I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
If we're all honest and set the partisan desire aside, its highly unlikely that anyone is winning a majority. So its a question of who is the largest party and the internal maths in the commons. There are more barriers to the Tories forming a workable coalition than Labour but all things are possible.
Betting question - anyone offering odds that Cameron Clegg and Milliband will all no longer be party leaders by the end of the year? Because I think Clegg is losing in Hallam, whichever of Cameron or Milliband isn't PM in June won't stay on as leader, and there is a decent chance both of a 2nd election and a change of maths swapping things around after it.
Its not impossible that by December Boris is PM, Farron leads whats left of the LibDems, and Umunna leads Labour...
I'm really struggling with this Pensioner Bonds thing, I must be stupid.
How is the government taking out billions of pounds of loans at massively above market rate prudent financial planning and not shaking the magic money tree for free moeny but Labour, say, proposing increased spending funded by billions of pounds of loans at market rate financially irresponsible and reliant on the magic money tree?
Nothing. The pensioner bonds are a stupid vote buying scheme.
However, I think it's be down to the Lib Dems. If they went for a second Con-Lib Coalition, we'd get that. If they preferred to lick their wounds then it'd be, er, interesting. It'd be an incredibly messy result.
I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
Well looking at the entries so far there is only one line showing a party with an overall majority, UKIP with 604.
Well down the second page and no one has Lab or Con 325 or over.
Edit, just seen Timmo with a 328. Ignore me no glasses on, can't see!
On the Search page: if you click on any of the column headings, e.g. Cons, Lab, then it will order by that column, so it's easy to see the range of guesses for that party.
I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
Hail Mary, I think your 40 is a much more realistic figure as shirley the polls must tighten as the GE comes closer - and the swing is so important in Scotland because of the massive majorities that have to be over turned.
Labour lead in ELBOW so far this week up to 1.4% inc. last night's YG and TNS!
Super-ELBOW for February so far, also 1.4% lead (cf. 1.1% for all of January).
According to Lewis Baston, the reason for TNS's low Conservative score (and high UKIP score) is that they weight to the EU election results. Everyone else (apart from MORI) weights to the last general election.
If true that sounds totally crazy!
I suppose the logic is that this was the last national election, but I disagree with the idea.
If we're all honest and set the partisan desire aside, its highly unlikely that anyone is winning a majority. So its a question of who is the largest party and the internal maths in the commons. There are more barriers to the Tories forming a workable coalition than Labour but all things are possible.
Betting question - anyone offering odds that Cameron Clegg and Milliband will all no longer be party leaders by the end of the year? Because I think Clegg is losing in Hallam, whichever of Cameron or Milliband isn't PM in June won't stay on as leader, and there is a decent chance both of a 2nd election and a change of maths swapping things around after it.
Its not impossible that by December Boris is PM, Farron leads whats left of the LibDems, and Umunna leads Labour...
Great competition OGH, - many thanks to all involved.
Given the present state of polling however, I fear even a remotely accurate prediction may be beyond the wisdom of the PB crowd : ) – good luck to all taking part.
Well looking at the entries so far there is only one line showing a party with an overall majority, UKIP with 604.
Well down the second page and no one has Lab or Con 325 or over.
Edit, just seen Timmo with a 328. Ignore me no glasses on, can't see!
On the Search page: if you click on any of the column headings, e.g. Cons, Lab, then it will order by that column, so it's easy to see the range of guesses for that party.
I do hope the Archbishop's e mail account is on fire.. From what I have heard, churchgoes are prerty angry and feel that the church should stick to pastoral matters and keep out of politics.
Interesting to hear them try to defend it as a non partisan document when of course anyone can see it isn't. I thought bishops were supposed to be truthful.
On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%
On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%
If you went for the wisdom of a particular PBer rather than the crowd, you'd have been within 0.38% on the Yes value and 0.13% on the turnout. Modesty forbids me to specify which particular PBer, of course!
Cameron could never get the 43% who backed JM4PM including an extraordinary personal vote in his constituency. Let's compare their personal votes 1992 vs 2010.
