With 15% in Tisza is now forecast to get 125 seats. Comfortably into majority territory, but not into "change the Constitution"
It's moving in that direction though: 128 : 62 : 8 with 25% counted
As it currently stands, Fidesz is due to win just 13 out of 105 constituency seats.
That's a an absolute shellacking.
In Spanish, but you will get the gist...
Lo más interesante de las elecciones de Hungría es el derrumbe absoluto de Orbán en las circunscripciones uninominales (a lo británico/estadounidense). El problema del gerrymandering es que, cuando tu porcentaje de voto cae por debajo de cierto nivel, el colapso es total.
With 15% in Tisza is now forecast to get 125 seats. Comfortably into majority territory, but not into "change the Constitution"
It's moving in that direction though: 128 : 62 : 8 with 25% counted
As it currently stands, Fidesz is due to win just 13 out of 105 constituency seats.
That's a an absolute shellacking.
In Spanish, but you will get the gist...
Lo más interesante de las elecciones de Hungría es el derrumbe absoluto de Orbán en las circunscripciones uninominales (a lo británico/estadounidense). El problema del gerrymandering es que, cuando tu porcentaje de voto cae por debajo de cierto nivel, el colapso es total.
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
But that core is shrinking fast and there’s a whole new cohort of younger republicans who are critical of Israel and some who are violently anti semitic
So Israel’s base of support in the USA is already dwindled on the left and is now briskly dwindling on the right
And imagine this scenario, which is now unfortunately likely. The Iran war continues and it goes bad for the world and for Trump and the GOP. Inflation rockets and gas doubles in price. The midterms are lost big time
Who will republicans blame? Israel. For dragging America into this stupid war - Vance has already been to Jerusalem to shout loudly and angrily at Netanyahu
By 2028 the American right might be even more furious at Israel
23% of Americans are conservative evangelicals and they voted 82% for Trump in 2024, they will remain far more significant to the GOP for at least the next decade or two than younger Republicans given Trump lost most US voters under 40 to Harris.
If the Iran war is going badly it is because Trump is not following Israel enough, sending in ground troops to remove the Iranian regime, so as a result he has a half way house of strikes and blockades which keep oil prices high but the regime still in place.
Conservative evangelicals won't blame Israel and without the conservative evangelical vote Roman Catholic Vance can't get the nomination, even if he needs to distance himself from them to win more Israel sceptic swing voters in the general election
“If the Iran war is going badly it is because Trump is not following Israel enough, sending in ground troops to remove the Iranian regime”
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
"Literally"?
"Literally" can be a contranym and actually mean "figuratively", but I think he means "actually", figuratively speaking.
No it can't.
It shouldn't. It makes no sense for it to do so. But word usage can shift in unfortunate and fortunate ways, and I think the battle over literally has already been lost.
At least if that is the case hopefully people can also stop being prissy about fewer/less, which in most (not all) cases is not necessary.
You may think that, but that's just you.
And your contrary view is just you, so I'm not sure what's gained with that stance.
Linguistic rules and usage change all the time, that's fact considering we don't speak like Shakespeare or Chaucer, so people cannot pretend it will remain static forever. Whether certain ones have in fact changed we will only know with the passage of time.
I'm fairly confident that the mere fact that so many people misuse literally is a sign in itself I am right in this prediction.
That episode is number 188 and is over an hour long. Implying that I would need to listen to 9 days continual broadcasts to catch up with where presumably you are in your listening. At one hour a day it would take over 6 months.
Are you sure that this would we a wise investment of my remaining time on this earth as a 65 year old with a few medical issues?
Nick Thorpe Central Europe correspondent, in Budapest.
“Just 21.5% of the vote has been counted so far, but as it stands, the far-right Our Homeland party is hovering close to the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. It looks set to be the only minor party in contention for a seat, though it massively trails the two main parties.
The race between Fidesz and Tisza looks close, with only 3 or 4% dividing them - Fidesz leading in some places, Tisza in others.
The count has been fastest in mostly western Hungarian districts.”
Is he drunk ? What a load of nonsense . It’s nowhere near close .
Orban's going to have a hard time claiming fraud or intimidation with this. It's an absolute shellacking.
Hate to think what it would have been like without the massive bribery, fraud and intimidation.
