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The high point of the Sir Olly Robbins testimony – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    edited April 21

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    I'd love to see the highs and lows either side of those medians.
    https://x.com/i/status/2046508616606236754
    Linked here MM

    More in Common Locals Seat Projection Scenarios:

    Low Estimate:
    Reform: +1,273
    Green: +573
    Lib Dem: +148
    Labour: -1,867
    Conservative: -692

    Middle Estimate:
    Reform: +1,437
    Green: +926
    Lib Dem: +327
    Labour: -1,738
    Conservative: -627

    High Estimate:
    Green: +1,741
    Reform: +1,603
    Lib Dem: +503
    Labour: -1,597
    Conservative: -368

    Source:
    @Moreincommon_
    May 7 Briefing

    https://moreincommon.org.uk/media/p43ake24/2026-elections-deck-2.pdf
    Great night for Green and Reform expected, but the Green estimate range from brilliant to mind-numbingly brilliant.

    The Tories might have a somewhat better than abject night but any kind of negative number, which is surely inevitable, will be seen as massively poor even if technically it could be worse.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,527
    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On a side issue, where does this leave Lee Anderson?

    He called SKS a liar in the Commons, and it turns out that the details were withheld by Robbins.

    He got his social media clip and proved how 'tough' and 'no-nonsense' he is, why would he care about that?
    There is something there about conduct in the Commons and a problem with the Good Chap expectation.

    I'm still musing about how to hold to accounts Lords who lie in the House, which comes down to "challenge the individual".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    International oil prices approached $100 a barrel this afternoon after Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Pakistan was put on hold. The price has soared since the U.S.-Israelli strikes on Iran began in late February, only to come back down when the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that is now set to expire soon.

    NY Times blog

  • TazTaz Posts: 28,160

    International oil prices approached $100 a barrel this afternoon after Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Pakistan was put on hold. The price has soared since the U.S.-Israelli strikes on Iran began in late February, only to come back down when the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that is now set to expire soon.

    NY Times blog

    On Twitter it’s saying he’s going tomorrow now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809

    International oil prices approached $100 a barrel this afternoon after Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Pakistan was put on hold. The price has soared since the U.S.-Israelli strikes on Iran began in late February, only to come back down when the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that is now set to expire soon.

    NY Times blog

    Trump: It's all good

    Markets: Phew, what a relief.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,141

    Front pages are going to be a blood bath for Starmer tonight.

    Good and well deserved.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874
    carnforth said:

    MattW said:

    On a side issue, where does this leave Lee Anderson?

    He called SKS a liar in the Commons, and it turns out that the details were withheld by Robbins.

    As did Zarah Sultana. They deserve each other.
    That would be fine if they had each other.

    Unfortunately, all of us have both of them.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    Taz said:

    International oil prices approached $100 a barrel this afternoon after Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Pakistan was put on hold. The price has soared since the U.S.-Israelli strikes on Iran began in late February, only to come back down when the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that is now set to expire soon.

    NY Times blog

    On Twitter it’s saying he’s going tomorrow now.
    Delaying by a day against market expectations allows the Trump Crime Family a great chance to make another few tens of millions in trading. TDS me all you like, but that is what is happening.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,200
    kle4 said:

    "Just as the NHS is a prime reason for pride in Britain"

    Polly Toynbee - today's Guardian



    "During his evidence on Tuesday, April 21, Dr Malik was asked if he had ever felt pressure to not admit a [acute mental health crisis] patient or to discharge them early because of a lack of the availability of beds.

    He said he had not personally made such a decision but was aware of “15, 18, 20 people” waiting for a bed for “days and weeks”.

    This included patients who had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act, he said.

    “People go on the bed list and, if there is no bed, then if they are in an acute hospital they remain there which is not ideal, and if they are in the care home or even in the community they will remain there.

    Dr Malik said there have been times where patients have been sent to places as far away as Scotland but “sometimes there is no bed”. "


    Dr Malik giving evidence to the public inquiry on Calocane killings in Nottingham

    I just don't understand the NHS being the prime reason for pride - I like to have it, but it doesn't seem to be particularly excellent as far as Western health systems go? If others have better outcomes what is the best way to copy that?
    Totally agree. It's as if people don't have healthcare in say France or Germany.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,818
    nico67 said:

    How much sway do these advisers have ?

    Don’t PMs have their own mind and Starmer could have simply said no , not happening .

    He could have made a political appointment from a choice of quite a few candidates who weren’t didn’t have the baggage of Mandelson .

    I’m not a fan of Osborne but he certainly wouldn’t have shamed the country .

    Karen Pierce seemed fine unless, and I suspect this is reality, Starmer and McSweeney thought a friend of Epstein would be just the ticket to manage Trump. That being the case that is a more compelling argument in favour of Mandelson that showering everyone else with shit when it blew up.
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230
    Making a comment that ages as badly as this should henceforth be known as ‘making a complete Dunt of yourself’

    Power suits Starmer, as expected. Looks comfortable, relaxed, in charge. Doesn't have that hint of frustration and anxiety he had as opposition leader.

    https://x.com/iandunt/status/1809559503865512332?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323

    nico67 said:

    How much sway do these advisers have ?

    Don’t PMs have their own mind and Starmer could have simply said no , not happening .

    He could have made a political appointment from a choice of quite a few candidates who weren’t didn’t have the baggage of Mandelson .

    I’m not a fan of Osborne but he certainly wouldn’t have shamed the country .

    Karen Pierce seemed fine unless, and I suspect this is reality, Starmer and McSweeney thought a friend of Epstein would be just the ticket to manage Trump. That being the case that is a more compelling argument in favour of Mandelson that showering everyone else with shit when it blew up.
    Of course Starmer can’t publicly say that but we all know that’s the reason .

    Trump apparently wanted Pierce to stay on so clearly got on well with her . So why the rush to get rid of her ?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    isam said:

    Making a comment that ages as badly as this should henceforth be known as ‘making a complete Dunt of yourself’

    Power suits Starmer, as expected. Looks comfortable, relaxed, in charge. Doesn't have that hint of frustration and anxiety he had as opposition leader.

    https://x.com/iandunt/status/1809559503865512332?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    He looked relaxed and in charge literally one day after becoming PM, before any issues had a chance to arise? I for one am profoundly shocked.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    Looks like Starmer was right to get rid of McSweeney when he did
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,547

    kle4 said:

    "Just as the NHS is a prime reason for pride in Britain"

    Polly Toynbee - today's Guardian



    "During his evidence on Tuesday, April 21, Dr Malik was asked if he had ever felt pressure to not admit a [acute mental health crisis] patient or to discharge them early because of a lack of the availability of beds.

    He said he had not personally made such a decision but was aware of “15, 18, 20 people” waiting for a bed for “days and weeks”.

