politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After this week’s “pollercoaster” now YOU predict the elect
Comments
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Love BILL97's entry
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How can you see the spreadsheet, not sure my prediction went through0
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I dont think a Lab majority of 100+ is likely but I'm not totally giving up on Enflied Southgate. I'll be seeing someone who knows the constituency intimately very soon and I'll let you know if he thinks the price is value afterwards (by afterwards I mean after I've had a biteSean_F said:
If Labour take Southgate, they'll have a majority of 100 or so.
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nigel4england said:
How can you see the spreadsheet, not sure my prediction went through
Click on the "Search" link (in between Add and Summary) - then type the first couple of letters of your name and click the Search button.
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I work in the constituency. Demographic change in the borough is favourable to Labour, but it's concentrated in the East of Enfield, and not sufficient to overturn a 17% majority in Southgate, IMHO.Neil said:
I dont think a Lab majority of 100+ is likely but I'm not totally giving up on Enflied Southgate. I'll be seeing someone who knows the constituency intimately very soon and I'll let you know if he thinks the price is value afterwards (by afterwards I mean after I've had a biteSean_F said:
If Labour take Southgate, they'll have a majority of 100 or so. ).
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Don't agree at all. Given the modest fellow he is, Shadsy probably would be surprised, but that doesn't mean he won't be very close, after all the polls have hardly moved for months and months and there's now only 70 days to go before the postal votes start being cast.Tissue_Price said:
Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.peter_from_putney said:I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.
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Anyone with Sun+ Access may want to have a look at this story - Red intheface Ed:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6335991/Selfie-queen-Karen-Danczuk-Ed-Miliband-just-didnt-know-where-to-look.html?CMP=spklr-145690842-Editorial-TWITTER-TheSunNewspaper-20150217-News0 -
It says "Seats" in big letters!Pulpstar said:BILL97 0 0 0 0 0 53
MikeK 6 2 0 604 1 19
Warren Swan 29 28 6 24 7 4
trev bevan 29 37 10 8 10 6
Joshua Dixon 31 31 14 13 5 5
Pete Garrard 32 37 6 14 4 3
richard prew 34 32 10 11 6 7
Matthew Duddy 35 29 10 10 5 3
Theo Barclay 35 33 8 12 6 6
Mr_James 36 36 12 8 4 2
barry clark 39 27 7 8 2 14
Are all vote share predictions screwing up the averages. I assume Bill97 is counting on a "Respect" surge - which is no more ludicrous than MikeK's prediction.0 -
Nigel ....... are you remotely surprised? Let's hear what the lefties on here have to say, so far nothing.nigel4england said:Labour doner Alex Ferguson now exposed as a tax avoider, bet he's well impressed with Ed.
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(a) the polls have moved. The Conservative score hasn't much, but there's been appreciable changes in the other 4 national parties over the last 6 months.peter_from_putney said:
Don't agree at all. Given the modest fellow he is, Shadsy probably would be surprised, but that doesn't mean he won't be very close, after all the polls have hardly moved for months and months and there's now only 70 days to go before the postal votes start being cast.Tissue_Price said:
Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.peter_from_putney said:I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.
(b) the polls are even more likely to move in the next 70 days, as people wake up to the election.
Anyhow, you can have 6/4 on Con 262-282 and the same on Lab 268-288 if you like. Or 5/2 on the double, since they're heavily correlated0 -
Pulpstar, you are taking my name in vain. Not nice taking the piss, and you are a typical know nothing asshole. Please desist. I have never made a prediction of 604 seats for UKIP. This is my first post since early this morning.Pulpstar said:BILL97 0 0 0 0 0 53
MikeK 6 2 0 604 1 19
Warren Swan 29 28 6 24 7 4
trev bevan 29 37 10 8 10 6
Joshua Dixon 31 31 14 13 5 5
Pete Garrard 32 37 6 14 4 3
richard prew 34 32 10 11 6 7
Matthew Duddy 35 29 10 10 5 3
Theo Barclay 35 33 8 12 6 6
Mr_James 36 36 12 8 4 2
barry clark 39 27 7 8 2 14
Are all vote share predictions screwing up the averages. I assume Bill97 is counting on a "Respect" surge - which is no more ludicrous than MikeK's prediction.0 -
I don't think anyone's sure what will happen in this election, Peter. On the one hand you have OGH, Shadsy, Antifrank and yourself + PtP predicting Labour ahead on seats. All wise and experienced gamblers.peter_from_putney said:
Don't agree at all. Given the modest fellow he is, Shadsy probably would be surprised, but that doesn't mean he won't be very close, after all the polls have hardly moved for months and months and there's now only 70 days to go before the postal votes start being cast.Tissue_Price said:
Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.peter_from_putney said:I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.
Then you have electionforecast and elections etc. predicting a virtual tie.
OTOH you have David Butler, Peter Kellner, JackW, Bogandor, Matt Lebo, Ed Fieldhouse, Rod Crosby and Sean Fear predicting the Tories somewhere in the 290s. Possibly more.
No one knows. My gambit is that Ed Miliband's terrible figures and ratings, and leads for the Tories on the economy, will eventually tell to swing voters in the marginals and first time incumbency and superior resources and campaign discipline will help them.
My evidence is the narrowing poll leads with the occasional pro-Tory poll spike into the lead.0 -
It looks like someone has already entered on your behalf - which we all took as a tongue-in-cheek entry showing your sense of humour.MikeK said:
Pulpstar, you are taking my name in vain. Not nice taking the piss, and you are a typical know nothing asshole. Please desist. I have never made a prediction of 604 seats for UKIP. This is my first post since early this morning.Pulpstar said:BILL97 0 0 0 0 0 53
MikeK 6 2 0 604 1 19
Warren Swan 29 28 6 24 7 4
trev bevan 29 37 10 8 10 6
Joshua Dixon 31 31 14 13 5 5
Pete Garrard 32 37 6 14 4 3
richard prew 34 32 10 11 6 7
Matthew Duddy 35 29 10 10 5 3
Theo Barclay 35 33 8 12 6 6
Mr_James 36 36 12 8 4 2
barry clark 39 27 7 8 2 14
Are all vote share predictions screwing up the averages. I assume Bill97 is counting on a "Respect" surge - which is no more ludicrous than MikeK's prediction.
However it seems your response to Pulpstar may in fact be more indicative of your sense of humour.