And we're not going to have another lockdown. Ignore the hysteria.
Even if the very worst predictions come to pass everyone will still be free to visit other people, to go to pubs, etc. Even with a 20% cut in fuel supply there's still 80% of fuel. There could be very bad impacts, but it won't be at all like a pandemic.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
"Literally"?
"Literally" can be a contranym and actually mean "figuratively", but I think he means "actually", figuratively speaking.
No it can't.
The English language is an evolving thing that changes as people use it differently. We lost the battle on this one. Literally is now often used simply as an indicator of emphasis, rather than for its prior, literal, meaning.
That's because more people are getting it wrong.
You can say that you think the fact that more people are ill-educated should mean that their mistake enters the lexicon, I say otherwise.
Watch the vid attached to this and you know straight away why this academic with his fuck off palatial kitchen slugging champagne lost to a plumber in south manchester.
Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ A life moment I will never forget. All I’ve had for two weeks is endless criticism from the establishment.
But last night, we came back from a quiet dinner out and the news came through…
Suicide of a Nation is not just in the Sunday Times bestseller list for the second week running.
With 15% in Tisza is now forecast to get 125 seats. Comfortably into majority territory, but not into "change the Constitution"
It's moving in that direction though: 128 : 62 : 8 with 25% counted
As it currently stands, Fidesz is due to win just 13 out of 105 constituency seats.
That's a an absolute shellacking.
In Spanish, but you will get the gist...
Lo más interesante de las elecciones de Hungría es el derrumbe absoluto de Orbán en las circunscripciones uninominales (a lo británico/estadounidense). El problema del gerrymandering es que, cuando tu porcentaje de voto cae por debajo de cierto nivel, el colapso es total.
Watch the vid attached to this and you know straight away why this academic with his fuck off palatial kitchen slugging champagne lost to a plumber in south manchester.
Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ A life moment I will never forget. All I’ve had for two weeks is endless criticism from the establishment.
But last night, we came back from a quiet dinner out and the news came through…
Suicide of a Nation is not just in the Sunday Times bestseller list for the second week running.
Orban battered. Good news for the EU. Hopefully they'll kick Hungary out. Nobody wants another 15 years like that again. Maybe a good time for the UK to renue their membership?
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
A significant proportion of MAGA / alt-right is anti-Jew.
Which might explain the hostility to Zelensky.
Although another significant proportion of MAGA / alt-right is anti-Muslim.
No, they hate Zelensky because he wouldn't frame Hunter Biden. Hundreds of thousands have died because of that piece of integrity.
Orban battered. Good news for the EU. Hopefully they'll kick Hungary out. Nobody wants another 15 years like that again. Maybe a good time for the UK to renue their membership?
Why would they kick Hungary out now Orban has gone? That's the best way to bring him back.
With 15% in Tisza is now forecast to get 125 seats. Comfortably into majority territory, but not into "change the Constitution"
It's moving in that direction though: 128 : 62 : 8 with 25% counted
As it currently stands, Fidesz is due to win just 13 out of 105 constituency seats.
That's a an absolute shellacking.
In Spanish, but you will get the gist...
Lo más interesante de las elecciones de Hungría es el derrumbe absoluto de Orbán en las circunscripciones uninominales (a lo británico/estadounidense). El problema del gerrymandering es que, cuando tu porcentaje de voto cae por debajo de cierto nivel, el colapso es total.
Orban battered. Good news for the EU. Hopefully they'll kick Hungary out. Nobody wants another 15 years like that again. Maybe a good time for the UK to renue their membership?
Errr..surely if they've got rid of Orban there is no need to kick Hungary out?
If they were bothered about countries being run by Fascist crooks subverting the rules for their own ends both France and Luxembourg would have been out years ago.
Orban battered. Good news for the EU. Hopefully they'll kick Hungary out. Nobody wants another 15 years like that again. Maybe a good time for the UK to renue their membership?
The top of the official results page seems to be giving a prediction of what the final result will be based on the current returns, which is a bit unusual for an official results page. Usually they don't do forecasts, just actual results.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
"Literally"?
"Literally" can be a contranym and actually mean "figuratively", but I think he means "actually", figuratively speaking.
No it can't.
The English language is an evolving thing that changes as people use it differently. We lost the battle on this one. Literally is now often used simply as an indicator of emphasis, rather than for its prior, literal, meaning.
