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All Eyes Turn to Hungary – politicalbetting.com

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,339

    eek said:

    So Vance will this week

    1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
    2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran

    So much winning...

    With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

    Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.
    With respect to MarqueeMark, aren't all the eyes on if Rory will blow the Masters later on today?
    Playing safe yesterday didn't suit him - he'll be out swinging later.
    Hopefully on the course not the Tiger way?
    Rory's driving is as bad as Tiger's. His tee to green record in the Masters is dire. It shows what a great golfer he is to have built up a record lead despite this. But I've backed Cameron Young for the win so we'll see.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,833

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

    If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

    If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

    Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

    So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
    Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
    Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
    It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
    "Unfairly". Did you live between 2010 and 2024?
    Given they had to deal with Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, cost of living crisis, it is looking like a golden age of governance compared to Starmer's Labour!
    Absolutely not. They are the cause of or have worsened almost all of our current problems. They refused to invest in the future (see: nuclear power, infrastructure, defence), let everything else crumble, and most importantly were the cause of Brexit.

    "Unfairly toxic" indeed. The Conservative Party will absolutely never get my vote.
    None so blind as those who won't see.

    For every one of you like that about the Tories, there are currently three like that about Starmer's Labour.

    Labour were voted in with a massive majority to improve on what the Tories had done. Not to make things worse.
    The assertion was the "Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate" and, well, they are. Labour's position really has nothing to do with it.
    But it does explain the polling for Reform, Greens, PC in Wales and SNP in Scotland.

    There's a plurality in this country that wants neither Tories nor Labour, though disagrees what they want instead.

    The similtaneous bloodbath of both Tories and Labour in a FPTP election is going to be chaos. I don't expect it to be possible to form a stable government afterwards.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    edited April 12
    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

    If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

    If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

    Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

    So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
    Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
    Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
    It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
    Less so now. For example, Yougov have found 45% of LD voters would tactically vote for a Tory incumbent in a seat only the Conservatives or Reform could win, more than the 29% who would stay LD.

    30% of Labour voters would also tactically vote Tory to beat Reform, only slightly less than the 35% who would stay Labour. Greens are less likely to do so but even with them 25% of Green voters would hold their nose and vote Tory to beat Reform, even if 55% would still vote Green

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54117-what-is-the-tactical-voting-landscape-in-february-2026
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,120
    edited April 12
    The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,833
    edited April 12
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

    If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

    If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

    Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

    So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
    Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
    Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
    It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
    Less so now, for example, Yougov have found 45% of LD voters would tactically vote for a Tory incumbent in a seat only the Conservatives or Reform could win, more than the 29% who would stay LD.

    30% of Labour voters would also tactically vote Tory to beat Reform, only slightly less than the 35% who would stay Labour. Greens are less likely to do so but even with them 25% of Green voters would hold their nose and vote Tory to beat Reform, even if 55% would still vote Green

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54117-what-is-the-tactical-voting-landscape-in-february-2026
    They won't do that if Badenoch says she would support a Reform government. The only way she can gain tactical votes is distancing herself as far as possible from Faragism. That however loses her own Faragist tendency.

    She is in a very vulnerable position to that squeeze.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488

    eek said:

    So Vance will this week

    1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
    2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran

    So much winning...

    With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

    Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.
    With respect to MarqueeMark, aren't all the eyes on if Rory will blow the Masters later on today?
    Playing safe yesterday didn't suit him - he'll be out swinging later.
    Hopefully on the course not the Tiger way?
    Rory's driving is as bad as Tiger's. His tee to green record in the Masters is dire. It shows what a great golfer he is to have built up a record lead despite this. But I've backed Cameron Young for the win so we'll see.
    Drive for show.

    Putt for dough.

    If he swings on the putting green he's epically screwed.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760
    edited April 12

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

    If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

    If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

    Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

    So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
    Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
    Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
    It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
    "Unfairly". Did you live between 2010 and 2024?
    Given they had to deal with Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, cost of living crisis, it is looking like a golden age of governance compared to Starmer's Labour!
    Austerity was a Conservative Party choice. We are currently reaping the rewards of austerity. Make of that as you will.

    Brexit was an invention of the Conservative Party and considered a price worth paying for a Boris Johnson premiership. We are currently reaping the rewards of Brexit.

    Conservative mismanagement of COViD is off the scale. PPE corruption, and the criminally incompetent and absurdly expensive wage relief schemes will live with us for decades.

    Disastrous Liz Truss, whose Chancellor crashed the economy and created the cost of living crisis was I believe a Conservative creation.

    So Starmer isn't doing the greatest job of clearing up the mess created by the Conservatives...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,320
    Tisza leader Peter Magyar isn’t some warm and cuddly kumbaya liberal.

    He's centre-right but he’s managed to assemble a large coalition who want rid of Orban .

