An interesting sign of the times. Ukraine will stop sending recruits abroad for military training because western instructors lack experience in modern combat.
It's more to do with the unsustainable amount of AWOLs they get in foreign locations. Hundreds a time went missing in Spain. They still wanted to be trained by NATO Instructors (mainly French) because they can't take Ukrainian SNCOs off the front line to do it, they just want it done in Ukraine so gopniks can't leg it.
Forgot to sat there is an interview on Noviny Live with Mark Francois lookalike Gen. Mezhevikin who is head of Doctrine and Training where he lays all this out. Basically foreign authorities will put no effort into looking for and apprehending the AWOL. It's quite amusing because he's a native Russian speaker who has to gasp and flounder his way through the interview in Ukrainian for reasons.
Give credit to Iran here. Lobbing an IRBM at Diego Garcia is showing just how not demolished they are.
Trump now his two choices. The forever war. Or the everyone laughing at Trump forever capitulation.
Saw someone, somewhere, make the point that the humiliation of the US in this war shows that they would not be able to prevent China from conquering Taiwan (whether Taiwan would be able to is a separate question).
In this way Trump's humiliation over Iran in March 2026 mirrors Biden's humiliation over the fall of Kabul in summer 2021, which arguably convinced Putin the US wouldn't actively oppose an invasion of Ukraine (and in that he was right - Biden's response was to offer evacuation help to Zelensky, so Putin's misjudgement was of Zelensky and Ukraine, not Biden and the US).
I'm tentatively penciling in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan for just after Chinese New Year 2027. As a bonus the US will be bitterly divided over the outcome of the midterms, one way or another.
I cannot imagine a better window of opportunity for Xi.
Does any country other than China manufacture solar panels?
Xi would be learning precisely the wrong lesson. Ukraine and Iran both illustrate the folly of a country, no matter how powerful, attempting to win a war that for them is one of choice, but for the target is existential.
If China thinks the lesson from this is that Taiwan would be a walkover then it’s less strategically intelligent than we thought.
The thing is China is still, mostly, Xi. And Xi wants to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. And Xi is an old man in a hurry. And it's a very human failing to rationalise as possible, even likely, what you want to happen.
I think it's definitely a mistake to assume that the people involved will make optimal choices.
What this shows is that if Xi wants regime change in Taiwan it needs Chinese groundtroops which means Chinese body bags. US and Israeli strikes alone are not removing the Iranian regime.
Even then it is not guaranteed, Putin has sent groundtroops into Ukraine but still only captured about a quarter of the country for Russia
If modern warfare proves anything it is that if you’re the defending side, and you have no choice but to fight, you have some big advantages over the attacker. You don’t need to secure total victory, you just need to hurt the enemy until they stop.
TBF, you could make a reasonable case that was the lesson of the Battles of Verdun and the Somme.
And it was the lesson the French drew in building the Maginot Line...
I am not sure that is the lesson of those battles.
At Verdun the German plan was to take the fortress and then the French would exhaust themselves trying to retake what was more a prestige asset rather than a strategic one. In that drawn out battle it was mainly the French attacking and the Germans attriting them.
At the Somme the Geermans shifted from a fixed stronghold system of defence into a more dynamic mobile defence of lightly held forward trenches then counterattack
At Passchendale the British Imperial forces countered what they had struggled with at the Somme by moving to "bite and hold" rather than attempting a break through. They would take the forward German trenches then prepare for the counter attack and take defenders advantage.
In 1918 the Germans evolved the "Schosstruppen" approach of bypassing strongpoints and the Imperial forces moved to much more coordinated combined arms approaches with air, artillery, tanks and infantry closely co ordinated, thereby breaking the German Army in the battles of the 100 days, even breaking through the Hindenburg line fairly quickly.
The image of General Melchett is a powerful myth, but at vast cost both armies had figured out how to win battles.
We largely forgot these lessons by 1940 of course.
The last bit isn't true. After the failure of 1940 most British battles were essentially 1918 style battles. Surprise, hurricane bombardment, even creeping barrages. Monty basically re ran the hundred days.
Yes, Monty's successful battles (El Alamein, D day) were bassically 1918 revisited. When he tried something different like Market Garden it was a major defeat.
What we failed to do in the interwar period was to do what the Germans realised. Schosstruppen plus careful combined arms integration was how the Germans rampaged across europe in 39-41. They did not have superior tanks or aircraft in either quality or numbers, but did have the winning formula for restoring war of manouvre.
Patton was the only commander who really got the formula on the western front, with several Soviet generals getting it too. Bagration was perhaps the finest example there.
I think the Soviets success was also down to a complete disregard for the lives of the soviet troops. Market Garden was a defeat, by only just. Allied ability to deliver ran behind the imagination. If all the troops had been dropped at Arnhem on day 1 it would have been a success.
Give credit to Iran here. Lobbing an IRBM at Diego Garcia is showing just how not demolished they are.
Trump now his two choices. The forever war. Or the everyone laughing at Trump forever capitulation.
He has way more latitude than that. He can declare victory, withdraw US forces and pressure others to take the incoming to reopen the strait. Starmer and others will fold and do it before too long.
E2A: Trump only needs one of Starmer or Macron on board to get the other. Neither the UK nor France could bear the other getting the limelight and, who knows, it might all go brilliantly. I mean, it won't, but it might.
“I mean, it won't, but it might.”
I disagree. It’s bound to go brilliantly and it’s the best quickest option on the table.
Once the US leave the region and stop bombing and leave it to us, it’s easypeasy. We simply chat to the Iranians and do a deal with them.
The Iranians, or at least the mullahs, haven't forgiven us yet for our shady dealings at the time of their revolution. And for sitting on that money for the tanks for which they eventually freed Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.
Have they not recently acquired two more British hostages?
Indeed they have. A couple foolish enough to try to cross Iran without escort. I gather it wasn't too dangerous to go in an escorted party, but no way should you go on your own. Even with, as this couple had, an official guide.
I sympathise with them but they were foolish or naive or follishly naive.
Give credit to Iran here. Lobbing an IRBM at Diego Garcia is showing just how not demolished they are.
Trump now his two choices. The forever war. Or the everyone laughing at Trump forever capitulation.
He has way more latitude than that. He can declare victory, withdraw US forces and pressure others to take the incoming to reopen the strait. Starmer and others will fold and do it before too long.
E2A: Trump only needs one of Starmer or Macron on board to get the other. Neither the UK nor France could bear the other getting the limelight and, who knows, it might all go brilliantly. I mean, it won't, but it might.
“I mean, it won't, but it might.”
I disagree. It’s bound to go brilliantly and it’s the best quickest option on the table.
Once the US leave the region and stop bombing and leave it to us, it’s easypeasy. We simply chat to the Iranians and do a deal with them.
The Iranians, or at least the mullahs, haven't forgiven us yet for our shady dealings at the time of their revolution. And for sitting on that money for the tanks for which they eventually freed Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.
All true. But once Trump stops and his armada sails away, Iran will be pretty keen to re-open the strait and stop bombing others too. Any discussion with them, despite our previous, will be like pushing against an open door I think.
For the new towns names, why not go with much loved fictitious British places like Blandings or Walmington-on-Sea, or Walford or Emmerdale? Trumpton is probably out.
Midsomer, perhaps.
That name for me has a sinister vibe to it. I associate it with brutal murders and Wicker Man type activities. Wouldn't visit.
And you might run into John Nettles and nobody wants that
My mum likes him.
He used to be with writer Rose Tremain, some many years ago...
Midsoner Norton is not far from me - always crack a joke about murder rates, although the fictional version is home counties.
It was (is) filmed around south Oxfordshire/Bucks. Used to enjpoy spotting locations in Wallingford/Watlington/Thames.
Frankly, not much other reason to watch it! The only actor you've ever heard of is always the murderer...
Give credit to Iran here. Lobbing an IRBM at Diego Garcia is showing just how not demolished they are.
Trump now his two choices. The forever war. Or the everyone laughing at Trump forever capitulation.
Saw someone, somewhere, make the point that the humiliation of the US in this war shows that they would not be able to prevent China from conquering Taiwan (whether Taiwan would be able to is a separate question).
In this way Trump's humiliation over Iran in March 2026 mirrors Biden's humiliation over the fall of Kabul in summer 2021, which arguably convinced Putin the US wouldn't actively oppose an invasion of Ukraine (and in that he was right - Biden's response was to offer evacuation help to Zelensky, so Putin's misjudgement was of Zelensky and Ukraine, not Biden and the US).
I'm tentatively penciling in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan for just after Chinese New Year 2027. As a bonus the US will be bitterly divided over the outcome of the midterms, one way or another.
I cannot imagine a better window of opportunity for Xi.
Does any country other than China manufacture solar panels?
Xi would be learning precisely the wrong lesson. Ukraine and Iran both illustrate the folly of a country, no matter how powerful, attempting to win a war that for them is one of choice, but for the target is existential.
If China thinks the lesson from this is that Taiwan would be a walkover then it’s less strategically intelligent than we thought.
The thing is China is still, mostly, Xi. And Xi wants to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. And Xi is an old man in a hurry. And it's a very human failing to rationalise as possible, even likely, what you want to happen.
I think it's definitely a mistake to assume that the people involved will make optimal choices.
What this shows is that if Xi wants regime change in Taiwan it needs Chinese groundtroops which means Chinese body bags. US and Israeli strikes alone are not removing the Iranian regime.
Even then it is not guaranteed, Putin has sent groundtroops into Ukraine but still only captured about a quarter of the country for Russia
If modern warfare proves anything it is that if you’re the defending side, and you have no choice but to fight, you have some big advantages over the attacker. You don’t need to secure total victory, you just need to hurt the enemy until they stop.
TBF, you could make a reasonable case that was the lesson of the Battles of Verdun and the Somme.
And it was the lesson the French drew in building the Maginot Line...
I am not sure that is the lesson of those battles.
At Verdun the German plan was to take the fortress and then the French would exhaust themselves trying to retake what was more a prestige asset rather than a strategic one. In that drawn out battle it was mainly the French attacking and the Germans attriting them.
At the Somme the Geermans shifted from a fixed stronghold system of defence into a more dynamic mobile defence of lightly held forward trenches then counterattack
At Passchendale the British Imperial forces countered what they had struggled with at the Somme by moving to "bite and hold" rather than attempting a break through. They would take the forward German trenches then prepare for the counter attack and take defenders advantage.
In 1918 the Germans evolved the "Schosstruppen" approach of bypassing strongpoints and the Imperial forces moved to much more coordinated combined arms approaches with air, artillery, tanks and infantry closely co ordinated, thereby breaking the German Army in the battles of the 100 days, even breaking through the Hindenburg line fairly quickly.
The image of General Melchett is a powerful myth, but at vast cost both armies had figured out how to win battles.
We largely forgot these lessons by 1940 of course.
The last bit isn't true. After the failure of 1940 most British battles were essentially 1918 style battles. Surprise, hurricane bombardment, even creeping barrages. Monty basically re ran the hundred days.
Yes, Monty's successful battles (El Alamein, D day) were bassically 1918 revisited. When he tried something different like Market Garden it was a major defeat.
What we failed to do in the interwar period was to do what the Germans realised. Schosstruppen plus careful combined arms integration was how the Germans rampaged across europe in 39-41. They did not have superior tanks or aircraft in either quality or numbers, but did have the winning formula for restoring war of manouvre.
Patton was the only commander who really got the formula on the western front, with several Soviet generals getting it too. Bagration was perhaps the finest example there.
I think the Soviets success was also down to a complete disregard for the lives of the soviet troops. Market Garden was a defeat, by only just. Allied ability to deliver ran behind the imagination. If all the troops had been dropped at Arnhem on day 1 it would have been a success.
Bagration was transformed from an operational success to a complete rout, by the supply of US vehicles. Even then, as you say, Soviet casualties were dreadful.
The US helping to fund Iran as they’re attacking it !
The Iranians coffers will be approx 14 billion dollars richer after the US lifted sanctions .
Worst US President in history continues.
And there's this:
5. So where does this leave us? Iran is more determined, more motivated, and driven by a growing sense of grievance while retaining roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, with no clear strategy in place to address it.
An interesting sign of the times. Ukraine will stop sending recruits abroad for military training because western instructors lack experience in modern combat.
It's more to do with the unsustainable amount of AWOLs they get in foreign locations. Hundreds a time went missing in Spain. They still wanted to be trained by NATO Instructors (mainly French) because they can't take Ukrainian SNCOs off the front line to do it, they just want it done in Ukraine so gopniks can't leg it.
Forgot to sat there is an interview on Noviny Live with Mark Francois lookalike Gen. Mezhevikin who is head of Doctrine and Training where he lays all this out. Basically foreign authorities will put no effort into looking for and apprehending the AWOL. It's quite amusing because he's a native Russian speaker who has to gasp and flounder his way through the interview in Ukrainian for reasons.
Are Russian and Ukrainian vaguely intelligible to speakers of either? Like someone with a strong Geordie accent speaking to someone with a strong Scouse accent for example? Edit to add, not just the accents but words and phrases peculiar to each area.
Can someone explain how a direct attack on UK territory, one that drastically alters the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies, is not something the Government thinks should be shared with the British people or Parliament.
If you tether yourself to an incontinent donkey you're going to get showered. To the great British public Starmer has joinied Trumps madcap army.. The fact that he's been assigned the job of cleaning the toilets just makes us look worse.
Would Carney or Macron have volunteered?
You are facing down an economic event of Biblical proportions thanks to Trump and Bibi's ghost. I can't see that doing nothing to defend access to the straits is an option. How to strategize that without loss of military personnel is quite the conundrum.
As John McDonnell said it starts with an acorn and before you know it you're facing an oak tree.
John McDonnell is a stain on the Labour Party.
Gutless coward like Corbyn, Abbott, Long Bailey, Burgeon.
They cannot be allowed to regain influence. Should have been binned off long ago.
Really? You encourage me to leave and join the Greens, after 13 years in Parliament (not a member of any pressure group or consistently left-wing) and 50 years in the party, though I'm waiting for the local elections and any aftermath before deciding. Defining a party by exclusion is ultimately self-defeating, not least as once you start you end up excluding moderate people who disagree with you on anything.
