Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After this week’s “pollercoaster” now YOU predict the elect

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After this week’s “pollercoaster” now YOU predict the election in PB’s Prize Competition


Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter seat totals for the main parties. The winner will be the person with the smallest overall error.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited February 2015
    Oooh, many thanks to Mike, Marf, Mark Hopkins and Spin for all of this
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.
  • Just a query on the name: ok to use pb.com username or should we use real names?
  • I'm giving up PB for Lent (only kidding!)

    Nice cartoon, Marf :)
  • When is the closing date for the compy?
  • The pedant in me is looking at the restaurant name in the mirror Marf. I guess intended to be Wiltons. But actually Snotliw. Sounds about right.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Patrick said:

    The pedant in me is looking at the restaurant name in the mirror Marf. I guess intended to be Wiltons. But actually Snotliw. Sounds about right.

    Beat me to it!
  • Just a query on the name: ok to use pb.com username or should we use real names?

    In the past, people have used either
  • Is the Speaker to be included as a Conservative? After all, I do want to get this precisely right.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Errm on the SNP my 4% is for NATIONAL polling level.

    Is it supposed to b Scotland only - there is a clear divide amongst entries on this.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    True, but motorways are safe as you don't hit oncoming drivers. (barring the odd confused OAP)
  • Morris Dancer it is then. Cheers, Mr. Eagles.
  • SEATS not VOTE SHARE!!!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    I was just about to submit my entry when I realised we have to estimate seats rather than vote share. Doh!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Oh Jesus I realise I've given a vote share prediction, not seats !
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.
  • F1: in the least surprising news for some time, Bahrain has indicated it doesn't want Qatar to get a race. And as Bahrain has some serious clout, I would be somewhat surprised if Qatar ended up getting one.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Oh Jesus I realise I've given a vote share prediction, not seats !

    That will be one small parliament :)
  • antifrank said:

    Is the Speaker to be included as a Conservative? After all, I do want to get this precisely right.

    Bercow didn't stand as a Conservative in 2010.
  • Oh cock, I made a typo in mine, SNP on 46, not 36
  • Anorak said:

    (barring the odd confused OAP)

    I'm sure Mike knows his Highway Code :)

  • Anorak said:

    Patrick said:

    The pedant in me is looking at the restaurant name in the mirror Marf. I guess intended to be Wiltons. But actually Snotliw. Sounds about right.

    Beat me to it!
    Anorak/Patrick

    I'll point it out to Her Marfness. She actually quite likes that kind of feedback - well, any feedback really, short of downright abuse - and will probably update with a corrected version later.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Some people seem to have gone with percentages.
  • Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    antifrank said:

    Is the Speaker to be included as a Conservative? After all, I do want to get this precisely right.

    I wouldn't have thought so. The current Speaker is Labour through and through.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    Redone it with a seat projection.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Average of total seats on 33 submissions so far is 602. Should be 630ish by my reckoning.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    At least half a dozen now. Still the LD average looks unaffected ;)

  • F1: apparently in-season helmet changes are to be banned.

    Nice to see the FIA being decisive on something that matters to almost no-one and does nothing to resolve the fundamental problems regarding the financial aspect of the sport.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Anorak said:

    Average of total seats on 33 submissions so far is 602. Should be 630ish by my reckoning.

    My first entry needs scrubbing.

    As does Richard's.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Interesting that so few have Labour as largest party.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited February 2015
    Mr. Anorak, ha, now you mention it I forget about Northern Ireland (sorry) *and* Plaid, so mine add up to 650. Ahem. Whoops.

    Edited extra bit: terribly sorry, Mr. Eagles, but if you could have mine axed as well, that'd be splendid.
  • Anorak said:

    Patrick said:

    The pedant in me is looking at the restaurant name in the mirror Marf. I guess intended to be Wiltons. But actually Snotliw. Sounds about right.

    Beat me to it!
    Anorak/Patrick

    I'll point it out to Her Marfness. She actually quite likes that kind of feedback - well, any feedback really, short of downright abuse - and will probably update with a corrected version later.
    Maybe it was intentional? Snotliw sounds satirical!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2015

    Interesting that so few have Labour as largest party.....