    This included patients who had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act, he said.

    “People go on the bed list and, if there is no bed, then if they are in an acute hospital they remain there which is not ideal, and if they are in the care home or even in the community they will remain there.

    Dr Malik said there have been times where patients have been sent to places as far away as Scotland but “sometimes there is no bed”. "


    Dr Malik giving evidence to the public inquiry on Calocane killings in Nottingham

    I just don't understand the NHS being the prime reason for pride - I like to have it, but it doesn't seem to be particularly excellent as far as Western health systems go? If others have better outcomes what is the best way to copy that?
    Totally agree. It's as if people don't have healthcare in say France or Germany.
    Remember, most people in the UK only travel abroad for holidays. They don't interact will foreign health services much and seemed surprised that they exist, when they do use them.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,818
    Roger said:

    Front pages are going to be a blood bath for Starmer tonight.

    Good and well deserved.
    The Guardian article would appear to have been factually inaccurate but No 10 made it a million times worse than it needed to be. No 10 communications are shockingly chaotic, probably because No 10 is operated under chaotic conditions.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    isam said:

    Making a comment that ages as badly as this should henceforth be known as ‘making a complete Dunt of yourself’

    Power suits Starmer, as expected. Looks comfortable, relaxed, in charge. Doesn't have that hint of frustration and anxiety he had as opposition leader.

    https://x.com/iandunt/status/1809559503865512332?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    There are a plethora of comments from MPs saying the appointment of Mandelson was the way to go . Most notably from Farage !
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,885

    nico67 said:

    How much sway do these advisers have ?

    Don’t PMs have their own mind and Starmer could have simply said no , not happening .

    He could have made a political appointment from a choice of quite a few candidates who weren’t didn’t have the baggage of Mandelson .

    I’m not a fan of Osborne but he certainly wouldn’t have shamed the country .

    Karen Pierce seemed fine unless, and I suspect this is reality, Starmer and McSweeney thought a friend of Epstein would be just the ticket to manage Trump. That being the case that is a more compelling argument in favour of Mandelson that showering everyone else with shit when it blew up.
    It’s amazing how Starmer will pontificate about how we must think of the victims of Epstein whilst they were happy to cynically use a friend of Epstein for their base political advantage.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,141
    carnforth said:

    MattW said:

    On a side issue, where does this leave Lee Anderson?

    He called SKS a liar in the Commons, and it turns out that the details were withheld by Robbins.

    As did Zarah Sultana. They deserve each other.
    Her intervention last night was about as ugly as it gets. Hopefully it will get replayed ad infinitum and she will become a footnote of someone who thought they were going to become somebody
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,818
    HYUFD said:

    Looks like Starmer was right to get rid of McSweeney when he did

    Where does the buck stop? Sadly for Starmer, not with McSweeney.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    kle4 said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    I'd love to see the highs and lows either side of those medians.
    https://x.com/i/status/2046508616606236754
    Linked here MM

    More in Common Locals Seat Projection Scenarios:

    Low Estimate:
    Reform: +1,273
    Green: +573
    Lib Dem: +148
    Labour: -1,867
    Conservative: -692

    Middle Estimate:
    Reform: +1,437
    Green: +926
    Lib Dem: +327
    Labour: -1,738
    Conservative: -627

    High Estimate:
    Green: +1,741
    Reform: +1,603
    Lib Dem: +503
    Labour: -1,597
    Conservative: -368

    Source:
    @Moreincommon_
    May 7 Briefing

    https://moreincommon.org.uk/media/p43ake24/2026-elections-deck-2.pdf
    Great night for Green and Reform expected, but the Green estimate range from brilliant to mind-numbingly brilliant.

    The Tories might have a somewhat better than abject night but any kind of negative number, which is surely inevitable, will be seen as massively poor even if technically it could be worse.
    The key for Kemi and Starmer is they both need to see their partoes win more seats than the other. Reform will likely win most seats, the Greens will make gains but still probably battle the LDs for fourth on seats so whichever of Labour or the Conservatives come third on seats will likely see their leader gone by the summer
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    How much sway do these advisers have ?

    Don’t PMs have their own mind and Starmer could have simply said no , not happening .

    He could have made a political appointment from a choice of quite a few candidates who weren’t didn’t have the baggage of Mandelson .

    I’m not a fan of Osborne but he certainly wouldn’t have shamed the country .

    Karen Pierce seemed fine unless, and I suspect this is reality, Starmer and McSweeney thought a friend of Epstein would be just the ticket to manage Trump. That being the case that is a more compelling argument in favour of Mandelson that showering everyone else with shit when it blew up.
    Of course Starmer can’t publicly say that but we all know that’s the reason .

    Trump apparently wanted Pierce to stay on so clearly got on well with her . So why the rush to get rid of her ?

    Mandelson wasn't appointed to get on well with Trump but to manage him, especially on trade. The UK did get better deals than most of the rest of the world last year.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    kle4 said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    I'd love to see the highs and lows either side of those medians.
    https://x.com/i/status/2046508616606236754
    Linked here MM

    More in Common Locals Seat Projection Scenarios:

    Low Estimate:
    Reform: +1,273
    Green: +573
    Lib Dem: +148
    Labour: -1,867
    Conservative: -692

    Middle Estimate:
    Reform: +1,437
    Green: +926
    Lib Dem: +327
    Labour: -1,738
    Conservative: -627

    High Estimate:
    Green: +1,741
    Reform: +1,603
    Lib Dem: +503
    Labour: -1,597
    Conservative: -368

    Source:
    @Moreincommon_
    May 7 Briefing

    https://moreincommon.org.uk/media/p43ake24/2026-elections-deck-2.pdf
    Great night for Green and Reform expected, but the Green estimate range from brilliant to mind-numbingly brilliant.

    The Tories might have a somewhat better than abject night but any kind of negative number, which is surely inevitable, will be seen as massively poor even if technically it could be worse.
    The key for Kemi and Starmer is they both need to see their partoes win more seats than the other. Reform will likely win most seats, the Greens will make gains but still probably battle the LDs for fourth on seats so whichever of Labour or the Conservatives come third on seats will likely see their leader gone by the summer
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,593

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    Lolbour party.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,226
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reports of a major incident on Moscow’s underground metro. Possibly a tunnel collapse.

    https://x.com/albafella1/status/2046572560649691200

    Keeping up with the maintenance I see…

    Blame it on Ukraine/NATO to justify a full mobilisation?
    That has to be a worry.
    Except reports are it was a train derailment and everything is back to normal
    Did social media get carried away over nothing?
    Sounds like a few Moscovites thought it was the end of the World.
    Moscovites are very much on edge. They are waiting on the big Ukrainian drone barrage on their hospitals, schools, markets, tower blocks.
    And Ukraine aren’t attacking civilians while there are still economic interests to destroy because Ukraine wants to retain the moral high ground.
    I don't think that's the only reason. It's also more effective to hit the economic (and military) targets.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,354

    rkrkrk said:

    No 10 denies putting pressure on the FCDO. But admits to repeatedly asking for updates. Which if you have ever worked in the civil service you would understand means pressure.

