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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After this week’s “pollercoaster” now YOU predict the elect

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  • Pulpstar said:

    How accurate was the crowd wisdom for the last on of these we did ?

    On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    (I think the latter was skewed by over optimistic Nats)

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/addprediction.php
  • Mr. Hopkins, thanks, appreciate it.
  • Pong said:

    lol @ Betfair sportsbook

    They're running an eastenders promotion;

    "Money Back if Ian Killed Lucy"

    The East London's real Albert Square (Stratford, London E15):

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Albert+Square,+London+E15/@51.5483858,0.0092779,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x47d8a7850e1775cf:0xc66089e6621ebc1d
    It doesn't look very square. You'd think being square would be a prerequisite for being called a square.
    Well, Piccadilly Circus doesn't have a Ringmaster :)
    And the street name for fellatio, doesn't have any in blowing in it.
  • *Anorak/Patrick/PfP/Pedants and Sunil*

    Well, I contacted La Marf and it seems yes, it was a mistake, but she likes Snotliw so much she isn't going to change it!

    Accidentally on purpose, I suppose.....

    Snotliw strikes me as being a splendid name for a swanky joint. Good for Marf.
  • It's a hypothetical question, of course, but exactly what is the prescribed punishment Sunil can expect if he fails to achieve Crossover?

    If it involves boiling oil, shouldn't steps be taken soon to at least start warming it up a bit?

    Punishment pour moi?

    Shouldn't that read "exactly what is the prescribed punishment DAVE can expect if he fails to achieve Crossover?"?
    Well, that's what I would expect, Sunil.

    But then I'm a reasonable person. My reading of PB over the past few months suggests to me that some here are holding you personally responsible.

    Who ever said life was fair, young Sunil?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,147

    Pong said:

    lol @ Betfair sportsbook

    They're running an eastenders promotion;

    "Money Back if Ian Killed Lucy"

    The East London's real Albert Square (Stratford, London E15):

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Albert+Square,+London+E15/@51.5483858,0.0092779,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x47d8a7850e1775cf:0xc66089e6621ebc1d
    It doesn't look very square. You'd think being square would be a prerequisite for being called a square.
    Well, Piccadilly Circus doesn't have a Ringmaster :)
    Routemasters, rather than Ringmasters!
  • Pong said:

    lol @ Betfair sportsbook

    They're running an eastenders promotion;

    "Money Back if Ian Killed Lucy"

    The East London's real Albert Square (Stratford, London E15):

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Albert+Square,+London+E15/@51.5483858,0.0092779,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x47d8a7850e1775cf:0xc66089e6621ebc1d
    It doesn't look very square. You'd think being square would be a prerequisite for being called a square.
    Well, Piccadilly Circus doesn't have a Ringmaster :)
    Circus is Latin for circle...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950

    Pulpstar said:

    How accurate was the crowd wisdom for the last on of these we did ?

    On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    (I think the latter was skewed by over optimistic Nats)

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/addprediction.php
    I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
  • If we're all honest and set the partisan desire aside, its highly unlikely that anyone is winning a majority. So its a question of who is the largest party and the internal maths in the commons. There are more barriers to the Tories forming a workable coalition than Labour but all things are possible.

    Betting question - anyone offering odds that Cameron Clegg and Milliband will all no longer be party leaders by the end of the year? Because I think Clegg is losing in Hallam, whichever of Cameron or Milliband isn't PM in June won't stay on as leader, and there is a decent chance both of a 2nd election and a change of maths swapping things around after it.

    Its not impossible that by December Boris is PM, Farron leads whats left of the LibDems, and Umunna leads Labour...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    Morris Dancer,

    Precisely what sort of Government do you propose we should adopt under your result ?
  • LibDem lead over the Greens so far this week 1.3% (same as last week). For February so far this lead is 1.1%, compared to 0.8% for January as a whole.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,656
    edited February 2015
    Well looking at the entries so far there is only one line showing a party with an overall majority, UKIP with 604.

    Well down the second page and no one has Lab or Con 325 or over.

    Edit, just seen Timmo with a 328. Ignore me no glasses on, can't see!
  • Pulpstar said:

    @Sunil you know which way you need to vote to achieve your outcome ;)

    TSE will vote Tory if I vote Tory you see...

    That's why I'm torn :)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,340
    Alistair said:

    I'm really struggling with this Pensioner Bonds thing, I must be stupid.

