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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After this week’s “pollercoaster” now YOU predict the elect

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  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheWatcher
    Papers playing by Tory rules you mean, but not all the media are poodles?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Roger said:

    But as we now all know thanks to Peter Oborne the Telegraph just pull stories out of their backside. Not a single name on their story. In the honesty stakes I'd almost put them up there with Grant Shapps

    Isn't Peter Oborne's allegation more that the Telegraph just pull stories?
    ...about anyone with a large advertising budget.
    So all Labour need to do is sink some dough into Telegraph ads, and the paper will transform into The Guardian before their very eyes? Shame they're skint.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie

    Wow, Milliband has just turned a winning hand into a losing hand. He's discaraded the pair from a full house to try and draw 4 of a kind. What a maroon.
    Not so sure about that.

    And have you tried Holdem? Much better game than Draw!
    My best game is Pot Limit Omaha High-Low but I vastly prefer Draw to Texas Holdem, partly because there's a lot more action so I don't get bored and mostly because other players are rank rotten at playing draw, especially sit'n'gos.
    I have been mulling a version of Holdem that includes changing cards. Why couldn't you have a system whereby you could change up to two cards at any time? (but in only one transaction) I have never dared suggest it to my card school, which is extremely conservative and has stuck with holdem for years...
    We play all sorts of variations., my fav being one where you are dealt 6 cards which you separate into 2 hands (betting on each separately), then after the flop have to discard one from each hand that you are still playing.

    But yeah, I like Omaha high/low > Omaha > Holdem > Stud > Draw
  • And Carswell leads UKIP perhaps?

    Don't be silly. They will wrest control of the party away from Farage's cold dead hands
  • Jeremy Hunt: Labour’s attempts to weaponise English NHS undermined yet again by new Welsh A&E stats: 82.3% of patients seen in 4hrs v.s 92.9% in England.
  • When does Lord Ashcroft release his second batch of Scottish constituency polls? Has he said yet?
  • Fenster said:



    IDS. Sleazy?

    Really?

    Boring. Misunderstood. Uninspiring. Quiet. Straightforward.

    But I don't see much sleaze about him. He's too prosaic for sleaze.

    You missed off "Sociopathic" and "Satanic"

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Just by way of puncturing our little bubble still further, it should be noted that betting on Who Killed Lucy Beale? has vastly exceeded betting on the General Election so far, according to most bookies' reps.

    https://www.betfair.com/sport/special-bets

    More over-round than the Grand National SPs.
  • Extraordinary how few competition entries predict an overall majority.

    It rather supports the view that odds of 1/4 NOM (1.25 Betfair) are generous.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2015

    Just by way of puncturing our little bubble still further, it should be noted that betting on Who Killed Lucy Beale? has vastly exceeded betting on the General Election so far, according to most bookies' reps.

    I've had a tiny punt on billy mitchell.

    8/1 with BFSB

    That's definitely not a betting tip :)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @RochdalePioneers
    IDS (RTB)?
  • antifrank said:

    When does Lord Ashcroft release his second batch of Scottish constituency polls? Has he said yet?

    He hasn't said yet. But I'm hopeful we'll get them by the middle/end of March.
  • Roger said:

    Neil

    "Yeah, I'm not sure that IDS making dodgy claims about his education is a great defence against the so-called scourge of tax avoiders going to the bother of varying his father's will in order to put him in a position to avoid inheritance tax."

    What matters is whether he looks and sounds like a tax fiddler. I maintain he doesn't. In fact he strikes me as the last person likely to try to avoid tax,

    By contrast IDS strikes me and most people as as about as sleazy as it's possible for a politician to be and in the court of public opinion that's all that'll matter

    Tribal politics is both childish and depressing and you are possibly the worst I have ever known.

    Please give it up as you look more stupid with each post.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    antifrank said:

    When does Lord Ashcroft release his second batch of Scottish constituency polls? Has he said yet?

    Just after Lord Aschcroft places his second round of Scotland Constituency bets?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Jeremy Hunt: Labour’s attempts to weaponise English NHS undermined yet again by new Welsh A&E stats: 82.3% of patients seen in 4hrs v.s 92.9% in England.

    I was intrigued that R4 Today's line on this was "they may have spent less on the Welsh NHS, but they've spent a lot more on social care". Who's idea is it to combine the two budgets?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Fenster said:



    IDS. Sleazy?

