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The high point of the Sir Olly Robbins testimony – politicalbetting.com

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  • Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Very sad to hear this. So often we hear about a road casualty without ever understanding how big a hole the loss leaves in the lives of many around them.

    Cyclists have started coming out in numbers in my rural area due to the sunshine, and it's quite shocking to see how car drivers treat them with contempt. Some of the behaviour is appallingly egregious. I saw a knob end in a car overtake a group of cyclists on a tight corner, almost pushing them into the guard rail.

    Just yesterday I was out on my scooter and overtook a cyclist approaching a bend - safe on a two-foot wide scooter that has extreme agility and excellent acceleration, but the idiot behind me in a Range Rover decided to follow and nearly got taken out by a van coming round the corner.

    This country really needs harsher punishment for driving offences and some kind of regular mandatory competence check for drivers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    If that was the result in May Starmer and Kemi could be gone by the summer
    Starmer yes, but those losses aren't utterly terrible for Badenoch.
    4th place behind Reform, the Greens and LDs would be terrible, most Tory MPs would not accept a leader who delivered that result
    Which would be reasonable, but what's the alternative? Who in the Tories will get the polls to reverse between Tories and Reform for next year's locals? As they won't come above fourth until that happens.

    Doesn't seem to me like Kemi is up to it, but the problems appear to be bigger than who is leader.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 581

    ...

    Dopermean said:

    kle4 said:

    "Just as the NHS is a prime reason for pride in Britain"

    Polly Toynbee - today's Guardian



    "During his evidence on Tuesday, April 21, Dr Malik was asked if he had ever felt pressure to not admit a [acute mental health crisis] patient or to discharge them early because of a lack of the availability of beds.

    He said he had not personally made such a decision but was aware of “15, 18, 20 people” waiting for a bed for “days and weeks”.

    This included patients who had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act, he said.

    “People go on the bed list and, if there is no bed, then if they are in an acute hospital they remain there which is not ideal, and if they are in the care home or even in the community they will remain there.

    Dr Malik said there have been times where patients have been sent to places as far away as Scotland but “sometimes there is no bed”. "


    Dr Malik giving evidence to the public inquiry on Calocane killings in Nottingham

    I just don't understand the NHS being the prime reason for pride - I like to have it, but it doesn't seem to be particularly excellent as far as Western health systems go? If others have better outcomes what is the best way to copy that?
    Totally agree. It's as if people don't have healthcare in say France or Germany.
    Remember, most people in the UK only travel abroad for holidays. They don't interact will foreign health services much and seemed surprised that they exist, when they do use them.
    The best way to achieve the standards of better European health systems would be spend as much per capita as they do. Though we'd probably need to spend more to start with to catch up.
    Is it?
    How do you think we could achieve the standards of better European health systems without spending as much per capita as they do?
    Hmmm. I think there's aspects of the NHS which seem impervious to extra money - it just disappears into the pockets of overpaid bureaucrats or entitled doctors. I think international comparisons should be done but it's more complex than just spend, spend, spend.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490

    ydoethur said:

    Anecdotally, I was out walking in the Cotswolds near Uley this morning.

    Hell of a lot of traffic in and out of Fairford. Hard to imagine that the Yanks would be working their air transport that hard if Mango Mussolini wasn't planning to do more distraction from the CSA allegations against him bombing of Iran to stop them having a nuclear weapon that they don't have and have offered to not try and develop.

    Comparing Trump with Mussolini is an outrageous slur.

    I mean, Mussolini was pretty awful but...
    Are you saying I should not castor spersions on Benny?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,027
    eek said:

    Ratters said:

    DavidL said:

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    You're asking the wrong question. The question is do Labour MPs rate her because they are the ones that get the important votes in this process. And the answer seems to be yes. She is happy to swear at Tories and they like that. She is better at pretending to care. She indulges their fantasies a little better.

    Personally, she strikes me as being very much in the Liz Truss class of PM, so far out of her depth that the shore is out of sight, but no one cares what I think. Its what the 400 MPs think that matters at this stage.
    It really depends on whether she can delegate effectively. Or have a right-hand man or woman (like Osbourne to Cameron or Brown to Blair) who drives policy direction.

    What is undoubtable at this point is she's better at politics than Starmer. Not necessarily governing or policy, though it's a low bar.

    I was of the view Labour should wait until 2028 and give Raynor a short run at the next election. Increasingly I think Starmer needs to go sooner and have an alternative period of actually governing under new leadership.
    Labour hasn't delivered any reason to vote for them in the past 2 years. So they need to remove SKS AND deliver a reason for people to vote for them (and not Reform) before the mid to late 2028....
    Agreed. And the minimum viable time to deliver anything in those timeframes probably requires Starmer gone by this Autumn as even with the best leadership in the world it takes some time to competently implement changes.

    Sack him in two weeks and take the gamble.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    edited April 21
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    If that was the result in May Starmer and Kemi could be gone by the summer
    Starmer yes, but those losses aren't utterly terrible for Badenoch.
    4th place behind Reform, the Greens and LDs would be terrible, most Tory MPs would not accept a leader who delivered that result
    Which would be reasonable, but what's the alternative? Who in the Tories will get the polls to reverse between Tories and Reform for next year's locals? As they won't come above fourth until that happens.

    Doesn't seem to me like Kemi is up to it, but the problems appear to be bigger than who is leader.
    Cleverly would certainly get more tactical votes from Labour and LD voters in Tory held seats than Kemi if the Tories are 4th.

    If that is the result in May, Kemi is done as leader. Cleverly would be the Howard to her IDS
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,588

    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Very sad to hear this. So often we hear about a road casualty without ever understanding how big a hole the loss leaves in the lives of many around them.

    Cyclists have started coming out in numbers in my rural area due to the sunshine, and it's quite shocking to see how car drivers treat them with contempt. Some of the behaviour is appallingly egregious. I saw a knob end in a car overtake a group of cyclists on a tight corner, almost pushing them into the guard rail.

