Not only does UKIP need to be ahead in these seats but they also need to get that vote all out. Past performance suggests this is where the Tories have an advantage, but that depends on how good 'safe' seats are at conducting regular canvasses and the Tories attention will be split over dozens of seats on election day.
I think everything comes down to the quality of the local constituency organisation in each case.
The parties are neck and neck (even after adjustment for weighting) among voters aged under 65, but the Tories are ahead by 13% among those aged over 65.
Yes, and if CCHQ offer B&S extra support and resource, I'd expect a Tory hold on that basis. If UKIP were ahead by 6-7% in this poll I'd think differently.
The big difference between Survation and Ashcroft marginals polling is that the former has no political weighting. It has generally shown higher UKIP shares
Look at the relative Con to Lab swings here it might mean that the Tories don't need to be 11.4% ahead of Labour in England to stop seat losses to Lab.
The recent marginals poll showed a swing from Tory>Lab of 9%. Current England polling shows a swing nationally of about 9%. The marginals don't look very different to be honest.
Which poll of the marginals showed a 9% Con to Lab swing in England?
Sorry I mean 4.5% swing. The ComRes ITV one the other day. Suggests Lab would gain 50 odd Tory seats.
Cheers, you had me panicked there, wondering how I missed a 9% swing in the marginals.
I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?
Could also have implications North of the Border.
I rebacked Labour in P&RS to take out my stake.
Just checked.
The Survation Boston polling was conducted start of September and saw a comfortable UKIP gain.
UKIP selected the 22 year as their candidate at the end of November
Lord Ashcroft polled end of Jan and found a Tory hold.
I reckon it is the age of the candidate.
I know, Post hoc ergo propter hoc
I'm not sure Neil Hamilton would have done much better.
I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?
Fair play to him for being interested in politics, but I'm sure his age will swing a few votes away from him.
His age didnt stop him from being elected to the County Council. I cant see it being that much of a negative for him.
The great thing about single constituency polling is that you can see how quite a lot of things that apply nationally have no bearing on local politics.
UKIP may be the party that attracts most hostility *nationally* but among Labour voters in the seats surveyed (and in Clacton and Rochester) far more are willing to switch to UKIP than to the Conservatives.
UKIP may lag among younger voters nationally, but have no difficulty attracting support from younger voters in these constituencies (it's the over 65's who give the Conservatives the edge).
I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?
I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?
Could also have implications North of the Border.
I rebacked Labour in P&RS to take out my stake.
Just checked.
The Survation Boston polling was conducted start of September and saw a comfortable UKIP gain.
UKIP selected the 22 year as their candidate at the end of November
Lord Ashcroft polled end of Jan and found a Tory hold.
I reckon it is the age of the candidate.
I know, Post hoc ergo propter hoc
I'm not sure Neil Hamilton would have done much better.
Funnily enough, looking through the Survation Boston polling, Neil Hamilton's name is mentioned before the VI questions!
I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?
Could also have implications North of the Border.
What were the unweighted scores in survations poll?
Not sure we can conclude much more than that they're all marginal except for NE Cambs - the assumptions on turnout and reversion of doubtfuls to former party are very difficult to assess in this sort of situation. As with the SNP in Scotland, the UKIP support contains lots of non-voters from 2010, who seem keen to vote this time - whether we believe them or not is pretty much guesswork.
South Basildon does look like a fun place for open-minded types keen to have a nice choice of possible winners...
Not sure we can conclude much more than that they're all marginal except for NE Cambs - the assumptions on turnout and reversion of doubtfuls to former party are very difficult to assess in this sort of situation. As with the SNP in Scotland, the UKIP support contains lots of non-voters from 2010, who seem keen to vote this time - whether we believe them or not is pretty much guesswork.
South Basildon does look like a fun place for open-minded types keen to have a nice choice of possible winners...
I think we could be heading for one of the strangest elections since the 1922-24 period, with wild swings in individual constituencies.
In GE2010 the kipper had 919,000 people voting for them, if we take a 15% figure this time and a similar turn out, they are going to have around 4 million people voting for them.
Expecting those extra 3m+ voters to fall in the same places and proportions as the original 919k voters from GE2010, especially since most of the GE2010 intake were Tories, and more than half of those since are ex-Labour, and a lot of the rest are NOTA LDs, is a massive stretch I think. VI weighting being tested to destruction imo.
That's not how past-vote weighting works.
I know how it works. You ask people for their 2010 VI, and weight the sample so it reflects the actual GE2010 result in the same population.
