Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
If Trump gets angry about countries cutting deals with Iran to allow their own tankers through the straits, maybe he will start enforcing the blockade instead to make it all or nothing.
"It’s called all in, and all out... We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like or whatever it is. It’s going to be all or none."
Starmer's Coalition of the "not very willing to be involved" will be right behind you Donald...
Coalition of the "fine, we'll send a single boat and a senior officer as a token gesture, jeez"
We could send a boat crewed with all the superfluous admirals.
I assume most haven't been on a boat in years, I doubt they'd know port from starboard.
I found out yesterday that “starboard” comes from the Viking word for the tiller on their ships which was always on the right. I had until then assumed it was something to do with the side of a ship where stars were observed from for navigation purposes. Every day is a school day.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
If Trump gets angry about countries cutting deals with Iran to allow their own tankers through the straits, maybe he will start enforcing the blockade instead to make it all or nothing.
"It’s called all in, and all out... We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like or whatever it is. It’s going to be all or none."
Starmer's Coalition of the "not very willing to be involved" will be right behind you Donald...
Coalition of the "fine, we'll send a single boat and a senior officer as a token gesture, jeez"
We could send a boat crewed with all the superfluous admirals.
I assume most haven't been on a boat in years, I doubt they'd know port from starboard.
I found out yesterday that “starboard” comes from the Viking word for the tiller on their ships which was always on the right. I had until then assumed it was something to do with the side of a ship where stars were observed from for navigation purposes. Every day is a school day.
It was only in the 19th Century that Port supplanted Larboard for the left hand side of the ship, due to the obvious potential for confusion with Starboard.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
They need to stop doing this. Parliament isn't an optional extra: Parliamentary oversight is the heart of British democracy. It conveys legitimacy. If they can't convince the HOC and HOL, they haven't got a mandate.
You will recall my argument that Starmer is unfit to be PM. This is exhibit X in a series of lots.
If Trump gets angry about countries cutting deals with Iran to allow their own tankers through the straits, maybe he will start enforcing the blockade instead to make it all or nothing.
"It’s called all in, and all out... We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like or whatever it is. It’s going to be all or none."
Dubai sending Sheikh Ital-a-bout to negotiate
Iran deciding aye-a-toll-ah or no-a-toll-ah on ships passing through Hormuz
Does anyone have any ideas why my Galaxy S21 phone will load the Politicalbetting site but will not load any comments. This is a recent problem. It used to load OK, I have not changed anything.
Thanks.
No but other people have made the same complaint over the last few days, often with a spontaneous fix.
So, I'm not the only one, and it's a site problem. The site works fine on my Acer laptop.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
And all Farage has to do is make it clear to the EU that if and when elected he will reverse this in exactly the same way. The issue for Starmer is not his own party or even the people - he has little interest in what they think after all. His problem is that as long as the threat of a Reform victory is realistic, the EU will simply not trust the UK to stick to what they promise.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
And all Farage has to do is make it clear to the EU that if and when elected he will reverse this in exactly the same way. The issue for Starmer is not his own party or even the people - he has little interest in what they think after all. His problem is that as long as the threat of a Reform victory is realistic, the EU will simply not trust the UK to stick to what they promise.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
What would be the point? When the despised Starmer is replaced by the much loved Farage all this would be repealed and as a nation we would become Trump/ Putin's b1tch.
What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.
Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.
I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.
Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
It fucks everyone from India to Bangladesh to Japan & SK. This is America alienating every SEasian ally they need against China. China a country with 9 months of oil in reserve. How much oil do we hold? How much jet fuel?
Who benefits from Iran controlling the Strait? There's a theory doing the rounds that the Gulf states wouldn't accept the Iran toll anyway and would instead wait for prices to go up and force the world's hand to act.
Well lets blockade it then! And when they start starving in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan what is going to happen next? You know we import near 50% of our calories, yes?
America is done and we should detach ourselves from the pariah states that inflicted this catastrophe on the world.
Are you happy with Iran having control of the Strait of Hormuz? Do you think that is a situation that can be maintained permanently? What is needed is an international agreement to get it fully opened and a flushing out of those countries (Russia, China?) who are a roadblock to that.
I predict a quick shift from "Iran blockading Hormuz is great because it humiliates Trump" to "Trump blockading Hormuz is wicked because of all the people who will die".
Neither is good, but my immediate reaction would be I'm unclear how this will move the dial that much on resolving things in a permanent way, but for a Trump action it is far from the craziest he's ever done.
If you want to avoid troops on the ground, then ensuring Iran cannot benefit from the closure of the Straits of Hormuz is far from a stupid idea.
The problem is this: the Iranian government is not subject to the same democratic pressures that -say- the US is. So, their leadership may well shrug their shoulders and say "we only have to endure until November, at which point Trump will be neutered."
