Latest information on NS and I repaying monies to bereaved families. Last week I was told they were 4 weeks behind, this week its 6 weeks behind That's progress of a sort🥺🥺🥺🥺
Interesting that the Greens are down as well, for all I know that poll-to-poll changes are generally bobbins. But you have to wonder how many of that 4% could pick out Restore in an identity parade.
I don't think YouGov prompt for Restore so you have to assume the people naming them know the difference between them and Reform.
Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.
Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.
To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.
And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.
Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).
The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.
I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).
The missing relationship from your list, is that between Iran and the GCC States which surround it.
These States were not part of any war, until Iran started randomly bombing them on 28th Feb, and are determined to prevent this situation recurring in future.
Until very recently, Qatar was an Iranian ally, and the source of significant funds that ended up funding various Iranian proxies around the region, much to the disdain of their fellow GCC members. The World Cup very nearly didn’t happen, and forced the Qaratis to compromise. Now Iran is very much the enemy of everyone else in the region. Now Qatar has to rebuild significant O&G facilities.
My suspicion is that, if Iran tries to toll the Straight, the GCC will use military force to avoid the tolls.
It's high time that means we're found to avoid using the Straits.
Oh there’s also plenty of that going on in parallel.
I was in Fujairah yesterday, and there’s hundreds of lorries in queues for the ports of Fujairah and Khorfakkan on the East coast of UAE, running a land bridge to Sharjah on the West coast only 100km away.
Mostly containers rather than O&G, but there’s already one pipeline at 1.5m b/d running from Fujairah to the oil fields of Abu Dhabi.
Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.
Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.
To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.
And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.
Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).
The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.
I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).
The missing relationship from your list, is that between Iran and the GCC States which surround it.
These States were not part of any war, until Iran started randomly bombing them on 28th Feb, and are determined to prevent this situation recurring in future.
Until very recently, Qatar was an Iranian ally, and the source of significant funds that ended up funding various Iranian proxies around the region, much to the disdain of their fellow GCC members. The World Cup very nearly didn’t happen, and forced the Qaratis to compromise. Now Iran is very much the enemy of everyone else in the region. Now Qatar has to rebuild significant O&G facilities.
My suspicion is that, if Iran tries to toll the Straight, the GCC will use military force to avoid the tolls.
It's high time that means we're found to avoid using the Straits.
Oh there’s also plenty of that going on in parallel.
I was in Fujairah yesterday, and there’s hundreds of lorries in queues for the ports of Fujairah and Khorfakkan on the East coast of UAE, running a land bridge to Sharjah on the West coast only 100km away.
Mostly containers rather than O&G, but there’s already one pipeline at 1.5m b/d running from Fujairah to the oil fields of Abu Dhabi.
Until they can get 100% both in and out they need to build more.
Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.
Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.
To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.
And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.
Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).
The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.
I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).
The missing relationship from your list, is that between Iran and the GCC States which surround it.
These States were not part of any war, until Iran started randomly bombing them on 28th Feb, and are determined to prevent this situation recurring in future.
Until very recently, Qatar was an Iranian ally, and the source of significant funds that ended up funding various Iranian proxies around the region, much to the disdain of their fellow GCC members. The World Cup very nearly didn’t happen, and forced the Qaratis to compromise. Now Iran is very much the enemy of everyone else in the region. Now Qatar has to rebuild significant O&G facilities.
My suspicion is that, if Iran tries to toll the Straight, the GCC will use military force to avoid the tolls.
A case of oderint dum metuant (let them hate so long as they fear) with the GCC possibly.
The more you look at the world, the more often you realize how much healthier Ukrainian society has become when it comes to coexistence between nationalities and faiths.
We weren’t always like this. We are becoming this now — as the country is being radically transformed by revolution and by the defense against imperial Russia.
We are shedding the weight of so many remnants of the past — really fast.
I doubt the Iranian toll is legally enforceable. Legal or not we would end up with the same standoff if they tried it.
This is what I don't get from the "REJOICE" posts out there in social media world. Hormuz being open for traffic was the status quo before the war. Getting back there is not a win - and we're not back that far...
Interesting that the Greens are down as well, for all I know that poll-to-poll changes are generally bobbins. But you have to wonder how many of that 4% could pick out Restore in an identity parade.
I don't think YouGov prompt for Restore so you have to assume the people naming them know the difference between them and Reform.
They do prompt for Restore on the second page when you fill the option that you’re voting for other.
You have to go back to LBJ to find a 2 term President whose party managed to win Congress or even won one chamber of Congress in the midterms of their second term of office. So the odds were always the Republicans would lose Congress in November.
What Trump will want to avoid is the Democrats not only winning the House but the Senate with a 2/3 majority or close to it as that would not only enable his impeachment but his conviction and removal from office too. Not merely blocking his policy and legislative agenda. We are still not at that big a Democratic landslide yet
Interesting that the Greens are down as well, for all I know that poll-to-poll changes are generally bobbins. But you have to wonder how many of that 4% could pick out Restore in an identity parade.
I don't think YouGov prompt for Restore so you have to assume the people naming them know the difference between them and Reform.
From the tweet upthread;
Restore Britain and Your Party are included by YouGov for the first time
Whether that means prompting for them, or just collating the write-ins, someone else might know.