For many years on this forum you have been the most interesting and decent poster never turning to foul language or personal abuse and actually provided one of the most gobsmacking and amusing moments in your life and though we are politically a distance apart, your love of animal welfare is very much a cause for our family and the Welsh government's ban on greyhound racing has been well received
You were an excellent MP and a wise advisor and if anyone could persuade me to your views you can
Compare and contrast that with @Brixian59 who makes nastiness an artform and simply just does not understand how much damage he causes for is own political views
Gosh - unexpected compliments are the best! Thank you - and I always read your comments with interest and often appreciation. Long may they continue!
Can someone explain how a direct attack on UK territory, one that drastically alters the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies, is not something the Government thinks should be shared with the British people or Parliament.
The nation with the strongest interest in reopening the strait, and with the military power to be able to try, is of course China.
If the US were to wash its hands of the disaster it has precipitated, then that leaves a vacuum which they might fill. And the "nations don't have allies, just interests" crowd might just start thinking about making common cause with them.
The Chinese leadership is evil, but rational. You can deal with them. The US leadership is evil, and insane.
I don't think the Chinese or Iranian leadership are comparable to the US leadership in the evil stakes.
Trump is breaching boundaries and taboos he never should have in a Western country, which shocks us to the core, but his regime isn't totalitarian.
A treacherous friend is a greater evil than a visible enemy.
Can someone explain how a direct attack on UK territory, one that drastically alters the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies, is not something the Government thinks should be shared with the British people or Parliament.
Give credit to Iran here. Lobbing an IRBM at Diego Garcia is showing just how not demolished they are.
Trump now his two choices. The forever war. Or the everyone laughing at Trump forever capitulation.
Saw someone, somewhere, make the point that the humiliation of the US in this war shows that they would not be able to prevent China from conquering Taiwan (whether Taiwan would be able to is a separate question).
In this way Trump's humiliation over Iran in March 2026 mirrors Biden's humiliation over the fall of Kabul in summer 2021, which arguably convinced Putin the US wouldn't actively oppose an invasion of Ukraine (and in that he was right - Biden's response was to offer evacuation help to Zelensky, so Putin's misjudgement was of Zelensky and Ukraine, not Biden and the US).
I'm tentatively penciling in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan for just after Chinese New Year 2027. As a bonus the US will be bitterly divided over the outcome of the midterms, one way or another.
I cannot imagine a better window of opportunity for Xi.
Does any country other than China manufacture solar panels?
Xi would be learning precisely the wrong lesson. Ukraine and Iran both illustrate the folly of a country, no matter how powerful, attempting to win a war that for them is one of choice, but for the target is existential.
If China thinks the lesson from this is that Taiwan would be a walkover then it’s less strategically intelligent than we thought.
The thing is China is still, mostly, Xi. And Xi wants to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. And Xi is an old man in a hurry. And it's a very human failing to rationalise as possible, even likely, what you want to happen.
I think it's definitely a mistake to assume that the people involved will make optimal choices.
What this shows is that if Xi wants regime change in Taiwan it needs Chinese groundtroops which means Chinese body bags. US and Israeli strikes alone are not removing the Iranian regime.
Even then it is not guaranteed, Putin has sent groundtroops into Ukraine but still only captured about a quarter of the country for Russia
If modern warfare proves anything it is that if you’re the defending side, and you have no choice but to fight, you have some big advantages over the attacker. You don’t need to secure total victory, you just need to hurt the enemy until they stop.
By and large, defenders don’t just throw in the towel, for a quiet life. Being attacked tends to strengthen morale and resolve, rather than breaking it.
I don’t doubt that an invasion of Taiwan would result in appalling losses of men and equipment for China. Maybe they’d still win, but it would be an appalling waste.
One big difference with Taiwan is that, as an island, it would be easier for China to blockade and prevent any supplies of ammunition, components, energy, etc, from reaching Taiwan, making it a lot harder for Taiwan to sustain resistance than it has been for Ukraine.
Anyway, I'm not arguing that an invasion of Taiwan would be sensible or easy, only that the US failure in the war with Iran reduces the deterrence value of the US, making such an invasion a lot more likely, with all the consequences that would follow.
Give credit to Iran here. Lobbing an IRBM at Diego Garcia is showing just how not demolished they are.
Trump now his two choices. The forever war. Or the everyone laughing at Trump forever capitulation.
He has way more latitude than that. He can declare victory, withdraw US forces and pressure others to take the incoming to reopen the strait. Starmer and others will fold and do it before too long.
E2A: Trump only needs one of Starmer or Macron on board to get the other. Neither the UK nor France could bear the other getting the limelight and, who knows, it might all go brilliantly. I mean, it won't, but it might.
“I mean, it won't, but it might.”
I disagree. It’s bound to go brilliantly and it’s the best quickest option on the table.
Once the US leave the region and stop bombing and leave it to us, it’s easypeasy. We simply chat to the Iranians and do a deal with them.
The Iranians, or at least the mullahs, haven't forgiven us yet for our shady dealings at the time of their revolution. And for sitting on that money for the tanks for which they eventually freed Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.
All true. But once Trump stops and his armada sails away, Iran will be pretty keen to re-open the strait and stop bombing others too. Any discussion with them, despite our previous, will be like pushing against an open door I think.
I very much hope that you are right. But there's such a lot of previous, on both sides, that I think both sides will be using very ,long spoons. Initially,. at any rate. I'm not sure, either, how far Shia/Sunni hostility comes into the mix.
An interesting sign of the times. Ukraine will stop sending recruits abroad for military training because western instructors lack experience in modern combat.
It's more to do with the unsustainable amount of AWOLs they get in foreign locations. Hundreds a time went missing in Spain. They still wanted to be trained by NATO Instructors (mainly French) because they can't take Ukrainian SNCOs off the front line to do it, they just want it done in Ukraine so gopniks can't leg it.
Forgot to sat there is an interview on Noviny Live with Mark Francois lookalike Gen. Mezhevikin who is head of Doctrine and Training where he lays all this out. Basically foreign authorities will put no effort into looking for and apprehending the AWOL. It's quite amusing because he's a native Russian speaker who has to gasp and flounder his way through the interview in Ukrainian for reasons.
Are Russian and Ukrainian vaguely intelligible to speakers of either? Like someone with a strong Geordie accent speaking to someone with a strong Scouse accent for example? Edit to add, not just the accents but words and phrases peculiar to each area.
Linguistically it's about the same distance as Spanish to Portuguese. I lived in Kiev for six months and I never interacted with a Ukranian who could not understand spoken Russian perfectly because they all learned it at school if they were not native speakers. I have never heard anybody attempt to speak Ukrainian in Russia, except for comic effect as Zelenskiy occasionally used to do on Russian TV, so I can't really say the opposite is true.
However, the "Ukrainian" that all regime apparatchiks are expected to pretend to speak is the variant specific to the Cherkassy oblast with many Polish loan words and frankly ludicrous neoglisms. Some of them really struggle with it.
The nation with the strongest interest in reopening the strait, and with the military power to be able to try, is of course China.
If the US were to wash its hands of the disaster it has precipitated, then that leaves a vacuum which they might fill. And the "nations don't have allies, just interests" crowd might just start thinking about making common cause with them.
The Chinese leadership is evil, but rational. You can deal with them. The US leadership is evil, and insane.
That proves my point. What was completely unthinkable - China as a potential partner in place of the US - is becoming thinkable.
A pretty dismal state of affairs.
Carney's idea of a coalition of medium power democracies is a far more appealing one, but it's not something that seems to have much momentum.
I think it would be a massive mistake. We'd be in a massive crisis as soon as China decided to throw its military muscle around more forcefully over Taiwan or the East China Sea. It would be like jumping out of the frying pan into the active volcano.
I have told you before there are no stages of ultimate evil. Evil is evil. Trump and Carlson are equally reprehensible. Tucker's advantage is he at least knows his own name.
You may have said that before, but I respectfully disagree. There are stages of evil and some are more evil than others.
Trump is reprehensible, of that there is no doubt. Fucker Carlson is worse. Much worse.
The fact that Fucker has all his marbles and is still that bad is not an "advantage" for us, it is worse.
Its like the old adage that there are 4 types of leaders:
Great leaders are those that combine high competence with high character. Ineffective leaders are those that combine low competence with high character. Most British PMs lately probably fall into this category. Failed leaders combine low competence with low character. This is Trump
The most dangerous though are those who combine high competence with low character. To combine corruption with skill. To combine intelligence with a crooked character.
Fucker Carlson is the latter. He is dangerous. More dangerous than Trump.
An interesting sign of the times. Ukraine will stop sending recruits abroad for military training because western instructors lack experience in modern combat.
It's more to do with the unsustainable amount of AWOLs they get in foreign locations. Hundreds a time went missing in Spain. They still wanted to be trained by NATO Instructors (mainly French) because they can't take Ukrainian SNCOs off the front line to do it, they just want it done in Ukraine so gopniks can't leg it.
Forgot to sat there is an interview on Noviny Live with Mark Francois lookalike Gen. Mezhevikin who is head of Doctrine and Training where he lays all this out. Basically foreign authorities will put no effort into looking for and apprehending the AWOL. It's quite amusing because he's a native Russian speaker who has to gasp and flounder his way through the interview in Ukrainian for reasons.
Are Russian and Ukrainian vaguely intelligible to speakers of either? Like someone with a strong Geordie accent speaking to someone with a strong Scouse accent for example? Edit to add, not just the accents but words and phrases peculiar to each area.
Russian: Взаимопонятны ли русский и украинский языки носителям обоих языков? Например, как человек с ярко выраженным джордийским акцентом разговаривает с человеком с ярко выраженным ливерпульским акцентом? Дополнение: не только акценты, но и слова и фразы, характерные для каждого региона.
Vzaimoponyatny li russkiy i ukrainskiy yazyki nositelyam oboikh yazykov? Naprimer, kak chelovek s yarko vyrazhennym dzhordiyskim aktsentom razgovarivayet s chelovekom s yarko vyrazhennym liverpul'skim aktsentom? Dopolneniye: ne tol'ko aktsenty, no i slova i frazy, kharakternyye dlya kazhdogo regiona.
Ukranian: Чи є російська та українська мови неясно зрозумілими для носіїв будь-якої з них? Наприклад, коли хтось із сильним акцентом джорді розмовляє з кимось із сильним акцентом скауза? Додайте не лише акценти, а й слова та фрази, характерні для кожної області.
Chy ye rosiysʹka ta ukrayinsʹka movy neyasno zrozumilymy dlya nosiyiv budʹ-yakoyi z nykh? Napryklad, koly khtosʹ iz sylʹnym aktsentom dzhordi rozmovlyaye z kymosʹ iz sylʹnym aktsentom skauza? Dodayte ne lyshe aktsenty, a y slova ta frazy, kharakterni dlya kozhnoyi oblasti.
English: Are Russian and Ukrainian vaguely intelligible to speakers of either? Like someone with a strong Geordie accent speaking to someone with a strong Scouse accent for example? Edit to add, not just the accents but words and phrases peculiar to each area.
Short answer: further apart then you’d think they would be. Ukranian is actually closer to Polish, but using the Cyrillic alphabet.
Can someone explain how a direct attack on UK territory, one that drastically alters the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies, is not something the Government thinks should be shared with the British people or Parliament.
Can someone explain how a direct attack on UK territory, one that drastically alters the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies, is not something the Government thinks should be shared with the British people or Parliament.
Can someone explain how a direct attack on UK territory, one that drastically alters the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies, is not something the Government thinks should be shared with the British people or Parliament.
Because it doesn't drastically alter the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies.
There you go, Dan. Your wish, my command.
Diego Garcia is 4000km from Iran. Aside from it being an Iranian attack on UK territory, this means we now have the first direct evidence Iran has missiles capable of hitting most of Europe, including the UK
Turns out the attack on DG was a few days ago and Starmer couldnt be bothered to inform parliament or us.
Maybe for security/operational reasons they had to delay announcing it .
Seems unlikely. Missiles were fired at UK territory, there is nothing security or operational about that fact.
It's not like the Iranians don't know!
That’s the worry.
Who is actually in charge of what’s left of the missiles?
These were a pair of previously-unknown 4,000km rockets, how many more do we think they might have?
If there was to be a guess at the delay in the release of the information, it’s that the launch site would have lit up like a Christmas tree at satellite surveillance HQ, and it took 24-48 hours to obliterate the facility there.
Give credit to Iran here. Lobbing an IRBM at Diego Garcia is showing just how not demolished they are.
Trump now his two choices. The forever war. Or the everyone laughing at Trump forever capitulation.
Saw someone, somewhere, make the point that the humiliation of the US in this war shows that they would not be able to prevent China from conquering Taiwan (whether Taiwan would be able to is a separate question).
In this way Trump's humiliation over Iran in March 2026 mirrors Biden's humiliation over the fall of Kabul in summer 2021, which arguably convinced Putin the US wouldn't actively oppose an invasion of Ukraine (and in that he was right - Biden's response was to offer evacuation help to Zelensky, so Putin's misjudgement was of Zelensky and Ukraine, not Biden and the US).
I'm tentatively penciling in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan for just after Chinese New Year 2027. As a bonus the US will be bitterly divided over the outcome of the midterms, one way or another.
I cannot imagine a better window of opportunity for Xi.
Does any country other than China manufacture solar panels?
Xi would be learning precisely the wrong lesson. Ukraine and Iran both illustrate the folly of a country, no matter how powerful, attempting to win a war that for them is one of choice, but for the target is existential.
If China thinks the lesson from this is that Taiwan would be a walkover then it’s less strategically intelligent than we thought.
The thing is China is still, mostly, Xi. And Xi wants to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. And Xi is an old man in a hurry. And it's a very human failing to rationalise as possible, even likely, what you want to happen.
I think it's definitely a mistake to assume that the people involved will make optimal choices.