Is the prediction with 62 UKIP seats your genuine prediction?0 -
So it's another MikeK - my point was only about the fact "MikeK"'s prediction summed to 632 seats which mean it was NOT a vote share prediction, which is how it can first appear if you order the list by "CON" seats.MikeK said:
Pulpstar, you are taking my name in vain. Not nice taking the piss, and you are a typical know nothing asshole. Please desist. I have never made a prediction of 604 seats for UKIP. This is my first post since early this morning.Pulpstar said:BILL97 0 0 0 0 0 53
MikeK 6 2 0 604 1 19
Warren Swan 29 28 6 24 7 4
trev bevan 29 37 10 8 10 6
Joshua Dixon 31 31 14 13 5 5
Pete Garrard 32 37 6 14 4 3
richard prew 34 32 10 11 6 7
Matthew Duddy 35 29 10 10 5 3
Theo Barclay 35 33 8 12 6 6
Mr_James 36 36 12 8 4 2
barry clark 39 27 7 8 2 14
Are all vote share predictions screwing up the averages. I assume Bill97 is counting on a "Respect" surge - which is no more ludicrous than MikeK's prediction.0 -
@peter_from_putney
Tax avoidance is legal, though possibly repugnant in some cases.
Tax evasion is illegal and "botties" should have been booted, instead of a handshake over an agreeable luncheon.0 -
Poor Nick, having to predict a Labour Majority otherwise someone on here would doubtless snitch on him :-)0
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Scottish Conservative & Unionist PPB:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jd1_lYAmnm4&feature=youtu.be&app=desktop
Very direct - also handles Ruth Davidson's sexuality in a very adult manner - its there, but its not an issue - a less brave politician would have ducked it.0 -
Even Nick forecasts a bad night for Scottish Labour !Tissue_Price said:Poor Nick, having to predict a Labour Majority otherwise someone on here would doubtless snitch on him :-)
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Casino a fair summary.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone's sure what will happen in this election, Peter. On the one hand you have OGH, Shadsy, Antifrank and yourself + PtP predicting Labour ahead on seats. All wise and experienced gamblers.peter_from_putney said:
Don't agree at all. Given the modest fellow he is, Shadsy probably would be surprised, but that doesn't mean he won't be very close, after all the polls have hardly moved for months and months and there's now only 70 days to go before the postal votes start being cast.Tissue_Price said:
Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.peter_from_putney said:I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.
Then you have electionforecast and elections etc. predicting a virtual tie.
OTOH you have David Butler, Peter Kellner, JackW, Bogandor, Matt Lebo, Ed Fieldhouse, Rod Crosby and Sean Fear predicting the Tories somewhere in the 290s. Possibly more.
No one knows. My gambit is that Ed Miliband's terrible figures and ratings, and leads for the Tories on the economy, will eventually tell to swing voters in the marginals and first time incumbency and superior resources and campaign discipline will help them.
My evidence is the narrowing poll leads with the occasional pro-Tory poll spike into the lead.
Let's face it, nobody has a Scooby within 40 seats!0 -
In fairness, it's a good strategy in such competitions to choose a result that's unlikely to be in a popular area of the field. You can be quite wrong and still win, while if you pick in a popular area of the field you can be almost spot on and still lose.Tissue_Price said:Poor Nick, having to predict a Labour Majority otherwise someone on here would doubtless snitch on him :-)
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He's also got Plaid being wiped out and the extension of GB politics into NI :-)Pulpstar said:
Even Nick forecasts a bad night for Scottish Labour !Tissue_Price said:Poor Nick, having to predict a Labour Majority otherwise someone on here would doubtless snitch on him :-)
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Not at all but the thought of Ferguson fuming at Ed is nice!peter_from_putney said:
Nigel ....... are you remotely surprised? Let's hear what the lefties on here have to say, so far nothing.nigel4england said:Labour doner Alex Ferguson now exposed as a tax avoider, bet he's well impressed with Ed.
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Yes, that's a very fair summary.MarqueeMark said:
Casino a fair summary.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone's sure what will happen in this election, Peter. On the one hand you have OGH, Shadsy, Antifrank and yourself + PtP predicting Labour ahead on seats. All wise and experienced gamblers.peter_from_putney said:
Don't agree at all. Given the modest fellow he is, Shadsy probably would be surprised, but that doesn't mean he won't be very close, after all the polls have hardly moved for months and months and there's now only 70 days to go before the postal votes start being cast.Tissue_Price said:
Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.peter_from_putney said:I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.
Then you have electionforecast and elections etc. predicting a virtual tie.
OTOH you have David Butler, Peter Kellner, JackW, Bogandor, Matt Lebo, Ed Fieldhouse, Rod Crosby and Sean Fear predicting the Tories somewhere in the 290s. Possibly more.
No one knows. My gambit is that Ed Miliband's terrible figures and ratings, and leads for the Tories on the economy, will eventually tell to swing voters in the marginals and first time incumbency and superior resources and campaign discipline will help them.
My evidence is the narrowing poll leads with the occasional pro-Tory poll spike into the lead.
Let's face it, nobody has a Scooby within 40 seats!
I think it was Pulpstar who posted earlier a list of Hopes, i.e., what each Part hoped would help them towards a good result. Of course being an astute punter, he is aware of the difference between Hopes and Expectations.
Hopes are reasonable, Expectations are dangerous!0 -
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But apart from the Tories, I wasn't referring to "the other 4 national parties" but to Labour only. Here, Prof. Stephen Fisher's weekly input data shows that Labour's share of the vote has remained absolutely unchanged at 33% for the last FOURTEEN CONSECUTIVE WEEKS, i.e. it hasn't changed since the end of October by as much as a single percentage point! Yes, the polls may move over the next 70 days and then again they may not, on an overall basis, but either way, I feel sure that Shadsy will have taken this into account.Tissue_Price said:
(a) the polls have moved. The Conservative score hasn't much, but there's been appreciable changes in the other 4 national parties over the last 6 months.peter_from_putney said:
Don't agree at all. Given the modest fellow he is, Shadsy probably would be surprised, but that doesn't mean he won't be very close, after all the polls have hardly moved for months and months and there's now only 70 days to go before the postal votes start being cast.Tissue_Price said:
Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.peter_from_putney said:I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.
(b) the polls are even more likely to move in the next 70 days, as people wake up to the election.
Anyhow, you can have 6/4 on Con 262-282 and the same on Lab 268-288 if you like. Or 5/2 on the double, since they're heavily correlated0 -
Yes, very true.antifrank said:
In fairness, it's a good strategy in such competitions to choose a result that's unlikely to be in a popular area of the field. You can be quite wrong and still win, while if you pick in a popular area of the field you can be almost spot on and still lose.Tissue_Price said:Poor Nick, having to predict a Labour Majority otherwise someone on here would doubtless snitch on him :-)
Since your pick is in a pretty popular area I'm assuming you've gone for the "what I expect to happen" approach rather than "how can I win?"0 -
Nicola's Hydro speech Youtube - 166 thumbs up, 1 thumb down.0
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He won't care about winning the competition if his entry is anywhere near correct.Tissue_Price said:
Yes, very true.antifrank said:
In fairness, it's a good strategy in such competitions to choose a result that's unlikely to be in a popular area of the field. You can be quite wrong and still win, while if you pick in a popular area of the field you can be almost spot on and still lose.Tissue_Price said:Poor Nick, having to predict a Labour Majority otherwise someone on here would doubtless snitch on him :-)
Since your pick is in a pretty popular area I'm assuming you've gone for the "what I expect to happen" approach rather than "how can I win?"0 -
Thanks, not exactly difficult is it!MarkHopkins said:nigel4england said:How can you see the spreadsheet, not sure my prediction went through
Click on the "Search" link (in between Add and Summary) - then type the first couple of letters of your name and click the Search button.
