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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds it’s not going

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited February 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds it’s not going to be as easy for UKIP to take CON seats as was thought

1. Boston & Skegness: pic.twitter.com/qPH9zxPmZL

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Who said it was going to be easy?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    I thought Boston and Skegness was a nailed-on UKIP gain as the Tories had left the field of battle?

    Plenty of bar-chart material there for the anti-UKIP vote to be harvested.

    Sticking with Carswell being the lone UKIP MP in May. As per my entry yesterday.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Con-UKIP-VI-1024x141.jpg

    Con hold 4 vs UKIP.

    So thats at least 4 tory seats which were chimpanzee in a blue rosette secure that are now wafer thin marginals that need large amounts of resources deployed to that will mean less campaigning elsewhere.

    And quite feasible in all of them for UKIP to win the seat.
    As polling day approaches the Tories will shore up some of their vote, so some of the direct swing between Con/UKIP will go backwards.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    A handful of seats at best for UKIP and the price will be Ed Miliband bringing the country to ruins.

    Thanks Nige.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Also, very interesting to see the LibDem votes - not falling off at anything like the rate to save the marginals, even with a strong alternative vote option to go for.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Note the difference in ground game in Castle Point. With the Conservatives having only a one point lead (well within the margin of error), this looks very vulnerable indeed. The support of the Canvey Island independents could be decisive in this battle.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2015
    Are ukip ahead on the unweighted numbers in S Bas? Only one of these ive bet on (20/1)

    Edit: seems like ukip ahead on unweighted in all bar cambs. I reckon the election will be a test of pollstersmethodology when 4 parties can get 10% plus
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    It is not a gamechanging poll as the expectation of total number of UKIP seats was low anyway.

    A gamechanger would be a poll showing the probability of 10+ UKIP seats at the expense of the Tories. No sign of that here. The reverse.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    GIN1138 said:

    A handful of seats at best for UKIP and the price will be Ed Miliband bringing the country to ruins.

    Thanks Nige.

    You should be thanking Dave, if he didn't dump his core to try and pick up the Guardianista's he was never going to get UKIP would be on 5%.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Surprised by Boston - perhaps I mix with the wrong crowd?

    Still think they'll win it, though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    GIN1138 said:

    A handful of seats at best for UKIP and the price will be Ed Miliband bringing the country to ruins.

    Thanks Nige.

    Voting UKIP doesn't risk letting in Labour in any of these seats.

    It's strange to think that Labour recently held Castle Point, and came within a whisker of winning Boston & Skegness, and the Lib Dems held NE Cambs. under Clement Freud.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    isam said:

    Are ukip ahead on the unweighted numbers in S Bas? Only one of these ive bet on (20/1)

    Edit: seems like ukip ahead on unweighted in all bar cambs. I reckon the election will be a test of pollstersmethodology when 4 parties can get 10% plus

    Which table ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    MarqueeMark said:

    I thought Boston and Skegness was a nailed-on UKIP gain as the Tories had left the field of battle?

    Plenty of bar-chart material there for the anti-UKIP vote to be harvested.

    Sticking with Carswell being the lone UKIP MP in May. As per my entry yesterday.

    Plenty of anti-Conservative voters to be harvested, too.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Are ukip ahead on the unweighted numbers in S Bas? Only one of these ive bet on (20/1)

    Edit: seems like ukip ahead on unweighted in all bar cambs. I reckon the election will be a test of pollstersmethodology when 4 parties can get 10% plus

    Which table ?
    Table 2 of each one?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    antifrank said:

    Note the difference in ground game in Castle Point. With the Conservatives having only a one point lead (well within the margin of error), this looks very vulnerable indeed. The support of the Canvey Island independents could be decisive in this battle.

