up in this election.
Whether that means Thurrock is too short or this is too long is down to interpretation
Re weighted numbers, I am more interested in the unweighted, and draw my own conclusions from them. Maybe I'm wrong, so what? It'd be me that loses money... So far so good on my own methods though
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One of my French friends accused me the other day of speaking "King's French"TheScreamingEagles said:
I learnt French, German and Latin at school, plus I can speak, inter alia, Urdu and PunjabiSunil_Prasannan said:
I learnt French AND GermanTheScreamingEagles said:
One of the reasons I learned French at school, was so I could mock les grenouilles in their own language.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, not sure I'd see anything wrong with calling the frogs frogs, anymore than I'd be irked to be called a rosbif (which, I gather, is French for 'clearly superior Anglo-Saxon').
They hate the Rosbification of their language.
(up to GCSE level, at any rate!)
They really do need to update the textbooks at school...
(admittedly I had just sent her a text reading Merci Madam, Vous ete tres gentil)0 -
Basildon and Billericay is #276 in non-white populationisam said:
Lots of nota voted lib dem in 2010Richard_Nabavi said:
Whilst I don't disagree with you, it's not quite as clear cut as that. 11% voted LibDem last time, Thurrock has some affluent areas and it also has a reasonable-sized ethnic minority vote which is unlikely to be heading UKIP-wards.isam said:
You can't have ever been to Thurrock!!Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably mainly the first category, but Thurrock looks as though it might have a reasonable number of the second.isam said:What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
It's at the bottom or my road, one if the main reasons I backed Ukip at 16/1 in Thurrock last year was because the demographic is v similar to that of goodhays in havering which Ukip won in the council elections... Believe me it is not a lefty liberal place, I can't think of anywhere less so
I don't know that thurrock has many affluent areas... Maybe a couple of big houses in the countryside, but not many.
I literally live next door to it, my dad was manager of tilbury town fc, and I used to work in lakeside!
The affluent people would vote tory Id have thought...believeme, Thurrock is not a liberal lefty type place.
Mind you ive been told I was wrong about Thurrock all the way from 16/1 to 4/7 so am used to it now
S Basildon and E Thurrock is #279
http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc174/index.html0 -
Thank you for the correction. You are of course quite right to highlight that polls are just samples.Richard_Nabavi said:
No it doesn't. It shows that there were more UKIP-leaning voters in their samples.Hengists_Gift said:What the unweighted figures show is that there are more UKIP leaning voters in those seats than for any other party.
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It's the button wot lost it!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-31525040
I hope it won't affect my sporran.0 -
Well this is the thing. There's an election coming up, so if there was something meaningful, popular with substantial numbers of kipper-curious voters, didn't alienate anybody important and didn't provoke audible giggling from other countries that are supposed to sign off on it, we'd all already know about it. If we don't, it means Cameron doesn't either.MarqueeMark said:
Kippers aren't that homogeneous. If he got some material, populist concessions, reckon that would be enough to get a fair few back inside the Tory tent pissing out.edmundintokyo said:
The things Cameron would need to get kippers back would push other Tory supporters out of the tent, which is why he's still being vague.taffys said:Nobody knows what Britain wants, they're all over the place.
Disagree.
I'm sure Merkel knows exactly what powers Cameron needs to get back the UKIP voters he needs for power.
He's told her often enough.
Exactly what those concessions would be though...?0 -
I wonder what % of voters currently saying they will vote Labour or UKIP wont actually go anywhere near a polling station (or cast a postal vote) on 7th May? I reckon about 10 of each.0
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Agreement_on_German_External_Debtstaffys said:So funny. It's that point in the evening where Germany's taken its card from behind the bar, and no other f8cker can afford to buy a round.
0 -
What about Rosa Parks?Ishmael_X said:
Kicking a black man off a train is a "minor infringement?" Gosh. Do you think Mandela would agree?Roger said:thought for the day re being expelled for being racist at Millfield. If this 21 year old is found to be one of those responsible for kicking the black man off the train there is no doubt his career will be blighted for what amounts to a minor infringement . He will probably be forever tarred. At Millfield two boys were expelled for improper conduct with each other. One went on to have a successful career in public life and is reasonably well known. If this part of his past was now known I'm sure he would get nothing but sympathy.