Interesting that the Greens are down as well, for all I know that poll-to-poll changes are generally bobbins. But you have to wonder how many of that 4% could pick out Restore in an identity parade.
Good poll for Farage, Reform still clearly in front but also for Kemi. Yougov now has the Conservatives a clear second ahead of Labour and the Greens so in lots of marginal wards in May they can now present themselves as the main alternative to Reform not Labour or the LDs or Greens.
A slight increase for the LDs ahead of the local elections will also please Davey but nothing significant
Interesting that the Greens are down as well, for all I know that poll-to-poll changes are generally bobbins. But you have to wonder how many of that 4% could pick out Restore in an identity parade.
I don't think YouGov prompt for Restore so you have to assume the people naming them know the difference between them and Reform.
They do prompt for Restore on the second page when you fill the option that you’re voting for other.
So you have to reject Reform first before being prompted?
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
Somebody noted that if Trump gets 25thed we end up with Vance, but that is Trump's preferred means of regime change. Keep knocking off the top guy until you reach somebody you can deal with...
I doubt the Iranian toll is legally enforceable. Legal or not we would end up with the same standoff if they tried it.
This is what I don't get from the "REJOICE" posts out there in social media world. Hormuz being open for traffic was the status quo before the war. Getting back there is not a win - and we're not back that far...
As it is an international waterway just like the channel then I would expect Iran to be in breach of maritime law and open to challenge
However, that would take years and I expect Iran to get away with it until the next crisis
I doubt the Iranian toll is legally enforceable. Legal or not we would end up with the same standoff if they tried it.
Legally, how can they charge a toll for crossing water they don’t own?
What has "legally" got to do with it ? Countries will either pay them or not. A number may well look at the cost/benefit and decide it's worthwhile.
Depending in the US approach to it, and their possible future use of sanctions, then "legally" might matter for countries like S Korea or Japan. For China, it would be completely irrelevant.
I doubt the Iranian toll is legally enforceable. Legal or not we would end up with the same standoff if they tried it.
Legally, how can they charge a toll for crossing water they don’t own?
How can we stop them if they use force? As has been rather painfully demonstrated there are not enough warships to convoy them properly.
Indeed, I was just thinking legally. They’d be enforcing a toll for passage through someone else’s territory.
I think I'm right in saying that although most of the shipping lanes are in Omani waters, there is a point where they do pass through Iranian waters. So I'm not sure that's correct.
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
Yes, and that would make him a bad president.
However, his very isolationism means he wouldn't kidnap other countries' leaders or launch random bombing campaigns or threaten to invade his neighbours or say on Twitter that he's planning to use nukes.
I hate to say it, but even allowing for Vance being a loathsome scumbag and a Russian sycophant that would be an improvement at this point.
Edit - he is alsoAFAIK unconnected to Epstein, which would also be a step up.
I doubt the Iranian toll is legally enforceable. Legal or not we would end up with the same standoff if they tried it.
Maybe yes, maybe no. Ships pay to sail past Singapore and through Egypt and Panama so this would just be another fixed cost. The market can handle known costs. It is the uncertainty of being blown out of the water that puts tankers off, as well as their insurance companies.
I doubt the Iranian toll is legally enforceable. Legal or not we would end up with the same standoff if they tried it.
Legally, how can they charge a toll for crossing water they don’t own?
What has "legally" got to do with it ? Countries will either pay them or not. A number may well look at the cost/benefit and decide it's worthwhile.
Depending in the US approach to it, and their possible future use of sanctions, then "legally" might matter for countries like S Korea or Japan. For China, it would be completely irrelevant.
If the US approve it, then it will be interesting in the North-West passage.
But the US has always believed Might is Right (albeit less than at present, and their belief in it will shrink with the number of peer advisories).
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
Yes, and that would make him a bad president.
However, his very isolationism means he wouldn't kidnap other countries' leaders or launch random bombing campaigns or threaten to invade his neighbours or say on Twitter that he's planning to use nukes.
I hate to say it, but even allowing for Vance being a loathsome scumbag and a Russian sycophant that would be an improvement at this point.
Edit - he is alsoAFAIK unconnected to Epstein, which would also be a step up.
A lot of leaders say they will concentrate on domestic issues but simply cannot resist the temptations of the international stage. Trump and Starmer succumbed, and I am sure Vance would too if given the chance.
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
Yes, and that would make him a bad president.
However, his very isolationism means he wouldn't kidnap other countries' leaders or launch random bombing campaigns or threaten to invade his neighbours or say on Twitter that he's planning to use nukes.
I hate to say it, but even allowing for Vance being a loathsome scumbag and a Russian sycophant that would be an improvement at this point.
Edit - he is alsoAFAIK unconnected to Epstein, which would also be a step up.
A lot of leaders say they will concentrate on domestic issues but simply cannot resist the temptations of the international stage. Trump and Starmer succumbed, and I am sure Vance would too if given the chance.
Yep, trotting off to Hungary to tell people how to vote doesn't suggest splendid isolationism.
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
Yes, and that would make him a bad president.
However, his very isolationism means he wouldn't kidnap other countries' leaders or launch random bombing campaigns or threaten to invade his neighbours or say on Twitter that he's planning to use nukes.