    The Herd is Strong. Moooo.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited February 2015
    Oh My Days, Lord Ashcroft, has tweeted, that is something you might expect me to tweet, but is absolutely NSFW

    Although, I'd like to point out that's a seagull and not a pigeon

    http://tinyurl.com/nfmacco
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Interesting that so few have Labour as largest party.....

    I think the chap with Labour on "0" isn't helping.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Interesting that the average predictions currently only add up to 560 seats...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Warren Swan, Richard Prew, Josh Dixon and Barry Clark need to redo their entries.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    I think it was a car at 90 rear ending a car at 70.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    People obviously aren't in the know that SNOTLIW's is THE new restaurant to be seen in....
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2015
    Great competition mike. Cudos to Marf & SPIN for putting up prizes, also.

    I'm going to have a think on this before submitting. My initial hunch is to go for whatever the PB average consensus is;

    - 14 Con Seats
    + 16 Lab Seats
    - 2 UKIP Seats

  • Put your money on Villa to be relegated

    Aston Villa fan David Cameron backs Tim Sherwood appointment

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/18/david-cameron-backs-tim-sherwood-aston-villa
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Mo Farah labels fellow British runner Andy Vernon 'an embarrassment'... and says Taylor Swift would run faster in Twitter spat

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/othersports/article-2957631/Mo-Farah-labels-fellow-British-runner-Andy-Vernon-embarrassment-Twitter-spat.html

    Now this is what you call a good twitter spat - lol
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Put your money on Villa to be relegated

    Aston Villa fan David Cameron backs Tim Sherwood appointment

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/18/david-cameron-backs-tim-sherwood-aston-villa

    What money, it's all tied up on the GE :P !
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Was taken to Wiltons once - most disappointing - it was worse than school dinners of years ago.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited February 2015

    Oh My Days, Lord Ashcroft, has tweeted, that is something you might expect me to tweet, but is absolutely NSFW

    Although, I'd like to point out that's seagull and not a pigeon.

    http://tinyurl.com/nfmacco

    Brilliant - lol
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    fpt - my reply to TSE's Cameron/Major comparison

    Cameron could never get the 43% who backed JM4PM including an extraordinary personal vote in his constituency. Let's compare their personal votes 1992 vs 2010.

    Major - 48662 (66%/52%)
    Cameron - 33973 (59%/43%)

    That's total votes followed by the % of the vote they got and the percentage of registered voters who supported them. Amidst all the fuss last week about the Tory fundraiser I thought a vital point was missed. Previous Tory PMs may have cultivated the rich or admired 'buccaneering businessmen' but they were always quite careful about their own image. The one nation tradition that sustained them up to Heath, followed by Thatcher who was always the disciplinarian school marm even if her policies made loads a'money possible and Major was the ordinary bloke from Brixton. That care seems to have been completely lost under Cameron and Osborne. Perhaps they thought if it was okay for New Labour to have an unapologetic appreciation of wealth, why not them? That carelessness could be their undoing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    The invisible man reckons wipeout for Labour, George Galloway PM ?
  • Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    I think it was a car at 90 rear ending a car at 70.
    That's still like hitting a wall at 20mph for the rear car and a hefty shunt for the front car.
    Easy to see a pileup resulting and hefty casualties.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    People obviously aren't in the know that SNOTLIW's is THE new restaurant to be seen in....

    Ha. I wondered if anyone else had noticed that.
  • TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
    Yeah, UKIP to take the following seats.

    Clacton, Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point, another Northern Labour seat, and it pains me to say this, Rochester & Strood.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Financier said:

    Was taken to Wiltons once - most disappointing - it was worse than school dinners of years ago.

    school dinners or the restaurant 'School Dinners'?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    @Sunil you know which way you need to vote to achieve your outcome ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Clear out entries that sum to 100 imo.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    fpt - my reply to TSE's Cameron/Major comparison

    Cameron could never get the 43% who backed JM4PM including an extraordinary personal vote in his constituency. Let's compare their personal votes 1992 vs 2010.

    Major - 48662 (66%/52%)
    Cameron - 33973 (59%/43%)

    That's total votes followed by the % of the vote they got and the percentage of registered voters who supported them. Amidst all the fuss last week about the Tory fundraiser I thought a vital point was missed. Previous Tory PMs may have cultivated the rich or admired 'buccaneering businessmen' but they were always quite careful about their own image. The one nation tradition that sustained them up to Heath, followed by Thatcher who was always the disciplinarian school marm even if her policies made loads a'money possible and Major was the ordinary bloke from Brixton. That care seems to have been completely lost under Cameron and Osborne. Perhaps they thought if it was okay for New Labour to have an unapologetic appreciation of wealth, why not them? That carelessness could be their undoing.