    Just yesterday I was out on my scooter and overtook a cyclist approaching a bend - safe on a two-foot wide scooter that has extreme agility and excellent acceleration, but the idiot behind me in a Range Rover decided to follow and nearly got taken out by a van coming round the corner.

    This country really needs harsher punishment for driving offences and some kind of regular mandatory competence check for drivers.
    I think some drivers actually deliberately negatively change their behaviour when they see cyclists.

    It's like how some accelerate to close a gap if they sense someone ahead might want to pull out into it.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,848
    ydoethur said:

    Apparently Mushroom Shaped has also been saying the Pope wants Iran to have nuclear weapons.

    I know he's not very bright, and I know he's got dementia, and I know he has the same relationship to the truth as the average solicitor acting for the Post Office, but what does he actually think he's going to gain by saying such utter nonsense?

    All he's doing is pissing off the Catholics.

    Is that before or after the Vatican City nukes?
  • Cookie said:

    Thanks all for the kind words. I feel as if I shouldn't be feeling this bad about it - I couldn't really claim to know him personally - it just feels so bloody unfair.
    But pb is generous in its sympathies - many thanks.

    Sometimes these things hit us really hard even though it's not immediate family or a lifelong friend.

    About 20 years ago, when my son was 5, his friend at primary school was diagnosed with neuroblastoma and died within about 6 months. His funeral, with all his teachers and classmates in attendance, was almost too much to bear. It knocked me for six. I was pretty much incapacitated by feelings of unfairness, grief, rage, all the rest.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    edited April 21
    scampi25 said:

    ...

    Dopermean said:

    kle4 said:

    "Just as the NHS is a prime reason for pride in Britain"

    Polly Toynbee - today's Guardian



    "During his evidence on Tuesday, April 21, Dr Malik was asked if he had ever felt pressure to not admit a [acute mental health crisis] patient or to discharge them early because of a lack of the availability of beds.

    He said he had not personally made such a decision but was aware of “15, 18, 20 people” waiting for a bed for “days and weeks”.

    This included patients who had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act, he said.

    “People go on the bed list and, if there is no bed, then if they are in an acute hospital they remain there which is not ideal, and if they are in the care home or even in the community they will remain there.

    Dr Malik said there have been times where patients have been sent to places as far away as Scotland but “sometimes there is no bed”. "


    Dr Malik giving evidence to the public inquiry on Calocane killings in Nottingham

    I just don't understand the NHS being the prime reason for pride - I like to have it, but it doesn't seem to be particularly excellent as far as Western health systems go? If others have better outcomes what is the best way to copy that?
    Totally agree. It's as if people don't have healthcare in say France or Germany.
    Remember, most people in the UK only travel abroad for holidays. They don't interact will foreign health services much and seemed surprised that they exist, when they do use them.
    The best way to achieve the standards of better European health systems would be spend as much per capita as they do. Though we'd probably need to spend more to start with to catch up.
    Is it?
    How do you think we could achieve the standards of better European health systems without spending as much per capita as they do?
    Hmmm. I think there's aspects of the NHS which seem impervious to extra money - it just disappears into the pockets of overpaid bureaucrats or entitled doctors. I think international comparisons should be done but it's more complex than just spend, spend, spend.
    How we spend and what we spend on is presumably also important. Proclaiming how great the NHS is as a very emotional thing for many people just distracts from the analysis about whether it is funded enough or funded in the right ways, by reducing every debate on it to whether people love or hate it (or can be accused of hating it).

    Edit: Maybe it isn't funded enough, I don't know, but I am confident the way the debate is framed is unhelpful.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,234

    New Senedd Poll from YouGov f/w 6-15 April

    @YouGov have released their latest Senedd election prediction poll with @cardiffuni and @ITVCymruWales:

    Reform UK - 29% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru - 29% (-4)
    Labour - 13% (=)
    Green - 10% (-2)
    Conservatives - 8% (+1)
    Lib Dems - 6% (+1)
    Other - 4% (-1)

    There are parts of Wales where the only gay in the village out numbers the Tory and Lib Dem voters.
    I am a bit suspicious of this late Reform surge with Yougov. My questions are:
    1. Is it echoed by any other polling?
    2. Has Yougov made another change to their methodology?
    3. If the answer to one and two is "No" and "Yes", it looks to me like Yougov know that they have been under-scoring Reform, but the strategy has run out of road, and they now need to come back into line with other polling firms to avoid looking bad after the elections.
    1 Hard to tell, as it is 3-4 days ahead of any other recent poll so could be a genuine shift in opinion

    2 Last week they started prompting for Restore Britain, but if anything that would reduce Reform respondents
    That would be one affect of it - another might be to legitimise a Reform choice by mentioning a party still further to the right.

    But it's not really the sort of methodology change I meant - I meant a change in weighting.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,019
    scampi25 said:

    ...

    Dopermean said:

    kle4 said:

    "Just as the NHS is a prime reason for pride in Britain"

    Polly Toynbee - today's Guardian



    "During his evidence on Tuesday, April 21, Dr Malik was asked if he had ever felt pressure to not admit a [acute mental health crisis] patient or to discharge them early because of a lack of the availability of beds.

    He said he had not personally made such a decision but was aware of “15, 18, 20 people” waiting for a bed for “days and weeks”.

    This included patients who had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act, he said.

    “People go on the bed list and, if there is no bed, then if they are in an acute hospital they remain there which is not ideal, and if they are in the care home or even in the community they will remain there.

