I genuinely think that it would be easier for Russia to conquer the Baltic States than the rest of the Donbas.
It would be... but on the other hand, Russia isn't drowning in an excess of men and materiel right now. And occupying the Baltics (which are NATO countries) would be another drain on an already stretched Russian state.
Keir Starmer: where did it all go wrong? Political journalist Lewis Goodall explores why Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government has become so unpopular so quickly, less than two years after winning the biggest landslide in UK election history
I genuinely think that it would be easier for Russia to conquer the Baltic States than the rest of the Donbas.
Why? In the Baltics they would be a Big Soviet Army fighting NATO minus the USA. In Donbass they are a Big Soviet Army fighting a Small Soviet Army with predictable results.
E2A: Pre-SMO, I used to think that NATO would not fight for the Baltics. The USA definitely now would not, but I think Poland and Germany, at least, would. UK... dunno. On the one hand, there are plenty of 1* and up maniacs in the MoD who would be thinking of the glory and post-war book deals but one the other hand no British government can politically survive any significant number of KIAs.
We saw over the "Coalition of the Willing" nonsense that the Europeans are absolutely not willing to fight the Russians without the US holding their hand.
I genuinely think that it would be easier for Russia to conquer the Baltic States than the rest of the Donbas.
It would be... but on the other hand, Russia isn't drowning in an excess of men and materiel right now. And occupying the Baltics (which are NATO countries) would be another drain on an already stretched Russian state.
Vladimir Putin - First leader in Russian history to face a shortage of men?
You're a 69 year old billionaire, successful and popular former governor of your state. Why would you spend your golden years being one of the circle of Trump's White House sycophants ? https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/2037203021629665652
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
Given recent events is it not monumentally embarrassing to accuse people of TDS?
No, because it still very much exists
Trump is a ludicrous narcissist with no morals and potential cognitive issues. He's really bad news as POTUS, and this Iran thing is looking like an epochal blunder, to prove that
But he's not Satan, he's just a twat in the wrong job at a very bad time. Yet we've got people on this thread saying he's "demonically possessed" and much else
It doesn't benefit everyone if you can only view Trump through the lens of psychotic and blistering hatred. You get a warped perspective on reality. I've got members of my family with TDS, it's a real thing. Theyt sound totally nuts when they are talking about him, because even just thinking about him sends them nuts
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
Given recent events is it not monumentally embarrassing to accuse people of TDS?
Trump is a lot more cunning than some people give him credit for. A lot of the crazy stuff he says is just performative. However, I think he has *really* fucked up on this one, and there is a high risk of further miscalculation as he tries various double or quits strategies to get out of it. I don't think TDS accusations are valid in this case.
"According to Barak Ravid, U.S. Vice President JD Vance had a difficult call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday where he said that Israeli assessments for toppling the Iranian regime were not realistic enough, saying "You were too optimistic in your assessments regarding the overthrow of the regime in Iran.""
Which they knew but they wanted to seduce Trump into the pool.
"They'll collapse when they see your big bazooka, Donald. And just think of it. The president who finally sorts out Iran."
Something like that from Netanyahu, I'd have thought. Wily old beast that he is.
Yes, that's what I suspect
Jerusalem played a blinder. The Americans fell for it
None of which is to let Trump off the hook. His gullible vainglorious character made it possible.
From here? Not sure. He'd have stopped and declared victory by about now but the Straits closure has complicated things. I still (just) think a deal is more probable than an invasion or use of nukes. You'd want to be more confident of that in ideal world but this is Trump2World.
I genuinely think that it would be easier for Russia to conquer the Baltic States than the rest of the Donbas.
Can you explain that for the rest of us, please?
Are you implying we woule be unable or unwilling to oppose a Russian attack on Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania? Do you have any evidence for that?
Psychologically I don't think that Europe is prepared to risk tens of thousands of war dead. A way will be found to adjust to Russian expansion rather than stand against it.
Militarily, the assumption had always been that European forces are an adjunct to American forces. I don't think Europe has that much capability on its own. And it has even less confidence.
Military technology and tactics have developed at a rapid rate during the war in Ukraine, and we've seen with the inferior defence against drones in the Middle East, that Ukraine's western partners haven't learned from Ukraine's experience. There's also evidence of this from Ukrainian participation in NATO military exercises where they've defeated the Europeans easily.
If we accept that Ukraine have developed military technology in this war, surpassing Europe but yet unable to defeat Russia and drive them out of Ukraine, it follows logically that Russia have also developed technology and tactics to fight war in a better way than at the start of the war, and so it follows that Russian forces are stronger than European ones.
I don't think the British troops in Estonia would last very long against Russia's Rubikon group. And then what? Starmer will launch conscription to train a new British Army?
"According to Barak Ravid, U.S. Vice President JD Vance had a difficult call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday where he said that Israeli assessments for toppling the Iranian regime were not realistic enough, saying "You were too optimistic in your assessments regarding the overthrow of the regime in Iran.""
Which they knew but they wanted to seduce Trump into the pool.
"They'll collapse when they see your big bazooka, Donald. And just think of it. The president who finally sorts out Iran."
Something like that from Netanyahu, I'd have thought. Wily old beast that he is.
Yes, that's what I suspect
Jerusalem played a blinder. The Americans fell for it
None of which is to let Trump off the hook. His gullible vainglorious character made it possible.
From here? Not sure. He'd have stopped and declared victory by about now but the Straits closure has complicated things. I still (just) think a deal is more probable than an invasion or use of nukes. You'd want to be more confident of that in ideal world but this is Trump2World.
What kind of "deal" ends this? I see no desire for a deal on the Iranian side.
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
Given recent events is it not monumentally embarrassing to accuse people of TDS?
Trump is a lot more cunning than some people give him credit for. A lot of the crazy stuff he says is just performative. However, I think he has *really* fucked up on this one, and there is a high risk of further miscalculation as he tries various double or quits strategies to get out of it. I don't think TDS accusations are valid in this case.
The TDS was @LostPassword saying Trump doesn't care if the Straits of Hormuz stay shut because he can "fix the midterm elections via disenfranchisement"
This is classic TDS. It takes one possible bad thing Trump might do, focuses on it obsessively and angrily, and ignores the reality of the world surrounding it, in a lunatic way
Yes, maybe Trump MIGHT win the midterms with some shenanigans, or he might not, but the fact is if the Straits of Hormuz stay shut (and if the energy infra of the region continues to be degraded) the world will be in anarchic turmoil, to the extent the midterms really won't matter, as chaos sweeps the globe and maybe Israel lobs nukes etc etc. Also a lot of American tech will grind to a halt, lots of Americans could lose their jobs, American farmers will go bust - on and on and on - they're not going to vote for Trump then
It is classic TDS to say Trump doesn't care about a pending global apocalypse because he's focused on his plans for voter fraud
What was your favourite part? Ending the cold war? Surely not delaying the release of the Iran hostages so Carter did not benefit, the Iran-Contra scandal, tripling US debt to $3 trillion?
I genuinely think that it would be easier for Russia to conquer the Baltic States than the rest of the Donbas.
Can you explain that for the rest of us, please?
Are you implying we woule be unable or unwilling to oppose a Russian attack on Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania? Do you have any evidence for that?
Do you have any evidence that we would be both able and willing to oppose a Narvskaya Narodnaya Respublika? That we would oppose any incursion with suitable violence, rather than wring hands over it?
Lithuania might be safer as I imagine the Poles might send the tanks in. But not Estonia or Latvia
I presume issues like this are being discussed at very high levels in NATO and among all European Governments. At the moment, I don't see Russia in the "military colossus" terms some see, indeed, the performance of their forces in the Ukraine has been enlightening but that conflict has and is changing and challenging notions of modern warfare.
We seem to believe and accept NATO is somehow "over" though the evidence for that, beyond rhetoric, is unclear. As we saw even in the Reagan/Thatcher years, America will quite rightly put its own political and strategic interests first. How would the Russian occupation of Estonia be viewed in Washington or elsewhere? It would, I think, galvanise Europeans in a way no one can foresee and we already see in Poland for example the rise of a new strong military.