That's because more people are getting it wrong.
You can say that you think the fact that more people are ill-educated should mean that their mistake enters the lexicon, I say otherwise.
It's really as simple as that.
You accept that language has changed over time, right? That we no longer use words the same way, spell them the same way, pronounce them the same way?
So I'm not sure who has declared you the arbiter of the English language, a one man Academie Francais.
I'm personally sympathetic to the specific example you're complaining about here, but you seem to be just denying that language can change because you personally don't like it, and that's not stubborn insistence to the 'correct' way of doing things, it's just ignoring how languages work.
Orban battered. Good news for the EU. Hopefully they'll kick Hungary out. Nobody wants another 15 years like that again. Maybe a good time for the UK to renue their membership?
Kick them out? Just when the long awaited reversal happens?
Nick Thorpe Central Europe correspondent, in Budapest.
“Just 21.5% of the vote has been counted so far, but as it stands, the far-right Our Homeland party is hovering close to the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. It looks set to be the only minor party in contention for a seat, though it massively trails the two main parties.
The race between Fidesz and Tisza looks close, with only 3 or 4% dividing them - Fidesz leading in some places, Tisza in others.
The count has been fastest in mostly western Hungarian districts.”
Is he drunk ? What a load of nonsense . It’s nowhere near close .
On pure percentage terms it was at the time it was written, in seat terms though it was not.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
"Literally"?
"Literally" can be a contranym and actually mean "figuratively", but I think he means "actually", figuratively speaking.
No it can't.
It shouldn't. It makes no sense for it to do so. But word usage can shift in unfortunate and fortunate ways, and I think the battle over literally has already been lost.
At least if that is the case hopefully people can also stop being prissy about fewer/less, which in most (not all) cases is not necessary.
You may think that, but that's just you.
And your contrary view is just you, so I'm not sure what's gained with that stance.
Linguistic rules and usage change all the time, that's fact considering we don't speak like Shakespeare or Chaucer, so people cannot pretend it will remain static forever. Whether certain ones have in fact changed we will only know with the passage of time.
I'm fairly confident that the mere fact that so many people misuse literally is a sign in itself I am right in this prediction.
That episode is number 188 and is over an hour long. Implying that I would need to listen to 9 days continual broadcasts to catch up with where presumably you are in your listening. At one hour a day it would take over 6 months.
Are you sure that this would we a wise investment of my remaining time on this earth as a 65 year old with a few medical issues?
If dystopian satire is your thing, you might instead try Amazon's "The Boys".
The fifth and final season is underway, and it is a reassuringly pottymouthed as ever.
Invincible superhero dictator Homelander is turning steadily more mad. Paranoia is all around.
Orban battered. Good news for the EU. Hopefully they'll kick Hungary out. Nobody wants another 15 years like that again. Maybe a good time for the UK to renue their membership?
Hang on. Hungary are voting in the pro EU guy!
Roger's trying to be wrong more ways in a post than there are words in the same post. Art, really.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
Suspect it will look and feel rather different, even if the economic effect is much the same.
In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).
For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
I am also one of those who loved lockdown. But I suspect those of us who have that view are from a very privileged minority in terms of work, family, gardens and access to open spaces. We need to be self aware enough to realise that for millions of people it was a very different experience.
It's incredibly selfish to view the lockdown as good when most of the data makes it clear it was bad overall for the population.
The pipeline to Jask is not, as far as I'm aware, operational. Albeit it probably could be operationalized relatively quickly.
Re: 1
There are nearly no Chinese *flagged* oil tankers. Quite a few Chinese *owned* - but they are mostly registered in the usual countries - Liberia, Panama....
Isn't it even often even more complicated where they are flagged in one country, the operator and owner are different again, often shell companies, and perhaps if you do enough leg work, you might get back to the fact that perhaps they are connected to Hong Kong somehow, which doesn't instantly mean China. Mostly likely China, but not 100%.
Yes.
The classic is that you set up a company per tanker. The company is based in a different country to the flag on the tanker. The company owns the tanker, but you load it up with debt. Both countries have essentially no rules on employment, safety etc. Just give them a fee.
So if there are any accidents, all people can do is sue a company that is bankrupt - it probably just lost its only asset - in places where a lawsuit won't work.
