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Yes, and if CCHQ offer B&S extra support and resource, I'd expect a Tory hold on that basis. If UKIP were ahead by 6-7% in this poll I'd think differently.Sean_F said:
I think everything comes down to the quality of the local constituency organisation in each case.Casino_Royale said:Not only does UKIP need to be ahead in these seats but they also need to get that vote all out. Past performance suggests this is where the Tories have an advantage, but that depends on how good 'safe' seats are at conducting regular canvasses and the Tories attention will be split over dozens of seats on election day.
The parties are neck and neck (even after adjustment for weighting) among voters aged under 65, but the Tories are ahead by 13% among those aged over 65.0 -
Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip
Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip0 -
The big difference between Survation and Ashcroft marginals polling is that the former has no political weighting. It has generally shown higher UKIP shares0
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Anyone noticed De La Rue's share price today ?
Up 6.5% after weeks of doing nothing....0 -
Cheers, you had me panicked there, wondering how I missed a 9% swing in the marginals.FrankBooth said:
Sorry I mean 4.5% swing. The ComRes ITV one the other day. Suggests Lab would gain 50 odd Tory seats.TheScreamingEagles said:
Which poll of the marginals showed a 9% Con to Lab swing in England?FrankBooth said:
The recent marginals poll showed a swing from Tory>Lab of 9%. Current England polling shows a swing nationally of about 9%. The marginals don't look very different to be honest.TheScreamingEagles said:Look at the relative Con to Lab swings here it might mean that the Tories don't need to be 11.4% ahead of Labour in England to stop seat losses to Lab.
Still doesn't dilute my initial observation.0 -
I'm not sure Neil Hamilton would have done much better.TheScreamingEagles said:
Just checked.Pulpstar said:
I rebacked Labour in P&RS to take out my stake.TheScreamingEagles said:When was the UKIP candidate in Boston selected?
Was it after the Survation poll?
I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?
Could also have implications North of the Border.
The Survation Boston polling was conducted start of September and saw a comfortable UKIP gain.
UKIP selected the 22 year as their candidate at the end of November
Lord Ashcroft polled end of Jan and found a Tory hold.
I reckon it is the age of the candidate.
I know, Post hoc ergo propter hoc0 -
The great thing about single constituency polling is that you can see how quite a lot of things that apply nationally have no bearing on local politics.Neil said:
His age didnt stop him from being elected to the County Council. I cant see it being that much of a negative for him.Tissue_Price said:
Not only is he 22, he looks about 17: http://www.bostonstandard.co.uk/news/local/exclusive-ukip-confirms-candidate-for-boston-and-skegness-1-6429680TheScreamingEagles said:When was the UKIP candidate in Boston selected?
Was it after the Survation poll?
I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?
Could also have implications North of the Border.
Fair play to him for being interested in politics, but I'm sure his age will swing a few votes away from him.
UKIP may be the party that attracts most hostility *nationally* but among Labour voters in the seats surveyed (and in Clacton and Rochester) far more are willing to switch to UKIP than to the Conservatives.
UKIP may lag among younger voters nationally, but have no difficulty attracting support from younger voters in these constituencies (it's the over 65's who give the Conservatives the edge).
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World of difference between electing a councillor and electing an MP. Well, for about 10% of the electorate, maybe :-)Neil said:
His age didnt stop him from being elected to the County Council. I cant see it being that much of a negative for him.Tissue_Price said:
Not only is he 22, he looks about 17: http://www.bostonstandard.co.uk/news/local/exclusive-ukip-confirms-candidate-for-boston-and-skegness-1-6429680TheScreamingEagles said:When was the UKIP candidate in Boston selected?
Was it after the Survation poll?
I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?
Could also have implications North of the Border.
Fair play to him for being interested in politics, but I'm sure his age will swing a few votes away from him.0 -
1.74:1 UKIP / CON Survation
1.15:1 UKIP / CON Lord Ashcroft0 -
Didn’t someone say the other day that even if they did print New Drachmas they wouldn’t get paid in anything worth having?Indigo said:Anyone noticed De La Rue's share price today ?
Up 6.5% after weeks of doing nothing....0 -
Funnily enough, looking through the Survation Boston polling, Neil Hamilton's name is mentioned before the VI questions!Casino_Royale said:
I'm not sure Neil Hamilton would have done much better.TheScreamingEagles said:
Just checked.Pulpstar said:
I rebacked Labour in P&RS to take out my stake.TheScreamingEagles said:When was the UKIP candidate in Boston selected?
Was it after the Survation poll?
I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?
Could also have implications North of the Border.
The Survation Boston polling was conducted start of September and saw a comfortable UKIP gain.
UKIP selected the 22 year as their candidate at the end of November
Lord Ashcroft polled end of Jan and found a Tory hold.
I reckon it is the age of the candidate.
I know, Post hoc ergo propter hoc0 -
Incidentally, Anthony Wells has updated his rolling average, which moves back slightly to Con 32%, Lab 33%.0
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Isam
I'm on my mobile, so can't zoom in properlyisam said:
What were the unweighted scores in survations poll?TheScreamingEagles said:When was the UKIP candidate in Boston selected?
