What would Ronald Reagan think? – politicalbetting.com
What would Ronald Reagan think? – politicalbetting.com
Fears are mounting in Britain and the rest of Europe that America will abandon its Nato allies and make a deal with Russia, sources have disclosed to The Times.
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Coz it's quite important for understanding the Israeli mindset
"The Iranian regime constantly talks - openly - about its intent to destroy the state of Israel. They repeat this time and again:
1) Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 2005
At a Tehran conference, Ahmadinejad made the statement widely reported in English as saying Israel should be “wiped off the map.” The Guardian reported it at the time in those terms
2) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 2015 to 2016
On Khamenei’s official English-language site, he is quoted saying: “nothing called the ‘Zionist regime’ will exist by 25 years from now.”
3) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, October 2023
Khamenei’s official site quoted him saying the “cancer” of the “Zionist regime” “will surely be eradicated.”
There are many others, from many other officials
Now you may think this is bluster, but I suggest if you were a Jew living in Israel you could not shrug it off, not in the light of Hitler promising to the end the Jewish problem then, when he got the power, striving to do exactly that, by killing all the Jews he could find, In their millions
Israel's unique history means they have to take threats of genocide very seriously. So they cannot risk Iran getting a nuke, because Iran might very well do what Iranian leaders say they will do. Wipe Israel off the map"
BTW I also once more recommend any PBers that haven't had a go, to watch Tehran. It's possibly the best way to understand the Iran-Israel duel. Also very gripping and entertaining
There has to come a point, surely, when the US Military acts to remove a traitor as President.
Thankfully, Russia has destroyed so much of its army in Ukraine, and both Ukraine and Poland have now established such strong armed forces, that a Russian attack Westward would be highly problematic.
The problem is, how do you have a military coup and stay out of prison for the rest of your life? These sorts of things develop a momentum of their own, and I'm not sure that the US would be in any fit state to help defend Europe if the military kicked off a crisis by launching a coup.
There's no way out while Trump has such a hold on his voters that other Republican politicians are too chickenshit to stand against him.
He is a monster , true evil without a shred of humanity .
I am open to good news about Trump, I don't have TDS. I think he's done a great job on immigration, and I support the ICE stuff, even if it goes wrong from time to time, remember America is ejecting criminals that rape and kill Americans
Venezuela, was daring and brilliant. He's doing OK-ish on the economy
But the looming Iranian debacle kinda dwarfs all that, and makes the idea he is doing "a good job" seem insane. He is imperilling the entire world, because he went to war on a whim, perhaps dragged by Netanyahu, and he apparently had no plan in place to prevent Iran doing exactly what they would obviously do: take out all the regional oil infra and close the Straits of Hormuz, threatening worldwide calamity
That is criminally irresponsible, as things stand. Now, maybe Trump is playing 9D chess and there IS a secret hidden plan, but I've yet to see any evidence of it and everything points to this being a major blunder which will get worse, not better
I hope I am wrong and you are right
He revels in causing harm.
They can
1) invade Iran with boots on the ground and go bankrupt (30 year treasuries hit 5% today and it costs bns to keep that show running - that interest rate will only go up from here). They will be unable to service their other security obligations in Asia and Europe if this goes on ... or
2) tuck their tails between their legs and go home. But then they cannot enforce the petrodollar and they have to give up their role as hegemon and superpower wherefore the world will ask why it should buy US debt to finance the US military and hence go bankrupt.
There are no nice outcomes for USA in this. It was a very grave serious geostrategic blunder to attack Iran ... They could have carried on for 10-15 years transitioning to a new situation. But as of right now they are looking at a constitutional crisis in november and a Liz Truss style financial crisis on speed within 4-5 years - possibly before.
Europe, Canada and Australia need to be planning for what to do when the USA get flushed down the crapper I think. The debt trap is closing shut now and the american order is crumbling.
I'm not convinced that the Polish army will leave the defence of Poland in the case that Russia attacks the Baltic States. It is hard to see Ukrainian forces deploying in any strength to do so. Can Britain, France and Germany defend the Baltic States?
I have severe doubts.
He thinks that the armed forces of NATO countries should be his own Praetorian Guard.
https://x.com/nypost/status/2037536663845351472
Secret Service agents shoots himself while escorting Jill Biden at Philadelphia airport
It remains an extremely powerful nation.
If they then attack Estonia with large quantities of artillery and drone teams, for how many days does the British force there remain combat effective? Does Starmer have the resolve to send reinforcements, and how long do they last?