Us Kippers are old fashioned, thought it would be logged in a Cathedral analysis book!0 -
Pressed the button to early for my first entry so needs deleting.0
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Ok, but that's 3 months rather than "months and months" [insert linguistic digression here!] Just prior to that they [relatively] fell off a cliff from consistent 36%s.peter_from_putney said:
But apart from the Tories, I wasn't referring to "the other 4 national parties" but to Labour only. Here, Prof. Stephen Fisher's weekly input data shows that Labour's share of the vote has remained absolutely unchanged at 33% for the last FOURTEEN CONSECUTIVE WEEKS, i.e. it hasn't changed since the end of October by as much as a single percentage point! Yes, the polls may move over the next 70 days and then again they may not, on an overall basis, but either way, I feel sure that Shadsy will have taken this into account.Tissue_Price said:
(a) the polls have moved. The Conservative score hasn't much, but there's been appreciable changes in the other 4 national parties over the last 6 months.peter_from_putney said:
Don't agree at all. Given the modest fellow he is, Shadsy probably would be surprised, but that doesn't mean he won't be very close, after all the polls have hardly moved for months and months and there's now only 70 days to go before the postal votes start being cast.Tissue_Price said:
Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.peter_from_putney said:I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.
(b) the polls are even more likely to move in the next 70 days, as people wake up to the election.
Anyhow, you can have 6/4 on Con 262-282 and the same on Lab 268-288 if you like. Or 5/2 on the double, since they're heavily correlated
Shadsy has doubtless taken everything into account in his prediction (and indeed his prices) - that doesn't mean that he expects them to be right to within 10 seats this far out! Indeed, his seat band prices tell you that he doesn't.0 -
I went for the "I got very bored with explaining that approach to SeanT" strategy. And then decided I'd choose the numbers that would leave the identity of the Prime Minister after the general election most neatly balanced on a hairsbreadth that I could come up with.Tissue_Price said:
Yes, very true.antifrank said:
In fairness, it's a good strategy in such competitions to choose a result that's unlikely to be in a popular area of the field. You can be quite wrong and still win, while if you pick in a popular area of the field you can be almost spot on and still lose.Tissue_Price said:Poor Nick, having to predict a Labour Majority otherwise someone on here would doubtless snitch on him :-)
Since your pick is in a pretty popular area I'm assuming you've gone for the "what I expect to happen" approach rather than "how can I win?"0 -
"Let's face it, nobody has a Scooby within 40 seats!"
Indeed, unlike GE-2015 when I bet against a pretty obvious 'Clegg bubble'. The odds available were surprisingly good.
Does anyone on this forum, ideally living in Fulwood, have a good idea whether Clegg will lose his seat?0 -
Looks like Antifrank is predicting a considerable Tory lead on Labour in the competition.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone's sure what will happen in this election, Peter. On the one hand you have OGH, Shadsy, Antifrank and yourself + PtP predicting Labour ahead on seats. All wise and experienced gamblers.peter_from_putney said:
Don't agree at all. Given the modest fellow he is, Shadsy probably would be surprised, but that doesn't mean he won't be very close, after all the polls have hardly moved for months and months and there's now only 70 days to go before the postal votes start being cast.Tissue_Price said:
Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.peter_from_putney said:I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.
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She comes across as genuine and has a good message but the make up and lighting are fucking shocking. She ends up looking like a troll with an alcohol problem.CarlottaVance said:Scottish Conservative & Unionist PPB:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jd1_lYAmnm4&feature=youtu.be&app=desktop
Very direct - also handles Ruth Davidson's sexuality in a very adult manner - its there, but its not an issue - a less brave politician would have ducked it.0 -
Yes that is my prediction of this date, between my earlier prediction of 40± seats and the hopefuls of UKIP of 100± seats.Tissue_Price said:
It looks like someone has already entered on your behalf - which we all took as a tongue-in-cheek entry showing your sense of humour.MikeK said:
Pulpstar, you are taking my name in vain. Not nice taking the piss, and you are a typical know nothing asshole. Please desist. I have never made a prediction of 604 seats for UKIP. This is my first post since early this morning.Pulpstar said:BILL97 0 0 0 0 0 53
MikeK 6 2 0 604 1 19
Warren Swan 29 28 6 24 7 4
trev bevan 29 37 10 8 10 6
Joshua Dixon 31 31 14 13 5 5
Pete Garrard 32 37 6 14 4 3
richard prew 34 32 10 11 6 7
Matthew Duddy 35 29 10 10 5 3
Theo Barclay 35 33 8 12 6 6
Mr_James 36 36 12 8 4 2
barry clark 39 27 7 8 2 14
Are all vote share predictions screwing up the averages. I assume Bill97 is counting on a "Respect" surge - which is no more ludicrous than MikeK's prediction.
However it seems your response to Pulpstar may in fact be more indicative of your sense of humour.
Is the prediction with 62 UKIP seats your genuine prediction?
Please note that I also gave the Cons, the largest seat numbers. With Labour coming within 10 seats of the Cons figure. As for my sense of humour? Well I'll let others be the judge.0 -
Which Scottish politician doesn't?Dair said:
She ends up looking like a troll with an alcohol problem.CarlottaVance said:Scottish Conservative & Unionist PPB:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jd1_lYAmnm4&feature=youtu.be&app=desktop
Very direct - also handles Ruth Davidson's sexuality in a very adult manner - its there, but its not an issue - a less brave politician would have ducked it.
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Those entrants who've put vote shares in not seat splits will have there submissions deleted0
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I have no doubt SeanT eventually understood. It's just that he was having too much fun and / or didnt want to admit how badly he's misinterpreted the entry in the first place.antifrank said:
I went for the "I got very bored with explaining that approach to SeanT" strategy.Tissue_Price said:
Yes, very true.antifrank said:
In fairness, it's a good strategy in such competitions to choose a result that's unlikely to be in a popular area of the field. You can be quite wrong and still win, while if you pick in a popular area of the field you can be almost spot on and still lose.Tissue_Price said:Poor Nick, having to predict a Labour Majority otherwise someone on here would doubtless snitch on him :-)
Since your pick is in a pretty popular area I'm assuming you've gone for the "what I expect to happen" approach rather than "how can I win?"0 -
TSE, an update on the Chelsea fans on the Metro:
As I said the European away trips have become a sort of old boys jolly up where the worst of the hooligans from the 80's meet up, including those now living in the Far East. I have dug around some Chelsea sites and it seems that the away trips also seem to be getting infested with more and more idiots, a lot of them quite young.