That company is owned by another company. Depending how... convoluted your finances are, that leads to a chains of ownership. Which is very. very multinational.
So you have complete immunity to liability, you can pay the crew starvation wages and tax is optional.
What's not to like?
I was next to a bloke who was a lifer in the maritime industry on a plane to Asia last year. Some of the stuff he told me, mind boggles. It really is the high seas / wild west.
The other scandal that is brewing is now China doing super sized sea fishing around the world where the fishermen stay out for months / years at a time, and a mega mothership supplies them. They are often fishing in territorial waters of other countries, but nobody can stop them. And the guys on the smaller boats they don't have much of a choice when they go home.
The Chinese have implanted the USSR period factory ships - and as usual, upgraded the concept to the max.
This is one reason they are very interested in the waters around Chagos. They’ve stripped out lots of other places.
Fun fact about the shipping industry. Each year a number of inspectors are injured. Falling through rusty decks.
Quite common for them to carry a lump hammer - give each rung on a ladder a bang. This is because rungs breaking due to corrosion is an everyday occurrence.
With 15% in Tisza is now forecast to get 125 seats. Comfortably into majority territory, but not into "change the Constitution"
It's moving in that direction though: 128 : 62 : 8 with 25% counted
As it currently stands, Fidesz is due to win just 13 out of 105 constituency seats.
That's a an absolute shellacking.
In Spanish, but you will get the gist...
Lo más interesante de las elecciones de Hungría es el derrumbe absoluto de Orbán en las circunscripciones uninominales (a lo británico/estadounidense). El problema del gerrymandering es que, cuando tu porcentaje de voto cae por debajo de cierto nivel, el colapso es total.
Nick Thorpe Central Europe correspondent, in Budapest.
“Just 21.5% of the vote has been counted so far, but as it stands, the far-right Our Homeland party is hovering close to the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. It looks set to be the only minor party in contention for a seat, though it massively trails the two main parties.
The race between Fidesz and Tisza looks close, with only 3 or 4% dividing them - Fidesz leading in some places, Tisza in others.
The count has been fastest in mostly western Hungarian districts.”
Is he drunk ? What a load of nonsense . It’s nowhere near close .
I'm glad to see the license fee is being used well.
That said in every single group people unprompted brought up their respect for Starmer for standing up to Trump and ‘stopping us being dragged into a war’ for some it was the first time they had seen Starmer fight for Britain. Some others thought he needed longer to prove himself
NEW: Nigel Farage will tomorrow pledge a national inquiry into the ‘Boriswave’
It would mainly investigate Boris Johnson and Priti Patel over migrants entering the UK between 2021-2024
Party sources say the inquiry would consider “whether their gross negligence in office amounted to criminal conduct”
The Trump playbook = paint your enemies as criminals.
C***
Yup. Zero mystery here. Boris was just quite relaxed about immigration. It’s just that his voters weren’t, and he may have promised them one or two things he never meant.
NEW: Nigel Farage will tomorrow pledge a national inquiry into the ‘Boriswave’
It would mainly investigate Boris Johnson and Priti Patel over migrants entering the UK between 2021-2024
Party sources say the inquiry would consider “whether their gross negligence in office amounted to criminal conduct”
The Trump playbook = paint your enemies as criminals.
C***
Yup. Zero mystery here. Boris was just quite relaxed about immigration. It’s just that his voters weren’t, and he may have promised them one or two things he never meant.
The voters were at the time, despite saying they weren't.
The US President was v.unpopular across groups with worries about his unpredictability, his commitment to NATO (combined with UK not being able to defend itself which came up a lot), and general sense of chaos. The Trump factor was definitely blunting Reform’s appeal (below).
Guardian website still declaring Hungary a close race. Actually it's looking like an arse kicking for Urban, Putin and Vance, too.
How will the USA punish Hungary in that case?
Vance might have known a loss was actually possible, but Trump probably gets told (by Orban) how popular Orban is, and so assume any loss cannot be true.
More importantly how dies the UK wing of MAGA react.
Nige and Kemi will be devastated.
Nige maybe, Kemi should copy Magyar on how a centre right leader can beat a nationalist right leader
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
A significant proportion of MAGA / alt-right is anti-Jew.
Which might explain the hostility to Zelensky.