    As he was originally in Fidesz it’s possible that he could get some votes there and not just rely on increased turnout from previous non-voters .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    edited April 12
    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    Latest Hungarian turnout at 1 PM .

    54.14%

    2022 40%

    2002 which had the original record 42.82%

    Budapest county now in the lead , turnout at 56.77% .

    Fidesz strongest county from 2022 lagging far behind at 47.6% .

    They’ve turned the mayors against us!

    This Fidesz mayor at the village of Bócsa, Bács-Kiskun county (aka Orange County due to its large Fidesz electorate) announced voting for Tisza in a surprise Facebook post. Unbelievable!

    https://x.com/tothcsabatibor/status/2043239468631486578?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    It reaches a point in a collapsing autocracy where the agents of the old regime turn their coats. We may be at that point with Orban.

    What is peculiar is how invested Trump and Vance are in Orban. Magyar is pretty firmly on the right, nativist, traditionalist wing of politics. I can see why Putin supports Orban, but why Trump and Vance? Ah, I seem to have answered my own question.
    They hate losing.

    That's why Trump still has some difficulty dealing with the shellacking Biden gave him.

    And all the court judgements against him.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,833

    The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Are they clearly better than Reform? I find little in the way of difference in their policy platforms, mostly the difference is the personality cult of Faragism.

  • I have just been to maybe the most astounding classical ruins… anywhere. Because of their insane location

    A free cup of virtual fresh pomegranate juice if anyone can guess where this is. Nada googlie

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    nico67 said:

    Tisza leader Peter Magyar isn’t some warm and cuddly kumbaya liberal.

    He's centre-right but he’s managed to assemble a large coalition who want rid of Orban .

    Sounds fine to me. What's his stance on licking Putin's toes?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760
    nico67 said:

    Tisza leader Peter Magyar isn’t some warm and cuddly kumbaya liberal.

    He's centre-right but he’s managed to assemble a large coalition who want rid of Orban .

    As he was originally in Fidesz it’s possible that he could get some votes there and not just rely on increased turnout from previous non-voters .

    Basically he is a Hungarian Farage and not a Hungarian Lowe. Hopefully he's less Putin adjacent than Farage.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,914
    Leon said:

    I have just been to maybe the most astounding classical ruins… anywhere. Because of their insane location

    A free cup of virtual fresh pomegranate juice if anyone can guess where this is. Nada googlie

    I'm guessing Termessos on the basis your driver got lost.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,320
    Ratters said:

    nico67 said:

    Tisza leader Peter Magyar isn’t some warm and cuddly kumbaya liberal.

    He's centre-right but he’s managed to assemble a large coalition who want rid of Orban .

    As he was originally in Fidesz it’s possible that he could get some votes there and not just rely on increased turnout from previous non-voters .

    The election is about democracy against autocracy. Not left against right.
    Yes that’s why Magyar has the best chance in 16 years to remove Orban. I’ve read more about Hungary and its voting system in the last few weeks than in my entire life !
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    Leon said:

    I have just been to maybe the most astounding classical ruins… anywhere. Because of their insane location

    A free cup of virtual fresh pomegranate juice if anyone can guess where this is. Nada googlie

    Guessing where it is without a photo is some feat? Or are we supposed to deduce from the 'insane location' parT?

    I'm assuming it's not the gatehouse foundations on Newent Road in Gloucester.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858

    nico67 said:

    Tisza leader Peter Magyar isn’t some warm and cuddly kumbaya liberal.

    He's centre-right but he’s managed to assemble a large coalition who want rid of Orban .

    As he was originally in Fidesz it’s possible that he could get some votes there and not just rely on increased turnout from previous non-voters .

    Basically he is a Hungarian Farage and not a Hungarian Lowe. Hopefully he's less Putin adjacent than Farage.
    Magyar is more a Hungarian Cameron to Orban's Farage
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,519
    Leon said:

    I have just been to maybe the most astounding classical ruins… anywhere. Because of their insane location

    A free cup of virtual fresh pomegranate juice if anyone can guess where this is. Nada googlie

    Ephesus?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

    If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

    If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

    Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

    So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
    Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
    Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
    It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
    Less so now, for example, Yougov have found 45% of LD voters would tactically vote for a Tory incumbent in a seat only the Conservatives or Reform could win, more than the 29% who would stay LD.

    30% of Labour voters would also tactically vote Tory to beat Reform, only slightly less than the 35% who would stay Labour. Greens are less likely to do so but even with them 25% of Green voters would hold their nose and vote Tory to beat Reform, even if 55% would still vote Green

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54117-what-is-the-tactical-voting-landscape-in-february-2026
    They won't do that if Badenoch says she would support a Reform government. The only way she can gain tactical votes is distancing herself as far as possible from Faragism. That however loses her own Faragist tendency.