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On the two UKIP targets near me:
Rother Valley 422/632 "non white" 3%
Rotherham 164/632 13.4%
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I'd go with "Thaler"Anorak said:
It would then be called "ze pount" surely.MarqueeMark said:Germany should do the sensible thing. Get out the of Euro.
And adopt the pound.
Nice ring to it - and the Dutch corruption of the word (daaler) is very familiar0 -
Wasn't it a cliffhanger?Floater said:
Remind me how that worked out :-)frpenkridge said:
The Greek bus is hanging over cliff. Tsipras is saying "Hang on a minute, lads. I've got a great idea".Floater said:Have the Germans just thrown Greece under the bus?
(I'll get my coat)0 -
Today's Daily Record front page has the news that SLAB is fcuked and Jim Murphy winning the leadership has, if anything led to Labour going backwards in Scotland.0
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UKIP have a considerable potential advantage over what they can offer for the simple reason that unlike the Pro EU parties they are not constrained by EU policy and EU sovereignty.edmundintokyo said:
Well this is the thing. There's an election coming up, so if there was something meaningful, popular with substantial numbers of kipper-curious voters, didn't alienate anybody important and didn't provoke audible giggling from other countries that are supposed to sign off on it, we'd all already know about it. If we don't, it means Cameron doesn't either.MarqueeMark said:
Kippers aren't that homogeneous. If he got some material, populist concessions, reckon that would be enough to get a fair few back inside the Tory tent pissing out.edmundintokyo said:
The things Cameron would need to get kippers back would push other Tory supporters out of the tent, which is why he's still being vague.taffys said:Nobody knows what Britain wants, they're all over the place.
Disagree.
I'm sure Merkel knows exactly what powers Cameron needs to get back the UKIP voters he needs for power.
He's told her often enough.
Exactly what those concessions would be though...?0 -
Re Greece,
Good democracy in action
Germany - My way or the Highway0 -
These seats are showing rises in the UKIP vote share of anything from 20-36%. My guess is that you would see similar rises in the Thanets, Thurrock, Dover, Folkestone, South Yorkshire (outside of Sheffield) , Cornwall, Plymouth, Grimsby, Dudley. Those rises are similar to the kind of swings the SNP is getting. If UKIP can maintain those figures, it seems very likely that at least some of the seats in question will fall to them.0
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I feel a bit for the Greeks. They aren't exactly asking for that much. However if they can't get anything here then it's plain that the sort of fiscal reforms to make the Euro work aren't going to happen. Are the Germans looking for an excuse to force the Greeks out?0
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I find the reaction to Germany's stance on all sides astonishing.
People really can't seem to grasp that a major government could make a simple decision not to throw good taxpayer money after bad0 -
RichardN,
" It shows that there were more UKIP-leaning voters in their samples."
And in my anecdotal Boston samples too. They're everywhere. It's a good job they'll never vote, isn't it?0 -
You know seaside donkeys - when they get so old they can't even carry the weight of a small child on their back? Well....Richard_Nabavi said:
I wouldn't know, I almost never go into a Tesco store, and on the rare occasions when I do I get out as soon as I possibly can.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Your Tory metropolitan prejudices are showing!Richard_Nabavi said:
True.Tissue_Price said:I'm guessing Basildon Tesco doesn't have that much of a World Foods aisle, and that quinoa sales are on the meagre side.
(I last went to Basildon in 2013 - Pitsea Tesco was just like any other store in the chain!).
I did however once make the mistake of buying a 'Tesco's Finest' Lasagne, a mistake which I then compounded by actually eating it. The mind boggles at what their downmarket range must be like if that was their 'finest'.0 -
But they're in no position to ask for anything at this point in time.FrankBooth said:I feel a bit for the Greeks. They aren't exactly asking for that much. However if they can't get anything here then it's plain that the sort of fiscal reforms to make the Euro work aren't going to happen. Are the Germans looking for an excuse to force the Greeks out?
