Keir Starmer has yet to authorise the seizure of Russian tankers in the English Channel over fears the sailors will be able to claim asylum
It's thought that Putin has sent agents on board so they can spy on Britain from within
Isn't that a fairly convaluted way to get someone into Britain? I would have thought that Russian intelligence services would have done a decent job of getting their operatives passports from other countries.
They used sequential numbers on the last batch of fake passports which was how one of their assassination units was broken open
Incredible. We never mentioned regime change, no siree. Never a word. They wont have nukes. Yes they do. The strait will just magically open up as they wont make any money.
How in his head has there 'already been regime change'? I know there's a new Supreme Leader, but come on.
I've mentioned before my theory that's it's the politics of 15th Century Europe. A change of Monarch is a change of regime in his mind. See also how personal fawning, slights and gestures by leaders determine his attitude to their nations.
Incredible. We never mentioned regime change, no siree. Never a word. They wont have nukes. Yes they do. The strait will just magically open up as they wont make any money.
How in his head has there 'already been regime change'? I know there's a new Supreme Leader, but come on.
Incredibly that is the argument they are now making. Hegseth used it as well the other day.
On that basis everytime we dispose of a PM, be that by a general election or their parliamentary party shoving them aside, we by these new US government definitions have a "regime change". The fact that it's the same government, same party, and mostly the same policies apparently does not matter.
Chagos has gone so surely everyone is happy right?
Labour had a bash at giving away Gibraltar in the 1990s. It's a pattern.
(I would love to hear a proper argument for paying the Mauritians for Chagos from the government, just for interest's sake. But they seem unable, or unwilling, to give one.)
I kind of feel for Starmer on this one. Not that I supported the Chagos Bill (the moralistic argument was underwhelming considering neither we nor Mauritius cared about the Chagossians, and the technical legal argument seemed a bit thin, and it's all just about who lets the USA have a base there anyway), but opponents were begging Trump to withdraw support as he came into office and he didn't, then he said he might, then didnt again, do Starmer has just been jerked about.
Incredible. We never mentioned regime change, no siree. Never a word. They wont have nukes. Yes they do. The strait will just magically open up as they wont make any money.
How in his head has there 'already been regime change'? I know there's a new Supreme Leader, but come on.
Incredibly that is the argument they are now making. Hegseth used it as well the other day.
On that basis everytime we dispose of a PM, be that by a general election or their parliamentary party shoving them aside, we by these new US government definitions have a "regime change". The fact that it's the same government, same party, and mostly the same policies apparently does not matter.
America is no longer a serious country.
And rather supports my theory that they took out Khamenei principally so that they could declare victory no matter anything else that happened.
Keir Starmer has yet to authorise the seizure of Russian tankers in the English Channel over fears the sailors will be able to claim asylum
It's thought that Putin has sent agents on board so they can spy on Britain from within
Isn't that a fairly convaluted way to get someone into Britain? I would have thought that Russian intelligence services would have done a decent job of getting their operatives passports from other countries.
They used sequential numbers on the last batch of fake passports which was how one of their assassination units was broken open
We tend to have an assumption that our people are incompetent but that our enemies can never be so.
We also replaced one Khamenei with another; empowered the IRGC; did nothing for the protesters; killed over a thousand civilians, including hundreds of children; lost at least 13 US service members, alongside over 500 wounded; left Iran with enough highly enriched uranium to make 10-12 nuclear weapons; gave it greater incentive to try to build them; irreparably tarnished America’s reputation; did lasting damage to the US and world economies; depleted our arsenal of scarce missile-defence interceptors; diverted valuable military assets from other regions; empowered Russia with an oil price windfall; triggered further conflict in Lebanon; further eroded domestic and international law; and may have left Iran in control of the most valuable waterway in the world, in a position to earn tens of billions of dollars in revenue per year through tolls, while holding the world economy hostage.
Incredible. We never mentioned regime change, no siree. Never a word. They wont have nukes. Yes they do. The strait will just magically open up as they wont make any money.
How in his head has there 'already been regime change'? I know there's a new Supreme Leader, but come on.
Incredibly that is the argument they are now making. Hegseth used it as well the other day.
On that basis everytime we dispose of a PM, be that by a general election or their parliamentary party shoving them aside, we by these new US government definitions have a "regime change". The fact that it's the same government, same party, and mostly the same policies apparently does not matter.
America is no longer a serious country.
And rather supports my theory that they took out Khamenei principally so that they could declare victory no matter anything else that happened.
Trump polishing the history books. When history is written, 100 years from now, Trumps's batshittery will be (partly!) glazed over compared with his "accomplishments" (Roe vs. wade, Khomenai, the accords etc.). The batshittery will be hard to fully explain to a culturally-distant future. The concrete acheivements, such as they are, will stand.
Trump: “My Administration stands ready to use the full Economic Might of the United States to strengthen Hungary’s Economy, as we have done for our Great Allies in the past, if Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the Hungarian People ever need it. We are excited to invest in the future Prosperity that will be generated by Orbán’s continued Leadership! President DONALD J. TRUMP” https://x.com/atrupar/status/2042704252032946282
Incredible. We never mentioned regime change, no siree. Never a word. They wont have nukes. Yes they do. The strait will just magically open up as they wont make any money.
How in his head has there 'already been regime change'? I know there's a new Supreme Leader, but come on.
Incredibly that is the argument they are now making. Hegseth used it as well the other day.