    She is in a very vulnerable position to that squeeze.
    Badenoch has never said she would support a Reform government or do any pact with Farage.

    Most of the Faragist tendency in the Tories have already left for Reform. Albeit Cleverly would definitely never do any deal with Farage even if Reform won most seats in a hung parliament and therefore would get even more anti Reform tactical votes than Kemi
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,504

    The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
  • The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
    They cut thousands of police officers. They should apologise.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,221
    edited April 12

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

    If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

    If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

    Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

    So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
    Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
    Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
    It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
    "Unfairly". Did you live between 2010 and 2024?
    Given they had to deal with Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, cost of living crisis, it is looking like a golden age of governance compared to Starmer's Labour!
    Austerity was a Conservative Party choice. We are currently reaping the rewards of austerity. Make of that as you will.

    Brexit was an invention of the Conservative Party and considered a price worth paying for a Boris Johnson premiership. We are currently reaping the rewards of Brexit.

    Conservative mismanagement of COViD is off the scale. PPE corruption, and the criminally incompetent and absurdly expensive wage relief schemes will live with us for decades.

    Disastrous Liz Truss, whose Chancellor crashed the economy and created the cost of living crisis was I believe a Conservative creation.

    So Starmer isn't doing the greatest job of clearing up the mess created by the Conservatives...
    I heard some utter shite posted here before but I've never read a post quite so nakedly spurious that they tried to place the responsibility for the COL crisis on the minibudget kerfuffle. Is there even a sort of twisted logic to how that sort of could have been the truth in another universe or is it just some form of word game? Hats off either way.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488

    The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
    They cut thousands of police officers. They should apologise.
    Isn't that an offence? Assault with a deadly weapon?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,949
    edited April 12
    Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has urged the US and Iran "to find a way through", after initial peace talks between Iran and the US finished without an agreement to end the war.

    Sir Keir warned against "further escalation" in the Middle East, after the negotiations between the two sides in Pakistan concluded in the early hours of Sunday. Downing Street said the prime minister discussed the talks - which the UK is not involved in - with the Sultan of Oman in a phone call on Sunday.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3dlmdl1v57o
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,221

    The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
    They cut thousands of police officers. They should apologise.
    Do you think that police numbers are so low that when hundreds of kids are literally filming themselves vandalising and looting stores and posting it on social media, they only have the manpower to make two arrests?

    Or do you think the masterly inactivity might have some other causes.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,446
    Taz said:

    Will Richard Tice be resigning? After all be called for Rayner to resign when she didn’t pay her taxes.

    It looks like taxes were paid but incorrectly. Not simply not paid.
    Not really.

    Rice has paid the correct personal tax

    But his overseas trusts will not have paid UK tax - that’s the piece that’s missing
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,835

    Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has urged the US and Iran "to find a way through"

    It almost sounds like he thinks it's a navigation problem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858

    Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has urged the US and Iran "to find a way through", after initial peace talks between Iran and the US finished without an agreement to end the war.

    Sir Keir warned against "further escalation" in the Middle East, after the negotiations between the two sides in Pakistan concluded in the early hours of Sunday. Downing Street said the prime minister discussed the talks - which the UK is not involved in - with the Sultan of Oman in a phone call on Sunday.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3dlmdl1v57o

    And Iran and the US barely even noticed
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,504

    The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
    They cut thousands of police officers. They should apologise.
    Did that have any effect ?

    And if you think more should have been spent on the police where should they have made the cuts instead ?
  • The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
    They cut thousands of police officers. They should apologise.
    Do you think that police numbers are so low that when hundreds of kids are literally filming themselves vandalising and looting stores and posting it on social media, they only have the manpower to make two arrests?

    Or do you think the masterly inactivity might have some other causes.
    It’s not the only cause but cutting them cannot have helped. Surely even you can agree about that.

    What was the point in cutting them in the first place? What did it achieve?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,949
    edited April 12

    Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has urged the US and Iran "to find a way through"

    It almost sounds like he thinks it's a navigation problem.
    Needs to stop using Apple Maps and switch to Waze.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,221

    Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has urged the US and Iran "to find a way through", after initial peace talks between Iran and the US finished without an agreement to end the war.

    Sir Keir warned against "further escalation" in the Middle East, after the negotiations between the two sides in Pakistan concluded in the early hours of Sunday. Downing Street said the prime minister discussed the talks - which the UK is not involved in - with the Sultan of Oman in a phone call on Sunday.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3dlmdl1v57o

    Thank goodness we have Sir Keir's wise guiding hand on the tiller of world affairs. Goodness only knows what Iran and the US would get up to without being advised to 'find a way through'. Hopefully they won't listen to the siren calls of the others urging them to arrive at an impasse.
  • The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
    They cut thousands of police officers. They should apologise.
    Did that have any effect ?