Was it after the Survation poll?
I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?
Could also have implications North of the Border.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Boston-Skegness-Results.pdf0 -
Not sure we can conclude much more than that they're all marginal except for NE Cambs - the assumptions on turnout and reversion of doubtfuls to former party are very difficult to assess in this sort of situation. As with the SNP in Scotland, the UKIP support contains lots of non-voters from 2010, who seem keen to vote this time - whether we believe them or not is pretty much guesswork.
South Basildon does look like a fun place for open-minded types keen to have a nice choice of possible winners...0 -
Changes in the odds:
Boston & Skegness Con 11/8 -> 8/11
Castle Point: Con Evens -> 8/11
Basildon & SE Thurrock Con 4/7 -> 4/9
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I think we could be heading for one of the strangest elections since the 1922-24 period, with wild swings in individual constituencies.NickPalmer said:Not sure we can conclude much more than that they're all marginal except for NE Cambs - the assumptions on turnout and reversion of doubtfuls to former party are very difficult to assess in this sort of situation. As with the SNP in Scotland, the UKIP support contains lots of non-voters from 2010, who seem keen to vote this time - whether we believe them or not is pretty much guesswork.
South Basildon does look like a fun place for open-minded types keen to have a nice choice of possible winners...
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Didn't take long for someone to smear Farage over the Chelsea story.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2959280/Former-public-schoolboy-season-ticket-holder-one-fans-train-racist-football-thugs-claims-friend-Twitter.html-1 -
Magic Sign has gone Conservative FAVOURITE in Boston.
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I know how it works. You ask people for their 2010 VI, and weight the sample so it reflects the actual GE2010 result in the same population.OblitusSumMe said:
That's not how past-vote weighting works.Indigo said:In GE2010 the kipper had 919,000 people voting for them, if we take a 15% figure this time and a similar turn out, they are going to have around 4 million people voting for them.
Expecting those extra 3m+ voters to fall in the same places and proportions as the original 919k voters from GE2010, especially since most of the GE2010 intake were Tories, and more than half of those since are ex-Labour, and a lot of the rest are NOTA LDs, is a massive stretch I think. VI weighting being tested to destruction imo.
Since the number of kippers has quadrupled, more or less, the vast majority of them voted for someone other than UKIP in GE2010, so weighting them to a GE2010 is a nonsense, it means you are dropping loads of kippers from the sample because there were a lot less kippers then.
It will be even more odd with the Green vote, think of all those constituencies which have maybe 2-3 thousand Green voters now, but didn't even have a Green candidate last time around, weighting them down, or in any direction based on GE2010 would be very odd (and I am fairly sure pollsters don't do it).
That is the crux though, if you don't weight a sample because their was no Green candidate, why weight a sample quite heavily because their was a kipper candidate last time but almost no one had heard of him. By all means feel complacent, but those four million kipper voters have to go somewhere, they cant be weighted down in all constituencies.0 -
South Basildon might still be good prospect for UKIP. Candidate is ex-Lord Mayor of London, former president of the Institute of Taxation and someone I know well.0
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I wanted to see Thurrock. Everyone seems to think it will be a shoo-in for UKIP. I doubt it.0
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No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.Sean_F said:
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-Flightpath said:
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.isam said:
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.0 -
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So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole populationisam said:Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip
Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
Raw figures for all future polls please. OTOH it might be a good day to bet on UKIP in these seats as the odds have lengthened in response to these polls.0 -
Eagle
"Parsons, a former pupil at the £30,000 a year Millfield public school, works as an assistant at the financial services firm, the Business and Commercial Finance Club in Mayfair."
Just seeing an ex Millfield schoolboy drinking with Farage is surprising enough.... the one thing I can vouch for is that the ethos of Millfield uniquely among public schools was the antithesis of racist. No other school at the time-even state schools-had more ethnic minorities (though many were crown princes and the children of foreign dignitaries) .
And had anyone shown any signs of racism they would have been expelled (It was the socialists they disliked!)0 -
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole populationisam said:Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip
Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.0 -
Now you're blaming Lynton Crosby? You're all over the place this morning, Flightpath.Flightpath said:
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.0 -
Oh dear
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11422472/PricewaterhouseCoopers-accused-of-tax-avoidance-on-industrial-scale-by-Labour-MP.htmlMargaret Hodge says PricewaterhouseCoopers takes part in 'tax avoidance on industrial scale' as figures show it was Labour’s biggest non-union donor
Would this be the same Labour whose leader, and prospective Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury told the House of Common only last week that that Labour Party had not accepted any donations from tax avoiders, not on his watch ?0 -
I've switched my position in Boston... which some might call an overreaction - but run winners & cutting losers is a betting maxim I've heard from somewhere...0
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People will think I am lying but I know many people who are voting Ukip but wouldn't admit to it in polite company... Even myself to a certain extentNickPalmer said:Not sure we can conclude much more than that they're all marginal except for NE Cambs - the assumptions on turnout and reversion of doubtfuls to former party are very difficult to assess in this sort of situation. As with the SNP in Scotland, the UKIP support contains lots of non-voters from 2010, who seem keen to vote this time - whether we believe them or not is pretty much guesswork.
