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I'm on UKIP - Thurrock at 2.75.Tissue_Price said:
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Lord Ashcroft really needs to go to Thanet South, and Hallam... and name the candidates.0
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Rotherham libel case vs the kippers starting to look a bit dicey
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/02/19/mp-suing-for-libel-says-he-knew-about-rotherham-abuse-despite-having-daughter-and-brother-on-local-council/0 -
You were pushing a UKIP have never lost an election, when they have been favourites with the bookies.isam said:
No idea what you are talking about regarding a meme, I certainly have never tried to create oneTheScreamingEagles said:
Weren't you only the other day, trying to create a whole new meme, based on three occurrences.isam said:
Too much read into too small a sample size... There have only been 7 elections in 30 years.TheScreamingEagles said:
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
s.isam said:Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip
Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
I know you think in a complete numptie with stats etc but I do analyse stats and bet on the results for a living, and am relatively successful at it. The fact is that this election is unlike others because if the SNP and Ukip effect as well as the lib dem drop. I could be wrong but I think there is a big chance the pollsters are wingjng it on Unchartered territory.
Put it this way, I bet in in running cricket a lot and if I used the 2007 model to trade today's fixtures I'd back the side to defend every time and lose overall. So models need to be flexible and change with time
The pollsters do and are adapting all the time, they constantly check and update.
I look at the Indyref, new and uncharted territory, a lot of them got it within 1-2%.
A while back Kippers said, we should ignore the pollsters that don't prompt for UKIP, because Survation did, and Survation had the highest scores for UKIP. I said it wasn't prompting but a fundamental methodology choice by Survation that saw them get the highest UKIP share.
So other pollsters started prompting, and lo and behold, no real change in UKIP's share.
I don't know who said we should ignore those who don't prompt for Ukip, it wasn't me, so is completely irrelevant to the point I was making
Do you only cash out for profit? Or sometimes when it's going wrong too to cut out a loss?
It is relevant because it referred to the uncharted territory
I generally only cash out for a profit.
I've seen it before that the polls can't adapt to the new reality, I saw it with the Cleggasm, I saw it with the indyref, I have a lot of faith in quite a lot of pollsters. Not all, but enough.
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The UK should behave much more like Germany in the EU.
IE, he who pays the piper calls the tune.
And we are paying the piper0 -
Well done.rottenborough said:0 -
No, our behaviour in the EU, should be like the Battle of Waterloo.taffys said:The UK should behave much more like Germany in the EU.
IE, he who pays the piper calls the tune.
And we are paying the piper
A Tory Prime Minister (an Eton educated Tory PM no less), uniting Europe to give the French a thrashing.0 -
I learnt French, German and Latin at school, plus I can speak, inter alia, Urdu and Punjabi
You are a cunning linguist0 -
Trading 101TheScreamingEagles said:
I generally only cash out for a profit.
It might be fairly basic to say let your winners run and cut the losers quickly. A lot of people do not follow those instructions. When you have stocks on a major exchange you have the option of trailing stops. A lot of brokerages do not allow trailing stops for the OTC or very low priced stocks. That tool was completely available for AXP. Be honest with yourself and ask yourself what you would do if you were up 20% and the stock had a 3% red day due to general market weakness. This is a factor extrinsic to the company, and was not large enough to trigger your stop. If you had other funds to trade the shorter-term plays like the ones that rise 10% before going back to where they were. If a 40% gainer, thus far, is playing out why not just let it run.
It always seems like newer traders tend to hold on to losses a bit too long and don’t let their winners run. The fear of losing profit and the hope of turning a loser around seems to rule. It is funny that with a psychology aimed toward saving your money the actions of a green trader is actually the worst. It would be better to swallow the losses quickly if you are going to cut your gains off fast too. And if you are going to hold onto your losers on hope you need to hold on to your winners in order to maximize them. The ideal situation is to cut your losers quickly, within reason, and let your winners run.0 -
If you owe the bank £1, the bank owns you, if you owe the bank £100bn. you own the bank.taffys said:Plucky Greeks standing up to The Fourth Reich EU?
If you owe someone a lot of money and can't really pay it back, the last thing you do is go and call that person a c*nt.
It appears from today's revelations that Greece going pop will end up costing the German tax payer something like £280bn in crystallised "Target2" transaction, Greek bonds owned by the ECB, bilateral loans etc. This is possibly what is behind Varoufakis' confidence.0 -
During the Sindy arguments Scotland discovered that it can have either the Pound or socialism - but not both.
Syriza is now discovering something similar. They seem to be in the deluded position that just because the Greek people voted for it they can keep the Euro / ECB support and still spend as much as they like.
I think what Germany is saying is essentially: 'Decide if you want the Euro and support for your banks or if you want to renege on reform and spending promises'.
I'm not sure how either side really backs down now. I very very much hope that warehouse is indeed full on newly printed Drachmas!0 -
Is interalia difficult to learn?0
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Latin is so 5th CenturyTheScreamingEagles said:
I learnt French, German and Latin at school, plus I can speak, inter alia, Urdu and PunjabiSunil_Prasannan said:
I learnt French AND GermanTheScreamingEagles said:
One of the reasons I learned French at school, was so I could mock les grenouilles in their own language.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, not sure I'd see anything wrong with calling the frogs frogs, anymore than I'd be irked to be called a rosbif (which, I gather, is French for 'clearly superior Anglo-Saxon').
