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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After this week’s “pollercoaster” now YOU predict the elect

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited February 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After this week’s “pollercoaster” now YOU predict the election in PB’s Prize Competition


Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter seat totals for the main parties. The winner will be the person with the smallest overall error.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited February 2015
    Oooh, many thanks to Mike, Marf, Mark Hopkins and Spin for all of this
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Just a query on the name: ok to use pb.com username or should we use real names?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    I'm giving up PB for Lent (only kidding!)

    Nice cartoon, Marf :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    When is the closing date for the compy?
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    The pedant in me is looking at the restaurant name in the mirror Marf. I guess intended to be Wiltons. But actually Snotliw. Sounds about right.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Patrick said:

    The pedant in me is looking at the restaurant name in the mirror Marf. I guess intended to be Wiltons. But actually Snotliw. Sounds about right.

    Beat me to it!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Just a query on the name: ok to use pb.com username or should we use real names?

    In the past, people have used either
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Is the Speaker to be included as a Conservative? After all, I do want to get this precisely right.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Errm on the SNP my 4% is for NATIONAL polling level.

    Is it supposed to b Scotland only - there is a clear divide amongst entries on this.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    True, but motorways are safe as you don't hit oncoming drivers. (barring the odd confused OAP)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Morris Dancer it is then. Cheers, Mr. Eagles.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    SEATS not VOTE SHARE!!!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,194
    I was just about to submit my entry when I realised we have to estimate seats rather than vote share. Doh!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Oh Jesus I realise I've given a vote share prediction, not seats !
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    F1: in the least surprising news for some time, Bahrain has indicated it doesn't want Qatar to get a race. And as Bahrain has some serious clout, I would be somewhat surprised if Qatar ended up getting one.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    Pulpstar said:

    Oh Jesus I realise I've given a vote share prediction, not seats !

    That will be one small parliament :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    antifrank said:

    Is the Speaker to be included as a Conservative? After all, I do want to get this precisely right.

    Bercow didn't stand as a Conservative in 2010.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Oh cock, I made a typo in mine, SNP on 46, not 36
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    Anorak said:

    (barring the odd confused OAP)

    I'm sure Mike knows his Highway Code :)

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    Anorak said:

    Patrick said:

    The pedant in me is looking at the restaurant name in the mirror Marf. I guess intended to be Wiltons. But actually Snotliw. Sounds about right.

    Beat me to it!
    Anorak/Patrick

    I'll point it out to Her Marfness. She actually quite likes that kind of feedback - well, any feedback really, short of downright abuse - and will probably update with a corrected version later.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Some people seem to have gone with percentages.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    antifrank said:

    Is the Speaker to be included as a Conservative? After all, I do want to get this precisely right.

    I wouldn't have thought so. The current Speaker is Labour through and through.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    Redone it with a seat projection.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Average of total seats on 33 submissions so far is 602. Should be 630ish by my reckoning.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    At least half a dozen now. Still the LD average looks unaffected ;)

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    F1: apparently in-season helmet changes are to be banned.

    Nice to see the FIA being decisive on something that matters to almost no-one and does nothing to resolve the fundamental problems regarding the financial aspect of the sport.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Anorak said:

    Average of total seats on 33 submissions so far is 602. Should be 630ish by my reckoning.

    My first entry needs scrubbing.

    As does Richard's.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Interesting that so few have Labour as largest party.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    edited February 2015
    Mr. Anorak, ha, now you mention it I forget about Northern Ireland (sorry) *and* Plaid, so mine add up to 650. Ahem. Whoops.

    Edited extra bit: terribly sorry, Mr. Eagles, but if you could have mine axed as well, that'd be splendid.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Anorak said:

    Patrick said:

    The pedant in me is looking at the restaurant name in the mirror Marf. I guess intended to be Wiltons. But actually Snotliw. Sounds about right.

    Beat me to it!
    Anorak/Patrick

    I'll point it out to Her Marfness. She actually quite likes that kind of feedback - well, any feedback really, short of downright abuse - and will probably update with a corrected version later.
    Maybe it was intentional? Snotliw sounds satirical!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2015
    MarqueeMark said:

    Interesting that so few have Labour as largest party.....

    The Herd is Strong. Moooo.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited February 2015
    Oh My Days, Lord Ashcroft, has tweeted, that is something you might expect me to tweet, but is absolutely NSFW

    Although, I'd like to point out that's a seagull and not a pigeon

    http://tinyurl.com/nfmacco
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MarqueeMark said:

    Interesting that so few have Labour as largest party.....