On that basis everytime we dispose of a PM, be that by a general election or their parliamentary party shoving them aside, we by these new US government definitions have a "regime change". The fact that it's the same government, same party, and mostly the same policies apparently does not matter.
America is no longer a serious country.
And rather supports my theory that they took out Khamenei principally so that they could declare victory no matter anything else that happened.
Trump polishing the history books. When history is written, 100 years from now, Trumps's batshittery will be (partly!) glazed over compared with his "accomplishments" (Roe vs. wade, Khomenai, the accords etc.). The batshittery will be hard to fully explain to a culturally-distant future. The concrete acheivements, such as they are, will stand.
We also replaced one Khamenei with another; empowered the IRGC; did nothing for the protesters; killed over a thousand civilians, including hundreds of children; lost at least 13 US service members, alongside over 500 wounded; left Iran with enough highly enriched uranium to make 10-12 nuclear weapons; gave it greater incentive to try to build them; irreparably tarnished America’s reputation; did lasting damage to the US and world economies; depleted our arsenal of scarce missile-defence interceptors; diverted valuable military assets from other regions; empowered Russia with an oil price windfall; triggered further conflict in Lebanon; further eroded domestic and international law; and may have left Iran in control of the most valuable waterway in the world, in a position to earn tens of billions of dollars in revenue per year through tolls, while holding the world economy hostage.
They estimate that the max velocity on reentry will be 24,000 (plus a bit) mph, 130mph slower than the record set by Apollo 10.
They're nearly at 11,000mph, with their velocity increasing by a bit more than 1mph per second (a rate of acceleration that even my aged diesel can exceed).
Reform has however managed to put someone up in almost every ward- the highest contested wards at 99.9% - a remarkable achievement for a party with no real local government track record. I expect there are some real duds in that crowd….
Yet Restore with just 9 council candidates in May 2026 are also for example 9/1 with Bet365 to win the most seats at the next general election.
Is there any scenario that could remotely justify those odds? If not then there's a strong argument that someone somewhere is trying to manipulate the political betting markets for nefarious purposes.
Trump: “My Administration stands ready to use the full Economic Might of the United States to strengthen Hungary’s Economy, as we have done for our Great Allies in the past, if Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the Hungarian People ever need it. We are excited to invest in the future Prosperity that will be generated by Orbán’s continued Leadership! President DONALD J. TRUMP” https://x.com/atrupar/status/2042704252032946282
And quite bizarre.
Utterly Bizarre - Hungary is democracy albeit one currently led by 1 of the few people who still supports Putin..
"For the US, ceding control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran in 2026 would not be quite as swift a humiliation as the Anglo-French failure to wrest control of the Suez Canal from Egypt in 1956. But the consequences for the credibility of the Pax Americana would be similar to Suez’s consequences for the Pax Britannica."
Incredible. We never mentioned regime change, no siree. Never a word. They wont have nukes. Yes they do. The strait will just magically open up as they wont make any money.
How in his head has there 'already been regime change'? I know there's a new Supreme Leader, but come on.
Incredibly that is the argument they are now making. Hegseth used it as well the other day.
On that basis everytime we dispose of a PM, be that by a general election or their parliamentary party shoving them aside, we by these new US government definitions have a "regime change". The fact that it's the same government, same party, and mostly the same policies apparently does not matter.
America is no longer a serious country.
And rather supports my theory that they took out Khamenei principally so that they could declare victory no matter anything else that happened.
That gives a sense of forward planning that is not in evidence, they took out Khamenei for the same reason a dog licks its balls.
"For the US, ceding control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran in 2026 would not be quite as swift a humiliation as the Anglo-French failure to wrest control of the Suez Canal from Egypt in 1956. But the consequences for the credibility of the Pax Americana would be similar to Suez’s consequences for the Pax Britannica."
The main difference between the two events is that Britain and France had to give way because of the opposition of the US - clearly a world superpower.
In 2026 the US has been defeated by Iran, but Iran is no more than a regional power, it cannot constrain or contest US actions in other parts of the world.
Incredible. We never mentioned regime change, no siree. Never a word. They wont have nukes. Yes they do. The strait will just magically open up as they wont make any money.
How in his head has there 'already been regime change'? I know there's a new Supreme Leader, but come on.
Incredibly that is the argument they are now making. Hegseth used it as well the other day.
On that basis everytime we dispose of a PM, be that by a general election or their parliamentary party shoving them aside, we by these new US government definitions have a "regime change". The fact that it's the same government, same party, and mostly the same policies apparently does not matter.
America is no longer a serious country.
And rather supports my theory that they took out Khamenei principally so that they could declare victory no matter anything else that happened.
That gives a sense of forward planning that is not in evidence, they took out Khamenei for the same reason a dog licks its balls.
The only explanation that makes any sense about the whole thing is that Trump thought it would just be like Venezuela.
We also replaced one Khamenei with another; empowered the IRGC; did nothing for the protesters; killed over a thousand civilians, including hundreds of children; lost at least 13 US service members, alongside over 500 wounded; left Iran with enough highly enriched uranium to make 10-12 nuclear weapons; gave it greater incentive to try to build them; irreparably tarnished America’s reputation; did lasting damage to the US and world economies; depleted our arsenal of scarce missile-defence interceptors; diverted valuable military assets from other regions; empowered Russia with an oil price windfall; triggered further conflict in Lebanon; further eroded domestic and international law; and may have left Iran in control of the most valuable waterway in the world, in a position to earn tens of billions of dollars in revenue per year through tolls, while holding the world economy hostage.