    Dr Malik said there have been times where patients have been sent to places as far away as Scotland but “sometimes there is no bed”. "


    Dr Malik giving evidence to the public inquiry on Calocane killings in Nottingham

    I just don't understand the NHS being the prime reason for pride - I like to have it, but it doesn't seem to be particularly excellent as far as Western health systems go? If others have better outcomes what is the best way to copy that?
    Totally agree. It's as if people don't have healthcare in say France or Germany.
    Remember, most people in the UK only travel abroad for holidays. They don't interact will foreign health services much and seemed surprised that they exist, when they do use them.
    The best way to achieve the standards of better European health systems would be spend as much per capita as they do. Though we'd probably need to spend more to start with to catch up.
    Is it?
    How do you think we could achieve the standards of better European health systems without spending as much per capita as they do?
    Hmmm. I think there's aspects of the NHS which seem impervious to extra money - it just disappears into the pockets of overpaid bureaucrats or entitled doctors. I think international comparisons should be done but it's more complex than just spend, spend, spend.
    Thank you for your fact-free submission.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809

    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Very sad to hear this. So often we hear about a road casualty without ever understanding how big a hole the loss leaves in the lives of many around them.

    Cyclists have started coming out in numbers in my rural area due to the sunshine, and it's quite shocking to see how car drivers treat them with contempt. Some of the behaviour is appallingly egregious. I saw a knob end in a car overtake a group of cyclists on a tight corner, almost pushing them into the guard rail.

    Just yesterday I was out on my scooter and overtook a cyclist approaching a bend - safe on a two-foot wide scooter that has extreme agility and excellent acceleration, but the idiot behind me in a Range Rover decided to follow and nearly got taken out by a van coming round the corner.

    This country really needs harsher punishment for driving offences and some kind of regular mandatory competence check for drivers.
    There is an irrational hatred of cyclists in this country. It's not just people making jokes about it, it appears to be genuine a lot of the time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    edited April 21

    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems oniversally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Very sad to hear this. So often we hear about a road casualty without ever understanding how big a hole the loss leaves in the lives of many around them.

    Cyclists have started coming out in numbers in my rural area due to the sunshine, and it's quite shocking to see how car drivers treat them with contempt. Some of the behaviour is appallingly egregious. I saw a knob end in a car overtake a group of cyclists on a tight corner, almost pushing them into the guard rail.

    Just yesterday I was out on my scooter and overtook a cyclist approaching a bend - safe on a two-foot wide scooter that has extreme agility and excellent acceleration, but the idiot behind me in a Range Rover decided to follow and nearly got taken out by a van coming round the corner.

    This country really needs harsher punishment for driving offences and some kind of regular mandatory competence check for drivers.
    Why? There are already death by dangerous driving, death by careless driving under the influence of drink and drugs or simple death by careless driving, serious injury by dangerous driving and serious injury by careless driving offences and standard dangerous and careless driving if no death or injury.

    Yet cyclists who kill pedestrians cannot be prosecuted for death by dangerous cycling or serious injury by careless cycling if they kill or seriously injure pedestrians. Only by a 19th century law with a maximum 2 year jail penalty compared to a maximum sentence of life imprisonment for offences after 2022 for dangerous drivers who cause the death of a cyclist, a pedestrian or another driver and 18 years jail maximum for offences committed pre 2022
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 15,649
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anecdotally, I was out walking in the Cotswolds near Uley this morning.

    Hell of a lot of traffic in and out of Fairford. Hard to imagine that the Yanks would be working their air transport that hard if Mango Mussolini wasn't planning to do more distraction from the CSA allegations against him bombing of Iran to stop them having a nuclear weapon that they don't have and have offered to not try and develop.

    Comparing Trump with Mussolini is an outrageous slur.

    I mean, Mussolini was pretty awful but...
    Are you saying I should not castor spersions on Benny?
    Well he did make a bit of a pollox up of things.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883
    https://x.com/LBC/status/2046664011622866984

    'Starmer looks absolutely ridiculous.'

    @AndrewMarr9 delivers his 'brutal' analysis of the PM's position after the Mandelson debacle.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,146
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Shocking. My sympathies to you and all at the school.
    Sincere condolences to all affected and it is a relevant issue to the wider world, at times we are all vulnerable road users, if not cyclists then pedestrians

    Sadly hit and run of vulnerable road users is all too common
    https://road.cc/news/zero-arrests-from-106-hit-and-runs-on-cyclists-in-london-last-year-as-cycling-campaigners-slam-completely-unacceptable-figures
    Even if cyclists and motorcyclists are significantly more likely to be killed or injured on roads than those in cars it is still obviously sad when fatalities occur. Including the headteacher at Cookie's daughter's school. Certainly no excuse for drivers doing a hit and run who should be prosecuted with the full force of the law
    "Even if..." ?

    What on earth are you trying to say?
    Motorcyclists are roughly 52 times more likely to be killed in a road traffic accident than car occupants, per mile ridden. Cyclists are 23 times more likely to be killed or seriously injured on roads than car users


    https://www.think.gov.uk/themes/motorcycling/

    https://www.stickybottle.com/latest-news/cyclists-are-23-times-more-likely-to-be-killed-or-seriously-injured-on-roads-than-car-users-31813
    I think you need to reread what you wrote originally. The implication is that you are blaming vulnerable road users for being KSI.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,019

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anecdotally, I was out walking in the Cotswolds near Uley this morning.

    Hell of a lot of traffic in and out of Fairford. Hard to imagine that the Yanks would be working their air transport that hard if Mango Mussolini wasn't planning to do more distraction from the CSA allegations against him bombing of Iran to stop them having a nuclear weapon that they don't have and have offered to not try and develop.

    Comparing Trump with Mussolini is an outrageous slur.

    I mean, Mussolini was pretty awful but...
    Are you saying I should not castor spersions on Benny?
    Well he did make a bit of a pollox up of things.
    Is that what Gemini told you?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anecdotally, I was out walking in the Cotswolds near Uley this morning.

    Hell of a lot of traffic in and out of Fairford. Hard to imagine that the Yanks would be working their air transport that hard if Mango Mussolini wasn't planning to do more distraction from the CSA allegations against him bombing of Iran to stop them having a nuclear weapon that they don't have and have offered to not try and develop.

    Comparing Trump with Mussolini is an outrageous slur.