Major - 48662 (66%/52%) Cameron - 33973 (59%/43%)
That's total votes followed by the % of the vote they got and the percentage of registered voters who supported them. Amidst all the fuss last week about the Tory fundraiser I thought a vital point was missed. Previous Tory PMs may have cultivated the rich or admired 'buccaneering businessmen' but they were always quite careful about their own image. The one nation tradition that sustained them up to Heath, followed by Thatcher who was always the disciplinarian school marm even if her policies made loads a'money possible and Major was the ordinary bloke from Brixton. That care seems to have been completely lost under Cameron and Osborne. Perhaps they thought if it was okay for New Labour to have an unapologetic appreciation of wealth, why not them? That carelessness could be their undoing.
Huntingdon in 1992 was a massively oversized constituency with an electorate of 93,000. nearly 20,000 votes were shunted off into the new NW Cambs seat for 1997. Witney in 2010 had 78k electors
We exclude Labour partnering with the Conservatives, UKIP, DUP or Sinn Fein; we exclude Conservatives partnering with Labour, SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru, SDLP or Sinn Fein.
Mr. Root, not a churchist, but if I were, and suspected the document were not neutral, then I'd probably be almost as pissed off over the bullshitting as the initial meddlesome intervention. Priests interfering in elections is not a welcome development.
Seems a bit odd to not have a summary for a 52 page document, but there we are.
Mr. Price, interesting suggestion. Would you advocate it being on party lines, or a more liberal/authoritarian (social) and socialist/capitalist sort of lines?
I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
Hail Mary, I think your 40 is a much more realistic figure as shirley the polls must tighten as the GE comes closer - and the swing is so important in Scotland because of the massive majorities that have to be over turned.
Of course, if the polls don't tighten then 52 might be an underestimate!
On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%
On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%
If you went for the wisdom of a particular PBer rather than the crowd, you'd have been within 0.38% on the Yes value and 0.13% on the turnout. Modesty forbids me to specify which particular PBer, of course!
We exclude Labour partnering with the Conservatives, UKIP, DUP or Sinn Fein; we exclude Conservatives partnering with Labour, SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru, SDLP or Sinn Fein.
You bolded the wrong NI party, Ed opened up talks with Sinn Fein last time it came up.
I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
Hail Mary, I think your 40 is a much more realistic figure as shirley the polls must tighten as the GE comes closer - and the swing is so important in Scotland because of the massive majorities that have to be over turned.
Of course, if the polls don't tighten then 52 might be an underestimate!
On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%
On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%
If you went for the wisdom of a particular PBer rather than the crowd, you'd have been within 0.38% on the Yes value and 0.13% on the turnout. Modesty forbids me to specify which particular PBer, of course!
Peter from Putney?
It was Conor Ryan I felt sorry for.
He was 0.02% out on the Yes vote, and 0.06% out on turnout
We exclude Labour partnering with the Conservatives, UKIP, DUP or Sinn Fein; we exclude Conservatives partnering with Labour, SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru, SDLP or Sinn Fein.
You bolded the wrong NI party, Ed opened up talks with Sinn Fein last time it came up.
I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
Hail Mary, I think your 40 is a much more realistic figure as shirley the polls must tighten as the GE comes closer - and the swing is so important in Scotland because of the massive majorities that have to be over turned.
Of course, if the polls don't tighten then 52 might be an underestimate!
@rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie
@rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie
Wow, Milliband has just turned a winning hand into a losing hand. He's discaraded the pair from a full house to try and draw 4 of a kind. What a maroon.
@rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie
Interesting move. If you had kept up you would know that Miliband hasn't avoided tax, as Rod Crosby and others have explained in great details on here numerous times, most of which has fallen on deaf ears.
@rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie
Wow, Milliband has just turned a winning hand into a losing hand. He's discaraded the pair from a full house to try and draw 4 of a kind. What a maroon.
Not so sure about that.
And have you tried Holdem? Much better game than Draw!
@rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie
Interesting move. If you had kept up you would know that Miliband hasn't avoided tax, as Rod Crosby and others have explained in great details on here numerous times, most of which has fallen on deaf ears.
One to watch.
Sure, but how many voters know that?
I reckon about the same number as who know that Stanley Fink is not dodgy.
(In any event, Miliband has reduced the size of his mother's estate and thereby reduced a potential future liability. He's not avoided tax. Yet.)
I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
Hail Mary, I think your 40 is a much more realistic figure as shirley the polls must tighten as the GE comes closer - and the swing is so important in Scotland because of the massive majorities that have to be over turned.
Of course, if the polls don't tighten then 52 might be an underestimate!
Where's the best place online to bet on Rochester and Strood. Anyone know?
Which side of the bet do you want ?
@Isam Will give you best price on the Conservatives, head through vanilla messaging to get to him. He seems to be banned on here (right now...) but I can confirm he pays up.
Wasn't there also a general 2014 predictions competition thingummyjig? Or am I raving drunkard whose brandy-fuelled misrememberings bear no relation to reality?
@rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie
What a moron. He should have just kept his head down and now he has brought his tax affairs into the spotlight. Whether or not he made tax savings from the deed of variation is irrelevant, what is relevant is that he, his brother and his mother had the intention to avoid tax.
@rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie
I was expecting some low level Labour no-name to wade in and demand an apology and keep this story alive. I didn't think Miliband himself would be that dumb though. He just strung an albatross called "Hypocrite" around his own neck.
He'll be hung, drawn and quartered by the court of public opinion.... I can't see Rod Crosby explaining the subtleties of his use of a Deed of Variation to The Man In The Checkout Queue.....
.....Duncan Smith was educated at what is now St. Peter's RC Secondary School, Solihull, until the age of 14,[6] then at HMS Conway, a Merchant Navy training school on the Isle of Anglesey (where he allegedly played rugby union in the position of fly-half alongside Clive Woodward at centre) until he was 18.
His claim that he studied at the University of Perugia was later found to be false after an investigation by the BBC.[7] His office subsequently admitted that he attended the Italian Università per Stranieri (founded 1921) in Perugia for a year but he did not obtain any qualifications or finish his exams.[7] In 1975 he attended the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and was subsequently commissioned into the Scots Guards.[8] Duncan Smith's biography, on the Conservative Party website, claimed he was "educated at Dunchurch College of Management" but following questioning by the BBC his office confirmed that he did not get any qualifications there either, stating that he completed six separate courses lasting a few days each, adding up to about a month in total.[7] Dunchurch was the former staff college for GEC Marconi, for whom Duncan Smith worked in the 1980s.[7]
What is it about Tores and Truth? Question for Michael Green
Wasn't there also a general 2014 predictions competition thingummyjig? Or am I raving drunkard whose brandy-fuelled misrememberings bear no relation to reality?
Wasn't there also a general 2014 predictions competition thingummyjig?
There were four that I know of last year.
Euros IndyRef Rochester & Strood Survation SNP lead after the new SLab leader.
Or am I raving drunkard whose brandy-fuelled misrememberings bear no relation to reality?
"To test the mood within the party this newspaper talked to numerous Scottish Labour MPs about their hopes of mounting a comeback after the alarming slump in support since the Scottish independence referendum last September.
Speaking under the condition of anonymity, the MPs painted a dire picture of the party’s hopes north of the border ranging from disbelief at the scale of the collapse to utter despondency.
One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.
Another said the abandonment of voters from Labour since the independence vote was comparable to the “backlash” the Conservatives suffered over the poll tax, adding: “There has been an emotional breakage between Scottish voters and Labour. God knows if it can be reformed.”
A third, when asked how things were looking in Scotland, simply formed his hand into a gun, raised it to his mouth and pulled the trigger."
.....Duncan Smith was educated at what is now St. Peter's RC Secondary School, Solihull, until the age of 14,[6] then at HMS Conway, a Merchant Navy training school on the Isle of Anglesey (where he allegedly played rugby union in the position of fly-half alongside Clive Woodward at centre) until he was 18.