24 US Reaper drones at $56.5m each is quite a hit, although cheaper than having between 24 and 48 air crew needing rescue from within Iran I guess. Given how expensive the one so far proved.
We also replaced one Khamenei with another; empowered the IRGC; did nothing for the protesters; killed over a thousand civilians, including hundreds of children; lost at least 13 US service members, alongside over 500 wounded; left Iran with enough highly enriched uranium to make 10-12 nuclear weapons; gave it greater incentive to try to build them; irreparably tarnished America’s reputation; did lasting damage to the US and world economies; depleted our arsenal of scarce missile-defence interceptors; diverted valuable military assets from other regions; empowered Russia with an oil price windfall; triggered further conflict in Lebanon; further eroded domestic and international law; and may have left Iran in control of the most valuable waterway in the world, in a position to earn tens of billions of dollars in revenue per year through tolls, while holding the world economy hostage.
24 US Reaper drones at $56.5m each is quite a hit, although cheaper than having between 24 and 48 air crew needing rescue from within Iran I guess. Given how expensive the one so far proved.
Yes, it does look as if Iran has some anti-air capability still.
The only explanation that makes any sense about the whole thing is that Trump thought it would just be like Venezuela.
Agreed. Even though anybody with a child’s atlas could’ve pointed out the likelihood that Hormuz would become an issue, together with attacks on the Gulf States. Frankly the decision making process has been utterly moronic.
The Iranian regime is completely dire on so many levels, but they’re not idiots, and they had a strategy. The US has had superb tactical military effectiveness but all to no affect. As Sun Tzu said, tactics without strategy is just the noise before defeat. And defeat is a 33% increase in the cost of filling a car in Ohio, and right now the US has little idea how to change that.
I think we'd be better off if Palestine was absorbed into its neighbouring Arab nations:
- As a part of Israel, both the West Bank and especially Gasa are treated horrendously. Of course in the latter case there's two sides to things, but Israel's response to October 7th went so far past the line that looking back it looks like a dot. Israel is never going to be a fair and just ruler of this land.
- The two state solution is seemingly dead and I'm not sure there's any way to revive it. Israel won't allow Gaza, in particular, the power and rights of a nation state.
- Israel will never let Palestinians be equal citizens within the wider borders of Israel.
- So absorbing them into Egypt and Jordan would allow the Palestinians to have equal rights within a country to other citizens. It's not an independent Palestine, but the example of Kurdistan is a better one than the seats quo.
Egypt and Jordan don’t want them. The Palestinians tried to overthrow the Jordanian monarchy after the ‘67 war. Not sure specifically about Egypt but there is no love lost
A Zero state solution looks more likely after this Israeli apartheid/ genocidal regime has inevitably crashed (and burned all its support) in the next decade or so.
"For the US, ceding control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran in 2026 would not be quite as swift a humiliation as the Anglo-French failure to wrest control of the Suez Canal from Egypt in 1956. But the consequences for the credibility of the Pax Americana would be similar to Suez’s consequences for the Pax Britannica."
The main difference between the two events is that Britain and France had to give way because of the opposition of the US - clearly a world superpower.
In 2026 the US has been defeated by Iran, but Iran is no more than a regional power, it cannot constrain or contest US actions in other parts of the world.
The rest of the 20th century would have been very different if Britain and France had resisted US pressure and stuck to their guns.
We also replaced one Khamenei with another; empowered the IRGC; did nothing for the protesters; killed over a thousand civilians, including hundreds of children; lost at least 13 US service members, alongside over 500 wounded; left Iran with enough highly enriched uranium to make 10-12 nuclear weapons; gave it greater incentive to try to build them; irreparably tarnished America’s reputation; did lasting damage to the US and world economies; depleted our arsenal of scarce missile-defence interceptors; diverted valuable military assets from other regions; empowered Russia with an oil price windfall; triggered further conflict in Lebanon; further eroded domestic and international law; and may have left Iran in control of the most valuable waterway in the world, in a position to earn tens of billions of dollars in revenue per year through tolls, while holding the world economy hostage.
24 US Reaper drones at $56.5m each is quite a hit, although cheaper than having between 24 and 48 air crew needing rescue from within Iran I guess. Given how expensive the one so far proved.
Yes, it does look as if Iran has some anti-air capability still.
The only explanation that makes any sense about the whole thing is that Trump thought it would just be like Venezuela.
Agreed. Even though anybody with a child’s atlas could’ve pointed out the likelihood that Hormuz would become an issue, together with attacks on the Gulf States. Frankly the decision making process has been utterly moronic.
The Iranian regime is completely dire on so many levels, but they’re not idiots, and they had a strategy. The US has had superb tactical military effectiveness but all to no affect. As Sun Tzu said, tactics without strategy is just the noise before defeat. And defeat is a 33% increase in the cost of filling a car in Ohio, and right now the US has little idea how to change that.
Continuing with a ceasefire without Hormuz open is absolutely batshit crazy.
Tensions are spilling out everywhere - never trust seperatists.
The world's largest known group of wild chimpanzees has split and been locked in a vicious "civil war" for the last eight years, according to researchers. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr71lkzv49po
The only explanation that makes any sense about the whole thing is that Trump thought it would just be like Venezuela.
Agreed. Even though anybody with a child’s atlas could’ve pointed out the likelihood that Hormuz would become an issue, together with attacks on the Gulf States. Frankly the decision making process has been utterly moronic.