Since the number of kippers has quadrupled, more or less, the vast majority of them voted for someone other than UKIP in GE2010, so weighting them to a GE2010 is a nonsense, it means you are dropping loads of kippers from the sample because there were a lot less kippers then.
It will be even more odd with the Green vote, think of all those constituencies which have maybe 2-3 thousand Green voters now, but didn't even have a Green candidate last time around, weighting them down, or in any direction based on GE2010 would be very odd (and I am fairly sure pollsters don't do it).
That is the crux though, if you don't weight a sample because their was no Green candidate, why weight a sample quite heavily because their was a kipper candidate last time but almost no one had heard of him. By all means feel complacent, but those four million kipper voters have to go somewhere, they cant be weighted down in all constituencies.
South Basildon might still be good prospect for UKIP. Candidate is ex-Lord Mayor of London, former president of the Institute of Taxation and someone I know well.
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings. Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond. Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.
BTW a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole population
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
Raw figures for all future polls please. OTOH it might be a good day to bet on UKIP in these seats as the odds have lengthened in response to these polls.
"Parsons, a former pupil at the £30,000 a year Millfield public school, works as an assistant at the financial services firm, the Business and Commercial Finance Club in Mayfair."
Just seeing an ex Millfield schoolboy drinking with Farage is surprising enough.... the one thing I can vouch for is that the ethos of Millfield uniquely among public schools was the antithesis of racist. No other school at the time-even state schools-had more ethnic minorities (though many were crown princes and the children of foreign dignitaries) .
And had anyone shown any signs of racism they would have been expelled (It was the socialists they disliked!)
Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole population
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.
Margaret Hodge says PricewaterhouseCoopers takes part in 'tax avoidance on industrial scale' as figures show it was Labour’s biggest non-union donor
Would this be the same Labour whose leader, and prospective Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury told the House of Common only last week that that Labour Party had not accepted any donations from tax avoiders, not on his watch ?
I've switched my position in Boston... which some might call an overreaction - but run winners & cutting losers is a betting maxim I've heard from somewhere...
Not sure we can conclude much more than that they're all marginal except for NE Cambs - the assumptions on turnout and reversion of doubtfuls to former party are very difficult to assess in this sort of situation. As with the SNP in Scotland, the UKIP support contains lots of non-voters from 2010, who seem keen to vote this time - whether we believe them or not is pretty much guesswork.
South Basildon does look like a fun place for open-minded types keen to have a nice choice of possible winners...
People will think I am lying but I know many people who are voting Ukip but wouldn't admit to it in polite company... Even myself to a certain extent
I work in partnership with a Dutch guy and went to his place after my Ukip candidate interview on a Sunday morning in a suit... He was 'wtf are you doing in a suit' and after a lot if trying to change the subject I told him. As he has a middle eastern fiancée and an Owen jones book on the shelf I was worried this could be the end! But he was cool with it and is pretty anti establishment politics anyway
My best mates are voting Ukip but say don't know if people ask. Who can blame them when everyone from other parties says you must be racist/sexist/homophobic to do so?
Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole population
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.
And not doing raw unweighted numbers will be the reason why they will get it horribly wrong in 2015.
No point weighting against past voting patterns if the voters have decided to radically change their voting patterns more than at any time since the 1920s
I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings. Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond. Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.
BTW a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.
South Basildon might still be good prospect for UKIP. Candidate is ex-Lord Mayor of London, former president of the Institute of Taxation and someone I know well.
Might still be a good prospect?? They are ahead before the weightings
Not sure we can conclude much more than that they're all marginal except for NE Cambs - the assumptions on turnout and reversion of doubtfuls to former party are very difficult to assess in this sort of situation. As with the SNP in Scotland, the UKIP support contains lots of non-voters from 2010, who seem keen to vote this time - whether we believe them or not is pretty much guesswork.
South Basildon does look like a fun place for open-minded types keen to have a nice choice of possible winners...
People will think I am lying but I know many people who are voting Ukip but wouldn't admit to it in polite company... Even myself to a certain extent
I work in partnership with a Dutch guy and went to his place after my Ukip candidate interview on a Sunday morning in a suit... He was 'wtf are you doing in a suit' and after a lot if trying to change the subject I told him. As he has a middle eastern fiancée and an Owen jones book on the shelf I was worried this could be the end! But he was cool with it and is pretty anti establishment politics anyway
My best mates are voting Ukip but say don't know if people ask. Who can blame them when everyone from other parties says you must be racist/sexist/homophobic to do so?