    (Hell, in the private sector, if the CEO's office kept asking you for updates on a project you were working on, you would regard that as pressure, if not a direct threat)

    Civil servants are supposed to speak truth to power. Good ones stand up to pressure. Apparently Philip Barton did this to insist on vetting.
    Insisting on vetting was silly, all parties knew Mandelson couldn't pass unless vetting was either incompetent or dodgy itself. So if its that important just insist Mandelson can't be appointed or you will resign and make it an issue.

    Perhaps the correct thing would have been for the FO to simply publicly confirm the appointment was political, owned fully by Starmer and not subject to vetting.
    Well exactly. You get it in writing that you recommended x and no. 10/Lammy overruled. Thats standard procedure.

    What you dont do is overrule the advice without reading it and then fail to inform ministers that you have done so.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,818
    boulay said:

    nico67 said:

    How much sway do these advisers have ?

    Don’t PMs have their own mind and Starmer could have simply said no , not happening .

    He could have made a political appointment from a choice of quite a few candidates who weren’t didn’t have the baggage of Mandelson .

    I’m not a fan of Osborne but he certainly wouldn’t have shamed the country .

    Karen Pierce seemed fine unless, and I suspect this is reality, Starmer and McSweeney thought a friend of Epstein would be just the ticket to manage Trump. That being the case that is a more compelling argument in favour of Mandelson that showering everyone else with shit when it blew up.
    It’s amazing how Starmer will pontificate about how we must think of the victims of Epstein whilst they were happy to cynically use a friend of Epstein for their base political advantage.
    Starmer doesn't give a flying f*** about the victims of Epstein and *****, who does? His apology to them yesterday was therefore cynical. If he cared he wouldn't have organised the second state visit. His sole interest was and is UK-US trade.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,141

    There is an argument that suggests Starmer really should do an Amber Rudd and resign on principle.

    Starmer cocked up, Starmer should resign. I think I am more enraged by the knee -jerk sacking of Robbins than by the original appointment of Mandelson.

    Me too. I think everyone is. What he's done is unforgivable. He's a wretched little man
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,593

    https://x.com/danbloom1/status/2046608643735306751

    NEW: Morgan McSweeney has told POLITICO he did not call former Foreign Office chief Philip Barton directly, or swear at him, over the appointment of Peter Mandelson

    It comes after Emily Thornberry asked Olly Robbins if McSweeney had rung Barton to say "just fucking approve it"

    That just means he asked someone to put him through and he swore at him in general.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    the likelihood of talks commencing in Pakistan remain low.

    https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2046652729947197863
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,547

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reports of a major incident on Moscow’s underground metro. Possibly a tunnel collapse.

    https://x.com/albafella1/status/2046572560649691200

    Keeping up with the maintenance I see…

    Blame it on Ukraine/NATO to justify a full mobilisation?
    That has to be a worry.
    Except reports are it was a train derailment and everything is back to normal
    Did social media get carried away over nothing?
    Sounds like a few Moscovites thought it was the end of the World.
    Moscovites are very much on edge. They are waiting on the big Ukrainian drone barrage on their hospitals, schools, markets, tower blocks.
    And Ukraine aren’t attacking civilians while there are still economic interests to destroy because Ukraine wants to retain the moral high ground.
    I don't think that's the only reason. It's also more effective to hit the economic (and military) targets.
    If you have the ability to hit precision targets, then randomly slapping cities is an expensive waste of ammunition.

    Ironically, the ludicrous inaccuracy of bombing at the start of WWII prevented the exploitation of precision weapons later. Oboe equipped Mosquitos were achieving smart bomb accuracies on Germany in late 1944. They were taking out individual blast furnaces from 30,000 feet. If the same technology had been pushed against oil production and transport, en masse, it would have brought Germany to a halt months earlier.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,818
    edited April 21
    Leon said:

    Starmer is a c***

    Where did anyone get the idea that he’s “a nice man”??!

    He really really isn’t. He is utterly selfish and happy to lie to save his arse, or to sack his friends and aides to do the same

    It’s really quite depressing that such a weird and unpleasant prick has become PM. At least Boris was genuinely funny

    Edgy!

    Good first three paragraphs A++. Final sentence of the last paragraph is utter rubbish, an F I am afraid.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    No 10 denies putting pressure on the FCDO. But admits to repeatedly asking for updates. Which if you have ever worked in the civil service you would understand means pressure.

    (Hell, in the private sector, if the CEO's office kept asking you for updates on a project you were working on, you would regard that as pressure, if not a direct threat)

    Civil servants are supposed to speak truth to power. Good ones stand up to pressure. Apparently Philip Barton did this to insist on vetting.
    Insisting on vetting was silly, all parties knew Mandelson couldn't pass unless vetting was either incompetent or dodgy itself. So if its that important just insist Mandelson can't be appointed or you will resign and make it an issue.

    Perhaps the correct thing would have been for the FO to simply publicly confirm the appointment was political, owned fully by Starmer and not subject to vetting.
    Well exactly. You get it in writing that you recommended x and no. 10/Lammy overruled. Thats standard procedure.

    What you dont do is overrule the advice without reading it and then fail to inform ministers that you have done so.
    That is the way you rise through the ranks with the protection of a big pay off and job in the private sector if it goes wrong - do the dirty work for the big boss without making them accountable and hiding behind process to protect yourself just enough to get the payout.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    Leon said:

    Starmer is a c***

    Where did anyone get the idea that he’s “a nice man”??!

    He really really isn’t. He is utterly selfish and happy to lie to save his arse, or to sack his friends and aides to do the same

    It’s really quite depressing that such a weird and unpleasant prick has become PM. At least Boris was genuinely funny

    On the last point - yes. If we are to have a terrible person as PM let's at least have a few laughs and bonkers metaphors along the way!

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,146

    kle4 said:

    "Just as the NHS is a prime reason for pride in Britain"

    Polly Toynbee - today's Guardian



    "During his evidence on Tuesday, April 21, Dr Malik was asked if he had ever felt pressure to not admit a [acute mental health crisis] patient or to discharge them early because of a lack of the availability of beds.

    He said he had not personally made such a decision but was aware of “15, 18, 20 people” waiting for a bed for “days and weeks”.

    This included patients who had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act, he said.

    “People go on the bed list and, if there is no bed, then if they are in an acute hospital they remain there which is not ideal, and if they are in the care home or even in the community they will remain there.