    I mean, Mussolini was pretty awful but...
    Are you saying I should not castor spersions on Benny?
    Well he did make a bit of a pollox up of things.
    Is that what Gemini told you?
    I thought as classical puns go it was a decent Troy.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,146

    ydoethur said:

    Apparently Mushroom Shaped has also been saying the Pope wants Iran to have nuclear weapons.

    I know he's not very bright, and I know he's got dementia, and I know he has the same relationship to the truth as the average solicitor acting for the Post Office, but what does he actually think he's going to gain by saying such utter nonsense?

    All he's doing is pissing off the Catholics.

    If the Pope wants to intervene in earthly politics then he should expect some pushback.
    Popes have always intervened in politics, this one is historically rare in being on the peaceful side which is a modern trend.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    edited April 21
    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Shocking. My sympathies to you and all at the school.
    Sincere condolences to all affected and it is a relevant issue to the wider world, at times we are all vulnerable road users, if not cyclists then pedestrians

    Sadly hit and run of vulnerable road users is all too common
    https://road.cc/news/zero-arrests-from-106-hit-and-runs-on-cyclists-in-london-last-year-as-cycling-campaigners-slam-completely-unacceptable-figures
    Even if cyclists and motorcyclists are significantly more likely to be killed or injured on roads than those in cars it is still obviously sad when fatalities occur. Including the headteacher at Cookie's daughter's school. Certainly no excuse for drivers doing a hit and run who should be prosecuted with the full force of the law
    "Even if..." ?

    What on earth are you trying to say?
    Motorcyclists are roughly 52 times more likely to be killed in a road traffic accident than car occupants, per mile ridden. Cyclists are 23 times more likely to be killed or seriously injured on roads than car users


    https://www.think.gov.uk/themes/motorcycling/

    https://www.stickybottle.com/latest-news/cyclists-are-23-times-more-likely-to-be-killed-or-seriously-injured-on-roads-than-car-users-31813
    I think you need to reread what you wrote originally. The implication is that you are blaming vulnerable road users for being KSI.
    No I am not, drivers should be careful and look out for ovulnerable road users like cyclists, pedestrians and motorcylists.

    However, if you choose to ride a motorbike or cycle on a busy main road you also have to accept that sadly you are significantly more likely to die or be seriously injured if in a crash than if you drove or were a passenger in a car or bus or taxi or walked on the pavement
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    If that was the result in May Starmer and Kemi could be gone by the summer
    Starmer yes, but those losses aren't utterly terrible for Badenoch.
    4th place behind Reform, the Greens and LDs would be terrible, most Tory MPs would not accept a leader who delivered that result
    Which would be reasonable, but what's the alternative? Who in the Tories will get the polls to reverse between Tories and Reform for next year's locals? As they won't come above fourth until that happens.

    Doesn't seem to me like Kemi is up to it, but the problems appear to be bigger than who is leader.
    Cleverly would certainly get more tactical votes from Labour and LD voters in Tory held seats than Kemi if the Tories are 4th.

    If that is the result in May, Kemi is done as leader. Cleverly would be the Howard to her IDS
    Rubbish on stilts

    You are blind to the fact Kemi is increasingly popular and it is not Kemi but the brand that is the problem

    Cleverly would not change that and I doubt he would win a contest anyway
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    edited April 21

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    If that was the result in May Starmer and Kemi could be gone by the summer
    Starmer yes, but those losses aren't utterly terrible for Badenoch.
    4th place behind Reform, the Greens and LDs would be terrible, most Tory MPs would not accept a leader who delivered that result
    Which would be reasonable, but what's the alternative? Who in the Tories will get the polls to reverse between Tories and Reform for next year's locals? As they won't come above fourth until that happens.

    Doesn't seem to me like Kemi is up to it, but the problems appear to be bigger than who is leader.
    Cleverly would certainly get more tactical votes from Labour and LD voters in Tory held seats than Kemi if the Tories are 4th.

    If that is the result in May, Kemi is done as leader. Cleverly would be the Howard to her IDS
    Rubbish on stilts

    You are blind to the fact Kemi is increasingly popular and it is not Kemi but the brand that is the problem

    Cleverly would not change that and I doubt he would win a contest anyway
    Fine, Kemi is increasingly popular BigG I hear you, I have the champagne on ice in the fridge then for the huge Tory gains in May and the shock first place defeat of Reform and the Greens as well as Labour and the LDs by we blues on NEV.

    Cleverly would get it by coronation now in the unlikely event Kemi failed to win the famous victory as above, there would be no contest now Jenrick has defected to Reform
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580

    NEW THREAD

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Shocking. My sympathies to you and all at the school.
    Sincere condolences to all affected and it is a relevant issue to the wider world, at times we are all vulnerable road users, if not cyclists then pedestrians

    Sadly hit and run of vulnerable road users is all too common
    https://road.cc/news/zero-arrests-from-106-hit-and-runs-on-cyclists-in-london-last-year-as-cycling-campaigners-slam-completely-unacceptable-figures
    Even if cyclists and motorcyclists are significantly more likely to be killed or injured on roads than those in cars it is still obviously sad when fatalities occur. Including the headteacher at Cookie's daughter's school. Certainly no excuse for drivers doing a hit and run who should be prosecuted with the full force of the law
    "Even if..." ?

    What on earth are you trying to say?
    Motorcyclists are roughly 52 times more likely to be killed in a road traffic accident than car occupants, per mile ridden. Cyclists are 23 times more likely to be killed or seriously injured on roads than car users


    https://www.think.gov.uk/themes/motorcycling/

    https://www.stickybottle.com/latest-news/cyclists-are-23-times-more-likely-to-be-killed-or-seriously-injured-on-roads-than-car-users-31813
    I think you need to reread what you wrote originally. The implication is that you are blaming vulnerable road users for being KSI.
    No I am not, drivers should be careful and look out for ovulnerable road users like cyclists, pedestrians and motorcylists.

