Dr. Sekeres mentions radon, asbestos, microplastics, and air pollution. Again for what it is worth, he is undecided about the risks from microplastics.
Important point: Often these risks are additive, so, for example, you really don't want to live in a house with high levels of radon, breath polluted air -- and smoke.
(Two leaders illustrate what governments should do, and should not do, on air pollution, respectively, GHWB and Angela Merkel.)
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
1989 to 2001 was the really rosy time imo.
Not sure about your date range, although the 1992 to 1997 Tory Government produced some comedy gold.
Oh to have been in a position to buy a house in 1995...
Sadly I was twelve.
Circa 1995 would have coincided with my 18% Bradford and Bingley mortgage rate...
18% of what, though?
I have a friend who bought a house in Cambridge for 550k last year. Was sold in 1995 for 35k. Renovated, but no loft conversion or floor space extension.
I bought that house in Whitchurch in Cardiff as a doer upper in 1991 for £62,000. Houses in that road were going for around £90K. I sold it in 2000 for £135K. However when the mortgage rate starts at a little over 10% in 1991 hitting the dizzy heights of 18% a few years later was no joke.
Are you sure about that ?
Interest rates peaked in October 1989 and were steadily falling throughout 1991 and 1992 (bar the one day wonder of Black Wednesday) and haven't been above 10% since September 1991:
For those who are interested in US politics at the moment an interesting conversation by my two favourite podcasters Medhi Hasan and Krystal Ball about who is saying what. It definitely has a cutting edge that UK podcasts often lack
Unrestricted immigration came with membership of the EEC in 1973; freedom of labour was one of the four freedoms (it was four, right?)
That said, clearly the two 'kickers' that caused the most problems were (a) Maastricht, which meant that you had to treat other EU nationals as if they were citizens of your country from a benefits perspective (and where blame should be laid on Blair's predecessors); and (b) the accession of the Eastern European Eight, without the same transitional controls that other European countries had. And which does need to be laid at the door of the Blair government.
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
The Blair Years...
There was never a better time to be PM than what Blair had.
And what did he achieve during it ?
48 quarters of successive growth
You're putting the cart before the horse.
Blair didn't achieve 48 quarters of growth.
The 48 quarters of growth was why it was such a good time to be PM.
The issue being that many of the problems that the country has suffered since arose in those 48 quarters.
Including 45 successive quarters of trade deficit, 45 successive quarters of falling manufacturing employment and such like for rising house prices and increasing personal debt.
And circa 600 columns from the Economics editor of the Guardian warning about the Fantasy Island Economics.
There was a lot of criticism at the time that trouble was being stored up for later.
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
1989 to 2001 was the really rosy time imo.
Not sure about your date range, although the 1992 to 1997 Tory Government produced some comedy gold.
Oh to have been in a position to buy a house in 1995...
Sadly I was twelve.
Circa 1995 would have coincided with my 18% Bradford and Bingley mortgage rate...
18% of what, though?
I have a friend who bought a house in Cambridge for 550k last year. Was sold in 1995 for 35k. Renovated, but no loft conversion or floor space extension.
I bought that house in Whitchurch in Cardiff as a doer upper in 1991 for £62,000. Houses in that road were going for around £90K. I sold it in 2000 for £135K. However when the mortgage rate starts at a little over 10% in 1991 hitting the dizzy heights of 18% a few years later was no joke.
Are you sure about that ?
Interest rates peaked in October 1989 and were steadily falling throughout 1991 and 1992 (bar the one day wonder of Black Wednesday) and haven't been above 10% since September 1991:
It was an endowment mortgage which meant that the interest was paid but the endowment element if it didn't cover the figure borrowed meant the debt would increase, so to cover that the interest payment was raised. So this might have been mid rather than early 90s. I eventually replaced it with a NatWest repayment mortgage and I believe I claimed money back under a mis-selling compensation package.
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
1989 to 2001 was the really rosy time imo.
Not sure about your date range, although the 1992 to 1997 Tory Government produced some comedy gold.
Oh to have been in a position to buy a house in 1995...
Sadly I was twelve.
Circa 1995 would have coincided with my 18% Bradford and Bingley mortgage rate...
18% of what, though?
I have a friend who bought a house in Cambridge for 550k last year. Was sold in 1995 for 35k. Renovated, but no loft conversion or floor space extension.
I bought that house in Whitchurch in Cardiff as a doer upper in 1991 for £62,000. Houses in that road were going for around £90K. I sold it in 2000 for £135K. However when the mortgage rate starts at a little over 10% in 1991 hitting the dizzy heights of 18% a few years later was no joke.
Are you sure about that ?
Interest rates peaked in October 1989 and were steadily falling throughout 1991 and 1992 (bar the one day wonder of Black Wednesday) and haven't been above 10% since September 1991:
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
1989 to 2001 was the really rosy time imo.
Not sure about your date range, although the 1992 to 1997 Tory Government produced some comedy gold.