I hate to say it, but even allowing for Vance being a loathsome scumbag and a Russian sycophant that would be an improvement at this point.
Edit - he is alsoAFAIK unconnected to Epstein, which would also be a step up.
Vance is also very intelligent, would probably be the most intelligent Republican President since Nixon
The more you look at the world, the more often you realize how much healthier Ukrainian society has become when it comes to coexistence between nationalities and faiths.
We weren’t always like this. We are becoming this now — as the country is being radically transformed by revolution and by the defense against imperial Russia.
We are shedding the weight of so many remnants of the past — really fast.
Thank you, that's inspiring. Nothing like a common enemy for drawing people together.
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
Yes, and that would make him a bad president.
However, his very isolationism means he wouldn't kidnap other countries' leaders or launch random bombing campaigns or threaten to invade his neighbours or say on Twitter that he's planning to use nukes.
I hate to say it, but even allowing for Vance being a loathsome scumbag and a Russian sycophant that would be an improvement at this point.
Edit - he is alsoAFAIK unconnected to Epstein, which would also be a step up.
A lot of leaders say they will concentrate on domestic issues but simply cannot resist the temptations of the international stage. Trump and Starmer succumbed, and I am sure Vance would too if given the chance.
Yep, trotting off to Hungary to tell people how to vote doesn't suggest splendid isolationism.
I suspect he was told by Trump to go to support their 'friend' Orban, and, somewhere in the dark recesses of Trump's mind was the thought that Vance might not be as keen on the Iranian adventure as himself. Whether that thought was either rational sensible is, of course, open to doubt.
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
Yes, and that would make him a bad president.
However, his very isolationism means he wouldn't kidnap other countries' leaders or launch random bombing campaigns or threaten to invade his neighbours or say on Twitter that he's planning to use nukes.
I hate to say it, but even allowing for Vance being a loathsome scumbag and a Russian sycophant that would be an improvement at this point.
Edit - he is alsoAFAIK unconnected to Epstein, which would also be a step up.
A lot of leaders say they will concentrate on domestic issues but simply cannot resist the temptations of the international stage. Trump and Starmer succumbed, and I am sure Vance would too if given the chance.
Yep, trotting off to Hungary to tell people how to vote doesn't suggest splendid isolationism.
Hungary occupies an outsize place in MAGA mythology for some reason (Trump; Tucker C. etc).
It's probably a necessary campaign stop for Vance, and he will have been told to go there by Trump (as well as being personally sympathetic to a semi-authoritarian "Catholic" - at least in Orban's view - state).
Reform do seem to be stabilising in a few polls now.
It doesn't make sense to me
People are desperate. And their desperation will get worse as the Trump Tax effects really start to hurt.
4% for Restore as well, which is possibly why Reform have been losing VI share
Yes but Restore won't be standing candidates in most local election seats unlike Reform in May so you can probably add most of that 4% to Reform's 24% to give Reform 28%
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
Yes, and that would make him a bad president.
However, his very isolationism means he wouldn't kidnap other countries' leaders or launch random bombing campaigns or threaten to invade his neighbours or say on Twitter that he's planning to use nukes.
I hate to say it, but even allowing for Vance being a loathsome scumbag and a Russian sycophant that would be an improvement at this point.
Edit - he is alsoAFAIK unconnected to Epstein, which would also be a step up.
Vance is also very intelligent, would probably be the most intelligent Republican President since Nixon
Intelligence is good; common sense with it is a great deal better.
Fundamentally, we have such polarisation because no-one is listening to each other. So politics just becomes about a performance, both by the voters and those elected to represent us.
Fundamentally, we have such polarisation because no-one is listening to each other. So politics just becomes about a performance, both by the voters and those elected to represent us.
Social media has much to blame for polarising into tribes
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
Yes, and that would make him a bad president.
However, his very isolationism means he wouldn't kidnap other countries' leaders or launch random bombing campaigns or threaten to invade his neighbours or say on Twitter that he's planning to use nukes.
I hate to say it, but even allowing for Vance being a loathsome scumbag and a Russian sycophant that would be an improvement at this point.
Edit - he is alsoAFAIK unconnected to Epstein, which would also be a step up.
Vance is also very intelligent, would probably be the most intelligent Republican President since Nixon
George H. Bush was brighter than either of them, for all his verbal gaffes.
I'm not sure either make for great parallels though.
An interesting, unwelcome experience at the weekend. A moderately serious hypo (ie low).
I woke up in the early hours - 1am perhaps, with a nasty bruise, a skinned elbow, my bedside table broken in two, and a lens from my glasses missing (this sounds like the symptoms of the approach to Magrathea). I've no idea what happened, about a low somewhat nastier than I normally get. The liver sheds glucose as the body's Plan B which wakes you up again. I think if you don't it's a coma.
If anyone wonders slightly what it feels like. it is like that 2/3 drunk feeling when you cannot for the life of you remember your phone password. I spent 15 minutes trying to remember the 4 digit password to my pump control unit, and kept getting it wrong. The number was not there, and of course I could not think up the algorithm.
