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What would Ronald Reagan think? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 34,495

    Leon said:

    Dopermean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.

    In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.

    Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
    Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.

    What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)

    Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.

    My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.

    If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.

    Agreed

    Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs

    Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
    The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.

    Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions

    Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
    Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.

    If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.

    Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
    A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
    Given recent events is it not monumentally embarrassing to accuse people of TDS?
    No, because it still very much exists

    Trump is a ludicrous narcissist with no morals and potential cognitive issues. He's really bad news as POTUS, and this Iran thing is looking like an epochal blunder, to prove that

    But he's not Satan, he's just a twat in the wrong job at a very bad time. Yet we've got people on this thread saying he's "demonically possessed" and much else

    It doesn't benefit everyone if you can only view Trump through the lens of psychotic and blistering hatred. You get a warped perspective on reality. I've got members of my family with TDS, it's a real thing. Theyt sound totally nuts when they are talking about him, because even just thinking about him sends them nuts
    I remember a few years ago some bloke on here thinking that nice Putin got a lot of unfair flak just because he wanted to stand up for western, Christian, white civilisation. It’s that kind of rigorous character judgment we need in these dark days.
    Alec Salmond?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,946
    Omnium said:

    I see doctors now take the hypocritic oath.

    26% for me and 2.75% for thee:

    Hundreds of British Medical Association employees are going on strike this weekend, accusing the “hypocritical” union of underpaying its own staff while demanding a 26 per cent rise for doctors.

    Nearly 500 office-based employees at the doctors’ union will strike for 48 hours on Friday and Saturday, after being offered a below-inflation pay rise of 2.75 per cent for this year.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/bma-union-doctors-staff-strike-pay-zxszc7lj9

    I'm sure there is some justice in the doctor's case. But we all know that they'll finish up rich. My GP, who's a nice chap. often spends time in our consultations asking about my financial views. (Fair enough of course as I am very very very wise about such things. Well maybe.)
    The doctor's case is very simple.

    They want their pay today to be the same as it was before the Great Financial Crash Austerity, uprated by RPI.

    Your opinion on whether this is justified will depend on your opinion of inflation index calculation, your opinion on whether doctors were overpaid prior to austerity, what has happened to averages wages since the Financial Crash, whether you think the country can afford well paid doctors, or maybe has to choose between more doctors and higher pay for doctors, etc.

    I've been meaning to compare doctors pay to average earnings, etc, but haven't got around to it yet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,677

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RossKempsell

    The government confirms HMS DRAGON is now off Cyprus ready to defend British sovereign territory there that was hit with an Iranian drone

    25 DAYS AGO

    The drone came from Lebanon.
    Hezbollah? IDF?
    The wreckage was an Iranian drone with Russian components, apparently.

    Probably Hezbollah - but could have been IRGC directly. They pretty much run Hezbollah as a wholly owned franchise.
    [PB pedant mode on]

    I thought the whole point about franchises is that you didn't own them?

    [PB pedant mode off]
  • LeonLeon Posts: 67,360
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (+1)
    LAB: 19% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    GRN: 16% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @BMGResearch
    , 25-26 Mar.
    Changes w/ 4-5 Mar.
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037596648059044086?s=20

    The Reform slide is OVER

    Nigel is BACK

    ONWARDS TO VICTORY!!!!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,779

    Omnium said:

    I see doctors now take the hypocritic oath.

    26% for me and 2.75% for thee:

    Hundreds of British Medical Association employees are going on strike this weekend, accusing the “hypocritical” union of underpaying its own staff while demanding a 26 per cent rise for doctors.

    Nearly 500 office-based employees at the doctors’ union will strike for 48 hours on Friday and Saturday, after being offered a below-inflation pay rise of 2.75 per cent for this year.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/bma-union-doctors-staff-strike-pay-zxszc7lj9

    I'm sure there is some justice in the doctor's case. But we all know that they'll finish up rich. My GP, who's a nice chap. often spends time in our consultations asking about my financial views. (Fair enough of course as I am very very very wise about such things. Well maybe.)
    The doctor's case is very simple.

    They want their pay today to be the same as it was before the Great Financial Crash Austerity, uprated by RPI.

    Your opinion on whether this is justified will depend on your opinion of inflation index calculation, your opinion on whether doctors were overpaid prior to austerity, what has happened to averages wages since the Financial Crash, whether you think the country can afford well paid doctors, or maybe has to choose between more doctors and higher pay for doctors, etc.

    I've been meaning to compare doctors pay to average earnings, etc, but haven't got around to it yet.
    It's been done:


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,779
    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ZcohenCNN

    Update: As of Friday, 303 US troops have been wounded since the start of combat ops targeting Iran, per a defense official.

    More than 75% of those related to traumatic brain injury.

    Of the 303 injured, 273 have returned to duty, the official added.

    10 US service members are still seriously wounded.

    13 US troops have been killed in action.

    https://x.com/ZcohenCNN/status/2037552545833345198?s=20

    75% have been brain injuries? That sounds unusual.
    Concussion presumably.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,687
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (+1)
    LAB: 19% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    GRN: 16% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @BMGResearch
    , 25-26 Mar.
    Changes w/ 4-5 Mar.
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037596648059044086?s=20

    Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,951
    Andy_JS said:

    Sean_F said:

    When it comes to Trump, there really is no floor of awful.

    There has to come a point, surely, when the US Military acts to remove a traitor as President.

    Thankfully, Russia has destroyed so much of its army in Ukraine, and both Ukraine and Poland have now established such strong armed forces, that a Russian attack Westward would be highly problematic.

    Trump is doing a good job, generally speaking.
    Really, he is not. In any field. Perhaps you can suggest some areas where he is doing a good job?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,832
    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ZcohenCNN

    Update: As of Friday, 303 US troops have been wounded since the start of combat ops targeting Iran, per a defense official.

    More than 75% of those related to traumatic brain injury.

    Of the 303 injured, 273 have returned to duty, the official added.

    10 US service members are still seriously wounded.

    13 US troops have been killed in action.

    https://x.com/ZcohenCNN/status/2037552545833345198?s=20

    75% have been brain injuries? That sounds unusual.
    And most of them have returned to duty.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,481
    https://x.com/Faytuks/status/2037589359696777593

    Breaking: The Houthis will release an "important statement" in the coming hours, according to the Houthi-affiliated Al Masirah
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,181
    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    I see doctors now take the hypocritic oath.

    26% for me and 2.75% for thee:

    Hundreds of British Medical Association employees are going on strike this weekend, accusing the “hypocritical” union of underpaying its own staff while demanding a 26 per cent rise for doctors.

    Nearly 500 office-based employees at the doctors’ union will strike for 48 hours on Friday and Saturday, after being offered a below-inflation pay rise of 2.75 per cent for this year.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/bma-union-doctors-staff-strike-pay-zxszc7lj9

    I'm sure there is some justice in the doctor's case. But we all know that they'll finish up rich. My GP, who's a nice chap. often spends time in our consultations asking about my financial views. (Fair enough of course as I am very very very wise about such things. Well maybe.)
    The doctor's case is very simple.