    However, if you choose to ride a motorbike or cycle on a busy main road you also have to accept that sadly you are significantly more likely to die or be seriously injured if in a crash than if you drove or were a passenger in a car or bus or taxi or walked on the pavement
    Your last paragraph is nuts

    Every road user has the right to be as safe as any other
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    If that was the result in May Starmer and Kemi could be gone by the summer
    Starmer yes, but those losses aren't utterly terrible for Badenoch.
    4th place behind Reform, the Greens and LDs would be terrible, most Tory MPs would not accept a leader who delivered that result
    Which would be reasonable, but what's the alternative? Who in the Tories will get the polls to reverse between Tories and Reform for next year's locals? As they won't come above fourth until that happens.

    Doesn't seem to me like Kemi is up to it, but the problems appear to be bigger than who is leader.
    Cleverly would certainly get more tactical votes from Labour and LD voters in Tory held seats than Kemi if the Tories are 4th.

    If that is the result in May, Kemi is done as leader. Cleverly would be the Howard to her IDS
    If the Tories need someone to play the Howard role, the only credible one would be Hunt.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,019

    New Senedd Poll from YouGov f/w 6-15 April

    @YouGov have released their latest Senedd election prediction poll with @cardiffuni and @ITVCymruWales:

    Reform UK - 29% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru - 29% (-4)
    Labour - 13% (=)
    Green - 10% (-2)
    Conservatives - 8% (+1)
    Lib Dems - 6% (+1)
    Other - 4% (-1)

    There are parts of Wales where the only gay in the village out numbers the Tory and Lib Dem voters.
    I am a bit suspicious of this late Reform surge with Yougov. My questions are:
    1. Is it echoed by any other polling?
    2. Has Yougov made another change to their methodology?
    3. If the answer to one and two is "No" and "Yes", it looks to me like Yougov know that they have been under-scoring Reform, but the strategy has run out of road, and they now need to come back into line with other polling firms to avoid looking bad after the elections.
    1 Hard to tell, as it is 3-4 days ahead of any other recent poll so could be a genuine shift in opinion

    2 Last week they started prompting for Restore Britain, but if anything that would reduce Reform respondents
    That would be one affect of it - another might be to legitimise a Reform choice by mentioning a party still further to the right.

    But it's not really the sort of methodology change I meant - I meant a change in weighting.
    What do we make of the rapid fall in Reform support as reported by Find Out Now? Last year they were giving Reform higher scores than any other pollster; their lates poll has Reform on 21%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Shocking. My sympathies to you and all at the school.
    Sincere condolences to all affected and it is a relevant issue to the wider world, at times we are all vulnerable road users, if not cyclists then pedestrians

    Sadly hit and run of vulnerable road users is all too common
    https://road.cc/news/zero-arrests-from-106-hit-and-runs-on-cyclists-in-london-last-year-as-cycling-campaigners-slam-completely-unacceptable-figures
    Even if cyclists and motorcyclists are significantly more likely to be killed or injured on roads than those in cars it is still obviously sad when fatalities occur. Including the headteacher at Cookie's daughter's school. Certainly no excuse for drivers doing a hit and run who should be prosecuted with the full force of the law
    "Even if..." ?

    What on earth are you trying to say?
    Motorcyclists are roughly 52 times more likely to be killed in a road traffic accident than car occupants, per mile ridden. Cyclists are 23 times more likely to be killed or seriously injured on roads than car users


    https://www.think.gov.uk/themes/motorcycling/

    https://www.stickybottle.com/latest-news/cyclists-are-23-times-more-likely-to-be-killed-or-seriously-injured-on-roads-than-car-users-31813
    I think you need to reread what you wrote originally. The implication is that you are blaming vulnerable road users for being KSI.
    No I am not, drivers should be careful and look out for ovulnerable road users like cyclists, pedestrians and motorcylists.

    However, if you choose to ride a motorbike or cycle on a busy main road you also have to accept that sadly you are significantly more likely to die or be seriously injured if in a crash than if you drove or were a passenger in a car or bus or taxi or walked on the pavement
    Your last paragraph is nuts

    Every road user has the right to be as safe as any other
    They do but the stats don't lie sadly, you are 50 times more likely to be killed in a crash riding a motorbike than in a car for one
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    edited April 21

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    If that was the result in May Starmer and Kemi could be gone by the summer
    Starmer yes, but those losses aren't utterly terrible for Badenoch.
    4th place behind Reform, the Greens and LDs would be terrible, most Tory MPs would not accept a leader who delivered that result
    Which would be reasonable, but what's the alternative? Who in the Tories will get the polls to reverse between Tories and Reform for next year's locals? As they won't come above fourth until that happens.

    Doesn't seem to me like Kemi is up to it, but the problems appear to be bigger than who is leader.
    Cleverly would certainly get more tactical votes from Labour and LD voters in Tory held seats than Kemi if the Tories are 4th.

    If that is the result in May, Kemi is done as leader. Cleverly would be the Howard to her IDS
    If the Tories need someone to play the Howard role, the only credible one would be Hunt.
    Tory members wouldn't accept Hunt, they probably would Cleverly.

    Plus in the 2024 Tory leadership contest just 18 Tory MPs from a much bigger Tory parliamentary party voted for Hunt, whereas 37 Tory MPs voted for Cleverly in the final round in 2024
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    If that was the result in May Starmer and Kemi could be gone by the summer
    Starmer yes, but those losses aren't utterly terrible for Badenoch.
    4th place behind Reform, the Greens and LDs would be terrible, most Tory MPs would not accept a leader who delivered that result
    Which would be reasonable, but what's the alternative? Who in the Tories will get the polls to reverse between Tories and Reform for next year's locals? As they won't come above fourth until that happens.

    Doesn't seem to me like Kemi is up to it, but the problems appear to be bigger than who is leader.
    Cleverly would certainly get more tactical votes from Labour and LD voters in Tory held seats than Kemi if the Tories are 4th.