The Iranian regime is completely dire on so many levels, but they’re not idiots, and they had a strategy. The US has had superb tactical military effectiveness but all to no affect. As Sun Tzu said, tactics without strategy is just the noise before defeat. And defeat is a 33% increase in the cost of filling a car in Ohio, and right now the US has little idea how to change that.
Continuing with a ceasefire without Hormuz open is absolutely batshit crazy.
So typical TACO really.
Well there is the nub. On Feb 27th we had free international traffic, now we don’t. If we go back to free traffic the war was a draw at best ( that’s being generous given year long damage to Qatari gas supply and other damage), if not, the US ( and the rest of us) lost, no matter what Hegseth tells himself.
Continuing with a ceasefire without Hormuz open is absolutely batshit crazy.
So typical TACO really.
Well there is the nub. On Feb 27th we had free international traffic, now we don’t. If we go back to free traffic the war was a draw at best ( that’s being generous given year long damage to Qatari gas supply and other damage), if not, the US ( and the rest of us) lost, no matter what Hegseth tells himself.
🔥 SNP would win fifth consecutive election, first with overall majority since 2011 🔥 Reform become official opposition 🔥 Labour and Tories on lowest ever 🔥 Highest number of pro-independence MSPs ever
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
Ah, whoops. Well Iran just lost something of their negotiating power.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
Very Mandy Rice-Davies of the US officials!
Though I do notice that the shipping that is going through is passing much closer to Iran, rather than the usual channel closer to Oman.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
Ah, whoops. Well Iran just lost something of their negotiating power.
Or acquired something of a cover story.
We'd love to open the Strait but we can't. Pay us and we can safely navigate you through though.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
Very Mandy Rice-Davies!
Though I do notice that the shipping that is going through is passing much closer to Iran, rather than the usual channel closer to Oman.
Kemi making gains amongst centrist swing voters who dislike both the Greens and Reform and who voted Conservative in 2019 but switched to Labour in 2024 a new Ashcroft poll finds.
'We will use the term “Centrists” to describe people who are rejecters of both the Greens and of Reform. Currently, just 7 per cent of the population fall into this category – at a time when all politicians have negative approval ratings, this may seem a surprisingly small group (even in the context of a fragmented electorate and opinion polls often showing all parties below 30 per cent). Yet when the two blocs form the only likely basis for a governing coalition after the next election (whether that is by a party cannibalising the vote in its respective bloc to win a majority, or the formation of a coalition government between parties within a bloc), a group of voters who reject the insurgent party in both the left bloc and the right bloc make the situation more complex.
What do we know about the Centrist? Among those who are likely to vote at the next election, 42 per cent intend to back the Conservatives, compared with 29 per cent for Labour and 14 per cent Lib Dem. At the 2024 general election, Labour received 40 per cent of the vote among this group, with the Tories on 35 per cent and the Lib Dems 17 per cent. In 2019, the Conservatives took nearly half of their vote (47 per cent); Labour managed just 28 per cent, and the Lib Dems 16 per cent. In other words, the Conservatives have nearly recovered to their 2019 levels of support among centrists, whereas Labour have fallen back to their 2019 performance.'
🔥 SNP would win fifth consecutive election, first with overall majority since 2011 🔥 Reform become official opposition 🔥 Labour and Tories on lowest ever 🔥 Highest number of pro-independence MSPs ever
I agree with the fear. The unionist vote being split is not a total explanation for the SNP possibly (probably) winning an overall majority, again.
And 'they won't be given a vote' is not an argument one way or another to addressing the desire for Independence.
🔥 SNP would win fifth consecutive election, first with overall majority since 2011 🔥 Reform become official opposition 🔥 Labour and Tories on lowest ever 🔥 Highest number of pro-independence MSPs ever
On a smaller voteshare than 2021 even then. Starmer and Farage have also ruled out indyref2 regardless of what happens in May so it makes sod all diffeence to Scottish undependence as Westminster will say a firm NO!
🔥 SNP would win fifth consecutive election, first with overall majority since 2011 🔥 Reform become official opposition 🔥 Labour and Tories on lowest ever 🔥 Highest number of pro-independence MSPs ever
On a smaller voteshare than 2021 even then. Starmer and Farage have also ruled out indyref2 regardless of what happens in May so it makes sod all diffeence to Scottish undependence as Westminster will say a firm NO!
Simply saying no is not a democratic way to maintain a union, against the clearly expressed wishes of the voters.
🔥 SNP would win fifth consecutive election, first with overall majority since 2011 🔥 Reform become official opposition 🔥 Labour and Tories on lowest ever 🔥 Highest number of pro-independence MSPs ever
On a smaller voteshare than 2021 even then. Starmer and Farage have also ruled out indyref2 regardless of what happens in May so it makes sod all diffeence to Scottish undependence as Westminster will say a firm NO!
With Wales going Plaid we are heading for a very fractious and ungovernable country no matter what you say
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
🔥 SNP would win fifth consecutive election, first with overall majority since 2011 🔥 Reform become official opposition 🔥 Labour and Tories on lowest ever 🔥 Highest number of pro-independence MSPs ever
On a smaller voteshare than 2021 even then. Starmer and Farage have also ruled out indyref2 regardless of what happens in May so it makes sod all diffeence to Scottish undependence as Westminster will say a firm NO!
