Got to ask how much of this is because of the complexity of getting through European border control
How bad could it possibly be? I've only used it once in the last 10 years and maybe I got lucky or didn't know any better, but it hardly seemed that much of a chore. But I guess frequent travellers feel the pain much more - when I was abroad last year this Brit and their Belgian friend immediately quizzed me about what I thought about Brexit* and had a good old laugh about (apparent) examples of Brits being shocked and irritated by border control processes.
*I honestly thought such things only happened in stories
Point of order: the oldest baby boomers are 80 now.
I got de-threaded- at the end of the previous thread I said this: It would be interesting to see figures on the cost of just pensions to the state, and on when the drop-off of us oldies dying off kicks in, how quickly, and the impact that will have.
It doesn't, from Fidelity "The longer-term trend is clear. The Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast that the total pensioner spending could rise to around 8% of GDP by 2072/73 - and potentially even more if the economy continues to suffer weaker and more volatile growth."
NEW: Raskin, w/ 50 House Dem co-sponsors, formally introduces a bill which would create a commission to assess Trump's fitness for office under the 25th Amendment.
NEW: Raskin, w/ 50 House Dem co-sponsors, formally introduces a bill which would create a commission to assess Trump's fitness for office under the 25th Amendment.
NEW: Raskin, w/ 50 House Dem co-sponsors, formally introduces a bill which would create a commission to assess Trump's fitness for office under the 25th Amendment.
Point of order: the oldest baby boomers are 80 now.
I got de-threaded- at the end of the previous thread I said this: It would be interesting to see figures on the cost of just pensions to the state, and on when the drop-off of us oldies dying off kicks in, how quickly, and the impact that will have.
It doesn't, from Fidelity "The longer-term trend is clear. The Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast that the total pensioner spending could rise to around 8% of GDP by 2072/73 - and potentially even more if the economy continues to suffer weaker and more volatile growth."
That is very concerning.
It's going to be a long and painful century.
I gave that a Like because I'm afraid you may well be right, not because I like the idea.
NEW: Raskin, w/ 50 House Dem co-sponsors, formally introduces a bill which would create a commission to assess Trump's fitness for office under the 25th Amendment.
NEW: Raskin, w/ 50 House Dem co-sponsors, formally introduces a bill which would create a commission to assess Trump's fitness for office under the 25th Amendment.
NEW: Raskin, w/ 50 House Dem co-sponsors, formally introduces a bill which would create a commission to assess Trump's fitness for office under the 25th Amendment.
Trump banging on this afternoon about drilling the North Sea and no more windmills.
Too stupid to see that his interventions make Lab minister less likely to do any changes as he is in favour.
Let's hope he comes over to campaign for Farage in the May elections.
For the May elections, we've had 3 letters by Royal Mail from Reform, one Focus leaflet and absolutely nothing from any other party. The incumbent Conservatives either don't have any money or they can't be bothered.
Clearly no country is going to sign up to something that you can’t leave . And the EU don’t want another UK psychodrama .
The UK can’t just call another EU referendum without the EU actually agreeing to even contemplate the UK rejoining.
It would be a waste of time to call a referendum and then the EU says sorry no thanks . There has to be a very strong majority in favour in polling and the terms of re-joining laid out clearly .
Even though I’m very pro EU I think it might be better to contemplate EEA membership which comes without the CU, CFP and CAP.
There are more restrictions on FOM within that .
I think that’s more feasible and could happen more quickly .
Trump banging on this afternoon about drilling the North Sea and no more windmills.
Too stupid to see that his interventions make Lab minister less likely to do any changes as he is in favour.
Let's hope he comes over to campaign for Farage in the May elections.
For the May elections, we've had 3 letters by Royal Mail from Reform, one Focus leaflet and absolutely nothing from any other party. The incumbent Conservatives either don't have any money or they can't be bothered.
Still two weeks.
But yes it is possible Cons are saving their money as there is no point just burning it.
Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.
*spoil PB.
I promise no more Brexit threads this month unless something major happen or if there's a truly interesting Brexit poll.
You probably know I'm only messing, I'm basically very happy that someone is willing to put in the effort to originate and shepherd discussions on any current topic
Endorse this comment. I don't how you keep producing threads day after day getting engagement across the political spectrum. Truly wonderful.
I have a lot of respect for all the people who write headers. I’m so intellectually lazy these days I sometimes think about submitting one but frankly I realise I can’t be arsed to do the research to back up the header so stick to reading and posting the odd asinine comment.
I save the deep thinking and research for work otherwise my brain is a black void of sluggishness.
Point of order: the oldest baby boomers are 80 now.
I got de-threaded- at the end of the previous thread I said this: It would be interesting to see figures on the cost of just pensions to the state, and on when the drop-off of us oldies dying off kicks in, how quickly, and the impact that will have.
