He declined to say how he is feeling about negotiations: “I can't tell you, because right now we're in heated negotiations.”
He declined to weigh in on Pakistan’s 2 week deadline extension request – saying he’s about to be briefed fully on it - but said: “I can say this - that I know him very well. He's a highly respected man, all over”
To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.
We're running out of worst case scenarios.
Is that before or after you go on holiday?
Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
It's a de facto lockdown.
If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.
The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
I thought we had plenty of petrol, and it was just jet fuel that is the problem?
Apparently a 20% reduction in oil is going to result in a 100% reduction in petrol supply or some scare story.
I'm interested in seeing what the price elasticity of petrol will be in this country.
I've already cut out a few miles of driving myself - not because I cannot get petrol, not because I cannot afford petrol but just because it was an easy change to make.
No
The 20% reduction in fuel supplies is going to cause an international grabbing game for oil which will make COVID times PPE and vaccines look like a tea party at a particularly strict vicarage.
Those who assume we will get our regular supplies from non-Persian Gulf sources are deluding themselves.
In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra
There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted
I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good
You should add "I say this not as a joke" to all of your fuckwit ideas, so you can't pretend later you were just joking.
If you think dropping nuclear bombs on Iran is going to lead to the rapid opening of Hormuz you are even dimmer than I thought.
I have tried to see a way out of this mess, within the bounds of rational expectations of the various crazy actors involved, that does not end with the world in famined turmoil
You scoff and laugh
So, OK, you have a go
Either:
1. Trump does his usual TACO act, delays, prevaricates, then randomly declares victory (again), the Straits remain shut for a few weeks but gradually return to normal. Or 2. He bombs Iran with all the conventional forces he can muster, all to not much avail, but Iran's ability to control the Strait is weakened and other gulf states find a way to protect shipping and resume their oil exports.
Neither option is great but both are a lot better than using nuclear weapons.
Just think about it for a nanosecond: the US uses nukes in an unprovoked attack, what's to stop Russia launching a few at Ukraine, then North Korea lobbing one on Japan.... then Pakistan and India trading nukes.
You proposal is the worst-worst option by a long margin.
I disagree, I think nuclear proliferation is now inevitable, and it will happen everywhere, fast
So the taboo on nukes has gone, anyway. I can see Putin now using one in Ukraine, whatever happens in the MENA
The key is to end the war fast and open the Straits before the global economy collapses. Hence the tactical nuclear option might be the best of several evil options
However there are rumours Trump will TACO again, so let's see
If it comes off (a big if), you know this will be sold as the deal of the century, and then he can move on to something else. Things will probably get extended until he forgets about the whole issue. Iran continues having the means to close the strait meaning the world economy suffers the continuing uncertainty until contingencies come online.
In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra
There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted
I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good
You should add "I say this not as a joke" to all of your fuckwit ideas, so you can't pretend later you were just joking.
If you think dropping nuclear bombs on Iran is going to lead to the rapid opening of Hormuz you are even dimmer than I thought.
I have tried to see a way out of this mess, within the bounds of rational expectations of the various crazy actors involved, that does not end with the world in famined turmoil
You scoff and laugh
So, OK, you have a go
Either:
1. Trump does his usual TACO act, delays, prevaricates, then randomly declares victory (again), the Straits remain shut for a few weeks but gradually return to normal. Or 2. He bombs Iran with all the conventional forces he can muster, all to not much avail, but Iran's ability to control the Strait is weakened and other gulf states find a way to protect shipping and resume their oil exports.
Neither option is great but both are a lot better than using nuclear weapons.
Just think about it for a nanosecond: the US uses nukes in an unprovoked attack, what's to stop Russia launching a few at Ukraine, then North Korea lobbing one on Japan.... then Pakistan and India trading nukes.
You proposal is the worst-worst option by a long margin.
What’s to stop them doing it now?
Precedent, or rather the lack of precedent.
That plus the global opprobrium they would face. But if the world's most powerful nation and erstwhile policeman starts using nukes for a petty regional adventure designed purely to keep the twat in the White House in the news, all constraints are off.
To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.
We're running out of worst case scenarios.
Is that before or after you go on holiday?
Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
'de facto' - no fuel, no travel.
Eabhal will enjoy cycling the empty roads of Edinburgh.
In May 2020 I ran the entire length of Princes Street, onto the Pentlands and back, all in the middle of the road. Glorious. Terrible for STLs, tartan tat, pubs and commercial property.
Ultimately a large proportion of fossil fuel consumption is avoidable - WFH should be encouraged, and in cities like Edinburgh a large majority of commutes can be walked, cycled or use public transport (now largely electric). Gas consumption will fall dramatically as we enter the spring.
A big hit to the economy but life will go on.
Here's a Question
We stayed in the Princess Street Premier Inn recently and the taxi from Waverly dropped us off outside on Princess Street
In order to be certain of a taxi the following morning I booked one on line
When the time came there wasn't any sign of the taxi though it text me to say it was waiting
Shortly after the driver walked into the Premier Inn and said he was not allowed on Princes Street and had parked in a side road
Having mobility issues I struggled to walk to his taxi
Why would the private taxis be banned from Princess Srreet ?
Because said taxi would block or delay thousands of people using buses and trams while it waited for you.
It’s a big issue, particularly outside the Balmoral/Waverley Steps, where the buses often can’t get close enough to the pavement to deploy their ramp to allow disabled access due to illegally parked taxis.
One question though - did you book a PHV or taxi? Taxis only can access Princes Street, but I don’t think they can stop to collect fares.
If it comes off (a big if), you know this will be sold as the deal of the century, and then he can move on to something else. Things will probably get extended until he forgets about the whole issue. Iran continues having the means to close the strait meaning the world economy suffers the continuing uncertainty until contingencies come online.
If it comes off (a big if), you know this will be sold as the deal of the century, and then he can move on to something else. Things will probably get extended until he forgets about the whole issue. Iran continues having the means to close the strait meaning the world economy suffers the continuing uncertainty until contingencies come online.
Exactly my option 1. in response to Leon's idiocy.
In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra
There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted
I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good
You should add "I say this not as a joke" to all of your fuckwit ideas, so you can't pretend later you were just joking.
If you think dropping nuclear bombs on Iran is going to lead to the rapid opening of Hormuz you are even dimmer than I thought.
I have tried to see a way out of this mess, within the bounds of rational expectations of the various crazy actors involved, that does not end with the world in famined turmoil
You scoff and laugh
So, OK, you have a go
Either:
1. Trump does his usual TACO act, delays, prevaricates, then randomly declares victory (again), the Straits remain shut for a few weeks but gradually return to normal. Or 2. He bombs Iran with all the conventional forces he can muster, all to not much avail, but Iran's ability to control the Strait is weakened and other gulf states find a way to protect shipping and resume their oil exports.
Neither option is great but both are a lot better than using nuclear weapons.
Just think about it for a nanosecond: the US uses nukes in an unprovoked attack, what's to stop Russia launching a few at Ukraine, then North Korea lobbing one on Japan.... then Pakistan and India trading nukes.
You proposal is the worst-worst option by a long margin.
I disagree, I think nuclear proliferation is now inevitable, and it will happen everywhere, fast
So the taboo on nukes has gone, anyway. I can see Putin now using one in Ukraine, whatever happens in the MENA
The key is to end the war fast and open the Straits before the global economy collapses. Hence the tactical nuclear option might be the best of several evil options
However there are rumours Trump will TACO again, so let's see
Of course Trump TACOing again may well just prolong the limbo agony for another fortnight. Another 2 weeks of the strait effectively being closed, another 2 weeks of random missiles exploding in the Middle East, another 2 weeks of crackpot Trump social media outbursts, and we're all back here in 14 days going "so what's the next play".
To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.
We're running out of worst case scenarios.
Is that before or after you go on holiday?
Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
It's a de facto lockdown.