    There's no doubt that John Major had an enormous personal vote in Huntingdon.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    lol @ Betfair sportsbook

    They're running an eastenders promotion;

    "Money Back if Ian Killed Lucy"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Looks like most of us expect Britain to be an ungovernable mess after May!
  • Looks like most of us expect Britain to be an ungovernable mess after May!

    Which is how I plan to become the country's first Directly Elected Dictator.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Oh My Days, Lord Ashcroft, has tweeted, that is something you might expect me to tweet, but is absolutely NSFW

    Although, I'd like to point out that's seagull and not a pigeon.

    http://tinyurl.com/nfmacco

    Brilliant - lol

    Oh My Days, Lord Ashcroft, has tweeted, that is something you might expect me to tweet, but is absolutely NSFW

    Although, I'd like to point out that's seagull and not a pigeon.

    http://tinyurl.com/nfmacco

    Brilliant - lol
    How long before the angry wimmin condemn him? Maybe Harriet will send the pink bus after him.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2015

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    I think it was a car at 90 rear ending a car at 70.
    That's still like hitting a wall at 20mph for the rear car and a hefty shunt for the front car.
    Easy to see a pileup resulting and hefty casualties.
    Happens all the time, yet casualties fatalities on the motorway are rare and usually caused by collision between car and HGV.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    George Roberts has two entries btw.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    edited February 2015
    Pong said:

    lol @ Betfair sportsbook

    They're running an eastenders promotion;

    "Money Back if Ian Killed Lucy"

    East London's real Albert Square (Stratford, London E15):

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Albert+Square,+London+E15/@51.5483858,0.0092779,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x47d8a7850e1775cf:0xc66089e6621ebc1d
  • "Snotliw's" - an interesting sounding restaurant depicted in the cartoon. I can't say I've ever visited this particular emporium.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    edited February 2015
    Labour lead in ELBOW so far this week up to 1.4% inc. last night's YG and TNS!

    Super-ELBOW for February so far, also 1.4% lead (cf. 1.1% for all of January).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    The invisible man reckons wipeout for Labour, George Galloway PM ?

    I'm going to 'fess up... I accidentally pressed submit too early... (was doing the smaller parties + the Tories and then using Labour as left overs)

    Fortunately I didn't fill in my name...so got to go again ;)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    I think it was a car at 90 rear ending a car at 70.
    That's still like hitting a wall at 20mph for the rear car and a hefty shunt for the front car.
    Easy to see a pileup resulting and hefty casualties.
    Absolutely. But I think the comparison was between hitting an oncoming car when both are going at 30 vs the 90/70 scenario
  • Pong said:

    lol @ Betfair sportsbook

    They're running an eastenders promotion;

    "Money Back if Ian Killed Lucy"

    The East London's real Albert Square (Stratford, London E15):

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Albert+Square,+London+E15/@51.5483858,0.0092779,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x47d8a7850e1775cf:0xc66089e6621ebc1d
    It doesn't look very square. You'd think being square would be a prerequisite for being called a square.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
    Yeah, UKIP to take the following seats.

    Clacton, Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point, another Northern Labour seat, and it pains me to say this, Rochester & Strood.
    You and MikeK seem to have the same prediction...
  • It's a hypothetical question, of course, but exactly what is the prescribed punishment Sunil can expect if he fails to achieve Crossover?

    If it involves boiling oil, shouldn't steps be taken soon to at least start warming it up a bit?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    edited February 2015
    People say this election is unpredictable but something along the lines of:
    [Lab 259] + 30 Con + 10 LD -20 SNP = 279 seats
    [Con 304] - 30 Lab + 10 LD -5 UKIP = 279 seats

    seems obvious at the moment. The SNP gains from Labour have the potential to be higher.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
    Yeah, UKIP to take the following seats.

    Clacton, Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point, another Northern Labour seat, and it pains me to say this, Rochester & Strood.
    You and MikeK seem to have the same prediction...
    Lolz, MikeK's been on the waccy baccy and said UKIP on for 102 seats and that by May, 100+ seats will be at evens.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
    Yeah, UKIP to take the following seats.