Oh to have been in a position to buy a house in 1995...
Sadly I was twelve.
Circa 1995 would have coincided with my 18% Bradford and Bingley mortgage rate...
18% of what, though?
I have a friend who bought a house in Cambridge for 550k last year. Was sold in 1995 for 35k. Renovated, but no loft conversion or floor space extension.
I bought that house in Whitchurch in Cardiff as a doer upper in 1991 for £62,000. Houses in that road were going for around £90K. I sold it in 2000 for £135K. However when the mortgage rate starts at a little over 10% in 1991 hitting the dizzy heights of 18% a few years later was no joke.
Are you sure about that ?
Interest rates peaked in October 1989 and were steadily falling throughout 1991 and 1992 (bar the one day wonder of Black Wednesday) and haven't been above 10% since September 1991:
I might have my dates wrong but I was certainly paying circa 18% on an interest only mortgage in the 1990s.
In 1990 you would have been but was that an endowment mortgage that you had ? I thought interest only mortgages only appeared in the 2000s.
It was an endowment mortgage, see earlier post and the endowment element fell behind the value borrowed, so in order to keep up the repayments increased. So rather than just the interest and the endowment a top up figure to cover the anticipated shortfall was added to the monthly repayment.
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
1989 to 2001 was the really rosy time imo.
Not sure about your date range, although the 1992 to 1997 Tory Government produced some comedy gold.
Oh to have been in a position to buy a house in 1995...
Sadly I was twelve.
Circa 1995 would have coincided with my 18% Bradford and Bingley mortgage rate...
18% of what, though?
I have a friend who bought a house in Cambridge for 550k last year. Was sold in 1995 for 35k. Renovated, but no loft conversion or floor space extension.
I bought that house in Whitchurch in Cardiff as a doer upper in 1991 for £62,000. Houses in that road were going for around £90K. I sold it in 2000 for £135K. However when the mortgage rate starts at a little over 10% in 1991 hitting the dizzy heights of 18% a few years later was no joke.
Are you sure about that ?
Interest rates peaked in October 1989 and were steadily falling throughout 1991 and 1992 (bar the one day wonder of Black Wednesday) and haven't been above 10% since September 1991:
Denmark votes tomorrow and the last polls are all suggesting the "Red" bloc of parties are still narrowly ahead of the "blue" parties.
The current coalition of the Social Democrats, Liberals and Moderates is going to take a beating dropping from 50% to 35%. The parties set to gain seats are the Socialist People's Party (known as the Green Left), Liberal Alliance and the Danish People's Party but the split of Red to Blue parties looks close to last time when it was 49-42 to the Red Bloc. Voxmeter has 49-43, Megafon 49-44 and only Epinion, which traditionally is the strongest poll for the Blue bloc, has the Red bloc leading 47.5-46.
The question is whether Mette Frederiksen can assemble a new Government coalition of centre-left parties or whether a new centre-right administration couled be formed including the Moderates and led by the Liberal Alliance. The other question is whether Frederiksen's head will be the price for the deal on the centre-left exacted by Pia Olsen Dyhr.
This of course is the Red Bloc that broke up EM communities for being too ethnic.
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
1989 to 2001 was the really rosy time imo.
Not sure about your date range, although the 1992 to 1997 Tory Government produced some comedy gold.
Oh to have been in a position to buy a house in 1995...
Sadly I was twelve.
Circa 1995 would have coincided with my 18% Bradford and Bingley mortgage rate...
18% of what, though?
I have a friend who bought a house in Cambridge for 550k last year. Was sold in 1995 for 35k. Renovated, but no loft conversion or floor space extension.
I bought that house in Whitchurch in Cardiff as a doer upper in 1991 for £62,000. Houses in that road were going for around £90K. I sold it in 2000 for £135K. However when the mortgage rate starts at a little over 10% in 1991 hitting the dizzy heights of 18% a few years later was no joke.
Are you sure about that ?
Interest rates peaked in October 1989 and were steadily falling throughout 1991 and 1992 (bar the one day wonder of Black Wednesday) and haven't been above 10% since September 1991:
Did anyone buy Netgear shares before the announcement? Though I'm not sure how much of their stuff is actually US made.
All their consumer stuff is made in Asia and has been for years. Margins on consumer network equipment are tiny (one reason why they're full of security issues) so they're manufactured in the cheapest possible place.
Dr. Sekeres mentions radon, asbestos, microplastics, and air pollution. Again for what it is worth, he is undecided about the risks from microplastics.
Important point: Often these risks are additive, so, for example, you really don't want to live in a house with high levels of radon, breath polluted air -- and smoke.
(Two leaders illustrate what governments should do, and should not do, on air pollution, respectively, GHWB and Angela Merkel.)
Our .ac.uk paid a very significant amount of money for a full asbestos survey of all our buildings. Nice stickers ontop the old paint where there was a risk.