    I think the Canvey Island independents developed out of the local Labour Party.
  • GarethofthevaleGarethofthevale Posts: 503
    Surprised Con ahead in Boston but also surprised that UKIP so close in Castle Point. UKIP needs to target the remaining Labour vote in those 2 seats hard "Only UKIP can beat the Tories". Of course, I would expect the Tories will now also start throwing more resources at Castle Point

    South Basildon looks like an interesting 3 way marginal. Wouldn't have expected Lab to put in as much effort here as they seem to be doing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    GIN1138 said:

    A handful of seats at best for UKIP and the price will be Ed Miliband bringing the country to ruins.

    Thanks Nige.

    Maybe. If these results are spot on, it shows a Tory vote of 34% is going to be far, far more efficiently spread than we have ever seen before.

    That, and the Libem vote not cratering to zero outside their marginals, both look to be very encouraging for the blue team.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    CD13 said:

    Surprised by Boston - perhaps I mix with the wrong crowd?

    Still think they'll win it, though.

    The Survation poll in Boston & Skegness always looked strange when you looked at it in detail.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    CD13 said:

    Surprised by Boston - perhaps I mix with the wrong crowd?

    Still think they'll win it, though.

    Boston has a right crowd?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    3 seats would be a good night for Ukip frankly.

    Meanwhile on Guido - PWC donated £400k to Labour in the last quarter.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Lib Dem voters from 2010 split evenly between Conservatives and UKIP (21% and 23% respectively).

    Labour voters from 2010 break heavily for UKIP (6% Conservative, 20% UKIP).

    UKIP need to work heavily on the remaining Labour voters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Table 5 looks quite good for UKIP in Boston I think.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited February 2015
    Wowza. So where are UKIP gonna get their MPs? Carswell I guess. Reckless could have trouble maybe on this & Farage isn't nailed on.

    2 maybe 3 MPs? Unless they get traction in campaign but you'd think all things being equal the tories would boost their vote share not t'other way.

    Said it before, say it again: head says SNP-LAB but heart's beginning to pull against. Tories? 1992 all over again?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    This explains the activity around Castle Point recently, only the unfavourable adjustments to UKIP take the Conservatives into the lead.

    The Boston and Skegness poll is very different to the one Survation carried out last September which had UKIP way ahead.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Sean_F said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I thought Boston and Skegness was a nailed-on UKIP gain as the Tories had left the field of battle?

    Plenty of bar-chart material there for the anti-UKIP vote to be harvested.

    Sticking with Carswell being the lone UKIP MP in May. As per my entry yesterday.

    Plenty of anti-Conservative voters to be harvested, too.
    Maybe. But they have disproportionately gone. How many on the Left want to have their constituency represented by a Kipper - the most hated party on offer?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sean_F said:

    Lib Dem voters from 2010 split evenly between Conservatives and UKIP (21% and 23% respectively).

    Labour voters from 2010 break heavily for UKIP (6% Conservative, 20% UKIP).

    UKIP need to work heavily on the remaining Labour voters.

    South Basildon candidate is an ex labour mayor I think...10/3 a good bet
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    This chap needs putting on a desert island for the safety of everyone else.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-31523228
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited February 2015
    If you look at 'donations accepted by accounting unit' you get a picture of which seats parties are directing money to.

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/donations-and-loans-to-political-parties/quarterly-donations-and-loans#acceptedbyaus
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX

    Bloody ex-Millfield types....

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX

    Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    GIN1138 said:

    A handful of seats at best for UKIP and the price will be Ed Miliband bringing the country to ruins.

    Thanks Nige.

    Grow up and accept responsibility for your parties own shortcomings.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    UKIP fading?

    Good.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited February 2015
    On topic it does fit with some other polling that shows UKIP are taking votes in safeish Tory seats.

    But some of these are too close to call.

    A couple of caveats Lord A's by election polls in straight Con/UKIP fights have over estimated UKIP and underestimated Con.

    I'm fairly certain Survation polled these seats last summer and found UKIP gains. Would like to see them rerun them again to see if it is a methodology issue or a genuine swing since then.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I thought Boston and Skegness was a nailed-on UKIP gain as the Tories had left the field of battle?

    Plenty of bar-chart material there for the anti-UKIP vote to be harvested.