If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.
The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
I thought we had plenty of petrol, and it was just jet fuel that is the problem?
Apparently a 20% reduction in oil is going to result in a 100% reduction in petrol supply or some scare story.
I'm interested in seeing what the price elasticity of petrol will be in this country.
I've already cut out a few miles of driving myself - not because I cannot get petrol, not because I cannot afford petrol but just because it was an easy change to make.
And that is why there should be no government subsidy for energy usage - either by lowering prices or increasing welfare.
If the government want to spend money then let them do so to increase energy supply.
So what you’re saying is, Miliband has the right strategy to jack up prices to get domestically sourced energy on stream?
To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.
We're running out of worst case scenarios.
Is that before or after you go on holiday?
Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
It's a de facto lockdown.
If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.
The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
I thought we had plenty of petrol, and it was just jet fuel that is the problem?
Apparently a 20% reduction in oil is going to result in a 100% reduction in petrol supply or some scare story.
I'm interested in seeing what the price elasticity of petrol will be in this country.
I've already cut out a few miles of driving myself - not because I cannot get petrol, not because I cannot afford petrol but just because it was an easy change to make.
No
The 20% reduction in fuel supplies is going to cause an international grabbing game for oil which will make COVID times PPE and vaccines look like a tea party at a particularly strict vicarage.
Those who assume we will get our regular supplies from non-Persian Gulf sources are deluding themselves.
Of course it will lead to energy grabbing.
Why do you assume that the UK will not grab some ?
With the higher cost itself then supressing demand.
Having mobility issues I struggled to walk to his taxi
I've been dealing with a significant back injury that means I can't currently walk for more than about a minute or two without excruciating pain. It has hugely opened my eyes to how much harder life will be for those with reduced mobility if the "just walk/cycle/bus" brigade get their way.
In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra
There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted
I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good
I'm sure insurance companies will be perfectly willing to provide maritime insurance for tankers sailing through an irridatiated war zone
Well there ain't no tankers sailing through a warzone, either, and as long as the fuel, and fertiliser, and all else, is frozen behind the Straits, then the world is staring ar Armageddon. Famine, war, revolutions, disaster, worldwide
If it is JUST Iran that gets nuked and surrenders, and the war ends, that is arguably better for the world as a whole
I repeat, I am not trying to troll and roil the site, I am genuinely trying to see the "best" way out of here
Saying "well Trump and Bibi can both die tonight, and all the mullahs, all at the same time" is all well and good (and it would be great) but it is a fairy tale for children
As I noted last time you suggested this, there's no guarantee that nukes would end things. And if they didn't, the potential outcomes would be the worst of all options.
So, I put it to you, as well -
Given where we are, what is simultaneously the least disastrous way out of this, but also plausibly likely to happen - given the apparent insanity of all three actors - Trump, Netanyahu, the Mullahs. Knock yourself out, have a go
Honestly, I don't know what happens from here.
The rational thing to do, when you've started something really stupid, with no clear prospect of success, and the chance that if you continue, you'll devastate the world economy, potentially for years, if just to stop doing it.
Trump could declare the war over tomorrow. He'd look ridiculous, but his ratings would probably improve. The mullahs would celebrate it as a victory , but it's been something of a disaster for them too. And they remain vulnerable to an insurgency better organised and resourced; they'd quite possibly do some kind of deal.
But Trump isn't really amenable to rational calculation. A narcissist frustrated is unpredictable, and likely to lash out.
He's already trashed his allies in Europe, and seems now to be doing the same in Asia.
So I just don't know. No nuclear war would be better than the alternative.
If it comes off (a big if), you know this will be sold as the deal of the century, and then he can move on to something else. Things will probably get extended until he forgets about the whole issue. Iran continues having the means to close the strait meaning the world economy suffers the continuing uncertainty until contingencies come online.
Exactly my option 1. in response to Leon's idiocy.
I am extrapolating, with clarity. You are just whining about your holidays, and hopecasting nonsense
Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future. To allow diplomacy to run its course, I earnestly request President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks. Pakistan, in all sincerity, requests the Iranian brothers to open Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture. We also urge all warring parties to observe a ceasefire everywhere for two weeks to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war, in the interest of long-term peace and stability in the region.
To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.
We're running out of worst case scenarios.
Is that before or after you go on holiday?
Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
'de facto' - no fuel, no travel.
Eabhal will enjoy cycling the empty roads of Edinburgh.
In May 2020 I ran the entire length of Princes Street, onto the Pentlands and back, all in the middle of the road. Glorious. Terrible for STLs, tartan tat, pubs and commercial property.
Ultimately a large proportion of fossil fuel consumption is avoidable - WFH should be encouraged, and in cities like Edinburgh a large majority of commutes can be walked, cycled or use public transport (now largely electric). Gas consumption will fall dramatically as we enter the spring.
A big hit to the economy but life will go on.
Here's a Question
We stayed in the Princess Street Premier Inn recently and the taxi from Waverly dropped us off outside on Princess Street
In order to be certain of a taxi the following morning I booked one on line
When the time came there wasn't any sign of the taxi though it text me to say it was waiting
Shortly after the driver walked into the Premier Inn and said he was not allowed on Princes Street and had parked in a side road
Having mobility issues I struggled to walk to his taxi
Why would the private taxis be banned from Princess Srreet ?
Because said taxi would block or delay thousands of people using buses and trams while it waited for you.
It’s a big issue, particularly outside the Balmoral/Waverley Steps, where the buses often can’t get close enough to the pavement to deploy their ramp to allow disabled access due to illegally parked taxis.
One question though - did you book a PHV or taxi? Taxis only can access Princes Street, but I don’t think they can stop to collect fares.
It was a PHV but the whole experience at Waverley despite having passenger assist was a nightmare including for my wife
The taxi's are not allowed close to the station making it very difficult for those with mobility issues
And the taxi would not affect the trams and if it is ok for the black cabs why isnt it for other taxis ?
In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra
There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted
I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good
You should add "I say this not as a joke" to all of your fuckwit ideas, so you can't pretend later you were just joking.
If you think dropping nuclear bombs on Iran is going to lead to the rapid opening of Hormuz you are even dimmer than I thought.
I have tried to see a way out of this mess, within the bounds of rational expectations of the various crazy actors involved, that does not end with the world in famined turmoil
You scoff and laugh
So, OK, you have a go
Either:
1. Trump does his usual TACO act, delays, prevaricates, then randomly declares victory (again), the Straits remain shut for a few weeks but gradually return to normal. Or 2. He bombs Iran with all the conventional forces he can muster, all to not much avail, but Iran's ability to control the Strait is weakened and other gulf states find a way to protect shipping and resume their oil exports.
Neither option is great but both are a lot better than using nuclear weapons.
Just think about it for a nanosecond: the US uses nukes in an unprovoked attack, what's to stop Russia launching a few at Ukraine, then North Korea lobbing one on Japan.... then Pakistan and India trading nukes.
You proposal is the worst-worst option by a long margin.
I disagree, I think nuclear proliferation is now inevitable, and it will happen everywhere, fast
So the taboo on nukes has gone, anyway. I can see Putin now using one in Ukraine, whatever happens in the MENA
The key is to end the war fast and open the Straits before the global economy collapses. Hence the tactical nuclear option might be the best of several evil options
However there are rumours Trump will TACO again, so let's see
Of course Trump TACOing again may well just prolong the limbo agony for another fortnight. Another 2 weeks of the strait effectively being closed, another 2 weeks of random missiles exploding in the Middle East, another 2 weeks of crackpot Trump social media outbursts, and we're all back here in 14 days going "so what's the next play".
Depends if Iran continues to block the strait. If they stave off the bombing then they’ve got a ready-made line to spin to the population about how they’ve protected them from the nukes of the Great Satan, and Trump has his face-saving line that it was him threatening annihilation Wot Done It.