    They want their pay today to be the same as it was before the Great Financial Crash Austerity, uprated by RPI.

    Your opinion on whether this is justified will depend on your opinion of inflation index calculation, your opinion on whether doctors were overpaid prior to austerity, what has happened to averages wages since the Financial Crash, whether you think the country can afford well paid doctors, or maybe has to choose between more doctors and higher pay for doctors, etc.

    I've been meaning to compare doctors pay to average earnings, etc, but haven't got around to it yet.
    It's been done:


    If you add in 2025 data though will look a lot different.
    Thats missing i think a 22% rise over 24/25 and backdated for 23/24?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,946
    edited March 27
    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    I see doctors now take the hypocritic oath.

    26% for me and 2.75% for thee:

    Hundreds of British Medical Association employees are going on strike this weekend, accusing the “hypocritical” union of underpaying its own staff while demanding a 26 per cent rise for doctors.

    Nearly 500 office-based employees at the doctors’ union will strike for 48 hours on Friday and Saturday, after being offered a below-inflation pay rise of 2.75 per cent for this year.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/bma-union-doctors-staff-strike-pay-zxszc7lj9

    I'm sure there is some justice in the doctor's case. But we all know that they'll finish up rich. My GP, who's a nice chap. often spends time in our consultations asking about my financial views. (Fair enough of course as I am very very very wise about such things. Well maybe.)
    The doctor's case is very simple.

    They want their pay today to be the same as it was before the Great Financial Crash Austerity, uprated by RPI.

    Your opinion on whether this is justified will depend on your opinion of inflation index calculation, your opinion on whether doctors were overpaid prior to austerity, what has happened to averages wages since the Financial Crash, whether you think the country can afford well paid doctors, or maybe has to choose between more doctors and higher pay for doctors, etc.

    I've been meaning to compare doctors pay to average earnings, etc, but haven't got around to it yet.
    It's been done:


    That's from before the pay award Labour gave them in 2024.

    But it's a good graph and does justify that pay award.

    I saw a version that included the pay award from Labour, but it was vs RPI, so showed doctors still down a lot. It didn't have the comparison with other workers either.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,067
    Barnesian said:

    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ZcohenCNN

    Update: As of Friday, 303 US troops have been wounded since the start of combat ops targeting Iran, per a defense official.

    More than 75% of those related to traumatic brain injury.

    Of the 303 injured, 273 have returned to duty, the official added.

    10 US service members are still seriously wounded.

    13 US troops have been killed in action.

    https://x.com/ZcohenCNN/status/2037552545833345198?s=20

    75% have been brain injuries? That sounds unusual.
    And most of them have returned to duty.
    Concussion?
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,332

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    I see doctors now take the hypocritic oath.

    26% for me and 2.75% for thee:

    Hundreds of British Medical Association employees are going on strike this weekend, accusing the “hypocritical” union of underpaying its own staff while demanding a 26 per cent rise for doctors.

    Nearly 500 office-based employees at the doctors’ union will strike for 48 hours on Friday and Saturday, after being offered a below-inflation pay rise of 2.75 per cent for this year.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/bma-union-doctors-staff-strike-pay-zxszc7lj9

    I'm sure there is some justice in the doctor's case. But we all know that they'll finish up rich. My GP, who's a nice chap. often spends time in our consultations asking about my financial views. (Fair enough of course as I am very very very wise about such things. Well maybe.)
    The doctor's case is very simple.

    They want their pay today to be the same as it was before the Great Financial Crash Austerity, uprated by RPI.

    Your opinion on whether this is justified will depend on your opinion of inflation index calculation, your opinion on whether doctors were overpaid prior to austerity, what has happened to averages wages since the Financial Crash, whether you think the country can afford well paid doctors, or maybe has to choose between more doctors and higher pay for doctors, etc.

    I've been meaning to compare doctors pay to average earnings, etc, but haven't got around to it yet.
    It's been done:


    That's from before the pay award Labour gave them in 2024.

    But it's a good graph and does justify that pay award.

    I saw a version that included the pay award from Labour, but it was vs RPI, so showed doctors still down a lot. It didn't have the comparison with other workers either.
    The flat productivity in the public sector says otherwise.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,832
    Israel claims that Iran presents an existential threat.
    Regardless of Iranian threats, that is clearly nonsense. Israel has nukes and the backing of the US.

    However for the first time in its existence, it is facing a possible existential threat, namely the removal of US support.
    Israel is a small country of about 10 million people without significant natural resources, surrounded by enemies. It needs the US.

    The polls in the US are moving decisively against support for Israel, particularly among the young.
    I don't think Israelis, the majority of whom support the war against Iran, are aware of this potential threat.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,332
    Barnesian said:

    Israel claims that Iran presents an existential threat.
    Regardless of Iranian threats, that is clearly nonsense. Israel has nukes and the backing of the US.

    However for the first time in its existence, it is facing a possible existential threat, namely the removal of US support.
    Israel is a small country of about 10 million people without significant natural resources, surrounded by enemies. It needs the US.

    The polls in the US are moving decisively against support for Israel, particularly among the young.
    I don't think Israelis, the majority of whom support the war against Iran, are aware of this potential threat.

    Israel, it could be argued, are an existential threat to Iran.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 67,360
    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,514
    Barnesian said:

    Israel claims that Iran presents an existential threat.
    Regardless of Iranian threats, that is clearly nonsense. Israel has nukes and the backing of the US.

    However for the first time in its existence, it is facing a possible existential threat, namely the removal of US support.
    Israel is a small country of about 10 million people without significant natural resources, surrounded by enemies. It needs the US.

    The polls in the US are moving decisively against support for Israel, particularly among the young.
    I don't think Israelis, the majority of whom support the war against Iran, are aware of this potential threat.

    They probably are. Hence this is probably their last chance to get American backing for this kind of war.

    Even Bibi has been talking about weening Israel off US military aid
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,481
    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,944
    edited March 27
    Good evening all.
    Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient.
    Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley)
    Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either.
    If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former?
    Maybe a lot of near misses await......
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,946
    Barnesian said:

    Israel claims that Iran presents an existential threat.
    Regardless of Iranian threats, that is clearly nonsense. Israel has nukes and the backing of the US.

    However for the first time in its existence, it is facing a possible existential threat, namely the removal of US support.
    Israel is a small country of about 10 million people without significant natural resources, surrounded by enemies. It needs the US.

    The polls in the US are moving decisively against support for Israel, particularly among the young.
    I don't think Israelis, the majority of whom support the war against Iran, are aware of this potential threat.

    Suppose the US does remove its support from Israel. Suppose that - with weapons from China - Israel's neighbours upgrade their armed forces.

    How much hand-winging will there be in Europe when the Arab States manage to do what they failed to do in earlier conflicts and destroy Israel, trigger a nuclear exchange, murder vast numbers of Jews and send the rest fleeing for sanctuary?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 135,014
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (+1)
    LAB: 19% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    GRN: 16% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @BMGResearch
    , 25-26 Mar.
    Changes w/ 4-5 Mar.
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037596648059044086?s=20

    The Reform slide is OVER

    Nigel is BACK

    ONWARDS TO VICTORY!!!!
    Yes, Farage PM with an overall majority, just, on today's BMG poll with Nowcast.