They hate the Rosbification of their language.
(up to GCSE level, at any rate!)
I can also speak Malayalam (the language of Kerala, south India). I also taught myself how to read Greek and Russian.0 -
Given Labour have no chance in these seats, might they not be secretly pleased to see they are shedding votes here. It suggests that they are more likely to be putting on votes where they really need them. Ed could well turn out to be English marginals viagra but will his majority extend to Scotland?0
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Siding with the Fourth Reich are we?taffys said:Plucky Greeks standing up to The Fourth Reich EU?
If you owe someone a lot of money and can't really pay it back, the last thing you do is go and call that person a c*nt. 0 -
If you owe the bank £1, the bank owns you, if you owe the bank £100bn. you own the bank.
True but if your only solution to the problem means you will only ever owe the bank more, the bank has a decision to make.
Maybe the Germans have decided to cut the position now.0 -
Interesting that Labour have the same level of campaign activity in South Basildon & East Thurrock as UKIP and the Conservatives. It may be a seat that they are targeting to try and come through the middle.
People in the seat would prefer a Conservative led government by 41% to 37%.0 -
If these polls were from this time last year you lot would've laughed at them, its great progress for UKIP and shows just how far they've come in no time.0
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A bid rumour might be a convenient smoke-screen behind which to hide any other 'unusual activity". Some "unspecified European investors" behind a bid? All very vague.TheWatcher said:
One $50 million currency deal wouldn't push the price up that much. And I'd be surprised if you could rush a printing job on that scale through quickly. Never mind making up the plates, they have to make the paper first at the Bathford mill.MarqueeMark said:
There is general overcapacity in bank-note paper as DLR themselves point out - couldn't they just draw down stock?
And who says it would be a one-off job? There will be the New Pesata, the New Lira, the New Escudo....
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Sometimes it also to with what the cash out amount is. If it is the square root of bugger all, there's no point in cashing out, but occasionally there's a fightback, I remember when Man U were 3 nil down just after half time, no point cashing out then to minimise your losses, but they pulled it back to 3 all with about 5 mins to go.Pulpstar said:
Trading 101TheScreamingEagles said:
I generally only cash out for a profit.
It might be fairly basic to say let your winners run and cut the losers quickly. A lot of people do not follow those instructions. When you have stocks on a major exchange you have the option of trailing stops. A lot of brokerages do not allow trailing stops for the OTC or very low priced stocks. That tool was completely available for AXP. Be honest with yourself and ask yourself what you would do if you were up 20% and the stock had a 3% red day due to general market weakness. This is a factor extrinsic to the company, and was not large enough to trigger your stop. If you had other funds to trade the shorter-term plays like the ones that rise 10% before going back to where they were. If a 40% gainer, thus far, is playing out why not just let it run.
It always seems like newer traders tend to hold on to losses a bit too long and don’t let their winners run. The fear of losing profit and the hope of turning a loser around seems to rule. It is funny that with a psychology aimed toward saving your money the actions of a green trader is actually the worst. It would be better to swallow the losses quickly if you are going to cut your gains off fast too. And if you are going to hold onto your losers on hope you need to hold on to your winners in order to maximize them. The ideal situation is to cut your losers quickly, within reason, and let your winners run.
That is sadly a rarity.
The sport I generally cash out the most in is football, because looking at the results, for example at the world cup, backed the outsider, then cashed out when they scored, because over a long term period, the favourite ends up coming back and winning.
I've looked at applying that to Rugby in the past, but it doesn't seem to have the same trend as football. Generally the favourite scores the first try.0 -
The EU should be, ah, "invited" into the Commonwealth, by virtue of it having English as one of its Official Languages. Also, studies show that 51% of EU citizens have some knowledge of English.TheScreamingEagles said:A Tory Prime Minister (an Eton educated Tory PM no less), uniting Europe to give the French a thrashing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_the_European_Union0 -
I think they probably have, but then I don't think there was any other choice, it was just a question of timing.taffys said:If you owe the bank £1, the bank owns you, if you owe the bank £100bn. you own the bank.
True but if your only solution to the problem means you will only ever owe the bank more, the bank has a decision to make.
Maybe the Germans have decided to cut the position now.
The Greek economy isn't recovering, its getting worse, GDP is falling faster then external debt, so its Debt/GDP is going through the roof, and all the money it is borrowing is being used to pay the interest on money borrowed from French and German banks, none of it is making their economy any better, hence the Greek people have decided its futile making things worse with no end in sight.0 -
The problem Germany has is that if the Greeks do stick two fingers up at Germany and refuse to pay them there is not a lot the Germans can do, the other southern European countries will follow suit.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Siding with the Fourth Reich are we?taffys said:Plucky Greeks standing up to The Fourth Reich EU?
If you owe someone a lot of money and can't really pay it back, the last thing you do is go and call that person a c*nt.
Unfortunately for Germany the traditional way of punishing a country that did that is not available to them anymore, nor do they have the will to take such action. So Germany will get shafted0 -
Should Labour be secretly pleased at shedding votes in no chance seats in Scotland too? They seem to have much to be secretly pleased about north of the border....FrankBooth said:Given Labour have no chance in these seats, might they not be secretly pleased to see they are shedding votes here. It suggests that they are more likely to be putting on votes where they really need them. Ed could well turn out to be English marginals viagra but will his majority extend to Scotland?