It doesn't, from Fidelity "The longer-term trend is clear. The Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast that the total pensioner spending could rise to around 8% of GDP by 2072/73 - and potentially even more if the economy continues to suffer weaker and more volatile growth."
That is very concerning.
It's going to be a long and painful century.
On the bright side actuarilly I’m likely to see less than half of it.
Thanks to Fishing for the previous header. And, no, it didn't support my slightly-informed conclusion about the economic impacts of Brexit. I have long thought they were mildly negative, but wondered why opponents were so fiercely opposed, but didn't bother to share their reasons.
And so I tentatively concluded that the EU was intended to prevent World War I and World War II, which explained the fierceness -- though that seemed, to me, a problem that had been solved by 1945. (In contrast, NATO is intended to prevent WW III, at which it has succeeded, so far.)
Clearly no country is going to sign up to something that you can’t leave . And the EU don’t want another UK psychodrama .
The UK can’t just call another EU referendum without the EU actually agreeing to even contemplate the UK rejoining.
It would be a waste of time to call a referendum and then the EU says sorry no thanks . There has to be a very strong majority in favour in polling and the terms of re-joining laid out clearly .
Even though I’m very pro EU I think it might be better to contemplate EEA membership which comes without the CU, CFP and CAP.
There are more restrictions on FOM within that .
I think that’s more feasible and could happen more quickly .
The EEA has more restrictions on FoM than EU membership? Interesting. Do you have a link?
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.
Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
Probably much as they are now, because an awful lot of what we've seen is the action of the Grim Reaper. Here's the Ipsos breakdown of the 2016 referendum by age:
Now roll those ages forward a decade. Leaverdom had to run very fast to stand still, and they haven't, because it hasn't been seen as a success. But a lot of what we're seeing looks like an identity thing. It's not that people have changed their minds, it's that the people have changed, and will continue to do so.
(And before anyone starts, this isn't about wishing Leave voters dead, it's just observing that death comes to us all.)
People become more conservative as they get older, though. So that works against the thesis.
Historically that was the case, but it is much less true than it was. Increasingly age cohorts keep their voting preferences through the decades. It is an identity thing.
And a wealth/age thing. What is the point of being conservative if you don't get the opportunity to build up wealth to conserve?
The Conservatives failed to make any new Conservative voters. If you only focus on those that exist now, they grow older and older until you only represent pensioners.
What is curious is what happens as the boomers die off (over the next couple of decades or so) and pass on an inheritance. Do those inheritors become Conservatives? Or is the legacy of renting and student fees too deep a wound to heal?
The median experience might be to pass on the wealth to the next generation, so the generation that benefits might well become more conservative, even as their parents look on in confusion.
NEW: Raskin, w/ 50 House Dem co-sponsors, formally introduces a bill which would create a commission to assess Trump's fitness for office under the 25th Amendment.
Much as I hate the man and think he is clearly losing it, it's a pointless piece of theatre at this point.
Imagine the Dem reaction if the Republicans had tried the same on Biden four years ago, from the minority position.
If you look at the detail, he's suggesting a bipartisan commission. And it's not 'for Trump' - though the madman's increasing instability has prompted it - rather it's intended for all presidents.
The (persuasive, IMO) argument is that there is otherwise no real mechanism for dealing with a mentally unfit president who has sole control of the power to destroy the planet.
The 25th Amendment was never intended for that purpose, which has why, without modification, it's inadequate to the current situation.
There's little or no prospect of this progressing through the current Congress, but I think it's still a respectable proposal. And I don't think it would have greatly bothered the Democrats while Biden was president. They would have had little to fear from it - and would have welcomed having it now.
Trump banging on this afternoon about drilling the North Sea and no more windmills.
Too stupid to see that his interventions make Lab minister less likely to do any changes as he is in favour.
Let's hope he comes over to campaign for Farage in the May elections.
For the May elections, we've had 3 letters by Royal Mail from Reform, one Focus leaflet and absolutely nothing from any other party. The incumbent Conservatives either don't have any money or they can't be bothered.
Still two weeks.
But yes it is possible Cons are saving their money as there is no point just burning it.
They have to take their punishment beating.
Printing is dirt cheap, though. You don't even particularly need the special in-house printers that charge suspiciously low rates any more. (One of my favourite campaigns saw a visible decline in print quality as it became more desperate to do another leaflet from a declining budget.)
The much harder bit is finding people to put the bits of paper through letterboxes. St Edward's ward, Romford, probably has about 3000 letterboxes. As they say, you do the maths...
There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.
We should live with the mistake in my view, we are where are and let's make the best of it. But we can't because living with the mistake means accepting suboptimal outcomes - we're poorer than we would otherwise be; have fewer freedoms; have to accept EU rules without a say; be in perpetual negotiation with the EU from a position of relative weakness; have reduced influence to get the things we want; etc.
