Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
s.
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.
Too much read into too small a sample size... There have only been 7 elections in 30 years.
I know you think in a complete numptie with stats etc but I do analyse stats and bet on the results for a living, and am relatively successful at it. The fact is that this election is unlike others because if the SNP and Ukip effect as well as the lib dem drop. I could be wrong but I think there is a big chance the pollsters are wingjng it on Unchartered territory.
Put it this way, I bet in in running cricket a lot and if I used the 2007 model to trade today's fixtures I'd back the side to defend every time and lose overall. So models need to be flexible and change with time
Weren't you only the other day, trying to create a whole new meme, based on three occurrences.
The pollsters do and are adapting all the time, they constantly check and update.
I look at the Indyref, new and uncharted territory, a lot of them got it within 1-2%.
A while back Kippers said, we should ignore the pollsters that don't prompt for UKIP, because Survation did, and Survation had the highest scores for UKIP. I said it wasn't prompting but a fundamental methodology choice by Survation that saw them get the highest UKIP share.
So other pollsters started prompting, and lo and behold, no real change in UKIP's share.
No idea what you are talking about regarding a meme, I certainly have never tried to create one
I don't know who said we should ignore those who don't prompt for Ukip, it wasn't me, so is completely irrelevant to the point I was making
Do you only cash out for profit? Or sometimes when it's going wrong too to cut out a loss?
You were pushing a UKIP have never lost an election, when they have been favourites with the bookies.
It is relevant because it referred to the uncharted territory
I generally only cash out for a profit.
I've seen it before that the polls can't adapt to the new reality, I saw it with the Cleggasm, I saw it with the indyref, I have a lot of faith in quite a lot of pollsters. Not all, but enough.
It might be fairly basic to say let your winners run and cut the losers quickly. A lot of people do not follow those instructions. When you have stocks on a major exchange you have the option of trailing stops. A lot of brokerages do not allow trailing stops for the OTC or very low priced stocks. That tool was completely available for AXP. Be honest with yourself and ask yourself what you would do if you were up 20% and the stock had a 3% red day due to general market weakness. This is a factor extrinsic to the company, and was not large enough to trigger your stop. If you had other funds to trade the shorter-term plays like the ones that rise 10% before going back to where they were. If a 40% gainer, thus far, is playing out why not just let it run.
It always seems like newer traders tend to hold on to losses a bit too long and don’t let their winners run. The fear of losing profit and the hope of turning a loser around seems to rule. It is funny that with a psychology aimed toward saving your money the actions of a green trader is actually the worst. It would be better to swallow the losses quickly if you are going to cut your gains off fast too. And if you are going to hold onto your losers on hope you need to hold on to your winners in order to maximize them. The ideal situation is to cut your losers quickly, within reason, and let your winners run.
If you owe someone a lot of money and can't really pay it back, the last thing you do is go and call that person a c*nt.
If you owe the bank £1, the bank owns you, if you owe the bank £100bn. you own the bank.
It appears from today's revelations that Greece going pop will end up costing the German tax payer something like £280bn in crystallised "Target2" transaction, Greek bonds owned by the ECB, bilateral loans etc. This is possibly what is behind Varoufakis' confidence.
During the Sindy arguments Scotland discovered that it can have either the Pound or socialism - but not both.
Syriza is now discovering something similar. They seem to be in the deluded position that just because the Greek people voted for it they can keep the Euro / ECB support and still spend as much as they like.
I think what Germany is saying is essentially: 'Decide if you want the Euro and support for your banks or if you want to renege on reform and spending promises'.
I'm not sure how either side really backs down now. I very very much hope that warehouse is indeed full on newly printed Drachmas!
Mr. Indigo, not sure I'd see anything wrong with calling the frogs frogs, anymore than I'd be irked to be called a rosbif (which, I gather, is French for 'clearly superior Anglo-Saxon').
One of the reasons I learned French at school, was so I could mock les grenouilles in their own language.
They hate the Rosbification of their language.
I learnt French AND German (up to GCSE level, at any rate!)
I learnt French, German and Latin at school, plus I can speak, inter alia, Urdu and Punjabi
Latin is so 5th Century
I can also speak Malayalam (the language of Kerala, south India). I also taught myself how to read Greek and Russian.
Given Labour have no chance in these seats, might they not be secretly pleased to see they are shedding votes here. It suggests that they are more likely to be putting on votes where they really need them. Ed could well turn out to be English marginals viagra but will his majority extend to Scotland?
Interesting that Labour have the same level of campaign activity in South Basildon & East Thurrock as UKIP and the Conservatives. It may be a seat that they are targeting to try and come through the middle.
People in the seat would prefer a Conservative led government by 41% to 37%.
If these polls were from this time last year you lot would've laughed at them, its great progress for UKIP and shows just how far they've come in no time.
Almost as if the press has been reporting rumours of a bid for it.
or rumours of a very large rushed print job.....
One $50 million currency deal wouldn't push the price up that much. And I'd be surprised if you could rush a printing job on that scale through quickly. Never mind making up the plates, they have to make the paper first at the Bathford mill.