In other words, it is unique. I don't think it will catalyse and symbolise America's total fall from hegemony the way Suez demoted France and Britain forever. America has too much military power, economic heft and technological might for that. I do believe it could cement China as the dominant global force, once and for all, supplanting the USA
IF we all survive, that is
I fear, however, that there should be more focus on Netanyahu. It seems to me that even if Trump manages to find an off-ramp, it won't work because Netanyahu has no intention of stopping his war on Iran (and southern Lebanon), regardless of the disastrous consequences.
The idea that Russia would take on the whole of Europe is ludicrous. But it's entirely possible Putin decides he could pick off a vulnerable state (or two).
Ukraine itself proves he's a gambler prepared to double down on his bad bets.
A land grab around Romania is another possibility.
Vance is an isolationist. His entire stance is No More Futile Wars. Now Trump has gone and done what Vance most abhors - got America entangled in a truly appalling morass in the Middle East. Again!
Watch Vance. I cannot believe he is seeing this unfold with anything but despair and anger, whatever he says in public. If anyone is going to make a move on Trump, it would surely be him along with senior aides and generals
"According to Barak Ravid, U.S. Vice President JD Vance had a difficult call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday where he said that Israeli assessments for toppling the Iranian regime were not realistic enough, saying "You were too optimistic in your assessments regarding the overthrow of the regime in Iran.""
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2037498630932746692?s=20
Trump still has some sort of emotional attachment to the UK, for example. Vance does not.
So safer for the globe; just as much a threat to us and Europe. (And probably the US constitution, too.)
We should tell him to get out of his Air Bases immediately, that includes Chagos. If he wants Chagos he can buy it.
In the case of Israel, we should sanction them, cut off all diplomatic relations and trade, turn them in to the parish State they are, until there is positive regime change there.
Phase 2 closer trade and diplomatic ties with China. Offer them Chagos.
That will show the 2 ass holes that the Lion can still roar.
We've nothing militarily to fear from China, Russia ban US have much to fear.
If we have to elect a left Green / Lab /LD / SNP Coalition to do it, so be it.
New World Order
I find Trump 2.0 even more confusing than the previous version. I struggle to see how his administration functions in the most basic terms - his power as head of Government seems extraordinary and I'm reminded of Boris Johnson's efforts to sideline Parliament in favour of giving more authority to Ministers and indeed further centralising and augmenting the powers of the Prime Minister's office.
Perhaps that's a facet of some leaders, perhaps not, though as we've seen once the powers are taken in, successive leaders seem loath to repatriate them.
Authoritarian leaders usually function not via collective leadership or primus inter pares but by encouraging a competition for influence in which those in the circle fight for favour by saying and doing what they think the leader wants to hear or get done. You might have a spell in favour but one of your competitors might say and do something the leader really likes so they are in and you are left to try to regain the favour you once had.
Trump's worldview seems remarkably limited - he is probably told what his advisers think he wants to hear and it's likely those close to him have contacts and friends in the financial and other sectors who can make quick and easy money by being ahead of the game in terms of knowing what will be announced next.
In the West Wing, the Jed Bartlett character once said something about decision making involving listening to everyone and then calling the play. I suspect Trump has neither the time nor the patience to listen to more than a few voices and they tell him what he wants to hear, thus his pronouncements sound detached from the real world.
I suspect the memoirs of those close to these events in the current administration will make for interesting reading one day.
Brilliant. Not
I sometimes wonder if you are a mad bot created by @rcs1000 to entertain himself
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
An actual impeachment, depending on what grounds it is framed, has the potential to disqualify Vance and many of Trump's administration as well. I forget the actual range of grounds that do this, but they read as being potentially applicable.
The numbers may not stack up for a successful impeachment, but will Vance want to take that chance?
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
As you say, nobody votes to become poorer yet over here if we are to break the cycle of ever-increasing borrowing, we will have to become poorer either via tax rises or cuts to services and welfare. That message however will never be popular and the messages from Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens we can have lower taxes, continued welfare and nobody will ever have the wobbles will continue to mop up votes.
Anyway, it meant I got to spend a bit of time with retired naval officers many of whom used to be and should be natural tories but now, definitely, no longer absolutely aren't.
Funeral Focus Group Findings:
- One doesn't like Kemi because she's "African". This shouldn't matter and the tories pretend it doesn't but it definitely does to some erstwhile tory voters.
- One had sat next to Farage at Lords and said he was, "Very charming but got pissed as quickly as possible. Drank with desperation."
- At least two thought Chris Parry should be in Release or whatever the fuck it's called, not Reform. Note CP is a Fleet Air Arm legend and can do no wrong.
- They don't hate SKS but think he's a "wanker".
- None of them are really Reform-y, because the Fukkers are bit common for these types. Could be tempted by Lowe's mob though I reckon.
- Most more likely not to vote than vote tory despite being habitual tory voters.