0 -
Apparently, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross ranks #632 out of 632 GB constituencies for "non-white population".Easterross said:I wonder what % of voters currently saying they will vote Labour or UKIP wont actually go anywhere near a polling station (or cast a postal vote) on 7th May? I reckon about 10 of each.
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Possibly... I know for a fact that it is NW cambs ukip are confident about not NEPeter_the_Punter said:
Maybe his canvassers went to the wrong constituency.isam said:By the way, it is NW Cambs that Ukip are strongest in... Strange that lord Ashcroft polled North East
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Agreement_on_German_External_Debtstaffys said:I find the reaction to Germany's stance on all sides astonishing.
People really can't seem to grasp that a major government could make a simple decision not to throw good taxpayer money after bad0 -
My German is Hochdeutsch, which is at such odds with my native cockney that it caused one of my teachers to comment that my German accent is a good deal better than my English.Charles said:
One of my French friends accused me the other day of speaking "King's French"TheScreamingEagles said:
I learnt French, German and Latin at school, plus I can speak, inter alia, Urdu and PunjabiSunil_Prasannan said:
I learnt French AND GermanTheScreamingEagles said:
One of the reasons I learned French at school, was so I could mock les grenouilles in their own language.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, not sure I'd see anything wrong with calling the frogs frogs, anymore than I'd be irked to be called a rosbif (which, I gather, is French for 'clearly superior Anglo-Saxon').
They hate the Rosbification of their language.
(up to GCSE level, at any rate!)
They really do need to update the textbooks at school...
(admittedly I had just sent her a text reading Merci Madam, Vous ete tres gentil)0 -
What do seaside donkeys get for lunch?MarqueeMark said:
You know seaside donkeys - when they get so old they can't even carry the weight of a small child on their back? Well....Richard_Nabavi said:
I wouldn't know, I almost never go into a Tesco store, and on the rare occasions when I do I get out as soon as I possibly can.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Your Tory metropolitan prejudices are showing!Richard_Nabavi said:
True.Tissue_Price said:I'm guessing Basildon Tesco doesn't have that much of a World Foods aisle, and that quinoa sales are on the meagre side.
(I last went to Basildon in 2013 - Pitsea Tesco was just like any other store in the chain!).
I did however once make the mistake of buying a 'Tesco's Finest' Lasagne, a mistake which I then compounded by actually eating it. The mind boggles at what their downmarket range must be like if that was their 'finest'.
- an hour, the same as everyone else :-)0 -
Things must be bad in Euroland - the BBC are leading with it. Are there no Tories to bash?
By the by, on the news the other day, I noticed the senior German negotiator was a very stern looking guy in a wheelchair. I thought "this won't end well for Greece - they've brought Dr Strangelove out of retirement...."
Was that wrong?0 -
Sorry - but that doesn't happen. EVERY computer programmer knows to do back-ups before messing around with data.Pong said:http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-31525040
"Assistant Chief Constable Wayne Mawson told the committee that a total of 20,086 records had been lost because a "computer programmer pressed the wrong button between May and July last year".
https://robinnewmanbooks.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/oops-key-on-keyboard.jpg0 -
Mr. Mark, could've been worse. At least you didn't think of Blofeld.0
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It would indicate that it wouldn't work out well for Germany either.MarqueeMark said:Things must be bad in Euroland - the BBC are leading with it. Are there no Tories to bash?
By the by, on the news the other day, I noticed the senior German negotiator was a very stern looking guy in a wheelchair. I thought "this won't end well for Greece - they've brought Dr Strangelove out of retirement...."
Was that wrong?0 -
weejonnie said:
Sorry - but that doesn't happen. EVERY computer programmer knows to do back-ups before messing around with data.Pong said:http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-31525040
"Assistant Chief Constable Wayne Mawson told the committee that a total of 20,086 records had been lost because a "computer programmer pressed the wrong button between May and July last year".
https://robinnewmanbooks.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/oops-key-on-keyboard.jpg
Perhaps s/he pressed the button to "Deliver Files"? Obviously with limited space, this is shortened to "Del".