Remainers don't accept the suboptimal outcomes because they voted the other way to reject these things, and Leavers also don't accept the outcomes because they didn't vote Leave to have less say and make things worse
Which is why the argument continues without resolution contrary to everyone's interest.
Yes, I guess you're right. Certainly the country needs more distance from the last referendum before contemplating another one. They are divisive, sapping events with a long tail. Tbh although a hard remainer I don't see Brexit as ruinous or a tragedy. I more see it as self-indulgent and pointless.
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.
Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
Probably much as they are now, because an awful lot of what we've seen is the action of the Grim Reaper. Here's the Ipsos breakdown of the 2016 referendum by age:
Now roll those ages forward a decade. Leaverdom had to run very fast to stand still, and they haven't, because it hasn't been seen as a success. But a lot of what we're seeing looks like an identity thing. It's not that people have changed their minds, it's that the people have changed, and will continue to do so.
(And before anyone starts, this isn't about wishing Leave voters dead, it's just observing that death comes to us all.)
People become more conservative as they get older, though. So that works against the thesis.
Historically that was the case, but it is much less true than it was. Increasingly age cohorts keep their voting preferences through the decades. It is an identity thing.
It's not obvious that being pro/anti the EU is a left/right issue. People now advocate that Labour make it a manifesto commitment to rejoin the EU. Back in 1983 it was a manifesto commitment that a Labour government would leave.
So people might become more conservative as they age (if they were able to buy a house, etc), but that wouldn't make them anti the EU.
Though of course the Conservative party in the Eighties was strongly pro-EU. The Single Market was very much Mrs Thatchers doing, and at the Conservative party conference decorated with EU flags alongside the Union Jack on at least one occasion.
That was when it was the European Community and not the EU. And she had to be crowbared into the ERM as well.
If you watch Thatcher's dispatch box performances and speeches in 1989-1990 post the Delors Speech, and as EMU came on the horizon, she was much firmer against it.
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
It is pretty obvious to anyone who goes on holiday or business to the EU that Brexit was folly and that the Europeans have a better life than us, except perhaps in the areas of Britain that voted Remain.
Leavers are still resentful of the failure of their precious, which becomes more obvious over time. No one likes being slapped in the face by their poor choice every time they visit.
It's not obvious at all, and I don't think they do - not a bit of it. Brexit hasn't affected my European experience at all.
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
It is pretty obvious to anyone who goes on holiday or business to the EU that Brexit was folly and that the Europeans have a better life than us, except perhaps in the areas of Britain that voted Remain.
Leavers are still resentful of the failure of their precious, which becomes more obvious over time. No one likes being slapped in the face by their poor choice every time they visit.
It's not obvious at all, and I don't think they do - not a bit of it. Brexit hasn't affected my European experience at all.
You're projecting.
Im still waiting for someone to explain how if the EU was so excellent for our economy how come we have slipped down all the ranking tables since we joined ?
Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.
*spoil PB.
I promise no more Brexit threads this month unless something major happen or if there's a truly interesting Brexit poll.
You probably know I'm only messing, I'm basically very happy that someone is willing to put in the effort to originate and shepherd discussions on any current topic
Endorse this comment. I don't how you keep producing threads day after day getting engagement across the political spectrum. Truly wonderful.
I have a lot of respect for all the people who write headers. I’m so intellectually lazy these days I sometimes think about submitting one but frankly I realise I can’t be arsed to do the research to back up the header so stick to reading and posting the odd asinine comment.
I save the deep thinking and research for work otherwise my brain is a black void of sluggishness.
I've made a small number of contributions and I decided my approach would be to see the article as a starting point for discussion, rather than as a rigourously researched academic article.
Other contributors have taken a more thorough approach!
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
It is pretty obvious to anyone who goes on holiday or business to the EU that Brexit was folly and that the Europeans have a better life than us, except perhaps in the areas of Britain that voted Remain.
Leavers are still resentful of the failure of their precious, which becomes more obvious over time. No one likes being slapped in the face by their poor choice every time they visit.
It's not obvious at all, and I don't think they do - not a bit of it. Brexit hasn't affected my European experience at all.
You're projecting.
Im still waiting for someone to explain how if the EU was so excellent for our economy how come we have slipped down all the ranking tables since we joined ?
And how the IMF thinks we'll be the fastest growing economy in Europe next year, not that they ever get much right.
There are extra frictional costs at the border now, correct - but we Leavers always accepted that for the sovereignty and regulatory freedom.
So why should we be convinced by an argument the other way?