    And if you think more should have been spent on the police where should they have made the cuts instead ?
    I suspect there’s no credible way cutting police officers cannot have caused crime to go up.

    There were plenty of other areas they could have cut spending instead.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,129
    HYUFD said:

    Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has urged the US and Iran "to find a way through", after initial peace talks between Iran and the US finished without an agreement to end the war.

    Sir Keir warned against "further escalation" in the Middle East, after the negotiations between the two sides in Pakistan concluded in the early hours of Sunday. Downing Street said the prime minister discussed the talks - which the UK is not involved in - with the Sultan of Oman in a phone call on Sunday.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3dlmdl1v57o

    And Iran and the US barely even noticed
    Change barely to didn't
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,446
    viewcode said:

    Police officer: Why is that alligator driving your car ?

    Me: Sorry officer But he has to!

    Police officer: Why does he have to?

    Me: Because he's my navi-gator, I'd be lost without him!!!

    When I die, I have just two requests.

    I wish to be scattered across my favourite places.

    I do not wish to be cremated.
    (buys a large cheese grater)
    Easier to flash freeze and then apply a hammer
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,221

    The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
    They cut thousands of police officers. They should apologise.
    Do you think that police numbers are so low that when hundreds of kids are literally filming themselves vandalising and looting stores and posting it on social media, they only have the manpower to make two arrests?

    Or do you think the masterly inactivity might have some other causes.
    It’s not the only cause but cutting them cannot have helped. Surely even you can agree about that.

    What was the point in cutting them in the first place? What did it achieve?
    I am not defending the useless May administration - but wasn't she post-austerity anyway?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,320
    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,129
    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,835
    edited April 12

    Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has urged the US and Iran "to find a way through"

    It almost sounds like he thinks it's a navigation problem.
    Needs to stop using Apple Maps and switch to Waze.
    "Naval mines reported on your left. Still there?"
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

    If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

    If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

    Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

    So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
    Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
    Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
    It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
    "Unfairly". Did you live between 2010 and 2024?
    Given they had to deal with Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, cost of living crisis, it is looking like a golden age of governance compared to Starmer's Labour!
    Austerity was a Conservative Party choice. We are currently reaping the rewards of austerity. Make of that as you will.

    Brexit was an invention of the Conservative Party and considered a price worth paying for a Boris Johnson premiership. We are currently reaping the rewards of Brexit.

    Conservative mismanagement of COViD is off the scale. PPE corruption, and the criminally incompetent and absurdly expensive wage relief schemes will live with us for decades.

    Disastrous Liz Truss, whose Chancellor crashed the economy and created the cost of living crisis was I believe a Conservative creation.

    So Starmer isn't doing the greatest job of clearing up the mess created by the Conservatives...
    I heard some utter shite posted here before but I've never read a post quite so nakedly spurious that they tried to place the responsibility for the COL crisis on the minibudget kerfuffle. Is there even a sort of twisted logic to how that sort of could have been the truth in another universe or is it just some form of word game? Hats off either way.
    You are in denial. You have been since October 2022.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,320

    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,129
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
    Thank you
  • eekeek Posts: 33,914
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
    That's oil prices to the moon and a depression nailed on.

    I've no holidays booked after June for the rest of the year - suspect we will be going in an electric car to see friends in Wales and Cornwall
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
    Is there anyone left who does not think Trump is totally insane?

    He's been fighting and demanding help from his allies so the Strait can be reopened, only to close it himself?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,949
    I am blocking, no we are blocking, you ain't coming in if you aren't on the list, well my list trumps your list....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,511
    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Is the subtitle "US to move ships into range of Iranian attacks" ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,129
    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
    That's oil prices to the moon and a depression nailed on.

    I've no holidays booked after June for the rest of the year - suspect we will be going in an electric car to see friends in Wales and Cornwall
    You are very welcome to come and enjoy our beautiful Llandudno and area
  • eekeek Posts: 33,914
    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
    Is there anyone left who does not think Trump is totally insane?

    He's been fighting and demanding help from his allies so the Strait can be reopened, only to close it himself?
    He also told those same allies that he didn't need them anyway and they can't do anything useful, whilst condemning them for not contributing. So who the hell knows.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    He means any ship that has paid a toll to Iran will be arrested by the Yanks.

    And any ship that does not pay the toll will be arrested by the Iranians.

    It's hard not to see this as an act of war against the Gulf.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760
    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
    Is there anyone left who does not think Trump is totally insane?

    He's been fighting and demanding help from his allies so the Strait can be reopened, only to close it himself?
    He's probably just made gazillions insider trading the Rotterdam spot markets.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,949

    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
    Is there anyone left who does not think Trump is totally insane?