There you go, I sit in a pub with ex-tories so you don't have to.
https://x.com/phl43/status/2037514984217780595
Trump is kind of a Keynesian but about foreign policy. Instead of paying people to dig holes and then fill them up, he makes people close a strait by attacking them, just so he can reopen it at enormous cost afterward.
"They'll collapse when they see your big bazooka, Donald. And just think of it. The president who finally sorts out Iran."
Something like that from Netanyahu, I'd have thought. Wily old beast that he is.
https://www.itv.com/news/granada/2026-03-27/no-evidence-of-family-voting-in-by-election
E2A: Pre-SMO, I used to think that NATO would not fight for the Baltics. The USA definitely now would not, but I think Poland and Germany, at least, would. UK... dunno. On the one hand, there are plenty of 1* and up maniacs in the MoD who would be thinking of the glory and post-war book deals but one the other hand no British government can politically survive any significant number of KIAs.
Are you implying we woule be unable or unwilling to oppose a Russian attack on Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania? Do you have any evidence for that?
I'd assumed that NF drank for show but tipped it away rather than get drunk.
Lowe's mob aren't common?
Being Navy types you'd have thought they might have been to Gt Yarmouth.
I've only been to look for fish and chips a few years ago as we were staying nearby, my brief observations were ex-cinema now a strip club, above the amusement arcades, strip clubs, a manky beach and overall pretty low rent.
Cole Grinde
@GrindeOptions
Iran will lose war, U.S. will declare victory.
Oil will drop to around $60/barrel.
The Dow will surpass 50,000.
The S&P 500 will surpass 7,500.
Interest rates will be cut 3-4 times.
The 10 year interest rate will fall.
Unemployment will drop below 4%.
Republicans will win mid terms.
Although it obviously wasn’t the reason the Greens won, Reform are going to insist it’s a cover up.
So what’s the point?
Jerusalem played a blinder. The Americans fell for it
“The right of the party know none of their candidates can win, and the soft left are already getting everything they want, so why bother changing leader?”
Why Labour MPs now believe Starmer will survive the party’s looming election disaster.
God my insight into Labour is good.
Lithuania might be safer as I imagine the Poles might send the tanks in. But not Estonia or Latvia
The thought of Putin, Trump, Netanyahu in cahoots should terrify Europe and ME States.
The one superpower Trump, Netanyahu and Putin fear militarily is China, especially Putin on his eastern flank.
In terms of military power, there is no reason why a non US NATO European rump should not seek non aggression pact with China, including access to Chagos to the detriment of the US and Russia.
China has no military interest in Europe.
Europe can gain massive Chinese investment far more than USA.
You are thinking if the past, the old imperial past. The old NATO past.
The Trump MAGA US is no ally, Israel is a parish State without regime change, Russia is dying on its ass, China can destroy it from the East, by doing that it neuters Russian aggression in the Balkans.
You may think you are gods gift, like many on the right if UK political spectrum, what is needed is a new perspective of a new world order.
China is that new world order we've notbing to fear military from it, we can gain as the UK ans Europe from a non aggression pact and do nothing to support the US or Israel and definitely not Russia if China decides to flex its muscles.
Think on it.
The White House has now launched an app, if you want your lies and propaganda direct from the digital source.
@ddosecrets.org
Kash Patel emails (1.1 GB)
The first tranche of emails from the mailbox of Kash Patel, the director of the FBI, which was hacked by Handala, a hacking group that is believed to have ties to Iranian intelligence.
https://bsky.app/profile/ddosecrets.org/post/3mi2iokglyn2w
Reform UK say that its candidate pictured making an apparent Nazi salute has stepped down "citing issues with his mental health."
https://www.army.mod.uk/news/troops-fully-layered-for-the-fight-on-exercise-winter-camp/
It's not a good option, but it's certainly there. I reckon we could have the status quo drag on for another couple of weeks, or even months.
But ultimately he needs to decide between your choices: escalate or withdraw. I suspect cutting his losses is the least bad outcome, but it doesn't fit his temperament.
He was perfectly affable and civilised, and didn't fall over and vomit
I'd far rather drink with him than Starmer, Davey, or the boring Scots guy
Kemi might be fun but annoying (as a drinking partner). Zak might be amusingly mad
CPAC CROWD: *cheers*
SCHLAPP: No. That was the wrong answer.
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mi2jraxpzk2f
There's a brilliant story about some British officer out in Africa or whatever, who had his son (one of several) under his command. Unfortunately during an action the son was killed. So the officer sent a telegram to the wife
"Your son is dead. Please send another"
That's the spirit we need to regain
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
But if it goes on any longer than that and/or if significantly more energy infrastructure in the Middle East is damaged, then it could get really ugly.