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
If Starmer doesn't agree to send minesweepers soon, we can add responsibility for a global famine to his list of crimes against humanity.
Don't be ridiculous.
Starmer has about as much influence, and therefore responsibility, as to what happens in this crisis as the Prime Minister of Lesotho.
We are spectators. Spectators about to be punched in the face by both teams playing, but spectators nonetheless.
I'm not sure that Starmer has yet reached Lesotho heights of influence!
What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.
Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.
I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.
Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
It fucks everyone from India to Bangladesh to Japan & SK. This is America alienating every SEasian ally they need against China. China a country with 9 months of oil in reserve. How much oil do we hold? How much jet fuel?
Who benefits from Iran controlling the Strait? There's a theory doing the rounds that the Gulf states wouldn't accept the Iran toll anyway and would instead wait for prices to go up and force the world's hand to act.
Well lets blockade it then! And when they start starving in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan what is going to happen next? You know we import near 50% of our calories, yes?
America is done and we should detach ourselves from the pariah states that inflicted this catastrophe on the world.
Are you happy with Iran having control of the Strait of Hormuz? Do you think that is a situation that can be maintained permanently? What is needed is an international agreement to get it fully opened and a flushing out of those countries (Russia, China?) who are a roadblock to that.
I predict a quick shift from "Iran blockading Hormuz is great because it humiliates Trump" to "Trump blockading Hormuz is wicked because of all the people who will die".
Neither is good, but my immediate reaction would be I'm unclear how this will move the dial that much on resolving things in a permanent way, but for a Trump action it is far from the craziest he's ever done.
If you want to avoid troops on the ground, then ensuring Iran cannot benefit from the closure of the Straits of Hormuz is far from a stupid idea.
The problem is this: the Iranian government is not subject to the same democratic pressures that -say- the US is. So, their leadership may well shrug their shoulders and say "we only have to endure until November, at which point Trump will be neutered."
Iran can wait for its money for much longer than the world can wait for its fuel.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
When are we likely to see shortages?
As far as oil is concerned, we shouldn't as it is sourced (I'm told) from the US, Norway and Libya.
What no one seems able to know or say out loud is what proportion of the oil which was intended for the UK was sold in transit to China, South Korea and other Asian countries whose dependence on Gulf supplies is much greater.
That is more likely to determine if and when we will see any supply issues.
Up here in rural Derbyshire, E10 unleaded is 154.9p at the local garage with diesel at 187.9p per litre.
I don't see petrol being an issue except in terms of price. We are actually self sufficient in petrol.
Diesel, heating oil and aviation fuel are far more serious. About 70% of our aviation fuel is imported with 50% coming from Kuwait, Saudi and UAE. For Diesel we import about 60%.
This is a really good UK Government briefing on hydrocarbon self sufficiency in OECD countries.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
If Starmer doesn't agree to send minesweepers soon, we can add responsibility for a global famine to his list of crimes against humanity.
Don't be ridiculous.
Starmer has about as much influence, and therefore responsibility, as to what happens in this crisis as the Prime Minister of Lesotho.
We are spectators. Spectators about to be punched in the face by both teams playing, but spectators nonetheless.
I'm not sure that Starmer has yet reached Lesotho heights of influence!
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs ƒinte By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
If the Green vote draws heavily from Corbyn supporters then these are people who are quite happy to overlook Brexit and were quite happy with Corbyn's ambiguity (I am being kind) if it means voting for a non-centrist left-wing Labour alternative. Additionaly it shores up continued support from white working-class for Reform and the Tories so I'm not sure how these guys are going to implode. It might get some support from LD's. Wahoo.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
Suspect it will look and feel rather different, even if the economic effect is much the same.
In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).
For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
One thing that hasn't been focused on. How long will it take for the Gulf countries to be able to re-route everything without the SoH?
So... that's happening to an extent already.
Before the war, about 15 million barrels per day was transitted the Straits.
Now, Saudi Arabia is sending 5 million (rising to 7 million) across the desert to the Red Sea via the Petroline pipeline. (That said, before the Straits were blocked, this pipeline was taking 2 million, so that's only a net 3 to 5 million.)
The problem is now not the pipeline, but the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. That is only capable of handling about 4.5-5m boe/d. There are plans to jerry rig something up, but I don't know how far that's got.
And Abu Dhabi and co have the ADCOP (Habshan–Fujairah) pipeline. This was doing about a million boe/d before the Straits closed, and probably can be pushed to 1.8m.
It is also worth noting that the Iranians also have a pipeline that bypasses the Straits (Goreh-Jask), but as far as I am aware, that has -other than some test cargoes 18 months ago- has never been operationalized.
If the Straits were going to remain closed for a year, I have little doubt, that pipeline oil could be raised to north of 10 million barrels. Simply: it's worth spending the money to eliminate the bottlneck, and it's just empty desert, and pipelines are 90% prefabricated.