    Dr Malik said there have been times where patients have been sent to places as far away as Scotland but “sometimes there is no bed”. "


    Dr Malik giving evidence to the public inquiry on Calocane killings in Nottingham

    I just don't understand the NHS being the prime reason for pride - I like to have it, but it doesn't seem to be particularly excellent as far as Western health systems go? If others have better outcomes what is the best way to copy that?
    Totally agree. It's as if people don't have healthcare in say France or Germany.
    Remember, most people in the UK only travel abroad for holidays. They don't interact will foreign health services much and seemed surprised that they exist, when they do use them.
    The best way to achieve the standards of better European health systems would be spend as much per capita as they do. Though we'd probably need to spend more to start with to catch up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,959
    isam said:

    Making a comment that ages as badly as this should henceforth be known as ‘making a complete Dunt of yourself’

    Power suits Starmer, as expected. Looks comfortable, relaxed, in charge. Doesn't have that hint of frustration and anxiety he had as opposition leader.

    https://x.com/iandunt/status/1809559503865512332?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Jolly nice suits paid for by Lord Ali.....
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,687
    Evening all :)

    I wonder whether the advent of the "Chief of Staff" position has complicated matters somewhat. I saw this in the latter days of my local Government career where every Head of Dervice had a Chief of Staff who was part rottweiler, part gatekeeperand the main contact with the rest of the Service leaving the Head to schmooze with the Cabinet Member.

    There's the additional layer of relationship the Chief of Staff beings - if you want to have access to the Head of Service, you have to be well in with the Chief of Staff and if you have a poor relationship with the Chief of Staff, your influence is much reduced.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    The public don't get to choose.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/02/keir-starmer-wes-streeting-leadership-survation-poll/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    Dopermean said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Shocking. My sympathies to you and all at the school.
    Sincere condolences to all affected and it is a relevant issue to the wider world, at times we are all vulnerable road users, if not cyclists then pedestrians

    Sadly hit and run of vulnerable road users is all too common
    https://road.cc/news/zero-arrests-from-106-hit-and-runs-on-cyclists-in-london-last-year-as-cycling-campaigners-slam-completely-unacceptable-figures
    Even if cyclists and motorcyclists are significantly more likely to be killed or injured on roads than those in cars it is still obviously sad when fatalities occur. Including the headteacher at Cookie's daughter's school. Certainly no excuse for drivers doing a hit and run who should be prosecuted with the full force of the law
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,430
    Roger said:

    There is an argument that suggests Starmer really should do an Amber Rudd and resign on principle.

    Starmer cocked up, Starmer should resign. I think I am more enraged by the knee -jerk sacking of Robbins than by the original appointment of Mandelson.

    Me too. I think everyone is. What he's done is unforgivable. He's a wretched little man
    Agree. There is a littleness about the combination of actions from the appointment of PeterM to yesterday which is troubling, with the defenestration of Robbins and yesterday's essay in process and blame transferring a final set of nails.

    Yet I think he might survive. Nothing can be known until after 7th May. Then the issue will be a further combination of events. How does the media/politics circus play out over the PeterM affair and how dire is 7th May obviously. But the third factor is that Starmer is probably the best available Labour candidate for PM as of today. That Burnham is being cried up as the new messiah tells it all. Not an MP, a Labour luminary much more than a nationally significant statesman and, I suggest, a vote loser outside the north.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,687

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    Lolbour party.
    I'm afraid like all the other "predictions" I've seen, More in Common haven't really picked up on the local undercurrents and have tried to use national or regional sub sample Westminster VI polling mixed with local by-elections to paint a picture.

    They don't mention the Newham Independentrs and claim the Greens will make big gains in Newham -here's a clue, they won't. I' dbe susprised if the seat number changes were as large as stated above.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880

    New Senedd Poll from YouGov f/w 6-15 April

    @YouGov have released their latest Senedd election prediction poll with @cardiffuni and @ITVCymruWales:

    Reform UK - 29% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru - 29% (-4)
    Labour - 13% (=)
    Green - 10% (-2)
    Conservatives - 8% (+1)
    Lib Dems - 6% (+1)
    Other - 4% (-1)

    Late surge for Reform in Wales
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    The public don't get to choose.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/02/keir-starmer-wes-streeting-leadership-survation-poll/
    You would think party members would have one eye on public popularity though.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,234
    ...
    Dopermean said:

    kle4 said:

    "Just as the NHS is a prime reason for pride in Britain"

    Polly Toynbee - today's Guardian



    "During his evidence on Tuesday, April 21, Dr Malik was asked if he had ever felt pressure to not admit a [acute mental health crisis] patient or to discharge them early because of a lack of the availability of beds.

    He said he had not personally made such a decision but was aware of “15, 18, 20 people” waiting for a bed for “days and weeks”.

    This included patients who had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act, he said.

    “People go on the bed list and, if there is no bed, then if they are in an acute hospital they remain there which is not ideal, and if they are in the care home or even in the community they will remain there.

    Dr Malik said there have been times where patients have been sent to places as far away as Scotland but “sometimes there is no bed”. "


    Dr Malik giving evidence to the public inquiry on Calocane killings in Nottingham

    I just don't understand the NHS being the prime reason for pride - I like to have it, but it doesn't seem to be particularly excellent as far as Western health systems go? If others have better outcomes what is the best way to copy that?
    Totally agree. It's as if people don't have healthcare in say France or Germany.
    Remember, most people in the UK only travel abroad for holidays. They don't interact will foreign health services much and seemed surprised that they exist, when they do use them.
    The best way to achieve the standards of better European health systems would be spend as much per capita as they do. Though we'd probably need to spend more to start with to catch up.
    Is it?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,896

    isam said:

    Making a comment that ages as badly as this should henceforth be known as ‘making a complete Dunt of yourself’

    Power suits Starmer, as expected. Looks comfortable, relaxed, in charge. Doesn't have that hint of frustration and anxiety he had as opposition leader.

    https://x.com/iandunt/status/1809559503865512332?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Jolly nice suits paid for by Lord Ali.....
    Even his team are going to lose the league again.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,818
    edited April 21

    isam said:

    Making a comment that ages as badly as this should henceforth be known as ‘making a complete Dunt of yourself’

    Power suits Starmer, as expected. Looks comfortable, relaxed, in charge. Doesn't have that hint of frustration and anxiety he had as opposition leader.

    https://x.com/iandunt/status/1809559503865512332?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Jolly nice suits paid for by Lord Ali.....
    What a dreary comment.

    The man has demonstrated a particularly Johnsonian venality by sacking Robbins to save his own skin. I for one am disgusted.