    Really?

    Boring. Misunderstood. Uninspiring. Quiet. Straightforward.

    But I don't see much sleaze about him. He's too prosaic for sleaze.

    You missed off "Sociopathic" and "Satanic"

    Can I put you down as a fan, then?
  • Extraordinary how few competition entries predict an overall majority.

    It rather supports the view that odds of 1/4 NOM (1.25 Betfair) are generous.

    Well, you'd be very brave to forecast that far away from the models/polls. But a 300+ forecast for either side might suggest that the predictor could foresee an overall majority 20% of the time.

    Anyhow, never mind your humorous yet pusillanimous entry: who do you actually think will win, young man?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    Baskerville

    "You've clearly never met the man.
    I can tell you he would never be gratuitously rude to someone he has never met."

    Happily I haven't but a quick flick through the wiki entry I posted will show you why that doesn't upset me. He and truth are strangers and to accuse a fellow politician of dirty dealing shows the measure of the man. But if you really want a judgement of the man you call friend read this.....

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/may/12/iain-duncan-smith-fiddling-figures
  • Pulpstar said:

    Just by way of puncturing our little bubble still further, it should be noted that betting on Who Killed Lucy Beale? has vastly exceeded betting on the General Election so far, according to most bookies' reps.

    https://www.betfair.com/sport/special-bets

    More over-round than the Grand National SPs.
    More plausible winners, that's why!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Can I just say that Chris Bryant's latest - unsubstantiated - accusation is really vile.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Roger
    Ahh, but he has delivered Universal Credit under budget.... the papers were full of it (actually the papers are always full of "IT")
    Which budget, and which part seems to be shrouded in mystery, along with coherent figures from his department.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie

    Wow, Milliband has just turned a winning hand into a losing hand. He's discaraded the pair from a full house to try and draw 4 of a kind. What a maroon.
    Not so sure about that.

    And have you tried Holdem? Much better game than Draw!
    My best game is Pot Limit Omaha High-Low but I vastly prefer Draw to Texas Holdem, partly because there's a lot more action so I don't get bored and mostly because other players are rank rotten at playing draw, especially sit'n'gos.
    My preferred game is Pot limit Omaha high - less sit n gos and tournies to play though (than Texas) but I mainly play cash in any event
  • Charles said:

    Can I just say that Chris Bryant's latest - unsubstantiated - accusation is really vile.

    The question about Telegraph sitting on email re: child abuse?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2015
    Charles said:

    Can I just say that Chris Bryant's latest - unsubstantiated - accusation is really vile.

    You can. What accusation?

    EDIT: Oh. That one. Jesus. Wasn't he a vicar, as well?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited February 2015
    Mark Senior - SEATS, not vote share!
  • Given potential legal ramifications, it'd be best if people are very careful what they say about that story.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Mark Senior - SEATS, not vote share!

    Senior moment.
  • I see that the two Peters are trying to ruffle feathers with their predictions – in very different ways...
  • Mark Senior - SEATS, not vote share!

    A few have made that error...
  • Charles said:



    Can I put you down as a fan, then?

    I appreciate his existence. The appalling policies, the constant sneer, the way he has managed to unify so many people charities and the church against him. All positives for the Labour Party.
  • Charles said:



    Can I put you down as a fan, then?

    I appreciate his existence. The appalling policies, the constant sneer, the way he has managed to unify so many people charities and the church against him. All positives for the Labour Party.
    If he has upset the people charities and the church then he is doing a good job.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Can I just say that Chris Bryant's latest - unsubstantiated - accusation is really vile.

    The question about Telegraph sitting on email re: child abuse?
    Yes. And the way in which he has now put what he claims to be the contents of email into the public domain.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie

    Wow, Milliband has just turned a winning hand into a losing hand. He's discaraded the pair from a full house to try and draw 4 of a kind. What a maroon.
    Not so sure about that.