The bigger issue is probably gas, though.
You can pipe gas. But you need a liquification plant if you want to export it via ships to Europe or Japan or Korea. And building liquification plants is expensive and time consuming. Realistically, if you started today, you could probably get one up and running at Yabu in five years. IF (and it's a big IF) Shell and Exxon invested a massive amount of time and money, and paid up to jump to the top of all the suppliers queues: because the big issue is that liquification requires a lot of expensive kit, and the leadtimes on some of it can be 5 to 8 years. (And that's before you install it.)
So... oil on a one year view, a problem, but not an insurmountable one: we'll take our knocks, but they aren't fatal.
Natural gas, on the other hand, is a massive issue. And for countries like the UK who depend on it so much for power generation, it is going to be a major pain.
Does anyone have any ideas why my Galaxy S21 phone will load the Politicalbetting site but will not load any comments. This is a recent problem. It used to load OK, I have not changed anything.
Thanks.
@Alisdair. It's not your phone, its the site's verification system which is blocking people. To get round it you need to go to the vanilla site (vf.politicalbetting.com) and sign in there. That will then accept you as verified for both the Vanilla site and the main PB comments site.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
Suspect it will look and feel rather different, even if the economic effect is much the same.
In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).
For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
I am also one of those who loved lockdown. But I suspect those of us who have that view are from a very privileged minority in terms of work, family, gardens and access to open spaces. We need to be self aware enough to realise that for millions of people it was a very different experience.
Does anyone have any ideas why my Galaxy S21 phone will load the Politicalbetting site but will not load any comments. This is a recent problem. It used to load OK, I have not changed anything.
Thanks.
@Alisdair. It's not your phone, its the site's verification system which is blocking people. To get round it you need to go to the vanilla site (vf.politicalbetting.com) and sign in there. That will then accept you as verified for both the Vanilla site and the main PB comments site.
By the way, although it is not such an immediate issue, those thinking that the issues with hydrocarbon supply are unalloyed good news for renewables should take a look at how dependent that industry is on helium.
30% of the world's supply of the gas comes from one plant in Qatar.
One thing that hasn't been focused on. How long will it take for the Gulf countries to be able to re-route everything without the SoH?
So... that's happening to an extent already.
Before the war, about 15 million barrels per day was transitted the Straits.
Now, Saudi Arabia is sending 5 million (rising to 7 million) across the desert to the Red Sea via the Petroline pipeline. (That said, before the Straits were blocked, this pipeline was taking 2 million, so that's only a net 3 to 5 million.)
The problem is now not the pipeline, but the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. That is only capable of handling about 4.5-5m boe/d. There are plans to jerry rig something up, but I don't know how far that's got.
And Abu Dhabi and co have the ADCOP (Habshan–Fujairah) pipeline. This was doing about a million boe/d before the Straits closed, and probably can be pushed to 1.8m.
It is also worth noting that the Iranians also have a pipeline that bypasses the Straits (Goreh-Jask), but as far as I am aware, that has -other than some test cargoes 18 months ago- has never been operationalized.
If the Straits were going to remain closed for a year, I have little doubt, that pipeline oil could be raised to north of 10 million barrels. Simply: it's worth spending the money to eliminate the bottlneck, and it's just empty desert, and pipelines are 90% prefabricated.
The bigger issue is probably gas, though.
You can pipe gas. But you need a liquification plant if you want to export it via ships to Europe or Japan or Korea. And building liquification plants is expensive and time consuming. Realistically, if you started today, you could probably get one up and running at Yabu in five years. IF (and it's a big IF) Shell and Exxon invested a massive amount of time and money, and paid up to jump to the top of all the suppliers queues: because the big issue is that liquification requires a lot of expensive kit, and the leadtimes on some of it can be 5 to 8 years. (And that's before you install it.)
So... oil on a one year view, a problem, but not an insurmountable one: we'll take our knocks, but they aren't fatal.
Natural gas, on the other hand, is a massive issue. And for countries like the UK who depend on it so much for power generation, it is going to be a major pain.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs ƒinte By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
If the Green vote draws heavily from Corbyn supporters then these are people who are quite happy to overlook Brexit and were quite happy with Corbyn's ambiguity (I am being kind) if it means voting for a non-centrist left-wing Labour alternative. Additionaly it shores up continued support from white working-class for Reform and the Tories so I'm not sure how these guys are going to implode. It might get some support from LD's. Wahoo.
It is worth noting that Green voters are not the same as recent members.
What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.
Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.
I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.
Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
It fucks everyone from India to Bangladesh to Japan & SK. This is America alienating every SEasian ally they need against China. China a country with 9 months of oil in reserve. How much oil do we hold? How much jet fuel?