    The suits don't compare.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,959
    edited April 21

    New Senedd Poll from YouGov f/w 6-15 April

    @YouGov have released their latest Senedd election prediction poll with @cardiffuni and @ITVCymruWales:

    Reform UK - 29% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru - 29% (-4)
    Labour - 13% (=)
    Green - 10% (-2)
    Conservatives - 8% (+1)
    Lib Dems - 6% (+1)
    Other - 4% (-1)

    There are parts of Wales where the only gay in the village out numbers the Tory and Lib Dem voters.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I wonder whether the advent of the "Chief of Staff" position has complicated matters somewhat. I saw this in the latter days of my local Government career where every Head of Dervice had a Chief of Staff who was part rottweiler, part gatekeeperand the main contact with the rest of the Service leaving the Head to schmooze with the Cabinet Member.

    There's the additional layer of relationship the Chief of Staff beings - if you want to have access to the Head of Service, you have to be well in with the Chief of Staff and if you have a poor relationship with the Chief of Staff, your influence is much reduced.

    Also, CofS does seem to be a honeypot for the kind of people who really shouldn't have that sort of role.

    Too much power, not enough responsibility.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    The public don't get to choose.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/02/keir-starmer-wes-streeting-leadership-survation-poll/
    You would think party members would have one eye on public popularity though.
    Corbyn? Truss? Nah, I wouldn't think that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,024
    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Shocking. My sympathies to you and all at the school.
    Sincere condolences to all affected and it is a relevant issue to the wider world, at times we are all vulnerable road users, if not cyclists then pedestrians

    Sadly hit and run of vulnerable road users is all too common
    https://road.cc/news/zero-arrests-from-106-hit-and-runs-on-cyclists-in-london-last-year-as-cycling-campaigners-slam-completely-unacceptable-figures
    Even if cyclists and motorcyclists are significantly more likely to be killed or injured on roads than those in cars it is still obviously sad when fatalities occur. Including the headteacher at Cookie's daughter's school. Certainly no excuse for drivers doing a hit and run who should be prosecuted with the full force of the law
    "Even if..." ?

    What on earth are you trying to say?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,818

    International oil prices approached $100 a barrel this afternoon after Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Pakistan was put on hold. The price has soared since the U.S.-Israelli strikes on Iran began in late February, only to come back down when the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that is now set to expire soon.

    NY Times blog

    Playing the spot markets might be a nice little tickle for Trump and his family.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,024

    ...

    Dopermean said:

    kle4 said:

    "Just as the NHS is a prime reason for pride in Britain"

    Polly Toynbee - today's Guardian



    "During his evidence on Tuesday, April 21, Dr Malik was asked if he had ever felt pressure to not admit a [acute mental health crisis] patient or to discharge them early because of a lack of the availability of beds.

    He said he had not personally made such a decision but was aware of “15, 18, 20 people” waiting for a bed for “days and weeks”.

    This included patients who had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act, he said.

    “People go on the bed list and, if there is no bed, then if they are in an acute hospital they remain there which is not ideal, and if they are in the care home or even in the community they will remain there.

    Dr Malik said there have been times where patients have been sent to places as far away as Scotland but “sometimes there is no bed”. "


    Dr Malik giving evidence to the public inquiry on Calocane killings in Nottingham

    I just don't understand the NHS being the prime reason for pride - I like to have it, but it doesn't seem to be particularly excellent as far as Western health systems go? If others have better outcomes what is the best way to copy that?
    Totally agree. It's as if people don't have healthcare in say France or Germany.
    Remember, most people in the UK only travel abroad for holidays. They don't interact will foreign health services much and seemed surprised that they exist, when they do use them.
    The best way to achieve the standards of better European health systems would be spend as much per capita as they do. Though we'd probably need to spend more to start with to catch up.
    Is it?
    How do you think we could achieve the standards of better European health systems without spending as much per capita as they do?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    The public don't get to choose.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/02/keir-starmer-wes-streeting-leadership-survation-poll/
    Not only that.

    Whoever comes next will have a humongous majority and, unlike Major or Brown, pretty much a blank slate, except for their internal election campaign.

    A shiny sixpence says that those who oppose Labour from the right, or from a Eurosceptic direction, aren't going to like it much.

    (One of the consequences of all those Conservative leadership elections, since 1997 really, has been a rightward drift as wannabes try to.ticklevthe tummy of the membership.)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,257
    edited April 21
    An analytic and forensic destruction of Kier Starmer from Kemi today

    Enjoy!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0m2x0KqKWO0
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    If that was the result in May Starmer and Kemi could be gone by the summer
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 581

    No 10 denies putting pressure on the FCDO. But admits to repeatedly asking for updates. Which if you have ever worked in the civil service you would understand means pressure.

    (Hell, in the private sector, if the CEO's office kept asking you for updates on a project you were working on, you would regard that as pressure, if not a direct threat)

    Jesus Christ No 10 is really clueless.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883
    https://x.com/LBC/status/2046648912174346567

    ‘Gossip has it, he had other candidates in mind…’

    Labour's Emily Thornberry explains why laying the Mandelson scandal at the feet of Keir Starmer ‘doesn’t actually make sense.’
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    The public don't get to choose.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/02/keir-starmer-wes-streeting-leadership-survation-poll/
    Not only that.

    Whoever comes next will have a humongous majority and, unlike Major or Brown, pretty much a blank slate, except for their internal election campaign.

    A shiny sixpence says that those who oppose Labour from the right, or from a Eurosceptic direction, aren't going to like it much.

    (One of the consequences of all those Conservative leadership elections, since 1997 really, has been a rightward drift as wannabes try to.ticklevthe tummy of the membership.)
    My instinct tells me that if Labour drift away from the platform they were elected on they will be signing their own death warrant.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,492
    Anecdotally, I was out walking in the Cotswolds near Uley this morning.

    Hell of a lot of traffic in and out of Fairford. Hard to imagine that the Yanks would be working their air transport that hard if Mango Mussolini wasn't planning to do more distraction from the CSA allegations against him bombing of Iran to stop them having a nuclear weapon that they don't have and have offered to not try and develop.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,234

    New Senedd Poll from YouGov f/w 6-15 April

    @YouGov have released their latest Senedd election prediction poll with @cardiffuni and @ITVCymruWales:

    Reform UK - 29% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru - 29% (-4)
    Labour - 13% (=)
    Green - 10% (-2)
    Conservatives - 8% (+1)
    Lib Dems - 6% (+1)
    Other - 4% (-1)

    There are parts of Wales where the only gay in the village out numbers the Tory and Lib Dem voters.
    I am a bit suspicious of this late Reform surge with Yougov. My questions are:
    1. Is it echoed by any other polling?
    2. Has Yougov made another change to their methodology?
    3. If the answer to one and two is "No" and "Yes", it looks to me like Yougov know that they have been under-scoring Reform, but the strategy has run out of road, and they now need to come back into line with other polling firms to avoid looking bad after the elections.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    The public don't get to choose.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/02/keir-starmer-wes-streeting-leadership-survation-poll/
    Not only that.