His claim that he studied at the University of Perugia was later found to be false after an investigation by the BBC.[7] His office subsequently admitted that he attended the Italian Università per Stranieri (founded 1921) in Perugia for a year but he did not obtain any qualifications or finish his exams.[7] In 1975 he attended the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and was subsequently commissioned into the Scots Guards.[8] Duncan Smith's biography, on the Conservative Party website, claimed he was "educated at Dunchurch College of Management" but following questioning by the BBC his office confirmed that he did not get any qualifications there either, stating that he completed six separate courses lasting a few days each, adding up to about a month in total.[7] Dunchurch was the former staff college for GEC Marconi, for whom Duncan Smith worked in the 1980s.[7]
What is it about Tores and Truth? Question for Michael Green
Yeah, I'm not sure that IDS making dodgy claims about his education is a great defence against the so-called scourge of tax avoiders going to the bother of varying his father's will in order to put him in a position to avoid inheritance tax.
Cameron could never get the 43% who backed JM4PM including an extraordinary personal vote in his constituency. Let's compare their personal votes 1992 vs 2010.
Major - 48662 (66%/52%) Cameron - 33973 (59%/43%)
That's total votes followed by the % of the vote they got and the percentage of registered voters who supported them. Amidst all the fuss last week about the Tory fundraiser I thought a vital point was missed. Previous Tory PMs may have cultivated the rich or admired 'buccaneering businessmen' but they were always quite careful about their own image. The one nation tradition that sustained them up to Heath, followed by Thatcher who was always the disciplinarian school marm even if her policies made loads a'money possible and Major was the ordinary bloke from Brixton. That care seems to have been completely lost under Cameron and Osborne. Perhaps they thought if it was okay for New Labour to have an unapologetic appreciation of wealth, why not them? That carelessness could be their undoing.
Huntingdon in 1992 was a massively oversized constituency with an electorate of 93,000. nearly 20,000 votes were shunted off into the new NW Cambs seat for 1997. Witney in 2010 had 78k electors
Which is why I put the percentages in. I can only repeat the point though. David Cameron has shown no sign that he is capable of building the size of coalition that John Major did after 13 years in power and during a recession.
@rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie
Wow, Milliband has just turned a winning hand into a losing hand. He's discaraded the pair from a full house to try and draw 4 of a kind. What a maroon.
Not so sure about that.
And have you tried Holdem? Much better game than Draw!
My best game is Pot Limit Omaha High-Low but I vastly prefer Draw to Texas Holdem, partly because there's a lot more action so I don't get bored and mostly because other players are rank rotten at playing draw, especially sit'n'gos.
One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.
By small majorities he presumably means under 13,000?
Neil Kinnock, the former Labour leader, has dismissed fears about the party’s proposed mansion tax, saying that the monthly charge would be little more than an expensive lunch.
Several Labour MPs have spoken out against the policy — which involves an average payment of about £1,000 a month — warning that it could cost the party votes in central London where the house prices have seen rapid growth in recent decades.
"Yeah, I'm not sure that IDS making dodgy claims about his education is a great defence against the so-called scourge of tax avoiders going to the bother of varying his father's will in order to put him in a position to avoid inheritance tax."
What matters is whether he looks and sounds like a tax fiddler. I maintain he doesn't. In fact he strikes me as the last person likely to try to avoid tax,
By contrast IDS strikes me and most people as as about as sleazy as it's possible for a politician to be and in the court of public opinion that's all that'll matter
One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.
Neil Kinnock, the former Labour leader, has dismissed fears about the party’s proposed mansion tax, saying that the monthly charge would be little more than an expensive lunch.
Several Labour MPs have spoken out against the policy — which involves an average payment of about £1,000 a month — warning that it could cost the party votes in central London where the house prices have seen rapid growth in recent decades.
“I’ll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the years sticking to that, out-dated, mis-placed, irrelevant to the real needs, and you end in the grotesque chaos of a Labour government – a Labour government - hiring taxis to scuttle round a city taking lunch money off its own champagne socialists".
One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.