Who benefits from Iran controlling the Strait? There's a theory doing the rounds that the Gulf states wouldn't accept the Iran toll anyway and would instead wait for prices to go up and force the world's hand to act.
Well lets blockade it then! And when they start starving in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan what is going to happen next? You know we import near 50% of our calories, yes?
America is done and we should detach ourselves from the pariah states that inflicted this catastrophe on the world.
Are you happy with Iran having control of the Strait of Hormuz? Do you think that is a situation that can be maintained permanently? What is needed is an international agreement to get it fully opened and a flushing out of those countries (Russia, China?) who are a roadblock to that.
I predict a quick shift from "Iran blockading Hormuz is great because it humiliates Trump" to "Trump blockading Hormuz is wicked because of all the people who will die".
Neither is good, but my immediate reaction would be I'm unclear how this will move the dial that much on resolving things in a permanent way, but for a Trump action it is far from the craziest he's ever done.
If you want to avoid troops on the ground, then ensuring Iran cannot benefit from the closure of the Straits of Hormuz is far from a stupid idea.
The problem is this: the Iranian government is not subject to the same democratic pressures that -say- the US is. So, their leadership may well shrug their shoulders and say "we only have to endure until November, at which point Trump will be neutered."
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs ƒinte By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
If the Green vote draws heavily from Corbyn supporters then these are people who are quite happy to overlook Brexit and were quite happy with Corbyn's ambiguity (I am being kind) if it means voting for a non-centrist left-wing Labour alternative. Additionaly it shores up continued support from white working-class for Reform and the Tories so I'm not sure how these guys are going to implode. It might get some support from LD's. Wahoo.
It is worth noting that Green voters are not the same as recent members.
I am aware, but having that policy and it being a primary motivator are different things, which is what I was trying to get at. Green voters are there for something radical that Starmer will never provide. Green voters aren't going to vote Labour because only they can deliver it, partly because it's not salient enough as we saw in 2017 and 2019, but I'd bet they're quite happy with permanent opposition. They can promise things they never have to deliver, eg in Scotland shutting down all the prisons, without ever having the difficulty of delivering.
What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.
Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.
I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.
Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
It fucks everyone from India to Bangladesh to Japan & SK. This is America alienating every SEasian ally they need against China. China a country with 9 months of oil in reserve. How much oil do we hold? How much jet fuel?
Who benefits from Iran controlling the Strait? There's a theory doing the rounds that the Gulf states wouldn't accept the Iran toll anyway and would instead wait for prices to go up and force the world's hand to act.
Well lets blockade it then! And when they start starving in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan what is going to happen next? You know we import near 50% of our calories, yes?
America is done and we should detach ourselves from the pariah states that inflicted this catastrophe on the world.
Are you happy with Iran having control of the Strait of Hormuz? Do you think that is a situation that can be maintained permanently? What is needed is an international agreement to get it fully opened and a flushing out of those countries (Russia, China?) who are a roadblock to that.
I predict a quick shift from "Iran blockading Hormuz is great because it humiliates Trump" to "Trump blockading Hormuz is wicked because of all the people who will die".
Neither is good, but my immediate reaction would be I'm unclear how this will move the dial that much on resolving things in a permanent way, but for a Trump action it is far from the craziest he's ever done.
If you want to avoid troops on the ground, then ensuring Iran cannot benefit from the closure of the Straits of Hormuz is far from a stupid idea.
The problem is this: the Iranian government is not subject to the same democratic pressures that -say- the US is. So, their leadership may well shrug their shoulders and say "we only have to endure until November, at which point Trump will be neutered."
And the world economy utterly ****ed.
Fox News: You said hundreds of super tankers are headed to the Gulf of America to buy oil and gas from the US. What can you tell us about that?
Trump: Well, I can tell you that it used to be called the Gulf of Mexico. Now it's called the Gulf of America because of me. One of my little sidelines. People are so happy. I must tell you, I was thinking about calling it the Gulf of Trump. https://x.com/factpostnews/status/2043338185137115340
Is "clean out the strait" the new "drain the swamp"? Has Trump considered combining the two and draining the Strait?
"Boil the ocean"
Our ocean is going to cool, and sooner than expected. The Atlantic Meridonal Overturning Circulation is weakening at a faster rate than previously thought.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs ƒinte By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
If the Green vote draws heavily from Corbyn supporters then these are people who are quite happy to overlook Brexit and were quite happy with Corbyn's ambiguity (I am being kind) if it means voting for a non-centrist left-wing Labour alternative. Additionaly it shores up continued support from white working-class for Reform and the Tories so I'm not sure how these guys are going to implode. It might get some support from LD's. Wahoo.
It is worth noting that Green voters are not the same as recent members.