I don't get the point that Marquee Mark and TSE are making about these polls suggesting an advantage for the Conservatives in their vote distribution vis a vis Labour.
The average Con to Lab swing according to the GB polls appears to be 4%, and in England a little higher at about 5%.
The Con to Lab swing in these 4 seats is 3.5%, 4%, 2.5% and 3% respectively. This means Labour is under-performing the national swing in these seats. This is good for Labour, because they are doing relatively worse in seats they are not going to win i.e. they are wasting fewer votes.
That means they must be doing better in other seats to make up for this relative under-performance. Now, it is eminently possible that Labour will outperform in their safe seats, leading to more inefficiency in their vote, but these polls do not provide any evidence for this.
Just seeing an ex Millfield schoolboy drinking with Farage is surprising enough.... the one thing I can vouch for is that the ethos of Millfield uniquely among public schools was the antithesis of racist. No other school at the time-even state schools-had more ethnic minorities (though many were crown princes and the children of foreign dignitaries) .
And had anyone shown any signs of racism they would have been expelled (It was the socialists they disliked!)
I think the wail are on very thin ice here. All we actually appear to know is that social media users claim he is a person photoed on a paris underground train on which an altercation allegedly took place. No one appears to have any evidence as to exactly who was involved in the altercation and who was chanting offensively.
So unless someone has invented a criminal offence of "being on an underground train with a racist", this guy appears to me to be getting the Christopher Jeffries treatment.
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings. Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond. Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.
BTW a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
You are frothing, old boy.
The French for "surprise" is "surprise"*. "Fromage" means "cheese".
Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole population
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.
And not doing raw unweighted numbers will be the reason why they will get it horribly wrong in 2015.
No point weighting against past voting patterns if the voters have decided to radically change their voting patterns more than at any time since the 1920s
As I've said, Lord Ashcroft got the Clacton and Rochester & Strood by elections closer than Survation.
As Mike said down below
"The big difference between Survation and Ashcroft marginals polling is that the former has no political weighting. It has generally shown higher UKIP shares"
Edit: I've just realised you're the chap who said last night, people think the second Lord Ashcroft question is about local council elections. I should have realised
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings. Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond. Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.
BTW a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?
Almost as if the press has been reporting rumours of a bid for it.
or rumours of a very large rushed print job.....
Your gist might be right, although I could not possibly comment. But the phrasing is not quite right. The print job would have some very large numbers on it.
Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole population
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.
Too much read into too small a sample size... There have only been 7 elections in 30 years.
I know you think in a complete numptie with stats etc but I do analyse stats and bet on the results for a living, and am relatively successful at it. The fact is that this election is unlike others because if the SNP and Ukip effect as well as the lib dem drop. I could be wrong but I think there is a big chance the pollsters are wingjng it on Unchartered territory.
Put it this way, I bet in in running cricket a lot and if I used the 2007 model to trade today's fixtures I'd back the side to defend every time and lose overall. So models need to be flexible and change with time
"So unless someone has invented a criminal offence of "being on an underground train with a racist", this guy appears to me to be getting the Christopher Jeffries treatment."
Possibly but the photo of him sharing a pint with Farage and being one of only four possible suspects in that carriage makes a pretty convincing prima facie case
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings. Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond. Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.
BTW a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?
I wonder what he'd make (to take a purely hypothetical example) of a Tory MP wearing a Nazi uniform at a stag night.
South Basildon might still be good prospect for UKIP. Candidate is ex-Lord Mayor of London, former president of the Institute of Taxation and someone I know well.
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings. Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond. Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.
BTW a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?
It reads like he is trying to type with one hand....
Almost as if the press has been reporting rumours of a bid for it.
or rumours of a very large rushed print job.....
One $50 million currency deal wouldn't push the price up that much. And I'd be surprised if you could rush a printing job on that scale through quickly. Never mind making up the plates, they have to make the paper first at the Bathford mill.
Aren't you the know-all who once read a Ben Goldacre column and are therefore rather against drawing conclusions from insufficient evidence, succumbing to confirmation bias, and believing what you read in the Daily Mail? What precisely are you claiming you "couldn't make up"?
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings. Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond. Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.
BTW a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?
One wonders why there are no reports of him contacting Chelsea management to tell them all he knows.
Unless I’ve missed something, in which case I apologise in advance for the interpretation.
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings. Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond. Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.
BTW a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?