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Labour held Basildon South and East Thurrock prior to 2010, but in general, Labour probably would want to put on its votes elsewhere.FrankBooth said:Given Labour have no chance in these seats, might they not be secretly pleased to see they are shedding votes here. It suggests that they are more likely to be putting on votes where they really need them. Ed could well turn out to be English marginals viagra but will his majority extend to Scotland?
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Tories worth a punt in Great Yarmouth (7/4) off the back of these polls?0
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Not much room for misunderstanding in the Bilt headlinePaul_Mid_Beds said:
The problem Germany has is that if the Greeks do stick two fingers up at Germany and refuse to pay them there is not a lot the Germans can do, the other southern European countries will follow suit.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Siding with the Fourth Reich are we?taffys said:Plucky Greeks standing up to The Fourth Reich EU?
If you owe someone a lot of money and can't really pay it back, the last thing you do is go and call that person a c*nt.
Unfortunately for Germany the traditional way of punishing a country that did that is not available to them anymore, nor do they have the will to take such action. So Germany will get shafted
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-NW2YGIUAAGIVA.jpg0 -
You'd be right if Greece was contemplatng really giving 'em the finger and deliberately defaulting and adopting a new Drachma. But it's not. It's in the infantile position of seeking to dictate terms to the ECB / Germany but whilst retaining the Euro and ELA support for the Greek banking system. Basically they are like the SNP - they want to keep spending but for the money to be coming from someone else. That's what Germany is not having any of. Freedom means leaving the shared currency and then balancing books in both cases. Both SNP and Syriza are in the intellectually bankrupt 'having cake and eating it' camp.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
The problem Germany has is that if the Greeks do stick two fingers up at Germany and refuse to pay them there is not a lot the Germans can do, the other southern European countries will follow suit.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Siding with the Fourth Reich are we?taffys said:Plucky Greeks standing up to The Fourth Reich EU?
If you owe someone a lot of money and can't really pay it back, the last thing you do is go and call that person a c*nt.
Unfortunately for Germany the traditional way of punishing a country that did that is not available to them anymore, nor do they have the will to take such action. So Germany will get shafted0 -
Merkel's going for a vetogasm.0
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That's a little unfair, in their latest offering to German the only real difference between what was asked for, and what was offered was 3% primary surplus this year, not the 4.5% demanded by the troika, to leave them some money for social programs (and one assumes, buying off disappointed voters), but they were still told to piss off, that is the act of a German determined to let Greece go imo.Patrick said:
You'd be right if Greece was contemplatng really giving 'em the finger and deliberately defaulting and adopting a new Drachma. But it's not. It's in the infantile position of seeking to dictate terms to the ECB / Germany but whilst retaining the Euro and ELA support for the Greek banking system. Basically they are like the SNP - they want to keep spending but for the money to be coming from someone else. That's what Germany is not having any of. Freedom means leaving the shared currency and then balancing books in both cases. Both SNP and Syriza are in the intellectually bankrupt 'having cake and eating it' camp.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
The problem Germany has is that if the Greeks do stick two fingers up at Germany and refuse to pay them there is not a lot the Germans can do, the other southern European countries will follow suit.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Siding with the Fourth Reich are we?taffys said:Plucky Greeks standing up to The Fourth Reich EU?
If you owe someone a lot of money and can't really pay it back, the last thing you do is go and call that person a c*nt.
Unfortunately for Germany the traditional way of punishing a country that did that is not available to them anymore, nor do they have the will to take such action. So Germany will get shafted0 -
Achtung! Deutschland spricht.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31532755
Germany rejects Greek loan request as "not substantial"0 -
Dijsselbloem clearly agreed to the Varoufakis letter, or why call EG? Greeks feeling “set up” as Germans reject (1/2)...
— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) February 19, 2015
2/2) and @Varoufakis climbdown on wording was supposed to be first phase of two part compromise, with Eurogroup reciprocating.
— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) February 19, 20150 -
Nein, nein, nein.
Big shock. The primary surplus of 3% for this year is the sticking point, Germany wants 4.5% as previously agreed, Tsipras needs the 3% surplus to fund some of the post election giveaways. To fulfil all of the promises the original 1.5% proposal would be required.0 -
Paging Adrian Harper, there's a line here for you to use.FrankBooth said:Ed could well turn out to be English marginals viagra
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Have the Germans just thrown Greece under the bus?0
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Do you make these incorrect statements in the hope that no one will bother to do a basic minutes check to find out the actual factsIndigo said:
I think they probably have, but then I don't think there was any other choice, it was just a question of timing.taffys said:If you owe the bank £1, the bank owns you, if you owe the bank £100bn. you own the bank.
True but if your only solution to the problem means you will only ever owe the bank more, the bank has a decision to make.
Maybe the Germans have decided to cut the position now.
The Greek economy isn't recovering, its getting worse, GDP is falling faster then external debt, so its Debt/GDP is going through the roof, and all the money it is borrowing is being used to pay the interest on money borrowed from French and German banks, none of it is making their economy any better, hence the Greek people have decided its futile making things worse with no end in sight.
Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% .
Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 20140 -
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The Greek bus is hanging over cliff. Tsipras is saying "Hang on a minute, lads. I've got a great idea".Floater said:Have the Germans just thrown Greece under the bus?