What this shows is that if Xi wants regime change in Taiwan it needs Chinese groundtroops which means Chinese body bags. US and Israeli strikes alone are not removing the Iranian regime.
Even then it is not guaranteed, Putin has sent groundtroops into Ukraine but still only captured about a quarter of the country for Russia
If modern warfare proves anything it is that if you’re the defending side, and you have no choice but to fight, you have some big advantages over the attacker. You don’t need to secure total victory, you just need to hurt the enemy until they stop.
TBF, you could make a reasonable case that was the lesson of the Battles of Verdun and the Somme.
And it was the lesson the French drew in building the Maginot Line...
I am not sure that is the lesson of those battles.
At Verdun the German plan was to take the fortress and then the French would exhaust themselves trying to retake what was more a prestige asset rather than a strategic one. In that drawn out battle it was mainly the French attacking and the Germans attriting them.
At the Somme the Geermans shifted from a fixed stronghold system of defence into a more dynamic mobile defence of lightly held forward trenches then counterattack
At Passchendale the British Imperial forces countered what they had struggled with at the Somme by moving to "bite and hold" rather than attempting a break through. They would take the forward German trenches then prepare for the counter attack and take defenders advantage.
In 1918 the Germans evolved the "Schosstruppen" approach of bypassing strongpoints and the Imperial forces moved to much more coordinated combined arms approaches with air, artillery, tanks and infantry closely co ordinated, thereby breaking the German Army in the battles of the 100 days, even breaking through the Hindenburg line fairly quickly.
The image of General Melchett is a powerful myth, but at vast cost both armies had figured out how to win battles.
We largely forgot these lessons by 1940 of course.
The last bit isn't true. After the failure of 1940 most British battles were essentially 1918 style battles. Surprise, hurricane bombardment, even creeping barrages. Monty basically re ran the hundred days.
Yes, Monty's successful battles (El Alamein, D day) were bassically 1918 revisited. When he tried something different like Market Garden it was a major defeat.
What we failed to do in the interwar period was to do what the Germans realised. Schosstruppen plus careful combined arms integration was how the Germans rampaged across europe in 39-41. They did not have superior tanks or aircraft in either quality or numbers, but did have the winning formula for restoring war of manouvre.
Patton was the only commander who really got the formula on the western front, with several Soviet generals getting it too. Bagration was perhaps the finest example there.
I think the Soviets success was also down to a complete disregard for the lives of the soviet troops. Market Garden was a defeat, by only just. Allied ability to deliver ran behind the imagination. If all the troops had been dropped at Arnhem on day 1 it would have been a success.
Yes Montgomery made mistakes certainly but his tactical concept of Market Garden was entirely correct and he can hardly be blamed for the numerous failures of others in the detailed planning of the operation. Such as planning for drops no less than 7 miles from the key Arnhem bridge, an initial lack of urgency in pushing those forces into Arnhem, ignoring the railway bridge, far too long a timescale for drops, prioritising dropping HQ troops over combat troops, failure to up the quota of anti tank weapons because prior intelligence was ignored, misuse of the Polish paratroops etc etc plus a big slice of bad luck (fog over airfields in England.) Those mistakes were all attributable to his subordinates such as Browning and Urquhart and had even a couple of them not been made Market Garden would have succeeded. Montgomery had every right to expect that it would.
Montgomery's strategic concept of concentrating allied resources for a single thrust to the Ruhr rather than dispersing effort across a 400 mile front is also now generally accepted as having been correct and would probably have got the allies over the Rhine in 1944 regardless of Market Garden. That strategy was frustrated by Eisenhower who chose to appease Bradley and Patton.
So we were let down by the Yanks let again. Nearly 3 years late when they finally entered WW1. Over 2 years late before entering WW2 (and even after Pearl Harbour they might well not have declared war on Germany had Hitler not declared war on them first.) And then cocking up at the end of WW2 to prolong its length in 1944 and then leaving the Russians to take Berlin in 1945 against Churchill's urging. The present charlatan in the White House can throw all the insults he likes but we know who really let down who.
An interesting sign of the times. Ukraine will stop sending recruits abroad for military training because western instructors lack experience in modern combat.
It's more to do with the unsustainable amount of AWOLs they get in foreign locations. Hundreds a time went missing in Spain. They still wanted to be trained by NATO Instructors (mainly French) because they can't take Ukrainian SNCOs off the front line to do it, they just want it done in Ukraine so gopniks can't leg it.
Forgot to sat there is an interview on Noviny Live with Mark Francois lookalike Gen. Mezhevikin who is head of Doctrine and Training where he lays all this out. Basically foreign authorities will put no effort into looking for and apprehending the AWOL. It's quite amusing because he's a native Russian speaker who has to gasp and flounder his way through the interview in Ukrainian for reasons.
One of the many ironies of Putins war on Ukraine is the supposed need to protect Russian speakers, but those Russian speakers (including Zelinsky himself) are now switching to Ukranian as a matter of national identity.
Have you noticed how @TuckerCarlson times his podcast guests according to President Trump’s foreign policy actions?
When Trump was trying to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war, Tucker promoted Russia and platformed Dugin.
When Trump was trying to get the hostages in Gaza released, Tucker promoted Qatar, which hosts Hamas.
When Trump wanted to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Tucker had the President of Iran on his show and let him lie through his teeth in defense of the Iranian regime.
When President Trump captured Maduro, Tucker opposed it on his show and accused President Trump of spreading “globohomo”.
When President Trump ordered airstrikes on ISIS in Nigeria when they were genociding Christians, Tucker had a lobbyist for Nigeria on his show who said the persecution of Christians in Nigeria is a hoax. He never disclosed the fact that his guest was a lobbyist…
Now that President Trump is set to travel to China to meet with Xi JinPing, Tucker is interviewing a mouthpiece for the CCP who just said the US needs to learn how to “share power with China”.
How much more evidence do you need to see @TuckerCarlson is a subversive foreign agent and a traitor to America who is working to undermine President Trump’s foreign policy and usher in anti-American multi-polarity, which is fundamentally driven by a Communist-Islamic alliance to take down the West?
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz
Told @NBCNews that the U.S. is funding a war against itself. What we are seeing is really a flawed campaign, not in terms of operational size, but from the strategic preparation for the campaign itself.
The oil price is becoming much more important than eliminating this regime in Iran.
Everybody knows that as long as Iran is controlling the straits, nothing will change in terms of the ability to take out the oil. You cannot beat geography.
Have you noticed how @TuckerCarlson times his podcast guests according to President Trump’s foreign policy actions?
When Trump was trying to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war, Tucker promoted Russia and platformed Dugin.
When Trump was trying to get the hostages in Gaza released, Tucker promoted Qatar, which hosts Hamas.
When Trump wanted to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Tucker had the President of Iran on his show and let him lie through his teeth in defense of the Iranian regime.
When President Trump captured Maduro, Tucker opposed it on his show and accused President Trump of spreading “globohomo”.
When President Trump ordered airstrikes on ISIS in Nigeria when they were genociding Christians, Tucker had a lobbyist for Nigeria on his show who said the persecution of Christians in Nigeria is a hoax. He never disclosed the fact that his guest was a lobbyist…
Now that President Trump is set to travel to China to meet with Xi JinPing, Tucker is interviewing a mouthpiece for the CCP who just said the US needs to learn how to “share power with China”.
How much more evidence do you need to see @TuckerCarlson is a subversive foreign agent and a traitor to America who is working to undermine President Trump’s foreign policy and usher in anti-American multi-polarity, which is fundamentally driven by a Communist-Islamic alliance to take down the West?
Not sure I want to defend Carlson but that is easily explained as journalist interviews people who are relevant to the headlines and controversial.
And if we are looking for traitors to America, lets start with Trump himself.
The nation with the strongest interest in reopening the strait, and with the military power to be able to try, is of course China.
If the US were to wash its hands of the disaster it has precipitated, then that leaves a vacuum which they might fill. And the "nations don't have allies, just interests" crowd might just start thinking about making common cause with them.
The Chinese leadership is evil, but rational. You can deal with them. The US leadership is evil, and insane.
I don't think the Chinese or Iranian leadership are comparable to the US leadership in the evil stakes.
Trump is breaching boundaries and taboos he never should have in a Western country, which shocks us to the core, but his regime isn't totalitarian.
Of course (for now, anyway). But if you look at foreign policy, from the point of view of (say) a Gulf state, China might start to seem a more reliable partner.
That is a very dangerous dynamic for the western democracies.
Give credit to Iran here. Lobbing an IRBM at Diego Garcia is showing just how not demolished they are.
Trump now his two choices. The forever war. Or the everyone laughing at Trump forever capitulation.
Saw someone, somewhere, make the point that the humiliation of the US in this war shows that they would not be able to prevent China from conquering Taiwan (whether Taiwan would be able to is a separate question).
In this way Trump's humiliation over Iran in March 2026 mirrors Biden's humiliation over the fall of Kabul in summer 2021, which arguably convinced Putin the US wouldn't actively oppose an invasion of Ukraine (and in that he was right - Biden's response was to offer evacuation help to Zelensky, so Putin's misjudgement was of Zelensky and Ukraine, not Biden and the US).
I'm tentatively penciling in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan for just after Chinese New Year 2027. As a bonus the US will be bitterly divided over the outcome of the midterms, one way or another.
I cannot imagine a better window of opportunity for Xi.
Does any country other than China manufacture solar panels?
Xi would be learning precisely the wrong lesson. Ukraine and Iran both illustrate the folly of a country, no matter how powerful, attempting to win a war that for them is one of choice, but for the target is existential.
If China thinks the lesson from this is that Taiwan would be a walkover then it’s less strategically intelligent than we thought.
The thing is China is still, mostly, Xi. And Xi wants to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. And Xi is an old man in a hurry. And it's a very human failing to rationalise as possible, even likely, what you want to happen.
I think it's definitely a mistake to assume that the people involved will make optimal choices.
What this shows is that if Xi wants regime change in Taiwan it needs Chinese groundtroops which means Chinese body bags. US and Israeli strikes alone are not removing the Iranian regime.
Even then it is not guaranteed, Putin has sent groundtroops into Ukraine but still only captured about a quarter of the country for Russia
If modern warfare proves anything it is that if you’re the defending side, and you have no choice but to fight, you have some big advantages over the attacker. You don’t need to secure total victory, you just need to hurt the enemy until they stop.
TBF, you could make a reasonable case that was the lesson of the Battles of Verdun and the Somme.
And it was the lesson the French drew in building the Maginot Line...
I am not sure that is the lesson of those battles.
At Verdun the German plan was to take the fortress and then the French would exhaust themselves trying to retake what was more a prestige asset rather than a strategic one. In that drawn out battle it was mainly the French attacking and the Germans attriting them.
At the Somme the Geermans shifted from a fixed stronghold system of defence into a more dynamic mobile defence of lightly held forward trenches then counterattack
At Passchendale the British Imperial forces countered what they had struggled with at the Somme by moving to "bite and hold" rather than attempting a break through. They would take the forward German trenches then prepare for the counter attack and take defenders advantage.
In 1918 the Germans evolved the "Schosstruppen" approach of bypassing strongpoints and the Imperial forces moved to much more coordinated combined arms approaches with air, artillery, tanks and infantry closely co ordinated, thereby breaking the German Army in the battles of the 100 days, even breaking through the Hindenburg line fairly quickly.
The image of General Melchett is a powerful myth, but at vast cost both armies had figured out how to win battles.
We largely forgot these lessons by 1940 of course.
The last bit isn't true. After the failure of 1940 most British battles were essentially 1918 style battles. Surprise, hurricane bombardment, even creeping barrages. Monty basically re ran the hundred days.
Yes, Monty's successful battles (El Alamein, D day) were bassically 1918 revisited. When he tried something different like Market Garden it was a major defeat.
What we failed to do in the interwar period was to do what the Germans realised. Schosstruppen plus careful combined arms integration was how the Germans rampaged across europe in 39-41. They did not have superior tanks or aircraft in either quality or numbers, but did have the winning formula for restoring war of manouvre.
Patton was the only commander who really got the formula on the western front, with several Soviet generals getting it too. Bagration was perhaps the finest example there.
I think the Soviets success was also down to a complete disregard for the lives of the soviet troops. Market Garden was a defeat, by only just. Allied ability to deliver ran behind the imagination. If all the troops had been dropped at Arnhem on day 1 it would have been a success.
Yes Montgomery made mistakes certainly but his tactical concept of Market Garden was entirely correct and he can hardly be blamed for the numerous failures of others in the detailed planning of the operation. Such as planning for drops no less than 7 miles from the key Arnhem bridge, an initial lack of urgency in pushing those forces into Arnhem, ignoring the railway bridge, far too long a timescale for drops, prioritising dropping HQ troops over combat troops, failure to up the quota of anti tank weapons because prior intelligence was ignored, misuse of the Polish paratroops etc etc plus a big slice of bad luck (fog over airfields in England.) Those mistakes were all attributable to his subordinates such as Browning and Urquhart and had even a couple of them not been made Market Garden would have succeeded. Montgomery had every right to expect that it would.
Montgomery's strategic concept of concentrating allied resources for a single thrust to the Ruhr rather than dispersing effort across a 400 mile front is also now generally accepted as having been correct and would probably have got the allies over the Rhine in 1944 regardless of Market Garden. That strategy was frustrated by Eisenhower who chose to appease Bradley and Patton.
So we were let down by the Yanks let again. Nearly 3 years late when they finally entered WW1. Over 2 years late before entering WW2 (and even after Pearl Harbour they might well not have declared war on Germany had Hitler not declared war on them first.) And then cocking up at the end of WW2 to prolong its length in 1944 and then leaving the Russians to take Berlin in 1945 against Churchill's urging. The present charlatan in the White House can throw all the insults he likes but we know who really let down who.
No, Market Garden was misconceived from the beginning, and Montgomery's supposed meticulous planning failed.
And I wouldn't disparage the US contribution. The US airborne divisions took their bridges at Eindhoven and Nijmegen successfully. We didn't capture our bridge.
Meanwhile, in genuinely good news, the UK is currently running at 12 GW solar generation.