    How is the government taking out billions of pounds of loans at massively above market rate prudent financial planning and not shaking the magic money tree for free moeny but Labour, say, proposing increased spending funded by billions of pounds of loans at market rate financially irresponsible and reliant on the magic money tree?

    Nothing. The pensioner bonds are a stupid vote buying scheme.
  • Mr. Pulpstar, obviously, EHV would be optimal.

    However, I think it's be down to the Lib Dems. If they went for a second Con-Lib Coalition, we'd get that. If they preferred to lick their wounds then it'd be, er, interesting. It'd be an incredibly messy result.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How accurate was the crowd wisdom for the last on of these we did ?

    On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    (I think the latter was skewed by over optimistic Nats)

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/addprediction.php
    I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
    Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
  • The Crowd seems to be chocked full of PB Tories, so far!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited February 2015
    philiph said:

    Well looking at the entries so far there is only one line showing a party with an overall majority, UKIP with 604.

    Well down the second page and no one has Lab or Con 325 or over.

    Edit, just seen Timmo with a 328. Ignore me no glasses on, can't see!


    On the Search page: if you click on any of the column headings, e.g. Cons, Lab, then it will order by that column, so it's easy to see the range of guesses for that party.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How accurate was the crowd wisdom for the last on of these we did ?

    On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    (I think the latter was skewed by over optimistic Nats)

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/addprediction.php
    I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
    Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How accurate was the crowd wisdom for the last on of these we did ?

    On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    (I think the latter was skewed by over optimistic Nats)

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/addprediction.php
    I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
    Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
    Hail Mary, I think your 40 is a much more realistic figure as shirley the polls must tighten as the GE comes closer - and the swing is so important in Scotland because of the massive majorities that have to be over turned.
  • UKIP candidate for Barking selected: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-IZYOJCUAAK7sU.png:large
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,451

    Sean_F said:

    Labour lead in ELBOW so far this week up to 1.4% inc. last night's YG and TNS!

    Super-ELBOW for February so far, also 1.4% lead (cf. 1.1% for all of January).

    According to Lewis Baston, the reason for TNS's low Conservative score (and high UKIP score) is that they weight to the EU election results. Everyone else (apart from MORI) weights to the last general election.
    If true that sounds totally crazy!
    I suppose the logic is that this was the last national election, but I disagree with the idea.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    If we're all honest and set the partisan desire aside, its highly unlikely that anyone is winning a majority. So its a question of who is the largest party and the internal maths in the commons. There are more barriers to the Tories forming a workable coalition than Labour but all things are possible.

    Betting question - anyone offering odds that Cameron Clegg and Milliband will all no longer be party leaders by the end of the year? Because I think Clegg is losing in Hallam, whichever of Cameron or Milliband isn't PM in June won't stay on as leader, and there is a decent chance both of a 2nd election and a change of maths swapping things around after it.

    Its not impossible that by December Boris is PM, Farron leads whats left of the LibDems, and Umunna leads Labour...

    And Carswell leads UKIP perhaps?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    The Crowd seems to be chocked full of PB Tories, so far!

    My entry reflects my prejudices and my book along with some attempted anti-prejudice and "Spurs" book bet.

    If I wasn't betting on the GE my entry could be different.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    Incidentally anyone predicting 45 for the SNP should get a lolly if they get that right.
  • Great competition OGH, - many thanks to all involved.

    Given the present state of polling however, I fear even a remotely accurate prediction may be beyond the wisdom of the PB crowd : ) – good luck to all taking part.
  • Corrected it for you :)
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,656

    philiph said:

    Well looking at the entries so far there is only one line showing a party with an overall majority, UKIP with 604.

    Well down the second page and no one has Lab or Con 325 or over.

    Edit, just seen Timmo with a 328. Ignore me no glasses on, can't see!


    On the Search page: if you click on any of the column headings, e.g. Cons, Lab, then it will order by that column, so it's easy to see the range of guesses for that party.

    Thanks
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    If the SNP end up with 40 then I think there is a decent chance of one or two Labour gains in Scotland...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I do hope the Archbishop's e mail account is on fire.. From what I have heard, churchgoes are prerty angry and feel that the church should stick to pastoral matters and keep out of politics.