South Basildon does look like a fun place for open-minded types keen to have a nice choice of possible winners...
I work in partnership with a Dutch guy and went to his place after my Ukip candidate interview on a Sunday morning in a suit... He was 'wtf are you doing in a suit' and after a lot if trying to change the subject I told him. As he has a middle eastern fiancée and an Owen jones book on the shelf I was worried this could be the end! But he was cool with it and is pretty anti establishment politics anyway
My best mates are voting Ukip but say don't know if people ask. Who can blame them when everyone from other parties says you must be racist/sexist/homophobic to do so?0 -
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And not doing raw unweighted numbers will be the reason why they will get it horribly wrong in 2015.TheScreamingEagles said:
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole populationisam said:Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip
Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
No point weighting against past voting patterns if the voters have decided to radically change their voting patterns more than at any time since the 1920s0 -
"A sight to make surrounding nations stare,Neil said:
His age didnt stop him from being elected to the County Council. I cant see it being that much of a negative for him.Tissue_Price said:
Not only is he 22, he looks about 17: http://www.bostonstandard.co.uk/news/local/exclusive-ukip-confirms-candidate-for-boston-and-skegness-1-6429680TheScreamingEagles said:When was the UKIP candidate in Boston selected?
Was it after the Survation poll?
I'm trying to reconcile the difference between Survation and Lord Ashcroft, and I'm wondering are the voters put off by having a 22 year old candidate?
Could also have implications North of the Border.
Fair play to him for being interested in politics, but I'm sure his age will swing a few votes away from him.
A kingdom entrusted to a schoolboy's care"0 -
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.Flightpath said:
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.Sean_F said:
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-Flightpath said:
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.isam said:
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
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Might still be a good prospect?? They are ahead before the weightingsMikeSmithson said:South Basildon might still be good prospect for UKIP. Candidate is ex-Lord Mayor of London, former president of the Institute of Taxation and someone I know well.
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@TelePolitics: Biggest non-union donor to Ed Miliband's party guilty of 'tax avoidance', says Labour MP http://t.co/WUlN1JLd15
Heart of stone...0 -
Is it a good time to point out that in the Clacton and Rochester & Strood by elections, Lord Ashcroft was closer to the actual result than Survation.0
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Courage of convictions?isam said:
People will think I am lying but I know many people who are voting Ukip but wouldn't admit to it in polite company... Even myself to a certain extentNickPalmer said:Not sure we can conclude much more than that they're all marginal except for NE Cambs - the assumptions on turnout and reversion of doubtfuls to former party are very difficult to assess in this sort of situation. As with the SNP in Scotland, the UKIP support contains lots of non-voters from 2010, who seem keen to vote this time - whether we believe them or not is pretty much guesswork.
South Basildon does look like a fun place for open-minded types keen to have a nice choice of possible winners...
I work in partnership with a Dutch guy and went to his place after my Ukip candidate interview on a Sunday morning in a suit... He was 'wtf are you doing in a suit' and after a lot if trying to change the subject I told him. As he has a middle eastern fiancée and an Owen jones book on the shelf I was worried this could be the end! But he was cool with it and is pretty anti establishment politics anyway
My best mates are voting Ukip but say don't know if people ask. Who can blame them when everyone from other parties says you must be racist/sexist/homophobic to do so?0 -
I don't get the point that Marquee Mark and TSE are making about these polls suggesting an advantage for the Conservatives in their vote distribution vis a vis Labour.
The average Con to Lab swing according to the GB polls appears to be 4%, and in England a little higher at about 5%.
The Con to Lab swing in these 4 seats is 3.5%, 4%, 2.5% and 3% respectively. This means Labour is under-performing the national swing in these seats. This is good for Labour, because they are doing relatively worse in seats they are not going to win i.e. they are wasting fewer votes.
That means they must be doing better in other seats to make up for this relative under-performance. Now, it is eminently possible that Labour will outperform in their safe seats, leading to more inefficiency in their vote, but these polls do not provide any evidence for this.0 -
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I think the wail are on very thin ice here. All we actually appear to know is that social media users claim he is a person photoed on a paris underground train on which an altercation allegedly took place. No one appears to have any evidence as to exactly who was involved in the altercation and who was chanting offensively.Roger said:Eagle
Just seeing an ex Millfield schoolboy drinking with Farage is surprising enough.... the one thing I can vouch for is that the ethos of Millfield uniquely among public schools was the antithesis of racist. No other school at the time-even state schools-had more ethnic minorities (though many were crown princes and the children of foreign dignitaries) .
And had anyone shown any signs of racism they would have been expelled (It was the socialists they disliked!)
So unless someone has invented a criminal offence of "being on an underground train with a racist", this guy appears to me to be getting the Christopher Jeffries treatment.