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Don't want to give the impression I'm completely against the Germans
http://www.fit.de/sunil/produkte/sunil-aktiv/0 -
HaveIGotNewsForYou @haveigotnews
Cameron says Russia will face serious economic and financial consequences if it destabilises Ukraine. It will be forced to join the EU.0 -
If I were the Germans, I'd let the Greeks feel real pain. It's cheaper in the long run to bail out EC banks in the event of a Greek default than to pour money into a bottomless pit of ungrateful barstewards .
The Greek Government if doing its best to oblige.0 -
I hope so.Indigo said:Rotherham libel case vs the kippers starting to look a bit dicey
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/02/19/mp-suing-for-libel-says-he-knew-about-rotherham-abuse-despite-having-daughter-and-brother-on-local-council/
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And did you notice how fast its Debt is rising ?MarkSenior said:
Do you make these incorrect statements in the hope that no one will bother to do a basic minutes check to find out the actual factsIndigo said:
I think they probably have, but then I don't think there was any other choice, it was just a question of timing.taffys said:If you owe the bank £1, the bank owns you, if you owe the bank £100bn. you own the bank.
True but if your only solution to the problem means you will only ever owe the bank more, the bank has a decision to make.
Maybe the Germans have decided to cut the position now.
The Greek economy isn't recovering, its getting worse, GDP is falling faster then external debt, so its Debt/GDP is going through the roof, and all the money it is borrowing is being used to pay the interest on money borrowed from French and German banks, none of it is making their economy any better, hence the Greek people have decided its futile making things worse with no end in sight.
Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% .
Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 2014
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Brilliant.frpenkridge said:
The Greek bus is hanging over cliff. Tsipras is saying "Hang on a minute, lads. I've got a great idea".Floater said:Have the Germans just thrown Greece under the bus?
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It has been pointed out on another site that "others" are on 6% in Castle Point, compared to 1% in the other seats. This could be for people who think Spink is standing again or for the Canvey Island Independents.0
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Is that somehow supposed to be an indictment of the coalition?!MarkSenior said:Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% .
Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 20140 -
Could be bad for Sir Kevin politically speaking if he gets involved in this. I thought he'd swerved the worst of it but must be good for UKIP in Rother Valley.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I hope so.Indigo said:Rotherham libel case vs the kippers starting to look a bit dicey
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/02/19/mp-suing-for-libel-says-he-knew-about-rotherham-abuse-despite-having-daughter-and-brother-on-local-council/0 -
According to the BBC there may now be an almighty fight between Germany and the rest of the EU over their rejection of Greek proposals. I myself think that Tsipras has a real fight on his hands to keep Greece in the Euro; that Syriza will split; that Merkel must now prove her mettle after suffering a massive electoral defeat last week in Germany.Floater said:Have the Germans just thrown Greece under the bus?
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On those figures the Greek economy must be in better shape than the UK economy. Genius George screws it up again! Or summink.Tissue_Price said:
Is that somehow supposed to be an indictment of the coalition?!MarkSenior said:Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% .
Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 20140 -
I simply pointed out that your statement that Greece GDP was falling was factually incorrect . You should explain why you feel the need to post such porkies .Indigo said:
And did you notice how fast its Debt is rising ?MarkSenior said:
Do you make these incorrect statements in the hope that no one will bother to do a basic minutes check to find out the actual factsIndigo said:
I think they probably have, but then I don't think there was any other choice, it was just a question of timing.taffys said:If you owe the bank £1, the bank owns you, if you owe the bank £100bn. you own the bank.
True but if your only solution to the problem means you will only ever owe the bank more, the bank has a decision to make.
Maybe the Germans have decided to cut the position now.
The Greek economy isn't recovering, its getting worse, GDP is falling faster then external debt, so its Debt/GDP is going through the roof, and all the money it is borrowing is being used to pay the interest on money borrowed from French and German banks, none of it is making their economy any better, hence the Greek people have decided its futile making things worse with no end in sight.
Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% .
Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 20140 -
There’s an English Democrat apparently going to stand. I very much doubt that the CIIP will put up a candidate; as someone pointed out upthread they arose out a very local dispute which significantly affected the Labour Party.Artist said:It has been pointed out on another site that "others" are on 6% in Castle Point, compared to 1% in the other seats. This could be for people who think Spink is standing again or for the Canvey Island Independents.
I’ve not heard that Spink intends to stand again.0 -
Not at all .Tissue_Price said:
Is that somehow supposed to be an indictment of the coalition?!MarkSenior said:Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% .
Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 20140 -
Probably a gift in staff time. How can they be given back? Withdraw labour? Send a bill to them? Labour to pay PWC?Floater said:
Surely they will give that back now?TGOHF said:3 seats would be a good night for Ukip frankly.
Meanwhile on Guido - PWC donated £400k to Labour in the last quarter.
I mean they wouldn't want to be seen as hypocrites would they.......
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According to the BBC there may now be an almighty fight between Germany and the rest of the EU over their rejection of Greek proposals.
I'm sure the Germans would find an extremely powerful ally in tory England if only they had the sense.
When is Berlin going to realise we should be running this together and they should be imposing the reforms we want in return for our support and cash.0 -
"There are a quarter of a million Germans in Greece and they'll be made to suffer. Every restaurant, cafe, ice-cream parlour, gambling den and nightclub in Athens, Salonika and Crete will be smashed."Casino_Royale said:
Brilliant.frpenkridge said:
The Greek bus is hanging over cliff. Tsipras is saying "Hang on a minute, lads. I've got a great idea".Floater said:Have the Germans just thrown Greece under the bus?