I am aware, but having that policy and it being a primary motivator are different things, which is what I was trying to get at. Green voters are there for something radical that Starmer will never provide. Green voters aren't going to vote Labour because only they can deliver it, partly because it's not salient enough as we saw in 2017 and 2019, but I'd bet they're quite happy with permanent opposition. They can promise things they never have to deliver, eg in Scotland shutting down all the prisons, without ever having the difficulty of delivering.
I think the propensity for Green voters to vote tactically to prevent a Reform MP is very high. In many areas that will be to Labours benefit, in others LD.
Fidesz is already accusing Tisza of electoral fraud .
I’d take this as a sign they think they’ve lost and are preparing the ground to do a Trump .
Must be very effective fraud to overcome the power of 16 years of Fidesz ensuring everyone is scrupulously honest in public administration.
Yes. I never quite understand how an opposition can rig the ballot. Seems the Democrats managed it when not in power, but inexplicably failed to pull off the same trick when in control of the government. Spooky.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs ƒinte By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
If the Green vote draws heavily from Corbyn supporters then these are people who are quite happy to overlook Brexit and were quite happy with Corbyn's ambiguity (I am being kind) if it means voting for a non-centrist left-wing Labour alternative. Additionaly it shores up continued support from white working-class for Reform and the Tories so I'm not sure how these guys are going to implode. It might get some support from LD's. Wahoo.
It is worth noting that Green voters are not the same as recent members.
I am aware, but having that policy and it being a primary motivator are different things, which is what I was trying to get at. Green voters are there for something radical that Starmer will never provide. Green voters aren't going to vote Labour because only they can deliver it, partly because it's not salient enough as we saw in 2017 and 2019, but I'd bet they're quite happy with permanent opposition. They can promise things they never have to deliver, eg in Scotland shutting down all the prisons, without ever having the difficulty of delivering.
I think the propensity for Green voters to vote tactically to prevent a Reform MP is very high. In many areas that will be to Labours benefit, in others LD.
Given that many ostensible Green voters from the current surge will by definition have recently been supporters of other parties, and perhaps therefore capable of being pushed to tactical voting.
Former Arsenal midfielder Samir Nasri is reportedly under investigation by French tax officials — and it’s all because of his Deliveroo habits.
According to French outlet Les Echos, the ex-Arsenal, Man City and France star is suspected of actually living in Paris, even though he’s officially registered as a resident in Dubai. The suspicion apparently started after it emerged he made 212 Deliveroo orders to a Paris address in 2022. If proven, Nasri could be hit with a tax bill of around £4.8 million
Fidesz is already accusing Tisza of electoral fraud .
I’d take this as a sign they think they’ve lost and are preparing the ground to do a Trump .
Must be very effective fraud to overcome the power of 16 years of Fidesz ensuring everyone is scrupulously honest in public administration.
Yes. I never quite understand how an opposition can rig the ballot. Seems the Democrats managed it when not in power, but inexplicably failed to pull off the same trick when in control of the government. Spooky.
The usual explanation for the latter is that the GOP surge was just so massive even the Dems could not pull off a fix, though that doesn't explain the first fix (they did not all happen in Dem run states after all).
It is very sad that even in established democracies there is less and less acceptance of losing, with partisanship then rising on both sides.
Either a) some sides are just rejecting the acceptability of losing power and poisoning the minds of millions as to the democratic process, or b) there is genuine democratic backsliding in formerly stable democracies.
Either way that is a very bad sign.
I don't think we're immune, though I think we are not there yet.
Is "clean out the strait" the new "drain the swamp"? Has Trump considered combining the two and draining the Strait?
"Boil the ocean"
Our ocean is going to cool, and sooner than expected. The Atlantic Meridonal Overturning Circulation is weakening at a faster rate than previously thought.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs ƒinte By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
If the Green vote draws heavily from Corbyn supporters then these are people who are quite happy to overlook Brexit and were quite happy with Corbyn's ambiguity (I am being kind) if it means voting for a non-centrist left-wing Labour alternative. Additionaly it shores up continued support from white working-class for Reform and the Tories so I'm not sure how these guys are going to implode. It might get some support from LD's. Wahoo.
It is worth noting that Green voters are not the same as recent members.
I am aware, but having that policy and it being a primary motivator are different things, which is what I was trying to get at. Green voters are there for something radical that Starmer will never provide. Green voters aren't going to vote Labour because only they can deliver it, partly because it's not salient enough as we saw in 2017 and 2019, but I'd bet they're quite happy with permanent opposition. They can promise things they never have to deliver, eg in Scotland shutting down all the prisons, without ever having the difficulty of delivering.
I think the propensity for Green voters to vote tactically to prevent a Reform MP is very high. In many areas that will be to Labours benefit, in others LD.
I agree with the point about tactical voting but that's quite different from Brixian's prediction that the EU policy puts pressure on the Green vote, or that it causes the Tories and Reform to implode for some reason I can't comprehend, and somewhat removed from it. The tactical voters will tactically vote irrespective of this.