OK, it's midday on a sunshine day, but it's only March, and the UK record (last July) is only 14 GW. Someone must be doing something right.
Unfortunately...
China produces a bit more than 6/7ths of the worlds solar panels. The solar revolution in energy supply comes to a crashing halt if China invades Taiwan and we decide we don't like it.
The nation with the strongest interest in reopening the strait, and with the military power to be able to try, is of course China.
If the US were to wash its hands of the disaster it has precipitated, then that leaves a vacuum which they might fill. And the "nations don't have allies, just interests" crowd might just start thinking about making common cause with them.
The Chinese leadership is evil, but rational. You can deal with them. The US leadership is evil, and insane.
I don't think the Chinese or Iranian leadership are comparable to the US leadership in the evil stakes.
Trump is breaching boundaries and taboos he never should have in a Western country, which shocks us to the core, but his regime isn't totalitarian.
Of course (for now, anyway). But if you look at foreign policy, from the point of view of (say) a Gulf state, China might start to seem a more reliable partner.
That is a very dangerous dynamic for the western democracies.
The nation with the strongest interest in reopening the strait, and with the military power to be able to try, is of course China.
If the US were to wash its hands of the disaster it has precipitated, then that leaves a vacuum which they might fill. And the "nations don't have allies, just interests" crowd might just start thinking about making common cause with them.
The Chinese leadership is evil, but rational. You can deal with them. The US leadership is evil, and insane.
That proves my point. What was completely unthinkable - China as a potential partner in place of the US - is becoming thinkable.
A pretty dismal state of affairs.
Carney's idea of a coalition of medium power democracies is a far more appealing one, but it's not something that seems to have much momentum.
I think it would be a massive mistake. We'd be in a massive crisis as soon as China decided to throw its military muscle around more forcefully over Taiwan or the East China Sea. It would be like jumping out of the frying pan into the active volcano.
Quite likely; I'm not advocating it for a moment.
But you can't ignore the change in perceptions of China versus the US. There are not a few countries where the China option is starting to become at least a possibility, while before it was not.
Can someone explain how a direct attack on UK territory, one that drastically alters the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies, is not something the Government thinks should be shared with the British people or Parliament.
Because it doesn't drastically alter the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies.
There you go, Dan. Your wish, my command.
Diego Garcia is 4000km from Iran. Aside from it being an Iranian attack on UK territory, this means we now have the first direct evidence Iran has missiles capable of hitting most of Europe, including the UK
So what. They're thrashing about in response to being bombed to smithereens by the US and Israel. Once this conflagration is over they'll still be what they were beforehand, an enemy of (in descending order) Israel, the US, the UK, the West, but with less capability. Firing a couple of missiles at DG (and missing) in this context is a nothingburger event in terms of the going forward strategic threat to the UK of Iran. I'd say the bigger delta is the higher risk of terrorist violence against us in coming years.
An interesting sign of the times. Ukraine will stop sending recruits abroad for military training because western instructors lack experience in modern combat.
It's more to do with the unsustainable amount of AWOLs they get in foreign locations. Hundreds a time went missing in Spain. They still wanted to be trained by NATO Instructors (mainly French) because they can't take Ukrainian SNCOs off the front line to do it, they just want it done in Ukraine so gopniks can't leg it.
Forgot to sat there is an interview on Noviny Live with Mark Francois lookalike Gen. Mezhevikin who is head of Doctrine and Training where he lays all this out. Basically foreign authorities will put no effort into looking for and apprehending the AWOL. It's quite amusing because he's a native Russian speaker who has to gasp and flounder his way through the interview in Ukrainian for reasons.
One of the many ironies of Putins war on Ukraine is the supposed need to protect Russian speakers, but those Russian speakers (including Zelinsky himself) are now switching to Ukranian as a matter of national identity.
Very true, and it’s not just the politicians speaking Ukranian in public, it’s almost the whole country switched languages overnight. Friends will use whatever they’re most comfortable with when in private, but the majority of public interactions with strangers at least start in Ukranian.
It was much easier for me being there, none of the awkwardness as I’d be asking things in writing on my phone, or they’d speak English if they could. Most of the 20-somethings will have studied some English at school, even if outside Kyiv and Lviv they were surprised a little to come across a Limey.
Turns out the attack on DG was a few days ago and Starmer couldnt be bothered to inform parliament or us.
Maybe for security/operational reasons they had to delay announcing it .
Seems unlikely. Missiles were fired at UK territory, there is nothing security or operational about that fact.
It's not like the Iranians don't know!
That’s the worry.
Who is actually in charge of what’s left of the missiles?
These were a pair of previously-unknown 4,000km rockets, how many more do we think they might have?
If there was to be a guess at the delay in the release of the information, it’s that the launch site would have lit up like a Christmas tree at satellite surveillance HQ, and it took 24-48 hours to obliterate the facility there.
And I would have no problem with Fairford being used to facilitate that obliteration.
Have you noticed how @TuckerCarlson times his podcast guests according to President Trump’s foreign policy actions?
When Trump was trying to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war, Tucker promoted Russia and platformed Dugin.
When Trump was trying to get the hostages in Gaza released, Tucker promoted Qatar, which hosts Hamas.
When Trump wanted to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Tucker had the President of Iran on his show and let him lie through his teeth in defense of the Iranian regime.
When President Trump captured Maduro, Tucker opposed it on his show and accused President Trump of spreading “globohomo”.
When President Trump ordered airstrikes on ISIS in Nigeria when they were genociding Christians, Tucker had a lobbyist for Nigeria on his show who said the persecution of Christians in Nigeria is a hoax. He never disclosed the fact that his guest was a lobbyist…
Now that President Trump is set to travel to China to meet with Xi JinPing, Tucker is interviewing a mouthpiece for the CCP who just said the US needs to learn how to “share power with China”.
How much more evidence do you need to see @TuckerCarlson is a subversive foreign agent and a traitor to America who is working to undermine President Trump’s foreign policy and usher in anti-American multi-polarity, which is fundamentally driven by a Communist-Islamic alliance to take down the West?
Not sure I want to defend Carlson but that is easily explained as journalist interviews people who are relevant to the headlines and controversial.
And if we are looking for traitors to America, lets start with Trump himself.
I'm not sure that Tucker Carlson ever interviews as opposed to giving air time to people he agrees with.
Can someone explain how a direct attack on UK territory, one that drastically alters the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies, is not something the Government thinks should be shared with the British people or Parliament.
Because it doesn't drastically alter the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies.
There you go, Dan. Your wish, my command.
Diego Garcia is 4000km from Iran. Aside from it being an Iranian attack on UK territory, this means we now have the first direct evidence Iran has missiles capable of hitting most of Europe, including the UK
So what. They're thrashing about in response to being bombed to smithereens by the US and Israel. Once this conflagration is over they'll still be what they were beforehand, an enemy of (in descending order) Israel, the US, the UK, the West, but with less capability. Firing a couple of missiles at DG (and missing) in this context is a nothingburger event in terms of the going forward strategic threat to the UK of Iran. I'd say the bigger delta is the higher risk of terrorist violence against us in coming years.
And when they dont miss? Or fire them at Fairford?
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz
Told @NBCNews that the U.S. is funding a war against itself. What we are seeing is really a flawed campaign, not in terms of operational size, but from the strategic preparation for the campaign itself.
The oil price is becoming much more important than eliminating this regime in Iran.
Everybody knows that as long as Iran is controlling the straits, nothing will change in terms of the ability to take out the oil. You cannot beat geography.
It seems everyone knows it bar the President, and the people around him have earned their positions and trust by parroting what he wants to hear, not reality.
Have you noticed how @TuckerCarlson times his podcast guests according to President Trump’s foreign policy actions?
When Trump was trying to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war, Tucker promoted Russia and platformed Dugin.
When Trump was trying to get the hostages in Gaza released, Tucker promoted Qatar, which hosts Hamas.
When Trump wanted to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Tucker had the President of Iran on his show and let him lie through his teeth in defense of the Iranian regime.
When President Trump captured Maduro, Tucker opposed it on his show and accused President Trump of spreading “globohomo”.
When President Trump ordered airstrikes on ISIS in Nigeria when they were genociding Christians, Tucker had a lobbyist for Nigeria on his show who said the persecution of Christians in Nigeria is a hoax. He never disclosed the fact that his guest was a lobbyist…
Now that President Trump is set to travel to China to meet with Xi JinPing, Tucker is interviewing a mouthpiece for the CCP who just said the US needs to learn how to “share power with China”.
How much more evidence do you need to see @TuckerCarlson is a subversive foreign agent and a traitor to America who is working to undermine President Trump’s foreign policy and usher in anti-American multi-polarity, which is fundamentally driven by a Communist-Islamic alliance to take down the West?
Not sure I want to defend Carlson but that is easily explained as journalist interviews people who are relevant to the headlines and controversial.
And if we are looking for traitors to America, lets start with Trump himself.
Loomer’s point is that he’s dropped the journalism, and is now giving soft-soap interviews with no pushback to senior foreign opponents of Amercian policy.
He’s almost certainly in the pay of Qatar, when Qatar was funding the mullahs and Hamas, and is probably in the pay of Russia too. If he wades into politics directly then this will all become more obvious.
He’s also potentially implicated in the resignation of Joe Kent. Kent is under investigation for passing classified materials to *someone*…
As for Trump himself, he’s still mostly doing what those who voted for him wanted. The test will be a rise in petrol prices, because if they’re higher as the mid-terms approach than they were at the 2020 election, the GOP will be in trouble.
Can someone explain how a direct attack on UK territory, one that drastically alters the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies, is not something the Government thinks should be shared with the British people or Parliament.
Because it doesn't drastically alter the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies.
There you go, Dan. Your wish, my command.
Diego Garcia is 4000km from Iran. Aside from it being an Iranian attack on UK territory, this means we now have the first direct evidence Iran has missiles capable of hitting most of Europe, including the UK
So what. They're thrashing about in response to being bombed to smithereens by the US and Israel. Once this conflagration is over they'll still be what they were beforehand, an enemy of (in descending order) Israel, the US, the UK, the West, but with less capability. Firing a couple of missiles at DG (and missing) in this context is a nothingburger event in terms of the going forward strategic threat to the UK of Iran. I'd say the bigger delta is the higher risk of terrorist violence against us in coming years.
The fact that Iran has ballistic missiles and is prepared to use them is neither new, nor a nothingburger. It is also why it must never be permitted to obtain nuclear weapons and why this is an entirely just war.
The nation with the strongest interest in reopening the strait, and with the military power to be able to try, is of course China.
If the US were to wash its hands of the disaster it has precipitated, then that leaves a vacuum which they might fill. And the "nations don't have allies, just interests" crowd might just start thinking about making common cause with them.
The Chinese leadership is evil, but rational. You can deal with them. The US leadership is evil, and insane.
I don't think the Chinese or Iranian leadership are comparable to the US leadership in the evil stakes.
Trump is breaching boundaries and taboos he never should have in a Western country, which shocks us to the core, but his regime isn't totalitarian.
We believed that the community of interests based on the Atlantic Charter was an alliance of principles, and that our common values mattered. Trump has rejected those common values in favour of a narrow, purely American self interest. From the European point of view, if you had a choice of two offers, one from the USA and one from China, our community of values would have always chosen America. Now, given the United States refuses to accept that community, the alliance is effectively over. Worse, many of the decisions that Trump has taken have not only been taken with no reference to the NATO alliance, several of them have in fact been directly hostile to the interests of the Europeans. In fact Trump has made comments, such as his wish to destroy the Lloyds of London insurance market that are directly contrary to our own national interests. His insults to our PM are simply not acceptable in any forum, while his despicable hostility to Ukraine and his pro Moscow, pro Orban stance is a direct challenge to the interests of the EU.
The abject incompetence of the attack on Iran gives us a chance to haul in the USA in the short term but if we fail to put some restraint on Trump, then the USA not only ceases to be any kind of ally, but becomes instead a direct strategic competitor. Under such circumstances, we start to make deals that no longer reference a community of interests which no longer holds, but instead we will start to aim to do deals that weaken the American threat. In fact, whatever happens in Iran now, the Europeans have no choice- we can no longer rely on American weapons or political support. We will need to rearm and face the challenge not just of China, but the USA too and that is the irrevocable change that Trump's treachery has caused. When Putin goes, there will be a scramble to get Russia onside- and while that could still be a while off, we already see a conflict of interests- the US wants to keep Russia strong enough to challenge China, even if Putinism is still in the saddle, Europe could only work with Russia after Putin and his system have gone.
Trump will be remembered with horror, but his poisonous legacy will probably remain.
Incidentally, re the Trump-Mandelson-Epstein connection: two of the children accusing Trump of abuse in the files have boys names. The full files are, of course, not yet released, but the accusations against Trump in the materials that have been released show a man of almost limitless depravity, especially since it appears that several of the victims seem to have met mysterious deaths.
Give credit to Iran here. Lobbing an IRBM at Diego Garcia is showing just how not demolished they are.
Trump now his two choices. The forever war. Or the everyone laughing at Trump forever capitulation.
Saw someone, somewhere, make the point that the humiliation of the US in this war shows that they would not be able to prevent China from conquering Taiwan (whether Taiwan would be able to is a separate question).
In this way Trump's humiliation over Iran in March 2026 mirrors Biden's humiliation over the fall of Kabul in summer 2021, which arguably convinced Putin the US wouldn't actively oppose an invasion of Ukraine (and in that he was right - Biden's response was to offer evacuation help to Zelensky, so Putin's misjudgement was of Zelensky and Ukraine, not Biden and the US).
I'm tentatively penciling in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan for just after Chinese New Year 2027. As a bonus the US will be bitterly divided over the outcome of the midterms, one way or another.
I cannot imagine a better window of opportunity for Xi.
Does any country other than China manufacture solar panels?
Xi would be learning precisely the wrong lesson. Ukraine and Iran both illustrate the folly of a country, no matter how powerful, attempting to win a war that for them is one of choice, but for the target is existential.