Then our .ac.uk paid a very significant amount of money for a full 'lick of paint' to make the place look a bit brighter. And they painted over all the asbestos warning stickers.
Hence we now need a significant amount of money for a new asbestos survey.
Dr. Sekeres mentions radon, asbestos, microplastics, and air pollution. Again for what it is worth, he is undecided about the risks from microplastics.
Important point: Often these risks are additive, so, for example, you really don't want to live in a house with high levels of radon, breath polluted air -- and smoke.
(Two leaders illustrate what governments should do, and should not do, on air pollution, respectively, GHWB and Angela Merkel.)
Our .ac.uk paid a very significant amount of money for a full asbestos survey of all our buildings. Nice stickers ontop the old paint where there was a risk.
Then our .ac.uk paid a very significant amount of money for a full 'lick of paint' to make the place look a bit brighter. And they painted over all the asbestos warning stickers.
Hence we now need a significant amount of money for a new asbestos survey.
20 GOTO 10
A survey for painted-over stickers would perhaps be easier?
Dr. Sekeres mentions radon, asbestos, microplastics, and air pollution. Again for what it is worth, he is undecided about the risks from microplastics.
Important point: Often these risks are additive, so, for example, you really don't want to live in a house with high levels of radon, breath polluted air -- and smoke.
(Two leaders illustrate what governments should do, and should not do, on air pollution, respectively, GHWB and Angela Merkel.)
Our .ac.uk paid a very significant amount of money for a full asbestos survey of all our buildings. Nice stickers ontop the old paint where there was a risk.
Then our .ac.uk paid a very significant amount of money for a full 'lick of paint' to make the place look a bit brighter. And they painted over all the asbestos warning stickers.
Hence we now need a significant amount of money for a new asbestos survey.
20 GOTO 10
My old college was having a 1970s building refurbished. Some 400 student rooms. They carefully pulled out the original blueprints and warned the contractors there were asbestos heat shields behind the radiators. Cue circular saws straight through the panels and a cleanup operation at the contractors expense...
Dr. Sekeres mentions radon, asbestos, microplastics, and air pollution. Again for what it is worth, he is undecided about the risks from microplastics.
Important point: Often these risks are additive, so, for example, you really don't want to live in a house with high levels of radon, breath polluted air -- and smoke.
(Two leaders illustrate what governments should do, and should not do, on air pollution, respectively, GHWB and Angela Merkel.)
Our .ac.uk paid a very significant amount of money for a full asbestos survey of all our buildings. Nice stickers ontop the old paint where there was a risk.
Then our .ac.uk paid a very significant amount of money for a full 'lick of paint' to make the place look a bit brighter. And they painted over all the asbestos warning stickers.
Hence we now need a significant amount of money for a new asbestos survey.
20 GOTO 10
A survey for painted-over stickers would perhaps be easier?
It could take years to organise that kind of contract change. Are you mad? Repeating the same doomed process over and over is clearly the correct path forward.
Dr. Sekeres mentions radon, asbestos, microplastics, and air pollution. Again for what it is worth, he is undecided about the risks from microplastics.
Important point: Often these risks are additive, so, for example, you really don't want to live in a house with high levels of radon, breath polluted air -- and smoke.
(Two leaders illustrate what governments should do, and should not do, on air pollution, respectively, GHWB and Angela Merkel.)
Our .ac.uk paid a very significant amount of money for a full asbestos survey of all our buildings. Nice stickers ontop the old paint where there was a risk.
Then our .ac.uk paid a very significant amount of money for a full 'lick of paint' to make the place look a bit brighter. And they painted over all the asbestos warning stickers.
Hence we now need a significant amount of money for a new asbestos survey.
20 GOTO 10
A survey for painted-over stickers would perhaps be easier?
Are you mad? Repeating the same doomed process over and over is clearly the correct path forward.
Congratulations on your future appointment as Cabinet Secretary.
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
1989 to 2001 was the really rosy time imo.
Not sure about your date range, although the 1992 to 1997 Tory Government produced some comedy gold.
Oh to have been in a position to buy a house in 1995...
Sadly I was twelve.
Circa 1995 would have coincided with my 18% Bradford and Bingley mortgage rate...
18% of what, though?
I have a friend who bought a house in Cambridge for 550k last year. Was sold in 1995 for 35k. Renovated, but no loft conversion or floor space extension.
I bought that house in Whitchurch in Cardiff as a doer upper in 1991 for £62,000. Houses in that road were going for around £90K. I sold it in 2000 for £135K. However when the mortgage rate starts at a little over 10% in 1991 hitting the dizzy heights of 18% a few years later was no joke.
Are you sure about that ?
Interest rates peaked in October 1989 and were steadily falling throughout 1991 and 1992 (bar the one day wonder of Black Wednesday) and haven't been above 10% since September 1991:
I might have my dates wrong but I was certainly paying circa 18% on an interest only mortgage in the 1990s.
In 1990 you would have been but was that an endowment mortgage that you had ? I thought interest only mortgages only appeared in the 2000s.