If Farage had not talked about traffic jams about tube travellers about rough diamonds and his supporters had not talked about ting tongs and sluts and... ah well to be fair it is all a bit boring isn't it when you list out all the dog whistles. There would be no need to 'wind people up'. As it is just when despite all of that just when you think St Nige cannot possibly be linked to any more crass stupidity and maybe you were wrong to suggest it in the first place - there it comes up again.
Almost as if the press has been reporting rumours of a bid for it.
or rumours of a very large rushed print job.....
Your gist might be right, although I could not possibly comment. But the phrasing is not quite right. The print job would have some very large numbers on it.
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings. Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond. Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.
BTW a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?
I wonder what he'd make (to take a purely hypothetical example) of a Tory MP wearing a Nazi uniform at a stag night.
Or indeed a councillor that referred to 'frogs', 'ragheads' and 'sons of camel drivers' on his social media, but still appears to be on the council, and after previously having been suspended for describing people as "jungle bunnies"
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings. Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond. Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.
BTW a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
You are frothing, old boy.
The French for "surprise" is "surprise"*. "Fromage" means "cheese".
In GE2010 the kipper had 919,000 people voting for them, if we take a 15% figure this time and a similar turn out, they are going to have around 4 million people voting for them.
Expecting those extra 3m+ voters to fall in the same places and proportions as the original 919k voters from GE2010, especially since most of the GE2010 intake were Tories, and more than half of those since are ex-Labour, and a lot of the rest are NOTA LDs, is a massive stretch I think. VI weighting being tested to destruction imo.
That's not how past-vote weighting works.
I know how it works. You ask people for their 2010 VI, and weight the sample so it reflects the actual GE2010 result in the same population.
Since the number of kippers has quadrupled, more or less, the vast majority of them voted for someone other than UKIP in GE2010, so weighting them to a GE2010 is a nonsense, it means you are dropping loads of kippers from the sample because there were a lot less kippers then.
Er, no it doesn't, because you weight respondents on their past vote, not their current vote.
A problem would occur if there is false recall, which might happen if new UKIP voters are so ashamed of their former vote that they tell the pollsters they voted UKIP in 2010 too.
I think you are thinking about the party ID weighting, which is a different kettle of fish entirely.
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings. Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond. Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.
BTW a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?
If Farage had not talked about traffic jams about tube travellers about rough diamonds and his supporters had not talked about ting tongs and sluts and... ah well to be fair it is all a bit boring isn't it when you list out all the dog whistles. There would be no need to 'wind people up'. As it is just when despite all of that just when you think St Nige cannot possibly be linked to any more crass stupidity and maybe you were wrong to suggest it in the first place - there it comes up again.
Farage hasn't been linked to anything, except in what passes for your mind.
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings. Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond. Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.
BTW a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?
If Farage had not talked about traffic jams about tube travellers about rough diamonds and his supporters had not talked about ting tongs and sluts and... ah well to be fair it is all a bit boring isn't it when you list out all the dog whistles. There would be no need to 'wind people up'. As it is just when despite all of that just when you think St Nige cannot possibly be linked to any more crass stupidity and maybe you were wrong to suggest it in the first place - there it comes up again.
Farage hasn't been linked to anything, except in what passes for your mind.
Keep defending him. What a joker you are. Don't like it up 'em thats you.
In GE2010 the kipper had 919,000 people voting for them, if we take a 15% figure this time and a similar turn out, they are going to have around 4 million people voting for them.
Expecting those extra 3m+ voters to fall in the same places and proportions as the original 919k voters from GE2010, especially since most of the GE2010 intake were Tories, and more than half of those since are ex-Labour, and a lot of the rest are NOTA LDs, is a massive stretch I think. VI weighting being tested to destruction imo.
That's not how past-vote weighting works.
I know how it works. You ask people for their 2010 VI, and weight the sample so it reflects the actual GE2010 result in the same population.
Since the number of kippers has quadrupled, more or less, the vast majority of them voted for someone other than UKIP in GE2010, so weighting them to a GE2010 is a nonsense, it means you are dropping loads of kippers from the sample because there were a lot less kippers then.
Er, no it doesn't, because you weight respondents on their past vote, not their current vote.
A problem would occur if there is false recall, which might happen if new UKIP voters are so ashamed of their former vote that they tell the pollsters they voted UKIP in 2010 too.
I think you are thinking about the party ID weighting, which is a different kettle of fish entirely.
That's what my first paragraph said. ask people who they voted for in 2010, then weight the sample according to what the people in the survey population (ie the constituency) actually voted in GE2010.
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings. Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond. Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.
BTW a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?