It's possible, I suppose, the aim of American foreign policy is to try to pull Putin away from China - it's a thought - but the cost of that looks unsettlingly high currently.
I genuinely think that it would be easier for Russia to conquer the Baltic States than the rest of the Donbas.
Can you explain that for the rest of us, please?
Are you implying we woule be unable or unwilling to oppose a Russian attack on Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania? Do you have any evidence for that?
Psychologically I don't think that Europe is prepared to risk tens of thousands of war dead. A way will be found to adjust to Russian expansion rather than stand against it.
Militarily, the assumption had always been that European forces are an adjunct to American forces. I don't think Europe has that much capability on its own. And it has even less confidence.
Military technology and tactics have developed at a rapid rate during the war in Ukraine, and we've seen with the inferior defence against drones in the Middle East, that Ukraine's western partners haven't learned from Ukraine's experience. There's also evidence of this from Ukrainian participation in NATO military exercises where they've defeated the Europeans easily.
If we accept that Ukraine have developed military technology in this war, surpassing Europe but yet unable to defeat Russia and drive them out of Ukraine, it follows logically that Russia have also developed technology and tactics to fight war in a better way than at the start of the war, and so it follows that Russian forces are stronger than European ones.
I don't think the British troops in Estonia would last very long against Russia's Rubikon group. And then what? Starmer will launch conscription to train a new British Army?
Get some Ukrainian help. They want to be part of the EU rather than a province of Russia; we need some military backbone. Sooner or later, Europe has to realise that winning the war in Ukraine is existential for its prosperity. Absent that the Russian problem is never going away; it's just postponed.
And if Putin were directly to attack an EU state, then that would be an end of Orban's veto on EU funding for Ukraine, for a start.
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
Given recent events is it not monumentally embarrassing to accuse people of TDS?
No, because it still very much exists
Trump is a ludicrous narcissist with no morals and potential cognitive issues. He's really bad news as POTUS, and this Iran thing is looking like an epochal blunder, to prove that
But he's not Satan, he's just a twat in the wrong job at a very bad time. Yet we've got people on this thread saying he's "demonically possessed" and much else
It doesn't benefit everyone if you can only view Trump through the lens of psychotic and blistering hatred. You get a warped perspective on reality. I've got members of my family with TDS, it's a real thing. Theyt sound totally nuts when they are talking about him, because even just thinking about him sends them nuts
Given the crushing weight of evidence now accumulated that he's mad and bad to a huge and equal degree it's the people still sane-washing him who sound nuts.
TDS has become a global pandemic and there's a good reason for that. If you have any semblance of a brain and a moral compass you have it. Me, I caught the disease very early on, I'm pretty much the Wuhan bat of this one, and it's a part of my medical history that I'm happy for the world to see.
"According to Barak Ravid, U.S. Vice President JD Vance had a difficult call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday where he said that Israeli assessments for toppling the Iranian regime were not realistic enough, saying "You were too optimistic in your assessments regarding the overthrow of the regime in Iran.""
Which they knew but they wanted to seduce Trump into the pool.
"They'll collapse when they see your big bazooka, Donald. And just think of it. The president who finally sorts out Iran."
Something like that from Netanyahu, I'd have thought. Wily old beast that he is.
Yes, that's what I suspect
Jerusalem played a blinder. The Americans fell for it
None of which is to let Trump off the hook. His gullible vainglorious character made it possible.
From here? Not sure. He'd have stopped and declared victory by about now but the Straits closure has complicated things. I still (just) think a deal is more probable than an invasion or use of nukes. You'd want to be more confident of that in ideal world but this is Trump2World.
What kind of "deal" ends this? I see no desire for a deal on the Iranian side.
We don't know that at all
Is there even an Iranian "side", as in: a coherent leadership at the top, with a certain point of view?
We know their military is working pretty well. It is apparently designed to do that even if the regime is decapitated (as it was). It's called the "mosaic" system, IIRC. Independent IRGC units are given free rein to do what they want, pretty much
But in terms of expressing political deisres, who is doing that in Tehran? Half of them are dead and the other half are probably cowering in bunkers, too scared to use their phones in case they are booby trapped by Mossad
This may indeed be part of the problem. America has no one significant to negotiate WITH
“The right of the party know none of their candidates can win, and the soft left are already getting everything they want, so why bother changing leader?”
Why Labour MPs now believe Starmer will survive the party’s looming election disaster.
God my insight into Labour is good.
The commentariat seems to be coming round to the view that while everyone wants Starmer out, no-one is keen to replace him, in which case I go back to believing Starmer will follow Wilson in taking early retirement.
Said all along, Starmer is safe until at least May 2027.
More likely Autumn 2027
Soft left coup, new Leader opens up chance of Spring 2028 GE.
The lesson of Gordon Brown who waited too long lingers deep
Spring 28
3 years of Reform Councils 2 years of Green Councils Tories effectively extinct
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
Really?
The provisions in the legislation seem quite wide-ranging. Given that Trump still retains the support of a substantial majority of Republicans he doesn't need to disenfranchise many to tip the balance.
And they've been going on about dead and fake voters for so long that they will be able to do it openly and retain the support of their own supporters.
If Trump deals with Russia that's the end of NATO.
We should tell him to get out of his Air Bases immediately, that includes Chagos. If he wants Chagos he can buy it.
In the case of Israel, we should sanction them, cut off all diplomatic relations and trade, turn them in to the parish State they are, until there is positive regime change there.
Phase 2 closer trade and diplomatic ties with China. Offer them Chagos.
That will show the 2 ass holes that the Lion can still roar.
We've nothing militarily to fear from China, Russia ban US have much to fear.
If we have to elect a left Green / Lab /LD / SNP Coalition to do it, so be it.
New World Order
"Give Chagos to China"
Brilliant. Not
I sometimes wonder if you are a mad bot created by @rcs1000 to entertain himself
I maintain we have far less to concern us, this little island, about the military threat of China, than we do USA under Trump / MAGA and Russia under Putin.
The thought of Putin, Trump, Netanyahu in cahoots should terrify Europe and ME States.
The one superpower Trump, Netanyahu and Putin fear militarily is China, especially Putin on his eastern flank.
In terms of military power, there is no reason why a non US NATO European rump should not seek non aggression pact with China, including access to Chagos to the detriment of the US and Russia.
China has no military interest in Europe.
Europe can gain massive Chinese investment far more than USA.
You are thinking if the past, the old imperial past. The old NATO past.
The Trump MAGA US is no ally, Israel is a parish State without regime change, Russia is dying on its ass, China can destroy it from the East, by doing that it neuters Russian aggression in the Balkans.
You may think you are gods gift, like many on the right if UK political spectrum, what is needed is a new perspective of a new world order.
China is that new world order we've notbing to fear military from it, we can gain as the UK ans Europe from a non aggression pact and do nothing to support the US or Israel and definitely not Russia if China decides to flex its muscles.
Think on it.
I know I always make this complaint - but Great Britain is not a little island, it is a very big island - the eighth largest in the world, or, I think, third largest by population.
Someone has done the legwork for you if you're interested.
Revealed: the billionaires who really own London
https://www.the-londoner.co.uk/we-reveal-the-billionaires-who-really-own-london/ ..The system began to change somewhat in 2022. While the practice wasn’t outlawed, the government passed a new rule mandating that any overseas entities that owned UK real estate had to register their real ownership with UK authorities. That disclosure allowed Dan Neidle and the Tax Policy Associates to create a database of all of those properties that they released in January. After seeing their stellar work, we reached out, and Neidle very kindly offered to share the vast swathes of raw data with us. ..
I genuinely think that it would be easier for Russia to conquer the Baltic States than the rest of the Donbas.
Can you explain that for the rest of us, please?
Are you implying we woule be unable or unwilling to oppose a Russian attack on Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania? Do you have any evidence for that?
Psychologically I don't think that Europe is prepared to risk tens of thousands of war dead. A way will be found to adjust to Russian expansion rather than stand against it.
Militarily, the assumption had always been that European forces are an adjunct to American forces. I don't think Europe has that much capability on its own. And it has even less confidence.