By small majorities he presumably means under 13,000?
One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.
One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.
Who are these MPs with small majorities?
Ian Murray & Mark Lazarowicz. But they have the inestimable advantage of having the Lib Dems in 2nd place...
@rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie
Wow, Milliband has just turned a winning hand into a losing hand. He's discaraded the pair from a full house to try and draw 4 of a kind. What a maroon.
Not so sure about that.
And have you tried Holdem? Much better game than Draw!
My best game is Pot Limit Omaha High-Low but I vastly prefer Draw to Texas Holdem, partly because there's a lot more action so I don't get bored and mostly because other players are rank rotten at playing draw, especially sit'n'gos.
I have been mulling a version of Holdem that includes changing cards. Why couldn't you have a system whereby you could change up to two cards at any time? (but in only one transaction) I have never dared suggest it to my card school, which is extremely conservative and has stuck with holdem for years...
Ed Milliband is a moron for asking IDS for an apology.... Or, he really does want to talk about tax, because, after the crap dies down, someone is going to look at the other sides tax details.
"Yeah, I'm not sure that IDS making dodgy claims about his education is a great defence against the so-called scourge of tax avoiders going to the bother of varying his father's will in order to put him in a position to avoid inheritance tax."
What matters is whether he looks and sounds like a tax fiddler. I maintain he doesn't. In fact he strikes me as the last person likely to try to avoid tax,
By contrast IDS strikes me and most people as as about as sleazy as it's possible for a politician to be and in the court of public opinion that's all that'll matter
Speaking under the condition of anonymity, the MPs painted a dire picture of the party’s hopes north of the border ranging from disbelief at the scale of the collapse to utter despondency.
One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.
Another said the abandonment of voters from Labour since the independence vote was comparable to the “backlash” the Conservatives suffered over the poll tax, adding: “There has been an emotional breakage between Scottish voters and Labour. God knows if it can be reformed.”
A third, when asked how things were looking in Scotland, simply formed his hand into a gun, raised it to his mouth and pulled the trigger."
@rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie
Wow, Milliband has just turned a winning hand into a losing hand. He's discaraded the pair from a full house to try and draw 4 of a kind. What a maroon.
Not so sure about that.
And have you tried Holdem? Much better game than Draw!
My best game is Pot Limit Omaha High-Low but I vastly prefer Draw to Texas Holdem, partly because there's a lot more action so I don't get bored and mostly because other players are rank rotten at playing draw, especially sit'n'gos.
I have been mulling a version of Holdem that includes changing cards. Why couldn't you have a system whereby you could change up to two cards at any time? (but in only one transaction) I have never dared suggest it to my card school, which is extremely conservative and has stuck with holdem for years...
"Speaking under the condition of anonymity, the MPs painted a dire picture of the party’s hopes north of the border ranging from disbelief at the scale of the collapse to utter despondency."
But as we now all know thanks to Peter Oborne the Telegraph just pull stories out of their backside. Not a single name on their story. In the honesty stakes I'd almost put them up there with Grant Shapps
One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.
By small majorities he presumably means under 13,000?
One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.
Who are these MPs with small majorities?
It is an amazing turn of phrase.
I found one, Ayrshire North & Arran is a majority of a mere 9895 over the SNP.
Ed Milliband is a moron for asking IDS for an apology.... Or, he really does want to talk about tax, because, after the crap dies down, someone is going to look at the other sides tax details.
One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.
By small majorities he presumably means under 13,000?
One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.
Who are these MPs with small majorities?
It is an amazing turn of phrase.
I found one, Ayrshire North & Arran is a majority of a mere 9895 over the SNP.
Oh and Aberdeen North is 8361.
The closest SNP challenge is actually in Ochil & South Perthshire, with a modest 5,187 [10.3%] majority. Unsurprisingly they are 1/6 [value?] to take this.
But as we now all know thanks to Peter Oborne the Telegraph just pull stories out of their backside. Not a single name on their story. In the honesty stakes I'd almost put them up there with Grant Shapps
Isn't Peter Oborne's allegation more that the Telegraph just pull stories?