If Farage had not talked about traffic jams about tube travellers about rough diamonds and his supporters had not talked about ting tongs and sluts and... ah well to be fair it is all a bit boring isn't it when you list out all the dog whistles. There would be no need to 'wind people up'. As it is just when despite all of that just when you think St Nige cannot possibly be linked to any more crass stupidity and maybe you were wrong to suggest it in the first place - there it comes up again.
Farage hasn't been linked to anything, except in what passes for your mind.
Keep defending him. What a joker you are. Don't like it up 'em thats you.
I suggest you take the beam out of your own eye first.
Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole population
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.
Too much read into too small a sample size... There have only been 7 elections in 30 years.
I know you think in a complete numptie with stats etc but I do analyse stats and bet on the results for a living, and am relatively successful at it. The fact is that this election is unlike others because if the SNP and Ukip effect as well as the lib dem drop. I could be wrong but I think there is a big chance the pollsters are wingjng it on Unchartered territory.
Put it this way, I bet in in running cricket a lot and if I used the 2007 model to trade today's fixtures I'd back the side to defend every time and lose overall. So models need to be flexible and change with time
Weren't you only the other day, trying to create a whole new meme, based on three occurrences.
The pollsters do and are adapting all the time, they constantly check and update.
I look at the Indyref, new and uncharted territory, a lot of them got it within 1-2%.
A while back Kippers said, we should ignore the pollsters that don't prompt for UKIP, because Survation did, and Survation had the highest scores for UKIP. I said it wasn't prompting but a fundamental methodology choice by Survation that saw them get the highest UKIP share.
So other pollsters started prompting, and lo and behold, no real change in UKIP's share.
"So unless someone has invented a criminal offence of "being on an underground train with a racist", this guy appears to me to be getting the Christopher Jeffries treatment."
Possibly but the photo of him sharing a pint with Farage and being one of only four possible suspects in that carriage makes a pretty convincing prima facie case
But, Rog, I can count seven faces in that picture and my strong guess is that the other bits of stuff you can see behind them are bits of other people.
Furthermore if you look at the picture which does seem to show a black man on the platform confronting someone on the train you will see that the someone on the train is in bright blue. No one in the other picture is in bright blue. (Nor do they seem to be chanting, incidentally). Therefore the probability is that the carriage with Parsons in is not the carriage in which the incident occurred.
Perhaps you meant "a pretty convincing prima facie case of no case to answer".
The prospect of £ notes being printed by a French owned company, could drive the Kippers into a frenzy.
It wasnt just kippers. How anyone thought any company was going to get a contract worth a present value of tens of millions of pounds out of the Greeks (how many drachmas were they going to be printing?!) these days is beyond me but it was fun while it lasted.
Mr. Indigo, not sure I'd see anything wrong with calling the frogs frogs, anymore than I'd be irked to be called a rosbif (which, I gather, is French for 'clearly superior Anglo-Saxon').
Mr. Indigo, not sure I'd see anything wrong with calling the frogs frogs, anymore than I'd be irked to be called a rosbif (which, I gather, is French for 'clearly superior Anglo-Saxon').
Me neither, although the other terms might be a little close to the knuckle. But the point is people who what to slam other parties for questionable language/behaviour/donors(!) etc probably should make sure their own house is in order first.
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings. Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond. Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.
BTW a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?
No one or no-one are the only acceptable spellings.
Mr. Indigo, not sure I'd see anything wrong with calling the frogs frogs, anymore than I'd be irked to be called a rosbif (which, I gather, is French for 'clearly superior Anglo-Saxon').
One of the reasons I learned French at school, was so I could mock les grenouilles in their own language.
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings. Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond. Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.
BTW a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?
No one or no-one are the only acceptable spellings.
He's not particularly funny, maybe he's serious after all?
Peter_the_Punter said: » show previous quotes There's certainly some comfort for the Tories in these polls.
They rather confirm and small easing off of support for UKIP. That eases things generally for the Conservatives in England.
Sporting Index's spread of 6-8 looks about right now, though of course that factors in high-side risk, so 4 or 5 seats currently looks like the correct projection. ----------------------------------------------------------- I see that Mr Senior is getting excited - again. Remember the snapshot meme. I bet that 3 of these seats fall to UKIP at the actual GE. £100 evens sez so, to you and Mr Senior only.
Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole population
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.
Too much read into too small a sample size... There have only been 7 elections in 30 years.
I know you think in a complete numptie with stats etc but I do analyse stats and bet on the results for a living, and am relatively successful at it. The fact is that this election is unlike others because if the SNP and Ukip effect as well as the lib dem drop. I could be wrong but I think there is a big chance the pollsters are wingjng it on Unchartered territory.