    Interesting to hear them try to defend it as a non partisan document when of course anyone can see it isn't. I thought bishops were supposed to be truthful.
  • Might I suggest that future polls include a "Political Allegiance, if any" question?
  • On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    If you went for the wisdom of a particular PBer rather than the crowd, you'd have been within 0.38% on the Yes value and 0.13% on the turnout. Modesty forbids me to specify which particular PBer, of course!
  • fpt - my reply to TSE's Cameron/Major comparison

    Cameron could never get the 43% who backed JM4PM including an extraordinary personal vote in his constituency. Let's compare their personal votes 1992 vs 2010.

    Major - 48662 (66%/52%)
    Cameron - 33973 (59%/43%)

    That's total votes followed by the % of the vote they got and the percentage of registered voters who supported them. Amidst all the fuss last week about the Tory fundraiser I thought a vital point was missed. Previous Tory PMs may have cultivated the rich or admired 'buccaneering businessmen' but they were always quite careful about their own image. The one nation tradition that sustained them up to Heath, followed by Thatcher who was always the disciplinarian school marm even if her policies made loads a'money possible and Major was the ordinary bloke from Brixton. That care seems to have been completely lost under Cameron and Osborne. Perhaps they thought if it was okay for New Labour to have an unapologetic appreciation of wealth, why not them? That carelessness could be their undoing.

    Huntingdon in 1992 was a massively oversized constituency with an electorate of 93,000. nearly 20,000 votes were shunted off into the new NW Cambs seat for 1997. Witney in 2010 had 78k electors
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

    One of their ruled out blocs is wrong imo:

    We exclude Labour partnering with the Conservatives, UKIP, DUP or Sinn Fein; we exclude Conservatives partnering with Labour, SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru, SDLP or Sinn Fein.
  • Mr. Root, not a churchist, but if I were, and suspected the document were not neutral, then I'd probably be almost as pissed off over the bullshitting as the initial meddlesome intervention. Priests interfering in elections is not a welcome development.

    Seems a bit odd to not have a summary for a 52 page document, but there we are.

    Mr. Price, interesting suggestion. Would you advocate it being on party lines, or a more liberal/authoritarian (social) and socialist/capitalist sort of lines?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    Might I suggest that future polls include a "Political Allegiance, if any" question?

    "Current Book" :) ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How accurate was the crowd wisdom for the last on of these we did ?

    On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    (I think the latter was skewed by over optimistic Nats)

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/addprediction.php
    I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
    Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How accurate was the crowd wisdom for the last on of these we did ?

    On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    (I think the latter was skewed by over optimistic Nats)

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/addprediction.php
    I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
    Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
    Hail Mary, I think your 40 is a much more realistic figure as shirley the polls must tighten as the GE comes closer - and the swing is so important in Scotland because of the massive majorities that have to be over turned.
    Of course, if the polls don't tighten then 52 might be an underestimate!
  • On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    If you went for the wisdom of a particular PBer rather than the crowd, you'd have been within 0.38% on the Yes value and 0.13% on the turnout. Modesty forbids me to specify which particular PBer, of course!
    Peter from Putney?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,340
    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

    One of their ruled out blocs is wrong imo:

    We exclude Labour partnering with the Conservatives, UKIP, DUP or Sinn Fein; we exclude Conservatives partnering with Labour, SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru, SDLP or Sinn Fein.

    You bolded the wrong NI party, Ed opened up talks with Sinn Fein last time it came up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    edited February 2015
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How accurate was the crowd wisdom for the last on of these we did ?

    On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    (I think the latter was skewed by over optimistic Nats)

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/addprediction.php
    I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
    Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How accurate was the crowd wisdom for the last on of these we did ?

    On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    (I think the latter was skewed by over optimistic Nats)

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/addprediction.php
    I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
    Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
    Hail Mary, I think your 40 is a much more realistic figure as shirley the polls must tighten as the GE comes closer - and the swing is so important in Scotland because of the massive majorities that have to be over turned.
    Of course, if the polls don't tighten then 52 might be an underestimate!
    Almost unbelievably, Carmichael is a gonner according to the http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

    Murphy's seat the safest (Non SNP) in Scotland.
  • On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    If you went for the wisdom of a particular PBer rather than the crowd, you'd have been within 0.38% on the Yes value and 0.13% on the turnout. Modesty forbids me to specify which particular PBer, of course!
    Peter from Putney?
    It was Conor Ryan I felt sorry for.