    Gives Reform 326 MPs, Labour 90, LDs 75, Tories 45, SNP 43 and Greens 34 and PC 12

    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,950
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (+1)
    LAB: 19% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    GRN: 16% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @BMGResearch
    , 25-26 Mar.
    Changes w/ 4-5 Mar.
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037596648059044086?s=20

    The Reform slide is OVER

    Nigel is BACK

    ONWARDS TO VICTORY!!!!
    Yes, Farage PM with an overall majority, just, on today's BMG poll with Nowcast.

    Gives Reform 326 MPs, Labour 90, LDs 75, Tories 45, SNP 43 and Greens 34 and PC 12

    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
    Farage will not be PM though I expect you will be disappointed
  • LeonLeon Posts: 67,360
    edited March 27

    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
    Yes, as the EU itself surges to the "robust" rightwing, Labour are going to look painfully isolated on culture and migration issues, yet still yearning to Rejoin a much more rightwing Europe. Weird
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,650
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @fintwitter.bsky.social‬

    GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERZ: US AND ISRAEL HAVE NO STRATEGY ON WHAT THEY WANT

    Half true

    America has no strategy

    Israel, by contrast, is forensically focused on fucking up Iran as much as possible, for as long as possible, and hopefully turning it into a failed state that can't bake a loaf let alone build a nuke. And they intend to do this by dragging America deeper into the mire
    Some truth in this I fear.

    Bibi is looking at himself in a historical context (like VVP).

    He is already the longest serving PM in Israeli history (18 years, and counting) and as a war leader could transform the Middle East by extending Israel's geographical footprint, destroying her historic enemies, and delivering regime change in Iran, which might lead to an effective alliance with the Saudis and Iran, underpinned by client states in Jordan and Lebanon.

    And he gets to avoid being prosecuted.

    Not a bad legacy from his POV.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,779

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    I see doctors now take the hypocritic oath.

    26% for me and 2.75% for thee:

    Hundreds of British Medical Association employees are going on strike this weekend, accusing the “hypocritical” union of underpaying its own staff while demanding a 26 per cent rise for doctors.

    Nearly 500 office-based employees at the doctors’ union will strike for 48 hours on Friday and Saturday, after being offered a below-inflation pay rise of 2.75 per cent for this year.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/bma-union-doctors-staff-strike-pay-zxszc7lj9

    I'm sure there is some justice in the doctor's case. But we all know that they'll finish up rich. My GP, who's a nice chap. often spends time in our consultations asking about my financial views. (Fair enough of course as I am very very very wise about such things. Well maybe.)
    The doctor's case is very simple.

    They want their pay today to be the same as it was before the Great Financial Crash Austerity, uprated by RPI.

    Your opinion on whether this is justified will depend on your opinion of inflation index calculation, your opinion on whether doctors were overpaid prior to austerity, what has happened to averages wages since the Financial Crash, whether you think the country can afford well paid doctors, or maybe has to choose between more doctors and higher pay for doctors, etc.

    I've been meaning to compare doctors pay to average earnings, etc, but haven't got around to it yet.
    It's been done:


    That's from before the pay award Labour gave them in 2024.

    But it's a good graph and does justify that pay award.

    I saw a version that included the pay award from Labour, but it was vs RPI, so showed doctors still down a lot. It didn't have the comparison with other workers either.
    The 2024 pay award didn't come close to closing that gap.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,951
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly

    "According to Barak Ravid, U.S. Vice President JD Vance had a difficult call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday where he said that Israeli assessments for toppling the Iranian regime were not realistic enough, saying "You were too optimistic in your assessments regarding the overthrow of the regime in Iran.""

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2037498630932746692?s=20

    Which they knew but they wanted to seduce Trump into the pool.

    "They'll collapse when they see your big bazooka, Donald. And just think of it. The president who finally sorts out Iran."

    Something like that from Netanyahu, I'd have thought. Wily old beast that he is.
    Yes, that's what I suspect

    Jerusalem played a blinder. The American fell for it
    Corrected it for you
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 135,014

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (+1)
    LAB: 19% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    GRN: 16% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @BMGResearch
    , 25-26 Mar.
    Changes w/ 4-5 Mar.
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037596648059044086?s=20

    The Reform slide is OVER

    Nigel is BACK

    ONWARDS TO VICTORY!!!!
    Yes, Farage PM with an overall majority, just, on today's BMG poll with Nowcast.

    Gives Reform 326 MPs, Labour 90, LDs 75, Tories 45, SNP 43 and Greens 34 and PC 12

    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
    Farage will not be PM though I expect you will be disappointed
    At the moment he will be unless massive anti Reform tactical voting
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,946
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    I see doctors now take the hypocritic oath.

    26% for me and 2.75% for thee:

    Hundreds of British Medical Association employees are going on strike this weekend, accusing the “hypocritical” union of underpaying its own staff while demanding a 26 per cent rise for doctors.

    Nearly 500 office-based employees at the doctors’ union will strike for 48 hours on Friday and Saturday, after being offered a below-inflation pay rise of 2.75 per cent for this year.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/bma-union-doctors-staff-strike-pay-zxszc7lj9

    I'm sure there is some justice in the doctor's case. But we all know that they'll finish up rich. My GP, who's a nice chap. often spends time in our consultations asking about my financial views. (Fair enough of course as I am very very very wise about such things. Well maybe.)
    The doctor's case is very simple.

    They want their pay today to be the same as it was before the Great Financial Crash Austerity, uprated by RPI.

    Your opinion on whether this is justified will depend on your opinion of inflation index calculation, your opinion on whether doctors were overpaid prior to austerity, what has happened to averages wages since the Financial Crash, whether you think the country can afford well paid doctors, or maybe has to choose between more doctors and higher pay for doctors, etc.

    I've been meaning to compare doctors pay to average earnings, etc, but haven't got around to it yet.
    It's been done:


    That's from before the pay award Labour gave them in 2024.

    But it's a good graph and does justify that pay award.

    I saw a version that included the pay award from Labour, but it was vs RPI, so showed doctors still down a lot. It didn't have the comparison with other workers either.
    The 2024 pay award didn't come close to closing that gap.
    By my Maths it closed about two-thirds of it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,894
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RossKempsell

    The government confirms HMS DRAGON is now off Cyprus ready to defend British sovereign territory there that was hit with an Iranian drone

    25 DAYS AGO

    The drone came from Lebanon.
    Hezbollah? IDF?
    The wreckage was an Iranian drone with Russian components, apparently.

    Probably Hezbollah - but could have been IRGC directly. They pretty much run Hezbollah as a wholly owned franchise.
    [PB pedant mode on]

    I thought the whole point about franchises is that you didn't own them?

    [PB pedant mode off]
    There's a variant where you franchise for tax/liability purposes, but wholly own the resulting separate companies
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,332

    Barnesian said:

    Israel claims that Iran presents an existential threat.
    Regardless of Iranian threats, that is clearly nonsense. Israel has nukes and the backing of the US.