Put it this way, I bet in in running cricket a lot and if I used the 2007 model to trade today's fixtures I'd back the side to defend every time and lose overall. So models need to be flexible and change with time
Weren't you only the other day, trying to create a whole new meme, based on three occurrences.
The pollsters do and are adapting all the time, they constantly check and update.
I look at the Indyref, new and uncharted territory, a lot of them got it within 1-2%.
A while back Kippers said, we should ignore the pollsters that don't prompt for UKIP, because Survation did, and Survation had the highest scores for UKIP. I said it wasn't prompting but a fundamental methodology choice by Survation that saw them get the highest UKIP share.
So other pollsters started prompting, and lo and behold, no real change in UKIP's share.
No idea what you are talking about regarding a meme, I certainly have never tried to create one
I don't know who said we should ignore those who don't prompt for Ukip, it wasn't me, so is completely irrelevant to the point I was making
Do you only cash out for profit? Or sometimes when it's going wrong too to cut out a loss?
Mr. Indigo, not sure I'd see anything wrong with calling the frogs frogs, anymore than I'd be irked to be called a rosbif (which, I gather, is French for 'clearly superior Anglo-Saxon').
One of the reasons I learned French at school, was so I could mock les grenouilles in their own language.
They hate the Rosbification of their language.
I learnt French AND German (up to GCSE level, at any rate!)
It looks as if the German government are going to make Syriza walk barefoot to Canossa.
Following the Telegraph live blog, is looks like Greece went most of the way toward what was required, most of the correspondents thought it would be accepted, then Berlin blew it out of the water. Now it gets interesting, what happens if Madrid, Rome etc. accept it.
Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole population
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.
Too much read into too small a sample size... There have only been 7 elections in 30 years.
I know you think in a complete numptie with stats etc but I do analyse stats and bet on the results for a living, and am relatively successful at it. The fact is that this election is unlike others because if the SNP and Ukip effect as well as the lib dem drop. I could be wrong but I think there is a big chance the pollsters are wingjng it on Unchartered territory.
Put it this way, I bet in in running cricket a lot and if I used the 2007 model to trade today's fixtures I'd back the side to defend every time and lose overall. So models need to be flexible and change with time
I basically agree with this point of view about the next election.
UKIP don't seem to be trying in NE Cambridgeshire.
"Q.8 I would like to ask whether any of the main political parties have contacted you over the last few weeks - whether by delivering leaflets or newspapers, sending personally addressed letters, emailing, telephoning you at home or knocking on your door. Have you heard in any of these ways from...? Base: All respondents"
Boston: Con 7%, UKIP 11% Castle Point: Con 7%, UKIP 20% NE Cambs: Con 7%, UKIP 4% S. Basildon: Con 18%, UKIP 22% (Labour 18%)
In GE2010 the kipper had 919,000 people voting for them, if we take a 15% figure this time and a similar turn out, they are going to have around 4 million people voting for them.
Expecting those extra 3m+ voters to fall in the same places and proportions as the original 919k voters from GE2010, especially since most of the GE2010 intake were Tories, and more than half of those since are ex-Labour, and a lot of the rest are NOTA LDs, is a massive stretch I think. VI weighting being tested to destruction imo.
That's not how past-vote weighting works.
I know how it works. You ask people for their 2010 VI, and weight the sample so it reflects the actual GE2010 result in the same population.
Since the number of kippers has quadrupled, more or less, the vast majority of them voted for someone other than UKIP in GE2010, so weighting them to a GE2010 is a nonsense, it means you are dropping loads of kippers from the sample because there were a lot less kippers then.
Er, no it doesn't, because you weight respondents on their past vote, not their current vote.
A problem would occur if there is false recall, which might happen if new UKIP voters are so ashamed of their former vote that they tell the pollsters they voted UKIP in 2010 too.
I think you are thinking about the party ID weighting, which is a different kettle of fish entirely.
That's what my first paragraph said. ask people who they voted for in 2010, then weight the sample according to what the people in the survey population (ie the constituency) actually voted in GE2010.
Right, so how does that lead to underestimating UKIP support, given that present UKIP supporters are being weighted on the basis of their past vote in 2010 for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats?
Mr. Indigo, not sure I'd see anything wrong with calling the frogs frogs, anymore than I'd be irked to be called a rosbif (which, I gather, is French for 'clearly superior Anglo-Saxon').
One of the reasons I learned French at school, was so I could mock les grenouilles in their own language.