As far as off ramps go, it’s relatively plausible. The fly in the ointment being that Iran is now even more of a wounded animal and could seek to lash out again at any given moment. And it retains the power to close the strait whenever it wants, dangling a huge sword over the global economy for the foreseeable future.
If it comes off (a big if), you know this will be sold as the deal of the century, and then he can move on to something else. Things will probably get extended until he forgets about the whole issue. Iran continues having the means to close the strait meaning the world economy suffers the continuing uncertainty until contingencies come online.
Exactly my option 1. in response to Leon's idiocy.
I am extrapolating, with clarity. You are just whining about your holidays, and hopecasting nonsense
In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra
There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted
I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good
You should add "I say this not as a joke" to all of your fuckwit ideas, so you can't pretend later you were just joking.
If you think dropping nuclear bombs on Iran is going to lead to the rapid opening of Hormuz you are even dimmer than I thought.
I have tried to see a way out of this mess, within the bounds of rational expectations of the various crazy actors involved, that does not end with the world in famined turmoil
You scoff and laugh
So, OK, you have a go
Either:
1. Trump does his usual TACO act, delays, prevaricates, then randomly declares victory (again), the Straits remain shut for a few weeks but gradually return to normal. Or 2. He bombs Iran with all the conventional forces he can muster, all to not much avail, but Iran's ability to control the Strait is weakened and other gulf states find a way to protect shipping and resume their oil exports.
Neither option is great but both are a lot better than using nuclear weapons.
Just think about it for a nanosecond: the US uses nukes in an unprovoked attack, what's to stop Russia launching a few at Ukraine, then North Korea lobbing one on Japan.... then Pakistan and India trading nukes.
You proposal is the worst-worst option by a long margin.
I disagree, I think nuclear proliferation is now inevitable, and it will happen everywhere, fast
So the taboo on nukes has gone, anyway. I can see Putin now using one in Ukraine, whatever happens in the MENA
The key is to end the war fast and open the Straits before the global economy collapses. Hence the tactical nuclear option might be the best of several evil options
However there are rumours Trump will TACO again, so let's see
Of course Trump TACOing again may well just prolong the limbo agony for another fortnight. Another 2 weeks of the strait effectively being closed, another 2 weeks of random missiles exploding in the Middle East, another 2 weeks of crackpot Trump social media outbursts, and we're all back here in 14 days going "so what's the next play".
Except that after another 2 weeks of the straits being closed and Iran and the ME randomly destroying infra, we are then 2 weeks closer - much closer - to total global disaster
To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.
We're running out of worst case scenarios.
Is that before or after you go on holiday?
Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
It's a de facto lockdown.
If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.
The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
I thought we had plenty of petrol, and it was just jet fuel that is the problem?
Apparently a 20% reduction in oil is going to result in a 100% reduction in petrol supply or some scare story.
I'm interested in seeing what the price elasticity of petrol will be in this country.
I've already cut out a few miles of driving myself - not because I cannot get petrol, not because I cannot afford petrol but just because it was an easy change to make.
No
The 20% reduction in fuel supplies is going to cause an international grabbing game for oil which will make COVID times PPE and vaccines look like a tea party at a particularly strict vicarage.
Those who assume we will get our regular supplies from non-Persian Gulf sources are deluding themselves.
Of course it will lead to energy grabbing.
Why do you assume that the UK will not grab some ?
With the higher cost itself then supressing demand.
China, for example will outbid us, and probably use some er… aggressive diplomacy to get a discounted rate.
To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.
We're running out of worst case scenarios.
Is that before or after you go on holiday?
Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
It's a de facto lockdown.
If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.
The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
I thought we had plenty of petrol, and it was just jet fuel that is the problem?
Apparently a 20% reduction in oil is going to result in a 100% reduction in petrol supply or some scare story.
I'm interested in seeing what the price elasticity of petrol will be in this country.
I've already cut out a few miles of driving myself - not because I cannot get petrol, not because I cannot afford petrol but just because it was an easy change to make.
No
The 20% reduction in fuel supplies is going to cause an international grabbing game for oil which will make COVID times PPE and vaccines look like a tea party at a particularly strict vicarage.
Those who assume we will get our regular supplies from non-Persian Gulf sources are deluding themselves.
Of course it will lead to energy grabbing.
Why do you assume that the UK will not grab some ?
With the higher cost itself then supressing demand.
Meanwhile renewables and EVs get another big boost.
(Checks new house energy use for March: Electricity from the grid 78 kWh; electricity exported to the grid: 595 kWh. Tries not to feel smug.)
If it comes off (a big if), you know this will be sold as the deal of the century, and then he can move on to something else. Things will probably get extended until he forgets about the whole issue. Iran continues having the means to close the strait meaning the world economy suffers the continuing uncertainty until contingencies come online.
Exactly my option 1. in response to Leon's idiocy.
I am extrapolating, with clarity. You are just whining about your holidays, and hopecasting nonsense
If it comes off (a big if), you know this will be sold as the deal of the century, and then he can move on to something else. Things will probably get extended until he forgets about the whole issue. Iran continues having the means to close the strait meaning the world economy suffers the continuing uncertainty until contingencies come online.
Exactly my option 1. in response to Leon's idiocy.
I am extrapolating, with clarity. You are just whining about your holidays, and hopecasting nonsense
Having mobility issues I struggled to walk to his taxi
I've been dealing with a significant back injury that means I can't currently walk for more than about a minute or two without excruciating pain. It has hugely opened my eyes to how much harder life will be for those with reduced mobility if the "just walk/cycle/bus" brigade get their way.
I am sorry you have mobility issues and it is an eye opener once your mobility is seriously compromised
In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra
There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted
I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good
"...Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days..."
The Straits being reopened to ships sailing through the clouds of fallout, that is. "Would you like some radioactive fuel sir? Top quality!"
‘ The NYT reports that the Israelis "hard-pitched" the Iran War to Trump in February, and this meeting ultimately led to Trump's final decision.
In the meeting, the Israelis said that Iran's ballistic missiles could be destroyed, their grip on the Strait of Hormuz loosened, and the Kurds would flood in to fight Iran, culminating in regime change.
Every Trump advisor pushed back, but President Trump maintained that the regime change wasn't his issue, believing he could dislodge Iran's missiles and grip on the Strait.
General Dan Caine and Sec. Rubio warned that the analysis was nonsense, with the after effects showing that neither the expectation of destroying Iran's missiles nor securing the Strait was achievable.
As a result, the Israelis effectively sold Trump on a war under false pretenses that turned into a conundrum quickly.
Caine noted the Israelis frequently oversell their plans, with time revealing that none of the projected outcomes in Iran came to pass. ’
It's sounds plausible because Israel has been trying to get a US President to attack Iran fully for decades, but only Trump was dumb enough to be talked into this calamity.
Where we stand tonight. Trump's number one goal is reversing a consequence of his illegal war. Regime change and nuclear materiel barely get mentioned now. To achieve this he will at least commit extensive war crimes, and may even break the nuclear taboo that has existed for over 80 years.
This is quite probably the stupidest war in living memory, and yet it has the potential to excalate into the most catastrophic war ever.
Donald Trump will be a history making President, but not in any way he wants.
In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra
There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted
I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good
You should add "I say this not as a joke" to all of your fuckwit ideas, so you can't pretend later you were just joking.
If you think dropping nuclear bombs on Iran is going to lead to the rapid opening of Hormuz you are even dimmer than I thought.
I have tried to see a way out of this mess, within the bounds of rational expectations of the various crazy actors involved, that does not end with the world in famined turmoil
You scoff and laugh
So, OK, you have a go
Either:
1. Trump does his usual TACO act, delays, prevaricates, then randomly declares victory (again), the Straits remain shut for a few weeks but gradually return to normal. Or 2. He bombs Iran with all the conventional forces he can muster, all to not much avail, but Iran's ability to control the Strait is weakened and other gulf states find a way to protect shipping and resume their oil exports.