"It's her who's unacceptable" -- Trump in a new interview today attacked Italian Prime Minster Giorgia Meloni for criticizing his attacks on the Pope
Unlike many of the other radical rightists, Meloni has consistently steered away from slavishly following Trump/MAGA most noticeably over her support for Ukraine. And no Italian politician in their right mind is going to side with a critic of the pope. But, also, I wonder if she is calibrating ahead of the midterms and the prospect of a weakened Trump, hobbled by a hostile congress.
Way offtopic, but might be of interest to some here (or their kids).
British Airways has applications open, *for one week only*, for a cadet pilot academy scheme, a *fully-funded* air transport pilot’s licence with a very rare job for life at the end of it.
If you were paying this yourself (to go work EasyJet or Ryanair) it would be somewhere around £250k and it’s not covered by a ‘student loan’.
Minimum age 17 on application, 18 at course start, no prior flying experience necessary (but it’s going to be very competitive, and most of the successful applicants probably will have some experience, even if it’s in gliders or air experience flights).
Closes on 23rd April.
More for the grandkids I think: I doubt BA will be bringing anyone on board who is older than about 25, and the youngest posters on here are probably in their early 80s.
Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.
*spoil PB.
I promise no more Brexit threads this month unless something major happen or if there's a truly interesting Brexit poll.
You probably know I'm only messing, I'm basically very happy that someone is willing to put in the effort to originate and shepherd discussions on any current topic
Endorse this comment. I don't how you keep producing threads day after day getting engagement across the political spectrum. Truly wonderful.
It's fun.
For the last 26 years professionally I have to write stuff for wider dissemination, I use that skillset.
To be honest, it's very easy to write threads.
A good thread is like a skirt, long enough to cover the important bits but short enough to grab your attention.
Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.
*spoil PB.
I promise no more Brexit threads this month unless something major happen or if there's a truly interesting Brexit poll.
You probably know I'm only messing, I'm basically very happy that someone is willing to put in the effort to originate and shepherd discussions on any current topic
Endorse this comment. I don't how you keep producing threads day after day getting engagement across the political spectrum. Truly wonderful.
I have a lot of respect for all the people who write headers. I’m so intellectually lazy these days I sometimes think about submitting one but frankly I realise I can’t be arsed to do the research to back up the header so stick to reading and posting the odd asinine comment.
I save the deep thinking and research for work otherwise my brain is a black void of sluggishness.
I've made a small number of contributions and I decided my approach would be to see the article as a starting point for discussion, rather than as a rigourously researched academic article.
Other contributors have taken a more thorough approach!
Yay to either. Well done to all contributors, and many thanks.
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
I would have thought, given how much prompting chatbots need to get even fairly simple questions right, that it could make things infinitely worse.
Not least because by taking any old nonsense off the internet it will almost certainly spew an enormous amount of bullshit on any given political or economic point.
Clearly no country is going to sign up to something that you can’t leave . And the EU don’t want another UK psychodrama .
The UK can’t just call another EU referendum without the EU actually agreeing to even contemplate the UK rejoining.
It would be a waste of time to call a referendum and then the EU says sorry no thanks . There has to be a very strong majority in favour in polling and the terms of re-joining laid out clearly .
Even though I’m very pro EU I think it might be better to contemplate EEA membership which comes without the CU, CFP and CAP.
There are more restrictions on FOM within that .
I think that’s more feasible and could happen more quickly .
The EEA has more restrictions on FoM than EU membership? Interesting. Do you have a link?
“More controversially, from the perspective of those who voted ‘leave’ in the referendum, the principle of free movement of persons applies. However, it is a more limited version of free movement, as it is not underpinned by the idea of citizenship of the Union.
It gives rights to those who are economically active (workers, the self-employed) and those semi-economically active (students and persons of independent means) but not to the economically inactive.
There is what might pass as an emergency brake on free movement: Article 112 states that ‘if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist are arising, a contracting party may unilaterally take appropriate measures’ (subject to further procedures laid down in Article 113).”
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
I would have thought, given how much prompting chatbots need to get even fairly simple questions right, that it could make things infinitely worse.
Not least because by taking any old nonsense off the internet it will almost certainly spew an enormous amount of bullshit on any given political or economic point.
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
It is pretty obvious to anyone who goes on holiday or business to the EU that Brexit was folly and that the Europeans have a better life than us, except perhaps in the areas of Britain that voted Remain.
Leavers are still resentful of the failure of their precious, which becomes more obvious over time. No one likes being slapped in the face by their poor choice every time they visit.
It's not obvious at all, and I don't think they do - not a bit of it. Brexit hasn't affected my European experience at all.
You're projecting.
Im still waiting for someone to explain how if the EU was so excellent for our economy how come we have slipped down all the ranking tables since we joined ?
And how the IMF thinks we'll be the fastest growing economy in Europe next year, not that they ever get much right.