An endowment mortgage was an interest only mortgage with a separate endowment policy that was supposed to repay the capital
Indeed.
The interest only mortgages which appeared in the 2000s didn't have any repayment method attached.
And so were extremely risky.
To be pedantic, interest only mortgages were always there, just the way of not paying off the capital changed. In the late 90s I had a manager whose side hustle was buying endowments at above the surrender value and completing the payments.
When it happens re-join day will be designated a national holiday. All across the land bonfires and fireworks will be seen - the culmination of weeks of preparation during which the citizenry will be continually accosted by groups of urchins asking a euro for the Nigel.
You've just reminded me - weren't we supposed to get some sort of Brexit themepark? And/or 'Brexit Day'? I have a vague memory of Mogg being involved. We're just three months or so away from the vote anniversary - we better get something.
Your brexit 50p will have to do.
A collectors item, now worth 50p.
Hey, your side got your own content-free slogan-heavy 50p too:
Fascinating talk from an oncologist this afternoon. I had no idea that only 70% of lung cancer cases are down to smoking. Would have said much higher. Apparently there is a big move to stop victim blaming in king cancer sufferers as it’s a bit harsh on the 30% who have never smoked.
Lung cancer? Smoker? Caused by smoking. Lung cancer? Non-smoker? Caused by passive smoking.
Now smoking rates have dropped and indoor smoking is (mostly) banned, medics are looking round a bit more.
WSJ: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now eager to re-establish deterrence and is close to a decision to join the attacks, the people said. It is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war, one of the people said.
WSJ: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now eager to re-establish deterrence and is close to a decision to join the attacks, the people said. It is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war, one of the people said.
If we rejoin the EU, Nigel Farage might start a party to campaign to leave it. Independence for the UK Party or some such
And, undignified as it is to say it, that's why we can't just cut to the chase, even if it were agreed to be in the national interest. Farage is many things, a lot of them horrible, but he is also incredibly effective as a Eurosceptic campaigner. As long as he is still a viable politician, pushing for rejoining is a very risky move.
My Theory of Brexit has always been that it has a heavy component of generational vibes. The wartime and immediate post-war generations got the point of European union, generation Brexit hankered for their pre-1973 youth, generations below them hanker for their youth in the post-1992(ish) era.
So in the meantime, we all wait.
All of that could prove to be very wishful thinking.
WSJ: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now eager to re-establish deterrence and is close to a decision to join the attacks, the people said. It is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war, one of the people said.
The GCC countries need to get the oil moving. The direct Iranian attacks appear much diminished in recent days, so their attention will now inevitably turn to the Straight and the need to get it open for business.
WSJ: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now eager to re-establish deterrence and is close to a decision to join the attacks, the people said. It is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war, one of the people said.
The GCC countries need to get the oil moving. The direct Iranian attacks appear much diminished in recent days, so their attention will now inevitably turn to the Straight and the need to get it open for business.
I am hopeful... but at the same time, the ability for a small number of people with drones to cause a lot of disruption remains.
Being short-termist, the best hope is for a peace deal this week where Iran agrees not to work on a bomb, the US agrees to stop bombing Iran, and the Straits are reopened is probably the most we can ask for.
It would have been nice to see the Mullahs fall, and the be replaced by a democratic secular government... But the Mullahs have the guns. And nothing the Israelis and the US has done has made it any easier for the opposition.
So, short-termism wins: Iran's capability to do mischief is diminished. But the people of Iran have barely benefited.
Denmark votes tomorrow and the last polls are all suggesting the "Red" bloc of parties are still narrowly ahead of the "blue" parties.
The current coalition of the Social Democrats, Liberals and Moderates is going to take a beating dropping from 50% to 35%. The parties set to gain seats are the Socialist People's Party (known as the Green Left), Liberal Alliance and the Danish People's Party but the split of Red to Blue parties looks close to last time when it was 49-42 to the Red Bloc. Voxmeter has 49-43, Megafon 49-44 and only Epinion, which traditionally is the strongest poll for the Blue bloc, has the Red bloc leading 47.5-46.
The question is whether Mette Frederiksen can assemble a new Government coalition of centre-left parties or whether a new centre-right administration couled be formed including the Moderates and led by the Liberal Alliance. The other question is whether Frederiksen's head will be the price for the deal on the centre-left exacted by Pia Olsen Dyhr.
A couple of days later the Faroe Islands are voting, and the forecast is a large majority for parties that support independence. After Greenland, that is not a risk free choice.
WSJ: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now eager to re-establish deterrence and is close to a decision to join the attacks, the people said. It is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war, one of the people said.
The GCC countries need to get the oil moving. The direct Iranian attacks appear much diminished in recent days, so their attention will now inevitably turn to the Straight and the need to get it open for business.
I am hopeful... but at the same time, the ability for a small number of people with drones to cause a lot of disruption remains.