    However for the first time in its existence, it is facing a possible existential threat, namely the removal of US support.
    Israel is a small country of about 10 million people without significant natural resources, surrounded by enemies. It needs the US.

    The polls in the US are moving decisively against support for Israel, particularly among the young.
    I don't think Israelis, the majority of whom support the war against Iran, are aware of this potential threat.

    They probably are. Hence this is probably their last chance to get American backing for this kind of war.

    Even Bibi has been talking about weening Israel off US military aid
    The Ugandans offered their support so he can have some Ugandan relations there.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,332
    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,950
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (+1)
    LAB: 19% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    GRN: 16% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @BMGResearch
    , 25-26 Mar.
    Changes w/ 4-5 Mar.
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037596648059044086?s=20

    The Reform slide is OVER

    Nigel is BACK

    ONWARDS TO VICTORY!!!!
    Yes, Farage PM with an overall majority, just, on today's BMG poll with Nowcast.

    Gives Reform 326 MPs, Labour 90, LDs 75, Tories 45, SNP 43 and Greens 34 and PC 12

    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
    Farage will not be PM though I expect you will be disappointed
    At the moment he will be unless massive anti Reform tactical voting
    Not even now
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,578
    Evening,

    Please give me some good news.

    Love'n'kisses,

    solarflare
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,332
    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    I see doctors now take the hypocritic oath.

    26% for me and 2.75% for thee:

    Hundreds of British Medical Association employees are going on strike this weekend, accusing the “hypocritical” union of underpaying its own staff while demanding a 26 per cent rise for doctors.

    Nearly 500 office-based employees at the doctors’ union will strike for 48 hours on Friday and Saturday, after being offered a below-inflation pay rise of 2.75 per cent for this year.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/bma-union-doctors-staff-strike-pay-zxszc7lj9

    I'm sure there is some justice in the doctor's case. But we all know that they'll finish up rich. My GP, who's a nice chap. often spends time in our consultations asking about my financial views. (Fair enough of course as I am very very very wise about such things. Well maybe.)
    The doctor's case is very simple.

    They want their pay today to be the same as it was before the Great Financial Crash Austerity, uprated by RPI.

    Your opinion on whether this is justified will depend on your opinion of inflation index calculation, your opinion on whether doctors were overpaid prior to austerity, what has happened to averages wages since the Financial Crash, whether you think the country can afford well paid doctors, or maybe has to choose between more doctors and higher pay for doctors, etc.

    I've been meaning to compare doctors pay to average earnings, etc, but haven't got around to it yet.
    It's been done:


    If you add in 2025 data though will look a lot different.
    Thats missing i think a 22% rise over 24/25 and backdated for 23/24?
    Full fact has a different take to the less than impartial one presented here.

    https://fullfact.org/health/bma-resident-doctors-pay-hci/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,950
    edited March 27
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
    France and other European countries have implimented it not least for security issues
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 135,014
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    I see doctors now take the hypocritic oath.

    26% for me and 2.75% for thee:

    Hundreds of British Medical Association employees are going on strike this weekend, accusing the “hypocritical” union of underpaying its own staff while demanding a 26 per cent rise for doctors.

    Nearly 500 office-based employees at the doctors’ union will strike for 48 hours on Friday and Saturday, after being offered a below-inflation pay rise of 2.75 per cent for this year.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/bma-union-doctors-staff-strike-pay-zxszc7lj9

    I'm sure there is some justice in the doctor's case. But we all know that they'll finish up rich. My GP, who's a nice chap. often spends time in our consultations asking about my financial views. (Fair enough of course as I am very very very wise about such things. Well maybe.)
    The doctor's case is very simple.

    They want their pay today to be the same as it was before the Great Financial Crash Austerity, uprated by RPI.

    Your opinion on whether this is justified will depend on your opinion of inflation index calculation, your opinion on whether doctors were overpaid prior to austerity, what has happened to averages wages since the Financial Crash, whether you think the country can afford well paid doctors, or maybe has to choose between more doctors and higher pay for doctors, etc.

    I've been meaning to compare doctors pay to average earnings, etc, but haven't got around to it yet.
    It's been done:


    That's from before the pay award Labour gave them in 2024.

    But it's a good graph and does justify that pay award.

    I saw a version that included the pay award from Labour, but it was vs RPI, so showed doctors still down a lot. It didn't have the comparison with other workers either.
    The 2024 pay award didn't come close to closing that gap.
    3.5% payrise for GPs just announced, average UK payrise lower between 3-3.49%
    https://www.rcn.org.uk/news-and-events/news/uk-gp-nursing-pay-what-the-ddrb-announcement-means-for-you-260326

    https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/uk-employers-see-2026-pay-rises-3-35-range-survey-shows-2026-02-02/


    Hence 53% of UK voters now oppose the doctors strike, including 73% of Reform and 81% of Tory voters opposed.

    Though 52% of Labour and 60% of Green voters back the doctors strike for higher pay.

    LDs split, 49% opposed, 45% in favour
    https://yougov.com/en-gb/daily-results/20260326-b8311-1
  • LeonLeon Posts: 67,360
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
    Because they are monstrous symbols and tools of very conservative Islam, and its repression of women

    How would you feel if you saw a black man in chains in the street? "It's OK as long as he's happy"?

    They are also damaging, practically, for young kids, deaf people, etc. They can't read faces and lips, they can't see smiles and frowns

    TBH I think we should adopt the Swiss system on issues like this. Put it to a referendum, if the British people decide the burqa is OK (and they well might) so be it
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,650
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
    Presume this is a comment meant ironically?

    Just checking. Because sometimes you just never know, do you?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,663

    Evening,

    Please give me some good news.

    Love'n'kisses,

    solarflare

    Very often most of our energy is being generated from renewable sources.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,826
    edited March 27
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    I see doctors now take the hypocritic oath.

    26% for me and 2.75% for thee:

    Hundreds of British Medical Association employees are going on strike this weekend, accusing the “hypocritical” union of underpaying its own staff while demanding a 26 per cent rise for doctors.

    Nearly 500 office-based employees at the doctors’ union will strike for 48 hours on Friday and Saturday, after being offered a below-inflation pay rise of 2.75 per cent for this year.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/bma-union-doctors-staff-strike-pay-zxszc7lj9

    I'm sure there is some justice in the doctor's case. But we all know that they'll finish up rich. My GP, who's a nice chap. often spends time in our consultations asking about my financial views. (Fair enough of course as I am very very very wise about such things. Well maybe.)
    The doctor's case is very simple.

    They want their pay today to be the same as it was before the Great Financial Crash Austerity, uprated by RPI.

    Your opinion on whether this is justified will depend on your opinion of inflation index calculation, your opinion on whether doctors were overpaid prior to austerity, what has happened to averages wages since the Financial Crash, whether you think the country can afford well paid doctors, or maybe has to choose between more doctors and higher pay for doctors, etc.

    I've been meaning to compare doctors pay to average earnings, etc, but haven't got around to it yet.
    It's been done:


    That's from before the pay award Labour gave them in 2024.