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thought for the day re being expelled for being racist at Millfield. If this 21 year old is found to be one of those responsible for kicking the black man off the train there is no doubt his career will be blighted for what amounts to a minor infringement . He will probably be forever tarred. At Millfield two boys were expelled for improper conduct with each other. One went on to have a successful career in public life and is reasonably well known. If this part of his past was now known I'm sure he would get nothing but sympathy.0
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Pro-German, like in the 1930s?taffys said:According to the BBC there may now be an almighty fight between Germany and the rest of the EU over their rejection of Greek proposals.
I'm sure the Germans would find an extremely powerful ally in tory England if only they had the sense.
When is Berlin going to realise we should be running this together and they should be imposing the reforms we want in return for our support and cash.0 -
Its a typical Senior cherry picked statistic. Yes they had a couple of good quarters at the end of last year, and what was immediately before that ?Tissue_Price said:
Is that somehow supposed to be an indictment of the coalition?!MarkSenior said:Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% .
Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 2014
−0.2% in 2008, −3.1% in 2009, −4.9% in 2010, −7.1% in 2011, −7.0% in 2012 and −3.9% in 2013
Then lets look at what has happened to the REAL GDP over the last few years
242.1 in 2008
237.4 in 2009
226.2 in 2010
207.8 in 2011
194.2 in 2012
182.4 in 2013
and their debt
264.6 in 2008
301.0 in 2009
330.3 in 2010
356.0 in 2011
304.7 in 2012
319.1 in 2013
Debt roaring up, GDP falling like a rock, nothing to see here, move along please0 -
Greece looks to have a huge solvency problem.
Surely loans only make sense on the basis of the ACTUAL issue being liquidity ?0 -
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 53m 53 minutes agoTCPoliticalBetting said:
Probably a gift in staff time. How can they be given back? Withdraw labour? Send a bill to them? Labour to pay PWC?Floater said:
Surely they will give that back now?TGOHF said:3 seats would be a good night for Ukip frankly.
Meanwhile on Guido - PWC donated £400k to Labour in the last quarter.
I mean they wouldn't want to be seen as hypocrites would they.......
To be fair to Labour, knowing PWC's rates £386,605 probably equates to one staffer doing photocopying for a couple of hours twice a week.0 -
Sir Kevin Barron features regularly in Private Eye. Not many MPs do.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I hope so.Indigo said:Rotherham libel case vs the kippers starting to look a bit dicey
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/02/19/mp-suing-for-libel-says-he-knew-about-rotherham-abuse-despite-having-daughter-and-brother-on-local-council/
How did he get his knighthood?0 -
These polls if true are yet more compelling evidence for the increased efficiency of the Tory vote in 2015 compared to 2010. Winning seats by smallish margins is Labour's trick and the Tories are now managing it. If the Tories and Labour poll anything like 2010 they will gain seats.
Of course I still expect Labour to poll better than 2010, at least in England.0 -
http://www.fit.de/sunil/produkte/sunil-2in1/Pulpstar said:Greece looks to have a huge solvency problem.
Surely loans only make sense on the basis of the ACTUAL issue being liquidity ?0 -
Daniel Hannah, so true..... pic.twitter.com/l9viMEfSTW
— Richard Lionheart (@RichardLionhea) February 19, 20150 -
Interesting, Pulpstar, but the article would be more helpful if it were written better.Pulpstar said:
Could be bad for Sir Kevin politically speaking if he gets involved in this. I thought he'd swerved the worst of it but must be good for UKIP in Rother Valley.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I hope so.Indigo said:Rotherham libel case vs the kippers starting to look a bit dicey
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/02/19/mp-suing-for-libel-says-he-knew-about-rotherham-abuse-despite-having-daughter-and-brother-on-local-council/
There is obviously some potential for UKIP to pick up a seat or two in the area, but they would need some tactical voting from Conservatives. They may get some, but it would be contrary to previous form if they did so in enough numbers to shift those Lab majorities.0 -
On the question of possible tactical voting by Labour supporters in seats which appear to be Con/UKIP battles, we have to be careful not to assume that the Labour supporters form a monolithic block who are likely to behave in a uniform way. At the risk of over-simplifying, we can consider two types of Labour voter:
- Traditional WWC Labour voters, more likely to be in socio-economic classes C1/C2 or DE, worried about immigration, possibly working in the public sector in lowish-paid jobs, typically Sun or Mirror readers. These are voters potentially likely to be tempted by UKIP, and , even if they'd prefer a Labour MPS, might therefore be susceptible to tactical voting for the UKIP candidate.
- Liberal-left voters, academics, more highly-paid public sector workers, Guardian or Indy readers, very concerned about racisim and very suspicious that Farage's anti-immigration stance is racist. Such voters might be tempted, if Labour couldn't win in their seat, to hold their noses and vote Tory as the lesser of two evils.
Whether one of these effects happens will depend on the seat and on the UKIP candidate - for example, in Newark, there was definitely anti-UKIP tactical voting, but in Rochester & Strood there may have been anti-Tory tactical voting. Indeed you might get both effects simultaneously in a given seat.0 -
MikeK said:
Daniel Hannah, so true..... pic.twitter.com/l9viMEfSTW
— Richard Lionheart (@RichardLionhea) February 19, 2015
Why didn't he just link Hannan's article in the Mail today, that is where that text comes from
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2959339/I-m-increasingly-certain-Greece-leave-euro-best-Britain-says-MEP-DANIEL-HANNAN.html0 -
So Margate Hodge attacks PwC.TCPoliticalBetting said:Probably a gift in staff time. How can they be given back? Withdraw labour? Send a bill to them? Labour to pay PWC?