    Sticking with Carswell being the lone UKIP MP in May. As per my entry yesterday.

    Plenty of anti-Conservative voters to be harvested, too.
    Maybe. But they have disproportionately gone. How many on the Left want to have their constituency represented by a Kipper - the most hated party on offer?

    If you look at the tables, three times as many Labour supporters are going to UKIP as are going to the Conservatives.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Sean_F said:

    Lib Dem voters from 2010 split evenly between Conservatives and UKIP (21% and 23% respectively).

    Labour voters from 2010 break heavily for UKIP (6% Conservative, 20% UKIP).

    UKIP need to work heavily on the remaining Labour voters.

    How do they do that? By telling Labour voters that Ukip are better than the Tories? What do they have to offer those Labour voters?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Purseybear said:

    Wowza. So where are UKIP gonna get their MPs? Carswell I guess. Reckless could have trouble maybe on this & Farage isn't nailed on.

    2 maybe 3 MPs? Unless they get traction in campaign but you'd think all things being equal the tories would boost their vote share not t'other way.

    Said it before, say it again: head says SNP-LAB but heart's beginning to pull against. Tories? 1992 all over again?

    Leave it out Auders! If those responses were found by Survation ukip would probably be ahead in three of them, and eve tone would be backing them on the strength of it

    It's more a test of individual pollsters interpretation of the data than anything
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712
    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    Note the difference in ground game in Castle Point. With the Conservatives having only a one point lead (well within the margin of error), this looks very vulnerable indeed. The support of the Canvey Island independents could be decisive in this battle.

    I think the Canvey Island independents developed out of the local Labour Party.
    Indeed, and the recent entry on their blog, from their Chair, makes it plain that any alliance with UKIP is for local purposes only. She’s careful to avoid any mention of recommendation of UKIP on a national level.

    I suspect UKIP will do well there, but by no means well enough. The Labour candidate, too, is a well-known local man, although a tad “mature” to become a first-time MP!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Isam at what point are we allowed to say 'peak kipper'?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    anotherDave said:

    If you look at 'donations accepted by accounting unit' you get a picture of which seats parties are directing money to.

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/donations-and-loans-to-political-parties/quarterly-donations-and-loans#acceptedbyaus

    Labour's 10.75m in outstanding loans looks an interesting area to study in a little more detail....

  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    GIN1138 said:

    A handful of seats at best for UKIP and the price will be Ed Miliband bringing the country to ruins.

    Thanks Nige.

    The only conclusion I can draw from the NE Cambs %ages is that of a massive swing from LD to UKIP. At least with 46% Tory vote it makes it still a respectable place for responsible people to visit. As far as I am concerned there is still plenty of time for these other parts of the country to show they refuse have the race card dealt to them.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    BenM said:

    UKIP fading?

    Good.


    Fading??

    Glad you're not my accountant

    What are the differences in ukip share from 2010?? +20, +23, +26, +36

    Yeah struggling
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Purseybear said:

    Said it before, say it again

    Quite so.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX

    Bloody ex-Millfield types....

    The report does say:-

    "There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry."
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Freggles said:

    Isam at what point are we allowed to say 'peak kipper'?

    Ha whenever you like! But prepare to be challenged...

    This is more likely peak kpper than 'fading' though surely ? They're up 20-36%!!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Anyway, I'm really hacked off because I'd drafted a long piece on UKIP for my next post and it's now going to need some changes to reflect these polls.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Sean_F said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I thought Boston and Skegness was a nailed-on UKIP gain as the Tories had left the field of battle?

    Plenty of bar-chart material there for the anti-UKIP vote to be harvested.

    Sticking with Carswell being the lone UKIP MP in May. As per my entry yesterday.

    Plenty of anti-Conservative voters to be harvested, too.
    Maybe. But they have disproportionately gone. How many on the Left want to have their constituency represented by a Kipper - the most hated party on offer?