There are extra frictional costs at the border now, correct - but we Leavers always accepted that for the sovereignty and regulatory freedom.
So why should we be convinced by an argument the other way?
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
Politics - admitting using LLMs would anger some people. Saying you don’t use them won’t really anger advocates.
Meanwhile everything her staff does probably goes through ChatGPT. And I mean ChatGPT.
The younger generation are addicted to LLMs already. Though all to many are not various curious about quality of outputs, or the choice of models. Seen lots of vibe coding problems because of this.
A reminder of the enormous hurdles Magyar has overcome - having now won the election by a landslide, he is only now getting to appear on Hungarian public TV at all. https://x.com/TrueSlazac/status/2044011270332920082
A reminder of the enormous hurdles Magyar has overcome - having now won the election by a landslide, he is only now getting to appear on Hungarian public TV at all. https://x.com/TrueSlazac/status/2044011270332920082
We often berate social media but without the internet he would have had no chance of winning the election .
Point of order: the oldest baby boomers are 80 now.
I got de-threaded- at the end of the previous thread I said this: It would be interesting to see figures on the cost of just pensions to the state, and on when the drop-off of us oldies dying off kicks in, how quickly, and the impact that will have.
It doesn't, from Fidelity "The longer-term trend is clear. The Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast that the total pensioner spending could rise to around 8% of GDP by 2072/73 - and potentially even more if the economy continues to suffer weaker and more volatile growth."
That is very concerning.
It's going to be a long and painful century.
On the bright side actuarilly I’m likely to see less than half of it.
NEW: Raskin, w/ 50 House Dem co-sponsors, formally introduces a bill which would create a commission to assess Trump's fitness for office under the 25th Amendment.
Clearly no country is going to sign up to something that you can’t leave . And the EU don’t want another UK psychodrama .
The UK can’t just call another EU referendum without the EU actually agreeing to even contemplate the UK rejoining.
It would be a waste of time to call a referendum and then the EU says sorry no thanks . There has to be a very strong majority in favour in polling and the terms of re-joining laid out clearly .
Even though I’m very pro EU I think it might be better to contemplate EEA membership which comes without the CU, CFP and CAP.
There are more restrictions on FOM within that .
I think that’s more feasible and could happen more quickly .
The EEA has more restrictions on FoM than EU membership? Interesting. Do you have a link?
“More controversially, from the perspective of those who voted ‘leave’ in the referendum, the principle of free movement of persons applies. However, it is a more limited version of free movement, as it is not underpinned by the idea of citizenship of the Union.
It gives rights to those who are economically active (workers, the self-employed) and those semi-economically active (students and persons of independent means) but not to the economically inactive.
There is what might pass as an emergency brake on free movement: Article 112 states that ‘if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist are arising, a contracting party may unilaterally take appropriate measures’ (subject to further procedures laid down in Article 113).”
I believe Lietchenstein has had a permanent emergency brake (or at least some degree of limitations) on free movement.
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
What a lot of stupid questions.
It's mumsnet.
In fairness 'proper' journalists ask stupid questions too as it gets clicks, there's not much incentive to be good, and even less incentive for a politician to engage with you if you are.
If a Cardassian's arse fell off, it would no doubt register at 94%.
In the event that the German invaded in WWII and won -
- 1/3rd of the population would have taken to the hills to fight on. - 1/3rd would have queued round the block to get an arm band and become “a piss ant with an anthill to piss from”. -1/3rd would not have noticed. Unless the football was interrupted.
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
I would have thought, given how much prompting chatbots need to get even fairly simple questions right, that it could make things infinitely worse.
Not least because by taking any old nonsense off the internet it will almost certainly spew an enormous amount of bullshit on any given political or economic point.
There's use to be had, but the top advocates massively oversell capabilities and the casual users are too lazy and incuriously uncritical to get good use out of them.
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
What a lot of stupid questions.
It's mumsnet.
In fairness 'proper' journalists ask stupid questions too as it gets clicks, there's not much incentive to be good, and even less incentive for a politician to engage with you if you are.
Which explains why we get crap politics.
Democracy isn't a spectator sport, you have to get involved.
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
What a lot of stupid questions.
It's mumsnet.
In fairness 'proper' journalists ask stupid questions too as it gets clicks, there's not much incentive to be good, and even less incentive for a politician to engage with you if you are.
Which explains why we get crap politics.
Democracy isn't a spectator sport, you have to get involved.
You should. But you can get to the top without doing so and then rely on distraction and gestures.
Not enough unspectacular grind, and too easy to escape critical moments without developing competing skills.
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
It is pretty obvious to anyone who goes on holiday or business to the EU that Brexit was folly and that the Europeans have a better life than us, except perhaps in the areas of Britain that voted Remain.