It is very sad that even in established democracies there is less and less acceptance of losing, with partisanship then rising on both sides.
Either a) some sides are just rejecting the acceptability of losing power and poisoning the minds of millions as to the democratic process, or b) there is genuine democratic backsliding in formerly stable democracies.
Either way that is a very bad sign.
I don't think we're immune, though I think we are not there yet.
It's the future if techbros and billionaires get their way.
Which they often do of course. I'm not some natural revolutionary, but the power of international business entities and their sometimes messianic weirdo controllers (looking at you, Musk and Zuckerberg) does seem, shall we say, a tad high.
They're not content to just make all the money, they want to change the way we live - in a way that means we have to pay them more money forever.
Whereas I feel like Bezos at least is just an arsehole who sees human beings as numbers on a spreadsheet. Standard CEO stuff.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
Suspect it will look and feel rather different, even if the economic effect is much the same.
In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).
For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
I am also one of those who loved lockdown. But I suspect those of us who have that view are from a very privileged minority in terms of work, family, gardens and access to open spaces. We need to be self aware enough to realise that for millions of people it was a very different experience.
Senior lawyers all over LinkedIn were happily predicting the death of the office from their 4 bedrooms houses in the GreenBelt. Trainees and NQs sharing their kitchen tables with flatmates and family were less thrilled. My wife’s journey from teacher to dog groomer completed at the time which made it less than ideal for me too.
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz
In short, the maximum the Iranian regime is willing to offer does not come close to the minimum the U.S. administration is demanding.
As long as both sides believe they hold the upper hand, and therefore see no need to compromise, the prospects for escalation will outweigh the chances for de-escalation. From the Iranian perspective in particular, there is little indication of a willingness to bend.
Under these conditions, the path forward is far more likely to lead to confrontation than to agreement.
What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.
Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.
I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.
Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
It fucks everyone from India to Bangladesh to Japan & SK. This is America alienating every SEasian ally they need against China. China a country with 9 months of oil in reserve. How much oil do we hold? How much jet fuel?
Who benefits from Iran controlling the Strait? There's a theory doing the rounds that the Gulf states wouldn't accept the Iran toll anyway and would instead wait for prices to go up and force the world's hand to act.
Well lets blockade it then! And when they start starving in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan what is going to happen next? You know we import near 50% of our calories, yes?
America is done and we should detach ourselves from the pariah states that inflicted this catastrophe on the world.
Are you happy with Iran having control of the Strait of Hormuz? Do you think that is a situation that can be maintained permanently? What is needed is an international agreement to get it fully opened and a flushing out of those countries (Russia, China?) who are a roadblock to that.
I predict a quick shift from "Iran blockading Hormuz is great because it humiliates Trump" to "Trump blockading Hormuz is wicked because of all the people who will die".
Neither is good, but my immediate reaction would be I'm unclear how this will move the dial that much on resolving things in a permanent way, but for a Trump action it is far from the craziest he's ever done.
If you want to avoid troops on the ground, then ensuring Iran cannot benefit from the closure of the Straits of Hormuz is far from a stupid idea.
The problem is this: the Iranian government is not subject to the same democratic pressures that -say- the US is. So, their leadership may well shrug their shoulders and say "we only have to endure until November, at which point Trump will be neutered."
And the world economy utterly ****ed.
Fox News: You said hundreds of super tankers are headed to the Gulf of America to buy oil and gas from the US. What can you tell us about that?
Trump: Well, I can tell you that it used to be called the Gulf of Mexico. Now it's called the Gulf of America because of me. One of my little sidelines. People are so happy. I must tell you, I was thinking about calling it the Gulf of Trump. https://x.com/factpostnews/status/2043338185137115340
ANYONE factoring in what China or Russia might do now to help Iran with this naval blockade? This is what happens when you send in real estate guys (with serious conflict of interests) to negotiate complex geopolitical issues that should have been dealt with serious diplomats.
The BBC has this: "The reason behind the long queues is partly due to the high turnout but also, under Hungarian electoral law, voters can choose to go to polling stations in other cities and vote for candidates in their hometown. That means thousands of extra voters have been turning up at polling stations particularly in big cities such as Budapest."
If the high turnout is predominantly in big cities, isn't that bad for Orban?
Because they are much more likely to ally with Orban than Magyar. (That said, they are also not entirely stupid. If they see Orban having been hammered, but prop him up anyway, that's a very risky play.)
New: The UK will *not* be involved in President Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
A government spokesperson says: “We continue to support freedom of navigation and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is urgently needed to support the global economy and the cost of living back home.
“The Strait of Hormuz must not be subject to tolling.
"We are urgently working with France and other partners to put together a wide coalition to protect freedom of navigation.”
New: The UK will *not* be involved in President Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
A government spokesperson says: “We continue to support freedom of navigation and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is urgently needed to support the global economy and the cost of living back home.