A bid rumour might be a convenient smoke-screen behind which to hide any other 'unusual activity". Some "unspecified European investors" behind a bid? All very vague.
There is general overcapacity in bank-note paper as DLR themselves point out - couldn't they just draw down stock?
And who says it would be a one-off job? There will be the New Pesata, the New Lira, the New Escudo....
It might be fairly basic to say let your winners run and cut the losers quickly. A lot of people do not follow those instructions. When you have stocks on a major exchange you have the option of trailing stops. A lot of brokerages do not allow trailing stops for the OTC or very low priced stocks. That tool was completely available for AXP. Be honest with yourself and ask yourself what you would do if you were up 20% and the stock had a 3% red day due to general market weakness. This is a factor extrinsic to the company, and was not large enough to trigger your stop. If you had other funds to trade the shorter-term plays like the ones that rise 10% before going back to where they were. If a 40% gainer, thus far, is playing out why not just let it run.
It always seems like newer traders tend to hold on to losses a bit too long and don’t let their winners run. The fear of losing profit and the hope of turning a loser around seems to rule. It is funny that with a psychology aimed toward saving your money the actions of a green trader is actually the worst. It would be better to swallow the losses quickly if you are going to cut your gains off fast too. And if you are going to hold onto your losers on hope you need to hold on to your winners in order to maximize them. The ideal situation is to cut your losers quickly, within reason, and let your winners run.
Sometimes it also to with what the cash out amount is. If it is the square root of bugger all, there's no point in cashing out, but occasionally there's a fightback, I remember when Man U were 3 nil down just after half time, no point cashing out then to minimise your losses, but they pulled it back to 3 all with about 5 mins to go.
That is sadly a rarity.
The sport I generally cash out the most in is football, because looking at the results, for example at the world cup, backed the outsider, then cashed out when they scored, because over a long term period, the favourite ends up coming back and winning.
I've looked at applying that to Rugby in the past, but it doesn't seem to have the same trend as football. Generally the favourite scores the first try.
A Tory Prime Minister (an Eton educated Tory PM no less), uniting Europe to give the French a thrashing.
The EU should be, ah, "invited" into the Commonwealth, by virtue of it having English as one of its Official Languages. Also, studies show that 51% of EU citizens have some knowledge of English.
If you owe the bank £1, the bank owns you, if you owe the bank £100bn. you own the bank.
True but if your only solution to the problem means you will only ever owe the bank more, the bank has a decision to make.
Maybe the Germans have decided to cut the position now.
I think they probably have, but then I don't think there was any other choice, it was just a question of timing.
The Greek economy isn't recovering, its getting worse, GDP is falling faster then external debt, so its Debt/GDP is going through the roof, and all the money it is borrowing is being used to pay the interest on money borrowed from French and German banks, none of it is making their economy any better, hence the Greek people have decided its futile making things worse with no end in sight.
If you owe someone a lot of money and can't really pay it back, the last thing you do is go and call that person a c*nt.
Siding with the Fourth Reich are we?
The problem Germany has is that if the Greeks do stick two fingers up at Germany and refuse to pay them there is not a lot the Germans can do, the other southern European countries will follow suit.
Unfortunately for Germany the traditional way of punishing a country that did that is not available to them anymore, nor do they have the will to take such action. So Germany will get shafted
Given Labour have no chance in these seats, might they not be secretly pleased to see they are shedding votes here. It suggests that they are more likely to be putting on votes where they really need them. Ed could well turn out to be English marginals viagra but will his majority extend to Scotland?
Should Labour be secretly pleased at shedding votes in no chance seats in Scotland too? They seem to have much to be secretly pleased about north of the border....
Given Labour have no chance in these seats, might they not be secretly pleased to see they are shedding votes here. It suggests that they are more likely to be putting on votes where they really need them. Ed could well turn out to be English marginals viagra but will his majority extend to Scotland?
Labour held Basildon South and East Thurrock prior to 2010, but in general, Labour probably would want to put on its votes elsewhere.
If you owe someone a lot of money and can't really pay it back, the last thing you do is go and call that person a c*nt.
Siding with the Fourth Reich are we?
The problem Germany has is that if the Greeks do stick two fingers up at Germany and refuse to pay them there is not a lot the Germans can do, the other southern European countries will follow suit.
Unfortunately for Germany the traditional way of punishing a country that did that is not available to them anymore, nor do they have the will to take such action. So Germany will get shafted
Not much room for misunderstanding in the Bilt headline
If you owe someone a lot of money and can't really pay it back, the last thing you do is go and call that person a c*nt.
Siding with the Fourth Reich are we?
The problem Germany has is that if the Greeks do stick two fingers up at Germany and refuse to pay them there is not a lot the Germans can do, the other southern European countries will follow suit.
Unfortunately for Germany the traditional way of punishing a country that did that is not available to them anymore, nor do they have the will to take such action. So Germany will get shafted
You'd be right if Greece was contemplatng really giving 'em the finger and deliberately defaulting and adopting a new Drachma. But it's not. It's in the infantile position of seeking to dictate terms to the ECB / Germany but whilst retaining the Euro and ELA support for the Greek banking system. Basically they are like the SNP - they want to keep spending but for the money to be coming from someone else. That's what Germany is not having any of. Freedom means leaving the shared currency and then balancing books in both cases. Both SNP and Syriza are in the intellectually bankrupt 'having cake and eating it' camp.