Leavers are still resentful of the failure of their precious, which becomes more obvious over time. No one likes being slapped in the face by their poor choice every time they visit.
It's not obvious at all, and I don't think they do - not a bit of it. Brexit hasn't affected my European experience at all.
You're projecting.
Im still waiting for someone to explain how if the EU was so excellent for our economy how come we have slipped down all the ranking tables since we joined ?
And how the IMF thinks we'll be the fastest growing economy in Europe next year, not that they ever get much right.
There are extra frictional costs at the border now, correct - but we Leavers always accepted that for the sovereignty and regulatory freedom.
So why should we be convinced by an argument the other way?
NEW: Raskin, w/ 50 House Dem co-sponsors, formally introduces a bill which would create a commission to assess Trump's fitness for office under the 25th Amendment.
Much as I hate the man and think he is clearly losing it, it's a pointless piece of theatre at this point.
Imagine the Dem reaction if the Republicans had tried the same on Biden four years ago, from the minority position.
If you look at the detail, he's suggesting a bipartisan commission. And it's not 'for Trump' - though the madman's increasing instability has prompted it - rather it's intended for all presidents.
The (persuasive, IMO) argument is that there is otherwise no real mechanism for dealing with a mentally unfit president who has sole control of the power to destroy the planet.
The 25th Amendment was never intended for that purpose, which has why, without modification, it's inadequate to the current situation.
There's little or no prospect of this progressing through the current Congress, but I think it's still a respectable proposal. And I don't think it would have greatly bothered the Democrats while Biden was president. They would have had little to fear from it - and would have welcomed having it now.
I think Labour being ahead on most seats is probably the most likely outcome of the next GE right now.
For once casino, we are in full agreement.
Labour back up to 30% ish by GE imho
The Green surge may be real, but it's very sudden even though they've been about for decades. Despite the impressive impact from Polanski they are no different than they were 2 years ago.
So i'd be concerned with their staying power and how firm switchers are.
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
It is pretty obvious to anyone who goes on holiday or business to the EU that Brexit was folly and that the Europeans have a better life than us, except perhaps in the areas of Britain that voted Remain.
Leavers are still resentful of the failure of their precious, which becomes more obvious over time. No one likes being slapped in the face by their poor choice every time they visit.
It's not obvious at all, and I don't think they do - not a bit of it. Brexit hasn't affected my European experience at all.
You're projecting.
Im still waiting for someone to explain how if the EU was so excellent for our economy how come we have slipped down all the ranking tables since we joined ?
And how the IMF thinks we'll be the fastest growing economy in Europe next year, not that they ever get much right.
There are extra frictional costs at the border now, correct - but we Leavers always accepted that for the sovereignty and regulatory freedom.
So why should we be convinced by an argument the other way?
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.
Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
Probably much as they are now, because an awful lot of what we've seen is the action of the Grim Reaper. Here's the Ipsos breakdown of the 2016 referendum by age:
Now roll those ages forward a decade. Leaverdom had to run very fast to stand still, and they haven't, because it hasn't been seen as a success. But a lot of what we're seeing looks like an identity thing. It's not that people have changed their minds, it's that the people have changed, and will continue to do so.
(And before anyone starts, this isn't about wishing Leave voters dead, it's just observing that death comes to us all.)
Clearly no country is going to sign up to something that you can’t leave . And the EU don’t want another UK psychodrama .
The UK can’t just call another EU referendum without the EU actually agreeing to even contemplate the UK rejoining.
It would be a waste of time to call a referendum and then the EU says sorry no thanks . There has to be a very strong majority in favour in polling and the terms of re-joining laid out clearly .
Even though I’m very pro EU I think it might be better to contemplate EEA membership which comes without the CU, CFP and CAP.
There are more restrictions on FOM within that .
I think that’s more feasible and could happen more quickly .
The EEA has more restrictions on FoM than EU membership? Interesting. Do you have a link?
“More controversially, from the perspective of those who voted ‘leave’ in the referendum, the principle of free movement of persons applies. However, it is a more limited version of free movement, as it is not underpinned by the idea of citizenship of the Union.
It gives rights to those who are economically active (workers, the self-employed) and those semi-economically active (students and persons of independent means) but not to the economically inactive.
There is what might pass as an emergency brake on free movement: Article 112 states that ‘if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist are arising, a contracting party may unilaterally take appropriate measures’ (subject to further procedures laid down in Article 113).”
Thanks! I didn't know that.
However, I don't think we have the appetite for inspecting household finances, withdrawing benefits from EU citizens, and doing actual deportations. I can't see it working in practical terms. Self-employment income drops below a certain level this year? Deport your family. Does Norway, for example, really do this?