Being short-termist, the best hope is for a peace deal this week where Iran agrees not to work on a bomb, the US agrees to stop bombing Iran, and the Straits are reopened is probably the most we can ask for.
It would have been nice to see the Mullahs fall, and the be replaced by a democratic secular government... But the Mullahs have the guns. And nothing the Israelis and the US has done has made it any easier for the opposition.
So, short-termism wins: Iran's capability to do mischief is diminished. But the people of Iran have barely benefited.
Arguably, they are considerably worse off. Not only the war damage and the continuing regime violence but the IRGC has essentially taken over directly.
WSJ: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now eager to re-establish deterrence and is close to a decision to join the attacks, the people said. It is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war, one of the people said.
The GCC countries need to get the oil moving. The direct Iranian attacks appear much diminished in recent days, so their attention will now inevitably turn to the Straight and the need to get it open for business.
I am hopeful... but at the same time, the ability for a small number of people with drones to cause a lot of disruption remains.
Being short-termist, the best hope is for a peace deal this week where Iran agrees not to work on a bomb, the US agrees to stop bombing Iran, and the Straits are reopened is probably the most we can ask for.
It would have been nice to see the Mullahs fall, and the be replaced by a democratic secular government... But the Mullahs have the guns. And nothing the Israelis and the US has done has made it any easier for the opposition.
So, short-termism wins: Iran's capability to do mischief is diminished. But the people of Iran have barely benefited.
Arguably, they are considerably worse off. Not only the war damage and the continuing regime violence but the IRGC has essentially taken over directly.
My Persian friends here -who probably lean Republican on average- are incredibly depressed about the whole thing. The Mullahs have strengthened their grip while the lives of everyday Iranians have worsened
Unrestricted immigration came with membership of the EEC in 1973; freedom of labour was one of the four freedoms (it was four, right?)
That said, clearly the two 'kickers' that caused the most problems were (a) Maastricht, which meant that you had to treat other EU nationals as if they were citizens of your country from a benefits perspective (and where blame should be laid on Blair's predecessors); and (b) the accession of the Eastern European Eight, without the same transitional controls that other European countries had. And which does need to be laid at the door of the Blair government.
Slightly wrong on the benefits comment. You treated EU nationals like your own if they were searching for work. If they were not deemed to be a 'worker', the DWP would stop benefits. Left a few EU nationals destitute and forced to return home. This is why all those EU nationals tended to be a) young and b) able to move back to their own countries after Brexit.
The Boris Wave was nothing like this, and will be a real issue soon with ILR which is why they are trying to get it to 10 years - with the comments about child poverty/destitution if it does happen.
It would be accurate to say that if Boris did know what he was doing, he has gifted the Right (and hard left) a live issue that will go on for years
WSJ: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now eager to re-establish deterrence and is close to a decision to join the attacks, the people said. It is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war, one of the people said.
The GCC countries need to get the oil moving. The direct Iranian attacks appear much diminished in recent days, so their attention will now inevitably turn to the Straight and the need to get it open for business.
I am hopeful... but at the same time, the ability for a small number of people with drones to cause a lot of disruption remains.
Being short-termist, the best hope is for a peace deal this week where Iran agrees not to work on a bomb, the US agrees to stop bombing Iran, and the Straits are reopened is probably the most we can ask for.
It would have been nice to see the Mullahs fall, and the be replaced by a democratic secular government... But the Mullahs have the guns. And nothing the Israelis and the US has done has made it any easier for the opposition.
So, short-termism wins: Iran's capability to do mischief is diminished. But the people of Iran have barely benefited.
I think the resolve now within the GCC is to defeat the mullahs. In their mind they were on the receiving end of totally unprovoked attacks on civilian targets.
Whether or not the Americans want to put boots on the ground, is up to the Americans - I can’t see it myself, for all his many faults Trump couldn’t live with the idea of transport planes coming home full of flag-draped coffins every day, as happened in Iraq.
The first priority is to secure the shipping lanes, but once that is done the whole region will want a compliant Iran. They’ve been the source of almost all of the regional instability since 1979.
WSJ: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now eager to re-establish deterrence and is close to a decision to join the attacks, the people said. It is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war, one of the people said.
The GCC countries need to get the oil moving. The direct Iranian attacks appear much diminished in recent days, so their attention will now inevitably turn to the Straight and the need to get it open for business.
I am hopeful... but at the same time, the ability for a small number of people with drones to cause a lot of disruption remains.
Being short-termist, the best hope is for a peace deal this week where Iran agrees not to work on a bomb, the US agrees to stop bombing Iran, and the Straits are reopened is probably the most we can ask for.
It would have been nice to see the Mullahs fall, and the be replaced by a democratic secular government... But the Mullahs have the guns. And nothing the Israelis and the US has done has made it any easier for the opposition.
So, short-termism wins: Iran's capability to do mischief is diminished. But the people of Iran have barely benefited.
I think the resolve now within the GCC is to defeat the mullahs. In their mind they were on the receiving end of totally unprovoked attacks on civilian targets.