Military technology and tactics have developed at a rapid rate during the war in Ukraine, and we've seen with the inferior defence against drones in the Middle East, that Ukraine's western partners haven't learned from Ukraine's experience. There's also evidence of this from Ukrainian participation in NATO military exercises where they've defeated the Europeans easily.
If we accept that Ukraine have developed military technology in this war, surpassing Europe but yet unable to defeat Russia and drive them out of Ukraine, it follows logically that Russia have also developed technology and tactics to fight war in a better way than at the start of the war, and so it follows that Russian forces are stronger than European ones.
I don't think the British troops in Estonia would last very long against Russia's Rubikon group. And then what? Starmer will launch conscription to train a new British Army?
I don't think Russia will send the tanks in. For a start, it hasn't got any left. But it will start doing the escalations, false flag "provocations". We need to respond to them with disproportionate force. If little green men appear in Narva, they die. I'm not sure we would respond appropriately forcefully.
If Trump deals with Russia that's the end of NATO.
We should tell him to get out of his Air Bases immediately, that includes Chagos. If he wants Chagos he can buy it.
In the case of Israel, we should sanction them, cut off all diplomatic relations and trade, turn them in to the parish State they are, until there is positive regime change there.
Phase 2 closer trade and diplomatic ties with China. Offer them Chagos.
That will show the 2 ass holes that the Lion can still roar.
We've nothing militarily to fear from China, Russia ban US have much to fear.
If we have to elect a left Green / Lab /LD / SNP Coalition to do it, so be it.
New World Order
"Give Chagos to China"
Brilliant. Not
I sometimes wonder if you are a mad bot created by @rcs1000 to entertain himself
I maintain we have far less to concern us, this little island, about the military threat of China, than we do USA under Trump / MAGA and Russia under Putin.
The thought of Putin, Trump, Netanyahu in cahoots should terrify Europe and ME States.
The one superpower Trump, Netanyahu and Putin fear militarily is China, especially Putin on his eastern flank.
In terms of military power, there is no reason why a non US NATO European rump should not seek non aggression pact with China, including access to Chagos to the detriment of the US and Russia.
China has no military interest in Europe.
Europe can gain massive Chinese investment far more than USA.
You are thinking if the past, the old imperial past. The old NATO past.
The Trump MAGA US is no ally, Israel is a parish State without regime change, Russia is dying on its ass, China can destroy it from the East, by doing that it neuters Russian aggression in the Balkans.
You may think you are gods gift, like many on the right if UK political spectrum, what is needed is a new perspective of a new world order.
China is that new world order we've notbing to fear military from it, we can gain as the UK ans Europe from a non aggression pact and do nothing to support the US or Israel and definitely not Russia if China decides to flex its muscles.
Think on it.
Yes, but you're also a fucking nutter, so I'll give this invite a pass
Was it Farage or the ex-Navy officer who got pissed as quickly as possible?
Farage. Drank like the Queen Mother on Derby Day apparently.
I've had a drink with Farage. After a Test at the Oval, he was sitting outside enjoying the evening sun and a pint
He was perfectly affable and civilised, and didn't fall over and vomit
I'd far rather drink with him than Starmer, Davey, or the boring Scots guy
Kemi might be fun but annoying (as a drinking partner). Zak might be amusingly mad
Zak doesn't drink.
God, he's so on brand with the Kidz, isn't he? The most boring, joyless generation in human history
Trump also doesn't drink.
Lifelong teetotal non-smoker. So there's no point hoping for something there. It's going to be down to the Constitution and the voters.
I do not wish anyone dead, but there is plentiful evidence that Trump has quite serious medical issues - the strange absences, the bruising on his arms (presumabky from treatment). If my medical pal is right and he has this particular frontal lobe dementia then the prognosis is grim (for Donald) and he could be ousted in a year or less, as unfit
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
Given recent events is it not monumentally embarrassing to accuse people of TDS?
No, because it still very much exists
Trump is a ludicrous narcissist with no morals and potential cognitive issues. He's really bad news as POTUS, and this Iran thing is looking like an epochal blunder, to prove that
But he's not Satan, he's just a twat in the wrong job at a very bad time. Yet we've got people on this thread saying he's "demonically possessed" and much else
It doesn't benefit everyone if you can only view Trump through the lens of psychotic and blistering hatred. You get a warped perspective on reality. I've got members of my family with TDS, it's a real thing. Theyt sound totally nuts when they are talking about him, because even just thinking about him sends them nuts
Have you got a citation for the "demonically possessed"?
People have been accused of TDS for saying:
Tariffs will be an economic disaster He'll abuse human rights in the US (ICE are snatching people off the street and arbitrarily detaining them) He'll ignore US democratic norms, laws and the constitution He'll favour Russia and screw Ukraine
No one even suggested he'd set fire to the Middle East and potentially cause a global economic recession.
At this point in time, I'd say that he has outperformed "TDS" predictions on the down side.
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
Given recent events is it not monumentally embarrassing to accuse people of TDS?
Trump is a lot more cunning than some people give him credit for. A lot of the crazy stuff he says is just performative. However, I think he has *really* fucked up on this one, and there is a high risk of further miscalculation as he tries various double or quits strategies to get out of it. I don't think TDS accusations are valid in this case.
The TDS was @LostPassword saying Trump doesn't care if the Straits of Hormuz stay shut because he can "fix the midterm elections via disenfranchisement"
This is classic TDS. It takes one possible bad thing Trump might do, focuses on it obsessively and angrily, and ignores the reality of the world surrounding it, in a lunatic way
Yes, maybe Trump MIGHT win the midterms with some shenanigans, or he might not, but the fact is if the Straits of Hormuz stay shut (and if the energy infra of the region continues to be degraded) the world will be in anarchic turmoil, to the extent the midterms really won't matter, as chaos sweeps the globe and maybe Israel lobs nukes etc etc. Also a lot of American tech will grind to a halt, lots of Americans could lose their jobs, American farmers will go bust - on and on and on - they're not going to vote for Trump then
It is classic TDS to say Trump doesn't care about a pending global apocalypse because he's focused on his plans for voter fraud
I dunno. Trump has done loads of damage to American farmers - their trade with China, tariffs, abducting their workers, etc - and he hasn't lost their votes.
I think you're making the mistake of analysing Trump as though he's a normal rational politician. He does things for his own, often opaque, sometimes obvious, reasons. He's erratic. Sometimes he backs down quickly and easily - been a while since we heard much about Greenland, lol - and sometimes not.
The idea that he *has* to do something, because of the midterms, like he's a normal politician, is the real derangement. Trump's not normal. You can't understand him in that way.
If Trump deals with Russia that's the end of NATO.
We should tell him to get out of his Air Bases immediately, that includes Chagos. If he wants Chagos he can buy it.
In the case of Israel, we should sanction them, cut off all diplomatic relations and trade, turn them in to the parish State they are, until there is positive regime change there.
Phase 2 closer trade and diplomatic ties with China. Offer them Chagos.
That will show the 2 ass holes that the Lion can still roar.
We've nothing militarily to fear from China, Russia ban US have much to fear.
If we have to elect a left Green / Lab /LD / SNP Coalition to do it, so be it.
New World Order
"Give Chagos to China"
Brilliant. Not
I sometimes wonder if you are a mad bot created by @rcs1000 to entertain himself
I maintain we have far less to concern us, this little island, about the military threat of China, than we do USA under Trump / MAGA and Russia under Putin.
The thought of Putin, Trump, Netanyahu in cahoots should terrify Europe and ME States.
The one superpower Trump, Netanyahu and Putin fear militarily is China, especially Putin on his eastern flank.
In terms of military power, there is no reason why a non US NATO European rump should not seek non aggression pact with China, including access to Chagos to the detriment of the US and Russia.
China has no military interest in Europe.
Europe can gain massive Chinese investment far more than USA.
You are thinking if the past, the old imperial past. The old NATO past.
The Trump MAGA US is no ally, Israel is a parish State without regime change, Russia is dying on its ass, China can destroy it from the East, by doing that it neuters Russian aggression in the Balkans.