    Clacton, Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point, another Northern Labour seat, and it pains me to say this, Rochester & Strood.
    That's not 8. That's 9...??
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Barry Clark's vote share prediction for the SNP is utterly extraordinary :D

  • TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
    Yeah, UKIP to take the following seats.

    Clacton, Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point, another Northern Labour seat, and it pains me to say this, Rochester & Strood.
    That's not 8. That's 9...??
    Yeah, delete Great Yarmouth from my list.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
    Yeah, UKIP to take the following seats.

    Clacton, Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point, another Northern Labour seat, and it pains me to say this, Rochester & Strood.
    That's not 8. That's 9...??
    He's in denial about R&S...
  • Mike K = UKIP 604 seats LOL!

    :lol:
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    It seems like some people think the attempted seat reduction will be enacted before the election! 650 folks!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Labour lead in ELBOW so far this week up to 1.4% inc. last night's YG and TNS!

    Super-ELBOW for February so far, also 1.4% lead (cf. 1.1% for all of January).

    According to Lewis Baston, the reason for TNS's low Conservative score (and high UKIP score) is that they weight to the EU election results. Everyone else (apart from MORI) weights to the last general election.
  • Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
    Yeah, UKIP to take the following seats.

    Clacton, Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point, another Northern Labour seat, and it pains me to say this, Rochester & Strood.
    That's not 8. That's 9...??
    He's in denial about R&S...
    That's more like it.

    I will be directing my 8 week sabbatical in April and May to help the Tories retain seats like Pudsey
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    It seems like some people think the attempted seat reduction will be enacted before the election! 650 folks!

    Minus 19 for NI and Speaker, minus Plaid who we don't get to allocate
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    It seems like some people think the attempted seat reduction will be enacted before the election! 650 folks!

    Less 18 for NI, less 2 - 5 for PC & Respect & possibly NHA
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Removing the seven entries that total 100 (those who are forecasting share of vote instead of seats) and removing MikeL for obvious reasons, the average after 48 entries are:

    Con 290 (SPIN 282)
    Lab 275 (SPIN 278)
    LibDeb 28 (SPIN 28)
    UKIP 4 (SPIN 7)
    Green 1
    SNP 34 (SPIN 37)

    The wisdom of crowds?
  • Sean_F said:

    fpt - my reply to TSE's Cameron/Major comparison

    Cameron could never get the 43% who backed JM4PM including an extraordinary personal vote in his constituency. Let's compare their personal votes 1992 vs 2010.

    Major - 48662 (66%/52%)
    Cameron - 33973 (59%/43%)

    That's total votes followed by the % of the vote they got and the percentage of registered voters who supported them. Amidst all the fuss last week about the Tory fundraiser I thought a vital point was missed. Previous Tory PMs may have cultivated the rich or admired 'buccaneering businessmen' but they were always quite careful about their own image. The one nation tradition that sustained them up to Heath, followed by Thatcher who was always the disciplinarian school marm even if her policies made loads a'money possible and Major was the ordinary bloke from Brixton. That care seems to have been completely lost under Cameron and Osborne. Perhaps they thought if it was okay for New Labour to have an unapologetic appreciation of wealth, why not them? That carelessness could be their undoing.

    There's no doubt that John Major had an enormous personal vote in Huntingdon.

    True. But the comparison is also unfair as (a) the constituencies are different and (b) Major had already been PM for 1.5 years in 1992.

    Heath represented a break from the patrician past. Cameron's an attempt to prove that background no longer matters [obviously, to a subset of the left, it's his defining feature].
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited February 2015
    Excellent to see Sporting sponsoring a PB.com competition, good on them!
    They put some of those larger bookies and the largest betting exchange to shame. ..... Are you listening Paddy Power, SkyBet, Corals, Betfair and others one could mention, who never put their hands in their pockets, despite all the free advertising they receive on this site?
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    I think it was a car at 90 rear ending a car at 70.
    That's still like hitting a wall at 20mph for the rear car and a hefty shunt for the front car.
    Easy to see a pileup resulting and hefty casualties.
    Absolutely. But I think the comparison was between hitting an oncoming car when both are going at 30 vs the 90/70 scenario
    Both going at 30 in a head-on collision is like both cars hitting a wall at 60. Not much left of the car at those speeds...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Only two people are forecasting an overall majority (just) for the Tories and none for Labour.
  • Excellent to see Sporting sponsoring a PB.com competition, good on them!
    They put some of those larger bookies and the largest betting exchange to shame. ..... Are you listening Paddy Power, SkyBet, Corals, Betfair and others one could mention, who never put their hands in their pockets, despite all the free advertising they receive on this site?