    Whoever comes next will have a humongous majority and, unlike Major or Brown, pretty much a blank slate, except for their internal election campaign.

    A shiny sixpence says that those who oppose Labour from the right, or from a Eurosceptic direction, aren't going to like it much.

    (One of the consequences of all those Conservative leadership elections, since 1997 really, has been a rightward drift as wannabes try to.ticklevthe tummy of the membership.)
    My instinct tells me that if Labour drift away from the platform they were elected on they will be signing their own death warrant.
    They were elected on not being the Tories......
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,687
    Leon said:

    Starmer is a c***

    Where did anyone get the idea that he’s “a nice man”??!

    He really really isn’t. He is utterly selfish and happy to lie to save his arse, or to sack his friends and aides to do the same

    It’s really quite depressing that such a weird and unpleasant prick has become PM. At least Boris was genuinely funny

    There are two reasons why he became Prime Minister - Jeremy Corbyn and the Conservatives.

    Starmer is the anti-Corbyn but instead of doing what Labour leaders are supposed to and spend their lives in Opposition staring at the Conservatives on the Govenrment benches, he had the temerity to win an election albeit aided and abetted by one of the biggest groups of incompetents and halfwits ever to grace the political universe, led by titans like Johnson, Truss and Sunak who presided over the near-destruction of one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.

    The only thing you can therefore argue Starmer had in spades up to July 2024 was luck.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958

    ...

    Dopermean said:

    kle4 said:

    "Just as the NHS is a prime reason for pride in Britain"

    Polly Toynbee - today's Guardian



    "During his evidence on Tuesday, April 21, Dr Malik was asked if he had ever felt pressure to not admit a [acute mental health crisis] patient or to discharge them early because of a lack of the availability of beds.

    He said he had not personally made such a decision but was aware of “15, 18, 20 people” waiting for a bed for “days and weeks”.

    This included patients who had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act, he said.

    “People go on the bed list and, if there is no bed, then if they are in an acute hospital they remain there which is not ideal, and if they are in the care home or even in the community they will remain there.

    Dr Malik said there have been times where patients have been sent to places as far away as Scotland but “sometimes there is no bed”. "


    Dr Malik giving evidence to the public inquiry on Calocane killings in Nottingham

    I just don't understand the NHS being the prime reason for pride - I like to have it, but it doesn't seem to be particularly excellent as far as Western health systems go? If others have better outcomes what is the best way to copy that?
    Totally agree. It's as if people don't have healthcare in say France or Germany.
    Remember, most people in the UK only travel abroad for holidays. They don't interact will foreign health services much and seemed surprised that they exist, when they do use them.
    The best way to achieve the standards of better European health systems would be spend as much per capita as they do. Though we'd probably need to spend more to start with to catch up.
    Is it?
    How do you think we could achieve the standards of better European health systems without spending as much per capita as they do?
    Oooh, I know this one! Efficiency savings. And cut DEI spending.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 581
    nico67 said:

    MattW said:

    On a side issue, where does this leave Lee Anderson?

    He called SKS a liar in the Commons, and it turns out that the details were withheld by Robbins.

    You’d be hard pressed to realize that from today’s media coverage. It’s been all about the so called pressure on the foreign office. The original charge against Starmer has been forgotten because Robbins gave an answer the media didn’t like .
    FFS. Don't you get it. Starmer didn't want to be told anything that stopped Mandelson . No way he'd have reversed the appointment. Time the stop pretending he's anything but a dud.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,492

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    The public don't get to choose.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/02/keir-starmer-wes-streeting-leadership-survation-poll/
    Not only that.

    Whoever comes next will have a humongous majority and, unlike Major or Brown, pretty much a blank slate, except for their internal election campaign.

    A shiny sixpence says that those who oppose Labour from the right, or from a Eurosceptic direction, aren't going to like it much.

    (One of the consequences of all those Conservative leadership elections, since 1997 really, has been a rightward drift as wannabes try to.ticklevthe tummy of the membership.)
    My instinct tells me that if Labour drift away from the platform they were elected on they will be signing their own death warrant.
    They were elected on not being the Tories......
    so you're saying, they've signed it already with the PIP/WFA farragos?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,818
    HYUFD said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    If that was the result in May Starmer and Kemi could be gone by the summer
    Starmer yes, but those losses aren't utterly terrible for Badenoch.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    ydoethur said:

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    The public don't get to choose.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/02/keir-starmer-wes-streeting-leadership-survation-poll/
    Not only that.

    Whoever comes next will have a humongous majority and, unlike Major or Brown, pretty much a blank slate, except for their internal election campaign.

    A shiny sixpence says that those who oppose Labour from the right, or from a Eurosceptic direction, aren't going to like it much.

    (One of the consequences of all those Conservative leadership elections, since 1997 really, has been a rightward drift as wannabes try to.ticklevthe tummy of the membership.)
    My instinct tells me that if Labour drift away from the platform they were elected on they will be signing their own death warrant.
    They were elected on not being the Tories......
    so you're saying, they've signed it already with the PIP/WFA farragos?
    They need to add in some public in fighting and scandals of course......
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789
    Leon said:

    Starmer is a c***

    Where did anyone get the idea that he’s “a nice man”??!

    He really really isn’t. He is utterly selfish and happy to lie to save his arse, or to sack his friends and aides to do the same

    It’s really quite depressing that such a weird and unpleasant prick has become PM. At least Boris was genuinely funny

    "With friends like these, who needs Yemenis?"
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,818
    ydoethur said:

    Anecdotally, I was out walking in the Cotswolds near Uley this morning.

    Hell of a lot of traffic in and out of Fairford. Hard to imagine that the Yanks would be working their air transport that hard if Mango Mussolini wasn't planning to do more distraction from the CSA allegations against him bombing of Iran to stop them having a nuclear weapon that they don't have and have offered to not try and develop.

    Apparently he's now keen on using the nuclear codes.

    Only Presidents wearing big boy diapers use nuclear codes.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    The public don't get to choose.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/02/keir-starmer-wes-streeting-leadership-survation-poll/
    Not only that.

    Whoever comes next will have a humongous majority and, unlike Major or Brown, pretty much a blank slate, except for their internal election campaign.

    A shiny sixpence says that those who oppose Labour from the right, or from a Eurosceptic direction, aren't going to like it much.