If you owe someone a lot of money and can't really pay it back, the last thing you do is go and call that person a c*nt.
Siding with the Fourth Reich are we?
The problem Germany has is that if the Greeks do stick two fingers up at Germany and refuse to pay them there is not a lot the Germans can do, the other southern European countries will follow suit.
Unfortunately for Germany the traditional way of punishing a country that did that is not available to them anymore, nor do they have the will to take such action. So Germany will get shafted
You'd be right if Greece was contemplatng really giving 'em the finger and deliberately defaulting and adopting a new Drachma. But it's not. It's in the infantile position of seeking to dictate terms to the ECB / Germany but whilst retaining the Euro and ELA support for the Greek banking system. Basically they are like the SNP - they want to keep spending but for the money to be coming from someone else. That's what Germany is not having any of. Freedom means leaving the shared currency and then balancing books in both cases. Both SNP and Syriza are in the intellectually bankrupt 'having cake and eating it' camp.
That's a little unfair, in their latest offering to German the only real difference between what was asked for, and what was offered was 3% primary surplus this year, not the 4.5% demanded by the troika, to leave them some money for social programs (and one assumes, buying off disappointed voters), but they were still told to piss off, that is the act of a German determined to let Greece go imo.
Dijsselbloem clearly agreed to the Varoufakis letter, or why call EG? Greeks feeling “set up” as Germans reject (1/2)... — Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) February 19, 2015
2/2) and @Varoufakis climbdown on wording was supposed to be first phase of two part compromise, with Eurogroup reciprocating. — Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) February 19, 2015
Big shock. The primary surplus of 3% for this year is the sticking point, Germany wants 4.5% as previously agreed, Tsipras needs the 3% surplus to fund some of the post election giveaways. To fulfil all of the promises the original 1.5% proposal would be required.
If you owe the bank £1, the bank owns you, if you owe the bank £100bn. you own the bank.
True but if your only solution to the problem means you will only ever owe the bank more, the bank has a decision to make.
Maybe the Germans have decided to cut the position now.
I think they probably have, but then I don't think there was any other choice, it was just a question of timing.
The Greek economy isn't recovering, its getting worse, GDP is falling faster then external debt, so its Debt/GDP is going through the roof, and all the money it is borrowing is being used to pay the interest on money borrowed from French and German banks, none of it is making their economy any better, hence the Greek people have decided its futile making things worse with no end in sight.
Do you make these incorrect statements in the hope that no one will bother to do a basic minutes check to find out the actual facts Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% . Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 2014
If I were the Germans, I'd let the Greeks feel real pain. It's cheaper in the long run to bail out EC banks in the event of a Greek default than to pour money into a bottomless pit of ungrateful barstewards .
If you owe the bank £1, the bank owns you, if you owe the bank £100bn. you own the bank.
True but if your only solution to the problem means you will only ever owe the bank more, the bank has a decision to make.
Maybe the Germans have decided to cut the position now.
I think they probably have, but then I don't think there was any other choice, it was just a question of timing.
The Greek economy isn't recovering, its getting worse, GDP is falling faster then external debt, so its Debt/GDP is going through the roof, and all the money it is borrowing is being used to pay the interest on money borrowed from French and German banks, none of it is making their economy any better, hence the Greek people have decided its futile making things worse with no end in sight.
Do you make these incorrect statements in the hope that no one will bother to do a basic minutes check to find out the actual facts Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% . Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 2014
It has been pointed out on another site that "others" are on 6% in Castle Point, compared to 1% in the other seats. This could be for people who think Spink is standing again or for the Canvey Island Independents.
Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% . Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 2014
Is that somehow supposed to be an indictment of the coalition?!
Could be bad for Sir Kevin politically speaking if he gets involved in this. I thought he'd swerved the worst of it but must be good for UKIP in Rother Valley.
Have the Germans just thrown Greece under the bus?
According to the BBC there may now be an almighty fight between Germany and the rest of the EU over their rejection of Greek proposals. I myself think that Tsipras has a real fight on his hands to keep Greece in the Euro; that Syriza will split; that Merkel must now prove her mettle after suffering a massive electoral defeat last week in Germany.
Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% . Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 2014
Is that somehow supposed to be an indictment of the coalition?!
On those figures the Greek economy must be in better shape than the UK economy. Genius George screws it up again! Or summink.
If you owe the bank £1, the bank owns you, if you owe the bank £100bn. you own the bank.
True but if your only solution to the problem means you will only ever owe the bank more, the bank has a decision to make.
Maybe the Germans have decided to cut the position now.
I think they probably have, but then I don't think there was any other choice, it was just a question of timing.
The Greek economy isn't recovering, its getting worse, GDP is falling faster then external debt, so its Debt/GDP is going through the roof, and all the money it is borrowing is being used to pay the interest on money borrowed from French and German banks, none of it is making their economy any better, hence the Greek people have decided its futile making things worse with no end in sight.
Do you make these incorrect statements in the hope that no one will bother to do a basic minutes check to find out the actual facts Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% . Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 2014
And did you notice how fast its Debt is rising ?