    But it's a good graph and does justify that pay award.

    I saw a version that included the pay award from Labour, but it was vs RPI, so showed doctors still down a lot. It didn't have the comparison with other workers either.
    The flat productivity in the public sector says otherwise.
    NHS productivity has grown significantly faster than private sector productivity. In fact that’s the argument doctors should be making - that kind of innovation in the private sector would be rewarded, but the government has used monopsony power to do the opposite.

    It’s also a good argument for privatisation - just look at what doctors in the US get paid. Always slightly baffled as to why UK doctors don’t push that harder.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,700
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
    The Tories need to get rid of this opportunistic chancer.

    A vu

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (+1)
    LAB: 19% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    GRN: 16% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @BMGResearch
    , 25-26 Mar.
    Changes w/ 4-5 Mar.
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037596648059044086?s=20

    The Reform slide is OVER

    Nigel is BACK

    ONWARDS TO VICTORY!!!!
    Yes, Farage PM with an overall majority, just, on today's BMG poll with Nowcast.

    Gives Reform 326 MPs, Labour 90, LDs 75, Tories 45, SNP 43 and Greens 34 and PC 12

    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
    Farage will not be PM though I expect you will be disappointed
    Who will be if not Farage?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 135,014

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (+1)
    LAB: 19% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    GRN: 16% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @BMGResearch
    , 25-26 Mar.
    Changes w/ 4-5 Mar.
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037596648059044086?s=20

    The Reform slide is OVER

    Nigel is BACK

    ONWARDS TO VICTORY!!!!
    Yes, Farage PM with an overall majority, just, on today's BMG poll with Nowcast.

    Gives Reform 326 MPs, Labour 90, LDs 75, Tories 45, SNP 43 and Greens 34 and PC 12

    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
    Farage will not be PM though I expect you will be disappointed
    At the moment he will be unless massive anti Reform tactical voting
    Not even now
    Yes even now, I have literally just given you what the latest poll would translate to into seats ie an overall Reform majority
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,832

    Barnesian said:

    Israel claims that Iran presents an existential threat.
    Regardless of Iranian threats, that is clearly nonsense. Israel has nukes and the backing of the US.

    However for the first time in its existence, it is facing a possible existential threat, namely the removal of US support.
    Israel is a small country of about 10 million people without significant natural resources, surrounded by enemies. It needs the US.

    The polls in the US are moving decisively against support for Israel, particularly among the young.
    I don't think Israelis, the majority of whom support the war against Iran, are aware of this potential threat.

    They probably are. Hence this is probably their last chance to get American backing for this kind of war.

    Even Bibi has been talking about weening Israel off US military aid

    >.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 67,360

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
    France and other European countries have implimented it not least for security issues
    They are also banned or being banned in multiple Muslim countries - eg all the central Asian states. Because they know, better than us, the attitudes and politics that come with the burqa, and they are not good

    https://timesca.com/kazakhstan-moves-to-ban-face-coverings-in-public/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 67,360

    Evening,

    Please give me some good news.

    Love'n'kisses,

    solarflare

    Tomorrow night the clocks go forward and we gain a beautiful hour of twilight. Summer is icumen in, loudly sing cuckoo
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,950
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (+1)
    LAB: 19% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    GRN: 16% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @BMGResearch
    , 25-26 Mar.
    Changes w/ 4-5 Mar.
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037596648059044086?s=20

    The Reform slide is OVER

    Nigel is BACK

    ONWARDS TO VICTORY!!!!
    Yes, Farage PM with an overall majority, just, on today's BMG poll with Nowcast.

    Gives Reform 326 MPs, Labour 90, LDs 75, Tories 45, SNP 43 and Greens 34 and PC 12

    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
    Farage will not be PM though I expect you will be disappointed
    At the moment he will be unless massive anti Reform tactical voting
    Not even now
    Yes even now, I have literally just given you what the latest poll would translate to into seats ie an overall Reform majority
    Other polls are available
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,876

    Sean_F said:

    When it comes to Trump, there really is no floor of awful.

    There has to come a point, surely, when the US Military acts to remove a traitor as President.

    Thankfully, Russia has destroyed so much of its army in Ukraine, and both Ukraine and Poland have now established such strong armed forces, that a Russian attack Westward would be highly problematic.

    I think Russia's armed forces are now more dangerous for Europe than in 2022. The advances in their use of drones have been very large, and are not matched by any NATO army.

    I'm not convinced that the Polish army will leave the defence of Poland in the case that Russia attacks the Baltic States. It is hard to see Ukrainian forces deploying in any strength to do so. Can Britain, France and Germany defend the Baltic States?

    I have severe doubts.
    We cannot defend anything.

    Our defence is now entirely tokenistic, and it's a scandal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 135,014

    Good evening all.
    Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient.
    Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley)
    Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either.
    If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former?
    Maybe a lot of near misses await......

    The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.

    As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,663

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (+1)
    LAB: 19% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    GRN: 16% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @BMGResearch
    , 25-26 Mar.
    Changes w/ 4-5 Mar.
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037596648059044086?s=20

    The Reform slide is OVER

    Nigel is BACK

    ONWARDS TO VICTORY!!!!
    Yes, Farage PM with an overall majority, just, on today's BMG poll with Nowcast.

    Gives Reform 326 MPs, Labour 90, LDs 75, Tories 45, SNP 43 and Greens 34 and PC 12

    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
    Farage will not be PM though I expect you will be disappointed
    They almost certainly won't win a majority because of tactical voting.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,677


    InteractivePolls
    @IAPolls2022

    @Polymarket - 2026 U.S. Senate (chance of winning)

    NORTH CAROLINA
    🟦 Democrat: 81% (flip)
    🟥 Republican: 20%

    MAINE
    🟦 Democrat: 74% (flip)
    🟥 Republican: 27%

    ALASKA
    🟦 Mary Peltola: 52% (flip)
    🟥 Dan Sullivan: 47%

    GEORGIA
    🟦 Democrat: 82% (new high)
    🟥 Republican: 17%

    MICHIGAN
    🟦 Democrat: 82% (new high)
    🟥 Republican: 18%

    OHIO
    🟦 Democrat: 54% (flip)
    🟥 Republican: 47%

    https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2037580473677832287

    Those are predictions, not polls.

    And, it shows two very likely flips - Maine and North Carolina, and then two toss-ups.

    For what it's worth, I think Maine will be an easy Dem gain: Susan Collins is nowhere near as popular as she used to be.

    Alaska and Ohio are much harder prospects, I think I probably like Mary Peltola's chaces a little better than Sherrod Brown's. But you know what: the Dems have done a really good job of getting good quality candidates in those races.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,876
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.

    In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.

    Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
    Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.

    What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)

    Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.

    My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.

    If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.

    Agreed

    Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs

    Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
    The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.

    Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions

    Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
    Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.

    If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.

    Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
    A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
    TDS is so widespread, it came up in my charity Trustee meeting this afternoon- where I genuinely got nervously chuckled at for saying, of course there isn't going to be WWIII. "You're confident" etc.

