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Now I saw when the lamb opened one of the seals.. – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    LOL

    Trump got well and truly mugged off by Bibi

    ‘ The NYT reports that the Israelis "hard-pitched" the Iran War to Trump in February, and this meeting ultimately led to Trump's final decision.

    In the meeting, the Israelis said that Iran's ballistic missiles could be destroyed, their grip on the Strait of Hormuz loosened, and the Kurds would flood in to fight Iran, culminating in regime change.

    Every Trump advisor pushed back, but President Trump maintained that the regime change wasn't his issue, believing he could dislodge Iran's missiles and grip on the Strait.

    General Dan Caine and Sec. Rubio warned that the analysis was nonsense, with the after effects showing that neither the expectation of destroying Iran's missiles nor securing the Strait was achievable.

    As a result, the Israelis effectively sold Trump on a war under false pretenses that turned into a conundrum quickly.

    Caine noted the Israelis frequently oversell their plans, with time revealing that none of the projected outcomes in Iran came to pass. ’


    https://x.com/afpost/status/2041579172540113035?s=61

    That sounds extremely plausible, to me
    The story has verbatim quotes from the briefing.
    Someone leaked like an incontinent colander.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,820

    OllyT said:

    Brixian59 said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    Badenock should be put in the same straight-jacket as Trump.

    Starmer allowed the B1 and B52s to fly out of Fairford to bomb Iran

    He did not do an Italy, Spain, or Austria
    He's not fellating him in the same way your party's leader is.
    Big G knows full well they attacked missile sites threatening uk citizens in Emirates.

    He's not stupid, he merely seeks to absolve the gutless gobshite who is leading the Tory Party to extinction.
    The B1 and B52s bombed offensively in Iran at the specific approval of Starmer and no amount of abusive rhetoric against Kemi will change that

    ... and how ever often you repeat that it will not alter the fact that Badenoch would have been far more supportive of Trump and Netanyahu from the outset however hard she tries to back peddle and pretend otherwise.
    The question is, is there any evidence her alleged stance has affected her politically in the voters mind, not just on a political forum ?

    If there is then OK, but where is it ?
    This is the politician you are selling to us as the UK's next Prime Minister. A politician so unserious that she is four square behind Donald Trump, his illegal war and his push towards nuclear Armageddon.

    But it is OK, her stance hasn't been detrimental to her polling yet, because no one was listening anyway.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,180
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    LOL

    Trump got well and truly mugged off by Bibi

    ‘ The NYT reports that the Israelis "hard-pitched" the Iran War to Trump in February, and this meeting ultimately led to Trump's final decision.

    In the meeting, the Israelis said that Iran's ballistic missiles could be destroyed, their grip on the Strait of Hormuz loosened, and the Kurds would flood in to fight Iran, culminating in regime change.

    Every Trump advisor pushed back, but President Trump maintained that the regime change wasn't his issue, believing he could dislodge Iran's missiles and grip on the Strait.

    General Dan Caine and Sec. Rubio warned that the analysis was nonsense, with the after effects showing that neither the expectation of destroying Iran's missiles nor securing the Strait was achievable.

    As a result, the Israelis effectively sold Trump on a war under false pretenses that turned into a conundrum quickly.

    Caine noted the Israelis frequently oversell their plans, with time revealing that none of the projected outcomes in Iran came to pass. ’


    https://x.com/afpost/status/2041579172540113035?s=61

    He's going to turn on Bibi soon isn't he?
    I want this to end with him, Bibi and Mojtaba Khamanei having three way pistols at dawn.

    And I hope they all shoot each other.
    Astonshing that you would lump two democratically elected leaders in with the head of the Iranian regime.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,090
    carnforth said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Bombers have been taking off from Fairford this afternoon, ready to reach Iran by the deadline:

    https://x.com/LizWebsterSBF/status/2041560487150735480

    A jet taking off from Fairford

    A jet.

    Hardly "bombers" or anything like a squadron...

    Typical right wing and extreme left wing truth manipulation
    Maybe listen to the local plane spotters

    https://x.com/i/status/2041559326599344538
    How, they haven’t said anything? Do you read the stuff you link to?
    Why are you so rude

    There are plenty more from Fairford in the media
    Because I’m a Gen X, Capricorn, lawyer, with a grudge. Why are you so credulous?
    Did you hear the joke about the cruise ship that sank mid atlantic ?

    No

    Do you want the good news or bad news first ?

    The bad

    There were no survivors

    What on earth is the good news ?

    They were all lawyers
    You often talk about your son's excellent work with the RNLI but make jokes about drowning, that's one hell of a Venn diagram.
    No gallows humour in the RNLI?
    I hope the RNLI would even rescue lawyers if they were in difficulty at sea, although I expect they would require an undertaking not to be sued if they failed to save everyone.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,784

    Reportedly *we* are bombing Iran. B52s fully loaded departing from RAF Fairford this afternoon

    It's OK. It's just defensive bombing. Not the horrible offensive kind, oh dear me no. That way we fit into international law and Starmer is happy.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,090

    Reportedly *we* are bombing Iran. B52s fully loaded departing from RAF Fairford this afternoon

    What can we do to put ourselves in the worst possible economic position? I know! Shut down our own oil and gas facilities then allow the Americans to bomb the Middle East from UK bases.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,446
    AnneJGP said:

    I've just tried to set up a personal account on the hospital's website, as instructed by the appointment letter. The attempt failed and the system has sent me an email that starts off Hello No patient name on file.,

    They must have a truly international patient base, though, because I had to start entering my address by specifying which country I live in, and the drop-down list didn't have UK at the top or even a facility for direct entry. Scroll all the way down through the nations of the world to United Kingdom.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,242
    "Australia's most-decorated living soldier charged over alleged war crimes":

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crr1jyk0qwjo
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    Brixian59 said:

    Bombers have been taking off from Fairford this afternoon, ready to reach Iran by the deadline:

    https://x.com/LizWebsterSBF/status/2041560487150735480

    A jet taking off from Fairford

    A jet.