    And have you tried Holdem? Much better game than Draw!
    My best game is Pot Limit Omaha High-Low but I vastly prefer Draw to Texas Holdem, partly because there's a lot more action so I don't get bored and mostly because other players are rank rotten at playing draw, especially sit'n'gos.
    My preferred game is Pot limit Omaha high - less sit n gos and tournies to play though (than Texas) but I mainly play cash in any event
    I once entered a Pot Limit Omaha High Tournament by mistake, didn't realise until about the 5th hand where the pot was not split between two people. I had never played High only before but still managed to make it to the final table but using my Pot Limit knowledge and quickly googling some starting hand strengths. I went out to a 4-of-a-kind to my-nut-flush in a piece of incredibly idiotic play by me (so idiotic I can still remember it).

    Basically people are bad at Pot Limit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Pulpstar said:

    Just by way of puncturing our little bubble still further, it should be noted that betting on Who Killed Lucy Beale? has vastly exceeded betting on the General Election so far, according to most bookies' reps.

    https://www.betfair.com/sport/special-bets

    More over-round than the Grand National SPs.
    More plausible winners, that's why!
    Pineau de Re up 8 lbs in the weights this time ;)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Personally I think we should introduce a pb panel of 'experts' (long time contributors) to give their predictions. Have people of various political persuasions too.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    edited February 2015
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Can I just say that Chris Bryant's latest - unsubstantiated - accusation is really vile.

    The question about Telegraph sitting on email re: child abuse?
    Yes. And the way in which he has now put what he claims to be the contents of email into the public domain.
    He's retweeting Tom Watson... Unless you're talking about something else?

    Chris Bryant retweeted
    tom_watson @tom_watson · 5h 5 hours ago
    Are executives at the Telegraph sitting on emails that may help the police inquiry into child abuse? medium.com/@tom_watson/the-revelatio…
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Personally I think we should introduce a pb panel of 'experts' (long time contributors) to give their predictions. Have people of various political persuasions too.

    It was entertaining enough the last time it was done!

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Neil said:

    It was entertaining enough the last time it was done!

    No, it really wasn't
  • Smarmeron said:

    @Roger
    Ahh, but he has delivered Universal Credit under budget.... the papers were full of it (actually the papers are always full of "IT")
    Which budget, and which part seems to be shrouded in mystery, along with coherent figures from his department.

    It's amazing how any project can come in under budget when you write gigantic chunks of it off.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Scott_P said:

    Neil said:

    It was entertaining enough the last time it was done!

    No, it really wasn't
    It kept tim going for years!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    Pulpstar

    "Which side of the bet do you want ?"

    I want to bet on Reckless. It seems very few of the bookmakers are taking constituency bets
  • Pulpstar said:
    Whose forecast is that?
  • Sad that it would have to come to this, but I'd be happy to do this in the UK

    Norwegian Muslims plan to form a “ring of peace” around a synagogue in Oslo this Saturday as a gesture of solidarity with the Jewish community in the Scandinavian country.

    “If the jihadists want to use violence in the name of Islam, they must go through us Muslims first,” one of the event’s planners told Hope Not Hate, a grassroots anti-extremism organization based in Britain.

    “Muslims want to show that we deeply despise all types hatred of Jews, and that we are there to support them,” the group said in a statement to Hope Not Hate.

    http://www.jpost.com/International/Norwegian-Muslims-to-form-ring-of-peace-around-Oslo-synagogue-as-gesture-of-solidarity-with-Jews-391381
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited February 2015
    Roger said:

    Pulpstar

    "Which side of the bet do you want ?"

    I want to bet on Reckless. It seems very few of the bookmakers are taking constituency bets

    Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook are both still 11-10 on Reckless.

    Given Ladbrokes is 8-11, definitely value if you aren't in already.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Pulpstar said:
    Whose forecast is that?
    No idea, I'd make a fortune on it - but its not my wishful thinking.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pulpstar said:
    That must be the most ludicrous set of forecasts ever produced , Lib Dems to gain Derb shire Dales and Bedford , numerous Green gains and Plaid almost sweeping Wales , What planet does the forecaster come from ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited February 2015

    Pulpstar said:
    That must be the most ludicrous set of forecasts ever produced , Lib Dems to gain Derb shire Dales and Bedford , numerous Green gains and Plaid almost sweeping Wales , What planet does the forecaster come from ?
    Hah - amongst the ludicrous ones though some are quite plausible. Yeovil for instance...
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Whose forecast is that?
    No idea, I'd make a fortune on it - but its not my wishful thinking.
    Yes, very much so. How did you find/get the link?
  • Redcar is a bit of an oddity though. Should be an easy retake for Labour. But as the party has just deselected most of the sitting councillors leading to a symbolic tearing up a big Labour membership card for the meeja outside our PPC's office, who knows what will happen
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Redcar is a bit of an oddity though. Should be an easy retake for Labour. But as the party has just deselected most of the sitting councillors leading to a symbolic tearing up a big Labour membership card for the meeja outside our PPC's office, who knows what will happen

    Dunno but 50+% for the Lib Dems there is for the birds.
  • Mr. Eagles, a nice gesture, though I agree with you it's sad it's come to this.