With Wales going Plaid we are heading for a very fractious and ungovernable country no matter what you say
Plaid have made clear they will not even seek an independence referendum in their first term and would almost certainly need Labour support for a Senedd majority anyway
🔥 SNP would win fifth consecutive election, first with overall majority since 2011 🔥 Reform become official opposition 🔥 Labour and Tories on lowest ever 🔥 Highest number of pro-independence MSPs ever
On a smaller voteshare than 2021 even then. Starmer and Farage have also ruled out indyref2 regardless of what happens in May so it makes sod all diffeence to Scottish undependence as Westminster will say a firm NO!
Simply saying no is not a democratic way to maintain a union, against the clearly expressed wishes of the voters.
We live in a world where Russia has just invaded Ukraine a few decades after their union broke up.
Refusing indyref2 is a minor response by comparison, Madrid refused the Catalan nationalist government even one independence referendum in 2017 and arrested nationalist leaders after they declared UDI and imposed direct rule.
I hope the SNP don't win a majority and they still may not but if they do Westminster must be tough and firm, no indyref2 whatever the circumstance!
10m after landing, surprised there’s not already a helo over the ship.
Looks like the astronauts are happy for another half an hour!
First boat is there now.
It seems to be very important to power down the ship before they take them out.
Set against that, they must be desperate for a piss by now...
They went further from Earth than anyone has gone before and when they get back they can't disembark because the satellite phone doesn't work. Wonder who made that?
10m after landing, surprised there’s not already a helo over the ship.
Looks like the astronauts are happy for another half an hour!
First boat is there now.
It seems to be very important to power down the ship before they take them out.
Set against that, they must be desperate for a piss by now...
They went further from Earth than anyone has gone before and when they get back they can't disembark because the satellite phone doesn't work. Wonder who made that?
10m after landing, surprised there’s not already a helo over the ship.
Looks like the astronauts are happy for another half an hour!
First boat is there now.
It seems to be very important to power down the ship before they take them out.
Set against that, they must be desperate for a piss by now...
They went further from Earth than anyone has gone before and when they get back they can't disembark because the satellite phone doesn't work. Wonder who made that?
It’s more about the hydrazine from the thruster system. You really, really don’t want that in your face.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
10m after landing, surprised there’s not already a helo over the ship.
Looks like the astronauts are happy for another half an hour!
First boat is there now.
It seems to be very important to power down the ship before they take them out.
Set against that, they must be desperate for a piss by now...
They went further from Earth than anyone has gone before and when they get back they can't disembark because the satellite phone doesn't work. Wonder who made that?
It’s more about the hydrazine from the thruster system. You really, really don’t want that in your face.
They're not doing a good job of explaining why there's a delay in disembarking the astronauts on the live NASA broadcast.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
I guess the reason is for Trump to wash his hands of the disaster he has created and to stop it from tanking his approval ratings any more. It's no longer anything to do with him, as far as he's concerned.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
I guess the reason is for Trump to wash his hands of the disaster he has created and to stop it from tanking his approval ratings any more. It's no longer anything to do with him, as far as he's concerned.
Which if the Strait reopened might make a modicum of perverted sense, but its not.
Iran's "weapon" was their ability to control the Strait if the attacks continued. If the Strait is going to be controlled by them whether the attacks continue or not, there is no reason for a ceasefire.
10m after landing, surprised there’s not already a helo over the ship.
Looks like the astronauts are happy for another half an hour!
First boat is there now.
It seems to be very important to power down the ship before they take them out.
Set against that, they must be desperate for a piss by now...
They went further from Earth than anyone has gone before and when they get back they can't disembark because the satellite phone doesn't work. Wonder who made that?
It’s more about the hydrazine from the thruster system. You really, really don’t want that in your face.
They're not doing a good job of explaining why there's a delay in disembarking the astronauts on the live NASA broadcast.
Many, many people have observed that the comms for this mission are not the best.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
I guess the reason is for Trump to wash his hands of the disaster he has created and to stop it from tanking his approval ratings any more. It's no longer anything to do with him, as far as he's concerned.
Which if the Strait reopened might make a modicum of perverted sense, but its not.
Iran's "weapon" was their ability to control the Strait if the attacks continued. If the Strait is going to be controlled by them whether the attacks continue or not, there is no reason for a ceasefire.
If the US were able to stop Iran from controlling the Strait then they would have done so. The ceasefire is an acknowledgement that the US lacks that power.
Iran will now use that power to raise some money to compensate them for the damage they suffered and there doesn't seem to be much that anyone can do about that, until pipelines are built to bypass the Strait.
The decision to go to war was a huge mistake, and we will all pay for it. Maybe about a dollar per barrel of oil.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
I guess the reason is for Trump to wash his hands of the disaster he has created and to stop it from tanking his approval ratings any more. It's no longer anything to do with him, as far as he's concerned.
Which if the Strait reopened might make a modicum of perverted sense, but its not.
Iran's "weapon" was their ability to control the Strait if the attacks continued. If the Strait is going to be controlled by them whether the attacks continue or not, there is no reason for a ceasefire.
If the US were able to stop Iran from controlling the Strait then they would have done so. The ceasefire is an acknowledgement that the US lacks that power.
Iran will now use that power to raise some money to compensate them for the damage they suffered and there doesn't seem to be much they anyone can do about that, until pipelines are built to bypass the Strait.
The decision to go to war was a huge mistake, and we will all pay for it. Maybe about a dollar per barrel of oil.
There is a way to do it, keep pounding the regime until they surrender and there is regime change.
At the very least until the Strait is agreed to be reopened.
If that is not done, there is little reason not to keep hitting Iran.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
I guess the reason is for Trump to wash his hands of the disaster he has created and to stop it from tanking his approval ratings any more. It's no longer anything to do with him, as far as he's concerned.