Neither option is great but both are a lot better than using nuclear weapons.
Just think about it for a nanosecond: the US uses nukes in an unprovoked attack, what's to stop Russia launching a few at Ukraine, then North Korea lobbing one on Japan.... then Pakistan and India trading nukes.
You proposal is the worst-worst option by a long margin.
I disagree, I think nuclear proliferation is now inevitable, and it will happen everywhere, fast
So the taboo on nukes has gone, anyway. I can see Putin now using one in Ukraine, whatever happens in the MENA
The key is to end the war fast and open the Straits before the global economy collapses. Hence the tactical nuclear option might be the best of several evil options
However there are rumours Trump will TACO again, so let's see
Of course Trump TACOing again may well just prolong the limbo agony for another fortnight. Another 2 weeks of the strait effectively being closed, another 2 weeks of random missiles exploding in the Middle East, another 2 weeks of crackpot Trump social media outbursts, and we're all back here in 14 days going "so what's the next play".
Except that after another 2 weeks of the straits being closed and Iran and the ME randomly destroying infra, we are then 2 weeks closer - much closer - to total global disaster
It is being reported Israel wants another 4 weeks bombing of Iran and given Trump, as reported by the NYT, has been led by the nose by them on this (with disastrous consequences) I’d expect more of this lunacy to take place and no ratcheting down.
I’d expect this ends with US boots on the ground for a protracted period of time and a worldwide recession.
Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future. To allow diplomacy to run its course, I earnestly request President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks. Pakistan, in all sincerity, requests the Iranian brothers to open Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture. We also urge all warring parties to observe a ceasefire everywhere for two weeks to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war, in the interest of long-term peace and stability in the region.
I support this proposal by the Pakistani government.
Over the next couple of decades there will be a significant long term economic impact to the US because of the lack of trust and confidence the rest of the world, whether governments, companies or private investors, can sustain in the US story.
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter · 21m BREAKING: Iran has told Pakistan, which is mediating talks with the US, that it believes "it is winning" the war and that they have another 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones in their arsenal.
President Trump's deadline is now less than 4 hours away.
To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.
We're running out of worst case scenarios.
Is that before or after you go on holiday?
Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
It's a de facto lockdown.
If you've not got an EV then you're not going to be able to go anywhere due to the lack of fuel.
The government will have to ration/priortise fuel for things like ambulances and delivery vehicles.
I thought we had plenty of petrol, and it was just jet fuel that is the problem?
Apparently a 20% reduction in oil is going to result in a 100% reduction in petrol supply or some scare story.
I'm interested in seeing what the price elasticity of petrol will be in this country.
I've already cut out a few miles of driving myself - not because I cannot get petrol, not because I cannot afford petrol but just because it was an easy change to make.
No
The 20% reduction in fuel supplies is going to cause an international grabbing game for oil which will make COVID times PPE and vaccines look like a tea party at a particularly strict vicarage.
Those who assume we will get our regular supplies from non-Persian Gulf sources are deluding themselves.
Of course it will lead to energy grabbing.
Why do you assume that the UK will not grab some ?
With the higher cost itself then supressing demand.
China, for example will outbid us, and probably use some er… aggressive diplomacy to get a discounted rate.
To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.
We're running out of worst case scenarios.
Is that before or after you go on holiday?
Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
'de facto' - no fuel, no travel.
Eabhal will enjoy cycling the empty roads of Edinburgh.
In May 2020 I ran the entire length of Princes Street, onto the Pentlands and back, all in the middle of the road. Glorious. Terrible for STLs, tartan tat, pubs and commercial property.
Ultimately a large proportion of fossil fuel consumption is avoidable - WFH should be encouraged, and in cities like Edinburgh a large majority of commutes can be walked, cycled or use public transport (now largely electric). Gas consumption will fall dramatically as we enter the spring.
A big hit to the economy but life will go on.
Here's a Question
We stayed in the Princess Street Premier Inn recently and the taxi from Waverly dropped us off outside on Princess Street
In order to be certain of a taxi the following morning I booked one on line
When the time came there wasn't any sign of the taxi though it text me to say it was waiting
Shortly after the driver walked into the Premier Inn and said he was not allowed on Princes Street and had parked in a side road
Having mobility issues I struggled to walk to his taxi
Why would the private taxis be banned from Princess Srreet ?
Because said taxi would block or delay thousands of people using buses and trams while it waited for you.
It’s a big issue, particularly outside the Balmoral/Waverley Steps, where the buses often can’t get close enough to the pavement to deploy their ramp to allow disabled access due to illegally parked taxis.
One question though - did you book a PHV or taxi? Taxis only can access Princes Street, but I don’t think they can stop to collect fares.
It was a PHV but the whole experience at Waverley despite having passenger assist was a nightmare including for my wife
The taxi's are not allowed close to the station making it very difficult for those with mobility issues
And the taxi would not affect the trams and if it is ok for the black cabs why isnt it for other taxis ?
One problem is the taxis can’t go into the station anymore - Market Street is your best bet. There is something of a campaign to change this.
I think it’s right not to allow PHV, and to restrict tax pick up on Princes Street. Something like 70% of bus passengers use a route that runs along Princes Street, about 250,000 journeys per day. Any delay to allow private transport is going to affect 10s of thousands of people, including thousands of disabled people. And that’s not including the tram.
I think it’s the one street in Edinburgh cyclists shouldn’t be permitted on the same basis (on the condition decent infrastructure is provided adjacent). It’s just too important a public transport corridor.
In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra
There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted
I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good
"...Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days..."
The Straits being reopened to ships sailing through the clouds of fallout, that is. "Would you like some radioactive fuel sir? Top quality!"
Higher energy content than usual.
Though ICE engines probably won't be able to take much advantage.
‘ The NYT reports that the Israelis "hard-pitched" the Iran War to Trump in February, and this meeting ultimately led to Trump's final decision.
In the meeting, the Israelis said that Iran's ballistic missiles could be destroyed, their grip on the Strait of Hormuz loosened, and the Kurds would flood in to fight Iran, culminating in regime change.
Every Trump advisor pushed back, but President Trump maintained that the regime change wasn't his issue, believing he could dislodge Iran's missiles and grip on the Strait.
General Dan Caine and Sec. Rubio warned that the analysis was nonsense, with the after effects showing that neither the expectation of destroying Iran's missiles nor securing the Strait was achievable.
As a result, the Israelis effectively sold Trump on a war under false pretenses that turned into a conundrum quickly.
Caine noted the Israelis frequently oversell their plans, with time revealing that none of the projected outcomes in Iran came to pass. ’
It's sounds plausible because Israel has been trying to get a US President to attack Iran fully for decades, but only Trump was dumb enough to be talked into this calamity.
Where we stand tonight. Trump's number one goal is reversing a consequence of his illegal war. Regime change and nuclear materiel barely get mentioned now. To achieve this he will at least commit extensive war crimes, and may even break the nuclear taboo that has existed for over 80 years.
This is quite probably the stupidest war in living memory, and yet it has the potential to excalate into the most catastrophic war ever.
Donald Trump will be a history making President, but not in any way he wants.
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter · 21m BREAKING: Iran has told Pakistan, which is mediating talks with the US, that it believes "it is winning" the war and that they have another 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones in their arsenal.
President Trump's deadline is now less than 4 hours away.
If Iran has 15,000 missiles then why can it only launch about twelve per day ?
I'm not sure who is more full of crap, Trump or the Ayatollahs.
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter · 21m BREAKING: Iran has told Pakistan, which is mediating talks with the US, that it believes "it is winning" the war and that they have another 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones in their arsenal.
President Trump's deadline is now less than 4 hours away.
Reminder that if he makes a deal he’ll literally announce it on the deadline.
He runs international relations like it’s a reality TV show. There’s a reason the deadline is primetime 8pm.