    Hardly "bombers" or anything like a squadron...

    Typical right wing and extreme left wing truth manipulation
    Jets plural luv. Bombers. Multiple. Loaded.

    Your man is playing both sides.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,820

    Bombers have been taking off from Fairford this afternoon, ready to reach Iran by the deadline:

    https://x.com/LizWebsterSBF/status/2041560487150735480

    I'd prefer they weren't, but another poster in line behind Trump with his misadventure whilst at the same time critiquing Starmer for the US use of US bases in Gloucestershire and the Chagos Islands.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958

    Are we going to have to go through this all over again in 2 weeks? Christ

    For a decade or so til the AI takes over in disgust.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,090
    AnneJGP said:

    AnneJGP said:

    I've just tried to set up a personal account on the hospital's website, as instructed by the appointment letter. The attempt failed and the system has sent me an email that starts off Hello No patient name on file.,

    They must have a truly international patient base, though, because I had to start entering my address by specifying which country I live in, and the drop-down list didn't have UK at the top or even a facility for direct entry. Scroll all the way down through the nations of the world to United Kingdom.
    I always scroll down through the drop-down list in the hope that Scotland is listed separately.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    I don’t think people have yet clocked how fucked we are - and that is in the best case scenario when TACO gives Iran 6 weeks to agree to his peace deal. Strait stay shut to western traffic, economic meltdown continues, price of everything shoots up, ability to borrow at prices lower than £fuckoff goes away.

    And that is the best case scenario. Worst case? Planet of the Apes baby…
  • I am meant to be on a plane tomorrow, flying east towards the maelstrom. Happy days
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Bombers have been taking off from Fairford this afternoon, ready to reach Iran by the deadline:

    https://x.com/LizWebsterSBF/status/2041560487150735480

    A jet taking off from Fairford

    A jet.

    Hardly "bombers" or anything like a squadron...

    Typical right wing and extreme left wing truth manipulation
    Maybe listen to the local plane spotters

    https://x.com/i/status/2041559326599344538
    How, they haven’t said anything? Do you read the stuff you link to?
    Why are you so rude

    There are plenty more from Fairford in the media
    Because I’m a Gen X, Capricorn, lawyer, with a grudge. Why are you so credulous?
    Did you hear the joke about the cruise ship that sank mid atlantic ?

    No

    Do you want the good news or bad news first ?

    The bad

    There were no survivors

    What on earth is the good news ?

    They were all lawyers
    You often talk about your son's excellent work with the RNLI but make jokes about drowning, that's one hell of a Venn diagram.
    It was told at a business conference in London years ago and was seen as funny

    Maybe today not so, but I take my share of flack on here and expected a negative response from some


    Not your best effort, Big_G, but we've all bombed on occasion.
    Maybe not but sometimes posts are either a wind up, insensitive, or wrong and we can all be sensitive to such posts if it triggers our annoyance
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,305
    viewcode said:

    Reportedly *we* are bombing Iran. B52s fully loaded departing from RAF Fairford this afternoon

    It's OK. It's just defensive bombing. Not the horrible offensive kind, oh dear me no. That way we fit into international law and Starmer is happy.
    Let's just imagine they had loaded nukes at Fairford and are about to use them.

    It would most likely be a smallish regional nuclear war, we'd all go to work tomorrow as normal, but Starmer would be soooo toast.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,025

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,090
    carnforth said:

    AnneJGP said:

    AnneJGP said:

    I've just tried to set up a personal account on the hospital's website, as instructed by the appointment letter. The attempt failed and the system has sent me an email that starts off Hello No patient name on file.,

    They must have a truly international patient base, though, because I had to start entering my address by specifying which country I live in, and the drop-down list didn't have UK at the top or even a facility for direct entry. Scroll all the way down through the nations of the world to United Kingdom.
    Famously in the early 1990s a company sent out letters to their wealthiest clients using the test name they had used for the mail merge dry run.

    "Dear Rich Bastard", they began...
    Was it Ratners?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181

    OllyT said:

    Brixian59 said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    Badenock should be put in the same straight-jacket as Trump.

    Starmer allowed the B1 and B52s to fly out of Fairford to bomb Iran

    He did not do an Italy, Spain, or Austria
    He's not fellating him in the same way your party's leader is.
    Big G knows full well they attacked missile sites threatening uk citizens in Emirates.

    He's not stupid, he merely seeks to absolve the gutless gobshite who is leading the Tory Party to extinction.
    The B1 and B52s bombed offensively in Iran at the specific approval of Starmer and no amount of abusive rhetoric against Kemi will change that

    ... and how ever often you repeat that it will not alter the fact that Badenoch would have been far more supportive of Trump and Netanyahu from the outset however hard she tries to back peddle and pretend otherwise.
    The question is, is there any evidence her alleged stance has affected her politically in the voters mind, not just on a political forum ?