If China thinks the lesson from this is that Taiwan would be a walkover then it’s less strategically intelligent than we thought.
The thing is China is still, mostly, Xi. And Xi wants to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. And Xi is an old man in a hurry. And it's a very human failing to rationalise as possible, even likely, what you want to happen.
I think it's definitely a mistake to assume that the people involved will make optimal choices.
What this shows is that if Xi wants regime change in Taiwan it needs Chinese groundtroops which means Chinese body bags. US and Israeli strikes alone are not removing the Iranian regime.
Even then it is not guaranteed, Putin has sent groundtroops into Ukraine but still only captured about a quarter of the country for Russia
If modern warfare proves anything it is that if you’re the defending side, and you have no choice but to fight, you have some big advantages over the attacker. You don’t need to secure total victory, you just need to hurt the enemy until they stop.
TBF, you could make a reasonable case that was the lesson of the Battles of Verdun and the Somme.
And it was the lesson the French drew in building the Maginot Line...
The balance shifts back and forth over time, between attack and defence, as it does between ranged weapons and armour. The attacker needs to keep mobile, whereas the defender needs to keep him bogged down, trying to take fixed positions.
The Great Man school of history may be discredited, but there is something to be said for the Incompetent Man school. There are occasions where you get someone in command who would be better suited cleaning latrines, and who causes utter catastrophe.
Maurice Gamelin, the man who thought that the radio was evil, was one such.
As was Wee Jock Poo Plong McPlop, who cleaned the latrines in Aberdeen.
Can someone explain how a direct attack on UK territory, one that drastically alters the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies, is not something the Government thinks should be shared with the British people or Parliament.
Because it doesn't drastically alter the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies.
There you go, Dan. Your wish, my command.
Indeed, Iran was already a major tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies even before they attacked our territory.
Now they have merely proved the fact by attacking us directly.
We should be fully engaged in war to enact regime change. Glad you finally agree.
If we delete "major" in para 1, replace "us directly" with "the US base in Mauritius in response to US aggression" at the end of para2, and put a "not" after the "should" in para3, then yes I do agree.
If you tether yourself to an incontinent donkey you're going to get showered. To the great British public Starmer has joinied Trumps madcap army.. The fact that he's been assigned the job of cleaning the toilets just makes us look worse.
Would Carney or Macron have volunteered?
You are facing down an economic event of Biblical proportions thanks to Trump and Bibi's ghost. I can't see that doing nothing to defend access to the straits is an option. How to strategize that without loss of military personnel is quite the conundrum.
Trump wants to stop and declare victory. Iran wants him to stop so they can declare victory. So I see a Stop coming soon. Certainly hope so. After that, who knows, probably a lasting mess, but I'm keen to reach that stage. Having no plan didn't stop him starting the war and by the same token it shouldn't stop him stopping it. Going to war with no plan and then not stopping until you do have a plan is a recipe for ongoing mayhem. It's madness. Esp since it becomes harder to plan things once conflict has commenced. So c'mon Donald, turn a bug into a feature and just stop 'obliterating' Iran and move on to Cuba or more pretend Ukraine talks or fixing the midterms or whatever. Just be you.
There's no point in anyone providing plans for Trump as he has neither the patience or fixity of purpose to see any through.
It all makes sense if you think of his Presidency like a reality TV show.
Have you noticed how @TuckerCarlson times his podcast guests according to President Trump’s foreign policy actions?
When Trump was trying to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war, Tucker promoted Russia and platformed Dugin.
When Trump was trying to get the hostages in Gaza released, Tucker promoted Qatar, which hosts Hamas.
When Trump wanted to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Tucker had the President of Iran on his show and let him lie through his teeth in defense of the Iranian regime.
When President Trump captured Maduro, Tucker opposed it on his show and accused President Trump of spreading “globohomo”.
When President Trump ordered airstrikes on ISIS in Nigeria when they were genociding Christians, Tucker had a lobbyist for Nigeria on his show who said the persecution of Christians in Nigeria is a hoax. He never disclosed the fact that his guest was a lobbyist…
Now that President Trump is set to travel to China to meet with Xi JinPing, Tucker is interviewing a mouthpiece for the CCP who just said the US needs to learn how to “share power with China”.
How much more evidence do you need to see @TuckerCarlson is a subversive foreign agent and a traitor to America who is working to undermine President Trump’s foreign policy and usher in anti-American multi-polarity, which is fundamentally driven by a Communist-Islamic alliance to take down the West?
Not sure I want to defend Carlson but that is easily explained as journalist interviews people who are relevant to the headlines and controversial.
And if we are looking for traitors to America, lets start with Trump himself.
Loomer’s point is that he’s dropped the journalism, and is now giving soft-soap interviews with no pushback to senior foreign opponents of Amercian policy.
He’s almost certainly in the pay of Qatar, when Qatar was funding the mullahs and Hamas, and is probably in the pay of Russia too. If he wades into politics directly then this will all become more obvious.
He’s also potentially implicated in the resignation of Joe Kent. Kent is under investigation for passing classified materials to *someone*…
As for Trump himself, he’s still mostly doing what those who voted for him wanted. The test will be a rise in petrol prices, because if they’re higher as the mid-terms approach than they were at the 2020 election, the GOP will be in trouble.
No idea where to start with all that. Obviously live on different planets. Carlson has never been a journalist, he is a promoter of political personalities for $$$$, as he was in creating Trump as a political figure in the first place. Trump promised no more wars, especially in the middle east, and to bring down the cost of living. That is not mostly what he is doing.
Meanwhile, in genuinely good news, the UK is currently running at 12 GW solar generation.
OK, it's midday on a sunshine day, but it's only March, and the UK record (last July) is only 14 GW. Someone must be doing something right.
I ordered 13kw of panels and a 6kwh battery yesterday. Finally found a way we can install solar without conservation area planning restrictions. Next stop a hybrid retrofit heat pump - great option for old leaky houses as the ASHP works most of the time but gas boiler cuts in when it’s too cold.
And to add to the life admin I also registered the vineyard for VAT this week and have connected up Xero for MTD. Which seems…absolutely fine?
Meanwhile, in genuinely good news, the UK is currently running at 12 GW solar generation.
OK, it's midday on a sunshine day, but it's only March, and the UK record (last July) is only 14 GW. Someone must be doing something right.
Unfortunately...
China produces a bit more than 6/7ths of the worlds solar panels. The solar revolution in energy supply comes to a crashing halt if China invades Taiwan and we decide we don't like it.
Something of a problem, though there's nothing intrinsically difficult about making a solar panel- other countries have just decided not to bother.
More importantly, panels are a one-off sale. Once you have them, they carry on generating for decades. Hydrocarbons are a repeat purchase, which is why producers have consumers over a barrel, so to speak.
Meanwhile, in genuinely good news, the UK is currently running at 12 GW solar generation.
OK, it's midday on a sunshine day, but it's only March, and the UK record (last July) is only 14 GW. Someone must be doing something right.
Unfortunately...
China produces a bit more than 6/7ths of the worlds solar panels. The solar revolution in energy supply comes to a crashing halt if China invades Taiwan and we decide we don't like it.
Something of a problem, though there's nothing intrinsically difficult about making a solar panel- other countries have just decided not to bother.
More importantly, panels are a one-off sale. Once you have them, they carry on generating for decades. Hydrocarbons are a repeat purchase, which is why producers have consumers over a barrel, so to speak.
One Chinaman against another
Feck all to do with us as is HK now.
Let them sort it out, solar panels are more important to UK than a spat that's nothing to do with us.
We are not a global player
Sooner we stop trying to be, the better off and safer we will all be.
Meanwhile, in genuinely good news, the UK is currently running at 12 GW solar generation.
OK, it's midday on a sunshine day, but it's only March, and the UK record (last July) is only 14 GW. Someone must be doing something right.
I ordered 13kw of panels and a 6kwh battery yesterday. Finally found a way we can install solar without conservation area planning restrictions. Next stop a hybrid retrofit heat pump - great option for old leaky houses as the ASHP works most of the time but gas boiler cuts in when it’s too cold.
And to add to the life admin I also registered the vineyard for VAT this week and have connected up Xero for MTD. Which seems…absolutely fine?
Well done Eddie boy.
Shut the doom merchant right wing oil and gas lobby up.
Can someone explain how a direct attack on UK territory, one that drastically alters the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies, is not something the Government thinks should be shared with the British people or Parliament.
Because it doesn't drastically alter the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies.
There you go, Dan. Your wish, my command.
Diego Garcia is 4000km from Iran. Aside from it being an Iranian attack on UK territory, this means we now have the first direct evidence Iran has missiles capable of hitting most of Europe, including the UK
So what. They're thrashing about in response to being bombed to smithereens by the US and Israel. Once this conflagration is over they'll still be what they were beforehand, an enemy of (in descending order) Israel, the US, the UK, the West, but with less capability. Firing a couple of missiles at DG (and missing) in this context is a nothingburger event in terms of the going forward strategic threat to the UK of Iran. I'd say the bigger delta is the higher risk of terrorist violence against us in coming years.
Ffs
If Iran smashes Chagos to rubble destroys the air strip what impact will it have on the UK
Fuck all.
One less bit of useless colonial moneypit rock to worry about
I amazed, but I suppose I shouldn't be, at how many people have eagerly lapped up this Diego Garcia nonsense like an XL Bully with a bowl full of Guinness. WMD all over again. The old tunes are the best.
“If I have to be on one side of this MAGA thing, either Trump or Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens and Nick Fuentes, I’ll be with Trump on this one because that’s the other side of MAGA.”
Can someone explain how a direct attack on UK territory, one that drastically alters the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies, is not something the Government thinks should be shared with the British people or Parliament.
Because it doesn't drastically alter the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies.
There you go, Dan. Your wish, my command.
Diego Garcia is 4000km from Iran. Aside from it being an Iranian attack on UK territory, this means we now have the first direct evidence Iran has missiles capable of hitting most of Europe, including the UK
So what. They're thrashing about in response to being bombed to smithereens by the US and Israel. Once this conflagration is over they'll still be what they were beforehand, an enemy of (in descending order) Israel, the US, the UK, the West, but with less capability. Firing a couple of missiles at DG (and missing) in this context is a nothingburger event in terms of the going forward strategic threat to the UK of Iran. I'd say the bigger delta is the higher risk of terrorist violence against us in coming years.
And when they dont miss? Or fire them at Fairford?
You react accordingly to various 'ifs'. But my point is that Dan H is being overdramatic in his depiction of how much this particular event has changed the landscape.
Meanwhile, in genuinely good news, the UK is currently running at 12 GW solar generation.
OK, it's midday on a sunshine day, but it's only March, and the UK record (last July) is only 14 GW. Someone must be doing something right.
Unfortunately...
China produces a bit more than 6/7ths of the worlds solar panels. The solar revolution in energy supply comes to a crashing halt if China invades Taiwan and we decide we don't like it.
Something of a problem, though there's nothing intrinsically difficult about making a solar panel- other countries have just decided not to bother.
More importantly, panels are a one-off sale. Once you have them, they carry on generating for decades. Hydrocarbons are a repeat purchase, which is why producers have consumers over a barrel, so to speak.
Somewhat ironically, what you need more than anything to make solar panels is a cheap source of energy.
If you tether yourself to an incontinent donkey you're going to get showered. To the great British public Starmer has joinied Trumps madcap army.. The fact that he's been assigned the job of cleaning the toilets just makes us look worse.
Would Carney or Macron have volunteered?
You are facing down an economic event of Biblical proportions thanks to Trump and Bibi's ghost. I can't see that doing nothing to defend access to the straits is an option. How to strategize that without loss of military personnel is quite the conundrum.
As John McDonnell said it starts with an acorn and before you know it you're facing an oak tree.
John McDonnell is a stain on the Labour Party.
Gutless coward like Corbyn, Abbott, Long Bailey, Burgeon.
They cannot be allowed to regain influence. Should have been binned off long ago.
Really? You encourage me to leave and join the Greens, after 13 years in Parliament (not a member of any pressure group or consistently left-wing) and 50 years in the party, though I'm waiting for the local elections and any aftermath before deciding. Defining a party by exclusion is ultimately self-defeating, not least as once you start you end up excluding moderate people who disagree with you on anything.
I joined the Geens this week. I don't agree with every policy, but they are a breath of fresh air compared to the legacy parties.
If enough people vote Green we can look forward to another couple of decades of right wing Government. Not that this current lot have been anything other than continuity Sunak.
Zack does scare me as someone so far out of his depth but with an over confidence that verges on the cavalier.
If enough people vote Green, we get a Green government, which although not "right-wing" would be authoritarian.
If you tether yourself to an incontinent donkey you're going to get showered. To the great British public Starmer has joinied Trumps madcap army.. The fact that he's been assigned the job of cleaning the toilets just makes us look worse.
Would Carney or Macron have volunteered?
You are facing down an economic event of Biblical proportions thanks to Trump and Bibi's ghost. I can't see that doing nothing to defend access to the straits is an option. How to strategize that without loss of military personnel is quite the conundrum.
Trump wants to stop and declare victory. Iran wants him to stop so they can declare victory. So I see a Stop coming soon. Certainly hope so. After that, who knows, probably a lasting mess, but I'm keen to reach that stage. Having no plan didn't stop him starting the war and by the same token it shouldn't stop him stopping it. Going to war with no plan and then not stopping until you do have a plan is a recipe for ongoing mayhem. It's madness. Esp since it becomes harder to plan things once conflict has commenced. So c'mon Donald, turn a bug into a feature and just stop 'obliterating' Iran and move on to Cuba or more pretend Ukraine talks or fixing the midterms or whatever. Just be you.
There's no point in anyone providing plans for Trump as he has neither the patience or fixity of purpose to see any through.
It all makes sense if you think of his Presidency like a reality TV show.
Meanwhile, in genuinely good news, the UK is currently running at 12 GW solar generation.
OK, it's midday on a sunshine day, but it's only March, and the UK record (last July) is only 14 GW. Someone must be doing something right.
Unfortunately...