Ed says in the HoC he has not taken a penny from any "dodgy" donors.
Today Labour have said the PwC donation is fine so they are not giving it back.
Awesome0 -
If true thats bad news for ukip? if they cant get over the line in their best seats their vote share's gonna be v low elsewhere by my reckoning?Sean_F said:
UKIP are at 32% in these seats. Prior to reallocation of don't knows, they're on 34%. Droves of Labour voters from 2010 seem to be switching to them. I don't think that's fading.BenM said:UKIP fading?
Good.
This election's looking a 2-horse race: Cons v Lab. Scotland's an interesting sideshow that only comes into play if Lab are just south of an outright maj.
2 party politics returns to Britain?
[Irony is, the 2 parties may collect less vote share than ever before. It's just that the 'minor' parties aren't going to scoop seats if this goes on. Spread too thinly. Thats our voting system for you.]0 -
Nobody knows what Britain wants, they're all over the place.taffys said:According to the BBC there may now be an almighty fight between Germany and the rest of the EU over their rejection of Greek proposals.
I'm sure the Germans would find an extremely powerful ally in tory England if only they had the sense.
When is Berlin going to realise we should be running this together and they should be imposing the reforms we want in return for our support and cash.0 -
You made a false statement that Greece GDP was falling and instead of explaining why you want to post such falsities stop attacking the person who has caught you out , fezz up and explain your reasons .Indigo said:
Its a typical Senior cherry picked statistic. Yes they had a couple of good quarters at the end of last year, and what was immediately before that ?Tissue_Price said:
Is that somehow supposed to be an indictment of the coalition?!MarkSenior said:Greece GDP rose in the 4th quarter of 2014 by 1.7% and in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% .
Not spectacular but rather better than the UK figures of 0.5 and 0.7% in the last 2 quarters of 2014
−0.2% in 2008, −3.1% in 2009, −4.9% in 2010, −7.1% in 2011, −7.0% in 2012 and −3.9% in 2013
Then lets look at what has happened to the REAL GDP over the last few years
242.1 in 2008
237.4 in 2009
226.2 in 2010
207.8 in 2011
194.2 in 2012
182.4 in 2013
and their debt
264.6 in 2008
301.0 in 2009
330.3 in 2010
356.0 in 2011
304.7 in 2012
319.1 in 2013
Debt roaring up, GDP falling like a rock, nothing to see here, move along please
Incidently you did not post the Greek debt figures for 2014 . Can that be because they are actually marginally down on 2013 and would not sit well with your other claims
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Jim Waterson @jimwaterson 28m28 minutes ago
UKIP's new major donor is the son of Daily Telegraph owner Sir Frederick Barclay: http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/property-developer-son-of-daily-telegraphs-billionaire-owner …
I bet thats got his father and the DT foaming at the mouth.0 -
The only joker round here is you. I understand that Cameron has been photographed in the past shaking hands with Putin. Which must of course mean he supports his attempted annexation of Eastern Ukraine.Flightpath said:
Keep defending him. What a joker you are. Don't like it up 'em thats you.
That is the level of your argument which is why most sensible people on here rightly consider you a bit of a tosser.
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Oh yeah haha I was joking I thought that was obvious?!TheScreamingEagles said:
You were pushing a UKIP have never lost an election, when they have been favourites with the bookies.isam said:
No idea what you are talking about regarding a meme, I certainly have never tried to create oneTheScreamingEagles said:
Weren't you only the other day, trying to create a whole new meme, based on three occurrences.isam said:
Too much read into too small a sample size... There have only been 7 elections in 30 years.TheScreamingEagles said:
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
s.isam said:Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip
Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
I know you think in a complete numptie with stats etc but I do analyse stats and bet on the results for a living, and am relatively successful at it. The fact is that this election is unlike others because if the SNP and Ukip effect as well as the lib dem drop. I could be wrong but I think there is a big chance the pollsters are wingjng it on Unchartered territory.
Put it this way, I bet in in running cricket a lot and if I used the 2007 model to trade today's fixtures I'd back the side to defend every time and lose overall. So models need to be flexible and change with time
The pollsters do and are adapting all the time, they constantly check and update.
I look at the Indyref, new and uncharted territory, a lot of them got it within 1-2%.
A while back Kippers said, we should ignore the pollsters that don't prompt for UKIP, because Survation did, and Survation had the highest scores for UKIP. I said it wasn't prompting but a fundamental methodology choice by Survation that saw them get the highest UKIP share.
So other pollsters started prompting, and lo and behold, no real change in UKIP's share.
I don't know who said we should ignore those who don't prompt for Ukip, it wasn't me, so is completely irrelevant to the point I was making
Do you only cash out for profit? Or sometimes when it's going wrong too to cut out a loss?
It is relevant because it referred to the uncharted territory
I generally only cash out for a profit.
I've seen it before that the polls can't adapt to the new reality, I saw it with the Cleggasm, I saw it with the indyref, I have a lot of faith in quite a lot of pollsters. Not all, but enough.