I simply pointed out that your statement that Greece GDP was falling was factually incorrect . You should explain why you feel the need to post such porkies .
It has been pointed out on another site that "others" are on 6% in Castle Point, compared to 1% in the other seats. This could be for people who think Spink is standing again or for the Canvey Island Independents.
There’s an English Democrat apparently going to stand. I very much doubt that the CIIP will put up a candidate; as someone pointed out upthread they arose out a very local dispute which significantly affected the Labour Party. I’ve not heard that Spink intends to stand again.
Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% . Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 2014
Is that somehow supposed to be an indictment of the coalition?!
Have the Germans just thrown Greece under the bus?
The Greek bus is hanging over cliff. Tsipras is saying "Hang on a minute, lads. I've got a great idea".
Brilliant.
"There are a quarter of a million Germans in Greece and they'll be made to suffer. Every restaurant, cafe, ice-cream parlour, gambling den and nightclub in Athens, Salonika and Crete will be smashed."
thought for the day re being expelled for being racist at Millfield. If this 21 year old is found to be one of those responsible for kicking the black man off the train there is no doubt his career will be blighted for what amounts to a minor infringement . He will probably be forever tarred. At Millfield two boys were expelled for improper conduct with each other. One went on to have a successful career in public life and is reasonably well known. If this part of his past was now known I'm sure he would get nothing but sympathy.
Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% . Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 2014
Is that somehow supposed to be an indictment of the coalition?!
Its a typical Senior cherry picked statistic. Yes they had a couple of good quarters at the end of last year, and what was immediately before that ?
−0.2% in 2008, −3.1% in 2009, −4.9% in 2010, −7.1% in 2011, −7.0% in 2012 and −3.9% in 2013
Then lets look at what has happened to the REAL GDP over the last few years
242.1 in 2008 237.4 in 2009 226.2 in 2010 207.8 in 2011 194.2 in 2012 182.4 in 2013
and their debt
264.6 in 2008 301.0 in 2009 330.3 in 2010 356.0 in 2011 304.7 in 2012 319.1 in 2013
Debt roaring up, GDP falling like a rock, nothing to see here, move along please
Meanwhile on Guido - PWC donated £400k to Labour in the last quarter.
Surely they will give that back now?
I mean they wouldn't want to be seen as hypocrites would they.......
Probably a gift in staff time. How can they be given back? Withdraw labour? Send a bill to them? Labour to pay PWC?
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 53m 53 minutes ago To be fair to Labour, knowing PWC's rates £386,605 probably equates to one staffer doing photocopying for a couple of hours twice a week.
These polls if true are yet more compelling evidence for the increased efficiency of the Tory vote in 2015 compared to 2010. Winning seats by smallish margins is Labour's trick and the Tories are now managing it. If the Tories and Labour poll anything like 2010 they will gain seats.
Of course I still expect Labour to poll better than 2010, at least in England.
Could be bad for Sir Kevin politically speaking if he gets involved in this. I thought he'd swerved the worst of it but must be good for UKIP in Rother Valley.
Interesting, Pulpstar, but the article would be more helpful if it were written better.
There is obviously some potential for UKIP to pick up a seat or two in the area, but they would need some tactical voting from Conservatives. They may get some, but it would be contrary to previous form if they did so in enough numbers to shift those Lab majorities.
On the question of possible tactical voting by Labour supporters in seats which appear to be Con/UKIP battles, we have to be careful not to assume that the Labour supporters form a monolithic block who are likely to behave in a uniform way. At the risk of over-simplifying, we can consider two types of Labour voter:
- Traditional WWC Labour voters, more likely to be in socio-economic classes C1/C2 or DE, worried about immigration, possibly working in the public sector in lowish-paid jobs, typically Sun or Mirror readers. These are voters potentially likely to be tempted by UKIP, and , even if they'd prefer a Labour MPS, might therefore be susceptible to tactical voting for the UKIP candidate.
- Liberal-left voters, academics, more highly-paid public sector workers, Guardian or Indy readers, very concerned about racisim and very suspicious that Farage's anti-immigration stance is racist. Such voters might be tempted, if Labour couldn't win in their seat, to hold their noses and vote Tory as the lesser of two evils.
Whether one of these effects happens will depend on the seat and on the UKIP candidate - for example, in Newark, there was definitely anti-UKIP tactical voting, but in Rochester & Strood there may have been anti-Tory tactical voting. Indeed you might get both effects simultaneously in a given seat.
UKIP are at 32% in these seats. Prior to reallocation of don't knows, they're on 34%. Droves of Labour voters from 2010 seem to be switching to them. I don't think that's fading.
If true thats bad news for ukip? if they cant get over the line in their best seats their vote share's gonna be v low elsewhere by my reckoning?
This election's looking a 2-horse race: Cons v Lab. Scotland's an interesting sideshow that only comes into play if Lab are just south of an outright maj.
2 party politics returns to Britain?
[Irony is, the 2 parties may collect less vote share than ever before. It's just that the 'minor' parties aren't going to scoop seats if this goes on. Spread too thinly. Thats our voting system for you.]
Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% . Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 2014
Is that somehow supposed to be an indictment of the coalition?!
Its a typical Senior cherry picked statistic. Yes they had a couple of good quarters at the end of last year, and what was immediately before that ?
−0.2% in 2008, −3.1% in 2009, −4.9% in 2010, −7.1% in 2011, −7.0% in 2012 and −3.9% in 2013
Then lets look at what has happened to the REAL GDP over the last few years
242.1 in 2008 237.4 in 2009 226.2 in 2010 207.8 in 2011 194.2 in 2012 182.4 in 2013
and their debt
264.6 in 2008 301.0 in 2009 330.3 in 2010 356.0 in 2011 304.7 in 2012 319.1 in 2013
Debt roaring up, GDP falling like a rock, nothing to see here, move along please
You made a false statement that Greece GDP was falling and instead of explaining why you want to post such falsities stop attacking the person who has caught you out , fezz up and explain your reasons . Incidently you did not post the Greek debt figures for 2014 . Can that be because they are actually marginally down on 2013 and would not sit well with your other claims
Keep defending him. What a joker you are. Don't like it up 'em thats you.
The only joker round here is you. I understand that Cameron has been photographed in the past shaking hands with Putin. Which must of course mean he supports his attempted annexation of Eastern Ukraine.
That is the level of your argument which is why most sensible people on here rightly consider you a bit of a tosser.
Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
s.
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.
Too much read into too small a sample size... There have only been 7 elections in 30 years.
I know you think in a complete numptie with stats etc but I do analyse stats and bet on the results for a living, and am relatively successful at it. The fact is that this election is unlike others because if the SNP and Ukip effect as well as the lib dem drop. I could be wrong but I think there is a big chance the pollsters are wingjng it on Unchartered territory.
Put it this way, I bet in in running cricket a lot and if I used the 2007 model to trade today's fixtures I'd back the side to defend every time and lose overall. So models need to be flexible and change with time
Weren't you only the other day, trying to create a whole new meme, based on three occurrences.
The pollsters do and are adapting all the time, they constantly check and update.
I look at the Indyref, new and uncharted territory, a lot of them got it within 1-2%.
A while back Kippers said, we should ignore the pollsters that don't prompt for UKIP, because Survation did, and Survation had the highest scores for UKIP. I said it wasn't prompting but a fundamental methodology choice by Survation that saw them get the highest UKIP share.
So other pollsters started prompting, and lo and behold, no real change in UKIP's share.
No idea what you are talking about regarding a meme, I certainly have never tried to create one
I don't know who said we should ignore those who don't prompt for Ukip, it wasn't me, so is completely irrelevant to the point I was making
Do you only cash out for profit? Or sometimes when it's going wrong too to cut out a loss?
You were pushing a UKIP have never lost an election, when they have been favourites with the bookies.
It is relevant because it referred to the uncharted territory
I generally only cash out for a profit.
I've seen it before that the polls can't adapt to the new reality, I saw it with the Cleggasm, I saw it with the indyref, I have a lot of faith in quite a lot of pollsters. Not all, but enough.
Oh yeah haha I was joking I thought that was obvious?!
UKIP are at 32% in these seats. Prior to reallocation of don't knows, they're on 34%. Droves of Labour voters from 2010 seem to be switching to them. I don't think that's fading.
If true thats bad news for ukip? if they cant get over the line in their best seats their vote share's gonna be v low elsewhere by my reckoning?
This election's looking a 2-horse race: Cons v Lab. Scotland's an interesting sideshow that only comes into play if Lab are just south of an outright maj.
2 party politics returns to Britain?
[Irony is, the 2 parties may collect less vote share than ever before. It's just that the 'minor' parties aren't going to scoop seats if this goes on. Spread too thinly. Thats our voting system for you.]
Well, "just south" here may mean 20 or 30 seats. Unless there's a significant overall swing one way or the other before the election, or the polls perform badly, there's a good chance that number of seats might matter.
Honestly my feeling is that people aren't doing enough to take into account the uncertainty added by the debates, especially with them so close to the election. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Miliband v Cameron led to a 2% bump one way or the other on polling day.
These polls if true are yet more compelling evidence for the increased efficiency of the Tory vote in 2015 compared to 2010. Winning seats by smallish margins is Labour's trick and the Tories are now managing it. If the Tories and Labour poll anything like 2010 they will gain seats.
Of course I still expect Labour to poll better than 2010, at least in England.
Hmm. The key is not to simply be more efficient but to be more efficient than Labour. The Tory>Lab swing in these seats is lower than the national average. That means it must be higher elsewhere.
How can both Lab and Tory be more voter efficient? Because Ukip is going to pile up a ton of votes and virtually no MPs. Newsnight reckoned last night that the Tories could get a majority with 38% of the vote now. For Labour it was 36%. If it weren't for the dastardly SNP perhaps it would be 33%.
Mr. Bear, there were 'likes', long ago. I think there was a corresponding 'dislike', and there was a bit of tetchiness, alas. That was, it must be said, under a different system of commenting, however.