    If there is then OK, but where is it ?
    This is the politician you are selling to us as the UK's next Prime Minister. A politician so unserious that she is four square behind Donald Trump, his illegal war and his push towards nuclear Armageddon.

    But it is OK, her stance hasn't been detrimental to her polling yet, because no one was listening anyway.
    Of course she is not and show me where she endorses Trump nuclear war
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    The stain of shame for America when this is all over in 33 months time will last a generation at least.

    :pensive:
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230

    Brixian59 said:

    Bombers have been taking off from Fairford this afternoon, ready to reach Iran by the deadline:

    https://x.com/LizWebsterSBF/status/2041560487150735480

    A jet taking off from Fairford

    A jet.

    Hardly "bombers" or anything like a squadron...

    Typical right wing and extreme left wing truth manipulation
    Jets plural luv. Bombers. Multiple. Loaded.

    Your man is playing both sides.
    This would never have happened under Rebecca Long-Bailey!
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 916

    The stain of shame for America when this is all over in 33 months time will last a generation at least.

    :pensive:

    Optimist.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,904
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    LOL

    Trump got well and truly mugged off by Bibi

    ‘ The NYT reports that the Israelis "hard-pitched" the Iran War to Trump in February, and this meeting ultimately led to Trump's final decision.

    In the meeting, the Israelis said that Iran's ballistic missiles could be destroyed, their grip on the Strait of Hormuz loosened, and the Kurds would flood in to fight Iran, culminating in regime change.

    Every Trump advisor pushed back, but President Trump maintained that the regime change wasn't his issue, believing he could dislodge Iran's missiles and grip on the Strait.

    General Dan Caine and Sec. Rubio warned that the analysis was nonsense, with the after effects showing that neither the expectation of destroying Iran's missiles nor securing the Strait was achievable.

    As a result, the Israelis effectively sold Trump on a war under false pretenses that turned into a conundrum quickly.

    Caine noted the Israelis frequently oversell their plans, with time revealing that none of the projected outcomes in Iran came to pass. ’


    https://x.com/afpost/status/2041579172540113035?s=61

    That sounds extremely plausible, to me
    The story has verbatim quotes from the briefing.
    Someone leaked like an incontinent colander.
    And for once it wasn’t Diaper Don.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,242

    carnforth said:

    AnneJGP said:

    AnneJGP said:

    I've just tried to set up a personal account on the hospital's website, as instructed by the appointment letter. The attempt failed and the system has sent me an email that starts off Hello No patient name on file.,

    They must have a truly international patient base, though, because I had to start entering my address by specifying which country I live in, and the drop-down list didn't have UK at the top or even a facility for direct entry. Scroll all the way down through the nations of the world to United Kingdom.
    Famously in the early 1990s a company sent out letters to their wealthiest clients using the test name they had used for the mail merge dry run.

    "Dear Rich Bastard", they began...
    Was it Ratners?
    Sadly the firm is un-named but it is allegedly true:

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dear-rich-bastard/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    isam said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Bombers have been taking off from Fairford this afternoon, ready to reach Iran by the deadline:

    https://x.com/LizWebsterSBF/status/2041560487150735480

    A jet taking off from Fairford

    A jet.

    Hardly "bombers" or anything like a squadron...

    Typical right wing and extreme left wing truth manipulation
    Jets plural luv. Bombers. Multiple. Loaded.

    Your man is playing both sides.
    This would never have happened under Rebecca Long-Bailey!
    Think of the Bomb-Gaily puns, though.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,025

    carnforth said:

    AnneJGP said:

    AnneJGP said:

    I've just tried to set up a personal account on the hospital's website, as instructed by the appointment letter. The attempt failed and the system has sent me an email that starts off Hello No patient name on file.,

    They must have a truly international patient base, though, because I had to start entering my address by specifying which country I live in, and the drop-down list didn't have UK at the top or even a facility for direct entry. Scroll all the way down through the nations of the world to United Kingdom.
    Famously in the early 1990s a company sent out letters to their wealthiest clients using the test name they had used for the mail merge dry run.

    "Dear Rich Bastard", they began...
    Was it Ratners?
    Nah, Ratners didn't have any wealthy clients.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,090

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    If the Tories were still in power I would expect a lockdown to start on 6th May, after the oldies have sent in their postal votes but before younger people can visit their polling stations.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,025
    edited April 7

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    'de facto' - no fuel, no travel.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580
    edited April 7

    The stain of shame for America when this is all over in 33 months time will last a generation at least.

    :pensive:

    I spoke to some Canadian friends a few weeks ago, their view is that even if the Dems will the presidency in a landslide in 2028 they will never ever fucking trust the Yanks again.

    They ain't getting suckered in and then see a Trump mini me win in 2032.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,492
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    LOL

    Trump got well and truly mugged off by Bibi

    ‘ The NYT reports that the Israelis "hard-pitched" the Iran War to Trump in February, and this meeting ultimately led to Trump's final decision.

    In the meeting, the Israelis said that Iran's ballistic missiles could be destroyed, their grip on the Strait of Hormuz loosened, and the Kurds would flood in to fight Iran, culminating in regime change.

    Every Trump advisor pushed back, but President Trump maintained that the regime change wasn't his issue, believing he could dislodge Iran's missiles and grip on the Strait.

    General Dan Caine and Sec. Rubio warned that the analysis was nonsense, with the after effects showing that neither the expectation of destroying Iran's missiles nor securing the Strait was achievable.

    As a result, the Israelis effectively sold Trump on a war under false pretenses that turned into a conundrum quickly.