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Some good humour on here! Love the frpenkridge nod to The Italian Job :-)Tissue_Price said:HaveIGotNewsForYou @haveigotnews
Cameron says Russia will face serious economic and financial consequences if it destabilises Ukraine. It will be forced to join the EU.
Why no like buttons on this site? Not poss?0 -
Germany should do the sensible thing. Get out the of Euro.
And adopt the pound.0 -
Well, "just south" here may mean 20 or 30 seats. Unless there's a significant overall swing one way or the other before the election, or the polls perform badly, there's a good chance that number of seats might matter.Purseybear said:
If true thats bad news for ukip? if they cant get over the line in their best seats their vote share's gonna be v low elsewhere by my reckoning?Sean_F said:
UKIP are at 32% in these seats. Prior to reallocation of don't knows, they're on 34%. Droves of Labour voters from 2010 seem to be switching to them. I don't think that's fading.BenM said:UKIP fading?
Good.
This election's looking a 2-horse race: Cons v Lab. Scotland's an interesting sideshow that only comes into play if Lab are just south of an outright maj.
2 party politics returns to Britain?
[Irony is, the 2 parties may collect less vote share than ever before. It's just that the 'minor' parties aren't going to scoop seats if this goes on. Spread too thinly. Thats our voting system for you.]
Honestly my feeling is that people aren't doing enough to take into account the uncertainty added by the debates, especially with them so close to the election. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Miliband v Cameron led to a 2% bump one way or the other on polling day.0 -
Hmm. The key is not to simply be more efficient but to be more efficient than Labour. The Tory>Lab swing in these seats is lower than the national average. That means it must be higher elsewhere.DavidL said:These polls if true are yet more compelling evidence for the increased efficiency of the Tory vote in 2015 compared to 2010. Winning seats by smallish margins is Labour's trick and the Tories are now managing it. If the Tories and Labour poll anything like 2010 they will gain seats.
Of course I still expect Labour to poll better than 2010, at least in England.
How can both Lab and Tory be more voter efficient? Because Ukip is going to pile up a ton of votes and virtually no MPs. Newsnight reckoned last night that the Tories could get a majority with 38% of the vote now. For Labour it was 36%. If it weren't for the dastardly SNP perhaps it would be 33%.0 -
Mr. Bear, there were 'likes', long ago. I think there was a corresponding 'dislike', and there was a bit of tetchiness, alas. That was, it must be said, under a different system of commenting, however.
So, odds on a Greek exit? Or will the eurozone force the Germans out instead?
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Kicking a black man off a train is a "minor infringement?" Gosh. Do you think Mandela would agree?Roger said:thought for the day re being expelled for being racist at Millfield. If this 21 year old is found to be one of those responsible for kicking the black man off the train there is no doubt his career will be blighted for what amounts to a minor infringement . He will probably be forever tarred. At Millfield two boys were expelled for improper conduct with each other. One went on to have a successful career in public life and is reasonably well known. If this part of his past was now known I'm sure he would get nothing but sympathy.
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The weighting adjustments are interesting. In three of the four polls more people chose UKIP than any other party. The odd one out was NE Cambridgeshire where both weighted and unweighted the Tories are ahead.
In the poll for Boston the weightings boosted the Tory figure by 4 points at the expense of UKIP whose figures were shrunk by four points. UKIP had a 5 point advantage in the raw figures.
In the Castlepoint poll the Tories were boosted by 3 and UKIPs figure shrank by two by the weightings. UKIP had a 3 point advantage in the raw figures
In the Basildon poll UKIP had a marginal lead by a couple of people in the raw figures with the weightings boosting the Tories by three points and shrinking UKIPs share by 2 points.
The situation in those seats would seem to rest on how much in these uniquely interesting times the weighting presumptions from previous elections still apply.....0 -
What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?Richard_Nabavi said:On the question of possible tactical voting by Labour supporters in seats which appear to be Con/UKIP battles, we have to be careful not to assume that the Labour supporters form a monolithic block who are likely to behave in a uniform way. At the risk of over-simplifying, we can consider two types of Labour voter:
- Traditional WWC Labour voters, more likely to be in socio-economic classes C1/C2 or DE, worried about immigration, possibly working in the public sector in lowish-paid jobs, typically Sun or Mirror readers. These are voters potentially likely to be tempted by UKIP, and , even if they'd prefer a Labour MPS, might therefore be susceptible to tactical voting for the UKIP candidate.
- Liberal-left voters, academics, more highly-paid public sector workers, Guardian or Indy readers, very concerned about racisim and very suspicious that Farage's anti-immigration stance is racist. Such voters might be tempted, if Labour couldn't win in their seat, to hold their noses and vote Tory as the lesser of two evils.
Whether one of these effects happens will depend on the seat and on the UKIP candidate - for example, in Newark, there was definitely anti-UKIP tactical voting, but in Rochester & Strood there may have been anti-Tory tactical voting. Indeed you might get both effects simultaneously in a given seat.0 -
Every seat Labour wins in one-party Liverpool or Manchester or Newcastle is a missed Gloucester or Worcester or Chester...FrankBooth said:
Hmm. The key is not to simply be more efficient but to be more efficient than Labour. The Tory>Lab swing in these seats is lower than the national average. That means it must be higher elsewhere.DavidL said:These polls if true are yet more compelling evidence for the increased efficiency of the Tory vote in 2015 compared to 2010. Winning seats by smallish margins is Labour's trick and the Tories are now managing it. If the Tories and Labour poll anything like 2010 they will gain seats.