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You are frothing, old boy.Flightpath said:
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.Sean_F said:
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-Flightpath said:
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.isam said:
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
The French for "surprise" is "surprise"*. "Fromage" means "cheese".
*But they say it different.0 -
As I've said, Lord Ashcroft got the Clacton and Rochester & Strood by elections closer than Survation.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
And not doing raw unweighted numbers will be the reason why they will get it horribly wrong in 2015.TheScreamingEagles said:
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole populationisam said:Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip
Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
No point weighting against past voting patterns if the voters have decided to radically change their voting patterns more than at any time since the 1920s
As Mike said down below
"The big difference between Survation and Ashcroft marginals polling is that the former has no political weighting. It has generally shown higher UKIP shares"
Edit: I've just realised you're the chap who said last night, people think the second Lord Ashcroft question is about local council elections. I should have realised0 -
''UKIP BOYS. What a geezer!''Paul_Mid_Beds said:Didn't take long for someone to smear Farage over the Chelsea story.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2959280/Former-public-schoolboy-season-ticket-holder-one-fans-train-racist-football-thugs-claims-friend-Twitter.html0 -
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?Sean_F said:
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.Flightpath said:
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.Sean_F said:
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-Flightpath said:
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.isam said:
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.0 -
but still out by a rather wider margin than the Tory lead in three of the four seats in Ashcrofts poll today if I recall.TheScreamingEagles said:Is it a good time to point out that in the Clacton and Rochester & Strood by elections, Lord Ashcroft was closer to the actual result than Survation.
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Your gist might be right, although I could not possibly comment. But the phrasing is not quite right. The print job would have some very large numbers on it.MarqueeMark said:0 -
Too much read into too small a sample size... There have only been 7 elections in 30 years.TheScreamingEagles said:
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole populationisam said:Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip
Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
I know you think in a complete numptie with stats etc but I do analyse stats and bet on the results for a living, and am relatively successful at it. The fact is that this election is unlike others because if the SNP and Ukip effect as well as the lib dem drop. I could be wrong but I think there is a big chance the pollsters are wingjng it on Unchartered territory.
Put it this way, I bet in in running cricket a lot and if I used the 2007 model to trade today's fixtures I'd back the side to defend every time and lose overall. So models need to be flexible and change with time0 -
Paul
"So unless someone has invented a criminal offence of "being on an underground train with a racist", this guy appears to me to be getting the Christopher Jeffries treatment."
Possibly but the photo of him sharing a pint with Farage and being one of only four possible suspects in that carriage makes a pretty convincing prima facie case0 -
I wonder what he'd make (to take a purely hypothetical example) of a Tory MP wearing a Nazi uniform at a stag night.Neil said:
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?Sean_F said:
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.Flightpath said:
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.Sean_F said:
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-Flightpath said:
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.isam said:
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
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Might the Labour vote be too big to squeeze?MikeSmithson said:South Basildon might still be good prospect for UKIP. Candidate is ex-Lord Mayor of London, former president of the Institute of Taxation and someone I know well.
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It reads like he is trying to type with one hand....Neil said:
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?Sean_F said:
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.Flightpath said:
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.Sean_F said:
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-Flightpath said:
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.isam said:
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.0 -
One $50 million currency deal wouldn't push the price up that much. And I'd be surprised if you could rush a printing job on that scale through quickly. Never mind making up the plates, they have to make the paper first at the Bathford mill.MarqueeMark said:0 -
Aren't you the know-all who once read a Ben Goldacre column and are therefore rather against drawing conclusions from insufficient evidence, succumbing to confirmation bias, and believing what you read in the Daily Mail? What precisely are you claiming you "couldn't make up"?logical_song said:
0 -
Sean
"I wonder what he'd make (to take a purely hypothetical example) of a Tory MP wearing a Nazi uniform at a stag night."
He'd probably say 'Neil, nice to see you. How's Christine?'
0 -
One wonders why there are no reports of him contacting Chelsea management to tell them all he knows.Neil said:
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?Sean_F said:
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.Flightpath said:
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.Sean_F said:
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-Flightpath said:
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.isam said:
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
Unless I’ve missed something, in which case I apologise in advance for the interpretation.0 -
If Farage had not talked about traffic jams about tube travellers about rough diamonds and his supporters had not talked about ting tongs and sluts and... ah well to be fair it is all a bit boring isn't it when you list out all the dog whistles. There would be no need to 'wind people up'. As it is just when despite all of that just when you think St Nige cannot possibly be linked to any more crass stupidity and maybe you were wrong to suggest it in the first place - there it comes up again.Neil said:
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?Sean_F said:
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.Flightpath said:
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.Sean_F said:
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-Flightpath said:
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.isam said:
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
0 -
Don't get too excited.Flightpath said:
Your gist might be right, although I could not possibly comment. But the phrasing is not quite right. The print job would have some very large numbers on it.MarqueeMark said:
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2957390/MARKET-REPORT-Rumours-757m-bid-Oberthur-private-equity-group-lift-La-Rue-shares.html
The prospect of £ notes being printed by a French owned company, could drive the Kippers into a frenzy.