“The Strait of Hormuz must not be subject to tolling.
"We are urgently working with France and other partners to put together a wide coalition to protect freedom of navigation.”
Er - does that mean we're going to take on the US Navy?
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
Suspect it will look and feel rather different, even if the economic effect is much the same.
In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).
For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
I am also one of those who loved lockdown. But I suspect those of us who have that view are from a very privileged minority in terms of work, family, gardens and access to open spaces. We need to be self aware enough to realise that for millions of people it was a very different experience.
I loved lockdown, because I live in a big house with a massive garden which I regularly worked from, I had fast broadband, I was saving loads of money by not commuting, the lease on my car ended in May 2020, which also gave me another massive saving, but more importantly it kept my family safe which was the most important thing for me.
However I found it stressful because I couldn't see my colleagues or my other half for over a year.
I found it utterly difficult from the winter of 2020, and I had my second jab in February 2021 and was desperate for the nightmare to end.
New: The UK will *not* be involved in President Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
A government spokesperson says: “We continue to support freedom of navigation and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is urgently needed to support the global economy and the cost of living back home.
“The Strait of Hormuz must not be subject to tolling.
"We are urgently working with France and other partners to put together a wide coalition to protect freedom of navigation.”
Er - does that mean we're going to take on the US Navy?
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
New: The UK will *not* be involved in President Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
A government spokesperson says: “We continue to support freedom of navigation and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is urgently needed to support the global economy and the cost of living back home.
“The Strait of Hormuz must not be subject to tolling.
"We are urgently working with France and other partners to put together a wide coalition to protect freedom of navigation.”
Er - does that mean we're going to take on the US Navy?
Comments
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
You will recall my argument that Starmer is unfit to be PM. This is exhibit X in a series of lots.
Instead we’ll get some late surveys which were conducted before today .
The problem is this: the Iranian government is not subject to the same democratic pressures that -say- the US is. So, their leadership may well shrug their shoulders and say "we only have to endure until November, at which point Trump will be neutered."
Many thanks for the article Robert!
Official results in English: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos
Government TV: https://www.youtube.com/live/GqT-VRWJUBg?si=3zSW95tdynB2GmC-
Opposition TV: https://www.youtube.com/live/bQvLR768Ueo
Telex data center: https://telex.hu/melleklet/valasztas-2026/adatkozpont?state=19.5,47.0752;5.64;0;0;;;participation;2026;0;1;1;;;0;-1;0;compact;5
Thanks,
DC
Diesel, heating oil and aviation fuel are far more serious. About 70% of our aviation fuel is imported with 50% coming from Kuwait, Saudi and UAE. For Diesel we import about 60%.
This is a really good UK Government briefing on hydrocarbon self sufficiency in OECD countries.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68da6feac487360cc70c9e9a/Diversity_of_supply_for_oil_and_oil_products_in_OECD_countries_in_2024.pdf
In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).
For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
Load vf.politicalbetting.com, then politicalbetting.com and it works normally therafter, even when vf.politicalbetting.com is closed.
Don't ask me why.
Before the war, about 15 million barrels per day was transitted the Straits.
Now, Saudi Arabia is sending 5 million (rising to 7 million) across the desert to the Red Sea via the Petroline pipeline. (That said, before the Straits were blocked, this pipeline was taking 2 million, so that's only a net 3 to 5 million.)
The problem is now not the pipeline, but the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. That is only capable of handling about 4.5-5m boe/d. There are plans to jerry rig something up, but I don't know how far that's got.
And Abu Dhabi and co have the ADCOP (Habshan–Fujairah) pipeline. This was doing about a million boe/d before the Straits closed, and probably can be pushed to 1.8m.
It is also worth noting that the Iranians also have a pipeline that bypasses the Straits (Goreh-Jask), but as far as I am aware, that has -other than some test cargoes 18 months ago- has never been operationalized.
If the Straits were going to remain closed for a year, I have little doubt, that pipeline oil could be raised to north of 10 million barrels. Simply: it's worth spending the money to eliminate the bottlneck, and it's just empty desert, and pipelines are 90% prefabricated.
The bigger issue is probably gas, though.
You can pipe gas. But you need a liquification plant if you want to export it via ships to Europe or Japan or Korea. And building liquification plants is expensive and time consuming. Realistically, if you started today, you could probably get one up and running at Yabu in five years. IF (and it's a big IF) Shell and Exxon invested a massive amount of time and money, and paid up to jump to the top of all the suppliers queues: because the big issue is that liquification requires a lot of expensive kit, and the leadtimes on some of it can be 5 to 8 years. (And that's before you install it.)
So... oil on a one year view, a problem, but not an insurmountable one: we'll take our knocks, but they aren't fatal.