    If you look at the tables, three times as many Labour supporters are going to UKIP as are going to the Conservatives.
    The white vote Labour still manages to retain is flakey at best. I think by elections in the next electoral cycle will be when they start to actually capture seats though. Sensible strategy to pursue, needs the right leader as in Farage but not Carswell.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Does the fact UKIP had no candidate in Castle Point in 2010 affect the adjustments?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Sean_F said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I thought Boston and Skegness was a nailed-on UKIP gain as the Tories had left the field of battle?

    Plenty of bar-chart material there for the anti-UKIP vote to be harvested.

    Sticking with Carswell being the lone UKIP MP in May. As per my entry yesterday.

    Plenty of anti-Conservative voters to be harvested, too.
    Maybe. But they have disproportionately gone. How many on the Left want to have their constituency represented by a Kipper - the most hated party on offer?

    If you look at the tables, three times as many Labour supporters are going to UKIP as are going to the Conservatives.
    Have gone. That is my point. If we are at peak Kipper, they have maxed out already.

    What it does confirm though is the death of Labour as a potent force in a swathe of seats that helped them get a majority up to 2010.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    FrankBooth said:

    Sean_F said:

    Lib Dem voters from 2010 split evenly between Conservatives and UKIP (21% and 23% respectively).

    Labour voters from 2010 break heavily for UKIP (6% Conservative, 20% UKIP).

    UKIP need to work heavily on the remaining Labour voters.

    How do they do that? By telling Labour voters that Ukip are better than the Tories? What do they have to offer those Labour voters?
    Its obvious innit? Well it is if you are a Chelsea fan.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    FrankBooth said:

    Sean_F said:

    Lib Dem voters from 2010 split evenly between Conservatives and UKIP (21% and 23% respectively).

    Labour voters from 2010 break heavily for UKIP (6% Conservative, 20% UKIP).

    UKIP need to work heavily on the remaining Labour voters.

    How do they do that? By telling Labour voters that Ukip are better than the Tories? What do they have to offer those Labour voters?
    The opportunity to throw out the old enemy. Lib Dems did the same with rural Labour voters.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    isam said:

    Are ukip ahead on the unweighted numbers in S Bas? Only one of these ive bet on (20/1)

    Edit: seems like ukip ahead on unweighted in all bar cambs. I reckon the election will be a test of pollstersmethodology when 4 parties can get 10% plus

    Yes, it's the turnout weighting which knocks UKIP down to second. This means there is everything to play for and it's down to the local campaigners to get the voters to the polls.

    Normally this is the sort of thing that you would expect incumbents to be better at, but in somewhere like Boston and Skegness, which was Tory even in 1997, perhaps the local Blue campaigning won't be up to scratch.

    It could be harder for UKIP in South Basildon & East Thurrock, where the local Tories will have been used to fighting hard for what was mostly the Lab/Con marginal of Basildon.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    edited February 2015
    Grumpy Kippers On The Slide here this morning! :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Look at the relative Con to Lab swings here it might mean that the Tories don't need to be 11.4% ahead of Labour in England to stop seat losses to Lab.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    BenM said:

    UKIP fading?

    Good.

    UKIP are at 32% in these seats. Prior to reallocation of don't knows, they're on 34%. Droves of Labour voters from 2010 seem to be switching to them. I don't think that's fading.

  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Sean_F said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX

    Bloody ex-Millfield types....

    The report does say:-

    "There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry."
    Do you think they care. It's a Soviet style witch hunt against ideological non conformists the purpose of which is to intimidate.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    When was the field work ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712
    Artist said:

    Does the fact UKIP had no candidate in Castle Point in 2010 affect the adjustments?

    I think you could reasonably describe the ex-Tory MP, Bob Spink, as UKIP, although IIRC the party regarded him as a loose cannon!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Boston
    It appears to be the reallocation of 'don't know' votes that puts the Conservatives ahead.

    Table 2: Con 22%, UKIP 26% (all respondents)
    Table 3: Con 37%, UKIP 37% (likely to vote)
    Table 4: Con 39%, UKIP 35% (manual adjustment of data reallocating some don't knows)

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Boston-Skegness-Feb-15-Full-tables.pdf
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    isam said:

    Who said it was going to be easy?