I thought Chelsea had managed to free themselves of these idiots years ago but now they are back, the club itself has gone to great lengths to get rid of them but they seem to manifest when there is an overseas trip.
I was at the game in 1984 at Palace when Paul Canoville was brought on as sub, becoming the first black player to play for Chelsea. Me and three mates got involved with skirmishes with our fans as they booed him and chanted Get Him Off, it was a deeply unpleasant day in our history.
I've been told that an old Chelsea 'face', a guy named Black Willie, was interviewed by Channel 4 at St Pancras on the way home and it will be shown on the news at 7pm, be interesting to see what he has to say.
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Casino, having got very close to agreeing a bet with you last night, but ultimately agreeing mutually not to proceed for all the best reasons, this reminded me that you and I DO have a bet in place I believe, but I can't bring to mind the details. Are you able to refresh my memory please?Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone's sure what will happen in this election, Peter. On the one hand you have OGH, Shadsy, Antifrank and yourself + PtP predicting Labour ahead on seats. All wise and experienced gamblers.peter_from_putney said:
Don't agree at all. Given the modest fellow he is, Shadsy probably would be surprised, but that doesn't mean he won't be very close, after all the polls have hardly moved for months and months and there's now only 70 days to go before the postal votes start being cast.Tissue_Price said:
Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.peter_from_putney said:I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.
Then you have electionforecast and elections etc. predicting a virtual tie.
OTOH you have David Butler, Peter Kellner, JackW, Bogandor, Matt Lebo, Ed Fieldhouse, Rod Crosby and Sean Fear predicting the Tories somewhere in the 290s. Possibly more.
No one knows. My gambit is that Ed Miliband's terrible figures and ratings, and leads for the Tories on the economy, will eventually tell to swing voters in the marginals and first time incumbency and superior resources and campaign discipline will help them.
My evidence is the narrowing poll leads with the occasional pro-Tory poll spike into the lead.
Btw my guess in the competition is based more on avoiding the herd in the hope of winning rather than being my expectation of the actual result.0 -
@Antifrank I think your prediction means Dave stays on as PM.0
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The ancien regime! (Johan Lamont) - lets see what Jim Irn Bru Murphy does.....Pulpstar said:
Scottish Labour 34 thumbs down, 3 up.0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11418680/Islamic-charity-under-spotlight-after-being-accused-of-promoting-extremism.html
I love the idea that having an extremist in to give anti-Semitic rants and advise on how to be a jihadi is "the result of a process failure in the organisation.”0 -
Or he's predicting/wanting constitutional crisis when EICIPM happens with Lib/Dem and SNP support.Eastwinger said:
Looks like Antifrank is predicting a considerable Tory lead on Labour in the competition.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone's sure what will happen in this election, Peter. On the one hand you have OGH, Shadsy, Antifrank and yourself + PtP predicting Labour ahead on seats. All wise and experienced gamblers.peter_from_putney said:
Don't agree at all. Given the modest fellow he is, Shadsy probably would be surprised, but that doesn't mean he won't be very close, after all the polls have hardly moved for months and months and there's now only 70 days to go before the postal votes start being cast.Tissue_Price said:
Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.peter_from_putney said:I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.
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I hope Labour manage a better PPB than that Clegg attacking one...
I imagine Conservative PPB will feature a road and Dave telling us to "Stay the course" with his "Long term economic plan".
Call me Pulpadamus.0 -
It's actually a pretty strong entry, as things stand. If UKIP pull off a breakthrough of the 50/1 chance variety, you'll probably be favourite out of 150 or so entries. You have value.MikeK said:
Yes that is my prediction of this date, between my earlier prediction of 40± seats and the hopefuls of UKIP of 100± seats.Tissue_Price said:
It looks like someone has already entered on your behalf - which we all took as a tongue-in-cheek entry showing your sense of humour.MikeK said:
Pulpstar, you are taking my name in vain. Not nice taking the piss, and you are a typical know nothing asshole. Please desist. I have never made a prediction of 604 seats for UKIP. This is my first post since early this morning.Pulpstar said:BILL97 0 0 0 0 0 53
MikeK 6 2 0 604 1 19
Warren Swan 29 28 6 24 7 4
trev bevan 29 37 10 8 10 6
Joshua Dixon 31 31 14 13 5 5
Pete Garrard 32 37 6 14 4 3
richard prew 34 32 10 11 6 7
Matthew Duddy 35 29 10 10 5 3
Theo Barclay 35 33 8 12 6 6
Mr_James 36 36 12 8 4 2
barry clark 39 27 7 8 2 14
Are all vote share predictions screwing up the averages. I assume Bill97 is counting on a "Respect" surge - which is no more ludicrous than MikeK's prediction.
However it seems your response to Pulpstar may in fact be more indicative of your sense of humour.
Is the prediction with 62 UKIP seats your genuine prediction?
Please note that I also gave the Cons, the largest seat numbers. With Labour coming within 10 seats of the Cons figure. As for my sense of humour? Well I'll let others be the judge.0 -
Sorry, it was 1982 when Paul Canoville made his debut.nigel4england said:TSE, an update on the Chelsea fans on the Metro:
As I said the European away trips have become a sort of old boys jolly up where the worst of the hooligans from the 80's meet up, including those now living in the Far East. I have dug around some Chelsea sites and it seems that the away trips also seem to be getting infested with more and more idiots, a lot of them quite young.
I thought Chelsea had managed to free themselves of these idiots years ago but now they are back, the club itself has gone to great lengths to get rid of them but they seem to manifest when there is an overseas trip.
I was at the game in 1984 at Palace when Paul Canoville was brought on as sub, becoming the first black player to play for Chelsea. Me and three mates got involved with skirmishes with our fans as they booed him and chanted Get Him Off, it was a deeply unpleasant day in our history.
I've been told that an old Chelsea 'face', a guy named Black Willie, was interviewed by Channel 4 at St Pancras on the way home and it will be shown on the news at 7pm, be interesting to see what he has to say.0 -
Don't think the Lib Dems will go for a second coalition with those numbers ?Dair said:
Or he's predicting/wanting constitutional crisis when EICIPM happens with Lib/Dem and SNP support.Eastwinger said:
Looks like Antifrank is predicting a considerable Tory lead on Labour in the competition.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone's sure what will happen in this election, Peter. On the one hand you have OGH, Shadsy, Antifrank and yourself + PtP predicting Labour ahead on seats. All wise and experienced gamblers.peter_from_putney said:
Don't agree at all. Given the modest fellow he is, Shadsy probably would be surprised, but that doesn't mean he won't be very close, after all the polls have hardly moved for months and months and there's now only 70 days to go before the postal votes start being cast.Tissue_Price said:
Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.peter_from_putney said:I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.