One surprise was that there was considerable difficulty undoing a small carton of juice, due to loss of motor skills. I have noticed that that before. At the I was mentally woozy enough that strategy just doesn't come into it so I didn't not really detect it .... it's glucose .... anywhere. And it was a deep enough hypo that it took 45 minutes to get back to an even keel. It then takes abotu half a day to recover - headaches and so on.
I *think* what happened was simply falling asleep after jabbing for a late supper (a classic error - and a reason to keep regular hours for a diabetic)
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
Yes, and that would make him a bad president.
However, his very isolationism means he wouldn't kidnap other countries' leaders or launch random bombing campaigns or threaten to invade his neighbours or say on Twitter that he's planning to use nukes.
I hate to say it, but even allowing for Vance being a loathsome scumbag and a Russian sycophant that would be an improvement at this point.
Edit - he is alsoAFAIK unconnected to Epstein, which would also be a step up.
Vance is also very intelligent, would probably be the most intelligent Republican President since Nixon
Apart from Bush Snr, that's an incredibly low bar.
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
Yes, and that would make him a bad president.
However, his very isolationism means he wouldn't kidnap other countries' leaders or launch random bombing campaigns or threaten to invade his neighbours or say on Twitter that he's planning to use nukes.
I hate to say it, but even allowing for Vance being a loathsome scumbag and a Russian sycophant that would be an improvement at this point.
Edit - he is alsoAFAIK unconnected to Epstein, which would also be a step up.
Vance is also very intelligent, would probably be the most intelligent Republican President since Nixon
Intelligence is good; common sense with it is a great deal better.
Both are surpassed by moral character. We need that more than anything in our leaders.
I woke up this morning and yawned contentedly and then thought “oh shit” and I rolled over to my phone to see if Trump had, in fact, dropped a nuke on Iran, while I was sleeping
An interesting, unwelcome experience at the weekend. A moderately serious hypo (ie low).
I woke up in the early hours - 1am perhaps, with a nasty bruise, a skinned elbow, my bedside table broken in two, and a lens from my glasses missing (this sounds like the symptoms of the approach to Magrathea). I've no idea what happened, about a low somewhat nastier than I normally get. The liver sheds glucose as the body's Plan B which wakes you up again. I think if you don't it's a coma.
If anyone wonders slightly what it feels like. it is like that 2/3 drunk feeling when you cannot for the life of you remember your phone password. I spent 15 minutes trying to remember the 4 digit password to my pump control unit, and kept getting it wrong. The number was not there, and of course I could not think up the algorithm.
One surprise was that there was considerable difficulty undoing a small carton of juice, due to loss of motor skills. I have noticed that that before. At the I was mentally woozy enough that strategy just doesn't come into it so I didn't not really detect it .... it's glucose .... anywhere. And it was a deep enough hypo that it took 45 minutes to get back to an even keel. It then takes abotu half a day to recover - headaches and so on.
I *think* what happened was simply falling asleep after jabbing for a late supper (a classic error - and a reason to keep regular hours for a diabetic)
I woke up this morning and yawned contentedly and then thought “oh shit” and I rolled over to my phone to see if Trump had, in fact, dropped a nuke on Iran, while I was sleeping
The more you look at the world, the more often you realize how much healthier Ukrainian society has become when it comes to coexistence between nationalities and faiths.
We weren’t always like this. We are becoming this now — as the country is being radically transformed by revolution and by the defense against imperial Russia.
We are shedding the weight of so many remnants of the past — really fast.
Thank you, that's inspiring. Nothing like a common enemy for drawing people together.
It’s remarkably similar to what’s been seen in the UAE in recent weeks.
Also the Artemis moon flyby, which briefly united the world (apart from one Guardian hack) in seeing what humanity can do.
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
Yes, and that would make him a bad president.
However, his very isolationism means he wouldn't kidnap other countries' leaders or launch random bombing campaigns or threaten to invade his neighbours or say on Twitter that he's planning to use nukes.
I hate to say it, but even allowing for Vance being a loathsome scumbag and a Russian sycophant that would be an improvement at this point.
Edit - he is alsoAFAIK unconnected to Epstein, which would also be a step up.
Vance is also very intelligent, would probably be the most intelligent Republican President since Nixon
Apart from Bush Snr, that's an incredibly low bar.
Ford was also reasonably intelligent like Bush Sr but not as intelligent as Nixon or Vance. Reagan didn't have a high IQ but was articulate and an excellent communicator.
Bush Jr and Trump aren't particularly intelligent or articulate but both are sharp, Bush Jr had a higher SAT score than Kerry though not Gore. Trump I would say has a slightly higher IQ than Biden did, though Hillary Clinton and probably Harris have a higher IQ than Trump
Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.
Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.
To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.
And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.
Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).
The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.
I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).
The missing relationship from your list, is that between Iran and the GCC States which surround it.
These States were not part of any war, until Iran started randomly bombing them on 28th Feb, and are determined to prevent this situation recurring in future.
Until very recently, Qatar was an Iranian ally, and the source of significant funds that ended up funding various Iranian proxies around the region, much to the disdain of their fellow GCC members. The World Cup very nearly didn’t happen, and forced the Qaratis to compromise. Now Iran is very much the enemy of everyone else in the region. Now Qatar has to rebuild significant O&G facilities.