You may think you are gods gift, like many on the right if UK political spectrum, what is needed is a new perspective of a new world order.
China is that new world order we've notbing to fear military from it, we can gain as the UK ans Europe from a non aggression pact and do nothing to support the US or Israel and definitely not Russia if China decides to flex its muscles.
Think on it.
I know I always make this complaint - but Great Britain is not a little island, it is a very big island - the eighth largest in the world, or, I think, third largest by population.
Fair play
Medium sized Island
One of the less savoury aspects of the tiff with Trump is the flasher-like exposure of the left's tumescence (totally un-requited it seems) with the PRC. "But those are CHINESE TANKERS" they wimper.
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
Given recent events is it not monumentally embarrassing to accuse people of TDS?
No, because it still very much exists
Trump is a ludicrous narcissist with no morals and potential cognitive issues. He's really bad news as POTUS, and this Iran thing is looking like an epochal blunder, to prove that
But he's not Satan, he's just a twat in the wrong job at a very bad time. Yet we've got people on this thread saying he's "demonically possessed" and much else
It doesn't benefit everyone if you can only view Trump through the lens of psychotic and blistering hatred. You get a warped perspective on reality. I've got members of my family with TDS, it's a real thing. Theyt sound totally nuts when they are talking about him, because even just thinking about him sends them nuts
Have you got a citation for the "demonically possessed"?
People have been accused of TDS for saying:
Tariffs will be an economic disaster He'll abuse human rights in the US (ICE are snatching people off the street and arbitrarily detaining them) He'll ignore US democratic norms, laws and the constitution He'll favour Russia and screw Ukraine
No one even suggested he'd set fire to the Middle East and potentially cause a global economic recession.
At this point in time, I'd say that he has outperformed "TDS" predictions on the down side.
@Sean_F at the start of the thread, And Sean is one of our saner commenters:
"If one believes that demonic possession is a possibility, then [Trump] is a good candidate for it.
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
Given recent events is it not monumentally embarrassing to accuse people of TDS?
No, because it still very much exists
Trump is a ludicrous narcissist with no morals and potential cognitive issues. He's really bad news as POTUS, and this Iran thing is looking like an epochal blunder, to prove that
But he's not Satan, he's just a twat in the wrong job at a very bad time. Yet we've got people on this thread saying he's "demonically possessed" and much else
It doesn't benefit everyone if you can only view Trump through the lens of psychotic and blistering hatred. You get a warped perspective on reality. I've got members of my family with TDS, it's a real thing. Theyt sound totally nuts when they are talking about him, because even just thinking about him sends them nuts
Have you got a citation for the "demonically possessed"?
People have been accused of TDS for saying:
Tariffs will be an economic disaster He'll abuse human rights in the US (ICE are snatching people off the street and arbitrarily detaining them) He'll ignore US democratic norms, laws and the constitution He'll favour Russia and screw Ukraine
No one even suggested he'd set fire to the Middle East and potentially cause a global economic recession.
At this point in time, I'd say that he has outperformed "TDS" predictions on the down side.
TDS has actually inverted. Unless you’re shouting “NUKES” and “BRACE” you’re a ridiculous complacent centrist dad.
I genuinely think that it would be easier for Russia to conquer the Baltic States than the rest of the Donbas.
Can you explain that for the rest of us, please?
Are you implying we woule be unable or unwilling to oppose a Russian attack on Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania? Do you have any evidence for that?
Psychologically I don't think that Europe is prepared to risk tens of thousands of war dead. A way will be found to adjust to Russian expansion rather than stand against it.
Militarily, the assumption had always been that European forces are an adjunct to American forces. I don't think Europe has that much capability on its own. And it has even less confidence.
Military technology and tactics have developed at a rapid rate during the war in Ukraine, and we've seen with the inferior defence against drones in the Middle East, that Ukraine's western partners haven't learned from Ukraine's experience. There's also evidence of this from Ukrainian participation in NATO military exercises where they've defeated the Europeans easily.
If we accept that Ukraine have developed military technology in this war, surpassing Europe but yet unable to defeat Russia and drive them out of Ukraine, it follows logically that Russia have also developed technology and tactics to fight war in a better way than at the start of the war, and so it follows that Russian forces are stronger than European ones.
I don't think the British troops in Estonia would last very long against Russia's Rubikon group. And then what? Starmer will launch conscription to train a new British Army?
Get some Ukrainian help. They want to be part of the EU rather than a province of Russia; we need some military backbone. Sooner or later, Europe has to realise that winning the war in Ukraine is existential for its prosperity. Absent that the Russian problem is never going away; it's just postponed.
And if Putin were directly to attack an EU state, then that would be an end of Orban's veto on EU funding for Ukraine, for a start.
The most plausible way for Europe to defend the Baltic states from a Russian attack would be for Ukraine to break a ceasefire in Ukraine and launch an attack south towards Crimea.
But you'd be asking Ukraine to restart a war that they're exhausted from fighting for so long already.
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
Given recent events is it not monumentally embarrassing to accuse people of TDS?
Trump is a lot more cunning than some people give him credit for. A lot of the crazy stuff he says is just performative. However, I think he has *really* fucked up on this one, and there is a high risk of further miscalculation as he tries various double or quits strategies to get out of it. I don't think TDS accusations are valid in this case.
The TDS was @LostPassword saying Trump doesn't care if the Straits of Hormuz stay shut because he can "fix the midterm elections via disenfranchisement"
This is classic TDS. It takes one possible bad thing Trump might do, focuses on it obsessively and angrily, and ignores the reality of the world surrounding it, in a lunatic way
Yes, maybe Trump MIGHT win the midterms with some shenanigans, or he might not, but the fact is if the Straits of Hormuz stay shut (and if the energy infra of the region continues to be degraded) the world will be in anarchic turmoil, to the extent the midterms really won't matter, as chaos sweeps the globe and maybe Israel lobs nukes etc etc. Also a lot of American tech will grind to a halt, lots of Americans could lose their jobs, American farmers will go bust - on and on and on - they're not going to vote for Trump then
It is classic TDS to say Trump doesn't care about a pending global apocalypse because he's focused on his plans for voter fraud
I dunno. Trump has done loads of damage to American farmers - their trade with China, tariffs, abducting their workers, etc - and he hasn't lost their votes.
I think you're making the mistake of analysing Trump as though he's a normal rational politician. He does things for his own, often opaque, sometimes obvious, reasons. He's erratic. Sometimes he backs down quickly and easily - been a while since we heard much about Greenland, lol - and sometimes not.
The idea that he *has* to do something, because of the midterms, like he's a normal politician, is the real derangement. Trump's not normal. You can't understand him in that way.
Your normalcy bias is showing.
No it's not I'm just not bonkers on this issue, unlike you and others; that's where I am "normal"
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
Given recent events is it not monumentally embarrassing to accuse people of TDS?
No, because it still very much exists
Trump is a ludicrous narcissist with no morals and potential cognitive issues. He's really bad news as POTUS, and this Iran thing is looking like an epochal blunder, to prove that
But he's not Satan, he's just a twat in the wrong job at a very bad time. Yet we've got people on this thread saying he's "demonically possessed" and much else
It doesn't benefit everyone if you can only view Trump through the lens of psychotic and blistering hatred. You get a warped perspective on reality. I've got members of my family with TDS, it's a real thing. Theyt sound totally nuts when they are talking about him, because even just thinking about him sends them nuts
Have you got a citation for the "demonically possessed"?
People have been accused of TDS for saying:
Tariffs will be an economic disaster He'll abuse human rights in the US (ICE are snatching people off the street and arbitrarily detaining them) He'll ignore US democratic norms, laws and the constitution He'll favour Russia and screw Ukraine
No one even suggested he'd set fire to the Middle East and potentially cause a global economic recession.
At this point in time, I'd say that he has outperformed "TDS" predictions on the down side.
@Sean_F at the start of the thread, And Sean is one of our saner commenters:
"If one believes that demonic possession is a possibility, then [Trump] is a good candidate for it.
Get some Ukrainian help. They want to be part of the EU rather than a province of Russia; we need some military backbone.