.0 -
Yes. We bet £20 on a Con-LD coalition at 4/1 post election. I expect to lose, I think Con minority is more likely, but don't by any means rule it out so agreed the bet for the laffs!peter_from_putney said:
Casino, having got very close to agreeing a bet with you last night, but ultimately agreeing mutually not to proceed for all the best reasons, this reminded me that you and I DO have a bet in place I believe, but I can't bring to mind the details. Are you able to refresh my memory please?Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone's sure what will happen in this election, Peter. On the one hand you have OGH, Shadsy, Antifrank and yourself + PtP predicting Labour ahead on seats. All wise and experienced gamblers.peter_from_putney said:
Don't agree at all. Given the modest fellow he is, Shadsy probably would be surprised, but that doesn't mean he won't be very close, after all the polls have hardly moved for months and months and there's now only 70 days to go before the postal votes start being cast.Tissue_Price said:
Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.peter_from_putney said:I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.
Then you have electionforecast and elections etc. predicting a virtual tie.
OTOH you have David Butler, Peter Kellner, JackW, Bogandor, Matt Lebo, Ed Fieldhouse, Rod Crosby and Sean Fear predicting the Tories somewhere in the 290s. Possibly more.
No one knows. My gambit is that Ed Miliband's terrible figures and ratings, and leads for the Tories on the economy, will eventually tell to swing voters in the marginals and first time incumbency and superior resources and campaign discipline will help them.
My evidence is the narrowing poll leads with the occasional pro-Tory poll spike into the lead.
Btw my guess in the competition is based more on avoiding the herd in the hope of winning rather than being my expectation of the actual result.0 -
We've already seen.CarlottaVance said:
The ancien regime! (Johan Lamont) - lets see what Jim Irn Bru Murphy does.....Pulpstar said:
Scottish Labour 34 thumbs down, 3 up.
And it was dire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vy-zOmdTw00 -
I see antifrank and I have both gone for 293 Con seats.
I didn't cheat, honest!
Also very obvious how much damage the losses to the SNP are doing, across the board. And I just can't see how Ed Miliband is in any way, shape or form the man to salvage Scotland for Labour in the next two and a half months.
Losing Scotland has almost certainly cost him any chance of a majority, probably for several elections out. It seems that there is a significant probability that it will cost Ed most seats.
One Nation Labour. As long as that one nation is rUK.....
0 -
Scottish Labour is "the change" o_O ?!0
-
A trifle ungallant - but the immortal in from Bouncers 'you don't sweat much for a fat lass do you? - Aye and I'm handy in a fight' does spring uncharitably to mind!MarqueeMark said:
Which Scottish politician doesn't?Dair said:
She ends up looking like a troll with an alcohol problem.CarlottaVance said:Scottish Conservative & Unionist PPB:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jd1_lYAmnm4&feature=youtu.be&app=desktop
Very direct - also handles Ruth Davidson's sexuality in a very adult manner - its there, but its not an issue - a less brave politician would have ducked it.0 -
They've disabled comments...0
-
NB you're probably also favourite to come last, but that doesn't matter in the slightest :-)Tissue_Price said:
It's actually a pretty strong entry, as things stand. If UKIP pull off a breakthrough of the 50/1 chance variety, you'll probably be favourite out of 150 or so entries. You have value.MikeK said:
Yes that is my prediction of this date, between my earlier prediction of 40± seats and the hopefuls of UKIP of 100± seats.Tissue_Price said:
It looks like someone has already entered on your behalf - which we all took as a tongue-in-cheek entry showing your sense of humour.MikeK said:
Pulpstar, you are taking my name in vain. Not nice taking the piss, and you are a typical know nothing asshole. Please desist. I have never made a prediction of 604 seats for UKIP. This is my first post since early this morning.Pulpstar said:BILL97 0 0 0 0 0 53
MikeK 6 2 0 604 1 19
Warren Swan 29 28 6 24 7 4
trev bevan 29 37 10 8 10 6
Joshua Dixon 31 31 14 13 5 5
Pete Garrard 32 37 6 14 4 3
richard prew 34 32 10 11 6 7
Matthew Duddy 35 29 10 10 5 3
Theo Barclay 35 33 8 12 6 6
Mr_James 36 36 12 8 4 2
barry clark 39 27 7 8 2 14
Are all vote share predictions screwing up the averages. I assume Bill97 is counting on a "Respect" surge - which is no more ludicrous than MikeK's prediction.
However it seems your response to Pulpstar may in fact be more indicative of your sense of humour.
Is the prediction with 62 UKIP seats your genuine prediction?
Please note that I also gave the Cons, the largest seat numbers. With Labour coming within 10 seats of the Cons figure. As for my sense of humour? Well I'll let others be the judge.0 -
I wouldn't worry about it.nigel4england said:
Sorry, it was 1982 when Paul Canoville made his debut.nigel4england said:TSE, an update on the Chelsea fans on the Metro:
As I said the European away trips have become a sort of old boys jolly up where the worst of the hooligans from the 80's meet up, including those now living in the Far East. I have dug around some Chelsea sites and it seems that the away trips also seem to be getting infested with more and more idiots, a lot of them quite young.
I thought Chelsea had managed to free themselves of these idiots years ago but now they are back, the club itself has gone to great lengths to get rid of them but they seem to manifest when there is an overseas trip.
I was at the game in 1984 at Palace when Paul Canoville was brought on as sub, becoming the first black player to play for Chelsea. Me and three mates got involved with skirmishes with our fans as they booed him and chanted Get Him Off, it was a deeply unpleasant day in our history.
I've been told that an old Chelsea 'face', a guy named Black Willie, was interviewed by Channel 4 at St Pancras on the way home and it will be shown on the news at 7pm, be interesting to see what he has to say.
Every club has it idiots.
Chelsea has made enough strides since the dark days for most people to realise these "fans" represent a very minority.0 -
http://www.standard.co.uk/business/media/roy-greenslade-ukips-a-laughing-stock-after-sense-of-humour-failure-over-channel-4-spoof-10054030.html
"For a man who laughs a lot and heads a political party that regularly provides us with moments of high farce — immigrants cause traffic jams and gays cause flooding — Farage appears to suffer from a comedy bypass.
He also fails to appreciate that every political party, and every party leader, going back to the groundbreaking That Was The Week That Was, has had to endure ridicule on TV. It goes with the territory.
I am hoping Ofcom doesn’t respond to pressure to launch an investigation to establish whether the programme breached broadcasting regulations. Channel 4 has already contended that it did not, but it would, wouldn’t it?
It would be lamentable if the regulator treated the complaints seriously. It was a mockumentary and was billed as such."0 -
**** tumbleweed ********Richard_Nabavi said:How's Tom Watson's campaign to get the Mirror shut down going?
0 -
The LDs would be crazy to go into a coalition with Labour.