Of course I still expect Labour to poll better than 2010, at least in England.
How can both Lab and Tory be more voter efficient? Because Ukip is going to pile up a ton of votes and virtually no MPs. Newsnight reckoned last night that the Tories could get a majority with 38% of the vote now. For Labour it was 36%. If it weren't for the dastardly SNP perhaps it would be 33%.
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By the way, it is NW Cambs that Ukip are strongest in... Strange that lord Ashcroft polled North East0
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No big thing.Ishmael_X said:
Kicking a black man off a train is a "minor infringement?" Gosh. Do you think Mandela would agree?Roger said:thought for the day re being expelled for being racist at Millfield. If this 21 year old is found to be one of those responsible for kicking the black man off the train there is no doubt his career will be blighted for what amounts to a minor infringement . He will probably be forever tarred. At Millfield two boys were expelled for improper conduct with each other. One went on to have a successful career in public life and is reasonably well known. If this part of his past was now known I'm sure he would get nothing but sympathy.
In 1960's Alabama maybe....
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Nobody knows what Britain wants, they're all over the place.
Disagree.
I'm sure Merkel knows exactly what powers Cameron needs to get back the UKIP voters he needs for power.
He's told her often enough.0 -
Strange to me that you think these polls are bad for Ukip. They are in front on unweighted numbers in seats that have never been polled by this pollster beforeTissue_Price said:Tories worth a punt in Great Yarmouth (7/4) off the back of these polls?
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Off topic - why is the word "coalition" constantly banded about by all and sundry including in the print and broadcast media. Just because we've had one doesn't mean we're due another "arrangement" would be a far better word.0
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BBC piece on Germany and Greece:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31532755
Headline, from Germany, is telling. It asks whether the Greeks or Germans or more dangerous for us [the Germans].0 -
One of the features of the seats where UKIP have done well is that the Traditional WWC Labour voters would invariably heavily outnumber any urban liberal typesisam said:
What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?Richard_Nabavi said:On the question of possible tactical voting by Labour supporters in seats which appear to be Con/UKIP battles, we have to be careful not to assume that the Labour supporters form a monolithic block who are likely to behave in a uniform way. At the risk of over-simplifying, we can consider two types of Labour voter:
- Traditional WWC Labour voters, more likely to be in socio-economic classes C1/C2 or DE, worried about immigration, possibly working in the public sector in lowish-paid jobs, typically Sun or Mirror readers. These are voters potentially likely to be tempted by UKIP, and , even if they'd prefer a Labour MPS, might therefore be susceptible to tactical voting for the UKIP candidate.
- Liberal-left voters, academics, more highly-paid public sector workers, Guardian or Indy readers, very concerned about racisim and very suspicious that Farage's anti-immigration stance is racist. Such voters might be tempted, if Labour couldn't win in their seat, to hold their noses and vote Tory as the lesser of two evils.
Whether one of these effects happens will depend on the seat and on the UKIP candidate - for example, in Newark, there was definitely anti-UKIP tactical voting, but in Rochester & Strood there may have been anti-Tory tactical voting. Indeed you might get both effects simultaneously in a given seat.0 -
It would then be called "ze pount" surely.MarqueeMark said:Germany should do the sensible thing. Get out the of Euro.
And adopt the pound.0 -
Probably mainly the first category, but Thurrock looks as though it might have a reasonable number of the second.isam said:What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
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Really, really looking forward to Ed's next big set-piece interview. There's so much hypocrisy to cover.Scott_P said:
So Margate Hodge attacks PwC.TCPoliticalBetting said:Probably a gift in staff time. How can they be given back? Withdraw labour? Send a bill to them? Labour to pay PWC?
Ed says in the HoC he has not taken a penny from any "dodgy" donors.
Today Labour have said the PwC donation is fine so they are not giving it back.
Awesome
Pop-corn time. (Is it appropriate to eat pop-corn whilst watching a car wreck?)
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Maybe his canvassers went to the wrong constituency.isam said:By the way, it is NW Cambs that Ukip are strongest in... Strange that lord Ashcroft polled North East
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That would be an end to free movement. Which they will never agree to.taffys said:Nobody knows what Britain wants, they're all over the place.
Disagree.
I'm sure Merkel knows exactly what powers Cameron needs to get back the UKIP voters he needs for power.
He's told her often enough.0 -
You can't have ever been to Thurrock!!Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably mainly the first category, but Thurrock looks as though it might have a reasonable number of the second.isam said:What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
It's at the bottom or my road, one if the main reasons I backed Ukip at 16/1 in Thurrock last year was because the demographic is v similar to that of goodhays in havering which Ukip won in the council elections... Believe me it is not a lefty liberal place, I can't think of anywhere less so0 -
Remind me how that worked out :-)frpenkridge said:
The Greek bus is hanging over cliff. Tsipras is saying "Hang on a minute, lads. I've got a great idea".Floater said:Have the Germans just thrown Greece under the bus?
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Thurrock as well as having... Tilbury... also has the wonderful village of Orsett.Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably mainly the first category, but Thurrock looks as though it might have a reasonable number of the second.isam said:What of those category of labour voters do you think live in thurrock/Basildon?
Grays is somewhere in the middle.0
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