    Caine noted the Israelis frequently oversell their plans, with time revealing that none of the projected outcomes in Iran came to pass. ’


    https://x.com/afpost/status/2041579172540113035?s=61

    He's going to turn on Bibi soon isn't he?
    I want this to end with him, Bibi and Mojtaba Khamanei having three way pistols at dawn.

    And I hope they all shoot each other.
    Astonshing that you would lump two democratically elected leaders in with the head of the Iranian regime.
    He’s the head of the American regime, not the Iranian one.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    I expect Trump will extend the deadline in the next hour or two.

    According to Al Jazeera Iran is positively reviewing the Pakistan proposals .
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,305

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    If you can get back.

    If you get stuck.... well, there must be a line in Nostradamus covering that one.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,466

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    He said de facto (in fact) not de jure (in law) so people will behave as if they were under lockdown constraints but without laws necessarily being passed
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    edited April 7
    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    Enforced WFH to preserve fuel stocks ?
    Petrol rationing might be more likely, if push comes to shove, but that would take time to organise.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,090

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    'de facto' - no fuel, no travel.
    Eabhal will enjoy cycling the empty roads of Edinburgh.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,492
    edited April 7

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Hmm. Right in the middle of exams, which de jure start on 11th May.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,025
    edited April 7

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Mrs P. and I have been in a pseudo travel lockdown for 6 months now due to a combination of the house build, health scares and family bereavement. But we're pretty much through that now with lots of trips booked for the rest of the year, starting in... May :(

    Fuck Trump
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,090

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    And for essential services like doctors and lawyers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    I don’t think a lockdown is a good analogy for fuel rationing. There would be no restrictions on large gatherings.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    No, the best result is that Trump falls out of a window now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,492
    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    The best case scenario is that Trump and Netanyahu both die from sudden heart attacks tonight, which means the bombing stops abruptly. Vance does not want it to continue and even if Levin wanted to carry on alone he couldn’t without American help.

    Unfortunately the Deep State is a myth so it won’t happen.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 6,056
    Pro_Rata said:

    viewcode said:

    Reportedly *we* are bombing Iran. B52s fully loaded departing from RAF Fairford this afternoon

    It's OK. It's just defensive bombing. Not the horrible offensive kind, oh dear me no. That way we fit into international law and Starmer is happy.
    Let's just imagine they had loaded nukes at Fairford and are about to use them.

    It would most likely be a smallish regional nuclear war, we'd all go to work tomorrow as normal, but Starmer would be soooo toast.
    Hopefully not toast in the ready-brek 'lovely glow you've got there' sense. Or we're probably all toast.

    image
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580
    Pro_Rata said:

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    If you can get back.

    If you get stuck.... well, there must be a line in Nostradamus covering that one.
    I've got an EV, I can go anywhere.

    Yes, EV drivers will become even more smug(ger).
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,305

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    I don’t think a lockdown is a good analogy for fuel rationing. There would be no restrictions on large gatherings.
    Mainly at petrol stations.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,035

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    I thought we had plenty of petrol, and it was just jet fuel that is the problem?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,848

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    Will we get a daily Whitty briefing where the exponential curve is the oil price?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,090

    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    No, the best result is that Trump falls out of a window now.
    And lands on Netanyahu.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,377
    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    I'm sure insurance companies will be perfectly willing to provide maritime insurance for tankers sailing through an irridatiated war zone
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,446

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    The impact of that will be crushing for the very poor. Doubtful if food banks will be given the fuel to provide deliveries (or collections, come to that). The multitude of services supplied by volunteers during covid lockdowns would be impossible too.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,160
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    LOL

    Trump got well and truly mugged off by Bibi

    ‘ The NYT reports that the Israelis "hard-pitched" the Iran War to Trump in February, and this meeting ultimately led to Trump's final decision.

    In the meeting, the Israelis said that Iran's ballistic missiles could be destroyed, their grip on the Strait of Hormuz loosened, and the Kurds would flood in to fight Iran, culminating in regime change.

    Every Trump advisor pushed back, but President Trump maintained that the regime change wasn't his issue, believing he could dislodge Iran's missiles and grip on the Strait.

    General Dan Caine and Sec. Rubio warned that the analysis was nonsense, with the after effects showing that neither the expectation of destroying Iran's missiles nor securing the Strait was achievable.

    As a result, the Israelis effectively sold Trump on a war under false pretenses that turned into a conundrum quickly.

    Caine noted the Israelis frequently oversell their plans, with time revealing that none of the projected outcomes in Iran came to pass. ’


    https://x.com/afpost/status/2041579172540113035?s=61

    He's going to turn on Bibi soon isn't he?
    I want this to end with him, Bibi and Mojtaba Khamanei having three way pistols at dawn.

    And I hope they all shoot each other.
    A Hell in a Cell style cage match.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,160

    Reportedly *we* are bombing Iran. B52s fully loaded departing from RAF Fairford this afternoon

    SKS - correct procedure was followed.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,446

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Mrs P. and I have been in a pseudo travel lockdown for 6 months now due to a combination of the house build, health scares and family bereavement. But we're pretty much through that now with lots of trips booked for the rest of the year, starting in... May :(

    Fuck Trump
    I hope you are able to have a wonderful summer/autumn/early winter.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    And for essential services like doctors and lawyers.
    It was amusing that I somehow was classed as a key worker during the pandemic.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883
    Taz said:

    Reportedly *we* are bombing Iran. B52s fully loaded departing from RAF Fairford this afternoon

    SKS - correct procedure was followed.
    “The planes did not fly across my desk.”
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,287
    edited April 7

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    'de facto' - no fuel, no travel.
    Eabhal will enjoy cycling the empty roads of Edinburgh.
    In May 2020 I ran the entire length of Princes Street, onto the Pentlands and back, all in the middle of the road. Glorious. Terrible for STLs, tartan tat, pubs and commercial property.