They would shed another huge chunk of support - both red and blue would hate them equally.
They should go for 5 more years of with the Cons - or disband.0 -
Please delete my incomplete entry. Finger too quick on the button.MikeSmithson said:Those entrants who've put vote shares in not seat splits will have there submissions deleted
0 -
Ah, already done, ta very much.Eastwinger said:
Please delete my incomplete entry. Finger too quick on the button.MikeSmithson said:Those entrants who've put vote shares in not seat splits will have there submissions deleted
0 -
Are they allowed to just abstein on the Queen's speech ?TGOHF said:The LDs would be crazy to go into a coalition with Labour.
They would shed another huge chunk of support - both red and blue would hate them equally.
They should go for 5 more years of with the Cons - or disband.
0 -
Two of us can play at being pedantic - over the 17 week period from 10.10.14 - 13.02.15, i.e. OVER MORE THAN FOUR MONTHS, i.e. "for months and months", Stephen Fisher's input data for Labour's share of the vote didn't vary by more than one single percentage point, i.e. outside the range of 33% - 34%.Tissue_Price said:
Ok, but that's 3 months rather than "months and months" [insert linguistic digression here!] Just prior to that they [relatively] fell off a cliff from consistent 36%s.peter_from_putney said:
But apart from the Tories, I wasn't referring to "the other 4 national parties" but to Labour only. Here, Prof. Stephen Fisher's weekly input data shows that Labour's share of the vote has remained absolutely unchanged at 33% for the last FOURTEEN CONSECUTIVE WEEKS, i.e. it hasn't changed since the end of October by as much as a single percentage point! Yes, the polls may move over the next 70 days and then again they may not, on an overall basis, but either way, I feel sure that Shadsy will have taken this into account.Tissue_Price said:
(a) the polls have moved. The Conservative score hasn't much, but there's been appreciable changes in the other 4 national parties over the last 6 months.peter_from_putney said:
Don't agree at all. Given the modest fellow he is, Shadsy probably would be surprised, but that doesn't mean he won't be very close, after all the polls have hardly moved for months and months and there's now only 70 days to go before the postal votes start being cast.Tissue_Price said:
Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.peter_from_putney said:I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.
(b) the polls are even more likely to move in the next 70 days, as people wake up to the election.
Anyhow, you can have 6/4 on Con 262-282 and the same on Lab 268-288 if you like. Or 5/2 on the double, since they're heavily correlated
Shadsy has doubtless taken everything into account in his prediction (and indeed his prices) - that doesn't mean that he expects them to be right to within 10 seats this far out! Indeed, his seat band prices tell you that he doesn't.0 -
The only way that would happen is if OGH hope prevails and they retain a solid core of Fortress seats and still have solid majorities in this seats.Pulpstar said:
Don't think the Lib Dems will go for a second coalition with those numbers ?Dair said:
Or he's predicting/wanting constitutional crisis when EICIPM happens with Lib/Dem and SNP support.Eastwinger said:
Looks like Antifrank is predicting a considerable Tory lead on Labour in the competition.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone's sure what will happen in this election, Peter. On the one hand you have OGH, Shadsy, Antifrank and yourself + PtP predicting Labour ahead on seats. All wise and experienced gamblers.peter_from_putney said:
Don't agree at all. Given the modest fellow he is, Shadsy probably would be surprised, but that doesn't mean he won't be very close, after all the polls have hardly moved for months and months and there's now only 70 days to go before the postal votes start being cast.Tissue_Price said:
Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.peter_from_putney said:I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.
.
I think this is very unlikely, if they do scrape 30 seats, a lot of them will be quite tight in terms of majorities. Even then they won't have Tory Alexander and a fair few other Cleggites (or even Clegg himself).
They also need to ask themselves what they want as a party. They were in a position of a solid vote share two elections running into the 20s for the first time since the mid eighties and they had 55+ seats. They've already destroyed that, where do they want to be in 20 years? 30 rock solid seats on 5% of the national vote?
To an extent I REALLY wish they had carried the AV vote - the irony of AV destroying them after their deliberate, selfish, unconscionable choice to turn their back on PR and try to gerrymander FPTP to favour Third Parties when they then lost their place as the third party would have been delicious.0 -
I didn't think it would be possible to be blander or duller than Lamont.....hey ho, some way to go - get out your Irn Bru crate man!Dair said:
We've already seen.CarlottaVance said:
The ancien regime! (Johan Lamont) - lets see what Jim Irn Bru Murphy does.....Pulpstar said:
Scottish Labour 34 thumbs down, 3 up.
And it was dire.0 -
Albert Abstein?Pulpstar said:
Are they allowed to just abstein on the Queen's speech ?TGOHF said:The LDs would be crazy to go into a coalition with Labour.
They would shed another huge chunk of support - both red and blue would hate them equally.
They should go for 5 more years of with the Cons - or disband.0 -
pmsl !Sunil_Prasannan said:
Albert Abstein?Pulpstar said:
Are they allowed to just abstein on the Queen's speech ?TGOHF said:The LDs would be crazy to go into a coalition with Labour.
They would shed another huge chunk of support - both red and blue would hate them equally.
They should go for 5 more years of with the Cons - or disband.0 -
Of course, I remember now, thanks .... I think in Ladbrokes' market this is actually the favourite outcome. I'm relying on the "nice" Tim Farron to put paid to your chances!Casino_Royale said:
Yes. We bet £20 on a Con-LD coalition at 4/1 post election. I expect to lose, I think Con minority is more likely, but don't by any means rule it out so agreed the bet for the laffs!peter_from_putney said:
Casino, having got very close to agreeing a bet with you last night, but ultimately agreeing mutually not to proceed for all the best reasons, this reminded me that you and I DO have a bet in place I believe, but I can't bring to mind the details. Are you able to refresh my memory please?Casino_Royale said:
I don't think anyone's sure what will happen in this election, Peter. On the one hand you have OGH, Shadsy, Antifrank and yourself + PtP predicting Labour ahead on seats. All wise and experienced gamblers.peter_from_putney said:
Don't agree at all. Given the modest fellow he is, Shadsy probably would be surprised, but that doesn't mean he won't be very close, after all the polls have hardly moved for months and months and there's now only 70 days to go before the postal votes start being cast.Tissue_Price said:
Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.peter_from_putney said:I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.
Then you have electionforecast and elections etc. predicting a virtual tie.
OTOH you have David Butler, Peter Kellner, JackW, Bogandor, Matt Lebo, Ed Fieldhouse, Rod Crosby and Sean Fear predicting the Tories somewhere in the 290s. Possibly more.
No one knows. My gambit is that Ed Miliband's terrible figures and ratings, and leads for the Tories on the economy, will eventually tell to swing voters in the marginals and first time incumbency and superior resources and campaign discipline will help them.