This can't happen at all under the current regime and not for many years, if ever, under any other.
The Rada is paralysed simultaneously by both corruption and anti-corruption investigations. Zelensky's traditional method of managing and motivating his Servant of the People coalition was, what was known in Ukraine as, 'мотивацию в конверте ' (lit. 'envelope motivation). That is, giving them money. Due to NABU investigations he can no longer do this and the result is paralysis.
The Rada has recently failed to pass the enabling legislation for the IMF loan and for progressing their EU candidature. Nothing positive can happen in this regard until they have regime change because the current junta is exhausted and fractured into incoherence.
Brooke Rollins: "No one has stood more proudly, strongly, courageously for this man, this transformational president, than you all, our farmers and ranchers. I want everyone to get to their feet and just thank him for what he has done. He's the best. The best. So grateful."
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
Given recent events is it not monumentally embarrassing to accuse people of TDS?
No, because it still very much exists
Trump is a ludicrous narcissist with no morals and potential cognitive issues. He's really bad news as POTUS, and this Iran thing is looking like an epochal blunder, to prove that
But he's not Satan, he's just a twat in the wrong job at a very bad time. Yet we've got people on this thread saying he's "demonically possessed" and much else
It doesn't benefit everyone if you can only view Trump through the lens of psychotic and blistering hatred. You get a warped perspective on reality. I've got members of my family with TDS, it's a real thing. Theyt sound totally nuts when they are talking about him, because even just thinking about him sends them nuts
I remember a few years ago some bloke on here thinking that nice Putin got a lot of unfair flak just because he wanted to stand up for western, Christian, white civilisation. It’s that kind of rigorous character judgment we need in these dark days.
"According to Barak Ravid, U.S. Vice President JD Vance had a difficult call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday where he said that Israeli assessments for toppling the Iranian regime were not realistic enough, saying "You were too optimistic in your assessments regarding the overthrow of the regime in Iran.""
Which they knew but they wanted to seduce Trump into the pool.
"They'll collapse when they see your big bazooka, Donald. And just think of it. The president who finally sorts out Iran."
Something like that from Netanyahu, I'd have thought. Wily old beast that he is.
Yes, that's what I suspect
Jerusalem played a blinder. The Americans fell for it
None of which is to let Trump off the hook. His gullible vainglorious character made it possible.
From here? Not sure. He'd have stopped and declared victory by about now but the Straits closure has complicated things. I still (just) think a deal is more probable than an invasion or use of nukes. You'd want to be more confident of that in ideal world but this is Trump2World.
What kind of "deal" ends this? I see no desire for a deal on the Iranian side.
I don't know. But if the US wants out and the Iranians don't to be under prolonged attack (and I'd say both of those things are probably true) then something ought in theory to be possible. The big problem is who the players are. Trump, Iran, Netanyahu. The first is a moron, the second are zealots, the third wants to just keep killing and bombing.
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
Given recent events is it not monumentally embarrassing to accuse people of TDS?
Trump is a lot more cunning than some people give him credit for. A lot of the crazy stuff he says is just performative. However, I think he has *really* fucked up on this one, and there is a high risk of further miscalculation as he tries various double or quits strategies to get out of it. I don't think TDS accusations are valid in this case.
The TDS was @LostPassword saying Trump doesn't care if the Straits of Hormuz stay shut because he can "fix the midterm elections via disenfranchisement"
This is classic TDS. It takes one possible bad thing Trump might do, focuses on it obsessively and angrily, and ignores the reality of the world surrounding it, in a lunatic way
Yes, maybe Trump MIGHT win the midterms with some shenanigans, or he might not, but the fact is if the Straits of Hormuz stay shut (and if the energy infra of the region continues to be degraded) the world will be in anarchic turmoil, to the extent the midterms really won't matter, as chaos sweeps the globe and maybe Israel lobs nukes etc etc. Also a lot of American tech will grind to a halt, lots of Americans could lose their jobs, American farmers will go bust - on and on and on - they're not going to vote for Trump then
It is classic TDS to say Trump doesn't care about a pending global apocalypse because he's focused on his plans for voter fraud
I dunno. Trump has done loads of damage to American farmers - their trade with China, tariffs, abducting their workers, etc - and he hasn't lost their votes.
I think you're making the mistake of analysing Trump as though he's a normal rational politician. He does things for his own, often opaque, sometimes obvious, reasons. He's erratic. Sometimes he backs down quickly and easily - been a while since we heard much about Greenland, lol - and sometimes not.
The idea that he *has* to do something, because of the midterms, like he's a normal politician, is the real derangement. Trump's not normal. You can't understand him in that way.
Your normalcy bias is showing.
No it's not I'm just not bonkers on this issue, unlike you and others; that's where I am "normal"
"Trump is the WORST U.S. President EVER" - discuss.
GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERZ: US AND ISRAEL HAVE NO STRATEGY ON WHAT THEY WANT
Half true
America has no strategy
Israel, by contrast, is forensically focused on fucking up Iran as much as possible, for as long as possible, and hopefully turning it into a failed state that can't bake a loaf let alone build a nuke. And they intend to do this by dragging America deeper into the mire
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
Given recent events is it not monumentally embarrassing to accuse people of TDS?
No, because it still very much exists
Trump is a ludicrous narcissist with no morals and potential cognitive issues. He's really bad news as POTUS, and this Iran thing is looking like an epochal blunder, to prove that
But he's not Satan, he's just a twat in the wrong job at a very bad time. Yet we've got people on this thread saying he's "demonically possessed" and much else
It doesn't benefit everyone if you can only view Trump through the lens of psychotic and blistering hatred. You get a warped perspective on reality. I've got members of my family with TDS, it's a real thing. Theyt sound totally nuts when they are talking about him, because even just thinking about him sends them nuts
Have you got a citation for the "demonically possessed"?
People have been accused of TDS for saying:
Tariffs will be an economic disaster He'll abuse human rights in the US (ICE are snatching people off the street and arbitrarily detaining them) He'll ignore US democratic norms, laws and the constitution He'll favour Russia and screw Ukraine
No one even suggested he'd set fire to the Middle East and potentially cause a global economic recession.
At this point in time, I'd say that he has outperformed "TDS" predictions on the down side.
TDS has actually inverted. Unless you’re shouting “NUKES” and “BRACE” you’re a ridiculous complacent centrist dad.
Brooke Rollins: "No one has stood more proudly, strongly, courageously for this man, this transformational president, than you all, our farmers and ranchers. I want everyone to get to their feet and just thank him for what he has done. He's the best. The best. So grateful."
"According to Barak Ravid, U.S. Vice President JD Vance had a difficult call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday where he said that Israeli assessments for toppling the Iranian regime were not realistic enough, saying "You were too optimistic in your assessments regarding the overthrow of the regime in Iran.""
Which they knew but they wanted to seduce Trump into the pool.
"They'll collapse when they see your big bazooka, Donald. And just think of it. The president who finally sorts out Iran."
Something like that from Netanyahu, I'd have thought. Wily old beast that he is.
Yes, that's what I suspect
Jerusalem played a blinder. The Americans fell for it
None of which is to let Trump off the hook. His gullible vainglorious character made it possible.
From here? Not sure. He'd have stopped and declared victory by about now but the Straits closure has complicated things. I still (just) think a deal is more probable than an invasion or use of nukes. You'd want to be more confident of that in ideal world but this is Trump2World.
What kind of "deal" ends this? I see no desire for a deal on the Iranian side.
I don't know. But if the US wants out and the Iranians don't to be under prolonged attack (and I'd say both of those things are probably true) then something ought in theory to be possible. The big problem is who the players are. Trump, Iran, Netanyahu. The first is a moron, the second are zealots, the third wants to just keep killing and bombing.
The problem with Iran is that their leadership has been killed or is in hiding. How will these non-existent authorities agree a ceasefire. Let alone be able to enforce one?
Brooke Rollins: "No one has stood more proudly, strongly, courageously for this man, this transformational president, than you all, our farmers and ranchers. I want everyone to get to their feet and just thank him for what he has done. He's the best. The best. So grateful."