0 -
Or indeed a councillor that referred to 'frogs', 'ragheads' and 'sons of camel drivers' on his social media, but still appears to be on the council, and after previously having been suspended for describing people as "jungle bunnies"Sean_F said:
I wonder what he'd make (to take a purely hypothetical example) of a Tory MP wearing a Nazi uniform at a stag night.Neil said:
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?Sean_F said:
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.Flightpath said:
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.Sean_F said:
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-Flightpath said:
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.isam said:
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/deal/news/bob-frost-accused-of-racism-15560/
http://www.deal.gov.uk/Deal-TC/councillors-13588.aspx0 -
Mange tout I never knew that!Ishmael_X said:
You are frothing, old boy.Flightpath said:
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.Sean_F said:
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-Flightpath said:
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.isam said:
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
The French for "surprise" is "surprise"*. "Fromage" means "cheese".
*But they say it different.0 -
Or maybe "Hello Ed, how is Yvette?"Roger said:Sean
"I wonder what he'd make (to take a purely hypothetical example) of a Tory MP wearing a Nazi uniform at a stag night."
He'd probably say 'Neil, nice to see you. How's Christine?'0 -
Er, no it doesn't, because you weight respondents on their past vote, not their current vote.Indigo said:
I know how it works. You ask people for their 2010 VI, and weight the sample so it reflects the actual GE2010 result in the same population.OblitusSumMe said:
That's not how past-vote weighting works.Indigo said:In GE2010 the kipper had 919,000 people voting for them, if we take a 15% figure this time and a similar turn out, they are going to have around 4 million people voting for them.
Expecting those extra 3m+ voters to fall in the same places and proportions as the original 919k voters from GE2010, especially since most of the GE2010 intake were Tories, and more than half of those since are ex-Labour, and a lot of the rest are NOTA LDs, is a massive stretch I think. VI weighting being tested to destruction imo.
Since the number of kippers has quadrupled, more or less, the vast majority of them voted for someone other than UKIP in GE2010, so weighting them to a GE2010 is a nonsense, it means you are dropping loads of kippers from the sample because there were a lot less kippers then.
A problem would occur if there is false recall, which might happen if new UKIP voters are so ashamed of their former vote that they tell the pollsters they voted UKIP in 2010 too.
I think you are thinking about the party ID weighting, which is a different kettle of fish entirely.0 -
Farage hasn't been linked to anything, except in what passes for your mind.Flightpath said:
If Farage had not talked about traffic jams about tube travellers about rough diamonds and his supporters had not talked about ting tongs and sluts and... ah well to be fair it is all a bit boring isn't it when you list out all the dog whistles. There would be no need to 'wind people up'. As it is just when despite all of that just when you think St Nige cannot possibly be linked to any more crass stupidity and maybe you were wrong to suggest it in the first place - there it comes up again.Neil said:
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?Sean_F said:
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.Flightpath said:
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.Sean_F said:
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-Flightpath said:
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.isam said:
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
0 -
Keep defending him. What a joker you are. Don't like it up 'em thats you.Sean_F said:
Farage hasn't been linked to anything, except in what passes for your mind.Flightpath said:
If Farage had not talked about traffic jams about tube travellers about rough diamonds and his supporters had not talked about ting tongs and sluts and... ah well to be fair it is all a bit boring isn't it when you list out all the dog whistles. There would be no need to 'wind people up'. As it is just when despite all of that just when you think St Nige cannot possibly be linked to any more crass stupidity and maybe you were wrong to suggest it in the first place - there it comes up again.Neil said:
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?Sean_F said:
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.Flightpath said:
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.Sean_F said:
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-Flightpath said:
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.isam said:
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.0 -
That's what my first paragraph said. ask people who they voted for in 2010, then weight the sample according to what the people in the survey population (ie the constituency) actually voted in GE2010.OblitusSumMe said:
Er, no it doesn't, because you weight respondents on their past vote, not their current vote.Indigo said:
I know how it works. You ask people for their 2010 VI, and weight the sample so it reflects the actual GE2010 result in the same population.OblitusSumMe said:
That's not how past-vote weighting works.Indigo said:In GE2010 the kipper had 919,000 people voting for them, if we take a 15% figure this time and a similar turn out, they are going to have around 4 million people voting for them.
Expecting those extra 3m+ voters to fall in the same places and proportions as the original 919k voters from GE2010, especially since most of the GE2010 intake were Tories, and more than half of those since are ex-Labour, and a lot of the rest are NOTA LDs, is a massive stretch I think. VI weighting being tested to destruction imo.
Since the number of kippers has quadrupled, more or less, the vast majority of them voted for someone other than UKIP in GE2010, so weighting them to a GE2010 is a nonsense, it means you are dropping loads of kippers from the sample because there were a lot less kippers then.
A problem would occur if there is false recall, which might happen if new UKIP voters are so ashamed of their former vote that they tell the pollsters they voted UKIP in 2010 too.