    I think the chap with Labour on "0" isn't helping.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Interesting that the average predictions currently only add up to 560 seats...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Warren Swan, Richard Prew, Josh Dixon and Barry Clark need to redo their entries.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    I think it was a car at 90 rear ending a car at 70.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    People obviously aren't in the know that SNOTLIW's is THE new restaurant to be seen in....
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2015
    Great competition mike. Cudos to Marf & SPIN for putting up prizes, also.

    I'm going to have a think on this before submitting. My initial hunch is to go for whatever the PB average consensus is;

    - 14 Con Seats
    + 16 Lab Seats
    - 2 UKIP Seats

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Put your money on Villa to be relegated

    Aston Villa fan David Cameron backs Tim Sherwood appointment

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/18/david-cameron-backs-tim-sherwood-aston-villa
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Mo Farah labels fellow British runner Andy Vernon 'an embarrassment'... and says Taylor Swift would run faster in Twitter spat

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/othersports/article-2957631/Mo-Farah-labels-fellow-British-runner-Andy-Vernon-embarrassment-Twitter-spat.html

    Now this is what you call a good twitter spat - lol
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put your money on Villa to be relegated

    Aston Villa fan David Cameron backs Tim Sherwood appointment

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/18/david-cameron-backs-tim-sherwood-aston-villa

    What money, it's all tied up on the GE :P !
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Was taken to Wiltons once - most disappointing - it was worse than school dinners of years ago.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited February 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh My Days, Lord Ashcroft, has tweeted, that is something you might expect me to tweet, but is absolutely NSFW

    Although, I'd like to point out that's seagull and not a pigeon.

    http://tinyurl.com/nfmacco

    Brilliant - lol
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    fpt - my reply to TSE's Cameron/Major comparison

    Cameron could never get the 43% who backed JM4PM including an extraordinary personal vote in his constituency. Let's compare their personal votes 1992 vs 2010.

    Major - 48662 (66%/52%)
    Cameron - 33973 (59%/43%)

    That's total votes followed by the % of the vote they got and the percentage of registered voters who supported them. Amidst all the fuss last week about the Tory fundraiser I thought a vital point was missed. Previous Tory PMs may have cultivated the rich or admired 'buccaneering businessmen' but they were always quite careful about their own image. The one nation tradition that sustained them up to Heath, followed by Thatcher who was always the disciplinarian school marm even if her policies made loads a'money possible and Major was the ordinary bloke from Brixton. That care seems to have been completely lost under Cameron and Osborne. Perhaps they thought if it was okay for New Labour to have an unapologetic appreciation of wealth, why not them? That carelessness could be their undoing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    The invisible man reckons wipeout for Labour, George Galloway PM ?
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    I think it was a car at 90 rear ending a car at 70.
    That's still like hitting a wall at 20mph for the rear car and a hefty shunt for the front car.
    Easy to see a pileup resulting and hefty casualties.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    MarqueeMark said:

    People obviously aren't in the know that SNOTLIW's is THE new restaurant to be seen in....

    Ha. I wondered if anyone else had noticed that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
    Yeah, UKIP to take the following seats.

    Clacton, Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point, another Northern Labour seat, and it pains me to say this, Rochester & Strood.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Financier said:

    Was taken to Wiltons once - most disappointing - it was worse than school dinners of years ago.

    school dinners or the restaurant 'School Dinners'?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    @Sunil you know which way you need to vote to achieve your outcome ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Clear out entries that sum to 100 imo.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    FrankBooth said:

    fpt - my reply to TSE's Cameron/Major comparison

    Cameron could never get the 43% who backed JM4PM including an extraordinary personal vote in his constituency. Let's compare their personal votes 1992 vs 2010.

    Major - 48662 (66%/52%)
    Cameron - 33973 (59%/43%)

    That's total votes followed by the % of the vote they got and the percentage of registered voters who supported them. Amidst all the fuss last week about the Tory fundraiser I thought a vital point was missed. Previous Tory PMs may have cultivated the rich or admired 'buccaneering businessmen' but they were always quite careful about their own image. The one nation tradition that sustained them up to Heath, followed by Thatcher who was always the disciplinarian school marm even if her policies made loads a'money possible and Major was the ordinary bloke from Brixton. That care seems to have been completely lost under Cameron and Osborne. Perhaps they thought if it was okay for New Labour to have an unapologetic appreciation of wealth, why not them? That carelessness could be their undoing.