    If that is the result in May, Kemi is done as leader. Cleverly would be the Howard to her IDS
    Rubbish on stilts

    You are blind to the fact Kemi is increasingly popular and it is not Kemi but the brand that is the problem

    Cleverly would not change that and I doubt he would win a contest anyway
    Fine, Kemi is increasingly popular BigG I hear you, I have the champagne on ice in the fridge then for the huge Tory gains in May and the shock first place defeat of Reform and the Greens as well as Labour and the LDs by we blues on NEV.

    Cleverly would get it by coronation now in the unlikely event Kemi failed to win the famous victory as above, there would be no contest now Jenrick has defected to Reform
    Of course there would be a contest but there will be no vacancy
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    I think given Starmers problems she’s going to have to get cleared by HMRC before she could even contemplate trying to become leader.

    Polling currently isn’t great for her but she certainly has an interesting back story and with time I think she could connect with a lot more voters .

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    If that was the result in May Starmer and Kemi could be gone by the summer
    Starmer yes, but those losses aren't utterly terrible for Badenoch.
    4th place behind Reform, the Greens and LDs would be terrible, most Tory MPs would not accept a leader who delivered that result
    Which would be reasonable, but what's the alternative? Who in the Tories will get the polls to reverse between Tories and Reform for next year's locals? As they won't come above fourth until that happens.

    Doesn't seem to me like Kemi is up to it, but the problems appear to be bigger than who is leader.
    Cleverly would certainly get more tactical votes from Labour and LD voters in Tory held seats than Kemi if the Tories are 4th.

    If that is the result in May, Kemi is done as leader. Cleverly would be the Howard to her IDS
    Rubbish on stilts

    You are blind to the fact Kemi is increasingly popular and it is not Kemi but the brand that is the problem

    Cleverly would not change that and I doubt he would win a contest anyway
    Fine, Kemi is increasingly popular BigG I hear you, I have the champagne on ice in the fridge then for the huge Tory gains in May and the shock first place defeat of Reform and the Greens as well as Labour and the LDs by we blues on NEV.

    Cleverly would get it by coronation now in the unlikely event Kemi failed to win the famous victory as above, there would be no contest now Jenrick has defected to Reform
    Of course there would be a contest but there will be no vacancy
    Nope there would not, it would be Cleverly by coronation within a week, a la Howard 2003
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883
    https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/2046670696844087447

    So every major figure of the Trump administration have just gathered at the White House for an unplanned meeting...

    Something is happening for sure.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,896
    Ratters said:

    DavidL said:

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    You're asking the wrong question. The question is do Labour MPs rate her because they are the ones that get the important votes in this process. And the answer seems to be yes. She is happy to swear at Tories and they like that. She is better at pretending to care. She indulges their fantasies a little better.

    Personally, she strikes me as being very much in the Liz Truss class of PM, so far out of her depth that the shore is out of sight, but no one cares what I think. Its what the 400 MPs think that matters at this stage.
    It really depends on whether she can delegate effectively. Or have a right-hand man or woman (like Osbourne to Cameron or Brown to Blair) who drives policy direction.

    What is undoubtable at this point is she's better at politics than Starmer. Not necessarily governing or policy, though it's a low bar.

    I was of the view Labour should wait until 2028 and give Raynor a short run at the next election. Increasingly I think Starmer needs to go sooner and have an alternative period of actually governing under new leadership.
    I don't dispute for a second that she is better at politics than Starmer. That, in my clumsy way, is what I was trying to say. Mind you, my daughter's cat is better at politics than Starmer and he's dead.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,090
    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Very sad to hear this. So often we hear about a road casualty without ever understanding how big a hole the loss leaves in the lives of many around them.

    Cyclists have started coming out in numbers in my rural area due to the sunshine, and it's quite shocking to see how car drivers treat them with contempt. Some of the behaviour is appallingly egregious. I saw a knob end in a car overtake a group of cyclists on a tight corner, almost pushing them into the guard rail.

    Just yesterday I was out on my scooter and overtook a cyclist approaching a bend - safe on a two-foot wide scooter that has extreme agility and excellent acceleration, but the idiot behind me in a Range Rover decided to follow and nearly got taken out by a van coming round the corner.

    This country really needs harsher punishment for driving offences and some kind of regular mandatory competence check for drivers.
    There is an irrational hatred of cyclists in this country. It's not just people making jokes about it, it appears to be genuine a lot of the time.
    It’s not irrational. It’s because the majority of them are aggressive, entitled, fucking arseholes.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,627
    Does Starmer have any redeeming features?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880



    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Very sad to hear this. So often we hear about a road casualty without ever understanding how big a hole the loss leaves in the lives of many around them.

    Cyclists have started coming out in numbers in my rural area due to the sunshine, and it's quite shocking to see how car drivers treat them with contempt. Some of the behaviour is appallingly egregious. I saw a knob end in a car overtake a group of cyclists on a tight corner, almost pushing them into the guard rail.

    Just yesterday I was out on my scooter and overtook a cyclist approaching a bend - safe on a two-foot wide scooter that has extreme agility and excellent acceleration, but the idiot behind me in a Range Rover decided to follow and nearly got taken out by a van coming round the corner.

    This country really needs harsher punishment for driving offences and some kind of regular mandatory competence check for drivers.
    There is an irrational hatred of cyclists in this country. It's not just people making jokes about it, it appears to be genuine a lot of the time.
    It’s not irrational. It’s because the majority of them are aggressive, entitled, fucking arseholes.
    Plenty of lycra clad Tour de France wannabees we have to follow on the way to our rural churches on Sunday on a sunny day
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,446

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    The public don't get to choose.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/02/keir-starmer-wes-streeting-leadership-survation-poll/
    Not only that.

    Whoever comes next will have a humongous majority and, unlike Major or Brown, pretty much a blank slate, except for their internal election campaign.

    A shiny sixpence says that those who oppose Labour from the right, or from a Eurosceptic direction, aren't going to like it much.