Although another significant proportion of MAGA / alt-right is anti-Muslim.
The latter is far more significant in the GOP than the former now, driven by conservative evangelicals and white nationalists (the fact Putin is also a white nationalist though is why they are less keen on Zelensky than Netanyahu)
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
But that core is shrinking fast and there’s a whole new cohort of younger republicans who are critical of Israel and some who are violently anti semitic
So Israel’s base of support in the USA is already dwindled on the left and is now briskly dwindling on the right
And imagine this scenario, which is now unfortunately likely. The Iran war continues and it goes bad for the world and for Trump and the GOP. Inflation rockets and gas doubles in price. The midterms are lost big time
Who will republicans blame? Israel. For dragging America into this stupid war - Vance has already been to Jerusalem to shout loudly and angrily at Netanyahu
By 2028 the American right might be even more furious at Israel
23% of Americans are conservative evangelicals and they voted 82% for Trump in 2024, they will remain far more significant to the GOP for at least the next decade or two than younger Republicans given Trump lost most US voters under 40 to Harris.
If the Iran war is going badly it is because Trump is not following Israel enough, sending in ground troops to remove the Iranian regime, so as a result he has a half way house of strikes and blockades which keep oil prices high but the regime still in place.
Conservative evangelicals won't blame Israel and without the conservative evangelical vote Roman Catholic Vance can't get the GOP nomination, even if he needs to distance himself from them to win more Israel sceptic swing voters in the general election
People might love God.
But they love being able to afford to fill up their pick-up truck.
Swing voters maybe, conservative evangelicals though always put God and Israel and the Book of Revelation first
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
"Literally"?
"Literally" can be a contranym and actually mean "figuratively", but I think he means "actually", figuratively speaking.
No it can't.
The English language is an evolving thing that changes as people use it differently. We lost the battle on this one. Literally is now often used simply as an indicator of emphasis, rather than for its prior, literal, meaning.
That's because more people are getting it wrong.
You can say that you think the fact that more people are ill-educated should mean that their mistake enters the lexicon, I say otherwise.
It's really as simple as that.
You accept that language has changed over time, right? That we no longer use words the same way, spell them the same way, pronounce them the same way?
So I'm not sure who has declared you the arbiter of the English language, a one man Academie Francais.
I'm personally sympathetic to specific example you're complaining about here, but you seem to be just denying that language can change because you personally don't like it, and that's not stubborn insistence to the 'correct' way of doing things, it's just ignoring how languages work.
I assumed this was just a bit, but I guess not.
The language has not changed. The meaning of the word has not been lost in the sands of time over centuries or decades; we have ample resources where the correct meaning is explained.
That is quite different from an evolution of the language. I see this as more like the modern mullet - a silly trend that will clearly be seen as rather embarrassing when looking back. Rather than changing the entire meaning of a useful word (is there now no word that means 'literally' according to you?) people who make the mistake should just be corrected - it is just a feature of our current political miasma that we don't feel we can correct people any more because it might upset them.
NEW: Nigel Farage will tomorrow pledge a national inquiry into the ‘Boriswave’
It would mainly investigate Boris Johnson and Priti Patel over migrants entering the UK between 2021-2024
Party sources say the inquiry would consider “whether their gross negligence in office amounted to criminal conduct”
It didn't. There, I just saved the old git £20m ... should the worst happen and he manages to weasel into office.
Yeah I don’t get it. They both openly said they wanted to increase immigration and that’s what they did. They never said Brexit was about reducing immigration just controlling who the people were. They chose more Indians.
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
But that core is shrinking fast and there’s a whole new cohort of younger republicans who are critical of Israel and some who are violently anti semitic
So Israel’s base of support in the USA is already dwindled on the left and is now briskly dwindling on the right
And imagine this scenario, which is now unfortunately likely. The Iran war continues and it goes bad for the world and for Trump and the GOP. Inflation rockets and gas doubles in price. The midterms are lost big time
Who will republicans blame? Israel. For dragging America into this stupid war - Vance has already been to Jerusalem to shout loudly and angrily at Netanyahu
By 2028 the American right might be even more furious at Israel
23% of Americans are conservative evangelicals and they voted 82% for Trump in 2024, they will remain far more significant to the GOP for at least the next decade or two than younger Republicans given Trump lost most US voters under 40 to Harris.