    You did
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Look at the relative Con to Lab swings here it might mean that the Tories don't need to be 11.4% ahead of Labour in England to stop seat losses to Lab.

    Heresy.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2015
    MikeSmithson said:

    isam said:

    Who said it was going to be easy?

    You did
    Eh? No I didn't, why make things up?

    I said it would be easy in the two by elections and it was... You chose to ignore me then, fair enough
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    TGOHF said:

    When was the field work ?

    The Jan 26th to 5th Feb for all of them
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I thought Boston and Skegness was a nailed-on UKIP gain as the Tories had left the field of battle?

    Plenty of bar-chart material there for the anti-UKIP vote to be harvested.

    Sticking with Carswell being the lone UKIP MP in May. As per my entry yesterday.

    Plenty of anti-Conservative voters to be harvested, too.
    Maybe. But they have disproportionately gone. How many on the Left want to have their constituency represented by a Kipper - the most hated party on offer?

    Yeah I heard Farage was flying UKIP bear bombers in the Channel today. Oh wait I got the propaganda narratives mixed up, must direct my hate at the right target.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Look at the relative Con to Lab swings here it might mean that the Tories don't need to be 11.4% ahead of Labour in England to stop seat losses to Lab.

    The recent marginals poll showed a swing from Tory>Lab of 9%. Current England polling shows a swing nationally of about 9%. The marginals don't look very different to be honest.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2015
    I am rather dubious of the value of weighting on past VI when UKIP had such small numbers in 2010.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Obviously this polling malarkey is too complicated for me. In the Boston tables they found more Kippers than Cons but they end up 3% behind. So the pollsters don't believe they'll vote (possibly because they didn't last time). But if it's close, they might well do - but what do I know?

    It might explain why I get the wrong impression - they're all lying to me!.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    anotherDave said:

    Boston
    It appears to be the reallocation of 'don't know' votes that puts the Conservatives ahead.

    Table 2: Con 22%, UKIP 26% (all respondents)
    Table 3: Con 37%, UKIP 37% (likely to vote)
    Table 4: Con 39%, UKIP 35% (manual adjustment of data reallocating some don't knows)

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Boston-Skegness-Feb-15-Full-tables.pdf

    Table 3 for Castle Point puts UKIP ahead by 39% to 37%.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sean_F said:

    BenM said:

    UKIP fading?

    Good.

    UKIP are at 32% in these seats. Prior to reallocation of don't knows, they're on 34%. Droves of Labour voters from 2010 seem to be switching to them. I don't think that's fading.

    We could use some fresh Labour-UKIP polling. However since Ashcroft's next constituency polling is being presented at a ConHome event (on 4th March) I'd guess it will be straight Lab-Con marginals, perhaps with some LD-Con mixed in.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Freggles said:

    Isam at what point are we allowed to say 'peak kipper'?

    Anytime since mid September

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    About 2 weeks out of date - next update would show a further dip.

    With even Opinium no longer showing 20%+ they are left with Survation for the Mirror and the occasional 23% to keep the average up.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Hmm... a bit underwater in Boston now...

    But OTOH This probably means Cameron gets the highest leader vote share...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Indigo said:

    I am rather dubious of the value of weighting on past VI when UKIP had such small numbers in 2010.

    Well that's what I have based almost my entire portfolio of GE bets on so hope you're right!
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX

    Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
    Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.
    Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
    Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Next batch of Ashcroft marginals in on the 4th of March.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    @MikeSmithson Which table did you think was the best indicator - Turnout unweighted was it (Table 5 ?)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Look at the relative Con to Lab swings here it might mean that the Tories don't need to be 11.4% ahead of Labour in England to stop seat losses to Lab.