    (One of the consequences of all those Conservative leadership elections, since 1997 really, has been a rightward drift as wannabes try to.ticklevthe tummy of the membership.)
    No centrist/Blairite/realist Labour will want to run on those banners for sure, and given there is no money that doesn't leave much apart from being a rejoin candidate. So final two may be a Blairite type hiding under the EU flag vs a magic money tree leftie.
    I thought the magic money tree had lost its magic.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,035
    So Iran has called Trump’s bluff lol
  • HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems oniversally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Very sad to hear this. So often we hear about a road casualty without ever understanding how big a hole the loss leaves in the lives of many around them.

    Cyclists have started coming out in numbers in my rural area due to the sunshine, and it's quite shocking to see how car drivers treat them with contempt. Some of the behaviour is appallingly egregious. I saw a knob end in a car overtake a group of cyclists on a tight corner, almost pushing them into the guard rail.

    Just yesterday I was out on my scooter and overtook a cyclist approaching a bend - safe on a two-foot wide scooter that has extreme agility and excellent acceleration, but the idiot behind me in a Range Rover decided to follow and nearly got taken out by a van coming round the corner.

    This country really needs harsher punishment for driving offences and some kind of regular mandatory competence check for drivers.
    Why? There are already death by dangerous driving, death by careless driving under the influence of drink and drugs or simple death by careless driving, serious injury by dangerous driving and serious injury by careless driving offences and standard dangerous and careless driving if no death or injury.

    Yet cyclists who kill pedestrians cannot be prosecuted for death by dangerous cycling or serious injury by careless cycling if they kill or seriously injure pedestrians. Only by a 19th century law with a maximum 2 year jail penalty compared to a maximum sentence of life imprisonment for offences after 2022 for dangerous drivers who cause the death of a cyclist, a pedestrian or another driver and 18 years jail maximum for offences committed pre 2022
    I didn't say more laws, but harsher punishment. Courts in the UK are notoriously lenient on bad drivers. The most recent example is the woman who caused an army land rover to crash, leaving the driver with a broken back. No jail time and only a one year ban.

    Or the TV presenter Holly Willoughby, who caused a scooter rider to break his neck. She got a fine and some points and never even had to show up in court. That's barely an inconvenience.

    Punishment for this kind of behaviour needs to hurt - lengthy bans, vehicle seizure and jail time if necessary - or drivers will keep doing it and cyclists, motorcyclists and pedestrians will keep getting hurt.

    And I do actually agree about cyclists. They have it too easy and need to be held to a certain standard. All road users should be. I firmly believe anyone over 16 who wants to cycle on public roads should have to do a theory test if they don't already have one for a car or motorcycle, complete some kind of basic training, and be legally responsible for following traffic laws.

    As a scooterist it pisses me off that I had to go through a lengthy, expensive and demanding process to get my motorcycle licence but cyclists can just jump on a bike and do whatever they want.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883
    geoffw said:

    Does Starmer have any redeeming features?

    His hairline?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,446
    Ratters said:

    eek said:

    Ratters said:

    DavidL said:

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    You're asking the wrong question. The question is do Labour MPs rate her because they are the ones that get the important votes in this process. And the answer seems to be yes. She is happy to swear at Tories and they like that. She is better at pretending to care. She indulges their fantasies a little better.

    Personally, she strikes me as being very much in the Liz Truss class of PM, so far out of her depth that the shore is out of sight, but no one cares what I think. Its what the 400 MPs think that matters at this stage.
    It really depends on whether she can delegate effectively. Or have a right-hand man or woman (like Osbourne to Cameron or Brown to Blair) who drives policy direction.

    What is undoubtable at this point is she's better at politics than Starmer. Not necessarily governing or policy, though it's a low bar.

    I was of the view Labour should wait until 2028 and give Raynor a short run at the next election. Increasingly I think Starmer needs to go sooner and have an alternative period of actually governing under new leadership.
    Labour hasn't delivered any reason to vote for them in the past 2 years. So they need to remove SKS AND deliver a reason for people to vote for them (and not Reform) before the mid to late 2028....
    Agreed. And the minimum viable time to deliver anything in those timeframes probably requires Starmer gone by this Autumn as even with the best leadership in the world it takes some time to competently implement changes.

    Sack him in two weeks and take the gamble.
    You reckon there's anyone in the PLP who (a) is a leader, (b) has some kind of vision for change and (c) is competent to implement it?
  • NEEEEEEEWWWWWWW THREEEEEEAAAADDDDDD !!!!!!!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    AnneJGP said:

    Can anyone explain to me the momentum behind Angela Rayner. I haven't seen any polling to suggest the public rate her. Am I wrong?

    The public don't get to choose.

    https://labourlist.org/2026/02/keir-starmer-wes-streeting-leadership-survation-poll/
    Not only that.

    Whoever comes next will have a humongous majority and, unlike Major or Brown, pretty much a blank slate, except for their internal election campaign.

    A shiny sixpence says that those who oppose Labour from the right, or from a Eurosceptic direction, aren't going to like it much.

    (One of the consequences of all those Conservative leadership elections, since 1997 really, has been a rightward drift as wannabes try to.ticklevthe tummy of the membership.)
    No centrist/Blairite/realist Labour will want to run on those banners for sure, and given there is no money that doesn't leave much apart from being a rejoin candidate. So final two may be a Blairite type hiding under the EU flag vs a magic money tree leftie.
    I thought the magic money tree had lost its magic.
    Never. It's just also paired with the reform fairy thesedays.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,896
    Trump TACOs again:https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/21/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-israel?post-id=cmo8wku7j00003b6sj7moklzk&t=1776802606247

    The ceasefire will continue until the negotiations are completed. Apparently.

    Well, that's a bit of good news. Hope plenty of people got into the futures market in time.

  • HYUFD said:

    However, if you choose to ride a motorbike or cycle on a busy main road you also have to accept that sadly you are significantly more likely to die or be seriously injured if in a crash than if you drove or were a passenger in a car or bus or taxi or walked on the pavement

    Interestingly, most KSI motorcycle crashes don't happen on main roads.