If the Iran war is going badly it is because Trump is not following Israel enough, sending in ground troops to remove the Iranian regime, so as a result he has a half way house of strikes and blockades which keep oil prices high but the regime still in place.
Conservative evangelicals won't blame Israel and without the conservative evangelical vote Roman Catholic Vance can't get the GOP nomination, even if he needs to distance himself from them to win more Israel sceptic swing voters in the general election
People might love God.
But they love being able to afford to fill up their pick-up truck.
Swing voters maybe, conservative evangelicals though always put God and Israel and the Book of Revelation first
We were in Budapest last October. Had a great guided walk around the city. Our guide was a young Hungarian (who had a Glaswegian grandfather which was quite a story). He told us how the young were yearning for change and completely sick of the corruption of Orban and his associates. He expected a dirty election with lots of attempts to intimidate voters to stick with Fidesz - but was confident that the young would prevail. Looks like he was right.
If Orban does the right thing and accepts this defeat with grace and doesn’t try any funny business before the new parliament is seated then no way should Tisza and Magyar go after him .
If Orban does the right thing and accepts this defeat with grace and doesn’t try any funny business before the new parliament is seated then no way should Tisza and Magyar go after him .
He already did.
I hate the man but he’s clearly got more class than Trump
NEW: Nigel Farage will tomorrow pledge a national inquiry into the ‘Boriswave’
It would mainly investigate Boris Johnson and Priti Patel over migrants entering the UK between 2021-2024
Party sources say the inquiry would consider “whether their gross negligence in office amounted to criminal conduct”
It didn't. There, I just saved the old git £20m ... should the worst happen and he manages to weasel into office.
Yeah I don’t get it. They both openly said they wanted to increase immigration and that’s what they did. They never said Brexit was about reducing immigration just controlling who the people were. They chose more Indians.
I get it. Farage has always been a mendacious rabble rouser.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
"Literally"?
"Literally" can be a contranym and actually mean "figuratively", but I think he means "actually", figuratively speaking.
No it can't.
The English language is an evolving thing that changes as people use it differently. We lost the battle on this one. Literally is now often used simply as an indicator of emphasis, rather than for its prior, literal, meaning.
That's because more people are getting it wrong.
You can say that you think the fact that more people are ill-educated should mean that their mistake enters the lexicon, I say otherwise.
It's really as simple as that.
You accept that language has changed over time, right? That we no longer use words the same way, spell them the same way, pronounce them the same way?
So I'm not sure who has declared you the arbiter of the English language, a one man Academie Francais.
I'm personally sympathetic to specific example you're complaining about here, but you seem to be just denying that language can change because you personally don't like it, and that's not stubborn insistence to the 'correct' way of doing things, it's just ignoring how languages work.
I assumed this was just a bit, but I guess not.
The language has not changed. The meaning of the word has not been lost in the sands of time over centuries or decades; we have ample resources where the correct meaning is explained.
That is quite different from an evolution of the language. I see this as more like the modern mullet - a silly trend that will clearly be seen as rather embarrassing when looking back. Rather than changing the entire meaning of a useful word (is there now no word that means 'literally' according to you?) people who make the mistake should just be corrected - it is just a feature of our current political miasma that we don't feel we can correct people any more because it might upset them.
In that spirit, I am happy to correct you, kle is right on this one.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
"Literally"?
"Literally" can be a contranym and actually mean "figuratively", but I think he means "actually", figuratively speaking.
No it can't.
The English language is an evolving thing that changes as people use it differently. We lost the battle on this one. Literally is now often used simply as an indicator of emphasis, rather than for its prior, literal, meaning.
That's because more people are getting it wrong.
You can say that you think the fact that more people are ill-educated should mean that their mistake enters the lexicon, I say otherwise.
It's really as simple as that.
English isn't French. We do not have an Academie Anglaise. English dictionaries are documents that describe how English is used, rather than prescribe how it should be used.
People are getting it wrong. So many people are getting it wrong that it's literally no longer wrong.
Although I regret the damage done to literally, English is a better and richer language for being free to be mangled by its users. Long may it continue.
Orban battered. Good news for the EU. Hopefully they'll kick Hungary out. Nobody wants another 15 years like that again. Maybe a good time for the UK to renue their membership?