Get some Ukrainian help. They want to be part of the EU rather than a province of Russia; we need some military backbone.
This can't happen at all under the current regime and not for many years, if ever, under any other.
The Rada is paralysed simultaneously by both corruption and anti-corruption investigations. Zelensky's traditional method of managing and motivating his Servant of the People coalition was, what was known in Ukraine as, 'мотивацию в конверте ' (lit. 'envelope motivation). That is, giving them money. Due to NABU investigations he can no longer do this and the result is paralysis.
The Rada has recently failed to pass the enabling legislation for the IMF loan and for progressing their EU candidature. Nothing positive can happen in this regard until they have regime change because the current junta is exhausted and fractured into incoherence.
I still remember that remarkable hotel I stayed at, in Chernivtsi, in southwest Ukraine, in the second summer of the war
It was incredibly luxurious, and I discovered it opened - OPENED - in the first year of the war. The menu featured caviar, oysters, whole tuna flown in from Tokyo. Next door was a deli selling Cohiba cigars and £300 bottles of Macallan
The clientele was a mix of stunningly beautiful young women, and muscled men with tatts and security guards who owned armoured Bentleys and bespoke Porsches, plus various families with their sons clearly hoping the muscled men could spirit their sons across the nearby Romanian border, in return for LOTS of money
I saw the scale of Ukrainian corruption, there and then. Gave me a new perspective on the war
FWIW the folks I talk to in the oil industry say that if the war continues thru next Friday (ie another week) but then magically ends, then the Philippines (and probably Taiwan) are still going to run out of oil as it’ll still take at least 30 days for the tankers to get from the gulf to Manila
FWIW the folks I talk to in the oil industry say that if the war continues thru next Friday (ie another week) but then magically ends, then the Philippines (and probably Taiwan) are still going to run out of oil as it’ll still take at least 30 days for the tankers to get from the gulf to Manila
Already have friends had to cancel trip to SE Asia. No guarantee they could return.
"According to Barak Ravid, U.S. Vice President JD Vance had a difficult call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday where he said that Israeli assessments for toppling the Iranian regime were not realistic enough, saying "You were too optimistic in your assessments regarding the overthrow of the regime in Iran.""
Which they knew but they wanted to seduce Trump into the pool.
"They'll collapse when they see your big bazooka, Donald. And just think of it. The president who finally sorts out Iran."
Something like that from Netanyahu, I'd have thought. Wily old beast that he is.
Yes, that's what I suspect
Jerusalem played a blinder. The Americans fell for it
None of which is to let Trump off the hook. His gullible vainglorious character made it possible.
From here? Not sure. He'd have stopped and declared victory by about now but the Straits closure has complicated things. I still (just) think a deal is more probable than an invasion or use of nukes. You'd want to be more confident of that in ideal world but this is Trump2World.
What kind of "deal" ends this? I see no desire for a deal on the Iranian side.
I don't know. But if the US wants out and the Iranians don't to be under prolonged attack (and I'd say both of those things are probably true) then something ought in theory to be possible. The big problem is who the players are. Trump, Iran, Netanyahu. The first is a moron, the second are zealots, the third wants to just keep killing and bombing.
The problem with Iran is that their leadership has been killed or is in hiding. How will these non-existent authorities agree a ceasefire. Let alone be able to enforce one?
That is indeed a problem apparently. Not so much that some of the leaders have been killed but more that the regime is extremely deep and diversified in its structures and personnel.
I saw the scale of Ukrainian corruption, there and then. Gave me a new perspective on the war
Bentley Kiev is the third highest performing Bentley dealer in the world. They fucking love them.
ARMOURED Bentleys, as well
Also Rolls Royces like I've never seen before or since, huge things - must have been adapted
Lambos, Maseratis, it was insane. And the women! Ukrainian women are famously stunning and these were the most stunning women in Ukraine, all in one super swish hotel in a relatively obscure but pretty city, conveniently near a border
I think they thought I was maybe a British spy. Didn't seem to bother them as they guzzled their Cristal, every night
NEW: Rubio tells allies Iran war will continue 2-4 more weeks
Wishcasting.
Strength is of three kinds: power of deliberation is intellectual strength; the possession of a prosperous treasury and a strong army is the strength of sovereignty; and martial power is physical strength.
Was it Farage or the ex-Navy officer who got pissed as quickly as possible?
Farage. Drank like the Queen Mother on Derby Day apparently.
I've had a drink with Farage. After a Test at the Oval, he was sitting outside enjoying the evening sun and a pint
He was perfectly affable and civilised, and didn't fall over and vomit
I'd far rather drink with him than Starmer, Davey, or the boring Scots guy
Kemi might be fun but annoying (as a drinking partner). Zak might be amusingly mad
Zak doesn't drink.
God, he's so on brand with the Kidz, isn't he? The most boring, joyless generation in human history
Trump also doesn't drink.
Lifelong teetotal non-smoker. So there's no point hoping for something there. It's going to be down to the Constitution and the voters.
I do not wish anyone dead, but there is plentiful evidence that Trump has quite serious medical issues - the strange absences, the bruising on his arms (presumabky from treatment). If my medical pal is right and he has this particular frontal lobe dementia then the prognosis is grim (for Donald) and he could be ousted in a year or less, as unfit
Like Ronald Reagan wasn't (see, we are on-topic) or more recently Joe Biden. To be cynical it might come down to whether JD Vance wants it more than Marco Rubio.
FWIW the folks I talk to in the oil industry say that if the war continues thru next Friday (ie another week) but then magically ends, then the Philippines (and probably Taiwan) are still going to run out of oil as it’ll still take at least 30 days for the tankers to get from the gulf to Manila
Already have friends had to cancel trip to SE Asia. No guarantee they could return.
My Bangkok resident son is confident of going to the football World Cup this summer.Doesn't seem alarmed by the situation. Concerned, yes; alarmed no.
Brooke Rollins: "No one has stood more proudly, strongly, courageously for this man, this transformational president, than you all, our farmers and ranchers. I want everyone to get to their feet and just thank him for what he has done. He's the best. The best. So grateful."
"According to Barak Ravid, U.S. Vice President JD Vance had a difficult call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday where he said that Israeli assessments for toppling the Iranian regime were not realistic enough, saying "You were too optimistic in your assessments regarding the overthrow of the regime in Iran.""
Which they knew but they wanted to seduce Trump into the pool.
"They'll collapse when they see your big bazooka, Donald. And just think of it. The president who finally sorts out Iran."
Something like that from Netanyahu, I'd have thought. Wily old beast that he is.
Yes, that's what I suspect
Jerusalem played a blinder. The Americans fell for it
None of which is to let Trump off the hook. His gullible vainglorious character made it possible.
From here? Not sure. He'd have stopped and declared victory by about now but the Straits closure has complicated things. I still (just) think a deal is more probable than an invasion or use of nukes. You'd want to be more confident of that in ideal world but this is Trump2World.
What kind of "deal" ends this? I see no desire for a deal on the Iranian side.
I don't know. But if the US wants out and the Iranians don't to be under prolonged attack (and I'd say both of those things are probably true) then something ought in theory to be possible. The big problem is who the players are. Trump, Iran, Netanyahu. The first is a moron, the second are zealots, the third wants to just keep killing and bombing.
The problem with Iran is that their leadership has been killed or is in hiding. How will these non-existent authorities agree a ceasefire. Let alone be able to enforce one?
That's not the only problem. They also want revenge for the killing of Khamenei, and Junior wants assurances that they won't come back and kill him in six months.
Assurances like all the American military bases being closed.
When it comes to Trump, there really is no floor of awful.
There has to come a point, surely, when the US Military acts to remove a traitor as President.
Thankfully, Russia has destroyed so much of its army in Ukraine, and both Ukraine and Poland have now established such strong armed forces, that a Russian attack Westward would be highly problematic.
Trump is doing a good job, generally speaking.
Thats exactly what I thought when I ordered heating oil at 152% increase on the December price last week
Brooke Rollins: "No one has stood more proudly, strongly, courageously for this man, this transformational president, than you all, our farmers and ranchers. I want everyone to get to their feet and just thank him for what he has done. He's the best. The best. So grateful."