    It's the twisty rural roads that kill riders. Here in Scotland it's common to see headlines like "biker killed in crash on the B123 near Uchtermuchty. Police appeal for witnesses" all through the summer. It's common for bikers to park their bike over the winter and get it out when the sun starts to shine. They go blasting round the twisties and find out the hard way their skills and awareness have deteriorated since last year.

    These people inflate the statistics; motorcycling isn't nearly as dangerous as the numbers suggest. We give new riders just one day of training and let them take a 125cc bike out on the roads. No tests at all. But amazingly few of those riders get hurt, because they're aware of their inexperience and ride cautiously. Ride with care and you're much less likely to get hurt than even an experienced cyclist.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    edited April 21

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems oniversally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Very sad to hear this. So often we hear about a road casualty without ever understanding how big a hole the loss leaves in the lives of many around them.

    Cyclists have started coming out in numbers in my rural area due to the sunshine, and it's quite shocking to see how car drivers treat them with contempt. Some of the behaviour is appallingly egregious. I saw a knob end in a car overtake a group of cyclists on a tight corner, almost pushing them into the guard rail.

    Just yesterday I was out on my scooter and overtook a cyclist approaching a bend - safe on a two-foot wide scooter that has extreme agility and excellent acceleration, but the idiot behind me in a Range Rover decided to follow and nearly got taken out by a van coming round the corner.

    This country really needs harsher punishment for driving offences and some kind of regular mandatory competence check for drivers.
    Why? There are already death by dangerous driving, death by careless driving under the influence of drink and drugs or simple death by careless driving, serious injury by dangerous driving and serious injury by careless driving offences and standard dangerous and careless driving if no death or injury.

    Yet cyclists who kill pedestrians cannot be prosecuted for death by dangerous cycling or serious injury by careless cycling if they kill or seriously injure pedestrians. Only by a 19th century law with a maximum 2 year jail penalty compared to a maximum sentence of life imprisonment for offences after 2022 for dangerous drivers who cause the death of a cyclist, a pedestrian or another driver and 18 years jail maximum for offences committed pre 2022
    I didn't say more laws, but harsher punishment. Courts in the UK are notoriously lenient on bad drivers. The most recent example is the woman who caused an army land rover to crash, leaving the driver with a broken back. No jail time and only a one year ban.

    Or the TV presenter Holly Willoughby, who caused a scooter rider to break his neck. She got a fine and some points and never even had to show up in court. That's barely an inconvenience.

    Punishment for this kind of behaviour needs to hurt - lengthy bans, vehicle seizure and jail time if necessary - or drivers will keep doing it and cyclists, motorcyclists and pedestrians will keep getting hurt.

    And I do actually agree about cyclists. They have it too easy and need to be held to a certain standard. All road users should be. I firmly believe anyone over 16 who wants to cycle on public roads should have to do a theory test if they don't already have one for a car or motorcycle, complete some kind of basic training, and be legally responsible for following traffic laws.

    As a scooterist it pisses me off that I had to go through a lengthy, expensive and demanding process to get my motorcycle licence but cyclists can just jump on a bike and do whatever they want.
    Depends on the circumstances of the case, in the case of that woman she slowed down and moved from the outside to inside lane and the army vehicle took evasive action and crashed. She got a suspended sentence and driving ban for causing injury by careless driving but was not speeding, on her phone or drunk and the army vehicle was bigger than hers not a vulnerable user.

    Willoughby should have been charged with careless driving causing injury not just careless driving I agree. Yes have licenses for cyclists as well
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    edited April 21

    HYUFD said:

    However, if you choose to ride a motorbike or cycle on a busy main road you also have to accept that sadly you are significantly more likely to die or be seriously injured if in a crash than if you drove or were a passenger in a car or bus or taxi or walked on the pavement

    Interestingly, most KSI motorcycle crashes don't happen on main roads.

    It's the twisty rural roads that kill riders. Here in Scotland it's common to see headlines like "biker killed in crash on the B123 near Uchtermuchty. Police appeal for witnesses" all through the summer. It's common for bikers to park their bike over the winter and get it out when the sun starts to shine. They go blasting round the twisties and find out the hard way their skills and awareness have deteriorated since last year.

    These people inflate the statistics; motorcycling isn't nearly as dangerous as the numbers suggest. We give new riders just one day of training and let them take a 125cc bike out on the roads. No tests at all. But amazingly few of those riders get hurt, because they're aware of their inexperience and ride cautiously. Ride with care and you're much less likely to get hurt than even an experienced cyclist.
    A rural road is still effectively a main road, even if not a motorway or A road with a 60 mph limit.

    Yes ride with care but even the most experienced motorcyclist is more likely to be killed than the least experienced driver if in a crash
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    DavidL said:

    Trump TACOs again:https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/21/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-israel?post-id=cmo8wku7j00003b6sj7moklzk&t=1776802606247

    The ceasefire will continue until the negotiations are completed. Apparently.

    Well, that's a bit of good news. Hope plenty of people got into the futures market in time.

    Once a week its all about to end, once a week its gone wrong.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,450

    nico67 said:

    How much sway do these advisers have ?

    Don’t PMs have their own mind and Starmer could have simply said no , not happening .

    He could have made a political appointment from a choice of quite a few candidates who weren’t didn’t have the baggage of Mandelson .

    I’m not a fan of Osborne but he certainly wouldn’t have shamed the country .

    Karen Pierce seemed fine unless, and I suspect this is reality, Starmer and McSweeney thought a friend of Epstein would be just the ticket to manage Trump. That being the case that is a more compelling argument in favour of Mandelson that showering everyone else with shit when it blew up.
    People would criticise him for cynically taking advantage of an unpleasant situation (Mandelson’s closeness to Epstein).

    Although that’s kind of the job description…
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,226
    Apparently the Trump Administration is asking Congress to increase the military budget by 42%. That's a lot of extra borrowing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    edited April 21

    Apparently the Trump Administration is asking Congress to increase the military budget by 42%. That's a lot of extra borrowing.

    That's an awful lot of peace.

    Pax quaeritur bello.
This discussion has been closed.