    He was 0.02% out on the Yes vote, and 0.06% out on turnout

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/results.php?b=0&s_Name=&o_lcl=C_1
  • MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

    One of their ruled out blocs is wrong imo:

    We exclude Labour partnering with the Conservatives, UKIP, DUP or Sinn Fein; we exclude Conservatives partnering with Labour, SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru, SDLP or Sinn Fein.

    You bolded the wrong NI party, Ed opened up talks with Sinn Fein last time it came up.
    Sinn Fein would never sit in Westminster.
  • PB Euro 2014 entries included a "who would you support in a General Election?" question:

    https://user.nojam.com/pid/50/live/averagebygeparty.php
  • Mr. Price, did we get the 2014 competition results yet?
  • PB Euro 2014 entries included a "who would you support in a General Election?" question:

    https://user.nojam.com/pid/50/live/averagebygeparty.php

    I'll mention it to the powers that be.

    As I understand it, this will be a regular thing between now and election day
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How accurate was the crowd wisdom for the last on of these we did ?

    On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    (I think the latter was skewed by over optimistic Nats)

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/addprediction.php
    I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
    Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How accurate was the crowd wisdom for the last on of these we did ?

    On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    (I think the latter was skewed by over optimistic Nats)

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/addprediction.php
    I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
    Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
    Hail Mary, I think your 40 is a much more realistic figure as shirley the polls must tighten as the GE comes closer - and the swing is so important in Scotland because of the massive majorities that have to be over turned.
    Of course, if the polls don't tighten then 52 might be an underestimate!
    Almost unbelievably, Carmichael is a gonner according to the http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

    Murphy's seat the safest (Non SNP) in Scotland.
    If you want unbelivable then you want this link, no idea where it comes from or what analysis backs it up but just look at some of those SNP vote percentage figures: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KQxY1NQVHUPR4ezte23z_zz3LscUrDY21NLQMubeK6w/pubhtml

    Big lols.
  • Mr. Eagles, huzzah!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    Scott_P said:

    @rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie

    Wow, Milliband has just turned a winning hand into a losing hand. He's discaraded the pair from a full house to try and draw 4 of a kind. What a maroon.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    edited February 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie

    Interesting move. If you had kept up you would know that Miliband hasn't avoided tax, as Rod Crosby and others have explained in great details on here numerous times, most of which has fallen on deaf ears.

    One to watch.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,937
    Where's the best place online to bet on Rochester and Strood. Anyone know?
  • Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie

    Wow, Milliband has just turned a winning hand into a losing hand. He's discaraded the pair from a full house to try and draw 4 of a kind. What a maroon.
    Not so sure about that.

    And have you tried Holdem? Much better game than Draw!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited February 2015

    Scott_P said:

    @rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie

    Interesting move. If you had kept up you would know that Miliband hasn't avoided tax, as Rod Crosby and others have explained in great details on here numerous times, most of which has fallen on deaf ears.

    One to watch.
    Sure, but how many voters know that?

    I reckon about the same number as who know that Stanley Fink is not dodgy.

    (In any event, Miliband has reduced the size of his mother's estate and thereby reduced a potential future liability. He's not avoided tax. Yet.)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Miliband hasn't avoided tax

    The Starbucks defence

    It is indeed one to watch
  • Mr. Price, did we get the 2014 competition results yet?

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/30/pb-euro-election-comptetion-winner/

    The PB Tories did best overall though, to no-one's surprise.
  • Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How accurate was the crowd wisdom for the last on of these we did ?

    On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    (I think the latter was skewed by over optimistic Nats)

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/addprediction.php
    I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
    Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How accurate was the crowd wisdom for the last on of these we did ?

    On the Indyref, PB predicted the turnout would be 83.11% it was in fact 84.59%

    On the Yes vote, PB predicted Yes would get 47.33%, Yes actually got 44.7%

    (I think the latter was skewed by over optimistic Nats)

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/addprediction.php
    I wasn't so much as optimistic as deciding that the realistic figure of 45% which I had predicted was too crowded and so went with a hail mary of a majority Yes to try and win the comp.
    Is SNP 52 your actual prediction or a "Hail Mary" ?
    Hail Mary, I think your 40 is a much more realistic figure as shirley the polls must tighten as the GE comes closer - and the swing is so important in Scotland because of the massive majorities that have to be over turned.
    Of course, if the polls don't tighten then 52 might be an underestimate!
    Almost unbelievably, Carmichael is a gonner according to the http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

    Murphy's seat the safest (Non SNP) in Scotland.
    If you want unbelivable then you want this link, no idea where it comes from or what analysis backs it up but just look at some of those SNP vote percentage figures: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KQxY1NQVHUPR4ezte23z_zz3LscUrDY21NLQMubeK6w/pubhtml

    Big lols.
    Greens win Bury St Edmunds?!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    edited February 2015
    Roger said:

    Where's the best place online to bet on Rochester and Strood. Anyone know?