So, odds on a Greek exit? Or will the eurozone force the Germans out instead?
thought for the day re being expelled for being racist at Millfield. If this 21 year old is found to be one of those responsible for kicking the black man off the train there is no doubt his career will be blighted for what amounts to a minor infringement . He will probably be forever tarred. At Millfield two boys were expelled for improper conduct with each other. One went on to have a successful career in public life and is reasonably well known. If this part of his past was now known I'm sure he would get nothing but sympathy.
Kicking a black man off a train is a "minor infringement?" Gosh. Do you think Mandela would agree?
The weighting adjustments are interesting. In three of the four polls more people chose UKIP than any other party. The odd one out was NE Cambridgeshire where both weighted and unweighted the Tories are ahead.
In the poll for Boston the weightings boosted the Tory figure by 4 points at the expense of UKIP whose figures were shrunk by four points. UKIP had a 5 point advantage in the raw figures.
In the Castlepoint poll the Tories were boosted by 3 and UKIPs figure shrank by two by the weightings. UKIP had a 3 point advantage in the raw figures
In the Basildon poll UKIP had a marginal lead by a couple of people in the raw figures with the weightings boosting the Tories by three points and shrinking UKIPs share by 2 points.
The situation in those seats would seem to rest on how much in these uniquely interesting times the weighting presumptions from previous elections still apply.....
On the question of possible tactical voting by Labour supporters in seats which appear to be Con/UKIP battles, we have to be careful not to assume that the Labour supporters form a monolithic block who are likely to behave in a uniform way. At the risk of over-simplifying, we can consider two types of Labour voter:
- Traditional WWC Labour voters, more likely to be in socio-economic classes C1/C2 or DE, worried about immigration, possibly working in the public sector in lowish-paid jobs, typically Sun or Mirror readers. These are voters potentially likely to be tempted by UKIP, and , even if they'd prefer a Labour MPS, might therefore be susceptible to tactical voting for the UKIP candidate.
- Liberal-left voters, academics, more highly-paid public sector workers, Guardian or Indy readers, very concerned about racisim and very suspicious that Farage's anti-immigration stance is racist. Such voters might be tempted, if Labour couldn't win in their seat, to hold their noses and vote Tory as the lesser of two evils.
Whether one of these effects happens will depend on the seat and on the UKIP candidate - for example, in Newark, there was definitely anti-UKIP tactical voting, but in Rochester & Strood there may have been anti-Tory tactical voting. Indeed you might get both effects simultaneously in a given seat.
What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
These polls if true are yet more compelling evidence for the increased efficiency of the Tory vote in 2015 compared to 2010. Winning seats by smallish margins is Labour's trick and the Tories are now managing it. If the Tories and Labour poll anything like 2010 they will gain seats.
Of course I still expect Labour to poll better than 2010, at least in England.
Hmm. The key is not to simply be more efficient but to be more efficient than Labour. The Tory>Lab swing in these seats is lower than the national average. That means it must be higher elsewhere.
How can both Lab and Tory be more voter efficient? Because Ukip is going to pile up a ton of votes and virtually no MPs. Newsnight reckoned last night that the Tories could get a majority with 38% of the vote now. For Labour it was 36%. If it weren't for the dastardly SNP perhaps it would be 33%.
Every seat Labour wins in one-party Liverpool or Manchester or Newcastle is a missed Gloucester or Worcester or Chester...
thought for the day re being expelled for being racist at Millfield. If this 21 year old is found to be one of those responsible for kicking the black man off the train there is no doubt his career will be blighted for what amounts to a minor infringement . He will probably be forever tarred. At Millfield two boys were expelled for improper conduct with each other. One went on to have a successful career in public life and is reasonably well known. If this part of his past was now known I'm sure he would get nothing but sympathy.
Kicking a black man off a train is a "minor infringement?" Gosh. Do you think Mandela would agree?
Tories worth a punt in Great Yarmouth (7/4) off the back of these polls?
Strange to me that you think these polls are bad for Ukip. They are in front on unweighted numbers in seats that have never been polled by this pollster before
Off topic - why is the word "coalition" constantly banded about by all and sundry including in the print and broadcast media. Just because we've had one doesn't mean we're due another "arrangement" would be a far better word.
On the question of possible tactical voting by Labour supporters in seats which appear to be Con/UKIP battles, we have to be careful not to assume that the Labour supporters form a monolithic block who are likely to behave in a uniform way. At the risk of over-simplifying, we can consider two types of Labour voter:
- Traditional WWC Labour voters, more likely to be in socio-economic classes C1/C2 or DE, worried about immigration, possibly working in the public sector in lowish-paid jobs, typically Sun or Mirror readers. These are voters potentially likely to be tempted by UKIP, and , even if they'd prefer a Labour MPS, might therefore be susceptible to tactical voting for the UKIP candidate.
- Liberal-left voters, academics, more highly-paid public sector workers, Guardian or Indy readers, very concerned about racisim and very suspicious that Farage's anti-immigration stance is racist. Such voters might be tempted, if Labour couldn't win in their seat, to hold their noses and vote Tory as the lesser of two evils.
Whether one of these effects happens will depend on the seat and on the UKIP candidate - for example, in Newark, there was definitely anti-UKIP tactical voting, but in Rochester & Strood there may have been anti-Tory tactical voting. Indeed you might get both effects simultaneously in a given seat.