    The hyperbole is off the scale.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 67,360
    We do, and of course populations in some countries are now dropping. So there's lot of old "stuff" to go round

    I heartily approve. My flat is exquisitely adorned with wildly underpriced objects

    However, this doesn't quite explain why anyone would prefer that tedious banal new John Lewis plate, which is MORE expensive than the 200 year old Spode, which is very pretty

    I guess it's all about dishwashers and practicality but yawn, how boring. Life is short, Fill it with beauty and lace it with story
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 135,014
    edited March 27
    Barnesian said:

    Israel claims that Iran presents an existential threat.
    Regardless of Iranian threats, that is clearly nonsense. Israel has nukes and the backing of the US.

    However for the first time in its existence, it is facing a possible existential threat, namely the removal of US support.
    Israel is a small country of about 10 million people without significant natural resources, surrounded by enemies. It needs the US.

    The polls in the US are moving decisively against support for Israel, particularly among the young.
    I don't think Israelis, the majority of whom support the war against Iran, are aware of this potential threat.

    There isn't massive support for the Iran War amongst most Americans beyond MAGA.

    That is not the same as not supporting Israel if it was invaded though, the US Conservative Evangelical and Jewish lobby in particular would demand it
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,764

    Evening,

    Please give me some good news.

    Love'n'kisses,

    solarflare

    Trump trashing the world and its economy has knocked a couple of points off his approval ratings.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,832

    Barnesian said:

    Israel claims that Iran presents an existential threat.
    Regardless of Iranian threats, that is clearly nonsense. Israel has nukes and the backing of the US.

    However for the first time in its existence, it is facing a possible existential threat, namely the removal of US support.
    Israel is a small country of about 10 million people without significant natural resources, surrounded by enemies. It needs the US.

    The polls in the US are moving decisively against support for Israel, particularly among the young.
    I don't think Israelis, the majority of whom support the war against Iran, are aware of this potential threat.

    Suppose the US does remove its support from Israel. Suppose that - with weapons from China - Israel's neighbours upgrade their armed forces.

    How much hand-winging will there be in Europe when the Arab States manage to do what they failed to do in earlier conflicts and destroy Israel, trigger a nuclear exchange, murder vast numbers of Jews and send the rest fleeing for sanctuary?
    That's why Israel must change its approach and keep the support of the US and indeed the rest of the world.
    The Israeli current approach is very counter productive and dangerous in the way you suggest.
    It's potentially catastrophic.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,950
    edited March 27
    Brixian59 said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
    The Tories need to get rid of this opportunistic chancer.

    A vu

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (+1)
    LAB: 19% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    GRN: 16% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @BMGResearch
    , 25-26 Mar.
    Changes w/ 4-5 Mar.
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037596648059044086?s=20

    The Reform slide is OVER

    Nigel is BACK

    ONWARDS TO VICTORY!!!!
    Yes, Farage PM with an overall majority, just, on today's BMG poll with Nowcast.

    Gives Reform 326 MPs, Labour 90, LDs 75, Tories 45, SNP 43 and Greens 34 and PC 12

    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
    Farage will not be PM though I expect you will be disappointed
    Who will be if not Farage?
    I do not know but it will not be Farage as anybody but him kicks in

    And on the burka France, Austria, Switzerland , Belgium and the Dutch have implimented it so Kemi is correct

    And far from getting rid of Kemi she is growing in popularity and will lead into GE 29
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 135,014

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (+1)
    LAB: 19% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    GRN: 16% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @BMGResearch
    , 25-26 Mar.
    Changes w/ 4-5 Mar.
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037596648059044086?s=20

    The Reform slide is OVER

    Nigel is BACK

    ONWARDS TO VICTORY!!!!
    Yes, Farage PM with an overall majority, just, on today's BMG poll with Nowcast.

    Gives Reform 326 MPs, Labour 90, LDs 75, Tories 45, SNP 43 and Greens 34 and PC 12

    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
    Farage will not be PM though I expect you will be disappointed
    At the moment he will be unless massive anti Reform tactical voting
    Not even now
    Yes even now, I have literally just given you what the latest poll would translate to into seats ie an overall Reform majority
    Other polls are available
    All current polls have Farage PM, either with an overall majority or with most seats in a hung parliament assuming the Tories don't give confidence and supply to Labour but at most abstain even if they don't do a formal deal with Reform
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,779
    Intetesting lineup for England.

    Uruguay look value at 9/2. They are always a tough side.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,950
    HYUFD said:

    Good evening all.
    Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient.
    Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley)
    Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either.
    If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former?
    Maybe a lot of near misses await......

    The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.

    As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
    You sound so disappointed !!!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,360
    HYUFD said:

    Good evening all.
    Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient.
    Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley)
    Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either.
    If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former?
    Maybe a lot of near misses await......

    The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.

    As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
    As I commented on the previous, neither result was that good for the Conservatives who were winning seats won with 65-70% share of the vote in 2023, which was a poor year for the party.

    I know Halstead and Badgers Mount - it's a Ward bordering Orpington. The notion it could be anything other than Conservative is stretching credibility - the Conservatives polled 78% in the 2019 locals so a significant decline from then until now.

    As you say, however, tactical voting might help the Conservatives where Reform is the obvious threat but conversely we are likely to see big falls (you might argue) where other parties are seen as more likely to stop Reform.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,946
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Israel claims that Iran presents an existential threat.
    Regardless of Iranian threats, that is clearly nonsense. Israel has nukes and the backing of the US.

    However for the first time in its existence, it is facing a possible existential threat, namely the removal of US support.
    Israel is a small country of about 10 million people without significant natural resources, surrounded by enemies. It needs the US.

    The polls in the US are moving decisively against support for Israel, particularly among the young.
    I don't think Israelis, the majority of whom support the war against Iran, are aware of this potential threat.

    Suppose the US does remove its support from Israel. Suppose that - with weapons from China - Israel's neighbours upgrade their armed forces.

    How much hand-winging will there be in Europe when the Arab States manage to do what they failed to do in earlier conflicts and destroy Israel, trigger a nuclear exchange, murder vast numbers of Jews and send the rest fleeing for sanctuary?
    That's why Israel must change its approach and keep the support of the US and indeed the rest of the world.
    The Israeli current approach is very counter productive and dangerous in the way you suggest.
    It's potentially catastrophic.
    Europe has lost US support for its defence without attempting to steal land from its neighbours. I don't think there's a way for Israel to reliably maintain US support.

    They will have to hope that domestic high-tech industry can supply their defence needs.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,481
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2037578195256430651

    Trump: "We'll get Minnesota back. We'll take it back from Somalia."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,779
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Israel claims that Iran presents an existential threat.
    Regardless of Iranian threats, that is clearly nonsense. Israel has nukes and the backing of the US.

    However for the first time in its existence, it is facing a possible existential threat, namely the removal of US support.
    Israel is a small country of about 10 million people without significant natural resources, surrounded by enemies. It needs the US.

    The polls in the US are moving decisively against support for Israel, particularly among the young.
    I don't think Israelis, the majority of whom support the war against Iran, are aware of this potential threat.