    Which side of the bet do you want ?

    @Isam Will give you best price on the Conservatives, head through vanilla messaging to get to him. He seems to be banned on here (right now...) but I can confirm he pays up.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,937
    Scott&PasteLtd

    Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie

    Shouldn't IDS be worried someone might ask him about his degree from Perugia University?
  • PB Euro 2014 entries included a "who would you support in a General Election?" question:

    https://user.nojam.com/pid/50/live/averagebygeparty.php

    I'll mention it to the powers that be.

    As I understand it, this will be a regular thing between now and election day
    I'll make the same entry every time and collect a monster payout and a wallful of cartoons, then :-)
  • Mr. Price, cheers (I did incredibly badly).

    Wasn't there also a general 2014 predictions competition thingummyjig? Or am I raving drunkard whose brandy-fuelled misrememberings bear no relation to reality?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,340
    Scott_P said:

    @rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie

    What a moron. He should have just kept his head down and now he has brought his tax affairs into the spotlight. Whether or not he made tax savings from the deed of variation is irrelevant, what is relevant is that he, his brother and his mother had the intention to avoid tax.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Instead of wibbling on about Ed's tax arrangements, the tories should be extolling the incredible job they have done on jobs.

    Britain is a giant jobs powerhouse.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    Whoever has put this together has been on the sauce.

    Lib Dem share 35.2% in NE Derbyshire.

    Far far far far far more ludicrous than the SNP projections.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    Scott_P said:

    @rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie

    I was expecting some low level Labour no-name to wade in and demand an apology and keep this story alive. I didn't think Miliband himself would be that dumb though. He just strung an albatross called "Hypocrite" around his own neck.

    He'll be hung, drawn and quartered by the court of public opinion.... I can't see Rod Crosby explaining the subtleties of his use of a Deed of Variation to The Man In The Checkout Queue.....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,937
    IDS from Wikipedia

    .....Duncan Smith was educated at what is now St. Peter's RC Secondary School, Solihull, until the age of 14,[6] then at HMS Conway, a Merchant Navy training school on the Isle of Anglesey (where he allegedly played rugby union in the position of fly-half alongside Clive Woodward at centre) until he was 18.

    His claim that he studied at the University of Perugia was later found to be false after an investigation by the BBC.[7] His office subsequently admitted that he attended the Italian Università per Stranieri (founded 1921) in Perugia for a year but he did not obtain any qualifications or finish his exams.[7] In 1975 he attended the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and was subsequently commissioned into the Scots Guards.[8] Duncan Smith's biography, on the Conservative Party website, claimed he was "educated at Dunchurch College of Management" but following questioning by the BBC his office confirmed that he did not get any qualifications there either, stating that he completed six separate courses lasting a few days each, adding up to about a month in total.[7] Dunchurch was the former staff college for GEC Marconi, for whom Duncan Smith worked in the 1980s.[7]

    What is it about Tores and Truth? Question for Michael Green
  • Mr. Taffys, agree that the jobs story is what Conservatives ought to focus on.
  • taffys said:

    Instead of wibbling on about Ed's tax arrangements, the tories should be extolling the incredible job they have done on jobs.

    Britain is a giant ZERO-HOURS CONTRACT jobs powerhouse.

    Corrected it for you :)

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Mr. Price, cheers (I did incredibly badly).

    Wasn't there also a general 2014 predictions competition thingummyjig? Or am I raving drunkard whose brandy-fuelled misrememberings bear no relation to reality?


    Wasn't there also a general 2014 predictions competition thingummyjig?

    There were four that I know of last year.

    Euros
    IndyRef
    Rochester & Strood
    Survation SNP lead after the new SLab leader.


    Or am I raving drunkard whose brandy-fuelled misrememberings bear no relation to reality?

    No comment.
  • I missed this from the Sunday Telegraph at the weekend:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11413557/Scottish-Labour-MPs-threaten-to-bar-Ed-Miliband-from-campaigning-in-their-seats.html

    "To test the mood within the party this newspaper talked to numerous Scottish Labour MPs about their hopes of mounting a comeback after the alarming slump in support since the Scottish independence referendum last September.