    He's been fighting and demanding help from his allies so the Strait can be reopened, only to close it himself?
    He's probably just made gazillions insider trading the Rotterdam spot markets.
    Has anybody checked PolyMarket.....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,504

    The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
    They cut thousands of police officers. They should apologise.
    Did that have any effect ?

    And if you think more should have been spent on the police where should they have made the cuts instead ?
    I suspect there’s no credible way cutting police officers cannot have caused crime to go up.

    There were plenty of other areas they could have cut spending instead.
    That depends on what the police decide to spend their resources on.

    Having even more plods patrolling through the wilds of twatterland would be unlikely to make the streets safer.

    You'd be on stronger ground to argue that more spending on the courts and prison system would have been / would be worthwhile.

    As to having more cuts elsewhere then you have to say where and then find a political party which is advocating them.

    In reality the only other places there could have been cuts would have been health, social care, welfare and the regular favourite of triple lock pensions.

    None of which are currently receiving cuts to fund more spending on the plods.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    He means any ship that has paid a toll to Iran will be arrested by the Yanks.

    And any ship that does not pay the toll will be arrested by the Iranians.

    It's hard not to see this as an act of war against the Gulf.
    Presumably the Iranians will find it harder to arrest people, their navy taking a hammering, but they can take potshots even with the US in the area, making it too risky to not pay and too risky to pay.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,284
    edited April 12
    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Dumping your girlfriend before she can do it to you.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,914
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    I have just been to maybe the most astounding classical ruins… anywhere. Because of their insane location

    A free cup of virtual fresh pomegranate juice if anyone can guess where this is. Nada googlie

    Guessing where it is without a photo is some feat? Or are we supposed to deduce from the 'insane location' parT?

    I'm assuming it's not the gatehouse foundations on Newent Road in Gloucester.
    Fair enough!

    A photo doesn’t really capture it but I’ll do my best. This is the theatre. It’s like fucking macchu picchu. You drive and then walk high into the mountains and you think there can’t be anything in this beautiful wilderness and then suddenly there’s an entire city NOT Greek NOT Roman but with temples and tombs and shops and a theatre poised on a cliff about a kilometre in the air with summits all around and you can see the distant Mediterranean

    This is just one corner of the theatre. The majestic views go all around

    It’s gob smacking

    I need ten photos to capture the drama but this will have to do


    So my guess of Termessos was correct.
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    I have just been to maybe the most astounding classical ruins… anywhere. Because of their insane location

    A free cup of virtual fresh pomegranate juice if anyone can guess where this is. Nada googlie

    I'm guessing Termessos on the basis your driver got lost.
    Mind you it wasn't difficult - you said you were in Antalya and the other options are too obvious..

    Got to ask what Hotel are you staying at because if you are in that direction - its probably the one I've stayed in many times...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794

    The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
    They cut thousands of police officers. They should apologise.
    Did that have any effect ?

    And if you think more should have been spent on the police where should they have made the cuts instead ?
    I suspect there’s no credible way cutting police officers cannot have caused crime to go up.

    There were plenty of other areas they could have cut spending instead.
    That depends on what the police decide to spend their resources on.

    Having even more plods patrolling through the wilds of twatterland would be unlikely to make the streets safer.

    You'd be on stronger ground to argue that more spending on the courts and prison system would have been / would be worthwhile.

    As to having more cuts elsewhere then you have to say where and then find a political party which is advocating them.

    In reality the only other places there could have been cuts would have been health, social care, welfare and the regular favourite of triple lock pensions.

    None of which are currently receiving cuts to fund more spending on the plods.

    If the really big budgets are untouchable, or only minimally touched, other areas take a hit even if not actively reduced, by not increasing as much demand.

    Look at local government - they cannot afford adult social care and SEND increases, to that takes up an ever increasing share of the overall budget, then people get mad that their council doesn't seem to do anything because most people paying don't (yet) use the services that take up most of the budget.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,833
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
    Lol.

    "You're not blocking the Strait, we are!"

    When are the 12 year olds going to stop running the US?
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,104

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
    That's oil prices to the moon and a depression nailed on.

    I've no holidays booked after June for the rest of the year - suspect we will be going in an electric car to see friends in Wales and Cornwall
    You are very welcome to come and enjoy our beautiful Llandudno and area
    I loved our visit, especially to Portmeirion.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,446
    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    At the moment Iran has been getting revenue by selling oil to China. Trump is ending that
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Tisza leader Peter Magyar isn’t some warm and cuddly kumbaya liberal.

    He's centre-right but he’s managed to assemble a large coalition who want rid of Orban .

    As he was originally in Fidesz it’s possible that he could get some votes there and not just rely on increased turnout from previous non-voters .