    (One of the consequences of all those Conservative leadership elections, since 1997 really, has been a rightward drift as wannabes try to.ticklevthe tummy of the membership.)
    No centrist/Blairite/realist Labour will want to run on those banners for sure, and given there is no money that doesn't leave much apart from being a rejoin candidate. So final two may be a Blairite type hiding under the EU flag vs a magic money tree leftie.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,704

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    The public don't get to choose.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/02/keir-starmer-wes-streeting-leadership-survation-poll/
    Not only that.

    Whoever comes next will have a humongous majority and, unlike Major or Brown, pretty much a blank slate, except for their internal election campaign.

    A shiny sixpence says that those who oppose Labour from the right, or from a Eurosceptic direction, aren't going to like it much.

    (One of the consequences of all those Conservative leadership elections, since 1997 really, has been a rightward drift as wannabes try to.ticklevthe tummy of the membership.)
    My instinct tells me that if Labour drift away from the platform they were elected on they will be signing their own death warrant.
    They were elected on not being the Tories......
    Even though they were to anyone with any nouse
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,027
    DavidL said:

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    You're asking the wrong question. The question is do Labour MPs rate her because they are the ones that get the important votes in this process. And the answer seems to be yes. She is happy to swear at Tories and they like that. She is better at pretending to care. She indulges their fantasies a little better.

    Personally, she strikes me as being very much in the Liz Truss class of PM, so far out of her depth that the shore is out of sight, but no one cares what I think. Its what the 400 MPs think that matters at this stage.
    It really depends on whether she can delegate effectively. Or have a right-hand man or woman (like Osbourne to Cameron or Brown to Blair) who drives policy direction.

    What is undoubtable at this point is she's better at politics than Starmer. Not necessarily governing or policy, though it's a low bar.

    I was of the view Labour should wait until 2028 and give Raynor a short run at the next election. Increasingly I think Starmer needs to go sooner and have an alternative period of actually governing under new leadership.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 581
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Making a comment that ages as badly as this should henceforth be known as ‘making a complete Dunt of yourself’

    Power suits Starmer, as expected. Looks comfortable, relaxed, in charge. Doesn't have that hint of frustration and anxiety he had as opposition leader.

    https://x.com/iandunt/status/1809559503865512332?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    He looked relaxed and in charge literally one day after becoming PM, before any issues had a chance to arise? I for one am profoundly shocked.
    Of course wasn't that when he was luxuriating in n free Y-Fronts and boxes at the football?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    The public don't get to choose.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/02/keir-starmer-wes-streeting-leadership-survation-poll/
    Not only that.

    Whoever comes next will have a humongous majority and, unlike Major or Brown, pretty much a blank slate, except for their internal election campaign.

    A shiny sixpence says that those who oppose Labour from the right, or from a Eurosceptic direction, aren't going to like it much.

    (One of the consequences of all those Conservative leadership elections, since 1997 really, has been a rightward drift as wannabes try to.ticklevthe tummy of the membership.)
    My instinct tells me that if Labour drift away from the platform they were elected on they will be signing their own death warrant.
    They were elected on not being the Tories......
    Even though they were to anyone with any nouse
    Hard to win a UK election without being what you'd consider Tories.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,492

    ydoethur said:

    Anecdotally, I was out walking in the Cotswolds near Uley this morning.

    Hell of a lot of traffic in and out of Fairford. Hard to imagine that the Yanks would be working their air transport that hard if Mango Mussolini wasn't planning to do more distraction from the CSA allegations against him bombing of Iran to stop them having a nuclear weapon that they don't have and have offered to not try and develop.

    Apparently he's now keen on using the nuclear codes.

    Only Presidents wearing big boy diapers use nuclear codes.
    Very true, man.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,593
    Rosie Duffield sussed out Starmer very early on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,492
    Apparently Mushroom Shaped has also been saying the Pope wants Iran to have nuclear weapons.

    I know he's not very bright, and I know he's got dementia, and I know he has the same relationship to the truth as the average solicitor acting for the Post Office, but what does he actually think he's going to gain by saying such utter nonsense?

    All he's doing is pissing off the Catholics.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,593
    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    That's utterly horrible.

    I'm so sorry @Cookie
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880

    HYUFD said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    If that was the result in May Starmer and Kemi could be gone by the summer
    Starmer yes, but those losses aren't utterly terrible for Badenoch.
    4th place behind Reform, the Greens and LDs would be terrible, most Tory MPs would not accept a leader who delivered that result
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    ydoethur said:

    Apparently Mushroom Shaped has also been saying the Pope wants Iran to have nuclear weapons.

    I know he's not very bright, and I know he's got dementia, and I know he has the same relationship to the truth as the average solicitor acting for the Post Office, but what does he actually think he's going to gain by saying such utter nonsense?

    All he's doing is pissing off the Catholics.

    Get on the news.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789
    edited April 21
    Cookie said:

    Thanks all for the kind words. I feel as if I shouldn't be feeling this bad about it - I couldn't really claim to know him personally - it just feels so bloody unfair.
    But pb is generous in its sympathies - many thanks.

    Sorry to hear about your child's headteacher, @Cookie
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,593
    Cyclefree said:

    From my experience far too many people treat procedures and processes as a substitute for judgment rather than as an aid to it. Big mistake.

    Judgment is like a muscle. If you don't use it every day, it won't be there when you most need it. As we can see with Starmer.

    Has Starmer ever used that muscle?
  • Rosie Duffield sussed out Starmer very early on.

    Sadly she has joined wholeheartedly in the toxic trans debate.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,922
    Ratters said:

    DavidL said:

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    You're asking the wrong question. The question is do Labour MPs rate her because they are the ones that get the important votes in this process. And the answer seems to be yes. She is happy to swear at Tories and they like that. She is better at pretending to care. She indulges their fantasies a little better.

    Personally, she strikes me as being very much in the Liz Truss class of PM, so far out of her depth that the shore is out of sight, but no one cares what I think. Its what the 400 MPs think that matters at this stage.
    It really depends on whether she can delegate effectively. Or have a right-hand man or woman (like Osbourne to Cameron or Brown to Blair) who drives policy direction.

    What is undoubtable at this point is she's better at politics than Starmer. Not necessarily governing or policy, though it's a low bar.

    I was of the view Labour should wait until 2028 and give Raynor a short run at the next election. Increasingly I think Starmer needs to go sooner and have an alternative period of actually governing under new leadership.
    Labour hasn't delivered any reason to vote for them in the past 2 years. So they need to remove SKS AND deliver a reason for people to vote for them (and not Reform) before the mid to late 2028....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    The public don't get to choose.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/02/keir-starmer-wes-streeting-leadership-survation-poll/
    Not only that.

    Whoever comes next will have a humongous majority and, unlike Major or Brown, pretty much a blank slate, except for their internal election campaign.