My suspicion is that, if Iran tries to toll the Straight, the GCC will use military force to avoid the tolls.
I thought the USA launched attacks from bases in the GCC territory from the start?
That's a distinction rather lost at time of war, especially Mr Trump vs the Mullahs sounds like the Vl'Hurgs vs G'Gugvuntts because someone has insulted Donnie's mother. Rue the absence of small dogs.
Anthropic's (claims its) new model, Claude Mythos, is so powerful that it is not releasing it to the public.
Instead, it is starting a 40-company coalition, Project Glasswing, to allow cybersecurity defenders a head start in locking down critical software..
..I spoke to Anthropic execs about the new model, which they called a "reckoning" for cybersecurity. They claim it has already found vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser, including some that "literally decades of security researchers" didn't find...
..As always, the best stuff is in the system card.
During testing, Claude Mythos Preview broke out of a sandbox environment, built "a moderately sophisticated multi-step exploit" to gain internet access, and emailed a researcher while they were eating a sandwich in the park... https://x.com/kevinroose/status/2041577176915702169
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
Yes, and that would make him a bad president.
However, his very isolationism means he wouldn't kidnap other countries' leaders or launch random bombing campaigns or threaten to invade his neighbours or say on Twitter that he's planning to use nukes.
I hate to say it, but even allowing for Vance being a loathsome scumbag and a Russian sycophant that would be an improvement at this point.
Edit - he is alsoAFAIK unconnected to Epstein, which would also be a step up.
Vance is also very intelligent, would probably be the most intelligent Republican President since Nixon
Intelligence is good; common sense with it is a great deal better.
Both are surpassed by moral character. We need that more than anything in our leaders.
Old teacher wisdom:
Clever and nasty causes a lot more trouble than stupid and nasty.
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
Yes, and that would make him a bad president.
However, his very isolationism means he wouldn't kidnap other countries' leaders or launch random bombing campaigns or threaten to invade his neighbours or say on Twitter that he's planning to use nukes.
I hate to say it, but even allowing for Vance being a loathsome scumbag and a Russian sycophant that would be an improvement at this point.
Edit - he is alsoAFAIK unconnected to Epstein, which would also be a step up.
Vance is also very intelligent, would probably be the most intelligent Republican President since Nixon
Intelligence is good; common sense with it is a great deal better.
Both are surpassed by moral character. We need that more than anything in our leaders.
Hmmm. Moral character plus intelligence is good, but common sense is very useful.
It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".
If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.
So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.
There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.
Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
Keep an eye on JD Vance. His best chance of reaching the White House is if the President steps down, voluntarily or otherwise. The next likely distraction mooted for Trump is Cuba, but that will favour Rubio so Vance will want to block it. The problem for us is that Vance is at least as isolationist as Trump and probably means it.
Yes, and that would make him a bad president.
However, his very isolationism means he wouldn't kidnap other countries' leaders or launch random bombing campaigns or threaten to invade his neighbours or say on Twitter that he's planning to use nukes.
I hate to say it, but even allowing for Vance being a loathsome scumbag and a Russian sycophant that would be an improvement at this point.
Edit - he is alsoAFAIK unconnected to Epstein, which would also be a step up.
Vance is also very intelligent, would probably be the most intelligent Republican President since Nixon
George H. Bush was brighter than either of them, for all his verbal gaffes.
I'm not sure either make for great parallels though.
George HW Bush was posher and more establishment than Nixon or Vance. Unlike them he came from old money and went to a posh private boarding school, Phillips Academy and unlike Nixon had an Ivy League degree but in raw IQ terms I would say they were higher than he was
The more you look at the world, the more often you realize how much healthier Ukrainian society has become when it comes to coexistence between nationalities and faiths.
We weren’t always like this. We are becoming this now — as the country is being radically transformed by revolution and by the defense against imperial Russia.
We are shedding the weight of so many remnants of the past — really fast.
Thank you, that's inspiring. Nothing like a common enemy for drawing people together.
It’s remarkably similar to what’s been seen in the UAE in recent weeks.
Also the Artemis moon flyby, which briefly united the world (apart from one Guardian hack) in seeing what humanity can do.
Bush Jr and Trump aren't particularly intelligent or articulate but both are sharp, Bush Jr had a higher SAT score than Kerry though not Gore. Trump I would say has a slightly higher IQ than Biden did, though Hillary Clinton and probably Harris have a higher IQ than Trump
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Bush Jr and Trump aren't particularly intelligent or articulate but both are sharp, Bush Jr had a higher SAT score than Kerry though not Gore. Trump I would say has a slightly higher IQ than Biden did, though Hillary Clinton and probably Harris have a higher IQ than Trump
Israeli airstrikes have targeted a building in Aabbasiyyeh and a vehicle in Qasimiyeh, southern Lebanon. The IDF says there is no ceasefire in Lebanon.
The more you look at the world, the more often you realize how much healthier Ukrainian society has become when it comes to coexistence between nationalities and faiths.
We weren’t always like this. We are becoming this now — as the country is being radically transformed by revolution and by the defense against imperial Russia.
We are shedding the weight of so many remnants of the past — really fast.
Thank you, that's inspiring. Nothing like a common enemy for drawing people together.
It’s remarkably similar to what’s been seen in the UAE in recent weeks.