Which if the Strait reopened might make a modicum of perverted sense, but its not.
Iran's "weapon" was their ability to control the Strait if the attacks continued. If the Strait is going to be controlled by them whether the attacks continue or not, there is no reason for a ceasefire.
If the US were able to stop Iran from controlling the Strait then they would have done so. The ceasefire is an acknowledgement that the US lacks that power.
Iran will now use that power to raise some money to compensate them for the damage they suffered and there doesn't seem to be much they anyone can do about that, until pipelines are built to bypass the Strait.
The decision to go to war was a huge mistake, and we will all pay for it. Maybe about a dollar per barrel of oil.
There is a way to do it, keep pounding the regime until they surrender and there is regime change.
At the very least until the Strait is agreed to be reopened.
If that is not done, there is little reason not to keep hitting Iran.
The conclusion is presumably that Iran was able to withstand air bombardment indefinitely, and so an open-ended air campaign would be futile,
This then leaves the option of escalating to ground operations, such as a seizure of Kharg island, to exert pressure in a different way, but they decided against that, for whatever reason.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
I guess the reason is for Trump to wash his hands of the disaster he has created and to stop it from tanking his approval ratings any more. It's no longer anything to do with him, as far as he's concerned.
Which if the Strait reopened might make a modicum of perverted sense, but its not.
Iran's "weapon" was their ability to control the Strait if the attacks continued. If the Strait is going to be controlled by them whether the attacks continue or not, there is no reason for a ceasefire.
If the US were able to stop Iran from controlling the Strait then they would have done so. The ceasefire is an acknowledgement that the US lacks that power.
Iran will now use that power to raise some money to compensate them for the damage they suffered and there doesn't seem to be much they anyone can do about that, until pipelines are built to bypass the Strait.
The decision to go to war was a huge mistake, and we will all pay for it. Maybe about a dollar per barrel of oil.
There is a way to do it, keep pounding the regime until they surrender and there is regime change.
At the very least until the Strait is agreed to be reopened.
If that is not done, there is little reason not to keep hitting Iran.
The conclusion is presumably that Iran was able to withstand air bombardment indefinitely, and so an open-ended air campaign would be futile,
This then leaves the option of escalating to ground operations, such as a seizure of Kharg island, to exert pressure in a different way, but they decided against that, for whatever reason.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
And yet they're able to allow those who pay tolls to get through, while simultaneously threatening to blow up any that don't have "approval"? 🤔
It’s looks like they’ve spammed the whole strait with mines except for the bit that passes close to Iran. Hence the ability to impose a toll.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
What reason is there for there to be a ceasefire, if the Strait remains closed?
Stupid President TACO.
I guess the reason is for Trump to wash his hands of the disaster he has created and to stop it from tanking his approval ratings any more. It's no longer anything to do with him, as far as he's concerned.
Which if the Strait reopened might make a modicum of perverted sense, but its not.
Iran's "weapon" was their ability to control the Strait if the attacks continued. If the Strait is going to be controlled by them whether the attacks continue or not, there is no reason for a ceasefire.
If the US were able to stop Iran from controlling the Strait then they would have done so. The ceasefire is an acknowledgement that the US lacks that power.
Iran will now use that power to raise some money to compensate them for the damage they suffered and there doesn't seem to be much they anyone can do about that, until pipelines are built to bypass the Strait.
The decision to go to war was a huge mistake, and we will all pay for it. Maybe about a dollar per barrel of oil.
There is a way to do it, keep pounding the regime until they surrender and there is regime change.
At the very least until the Strait is agreed to be reopened.
If that is not done, there is little reason not to keep hitting Iran.
The conclusion is presumably that Iran was able to withstand air bombardment indefinitely, and so an open-ended air campaign would be futile,
This then leaves the option of escalating to ground operations, such as a seizure of Kharg island, to exert pressure in a different way, but they decided against that, for whatever reason.
10m after landing, surprised there’s not already a helo over the ship.
Looks like the astronauts are happy for another half an hour!
First boat is there now.
It seems to be very important to power down the ship before they take them out.
Set against that, they must be desperate for a piss by now...
They went further from Earth than anyone has gone before and when they get back they can't disembark because the satellite phone doesn't work. Wonder who made that?
It’s more about the hydrazine from the thruster system. You really, really don’t want that in your face.
They're not doing a good job of explaining why there's a delay in disembarking the astronauts on the live NASA broadcast.
Kemi making gains amongst centrist swing voters who dislike both the Greens and Reform and who voted Conservative in 2019 but switched to Labour in 2024 a new Ashcroft poll finds.
'We will use the term “Centrists” to describe people who are rejecters of both the Greens and of Reform. Currently, just 7 per cent of the population fall into this category – at a time when all politicians have negative approval ratings, this may seem a surprisingly small group (even in the context of a fragmented electorate and opinion polls often showing all parties below 30 per cent). Yet when the two blocs form the only likely basis for a governing coalition after the next election (whether that is by a party cannibalising the vote in its respective bloc to win a majority, or the formation of a coalition government between parties within a bloc), a group of voters who reject the insurgent party in both the left bloc and the right bloc make the situation more complex.
What do we know about the Centrist? Among those who are likely to vote at the next election, 42 per cent intend to back the Conservatives, compared with 29 per cent for Labour and 14 per cent Lib Dem. At the 2024 general election, Labour received 40 per cent of the vote among this group, with the Tories on 35 per cent and the Lib Dems 17 per cent. In 2019, the Conservatives took nearly half of their vote (47 per cent); Labour managed just 28 per cent, and the Lib Dems 16 per cent. In other words, the Conservatives have nearly recovered to their 2019 levels of support among centrists, whereas Labour have fallen back to their 2019 performance.'