    A shiny sixpence says that those who oppose Labour from the right, or from a Eurosceptic direction, aren't going to like it much.

    (One of the consequences of all those Conservative leadership elections, since 1997 really, has been a rightward drift as wannabes try to.ticklevthe tummy of the membership.)
    My instinct tells me that if Labour drift away from the platform they were elected on they will be signing their own death warrant.
    They were elected on not being the Tories......
    Even though they were to anyone with any nouse
    Hard to win a UK election without being what you'd consider Tories.
    PB Tories.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,593
    Taz said:

    I’d imagine someone is enjoying SkS’s problems.


    If we find out that SKS was quite literally ambushed with a cake, then we'll really know it's all over.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    ydoethur said:

    Apparently Mushroom Shaped has also been saying the Pope wants Iran to have nuclear weapons.

    I know he's not very bright, and I know he's got dementia, and I know he has the same relationship to the truth as the average solicitor acting for the Post Office, but what does he actually think he's going to gain by saying such utter nonsense?

    All he's doing is pissing off the Catholics.

    He doesn't think of gain in such moments, he just lashes out.

    It's gotten him this far in life, but even he will run out of road eventually.

    Not soon enough to matter to him, but hopefully to matter to those who ride his coattails.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883
    ydoethur said:

    Apparently Mushroom Shaped has also been saying the Pope wants Iran to have nuclear weapons.

    I know he's not very bright, and I know he's got dementia, and I know he has the same relationship to the truth as the average solicitor acting for the Post Office, but what does he actually think he's going to gain by saying such utter nonsense?

    All he's doing is pissing off the Catholics.

    If the Pope wants to intervene in earthly politics then he should expect some pushback.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,492

    Taz said:

    I’d imagine someone is enjoying SkS’s problems.


    If we find out that SKS was quite literally ambushed with a cake, then we'll really know it's all over.
    I think Mandelson would count as being a borderline fruitcake.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,513
    kle4 said:

    "Just as the NHS is a prime reason for pride in Britain"

    Polly Toynbee - today's Guardian



    "During his evidence on Tuesday, April 21, Dr Malik was asked if he had ever felt pressure to not admit a [acute mental health crisis] patient or to discharge them early because of a lack of the availability of beds.

    He said he had not personally made such a decision but was aware of “15, 18, 20 people” waiting for a bed for “days and weeks”.

    This included patients who had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act, he said.

    “People go on the bed list and, if there is no bed, then if they are in an acute hospital they remain there which is not ideal, and if they are in the care home or even in the community they will remain there.

    Dr Malik said there have been times where patients have been sent to places as far away as Scotland but “sometimes there is no bed”. "


    Dr Malik giving evidence to the public inquiry on Calocane killings in Nottingham

    I just don't understand the NHS being the prime reason for pride - I like to have it, but it doesn't seem to be particularly excellent as far as Western health systems go? If others have better outcomes what is the best way to copy that?
    Well they they need a creation of the Attlee government and BR and the NCB are no longer around.

    And other things associated with Britain - castles, royals, countryside, wars, colonies, sports, writers - don't tend to be things they approve of.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Shocking. My sympathies to you and all at the school.
    Sincere condolences to all affected and it is a relevant issue to the wider world, at times we are all vulnerable road users, if not cyclists then pedestrians

    Sadly hit and run of vulnerable road users is all too common
    https://road.cc/news/zero-arrests-from-106-hit-and-runs-on-cyclists-in-london-last-year-as-cycling-campaigners-slam-completely-unacceptable-figures
    Even if cyclists and motorcyclists are significantly more likely to be killed or injured on roads than those in cars it is still obviously sad when fatalities occur. Including the headteacher at Cookie's daughter's school. Certainly no excuse for drivers doing a hit and run who should be prosecuted with the full force of the law
    "Even if..." ?

    What on earth are you trying to say?
    Motorcyclists are roughly 52 times more likely to be killed in a road traffic accident than car occupants, per mile ridden. Cyclists are 23 times more likely to be killed or seriously injured on roads than car users


    https://www.think.gov.uk/themes/motorcycling/

    https://www.stickybottle.com/latest-news/cyclists-are-23-times-more-likely-to-be-killed-or-seriously-injured-on-roads-than-car-users-31813
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,024
    ydoethur said:

    Anecdotally, I was out walking in the Cotswolds near Uley this morning.

    Hell of a lot of traffic in and out of Fairford. Hard to imagine that the Yanks would be working their air transport that hard if Mango Mussolini wasn't planning to do more distraction from the CSA allegations against him bombing of Iran to stop them having a nuclear weapon that they don't have and have offered to not try and develop.

    Comparing Trump with Mussolini is an outrageous slur.

    I mean, Mussolini was pretty awful but...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,527
    edited April 21
    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    My condolences. This has hit the news widely and quickly, and the Head sounds like a hero, who significantly turned the school around over 17 years and stayed for the long run.

    I'll drop you a PM with a local Community Interest Company in the Trafford area who work in the safe travel to schools arena as a suggestion should anyone be looking for a suitable "in memoriam" suggestion in addition to the school itself; I am on their Discord and they are one of the best in the country promoting walking-wheeling-cycling provision.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789
    edited April 21

    ydoethur said:

    Anecdotally, I was out walking in the Cotswolds near Uley this morning.

    Hell of a lot of traffic in and out of Fairford. Hard to imagine that the Yanks would be working their air transport that hard if Mango Mussolini wasn't planning to do more distraction from the CSA allegations against him bombing of Iran to stop them having a nuclear weapon that they don't have and have offered to not try and develop.

    Comparing Trump with Mussolini is an outrageous slur.

    I mean, Mussolini was pretty awful but...
    At least he made the trains run on time...
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,261
    edited April 21

    New Senedd Poll from YouGov f/w 6-15 April

    @YouGov have released their latest Senedd election prediction poll with @cardiffuni and @ITVCymruWales:

    Reform UK - 29% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru - 29% (-4)
    Labour - 13% (=)
    Green - 10% (-2)
    Conservatives - 8% (+1)
    Lib Dems - 6% (+1)
    Other - 4% (-1)

    There are parts of Wales where the only gay in the village out numbers the Tory and Lib Dem voters.
    I am a bit suspicious of this late Reform surge with Yougov. My questions are:
    1. Is it echoed by any other polling?
    2. Has Yougov made another change to their methodology?
    3. If the answer to one and two is "No" and "Yes", it looks to me like Yougov know that they have been under-scoring Reform, but the strategy has run out of road, and they now need to come back into line with other polling firms to avoid looking bad after the elections.
    1 Hard to tell, as it is 3-4 days ahead of any other recent poll so could be a genuine shift in opinion

    2 Last week they started prompting for Restore Britain, but if anything that would reduce Reform respondents
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