Also the Artemis moon flyby, which briefly united the world (apart from one Guardian hack) in seeing what humanity can do.
Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.
Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.
To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.
And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.
Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).
The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.
I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).
The missing relationship from your list, is that between Iran and the GCC States which surround it.
These States were not part of any war, until Iran started randomly bombing them on 28th Feb, and are determined to prevent this situation recurring in future.
Until very recently, Qatar was an Iranian ally, and the source of significant funds that ended up funding various Iranian proxies around the region, much to the disdain of their fellow GCC members. The World Cup very nearly didn’t happen, and forced the Qaratis to compromise. Now Iran is very much the enemy of everyone else in the region. Now Qatar has to rebuild significant O&G facilities.
My suspicion is that, if Iran tries to toll the Straight, the GCC will use military force to avoid the tolls.
I thought the USA launched attacks from bases in the GCC territory from the start?
That's a distinction rather lost at time of war, especially Mr Trump vs the Mullahs sounds like the Vl'Hurgs vs G'Gugvuntts because someone has insulted Donnie's mother. Rue the absence of small dogs.
No, the GCC nations refused US permission for offensive flights against Iran, so they flew from the US and UK territories.
Which is why we were really pissed off when Iran retaliated by bombing Dubai!
I woke up this morning and yawned contentedly and then thought “oh shit” and I rolled over to my phone to see if Trump had, in fact, dropped a nuke on Iran, while I was sleeping
I woke up this morning and yawned contentedly and then thought “oh shit” and I rolled over to my phone to see if Trump had, in fact, dropped a nuke on Iran, while I was sleeping
I’d rather not go through that moment again
This needs to be the last such post from this ludicrous individual.
Bush Jr and Trump aren't particularly intelligent or articulate but both are sharp, Bush Jr had a higher SAT score than Kerry though not Gore. Trump I would say has a slightly higher IQ than Biden did, though Hillary Clinton and probably Harris have a higher IQ than Trump
Anthropic's (claims its) new model, Claude Mythos, is so powerful that it is not releasing it to the public.
Instead, it is starting a 40-company coalition, Project Glasswing, to allow cybersecurity defenders a head start in locking down critical software..
..I spoke to Anthropic execs about the new model, which they called a "reckoning" for cybersecurity. They claim it has already found vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser, including some that "literally decades of security researchers" didn't find...
..As always, the best stuff is in the system card.
During testing, Claude Mythos Preview broke out of a sandbox environment, built "a moderately sophisticated multi-step exploit" to gain internet access, and emailed a researcher while they were eating a sandwich in the park... https://x.com/kevinroose/status/2041577176915702169
“Our new product is about to break your business model, please pay us milions to avoid that happening…”
Bush Jr and Trump aren't particularly intelligent or articulate but both are sharp, Bush Jr had a higher SAT score than Kerry though not Gore. Trump I would say has a slightly higher IQ than Biden did, though Hillary Clinton and probably Harris have a higher IQ than Trump
"Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had"
--- William T. Kelley (Penn Wharton)
You don't get to be a billionaire and President of the USA by being completely dumb
PB posters seem to treat intelligence as a holistic thing you either have or don't have. Evidently that is not the case, one of the most intelligent footballers ever was Gazza, incredible spatial awareness and vision, but he was as daft as a brush even before his alcohol problems.
Trump has an uncanny understanding of what people want to hear, how they react to messaging and how to manipulate, combined with a complete lack of interest in any knowledge beyond the superficial. He is exceptionally strong in some small pockets of intelligence, but exceptionally weak in most, just like Gazza.
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Purely on the numbers, GCC spend very roughly 4-5% of GDP on defence. Saudi Arabia spends roughly what the UK does - $80 billion, for a GDP 1/3 of the size.
Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.
Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.
To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.
And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.
Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).
The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.
I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).
The missing relationship from your list, is that between Iran and the GCC States which surround it.
These States were not part of any war, until Iran started randomly bombing them on 28th Feb, and are determined to prevent this situation recurring in future.
Until very recently, Qatar was an Iranian ally, and the source of significant funds that ended up funding various Iranian proxies around the region, much to the disdain of their fellow GCC members. The World Cup very nearly didn’t happen, and forced the Qaratis to compromise. Now Iran is very much the enemy of everyone else in the region. Now Qatar has to rebuild significant O&G facilities.
My suspicion is that, if Iran tries to toll the Straight, the GCC will use military force to avoid the tolls.
I thought the USA launched attacks from bases in the GCC territory from the start?
That's a distinction rather lost at time of war, especially Mr Trump vs the Mullahs sounds like the Vl'Hurgs vs G'Gugvuntts because someone has insulted Donnie's mother. Rue the absence of small dogs.
No, the GCC nations refused US permission for offensive flights against Iran, so they flew from the US and UK territories.
Which is why we were really pissed off when Iran retaliated by bombing Dubai!
Bush Jr and Trump aren't particularly intelligent or articulate but both are sharp, Bush Jr had a higher SAT score than Kerry though not Gore. Trump I would say has a slightly higher IQ than Biden did, though Hillary Clinton and probably Harris have a higher IQ than Trump
"Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had"
--- William T. Kelley (Penn Wharton)
You don't get to be a billionaire and President of the USA by being completely dumb
You get to be a billionaire by having rich friends, and you get to be President by having completely dumb voters.