    Speaking under the condition of anonymity, the MPs painted a dire picture of the party’s hopes north of the border ranging from disbelief at the scale of the collapse to utter despondency.

    One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.

    Another said the abandonment of voters from Labour since the independence vote was comparable to the “backlash” the Conservatives suffered over the poll tax, adding: “There has been an emotional breakage between Scottish voters and Labour. God knows if it can be reformed.”

    A third, when asked how things were looking in Scotland, simply formed his hand into a gun, raised it to his mouth and pulled the trigger."
  • Mr. Price, did we get the 2014 competition results yet?

    Modesty forbids me from revealing who won Double Carpet's "Election Game" version of contest for Euro 2014 :)
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Roger said:

    IDS from Wikipedia

    .....Duncan Smith was educated at what is now St. Peter's RC Secondary School, Solihull, until the age of 14,[6] then at HMS Conway, a Merchant Navy training school on the Isle of Anglesey (where he allegedly played rugby union in the position of fly-half alongside Clive Woodward at centre) until he was 18.

    His claim that he studied at the University of Perugia was later found to be false after an investigation by the BBC.[7] His office subsequently admitted that he attended the Italian Università per Stranieri (founded 1921) in Perugia for a year but he did not obtain any qualifications or finish his exams.[7] In 1975 he attended the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and was subsequently commissioned into the Scots Guards.[8] Duncan Smith's biography, on the Conservative Party website, claimed he was "educated at Dunchurch College of Management" but following questioning by the BBC his office confirmed that he did not get any qualifications there either, stating that he completed six separate courses lasting a few days each, adding up to about a month in total.[7] Dunchurch was the former staff college for GEC Marconi, for whom Duncan Smith worked in the 1980s.[7]

    What is it about Tores and Truth? Question for Michael Green

    Yeah, I'm not sure that IDS making dodgy claims about his education is a great defence against the so-called scourge of tax avoiders going to the bother of varying his father's will in order to put him in a position to avoid inheritance tax.

  • Mr. Hopkins, cheers.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,505

    fpt - my reply to TSE's Cameron/Major comparison

    Cameron could never get the 43% who backed JM4PM including an extraordinary personal vote in his constituency. Let's compare their personal votes 1992 vs 2010.

    Major - 48662 (66%/52%)
    Cameron - 33973 (59%/43%)

    That's total votes followed by the % of the vote they got and the percentage of registered voters who supported them. Amidst all the fuss last week about the Tory fundraiser I thought a vital point was missed. Previous Tory PMs may have cultivated the rich or admired 'buccaneering businessmen' but they were always quite careful about their own image. The one nation tradition that sustained them up to Heath, followed by Thatcher who was always the disciplinarian school marm even if her policies made loads a'money possible and Major was the ordinary bloke from Brixton. That care seems to have been completely lost under Cameron and Osborne. Perhaps they thought if it was okay for New Labour to have an unapologetic appreciation of wealth, why not them? That carelessness could be their undoing.

    Huntingdon in 1992 was a massively oversized constituency with an electorate of 93,000. nearly 20,000 votes were shunted off into the new NW Cambs seat for 1997. Witney in 2010 had 78k electors
    Which is why I put the percentages in. I can only repeat the point though. David Cameron has shown no sign that he is capable of building the size of coalition that John Major did after 13 years in power and during a recession.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie

    Wow, Milliband has just turned a winning hand into a losing hand. He's discaraded the pair from a full house to try and draw 4 of a kind. What a maroon.
    Not so sure about that.

    And have you tried Holdem? Much better game than Draw!
    My best game is Pot Limit Omaha High-Low but I vastly prefer Draw to Texas Holdem, partly because there's a lot more action so I don't get bored and mostly because other players are rank rotten at playing draw, especially sit'n'gos.
  • antifrank said:


    One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.

    By small majorities he presumably means under 13,000?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Neil Kinnock, the former Labour leader, has dismissed fears about the party’s proposed mansion tax, saying that the monthly charge would be little more than an expensive lunch.

    Several Labour MPs have spoken out against the policy — which involves an average payment of about £1,000 a month — warning that it could cost the party votes in central London where the house prices have seen rapid growth in recent decades.
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eeeebecc-b393-11e4-a45f-00144feab7de.html
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,937
    edited February 2015
    Neil

    "Yeah, I'm not sure that IDS making dodgy claims about his education is a great defence against the so-called scourge of tax avoiders going to the bother of varying his father's will in order to put him in a position to avoid inheritance tax."