    Suppose the US does remove its support from Israel. Suppose that - with weapons from China - Israel's neighbours upgrade their armed forces.

    How much hand-winging will there be in Europe when the Arab States manage to do what they failed to do in earlier conflicts and destroy Israel, trigger a nuclear exchange, murder vast numbers of Jews and send the rest fleeing for sanctuary?
    That's why Israel must change its approach and keep the support of the US and indeed the rest of the world.
    The Israeli current approach is very counter productive and dangerous in the way you suggest.
    It's potentially catastrophic.
    Being the Millwall of the world is a high risk strategy. It works until it doesn't.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,950
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (+1)
    LAB: 19% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    GRN: 16% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @BMGResearch
    , 25-26 Mar.
    Changes w/ 4-5 Mar.
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037596648059044086?s=20

    The Reform slide is OVER

    Nigel is BACK

    ONWARDS TO VICTORY!!!!
    Yes, Farage PM with an overall majority, just, on today's BMG poll with Nowcast.

    Gives Reform 326 MPs, Labour 90, LDs 75, Tories 45, SNP 43 and Greens 34 and PC 12

    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
    Farage will not be PM though I expect you will be disappointed
    At the moment he will be unless massive anti Reform tactical voting
    Not even now
    Yes even now, I have literally just given you what the latest poll would translate to into seats ie an overall Reform majority
    Other polls are available
    All current polls have Farage PM, either with an overall majority or with most seats in a hung parliament assuming the Tories don't give confidence and supply to Labour but at most abstain even if they don't do a formal deal with Reform
    Most seats does not make him PM
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,677
    This is why Susan Collins is absolute toast in Maine: https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/senator-approval-ratings#senators-approval-ratings

    Back in 2020, Susan Collins was popular in Maine. She got Republicans (who didn't feel they had many options other than a moderate) and many crossover Democrats (who liked her willingness to stand up to Republican leadership). People felt that she was on their side.

    Fast forward six years. Susan Collins looks like an idiot for supporting Brett Kavanaugh based on his assurances re Roe v Wade. It's the midterms. Trump is even less popular now than he was in 2018 at this point. Gas prices are rising.

    And she's now the second most unpopular Senator in the US with her constituents.

    She's going to get crushed in November, probably by double digits.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,785
    Leon said:

    Evening,

    Please give me some good news.

    Love'n'kisses,

    solarflare

    Tomorrow night the clocks go forward and we gain a beautiful hour of twilight. Summer is icumen in, loudly sing cuckoo
    The clocks go forward and we lose an hour of the weekend.

    Why can't we do this during the working day?


    (But not the reverse, naturally! )
  • LeonLeon Posts: 67,360
    edited March 27
    On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing

    The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim


    https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-comparing-women-who-wear-burkas-to-bank-robbers-not-racist-11465688

    So Kemi is cleverly adopting a highly popular cause, if she does this
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,700

    HYUFD said:

    Good evening all.
    Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient.
    Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley)
    Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either.
    If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former?
    Maybe a lot of near misses await......

    The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.

    As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
    You sound so disappointed !!!
    Vote massively down in 2 held seats.

    Right or Wrong?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,832
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Israel claims that Iran presents an existential threat.
    Regardless of Iranian threats, that is clearly nonsense. Israel has nukes and the backing of the US.

    However for the first time in its existence, it is facing a possible existential threat, namely the removal of US support.
    Israel is a small country of about 10 million people without significant natural resources, surrounded by enemies. It needs the US.

    The polls in the US are moving decisively against support for Israel, particularly among the young.
    I don't think Israelis, the majority of whom support the war against Iran, are aware of this potential threat.

    There isn't massive support for the Iran War amongst most Americans beyond MAGA.

    That is not the same as not supporting Israel if it was invaded though, the US Conservative Evangelical and Jewish lobby in particular would demand it
    If and when the Democrats regain power, the US Conservative Evangelical and Jewish lobby would be powerless.

    However I don't think Israel would be invaded, even if it lost US financial and military support.
    It has the bomb.
    But it would be impoverished and contained.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,650
    LOL.

    "A Reform UK candidate for the Welsh Senedd elections in May has announced he is standing down because of his mental health, after a photograph emerged of him apparently making a Nazi salute as an imitation of Adolf Hitler.

    "The announcement by Reform comes a day after Nigel Farage defended Corey Edwards, its lead candidate for the Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg constituency, saying he may have instead been impersonating the John Cleese character Basil Fawlty."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/27/reform-uk-candidate-wales-senedd-corey-edwards-photograph

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,677
    rcs1000 said:

    This is why Susan Collins is absolute toast in Maine: https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/senator-approval-ratings#senators-approval-ratings

    Back in 2020, Susan Collins was popular in Maine. She got Republicans (who didn't feel they had many options other than a moderate) and many crossover Democrats (who liked her willingness to stand up to Republican leadership). People felt that she was on their side.

    Fast forward six years. Susan Collins looks like an idiot for supporting Brett Kavanaugh based on his assurances re Roe v Wade. It's the midterms. Trump is even less popular now than he was in 2018 at this point. Gas prices are rising.

    And she's now the second most unpopular Senator in the US with her constituents.

    She's going to get crushed in November, probably by double digits.

    Oh yes, and those approval ratings are from January... before gas prices went through the roof. She's probably five points down on that now.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,036

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.

    In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.

    Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
    Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.

    What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)

    Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.

    My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.

    If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.

    Agreed

    Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs

    Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
    The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.

    Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions

    Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
    Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.

    If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.

    Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
    A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
    TDS is so widespread, it came up in my charity Trustee meeting this afternoon- where I genuinely got nervously chuckled at for saying, of course there isn't going to be WWIII. "You're confident" etc.

    The hyperbole is off the scale.
    It's true that things usually don't happen but it seems fairly likely that there'll be quite a lot of extreme hardship making itself felt without WWIII.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,360
    The exposure of ordinary Americans to the stock market makes it an interesting barometer.

    It's down 6.5% this year but still up 7% on this time last year and 35% up from where it was this day in 2023 so there's a bit of cushion there before people see their investments really suffering.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,906
    Leon said:

    We do, and of course populations in some countries are now dropping. So there's lot of old "stuff" to go round

    I heartily approve. My flat is exquisitely adorned with wildly underpriced objects

    However, this doesn't quite explain why anyone would prefer that tedious banal new John Lewis plate, which is MORE expensive than the 200 year old Spode, which is very pretty

    I guess it's all about dishwashers and practicality but yawn, how boring. Life is short, Fill it with beauty and lace it with story
    You may say dishwashers are boring but I say they are one of the greatest inventions of the modern world when I compare my average evening with my mother's as I was growing up.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,950
    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good evening all.
    Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient.
    Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley)
    Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either.
    If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former?
    Maybe a lot of near misses await......

    The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.

    As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
    You sound so disappointed !!!
    Vote massively down in 2 held seats.

    Right or Wrong?
    Talking of votes how did labour do ?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,578
    Leon said:

    Evening,

    Please give me some good news.