China produces a bit more than 6/7ths of the worlds solar panels. The solar revolution in energy supply comes to a crashing halt if China invades Taiwan and we decide we don't like it.
Something of a problem, though there's nothing intrinsically difficult about making a solar panel- other countries have just decided not to bother.
More importantly, panels are a one-off sale. Once you have them, they carry on generating for decades. Hydrocarbons are a repeat purchase, which is why producers have consumers over a barrel, so to speak.
Somewhat ironically, what you need more than anything to make solar panels is a cheap source of energy.
With regional electricity pricing Scotland would become a great place to manufacture solar panels, excepting days with high pressure.
Give credit to Iran here. Lobbing an IRBM at Diego Garcia is showing just how not demolished they are.
Trump now his two choices. The forever war. Or the everyone laughing at Trump forever capitulation.
Saw someone, somewhere, make the point that the humiliation of the US in this war shows that they would not be able to prevent China from conquering Taiwan (whether Taiwan would be able to is a separate question).
In this way Trump's humiliation over Iran in March 2026 mirrors Biden's humiliation over the fall of Kabul in summer 2021, which arguably convinced Putin the US wouldn't actively oppose an invasion of Ukraine (and in that he was right - Biden's response was to offer evacuation help to Zelensky, so Putin's misjudgement was of Zelensky and Ukraine, not Biden and the US).
I'm tentatively penciling in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan for just after Chinese New Year 2027. As a bonus the US will be bitterly divided over the outcome of the midterms, one way or another.
I cannot imagine a better window of opportunity for Xi.
Does any country other than China manufacture solar panels?
Xi would be learning precisely the wrong lesson. Ukraine and Iran both illustrate the folly of a country, no matter how powerful, attempting to win a war that for them is one of choice, but for the target is existential.
If China thinks the lesson from this is that Taiwan would be a walkover then it’s less strategically intelligent than we thought.
The thing is China is still, mostly, Xi. And Xi wants to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. And Xi is an old man in a hurry. And it's a very human failing to rationalise as possible, even likely, what you want to happen.
I think it's definitely a mistake to assume that the people involved will make optimal choices.
What this shows is that if Xi wants regime change in Taiwan it needs Chinese groundtroops which means Chinese body bags. US and Israeli strikes alone are not removing the Iranian regime.
Even then it is not guaranteed, Putin has sent groundtroops into Ukraine but still only captured about a quarter of the country for Russia
If modern warfare proves anything it is that if you’re the defending side, and you have no choice but to fight, you have some big advantages over the attacker. You don’t need to secure total victory, you just need to hurt the enemy until they stop.
TBF, you could make a reasonable case that was the lesson of the Battles of Verdun and the Somme.
And it was the lesson the French drew in building the Maginot Line...
I am not sure that is the lesson of those battles.
At Verdun the German plan was to take the fortress and then the French would exhaust themselves trying to retake what was more a prestige asset rather than a strategic one. In that drawn out battle it was mainly the French attacking and the Germans attriting them.
At the Somme the Geermans shifted from a fixed stronghold system of defence into a more dynamic mobile defence of lightly held forward trenches then counterattack
At Passchendale the British Imperial forces countered what they had struggled with at the Somme by moving to "bite and hold" rather than attempting a break through. They would take the forward German trenches then prepare for the counter attack and take defenders advantage.
In 1918 the Germans evolved the "Schosstruppen" approach of bypassing strongpoints and the Imperial forces moved to much more coordinated combined arms approaches with air, artillery, tanks and infantry closely co ordinated, thereby breaking the German Army in the battles of the 100 days, even breaking through the Hindenburg line fairly quickly.
The image of General Melchett is a powerful myth, but at vast cost both armies had figured out how to win battles.
We largely forgot these lessons by 1940 of course.
The last bit isn't true. After the failure of 1940 most British battles were essentially 1918 style battles. Surprise, hurricane bombardment, even creeping barrages. Monty basically re ran the hundred days.
Yes, Monty's successful battles (El Alamein, D day) were bassically 1918 revisited. When he tried something different like Market Garden it was a major defeat.
What we failed to do in the interwar period was to do what the Germans realised. Schosstruppen plus careful combined arms integration was how the Germans rampaged across europe in 39-41. They did not have superior tanks or aircraft in either quality or numbers, but did have the winning formula for restoring war of manouvre.
Patton was the only commander who really got the formula on the western front, with several Soviet generals getting it too. Bagration was perhaps the finest example there.
I think the Soviets success was also down to a complete disregard for the lives of the soviet troops. Market Garden was a defeat, by only just. Allied ability to deliver ran behind the imagination. If all the troops had been dropped at Arnhem on day 1 it would have been a success.
Yes Montgomery made mistakes certainly but his tactical concept of Market Garden was entirely correct and he can hardly be blamed for the numerous failures of others in the detailed planning of the operation. Such as planning for drops no less than 7 miles from the key Arnhem bridge, an initial lack of urgency in pushing those forces into Arnhem, ignoring the railway bridge, far too long a timescale for drops, prioritising dropping HQ troops over combat troops, failure to up the quota of anti tank weapons because prior intelligence was ignored, misuse of the Polish paratroops etc etc plus a big slice of bad luck (fog over airfields in England.) Those mistakes were all attributable to his subordinates such as Browning and Urquhart and had even a couple of them not been made Market Garden would have succeeded. Montgomery had every right to expect that it would.
Montgomery's strategic concept of concentrating allied resources for a single thrust to the Ruhr rather than dispersing effort across a 400 mile front is also now generally accepted as having been correct and would probably have got the allies over the Rhine in 1944 regardless of Market Garden. That strategy was frustrated by Eisenhower who chose to appease Bradley and Patton.
So we were let down by the Yanks let again. Nearly 3 years late when they finally entered WW1. Over 2 years late before entering WW2 (and even after Pearl Harbour they might well not have declared war on Germany had Hitler not declared war on them first.) And then cocking up at the end of WW2 to prolong its length in 1944 and then leaving the Russians to take Berlin in 1945 against Churchill's urging. The present charlatan in the White House can throw all the insults he likes but we know who really let down who.
More simply, the operation was planned unaware that the Germans had parked one of its crack panzer divisions there for some R&R, and by the time aerial reconnaissance identified the tanks parked along the planned route, too much had been invested in the operation for anyone senior enough to be able recognise the risks and change decisions that had already been made. Disregarding the contrary intelligence was the politically expedient route, and hence the operation went ahead and failed its principal objective.
The nation with the strongest interest in reopening the strait, and with the military power to be able to try, is of course China.
If the US were to wash its hands of the disaster it has precipitated, then that leaves a vacuum which they might fill. And the "nations don't have allies, just interests" crowd might just start thinking about making common cause with them.
The Chinese leadership is evil, but rational. You can deal with them. The US leadership is evil, and insane.
I don't think the Chinese or Iranian leadership are comparable to the US leadership in the evil stakes.
Trump is breaching boundaries and taboos he never should have in a Western country, which shocks us to the core, but his regime isn't totalitarian.
A treacherous friend is a greater evil than a visible enemy.
The nation with the strongest interest in reopening the strait, and with the military power to be able to try, is of course China.
If the US were to wash its hands of the disaster it has precipitated, then that leaves a vacuum which they might fill. And the "nations don't have allies, just interests" crowd might just start thinking about making common cause with them.
The Chinese leadership is evil, but rational. You can deal with them. The US leadership is evil, and insane.
I don't think the Chinese or Iranian leadership are comparable to the US leadership in the evil stakes.
Trump is breaching boundaries and taboos he never should have in a Western country, which shocks us to the core, but his regime isn't totalitarian.
We believed that the community of interests based on the Atlantic Charter was an alliance of principles, and that our common values mattered. Trump has rejected those common values in favour of a narrow, purely American self interest. From the European point of view, if you had a choice of two offers, one from the USA and one from China, our community of values would have always chosen America. Now, given the United States refuses to accept that community, the alliance is effectively over. Worse, many of the decisions that Trump has taken have not only been taken with no reference to the NATO alliance, several of them have in fact been directly hostile to the interests of the Europeans. In fact Trump has made comments, such as his wish to destroy the Lloyds of London insurance market that are directly contrary to our own national interests. His insults to our PM are simply not acceptable in any forum, while his despicable hostility to Ukraine and his pro Moscow, pro Orban stance is a direct challenge to the interests of the EU.
The abject incompetence of the attack on Iran gives us a chance to haul in the USA in the short term but if we fail to put some restraint on Trump, then the USA not only ceases to be any kind of ally, but becomes instead a direct strategic competitor. Under such circumstances, we start to make deals that no longer reference a community of interests which no longer holds, but instead we will start to aim to do deals that weaken the American threat. In fact, whatever happens in Iran now, the Europeans have no choice- we can no longer rely on American weapons or political support. We will need to rearm and face the challenge not just of China, but the USA too and that is the irrevocable change that Trump's treachery has caused. When Putin goes, there will be a scramble to get Russia onside- and while that could still be a while off, we already see a conflict of interests- the US wants to keep Russia strong enough to challenge China, even if Putinism is still in the saddle, Europe could only work with Russia after Putin and his system have gone.
Trump will be remembered with horror, but his poisonous legacy will probably remain.
Incidentally, re the Trump-Mandelson-Epstein connection: two of the children accusing Trump of abuse in the files have boys names. The full files are, of course, not yet released, but the accusations against Trump in the materials that have been released show a man of almost limitless depravity, especially since it appears that several of the victims seem to have met mysterious deaths.
"Trump has rejected those common values in favour of a narrow, purely American self interest."
It is way narrower than that. He is in favour of a very narrow, purely Trump Crime Family self interest.
You think he gives a toss about his voters? About the US military? About those bozos wearing his MAGA hats?
Can someone explain how a direct attack on UK territory, one that drastically alters the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies, is not something the Government thinks should be shared with the British people or Parliament.
Because it doesn't drastically alter the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies.
There you go, Dan. Your wish, my command.
Diego Garcia is 4000km from Iran. Aside from it being an Iranian attack on UK territory, this means we now have the first direct evidence Iran has missiles capable of hitting most of Europe, including the UK
So what. They're thrashing about in response to being bombed to smithereens by the US and Israel. Once this conflagration is over they'll still be what they were beforehand, an enemy of (in descending order) Israel, the US, the UK, the West, but with less capability. Firing a couple of missiles at DG (and missing) in this context is a nothingburger event in terms of the going forward strategic threat to the UK of Iran. I'd say the bigger delta is the higher risk of terrorist violence against us in coming years.
The fact that Iran has ballistic missiles and is prepared to use them is neither new, nor a nothingburger. It is also why it must never be permitted to obtain nuclear weapons and why this is an entirely just war.
An successor to the 2015 deal (foolishly cancelled by Trump) was eminently doable. The US, egged on by Israel, chose war instead. War should be a last resort, not a matter of choice and opportunity. The havoc being wreaked now, physical and economic, shows why. I happen to be on the less bearish end of expectations of how long it will go on for, but regardless of outcome and consequences it's about as far from "entirely just" as you can get. Ukraine's defence against Russia is a just war. This one is unnecessary, reckless, and (sorry to use a dirty word) illegal.
Can someone explain how a direct attack on UK territory, one that drastically alters the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies, is not something the Government thinks should be shared with the British people or Parliament.
Because it doesn't drastically alter the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies.
There you go, Dan. Your wish, my command.
Diego Garcia is 4000km from Iran. Aside from it being an Iranian attack on UK territory, this means we now have the first direct evidence Iran has missiles capable of hitting most of Europe, including the UK
We need to get this through our head: the Iranian regime doesn't "care" whether we officially support Trump or not; it's going to attack us anyway. It would even if we denied every base to the USA.
We are dealing with religious fanatics who believe the UK is secretly behind everything, including Trump's latest moves, and it's in our interests that it's defeated and taken out.
The nation with the strongest interest in reopening the strait, and with the military power to be able to try, is of course China.
If the US were to wash its hands of the disaster it has precipitated, then that leaves a vacuum which they might fill. And the "nations don't have allies, just interests" crowd might just start thinking about making common cause with them.
The Chinese leadership is evil, but rational. You can deal with them. The US leadership is evil, and insane.
I don't think the Chinese or Iranian leadership are comparable to the US leadership in the evil stakes.
Trump is breaching boundaries and taboos he never should have in a Western country, which shocks us to the core, but his regime isn't totalitarian.
We believed that the community of interests based on the Atlantic Charter was an alliance of principles, and that our common values mattered. Trump has rejected those common values in favour of a narrow, purely American self interest. From the European point of view, if you had a choice of two offers, one from the USA and one from China, our community of values would have always chosen America. Now, given the United States refuses to accept that community, the alliance is effectively over. Worse, many of the decisions that Trump has taken have not only been taken with no reference to the NATO alliance, several of them have in fact been directly hostile to the interests of the Europeans. In fact Trump has made comments, such as his wish to destroy the Lloyds of London insurance market that are directly contrary to our own national interests. His insults to our PM are simply not acceptable in any forum, while his despicable hostility to Ukraine and his pro Moscow, pro Orban stance is a direct challenge to the interests of the EU.
The abject incompetence of the attack on Iran gives us a chance to haul in the USA in the short term but if we fail to put some restraint on Trump, then the USA not only ceases to be any kind of ally, but becomes instead a direct strategic competitor. Under such circumstances, we start to make deals that no longer reference a community of interests which no longer holds, but instead we will start to aim to do deals that weaken the American threat. In fact, whatever happens in Iran now, the Europeans have no choice- we can no longer rely on American weapons or political support. We will need to rearm and face the challenge not just of China, but the USA too and that is the irrevocable change that Trump's treachery has caused. When Putin goes, there will be a scramble to get Russia onside- and while that could still be a while off, we already see a conflict of interests- the US wants to keep Russia strong enough to challenge China, even if Putinism is still in the saddle, Europe could only work with Russia after Putin and his system have gone.
Trump will be remembered with horror, but his poisonous legacy will probably remain.
Incidentally, re the Trump-Mandelson-Epstein connection: two of the children accusing Trump of abuse in the files have boys names. The full files are, of course, not yet released, but the accusations against Trump in the materials that have been released show a man of almost limitless depravity, especially since it appears that several of the victims seem to have met mysterious deaths.