    There's no doubt that John Major had an enormous personal vote in Huntingdon.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    lol @ Betfair sportsbook

    They're running an eastenders promotion;

    "Money Back if Ian Killed Lucy"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Looks like most of us expect Britain to be an ungovernable mess after May!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    MarqueeMark said:

    Looks like most of us expect Britain to be an ungovernable mess after May!

    Which is how I plan to become the country's first Directly Elected Dictator.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Tykejohnno said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh My Days, Lord Ashcroft, has tweeted, that is something you might expect me to tweet, but is absolutely NSFW

    Although, I'd like to point out that's seagull and not a pigeon.

    http://tinyurl.com/nfmacco

    Brilliant - lol
    Tykejohnno said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh My Days, Lord Ashcroft, has tweeted, that is something you might expect me to tweet, but is absolutely NSFW

    Although, I'd like to point out that's seagull and not a pigeon.

    http://tinyurl.com/nfmacco

    Brilliant - lol
    How long before the angry wimmin condemn him? Maybe Harriet will send the pink bus after him.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2015
    DaemonBarber said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    I think it was a car at 90 rear ending a car at 70.
    That's still like hitting a wall at 20mph for the rear car and a hefty shunt for the front car.
    Easy to see a pileup resulting and hefty casualties.
    Happens all the time, yet casualties fatalities on the motorway are rare and usually caused by collision between car and HGV.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    George Roberts has two entries btw.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    edited February 2015
    Pong said:

    lol @ Betfair sportsbook

    They're running an eastenders promotion;

    "Money Back if Ian Killed Lucy"

    East London's real Albert Square (Stratford, London E15):

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Albert+Square,+London+E15/@51.5483858,0.0092779,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x47d8a7850e1775cf:0xc66089e6621ebc1d
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    "Snotliw's" - an interesting sounding restaurant depicted in the cartoon. I can't say I've ever visited this particular emporium.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    edited February 2015
    Labour lead in ELBOW so far this week up to 1.4% inc. last night's YG and TNS!

    Super-ELBOW for February so far, also 1.4% lead (cf. 1.1% for all of January).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    The invisible man reckons wipeout for Labour, George Galloway PM ?

    I'm going to 'fess up... I accidentally pressed submit too early... (was doing the smaller parties + the Tories and then using Labour as left overs)

    Fortunately I didn't fill in my name...so got to go again ;)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DaemonBarber said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    I think it was a car at 90 rear ending a car at 70.
    That's still like hitting a wall at 20mph for the rear car and a hefty shunt for the front car.
    Easy to see a pileup resulting and hefty casualties.
    Absolutely. But I think the comparison was between hitting an oncoming car when both are going at 30 vs the 90/70 scenario
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pong said:

    lol @ Betfair sportsbook

    They're running an eastenders promotion;

    "Money Back if Ian Killed Lucy"

    The East London's real Albert Square (Stratford, London E15):

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Albert+Square,+London+E15/@51.5483858,0.0092779,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x47d8a7850e1775cf:0xc66089e6621ebc1d
    It doesn't look very square. You'd think being square would be a prerequisite for being called a square.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
    Yeah, UKIP to take the following seats.

    Clacton, Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point, another Northern Labour seat, and it pains me to say this, Rochester & Strood.
    You and MikeK seem to have the same prediction...
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    It's a hypothetical question, of course, but exactly what is the prescribed punishment Sunil can expect if he fails to achieve Crossover?

    If it involves boiling oil, shouldn't steps be taken soon to at least start warming it up a bit?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited February 2015
    People say this election is unpredictable but something along the lines of:
    [Lab 259] + 30 Con + 10 LD -20 SNP = 279 seats
    [Con 304] - 30 Lab + 10 LD -5 UKIP = 279 seats

    seems obvious at the moment. The SNP gains from Labour have the potential to be higher.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
    Yeah, UKIP to take the following seats.

    Clacton, Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point, another Northern Labour seat, and it pains me to say this, Rochester & Strood.
    You and MikeK seem to have the same prediction...
    Lolz, MikeK's been on the waccy baccy and said UKIP on for 102 seats and that by May, 100+ seats will be at evens.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
    Yeah, UKIP to take the following seats.

    Clacton, Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point, another Northern Labour seat, and it pains me to say this, Rochester & Strood.
    That's not 8. That's 9...??
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Barry Clark's vote share prediction for the SNP is utterly extraordinary :D

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
    Yeah, UKIP to take the following seats.