10m after landing, surprised there’s not already a helo over the ship.
Looks like the astronauts are happy for another half an hour!
First boat is there now.
It seems to be very important to power down the ship before they take them out.
Set against that, they must be desperate for a piss by now...
They went further from Earth than anyone has gone before and when they get back they can't disembark because the satellite phone doesn't work. Wonder who made that?
It’s more about the hydrazine from the thruster system. You really, really don’t want that in your face.
They're not doing a good job of explaining why there's a delay in disembarking the astronauts on the live NASA broadcast.
They're trying to work out why they've come back as three chimpanzees and an orang-utan who speak perfect English
10m after landing, surprised there’s not already a helo over the ship.
Looks like the astronauts are happy for another half an hour!
First boat is there now.
It seems to be very important to power down the ship before they take them out.
Set against that, they must be desperate for a piss by now...
They went further from Earth than anyone has gone before and when they get back they can't disembark because the satellite phone doesn't work. Wonder who made that?
It’s more about the hydrazine from the thruster system. You really, really don’t want that in your face.
They're not doing a good job of explaining why there's a delay in disembarking the astronauts on the live NASA broadcast.
Many, many people have observed that the comms for this mission are not the best.
Kemi making gains amongst centrist swing voters who dislike both the Greens and Reform and who voted Conservative in 2019 but switched to Labour in 2024 a new Ashcroft poll finds.
'We will use the term “Centrists” to describe people who are rejecters of both the Greens and of Reform. Currently, just 7 per cent of the population fall into this category – at a time when all politicians have negative approval ratings, this may seem a surprisingly small group (even in the context of a fragmented electorate and opinion polls often showing all parties below 30 per cent). Yet when the two blocs form the only likely basis for a governing coalition after the next election (whether that is by a party cannibalising the vote in its respective bloc to win a majority, or the formation of a coalition government between parties within a bloc), a group of voters who reject the insurgent party in both the left bloc and the right bloc make the situation more complex.
What do we know about the Centrist? Among those who are likely to vote at the next election, 42 per cent intend to back the Conservatives, compared with 29 per cent for Labour and 14 per cent Lib Dem. At the 2024 general election, Labour received 40 per cent of the vote among this group, with the Tories on 35 per cent and the Lib Dems 17 per cent. In 2019, the Conservatives took nearly half of their vote (47 per cent); Labour managed just 28 per cent, and the Lib Dems 16 per cent. In other words, the Conservatives have nearly recovered to their 2019 levels of support among centrists, whereas Labour have fallen back to their 2019 performance.'
Comments
At the end of SOPN day, I'm encouraged by the strength of our democracy.
Here in Newham we have 600+ people wanting to become a Councillor. Our ballot papers will be soft, strong and highly absorbing.
In my Ward we have so many candidates the local bookie is offering 1/4 odds first four places each way.
Even the mayoral candidate election will pay 1/5 odds first three places.
A change of Monarch is a change of regime in his mind.
See also how personal fawning, slights and gestures by leaders determine his attitude to their nations.
Read More: https://intdy.in/4jh5ur
On that basis everytime we dispose of a PM, be that by a general election or their parliamentary party shoving them aside, we by these new US government definitions have a "regime change". The fact that it's the same government, same party, and mostly the same policies apparently does not matter.
America is no longer a serious country.
(I would love to hear a proper argument for paying the Mauritians for Chagos from the government, just for interest's sake. But they seem unable, or unwilling, to give one.)
On the back of student loan interest rate changes.
We might as well have her in No. 10 as Starmer's Labour...
We also replaced one Khamenei with another; empowered the IRGC; did nothing for the protesters; killed over a thousand civilians, including hundreds of children; lost at least 13 US service members, alongside over 500 wounded; left Iran with enough highly enriched uranium to make 10-12 nuclear weapons; gave it greater incentive to try to build them; irreparably tarnished America’s reputation; did lasting damage to the US and world economies; depleted our arsenal of scarce missile-defence interceptors; diverted valuable military assets from other regions; empowered Russia with an oil price windfall; triggered further conflict in Lebanon; further eroded domestic and international law; and may have left Iran in control of the most valuable waterway in the world, in a position to earn tens of billions of dollars in revenue per year through tolls, while holding the world economy hostage.
https://www.ft.com/content/0cbce778-a16a-40f9-bfb0-660b91f45325
Trump: “My Administration stands ready to use the full Economic Might of the United States to strengthen Hungary’s Economy, as we have done for our Great Allies in the past, if Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the Hungarian People ever need it. We are excited to invest in the future Prosperity that will be generated by Orbán’s continued Leadership! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2042704252032946282
And quite bizarre.
https://bsky.app/profile/kristoncapps.bsky.social/post/3mj5uapoa3c2s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aviation_shootdowns_and_accidents_during_the_2026_Iran_war
https://x.com/AmbJohnBolton/status/2042727656559390789
They're nearly at 11,000mph, with their velocity increasing by a bit more than 1mph per second (a rate of acceleration that even my aged diesel can exceed).
Is there any scenario that could remotely justify those odds? If not then there's a strong argument that someone somewhere is trying to manipulate the political betting markets for nefarious purposes.