What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
One of the features of the seats where UKIP have done well is that the Traditional WWC Labour voters would invariably heavily outnumber any urban liberal types
What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
Probably mainly the first category, but Thurrock looks as though it might have a reasonable number of the second.
You can't have ever been to Thurrock!!
It's at the bottom or my road, one if the main reasons I backed Ukip at 16/1 in Thurrock last year was because the demographic is v similar to that of goodhays in havering which Ukip won in the council elections... Believe me it is not a lefty liberal place, I can't think of anywhere less so
Comments
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/02/19/mp-suing-for-libel-says-he-knew-about-rotherham-abuse-despite-having-daughter-and-brother-on-local-council/
It is relevant because it referred to the uncharted territory
I generally only cash out for a profit.
I've seen it before that the polls can't adapt to the new reality, I saw it with the Cleggasm, I saw it with the indyref, I have a lot of faith in quite a lot of pollsters. Not all, but enough.
IE, he who pays the piper calls the tune.
And we are paying the piper
A Tory Prime Minister (an Eton educated Tory PM no less), uniting Europe to give the French a thrashing.
You are a cunning linguist
It might be fairly basic to say let your winners run and cut the losers quickly. A lot of people do not follow those instructions. When you have stocks on a major exchange you have the option of trailing stops. A lot of brokerages do not allow trailing stops for the OTC or very low priced stocks. That tool was completely available for AXP. Be honest with yourself and ask yourself what you would do if you were up 20% and the stock had a 3% red day due to general market weakness. This is a factor extrinsic to the company, and was not large enough to trigger your stop. If you had other funds to trade the shorter-term plays like the ones that rise 10% before going back to where they were. If a 40% gainer, thus far, is playing out why not just let it run.
It always seems like newer traders tend to hold on to losses a bit too long and don’t let their winners run. The fear of losing profit and the hope of turning a loser around seems to rule. It is funny that with a psychology aimed toward saving your money the actions of a green trader is actually the worst. It would be better to swallow the losses quickly if you are going to cut your gains off fast too. And if you are going to hold onto your losers on hope you need to hold on to your winners in order to maximize them. The ideal situation is to cut your losers quickly, within reason, and let your winners run.
It appears from today's revelations that Greece going pop will end up costing the German tax payer something like £280bn in crystallised "Target2" transaction, Greek bonds owned by the ECB, bilateral loans etc. This is possibly what is behind Varoufakis' confidence.
Syriza is now discovering something similar. They seem to be in the deluded position that just because the Greek people voted for it they can keep the Euro / ECB support and still spend as much as they like.
I think what Germany is saying is essentially: 'Decide if you want the Euro and support for your banks or if you want to renege on reform and spending promises'.
I'm not sure how either side really backs down now. I very very much hope that warehouse is indeed full on newly printed Drachmas!
I can also speak Malayalam (the language of Kerala, south India). I also taught myself how to read Greek and Russian.
True but if your only solution to the problem means you will only ever owe the bank more, the bank has a decision to make.
Maybe the Germans have decided to cut the position now.
People in the seat would prefer a Conservative led government by 41% to 37%.
There is general overcapacity in bank-note paper as DLR themselves point out - couldn't they just draw down stock?
And who says it would be a one-off job? There will be the New Pesata, the New Lira, the New Escudo....
That is sadly a rarity.
The sport I generally cash out the most in is football, because looking at the results, for example at the world cup, backed the outsider, then cashed out when they scored, because over a long term period, the favourite ends up coming back and winning.
I've looked at applying that to Rugby in the past, but it doesn't seem to have the same trend as football. Generally the favourite scores the first try.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_the_European_Union
The Greek economy isn't recovering, its getting worse, GDP is falling faster then external debt, so its Debt/GDP is going through the roof, and all the money it is borrowing is being used to pay the interest on money borrowed from French and German banks, none of it is making their economy any better, hence the Greek people have decided its futile making things worse with no end in sight.
Unfortunately for Germany the traditional way of punishing a country that did that is not available to them anymore, nor do they have the will to take such action. So Germany will get shafted
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Agreement_on_German_External_Debts
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-NW2YGIUAAGIVA.jpg
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31532755
Germany rejects Greek loan request as "not substantial"
— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) February 19, 2015
2/2) and @Varoufakis climbdown on wording was supposed to be first phase of two part compromise, with Eurogroup reciprocating.
— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) February 19, 2015
Big shock. The primary surplus of 3% for this year is the sticking point, Germany wants 4.5% as previously agreed, Tsipras needs the 3% surplus to fund some of the post election giveaways. To fulfil all of the promises the original 1.5% proposal would be required.
Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% .
Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 2014
The German word for "Debt" is Schuld, the same word they use for "Guilt".
http://www.fit.de/sunil/produkte/sunil-aktiv/
Cameron says Russia will face serious economic and financial consequences if it destabilises Ukraine. It will be forced to join the EU.
I mean they wouldn't want to be seen as hypocrites would they.......
The Greek Government if doing its best to oblige.
I’ve not heard that Spink intends to stand again.