    Basically he is a Hungarian Farage and not a Hungarian Lowe. Hopefully he's less Putin adjacent than Farage.
    Magyar is more a Hungarian Cameron to Orban's Farage
    I don't think that is accurate unless you are suggesting Orban and Farage have a commonality in their Trump adjacency whilst Magyar and Cameron are both Putin reticent. I hope the latter statement is correct.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,320
    edited April 12
    I do understand the logic of the blockade .

    This stops Iran exporting any oil so basically no income, it will also piss off China who might put pressure on them.

    It’s though a high risk strategy . Now there’s no way the USA can back down until Iran agrees to open the Strait fully.

    And if Iran digs in oil prices are going to go through the roof .
  • Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine
  • eekeek Posts: 33,914
    edited April 12

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
    That's oil prices to the moon and a depression nailed on.

    I've no holidays booked after June for the rest of the year - suspect we will be going in an electric car to see friends in Wales and Cornwall
    You are very welcome to come and enjoy our beautiful Llandudno and area
    We would be calling in at The Quilting Bee and Magic Bar when heading down to Beddgelert.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    I have just been to maybe the most astounding classical ruins… anywhere. Because of their insane location

    A free cup of virtual fresh pomegranate juice if anyone can guess where this is. Nada googlie

    Guessing where it is without a photo is some feat? Or are we supposed to deduce from the 'insane location' parT?

    I'm assuming it's not the gatehouse foundations on Newent Road in Gloucester.
    Fair enough!

    A photo doesn’t really capture it but I’ll do my best. This is the theatre. It’s like fucking macchu picchu. You drive and then walk high into the mountains and you think there can’t be anything in this beautiful wilderness and then suddenly there’s an entire city NOT Greek NOT Roman but with temples and tombs and shops and a theatre poised on a cliff about a kilometre in the air with summits all around and you can see the distant Mediterranean

    This is just one corner of the theatre. The majestic views go all around

    It’s gob smacking

    I need ten photos to capture the drama but this will have to do


    That's stunning. I love a good theatre, I was in Greece last year and the theatre at Epidaurus was a favourite stop.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,211
    edited April 12
    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    You speak as though Trump was in his right mind.

    Obviously, he means that between them, the USA and Iran are go to stop any ships whatsoever from getting through the Strait.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    At the moment Iran has been getting revenue by selling oil to China. Trump is ending that
    Though blockading Chinese ships doesn't strike me as a plan without drawbacks.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,511
    Glad I filled the car this morning when it was only 2 quid a litre...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    At the moment Iran has been getting revenue by selling oil to China. Trump is ending that
    Sure, but he also wants other stuff to come through not to go to China, so it's not a blockade and more setting up his own tollgate?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,949
    Just going to check on my nuclear bomb shelter down the end of the garden....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,129
    edited April 12
    eek said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
    That's oil prices to the moon and a depression nailed on.

    I've no holidays booked after June for the rest of the year - suspect we will be going in an electric car to see friends in Wales and Cornwall
    You are very welcome to come and enjoy our beautiful Llandudno and area
    We would be calling in at The Quilting Bee and Magic Bar when heading down to Beddgelert.
    My cousin, her husband, and my aunt ran the Tanronnen Inn in the late 1960's

    Tanronnen Inn https://share.google/9IswJLaGCWAspjz2L
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,211
    nico67 said:

    I do understand the logic of the blockade .

    This stops Iran exporting any oil so basically no income, it will also piss off China who might put pressure on them.

    It’s though a high risk strategy . Now there’s no way the USA can back down until Iran agrees to open the Strait fully.

    And if Iran digs in oil prices are going to go through the roof .

    You do realise it's not just Iranian oil going out through the Strait?
  • eek said:

    Leon said:

    I have just been to maybe the most astounding classical ruins… anywhere. Because of their insane location

    A free cup of virtual fresh pomegranate juice if anyone can guess where this is. Nada googlie

    I'm guessing Termessos on the basis your driver got lost.
    Sorry and bingo!!! I didn’t see your reply. You guessed even without the photo clue

    Impressive. Isn’t it incredible?! Why isn’t it better known?

    This is my job AND I love history and I’ve never heard - until today - of Termessos

    In a depressing world it’s nice to discover there are absolute wonders all around us, still, waiting to be appreciated
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,516
    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    You speak as though Trump was in his right mind.

    Obviously, he means that between them, the USA and Iran are go to stop any ships whatsoever from getting through the Strait.
    In Trumps head, the US is an oil producing nation. So cutting off any competitor must be good.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    I have just been to maybe the most astounding classical ruins… anywhere. Because of their insane location

    A free cup of virtual fresh pomegranate juice if anyone can guess where this is. Nada googlie

    I'm guessing Termessos on the basis your driver got lost.
    Sorry and bingo!!! I didn’t see your reply. You guessed even without the photo clue

    Impressive. Isn’t it incredible?! Why isn’t it better known?