Hang on. Hungary are voting in the pro EU guy!
I know but the system in Hungary is rancid. It's never down to one person
Comments
Obviously JD Vance deserves much of the credit, but Matt Goodwin has also been campaigning
'I would never have dared start. But once started, I would never have dared stop.'
That episode is number 188 and is over an hour long. Implying that I would need to listen to 9 days continual broadcasts to catch up with where presumably you are in your listening. At one hour a day it would take over 6 months.
Are you sure that this would we a wise investment of my remaining time on this earth as a 65 year old with a few medical issues?
In fact, who apart from the UK carries all the ballot boxes to a single central sports hall before doing anything else?
Hate to think what it would have been like without the massive bribery, fraud and intimidation.
You can say that you think the fact that more people are ill-educated should mean that their mistake enters the lexicon, I say otherwise.
It's really as simple as that.
53% counted
If they were bothered about countries being run by Fascist crooks subverting the rules for their own ends both France and Luxembourg would have been out years ago.
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos
So I'm not sure who has declared you the arbiter of the English language, a one man Academie Francais.
I'm personally sympathetic to the specific example you're complaining about here, but you seem to be just denying that language can change because you personally don't like it, and that's not stubborn insistence to the 'correct' way of doing things, it's just ignoring how languages work.
I assumed this was just a bit, but I guess not.
Chalk a good night up for First Past the Post.
The fifth and final season is underway, and it is a reassuringly pottymouthed as ever.
Invincible superhero dictator Homelander is turning steadily more mad.
Paranoia is all around.
Magyar projected for 136.
Any markets on how soon Orban will be jailed?
This is one reason they are very interested in the waters around Chagos. They’ve stripped out lots of other places.
Fun fact about the shipping industry. Each year a number of inspectors are injured. Falling through rusty decks.
Quite common for them to carry a lump hammer - give each rung on a ladder a bang. This is because rungs breaking due to corrosion is an everyday occurrence.
NEW: Nigel Farage will tomorrow pledge a national inquiry into the ‘Boriswave’
It would mainly investigate Boris Johnson and Priti Patel over migrants entering the UK between 2021-2024
Party sources say the inquiry would consider “whether their gross negligence in office amounted to criminal conduct”
C***
That said in every single group people unprompted brought up their respect for Starmer for standing up to Trump and ‘stopping us being dragged into a war’ for some it was the first time they had seen Starmer fight for Britain. Some others thought he needed longer to prove himself
Starmer presents an opportunity
If it had been close, he might have tried something. But you can't contest a blowout like this. The Army would surely turn on him.
The US President was v.unpopular across groups with worries about his unpredictability, his commitment to NATO (combined with UK not being able to defend itself which came up a lot), and general sense of chaos. The Trump factor was definitely blunting Reform’s appeal (below).
Wales seems to be about how to stop Reform.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zadCzPLiNcY
Strange it’s not a UK election but I’m just ecstatic.
There, I just saved the old git £20m ... should the worst happen and he manages to weasel into office.
I mean, we can all see Trump getting more and more feeble minded with that weird meltdown today. But Vance must be feeling pretty blue as well.
Pause.
What Winsor Davies said...
It's also a deeply embarrasing day for Trump and Vance. Not that Trump will notice. He'll probably be told that Orban won.
That is quite different from an evolution of the language. I see this as more like the modern mullet - a silly trend that will clearly be seen as rather embarrassing when looking back. Rather than changing the entire meaning of a useful word (is there now no word that means 'literally' according to you?) people who make the mistake should just be corrected - it is just a feature of our current political miasma that we don't feel we can correct people any more because it might upset them.
I hate the man but he’s clearly got more class than Trump
Farage has always been a mendacious rabble rouser.
People are getting it wrong. So many people are getting it wrong that it's literally no longer wrong.
Although I regret the damage done to literally, English is a better and richer language for being free to be mangled by its users. Long may it continue.
Couldn't have happened to a more deserving couchshagger.
It isn't just Popes at risk from his negative Midas touch.
Who does that remind me of?
Just to be clear are we at a 100% losing rate on Trump-adjacent candidates now?
JD flies to Islamabad. No deal.
Looks like little Marco has played a blinder.
This "we lost fair and square" attitude may not be to their tastes.
And might catch on.