If you tether yourself to an incontinent donkey you're going to get showered. To the great British public Starmer has joinied Trumps madcap army.. The fact that he's been assigned the job of cleaning the toilets just makes us look worse.
Would Carney or Macron have volunteered?
You are facing down an economic event of Biblical proportions thanks to Trump and Bibi's ghost. I can't see that doing nothing to defend access to the straits is an option. How to strategize that without loss of military personnel is quite the conundrum.
As John McDonnell said it starts with an acorn and before you know it you're facing an oak tree.
John McDonnell is a stain on the Labour Party.
Gutless coward like Corbyn, Abbott, Long Bailey, Burgeon.
They cannot be allowed to regain influence. Should have been binned off long ago.
Really? You encourage me to leave and join the Greens, after 13 years in Parliament (not a member of any pressure group or consistently left-wing) and 50 years in the party, though I'm waiting for the local elections and any aftermath before deciding. Defining a party by exclusion is ultimately self-defeating, not least as once you start you end up excluding moderate people who disagree with you on anything.
For many years on this forum you have been the most interesting and decent poster never turning to foul language or personal abuse and actually provided one of the most gobsmacking and amusing moments in your life and though we are politically a distance apart, your love of animal welfare is very much a cause for our family and the Welsh government's ban on greyhound racing has been well received
You were an excellent MP and a wise advisor and if anyone could persuade me to your views you can
Compare and contrast that with @Brixian59 who makes nastiness an artform and simply just does not understand how much damage he causes for is own political views
Gosh - unexpected compliments are the best! Thank you - and I always read your comments with interest and often appreciation. Long may they continue!
For some balance: you’ve admitted your youth spent as a communist supporter. In any sensible world, that should have disbarred you from any career in mainstream British politics, just as it would for some right-wing youth who spent their time on National Front marches and later fancied a career in the Tory party. But, because of our blind spot when it comes to the abomination of communism, you were allowed to reinvent yourself, sell your soul to New Labour, and serve your time in parliament as one of its foot soldiers. Doubtless, if we dug into your voting record, we would uncover a whole stack of votes you made for things in which you simply don’t believe.
Now, retired from active politics, you’re free to return to putting your principles ahead of keeping your place on the political gravy train.
In the round, far from being a good example, I would suggest you’re an exemplar for much that is wrong with our politics.
The nation with the strongest interest in reopening the strait, and with the military power to be able to try, is of course China.
If the US were to wash its hands of the disaster it has precipitated, then that leaves a vacuum which they might fill. And the "nations don't have allies, just interests" crowd might just start thinking about making common cause with them.
The Chinese leadership is evil, but rational. You can deal with them. The US leadership is evil, and insane.
I don't think the Chinese or Iranian leadership are comparable to the US leadership in the evil stakes.
Trump is breaching boundaries and taboos he never should have in a Western country, which shocks us to the core, but his regime isn't totalitarian.
We believed that the community of interests based on the Atlantic Charter was an alliance of principles, and that our common values mattered. Trump has rejected those common values in favour of a narrow, purely American self interest. From the European point of view, if you had a choice of two offers, one from the USA and one from China, our community of values would have always chosen America. Now, given the United States refuses to accept that community, the alliance is effectively over. Worse, many of the decisions that Trump has taken have not only been taken with no reference to the NATO alliance, several of them have in fact been directly hostile to the interests of the Europeans. In fact Trump has made comments, such as his wish to destroy the Lloyds of London insurance market that are directly contrary to our own national interests. His insults to our PM are simply not acceptable in any forum, while his despicable hostility to Ukraine and his pro Moscow, pro Orban stance is a direct challenge to the interests of the EU.
The abject incompetence of the attack on Iran gives us a chance to haul in the USA in the short term but if we fail to put some restraint on Trump, then the USA not only ceases to be any kind of ally, but becomes instead a direct strategic competitor. Under such circumstances, we start to make deals that no longer reference a community of interests which no longer holds, but instead we will start to aim to do deals that weaken the American threat. In fact, whatever happens in Iran now, the Europeans have no choice- we can no longer rely on American weapons or political support. We will need to rearm and face the challenge not just of China, but the USA too and that is the irrevocable change that Trump's treachery has caused. When Putin goes, there will be a scramble to get Russia onside- and while that could still be a while off, we already see a conflict of interests- the US wants to keep Russia strong enough to challenge China, even if Putinism is still in the saddle, Europe could only work with Russia after Putin and his system have gone.
Trump will be remembered with horror, but his poisonous legacy will probably remain.
Incidentally, re the Trump-Mandelson-Epstein connection: two of the children accusing Trump of abuse in the files have boys names. The full files are, of course, not yet released, but the accusations against Trump in the materials that have been released show a man of almost limitless depravity, especially since it appears that several of the victims seem to have met mysterious deaths.
"Trump has rejected those common values in favour of a narrow, purely American self interest."
It is way narrower than that. He is in favour of a very narrow, purely Trump Crime Family self interest.
You think he gives a toss about his voters? About the US military? About those bozos wearing his MAGA hats?
This makes Trump both easier to buy off - $1bn is a lot for him personally, but peanuts for the US as a whole - and more difficult for democracies in particular to buy off, because we frown at bribery.
If you tether yourself to an incontinent donkey you're going to get showered. To the great British public Starmer has joinied Trumps madcap army.. The fact that he's been assigned the job of cleaning the toilets just makes us look worse.
Would Carney or Macron have volunteered?
You are facing down an economic event of Biblical proportions thanks to Trump and Bibi's ghost. I can't see that doing nothing to defend access to the straits is an option. How to strategize that without loss of military personnel is quite the conundrum.
Trump wants to stop and declare victory. Iran wants him to stop so they can declare victory. So I see a Stop coming soon. Certainly hope so. After that, who knows, probably a lasting mess, but I'm keen to reach that stage. Having no plan didn't stop him starting the war and by the same token it shouldn't stop him stopping it. Going to war with no plan and then not stopping until you do have a plan is a recipe for ongoing mayhem. It's madness. Esp since it becomes harder to plan things once conflict has commenced. So c'mon Donald, turn a bug into a feature and just stop 'obliterating' Iran and move on to Cuba or more pretend Ukraine talks or fixing the midterms or whatever. Just be you.
There's no point in anyone providing plans for Trump as he has neither the patience or fixity of purpose to see any through.
It all makes sense if you think of his Presidency like a reality TV show.
Yep. That (plus the $$$ grift) is the best lens.
Also a worry since he has to keep coming up with the storylines.
If you tether yourself to an incontinent donkey you're going to get showered. To the great British public Starmer has joinied Trumps madcap army.. The fact that he's been assigned the job of cleaning the toilets just makes us look worse.
Would Carney or Macron have volunteered?
You are facing down an economic event of Biblical proportions thanks to Trump and Bibi's ghost. I can't see that doing nothing to defend access to the straits is an option. How to strategize that without loss of military personnel is quite the conundrum.
Trump wants to stop and declare victory. Iran wants him to stop so they can declare victory. So I see a Stop coming soon. Certainly hope so. After that, who knows, probably a lasting mess, but I'm keen to reach that stage. Having no plan didn't stop him starting the war and by the same token it shouldn't stop him stopping it. Going to war with no plan and then not stopping until you do have a plan is a recipe for ongoing mayhem. It's madness. Esp since it becomes harder to plan things once conflict has commenced. So c'mon Donald, turn a bug into a feature and just stop 'obliterating' Iran and move on to Cuba or more pretend Ukraine talks or fixing the midterms or whatever. Just be you.
There's no point in anyone providing plans for Trump as he has neither the patience or fixity of purpose to see any through.
It all makes sense if you think of his Presidency like a reality TV show.
Reality TV is days of nonsense and chaos edited down to an hour of something approximating rationality.
Trump is just non stop chaos and nonsense.
There is no editor to make it make sense. (Unless you count those like Justin Webb.)
I amazed, but I suppose I shouldn't be, at how many people have eagerly lapped up this Diego Garcia nonsense like an XL Bully with a bowl full of Guinness. WMD all over again. The old tunes are the best.
“If I have to be on one side of this MAGA thing, either Trump or Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens and Nick Fuentes, I’ll be with Trump on this one because that’s the other side of MAGA.”
Trump v Carlson is something I can't bring myself to comment on. Just f*ck off, the both of you.
The nation with the strongest interest in reopening the strait, and with the military power to be able to try, is of course China.
If the US were to wash its hands of the disaster it has precipitated, then that leaves a vacuum which they might fill. And the "nations don't have allies, just interests" crowd might just start thinking about making common cause with them.
The Chinese leadership is evil, but rational. You can deal with them. The US leadership is evil, and insane.
I don't think the Chinese or Iranian leadership are comparable to the US leadership in the evil stakes.
Trump is breaching boundaries and taboos he never should have in a Western country, which shocks us to the core, but his regime isn't totalitarian.
We believed that the community of interests based on the Atlantic Charter was an alliance of principles, and that our common values mattered. Trump has rejected those common values in favour of a narrow, purely American self interest. From the European point of view, if you had a choice of two offers, one from the USA and one from China, our community of values would have always chosen America. Now, given the United States refuses to accept that community, the alliance is effectively over. Worse, many of the decisions that Trump has taken have not only been taken with no reference to the NATO alliance, several of them have in fact been directly hostile to the interests of the Europeans. In fact Trump has made comments, such as his wish to destroy the Lloyds of London insurance market that are directly contrary to our own national interests. His insults to our PM are simply not acceptable in any forum, while his despicable hostility to Ukraine and his pro Moscow, pro Orban stance is a direct challenge to the interests of the EU.
The abject incompetence of the attack on Iran gives us a chance to haul in the USA in the short term but if we fail to put some restraint on Trump, then the USA not only ceases to be any kind of ally, but becomes instead a direct strategic competitor. Under such circumstances, we start to make deals that no longer reference a community of interests which no longer holds, but instead we will start to aim to do deals that weaken the American threat. In fact, whatever happens in Iran now, the Europeans have no choice- we can no longer rely on American weapons or political support. We will need to rearm and face the challenge not just of China, but the USA too and that is the irrevocable change that Trump's treachery has caused. When Putin goes, there will be a scramble to get Russia onside- and while that could still be a while off, we already see a conflict of interests- the US wants to keep Russia strong enough to challenge China, even if Putinism is still in the saddle, Europe could only work with Russia after Putin and his system have gone.
Trump will be remembered with horror, but his poisonous legacy will probably remain.
Incidentally, re the Trump-Mandelson-Epstein connection: two of the children accusing Trump of abuse in the files have boys names. The full files are, of course, not yet released, but the accusations against Trump in the materials that have been released show a man of almost limitless depravity, especially since it appears that several of the victims seem to have met mysterious deaths.
"Trump has rejected those common values in favour of a narrow, purely American self interest."
It is way narrower than that. He is in favour of a very narrow, purely Trump Crime Family self interest.
You think he gives a toss about his voters? About the US military? About those bozos wearing his MAGA hats?
This makes Trump both easier to buy off - $1bn is a lot for him personally, but peanuts for the US as a whole - and more difficult for democracies in particular to buy off, because we frown at bribery.
You've clearly never dealt with the planning department of a local council.
They hate the same groups in society as a majority of their voters so as long as you keep the hate going they’ll stay onside even as you enact other policies that will harm them .
If you tether yourself to an incontinent donkey you're going to get showered. To the great British public Starmer has joinied Trumps madcap army.. The fact that he's been assigned the job of cleaning the toilets just makes us look worse.
Would Carney or Macron have volunteered?
You are facing down an economic event of Biblical proportions thanks to Trump and Bibi's ghost. I can't see that doing nothing to defend access to the straits is an option. How to strategize that without loss of military personnel is quite the conundrum.
Trump wants to stop and declare victory. Iran wants him to stop so they can declare victory. So I see a Stop coming soon. Certainly hope so. After that, who knows, probably a lasting mess, but I'm keen to reach that stage. Having no plan didn't stop him starting the war and by the same token it shouldn't stop him stopping it. Going to war with no plan and then not stopping until you do have a plan is a recipe for ongoing mayhem. It's madness. Esp since it becomes harder to plan things once conflict has commenced. So c'mon Donald, turn a bug into a feature and just stop 'obliterating' Iran and move on to Cuba or more pretend Ukraine talks or fixing the midterms or whatever. Just be you.
There's no point in anyone providing plans for Trump as he has neither the patience or fixity of purpose to see any through.
It all makes sense if you think of his Presidency like a reality TV show.
Reality TV is days of nonsense and chaos edited down to an hour of something approximating rationality.
Trump is just non stop chaos and nonsense.
There is no editor to make it make sense. (Unless you count those like Justin Webb.)
If you tether yourself to an incontinent donkey you're going to get showered. To the great British public Starmer has joinied Trumps madcap army.. The fact that he's been assigned the job of cleaning the toilets just makes us look worse.
Would Carney or Macron have volunteered?
You are facing down an economic event of Biblical proportions thanks to Trump and Bibi's ghost. I can't see that doing nothing to defend access to the straits is an option. How to strategize that without loss of military personnel is quite the conundrum.
As John McDonnell said it starts with an acorn and before you know it you're facing an oak tree.
John McDonnell is a stain on the Labour Party.
Gutless coward like Corbyn, Abbott, Long Bailey, Burgeon.
They cannot be allowed to regain influence. Should have been binned off long ago.
Really? You encourage me to leave and join the Greens, after 13 years in Parliament (not a member of any pressure group or consistently left-wing) and 50 years in the party, though I'm waiting for the local elections and any aftermath before deciding. Defining a party by exclusion is ultimately self-defeating, not least as once you start you end up excluding moderate people who disagree with you on anything.
I joined the Geens this week. I don't agree with every policy, but they are a breath of fresh air compared to the legacy parties.
If enough people vote Green we can look forward to another couple of decades of right wing Government. Not that this current lot have been anything other than continuity Sunak.
Zack does scare me as someone so far out of his depth but with an over confidence that verges on the cavalier.