To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.
We're running out of worst case scenarios.
Is that before or after you go on holiday?
Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
'de facto' - no fuel, no travel.
Eabhal will enjoy cycling the empty roads of Edinburgh.
In May 2020 I ran the entire length of Princes Street, onto the Pentlands and back, all in the middle of the road. Glorious. Terrible for STLs, tartan tat, pubs and commercial property.
Ultimately a large proportion of fossil fuel consumption is avoidable - WFH should be encouraged, and in cities like Edinburgh a large majority of commutes can be walked, cycled or use public transport (now largely electric). Gas consumption will fall dramatically as we enter the spring.
A big hit to the economy but life will go on.
Here's a Question
We stayed in the Princess Street Premier Inn recently and the taxi from Waverly dropped us off outside on Princess Street
In order to be certain of a taxi the following morning I booked one on line
When the time came there wasn't any sign of the taxi though it text me to say it was waiting
Shortly after the driver walked into the Premier Inn and said he was not allowed on Princes Street and had parked in a side road
Having mobility issues I struggled to walk to his taxi
Why would the private taxis be banned from Princess Srreet ?
Because said taxi would block or delay thousands of people using buses and trams while it waited for you.
It’s a big issue, particularly outside the Balmoral/Waverley Steps, where the buses often can’t get close enough to the pavement to deploy their ramp to allow disabled access due to illegally parked taxis.
One question though - did you book a PHV or taxi? Taxis only can access Princes Street, but I don’t think they can stop to collect fares.
It was a PHV but the whole experience at Waverley despite having passenger assist was a nightmare including for my wife
The taxi's are not allowed close to the station making it very difficult for those with mobility issues
And the taxi would not affect the trams and if it is ok for the black cabs why isnt it for other taxis ?
One problem is the taxis can’t go into the station anymore - Market Street is your best bet. There is something of a campaign to change this.
I think it’s right not to allow PHV, and to restrict tax pick up on Princes Street. Something like 70% of bus passengers use a route that runs along Princes Street, about 250,000 journeys per day. Any delay to allow private transport is going to affect 10s of thousands of people, including thousands of disabled people.
Market Street is far too far away from the platforms with elevator queues
I was taken from the train in a wheelchair to Market Street and it was most unpleasant and unacceptable for my 86 year old wife
Sadly having lived and worked in Edinburgh in the early 1960's we did not recognise it and will not return
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter · 21m BREAKING: Iran has told Pakistan, which is mediating talks with the US, that it believes "it is winning" the war and that they have another 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones in their arsenal.
President Trump's deadline is now less than 4 hours away.
If Iran has 15,000 missiles then why can it only launch about twelve per day ?
I'm not sure who is more full of crap, Trump or the Ayatollahs.
In a sense it doesn't matter: if the IRGC think they are winning then they will not negotiate meaningfully.
Having mobility issues I struggled to walk to his taxi
I've been dealing with a significant back injury that means I can't currently walk for more than about a minute or two without excruciating pain. It has hugely opened my eyes to how much harder life will be for those with reduced mobility if the "just walk/cycle/bus" brigade get their way.
Disabled people in Scotland are much more likely to use the bus than the general population - nearly double the proportion of journeys.
And don’t get MattW started on bikes on disabled folk…
Having mobility issues I struggled to walk to his taxi
I've been dealing with a significant back injury that means I can't currently walk for more than about a minute or two without excruciating pain. It has hugely opened my eyes to how much harder life will be for those with reduced mobility if the "just walk/cycle/bus" brigade get their way.
Yes. Mrs.F has mobility difficulties as well. Our nearest bus stop is down a path with 77 steps. Without access to a car she would be housebound.
Having mobility issues I struggled to walk to his taxi
I've been dealing with a significant back injury that means I can't currently walk for more than about a minute or two without excruciating pain. It has hugely opened my eyes to how much harder life will be for those with reduced mobility if the "just walk/cycle/bus" brigade get their way.
Disabled people in Scotland are much more likely to use the bus than the general population - nearly double the proportion of journeys.
And don’t get MattW started on bikes on disabled folk…
I could not contemplate using a bus not least because I could not walk to the bus stop
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter · 21m BREAKING: Iran has told Pakistan, which is mediating talks with the US, that it believes "it is winning" the war and that they have another 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones in their arsenal.
President Trump's deadline is now less than 4 hours away.
If Iran has 15,000 missiles then why can it only launch about twelve per day ?
I'm not sure who is more full of crap, Trump or the Ayatollahs.
Because it's launchers that are targetted not missiles. I don't necessarily believe Iran, but they could have many missiles left, dispersed, but only have a relatively few launchers to fire them from.
US/Israeli forces bombed Iran's Arak aluminum company, the country's largest producer of aluminum, a few moments ago.
Pretty likely the Israeli part of that alliance, I think.
Netanyahu will be inconsolable if there’s a ceasefire.
You assume he'll not find an excuse in 2 days' time to bomb something, whilst claiming it doesn't breach the ceasefire.
I'm just looking at electric cars. I'd been putting it off because I won't be able to drive one to Durness in a day, and don't want one from Temu or a Swasticar. But it looks like their time has come. Tempting to lease instead of just buying given the speed at which they improve.
I know Sean bangs on about how 'sharp' Trump really is, and what a natural and gifted comedian he really is, and I have been skeptical, but this is legitimately hilarious...
In a brief phone call, Pres. Trump told me he couldn't provide any update on the status of talks with the Iranians, but he sharply criticized Iran's call for people to line up as human shields around power plants.
"Totally illegal," he said. "They're not allowed to do that."
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter · 21m BREAKING: Iran has told Pakistan, which is mediating talks with the US, that it believes "it is winning" the war and that they have another 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones in their arsenal.
President Trump's deadline is now less than 4 hours away.
If Iran has 15,000 missiles then why can it only launch about twelve per day ?
I'm not sure who is more full of crap, Trump or the Ayatollahs.
In a sense it doesn't matter: if the IRGC think they are winning then they will not negotiate meaningfully.
It matters because without the ability to back up their threats they can neither negotiate nor fight.
To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.
We're running out of worst case scenarios.
Is that before or after you go on holiday?
Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
'de facto' - no fuel, no travel.
Eabhal will enjoy cycling the empty roads of Edinburgh.
In May 2020 I ran the entire length of Princes Street, onto the Pentlands and back, all in the middle of the road. Glorious. Terrible for STLs, tartan tat, pubs and commercial property.
Ultimately a large proportion of fossil fuel consumption is avoidable - WFH should be encouraged, and in cities like Edinburgh a large majority of commutes can be walked, cycled or use public transport (now largely electric). Gas consumption will fall dramatically as we enter the spring.
A big hit to the economy but life will go on.
Here's a Question
We stayed in the Princess Street Premier Inn recently and the taxi from Waverly dropped us off outside on Princess Street
In order to be certain of a taxi the following morning I booked one on line
When the time came there wasn't any sign of the taxi though it text me to say it was waiting
Shortly after the driver walked into the Premier Inn and said he was not allowed on Princes Street and had parked in a side road
Having mobility issues I struggled to walk to his taxi
Why would the private taxis be banned from Princess Srreet ?
Because said taxi would block or delay thousands of people using buses and trams while it waited for you.
It’s a big issue, particularly outside the Balmoral/Waverley Steps, where the buses often can’t get close enough to the pavement to deploy their ramp to allow disabled access due to illegally parked taxis.
One question though - did you book a PHV or taxi? Taxis only can access Princes Street, but I don’t think they can stop to collect fares.
It was a PHV but the whole experience at Waverley despite having passenger assist was a nightmare including for my wife
The taxi's are not allowed close to the station making it very difficult for those with mobility issues
And the taxi would not affect the trams and if it is ok for the black cabs why isnt it for other taxis ?