Niall Ferguson
@nfergus
"For the US, ceding control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran in 2026 would not be quite as swift a humiliation as the Anglo-French failure to wrest control of the Suez Canal from Egypt in 1956. But the consequences for the credibility of the Pax Americana would be similar to Suez’s consequences for the Pax Britannica."
https://x.com/nfergus/status/2042690647422046700
In 2026 the US has been defeated by Iran, but Iran is no more than a regional power, it cannot constrain or contest US actions in other parts of the world.
Brian Allen
@allenanalysis
🚨BREAKING: The Iranian delegation just arrived in Islamabad.
https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/2042714788288172386
The only explanation that makes any sense about the whole thing is that Trump thought it would just be like Venezuela.
Agreed. Even though anybody with a child’s atlas could’ve pointed out the likelihood that Hormuz would become an issue, together with attacks on the Gulf States. Frankly the decision making process has been utterly moronic.
The Iranian regime is completely dire on so many levels, but they’re not idiots, and they had a strategy. The US has had superb tactical military effectiveness but all to no affect. As Sun Tzu said, tactics without strategy is just the noise before defeat. And defeat is a 33% increase in the cost of filling a car in Ohio, and right now the US has little idea how to change that.
He needs the call up this summer. He’s earned it.
Low bar, admittedly.
Continuing with a ceasefire without Hormuz open is absolutely batshit crazy.
So typical TACO really.
The world's largest known group of wild chimpanzees has split and been locked in a vicious "civil war" for the last eight years, according to researchers.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr71lkzv49po
So typical TACO really.
Well there is the nub. On Feb 27th we had free international traffic, now we don’t. If we go back to free traffic the war was a draw at best ( that’s being generous given year long damage to Qatari gas supply and other damage), if not, the US ( and the rest of us) lost, no matter what Hegseth tells himself.
And then they have the GPS lock.
Said it before and I’ll say it again
The U.K. is sleepwalking towards Scottish independence
https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2042709212397212128
EXC: YouGov / Sky / Times Scottish Parliament MRP
Projection: SNP win overall majority
67 SNP - 🔼3
20 REFORM - 🔼 20
7 TORY - 🔽24
15 LABOUR - 🔽 6
11 GREENS - 🔼 2
9 LIB DEMS - 🔼 5
🔥 SNP would win fifth consecutive election, first with overall majority since 2011
🔥 Reform become official opposition
🔥 Labour and Tories on lowest ever
🔥 Highest number of pro-independence MSPs ever
Godspeed to the crew module, about to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere.
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
Though I do notice that the shipping that is going through is passing much closer to Iran, rather than the usual channel closer to Oman.
We'd love to open the Strait but we can't. Pay us and we can safely navigate you through though.
And the Americans are dumb enough to buy it.
'We will use the term “Centrists” to describe people who are rejecters of both the Greens and of Reform. Currently, just 7 per cent of the population fall into this category – at a time when all politicians have negative approval ratings, this may seem a surprisingly small group (even in the context of a fragmented electorate and opinion polls often showing all parties below 30 per cent). Yet when the two blocs form the only likely basis for a governing coalition after the next election (whether that is by a party cannibalising the vote in its respective bloc to win a majority, or the formation of a coalition government between parties within a bloc), a group of voters who reject the insurgent party in both the left bloc and the right bloc make the situation more complex.
What do we know about the Centrist? Among those who are likely to vote at the next election, 42 per cent intend to back the Conservatives, compared with 29 per cent for Labour and 14 per cent Lib Dem. At the 2024 general election, Labour received 40 per cent of the vote among this group, with the Tories on 35 per cent and the Lib Dems 17 per cent. In 2019, the Conservatives took nearly half of their vote (47 per cent); Labour managed just 28 per cent, and the Lib Dems 16 per cent. In other words, the Conservatives have nearly recovered to their 2019 levels of support among centrists, whereas Labour have fallen back to their 2019 performance.'
https://conservativehome.com/2026/04/10/lord-ashcroft-my-latest-polling-the-crucial-centrists-who-reject-both-reform-and-the-greens/
And 'they won't be given a vote' is not an argument one way or another to addressing the desire for Independence.
Godspeed and good luck.
Parachutes out!
Great day for humanity.
What a glorious moment for humanity, good job the US President has not done anything to distract from this triumph of human ingenuity.
Looks like the astronauts are happy for another half an hour!
First boat is there now.
Honestly…it’s genius. Comprehensive victory.
Refusing indyref2 is a minor response by comparison, Madrid refused the Catalan nationalist government even one independence referendum in 2017 and arrested nationalist leaders after they declared UDI and imposed direct rule.
I hope the SNP don't win a majority and they still may not but if they do Westminster must be tough and firm, no indyref2 whatever the circumstance!
Stupid President TACO.
Iran's "weapon" was their ability to control the Strait if the attacks continued. If the Strait is going to be controlled by them whether the attacks continue or not, there is no reason for a ceasefire.
Iran will now use that power to raise some money to compensate them for the damage they suffered and there doesn't seem to be much that anyone can do about that, until pipelines are built to bypass the Strait.
The decision to go to war was a huge mistake, and we will all pay for it. Maybe about a dollar per barrel of oil.
At the very least until the Strait is agreed to be reopened.
If that is not done, there is little reason not to keep hitting Iran.
This then leaves the option of escalating to ground operations, such as a seizure of Kharg island, to exert pressure in a different way, but they decided against that, for whatever reason.
Who is mad as hell and is telling social media she will spill all he knows. Which is lots.
This is what Melania is supposedly front-running.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AN79Wj552qY