I'm sure the Germans would find an extremely powerful ally in tory England if only they had the sense.
When is Berlin going to realise we should be running this together and they should be imposing the reforms we want in return for our support and cash.
−0.2% in 2008, −3.1% in 2009, −4.9% in 2010, −7.1% in 2011, −7.0% in 2012 and −3.9% in 2013
Then lets look at what has happened to the REAL GDP over the last few years
242.1 in 2008
237.4 in 2009
226.2 in 2010
207.8 in 2011
194.2 in 2012
182.4 in 2013
and their debt
264.6 in 2008
301.0 in 2009
330.3 in 2010
356.0 in 2011
304.7 in 2012
319.1 in 2013
Debt roaring up, GDP falling like a rock, nothing to see here, move along please
Surely loans only make sense on the basis of the ACTUAL issue being liquidity ?
To be fair to Labour, knowing PWC's rates £386,605 probably equates to one staffer doing photocopying for a couple of hours twice a week.
How did he get his knighthood?
Of course I still expect Labour to poll better than 2010, at least in England.
There is obviously some potential for UKIP to pick up a seat or two in the area, but they would need some tactical voting from Conservatives. They may get some, but it would be contrary to previous form if they did so in enough numbers to shift those Lab majorities.
- Traditional WWC Labour voters, more likely to be in socio-economic classes C1/C2 or DE, worried about immigration, possibly working in the public sector in lowish-paid jobs, typically Sun or Mirror readers. These are voters potentially likely to be tempted by UKIP, and , even if they'd prefer a Labour MPS, might therefore be susceptible to tactical voting for the UKIP candidate.
- Liberal-left voters, academics, more highly-paid public sector workers, Guardian or Indy readers, very concerned about racisim and very suspicious that Farage's anti-immigration stance is racist. Such voters might be tempted, if Labour couldn't win in their seat, to hold their noses and vote Tory as the lesser of two evils.
Whether one of these effects happens will depend on the seat and on the UKIP candidate - for example, in Newark, there was definitely anti-UKIP tactical voting, but in Rochester & Strood there may have been anti-Tory tactical voting. Indeed you might get both effects simultaneously in a given seat.
Why didn't he just link Hannan's article in the Mail today, that is where that text comes from
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2959339/I-m-increasingly-certain-Greece-leave-euro-best-Britain-says-MEP-DANIEL-HANNAN.html
Ed says in the HoC he has not taken a penny from any "dodgy" donors.
Today Labour have said the PwC donation is fine so they are not giving it back.
Awesome
This election's looking a 2-horse race: Cons v Lab. Scotland's an interesting sideshow that only comes into play if Lab are just south of an outright maj.
2 party politics returns to Britain?
[Irony is, the 2 parties may collect less vote share than ever before. It's just that the 'minor' parties aren't going to scoop seats if this goes on. Spread too thinly. Thats our voting system for you.]
Incidently you did not post the Greek debt figures for 2014 . Can that be because they are actually marginally down on 2013 and would not sit well with your other claims
UKIP's new major donor is the son of Daily Telegraph owner Sir Frederick Barclay: http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/property-developer-son-of-daily-telegraphs-billionaire-owner …
I bet thats got his father and the DT foaming at the mouth.
That is the level of your argument which is why most sensible people on here rightly consider you a bit of a tosser.
Why no like buttons on this site? Not poss?
And adopt the pound.
Honestly my feeling is that people aren't doing enough to take into account the uncertainty added by the debates, especially with them so close to the election. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Miliband v Cameron led to a 2% bump one way or the other on polling day.
How can both Lab and Tory be more voter efficient? Because Ukip is going to pile up a ton of votes and virtually no MPs. Newsnight reckoned last night that the Tories could get a majority with 38% of the vote now. For Labour it was 36%. If it weren't for the dastardly SNP perhaps it would be 33%.
So, odds on a Greek exit? Or will the eurozone force the Germans out instead?
In the poll for Boston the weightings boosted the Tory figure by 4 points at the expense of UKIP whose figures were shrunk by four points. UKIP had a 5 point advantage in the raw figures.
In the Castlepoint poll the Tories were boosted by 3 and UKIPs figure shrank by two by the weightings. UKIP had a 3 point advantage in the raw figures
In the Basildon poll UKIP had a marginal lead by a couple of people in the raw figures with the weightings boosting the Tories by three points and shrinking UKIPs share by 2 points.
The situation in those seats would seem to rest on how much in these uniquely interesting times the weighting presumptions from previous elections still apply.....
In 1960's Alabama maybe....
Disagree.
I'm sure Merkel knows exactly what powers Cameron needs to get back the UKIP voters he needs for power.
He's told her often enough.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31532755
Headline, from Germany, is telling. It asks whether the Greeks or Germans or more dangerous for us [the Germans].
Pop-corn time. (Is it appropriate to eat pop-corn whilst watching a car wreck?)
It's at the bottom or my road, one if the main reasons I backed Ukip at 16/1 in Thurrock last year was because the demographic is v similar to that of goodhays in havering which Ukip won in the council elections... Believe me it is not a lefty liberal place, I can't think of anywhere less so
Grays is somewhere in the middle.