My evidence is the narrowing poll leads with the occasional pro-Tory poll spike into the lead.
Btw my guess in the competition is based more on avoiding the herd in the hope of winning rather than being my expectation of the actual result.0 -
Are the SNP allowed to Jock Stein?Pulpstar said:
Are they allowed to just abstein on the Queen's speech ?TGOHF said:The LDs would be crazy to go into a coalition with Labour.
They would shed another huge chunk of support - both red and blue would hate them equally.
They should go for 5 more years of with the Cons - or disband.
0 -
Didn't realise it was a comedyJonnyJimmy said:http://www.standard.co.uk/business/media/roy-greenslade-ukips-a-laughing-stock-after-sense-of-humour-failure-over-channel-4-spoof-10054030.html
"For a man who laughs a lot and heads a political party that regularly provides us with moments of high farce — immigrants cause traffic jams and gays cause flooding — Farage appears to suffer from a comedy bypass.
He also fails to appreciate that every political party, and every party leader, going back to the groundbreaking That Was The Week That Was, has had to endure ridicule on TV. It goes with the territory.
I am hoping Ofcom doesn’t respond to pressure to launch an investigation to establish whether the programme breached broadcasting regulations. Channel 4 has already contended that it did not, but it would, wouldn’t it?
It would be lamentable if the regulator treated the complaints seriously. It was a mockumentary and was billed as such."0 -
Not a good euphanism for a family websiteMarqueeMark said:
Are the SNP allowed to Jock Stein?Pulpstar said:
Are they allowed to just abstein on the Queen's speech ?TGOHF said:The LDs would be crazy to go into a coalition with Labour.
They would shed another huge chunk of support - both red and blue would hate them equally.
They should go for 5 more years of with the Cons - or disband.
0 -
Six Nations: Scotland appeal against the two week ban for Russell (affecting their match against Italy):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/314943550 -
I see all the criticism from mr senior of the Tories,the lad as them with most seats ;-)
0 -
Where was it billed as a 'mockumentary'?JonnyJimmy said:http://www.standard.co.uk/business/media/roy-greenslade-ukips-a-laughing-stock-after-sense-of-humour-failure-over-channel-4-spoof-10054030.html
"For a man who laughs a lot and heads a political party that regularly provides us with moments of high farce — immigrants cause traffic jams and gays cause flooding — Farage appears to suffer from a comedy bypass.
He also fails to appreciate that every political party, and every party leader, going back to the groundbreaking That Was The Week That Was, has had to endure ridicule on TV. It goes with the territory.
I am hoping Ofcom doesn’t respond to pressure to launch an investigation to establish whether the programme breached broadcasting regulations. Channel 4 has already contended that it did not, but it would, wouldn’t it?
It would be lamentable if the regulator treated the complaints seriously. It was a mockumentary and was billed as such."
The pieces I've read do not describe it as a comedy.
0 -
They were probably worried about the Trade Descriptions Act.anotherDave said:
The pieces I've read do not describe it as a comedy.0 -
He also seems to have given up on our Brighton Pavilion bet! Early settlement terms available here, Mark. I'll give you 7/1!Tykejohnno said:I see all the criticism from mr senior of the Tories,the lad as them with most seats ;-)
0 -
OGH seems to be basing his hopes on the Ashcroft constituency polls apparently reporting that while the "who would you vote for in a General election" question show most Libdems being vanquished, when asked a second question along the lines of who you would vote for locally, Libdems miraculously regain the lead.Dair said:
The only way that would happen is if OGH hope prevails and they retain a solid core of Fortress seats and still have solid majorities in this seats.
I think this is very unlikely, if they do scrape 30 seats, a lot of them will be quite tight in terms of majorities. Even then they won't have Tory Alexander and a fair few other Cleggites (or even Clegg himself).
Someone, I cant' remember who, a few days ago pointed out that people, in response to the second question, might have stated who they would vote for in local ie council elections.
If so Libdems need to buy a minibus in May.
0 -
I have form on this sort of bet - always try to be different.antifrank said:
In fairness, it's a good strategy in such competitions to choose a result that's unlikely to be in a popular area of the field. You can be quite wrong and still win, while if you pick in a popular area of the field you can be almost spot on and still lose.Tissue_Price said:Poor Nick, having to predict a Labour Majority otherwise someone on here would doubtless snitch on him :-)
But anyway, of course we're gonna win. :-)0 -
BBC 6 O'clock news leading on fall in unemployment. But they find 2 people in the street who are not better off.0
-
The question is quite clear, only an idiot could think it referred to local council elections.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
OGH seems to be basing his hopes on the Ashcroft constituency polls apparently reporting that while the "who would you vote for in a General election" question show most Libdems being vanquished, when asked a second question along the lines of who you would vote for locally, Libdems miraculously regain the lead.Dair said:
The only way that would happen is if OGH hope prevails and they retain a solid core of Fortress seats and still have solid majorities in this seats.
I think this is very unlikely, if they do scrape 30 seats, a lot of them will be quite tight in terms of majorities. Even then they won't have Tory Alexander and a fair few other Cleggites (or even Clegg himself).
Someone, I cant' remember who, a few days ago pointed out that people, in response to the second question, might have stated who they would vote for in local ie council elections.
If so Libdems need to buy a minibus in May.
And thinking specifically about your own parliamentary constituency at the next general election and the candidates who are likely to stand for election to Westminster there, which
party's candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency?0 -
The comments go against your man 3/1, JonnyJimjam, who is another journalist with an anti-UKIP agenda. But then so are you.isam said:
Didn't realise it was a comedyJonnyJimmy said:http://www.standard.co.uk/business/media/roy-greenslade-ukips-a-laughing-stock-after-sense-of-humour-failure-over-channel-4-spoof-10054030.html
"For a man who laughs a lot and heads a political party that regularly provides us with moments of high farce — immigrants cause traffic jams and gays cause flooding — Farage appears to suffer from a comedy bypass.
He also fails to appreciate that every political party, and every party leader, going back to the groundbreaking That Was The Week That Was, has had to endure ridicule on TV. It goes with the territory.
I am hoping Ofcom doesn’t respond to pressure to launch an investigation to establish whether the programme breached broadcasting regulations. Channel 4 has already contended that it did not, but it would, wouldn’t it?
It would be lamentable if the regulator treated the complaints seriously. It was a mockumentary and was billed as such." 0 -
I had to do it twice.
I was on the phone to my mother and forgot about the NI seats. Doh.