    Clacton, Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point, another Northern Labour seat, and it pains me to say this, Rochester & Strood.
    That's not 8. That's 9...??
    Yeah, delete Great Yarmouth from my list.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
    Yeah, UKIP to take the following seats.

    Clacton, Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point, another Northern Labour seat, and it pains me to say this, Rochester & Strood.
    That's not 8. That's 9...??
    He's in denial about R&S...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    Mike K = UKIP 604 seats LOL!

    :lol:
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,194
    It seems like some people think the attempted seat reduction will be enacted before the election! 650 folks!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Labour lead in ELBOW so far this week up to 1.4% inc. last night's YG and TNS!

    Super-ELBOW for February so far, also 1.4% lead (cf. 1.1% for all of January).

    According to Lewis Baston, the reason for TNS's low Conservative score (and high UKIP score) is that they weight to the EU election results. Everyone else (apart from MORI) weights to the last general election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Charles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar and richard prew have mucked up the average by failing to read the question.

    Indeed we have, any chance to redo it :/ ?

    Unless there is an imminent Plaid Cymru/Respect surge I'm not winning.
    I'll drop Mark an email and he can delete your entry first entry

    In the meantime if you submit your correct entry now as Pulpstar Final, that should fix it
    There seems to be a typo on yours too - Ukip "8" ?!?
    Yeah, UKIP to take the following seats.

    Clacton, Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point, another Northern Labour seat, and it pains me to say this, Rochester & Strood.
    That's not 8. That's 9...??
    He's in denial about R&S...
    That's more like it.

    I will be directing my 8 week sabbatical in April and May to help the Tories retain seats like Pudsey
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SandyRentool said:

    It seems like some people think the attempted seat reduction will be enacted before the election! 650 folks!

    Minus 19 for NI and Speaker, minus Plaid who we don't get to allocate
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    SandyRentool said:

    It seems like some people think the attempted seat reduction will be enacted before the election! 650 folks!

    Less 18 for NI, less 2 - 5 for PC & Respect & possibly NHA
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    Removing the seven entries that total 100 (those who are forecasting share of vote instead of seats) and removing MikeL for obvious reasons, the average after 48 entries are:

    Con 290 (SPIN 282)
    Lab 275 (SPIN 278)
    LibDeb 28 (SPIN 28)
    UKIP 4 (SPIN 7)
    Green 1
    SNP 34 (SPIN 37)

    The wisdom of crowds?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sean_F said:

    FrankBooth said:

    fpt - my reply to TSE's Cameron/Major comparison

    Cameron could never get the 43% who backed JM4PM including an extraordinary personal vote in his constituency. Let's compare their personal votes 1992 vs 2010.

    Major - 48662 (66%/52%)
    Cameron - 33973 (59%/43%)

    That's total votes followed by the % of the vote they got and the percentage of registered voters who supported them. Amidst all the fuss last week about the Tory fundraiser I thought a vital point was missed. Previous Tory PMs may have cultivated the rich or admired 'buccaneering businessmen' but they were always quite careful about their own image. The one nation tradition that sustained them up to Heath, followed by Thatcher who was always the disciplinarian school marm even if her policies made loads a'money possible and Major was the ordinary bloke from Brixton. That care seems to have been completely lost under Cameron and Osborne. Perhaps they thought if it was okay for New Labour to have an unapologetic appreciation of wealth, why not them? That carelessness could be their undoing.

    There's no doubt that John Major had an enormous personal vote in Huntingdon.

    True. But the comparison is also unfair as (a) the constituencies are different and (b) Major had already been PM for 1.5 years in 1992.

    Heath represented a break from the patrician past. Cameron's an attempt to prove that background no longer matters [obviously, to a subset of the left, it's his defining feature].
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited February 2015
    Excellent to see Sporting sponsoring a PB.com competition, good on them!
    They put some of those larger bookies and the largest betting exchange to shame. ..... Are you listening Paddy Power, SkyBet, Corals, Betfair and others one could mention, who never put their hands in their pockets, despite all the free advertising they receive on this site?
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Charles said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    I think it was a car at 90 rear ending a car at 70.
    That's still like hitting a wall at 20mph for the rear car and a hefty shunt for the front car.
    Easy to see a pileup resulting and hefty casualties.
    Absolutely. But I think the comparison was between hitting an oncoming car when both are going at 30 vs the 90/70 scenario
    Both going at 30 in a head-on collision is like both cars hitting a wall at 60. Not much left of the car at those speeds...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    Only two people are forecasting an overall majority (just) for the Tories and none for Labour.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    peter_from_putney said:

    Excellent to see Sporting sponsoring a PB.com competition, good on them!
    They put some of those larger bookies and the largest betting exchange to shame. ..... Are you listening Paddy Power, SkyBet, Corals, Betfair and others one could mention, who never put their hands in their pockets, despite all the free advertising they receive on this site?