But as we now all know thanks to Peter Oborne the Telegraph just pull stories out of their backside. Not a single name on their story. In the honesty stakes I'd almost put them up there with Grant Shapps
Isn't Peter Oborne's allegation more that the Telegraph just pull stories?
Just by way of puncturing our little bubble still further, it should be noted that betting on Who Killed Lucy Beale? has vastly exceeded betting on the General Election so far, according to most bookies' reps.
"Yeah, I'm not sure that IDS making dodgy claims about his education is a great defence against the so-called scourge of tax avoiders going to the bother of varying his father's will in order to put him in a position to avoid inheritance tax."
What matters is whether he looks and sounds like a tax fiddler. I maintain he doesn't. In fact he strikes me as the last person likely to try to avoid tax,
By contrast IDS strikes me and most people as as about as sleazy as it's possible for a politician to be and in the court of public opinion that's all that'll matter
You've clearly never met the man. I can tell you he would never be gratuitously rude to someone he has never met.
Comments
On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%
(I think the latter was skewed by over optimistic Nats)
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/addprediction.php
But then I'm a reasonable person. My reading of PB over the past few months suggests to me that some here are holding you personally responsible.
Who ever said life was fair, young Sunil?
Betting question - anyone offering odds that Cameron Clegg and Milliband will all no longer be party leaders by the end of the year? Because I think Clegg is losing in Hallam, whichever of Cameron or Milliband isn't PM in June won't stay on as leader, and there is a decent chance both of a 2nd election and a change of maths swapping things around after it.
Its not impossible that by December Boris is PM, Farron leads whats left of the LibDems, and Umunna leads Labour...
Precisely what sort of Government do you propose we should adopt under your result ?
Well down the second page and no one has Lab or Con 325 or over.
Edit, just seen Timmo with a 328. Ignore me no glasses on, can't see!
That's why I'm torn
However, I think it's be down to the Lib Dems. If they went for a second Con-Lib Coalition, we'd get that. If they preferred to lick their wounds then it'd be, er, interesting. It'd be an incredibly messy result.
On the Search page: if you click on any of the column headings, e.g. Cons, Lab, then it will order by that column, so it's easy to see the range of guesses for that party.
If I wasn't betting on the GE my entry could be different.
Given the present state of polling however, I fear even a remotely accurate prediction may be beyond the wisdom of the PB crowd : ) – good luck to all taking part.
Interesting to hear them try to defend it as a non partisan document when of course anyone can see it isn't. I thought bishops were supposed to be truthful.
One of their ruled out blocs is wrong imo:
We exclude Labour partnering with the Conservatives, UKIP, DUP or Sinn Fein; we exclude Conservatives partnering with Labour, SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru, SDLP or Sinn Fein.
Seems a bit odd to not have a summary for a 52 page document, but there we are.
Mr. Price, interesting suggestion. Would you advocate it being on party lines, or a more liberal/authoritarian (social) and socialist/capitalist sort of lines?
Murphy's seat the safest (Non SNP) in Scotland.
He was 0.02% out on the Yes vote, and 0.06% out on turnout
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/results.php?b=0&s_Name=&o_lcl=C_1
https://user.nojam.com/pid/50/live/averagebygeparty.php
As I understand it, this will be a regular thing between now and election day
Big lols.
One to watch.
And have you tried Holdem? Much better game than Draw!
I reckon about the same number as who know that Stanley Fink is not dodgy.
(In any event, Miliband has reduced the size of his mother's estate and thereby reduced a potential future liability. He's not avoided tax. Yet.)
It is indeed one to watch
The PB Tories did best overall though, to no-one's surprise.
@Isam Will give you best price on the Conservatives, head through vanilla messaging to get to him. He seems to be banned on here (right now...) but I can confirm he pays up.
Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie
Shouldn't IDS be worried someone might ask him about his degree from Perugia University?
Wasn't there also a general 2014 predictions competition thingummyjig? Or am I raving drunkard whose brandy-fuelled misrememberings bear no relation to reality?