One problem is the taxis can’t go into the station anymore - Market Street is your best bet. There is something of a campaign to change this.
I think it’s right not to allow PHV, and to restrict tax pick up on Princes Street. Something like 70% of bus passengers use a route that runs along Princes Street, about 250,000 journeys per day. Any delay to allow private transport is going to affect 10s of thousands of people, including thousands of disabled people.
Market Street is far too far away from the platforms with elevator queues
I was taken from the train in a wheelchair to Market Street and it was most unpleasant and unacceptable for my 86 year old wife
Sadly having lived and worked in Edinburgh in the early 1960's we did not recognise it and will not return
I’d definitely send an email in to Network Rail (or whoever is responsible) to point this out - you’re not the only people struggling with it.
On Princes Street, I’d just ask you to reflect on the thousands of disabled Edinburgh people who rely on our bus service to get around. Having two free lanes open is essential to allow buses to stop and to keep trams etc flowing.
To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.
We're running out of worst case scenarios.
Is that before or after you go on holiday?
Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
'de facto' - no fuel, no travel.
Eabhal will enjoy cycling the empty roads of Edinburgh.
In May 2020 I ran the entire length of Princes Street, onto the Pentlands and back, all in the middle of the road. Glorious. Terrible for STLs, tartan tat, pubs and commercial property.
Ultimately a large proportion of fossil fuel consumption is avoidable - WFH should be encouraged, and in cities like Edinburgh a large majority of commutes can be walked, cycled or use public transport (now largely electric). Gas consumption will fall dramatically as we enter the spring.
A big hit to the economy but life will go on.
Here's a Question
We stayed in the Princess Street Premier Inn recently and the taxi from Waverly dropped us off outside on Princess Street
In order to be certain of a taxi the following morning I booked one on line
When the time came there wasn't any sign of the taxi though it text me to say it was waiting
Shortly after the driver walked into the Premier Inn and said he was not allowed on Princes Street and had parked in a side road
Having mobility issues I struggled to walk to his taxi
Why would the private taxis be banned from Princess Srreet ?
Because said taxi would block or delay thousands of people using buses and trams while it waited for you.
It’s a big issue, particularly outside the Balmoral/Waverley Steps, where the buses often can’t get close enough to the pavement to deploy their ramp to allow disabled access due to illegally parked taxis.
One question though - did you book a PHV or taxi? Taxis only can access Princes Street, but I don’t think they can stop to collect fares.
It was a PHV but the whole experience at Waverley despite having passenger assist was a nightmare including for my wife
The taxi's are not allowed close to the station making it very difficult for those with mobility issues
And the taxi would not affect the trams and if it is ok for the black cabs why isnt it for other taxis ?
Mrs. F used to have to travel to Edinburgh for meetings. She always chose to use Haymarket. She also used Glasgow Central to avoid having to walk to Queen Street. There seems to be more emphasis on supporting the fully disabled, but not enough on helping those with moderate mobility issues.
I know Sean bangs on about how 'sharp' Trump really is, and what a natural and gifted comedian he really is, and I have been skeptical, but this is legitimately hilarious...
In a brief phone call, Pres. Trump told me he couldn't provide any update on the status of talks with the Iranians, but he sharply criticized Iran's call for people to line up as human shields around power plants.
"Totally illegal," he said. "They're not allowed to do that."
He's probably asked his lawyers to sue the Iranian government.
To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.
We're running out of worst case scenarios.
Is that before or after you go on holiday?
Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
'de facto' - no fuel, no travel.
Eabhal will enjoy cycling the empty roads of Edinburgh.
In May 2020 I ran the entire length of Princes Street, onto the Pentlands and back, all in the middle of the road. Glorious. Terrible for STLs, tartan tat, pubs and commercial property.
Ultimately a large proportion of fossil fuel consumption is avoidable - WFH should be encouraged, and in cities like Edinburgh a large majority of commutes can be walked, cycled or use public transport (now largely electric). Gas consumption will fall dramatically as we enter the spring.
A big hit to the economy but life will go on.
Here's a Question
We stayed in the Princess Street Premier Inn recently and the taxi from Waverly dropped us off outside on Princess Street
In order to be certain of a taxi the following morning I booked one on line
When the time came there wasn't any sign of the taxi though it text me to say it was waiting
Shortly after the driver walked into the Premier Inn and said he was not allowed on Princes Street and had parked in a side road
Having mobility issues I struggled to walk to his taxi
Why would the private taxis be banned from Princess Srreet ?
Because said taxi would block or delay thousands of people using buses and trams while it waited for you.
It’s a big issue, particularly outside the Balmoral/Waverley Steps, where the buses often can’t get close enough to the pavement to deploy their ramp to allow disabled access due to illegally parked taxis.
One question though - did you book a PHV or taxi? Taxis only can access Princes Street, but I don’t think they can stop to collect fares.
It was a PHV but the whole experience at Waverley despite having passenger assist was a nightmare including for my wife
The taxi's are not allowed close to the station making it very difficult for those with mobility issues
And the taxi would not affect the trams and if it is ok for the black cabs why isnt it for other taxis ?
One problem is the taxis can’t go into the station anymore - Market Street is your best bet. There is something of a campaign to change this.
I think it’s right not to allow PHV, and to restrict tax pick up on Princes Street. Something like 70% of bus passengers use a route that runs along Princes Street, about 250,000 journeys per day. Any delay to allow private transport is going to affect 10s of thousands of people, including thousands of disabled people.
Market Street is far too far away from the platforms with elevator queues
I was taken from the train in a wheelchair to Market Street and it was most unpleasant and unacceptable for my 86 year old wife
Sadly having lived and worked in Edinburgh in the early 1960's we did not recognise it and will not return
I’d definitely send an email in to Network Rail (or whoever is responsible) to point this out - you’re not the only people struggling with it.
On Princes Street, I’d just ask you to reflect on the thousands of disabled Edinburgh people who rely on our bus service to get around. Having two free lanes open is essential to allow buses to stop and to keep trams etc flowing.
The trams are separate and there are two lanes for buses
It seems that this could unlawful under disability rights but frankly we have given up on our previously lovely City
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter · 21m BREAKING: Iran has told Pakistan, which is mediating talks with the US, that it believes "it is winning" the war and that they have another 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones in their arsenal.
President Trump's deadline is now less than 4 hours away.
If Iran has 15,000 missiles then why can it only launch about twelve per day ?
I'm not sure who is more full of crap, Trump or the Ayatollahs.
Because it's launchers that are targetted not missiles. I don't necessarily believe Iran, but they could have many missiles left, dispersed, but only have a relatively few launchers to fire them from.
In which case those missiles are useless.
Not that they exist although if they did it would mean that Iran has pissed away tens of billions on things it cannot use.
The stain of shame for America when this is all over in 33 months time will last a generation at least.
I spoke to some Canadian friends a few weeks ago, their view is that even if the Dems will the presidency in a landslide in 2028 they will never ever fucking trust the Yanks again.
They ain't getting suckered in and then see a Trump mini me win in 2032.
I doubt any of the US former allies will ever really trust them again. I wouldn't, it wouldn't take much for the Americans to elect another lunatic in double quick time. You can't even be certain that they won't elect Vance in 2028.
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter · 21m BREAKING: Iran has told Pakistan, which is mediating talks with the US, that it believes "it is winning" the war and that they have another 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones in their arsenal.
President Trump's deadline is now less than 4 hours away.
If Iran has 15,000 missiles then why can it only launch about twelve per day ?
I'm not sure who is more full of crap, Trump or the Ayatollahs.
Because it's launchers that are targetted not missiles. I don't necessarily believe Iran, but they could have many missiles left, dispersed, but only have a relatively few launchers to fire them from.
In which case those missiles are useless.
Not that they exist although if they did it would mean that Iran has pissed away tens of billions on things it cannot use.