If enough people vote Green, we get a Green government, which although not "right-wing" would be authoritarian.
If you tether yourself to an incontinent donkey you're going to get showered. To the great British public Starmer has joinied Trumps madcap army.. The fact that he's been assigned the job of cleaning the toilets just makes us look worse.
Would Carney or Macron have volunteered?
You are facing down an economic event of Biblical proportions thanks to Trump and Bibi's ghost. I can't see that doing nothing to defend access to the straits is an option. How to strategize that without loss of military personnel is quite the conundrum.
As John McDonnell said it starts with an acorn and before you know it you're facing an oak tree.
John McDonnell is a stain on the Labour Party.
Gutless coward like Corbyn, Abbott, Long Bailey, Burgeon.
They cannot be allowed to regain influence. Should have been binned off long ago.
Really? You encourage me to leave and join the Greens, after 13 years in Parliament (not a member of any pressure group or consistently left-wing) and 50 years in the party, though I'm waiting for the local elections and any aftermath before deciding. Defining a party by exclusion is ultimately self-defeating, not least as once you start you end up excluding moderate people who disagree with you on anything.
I joined the Geens this week. I don't agree with every policy, but they are a breath of fresh air compared to the legacy parties.
If enough people vote Green we can look forward to another couple of decades of right wing Government. Not that this current lot have been anything other than continuity Sunak.
Zack does scare me as someone so far out of his depth but with an over confidence that verges on the cavalier.
If enough people vote Green, we get a Green government, which although not "right-wing" would be authoritarian.
It's three weeks into Trump's Iran War and 10 days since he declared victory.
Iran's enriched uranium has not been secured, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by Iran, US sanctions on Iran's oil have been lifted for the first since 1996 and Iran is extending its missile range to record distances.
Comments
Market Garden was a defeat, by only just. Allied ability to deliver ran behind the imagination. If all the troops had been dropped at Arnhem on day 1 it would have been a success.
Frankly, not much other reason to watch it! The only actor you've ever heard of is always the murderer...
The US helping to fund Iran as they’re attacking it !
The Iranians coffers will be approx 14 billion dollars richer after the US lifted sanctions .
Worst US President in history continues.
And there's this:
5. So where does this leave us? Iran is more determined, more motivated, and driven by a growing sense of grievance while retaining roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, with no clear strategy in place to address it.
This is not a stronger strategic position.
https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2035262316351050028
@DPJHodges
Can someone explain how a direct attack on UK territory, one that drastically alters the nature of the Iranian tactical and strategic threat to the UK, Europe and other allies, is not something the Government thinks should be shared with the British people or Parliament.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2035319492901806277
OK, it's midday on a sunshine day, but it's only March, and the UK record (last July) is only 14 GW. Someone must be doing something right.
Anyway, I'm not arguing that an invasion of Taiwan would be sensible or easy, only that the US failure in the war with Iran reduces the deterrence value of the US, making such an invasion a lot more likely, with all the consequences that would follow.
I'm not sure, either, how far Shia/Sunni hostility comes into the mix.
However, the "Ukrainian" that all regime apparatchiks are expected to pretend to speak is the variant specific to the Cherkassy oblast with many Polish loan words and frankly ludicrous neoglisms. Some of them really struggle with it.
Trump is reprehensible, of that there is no doubt. Fucker Carlson is worse. Much worse.
The fact that Fucker has all his marbles and is still that bad is not an "advantage" for us, it is worse.
Its like the old adage that there are 4 types of leaders:
Great leaders are those that combine high competence with high character.
Ineffective leaders are those that combine low competence with high character. Most British PMs lately probably fall into this category.
Failed leaders combine low competence with low character. This is Trump
The most dangerous though are those who combine high competence with low character. To combine corruption with skill. To combine intelligence with a crooked character.
Fucker Carlson is the latter. He is dangerous. More dangerous than Trump.
Взаимопонятны ли русский и украинский языки носителям обоих языков? Например, как человек с ярко выраженным джордийским акцентом разговаривает с человеком с ярко выраженным ливерпульским акцентом? Дополнение: не только акценты, но и слова и фразы, характерные для каждого региона.
Vzaimoponyatny li russkiy i ukrainskiy yazyki nositelyam oboikh yazykov? Naprimer, kak chelovek s yarko vyrazhennym dzhordiyskim aktsentom razgovarivayet s chelovekom s yarko vyrazhennym liverpul'skim aktsentom? Dopolneniye: ne tol'ko aktsenty, no i slova i frazy, kharakternyye dlya kazhdogo regiona.
Ukranian:
Чи є російська та українська мови неясно зрозумілими для носіїв будь-якої з них? Наприклад, коли хтось із сильним акцентом джорді розмовляє з кимось із сильним акцентом скауза? Додайте не лише акценти, а й слова та фрази, характерні для кожної області.
Chy ye rosiysʹka ta ukrayinsʹka movy neyasno zrozumilymy dlya nosiyiv budʹ-yakoyi z nykh? Napryklad, koly khtosʹ iz sylʹnym aktsentom dzhordi rozmovlyaye z kymosʹ iz sylʹnym aktsentom skauza? Dodayte ne lyshe aktsenty, a y slova ta frazy, kharakterni dlya kozhnoyi oblasti.
English:
Are Russian and Ukrainian vaguely intelligible to speakers of either? Like someone with a strong Geordie accent speaking to someone with a strong Scouse accent for example? Edit to add, not just the accents but words and phrases peculiar to each area.
Short answer: further apart then you’d think they would be. Ukranian is actually closer to Polish, but using the Cyrillic alphabet.
There you go, Dan. Your wish, my command.
Now they have merely proved the fact by attacking us directly.
We should be fully engaged in war to enact regime change. Glad you finally agree.
Who is actually in charge of what’s left of the missiles?
These were a pair of previously-unknown 4,000km rockets, how many more do we think they might have?
If there was to be a guess at the delay in the release of the information, it’s that the launch site would have lit up like a Christmas tree at satellite surveillance HQ, and it took 24-48 hours to obliterate the facility there.
Montgomery's strategic concept of concentrating allied resources for a single thrust to the Ruhr rather than dispersing effort across a 400 mile front is also now generally accepted as having been correct and would probably have got the allies over the Rhine in 1944 regardless of Market Garden. That strategy was frustrated by Eisenhower who chose to appease Bradley and Patton.
So we were let down by the Yanks let again. Nearly 3 years late when they finally entered WW1. Over 2 years late before entering WW2 (and even after Pearl Harbour they might well not have declared war on Germany had Hitler not declared war on them first.) And then cocking up at the end of WW2 to prolong its length in 1944 and then leaving the Russians to take Berlin in 1945 against Churchill's urging. The present charlatan in the White House can throw all the insults he likes but we know who really let down who.
https://x.com/lauraloomer/status/2035193038914691469
Have you noticed how @TuckerCarlson times his podcast guests according to President Trump’s foreign policy actions?
When Trump was trying to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war, Tucker promoted Russia and platformed Dugin.
When Trump was trying to get the hostages in Gaza released, Tucker promoted Qatar, which hosts Hamas.
When Trump wanted to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Tucker had the President of Iran on his show and let him lie through his teeth in defense of the Iranian regime.
When President Trump captured Maduro, Tucker opposed it on his show and accused President Trump of spreading “globohomo”.
When President Trump ordered airstrikes on ISIS in Nigeria when they were genociding Christians, Tucker had a lobbyist for Nigeria on his show who said the persecution of Christians in Nigeria is a hoax. He never disclosed the fact that his guest was a lobbyist…
Now that President Trump is set to travel to China to meet with Xi JinPing, Tucker is interviewing a mouthpiece for the CCP who just said the US needs to learn how to “share power with China”.
How much more evidence do you need to see @TuckerCarlson is a subversive foreign agent and a traitor to America who is working to undermine President Trump’s foreign policy and usher in anti-American multi-polarity, which is fundamentally driven by a Communist-Islamic alliance to take down the West?
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
@citrinowicz
Told @NBCNews that the U.S. is funding a war against itself. What we are seeing is really a flawed campaign, not in terms of operational size, but from the strategic preparation for the campaign itself.
The oil price is becoming much more important than eliminating this regime in Iran.
Everybody knows that as long as Iran is controlling the straits, nothing will change in terms of the ability to take out the oil. You cannot beat geography.
https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2035324710326554918
And if we are looking for traitors to America, lets start with Trump himself.
But if you look at foreign policy, from the point of view of (say) a Gulf state, China might start to seem a more reliable partner.
That is a very dangerous dynamic for the western democracies.
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156656/Iran-establishes-safe-shipping-corridor-for-approved-and-paid-for-transits
The intermediary coyly referred to in the article is obviously Russia.
And I wouldn't disparage the US contribution. The US airborne divisions took their bridges at Eindhoven and Nijmegen successfully. We didn't capture our bridge.
China produces a bit more than 6/7ths of the worlds solar panels. The solar revolution in energy supply comes to a crashing halt if China invades Taiwan and we decide we don't like it.
But you can't ignore the change in perceptions of China versus the US. There are not a few countries where the China option is starting to become at least a possibility, while before it was not.
It was much easier for me being there, none of the awkwardness as I’d be asking things in writing on my phone, or they’d speak English if they could. Most of the 20-somethings will have studied some English at school, even if outside Kyiv and Lviv they were surprised a little to come across a Limey.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-ready-let-japanese-vessels-transit-hormuz-kyodo-reports-2026-03-21/?link_source=ta_bluesky_link&taid=69bdf9553cd8160001a0b8da&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=bluesky
He’s almost certainly in the pay of Qatar, when Qatar was funding the mullahs and Hamas, and is probably in the pay of Russia too. If he wades into politics directly then this will all become more obvious.
He’s also potentially implicated in the resignation of Joe Kent. Kent is under investigation for passing classified materials to *someone*…
As for Trump himself, he’s still mostly doing what those who voted for him wanted. The test will be a rise in petrol prices, because if they’re higher as the mid-terms approach than they were at the 2020 election, the GOP will be in trouble.
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2026/03/01/at-last-a-just-war
The abject incompetence of the attack on Iran gives us a chance to haul in the USA in the short term but if we fail to put some restraint on Trump, then the USA not only ceases to be any kind of ally, but becomes instead a direct strategic competitor. Under such circumstances, we start to make deals that no longer reference a community of interests which no longer holds, but instead we will start to aim to do deals that weaken the American threat. In fact, whatever happens in Iran now, the Europeans have no choice- we can no longer rely on American weapons or political support. We will need to rearm and face the challenge not just of China, but the USA too and that is the irrevocable change that Trump's treachery has caused. When Putin goes, there will be a scramble to get Russia onside- and while that could still be a while off, we already see a conflict of interests- the US wants to keep Russia strong enough to challenge China, even if Putinism is still in the saddle, Europe could only work with Russia after Putin and his system have gone.
Trump will be remembered with horror, but his poisonous legacy will probably remain.
Incidentally, re the Trump-Mandelson-Epstein connection: two of the children accusing Trump of abuse in the files have boys names. The full files are, of course, not yet released, but the accusations against Trump in the materials that have been released show a man of almost limitless depravity, especially since it appears that several of the victims seem to have met mysterious deaths.
'Most unsporting of them.'
Thomas Friedman
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/opinion/iran-israel-united-states-hamas.html
And to add to the life admin I also registered the vineyard for VAT this week and have connected up Xero for MTD. Which seems…absolutely fine?
More importantly, panels are a one-off sale. Once you have them, they carry on generating for decades. Hydrocarbons are a repeat purchase, which is why producers have consumers over a barrel, so to speak.
Feck all to do with us as is HK now.
Let them sort it out, solar panels are more important to UK than a spat that's nothing to do with us.
We are not a global player
Sooner we stop trying to be, the better off and safer we will all be.
Delusion of grandeur is exactly that delusion.
Shut the doom merchant right wing oil and gas lobby up.
Sun and Wind
Sun and Wind
Better than rice and chips
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2026/mar/21/battle-of-hastings-discovery-research-england-history?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
If Iran smashes Chagos to rubble destroys the air strip what impact will it have on the UK
Fuck all.
One less bit of useless colonial moneypit rock to worry about
He was probably told at least 24 hours after, the Yanks seemed oblivious to it.
It's a pain in the fucking ass bit of rock with a runway on it.
https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/2035206682175828294
“[Joe Kent] is pushing another version of Anti-Semitism” and “listening to too much Tucker Carlson.”
“It’s, you know, the Jews made us do it.”
“It’s just another version of anti-Semitism.”
“First it was Bibi Derangement Syndrome, then it was they’re colonizers and genocide, which it wasn’t.”
“I don’t think we’re Israel’s bitch. I think we’re Israel’s ally.”
“If I have to be on one side of this MAGA thing, either Trump or Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens and Nick Fuentes, I’ll be with Trump on this one because that’s the other side of MAGA.”
And it keeps getting renwed for another series...
It is way narrower than that. He is in favour of a very narrow, purely Trump Crime Family self interest.
You think he gives a toss about his voters? About the US military? About those bozos wearing his MAGA hats?
We are dealing with religious fanatics who believe the UK is secretly behind everything, including Trump's latest moves, and it's in our interests that it's defeated and taken out.
Sorry.
Now, retired from active politics, you’re free to return to putting your principles ahead of keeping your place on the political gravy train.
In the round, far from being a good example, I would suggest you’re an exemplar for much that is wrong with our politics.
Also a worry since he has to keep coming up with the storylines.
Trump is just non stop chaos and nonsense.
There is no editor to make it make sense.
(Unless you count those like Justin Webb.)
They hate the same groups in society as a majority of their voters so as long as you keep the hate going they’ll stay onside even as you enact other policies that will harm them .
https://x.com/mofauae/status/2035326341596446810
TL:DR F*** off Iran and allow free passage of vessels, or we’ll intervene.
It's three weeks into Trump's Iran War and 10 days since he declared victory.
Iran's enriched uranium has not been secured, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by Iran, US sanctions on Iran's oil have been lifted for the first since 1996 and Iran is extending its missile range to record distances.