I think you are thinking about the party ID weighting, which is a different kettle of fish entirely.0 -
What is it with you and Lynton Crosby this morning?Flightpath said:ah well to be fair it is all a bit boring isn't it when you list out all the dog whistles
0 -
Part-ELBOW so far this week (inc. last night's YG).
Lab lead 1.5%, the same as for the full ELBOW for last week.
Meanwhile, LDs are on 8.0% for the first time since October, with a 1.5% lead over the Greens (highest since Christmas).0 -
I suggest you take the beam out of your own eye first.Flightpath said:
Keep defending him. What a joker you are. Don't like it up 'em thats you.Sean_F said:
Farage hasn't been linked to anything, except in what passes for your mind.Flightpath said:
If Farage had not talked about traffic jams about tube travellers about rough diamonds and his supporters had not talked about ting tongs and sluts and... ah well to be fair it is all a bit boring isn't it when you list out all the dog whistles. There would be no need to 'wind people up'. As it is just when despite all of that just when you think St Nige cannot possibly be linked to any more crass stupidity and maybe you were wrong to suggest it in the first place - there it comes up again.Neil said:
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?Sean_F said:
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.Flightpath said:
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.Sean_F said:
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-Flightpath said:
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.isam said:
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
0 -
Weren't you only the other day, trying to create a whole new meme, based on three occurrences.isam said:
Too much read into too small a sample size... There have only been 7 elections in 30 years.TheScreamingEagles said:
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole populationisam said:Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip
Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
I know you think in a complete numptie with stats etc but I do analyse stats and bet on the results for a living, and am relatively successful at it. The fact is that this election is unlike others because if the SNP and Ukip effect as well as the lib dem drop. I could be wrong but I think there is a big chance the pollsters are wingjng it on Unchartered territory.
Put it this way, I bet in in running cricket a lot and if I used the 2007 model to trade today's fixtures I'd back the side to defend every time and lose overall. So models need to be flexible and change with time
The pollsters do and are adapting all the time, they constantly check and update.
I look at the Indyref, new and uncharted territory, a lot of them got it within 1-2%.
A while back Kippers said, we should ignore the pollsters that don't prompt for UKIP, because Survation did, and Survation had the highest scores for UKIP. I said it wasn't prompting but a fundamental methodology choice by Survation that saw them get the highest UKIP share.
So other pollsters started prompting, and lo and behold, no real change in UKIP's share.
0 -
Germany stuns markets in rejecting Greek offer for bail-out extension
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11422438/Greece-faces-off-with-creditors-live.html
sh*t --------> fan0 -
But, Rog, I can count seven faces in that picture and my strong guess is that the other bits of stuff you can see behind them are bits of other people.Roger said:Paul
"So unless someone has invented a criminal offence of "being on an underground train with a racist", this guy appears to me to be getting the Christopher Jeffries treatment."
Possibly but the photo of him sharing a pint with Farage and being one of only four possible suspects in that carriage makes a pretty convincing prima facie case
Furthermore if you look at the picture which does seem to show a black man on the platform confronting someone on the train you will see that the someone on the train is in bright blue. No one in the other picture is in bright blue. (Nor do they seem to be chanting, incidentally). Therefore the probability is that the carriage with Parsons in is not the carriage in which the incident occurred.
Perhaps you meant "a pretty convincing prima facie case of no case to answer".0 -
It wasnt just kippers. How anyone thought any company was going to get a contract worth a present value of tens of millions of pounds out of the Greeks (how many drachmas were they going to be printing?!) these days is beyond me but it was fun while it lasted.TheWatcher said:
The prospect of £ notes being printed by a French owned company, could drive the Kippers into a frenzy.
0 -
What was it you said about Kerry Smith, I've been racking my brains trying to remember.Sean_F said:
He'd probably start singing the Horst Wesel Leid.Roger said:Sean
"I wonder what he'd make (to take a purely hypothetical example) of a Tory MP wearing a Nazi uniform at a stag night."
He'd probably say 'Neil, nice to see you. How's Christine?'
I think you said something he had written/said was like Horst Wesel song, and someone said he wasn't that intelligent.0 -
I still think they should take B&S, but I would've thought they'd be miles ahead there.0
-
-
Mr. Indigo, not sure I'd see anything wrong with calling the frogs frogs, anymore than I'd be irked to be called a rosbif (which, I gather, is French for 'clearly superior Anglo-Saxon').0
-
Me neither, although the other terms might be a little close to the knuckle. But the point is people who what to slam other parties for questionable language/behaviour/donors(!) etc probably should make sure their own house is in order first.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, not sure I'd see anything wrong with calling the frogs frogs, anymore than I'd be irked to be called a rosbif (which, I gather, is French for 'clearly superior Anglo-Saxon').
0 -
No one or no-one are the only acceptable spellings.Neil said:
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?Sean_F said:
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.Flightpath said:
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.Sean_F said:
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-Flightpath said:
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.isam said:
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.0 -
One of the reasons I learned French at school, was so I could mock les grenouilles in their own language.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, not sure I'd see anything wrong with calling the frogs frogs, anymore than I'd be irked to be called a rosbif (which, I gather, is French for 'clearly superior Anglo-Saxon').