The guy is a fucking moron.
I think this is a stretch. He used to have a degree of charm and coupled to hitting on a strategy to attract the left behind voters in America. See also Reform right now and Brexit before hand. Right now it looks increasingly that he is not all there mentally, in the same way that Biden had gone. But 10 years back he was far more articulate and certainly not ‘a fucking moron’. Quite why the Republicans are so afraid of removing him I cannot say. Perhaps they lack the history of changing horses that the U.K. has.
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Thanks for the insight.
The GCC countries do have the cash to splash, as it were, to defend the oil and gas infrastructure.
I’d be interested on your thoughts as to how the GCC view China going forward - for now, a significant customer but also seeking to move away from oil dependency.
I do think China has engineered this ceasefire as an act of desperation as they could see the impacts of a prolonged interruption of supply hurting them hard and fast.
I woke up this morning and yawned contentedly and then thought “oh shit” and I rolled over to my phone to see if Trump had, in fact, dropped a nuke on Iran, while I was sleeping
I’d rather not go through that moment again
This needs to be the last such post from this ludicrous individual.
Edit: Donald Trump, I mean.
I’d have left it without the clarification. Let the reader decide…
Anthropic's (claims its) new model, Claude Mythos, is so powerful that it is not releasing it to the public.
Instead, it is starting a 40-company coalition, Project Glasswing, to allow cybersecurity defenders a head start in locking down critical software..
..I spoke to Anthropic execs about the new model, which they called a "reckoning" for cybersecurity. They claim it has already found vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser, including some that "literally decades of security researchers" didn't find...
..As always, the best stuff is in the system card.
During testing, Claude Mythos Preview broke out of a sandbox environment, built "a moderately sophisticated multi-step exploit" to gain internet access, and emailed a researcher while they were eating a sandwich in the park... https://x.com/kevinroose/status/2041577176915702169
“Our new product is about to break your business model, please pay us milions to avoid that happening…”
Seems to be a typo there, should be a b instead of an m.
Bush Jr and Trump aren't particularly intelligent or articulate but both are sharp, Bush Jr had a higher SAT score than Kerry though not Gore. Trump I would say has a slightly higher IQ than Biden did, though Hillary Clinton and probably Harris have a higher IQ than Trump
"Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had"
--- William T. Kelley (Penn Wharton)
You don't get to be a billionaire and President of the USA by being completely dumb
PB posters seem to treat intelligence as a holistic thing you either have or don't have. Evidently that is not the case, one of the most intelligent footballers ever was Gazza, incredible spatial awareness and vision, but he was as daft as a brush even before his alcohol problems.
Trump has an uncanny understanding of what people want to hear, how they react to messaging and how to manipulate, combined with a complete lack of interest in any knowledge beyond the superficial. He is exceptionally strong in some small pockets of intelligence, but exceptionally weak in most, just like Gazza.
Perfect skillset to gain power, especially in Presidential elections. Pretty disastrous skillset for someone exercising power.
One in eight British residents of the United Arab Emirates has left since Iran launched retaliatory strikes on neighbouring countries in February. Official estimates obtained by the FT show 30,000 British residents — or between 10-15 per cent of the prewar, long-term population — are outside the UAE, raising concerns among school operators banking on growth in student numbers.
Comments
That's progress of a sort🥺🥺🥺🥺
I was in Fujairah yesterday, and there’s hundreds of lorries in queues for the ports of Fujairah and Khorfakkan on the East coast of UAE, running a land bridge to Sharjah on the West coast only 100km away.
Mostly containers rather than O&G, but there’s already one pipeline at 1.5m b/d running from Fujairah to the oil fields of Abu Dhabi.
https://x.com/iaponomarenko/status/1928486620736717289
Closing paragraphs:
The more you look at the world, the more often you realize how much healthier Ukrainian society has become when it comes to coexistence between nationalities and faiths.
We weren’t always like this. We are becoming this now — as the country is being radically transformed by revolution and by the defense against imperial Russia.
We are shedding the weight of so many remnants of the past — really fast.
What Trump will want to avoid is the Democrats not only winning the House but the Senate with a 2/3 majority or close to it as that would not only enable his impeachment but his conviction and removal from office too. Not merely blocking his policy and legislative agenda. We are still not at that big a Democratic landslide yet
Restore Britain and Your Party are included by YouGov for the first time
Whether that means prompting for them, or just collating the write-ins, someone else might know.
A slight increase for the LDs ahead of the local elections will also please Davey but nothing significant
He could either invade Cuba, or seize the Panama canal, or sack Hegseth
I don't see him sacking Whiskey Pete just yet
However, that would take years and I expect Iran to get away with it until the next crisis
Countries will either pay them or not. A number may well look at the cost/benefit and decide it's worthwhile.
Depending in the US approach to it, and their possible future use of sanctions, then "legally" might matter for countries like S Korea or Japan.
For China, it would be completely irrelevant.
The events I predict would be YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES ..... NOOOOOOOOO !!
Who said YES? US? As if?
https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2041785268374540291
Looks like the Ukranians have taken advantage of the world’s eyes being elsewhere.