Whether or not the Americans want to put boots on the ground, is up to the Americans - I can’t see it myself, for all his many faults Trump couldn’t live with the idea of transport planes coming home full of flag-draped coffins every day, as happened in Iraq.
The first priority is to secure the shipping lanes, but once that is done the whole region will want a compliant Iran. They’ve been the source of almost all of the regional instability since 1979.
Ultimately, though, the Persians will still exist. Whether under the Shah or the Mullahs, they have been... competitors with the other Gulf states. A change in government does not stop there being a large Shia country on the doorstep of the Gulf.
Unrestricted immigration came with membership of the EEC in 1973; freedom of labour was one of the four freedoms (it was four, right?)
That said, clearly the two 'kickers' that caused the most problems were (a) Maastricht, which meant that you had to treat other EU nationals as if they were citizens of your country from a benefits perspective (and where blame should be laid on Blair's predecessors); and (b) the accession of the Eastern European Eight, without the same transitional controls that other European countries had. And which does need to be laid at the door of the Blair government.
Slightly wrong on the benefits comment. You treated EU nationals like your own if they were searching for work. If they were not deemed to be a 'worker', the DWP would stop benefits. Left a few EU nationals destitute and forced to return home. This is why all those EU nationals tended to be a) young and b) able to move back to their own countries after Brexit.
The Boris Wave was nothing like this, and will be a real issue soon with ILR which is why they are trying to get it to 10 years - with the comments about child poverty/destitution if it does happen.
It would be accurate to say that if Boris did know what he was doing, he has gifted the Right (and hard left) a live issue that will go on for years
Circular migration - with a significant percentage of EU migrants returning home - was pretty high while we were still in the EU.
Denmark votes tomorrow and the last polls are all suggesting the "Red" bloc of parties are still narrowly ahead of the "blue" parties.
The current coalition of the Social Democrats, Liberals and Moderates is going to take a beating dropping from 50% to 35%. The parties set to gain seats are the Socialist People's Party (known as the Green Left), Liberal Alliance and the Danish People's Party but the split of Red to Blue parties looks close to last time when it was 49-42 to the Red Bloc. Voxmeter has 49-43, Megafon 49-44 and only Epinion, which traditionally is the strongest poll for the Blue bloc, has the Red bloc leading 47.5-46.
The question is whether Mette Frederiksen can assemble a new Government coalition of centre-left parties or whether a new centre-right administration couled be formed including the Moderates and led by the Liberal Alliance. The other question is whether Frederiksen's head will be the price for the deal on the centre-left exacted by Pia Olsen Dyhr.
A couple of days later the Faroe Islands are voting, and the forecast is a large majority for parties that support independence. After Greenland, that is not a risk free choice.
They'll be fine, as long as they continue to fail to find oil. Trump has no interest in puffins.
WSJ: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now eager to re-establish deterrence and is close to a decision to join the attacks, the people said. It is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war, one of the people said.
The GCC countries need to get the oil moving. The direct Iranian attacks appear much diminished in recent days, so their attention will now inevitably turn to the Straight and the need to get it open for business.
I am hopeful... but at the same time, the ability for a small number of people with drones to cause a lot of disruption remains.
Being short-termist, the best hope is for a peace deal this week where Iran agrees not to work on a bomb, the US agrees to stop bombing Iran, and the Straits are reopened is probably the most we can ask for.
It would have been nice to see the Mullahs fall, and the be replaced by a democratic secular government... But the Mullahs have the guns. And nothing the Israelis and the US has done has made it any easier for the opposition.
So, short-termism wins: Iran's capability to do mischief is diminished. But the people of Iran have barely benefited.
I think the resolve now within the GCC is to defeat the mullahs. In their mind they were on the receiving end of totally unprovoked attacks on civilian targets.
Whether or not the Americans want to put boots on the ground, is up to the Americans - I can’t see it myself, for all his many faults Trump couldn’t live with the idea of transport planes coming home full of flag-draped coffins every day, as happened in Iraq.
The first priority is to secure the shipping lanes, but once that is done the whole region will want a compliant Iran. They’ve been the source of almost all of the regional instability since 1979.
Ultimately, though, the Persians will still exist. Whether under the Shah or the Mullahs, they have been... competitors with the other Gulf states. A change in government does not stop there being a large Shia country on the doorstep of the Gulf.
Either a greatly diminished or a reformed Iran would be less of a threat though. Either would be progress.
Iraq used to be as much of a source of instability as Iran but it is not remotely as much of a threat today.
Given the remaining strength of the IRGC it is far too premature to end hostilities.
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
The Blair Years...
There was never a better time to be PM than what Blair had.
And what did he achieve during it ?
48 quarters of successive growth
Medicated growth by stoking a credit bubble and allowing mass immigration.
Immigration was lower under Blair than under Cameron/May/Johnson/Truss/Sunak.
So was national debt.