They hate the Rosbification of their language.
I learnt French AND German (up to GCSE level, at any rate!)
I learnt French, German and Latin at school, plus I can speak, inter alia, Urdu and Punjabi
Comments
Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
Up 6.5% after weeks of doing nothing....
Still doesn't dilute my initial observation.
UKIP may be the party that attracts most hostility *nationally* but among Labour voters in the seats surveyed (and in Clacton and Rochester) far more are willing to switch to UKIP than to the Conservatives.
UKIP may lag among younger voters nationally, but have no difficulty attracting support from younger voters in these constituencies (it's the over 65's who give the Conservatives the edge).
1.15:1 UKIP / CON Lord Ashcroft
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Boston-Skegness-Results.pdf
South Basildon does look like a fun place for open-minded types keen to have a nice choice of possible winners...
Boston & Skegness Con 11/8 -> 8/11
Castle Point: Con Evens -> 8/11
Basildon & SE Thurrock Con 4/7 -> 4/9
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2959280/Former-public-schoolboy-season-ticket-holder-one-fans-train-racist-football-thugs-claims-friend-Twitter.html
Since the number of kippers has quadrupled, more or less, the vast majority of them voted for someone other than UKIP in GE2010, so weighting them to a GE2010 is a nonsense, it means you are dropping loads of kippers from the sample because there were a lot less kippers then.
It will be even more odd with the Green vote, think of all those constituencies which have maybe 2-3 thousand Green voters now, but didn't even have a Green candidate last time around, weighting them down, or in any direction based on GE2010 would be very odd (and I am fairly sure pollsters don't do it).
That is the crux though, if you don't weight a sample because their was no Green candidate, why weight a sample quite heavily because their was a kipper candidate last time but almost no one had heard of him. By all means feel complacent, but those four million kipper voters have to go somewhere, they cant be weighted down in all constituencies.
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
Raw figures for all future polls please. OTOH it might be a good day to bet on UKIP in these seats as the odds have lengthened in response to these polls.
"Parsons, a former pupil at the £30,000 a year Millfield public school, works as an assistant at the financial services firm, the Business and Commercial Finance Club in Mayfair."
Just seeing an ex Millfield schoolboy drinking with Farage is surprising enough.... the one thing I can vouch for is that the ethos of Millfield uniquely among public schools was the antithesis of racist. No other school at the time-even state schools-had more ethnic minorities (though many were crown princes and the children of foreign dignitaries) .
And had anyone shown any signs of racism they would have been expelled (It was the socialists they disliked!)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11422472/PricewaterhouseCoopers-accused-of-tax-avoidance-on-industrial-scale-by-Labour-MP.html Would this be the same Labour whose leader, and prospective Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury told the House of Common only last week that that Labour Party had not accepted any donations from tax avoiders, not on his watch ?
I work in partnership with a Dutch guy and went to his place after my Ukip candidate interview on a Sunday morning in a suit... He was 'wtf are you doing in a suit' and after a lot if trying to change the subject I told him. As he has a middle eastern fiancée and an Owen jones book on the shelf I was worried this could be the end! But he was cool with it and is pretty anti establishment politics anyway
My best mates are voting Ukip but say don't know if people ask. Who can blame them when everyone from other parties says you must be racist/sexist/homophobic to do so?
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/pictured-with-nigel-farage-expublic-schoolboy-in-chelsea-fans-racism-storm-10056043.html
No point weighting against past voting patterns if the voters have decided to radically change their voting patterns more than at any time since the 1920s
A kingdom entrusted to a schoolboy's care"
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
Heart of stone...
The average Con to Lab swing according to the GB polls appears to be 4%, and in England a little higher at about 5%.
The Con to Lab swing in these 4 seats is 3.5%, 4%, 2.5% and 3% respectively. This means Labour is under-performing the national swing in these seats. This is good for Labour, because they are doing relatively worse in seats they are not going to win i.e. they are wasting fewer votes.
That means they must be doing better in other seats to make up for this relative under-performance. Now, it is eminently possible that Labour will outperform in their safe seats, leading to more inefficiency in their vote, but these polls do not provide any evidence for this.
So unless someone has invented a criminal offence of "being on an underground train with a racist", this guy appears to me to be getting the Christopher Jeffries treatment.
The French for "surprise" is "surprise"*. "Fromage" means "cheese".
*But they say it different.