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Finger on the pulse time from UKIP candidate Victoria Ayling...What happens when the renewable energy runs out...Order Order..0
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At least Blofeld had a volcano - it was 9 degrees F here this morning.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Mark, could've been worse. At least you didn't think of Blofeld.
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Did they press the same button 20,086 times between May and July.....?Pong said:http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-31525040
"Assistant Chief Constable Wayne Mawson told the committee that a total of 20,086 records had been lost because a "computer programmer pressed the wrong button between May and July last year".
https://robinnewmanbooks.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/oops-key-on-keyboard.jpg0 -
Mine is Schweizerdeutsch, so I suspect we'd better stick to English!Peter_the_Punter said:
My German is Hochdeutsch, which is at such odds with my native cockney that it caused one of my teachers to comment that my German accent is a good deal better than my English.Charles said:
One of my French friends accused me the other day of speaking "King's French"TheScreamingEagles said:
I learnt French, German and Latin at school, plus I can speak, inter alia, Urdu and PunjabiSunil_Prasannan said:
I learnt French AND GermanTheScreamingEagles said:
One of the reasons I learned French at school, was so I could mock les grenouilles in their own language.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, not sure I'd see anything wrong with calling the frogs frogs, anymore than I'd be irked to be called a rosbif (which, I gather, is French for 'clearly superior Anglo-Saxon').
They hate the Rosbification of their language.
(up to GCSE level, at any rate!)
They really do need to update the textbooks at school...
(admittedly I had just sent her a text reading Merci Madam, Vous ete tres gentil)0 -
That's a stroke of luck for the Tories. Otherwise we'd still be hearing about the dangers of deflation and the spike in youth unemployment.MarqueeMark said:Things must be bad in Euroland - the BBC are leading with it. Are there no Tories to bash?
By the by, on the news the other day, I noticed the senior German negotiator was a very stern looking guy in a wheelchair. I thought "this won't end well for Greece - they've brought Dr Strangelove out of retirement...."
Was that wrong?0 -
Quite simply amazing that people have taken these polls as bad for ukip... It almost confirms a bias more extreme than I thought possible.Sean_F said:These seats are showing rises in the UKIP vote share of anything from 20-36%. My guess is that you would see similar rises in the Thanets, Thurrock, Dover, Folkestone, South Yorkshire (outside of Sheffield) , Cornwall, Plymouth, Grimsby, Dudley. Those rises are similar to the kind of swings the SNP is getting. If UKIP can maintain those figures, it seems very likely that at least some of the seats in question will fall to them.
Ahead on unweighted numbers in South Basildon and East thurrock is simply amazing. I'm on them to win this and am happier about it now than at 10.59 this morning0 -
In Linux that could never happen. You have to type a command that is eight characters long: "rm -r /*"Pong said:http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-31525040
"Assistant Chief Constable Wayne Mawson told the committee that a total of 20,086 records had been lost because a "computer programmer pressed the wrong button between May and July last year".
https://robinnewmanbooks.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/oops-key-on-keyboard.jpg
Handily they teach this command to everyone on the first morning of any Linux/Unix shell-scripting course.0 -
F1: Nasr and Wolff crash during testing. Cars are wrecked for the day, though there appear to be no injuries:
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/31755/9721564/susie-wolff-crashes-out-of-barcelona-test-after-collision-with-felipe-nasr0 -
I wouldn't say they were bad but they call into question Ukip's odds on position in various seats.isam said:
Quite simply amazing that people have taken these polls as bad for ukip... It almost confirms a bias more extreme than I thought possible.Sean_F said:These seats are showing rises in the UKIP vote share of anything from 20-36%. My guess is that you would see similar rises in the Thanets, Thurrock, Dover, Folkestone, South Yorkshire (outside of Sheffield) , Cornwall, Plymouth, Grimsby, Dudley. Those rises are similar to the kind of swings the SNP is getting. If UKIP can maintain those figures, it seems very likely that at least some of the seats in question will fall to them.