    This is my job AND I love history and I’ve never heard - until today - of Termessos

    In a depressing world it’s nice to discover there are absolute wonders all around us, still, waiting to be appreciated
    It's good that even as a wide traveller you can still experience the joys of new discovery.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,104
    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
    That's oil prices to the moon and a depression nailed on.

    I've no holidays booked after June for the rest of the year - suspect we will be going in an electric car to see friends in Wales and Cornwall
    Not nailed on, just more likely.

    Given we know Trump likes to escalate to de-escalate he will probably back down in a few days.

    However long term this is will see alternative routes for oil and LNG open up and reduce the dependency on Hormuz so, long term, it could be a good thing and Iran may well have made a tactical error
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,082
    edited April 12
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

    If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

    If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

    Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

    So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
    Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
    Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
    It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
    "Unfairly". Did you live between 2010 and 2024?
    Given they had to deal with Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, cost of living crisis, it is looking like a golden age of governance compared to Starmer's Labour!
    Absolutely not. They are the cause of or have worsened almost all of our current problems. They refused to invest in the future (see: nuclear power, infrastructure, defence), let everything else crumble, and most importantly were the cause of Brexit.

    "Unfairly toxic" indeed. The Conservative Party will absolutely never get my vote.
    None so blind as those who won't see.

    For every one of you like that about the Tories, there are currently three like that about Starmer's Labour.

    Labour were voted in with a massive majority to improve on what the Tories had done. Not to make things worse.
    The assertion was the "Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate" and, well, they are. Labour's position really has nothing to do with it.
    But it does explain the polling for Reform, Greens, PC in Wales and SNP in Scotland.

    There's a plurality in this country that wants neither Tories nor Labour, though disagrees what they want instead.

    The similtaneous bloodbath of both Tories and Labour in a FPTP election is going to be chaos. I don't expect it to be possible to form a stable government afterwards.
    The country needs PR. Perhaps all the non Labour and Tory parties can vote together to ensure that we don’t have to suffer incompetent Tory and Labour governments pushing through policies that only help their own supporters. They’ve had 100 years of buggins turn. Enough!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
    That's oil prices to the moon and a depression nailed on.

    I've no holidays booked after June for the rest of the year - suspect we will be going in an electric car to see friends in Wales and Cornwall
    Given we know Trump likes to escalate to de-escalate he will probably back down in a few days.
    Yes, I think people underestimate how much he loves being able to influence thins on a whim immediately. It's why he loved to change tariffs day to day based on if people were nice to him, if there are actual deals and agreements in place it constrains him somewhat.

    Which is why sucking up to him is both necessary, but ineffective, since he won't remember it the next time he wants to show his personal authority.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s happening . The US is going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz !

    Link ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt
    That's oil prices to the moon and a depression nailed on.

    I've no holidays booked after June for the rest of the year - suspect we will be going in an electric car to see friends in Wales and Cornwall
    However long term this is will see alternative routes for oil and LNG open up and reduce the dependency on Hormuz so, long term, it could be a good thing and Iran may well have made a tactical error
    Not much comfort to the world in the short to medium term though.

    As for Iran, given the circumstances they presumably calculated it was the only card they had left to play - they had the chance to play it before but had not, possibly for the reasons you set out.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,082

    Just going to check on my nuclear bomb shelter down the end of the garden....

    At least living near Faslane, I won’t have to worry about surviving a nuclear holocaust.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,339

    The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
    They cut thousands of police officers. They should apologise.
    Do you think that police numbers are so low that when hundreds of kids are literally filming themselves vandalising and looting stores and posting it on social media, they only have the manpower to make two arrests?

    Or do you think the masterly inactivity might have some other causes.
    It’s not the only cause but cutting them cannot have helped. Surely even you can agree about that.

    What was the point in cutting them in the first place? What did it achieve?
    I am not defending the useless May administration - but wasn't she post-austerity anyway?
    Theresa May cut thousands of police as Home Secretary, under Cameron and Osborne's Plan A austerity.

    Boris's 2019 election ran against this, pledging to recruit thousands of police. Running against your own party's record is a feature of British politics.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,511
    @abuaardvark.bsky.social‬

    Trump: open the Straits
    Iran: no
    Trump: you are totally destroyed we won
    Iran: we’re good
    Trump: we don’t need the damn Straits
    Iran: ok cool
    Trump: someone help
    World: new phone who dis
    Trump: the Straits will open themselves
    Iran: lol no
    Trump: we will blockade the Straits
    Iran: um ok thanks
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

    If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

    If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

    Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

    So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
    Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
    Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
    It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
    "Unfairly". Did you live between 2010 and 2024?
    Given they had to deal with Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, cost of living crisis, it is looking like a golden age of governance compared to Starmer's Labour!
    Absolutely not. They are the cause of or have worsened almost all of our current problems. They refused to invest in the future (see: nuclear power, infrastructure, defence), let everything else crumble, and most importantly were the cause of Brexit.