    What matters is whether he looks and sounds like a tax fiddler. I maintain he doesn't. In fact he strikes me as the last person likely to try to avoid tax,

    By contrast IDS strikes me and most people as as about as sleazy as it's possible for a politician to be and in the court of public opinion that's all that'll matter
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    edited February 2015
    antifrank said:


    One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.

    Who are these MPs with small majorities?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Roger said:

    he strikes me as the last person likely to try to avoid tax

    Apart from indulging in what Gordon Brown described as "tax abuse" obviously...
  • Scott_P said:

    Neil Kinnock, the former Labour leader, has dismissed fears about the party’s proposed mansion tax, saying that the monthly charge would be little more than an expensive lunch.

    Several Labour MPs have spoken out against the policy — which involves an average payment of about £1,000 a month — warning that it could cost the party votes in central London where the house prices have seen rapid growth in recent decades.
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eeeebecc-b393-11e4-a45f-00144feab7de.html

    “I’ll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the years sticking to that, out-dated, mis-placed, irrelevant to the real needs, and you end in the grotesque chaos of a Labour government – a Labour government - hiring taxis to scuttle round a city taking lunch money off its own champagne socialists".
  • Mr. P, Kinnock must enjoy large portions.
  • antifrank said:


    One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.

    By small majorities he presumably means under 13,000?
    Alistair said:

    antifrank said:


    One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.

    Who are these MPs with small majorities?
    It is an amazing turn of phrase.
  • Alistair said:

    antifrank said:


    One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.

    Who are these MPs with small majorities?
    Ian Murray & Mark Lazarowicz. But they have the inestimable advantage of having the Lib Dems in 2nd place...
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie

    Wow, Milliband has just turned a winning hand into a losing hand. He's discaraded the pair from a full house to try and draw 4 of a kind. What a maroon.
    Not so sure about that.

    And have you tried Holdem? Much better game than Draw!
    My best game is Pot Limit Omaha High-Low but I vastly prefer Draw to Texas Holdem, partly because there's a lot more action so I don't get bored and mostly because other players are rank rotten at playing draw, especially sit'n'gos.
    I have been mulling a version of Holdem that includes changing cards. Why couldn't you have a system whereby you could change up to two cards at any time? (but in only one transaction) I have never dared suggest it to my card school, which is extremely conservative and has stuck with holdem for years...
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Ed Milliband is a moron for asking IDS for an apology....
    Or, he really does want to talk about tax, because, after the crap dies down, someone is going to look at the other sides tax details.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Roger said:

    Neil

    "Yeah, I'm not sure that IDS making dodgy claims about his education is a great defence against the so-called scourge of tax avoiders going to the bother of varying his father's will in order to put him in a position to avoid inheritance tax."

    What matters is whether he looks and sounds like a tax fiddler. I maintain he doesn't. In fact he strikes me as the last person likely to try to avoid tax,

    By contrast IDS strikes me and most people as as about as sleazy as it's possible for a politician to be and in the court of public opinion that's all that'll matter

    IDS. Sleazy?

    Really?

    Boring. Misunderstood. Uninspiring. Quiet. Straightforward.

    But I don't see much sleaze about him. He's too prosaic for sleaze.
  • antifrank said:

    Speaking under the condition of anonymity, the MPs painted a dire picture of the party’s hopes north of the border ranging from disbelief at the scale of the collapse to utter despondency.

    One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.

    Another said the abandonment of voters from Labour since the independence vote was comparable to the “backlash” the Conservatives suffered over the poll tax, adding: “There has been an emotional breakage between Scottish voters and Labour. God knows if it can be reformed.”

    A third, when asked how things were looking in Scotland, simply formed his hand into a gun, raised it to his mouth and pulled the trigger."

    Yes, good, isn't it?
  • Mr. P, Kinnock must enjoy large portions.

    Generally speaking, the more you pay for food in a restaurant, the less you get.

    At the sort of prices mentioned the portion size would be verging on the homeopathic.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @rowenamason: Miliband is demanding apology from IDS over claims he avoided tax and accusing him of bringing politics into disrepute by repeating a lie

    Wow, Milliband has just turned a winning hand into a losing hand. He's discaraded the pair from a full house to try and draw 4 of a kind. What a maroon.
    Not so sure about that.