    Ultimately a large proportion of fossil fuel consumption is avoidable - WFH should be encouraged, and in cities like Edinburgh a large majority of commutes can be walked, cycled or use public transport (now largely electric). Gas consumption will fall dramatically as we enter the spring.

    A big hit to the economy but life will go on.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,305
    edited April 7
    AnneJGP said:

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    The impact of that will be crushing for the very poor. Doubtful if food banks will be given the fuel to provide deliveries (or collections, come to that). The multitude of services supplied by volunteers during covid lockdowns would be impossible too.
    These aren't long distance services. Shank's Pony would be doing much work and like lockdown the infirm would be helped.

    Ditto exams to a substantial degree.
  • Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    I'm sure insurance companies will be perfectly willing to provide maritime insurance for tankers sailing through an irridatiated war zone
    Well there ain't no tankers sailing through a warzone, either, and as long as the fuel, and fertiliser, and all else, is frozen behind the Straits, then the world is staring ar Armageddon. Famine, war, revolutions, disaster, worldwide

    If it is JUST Iran that gets nuked and surrenders, and the war ends, that is arguably better for the world as a whole

    I repeat, I am not trying to troll and roil the site, I am genuinely trying to see the "best" way out of here

    Saying "well Trump and Bibi can both die tonight, and all the mullahs, all at the same time" is all well and good (and it would be great) but it is a fairy tale for children
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580
    AnneJGP said:

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    The impact of that will be crushing for the very poor. Doubtful if food banks will be given the fuel to provide deliveries (or collections, come to that). The multitude of services supplied by volunteers during covid lockdowns would be impossible too.
    Quite a lot of delivery vehicles for the main supermarkets are electric, so there's some slack there.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,025
    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    You should add "I say this not as a joke" to all of your fuckwit ideas, so you can't pretend later you were just joking.

    If you think dropping nuclear bombs on Iran is going to lead to the rapid opening of Hormuz you are even dimmer than I thought.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,848
    Eabhal said:

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    'de facto' - no fuel, no travel.
    Eabhal will enjoy cycling the empty roads of Edinburgh.
    In May 2020 I ran the entire length of Princes Street, onto the Pentlands and back, all in the middle of the road. Glorious.

    Ultimately a large proportion of fossil fuel consumption is avoidable - WFH should be encouraged, and in cities like Edinburgh a large majority of commutes can be walked, cycled or use public transport (now largely electric). Gas consumption will fall dramatically as we enter the spring.

    A big hit to the economy but life will go on.
    It would be hilariously ironic if just as all the big businesses are basically more or less back to making everyone come into the office post-covid, at least some of the time if not most of it, then another wave of government "actually can you all stay home again" please struck again.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    I thought we had plenty of petrol, and it was just jet fuel that is the problem?
    If it's not replenished and there's long term damage to the sector means we're all buggered.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,242

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    I thought we had plenty of petrol, and it was just jet fuel that is the problem?


    Apparently.
  • Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    You should add "I say this not as a joke" to all of your fuckwit ideas, so you can't pretend later you were just joking.

    If you think dropping nuclear bombs on Iran is going to lead to the rapid opening of Hormuz you are even dimmer than I thought.
    I have tried to see a way out of this mess, within the bounds of rational expectations of the various crazy actors involved, that does not end with the world in famined turmoil

    You scoff and laugh

    So, OK, you have a go
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,547

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    Will we get a daily Whitty briefing where the exponential curve is the oil price?
    And a weekly statistic that is simple and the press can’t understand (and are surprised by) after 6 months of it happening every week
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    I'm sure insurance companies will be perfectly willing to provide maritime insurance for tankers sailing through an irridatiated war zone
    Well there ain't no tankers sailing through a warzone, either, and as long as the fuel, and fertiliser, and all else, is frozen behind the Straits, then the world is staring ar Armageddon. Famine, war, revolutions, disaster, worldwide

    If it is JUST Iran that gets nuked and surrenders, and the war ends, that is arguably better for the world as a whole

    I repeat, I am not trying to troll and roil the site, I am genuinely trying to see the "best" way out of here

    Saying "well Trump and Bibi can both die tonight, and all the mullahs, all at the same time" is all well and good (and it would be great) but it is a fairy tale for children
    As I noted last time you suggested this, there's no guarantee that nukes would end things.
    And if they didn't, the potential outcomes would be the worst of all options.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,287
    edited April 7
    AnneJGP said:

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    The impact of that will be crushing for the very poor. Doubtful if food banks will be given the fuel to provide deliveries (or collections, come to that). The multitude of services supplied by volunteers during covid lockdowns would be impossible too.
    The very poor don’t drive, and have very little gas consumption on average - small flats etc. Direct impacts would be limited, but the wider impacts would obviously be grim. Supermarket prices in particular.