    "Unfairly toxic" indeed. The Conservative Party will absolutely never get my vote.
    None so blind as those who won't see.

    For every one of you like that about the Tories, there are currently three like that about Starmer's Labour.

    Labour were voted in with a massive majority to improve on what the Tories had done. Not to make things worse.
    The assertion was the "Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate" and, well, they are. Labour's position really has nothing to do with it.
    But it does explain the polling for Reform, Greens, PC in Wales and SNP in Scotland.

    There's a plurality in this country that wants neither Tories nor Labour, though disagrees what they want instead.

    The similtaneous bloodbath of both Tories and Labour in a FPTP election is going to be chaos. I don't expect it to be possible to form a stable government afterwards.
    The country needs PR. Perhaps all the non Labour and Tory parties can vote together to ensure that we don’t have to suffer incompetent Tory and Labour governments pushing through policies that only help their own supporters. They’ve had 100 years of buggins turn. Enough!
    And Reform and the Greens and LDs and SNP won't reward their supporters? Don't be naive.

    If we had PR neither Reform nor the Greens could form a government without Tory or Labour backing anyway
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,833
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
    No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.

    I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.

    Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    edited April 12

    The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
    They cut thousands of police officers. They should apologise.
    Do you think that police numbers are so low that when hundreds of kids are literally filming themselves vandalising and looting stores and posting it on social media, they only have the manpower to make two arrests?

    Or do you think the masterly inactivity might have some other causes.
    It’s not the only cause but cutting them cannot have helped. Surely even you can agree about that.

    What was the point in cutting them in the first place? What did it achieve?
    I am not defending the useless May administration - but wasn't she post-austerity anyway?
    Theresa May cut thousands of police as Home Secretary, under Cameron and Osborne's Plan A austerity.

    Boris's 2019 election ran against this, pledging to recruit thousands of police. Running against your own party's record is a feature of British politics.
    I particularly liked Truss's version, as she ran on the 'we shouldn't have got rid of Boris' and also 'we need to completely change the economic direction from Boris'.

    Of course, people were pretending at the the time that Boris had been unable to do anything about Rishi whilst the latter was Chancellor, even though he appointed him from junior position to replace Javid and surely had some power over the man (indeed, the other suggestion was Boris had been just about to change direction - what rotten timing, eh?)
  • @Andy_JS and @williamglenn don’t think Trump is insane. To answer the question.
  • The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
    They cut thousands of police officers. They should apologise.
    Do you think that police numbers are so low that when hundreds of kids are literally filming themselves vandalising and looting stores and posting it on social media, they only have the manpower to make two arrests?

    Or do you think the masterly inactivity might have some other causes.
    It’s not the only cause but cutting them cannot have helped. Surely even you can agree about that.

    What was the point in cutting them in the first place? What did it achieve?
    I am not defending the useless May administration - but wasn't she post-austerity anyway?
    Theresa May cut thousands of police as Home Secretary, under Cameron and Osborne's Plan A austerity.

    Boris's 2019 election ran against this, pledging to recruit thousands of police. Running against your own party's record is a feature of British politics.
    So again I ask, why did we cut them? What on earth were they thinking?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,129
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
    No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.

    I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.

    Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
    Thinking on this, maybe Trump's military consider it a safer option than taking Kharg Island

    I assume all ships will be uninsurable for the risk

    Mayhem to economies worldwide
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,576
    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

    If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

    If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

    Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

    So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
    Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
    Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
    It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
    It's the vibe.

    Many Tories remind them of people they despise in their everyday lives.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,511
    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,104
    Scott_xP said:

    @abuaardvark.bsky.social‬

    Trump: open the Straits
    Iran: no
    Trump: you are totally destroyed we won
    Iran: we’re good
    Trump: we don’t need the damn Straits
    Iran: ok cool
    Trump: someone help
    World: new phone who dis
    Trump: the Straits will open themselves
    Iran: lol no
    Trump: we will blockade the Straits
    Iran: um ok thanks

    What a fucking idiot.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,129
    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Boarded ?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,027
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
    No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.

    I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.

    Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
    It's very much in the "if I can't play with the toy then nobody can!" type tantrum that my 3-year old is still sometimes susceptible to.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,082

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

    If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

    If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

    Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

    So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
    Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
    Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
    It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
    It's the vibe.

    Many Tories remind them of people they despise in their everyday lives.
    Although not as much as those that defected to Reform. Having said that, I don’t know many people as obnoxious as Jenrick.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,104
    edited April 12
    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    War between China and the US 👍

    The Chinese should send warships to escort the tankers and if the US engages with them give it them with both barrels.
This discussion has been closed.