I'd be much more interested in whether or not they would have access to public funds. If FoM was on a no access to public funds basis, I think we might still be in the EU.
I think Labour being ahead on most seats is probably the most likely outcome of the next GE right now.
For once casino, we are in full agreement.
Labour back up to 30% ish by GE imho
Could be better than that if you are a Labour voter. Looking at all the polls of the last several months most give an aggregate of Labour and Green at between 35-37%. Round and about where they were at the last election.
Reform look like they'll pick up the Tory anti EU vote. Say 30% between them and the rump Tories. I can't see any tactical voting between those two losers so as you were and we'll all live happily ever after.
Obviously the Libs will keep therir seats and Labour/Green will get a new leader with a personality. Possibly a redheaded female
There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.
Or one you can ameliorate
Closer friendly ties but not full rejoin
No point at present, certainly until brave Sir Nigel has been put back in his box. No hokey cokey associate membership thank you.
He’s doing some shit with Crapto now which has, amazingly, triggered the Lib Dims.
Grifters gonna grift
Twisters gonna twist.
I read that this crypto vehicle is a massive ruse so Musk will be able to legitimately buy into it in order to bankroll the first Farage Government campaign. Luvvly Jubbly!
I doubt it. From Musk's point of view, why should he bankroll Farage when Reform's treasurer is himself a billionaire? More likely imo is Nige betting Musk will dump some of the SpaceX flotation proceeds into Bitcoin and drive the price up.
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
It is pretty obvious to anyone who goes on holiday or business to the EU that Brexit was folly and that the Europeans have a better life than us, except perhaps in the areas of Britain that voted Remain.
Leavers are still resentful of the failure of their precious, which becomes more obvious over time. No one likes being slapped in the face by their poor choice every time they visit.
It's not obvious at all, and I don't think they do - not a bit of it. Brexit hasn't affected my European experience at all.
You're projecting.
Im still waiting for someone to explain how if the EU was so excellent for our economy how come we have slipped down all the ranking tables since we joined ?
And how the IMF thinks we'll be the fastest growing economy in Europe next year, not that they ever get much right.
There are extra frictional costs at the border now, correct - but we Leavers always accepted that for the sovereignty and regulatory freedom.
So why should we be convinced by an argument the other way?
Any secret organisation that stamps it's logo on things is not secret.
Do they have in house designers or glass stencillers, or do they contract out? Either way people know.
See also Hydra.
Fun fact
When building the first hydrogen bomb (Ivy Mike), the designers had the problem that while they were building a cryogenic weapon (close to absolute zero), large chunks of the inside were uranium. Which is a purplish black. Which is a terrible colour for thermal properties.
So they literally gold plated them. Electrolysis would have caused other problems. So they used gold leaf.
To apply gold leaf, they needed an expert.
So they hired an ordinary sign painter who was a gold leaf expert. Who got to see the innards of the biggest secret on the planet. He did a perfect job by all accounts. And never talked about it.
Comments
*I honestly thought such things only happened in stories
NEW: Raskin, w/ 50 House Dem co-sponsors, formally introduces a bill which would create a commission to assess Trump's fitness for office under the 25th Amendment.
https://bsky.app/profile/andrewsolender.bsky.social/post/3mjhr43ywvc2f
The yanks truly are shit.
Too stupid to see that his interventions make Lab minister less likely to do any changes as he is in favour.
Let's hope he comes over to campaign for Farage in the May elections.
"It's her who's unacceptable" -- Trump in a new interview today attacked Italian Prime Minster Giorgia Meloni for criticizing his attacks on the Pope
The UK can’t just call another EU referendum without the EU actually agreeing to even contemplate the UK rejoining.
It would be a waste of time to call a referendum and then the EU says sorry no thanks . There has to be a very strong majority in favour in polling and the terms of re-joining laid out clearly .
Even though I’m very pro EU I think it might be better to contemplate EEA membership which comes without the CU, CFP and CAP.
There are more restrictions on FOM within that .
I think that’s more feasible and could happen more quickly .
But yes it is possible Cons are saving their money as there is no point just burning it.
They have to take their punishment beating.
I save the deep thinking and research for work otherwise my brain is a black void of sluggishness.
Yor cor wash your hands in a buffalo.
Honestly, are Americans not wracked with fucking utter shame for how their country is now seen in the world?
You disagree on one thing and then he has a major tirade .
Well over half don't want closer alignment with EU laws and regulations, which is exactly what Rejoin is.
And so I tentatively concluded that the EU was intended to prevent World War I and World War II, which explained the fierceness -- though that seemed, to me, a problem that had been solved by 1945. (In contrast, NATO is intended to prevent WW III, at which it has succeeded, so far.)
The (persuasive, IMO) argument is that there is otherwise no real mechanism for dealing with a mentally unfit president who has sole control of the power to destroy the planet.