    I think Betfair Sportsbook & Coral could probably do without the free advertising some of us have been giving them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    How accurate was the crowd wisdom for the last on of these we did ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    Sean_F said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Labour lead in ELBOW so far this week up to 1.4% inc. last night's YG and TNS!

    Super-ELBOW for February so far, also 1.4% lead (cf. 1.1% for all of January).

    According to Lewis Baston, the reason for TNS's low Conservative score (and high UKIP score) is that they weight to the EU election results. Everyone else (apart from MORI) weights to the last general election.
    Understood. Labour lead so far this week excluding TNS is 0.9% (and for February so far 1.2%).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DaemonBarber said:

    Charles said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    I think it was a car at 90 rear ending a car at 70.
    That's still like hitting a wall at 20mph for the rear car and a hefty shunt for the front car.
    Easy to see a pileup resulting and hefty casualties.
    Absolutely. But I think the comparison was between hitting an oncoming car when both are going at 30 vs the 90/70 scenario
    Both going at 30 in a head-on collision is like both cars hitting a wall at 60. Not much left of the car at those speeds...
    Which was the point! That it's not absolute speed, but relative speed that matters.

    I was just correcting @Sean_F misunderstanding...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Putney, agreed. If they do F1 spreads and I won (unlikely, unless my original entry gets axed [adds up to 650 rather than 630]) this contest I'd be able to spread bet on F1, which would be interesting.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    *Anorak/Patrick/PfP/Pedants and Sunil*

    Well, I contacted La Marf and it seems yes, it was a mistake, but she likes Snotliw so much she isn't going to change it!

    Accidentally on purpose, I suppose.....
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Sean_F said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Labour lead in ELBOW so far this week up to 1.4% inc. last night's YG and TNS!

    Super-ELBOW for February so far, also 1.4% lead (cf. 1.1% for all of January).

    According to Lewis Baston, the reason for TNS's low Conservative score (and high UKIP score) is that they weight to the EU election results. Everyone else (apart from MORI) weights to the last general election.
    If true that sounds totally crazy!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    It's a hypothetical question, of course, but exactly what is the prescribed punishment Sunil can expect if he fails to achieve Crossover?

    If it involves boiling oil, shouldn't steps be taken soon to at least start warming it up a bit?

    Punishment pour moi?

    Shouldn't that read "exactly what is the prescribed punishment DAVE can expect if he fails to achieve Crossover?"?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I'm really struggling with this Pensioner Bonds thing, I must be stupid.

    How is the government taking out billions of pounds of loans at massively above market rate prudent financial planning and not shaking the magic money tree for free moeny but Labour, say, proposing increased spending funded by billions of pounds of loans at market rate financially irresponsible and reliant on the magic money tree?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited February 2015
    For those who made mistakes, e.g. for vote share not seats, enter your entry again and I'll delete the first one.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pong said:

    lol @ Betfair sportsbook

    They're running an eastenders promotion;

    "Money Back if Ian Killed Lucy"

    The East London's real Albert Square (Stratford, London E15):

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Albert+Square,+London+E15/@51.5483858,0.0092779,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x47d8a7850e1775cf:0xc66089e6621ebc1d
    It doesn't look very square. You'd think being square would be a prerequisite for being called a square.
    Well, Piccadilly Circus doesn't have a Ringmaster :)
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Charles said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    Charles said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, a car driving at 90 miles an hour into an oncoming car driving at 70 miles an hour is going to kill both drivers.

    I think it was a car at 90 rear ending a car at 70.
    That's still like hitting a wall at 20mph for the rear car and a hefty shunt for the front car.
    Easy to see a pileup resulting and hefty casualties.
    Absolutely. But I think the comparison was between hitting an oncoming car when both are going at 30 vs the 90/70 scenario
    Both going at 30 in a head-on collision is like both cars hitting a wall at 60. Not much left of the car at those speeds...
    Which was the point! That it's not absolute speed, but relative speed that matters.

    I was just correcting @Sean_F misunderstanding...
    Fair enough... my mistake
This discussion has been closed.