They are useless is Iran wanted to deter Israel by threatening a large scale attack, Iran probably can't do that now. On the other hand Iran can likely remain a regional pain in the bum by repairing and manufacturing a modest number of launchers indefinitely.
Two week TACO incoming it seems via Fox News. Engineered by Pakistan.
Israel reported to be saying it’s too early and wants to carry on bombing for another 4 weeks.
Trump could probably reclaim some face by strongarming Netenyahu to stop.
Netanyahu is possibly more irresponsible than the madman in the White House.
If Iran and the USA agree to a truce, and Netanyahu breaks it, the world needs to treat Israel as a pariah for as long as he remains in power. That means full sanctions, UN forces protecting Lebanon and Palestine, and Netanyahu in The Hague on trial for war crimes.
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter · 21m BREAKING: Iran has told Pakistan, which is mediating talks with the US, that it believes "it is winning" the war and that they have another 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones in their arsenal.
President Trump's deadline is now less than 4 hours away.
If Iran has 15,000 missiles then why can it only launch about twelve per day ?
I'm not sure who is more full of crap, Trump or the Ayatollahs.
Because it's launchers that are targetted not missiles. I don't necessarily believe Iran, but they could have many missiles left, dispersed, but only have a relatively few launchers to fire them from.
In which case those missiles are useless.
Not that they exist although if they did it would mean that Iran has pissed away tens of billions on things it cannot use.
They are useless is Iran wanted to deter Israel by threatening a large scale attack, Iran probably can't do that now. On the other hand Iran can likely remain a regional pain in the bum by repairing and manufacturing a modest number of launchers indefinitely.
If there’s a ceasefire the Iranian regime comes out of this pretty well. They can claim they fought the US and won.
I don’t care who claims they have won. Everyone has lost. The global economy has been threatened. The USA has lost global support. Iran has suffered major damage to its infrastructure. Lebanon has been invaded. Israel has lost the respect of many of its allies. What a mess!
Two week TACO incoming it seems via Fox News. Engineered by Pakistan.
Israel reported to be saying it’s too early and wants to carry on bombing for another 4 weeks.
Trump could probably reclaim some face by strongarming Netenyahu to stop.
Netanyahu is possibly more irresponsible than the madman in the White House.
If Iran and the USA agree to a truce, and Netanyahu breaks it, the world needs to treat Israel as a pariah for as long as he remains in power. That means full sanctions, UN forces protecting Lebanon and Palestine, and Netanyahu in The Hague on trial for war crimes.
Yes. It’s time for America to repudiate Israel
As long as Israel is led by actual Nazis, America must learn to say NAH
Faytuks News @Faytuks · 22m An Iranian source tells Qatar's Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that Iran is leaning toward accepting a two-week ceasefire "out of respect for the Pakistani mediator... and in order to give diplomacy an additional chance"
Is this the closest we’ve come to nukes since Cuba?
Depends how close it was with Putin a couple of years ago, I guess. The Biden admin certainly thought he was close
There has been a suggestion that Putin was tempted to drop an nuke out at sea as a show of intent and to scare the US and Ukraine into capitulating, in or around September 2022. I don’t think we’ll hear the full story for a number of years yet, but it does appear to have been at least a hypothetical possibility at one point. As to whether it was assessed as a very low risk or otherwise, I don’t think we know.
I confidently predicted back then there was no chance of it happening. While pleased that it didn’t, there is still time for my confidence to have been proved gravely wrong.
To cheer you all up, my firm is predicting major fuel shortages within a few weeks, and a de facto lockdown for the UK starting in May.
We're running out of worst case scenarios.
Is that before or after you go on holiday?
Touch and go, the break is less than a week.
Why on earth would we need to go into lockdown?
'de facto' - no fuel, no travel.
Eabhal will enjoy cycling the empty roads of Edinburgh.
In May 2020 I ran the entire length of Princes Street, onto the Pentlands and back, all in the middle of the road. Glorious. Terrible for STLs, tartan tat, pubs and commercial property.
Ultimately a large proportion of fossil fuel consumption is avoidable - WFH should be encouraged, and in cities like Edinburgh a large majority of commutes can be walked, cycled or use public transport (now largely electric). Gas consumption will fall dramatically as we enter the spring.
A big hit to the economy but life will go on.
Here's a Question
We stayed in the Princess Street Premier Inn recently and the taxi from Waverly dropped us off outside on Princess Street
In order to be certain of a taxi the following morning I booked one on line
When the time came there wasn't any sign of the taxi though it text me to say it was waiting
Shortly after the driver walked into the Premier Inn and said he was not allowed on Princes Street and had parked in a side road
Having mobility issues I struggled to walk to his taxi
Why would the private taxis be banned from Princess Srreet ?
Because said taxi would block or delay thousands of people using buses and trams while it waited for you.
It’s a big issue, particularly outside the Balmoral/Waverley Steps, where the buses often can’t get close enough to the pavement to deploy their ramp to allow disabled access due to illegally parked taxis.
One question though - did you book a PHV or taxi? Taxis only can access Princes Street, but I don’t think they can stop to collect fares.
It was a PHV but the whole experience at Waverley despite having passenger assist was a nightmare including for my wife
The taxi's are not allowed close to the station making it very difficult for those with mobility issues
And the taxi would not affect the trams and if it is ok for the black cabs why isnt it for other taxis ?
One problem is the taxis can’t go into the station anymore - Market Street is your best bet. There is something of a campaign to change this.
I think it’s right not to allow PHV, and to restrict tax pick up on Princes Street. Something like 70% of bus passengers use a route that runs along Princes Street, about 250,000 journeys per day. Any delay to allow private transport is going to affect 10s of thousands of people, including thousands of disabled people.
Market Street is far too far away from the platforms with elevator queues
I was taken from the train in a wheelchair to Market Street and it was most unpleasant and unacceptable for my 86 year old wife
Sadly having lived and worked in Edinburgh in the early 1960's we did not recognise it and will not return
I’d definitely send an email in to Network Rail (or whoever is responsible) to point this out - you’re not the only people struggling with it.
On Princes Street, I’d just ask you to reflect on the thousands of disabled Edinburgh people who rely on our bus service to get around. Having two free lanes open is essential to allow buses to stop and to keep trams etc flowing.
The trams are separate and there are two lanes for buses
It seems that this could unlawful under disability rights but frankly we have given up on our previously lovely City
No, the trams share a lane with the buses. Your taxi would have reduced capacity on Princes Street by 50% while it waited for you.
Over 5 minutes, that’s thousands of people delayed (10s of thousands at rush hour) and a conservative estimate would put around 20% of those as disabled. Even if that’s only 10 seconds each, the total delay across everyone is several hours.
I appreciate how difficult this makes life for you but blocking the most important transport corridor in a major city is not what anyone would describe as a balanced policy. You’d cause more harm to disabled people than you’d prevent.
Disabled people in Scotland are much more likely to use the bus than the general population - nearly double the proportion of journeys.
Disabled people tend to be poor and thus *have* to use the bus because they have no other option. Also, being disabled and having reduced mobility are not necessarily the same thing, lots of disabled people walk just fine.
But I can't walk to the bus stop right now; every journey, short or long has to be done by private vehicle. And I'm rapidly finding out how hard it can be to go many places if you struggle to walk.
Comments
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2191402/us-b-52-bomber-fails-take-off-from-uk-airbase-amid-iran-tensions/amp
These are Trump cues.
Jacqui Heinrich
@JacquiHeinrich
Just had a short call with POTUS:
He declined to say how he is feeling about negotiations: “I can't tell you, because right now we're in heated negotiations.”
He declined to weigh in on Pakistan’s 2 week deadline extension request – saying he’s about to be briefed fully on it - but said: “I can say this - that I know him very well. He's a highly respected man, all over”
https://x.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/2041605565789454658
The 20% reduction in fuel supplies is going to cause an international grabbing game for oil which will make COVID times PPE and vaccines look like a tea party at a particularly strict vicarage.