Ahead on unweighted numbers in South Basildon and East thurrock is simply amazing. I'm on them to win this and am happier about it now than at 10.59 this morning0 -
What were they testing - the barriers?Morris_Dancer said:F1: Nasr and Wolff crash during testing. Cars are wrecked for the day, though there appear to be no injuries:
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/31755/9721564/susie-wolff-crashes-out-of-barcelona-test-after-collision-with-felipe-nasr
0 -
— Bristol UKIP (@BristolUkip) February 19, 2015
0 -
The numbers speak for themselves. A vote share of 15% overall for UKIP, means a vote share of 16-17% in England. That means a vote share of 20% outside London and the core cities. That means a vote share of 25-30% in UKIP's best counties. That means a vote share of 30%+ in UKIP's best seats. That means some of UKIP's targets fall.isam said:
Quite simply amazing that people have taken these polls as bad for ukip... It almost confirms a bias more extreme than I thought possible.Sean_F said:These seats are showing rises in the UKIP vote share of anything from 20-36%. My guess is that you would see similar rises in the Thanets, Thurrock, Dover, Folkestone, South Yorkshire (outside of Sheffield) , Cornwall, Plymouth, Grimsby, Dudley. Those rises are similar to the kind of swings the SNP is getting. If UKIP can maintain those figures, it seems very likely that at least some of the seats in question will fall to them.
Ahead on unweighted numbers in South Basildon and East thurrock is simply amazing. I'm on them to win this and am happier about it now than at 10.59 this morning0 -
Surely you'd concede that you can't really claim a rise of 36% as a true reflection, given that Bob Spink MP polled 27% in Castle Point last time with UKIP support? So ignoring Castle Point, you're looking at a rise of 23% on average. Which isn't winning UKIP anything [by-elections excepted].isam said:
Quite simply amazing that people have taken these polls as bad for ukip... It almost confirms a bias more extreme than I thought possible.Sean_F said:These seats are showing rises in the UKIP vote share of anything from 20-36%. My guess is that you would see similar rises in the Thanets, Thurrock, Dover, Folkestone, South Yorkshire (outside of Sheffield) , Cornwall, Plymouth, Grimsby, Dudley. Those rises are similar to the kind of swings the SNP is getting. If UKIP can maintain those figures, it seems very likely that at least some of the seats in question will fall to them.
Ahead on unweighted numbers in South Basildon and East thurrock is simply amazing. I'm on them to win this and am happier about it now than at 10.59 this morning
Clearly these numbers are impressive, given where you were in 2010. Clearly they are consistent with 15% or so nationwide. But these are some of UKIP's best seats and they aren't currently winning them according to the pollster's own interpretation of their data. If you want to interpret otherwise, go right ahead.0 -
Simplistic. None fall if Labour or the Tories still get 32%.....Sean_F said:
The numbers speak for themselves. A vote share of 15% overall for UKIP, means a vote share of 16-17% in England. That means a vote share of 20% outside London and the core cities. That means a vote share of 25-30% in UKIP's best counties. That means a vote share of 30%+ in UKIP's best seats. That means some of UKIP's targets fall.isam said:
Quite simply amazing that people have taken these polls as bad for ukip... It almost confirms a bias more extreme than I thought possible.Sean_F said:These seats are showing rises in the UKIP vote share of anything from 20-36%. My guess is that you would see similar rises in the Thanets, Thurrock, Dover, Folkestone, South Yorkshire (outside of Sheffield) , Cornwall, Plymouth, Grimsby, Dudley. Those rises are similar to the kind of swings the SNP is getting. If UKIP can maintain those figures, it seems very likely that at least some of the seats in question will fall to them.
Ahead on unweighted numbers in South Basildon and East thurrock is simply amazing. I'm on them to win this and am happier about it now than at 10.59 this morning
0 -
Mr. Mark, car safety, one assumes.0