    Things will get worse before they get better. How much worse depends most of all on the political class, as well as the media.
  • Redcar is a bit of an oddity though. Should be an easy retake for Labour. But as the party has just deselected most of the sitting councillors leading to a symbolic tearing up a big Labour membership card for the meeja outside our PPC's office, who knows what will happen

    So long as Vera Baird isn't the Labour candidate, Labour gain nailed on.
  • How's Tom Watson's campaign to get the Mirror shut down going?
  • Pulpstar said:
    Whose forecast is that?
    Somebody with a laughable expectation of UKIP's performance by the look of the spreadsheet.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Redcar is a bit of an oddity though. Should be an easy retake for Labour.........who knows what will happen.

    The must be a bucketful of 'should be a labour retake, but...' seats
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Who's offering these odds and can you bet against some of these forecasts, like the suggested UKIP victory in ... Aldridge Brownhills?!
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Whose forecast is that?
    No idea, I'd make a fortune on it - but its not my wishful thinking.
    Green gain Bury St. Edmunds, Lib Dems hold Mid Dorset and Poole North with a majority of over 20%, and UKIP gain High Peak.

    Nurse!!
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    edited February 2015
    Labour doner Alex Ferguson now exposed as a tax avoider, bet he's well impressed with Ed.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Pulpstar said:
    Whose forecast is that?
    I believe it comes from http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/01/24/forecasting-the-2015-uk-general-election/

    There's some sloppy errors like getting Dumfries and Galloway confused with Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweedsdale along with the insanity
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Pulpstar said:
    Whose forecast is that?
    Somebody with a laughable expectation of UKIP's performance by the look of the spreadsheet.

    Despite the incredulously bullish Lib Dem expectation in England, whoever has done the spreadsheet still forecasts the Lib Dems to finish 4th or lower in Norwich South.

    Is 14-1 the longest odds for any MP to hold their seat at this moment in time ?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    Labour doner Alex Ferguson now exposed as a tax avoider, bet he's well impressed with Ed.

    Fergie well and truly kebabbed!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Redcar is a bit of an oddity though. Should be an easy retake for Labour. But as the party has just deselected most of the sitting councillors leading to a symbolic tearing up a big Labour membership card for the meeja outside our PPC's office, who knows what will happen

    Voters rarely pay attention to the shenanigans of councillors but it does seem like more of a feud / personality clash than an average deselection row. I see the independents actually held on to the leadership of the council. One was talking about the possibility of running for the Greens in May (the President of the RMT is the Green party GE candidate there) but I have no idea what if any approaches have been made. Would have been even more fun if Swales had not stood down already.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Paddys have lengthened Clegg to 2/5 to hold Sheffield Hallam. Labour now 7/4.
  • Well why not. Stockton South MP James Wharton keeps taking photos of himself on Stockton High Street and campaigning on it as an issue in his leaflets.

    Stockton High Street is in Stockton North with Alex Cunningham as the MP.

  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Whose forecast is that?
    Somebody with a laughable expectation of UKIP's performance by the look of the spreadsheet.

    Despite the incredulously bullish Lib Dem expectation in England, whoever has done the spreadsheet still forecasts the Lib Dems to finish 4th or lower in Norwich South.

    Is 14-1 the longest odds for any MP to hold their seat at this moment in time ?
    The Lib Dems will certainly finish 4th in Norwich South

    If they can beat UKIP.

  • Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Whose forecast is that?
    I believe it comes from http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/01/24/forecasting-the-2015-uk-general-election/

    There's some sloppy errors like getting Dumfries and Galloway confused with Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweedsdale along with the insanity
    Thanks. He puts the tool into sluggerotoole with ludicrous forecasts like that.
  • Well why not. Stockton South MP James Wharton keeps taking photos of himself on Stockton High Street and campaigning on it as an issue in his leaflets.