Those who assume we will get our regular supplies from non-Persian Gulf sources are deluding themselves.
So the taboo on nukes has gone, anyway. I can see Putin now using one in Ukraine, whatever happens in the MENA
The key is to end the war fast and open the Straits before the global economy collapses. Hence the tactical nuclear option might be the best of several evil options
However there are rumours Trump will TACO again, so let's see
That plus the global opprobrium they would face. But if the world's most powerful nation and erstwhile policeman starts using nukes for a petty regional adventure designed purely to keep the twat in the White House in the news, all constraints are off.
One had engine trouble. The other went.
It’s a big issue, particularly outside the Balmoral/Waverley Steps, where the buses often can’t get close enough to the pavement to deploy their ramp to allow disabled access due to illegally parked taxis.
One question though - did you book a PHV or taxi? Taxis only can access Princes Street, but I don’t think they can stop to collect fares.
How many times does this message have to be rammed down American throats.
US/Israeli forces bombed Iran's Arak aluminum company, the country's largest producer of aluminum, a few moments ago.
Now, about this Epstein fellow...
Why do you assume that the UK will not grab some ?
With the higher cost itself then supressing demand.
The rational thing to do, when you've started something really stupid, with no clear prospect of success, and the chance that if you continue, you'll devastate the world economy, potentially for years, if just to stop doing it.
Trump could declare the war over tomorrow.
He'd look ridiculous, but his ratings would probably improve.
The mullahs would celebrate it as a victory , but it's been something of a disaster for them too. And they remain vulnerable to an insurgency better organised and resourced; they'd quite possibly do some kind of deal.
But Trump isn't really amenable to rational calculation. A narcissist frustrated is unpredictable, and likely to lash out.
He's already trashed his allies in Europe, and seems now to be doing the same in Asia.
So I just don't know.
No nuclear war would be better than the alternative.
Shehbaz Sharif
@CMShehbaz
Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future. To allow diplomacy to run its course, I earnestly request President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks. Pakistan, in all sincerity, requests the Iranian brothers to open Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture. We also urge all warring parties to observe a ceasefire everywhere for two weeks to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war, in the interest of long-term peace and stability in the region.
The taxi's are not allowed close to the station making it very difficult for those with mobility issues
And the taxi would not affect the trams and if it is ok for the black cabs why isnt it for other taxis ?
As far as off ramps go, it’s relatively plausible. The fly in the ointment being that Iran is now even more of a wounded animal and could seek to lash out again at any given moment. And it retains the power to close the strait whenever it wants, dangling a huge sword over the global economy for the foreseeable future.
Governor Newsom Press Office
@GovPressOffice
The Vice President is abroad campaigning for a dictator.
The President is threatening to wipe out an entire civilization.
Congress is on recess.
This is a total collapse of American moral leadership — at a historic scale.
https://x.com/GovPressOffice/status/2041565143780171785
Israel became great by fighting short wars with heavy casualties and big results.
(Checks new house energy use for March: Electricity from the grid 78 kWh; electricity exported to the grid: 595 kWh. Tries not to feel smug.)
There are not holidays, they are WORK!
@WarMonitors
·
18m
⚡Iranian official tells Reuters: We are positively considering the proposal for a two-week ceasefire
Netanyahu is possibly more irresponsible than the madman in the White House.
Later
The Straits being reopened to ships sailing through the clouds of fallout, that is. "Would you like some radioactive fuel sir? Top quality!"
Where we stand tonight. Trump's number one goal is reversing a consequence of his illegal war. Regime change and nuclear materiel barely get mentioned now. To achieve this he will at least commit extensive war crimes, and may even break the nuclear taboo that has existed for over 80 years.
This is quite probably the stupidest war in living memory, and yet it has the potential to excalate into the most catastrophic war ever.
Donald Trump will be a history making President, but not in any way he wants.
I’d expect this ends with US boots on the ground for a protracted period of time and a worldwide recession.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
·
21m
BREAKING: Iran has told Pakistan, which is mediating talks with the US, that it believes "it is winning" the war and that they have another 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones in their arsenal.
President Trump's deadline is now less than 4 hours away.
That's one country.
What about all the others ?
Try India, which imports 5x oil what the UK does.
I think it’s right not to allow PHV, and to restrict tax pick up on Princes Street. Something like 70% of bus passengers use a route that runs along Princes Street, about 250,000 journeys per day. Any delay to allow private transport is going to affect 10s of thousands of people, including thousands of disabled people. And that’s not including the tram.
I think it’s the one street in Edinburgh cyclists shouldn’t be permitted on the same basis (on the condition decent infrastructure is provided adjacent). It’s just too important a public transport corridor.
Though ICE engines probably won't be able to take much advantage.
I'm not sure who is more full of crap, Trump or the Ayatollahs.
He runs international relations like it’s a reality TV show. There’s a reason the deadline is primetime 8pm.
I was taken from the train in a wheelchair to Market Street and it was most unpleasant and unacceptable for my 86 year old wife
Sadly having lived and worked in Edinburgh in the early 1960's we did not recognise it and will not return
Well the answer is yes but fortunately he's currently engaged watching a GoT spin-off.
The 🐲 will sort them out..oh..💩
And don’t get MattW started on bikes on disabled folk…
I'm just looking at electric cars. I'd been putting it off because I won't be able to drive one to Durness in a day, and don't want one from Temu or a Swasticar. But it looks like their time has come. Tempting to lease instead of just buying given the speed at which they improve.
@gabegutierrez
In a brief phone call, Pres. Trump told me he couldn't provide any update on the status of talks with the Iranians, but he sharply criticized Iran's call for people to line up as human shields around power plants.
"Totally illegal," he said. "They're not allowed to do that."
🚨 JUST IN: Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is refusing to resign despite direct pressure from Pete Hegseth
On Princes Street, I’d just ask you to reflect on the thousands of disabled Edinburgh people who rely on our bus service to get around. Having two free lanes open is essential to allow buses to stop and to keep trams etc flowing.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/apr/07/iran-war-live-updates-trump-hormuz-threats-deadline-strikes-middle-east-conflict#top-of-blog
22.09 BST
It seems that this could unlawful under disability rights but frankly we have given up on our previously lovely City
Not that they exist although if they did it would mean that Iran has pissed away tens of billions on things it cannot use.
I don't even care about the details at this point.
Depends how close it was with Putin a couple of years ago, I guess. The Biden admin certainly thought he was close
Let them all do so while the rest of the world gets back to normal.
With hopefully the rest of the world taking precautions as to their energy production.
The Saudis can be told to sell Newcastle Utd and spend the proceeds on more oil pipelines.
Although that was due to a misunderstanding and American stealth technology deployed for the first time.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-1983-military-drill-that-nearly-sparked-nuclear-war-with-the-soviets-180979980/
I also wonder what happened to Moniker DiCanio.
As long as Israel is led by actual Nazis, America must learn to say NAH
It doesn't work.
Faytuks News
@Faytuks
·
22m
An Iranian source tells Qatar's Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that Iran is leaning toward accepting a two-week ceasefire "out of respect for the Pakistani mediator... and in order to give diplomacy an additional chance"
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/2041623878280110341
I confidently predicted back then there was no chance of it happening. While pleased that it didn’t, there is still time for my confidence to have been proved gravely wrong.
Over 5 minutes, that’s thousands of people delayed (10s of thousands at rush hour) and a conservative estimate would put around 20% of those as disabled. Even if that’s only 10 seconds each, the total delay across everyone is several hours.
I appreciate how difficult this makes life for you but blocking the most important transport corridor in a major city is not what anyone would describe as a balanced policy. You’d cause more harm to disabled people than you’d prevent.
But I can't walk to the bus stop right now; every journey, short or long has to be done by private vehicle. And I'm rapidly finding out how hard it can be to go many places if you struggle to walk.