    The recent marginals poll showed a swing from Tory>Lab of 9%. Current England polling shows a swing nationally of about 9%. The marginals don't look very different to be honest.
    Which poll of the marginals showed a 9% Con to Lab swing in England?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706
    Not only does UKIP need to be ahead in these seats but they also need to get that vote all out. Past performance suggests this is where the Tories have an advantage, but that depends on how good 'safe' seats are at conducting regular canvasses and the Tories attention will be split over dozens of seats on election day.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Flightpath said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX

    Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
    Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.
    Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
    Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
    So every Chelsea supporter on that train was a racist bigot were they? I see
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Flightpath said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX

    Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
    Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.
    Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
    Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
    I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-

    "There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    Flightpath said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX

    Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
    Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.
    Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
    Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
    The French fellow clearly didn't understand that it was 'only a bit of banter'.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    The Tories are actually holding on to their vote very solidly in these seats - in line with national polling. With UKIP tacking left from here until the election [still a sound strategy?] and general pro-Tory swingback then it looks like 4 holds, but I won't be betting at the current prices.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Casino_Royale said:

    Not only does UKIP need to be ahead in these seats but they also need to get that vote all out. Past performance suggests this is where the Tories have an advantage, but that depends on how good 'safe' seats are at conducting regular canvasses and the Tories attention will be split over dozens of seats on election day.

    I'm sure Nige flying overhead on the day will get out the vote..

    Kipper seats question is now 1 , 2 or 3.. ie probably 10% of the seats the SNP will GAIN on the night.

    What a distraction.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    When was the UKIP candidate in Boston selected?

    Was it after the Survation poll?

    I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?

    Could also have implications North of the Border.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    CD13 said:

    Obviously this polling malarkey is too complicated for me. In the Boston tables they found more Kippers than Cons but they end up 3% behind. So the pollsters don't believe they'll vote (possibly because they didn't last time). But if it's close, they might well do - but what do I know?

    It might explain why I get the wrong impression - they're all lying to me!.

    I suspect they are weighting down too much.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2015
    In GE2010 the kipper had 919,000 people voting for them, if we take a 15% figure this time and a similar turn out, they are going to have around 4 million people voting for them.

    Expecting those extra 3m+ voters to fall in the same places and proportions as the original 919k voters from GE2010, especially since most of the GE2010 intake were Tories, and more than half of those since are ex-Labour, and a lot of the rest are NOTA LDs, is a massive stretch I think. VI weighting being tested to destruction imo.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Flightpath said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX

    Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
    Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.
    Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
    Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
    Always best to wait and see what really happened in these circumstances. In the mean time, let's not forget why the rule that you don't go to France and do racist stuff in front of people with cameras in their phones is called the Burley Principle.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    When was the UKIP candidate in Boston selected?

    Was it after the Survation poll?

    I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?

    Could also have implications North of the Border.

    I rebacked Labour in P&RS to take out my stake.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Casino_Royale said:

    Not only does UKIP need to be ahead in these seats but they also need to get that vote all out. Past performance suggests this is where the Tories have an advantage, but that depends on how good 'safe' seats are at conducting regular canvasses and the Tories attention will be split over dozens of seats on election day.

    I think everything comes down to the quality of the local constituency organisation in each case.

    The parties are neck and neck (even after adjustment for weighting) among voters aged under 65, but the Tories are ahead by 13% among those aged over 65.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Look at the relative Con to Lab swings here it might mean that the Tories don't need to be 11.4% ahead of Labour in England to stop seat losses to Lab.

    The recent marginals poll showed a swing from Tory>Lab of 9%. Current England polling shows a swing nationally of about 9%. The marginals don't look very different to be honest.
    Which poll of the marginals showed a 9% Con to Lab swing in England?
    Sorry I mean 4.5% swing. The ComRes ITV one the other day. Suggests Lab would gain 50 odd Tory seats.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Oops a daisy. Tory position reassuring with nurse votes still to return in coming weeks.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    When was the UKIP candidate in Boston selected?

    Was it after the Survation poll?

    I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?

    Could also have implications North of the Border.

    Not only is he 22, he looks about 17: http://www.bostonstandard.co.uk/news/local/exclusive-ukip-confirms-candidate-for-boston-and-skegness-1-6429680

    Fair play to him for being interested in politics, but I'm sure his age will swing a few votes away from him.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    When was the UKIP candidate in Boston selected?