But apparently, I'm the one with Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Lol.
It's those without it who have the problem. Not least in assessing what he might or might not do. If you try and apply trad techniques to it you'll be on the wrong page.
FWIW the folks I talk to in the oil industry say that if the war continues thru next Friday (ie another week) but then magically ends, then the Philippines (and probably Taiwan) are still going to run out of oil as it’ll still take at least 30 days for the tankers to get from the gulf to Manila
It's like predictions as to when nuclear fission will be commercially viable: always 30-50 years in the future, but the day never draws nearer.
In this case we have a war that will be over in the next 2-4 weeks perennially.
I saw the scale of Ukrainian corruption, there and then. Gave me a new perspective on the war
Bentley Kiev is the third highest performing Bentley dealer in the world. They fucking love them.
ARMOURED Bentleys, as well
Also Rolls Royces like I've never seen before or since, huge things - must have been adapted
Lambos, Maseratis, it was insane. And the women! Ukrainian women are famously stunning and these were the most stunning women in Ukraine, all in one super swish hotel in a relatively obscure but pretty city, conveniently near a border
I think they thought I was maybe a British spy. Didn't seem to bother them as they guzzled their Cristal, every night
I’m sure I’ve covered the story about me saying that Bentleys are to be driven but Rolls Royce has chauffeurs. Resulting in a significant change to how some rich families in Bulgaria went to Sunday lunch the following weeks
Hundreds of British Medical Association employees are going on strike this weekend, accusing the “hypocritical” union of underpaying its own staff while demanding a 26 per cent rise for doctors.
Nearly 500 office-based employees at the doctors’ union will strike for 48 hours on Friday and Saturday, after being offered a below-inflation pay rise of 2.75 per cent for this year.
Was it Farage or the ex-Navy officer who got pissed as quickly as possible?
Farage. Drank like the Queen Mother on Derby Day apparently.
I've had a drink with Farage. After a Test at the Oval, he was sitting outside enjoying the evening sun and a pint
He was perfectly affable and civilised, and didn't fall over and vomit
I'd far rather drink with him than Starmer, Davey, or the boring Scots guy
Kemi might be fun but annoying (as a drinking partner). Zak might be amusingly mad
Zak doesn't drink.
God, he's so on brand with the Kidz, isn't he? The most boring, joyless generation in human history
Trump also doesn't drink.
Lifelong teetotal non-smoker. So there's no point hoping for something there. It's going to be down to the Constitution and the voters.
I do not wish anyone dead, but there is plentiful evidence that Trump has quite serious medical issues - the strange absences, the bruising on his arms (presumabky from treatment). If my medical pal is right and he has this particular frontal lobe dementia then the prognosis is grim (for Donald) and he could be ousted in a year or less, as unfit
On course to be the first sitting President where cause of death is a surfeit of zinger superchargers
Acquisition and security (of property) are dependent upon peace and industry. Efforts to achieve the results of works undertaken is industry. Absence of disturbance to the enjoyment of the results achieved from works is peace.
Hundreds of British Medical Association employees are going on strike this weekend, accusing the “hypocritical” union of underpaying its own staff while demanding a 26 per cent rise for doctors.
Nearly 500 office-based employees at the doctors’ union will strike for 48 hours on Friday and Saturday, after being offered a below-inflation pay rise of 2.75 per cent for this year.
I'm sure there is some justice in the doctor's case. But we all know that they'll finish up rich. My GP, who's a nice chap. often spends time in our consultations asking about my financial views. (Fair enough of course as I am very very very wise about such things. Well maybe.)
Was it Farage or the ex-Navy officer who got pissed as quickly as possible?
Farage. Drank like the Queen Mother on Derby Day apparently.
I've had a drink with Farage. After a Test at the Oval, he was sitting outside enjoying the evening sun and a pint
He was perfectly affable and civilised, and didn't fall over and vomit
I'd far rather drink with him than Starmer, Davey, or the boring Scots guy
Kemi might be fun but annoying (as a drinking partner). Zak might be amusingly mad
Zak doesn't drink.
God, he's so on brand with the Kidz, isn't he? The most boring, joyless generation in human history
Trump also doesn't drink.
Lifelong teetotal non-smoker. So there's no point hoping for something there. It's going to be down to the Constitution and the voters.
I do not wish anyone dead, but there is plentiful evidence that Trump has quite serious medical issues - the strange absences, the bruising on his arms (presumabky from treatment). If my medical pal is right and he has this particular frontal lobe dementia then the prognosis is grim (for Donald) and he could be ousted in a year or less, as unfit
You know, I am at the point where I just hope it hurts. A lot. And that is really not like me. This evil monster has done so much harm. He deserves some payback.
Comments
Keir Starmer: where did it all go wrong?
Political journalist Lewis Goodall explores why Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government has become so unpopular so quickly, less than two years after winning the biggest landslide in UK election history
Or there's the England match on ITV.
Why would you spend your golden years being one of the circle of Trump's White House sycophants ?
https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/2037203021629665652
Just bizarre.
Trump is a ludicrous narcissist with no morals and potential cognitive issues. He's really bad news as POTUS, and this Iran thing is looking like an epochal blunder, to prove that
But he's not Satan, he's just a twat in the wrong job at a very bad time. Yet we've got people on this thread saying he's "demonically possessed" and much else
It doesn't benefit everyone if you can only view Trump through the lens of psychotic and blistering hatred. You get a warped perspective on reality. I've got members of my family with TDS, it's a real thing. Theyt sound totally nuts when they are talking about him, because even just thinking about him sends them nuts
US Secretary of State Rubio: Iran may decide to set up a tolling system on the Strait of Hormuz.
From here? Not sure. He'd have stopped and declared victory by about now but the Straits closure has complicated things. I still (just) think a deal is more probable than an invasion or use of nukes. You'd want to be more confident of that in ideal world but this is Trump2World.
Militarily, the assumption had always been that European forces are an adjunct to American forces. I don't think Europe has that much capability on its own. And it has even less confidence.
Military technology and tactics have developed at a rapid rate during the war in Ukraine, and we've seen with the inferior defence against drones in the Middle East, that Ukraine's western partners haven't learned from Ukraine's experience. There's also evidence of this from Ukrainian participation in NATO military exercises where they've defeated the Europeans easily.
If we accept that Ukraine have developed military technology in this war, surpassing Europe but yet unable to defeat Russia and drive them out of Ukraine, it follows logically that Russia have also developed technology and tactics to fight war in a better way than at the start of the war, and so it follows that Russian forces are stronger than European ones.
I don't think the British troops in Estonia would last very long against Russia's Rubikon group. And then what? Starmer will launch conscription to train a new British Army?
This is classic TDS. It takes one possible bad thing Trump might do, focuses on it obsessively and angrily, and ignores the reality of the world surrounding it, in a lunatic way
Yes, maybe Trump MIGHT win the midterms with some shenanigans, or he might not, but the fact is if the Straits of Hormuz stay shut (and if the energy infra of the region continues to be degraded) the world will be in anarchic turmoil, to the extent the midterms really won't matter, as chaos sweeps the globe and maybe Israel lobs nukes etc etc. Also a lot of American tech will grind to a halt, lots of Americans could lose their jobs, American farmers will go bust - on and on and on - they're not going to vote for Trump then
It is classic TDS to say Trump doesn't care about a pending global apocalypse because he's focused on his plans for voter fraud
We seem to believe and accept NATO is somehow "over" though the evidence for that, beyond rhetoric, is unclear. As we saw even in the Reagan/Thatcher years, America will quite rightly put its own political and strategic interests first. How would the Russian occupation of Estonia be viewed in Washington or elsewhere? It would, I think, galvanise Europeans in a way no one can foresee and we already see in Poland for example the rise of a new strong military.
It's possible, I suppose, the aim of American foreign policy is to try to pull Putin away from China - it's a thought - but the cost of that looks unsettlingly high currently.
Sooner or later, Europe has to realise that winning the war in Ukraine is existential for its prosperity.