How long have I been following politics!??!0 -
No doubt UKIP is a laughing stock among the chattering classes who so despise them, but to many others this has just demonstrated how out of touch the chattering classes are.MikeK said:
The comments go against your man 3/1, JonnyJimjam, who is another journalist with an anti-UKIP agenda. But then so are you.isam said:
Didn't realise it was a comedyJonnyJimmy said:http://www.standard.co.uk/business/media/roy-greenslade-ukips-a-laughing-stock-after-sense-of-humour-failure-over-channel-4-spoof-10054030.html
"For a man who laughs a lot and heads a political party that regularly provides us with moments of high farce — immigrants cause traffic jams and gays cause flooding — Farage appears to suffer from a comedy bypass.
He also fails to appreciate that every political party, and every party leader, going back to the groundbreaking That Was The Week That Was, has had to endure ridicule on TV. It goes with the territory.
I am hoping Ofcom doesn’t respond to pressure to launch an investigation to establish whether the programme breached broadcasting regulations. Channel 4 has already contended that it did not, but it would, wouldn’t it?
It would be lamentable if the regulator treated the complaints seriously. It was a mockumentary and was billed as such."0 -
Those pikers of the BBC are treating you lot leniently. If they were talking of UKIP they would have found 200 or more baying their troubles at the screen.frpenkridge said:BBC 6 O'clock news leading on fall in unemployment. But they find 2 people in the street who are not better off.
0 -
How is the 'smallest overall error' defined here? Mathematically speaking, there are an uncountably infinite number of sensible definitions and in some circumstances the choice of definition will affect the winner.
The two most obvious are the sum of the absolute value of the differences in the individual seat totals, and the square root of the sum of the squares of the differences (the Euclidean distance between the results). The first is slightly easier to calculate, but the second is better behaved, mathematically.0 -
Love your 62 seats for UKIP prediction Mike. Optimism will get you everywhereMikeK said:
Those pikers of the BBC are treating you lot leniently. If they were talking of UKIP they would have found 200 or more baying their troubles at the screen.frpenkridge said:BBC 6 O'clock news leading on fall in unemployment. But they find 2 people in the street who are not better off.
0 -
As I scientist, I approve of the use of the root of the sum of the squares.Robert_Of_Sheffield said:How is the 'smallest overall error' defined here? Mathematically speaking, there are an uncountably infinite number of sensible definitions and in some circumstances the choice of definition will affect the winner.
The two most obvious are the sum of the absolute value of the differences in the individual seat totals, and the square root of the sum of the squares of the differences (the Euclidean distance between the results). The first is slightly easier to calculate, but the second is better behaved, mathematically.
0 -
Plenty of idiots get interviewed in opinion pollsTheScreamingEagles said:
The question is quite clear, only an idiot could think it referred to local council elections.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
OGH seems to be basing his hopes on the Ashcroft constituency polls apparently reporting that while the "who would you vote for in a General election" question show most Libdems being vanquished, when asked a second question along the lines of who you would vote for locally, Libdems miraculously regain the lead.Dair said:
The only way that would happen is if OGH hope prevails and they retain a solid core of Fortress seats and still have solid majorities in this seats.
I think this is very unlikely, if they do scrape 30 seats, a lot of them will be quite tight in terms of majorities. Even then they won't have Tory Alexander and a fair few other Cleggites (or even Clegg himself).
Someone, I cant' remember who, a few days ago pointed out that people, in response to the second question, might have stated who they would vote for in local ie council elections.
If so Libdems need to buy a minibus in May.
I've made clear here in the past that if Nadine wants to retain my vote in 2015, she will have to defect to UKIP.TheScreamingEagles said:
And thinking specifically about your own parliamentary constituency at the next general election and the candidates who are likely to stand for election to Westminster there, which
party's candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency?
Suspect she will win, but with UKIP second ahead of Libdems and Labour and a significantly reduced Conservative majority.0 -
As a punter you should wait and see which approach is more favourable to you before expressing a view.RobD said:
As I scientist, I approve of the use of the root of the sum of the squares.Robert_Of_Sheffield said:How is the 'smallest overall error' defined here? Mathematically speaking, there are an uncountably infinite number of sensible definitions and in some circumstances the choice of definition will affect the winner.
The two most obvious are the sum of the absolute value of the differences in the individual seat totals, and the square root of the sum of the squares of the differences (the Euclidean distance between the results). The first is slightly easier to calculate, but the second is better behaved, mathematically.
0 -
What an absurd comment.TGOHF said:The LDs would be crazy to go into a coalition with Labour.
They would shed another huge chunk of support - both red and blue would hate them equally.
They should go for 5 more years of with the Cons - or disband.
My view has long been there will be no Coalition 2 unless the LDs get close to their current seat number thereby proving there was a mandate for said Coalition.
If there isn't, the Party goes into Opposition - we're no more likely to disband than the Conservatives after three successive defeats in 2005.
0 -
Hah, very true!Neil said:
As a punter you should wait and see which approach is more favourable to you before expressing a view.RobD said:
As I scientist, I approve of the use of the root of the sum of the squares.Robert_Of_Sheffield said:How is the 'smallest overall error' defined here? Mathematically speaking, there are an uncountably infinite number of sensible definitions and in some circumstances the choice of definition will affect the winner.
The two most obvious are the sum of the absolute value of the differences in the individual seat totals, and the square root of the sum of the squares of the differences (the Euclidean distance between the results). The first is slightly easier to calculate, but the second is better behaved, mathematically.
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As others have pointed out there was no attempt at comedy it was a brazen smear job predicated on intentionally distorted interpretations.JonnyJimmy said:http://www.standard.co.uk/business/media/roy-greenslade-ukips-a-laughing-stock-after-sense-of-humour-failure-over-channel-4-spoof-10054030.html
"For a man who laughs a lot and heads a political party that regularly provides us with moments of high farce — immigrants cause traffic jams and gays cause flooding — Farage appears to suffer from a comedy bypass.
He also fails to appreciate that every political party, and every party leader, going back to the groundbreaking That Was The Week That Was, has had to endure ridicule on TV. It goes with the territory.
I am hoping Ofcom doesn’t respond to pressure to launch an investigation to establish whether the programme breached broadcasting regulations. Channel 4 has already contended that it did not, but it would, wouldn’t it?
It would be lamentable if the regulator treated the complaints seriously. It was a mockumentary and was billed as such."
The enormous irony of it is that the director Chris Atkins is up in court on Friday for a massive (2.5 million) Tax Fraud (when Miliband is banging on about the immorality of tax evasion). Hopefully Atkins next mockumentary will be entitled.
"Pentonville: My first 100 days inside"
Now that would be funny.......
http://www.hamhigh.co.uk/news/crime-court/hampstead_journalist_who_exposed_wrongdoing_to_stand_trial_over_alleged_2_5million_tax_scam_1_3342073
PS And using an article by one of the usual suspects is hardly surprising0 -
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 2m2 minutes ago
My next constituency polls will be released tomorrow at 11am. Sign up at Lord Ashcroft Polls to get results by email. http://Lordashcroftpolls.com0 -
Antifrank. I have messaged you.0