Natural gas, on the other hand, is a massive issue. And for countries like the UK who depend on it so much for power generation, it is going to be a major pain.
30% of the world's supply of the gas comes from one plant in Qatar.
The Green Party has an explicit Rejoin policy.
https://greenparty.org.uk/about/our-manifesto/a-fairer-greener-world/
He ensured it was a Ballot-on.
https://x.com/Arsenal/status/2042956913810223299
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos
Fox News: You said hundreds of super tankers are headed to the Gulf of America to buy oil and gas from the US. What can you tell us about that?
Trump: Well, I can tell you that it used to be called the Gulf of Mexico. Now it's called the Gulf of America because of me. One of my little sidelines. People are so happy. I must tell you, I was thinking about calling it the Gulf of Trump.
https://x.com/factpostnews/status/2043338185137115340
https://x.com/SkySportsPL/status/2043373462002045144
https://x.com/BBCLondonNews/status/2043347177200656784
Police have issued a warning after suspected poisoned meat was found in two west London green spaces, leaving animals seriously ill and dead.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz7738
Still, fossil fuels, hey?
Seems the Democrats managed it when not in power, but inexplicably failed to pull off the same trick when in control of the government.
Spooky.
Significant.
Lawyers for Reform UK donor Ben Delo say that referring to his criminal conviction is a breach of privacy law, with no "public interest".
If highlighting the criminal records of those bankrolling UK political parties is not in the public interest, what is?
https://x.com/FraserNelson/status/2042881360927363074
Former Arsenal midfielder Samir Nasri is reportedly under investigation by French tax officials — and it’s all because of his Deliveroo habits.
According to French outlet Les Echos, the ex-Arsenal, Man City and France star is suspected of actually living in Paris, even though he’s officially registered as a resident in Dubai. The suspicion apparently started after it emerged he made 212 Deliveroo orders to a Paris address in 2022. If proven, Nasri could be hit with a tax bill of around £4.8 million
Mail
Reluctant? WTF. Complete misunderstanding of the role and purpose of NATO.
It's the future if techbros and billionaires get their way.
Is there a right for convicted criminals who get involved in politics to pretend that they're not ?
Either a) some sides are just rejecting the acceptability of losing power and poisoning the minds of millions as to the democratic process, or b) there is genuine democratic backsliding in formerly stable democracies.
Either way that is a very bad sign.
I don't think we're immune, though I think we are not there yet.
Man, @YBarddCwsc is going to be pissed.
Rob Ford
*Cough*
Tisza 55
Fidesz 38
The far right MH 5%
They're not content to just make all the money, they want to change the way we live - in a way that means we have to pay them more money forever.
Whereas I feel like Bezos at least is just an arsehole who sees human beings as numbers on a spreadsheet. Standard CEO stuff.
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
@citrinowicz
In short, the maximum the Iranian regime is willing to offer does not come close to the minimum the U.S. administration is demanding.
As long as both sides believe they hold the upper hand, and therefore see no need to compromise, the prospects for escalation will outweigh the chances for de-escalation. From the Iranian perspective in particular, there is little indication of a willingness to bend.
Under these conditions, the path forward is far more likely to lead to confrontation than to agreement.
https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2043368403587481910
OnePlanetLeft
@HadiJudy76313
ANYONE factoring in what China or Russia might do now to help Iran with this naval blockade? This is what happens when you send in real estate guys (with serious conflict of interests) to negotiate complex geopolitical issues that should have been dealt with serious diplomats.
https://x.com/HadiJudy76313/status/2043379872693629278
"The reason behind the long queues is partly due to the high turnout but also, under Hungarian electoral law, voters can choose to go to polling stations in other cities and vote for candidates in their hometown.
That means thousands of extra voters have been turning up at polling stations particularly in big cities such as Budapest."
If the high turnout is predominantly in big cities, isn't that bad for Orban?
Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
Three questions:
1) Would the US stop Chinese-flagged vessels going in-and-out the Persian Gulf? And if the tankers don’t stop?
2) What’s the plan if the Houthis of Yemen blockade the Bab al-Mandeb?
3) Would the U.S. stop Iranian tankers loading at Jask (outside the SoH)?
https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2043357926421680268
Because they are much more likely to ally with Orban than Magyar. (That said, they are also not entirely stupid. If they see Orban having been hammered, but prop him up anyway, that's a very risky play.)
New: The UK will *not* be involved in President Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
A government spokesperson says: “We continue to support freedom of navigation and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is urgently needed to support the global economy and the cost of living back home.
“The Strait of Hormuz must not be subject to tolling.
"We are urgently working with France and other partners to put together a wide coalition to protect freedom of navigation.”
However I found it stressful because I couldn't see my colleagues or my other half for over a year.
I found it utterly difficult from the winter of 2020, and I had my second jab in February 2021 and was desperate for the nightmare to end.
Has Trump said something else?