The 25th Amendment was never intended for that purpose, which has why, without modification, it's inadequate to the current situation.
There's little or no prospect of this progressing through the current Congress, but I think it's still a respectable proposal.
And I don't think it would have greatly bothered the Democrats while Biden was president. They would have had little to fear from it - and would have welcomed having it now.
The much harder bit is finding people to put the bits of paper through letterboxes. St Edward's ward, Romford, probably has about 3000 letterboxes. As they say, you do the maths...
As always.
If you watch Thatcher's dispatch box performances and speeches in 1989-1990 post the Delors Speech, and as EMU came on the horizon, she was much firmer against it.
Which is a key reason she was outed.
You're projecting.
Seems appropriate.
They'd just have to frame it on Give Up Control, and Free Movement for anyone who wants to come here.
Other contributors have taken a more thorough approach!
There are extra frictional costs at the border now, correct - but we Leavers always accepted that for the sovereignty and regulatory freedom.
So why should we be convinced by an argument the other way?
https://www.mumsnet.com/i/rachel-reeves-mumsnet-asks
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
Andrew Neil: “Doing what, exactly?”
https://x.com/afneil/status/2044101074521579656
For the last 26 years professionally I have to write stuff for wider dissemination, I use that skillset.
To be honest, it's very easy to write threads.
A good thread is like a skirt, long enough to cover the important bits but short enough to grab your attention.
Not least because by taking any old nonsense off the internet it will almost certainly spew an enormous amount of bullshit on any given political or economic point.
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/to-eea-or-not-to-eea/
“More controversially, from the perspective of those who voted ‘leave’ in the referendum, the principle of free movement of persons applies. However, it is a more limited version of free movement, as it is not underpinned by the idea of citizenship of the Union.
It gives rights to those who are economically active (workers, the self-employed) and those semi-economically active (students and persons of independent means) but not to the economically inactive.
There is what might pass as an emergency brake on free movement: Article 112 states that ‘if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist are arising, a contracting party may unilaterally take appropriate measures’ (subject to further procedures laid down in Article 113).”
What does The Syndicate think?
Meanwhile everything her staff does probably goes through ChatGPT. And I mean ChatGPT.
The younger generation are addicted to LLMs already. Though all to many are not various curious about quality of outputs, or the choice of models. Seen lots of vibe coding problems because of this.
https://x.com/TrueSlazac/status/2044011270332920082
https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2043973107333865835
In fairness 'proper' journalists ask stupid questions too as it gets clicks, there's not much incentive to be good, and even less incentive for a politician to engage with you if you are.
- 1/3rd of the population would have taken to the hills to fight on.
- 1/3rd would have queued round the block to get an arm band and become “a piss ant with an anthill to piss from”.
-1/3rd would not have noticed. Unless the football was interrupted.
https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2043973107333865835
What could possibly go wrong?
Democracy isn't a spectator sport, you have to get involved.
AI: Just let me talk to it
Not enough unspectacular grind, and too easy to escape critical moments without developing competing skills.
Labour back up to 30% ish by GE imho
CIA: The IMF
DNI: The World Bank?
CIA: No that's the international monetary fund. I mean the other IMF
DNI: What's it stand for?
CIA: The Impossible Missions Force
DNI: you're not serious...
https://x.com/HillaryClinton/status/2043703648618688582
So i'd be concerned with their staying power and how firm switchers are.
Do they have in house designers or glass stencillers, or do they contract out? Either way people know.
See also Hydra.
Which is the rational position for two mature well regulated economies to adopt. But the Brussels- fanatics refuse the concept
However, I don't think we have the appetite for inspecting household finances, withdrawing benefits from EU citizens, and doing actual deportations. I can't see it working in practical terms. Self-employment income drops below a certain level this year? Deport your family. Does Norway, for example, really do this?
I'd be much more interested in whether or not they would have access to public funds. If FoM was on a no access to public funds basis, I think we might still be in the EU.
Reform look like they'll pick up the Tory anti EU vote. Say 30% between them and the rump Tories. I can't see any tactical voting between those two losers so as you were and we'll all live happily ever after.
Obviously the Libs will keep therir seats and Labour/Green will get a new leader with a personality. Possibly a redheaded female
When building the first hydrogen bomb (Ivy Mike), the designers had the problem that while they were building a cryogenic weapon (close to absolute zero), large chunks of the inside were uranium. Which is a purplish black. Which is a terrible colour for thermal properties.
So they literally gold plated them. Electrolysis would have caused other problems. So they used gold leaf.
To apply gold leaf, they needed an expert.
So they hired an ordinary sign painter who was a gold leaf expert. Who got to see the innards of the biggest secret on the planet. He did a perfect job by all accounts. And never talked about it.