    I think Betfair Sportsbook & Coral could probably do without the free advertising some of us have been giving them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    How accurate was the crowd wisdom for the last on of these we did ?
  • Sean_F said:

    Labour lead in ELBOW so far this week up to 1.4% inc. last night's YG and TNS!

    Super-ELBOW for February so far, also 1.4% lead (cf. 1.1% for all of January).

    According to Lewis Baston, the reason for TNS's low Conservative score (and high UKIP score) is that they weight to the EU election results. Everyone else (apart from MORI) weights to the last general election.
    Understood. Labour lead so far this week excluding TNS is 0.9% (and for February so far 1.2%).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    I think it was a car at 90 rear ending a car at 70.
    That's still like hitting a wall at 20mph for the rear car and a hefty shunt for the front car.
    Easy to see a pileup resulting and hefty casualties.
    Absolutely. But I think the comparison was between hitting an oncoming car when both are going at 30 vs the 90/70 scenario
    Both going at 30 in a head-on collision is like both cars hitting a wall at 60. Not much left of the car at those speeds...
    Which was the point! That it's not absolute speed, but relative speed that matters.

    I was just correcting @Sean_F misunderstanding...
  • Mr. Putney, agreed. If they do F1 spreads and I won (unlikely, unless my original entry gets axed [adds up to 650 rather than 630]) this contest I'd be able to spread bet on F1, which would be interesting.
  • *Anorak/Patrick/PfP/Pedants and Sunil*

    Well, I contacted La Marf and it seems yes, it was a mistake, but she likes Snotliw so much she isn't going to change it!

    Accidentally on purpose, I suppose.....
  • Sean_F said:

    Labour lead in ELBOW so far this week up to 1.4% inc. last night's YG and TNS!

    Super-ELBOW for February so far, also 1.4% lead (cf. 1.1% for all of January).

    According to Lewis Baston, the reason for TNS's low Conservative score (and high UKIP score) is that they weight to the EU election results. Everyone else (apart from MORI) weights to the last general election.
    If true that sounds totally crazy!
  • It's a hypothetical question, of course, but exactly what is the prescribed punishment Sunil can expect if he fails to achieve Crossover?

    If it involves boiling oil, shouldn't steps be taken soon to at least start warming it up a bit?

    Punishment pour moi?

    Shouldn't that read "exactly what is the prescribed punishment DAVE can expect if he fails to achieve Crossover?"?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I'm really struggling with this Pensioner Bonds thing, I must be stupid.

    How is the government taking out billions of pounds of loans at massively above market rate prudent financial planning and not shaking the magic money tree for free moeny but Labour, say, proposing increased spending funded by billions of pounds of loans at market rate financially irresponsible and reliant on the magic money tree?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited February 2015
    For those who made mistakes, e.g. for vote share not seats, enter your entry again and I'll delete the first one.
  • Pong said:

    lol @ Betfair sportsbook

    They're running an eastenders promotion;

    "Money Back if Ian Killed Lucy"

    The East London's real Albert Square (Stratford, London E15):

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Albert+Square,+London+E15/@51.5483858,0.0092779,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x47d8a7850e1775cf:0xc66089e6621ebc1d
    It doesn't look very square. You'd think being square would be a prerequisite for being called a square.
    Well, Piccadilly Circus doesn't have a Ringmaster :)
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    I think it was a car at 90 rear ending a car at 70.
    That's still like hitting a wall at 20mph for the rear car and a hefty shunt for the front car.
    Easy to see a pileup resulting and hefty casualties.
    Absolutely. But I think the comparison was between hitting an oncoming car when both are going at 30 vs the 90/70 scenario
    Both going at 30 in a head-on collision is like both cars hitting a wall at 60. Not much left of the car at those speeds...
    Which was the point! That it's not absolute speed, but relative speed that matters.

    I was just correcting @Sean_F misunderstanding...
    Fair enough... my mistake
This discussion has been closed.