As Mike said down below
"The big difference between Survation and Ashcroft marginals polling is that the former has no political weighting. It has generally shown higher UKIP shares"
Edit: I've just realised you're the chap who said last night, people think the second Lord Ashcroft question is about local council elections. I should have realised
I know you think in a complete numptie with stats etc but I do analyse stats and bet on the results for a living, and am relatively successful at it. The fact is that this election is unlike others because if the SNP and Ukip effect as well as the lib dem drop. I could be wrong but I think there is a big chance the pollsters are wingjng it on Unchartered territory.
Put it this way, I bet in in running cricket a lot and if I used the 2007 model to trade today's fixtures I'd back the side to defend every time and lose overall. So models need to be flexible and change with time
"So unless someone has invented a criminal offence of "being on an underground train with a racist", this guy appears to me to be getting the Christopher Jeffries treatment."
Possibly but the photo of him sharing a pint with Farage and being one of only four possible suspects in that carriage makes a pretty convincing prima facie case
"I wonder what he'd make (to take a purely hypothetical example) of a Tory MP wearing a Nazi uniform at a stag night."
He'd probably say 'Neil, nice to see you. How's Christine?'
Unless I’ve missed something, in which case I apologise in advance for the interpretation.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2957390/MARKET-REPORT-Rumours-757m-bid-Oberthur-private-equity-group-lift-La-Rue-shares.html
The prospect of £ notes being printed by a French owned company, could drive the Kippers into a frenzy.
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/deal/news/bob-frost-accused-of-racism-15560/
http://www.deal.gov.uk/Deal-TC/councillors-13588.aspx
A problem would occur if there is false recall, which might happen if new UKIP voters are so ashamed of their former vote that they tell the pollsters they voted UKIP in 2010 too.
I think you are thinking about the party ID weighting, which is a different kettle of fish entirely.
Lab lead 1.5%, the same as for the full ELBOW for last week.
Meanwhile, LDs are on 8.0% for the first time since October, with a 1.5% lead over the Greens (highest since Christmas).
The pollsters do and are adapting all the time, they constantly check and update.
I look at the Indyref, new and uncharted territory, a lot of them got it within 1-2%.
A while back Kippers said, we should ignore the pollsters that don't prompt for UKIP, because Survation did, and Survation had the highest scores for UKIP. I said it wasn't prompting but a fundamental methodology choice by Survation that saw them get the highest UKIP share.
So other pollsters started prompting, and lo and behold, no real change in UKIP's share.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11422438/Greece-faces-off-with-creditors-live.html
sh*t --------> fan
Furthermore if you look at the picture which does seem to show a black man on the platform confronting someone on the train you will see that the someone on the train is in bright blue. No one in the other picture is in bright blue. (Nor do they seem to be chanting, incidentally). Therefore the probability is that the carriage with Parsons in is not the carriage in which the incident occurred.
Perhaps you meant "a pretty convincing prima facie case of no case to answer".
I think you said something he had written/said was like Horst Wesel song, and someone said he wasn't that intelligent.
They hate the Rosbification of their language.
http://www.macclads.co.uk/hectic_house/lyrics/lyrics_alpha/germ.html
I said to one prominent Conservative that it read like a speech being given by Kerry Smith. The reply was "he's not that articulate."
Peter_the_Punter said:
» show previous quotes
There's certainly some comfort for the Tories in these polls.
They rather confirm and small easing off of support for UKIP. That eases things generally for the Conservatives in England.
Sporting Index's spread of 6-8 looks about right now, though of course that factors in high-side risk, so 4 or 5 seats currently looks like the correct projection.
-----------------------------------------------------------
I see that Mr Senior is getting excited - again. Remember the snapshot meme. I bet that 3 of these seats fall to UKIP at the actual GE. £100 evens sez so, to you and Mr Senior only.
I don't know who said we should ignore those who don't prompt for Ukip, it wasn't me, so is completely irrelevant to the point I was making
Do you only cash out for profit? Or sometimes when it's going wrong too to cut out a loss?
(up to GCSE level, at any rate!)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11422438/Greece-faces-off-with-creditors-live.html
The Fourth ReichEU?"Q.8 I would like to ask whether any of the main political parties have contacted you over the last few weeks - whether by delivering leaflets or newspapers, sending personally addressed letters, emailing, telephoning you at home or knocking on your door. Have you heard in any of these ways from...? Base: All respondents"
Boston: Con 7%, UKIP 11%
Castle Point: Con 7%, UKIP 20%
NE Cambs: Con 7%, UKIP 4%
S. Basildon: Con 18%, UKIP 22% (Labour 18%)
If you owe someone a lot of money and can't really pay it back, the last thing you do is go and call that person a c*nt.