They hate the Rosbification of their language.0 -
It was "Germans" by the Macc Lads.TheScreamingEagles said:
What was it you said about Kerry Smith, I've been racking my brains trying to remember.Sean_F said:
He'd probably start singing the Horst Wesel Leid.Roger said:Sean
"I wonder what he'd make (to take a purely hypothetical example) of a Tory MP wearing a Nazi uniform at a stag night."
He'd probably say 'Neil, nice to see you. How's Christine?'
I think you said something he had written/said was like Horst Wesel song, and someone said he wasn't that intelligent.
http://www.macclads.co.uk/hectic_house/lyrics/lyrics_alpha/germ.html
I said to one prominent Conservative that it read like a speech being given by Kerry Smith. The reply was "he's not that articulate."
0 -
He's not particularly funny, maybe he's serious after all?FalseFlag said:
No one or no-one are the only acceptable spellings.Neil said:
One can only assume / hope that Flightpath is attempting to wind people up. Noone can be that bad, can they?Sean_F said:
Okay. He's not accused of anything, but you *know* he's guilty anyway, and you know Farage is guilty too, because they were photographed together.Flightpath said:
No. He was photographed surrounded by those who did. And he was shocked I tell you shocked. And then quelle fromage, there he is supping with Nigel. Rotten luck. But then again ''UKIP BOYS! What a geezer''.Sean_F said:
I reiterate, for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension:-Flightpath said:
Grow up and accept your own party's shortcomings.isam said:
Yeah he comes across as a real wrongun doesn't he?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard this on social media last night, and I though nah.
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE Nigel Farage with posh lad in Chelsea fans Paris storm http://t.co/bEHgKxeeOX
Surrounded by racists one minute, and by Farage another. Poor bloke. Just a rough diamond.
Remind me what did Farage say about being uncomfortable on the underground?
"There is no suggestion at present that he was involved in either the pushing or the chanting but he could be a vital witness in the inquiry".
BTW
a good reason for not giving 17 year olds the vote comes from a now deleted tweet by a 17 year old from that same carriage ''Our captain is a racist a racist a racist and that is why we love him we love him we love him''
If you want to see the results of dog whistles there it is.
Let's just hope you never sit on a jury.
0 -
It looks as if the German government are going to make Syriza walk barefoot to Canossa.0
-
Cheers.Sean_F said:
It was "Germans" by the Macc Lads.TheScreamingEagles said:
What was it you said about Kerry Smith, I've been racking my brains trying to remember.Sean_F said:
He'd probably start singing the Horst Wesel Leid.Roger said:Sean
"I wonder what he'd make (to take a purely hypothetical example) of a Tory MP wearing a Nazi uniform at a stag night."
He'd probably say 'Neil, nice to see you. How's Christine?'
I think you said something he had written/said was like Horst Wesel song, and someone said he wasn't that intelligent.
http://www.macclads.co.uk/hectic_house/lyrics/lyrics_alpha/germ.html
I said to one prominent Conservative that it read like a speech being given by Kerry Smith. The reply was "he's not that articulate."
0 -
FPT:
Peter_the_Punter said:
» show previous quotes
There's certainly some comfort for the Tories in these polls.
They rather confirm and small easing off of support for UKIP. That eases things generally for the Conservatives in England.
Sporting Index's spread of 6-8 looks about right now, though of course that factors in high-side risk, so 4 or 5 seats currently looks like the correct projection.
-----------------------------------------------------------
I see that Mr Senior is getting excited - again. Remember the snapshot meme. I bet that 3 of these seats fall to UKIP at the actual GE. £100 evens sez so, to you and Mr Senior only.0 -
No idea what you are talking about regarding a meme, I certainly have never tried to create oneTheScreamingEagles said:
Weren't you only the other day, trying to create a whole new meme, based on three occurrences.isam said:
Too much read into too small a sample size... There have only been 7 elections in 30 years.TheScreamingEagles said:
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole populationisam said:Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip
Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
I know you think in a complete numptie with stats etc but I do analyse stats and bet on the results for a living, and am relatively successful at it. The fact is that this election is unlike others because if the SNP and Ukip effect as well as the lib dem drop. I could be wrong but I think there is a big chance the pollsters are wingjng it on Unchartered territory.
Put it this way, I bet in in running cricket a lot and if I used the 2007 model to trade today's fixtures I'd back the side to defend every time and lose overall. So models need to be flexible and change with time
The pollsters do and are adapting all the time, they constantly check and update.
I look at the Indyref, new and uncharted territory, a lot of them got it within 1-2%.
A while back Kippers said, we should ignore the pollsters that don't prompt for UKIP, because Survation did, and Survation had the highest scores for UKIP. I said it wasn't prompting but a fundamental methodology choice by Survation that saw them get the highest UKIP share.
So other pollsters started prompting, and lo and behold, no real change in UKIP's share.
I don't know who said we should ignore those who don't prompt for Ukip, it wasn't me, so is completely irrelevant to the point I was making
Do you only cash out for profit? Or sometimes when it's going wrong too to cut out a loss?