    Love'n'kisses,

    solarflare

    Tomorrow night the clocks go forward and we gain a beautiful hour of twilight. Summer is icumen in, loudly sing cuckoo
    Lighter evenings are definitely good news!
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,716
    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    Ban all symbols of religion, the burqa, the crucifix, the dog collar, etc. Then ban all religion. Give peace a chance.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,036

    Leon said:

    Evening,

    Please give me some good news.

    Love'n'kisses,

    solarflare

    Tomorrow night the clocks go forward and we gain a beautiful hour of twilight. Summer is icumen in, loudly sing cuckoo
    The clocks go forward and we lose an hour of the weekend.

    Why can't we do this during the working day?


    (But not the reverse, naturally! )
    It is during the working 'day' for night shift workers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,936
    edited March 27
    NATO is already dead, it just hasn't accepted it yet. Trump is the most immediate point of friction, but 45% of America supports his position (ok, let's say maybe only 40% for an unreasonably optimistic view of GOP contrarians), and that is why NATO's days are (effectively) numbered.

    That NATO and other (former) allies might object to the kind of one on one, man to man, type deal that Trump prefers to make, will only accelerate the problem.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,677
    Leon said:

    On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing

    The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim


    https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-comparing-women-who-wear-burkas-to-bank-robbers-not-racist-11465688

    So Kemi is cleverly adopting a highly popular cause, if she does this

    The bar for banning things, even things we don't like, should be high.

    FWIW, I think you are right that the best way to deal with these things is via referendum.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,650
    Leon said:

    On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing

    The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim


    https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-comparing-women-who-wear-burkas-to-bank-robbers-not-racist-11465688

    So Kemi is cleverly adopting a highly popular cause, if she does this

    I suspect it's one of those issues - like trans - where blokes tend to shrug their shoulders a bit, while women, rightly, have rather stronger views.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,779

    LOL.

    "A Reform UK candidate for the Welsh Senedd elections in May has announced he is standing down because of his mental health, after a photograph emerged of him apparently making a Nazi salute as an imitation of Adolf Hitler.

    "The announcement by Reform comes a day after Nigel Farage defended Corey Edwards, its lead candidate for the Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg constituency, saying he may have instead been impersonating the John Cleese character Basil Fawlty."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/27/reform-uk-candidate-wales-senedd-corey-edwards-photograph

    There's a lot of it about:

    BBC News - Reform UK councillor in Staffordshire suspended after racism row - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y7ezxqx04o?app-referrer=deep-link
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,769

    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
    Kemi imputes that she knows how many thousands of people think, and evaluates them according to her personal opinions.

    Kemi is a knee-jerking fool. This is no better than Farage or Anderson.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,950

    LOL.

    "A Reform UK candidate for the Welsh Senedd elections in May has announced he is standing down because of his mental health, after a photograph emerged of him apparently making a Nazi salute as an imitation of Adolf Hitler.

    "The announcement by Reform comes a day after Nigel Farage defended Corey Edwards, its lead candidate for the Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg constituency, saying he may have instead been impersonating the John Cleese character Basil Fawlty."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/27/reform-uk-candidate-wales-senedd-corey-edwards-photograph

    They are an utter disgrace of a party and hopefully Plaid will put them in their place

    Farage considers Welsh a foreign language and wants to abolish the Senedd

    Little englander not welcome here
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,769

    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    Ban all symbols of religion, the burqa, the crucifix, the dog collar, etc. Then ban all religion. Give peace a chance.
    Stalin says hello.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,036
    kle4 said:

    NATO is already dead, it just hasn't accepted it yet. Trump is the most immediate point of friction, but 45% of America supports his position (ok, let's say maybe only 40% for an unreasonably optimistic view of GOP contrarians), and that is why NATO's days are (effectively) numbered.

    That NATO and other (former) allies might object to the kind of one on one, man to man, type deal that Trump prefers to make, will only accelerate the problem.

    With Canada, it will still be a North Atlantic Treaty even if the US has pulled out. Much better to keep what's left rather than spend a lot of time starting up something new.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,716
    Leon said:

    Evening,

    Please give me some good news.

    Love'n'kisses,

    solarflare

    Tomorrow night the clocks go forward and we gain a beautiful hour of twilight. Summer is icumen in, loudly sing cuckoo
    Then keep them forward. An hour of daylight in the evening is much more useful than an hour of daylight in the morning. The excuse of children walking to school in the dark no longer applies now that the little darlings go to school in mummy’s 4x4.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,535
    Leon said:

    On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing

    The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim


    https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-comparing-women-who-wear-burkas-to-bank-robbers-not-racist-11465688

    So Kemi is cleverly adopting a highly popular cause, if she does this

    Yebbut Reform will steal the policy, and may do so anyway whether she goes for it or not
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,832

    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    Ban all symbols of religion, the burqa, the crucifix, the dog collar, etc. Then ban all religion. Give peace a chance.
    I'm intrigued by nuns' habits.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,687

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.

    In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.

    Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
    Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.

    What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)

    Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.

    My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.

    If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.

    Agreed

    Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs

    Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
    The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.

    Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions

    Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
    Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.

    If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.

    Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
    A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
    TDS is so widespread, it came up in my charity Trustee meeting this afternoon- where I genuinely got nervously chuckled at for saying, of course there isn't going to be WWIII. "You're confident" etc.

    The hyperbole is off the scale.
    Trump is the worst US President ever!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,936
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
    Kemi imputes that she knows how many thousands of people think, and evaluates them according to her personal opinions.
    A politician?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 67,360
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
    Kemi imputes that she knows how many thousands of people think, and evaluates them according to her personal opinions.

    Kemi is a knee-jerking fool. This is no better than Farage or Anderson.
    And yet this ban is what a vast majority of Brits want, according to polls. And several European countries - not notably Nazi - have banned them. And they are banned in multiple Muslim countries

    So what exactly is your objection?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,950
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
    Kemi imputes that she knows how many thousands of people think, and evaluates them according to her personal opinions.

    Kemi is a knee-jerking fool. This is no better than Farage or Anderson.
    No better than Macron then !!!!
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,650

    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    Ban all symbols of religion, the burqa, the crucifix, the dog collar, etc. Then ban all religion. Give peace a chance.
    No. The burqa is different. Quite obviously women are wearing them under duress. Nothing to do with the freedom of expression: it is, quite literally, the opposite of that.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,687
    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    "Badenoch considers burka ban

    Tories understood to be ‘looking closely’ at merits of veto on face coverings as part of a review of Islamism"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/27/kemi-badenoch-conservatives-burka-ban/

    Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny

    Kemi is right. Ban them

    Ban all symbols of religion, the burqa, the crucifix, the dog collar, etc. Then ban all religion. Give peace a chance.
    I'm intrigued by nuns' habits.
    Which habits interest you the most?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,950
    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing

    The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim


    https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-comparing-women-who-wear-burkas-to-bank-robbers-not-racist-11465688

    So Kemi is cleverly adopting a highly popular cause, if she does this

    Yebbut Reform will steal the policy, and may do so anyway whether she goes for it or not
    It is Reform policy
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