You could argue that the issue is not with the politicians but with the voters who are happy to pass on costs to future generations. But they don't like the solution (more working age immigration) either.
We are not far off an effective 4 way tie with YouGov
It's clear Reform are on the skids. We can all have our own theories. Mine is that the zeitgeist has shifted. They have become associated with things that are now seen as ugly. Trump Netanyahu bombing lying ,,,,,,their USP that they could be more ruthless with people fleeing persecution dioesn't seem quite as attractive anymore.
........The people associated with them don't seem quite as fresh......hand me down politicians from a time not so long ago. Do they feel a little shop soiled?
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
1989 to 2001 was the really rosy time imo.
Not sure about your date range, although the 1992 to 1997 Tory Government produced some comedy gold.
Oh to have been in a position to buy a house in 1995...
Sadly I was twelve.
Circa 1995 would have coincided with my 18% Bradford and Bingley mortgage rate...
18% of what, though?
I have a friend who bought a house in Cambridge for 550k last year. Was sold in 1995 for 35k. Renovated, but no loft conversion or floor space extension.
I bought that house in Whitchurch in Cardiff as a doer upper in 1991 for £62,000. Houses in that road were going for around £90K. I sold it in 2000 for £135K. However when the mortgage rate starts at a little over 10% in 1991 hitting the dizzy heights of 18% a few years later was no joke.
Are you sure about that ?
Interest rates peaked in October 1989 and were steadily falling throughout 1991 and 1992 (bar the one day wonder of Black Wednesday) and haven't been above 10% since September 1991:
I might have my dates wrong but I was certainly paying circa 18% on an interest only mortgage in the 1990s.
In 1990 you would have been but was that an endowment mortgage that you had ? I thought interest only mortgages only appeared in the 2000s.
It was an endowment mortgage, see earlier post and the endowment element fell behind the value borrowed, so in order to keep up the repayments increased. So rather than just the interest and the endowment a top up figure to cover the anticipated shortfall was added to the monthly repayment.
Bit like when Labour had my grandfather pay 106% income tax?
We are not far off an effective 4 way tie with YouGov
It's clear Reform are on the skids. We can all have our own theories. Mine is that the zeitgeist has shifted. They have become associated with things that are now seen as ugly. Trump Netanyahu bombing lying ,,,,,,their USP that they could be more ruthless with people fleeing persecution dioesn't seem quite as attractive anymore.
........The people associated with them don't seem quite as fresh......hand me down politicians from a time not so long ago. Do they feel a little shop soiled?
It is also down to media exposure. Farage has been silent since the early days of the war until he popped up with his mandatory smoking in public nonsense.
Once GBN, the DT and Chris Mason fawn over him again Reform'll be fine.
We are not far off an effective 4 way tie with YouGov
It's clear Reform are on the skids. We can all have our own theories. Mine is that the zeitgeist has shifted. They have become associated with things that are now seen as ugly. Trump Netanyahu bombing lying ,,,,,,their USP that they could be more ruthless with people fleeing persecution dioesn't seem quite as attractive anymore.
........The people associated with them don't seem quite as fresh......hand me down politicians from a time not so long ago. Do they feel a little shop soiled?
They are no longer the shiny new pin for the dissatisfied (Pokanski and Lowe are the new thing) and it's simply not possible to keep your vote absolutely raging for 5 years which they need for 'full potential'. And Nadhim Zahawi
We are not far off an effective 4 way tie with YouGov
It's clear Reform are on the skids. We can all have our own theories. Mine is that the zeitgeist has shifted. They have become associated with things that are now seen as ugly. Trump Netanyahu bombing lying ,,,,,,their USP that they could be more ruthless with people fleeing persecution dioesn't seem quite as attractive anymore.
........The people associated with them don't seem quite as fresh......hand me down politicians from a time not so long ago. Do they feel a little shop soiled?
Which makes the Tory move to out flank Reform on the right on foreign policy, immigration, race wars, and other issues, even more barmy.
Tory leadership are going against the trend like a one legged army
Comments
* Pete Hegseth made me do it though will be in the historical record.
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
@citrinowicz
Ghalibaf is not Delcy. Iran is not Venezuela.
https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2036205779150106844
Its also clear that Trump doesn't have the patience for a sustained war.
What did Blair initiate as PM ?
Student tuition fees
Unrestricted immigration
Devolution
Anything else ?
Dr. Sekeres mentions radon, asbestos, microplastics, and air pollution. Again for what it is worth, he is undecided about the risks from microplastics.
Important point: Often these risks are additive, so, for example, you really don't want to live in a house with high levels of radon, breath polluted air -- and smoke.
(Two leaders illustrate what governments should do, and should not do, on air pollution, respectively, GHWB and Angela Merkel.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsVu41g3V4k
That said, clearly the two 'kickers' that caused the most problems were (a) Maastricht, which meant that you had to treat other EU nationals as if they were citizens of your country from a benefits perspective (and where blame should be laid on Blair's predecessors); and (b) the accession of the Eastern European Eight, without the same transitional controls that other European countries had. And which does need to be laid at the door of the Blair government.