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I learnt French AND GermanTheScreamingEagles said:
One of the reasons I learned French at school, was so I could mock les grenouilles in their own language.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, not sure I'd see anything wrong with calling the frogs frogs, anymore than I'd be irked to be called a rosbif (which, I gather, is French for 'clearly superior Anglo-Saxon').
They hate the Rosbification of their language.
(up to GCSE level, at any rate!)0 -
Following the Telegraph live blog, is looks like Greece went most of the way toward what was required, most of the correspondents thought it would be accepted, then Berlin blew it out of the water. Now it gets interesting, what happens if Madrid, Rome etc. accept it.antifrank said:It looks as if the German government are going to make Syriza walk barefoot to Canossa.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11422438/Greece-faces-off-with-creditors-live.html0 -
I basically agree with this point of view about the next election.isam said:
Too much read into too small a sample size... There have only been 7 elections in 30 years.TheScreamingEagles said:
You do realise using raw, unweighted numbers is the reasons why the pollsters got it horribly wrong in 1992.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
So are you saying that the actual raw numbers show a UKIP win but the polls have been adjusted because they think the people they actually spoke to were not representative of the whole populationisam said:Survation Boston raw numbers inc dks 29-17 Ukip
Ashcroft 26-22 Ukip
eg in crude terms they thought a dispropotionate amount of people asked were from the council estate and not enough from the luxury bungalows up the hill so they adjusted the poll in favour of the tories.
If so the problem with that is that old rules for weighting are surely out of the window as the fracturing of the three party cartel is cutting across usual voting patterns.
I know you think in a complete numptie with stats etc but I do analyse stats and bet on the results for a living, and am relatively successful at it. The fact is that this election is unlike others because if the SNP and Ukip effect as well as the lib dem drop. I could be wrong but I think there is a big chance the pollsters are wingjng it on Unchartered territory.
Put it this way, I bet in in running cricket a lot and if I used the 2007 model to trade today's fixtures I'd back the side to defend every time and lose overall. So models need to be flexible and change with time0 -
Plucky Greeks standing up to
The Fourth ReichEU?0 -
The striking thing about those polls above for me is the labour share of the vote. Flatlining or lower than 2010's miserable performance.0
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UKIP don't seem to be trying in NE Cambridgeshire.
"Q.8 I would like to ask whether any of the main political parties have contacted you over the last few weeks - whether by delivering leaflets or newspapers, sending personally addressed letters, emailing, telephoning you at home or knocking on your door. Have you heard in any of these ways from...? Base: All respondents"
Boston: Con 7%, UKIP 11%
Castle Point: Con 7%, UKIP 20%
NE Cambs: Con 7%, UKIP 4%
S. Basildon: Con 18%, UKIP 22% (Labour 18%)0 -
Right, so how does that lead to underestimating UKIP support, given that present UKIP supporters are being weighted on the basis of their past vote in 2010 for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats?Indigo said:
That's what my first paragraph said. ask people who they voted for in 2010, then weight the sample according to what the people in the survey population (ie the constituency) actually voted in GE2010.OblitusSumMe said:
Er, no it doesn't, because you weight respondents on their past vote, not their current vote.Indigo said:
I know how it works. You ask people for their 2010 VI, and weight the sample so it reflects the actual GE2010 result in the same population.OblitusSumMe said:
That's not how past-vote weighting works.Indigo said:In GE2010 the kipper had 919,000 people voting for them, if we take a 15% figure this time and a similar turn out, they are going to have around 4 million people voting for them.
Expecting those extra 3m+ voters to fall in the same places and proportions as the original 919k voters from GE2010, especially since most of the GE2010 intake were Tories, and more than half of those since are ex-Labour, and a lot of the rest are NOTA LDs, is a massive stretch I think. VI weighting being tested to destruction imo.
Since the number of kippers has quadrupled, more or less, the vast majority of them voted for someone other than UKIP in GE2010, so weighting them to a GE2010 is a nonsense, it means you are dropping loads of kippers from the sample because there were a lot less kippers then.
A problem would occur if there is false recall, which might happen if new UKIP voters are so ashamed of their former vote that they tell the pollsters they voted UKIP in 2010 too.
I think you are thinking about the party ID weighting, which is a different kettle of fish entirely.0 -
Plucky Greeks standing up to The Fourth Reich EU?
If you owe someone a lot of money and can't really pay it back, the last thing you do is go and call that person a c*nt.0 -
I learnt French, German and Latin at school, plus I can speak, inter alia, Urdu and PunjabiSunil_Prasannan said:
I learnt French AND GermanTheScreamingEagles said:
One of the reasons I learned French at school, was so I could mock les grenouilles in their own language.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, not sure I'd see anything wrong with calling the frogs frogs, anymore than I'd be irked to be called a rosbif (which, I gather, is French for 'clearly superior Anglo-Saxon').
They hate the Rosbification of their language.
(up to GCSE level, at any rate!)0
This discussion has been closed.