    Stockton High Street is in Stockton North with Alex Cunningham as the MP.

    That's a bit different, surely? - the High Street is of interest to residents in both constituencies.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:
    8/1 - good price for Labour. I think.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:
    8/1 - good price for Labour. I think.

    Glad to hear the sitting MP is cocking it up as I'm on Labour here.
  • Stop talking about Labour gaining Enfield Southgate.

    It brings back bad memories for us Blues
  • Stop talking about Labour gaining Enfield Southgate.

    It brings back bad memories for us Blues

    On the plus side, would Portillo have made all those great railway programmes if he was still in Parliament?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Stop talking about Labour gaining Enfield Southgate.

    It brings back bad memories for us Blues

    Lab won the 2014 locals here. GE turnout should be even better for them. You can see why the local MP is out canvassing though it would be better for him to stay within the constituency. 8/1 is not bad at all...

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Someone page @OGH

    Lib Dem GAIN Bedford !

    Bedford LD 35.6% CON 31.9% LAB 29.9%
  • Stop talking about Labour gaining Enfield Southgate.

    It brings back bad memories for us Blues

    The worst of it was that Portillo gave Professor Anthony King a line to repeat ad nauseam.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Stop talking about Labour gaining Enfield Southgate.

    It brings back bad memories for us Blues

    And the sad demise of a potentially great PM. Proud, erect on display for the last time.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESxaGRjXhCk

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    @Sunil Wes Streeting seems like a very above average Labour candidate, I think you'd be best advised to put a tick in his box :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Can I just say that Chris Bryant's latest - unsubstantiated - accusation is really vile.

    The question about Telegraph sitting on email re: child abuse?
    Yes. And the way in which he has now put what he claims to be the contents of email into the public domain.
    He's retweeting Tom Watson... Unless you're talking about something else?

    Chris Bryant retweeted
    tom_watson @tom_watson · 5h 5 hours ago
    Are executives at the Telegraph sitting on emails that may help the police inquiry into child abuse? medium.com/@tom_watson/the-revelatio…
    Implication from here is that it is Bryant not watson making the comments

    http://order-order.com/2015/02/18/tories-deny-watsons-theory-re-bryant-and-thetelegraph/
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    Sad that it would have to come to this, but I'd be happy to do this in the UK

    Norwegian Muslims plan to form a “ring of peace” around a synagogue in Oslo this Saturday as a gesture of solidarity with the Jewish community in the Scandinavian country.

    “If the jihadists want to use violence in the name of Islam, they must go through us Muslims first,” one of the event’s planners told Hope Not Hate, a grassroots anti-extremism organization based in Britain.

    “Muslims want to show that we deeply despise all types hatred of Jews, and that we are there to support them,” the group said in a statement to Hope Not Hate.

    http://www.jpost.com/International/Norwegian-Muslims-to-form-ring-of-peace-around-Oslo-synagogue-as-gesture-of-solidarity-with-Jews-391381

    A lovely gesture. Something similar was done in Egypt a while back but in relation to Coptic Christians.

  • Interesting that Shadsy has Labour on 278, just ahead of the Tories on 272 in this first PB.com GE 2015 seats competition. For those of a nervous disposition or for anyone considering their first political bet, one can do a whole lot worse than simply following the lead set by the Sage of the Magic Sign ..... I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.

    Btw, are the powers that be any closer to settling on a venue for an all-night gathering of PBers on GE night after considerable initial enthusiasm for such an event had been expressed?
  • Pulpstar said:
    Whose forecast is that?
    Somebody with a laughable expectation of UKIP's performance by the look of the spreadsheet.

    Yes it's ridiculous if it includes UKIP taking Fareham!
    This is what happened to their PPC - http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-parliamentary-candidate-leaves-over-chairman-s-criminal-record-1-6546275
  • Mr. Putney, indeed, Mr. Shadsy knows his beans.

    That said, this election is very difficult to call.
  • Pulpstar said:
    Is it just me or does he actually lower his tone when he says "and he's turning up the volume"?
  • I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.

    Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Have I got this right about the in-touch-with-ordinary-people Labour Party?