    And have you tried Holdem? Much better game than Draw!
    My best game is Pot Limit Omaha High-Low but I vastly prefer Draw to Texas Holdem, partly because there's a lot more action so I don't get bored and mostly because other players are rank rotten at playing draw, especially sit'n'gos.
    I have been mulling a version of Holdem that includes changing cards. Why couldn't you have a system whereby you could change up to two cards at any time? (but in only one transaction) I have never dared suggest it to my card school, which is extremely conservative and has stuck with holdem for years...
    http://uk.pokernews.com/poker-rules/crazy-pineapple.htm is a nice variant you might like to consider
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,937
    Antifrank

    "Speaking under the condition of anonymity, the MPs painted a dire picture of the party’s hopes north of the border ranging from disbelief at the scale of the collapse to utter despondency."

    But as we now all know thanks to Peter Oborne the Telegraph just pull stories out of their backside. Not a single name on their story. In the honesty stakes I'd almost put them up there with Grant Shapps
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    edited February 2015
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:


    One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.

    By small majorities he presumably means under 13,000?
    Alistair said:

    antifrank said:


    One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.

    Who are these MPs with small majorities?
    It is an amazing turn of phrase.
    I found one, Ayrshire North & Arran is a majority of a mere 9895 over the SNP.

    Oh and Aberdeen North is 8361.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    Ochil & South Perthshire is I think the smallest Lab winner to second place SNP at 5187
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    Ed Milliband is a moron for asking IDS for an apology....
    Or, he really does want to talk about tax, because, after the crap dies down, someone is going to look at the other sides tax details.

    Tories playing by Labours rules. Ha Ha Ha.
  • Alistair said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:


    One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.

    By small majorities he presumably means under 13,000?
    Alistair said:

    antifrank said:


    One Scottish Labour MP compared the impact of the sudden drop in support to a “cardiac arrest”, adding that colleagues were still reeling with shock while others on small majorities had all but given up hope of re-election.

    Who are these MPs with small majorities?
    It is an amazing turn of phrase.
    I found one, Ayrshire North & Arran is a majority of a mere 9895 over the SNP.

    Oh and Aberdeen North is 8361.
    The closest SNP challenge is actually in Ochil & South Perthshire, with a modest 5,187 [10.3%] majority. Unsurprisingly they are 1/6 [value?] to take this.

    1 Lab 19,131 37.9%
    2 Nat 13,944 27.6%
    3 Con 10,342 20.5%
    4 LD 5,754 11.4%
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Roger said:


    In fact he strikes me as the last person likely to try to avoid tax,

    Given his public stance on tax avoidance you would think that would the case, wouldnt you? Sadly not. He seems to be a huge hypocrite about this.
  • Roger said:

    But as we now all know thanks to Peter Oborne the Telegraph just pull stories out of their backside. Not a single name on their story. In the honesty stakes I'd almost put them up there with Grant Shapps

    Isn't Peter Oborne's allegation more that the Telegraph just pull stories?
  • UKIP candidate for Barking selected: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-IZYOJCUAAK7sU.png:large

    Must be the wrong photo, that one looks too sensible.
  • It would be a bigger story if Scottish Labour MPs were not sinking into utter despondency.
  • Roger said:

    But as we now all know thanks to Peter Oborne the Telegraph just pull stories out of their backside. Not a single name on their story. In the honesty stakes I'd almost put them up there with Grant Shapps

    Isn't Peter Oborne's allegation more that the Telegraph just pull stories?
    ...about anyone with a large advertising budget.
  • Just by way of puncturing our little bubble still further, it should be noted that betting on Who Killed Lucy Beale? has vastly exceeded betting on the General Election so far, according to most bookies' reps.
  • Roger said:

    Neil

    "Yeah, I'm not sure that IDS making dodgy claims about his education is a great defence against the so-called scourge of tax avoiders going to the bother of varying his father's will in order to put him in a position to avoid inheritance tax."

    What matters is whether he looks and sounds like a tax fiddler. I maintain he doesn't. In fact he strikes me as the last person likely to try to avoid tax,

    By contrast IDS strikes me and most people as as about as sleazy as it's possible for a politician to be and in the court of public opinion that's all that'll matter

    You've clearly never met the man.
    I can tell you he would never be gratuitously rude to someone he has never met.
This discussion has been closed.