    Was it after the Survation poll?

    I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?

    Could also have implications North of the Border.

    What were the unweighted scores in survations poll?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    FalseFlag said:

    Sean_F said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX

    Bloody ex-Millfield types....

    The report does say:-

    "There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry."
    Do you think they care. It's a Soviet style witch hunt against ideological non conformists the purpose of which is to intimidate.
    You admit that the Soviets carried out witch hunts? Well, it's progress I suppose.

  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    TheWatcher said:

    Flightpath said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX

    Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
    Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.
    Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
    Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
    The French fellow clearly didn't understand that it was 'only a bit of banter'.
    A state of mind.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Ishmael_X said:

    Flightpath said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX

    Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?
    Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.
    Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
    Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
    Always best to wait and see what really happened in these circumstances. In the mean time, let's not forget why the rule that you don't go to France and do racist stuff in front of people with cameras in their phones is called the Burley Principle.

    You wouldn't expect Flightpath to worry about silly things like evidence and proof would you?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    When was the UKIP candidate in Boston selected?

    Was it after the Survation poll?

    I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?

    Could also have implications North of the Border.

    I rebacked Labour in P&RS to take out my stake.
    Just checked.

    The Survation Boston polling was conducted start of September and saw a comfortable UKIP gain.

    UKIP selected the 22 year as their candidate at the end of November

    Lord Ashcroft polled end of Jan and found a Tory hold.

    I reckon it is the age of the candidate.

    I know, Post hoc ergo propter hoc
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    When was the UKIP candidate in Boston selected?

    Was it after the Survation poll?

    I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?

    Could also have implications North of the Border.

    Not only is he 22, he looks about 17: http://www.bostonstandard.co.uk/news/local/exclusive-ukip-confirms-candidate-for-boston-and-skegness-1-6429680

    Fair play to him for being interested in politics, but I'm sure his age will swing a few votes away from him.
    His age didnt stop him from being elected to the County Council. I cant see it being that much of a negative for him.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    When was the UKIP candidate in Boston selected?

    Was it after the Survation poll?

    I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?

    Could also have implications North of the Border.

    What were the unweighted scores in survations poll?
    143 -> 155 UKIP
    90 -> 89 CON

    Ashcroft

    260 -> 256 UKIP
    259 -> 222 CON

    Are the comparable figures... I think.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Indigo said:

    In GE2010 the kipper had 919,000 people voting for them, if we take a 15% figure this time and a similar turn out, they are going to have around 4 million people voting for them.

    Expecting those extra 3m+ voters to fall in the same places and proportions as the original 919k voters from GE2010, especially since most of the GE2010 intake were Tories, and more than half of those since are ex-Labour, and a lot of the rest are NOTA LDs, is a massive stretch I think. VI weighting being tested to destruction imo.

    That's not how past-vote weighting works.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited February 2015
    Sean_F said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Not only does UKIP need to be ahead in these seats but they also need to get that vote all out. Past performance suggests this is where the Tories have an advantage, but that depends on how good 'safe' seats are at conducting regular canvasses and the Tories attention will be split over dozens of seats on election day.

    I think everything comes down to the quality of the local constituency organisation in each case.

    The parties are neck and neck (even after adjustment for weighting) among voters aged under 65, but the Tories are ahead by 13% among those aged over 65.
    The Ashcroft poll does ask about campaigning.

    "Q.8 I would like to ask whether any of the main political parties have contacted you over the last few weeks - whether by delivering leaflets or
    newspapers, sending personally addressed letters, emailing, telephoning you at home or knocking on your door. Have you heard in any of these ways from...? Base: All respondents"

    In Boston that's UKIP 11%, Con 7%.

    Broken down by Voting Intention, UKIP seems to be either doing a better job of contacting it's supporters (20% vs Con 10%), or their message has a very strong effect. (These are small sub-sample though)
This discussion has been closed.