    If the UK hadn’t massively cut bus services we’d be in a much better position.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380

    AnneJGP said:

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    The impact of that will be crushing for the very poor. Doubtful if food banks will be given the fuel to provide deliveries (or collections, come to that). The multitude of services supplied by volunteers during covid lockdowns would be impossible too.
    Quite a lot of delivery vehicles for the main supermarkets are electric, so there's some slack there.
    Looks like EV car sales are gonna go through the roof. Just at the time the car manufacturers are pressing Ed M to water down the fines for not selling enough EV cars.

    It's an ill wind etc etc...
  • Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    I'm sure insurance companies will be perfectly willing to provide maritime insurance for tankers sailing through an irridatiated war zone
    Well there ain't no tankers sailing through a warzone, either, and as long as the fuel, and fertiliser, and all else, is frozen behind the Straits, then the world is staring ar Armageddon. Famine, war, revolutions, disaster, worldwide

    If it is JUST Iran that gets nuked and surrenders, and the war ends, that is arguably better for the world as a whole

    I repeat, I am not trying to troll and roil the site, I am genuinely trying to see the "best" way out of here

    Saying "well Trump and Bibi can both die tonight, and all the mullahs, all at the same time" is all well and good (and it would be great) but it is a fairy tale for children
    As I noted last time you suggested this, there's no guarantee that nukes would end things.
    And if they didn't, the potential outcomes would be the worst of all options.
    So, I put it to you, as well -

    Given where we are, what is simultaneously the least disastrous way out of this, but also plausibly likely to happen - given the apparent insanity of all three actors - Trump, Netanyahu, the Mullahs. Knock yourself out, have a go
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    The lockdown idea. If fuel starts to run low then it will need to be rationed. Essential use will be critical, and that means reserving for emergency services, food delivery, farmers etc. you getting to the office? Less essential…
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    I'm sure insurance companies will be perfectly willing to provide maritime insurance for tankers sailing through an irridatiated war zone
    Well there ain't no tankers sailing through a warzone, either, and as long as the fuel, and fertiliser, and all else, is frozen behind the Straits, then the world is staring ar Armageddon. Famine, war, revolutions, disaster, worldwide

    If it is JUST Iran that gets nuked and surrenders, and the war ends, that is arguably better for the world as a whole

    I repeat, I am not trying to troll and roil the site, I am genuinely trying to see the "best" way out of here

    Saying "well Trump and Bibi can both die tonight, and all the mullahs, all at the same time" is all well and good (and it would be great) but it is a fairy tale for children
    We could try diplomacy.

    Agree a deal where everyone is back to where they were when Obama agreed a deal.

    Everyone except Netyanahu would be happy.

    And Trump.

    Obviously he would have to be removed via the 25th for this to happen but every cloud and so on.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    I'm sure insurance companies will be perfectly willing to provide maritime insurance for tankers sailing through an irridatiated war zone
    Well there ain't no tankers sailing through a warzone, either, and as long as the fuel, and fertiliser, and all else, is frozen behind the Straits, then the world is staring ar Armageddon. Famine, war, revolutions, disaster, worldwide

    If it is JUST Iran that gets nuked and surrenders, and the war ends, that is arguably better for the world as a whole

    I repeat, I am not trying to troll and roil the site, I am genuinely trying to see the "best" way out of here

    Saying "well Trump and Bibi can both die tonight, and all the mullahs, all at the same time" is all well and good (and it would be great) but it is a fairy tale for children
    As I noted last time you suggested this, there's no guarantee that nukes would end things.
    And if they didn't, the potential outcomes would be the worst of all options.
    So, I put it to you, as well -

    Given where we are, what is simultaneously the least disastrous way out of this, but also plausibly likely to happen - given the apparent insanity of all three actors - Trump, Netanyahu, the Mullahs. Knock yourself out, have a go
    Trump claims a win and stops the bombing. Simples.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580

    AnneJGP said:

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    The impact of that will be crushing for the very poor. Doubtful if food banks will be given the fuel to provide deliveries (or collections, come to that). The multitude of services supplied by volunteers during covid lockdowns would be impossible too.
    Quite a lot of delivery vehicles for the main supermarkets are electric, so there's some slack there.
    Looks like EV car sales are gonna go through the roof. Just at the time the car manufacturers are pressing Ed M to water down the fines for not selling enough EV cars.

    It's an ill wind etc etc...
    The other factor is that people behave stupidly in a crisis.

    Remember toilet rolls at the start of the pandemic, that was absolutely insane.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,704
    Defensive bombers depart from the UK.

    Mission to ensure the death of a whole civilisation (in a defensive way).
  • Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    I'm sure insurance companies will be perfectly willing to provide maritime insurance for tankers sailing through an irridatiated war zone
    Well there ain't no tankers sailing through a warzone, either, and as long as the fuel, and fertiliser, and all else, is frozen behind the Straits, then the world is staring ar Armageddon. Famine, war, revolutions, disaster, worldwide

    If it is JUST Iran that gets nuked and surrenders, and the war ends, that is arguably better for the world as a whole

    I repeat, I am not trying to troll and roil the site, I am genuinely trying to see the "best" way out of here

    Saying "well Trump and Bibi can both die tonight, and all the mullahs, all at the same time" is all well and good (and it would be great) but it is a fairy tale for children
    As I noted last time you suggested this, there's no guarantee that nukes would end things.
    And if they didn't, the potential outcomes would be the worst of all options.
    So, I put it to you, as well -

    Given where we are, what is simultaneously the least disastrous way out of this, but also plausibly likely to happen - given the apparent insanity of all three actors - Trump, Netanyahu, the Mullahs. Knock yourself out, have a go
    Trump claims a win and stops the bombing. Simples.
    This is just fucking tiresome
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,287

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    Will we get a daily Whitty briefing where the exponential curve is the oil price?
    And a weekly statistic that is simple and the press can’t understand (and are surprised by) after 6 months of it happening every week
    Already seen that with forecourt prices - simultaneously complaining about the cost and the fact they had run out.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    Eabhal said:

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    'de facto' - no fuel, no travel.
    Eabhal will enjoy cycling the empty roads of Edinburgh.
    In May 2020 I ran the entire length of Princes Street, onto the Pentlands and back, all in the middle of the road. Glorious. Terrible for STLs, tartan tat, pubs and commercial property.