Absent that the Russian problem is never going away; it's just postponed.
And if Putin were directly to attack an EU state, then that would be an end of Orban's veto on EU funding for Ukraine, for a start.
TDS has become a global pandemic and there's a good reason for that. If you have any semblance of a brain and a moral compass you have it. Me, I caught the disease very early on, I'm pretty much the Wuhan bat of this one, and it's a part of my medical history that I'm happy for the world to see.
Is there even an Iranian "side", as in: a coherent leadership at the top, with a certain point of view?
We know their military is working pretty well. It is apparently designed to do that even if the regime is decapitated (as it was). It's called the "mosaic" system, IIRC. Independent IRGC units are given free rein to do what they want, pretty much
But in terms of expressing political deisres, who is doing that in Tehran? Half of them are dead and the other half are probably cowering in bunkers, too scared to use their phones in case they are booby trapped by Mossad
This may indeed be part of the problem. America has no one significant to negotiate WITH
More likely Autumn 2027
Soft left coup, new Leader opens up chance of Spring 2028 GE.
The lesson of Gordon Brown who waited too long lingers deep
Spring 28
3 years of Reform Councils
2 years of Green Councils
Tories effectively extinct
Sir Sadiq set for another term
IT'S OFFICIAL:
“Mr. Lewandowski no longer has a role at DHS.” – DHS spokesperson
The provisions in the legislation seem quite wide-ranging. Given that Trump still retains the support of a substantial majority of Republicans he doesn't need to disenfranchise many to tip the balance.
And they've been going on about dead and fake voters for so long that they will be able to do it openly and retain the support of their own supporters.
Medium sized Island
Revealed: the billionaires who really own London
https://www.the-londoner.co.uk/we-reveal-the-billionaires-who-really-own-london/
..The system began to change somewhat in 2022. While the practice wasn’t outlawed, the government passed a new rule mandating that any overseas entities that owned UK real estate had to register their real ownership with UK authorities. That disclosure allowed Dan Neidle and the Tax Policy Associates to create a database of all of those properties that they released in January. After seeing their stellar work, we reached out, and Neidle very kindly offered to share the vast swathes of raw data with us. ..
Respect
The thing looks like it belongs in Dubai. ///paid.rots.homes If anyone from the IRGC is here.
People have been accused of TDS for saying:
Tariffs will be an economic disaster
He'll abuse human rights in the US (ICE are snatching people off the street and arbitrarily detaining them)
He'll ignore US democratic norms, laws and the constitution
He'll favour Russia and screw Ukraine
No one even suggested he'd set fire to the Middle East and potentially cause a global economic recession.
At this point in time, I'd say that he has outperformed "TDS" predictions on the down side.
I think you're making the mistake of analysing Trump as though he's a normal rational politician. He does things for his own, often opaque, sometimes obvious, reasons. He's erratic. Sometimes he backs down quickly and easily - been a while since we heard much about Greenland, lol - and sometimes not.
The idea that he *has* to do something, because of the midterms, like he's a normal politician, is the real derangement. Trump's not normal. You can't understand him in that way.
Your normalcy bias is showing.
"If one believes that demonic possession is a possibility, then [Trump] is a good candidate for it.
He revels in causing harm."
QED
Also, he is building a ballroom...
But you'd be asking Ukraine to restart a war that they're exhausted from fighting for so long already.
The Rada is paralysed simultaneously by both corruption and anti-corruption investigations. Zelensky's traditional method of managing and motivating his Servant of the People coalition was, what was known in Ukraine as, 'мотивацию в конверте ' (lit. 'envelope motivation). That is, giving them money. Due to NABU investigations he can no longer do this and the result is paralysis.
The Rada has recently failed to pass the enabling legislation for the IMF loan and for progressing their EU candidature. Nothing positive can happen in this regard until they have regime change because the current junta is exhausted and fractured into incoherence.
Brooke Rollins: "No one has stood more proudly, strongly, courageously for this man, this transformational president, than you all, our farmers and ranchers. I want everyone to get to their feet and just thank him for what he has done. He's the best. The best. So grateful."
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mi2moue3mg2z
GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERZ: US AND ISRAEL HAVE NO STRATEGY ON WHAT THEY WANT
America has no strategy
Israel, by contrast, is forensically focused on fucking up Iran as much as possible, for as long as possible, and hopefully turning it into a failed state that can't bake a loaf let alone build a nuke. And they intend to do this by dragging America deeper into the mire
The government confirms HMS DRAGON is now off Cyprus ready to defend British sovereign territory there that was hit with an Iranian drone
25 DAYS AGO
How will these non-existent authorities agree a ceasefire. Let alone be able to enforce one?
It was incredibly luxurious, and I discovered it opened - OPENED - in the first year of the war. The menu featured caviar, oysters, whole tuna flown in from Tokyo. Next door was a deli selling Cohiba cigars and £300 bottles of Macallan
The clientele was a mix of stunningly beautiful young women, and muscled men with tatts and security guards who owned armoured Bentleys and bespoke Porsches, plus various families with their sons clearly hoping the muscled men could spirit their sons across the nearby Romanian border, in return for LOTS of money
I saw the scale of Ukrainian corruption, there and then. Gave me a new perspective on the war
NEW: Rubio tells allies Iran war will continue 2-4 more weeks
@sky.skymarchini.net
FWIW the folks I talk to in the oil industry say that if the war continues thru next Friday (ie another week) but then magically ends, then the Philippines (and probably Taiwan) are still going to run out of oil as it’ll still take at least 30 days for the tankers to get from the gulf to Manila
No guarantee they could return.
https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/2037581117239222624?s=20
Also Rolls Royces like I've never seen before or since, huge things - must have been adapted
Lambos, Maseratis, it was insane. And the women! Ukrainian women are famously stunning and these were the most stunning women in Ukraine, all in one super swish hotel in a relatively obscure but pretty city, conveniently near a border
I think they thought I was maybe a British spy. Didn't seem to bother them as they guzzled their Cristal, every night
Probably Hezbollah - but could have been IRGC directly. They pretty much run Hezbollah as a wholly owned franchise.
Told him; no way I'd go to the US now.
https://bsky.app/profile/vcdgf555.bsky.social/post/3mi2o2ubfhs26
Lol.
🕛 MIDDAY: HOUSE GOP LEADERSHIP DECIDES TO CONTINUE DHS SHUTDOWN
Assurances like all the American military bases being closed.
Why are they flying them in then?
In this case we have a war that will be over in the next 2-4 weeks perennially.
You are batshit crazy.
Update: As of Friday, 303 US troops have been wounded since the start of combat ops targeting Iran, per a defense official.
More than 75% of those related to traumatic brain injury.
Of the 303 injured, 273 have returned to duty, the official added.
10 US service members are still seriously wounded.
13 US troops have been killed in action.
https://x.com/ZcohenCNN/status/2037552545833345198?s=20
Though with drones etc fewer are probably needed than in the past, but still a large mobilisation of manpower should be happening and is not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2gK7f_AViE
26% for me and 2.75% for thee:
Hundreds of British Medical Association employees are going on strike this weekend, accusing the “hypocritical” union of underpaying its own staff while demanding a 26 per cent rise for doctors.
Nearly 500 office-based employees at the doctors’ union will strike for 48 hours on Friday and Saturday, after being offered a below-inflation pay rise of 2.75 per cent for this year.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/bma-union-doctors-staff-strike-pay-zxszc7lj9
Acquisition and security (of property) are dependent upon peace and industry.
Efforts to achieve the results of works undertaken is industry.
Absence of disturbance to the enjoyment of the results achieved from works is peace.
https://www.householddivision.org.uk/trooping-the-colour
Of course prancing around in fancy dress is now regarded as the main role of the British military.
RFM: 28% (+1)
LAB: 19% (-1)
CON: 18% (=)
GRN: 16% (+2)
LDM: 12% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)
Via
@BMGResearch
, 25-26 Mar.
Changes w/ 4-5 Mar.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037596648059044086?s=20
Crimea, WW1, WW2 - all of these featured the early deployment of the polished men, and they were slaughtered.