There was a lot of criticism at the time that trouble was being stored up for later.
Tom Scott is back.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yz3lSKgz4q8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NHv6owsCvw&t=61s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UFhePH68Ac
The interest only mortgages which appeared in the 2000s didn't have any repayment method attached.
And so were extremely risky.
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/2036218183900704858
HS2 trains could run 16% slower than planned to save billions, minister says
Then our .ac.uk paid a very significant amount of money for a full 'lick of paint' to make the place look a bit brighter. And they painted over all the asbestos warning stickers.
Hence we now need a significant amount of money for a new asbestos survey.
In the late 90s I had a manager whose side hustle was buying endowments at above the surrender value and completing the payments.
https://x.com/Breaking911/status/2036233543362240995
Smoke is seen billowing from Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas following reports of an explosion
The slide. Mr Moon Face. The land of dreams.
They were the first books I fell in love with.
IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency claims that the US and Israel has carried out strikes on two "energy infrastructure" sites
Damn
(punches wall)
Lung cancer? Non-smoker? Caused by passive smoking.
Now smoking rates have dropped and indoor smoking is (mostly) banned, medics are looking round a bit more.
WSJ: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now eager to re-establish deterrence and is close to a decision to join the attacks, the people said. It is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war, one of the people said.
https://x.com/janosbano/status/2036207492548444621
So there’s going to be one country not benefitting from the oil price rises.
Being short-termist, the best hope is for a peace deal this week where Iran agrees not to work on a bomb, the US agrees to stop bombing Iran, and the Straits are reopened is probably the most we can ask for.
It would have been nice to see the Mullahs fall, and the be replaced by a democratic secular government... But the Mullahs have the guns. And nothing the Israelis and the US has done has made it any easier for the opposition.
So, short-termism wins: Iran's capability to do mischief is diminished. But the people of Iran have barely benefited.
The Boris Wave was nothing like this, and will be a real issue soon with ILR which is why they are trying to get it to 10 years - with the comments about child poverty/destitution if it does happen.
It would be accurate to say that if Boris did know what he was doing, he has gifted the Right (and hard left) a live issue that will go on for years
Whether or not the Americans want to put boots on the ground, is up to the Americans - I can’t see it myself, for all his many faults Trump couldn’t live with the idea of transport planes coming home full of flag-draped coffins every day, as happened in Iraq.
The first priority is to secure the shipping lanes, but once that is done the whole region will want a compliant Iran. They’ve been the source of almost all of the regional instability since 1979.
Israeli military says it will continue operations in line with Israeli government directives until told otherwise
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/23/israel-launches-new-strikes-on-tehran-as-trump-pauses-iran-energy-attacks
Iraq used to be as much of a source of instability as Iran but it is not remotely as much of a threat today.
Given the remaining strength of the IRGC it is far too premature to end hostilities.
“We are continuing to strike in both Iran and Lebanon,” the Israeli prime minister said on Monday night.
“We are smashing the missile programme and the nuclear programme, and we continue to deal severe blows to Hezbollah. Just a few days ago, we eliminated two more nuclear scientists – and we are still active.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/23/iran-war-latest-news-trump-strait-of-hormuz-israel/ (£££)
Remember George, this is no time to go wobbly.
Andy Pipkins: "I want that country....."
Lou Todd: "Are you sure now?"
Andy Pipkins: "Don't like it...."
Lou Todd: "What a kerfuffle!"
Andy Pipkins: "Yeah I know....."
Lou Todd: "Now, shall we have another round of bombing?"
Andy Pipkins: "I want that one....."
Lou Todd: "Are you sure now?"
Andy Pipkins: "Yeah....."
pause
Andy Pipkins: "Don't like it....."
YouGov brings a tightening
Ref 23 (-2)
Lab 19 (+2)
Grn 18 (-1)
Con 17 (=)
LD 13 (-1)
We are not far off an effective 4 way tie with YouGov
You could argue that the issue is not with the politicians but with the voters who are happy to pass on costs to future generations. But they don't like the solution (more working age immigration) either.
Hundreds fewer seats.
Shame.
........The people associated with them don't seem quite as fresh......hand me down politicians from a time not so long ago. Do they feel a little shop soiled?
Con - LD (4% = Lib Dem gains in South)
Lab - Grn (1% = Green gains in cities)
Ref - (Con + Lab) (13% = Ref gains in erstwhile Lab-Con marginals)
Once GBN, the DT and Chris Mason fawn over him again Reform'll be fine.
And Nadhim Zahawi
£21 for the first and £12.50 for all subsequent.
Who makes up the difference, where there is one ?
https://x.com/skynews/status/2036345099399946574?s=61
1) Tough
2) expensive drugs just won't be prescribed..
Tory leadership are going against the trend like a one legged army
Right
Right
Right
Barmy