    £1000 per month is what you spend on lunch. (Copyright: Neil Kinnock)

    And you can get your hedge cut for £10. (Copyright: Ed Balls)
  • Well why not. Stockton South MP James Wharton keeps taking photos of himself on Stockton High Street and campaigning on it as an issue in his leaflets.

    Stockton High Street is in Stockton North with Alex Cunningham as the MP.

    That's a bit different, surely? - the High Street is of interest to residents in both constituencies.
    Lots of things are of interest outside the constituency. Point is that MPs aren't supposed to cross boundaries without informing the relevant MP. Wharton does it a lot (to the point of a public reprimand from the speaker).

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    BILL97 0 0 0 0 0 53
    MikeK 6 2 0 604 1 19
    Warren Swan 29 28 6 24 7 4
    trev bevan 29 37 10 8 10 6
    Joshua Dixon 31 31 14 13 5 5
    Pete Garrard 32 37 6 14 4 3
    richard prew 34 32 10 11 6 7
    Matthew Duddy 35 29 10 10 5 3
    Theo Barclay 35 33 8 12 6 6
    Mr_James 36 36 12 8 4 2
    barry clark 39 27 7 8 2 14

    Are all vote share predictions screwing up the averages. I assume Bill97 is counting on a "Respect" surge - which is no more ludicrous than MikeK's prediction.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Have I got this right about the in-touch-with-ordinary-people Labour Party?

    £1000 per month is what you spend on lunch. (Copyright: Neil Kinnock)

    And you can get your hedge cut for £10. (Copyright: Ed Balls)

    I expect they know the price of a pint of almond milk and a loaf of focaccia, though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    You probably can get your hedge cut in Morley and Outwood for a tenner tbh ^^;
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Labour doner Alex Ferguson now exposed as a tax avoider, bet he's well impressed with Ed.

    Wouldn't you just love to see Sir Alex give Ed the hairdryer treatment?

    Pay Per View....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Neil said:

    Stop talking about Labour gaining Enfield Southgate.

    It brings back bad memories for us Blues

    Lab won the 2014 locals here. GE turnout should be even better for them. You can see why the local MP is out canvassing though it would be better for him to stay within the constituency. 8/1 is not bad at all...

    Labour won the 1986 locals in Finchley. The 1987 result was somewhat different.

    If Labour take Southgate, they'll have a majority of 100 or so.

  • I'll be surprised if he's more than 10 seats out on either of these assessments.

    Given that we're in February, I expect shadsy himself will be pretty surprised if he's within 10 seats on both. As should anyone, whatever their prediction. Even MikeK might be 10 seats out if UKIP just do a bit better in Glasgow.
    There was a cricket-specialist firm that let you pick your own 55-run middle (on an ODI innings) at even money. Surprisingly large, isn't it?

    Likewise I think one could let people name their own 35-seat band for either of the major parties at present and lay that at evens.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    Well why not. Stockton South MP James Wharton keeps taking photos of himself on Stockton High Street and campaigning on it as an issue in his leaflets.

    Stockton High Street is in Stockton North with Alex Cunningham as the MP.

    That's a bit different, surely? - the High Street is of interest to residents in both constituencies.
    Lots of things are of interest outside the constituency. Point is that MPs aren't supposed to cross boundaries without informing the relevant MP. Wharton does it a lot (to the point of a public reprimand from the speaker).

    You've got to feel sorry for MP for Westminster, all those other MPs invading their turf!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Redcar is a bit of an oddity though. Should be an easy retake for Labour. But as the party has just deselected most of the sitting councillors leading to a symbolic tearing up a big Labour membership card for the meeja outside our PPC's office, who knows what will happen

    The only way Labour don't gain Redcar is if The Disgruntled form a Redcar Independents group..... That would throw all the pieces up in the air.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited February 2015
    Sean_F said:

    Neil said:

    Stop talking about Labour gaining Enfield Southgate.

    It brings back bad memories for us Blues

    Lab won the 2014 locals here. GE turnout should be even better for them. You can see why the local MP is out canvassing though it would be better for him to stay within the constituency. 8/1 is not bad at all...

    Labour won the 1986 locals in Finchley. The 1987 result was somewhat different.

    If Labour take Southgate, they'll have a majority of 100 or so.

    Not if they bomb in the Midlands they won't - not enough Marginals/semi-marginals in London for a major surge there to counteract a poor performance in the Midlands.
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