However, his very isolationism means he wouldn't kidnap other countries' leaders or launch random bombing campaigns or threaten to invade his neighbours or say on Twitter that he's planning to use nukes.
I hate to say it, but even allowing for Vance being a loathsome scumbag and a Russian sycophant that would be an improvement at this point.
Edit - he is alsoAFAIK unconnected to Epstein, which would also be a step up.
But the US has always believed Might is Right (albeit less than at present, and their belief in it will shrink with the number of peer advisories).
"Silicon sampling" is coming in:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/opinion/ai-polling.html
Asimov, seventy years ago...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_(short_story)
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
https://x.com/broseph_stalin/status/2041784227415392357?s=20
Whether that thought was either rational sensible is, of course, open to doubt.
It's probably a necessary campaign stop for Vance, and he will have been told to go there by Trump (as well as being personally sympathetic to a semi-authoritarian "Catholic" - at least in Orban's view - state).
I'm not sure either make for great parallels though.
An interesting, unwelcome experience at the weekend. A moderately serious hypo (ie low).
I woke up in the early hours - 1am perhaps, with a nasty bruise, a skinned elbow, my bedside table broken in two, and a lens from my glasses missing (this sounds like the symptoms of the approach to Magrathea). I've no idea what happened, about a low somewhat nastier than I normally get. The liver sheds glucose as the body's Plan B which wakes you up again. I think if you don't it's a coma.
If anyone wonders slightly what it feels like. it is like that 2/3 drunk feeling when you cannot for the life of you remember your phone password. I spent 15 minutes trying to remember the 4 digit password to my pump control unit, and kept getting it wrong. The number was not there, and of course I could not think up the algorithm.
One surprise was that there was considerable difficulty undoing a small carton of juice, due to loss of motor skills. I have noticed that that before. At the I was mentally woozy enough that strategy just doesn't come into it so I didn't not really detect it .... it's glucose .... anywhere. And it was a deep enough hypo that it took 45 minutes to get back to an even keel. It then takes abotu half a day to recover - headaches and so on.
I *think* what happened was simply falling asleep after jabbing for a late supper (a classic error - and a reason to keep regular hours for a diabetic)
I’d rather not go through that moment again
Also the Artemis moon flyby, which briefly united the world (apart from one Guardian hack) in seeing what humanity can do.
Bush Jr and Trump aren't particularly intelligent or articulate but both are sharp, Bush Jr had a higher SAT score than Kerry though not Gore. Trump I would say has a slightly higher IQ than Biden did, though Hillary Clinton and probably Harris have a higher IQ than Trump
My phone connection to PB isnt working.
That's a distinction rather lost at time of war, especially Mr Trump vs the Mullahs sounds like the Vl'Hurgs vs G'Gugvuntts because someone has insulted Donnie's mother. Rue the absence of small dogs.
Instead, it is starting a 40-company coalition, Project Glasswing, to allow cybersecurity defenders a head start in locking down critical software..
..I spoke to Anthropic execs about the new model, which they called a "reckoning" for cybersecurity.
They claim it has already found vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser, including some that "literally decades of security researchers" didn't find...
..As always, the best stuff is in the system card.
During testing, Claude Mythos Preview broke out of a sandbox environment, built "a moderately sophisticated multi-step exploit" to gain internet access, and emailed a researcher while they were eating a sandwich in the park...
https://x.com/kevinroose/status/2041577176915702169
Clever and nasty causes a lot more trouble than stupid and nasty.
"Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had"
--- William T. Kelley (Penn Wharton)
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Israeli airstrikes have targeted a building in Aabbasiyyeh and a vehicle in Qasimiyeh, southern Lebanon. The IDF says there is no ceasefire in Lebanon.
He also has a load of NASA contracts.
Which is why we were really pissed off when Iran retaliated by bombing Dubai!
PortilloArmageddon?Edit: Donald Trump, I mean.
The guy is a fucking moron.
https://x.com/itvnews/status/2041781232640405542
Any idea where and when?
Trump has an uncanny understanding of what people want to hear, how they react to messaging and how to manipulate, combined with a complete lack of interest in any knowledge beyond the superficial. He is exceptionally strong in some small pockets of intelligence, but exceptionally weak in most, just like Gazza.
Right now it looks increasingly that he is not all there mentally, in the same way that Biden had gone. But 10 years back he was far more articulate and certainly not ‘a fucking moron’.
Quite why the Republicans are so afraid of removing him I cannot say. Perhaps they lack the history of changing horses that the U.K. has.
The GCC countries do have the cash to splash, as it were, to defend the oil and gas infrastructure.
I’d be interested on your thoughts as to how the GCC view China going forward - for now, a significant customer but also seeking to move away from oil dependency.
I do think China has engineered this ceasefire as an act of desperation as they could see the impacts of a prolonged interruption of supply hurting them hard and fast.
Not the only example of that in history.
Not entirely baseless fear.
One in eight British residents of the United Arab Emirates has left since Iran launched retaliatory strikes on neighbouring countries in February. Official estimates obtained by the FT show 30,000 British residents — or between 10-15 per cent of the prewar, long-term population — are outside the UAE, raising concerns among school operators banking on growth in student numbers.