    Ultimately a large proportion of fossil fuel consumption is avoidable - WFH should be encouraged, and in cities like Edinburgh a large majority of commutes can be walked, cycled or use public transport (now largely electric). Gas consumption will fall dramatically as we enter the spring.

    A big hit to the economy but life will go on.
    Here's a Question

    We stayed in the Princess Street Premier Inn recently and the taxi from Waverly dropped us off outside on Princess Street

    In order to be certain of a taxi the following morning I booked one on line

    When the time came there wasn't any sign of the taxi though it text me to say it was waiting

    Shortly after the driver walked into the Premier Inn and said he was not allowed on Princes Street and had parked in a side road

    Having mobility issues I struggled to walk to his taxi

    Why would the private taxis be banned from Princess Srreet ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    Two week TACO incoming it seems via Fox News. Engineered by Pakistan.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,513

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    I thought we had plenty of petrol, and it was just jet fuel that is the problem?
    Apparently a 20% reduction in oil is going to result in a 100% reduction in petrol supply or some scare story.

    I'm interested in seeing what the price elasticity of petrol will be in this country.

    I've already cut out a few miles of driving myself - not because I cannot get petrol, not because I cannot afford petrol but just because it was an easy change to make.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380

    OSINTtechnical
    @Osinttechnical
    ·
    39m
    A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran is positively reviewing Pakistan’s last minute proposal for a two-week ceasefire
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,141
    Apropos of nothing I heard today that they call Vance 'Maybelline' because of the amount of mascara he wears
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789

    AnneJGP said:

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    The impact of that will be crushing for the very poor. Doubtful if food banks will be given the fuel to provide deliveries (or collections, come to that). The multitude of services supplied by volunteers during covid lockdowns would be impossible too.
    Quite a lot of delivery vehicles for the main supermarkets are electric, so there's some slack there.
    Looks like EV car sales are gonna go through the roof. Just at the time the car manufacturers are pressing Ed M to water down the fines for not selling enough EV cars.

    It's an ill wind etc etc...
    The other factor is that people behave stupidly in a crisis.

    Remember toilet rolls at the start of the pandemic, that was absolutely insane.
    Toilet roll pizza.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,848
    Eabhal said:

    AnneJGP said:

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    The impact of that will be crushing for the very poor. Doubtful if food banks will be given the fuel to provide deliveries (or collections, come to that). The multitude of services supplied by volunteers during covid lockdowns would be impossible too.
    The very poor don’t drive, and have very little gas consumption on average - small flats etc. Direct impacts would be limited, but the wider impacts would obviously be grim. Supermarket prices in particular.

    If the UK hadn’t massively cut bus services we’d be in a much better position.
    On the bright side, at least there's fewer buses to cancel because of the lack of fuel.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,090

    AnneJGP said:

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    The impact of that will be crushing for the very poor. Doubtful if food banks will be given the fuel to provide deliveries (or collections, come to that). The multitude of services supplied by volunteers during covid lockdowns would be impossible too.
    Quite a lot of delivery vehicles for the main supermarkets are electric, so there's some slack there.
    Looks like EV car sales are gonna go through the roof. Just at the time the car manufacturers are pressing Ed M to water down the fines for not selling enough EV cars.

    It's an ill wind etc etc...
    The other factor is that people behave stupidly in a crisis.

    Remember toilet rolls at the start of the pandemic, that was absolutely insane.
    I’d better keep the Reform leaflet that arrived today, in case I run out of toilet roll.
  • Two week TACO incoming it seems via Fox News. Engineered by Pakistan.

    Praise be, if it is true

    Link?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,491

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    And for essential services like doctors and lawyers.
    What's so essential about doctors? Now we all have ChatGPT, we don't need doctors.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,848

    AnneJGP said:

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    The impact of that will be crushing for the very poor. Doubtful if food banks will be given the fuel to provide deliveries (or collections, come to that). The multitude of services supplied by volunteers during covid lockdowns would be impossible too.
    Quite a lot of delivery vehicles for the main supermarkets are electric, so there's some slack there.
    Looks like EV car sales are gonna go through the roof. Just at the time the car manufacturers are pressing Ed M to water down the fines for not selling enough EV cars.

    It's an ill wind etc etc...
    The other factor is that people behave stupidly in a crisis.

    Remember toilet rolls at the start of the pandemic, that was absolutely insane.
    Toilet roll pizza.
    The government will have to bring in rationing, and distribute the overstock of frozen Hawaiian pizzas to each household.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,025
    edited April 7
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    You should add "I say this not as a joke" to all of your fuckwit ideas, so you can't pretend later you were just joking.