Britain is a giant jobs powerhouse.
Lib Dem share 35.2% in NE Derbyshire.
Far far far far far more ludicrous than the SNP projections.
He'll be hung, drawn and quartered by the court of public opinion.... I can't see Rod Crosby explaining the subtleties of his use of a Deed of Variation to The Man In The Checkout Queue.....
.....Duncan Smith was educated at what is now St. Peter's RC Secondary School, Solihull, until the age of 14,[6] then at HMS Conway, a Merchant Navy training school on the Isle of Anglesey (where he allegedly played rugby union in the position of fly-half alongside Clive Woodward at centre) until he was 18.
His claim that he studied at the University of Perugia was later found to be false after an investigation by the BBC.[7] His office subsequently admitted that he attended the Italian Università per Stranieri (founded 1921) in Perugia for a year but he did not obtain any qualifications or finish his exams.[7] In 1975 he attended the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and was subsequently commissioned into the Scots Guards.[8] Duncan Smith's biography, on the Conservative Party website, claimed he was "educated at Dunchurch College of Management" but following questioning by the BBC his office confirmed that he did not get any qualifications there either, stating that he completed six separate courses lasting a few days each, adding up to about a month in total.[7] Dunchurch was the former staff college for GEC Marconi, for whom Duncan Smith worked in the 1980s.[7]
What is it about Tores and Truth? Question for Michael Green
Wasn't there also a general 2014 predictions competition thingummyjig?
There were four that I know of last year.
Euros
IndyRef
Rochester & Strood
Survation SNP lead after the new SLab leader.
Or am I raving drunkard whose brandy-fuelled misrememberings bear no relation to reality?
No comment.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11413557/Scottish-Labour-MPs-threaten-to-bar-Ed-Miliband-from-campaigning-in-their-seats.html
"To test the mood within the party this newspaper talked to numerous Scottish Labour MPs about their hopes of mounting a comeback after the alarming slump in support since the Scottish independence referendum last September.
Speaking under the condition of anonymity, the MPs painted a dire picture of the party’s hopes north of the border ranging from disbelief at the scale of the collapse to utter despondency.
One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.
Another said the abandonment of voters from Labour since the independence vote was comparable to the “backlash” the Conservatives suffered over the poll tax, adding: “There has been an emotional breakage between Scottish voters and Labour. God knows if it can be reformed.”
A third, when asked how things were looking in Scotland, simply formed his hand into a gun, raised it to his mouth and pulled the trigger."
"Yeah, I'm not sure that IDS making dodgy claims about his education is a great defence against the so-called scourge of tax avoiders going to the bother of varying his father's will in order to put him in a position to avoid inheritance tax."
What matters is whether he looks and sounds like a tax fiddler. I maintain he doesn't. In fact he strikes me as the last person likely to try to avoid tax,
By contrast IDS strikes me and most people as as about as sleazy as it's possible for a politician to be and in the court of public opinion that's all that'll matter
“I’ll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the years sticking to that, out-dated, mis-placed, irrelevant to the real needs, and you end in the grotesque chaos of a Labour government – a Labour government - hiring taxis to scuttle round a city taking lunch money off its own champagne socialists".
Or, he really does want to talk about tax, because, after the crap dies down, someone is going to look at the other sides tax details.
Really?
Boring. Misunderstood. Uninspiring. Quiet. Straightforward.
But I don't see much sleaze about him. He's too prosaic for sleaze.
At the sort of prices mentioned the portion size would be verging on the homeopathic.
"Speaking under the condition of anonymity, the MPs painted a dire picture of the party’s hopes north of the border ranging from disbelief at the scale of the collapse to utter despondency."
But as we now all know thanks to Peter Oborne the Telegraph just pull stories out of their backside. Not a single name on their story. In the honesty stakes I'd almost put them up there with Grant Shapps
Oh and Aberdeen North is 8361.
1 Lab 19,131 37.9%
2 Nat 13,944 27.6%
3 Con 10,342 20.5%
4 LD 5,754 11.4%
I can tell you he would never be gratuitously rude to someone he has never met.