    If you think dropping nuclear bombs on Iran is going to lead to the rapid opening of Hormuz you are even dimmer than I thought.
    I have tried to see a way out of this mess, within the bounds of rational expectations of the various crazy actors involved, that does not end with the world in famined turmoil

    You scoff and laugh

    So, OK, you have a go
    Either:

    1. Trump does his usual TACO act, delays, prevaricates, then randomly declares victory (again), the Straits remain shut for a few weeks but gradually return to normal.
    Or
    2. He bombs Iran with all the conventional forces he can muster, all to not much avail, but Iran's ability to control the Strait is weakened and other gulf states find a way to protect shipping and resume their oil exports.

    Neither option is great but both are a lot better than using nuclear weapons.

    Just think about it for a nanosecond: the US uses nukes in an unprovoked attack, what's to stop Russia launching a few at Ukraine, then North Korea lobbing one on Japan.... then Pakistan and India trading nukes.

    You proposal is the worst-worst option by a long margin.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,547
    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    I'm sure insurance companies will be perfectly willing to provide maritime insurance for tankers sailing through an irridatiated war zone
    During the late 19th century, the U.K. government drew up elaborate plans to work with the insurance industry in the event of war.

    Because they identified the withdrawal of shipping insurance in time of war as a critical vulnerability.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,025

    AnneJGP said:

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    The impact of that will be crushing for the very poor. Doubtful if food banks will be given the fuel to provide deliveries (or collections, come to that). The multitude of services supplied by volunteers during covid lockdowns would be impossible too.
    Quite a lot of delivery vehicles for the main supermarkets are electric, so there's some slack there.
    Looks like EV car sales are gonna go through the roof. Just at the time the car manufacturers are pressing Ed M to water down the fines for not selling enough EV cars.

    It's an ill wind etc etc...
    The other factor is that people behave stupidly in a crisis.

    Remember toilet rolls at the start of the pandemic, that was absolutely insane.
    I’d better keep the Reform leaflet that arrived today, in case I run out of toilet roll.
    That Japanese-style toilet we installed in our new house is looking like a great investment ;-)
  • OK here's a link

    🚨 BREAKING: President Trump has received Pakistan's request to extend his bridge and power plant deadline, and a "RESPONSE WILL COME"

    Pakistan claims diplomatic efforts are STRONGLY progressing 👀

    Karoline Leavitt: "The president has been made aware of the proposal, and a response will come."

    HERE WE GO, THEY'RE CAVING!

    Trump has a plan! Iran needs to BE SERIOUS and REASONABLE.


    - the deal is a two week ceasefire and Iran opens the Straits for the same. Let us pray

    https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2041604536067145732?s=20
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    You should add "I say this not as a joke" to all of your fuckwit ideas, so you can't pretend later you were just joking.

    If you think dropping nuclear bombs on Iran is going to lead to the rapid opening of Hormuz you are even dimmer than I thought.
    I have tried to see a way out of this mess, within the bounds of rational expectations of the various crazy actors involved, that does not end with the world in famined turmoil

    You scoff and laugh

    So, OK, you have a go
    Either:

    1. Trump does his usual TACO act, delays, prevaricates, then randomly declares victory (again), the Straits remain shut for a few weeks but gradually return to normal.
    Or
    2. He bombs Iran with all the conventional forces he can muster, all to not much avail, but Iran's ability to control the Strait is weakened and other gulf states find a way to protect shipping and resume their oil exports.

    Neither option is great but both are a lot better than using nuclear weapons.

    Just think about it for a nanosecond: the US uses nukes in an unprovoked attack, what's to stop Russia launching a few at Ukraine, then North Korea lobbing one on Japan.... then Pakistan and India trading nukes.

    You proposal is the worst-worst option by a long margin.
    What’s to stop them doing it now?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,513

    To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.

    We're running out of worst case scenarios.

    Is that before or after you go on holiday?
    Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
    Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
    It's a de facto lockdown.

    If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.

    The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
    I thought we had plenty of petrol, and it was just jet fuel that is the problem?
    Apparently a 20% reduction in oil is going to result in a 100% reduction in petrol supply or some scare story.

    I'm interested in seeing what the price elasticity of petrol will be in this country.

    I've already cut out a few miles of driving myself - not because I cannot get petrol, not because I cannot afford petrol but just because it was an easy change to make.
    And that is why there should be no government subsidy for energy usage - either by lowering prices or increasing welfare.

    If the government want to spend money then let them do so to increase energy supply.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,134
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    I'm sure insurance companies will be perfectly willing to provide maritime insurance for tankers sailing through an irridatiated war zone
    Well there ain't no tankers sailing through a warzone, either, and as long as the fuel, and fertiliser, and all else, is frozen behind the Straits, then the world is staring ar Armageddon. Famine, war, revolutions, disaster, worldwide

    If it is JUST Iran that gets nuked and surrenders, and the war ends, that is arguably better for the world as a whole

    I repeat, I am not trying to troll and roil the site, I am genuinely trying to see the "best" way out of here

    Saying "well Trump and Bibi can both die tonight, and all the mullahs, all at the same time" is all well and good (and it would be great) but it is a fairy tale for children
    As I noted last time you suggested this, there's no guarantee that nukes would end things.
    And if they didn't, the potential outcomes would be the worst of all options.
    So, I put it to you, as well -

    Given where we are, what is simultaneously the least disastrous way out of this, but also plausibly likely to happen - given the apparent insanity of all three actors - Trump, Netanyahu, the Mullahs. Knock yourself out, have a go
    A negotiated settlement is still the way out of this. Boring, I know, but in the end there needs to be a deal.

    I thought Trump liked making deals?
This discussion has been closed.